@synsci/cli-darwin-arm64 1.1.71 → 1.1.73

package/bin/skills/market-research-reports/references/data_analysis_patterns.md

@@ -0,0 +1,548 @@
+# Data Analysis Patterns for Market Research
+
+Templates and frameworks for conducting rigorous market analysis.
+
+---
+
+## Market Sizing Frameworks
+
+### TAM/SAM/SOM Analysis
+
+**Total Addressable Market (TAM)** represents the total revenue opportunity if 100% market share was achieved.
+
+#### Top-Down Approach
+```
+TAM = Total Industry Revenue (from market research reports)
+
+Example:
+- Global AI Software Market (2024): $184 billion
+- Source: Gartner, IDC, or similar
+```
+
+#### Bottom-Up Approach
+```
+TAM = Number of Potential Customers × Average Revenue per Customer
+
+Example:
+- Number of enterprises globally: 400 million
+- Target segment (large enterprises): 50,000
+- Average annual spend on solution: $500,000
+- TAM = 50,000 × $500,000 = $25 billion
+```
+
+**Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM)** represents the portion of TAM that can be served given product/service capabilities.
+
+```
+SAM = TAM × Applicable Segment %
+
+Example:
+- TAM: $25 billion
+- Geographic constraint (North America only): 40%
+- Product fit (enterprise only): 60%
+- SAM = $25B × 40% × 60% = $6 billion
+```
+
+**Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)** represents realistic market share capture.
+
+```
+SOM = SAM × Achievable Market Share %
+
+Example:
+- SAM: $6 billion
+- Conservative market share (5%): $300 million
+- Base case market share (10%): $600 million
+- Optimistic market share (15%): $900 million
+```
+
+### Growth Rate Calculation
+
+#### CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)
+```
+CAGR = (End Value / Start Value)^(1/n) - 1
+
+Where n = number of years
+
+Example:
+- 2020 market size: $10 billion
+- 2024 market size: $18 billion
+- n = 4 years
+- CAGR = (18/10)^(1/4) - 1 = 15.8%
+```
+
+#### Year-over-Year Growth
+```
+YoY Growth = (Current Year - Previous Year) / Previous Year × 100
+
+Example:
+- 2023: $15 billion
+- 2024: $18 billion
+- YoY Growth = (18-15)/15 × 100 = 20%
+```
+
+---
+
+## Porter's Five Forces Analysis
+
+### Framework Template
+
+For each force, assess: **HIGH**, **MEDIUM**, or **LOW**
+
+#### 1. Threat of New Entrants
+
+**Factors to evaluate:**
+| Factor | Assessment | Notes |
+|--------|------------|-------|
+| Capital requirements | High/Med/Low | $ required to enter |
+| Economies of scale | Strong/Moderate/Weak | Incumbent advantages |
+| Brand loyalty | High/Med/Low | Customer switching cost |
+| Access to distribution | Easy/Moderate/Difficult | Channel availability |
+| Regulatory barriers | High/Med/Low | Licensing, certifications |
+| Proprietary technology | Critical/Important/Minor | IP and know-how |
+| Expected retaliation | Aggressive/Moderate/Passive | Incumbent response |
+
+**Overall Assessment:** [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]
+
+**Key Insights:** [Summary of implications]
+
+#### 2. Bargaining Power of Suppliers
+
+**Factors to evaluate:**
+| Factor | Assessment | Notes |
+|--------|------------|-------|
+| Supplier concentration | High/Med/Low | Number of suppliers |
+| Switching costs | High/Med/Low | Cost to change suppliers |
+| Supplier differentiation | High/Med/Low | Uniqueness of inputs |
+| Forward integration threat | High/Med/Low | Can suppliers compete? |
+| Importance to supplier | Critical/Important/Minor | Your share of their revenue |
+| Substitute inputs | Many/Some/Few | Alternatives available |
+
+**Overall Assessment:** [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]
+
+#### 3. Bargaining Power of Buyers
+
+**Factors to evaluate:**
+| Factor | Assessment | Notes |
+|--------|------------|-------|
+| Buyer concentration | High/Med/Low | Few large vs. many small |
+| Purchase volume | Large/Medium/Small | Relative importance |
+| Switching costs | Low/Med/High | Cost to change vendors |
+| Price sensitivity | High/Med/Low | Focus on price vs. value |
+| Backward integration threat | High/Med/Low | Can buyers self-supply? |
+| Information availability | Full/Partial/Limited | Market transparency |
+
+**Overall Assessment:** [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]
+
+#### 4. Threat of Substitutes
+
+**Factors to evaluate:**
+| Factor | Assessment | Notes |
+|--------|------------|-------|
+| Substitute availability | Many/Some/Few | Number of alternatives |
+| Price-performance ratio | Better/Same/Worse | Value comparison |
+| Switching costs | Low/Med/High | Friction to substitute |
+| Buyer propensity to switch | High/Med/Low | Willingness to change |
+| Perceived differentiation | Low/Med/High | Unique value |
+
+**Overall Assessment:** [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]
+
+#### 5. Competitive Rivalry
+
+**Factors to evaluate:**
+| Factor | Assessment | Notes |
+|--------|------------|-------|
+| Number of competitors | Many/Several/Few | Market fragmentation |
+| Industry growth | Slow/Moderate/Fast | Growth rate impact |
+| Fixed costs | High/Med/Low | Pressure to fill capacity |
