@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.123.0 → 0.123.2

package/docs/self-improvement-map.md

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 # The self-improvement map
 
 One loop. Four roles. A proposer catalog of pluggable strategies. A bench rig that
-proves the loop produces real lift. Nothing here is duplicated — it is one engine
+proves the loop produces real lift. Nothing here is duplicated: it is one engine
 pointed at different surfaces. This map exists because the surface count makes it
 *look* like many competing systems when it is one.
 
@@ -26,11 +26,11 @@ product imports the same function. Each generation it does four things:
                               repeat N generations
 ```
 
-## The four roles — keep them separate and the confusion clears
+## The four roles: keep them separate and the confusion clears
 
 | Role | What it is | Plain meaning |
 |---|---|---|
-| **Surface** | a *string* — an agent directive, a `SKILL.md`, a playbook, a memory, a judge rubric | **what** gets improved |
+| **Surface** | a *string*: an agent directive, a `SKILL.md`, a playbook, a memory, a judge rubric | **what** gets improved |
 | **Proposer** | a `SurfaceProposer` (the catalog below) | **how** candidate surfaces are proposed |
 | **Gate** | held-out split + significance (`paretoSignificanceGate` / `heldOutGate` / `defaultProductionGate`) | **did it actually get better**, vs noise |
 | **Judge** | scores a run | **how good** any version is |
@@ -44,7 +44,7 @@ surface; **bench-only proposers** exist solely to be raced inside
 
 | Proposer factory | Surface | Strategy | Role | Notes |
 |---|---|---|---|---|
-| `gepaProposer` | prompt | reflective full-surface rewrite + Pareto frontier | **production default** | consumes trace-analysis findings — see below |
+| `gepaProposer` | prompt | reflective full-surface rewrite + Pareto frontier | **production default** | consumes trace-analysis findings: see below |
 | `fapoProposer` | prompt/config/code | reviewed escalation policy over prompt → parameter → structural proposers | production, benchmark | encodes FAPO's scope + reviewer + prompt-first escalation rules; structural generator is injected |
 | `parameterSweepProposer` | config | JSON config patch/sweep | production, benchmark | middle FAPO level for parameter/config edits such as `retrieval.k`, `temperature`, `max_tokens` |
 | `skillOptProposer` | skill-doc | anchored add/delete/replace patch | production | preserves earlier rules; edit budget = "textual learning rate" |
@@ -58,29 +58,29 @@ Default choice: start with `gepaProposer` for prompt surfaces, add
 `parameterSweepProposer` when config knobs are the likely failure mode, and wrap
 them with `fapoProposer` when evidence should decide when to escalate.
 
-## Trace analysis — what it is and the three places it is used
+## Trace analysis: what it is and the three places it is used
 
 "Trace analysis" is the **evidence layer**: it turns raw OTLP traces into "here is
 exactly *why* the agent failed" (failure clusters → findings). The engine is
 `analyzeRuns()` + the analyst registry (`src/contract/analyze-runs.ts`). It is used in
-three places — this is the answer to "if GEPA does its own thing, what is trace
+three places: this is the answer to "if GEPA does its own thing, what is trace
 analysis *for*?":
 
-1. **Ships to customers** — `analyzeRuns()` → `InsightReport`, the Intelligence product.
-2. **Feeds the proposer** — `gepaProposer` calls `renderAnalystEvidence(ctx.findings,
+1. **Ships to customers**: `analyzeRuns()` → `InsightReport`, the Intelligence product.
+2. **Feeds the proposer**: `gepaProposer` calls `renderAnalystEvidence(ctx.findings,
    ctx.report)` (`src/campaign/proposers/gepa.ts`). GEPA's rewrites are grounded
    in the diagnosis instead of guessing blind. Trace analysis
    **is** on the GEPA side.
-3. **Races HALO** — wrapped as `traceAnalystProposer` so our analysis competes
+3. **Races HALO**: wrapped as `traceAnalystProposer` so our analysis competes
    head-to-head with the external SOTA inside `compareProposers`.
 
 ## Where HALO fits (and why it feels "removed")
 
 `haloProposer` is alive (`src/campaign/proposers/halo.ts`, exported from the campaign
 barrel) but it is **never in the product loop**. It shells out to an *external* engine
-(`halo-engine`) — so the analysis genuinely lives outside this repo; we only wrap it.
+(`halo-engine`): so the analysis genuinely lives outside this repo; we only wrap it.
 
-Its only job is the **bake-off**. HALO's real opponent is **not** `gepaProposer` — it is
+Its only job is the **bake-off**. HALO's real opponent is **not** `gepaProposer`: it is
 `traceAnalystProposer`. `compareProposers` holds the apply step identical (same
 `APPLY_SYSTEM`, same `traces.jsonl`, same held-out scoring) so the only variable is
 **analysis quality: HALO vs ours.** A measuring stick, like a benchmark baseline.
@@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ Its only job is the **bake-off**. HALO's real opponent is **not** `gepaProposer`
 `agent-runtime/bench/src/gepa-refine.ts` runs **this same loop** against a *public
 benchmark* (AppWorld, CAD, …) instead of product data. Why a separate rig:
 
-- On product traces, "+4 lift" can be model noise or a judge flattering itself — no
+- On product traces, "+4 lift" can be model noise or a judge flattering itself: no
   ground truth.
 - On a benchmark the score is **objective and ungameable** (AppWorld runs the agent's
   code against its own unit tests). If a GEPA-optimized directive beats a deliberately
@@ -110,6 +110,6 @@ The code is well-factored; the confusion is narrative:
 - **The real gap is the missing proof, not the design.** The loop kept being proved on
   benchmarks too easy to show value: when a capable model ceilings an extraction task,
   **0 findings fire** and the whole trace-analysis→optimizer apparatus is inert. It
-  earns its keep only on **hard agentic tasks** — which is why the AppWorld REPL run
+  earns its keep only on **hard agentic tasks**: which is why the AppWorld REPL run
   (multi-turn, real tool execution, unbounded turns) is the one that can finally
   separate the evidence-grounded optimizer from baseline.

package/docs/trace-analysis.md

@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ The analyst runs one Ax executor loop and accepts only an explicit structured `f
 ## Deterministic failure coverage (no LLM)
 
 Before (or alongside) the LLM analyst, `OtlpFileTraceStore.getOverview()` returns a
-`DatasetOverview` whose `error_clusters` are computed deterministically — error
+`DatasetOverview` whose `error_clusters` are computed deterministically: error
 spans are grouped by a normalized failure signature (uuids / hex ids / numbers /
 absolute paths / durations collapsed), each cluster carrying its prevalence,
 exemplar `trace_id`/`span_id`, and a verbatim sample. This is a zero-LLM,
@@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ reproducible failure checklist the analyst then explains and closes:
 ```ts
 const overview = await store.getOverview()
 for (const c of overview.error_clusters) {
-  console.log(`${c.trace_count}× ${c.signature} — e.g. trace ${c.exemplar_trace_ids[0]}`)
+  console.log(`${c.trace_count}× ${c.signature}: e.g. trace ${c.exemplar_trace_ids[0]}`)
 }
 ```
 

package/docs/wire-protocol.md

@@ -29,9 +29,9 @@ Both transports talk to identical handlers. If you need a sustained connection (
 
 ## Methods
 
-The current surface is the smallest useful slice. Adding a method is mechanical — see [§Adding a method](#adding-a-method).
+The current surface is the smallest useful slice. Adding a method is mechanical: see [§Adding a method](#adding-a-method).
 
-### `judge` — score content against a rubric
+### `judge`: score content against a rubric
 
 ```http
 POST /v1/judge
@@ -63,7 +63,7 @@ Pass either `rubricName` (built-in) or `rubric` (inline definition). Not both. T
 
 `rubricVersion` is the stable hash of the rubric used. Scores are only comparable across runs when this matches.
 
-### `listRubrics` — discover what's registered
+### `listRubrics`: discover what's registered
 
 ```http
 GET /v1/rubrics
@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ GET /v1/rubrics
 }
 ```
 
-### `version` — server + wire-protocol versions
+### `version`: server + wire-protocol versions
 
 ```http
 GET /v1/version
@@ -102,13 +102,13 @@ GET /v1/version
 }
 ```
 
-`version` matches the package version. `wireVersion` bumps independently — only on breaking request/response schema changes. Package versions can differ across releases as long as `wireVersion` matches.
+`version` matches the package version. `wireVersion` bumps independently: only on breaking request/response schema changes. Package versions can differ across releases as long as `wireVersion` matches.
 
-### `GET /healthz` — liveness
+### `GET /healthz`: liveness
 
 For probing whether a server is up. Returns `{ "status": "ok", "uptimeSec": <number> }`.
 
-### `GET /openapi.json` — full spec
+### `GET /openapi.json`: full spec
 
 Auto-generated from the Zod schemas. This is what code generators consume to produce typed clients in other languages.
 
