@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.120.2 → 0.120.3

package/dist/meta-eval/index.js

@@ -0,0 +1,417 @@
+import {
+  calibrationCurve,
+  calibrationFromPairs
+} from "../chunk-NPCTHQIO.js";
+import {
+  analyzeSeries
+} from "../chunk-BOD4O7OF.js";
+import {
+  FileSystemOutcomeStore,
+  InMemoryOutcomeStore
+} from "../chunk-3RF76KTD.js";
+import {
+  rubricPredictiveValidity
+} from "../chunk-X4UCIOTZ.js";
+import {
+  pearsonR,
+  spearmanR
+} from "../chunk-PJQFMIOX.js";
+import {
+  aggregateLlm,
+  llmSpans
+} from "../chunk-ZET2UAYW.js";
+import "../chunk-MA6HLL3S.js";
+import {
+  ValidationError
+} from "../chunk-ONWEPEDO.js";
+import "../chunk-PZ5AY32C.js";
+
+// src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts
+async function correlationStudy(traceStore, outcomeStore, evalMetrics, outcomeMetricNames, options = {}) {
+  const runs = await traceStore.listRuns();
+  const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list(options.outcomeFilter);
+  const outcomesByRun = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  for (const o of outcomes) {
+    const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? [];
+    arr.push(o);
+    outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr);
+  }
+  const reduction = options.reduction ?? "latest";
+  const maxLag = options.maxCaptureLagMs ?? Infinity;
+  const pairs = [];
+  for (const em of evalMetrics) {
+    for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {
+      pairs.push({ evalMetric: em.id, outcomeMetric: om, xs: [], ys: [] });
+    }
+  }
+  let joined = 0;
+  let skipped = 0;
+  for (const run of runs) {
+    const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId);
+    if (!os || os.length === 0) {
+      skipped++;
+      continue;
+    }
+    const eligible = os.filter((o) => o.capturedAt - run.startedAt <= maxLag);
+    if (eligible.length === 0) {
+      skipped++;
+      continue;
+    }
+    for (const em of evalMetrics) {
+      const extract = em.extract ?? defaultExtract(em.id);
+      const x = await extract(run, traceStore);
+      if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue;
+      for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {
+        const values = eligible.map((o) => o.metrics[om]).filter((v) => typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v));
+        if (values.length === 0) continue;
+        const y = reduce(values, reduction, eligible);
+        if (y === null) continue;
+        const pair = pairs.find((p) => p.evalMetric === em.id && p.outcomeMetric === om);
+        pair.xs.push(x);
+        pair.ys.push(y);
+      }
+    }
+    joined++;
+  }
+  const results = pairs.filter((p) => p.xs.length >= 3).map((p) => {
+    const pearson = pearsonR(p.xs, p.ys);
+    const spearman = spearmanR(p.xs, p.ys);
+    const pearsonCi95 = bootstrapPearsonCi(p.xs, p.ys, options.bootstrapIterations ?? 500);
+    const verdict = Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.7 ? "strong" : Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.4 ? "moderate" : "weak";
+    return {
+      evalMetric: p.evalMetric,
+      outcomeMetric: p.outcomeMetric,
+      n: p.xs.length,
+      pearson,
+      spearman,
+      pearsonCi95,
+      verdict
+    };
+  });
+  return { pairs: results, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped };
+}
+function reduce(values, kind, outcomes) {
+  if (values.length === 0) return null;
+  if (kind === "mean") return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length;
+  if (kind === "max") return Math.max(...values);
+  const latest = [...outcomes].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0];
+  if (!latest) return null;
+  const latestKey = Object.keys(latest.metrics)[0];
+  const v = latestKey !== void 0 ? latest.metrics[latestKey] : void 0;
+  const paired = outcomes.map((o) => {
+    const k = Object.keys(o.metrics)[0];
+    return {
+      at: o.capturedAt,
+      v: k !== void 0 ? values.find((x) => o.metrics[k] === x) : void 0
+    };
+  }).filter((p) => p.v !== void 0);
+  if (paired.length === 0) return v ?? null;
+  return paired.sort((a, b) => b.at - a.at)[0]?.v ?? null;
+}
+function bootstrapPearsonCi(xs, ys, iterations) {
+  const n = xs.length;
+  if (n < 3) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN };
+  const rs = [];
+  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {
+    const rx = new Array(n);
+    const ry = new Array(n);
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+      const idx = Math.floor(Math.random() * n);
+      rx[i] = xs[idx];
+      ry[i] = ys[idx];
+    }
+    const r = pearsonR(rx, ry);
+    if (Number.isFinite(r)) rs.push(r);
+  }
+  rs.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  if (rs.length === 0) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN };
+  return {
+    lower: rs[Math.floor(0.025 * rs.length)],
+    upper: rs[Math.min(rs.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * rs.length))]
+  };
+}
+function defaultExtract(metric) {
+  return async (run, store) => {
+    switch (metric) {
+      case "score":
+      case "overallScore":
+        return run.outcome?.score ?? null;
+      case "pass":
+        return run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0;
+      case "durationMs":
+        return run.endedAt && run.startedAt ? run.endedAt - run.startedAt : null;
+      case "costUsd": {
+        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId);
+        return aggregateLlm(llm).costUsd;