+| Product differentiation | Low/Med/High | Commoditization level |
+| Exit barriers | High/Med/Low | Difficulty leaving market |
+| Strategic stakes | High/Med/Low | Importance to competitors |
+
+**Overall Assessment:** [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]
+
+### Five Forces Summary Table
+
+| Force | Rating | Key Drivers | Implications |
+|-------|--------|-------------|--------------|
+| New Entrants | [H/M/L] | [Top factors] | [Strategic impact] |
+| Supplier Power | [H/M/L] | [Top factors] | [Strategic impact] |
+| Buyer Power | [H/M/L] | [Top factors] | [Strategic impact] |
+| Substitutes | [H/M/L] | [Top factors] | [Strategic impact] |
+| Rivalry | [H/M/L] | [Top factors] | [Strategic impact] |
+
+**Overall Industry Attractiveness:** [ATTRACTIVE / MODERATE / UNATTRACTIVE]
+
+---
+
+## PESTLE Analysis
+
+### Framework Template
+
+#### Political Factors
+
+| Factor | Current State | Trend | Impact | Time Horizon |
+|--------|---------------|-------|--------|--------------|
+| Government stability | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | Short/Med/Long |
+| Trade policies | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Tax regulations | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Government support | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Political relations | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+
+**Key Political Implications:** [Summary]
+
+#### Economic Factors
+
+| Factor | Current State | Trend | Impact | Time Horizon |
+|--------|---------------|-------|--------|--------------|
+| GDP growth | X.X% | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Interest rates | X.X% | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Inflation | X.X% | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Exchange rates | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Consumer spending | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Unemployment | X.X% | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+
+**Key Economic Implications:** [Summary]
+
+#### Social Factors
+
+| Factor | Current State | Trend | Impact | Time Horizon |
+|--------|---------------|-------|--------|--------------|
+| Demographics | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Cultural attitudes | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Consumer behavior | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Education levels | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Health consciousness | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Work-life balance | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+
+**Key Social Implications:** [Summary]
+
+#### Technological Factors
+
+| Factor | Current State | Trend | Impact | Time Horizon |
+|--------|---------------|-------|--------|--------------|
+| R&D activity | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Technology adoption | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Automation | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Digital infrastructure | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Innovation rate | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Disruptive tech | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+
+**Key Technological Implications:** [Summary]
+
+#### Legal Factors
+
+| Factor | Current State | Trend | Impact | Time Horizon |
+|--------|---------------|-------|--------|--------------|
+| Industry regulations | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Data protection | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Employment law | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Consumer protection | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| IP rights | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Antitrust | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+
+**Key Legal Implications:** [Summary]
+
+#### Environmental Factors
+
+| Factor | Current State | Trend | Impact | Time Horizon |
+|--------|---------------|-------|--------|--------------|
+| Climate change | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Sustainability reqs | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Resource availability | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Waste management | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Carbon regulations | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+| Environmental awareness | | ↑ ↓ → | H/M/L | |
+
+**Key Environmental Implications:** [Summary]
+
+---
+
+## SWOT Analysis
+
+### Framework Template
+
+#### Strengths (Internal, Positive)
+| Strength | Evidence | Strategic Value |
+|----------|----------|-----------------|
+| [Strength 1] | [Data/proof] | High/Med/Low |
+| [Strength 2] | [Data/proof] | High/Med/Low |
+| [Strength 3] | [Data/proof] | High/Med/Low |
+
+**Core Strengths Summary:** [2-3 sentence synthesis]
+
+#### Weaknesses (Internal, Negative)
+| Weakness | Evidence | Severity |
+|----------|----------|----------|
+| [Weakness 1] | [Data/proof] | Critical/Moderate/Minor |
+| [Weakness 2] | [Data/proof] | Critical/Moderate/Minor |