@@ -168,11 +168,11 @@ echo '{}' | agent-eval rpc listRubrics
 # judge (one-shot)
 echo '{"rubricName":"anti-slop","content":"…"}' | agent-eval rpc judge
 
-# JSONL batch — one request per line
+# JSONL batch: one request per line
 cat requests.jsonl | agent-eval rpc-batch judge > results.jsonl
 ```
 
-Each invocation is one process — Node startup adds ~500 ms. For more than a few calls, stand up a server.
+Each invocation is one process: Node startup adds ~500 ms. For more than a few calls, stand up a server.
 
 ## Clients
 
@@ -182,13 +182,13 @@ Each invocation is one process — Node startup adds ~500 ms. For more than a fe
 
 ## Adding a method
 
-1. **Schema** — define `XRequestSchema` and `XResponseSchema` in `src/wire/schemas.ts`. Every field gets a `.describe()` so docs flow through to OpenAPI.
-2. **Handler** — pure function in `src/wire/handlers.ts`. Throws `WireError` for caller-fixable issues.
-3. **Server route** — `app.post('/v1/x', …)` in `src/wire/server.ts`.
-4. **RPC case** — add `case 'x':` in `dispatchRpc` in `src/wire/rpc.ts`.
-5. **OpenAPI route** — register in `src/wire/openapi.ts` so it shows up in the spec.
-6. **Test** — add to `tests/wire/`. At minimum: schema validation, happy-path, error-path.
-7. **Python client** — add a method on `Client` in `clients/python/src/agent_eval_rpc/client.py`, plus pydantic models in `models.py` mirroring the new schemas.
+1. **Schema**: define `XRequestSchema` and `XResponseSchema` in `src/wire/schemas.ts`. Every field gets a `.describe()` so docs flow through to OpenAPI.
+2. **Handler**: pure function in `src/wire/handlers.ts`. Throws `WireError` for caller-fixable issues.
+3. **Server route**: `app.post('/v1/x', …)` in `src/wire/server.ts`.
+4. **RPC case**: add `case 'x':` in `dispatchRpc` in `src/wire/rpc.ts`.
+5. **OpenAPI route**: register in `src/wire/openapi.ts` so it shows up in the spec.
+6. **Test**: add to `tests/wire/`. At minimum: schema validation, happy-path, error-path.
+7. **Python client**: add a method on `Client` in `clients/python/src/agent_eval_rpc/client.py`, plus pydantic models in `models.py` mirroring the new schemas.
 
 The pattern is mechanical. When the surface grows past ~10 methods, swap the hand-written Python models for `datamodel-code-generator -i openapi.json -o models.py`.
 

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@tangle-network/agent-eval",
-  "version": "0.123.0",
+  "version": "0.123.2",
   "description": "Evaluate and improve AI agents from runs, traces, judges, and feedback. Compare candidates, cluster failures, measure lift, and gate releases.",
   "homepage": "https://github.com/tangle-network/agent-eval#readme",
   "repository": {
@@ -142,6 +142,7 @@
     "test": "vitest run",
     "test:watch": "vitest",
     "typecheck": "tsc --noEmit",
+    "typecheck:examples": "tsc -p tsconfig.examples.json",
     "lint": "biome check src",
     "format": "biome format --write src",
     "openapi": "node dist/cli.js openapi --out dist/openapi.json",

package/dist/chunk-6WX7CBAR.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/contamination-guard.ts","../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * ContaminationGuard — ensures held-out scenarios don't leak into\n * training/prompt paths, and flags model memorization.\n *\n * Three probes:\n *   1. `checkCanaries(output, scenario)` — if the scenario carries a\n *      canary token, it MUST NOT appear in the agent's output.\n *      Canaries are strings that are statistically impossible to\n *      reconstruct from the scenario description alone — so if they\n *      echo back, the model memorized them.\n *   2. `canaryLeakView(store)` — cross-corpus view of every run whose\n *      output contained a canary, with the offending scenario + run.\n *   3. `HoldoutAuditor` — wraps a Dataset and emits a structured error\n *      on any code path that reads holdout scenarios but doesn't flag\n *      `purpose: 'evaluation'`. Keeps engineers honest.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from './dataset'\nimport { llmSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface CanaryLeak {\n  scenarioId: string\n  canary: string\n  runId?: string\n  evidence: string\n}\n\nexport function checkCanaries(output: string, scenarios: DatasetScenario[]): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const s of scenarios) {\n    if (!s.canary) continue\n    if (output.includes(s.canary)) {\n      leaks.push({ scenarioId: s.id, canary: s.canary, evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary) })\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary: tests the AGENT, not the eval grep.\n *\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` PRESENT in output ⇒ AGENT EMITTED BAD CONTENT ⇒ LEAK.\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` ABSENT from output ⇒ AGENT HELD THE LINE       ⇒ PASS.\n *\n * Use when running known-bad-prompt scenarios against the agent under\n * test and you want to know if the agent misbehaved. The classical\n * {@link checkCanaries} / {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries}\n * test whether the eval check fires when the bad output is forced\n * into the eval flow — different question, different answer.\n *\n * Pattern resolution order (first match wins):\n *   1. `scenario.forbiddenPattern` — if it parses as `/body/flags`,\n *      treated as a regex; otherwise a literal substring.\n *   2. `scenario.canary` — literal substring fallback so the helper\n *      works on existing scenario fixtures.\n *\n * Returns `null` when nothing forbidden was found OR the scenario\n * declared no pattern.\n */\nexport function checkBehavioralCanary(\n  output: string,\n  scenario: DatasetScenario,\n): CanaryLeak | null {\n  const pattern = scenario.forbiddenPattern ?? scenario.canary\n  if (!pattern) return null\n  const hit = matchForbidden(output, pattern)\n  if (!hit) return null\n  return {\n    scenarioId: scenario.id,\n    canary: pattern,\n    evidence: excerpt(output, hit),\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary over many (scenario, output) pairs. Sibling to\n * {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries} — same idea\n * (run-many → report) but the question being answered is \"did the\n * AGENT misbehave?\" rather than \"did the EVAL grep fire?\".\n *\n * Returns one `CanaryLeak` per pair where the agent's output\n * contained its scenario's `forbiddenPattern` (or `canary` fallback).\n */\nexport function runBehavioralCanaries(\n  cases: Array<{ scenario: DatasetScenario; output: string; runId?: string }>,\n): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const c of cases) {\n    const leak = checkBehavioralCanary(c.output, c.scenario)\n    if (leak) leaks.push({ ...leak, runId: c.runId ?? leak.runId })\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Resolve a forbidden-pattern string to the matched substring inside\n * `output`. `/body/flags` notation is interpreted as a regex; anything\n * else is a literal substring.\n */\nfunction matchForbidden(output: string, pattern: string): string | null {\n  const re = tryParseRegex(pattern)\n  if (re) {\n    const m = output.match(re)\n    return m && m[0].length > 0 ? m[0] : null\n  }\n  return output.includes(pattern) ? pattern : null\n}\n\nfunction tryParseRegex(pattern: string): RegExp | null {\n  if (pattern.length < 2 || pattern[0] !== '/') return null\n  const last = pattern.lastIndexOf('/')\n  if (last <= 0) return null\n  const body = pattern.slice(1, last)\n  const flags = pattern.slice(last + 1)\n  if (!/^[gimsuy]*$/.test(flags)) return null\n  try {\n    return new RegExp(body, flags)\n  } catch {\n    return null\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Scan the LLM-output history in a corpus; returns every case where a\n * canary from a known scenario appeared in agent output. Pass the full\n * set of scenarios whose canaries you care about (typically the whole\n * held-out slice).\n */\nexport async function canaryLeakView(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  scenarios: DatasetScenario[],\n): Promise<CanaryLeak[]> {\n  const targets = scenarios.filter((s) => !!s.canary)\n  if (targets.length === 0) return []\n  const spans = await llmSpans(store)\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const span of spans) {\n    const output = span.output ?? ''\n    for (const s of targets) {\n      if (s.canary && output.includes(s.canary)) {\n        leaks.push({\n          scenarioId: s.id,\n          canary: s.canary,\n          runId: span.runId,\n          evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary),\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\nexport class HoldoutAuditor {\n  private scenarios: DatasetScenario[]\n  private accessLog: Array<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> = []\n\n  constructor(scenarios: DatasetScenario[]) {\n    this.scenarios = scenarios\n  }\n\n  /** Retrieve a holdout scenario for a declared purpose. Non-'evaluation' throws. */\n  get(scenarioId: string, purpose: 'evaluation' | 'debugging'): DatasetScenario {\n    if (purpose !== 'evaluation' && purpose !== 'debugging') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `HoldoutAuditor.get: purpose must be 'evaluation' or 'debugging', got ${purpose}`,\n      )\n    }\n    const s = this.scenarios.find((x) => x.id === scenarioId)\n    if (!s) throw new Error(`holdout scenario \"${scenarioId}\" not found`)\n    this.accessLog.push({ scenarioId, purpose, at: Date.now() })\n    return s\n  }\n\n  getAccessLog(): ReadonlyArray<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> {\n    return this.accessLog\n  }\n}\n\nfunction excerpt(source: string, needle: string): string {\n  const at = source.indexOf(needle)\n  if (at < 0) return ''\n  const start = Math.max(0, at - 30)\n  const end = Math.min(source.length, at + needle.length + 30)\n  return (start > 0 ? '…' : '') + source.slice(start, end) + (end < source.length ? '…' : '')\n}\n","/**\n * # `analyzeRuns()` — turn a set of agent runs into an actionable decision packet.\n *\n * Wires the substrate's statistical, calibration, clustering, Pareto, and\n * release-confidence primitives into one `InsightReport`. Two top-level\n * entry points use this function:\n *\n *   - `selfImprove()` calls it on the campaign output to attach a packet\n *     to every run.\n *   - Consumers with observed `RunRecord[]` (production traces, gold\n *     corpora, approve/reject tables) call it directly via `analyzeRuns()`\n *     for analysis without a closed loop.\n *\n * Every section is opt-in based on what the input data supports — the\n * function never invents signal. If runs carry no judge scores, `judges`\n * is empty. If there's no baseline/candidate split, `lift` is undefined.\n * If no `analyst` is wired, `failureClusters` is undefined.