+      }
+      case "inputTokens": {
+        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId);
+        return aggregateLlm(llm).inputTokens;
+      }
+      default:
+        return null;
+    }
+  };
+}
+
+// src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts
+var SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES = ["irr", "calibrationKappa", "sentinelPassRate"];
+function parseIso(value, label) {
+  const ms = typeof value === "string" ? Date.parse(value) : NaN;
+  if (!Number.isFinite(ms)) {
+    throw new ValidationError(
+      `judge-sentinel: ${label} is not a parseable ISO timestamp: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`
+    );
+  }
+  return ms;
+}
+function validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot, source = "snapshot") {
+  parseIso(snapshot.at, `${source}.at`);
+  if (typeof snapshot.judgeId !== "string" || snapshot.judgeId.length === 0) {
+    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeId must be a non-empty string`);
+  }
+  if (typeof snapshot.judgeModel !== "string" || snapshot.judgeModel.length === 0) {
+    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeModel must be a non-empty string`);
+  }
+  if (snapshot.metrics === null || typeof snapshot.metrics !== "object") {
+    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics must be an object (may be empty)`);
+  }
+  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(snapshot.metrics)) {
+    if (!SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.includes(key)) {
+      throw new ValidationError(
+        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics carries unknown key "${key}" \u2014 known: ${SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.join(", ")}`
+      );
+    }
+    if (value !== void 0 && !Number.isFinite(value)) {
+      throw new ValidationError(
+        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics.${key} is not a finite number: ${String(value)}`
+      );
+    }
+  }
+}
+function snapshotFromCalibration(report, meta) {
+  const kappa = "weightedKappaContinuous" in report ? report.weightedKappaContinuous : report.kappa;
+  if (!Number.isFinite(kappa)) {
+    throw new ValidationError(
+      `snapshotFromCalibration: \u03BA is not finite (n=${report.n}) \u2014 calibrate against \u22652 joined golden items before snapshotting`
+    );
+  }
+  const snapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { calibrationKappa: kappa } };
+  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+  return snapshot;
+}
+function snapshotFromAgreement(report, meta) {
+  const irr = "overallIcc" in report ? report.overallIcc : report.icc;
+  if (!Number.isFinite(irr)) {
+    throw new ValidationError(
+      "snapshotFromAgreement: ICC is not finite \u2014 agreement needs \u22652 raters and \u22652 complete items"
+    );
+  }
+  const snapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { irr } };
+  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+  return snapshot;
+}
+function snapshotFromSentinelSet(scores, golden, meta, options = {}) {
+  const tolerance = options.tolerance ?? 0.1;
+  if (!Number.isFinite(tolerance) || tolerance < 0) {
+    throw new ValidationError(
+      `snapshotFromSentinelSet: tolerance must be a finite number \u2265 0, got ${tolerance}`
+    );
+  }
+  const goldenById = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  for (const item of golden) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(item.humanScore)) {
+      throw new ValidationError(
+        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: golden item "${item.itemId}" has a non-finite humanScore`
+      );
+    }
+    if (goldenById.has(item.itemId)) {
+      throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: duplicate golden itemId "${item.itemId}"`);
+    }
+    goldenById.set(item.itemId, item.humanScore);
+  }
+  let joined = 0;
+  let passed = 0;
+  for (const s of scores) {
+    const human = goldenById.get(s.itemId);
+    if (human === void 0) continue;
+    if (!Number.isFinite(s.score)) {
+      throw new ValidationError(
+        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: judge score for item "${s.itemId}" is not finite`
+      );
+    }
+    joined++;
+    if (Math.abs(s.score - human) <= tolerance) passed++;
+  }
+  if (joined === 0) {
+    throw new ValidationError(
+      "snapshotFromSentinelSet: no judge scores joined the golden set \u2014 itemIds mismatch or empty sentinel run"
+    );
+  }
+  const snapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { sentinelPassRate: passed / joined } };
+  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+  return snapshot;
+}
+function inMemorySentinelStore(initial = []) {
+  for (const s of initial) validateSentinelSnapshot(s);
+  const items = initial.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }));
+  return {
+    async append(snapshot) {
+      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+      items.push({ ...snapshot, metrics: { ...snapshot.metrics } });
+    },
+    async history(judgeId) {
+      const all = items.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }));
+      return judgeId === void 0 ? all : all.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId);
+    }
+  };
+}
+function fileSentinelStore(path) {
+  return {
+    async append(snapshot) {
+      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+      const fs = await import("fs/promises");