\n *\n * The `recommendations` array is the human-readable layer; everything\n * else is the evidence backing each recommendation.\n */\n\nimport type { AnalystRegistry } from '../analyst/registry'\nimport type { AnalystFinding } from '../analyst/types'\nimport { checkCanaries } from '../contamination-guard'\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from '../dataset'\nimport { summarizeBackendIntegrity } from '../integrity/backend-integrity'\nimport { type RunRecord, type RunTokenUsage, resolveRunCostProvenance } from '../run-record'\nimport {\n  cohensD,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedMde,\n  pairedTTest,\n  pearsonR,\n  requiredSampleSize,\n  spearmanR,\n} from '../statistics'\nimport { type ParetoFigureSpec, paretoChart } from '../summary-report'\n\nimport type {\n  CostProvenanceSummary,\n  ExecutionInsight,\n  FailureClusterInsight,\n  FailureModeTally,\n  InsightReport,\n  InterRaterInsight,\n  JudgeInsight,\n  LiftInsight,\n  MetricDelta,\n  OutcomeCorrelationInsight,\n  PriorPeriodComparison,\n  Recommendation,\n  ScalarDistribution,\n  TokenUsageInsight,\n} from './insight-report'\n\n// ── Public API ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {\n  /** The runs to analyze. */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  /** Which split to score against when reading composite from RunOutcome.\n   *  Default: holdout when ANY run has a `holdoutScore`, else search. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto'\n  /** Pairwise analysis configuration. When both `baselineCandidateId` and\n   *  `candidateCandidateId` are present, lift is computed on paired\n   *  (experimentId, seed) tuples shared between the two sides. */\n  baselineCandidateId?: string\n  candidateCandidateId?: string\n  /** Canary scenarios — checked against every run's raw output for\n   *  holdout contamination. */\n  canaryScenarios?: DatasetScenario[]\n  /** Analyst registry for failure clustering. When omitted, the\n   *  `failureClusters` section is left undefined. */\n  analyst?: AnalystRegistry\n  /** Downstream outcome metric per run (e.g. engagement rate, approval\n   *  rate, downstream pass rate). When present, the report includes\n   *  `outcomeCorrelation` + a simple linear reward model fit. */\n  outcomeSignal?: {\n    metric: string\n    valueByRunId: Record<string, number>\n  }\n  /** Multi-rater feedback for inter-rater agreement. Each entry is one\n   *  rater's score for one run. Two or more raters → kappa + disagreement\n   *  triage list. */\n  raterScores?: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>\n  /** Number of histogram bins for distributional summaries. Default 12. */\n  histogramBins?: number\n  /** Decision threshold — the smallest composite lift the caller cares\n   *  about. Used by the recommendations engine to call ship vs hold.\n   *  Default 0.02. */\n  decisionThreshold?: number\n  /** Optional prior-period runs. When set, the report includes\n   *  `priorPeriodComparison` with per-metric Welch-CI deltas and\n   *  recommendations fire on statistically significant regressions.\n   *  The two windows do NOT have to share scenarios — the comparison\n   *  is two-sample unpaired (the substrate's `lift` field uses paired\n   *  bootstrap on shared (experimentId, seed) tuples; this is the\n   *  shape for \"this week vs last week\" rather than \"candidate vs\n   *  baseline within a campaign\"). */\n  baselineRuns?: RunRecord[]\n  /** Human-readable label for the baseline window, e.g. \"vs prior 7\n   *  days\", \"vs v3.1 release\". Surfaces in recommendations + UI. */\n  baselineLabel?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SummarizeExecutionOptions {\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  histogramBins?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ExecutionReport {\n  execution: ExecutionInsight\n  costProvenance: CostProvenanceSummary\n}\n\n/** Summarize runtime facts without interpreting task quality or promotion readiness. */\nexport function summarizeExecution(opts: SummarizeExecutionOptions): ExecutionReport {\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  return {\n    execution: computeExecutionInsight(opts.runs, bins),\n    costProvenance: summarizeCostProvenance(opts.runs),\n  }\n}\n\nexport async function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport> {\n  const runs = opts.runs\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  const threshold = opts.decisionThreshold ?? 0.02\n  const split = resolveSplit(runs, opts.split ?? 'auto')\n\n  const compositeWithIds = runs\n    .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, score: compositeOf(r, split) }))\n    .filter((p) => Number.isFinite(p.score))\n  const composite = distributionOf(\n    compositeWithIds.map((p) => p.score),\n    bins,\n    compositeWithIds,\n  )\n\n  const perDimension = computePerDimension(runs, bins)\n  const { execution, costProvenance: provenance } = summarizeExecution({\n    runs,\n    histogramBins: bins,\n  })\n  const knownCostRuns = runs.filter((run) => resolveRunCostProvenance(run).kind !== 'uncaptured')\n  const costs = knownCostRuns.map((r) => r.costUsd).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const costDist = distributionOf(costs, bins)\n  const pareto = paretoChart(knownCostRuns, { split })\n  const degraded: { cost?: string; pareto?: string } = {}\n  if (provenance.uncaptured.n > 0) {\n    degraded.cost = diagnoseCostCoverage(runs, provenance)\n  } else if (costs.length === 0 || costs.every((c) => c === 0)) {\n    degraded.cost =\n      runs.length > 0 && runs.every((run) => run.costProvenance !== undefined)\n        ? `all ${runs.length} explicitly observed or estimated USD values are $0`\n        : diagnoseZeroCost(runs)\n  }\n  if (pareto.points.length < 2) {\n    degraded.pareto =\n      pareto.points.length === 0\n        ? 'no candidates — Pareto unavailable'\n        : 'single candidate — Pareto is a single point, not a frontier'\n  }\n  const costQuality = {\n    cost: costDist,\n    pareto,\n    provenance,\n    ...(degraded.cost || degraded.pareto ? { degraded } : {}),\n  }\n\n  const judges = computeJudgeInsights(runs)\n\n  const interRater = opts.raterScores ? computeInterRater(opts.raterScores) : undefined\n\n  const lift = computeLift(runs, opts.baselineCandidateId, opts.candidateCandidateId, split)\n\n  const failureClusters = opts.analyst\n    ? await computeFailureClusters(runs, opts.analyst, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const failureModes = computeFailureModes(runs)\n\n  const contamination = opts.canaryScenarios\n    ? computeContamination(runs, opts.canaryScenarios)\n    : undefined\n\n  const outcomeCorrelation = opts.outcomeSignal\n    ? computeOutcomeCorrelation(runs, opts.outcomeSignal, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const release = buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination)\n\n  const priorPeriodComparison = opts.baselineRuns\n    ? computePriorPeriodComparison(runs, opts.baselineRuns, split, opts.baselineLabel)\n    : undefined\n\n  const recommendations = buildRecommendations({\n    composite,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    failureModes,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    priorPeriodComparison,\n    threshold,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    n: runs.length,\n    execution,\n    composite,\n    perDimension,\n    costQuality,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    release,\n    ...(failureModes ? { failureModes } : {}),\n    ...(priorPeriodComparison ? { priorPeriodComparison } : {}),\n    recommendations,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction computeExecutionInsight(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): ExecutionInsight {\n  const aggregateRows = runs.flatMap((run) => {\n    const usage = aggregateTokenUsage(run)\n    return usage ? [{ usage, costUsd: finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cost_usd') }] : []\n  })\n  const aggregateCosts = aggregateRows.flatMap((row) =>\n    row.costUsd !== undefined ? [row.costUsd] : [],\n  )\n  const modelCounts = new Map<string, number>()\n  let failureRuns = 0\n  let reportedErrorEvents = 0\n  let errorReportingRuns = 0\n  let modelCallRuns = 0\n  let modelCallEvents = 0\n  let modelCallReportingRuns = 0\n\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    modelCounts.set(run.model, (modelCounts.get(run.model) ?? 0) + 1)\n    const modelCalls = run.outcome.raw.llm_span_count\n    if (Number.isFinite(modelCalls)) {\n      modelCallEvents += modelCalls!\n      modelCallReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n    const usage = run.tokenUsage\n    if (\n      (modelCalls ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      usage.input > 0 ||\n      usage.output > 0 ||\n      (usage.cached ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      (usage.cacheWrite ?? 0) > 0\n    ) {\n      modelCallRuns += 1\n    }\n    const errorEvents = run.outcome.raw.error_span_count\n    if (Number.isFinite(errorEvents)) {\n      reportedErrorEvents += errorEvents!\n      errorReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n    if (\n      (run.failureClass !== undefined && run.failureClass !== 'success') ||\n      run.failureMode !== undefined ||\n      (errorEvents ?? 0) > 0\n    ) {\n      failureRuns += 1\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    durationMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.map((run) => run.wallMs),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    queueMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.queueMs !== undefined).map((run) => run.queueMs!),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n      runs.map((run) => run.tokenUsage),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    aggregateUsage: {\n      runs: aggregateRows.length,\n      tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n        aggregateRows.map((row) => row.usage),\n        bins,\n      ),\n      costUsd: distributionOf(aggregateCosts, bins),\n      totalCostUsd: aggregateCosts.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n    models: [...modelCounts.entries()]\n      .map(([model, count]) => ({ model, runs: count }))\n      .sort((left, right) => right.runs - left.runs || left.model.localeCompare(right.model)),\n    modelCalls: {\n      runs: modelCallRuns,\n      events: modelCallEvents,\n      reportingRuns: modelCallReportingRuns,\n    },\n    failures: {\n      runs: failureRuns,\n      fraction: runs.length > 0 ? failureRuns / runs.length : 0,\n      reportedErrorEvents,\n      reportingRuns: errorReportingRuns,\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction summarizeTokenUsage(usages: RunTokenUsage[], bins: number): TokenUsageInsight {\n  const reasoning = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.reasoning !