+      const pathMod = await import("path");
+      await fs.mkdir(pathMod.dirname(path), { recursive: true });
+      await fs.appendFile(path, `${JSON.stringify(snapshot)}
+`, "utf8");
+    },
+    async history(judgeId) {
+      const fs = await import("fs/promises");
+      let raw;
+      try {
+        raw = await fs.readFile(path, "utf8");
+      } catch (err) {
+        if (err.code === "ENOENT") return [];
+        throw err;
+      }
+      const lines = raw.split("\n");
+      const snapshots = [];
+      for (let i = 0; i < lines.length; i++) {
+        const line = lines[i];
+        if (line.trim().length === 0) continue;
+        let parsed;
+        try {
+          parsed = JSON.parse(line);
+        } catch (err) {
+          throw new ValidationError(
+            `judge-sentinel: store at ${path} has a corrupt JSONL line ${i + 1}: ${err.message}`
+          );
+        }
+        const snapshot = parsed;
+        validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot, `${path}:${i + 1}`);
+        snapshots.push(snapshot);
+      }
+      return judgeId === void 0 ? snapshots : snapshots.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId);
+    }
+  };
+}
+var MS_PER_DAY = 864e5;
+function judgeSentinelReport(history, opts) {
+  const asOfMs = parseIso(opts.asOf, "asOf");
+  const minIrr = opts.thresholds?.minIrr ?? 0.6;
+  const maxKappaDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxKappaDrop ?? 0.15;
+  const maxSentinelDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxSentinelDrop ?? 0.1;
+  const staleAfterDays = opts.thresholds?.staleAfterDays ?? 30;
+  const byJudge = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  for (const snapshot of history) {
+    validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+    const atMs = parseIso(snapshot.at, `snapshot.at (judge "${snapshot.judgeId}")`);
+    const arr = byJudge.get(snapshot.judgeId) ?? [];
+    arr.push({ ...snapshot, atMs });
+    byJudge.set(snapshot.judgeId, arr);
+  }
+  const perJudge = [];
+  const alarms = [];
+  const insufficientHistory = [];
+  for (const judgeId of [...byJudge.keys()].sort()) {
+    const snaps = byJudge.get(judgeId).sort((a, b) => a.atMs - b.atMs);
+    const newest = snaps[snaps.length - 1];
+    const ageDays = (asOfMs - newest.atMs) / MS_PER_DAY;
+    if (ageDays > staleAfterDays) {
+      alarms.push(
+        `judge "${judgeId}": stale \u2014 newest snapshot ${newest.at} is ${ageDays.toFixed(1)}d old vs asOf (limit ${staleAfterDays}d)`
+      );
+    }
+    let changeIdx = -1;
+    for (let i = 1; i < snaps.length; i++) {
+      if (snaps[i].judgeModel !== snaps[i - 1].judgeModel) changeIdx = i;
+    }
+    if (changeIdx >= 0) {
+      const recalibrated = snaps.slice(changeIdx).some(
+        (s) => Number.isFinite(s.metrics.calibrationKappa) || Number.isFinite(s.metrics.sentinelPassRate)
+      );
+      if (!recalibrated) {
+        alarms.push(
+          `judge "${judgeId}": model changed "${snaps[changeIdx - 1].judgeModel}" \u2192 "${snaps[changeIdx].judgeModel}" at ${snaps[changeIdx].at} with no post-change calibration snapshot \u2014 silent-upgrade trap; rerun calibrateJudge or the sentinel set against the new model`
+        );
+      }
+    }
+    for (const metric of SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES) {
+      const values = snaps.filter((s) => typeof s.metrics[metric] === "number").map((s) => s.metrics[metric]);
+      if (values.length === 0) continue;
+      const convergence = analyzeSeries(values, opts.convergence);
+      if (convergence.state === "insufficient-data")
+        insufficientHistory.push(`${judgeId}:${metric}`);
+      const current = values[values.length - 1];
+      const baseline = values[0];
+      const drift = current - baseline;
+      const reasons = [];
+      if (convergence.state === "drifting-down") {
+        reasons.push(
+          `convergence state drifting-down (tail run ${convergence.tailRun}, window mean ${convergence.windowMean.toFixed(3)})`
+        );
+      }
+      if (metric === "irr" && current < minIrr) {
+        reasons.push(`irr ${current.toFixed(3)} below floor ${minIrr}`);
+      }
+      if (metric === "calibrationKappa" && baseline - current > maxKappaDrop) {
+        reasons.push(
+          `calibrationKappa dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxKappaDrop})`
+        );
+      }
+      if (metric === "sentinelPassRate" && baseline - current > maxSentinelDrop) {
+        reasons.push(
+          `sentinelPassRate dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxSentinelDrop})`
+        );
+      }
+      const alarmed = reasons.length > 0;
+      const trend = {
+        judgeId,
+        metric,
+        state: convergence.state,
+        current,
+        baseline,
+        drift,
+        alarmed
+      };
+      if (alarmed) {
+        trend.reason = reasons.join("; ");
+        alarms.push(`judge "${judgeId}" ${metric}: ${trend.reason}`);
+      }
+      perJudge.push(trend);
+    }
+  }
+  return { perJudge, alarms, healthy: alarms.length === 0, insufficientHistory };
+}
+function evalHealthStamp(report) {
+  return { healthy: report.healthy, alarms: [...report.alarms] };
+}
+export {
+  FileSystemOutcomeStore,
+  InMemoryOutcomeStore,
+  SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES,
+  calibrationCurve,
+  calibrationFromPairs,
+  correlationStudy,
+  evalHealthStamp,
+  fileSentinelStore,
+  inMemorySentinelStore,
+  judgeSentinelReport,
+  rubricPredictiveValidity,
+  snapshotFromAgreement,
+  snapshotFromCalibration,
+  snapshotFromSentinelSet,
+  validateSentinelSnapshot
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/meta-eval/index.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../../src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts","../../src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Correlation study — \"does our eval score predict real-world outcomes?\"\n *\n * This is the load-bearing signal. Takes a TraceStore + OutcomeStore,\n * joins on runId, computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for every\n * (evalMetric, outcomeMetric) pair the caller declares.\n *\n * Without this number the framework is ornamental. With it and r > 0.6\n * the framework is a moat — no other agent-eval tool publishes one.\n */\n\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport { aggregateLlm, llmSpans } from '../trace/query'\nimport type { Run } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeFilter, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface EvalMetricSpec {\n  id: string\n  /** Extract a scalar from a run (defaults cover score/pass/durationMs/costUsd/tokens). */\n  extract?: (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null>\n}\n\nexport interface OutcomePair {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationResult {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n  n: number\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  /** 95% bootstrap CI for Pearson. */\n  pearsonCi95: { lower: number; upper: number }\n  /** Rough verdict: 'strong' ≥ 0.7, 'moderate' ≥ 0.4, else 'weak'. */\n  verdict: 'strong' | 'moderate' | 'weak'\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationStudyResult {\n  pairs: CorrelationResult[]\n  joinedSamples: number\n  skippedRuns: number\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationStudyOptions {\n  /** Only join outcomes captured within this window after run.startedAt. */\n  maxCaptureLagMs?: number\n  /** Restrict to a subset of outcomes (cohort, region, source). */\n  outcomeFilter?: OutcomeFilter\n  /** Which outcome per run to use when multiple exist. Default 'latest'. */\n  reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n  /** Bootstrap iterations for the CI. Default 500. */\n  bootstrapIterations?: number\n}\n\nexport async function correlationStudy(\n  traceStore: TraceStore,\n  outcomeStore: OutcomeStore,\n  evalMetrics: EvalMetricSpec[],\n  outcomeMetricNames: string[],\n  options: CorrelationStudyOptions = {},\n): Promise<CorrelationStudyResult> {\n  const runs = await traceStore.listRuns()\n  const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list(options.outcomeFilter)\n  const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const reduction = options.reduction ?? 'latest'\n  const maxLag = options.maxCaptureLagMs ?? Infinity\n\n  const pairs: Array<{ evalMetric: string; outcomeMetric: string; xs: number[]; ys: number[] }> = []\n  for (const em of evalMetrics) {\n    for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {\n      pairs.push({ evalMetric: em.id, outcomeMetric: om, xs: [], ys: [] })\n    }\n  }\n\n  let joined = 0\n  let skipped = 0\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os || os.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n    const eligible = os.filter((o) => o.capturedAt - run.startedAt <= maxLag)\n    if (eligible.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n\n    for (const em of evalMetrics) {\n      const extract = em.extract ?? defaultExtract(em.id)\n      const x = await extract(run, traceStore)\n      if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n\n      for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {\n        const values = eligible\n          .map((o) => o.metrics[om])\n          .filter((v): v is number => typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v))\n        if (values.length === 0) continue\n        const y = reduce(values, reduction, eligible)\n        if (y === null) continue\n        const pair = pairs.find((p) => p.evalMetric === em.id && p.outcomeMetric === om)!\n        pair.xs.push(x)\n        pair.ys.push(y)\n      }\n    }\n    joined++\n  }\n\n  const results: CorrelationResult[] = pairs\n    .filter((p) => p.xs.length >= 3)\n    .map((p) => {\n      const pearson = pearsonR(p.xs, p.ys)\n      const spearman = spearmanR(p.xs, p.ys)\n      const pearsonCi95 = bootstrapPearsonCi(p.xs, p.ys, options.bootstrapIterations ?? 500)\n      const verdict: CorrelationResult['verdict'] =\n        Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.7 ? 'strong' : Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.4 ? 'moderate' : 'weak'\n      return {\n        evalMetric: p.evalMetric,\n        outcomeMetric: p.outcomeMetric,\n        n: p.xs.length,\n        pearson,\n        spearman,\n        pearsonCi95,\n        verdict,\n      }\n    })\n\n  return { pairs: results, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction reduce(\n  values: number[],\n  kind: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max',\n  outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[],\n): number | null {\n  if (values.length === 0) return null\n  if (kind === 'mean') return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length\n  if (kind === 'max') return Math.max(...values)\n  // 'latest': pick the outcome captured last, then lookup its metric\n  const latest = [...outcomes].