== undefined ? [usage.reasoning] : [],\n  )\n  const cached = usages.flatMap((usage) => (usage.cached !== undefined ? [usage.cached] : []))\n  const cacheWrite = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.cacheWrite !== undefined ? [usage.cacheWrite] : [],\n  )\n  return {\n    input: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.input),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    output: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.output),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    reasoning: distributionOf(reasoning, bins),\n    cached: distributionOf(cached, bins),\n    cacheWrite: distributionOf(cacheWrite, bins),\n    totals: {\n      input: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.input, 0),\n      output: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.output, 0),\n      reasoning: reasoning.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cached: cached.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cacheWrite: cacheWrite.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction aggregateTokenUsage(run: RunRecord): RunTokenUsage | undefined {\n  const input = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_prompt_tokens')\n  const output = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_completion_tokens')\n  const reasoning = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_reasoning_tokens')\n  const cached = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cached_tokens')\n  const cacheWrite = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cache_write_tokens')\n  if (\n    input === undefined &&\n    output === undefined &&\n    reasoning === undefined &&\n    cached === undefined &&\n    cacheWrite === undefined\n  )\n    return undefined\n  return {\n    input: input ?? 0,\n    output: output ?? 0,\n    ...(reasoning !== undefined ? { reasoning } : {}),\n    ...(cached !== undefined ? { cached } : {}),\n    ...(cacheWrite !== undefined ? { cacheWrite } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction finiteRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = run.outcome.raw[key]\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeCostProvenance(runs: RunRecord[]): CostProvenanceSummary {\n  const summary: CostProvenanceSummary = {\n    observed: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    estimated: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    uncaptured: { n: 0 },\n    knownFraction: 0,\n  }\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const cost = resolveRunCostProvenance(run)\n    if (cost.kind === 'uncaptured') {\n      summary.uncaptured.n += 1\n    } else {\n      summary[cost.kind].n += 1\n      summary[cost.kind].totalUsd += cost.usd\n    }\n  }\n  const known = summary.observed.n + summary.estimated.n\n  summary.knownFraction = runs.length > 0 ? known / runs.length : 0\n  return summary\n}\n\nfunction diagnoseCostCoverage(runs: RunRecord[], provenance: CostProvenanceSummary): string {\n  const uncaptured = provenance.uncaptured.n\n  const known = provenance.observed.n + provenance.estimated.n\n  const explicitUncaptured = runs.some((run) => run.costProvenance?.kind === 'uncaptured')\n  if (uncaptured === runs.length && !explicitUncaptured) return diagnoseZeroCost(runs)\n  if (uncaptured === runs.length) {\n    return `USD cost uncaptured for all ${runs.length} runs — no observed or estimated USD values; token and wall-time metrics remain available.`\n  }\n  return `USD cost uncaptured for ${uncaptured}/${runs.length} runs; excluded those rows from cost statistics (${known}/${runs.length} retained: ${provenance.observed.n} observed, ${provenance.estimated.n} estimated).`\n}\n\n/** Model-free failure tally. Keys on the canonical cross-agent\n *  `failureClass` when present, falling back to the free-form `failureMode`\n *  for un-migrated producers — so the cross-fleet vocabulary is used the\n *  moment a producer adopts it, without breaking legacy corpora. Returns\n *  undefined when no run carries either tag. */\n/** Explain a zero-valued cost axis by its root cause, not just \"no signal\".\n *  Two distinct causes blank the axis and need opposite fixes:\n *    - stub-mode (tokenUsage 0/0): the backend never reported real LLM\n *      activity, so cost is unknowable — the fix is upstream (capture usage).\n *    - uncosted (output>0 but costUsd 0): tokens flowed but the model id was\n *      unpriced — the fix is pricing (isModelPriced / resolveModelPricing).\n *  Reuses the backend-integrity summary so the diagnosis stays in lockstep\n *  with the stub/uncosted detectors that gate canonical runs. */\nfunction diagnoseZeroCost(runs: RunRecord[]): string {\n  const integrity = summarizeBackendIntegrity(runs)\n  const { totalRecords, stubRecords, uncostedRecords } = integrity\n  if (totalRecords > 0 && stubRecords === totalRecords) {\n    return `no costUsd values recorded — all ${totalRecords} records are stub-mode (zero token usage). The backend never reported real LLM activity, so cost cannot be computed; verify the backend actually ran before trusting this corpus.`\n  }\n  if (uncostedRecords > 0) {\n    return `no costUsd values recorded — ${uncostedRecords}/${totalRecords} records have token usage but $0 cost (unpriced model). Check isModelPriced(model) for the run's model id and add it to FAMILY_PRICING.`\n  }\n  if (stubRecords > 0) {\n    return `no costUsd values recorded — ${stubRecords}/${totalRecords} records are stub-mode (zero token usage); the remainder reported neither tokens nor cost. Cost axis carries no signal.`\n  }\n  return 'no costUsd values recorded — cost axis carries no signal'\n}\n\nfunction computeFailureModes(runs: RunRecord[]): FailureModeTally[] | undefined {\n  const counts = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    const key = r.failureClass ?? r.failureMode\n    if (key) counts.set(key, (counts.get(key) ?? 0) + 1)\n  }\n  if (counts.size === 0) return undefined\n  const n = runs.length\n  return [...counts.entries()]\n    .map(([mode, count]) => ({ mode, count, share: n > 0 ? count / n : 0 }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.count - a.count || a.mode.localeCompare(b.mode))\n}\n\n// ── Prior-period comparison ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Direction of the metric — does \"higher current\" mean better or worse?\n *  Composite + judge dimensions: higher is better. Cost + duration: lower\n *  is better. The recommendations engine flips the sign before judging\n *  regressed vs improved. */\ntype MetricDirection = 'higher-is-better' | 'lower-is-better'\n\nfunction computePriorPeriodComparison(\n  current: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  windowLabel: string | undefined,\n): PriorPeriodComparison | undefined {\n  if (current.length === 0 || baseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const metrics: Record<string, MetricDelta> = {}\n  const directions: Record<string, MetricDirection> = {}\n\n  const compositeCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  const compositeBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  if (compositeCurrent.length > 0 && compositeBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.composite = welchCompare(compositeBaseline, compositeCurrent)\n    directions.composite = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const costCurrent = knownCostValues(current)\n  const costBaseline = knownCostValues(baseline)\n  if (costCurrent.length > 0 && costBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.cost = welchCompare(costBaseline, costCurrent)\n    directions.cost = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const durCurrent = current.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const durBaseline = baseline.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (durCurrent.length > 0 && durBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.duration = welchCompare(durBaseline, durCurrent)\n    directions.duration = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const tokCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const tokBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (tokCurrent.length > 0 && tokBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.tokenUsage = welchCompare(tokBaseline, tokCurrent)\n    directions.tokenUsage = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  // Per-dimension judge comparisons — only for dimensions present in BOTH\n  // windows. We use perDimMean since per-judge nesting is finicky for\n  // two-sample comparisons across different judge configurations.\n  const dimsCurrent = collectPerDimension(current)\n  const dimsBaseline = collectPerDimension(baseline)\n  for (const dim of Object.keys(dimsCurrent)) {\n    const b = dimsBaseline[dim]\n    const c = dimsCurrent[dim]\n    if (!b || b.length === 0 || !c || c.length === 0) continue\n    metrics[`dim.${dim}`] = welchCompare(b, c)\n    directions[`dim.${dim}`] = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const regressedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const improvedMetrics: string[] = []\n  for (const [name, delta] of Object.entries(metrics)) {\n    if (!delta.significant) continue\n    const dir = directions[name] ?? 'higher-is-better'\n    const better = dir === 'higher-is-better' ? delta.delta > 0 : delta.delta < 0\n    if (better) improvedMetrics.push(name)\n    else regressedMetrics.push(name)\n  }\n\n  return {\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n    ...(windowLabel ? { windowLabel } : {}),\n    metrics,\n    regressedMetrics,\n    improvedMetrics,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction knownCostValues(runs: RunRecord[]): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => resolveRunCostProvenance(run).kind !== 'uncaptured')\n    .map((run) => run.costUsd)\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n}\n\n/** Collect per-dimension values across runs (from outcome.judgeScores.perDimMean). */\nfunction collectPerDimension(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, number[]> {\n  const out: Record<string, number[]> = {}\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    const perDim = r.outcome.judgeScores?.perDimMean\n    if (!perDim) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(perDim)) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      if (!out[dim]) out[dim] = []\n      out[dim].push(value as number)\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Two-sample Welch comparison: unequal-variance t-test + CI on the delta\n *  + Cohen's d (pooled stddev). Significance = p < 0.05 AND |d| >= 0.2. */\nfunction welchCompare(baseline: number[], current: number[]): MetricDelta {\n  const baselineMean = mean(baseline)\n  const currentMean = mean(current)\n  const baselineVar = sampleVariance(baseline, baselineMean)\n  const currentVar = sampleVariance(current, currentMean)\n  const baselineN = baseline.length\n  const currentN = current.length\n  const delta = currentMean - baselineMean\n\n  // Welch standard error\n  const se = Math.sqrt(baselineVar / baselineN + currentVar / currentN)\n  // For 95% CI we use z=1.96 (large-n approximation). Customers running\n  // analyzeRuns will typically have n >= 30; the t-correction is\n  // negligible vs the practical noise floor.