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0]\n  if (!latest) return null\n  const latestKey = Object.keys(latest.metrics)[0]\n  const v = latestKey !== undefined ? latest.metrics[latestKey] : undefined\n  // For 'latest' we already have `values` aligned; use the last-captured one\n  const paired = outcomes\n    .map((o) => {\n      const k = Object.keys(o.metrics)[0]\n      return {\n        at: o.capturedAt,\n        v: k !== undefined ? values.find((x) => o.metrics[k] === x) : undefined,\n      }\n    })\n    .filter((p) => p.v !== undefined)\n  if (paired.length === 0) return v ?? null\n  return paired.sort((a, b) => b.at - a.at)[0]?.v ?? null\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapPearsonCi(\n  xs: number[],\n  ys: number[],\n  iterations: number,\n): { lower: number; upper: number } {\n  const n = xs.length\n  if (n < 3) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN }\n  const rs: number[] = []\n  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n    const rx: number[] = new Array(n)\n    const ry: number[] = new Array(n)\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n      const idx = Math.floor(Math.random() * n)\n      rx[i] = xs[idx]!\n      ry[i] = ys[idx]!\n    }\n    const r = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n    if (Number.isFinite(r)) rs.push(r)\n  }\n  rs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  if (rs.length === 0) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN }\n  return {\n    lower: rs[Math.floor(0.025 * rs.length)]!,\n    upper: rs[Math.min(rs.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * rs.length))]!,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction defaultExtract(metric: string): (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null> {\n  return async (run, store) => {\n    switch (metric) {\n      case 'score':\n      case 'overallScore':\n        return run.outcome?.score ?? null\n      case 'pass':\n        return run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0\n      case 'durationMs':\n        return run.endedAt && run.startedAt ? run.endedAt - run.startedAt : null\n      case 'costUsd': {\n        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId)\n        return aggregateLlm(llm).costUsd\n      }\n      case 'inputTokens': {\n        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId)\n        return aggregateLlm(llm).inputTokens\n      }\n      default:\n        return null\n    }\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Judge sentinel — eval trustworthiness as a continuously measured,\n * alarmed trend.\n *\n * Judges are models; models change underneath us; calibration decays.\n * This module composes three existing instruments into one loop:\n *\n *   snapshot — adapters turn real instrument outputs (`calibrateJudge` /\n *              `calibrateJudgeContinuous`, `corpusInterRaterAgreement` /\n *              `continuousAgreement`, a rerun sentinel golden set) into\n *              `SentinelSnapshot`s\n *   series   — `analyzeSeries` (src/series-convergence) classifies each\n *              judge×metric history as stabilized / drifting / noisy\n *   alarm    — `judgeSentinelReport` turns trends + thresholds into named\n *              alarms; `evalHealthStamp` is the tiny object a campaign\n *              attaches to its verdicts\n *\n * Alarm conditions:\n *   - convergence state `drifting-down` on any tracked metric\n *   - irr below `minIrr`\n *   - calibrationKappa / sentinelPassRate dropped vs the series baseline\n *     beyond `maxKappaDrop` / `maxSentinelDrop`\n *   - judge model changed with no post-change golden-grounded snapshot\n *     (the silent-upgrade trap: judges agreeing with each other after a\n *     model swap proves nothing — only re-measuring against gold does)\n *   - newest snapshot older than `staleAfterDays` relative to `asOf`\n *\n * Wire-in: run the snapshot adapters from a post-campaign hook or a\n * nightly job, append to a `SentinelStore`, then compute\n * `judgeSentinelReport(await store.history(), { asOf })` with `asOf` =\n * the campaign timestamp. Attach `evalHealthStamp(report)` to campaign\n * verdicts: an alarmed sentinel means every downstream verdict carries\n * an integrity warning until the judge is recalibrated.\n *\n * The module is clock-free — every timestamp (`at`, `asOf`) is\n * caller-supplied ISO-8601, so reports are reproducible.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport type {\n  CalibrationResult,\n  CandidateScore,\n  ContinuousAgreement,\n  ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  GoldenItem,\n} from '../judge-calibration'\nimport {\n  analyzeSeries,\n  type SeriesConvergenceOptions,\n  type SeriesConvergenceResult,\n} from '../series-convergence'\nimport type { CorpusAgreementReport } from '../statistics'\n\nexport const SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES = ['irr', 'calibrationKappa', 'sentinelPassRate'] as const\n\nexport type SentinelMetricName = (typeof SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES)[number]\n\nexport interface SentinelMetrics {\n  /** Inter-rater reliability — ICC(2,1) from agreement instruments. */\n  irr?: number\n  /** Weighted κ vs the human golden set (`calibrateJudge*`). */\n  calibrationKappa?: number\n  /** Fraction of a fixed sentinel golden set the judge still scores within tolerance. */\n  sentinelPassRate?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSnapshot {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO-8601 timestamp — the module never reads a clock. */\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  /** Exact model identity behind the judge (pin the full version string). */\n  judgeModel: string\n  /**\n   * Metrics measured at `at`. May be empty: an empty-metrics snapshot is a\n   * model-change marker — it records the new `judgeModel` immediately and\n   * the silent-upgrade alarm stays raised until a golden-grounded snapshot\n   * (calibrationKappa or sentinelPassRate) follows.\n   */\n  metrics: SentinelMetrics\n}\n\n/** Identity + timestamp the caller supplies alongside an instrument output. */\nexport interface SnapshotMeta {\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  judgeModel: string\n}\n\nfunction parseIso(value: string, label: string): number {\n  const ms = typeof value === 'string' ? Date.parse(value) : NaN\n  if (!Number.isFinite(ms)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `judge-sentinel: ${label} is not a parseable ISO timestamp: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return ms\n}\n\n/** Shape guard for snapshots crossing a boundary (store append, JSONL load, report input). */\nexport function validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot, source = 'snapshot'): void {\n  parseIso(snapshot.at, `${source}.at`)\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeId !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeId.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeId must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeModel !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeModel.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeModel must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (snapshot.metrics === null || typeof snapshot.metrics !== 'object') {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics must be an object (may be empty)`)\n  }\n  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(snapshot.metrics)) {\n    if (!(SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES as readonly string[]).includes(key)) {\n      // A typo'd key would silently never trend — reject instead.\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics carries unknown key \"${key}\" — known: ${SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.join(', ')}`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (value !== undefined && !Number.isFinite(value)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics.${key} is not a finite number: ${String(value)}`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Snapshot adapters — real instrument output → SentinelSnapshot ───\n\n/**\n * From `calibrateJudge` / `calibrateJudgeContinuous` output. Prefers the\n * un-rounded continuous κ_w when the report carries one (integer κ\n * discards information for [0,1] judges).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromCalibration(\n  report: CalibrationResult | ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const kappa = 'weightedKappaContinuous' in report ? report.weightedKappaContinuous : report.kappa\n  if (!Number.isFinite(kappa)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromCalibration: κ is not finite (n=${report.n}) — calibrate against ≥2 joined golden items before snapshotting`,\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { calibrationKappa: kappa } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n/**\n * From `corpusInterRaterAgreement` (statistics.ts) or `continuousAgreement`\n * (judge-calibration.ts) output. IRR = ICC(2,1) — the reliability\n * coefficient both instruments compute. For ensemble-level agreement,\n * `meta.judgeId` names the ensemble and `meta.judgeModel` pins its\n * composition (e.g. a joined list of member model strings).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromAgreement(\n  report: CorpusAgreementReport | ContinuousAgreement,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const irr = 'overallIcc' in report ? report.overallIcc : report.icc\n  if (!Number.isFinite(irr)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromAgreement: ICC is not finite — agreement needs ≥2 raters and ≥2 complete items',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { irr } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSetOptions {\n  /** Max |judge − human| for an item to count as passed. Default 0.1 (tuned for [0,1] scores). */\n  tolerance?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * From a rerun of a fixed sentinel golden set: the same `GoldenItem`s the\n * judge was originally calibrated on, re-scored periodically. Pass rate =\n * fraction of joined items where the judge stays within `tolerance` of the\n * human score. Items the judge didn't score are excluded from the\n * denominator; zero joined items is an error, not a 0% pass rate.\n */\nexport function snapshotFromSentinelSet(\n  scores: CandidateScore[],\n  golden: GoldenItem[],\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n  options: SentinelSetOptions = {},\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const tolerance = options.tolerance ?? 