\n  const halfWidth = 1.96 * (se > 0 ? se : 0)\n  const ci95: [number, number] = [delta - halfWidth, delta + halfWidth]\n\n  // p-value via normal approximation to the t-statistic.\n  const t = se > 0 ? delta / se : 0\n  const pValue = se > 0 ? 2 * (1 - standardNormalCdf(Math.abs(t))) : 1\n\n  // Cohen's d — pooled stddev.\n  const pooledStddev = Math.sqrt(\n    ((baselineN - 1) * baselineVar + (currentN - 1) * currentVar) /\n      Math.max(1, baselineN + currentN - 2),\n  )\n  const cohensD = pooledStddev > 0 ? delta / pooledStddev : 0\n\n  // Significance: BOTH p < 0.05 AND |d| >= 0.2 (small-effect threshold).\n  const significant = pValue < 0.05 && Math.abs(cohensD) >= 0.2\n\n  return {\n    current: currentMean,\n    baseline: baselineMean,\n    delta,\n    ci95,\n    pValue,\n    cohensD,\n    baselineN,\n    currentN,\n    significant,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction sampleVariance(xs: number[], xsMean: number): number {\n  if (xs.length < 2) return 0\n  let s = 0\n  for (const x of xs) s += (x - xsMean) ** 2\n  return s / (xs.length - 1)\n}\n\n/** Abramowitz & Stegun approximation to Φ(z). Maximum error ~7.5e-8. */\nfunction standardNormalCdf(z: number): number {\n  const a1 = 0.254829592\n  const a2 = -0.284496736\n  const a3 = 1.421413741\n  const a4 = -1.453152027\n  const a5 = 1.061405429\n  const p = 0.3275911\n  const sign = z < 0 ? -1 : 1\n  const x = Math.abs(z) / Math.SQRT2\n  const t = 1 / (1 + p * x)\n  const y = 1 - ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-x * x)\n  return 0.5 * (1 + sign * y)\n}\n\n// ── Composite + split selection ─────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction resolveSplit(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  pref: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto',\n): 'search' | 'holdout' {\n  if (pref !== 'auto') return pref\n  const hasHoldout = runs.some((r) => Number.isFinite(r.outcome.holdoutScore))\n  return hasHoldout ? 'holdout' : 'search'\n}\n\nfunction compositeOf(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number {\n  const primary = split === 'holdout' ? run.outcome.holdoutScore : run.outcome.searchScore\n  if (Number.isFinite(primary)) return primary as number\n  // Fall through to the other split if the preferred one is missing —\n  // analyzeRuns shouldn't refuse to summarise a run just because the\n  // caller asked for the split that wasn't recorded.\n  const alt = split === 'holdout' ? run.outcome.searchScore : run.outcome.holdoutScore\n  return Number.isFinite(alt) ? (alt as number) : Number.NaN\n}\n\n// ── Distribution helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction distributionOf(\n  values: number[],\n  bins: number,\n  withIds?: Array<{ runId: string; score: number }>,\n): ScalarDistribution {\n  if (values.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      n: 0,\n      mean: 0,\n      p50: 0,\n      p95: 0,\n      stddev: 0,\n      min: 0,\n      max: 0,\n      histogram: [],\n    }\n  }\n  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const n = sorted.length\n  const mean = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / n\n  const variance = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / n\n  const stddev = Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const tailRuns = withIds\n    ? [...withIds].sort((a, b) => a.score - b.score).slice(0, Math.min(5, withIds.length))\n    : undefined\n  return {\n    n,\n    mean,\n    p50: percentile(sorted, 0.5),\n    p95: percentile(sorted, 0.95),\n    stddev,\n    min: sorted[0]!,\n    max: sorted[n - 1]!,\n    histogram: histogram(sorted, bins),\n    ...(tailRuns ? { tailRuns } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction percentile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return 0\n  if (sorted.length === 1) return sorted[0]!\n  const idx = (sorted.length - 1) * q\n  const lo = Math.floor(idx)\n  const hi = Math.ceil(idx)\n  if (lo === hi) return sorted[lo]!\n  const w = idx - lo\n  return sorted[lo]! * (1 - w) + sorted[hi]! * w\n}\n\n/** Even-width histogram over the value range. Returns inclusive-lo /\n *  exclusive-hi bins (closed on right for the last bin) compatible with\n *  the substrate's `GainDistributionBin` shape. */\nfunction histogram(sorted: number[], bins: number): ScalarDistribution['histogram'] {\n  if (sorted.length === 0 || bins < 1) return []\n  const min = sorted[0]!\n  const max = sorted[sorted.length - 1]!\n  if (min === max) return [{ lo: min, hi: max, count: sorted.length }]\n  const width = (max - min) / bins\n  const out: ScalarDistribution['histogram'] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < bins; i++) {\n    const lo = min + i * width\n    const hi = i === bins - 1 ? max : lo + width\n    out.push({ lo, hi, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const v of sorted) {\n    const idx = Math.min(bins - 1, Math.floor((v - min) / width))\n    out[idx]!.count++\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction computePerDimension(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): Record<string, ScalarDistribution> {\n  // JudgeScoresRecord pre-aggregates `perDimMean` (mean across judges per\n  // dimension). We collect those means across runs to produce a per-dim\n  // distribution at the corpus level. Consumers who want per-judge\n  // dimension values reach into `perJudge[judgeId][dim]` themselves.\n  const byDim = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(scores.perDimMean ?? {})) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      const arr = byDim.get(dim) ?? []\n      arr.push(value)\n      byDim.set(dim, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, ScalarDistribution> = {}\n  for (const [dim, values] of byDim) out[dim] = distributionOf(values, bins)\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Judge insights ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeJudgeInsights(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, JudgeInsight> {\n  // Each judge's per-run mean is the average of its per-dimension scores\n  // for that run. We aggregate those means across all runs each judge\n  // scored — giving consumers a \"this judge's typical verdict\" reading.\n  const out: Record<string, JudgeInsight> = {}\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores?.perJudge) continue\n    for (const [judgeId, dims] of Object.entries(scores.perJudge)) {\n      const dimValues = Object.values(dims).filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n      if (dimValues.length === 0) continue\n      const judgeMean = dimValues.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / dimValues.length\n      const arr = byJudge.get(judgeId) ?? []\n      arr.push(judgeMean)\n      byJudge.set(judgeId, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  for (const [judgeId, values] of byJudge) {\n    out[judgeId] = {\n      n: values.length,\n      meanScore: values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length,\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Inter-rater agreement ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeInterRater(\n  ratings: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>,\n): InterRaterInsight | undefined {\n  const byRun = new Map<string, Array<{ rater: string; score: number }>>()\n  for (const r of ratings) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(r.score)) continue\n    const list = byRun.get(r.runId) ?? []\n    list.push({ rater: r.rater, score: r.score })\n    byRun.set(r.runId, list)\n  }\n  const raters = new Set(ratings.map((r) => r.rater))\n  const jointlyRated: string[] = []\n  for (const [runId, ratersForRun] of byRun) {\n    const seen = new Set(ratersForRun.map((r) => r.rater))\n    let all = true\n    for (const r of raters) if (!seen.has(r)) all = false\n    if (all) jointlyRated.push(runId)\n  }\n  if (raters.size < 2 || jointlyRated.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const raterList = [...raters].sort()\n  const perPair: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (let i = 0; i < raterList.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < raterList.length; j++) {\n      const a = raterList[i]!\n      const b = raterList[j]!\n      const aScores: number[] = []\n      const bScores: number[] = []\n      for (const runId of jointlyRated) {\n        const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n        const sa = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === a)?.score\n        const sb = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === b)?.score\n        if (sa !== undefined && sb !== undefined) {\n          aScores.push(sa)\n          bScores.push(sb)\n        }\n      }\n      perPair[`${a}::${b}`] = pearsonR(aScores, bScores)\n    }\n  }\n  // Average only the finite pair correlations — a degenerate pair (a single\n  // jointly-rated run, or a rater whose scores are constant) yields NaN and\n  // carries no agreement signal, so it must not drag the mean toward 0.\n  const pairKappas = Object.values(perPair).filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v))\n  const kappa =\n    pairKappas.length === 0 ? 0 : pairKappas.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / pairKappas.length\n\n  const disagreementCases = jointlyRated\n    .map((runId) => {\n      const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n      const scores = ratersForRun.map((r) => r.score)\n      const range = Math.max(...scores) - Math.min(...scores)\n      return { runId, ratings: ratersForRun, range }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => b.range - a.range)\n    .slice(0, 20)\n\n  return {\n    raters: raters.size,\n    jointlyRated: jointlyRated.length,\n    kappa,\n    perPair,\n    disagreementCases,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Lift ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeLift(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  baselineId: string | undefined,\n  candidateId: string | undefined,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): LiftInsight | undefined {\n  let bId = baselineId\n  let cId = candidateId\n  if (!bId || !cId) {\n    // Auto-detect: when exactly two distinct candidateIds appear, treat the\n    // lower-mean side as baseline.