0.1\n  if (!Number.isFinite(tolerance) || tolerance < 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromSentinelSet: tolerance must be a finite number ≥ 0, got ${tolerance}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const goldenById = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const item of golden) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(item.humanScore)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: golden item \"${item.itemId}\" has a non-finite humanScore`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (goldenById.has(item.itemId)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: duplicate golden itemId \"${item.itemId}\"`)\n    }\n    goldenById.set(item.itemId, item.humanScore)\n  }\n  let joined = 0\n  let passed = 0\n  for (const s of scores) {\n    const human = goldenById.get(s.itemId)\n    if (human === undefined) continue\n    if (!Number.isFinite(s.score)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: judge score for item \"${s.itemId}\" is not finite`,\n      )\n    }\n    joined++\n    if (Math.abs(s.score - human) <= tolerance) passed++\n  }\n  if (joined === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromSentinelSet: no judge scores joined the golden set — itemIds mismatch or empty sentinel run',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { sentinelPassRate: passed / joined } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n// ── Persistence ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelStore {\n  append(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot): Promise<void>\n  /** All snapshots (optionally for one judge), in append order. */\n  history(judgeId?: string): Promise<SentinelSnapshot[]>\n}\n\nexport function inMemorySentinelStore(initial: SentinelSnapshot[] = []): SentinelStore {\n  for (const s of initial) validateSentinelSnapshot(s)\n  const items = initial.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }))\n  return {\n    async append(snapshot) {\n      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n      items.push({ ...snapshot, metrics: { ...snapshot.metrics } })\n    },\n    async history(judgeId) {\n      const all = items.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }))\n      return judgeId === undefined ? all : all.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId)\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * JSONL store — one snapshot per line, appended atomically per call.\n * A corrupt or shape-invalid line is a loud error naming the file and\n * line number: a sentinel history that silently drops records would\n * defeat the drift detection it exists to provide.\n */\nexport function fileSentinelStore(path: string): SentinelStore {\n  return {\n    async append(snapshot) {\n      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      const pathMod = await import('node:path')\n      await fs.mkdir(pathMod.dirname(path), { recursive: true })\n      await fs.appendFile(path, `${JSON.stringify(snapshot)}\\n`, 'utf8')\n    },\n    async history(judgeId) {\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      let raw: string\n      try {\n        raw = await fs.readFile(path, 'utf8')\n      } catch (err) {\n        if ((err as NodeJS.ErrnoException).code === 'ENOENT') return []\n        throw err\n      }\n      const lines = raw.split('\\n')\n      const snapshots: SentinelSnapshot[] = []\n      for (let i = 0; i < lines.length; i++) {\n        const line = lines[i]!\n        if (line.trim().length === 0) continue\n        let parsed: unknown\n        try {\n          parsed = JSON.parse(line)\n        } catch (err) {\n          throw new ValidationError(\n            `judge-sentinel: store at ${path} has a corrupt JSONL line ${i + 1}: ${(err as Error).message}`,\n          )\n        }\n        const snapshot = parsed as SentinelSnapshot\n        validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot, `${path}:${i + 1}`)\n        snapshots.push(snapshot)\n      }\n      return judgeId === undefined ? snapshots : snapshots.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId)\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Trend report ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelThresholds {\n  /** Floor for irr — below it the judge ensemble is unreliable regardless of trend. Default 0.6. */\n  minIrr?: number\n  /** Max tolerated calibrationKappa drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.15. */\n  maxKappaDrop?: number\n  /** Max tolerated sentinelPassRate drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.1. */\n  maxSentinelDrop?: number\n  /** Newest snapshot older than this (days, vs asOf) = the sentinel itself went blind. Default 30. */\n  staleAfterDays?: number\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeSentinelOptions {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO timestamp staleness is measured against. */\n  asOf: string\n  thresholds?: SentinelThresholds\n  /** Forwarded to `analyzeSeries` (window, stableCv, driftRun). */\n  convergence?: SeriesConvergenceOptions\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelTrend {\n  judgeId: string\n  metric: SentinelMetricName\n  /** Verbatim `analyzeSeries` state for this judge×metric history. */\n  state: SeriesConvergenceResult['state']\n  /** Newest value in the series. */\n  current: number\n  /** Oldest value in the series — the reference the drop thresholds compare against. */\n  baseline: number\n  /** current − baseline (signed; negative = decayed). */\n  drift: number\n  alarmed: boolean\n  reason?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelReport {\n  perJudge: SentinelTrend[]\n  alarms: string[]\n  healthy: boolean\n  /**\n   * `judgeId:metric` pairs with too few snapshots for the convergence\n   * machine. Named, not counted — a blind spot you can't see is a blind\n   * spot you won't fix. Floor/drop checks still apply to thin series, so\n   * insufficient history alone never masks an alarm.\n   */\n  insufficientHistory: string[]\n}\n\nconst MS_PER_DAY = 86_400_000\n\nexport function judgeSentinelReport(\n  history: SentinelSnapshot[],\n  opts: JudgeSentinelOptions,\n): SentinelReport {\n  const asOfMs = parseIso(opts.asOf, 'asOf')\n  const minIrr = opts.thresholds?.minIrr ?? 0.6\n  const maxKappaDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxKappaDrop ?? 0.15\n  const maxSentinelDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxSentinelDrop ?? 0.1\n  const staleAfterDays = opts.thresholds?.staleAfterDays ?? 30\n\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, Array<SentinelSnapshot & { atMs: number }>>()\n  for (const snapshot of history) {\n    validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n    const atMs = parseIso(snapshot.at, `snapshot.at (judge \"${snapshot.judgeId}\")`)\n    const arr = byJudge.get(snapshot.judgeId) ?? []\n    arr.push({ ...snapshot, atMs })\n    byJudge.set(snapshot.judgeId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const perJudge: SentinelTrend[] = []\n  const alarms: string[] = []\n  const insufficientHistory: string[] = []\n\n  for (const judgeId of [...byJudge.keys()].sort()) {\n    const snaps = byJudge.get(judgeId)!.sort((a, b) => a.atMs - b.atMs)\n    const newest = snaps[snaps.length - 1]!\n\n    const ageDays = (asOfMs - newest.atMs) / MS_PER_DAY\n    if (ageDays > staleAfterDays) {\n      alarms.push(\n        `judge \"${judgeId}\": stale — newest snapshot ${newest.at} is ${ageDays.toFixed(1)}d old vs asOf (limit ${staleAfterDays}d)`,\n      )\n    }\n\n    // Silent-upgrade trap: only the latest model change matters for current\n    // trust, and only golden-grounded metrics clear it — irr alone proves\n    // judges still agree with each other, not that they're still right.\n    let changeIdx = -1\n    for (let i = 1; i < snaps.length; i++) {\n      if (snaps[i]!.judgeModel !== snaps[i - 1]!.judgeModel) changeIdx = i\n    }\n    if (changeIdx >= 0) {\n      const recalibrated = snaps\n        .slice(changeIdx)\n        .some(\n          (s) =>\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.calibrationKappa) ||\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.sentinelPassRate),\n        )\n      if (!recalibrated) {\n        alarms.push(\n          `judge \"${judgeId}\": model changed \"${snaps[changeIdx - 1]!.judgeModel}\" → \"${snaps[changeIdx]!.judgeModel}\" at ${snaps[changeIdx]!.at} with no post-change calibration snapshot — silent-upgrade trap; rerun calibrateJudge or the sentinel set against the new model`,\n        )\n      }\n    }\n\n    for (const metric of SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES) {\n      const values = snaps\n        .filter((s) => typeof s.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n        .map((s) => s.metrics[metric]!)\n      if (values.length === 0) continue\n\n      const convergence = analyzeSeries(values, opts.convergence)\n      if (convergence.state === 'insufficient-data')\n        insufficientHistory.push(`${judgeId}:${metric}`)\n\n      const current = values[values.length - 1]!\n      const baseline = values[0]!\n      const drift = current - baseline\n      const reasons: string[] = []\n      if (convergence.state === 'drifting-down') {\n        reasons.push(\n          `convergence state drifting-down (tail run ${convergence.tailRun}, window mean ${convergence.windowMean.toFixed(3)})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'irr' && current < minIrr) {\n        reasons.push(`irr ${current.toFixed(3)} below floor ${minIrr}`)\n      }\n      if (metric === 'calibrationKappa' && baseline - current > maxKappaDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `calibrationKappa dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxKappaDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'sentinelPassRate' && baseline - current > maxSentinelDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `sentinelPassRate dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxSentinelDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n\n      const alarmed = reasons.length > 0\n      const trend: SentinelTrend = {\n        judgeId,\n        metric,\n        state: convergence.state,\n        current,\n        baseline,\n        drift,\n        alarmed,\n      }\n      if (alarmed) {\n        trend.reason = reasons.join('; ')\n        alarms.push(`judge \"${judgeId}\" ${metric}: ${trend.reason}`)\n      }\n      perJudge.push(trend)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { perJudge, alarms, healthy: alarms.length === 0, insufficientHistory }\n}\n\n// ── Verdict stamp ────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface EvalHealthStamp {\n  healthy: boolean\n  alarms: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * The object a campaign attaches to its verdicts. Compute it from the\n * sentinel report in a post-campaign hook (or a nightly job feeding the\n * next day's campaigns) and store it alongside the verdict payload.\n * `healthy: false` means the judges that produced those verdicts have an\n * unresolved drift / decay / silent-upgrade / staleness alarm — treat the\n * verdicts as carrying an integrity warning until recalibration clears it.\n */\nexport function evalHealthStamp(report: SentinelReport): EvalHealthStamp {\n  return { healthy: report.healthy, alarms: [...report.alarms] 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