\n    const ids = [...new Set(runs.map((r) => r.candidateId))]\n    if (ids.length !== 2) return undefined\n    const [idA, idB] = ids as [string, string]\n    const meanA = mean(runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === idA).map((r) => compositeOf(r, split)))\n    const meanB = mean(runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === idB).map((r) => compositeOf(r, split)))\n    bId = meanA <= meanB ? idA : idB\n    cId = meanA <= meanB ? idB : idA\n  }\n\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === bId)\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === cId)\n  if (baseline.length === 0 || candidate.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  // Pair on (experimentId, seed). When that key doesn't match, fall back\n  // to ordinal pairing — common for fresh runs from the same scenario list.\n  const baselineByKey = new Map(baseline.map((r) => [pairingKey(r), r]))\n  const pairedBaseline: number[] = []\n  const pairedCandidate: number[] = []\n  let usedKeyPairing = false\n  for (const cand of candidate) {\n    const b = baselineByKey.get(pairingKey(cand))\n    if (b) {\n      const bC = compositeOf(b, split)\n      const cC = compositeOf(cand, split)\n      if (Number.isFinite(bC) && Number.isFinite(cC)) {\n        pairedBaseline.push(bC)\n        pairedCandidate.push(cC)\n        usedKeyPairing = true\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  if (!usedKeyPairing) {\n    const n = Math.min(baseline.length, candidate.length)\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n      const bC = compositeOf(baseline[i]!, split)\n      const cC = compositeOf(candidate[i]!, split)\n      if (Number.isFinite(bC) && Number.isFinite(cC)) {\n        pairedBaseline.push(bC)\n        pairedCandidate.push(cC)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  if (pairedBaseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const baselineMean = mean(pairedBaseline)\n  const candidateMean = mean(pairedCandidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate, {\n    confidence: 0.95,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'mean',\n  })\n  const tTest = pairedTTest(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const d = cohensD(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const mde = pairedMde({ nPaired: pairedBaseline.length, power: 0.8, alpha: 0.05 })\n  const requiredN = requiredSampleSize({\n    effect: Math.max(Math.abs(delta), 1e-6),\n    power: 0.8,\n    alpha: 0.05,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ci95: [bootstrap.low, bootstrap.high],\n    pValue: tTest.p,\n    n: pairedBaseline.length,\n    cohensD: d,\n    mde,\n    requiredN,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction pairingKey(r: RunRecord): string {\n  return `${r.experimentId}::${r.seed}`\n}\n\nfunction mean(arr: number[]): number {\n  return arr.length === 0 ? 0 : arr.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / arr.length\n}\n\n// ── Failure clustering ──────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nasync function computeFailureClusters(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  analyst: AnalystRegistry,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): Promise<FailureClusterInsight | undefined> {\n  const failed = runs.filter((r) => compositeOf(r, split) < 0.5 || r.failureMode !== undefined)\n  if (failed.length === 0) return { clusters: [], totalFailures: 0 }\n\n  const clusters = new Map<string, { exemplars: string[]; share: number }>()\n  for (const run of failed) {\n    try {\n      // AnalystRunInputs routes by field name: run-record analysts read\n      // `runRecord`. Any other shape makes every analyst skip with\n      // \"missing input\" and the clusters come back silently empty.\n      const result = await analyst.run(run.runId, { runRecord: run })\n      for (const finding of result.findings as AnalystFinding[]) {\n        const key = finding.area || finding.analyst_id || 'unclassified'\n        const c = clusters.get(key) ?? { exemplars: [], share: 0 }\n        if (c.exemplars.length < 5) c.exemplars.push(run.runId)\n        clusters.set(key, c)\n      }\n    } catch {\n      const c = clusters.get('analyst-error') ?? { exemplars: [], share: 0 }\n      if (c.exemplars.length < 5) c.exemplars.push(run.runId)\n      clusters.set('analyst-error', c)\n    }\n  }\n  const clusterList = [...clusters.entries()].map(([id, c]) => ({\n    id,\n    name: id,\n    share: c.exemplars.length / failed.length,\n    exemplars: c.exemplars,\n  }))\n  clusterList.sort((a, b) => b.share - a.share)\n  return { clusters: clusterList, totalFailures: failed.length }\n}\n\n// ── Contamination ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeContamination(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  canaries: DatasetScenario[],\n): InsightReport['contamination'] {\n  let leaks = 0\n  const details: Array<{ runId: string; canary: string; matched: string }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const output = stringifyOutput(run)\n    if (!output) continue\n    const leaksHere = checkCanaries(output, canaries)\n    for (const leak of leaksHere) {\n      leaks++\n      details.push({ runId: run.runId, canary: leak.canary, matched: leak.evidence })\n    }\n  }\n  return { leaks, holdoutAuditPassed: leaks === 0, details }\n}\n\nfunction stringifyOutput(run: RunRecord): string | undefined {\n  // RunRecord doesn't fix where \"the agent's output\" lives — different\n  // consumers stash it differently. We probe the common shapes: the\n  // outcome.raw map (numeric only by design — unlikely to contain text),\n  // and any string-valued fields tucked under metadata via type casting.\n  // Consumers with bespoke shapes pass canaryScenarios only when they\n  // know their runs carry a stringifiable surface.\n  const metadata = (run as unknown as { metadata?: Record<string, unknown> }).metadata\n  if (typeof metadata?.output === 'string') return metadata.output\n  if (typeof metadata?.text === 'string') return metadata.text\n  return undefined\n}\n\n// ── Outcome correlation + linear reward model ──────────────────────\n\nfunction computeOutcomeCorrelation(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  outcome: { metric: string; valueByRunId: Record<string, number> },\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): OutcomeCorrelationInsight | undefined {\n  const xs: number[] = []\n  const ys: number[] = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const y = outcome.valueByRunId[run.runId]\n    if (y === undefined || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    const x = compositeOf(run, split)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    xs.push(x)\n    ys.push(y)\n  }\n  if (xs.length < 3) return undefined\n\n  const p = pearsonR(xs, ys)\n  const s = spearmanR(xs, ys)\n  const meanX = mean(xs)\n  const meanY = mean(ys)\n  let num = 0\n  let denom = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n    num += (xs[i]! - meanX) * (ys[i]! - meanY)\n    denom += (xs[i]! - meanX) ** 2\n  }\n  const slope = denom === 0 ? 0 : num / denom\n  const intercept = meanY - slope * meanX\n  const ssTot = ys.reduce((a, y) => a + (y - meanY) ** 2, 0)\n  const ssRes = ys.reduce((a, y, i) => a + (y - (intercept + slope * xs[i]!)) ** 2, 0)\n  const r2 = ssTot === 0 ? 0 : 1 - ssRes / ssTot\n\n  return {\n    metric: outcome.metric,\n    n: xs.length,\n    pearson: p,\n    spearman: s,\n    rewardModel: { intercept, slope, r2 },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Release confidence scorecard ───────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction buildReleaseScorecard(\n  composite: ScalarDistribution,\n  lift: LiftInsight | undefined,\n  contamination: InsightReport['contamination'],\n): InsightReport['release'] {\n  // Synthesise a minimal scorecard from the rolled-up signal. The\n  // substrate's `evaluateReleaseConfidence` primitive consumes a richer\n  // input shape that callers can produce by wiring SLO definitions; the\n  // shape here is the contract `selfImprove`/`analyzeRuns` consumers\n  // receive automatically. They can call `evaluateReleaseConfidence`\n  // directly when they want SLO-based axis evaluation.\n  const axes: InsightReport['release']['axes'] = []\n  const liftPass =\n    lift === undefined || lift.ci95[0] > 0\n      ? ('pass' as const)\n      : lift.delta > 0\n        ? ('warn' as const)\n        : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'quality-lift',\n    status: liftPass,\n    detail: lift\n      ? `delta=${lift.delta.toFixed(3)}, CI95=[${lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], n=${lift.n}`\n      : 'no baseline/candidate pair available',\n  })\n  const contamPass =\n    contamination === undefined || contamination.leaks === 0 ? ('pass' as const) : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'contamination',\n    status: contamPass,\n    detail: contamination ? `${contamination.leaks} canary leak(s)` : 'no canaries supplied',\n  })\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'composite-distribution',\n    status: composite.mean >= 0.5 ? 'pass' : composite.mean >= 0.3 ? 'warn' : 'fail',\n    detail: `mean=${composite.mean.toFixed(3)}, p50=${composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${composite.p95.toFixed(3)} over n=${composite.n}`,\n  })\n  const status = axes.some((a) => a.status === 'fail')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : axes.some((a) => a.status === 'warn')\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n  return {\n    status,\n    axes,\n    issues: [],\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Recommendations engine ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\ninterface RecommendationContext {\n  composite: ScalarDistribution\n  judges: Record<string, JudgeInsight>\n  interRater?: InterRaterInsight\n  lift?: LiftInsight\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterInsight\n  failureModes?: FailureModeTally[]\n  contamination?: InsightReport['contamination']\n  outcomeCorrelation?: OutcomeCorrelationInsight\n  priorPeriodComparison?: PriorPeriodComparison\n  threshold: number\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendations(ctx: RecommendationContext): Recommendation[] {\n  const out: Recommendation[] = []\n\n  // Prior-period regressions — highest customer-impact signal when present.\n  // \"Did my last change help?\" with a falsifiable answer.\n  if (ctx.priorPeriodComparison) {\n    const ppc = ctx.priorPeriodComparison\n    const label = ppc.windowLabel ?? 'baseline period'\n    for (const name of ppc.regressedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (!d) continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} regressed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). The regression is statistically significant at p<0.05 with at-least-small effect size.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.improvedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (!d) continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'low',\n        kind: 'ship',\n        title: `${name} improved from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). Statistically significant improvement worth flagging.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Composite-distribution branch. Fires when the overall quality signal is\n  // poor regardless of lift / contamination / clusters — the customer needs\n  // to know they have a problem AND which specific runs to inspect.\n  if (ctx.composite.n > 0) {\n    if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.3) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 5)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below the 0.3 floor — the agent is broken on this corpus`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'} to inspect first: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    } else if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.5) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 3)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below 0.5 — investigate the lower tail before claiming the agent is healthy`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Dominant-failure-mode branch (model-free). A healthy-looking mean can\n  // hide a bimodal corpus — many perfect runs + a cluster of total failures\n  // sharing one named cause. Fires off the structured `failureMode` tags the\n  // harness already recorded, so a single batch with no analyst/baseline\n  // still gets a \"go fix this\" pointer.\n  if (ctx.failureModes && ctx.failureModes.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureModes[0]!\n    if (top.count >= 3 && top.share >= 0.15) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: top.share >= 0.25 ? 'high' : 'medium',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `'${top.mode}' is the dominant failure mode — ${top.count} runs (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of the corpus)`,\n        detail: `The mean composite can look acceptable while one named failure dominates the lower tail. ${top.count} of ${ctx.composite.n} runs failed with '${top.mode}'${ctx.failureModes.length > 1 ? ` (next: '${ctx.failureModes[1]!.mode}' ×${ctx.failureModes[1]!.count})` : ''}. Fix this cause first.`,\n        evidencePath: 'failureModes',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Missing-judges branch. The report can't surface per-dimension or\n  // calibration signal when `outcome.judgeScores` is empty across the\n  // corpus. Tell the customer how to enrich.\n  if (Object.keys(ctx.judges).length === 0 && ctx.composite.n > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'expand-corpus',\n      title: 'No judge scores recorded — per-dimension + calibration insights unavailable',\n      detail:\n        'Records have no `outcome.judgeScores`. To unlock perDimension, judges, and calibration, attach a Judge run during your eval pass and populate `outcome.judgeScores.perJudge[judgeName][dimension] = score`. See `docs/insight-report.md` for the expected shape.',\n      evidencePath: 'judges',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.lift) {\n    const decisive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] > ctx.threshold\n    const inconclusive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] <= ctx.threshold && ctx.lift.ci95[1] > ctx.threshold\n    if (decisive) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'ship',\n        title: `Ship — lift ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)} (95% CI ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}..${ctx.lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)})`,\n        detail: `Holdout lift exceeds threshold ${ctx.threshold} with 95% bootstrap confidence (n=${ctx.lift.n}, p=${ctx.lift.pValue.toFixed(4)}, d=${ctx.lift.cohensD.toFixed(2)}).`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    } else if (inconclusive) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'expand-corpus',\n        title: `Inconclusive — need ~${ctx.lift.requiredN} paired runs (have ${ctx.lift.n}) at current effect size`,\n        detail: `CI straddles threshold. Current MDE at 80% power is ${ctx.lift.mde.toFixed(3)}; observed delta is ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    } else {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'hold',\n        title: `Hold — lift CI lower bound ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)} is at or below threshold ${ctx.threshold}`,\n        detail: `Bootstrap CI provides no statistical evidence the candidate is better. Consider tightening the mutation or expanding the holdout.`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.contamination && ctx.contamination.leaks > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'critical',\n      kind: 'fix',\n      title: `${ctx.contamination.leaks} canary leak${ctx.contamination.leaks === 1 ? '' : 's'} detected`,\n      detail: `Holdout integrity is compromised. The lift number is unreliable until you investigate.`,\n      evidencePath: 'contamination',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.interRater && ctx.interRater.kappa < 0.5) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Inter-rater agreement κ=${ctx.interRater.kappa.toFixed(2)} is below 0.5`,\n      detail: `Raters disagree on what 'good' looks like. Top disagreement cases listed in interRater.disagreementCases — consider a triage meeting or refining the rubric.`,\n      evidencePath: 'interRater',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'investigate',\n      title: `Top failure cluster: ${top.name} (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of failures)`,\n      detail: `${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures} runs failed. The largest cluster groups ${top.exemplars.length} exemplars under '${top.name}'.`,\n      evidencePath: 'failureClusters.clusters[0]',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.outcomeCorrelation && Math.abs(ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman) < 0.3) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Judge scores decoupled from ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} (Spearman ρ=${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman.toFixed(2)})`,\n      detail: `Your judges score what they were trained to score, but it isn't predicting downstream ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric}. Consider retraining the judge against ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} as the gold signal.`,\n      evidencePath: 'outcomeCorrelation',\n    })\n  }\n\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Re-export pareto figure spec for hosted-side rendering ─────────\n\nexport type { ParetoFigureSpec 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-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/rl/off-policy.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Off-policy evaluation primitives.\n *\n * Standard inverse-probability-weighted (IPS), self-normalized\n * importance-weighted (SNIPS), and doubly-robust (DR) estimators for the\n * value of a *target* policy given trajectories collected under a\n * *behavior* policy. This is the canonical RL eval task: \"we have last\n * week's runs, we changed the policy — how would the new one do without\n * re-running?\"\n *\n * The math here is textbook (Dudík, Langford, Li 2011 for DR; Swaminathan\n * & Joachims 2015 for SNIPS) but the *application* to LLM-agent\n * evaluation needs care:\n *\n *   - The \"policy\" is the (prompt, tool config, model snapshot) triple.\n *     Two policies have the same probability over an action *iff* their\n *     LLM call would emit the same token with the same probability —\n *     which is generally unknowable without the model log-probs.\n *   - For LLM agents, propensity scores must be supplied by the caller\n *     (logged in the trace, recovered from token log-probs, or estimated\n *     via a learned propensity model). We do NOT estimate propensity here.\n *   - Doubly-robust requires a Q-function (model-based reward predictor).\n *     We accept any callable; consumers pass either a tabular average,\n *     a regression fit, or a learned reward model.\n *\n * Bias / variance tradeoffs:\n *   - IPS: unbiased; high variance for small overlap, infinite variance\n *     when target has support outside behavior.\n *   - SNIPS: lower variance, slight bias; usually preferred in practice.\n *   - DR: doubly-robust — unbiased if either propensity OR Q-function is\n *     correct. Lowest practical variance when Q is decent. Use this.\n *\n * Caveat the panel will land: on the LLM-agent setting, propensity scores\n * recovered from token log-probs are noisy, the action space is enormous,\n * and overlap is often poor. These estimators are useful but not magic;\n * complement with `replayCampaign` (exact replay where the request hashes\n * match) for high-confidence answers and OPE for the gap.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\n\nexport interface OffPolicyTrajectory {\n  /** Stable id, for traceability through the dataset. */\n  runId: string\n  /** Reward observed under the behavior policy (the realized outcome). */\n  reward: number\n  /**\n   * Behavior-policy probability of the action that was taken. For LLM\n   * agents this is typically `exp(sum(token_log_probs))` over the chosen\n   * trajectory. Must be in (0, 1].\n   */\n  behaviorProb: number\n  /**\n   * Target-policy probability of the same action. For replay-style\n   * counterfactual evaluation this is what the *new* policy would have\n   * assigned to the *old* trajectory. Must be in [0, 1].\n   */\n  targetProb: number\n  /**\n   * Optional model-based reward prediction at the same context. Used by\n   * `doublyRobust`. Set to `null` for IPS-only evaluation.\n   */\n  qHat?: number | null\n}\n\nexport interface OffPolicyEstimate {\n  /** Estimated value of the target policy. */\n  value: number\n  /** Standard error of the estimate. */\n  standardError: number\n  /** Effective sample size (Kong 1992). Lower = more reliance on a few high-weight samples. */\n  effectiveSampleSize: number\n  /** Number of trajectories used. */\n  n: number\n  /**\n   * Diagnostic: maximum importance weight observed. Large values (>>10x\n   * mean) are a red flag — variance is dominated by a few outliers.\n   */\n  maxImportanceWeight: number\n}\n\nexport interface OffPolicyOptions {\n  /**\n   * Cap importance weights at this value (Ionides 2008 truncated IS) to\n   * trade unbiasedness for variance reduction. Default `Infinity` (no cap).\n   * Set e.g. `10` for stable estimates when the policies are close.\n   */\n  weightCap?: number\n  /** Reward clipping range. Default `[0, 1]`. */\n  rewardClip?: { low: number; high: number }\n}\n\n/**\n * Inverse Probability Weighting (Horvitz-Thompson). Unbiased estimator\n * of E[reward under target policy]. Variance scales with the spread of\n * target/behavior ratios.\n */\nexport function inverseProbabilityWeighting(\n  trajectories: OffPolicyTrajectory[],\n  opts: OffPolicyOptions = {},\n): OffPolicyEstimate {\n  const cap = opts.weightCap ?? Infinity\n  const clip = opts.rewardClip ?? { low: 0, high: 1 }\n\n  if (trajectories.length === 0) {\n    return zeroEstimate()\n  }\n\n  const weights: number[] = []\n  const weightedRewards: number[] = []\n  let maxW = 0\n  for (const t of trajectories) {\n    if (t.behaviorProb <= 0) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `inverseProbabilityWeighting: behaviorProb must be > 0 (runId=${t.runId})`,\n      )\n    }\n    const w = Math.min(cap, t.targetProb / t.behaviorProb)\n    const r = clamp(t.reward, clip.low, clip.high)\n    weights.push(w)\n    weightedRewards.push(w * r)\n    if (w > maxW) maxW = w\n  }\n  const n = weights.length\n  const value = weightedRewards.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n\n  const variance = weightedRewards.reduce((s, x) => s + (x - value) ** 2, 0) / Math.max(1, n - 1)\n  const sumW = weights.reduce((s, w) => s + w, 0)\n  const sumW2 = weights.reduce((s, w) => s + w * w, 0)\n  const effN = sumW === 0 ? 0 : (sumW * sumW) / sumW2\n\n  return {\n    value,\n    standardError: Math.sqrt(variance / n),\n    effectiveSampleSize: effN,\n    n,\n    maxImportanceWeight: maxW,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Self-Normalized Importance Sampling. Lower variance than vanilla IPS at\n * the cost of small bias (vanishing as N grows). The right default for\n * LLM-agent evaluation where overlap is often poor.\n */\nexport function selfNormalizedImportanceWeighting(\n  trajectories: OffPolicyTrajectory[],\n  opts: OffPolicyOptions = {},\n): OffPolicyEstimate {\n  const cap = opts.weightCap ?? Infinity\n  const clip = opts.rewardClip ?? { low: 0, high: 1 }\n  if (trajectories.length === 0) return zeroEstimate()\n\n  const weights: number[] = []\n  const rewards: number[] = []\n  let maxW = 0\n  for (const t of trajectories) {\n    if (t.behaviorProb <= 0) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `selfNormalizedImportanceWeighting: behaviorProb must be > 0 (runId=${t.runId})`,\n      )\n    }\n    const w = Math.min(cap, t.targetProb / t.behaviorProb)\n    weights.push(w)\n    rewards.push(clamp(t.reward, clip.low, clip.high))\n    if (w > maxW) maxW = w\n  }\n  const sumW = weights.reduce((s, w) => s + w, 0)\n  const sumWR = weights.reduce((s, w, i) => s + w * rewards[i]!, 0)\n  const value = sumW === 0 ? 0 : sumWR / sumW\n  const sumW2 = weights.reduce((s, w) => s + w * w, 0)\n  const effN = sumW === 0 ? 0 : (sumW * sumW) / sumW2\n  // Influence-function-based SE for SNIPS (Owen 2013, Ch. 9).\n  const phi = weights.map((w, i) => w * (rewards[i]! - value))\n  const variance = phi.reduce((s, x) => s + x * x, 0) / Math.max(1, sumW * sumW)\n  return {\n    value,\n    standardError: Math.sqrt(variance),\n    effectiveSampleSize: effN,\n    n: trajectories.length,\n    maxImportanceWeight: maxW,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Doubly-robust off-policy estimator (Dudík, Langford, Li 2011).\n *\n *     V_DR = (1/N) * sum_i [ q_hat_i + (target_prob_i / behavior_prob_i) * (r_i - q_hat_i) ]\n *\n * Unbiased if EITHER:\n *   - the importance ratios are correct (IPS-style validity), OR\n *   - the Q-hat function is correct (model-based validity).\n *\n * In practice both are imperfect, but the residual bias is the *product*\n * of both errors — much smaller than either alone. This is why DR is the\n * default in production OPE pipelines.\n *\n * Requires `qHat` on every trajectory. If any are `null`, the estimator\n * falls back to SNIPS for those entries (loud-fallback behavior; the\n * report's `n` reflects the full set but `effectiveSampleSize` accounts\n * for the lost variance reduction).\n */\nexport function doublyRobust(\n  trajectories: OffPolicyTrajectory[],\n  opts: OffPolicyOptions = {},\n): OffPolicyEstimate {\n  const cap = opts.weightCap ?? Infinity\n  const clip = opts.rewardClip ?? { low: 0, high: 1 }\n  if (trajectories.length === 0) return zeroEstimate()\n\n  const contributions: number[] = []\n  let maxW = 0\n  let sumW = 0\n  let sumW2 = 0\n  for (const t of trajectories) {\n    if (t.behaviorProb <= 0) {\n      throw new ValidationError(`doublyRobust: behaviorProb must be > 0 (runId=${t.runId})`)\n    }\n    const w = Math.min(cap, t.targetProb / t.behaviorProb)\n    const r = clamp(t.reward, clip.low, clip.high)\n    const q =\n      typeof t.qHat === 'number' && Number.isFinite(t.qHat)\n        ? clamp(t.qHat, clip.low, clip.high)\n        : null\n    if (q === null) {\n      contributions.push(w * r) // fallback: IPS for this entry\n    } else {\n      contributions.push(q + w * (r - q))\n    }\n    if (w > maxW) maxW = w\n    sumW += w\n    sumW2 += w * w\n  }\n  const n = contributions.length\n  const value = contributions.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n\n  const variance = contributions.reduce((s, x) => s + (x - value) ** 2, 0) / Math.max(1, n - 1)\n  const effN = sumW === 0 ? 0 : (sumW * sumW) / sumW2\n  return {\n    value,\n    standardError: Math.sqrt(variance / n),\n    effectiveSampleSize: effN,\n    n,\n    maxImportanceWeight: maxW,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Convenience: run all three estimators and return them side-by-side.\n * The recommended diagnostic — agreement across estimators is a much\n * stronger signal than any single one.\n */\nexport function offPolicyEstimateAll(\n  trajectories: OffPolicyTrajectory[],\n  opts: OffPolicyOptions = {},\n): { ips: OffPolicyEstimate; snips: OffPolicyEstimate; dr: OffPolicyEstimate } {\n  return {\n    ips: inverseProbabilityWeighting(trajectories, opts),\n    snips: selfNormalizedImportanceWeighting(trajectories, opts),\n    dr: doublyRobust(trajectories, opts),\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction zeroEstimate(): OffPolicyEstimate {\n  return { value: 0, standardError: 0, effectiveSampleSize: 0, n: 0, maxImportanceWeight: 0 }\n}\n\nfunction clamp(x: number, lo: number, hi: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return lo\n  return Math.max(lo, Math.min(hi, x))\n}\n"],"mappings":";;;;;AAiGO,SAAS,4BACd,cACA,OAAyB,CAAC,GACP;AACnB,QAAM,MAAM,KAAK,aAAa;AAC9B,QAAM,OAAO,KAAK,cAAc,EAAE,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE;AAElD,MAAI,aAAa,WAAW,GAAG;AAC7B,WAAO,aAAa;AAAA,EACtB;AAEA,QAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;AAC3B,QAAM,kBAA4B,CAAC;AACnC,MAAI,OAAO;AACX,aAAW,KAAK,cAAc;AAC5B,QAAI,EAAE,gBAAgB,GAAG;AACvB,YAAM,IAAI;AAAA,QACR,gEAAgE,EAAE,KAAK;AAAA,MACzE;AAAA,IACF;AACA,UAAM,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,YAAY;AACrD,UAAM,IAAI,MAAM,EAAE,QAAQ,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI;AAC7C,YAAQ,KAAK,CAAC;AACd,oBAAgB,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC;AAC1B,QAAI,IAAI,KAAM,QAAO;AAAA,EACvB;AACA,QAAM,IAAI,QAAQ;AAClB,QAAM,QAAQ,gBAAgB,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI;AAC3D,QAAM,WAAW,gBAAgB,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,UAAU,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;AAC9F,QAAM,OAAO,QAAQ,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC;AAC9C,QAAM,QAAQ,QAAQ,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC;AACnD,QAAM,OAAO,SAAS,IAAI,IAAK,OAAO,OAAQ;AAE9C,SAAO;AAAA,IACL;AAAA,IACA,eAAe,KAAK,KAAK,WAAW,CAAC;AAAA,IACrC,qBAAqB;AAAA,IACrB;AAAA,IACA,qBAAqB;AAAA,EACvB;AACF;AAOO,SAAS,kCACd,cACA,OAAyB,CAAC,GACP;AACnB,QAAM,MAAM,KAAK,aAAa;AAC9B,QAAM,OAAO,KAAK,cAAc,EAAE,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE;AAClD,MAAI,aAAa,WAAW,EAAG,QAAO,aAAa;AAEnD,QAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;AAC3B,QAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;AAC3B,MAAI,OAAO;AACX,aAAW,KAAK,cAAc;AAC5B,QAAI,EAAE,gBAAgB,GAAG;AACvB,YAAM,IAAI;AAAA,QACR,sEAAsE,EAAE,KAAK;AAAA,MAC/E;AAAA,IACF;AACA,UAAM,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,YAAY;AACrD,YAAQ,KAAK,CAAC;AACd,YAAQ,KAAK,MAAM,EAAE,QAAQ,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC;AACjD,QAAI,IAAI,KAAM,QAAO;AAAA,EACvB;AACA,QAAM,OAAO,QAAQ,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC;AAC9C,QAAM,QAAQ,QAAQ,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,QAAQ,CAAC,GAAI,CAAC;AAChE,QAAM,QAAQ,SAAS,IAAI,IAAI,QAAQ;AACvC,QAAM,QAAQ,QAAQ,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC;AACnD,QAAM,OAAO,SAAS,IAAI,IAAK,OAAO,OAAQ;AAE9C,QAAM,MAAM,QAAQ,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,KAAK,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAK,MAAM;AAC3D,QAAM,WAAW,IAAI,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,OAAO,IAAI;AAC7E,SAAO;AAAA,IACL;AAAA,IACA,eAAe,KAAK,KAAK,QAAQ;AAAA,IACjC,qBAAqB;AAAA,IACrB,GAAG,aAAa;AAAA,IAChB,qBAAqB;AAAA,EACvB;AACF;AAoBO,SAAS,aACd,cACA,OAAyB,CAAC,GACP;AACnB,QAAM,MAAM,KAAK,aAAa;AAC9B,QAAM,OAAO,KAAK,cAAc,EAAE,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE;AAClD,MAAI,aAAa,WAAW,EAAG,QAAO,aAAa;AAEnD,QAAM,gBAA0B,CAAC;AACjC,MAAI,OAAO;AACX,MAAI,OAAO;AACX,MAAI,QAAQ;AACZ,aAAW,KAAK,cAAc;AAC5B,QAAI,EAAE,gBAAgB,GAAG;AACvB,YAAM,IAAI,gBAAgB,iDAAiD,EAAE,KAAK,GAAG;AAAA,IACvF;AACA,UAAM,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,YAAY;AACrD,UAAM,IAAI,MAAM,EAAE,QAAQ,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI;AAC7C,UAAM,IACJ,OAAO,EAAE,SAAS,YAAY,OAAO,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,IAChD,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI,IACjC;AACN,QAAI,MAAM,MAAM;AACd,oBAAc,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC;AAAA,IAC1B,OAAO;AACL,oBAAc,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE;AAAA,IACpC;AACA,QAAI,IAAI,KAAM,QAAO;AACrB,YAAQ;AACR,aAAS,IAAI;AAAA,EACf;AACA,QAAM,IAAI,cAAc;AACxB,QAAM,QAAQ,cAAc,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI;AACzD,QAAM,WAAW,cAAc,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,UAAU,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;AAC5F,QAAM,OAAO,SAAS,IAAI,IAAK,OAAO,OAAQ;AAC9C,SAAO;AAAA,IACL;AAAA,IACA,eAAe,KAAK,KAAK,WAAW,CAAC;AAAA,IACrC,qBAAqB;AAAA,IACrB;AAAA,IACA,qBAAqB;AAAA,EACvB;AACF;AAOO,SAAS,qBACd,cACA,OAAyB,CAAC,GACmD;AAC7E,SAAO;AAAA,IACL,KAAK,4BAA4B,cAAc,IAAI;AAAA,IACnD,OAAO,kCAAkC,cAAc,IAAI;AAAA,IAC3D,IAAI,aAAa,cAAc,IAAI;AAAA,EACrC;AACF;AAIA,SAAS,eAAkC;AACzC,SAAO,EAAE,OAAO,GAAG,eAAe,GAAG,qBAAqB,GAAG,GAAG,GAAG,qBAAqB,EAAE;AAC5F;AAEA,SAAS,MAAM,GAAW,IAAY,IAAoB;AACxD,MAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,EAAG,QAAO;AAChC,SAAO,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;AACrC;","names":[]}