+| [Weakness 3] | [Data/proof] | Critical/Moderate/Minor |
+
+**Key Vulnerabilities Summary:** [2-3 sentence synthesis]
+
+#### Opportunities (External, Positive)
+| Opportunity | Size/Potential | Timeframe |
+|-------------|----------------|-----------|
+| [Opportunity 1] | $X / High/Med/Low | Short/Med/Long |
+| [Opportunity 2] | $X / High/Med/Low | Short/Med/Long |
+| [Opportunity 3] | $X / High/Med/Low | Short/Med/Long |
+
+**Priority Opportunities Summary:** [2-3 sentence synthesis]
+
+#### Threats (External, Negative)
+| Threat | Likelihood | Impact |
+|--------|------------|--------|
+| [Threat 1] | High/Med/Low | High/Med/Low |
+| [Threat 2] | High/Med/Low | High/Med/Low |
+| [Threat 3] | High/Med/Low | High/Med/Low |
+
+**Critical Threats Summary:** [2-3 sentence synthesis]
+
+### SWOT Strategy Matrix
+
+| | **Strengths** | **Weaknesses** |
+|---|---------------|----------------|
+| **Opportunities** | **SO Strategies** (use strengths to capture opportunities) | **WO Strategies** (overcome weaknesses to capture opportunities) |
+| **Threats** | **ST Strategies** (use strengths to mitigate threats) | **WT Strategies** (minimize weaknesses and avoid threats) |
+
+---
+
+## BCG Growth-Share Matrix
+
+### Framework Template
+
+**Axes:**
+- X-axis: Relative Market Share (High → Low, logarithmic scale)
+- Y-axis: Market Growth Rate (High → Low, typically 10% as midpoint)
+
+### Quadrant Definitions
+
+| Quadrant | Growth | Share | Characteristics | Strategy |
+|----------|--------|-------|-----------------|----------|
+| **Stars** | High | High | Market leaders in growing markets | Invest to maintain position |
+| **Cash Cows** | Low | High | Market leaders in mature markets | Harvest for cash flow |
+| **Question Marks** | High | Low | Small share in growing markets | Invest selectively or divest |
+| **Dogs** | Low | Low | Small share in mature markets | Divest or minimize investment |
+
+### Product/Business Unit Analysis
+
+| Product/BU | Market Growth | Relative Share | Quadrant | Recommended Strategy |
+|------------|---------------|----------------|----------|---------------------|
+| [Product A] | X.X% | X.X | Star/Cow/QM/Dog | [Strategy] |
+| [Product B] | X.X% | X.X | Star/Cow/QM/Dog | [Strategy] |
+| [Product C] | X.X% | X.X | Star/Cow/QM/Dog | [Strategy] |
+
+### Portfolio Balance Assessment
+
+| Quadrant | Number of Products | Revenue % | Investment Priority |
+|----------|-------------------|-----------|---------------------|
+| Stars | X | X% | High |
+| Cash Cows | X | X% | Maintain |
+| Question Marks | X | X% | Selective |
+| Dogs | X | X% | Low/Divest |
+
+---
+
+## Value Chain Analysis
+
+### Framework Template
+
+#### Primary Activities
+
+| Activity | Description | Value Created | Cost | Competitive Position |
+|----------|-------------|---------------|------|---------------------|
+| **Inbound Logistics** | Receiving, storing, inventory | | $X | Strong/Average/Weak |
+| **Operations** | Manufacturing, assembly | | $X | Strong/Average/Weak |
+| **Outbound Logistics** | Distribution, delivery | | $X | Strong/Average/Weak |
+| **Marketing & Sales** | Promotion, sales force | | $X | Strong/Average/Weak |
+| **Service** | Installation, support, repair | | $X | Strong/Average/Weak |
+
+#### Support Activities
+
+| Activity | Description | Value Created | Cost | Competitive Position |
+|----------|-------------|---------------|------|---------------------|
+| **Infrastructure** | Management, finance, legal | | $X | Strong/Average/Weak |
+| **HR Management** | Recruiting, training, comp | | $X | Strong/Average/Weak |
+| **Technology Dev** | R&D, process improvement | | $X | Strong/Average/Weak |
+| **Procurement** | Purchasing, supplier mgmt | | $X | Strong/Average/Weak |
+
+### Value Chain Margin Analysis
+
+```
+Total Revenue:           $XXX
+- Inbound Logistics:     ($XX)
+- Operations:            ($XX)
+- Outbound Logistics:    ($XX)
+- Marketing & Sales:     ($XX)
+- Service:               ($XX)
+- Support Activities:    ($XX)
+= Margin:                $XX (X%)
+```
+
+### Competitive Comparison
+
+| Activity | Company | Industry Avg | Best-in-Class | Gap |
+|----------|---------|--------------|---------------|-----|
+| [Activity] | X% | Y% | Z% | +/-X% |
+
+---
+
+## Competitive Positioning Analysis
+
+### Framework Template
+
+#### Positioning Dimensions
+
+Common positioning dimension pairs:
+- Price vs. Quality
+- Market Focus (Niche vs. Broad)
+- Solution Type (Product vs. Platform)
+- Geographic Scope (Regional vs. Global)
+- Customer Focus (Enterprise vs. SMB vs. Consumer)
+- Innovation Level (Leader vs. Follower)
+
+#### Competitor Mapping
+
+| Competitor | Dimension 1 Score (1-10) | Dimension 2 Score (1-10) | Market Share | Notes |
+|------------|-------------------------|-------------------------|--------------|-------|
+| Company A | X | X | X% | [Position description] |
+| Company B | X | X | X% | [Position description] |
+| Company C | X | X | X% | [Position description] |
+
+#### Strategic Group Identification
+
+| Strategic Group | Companies | Characteristics | Market Share |
+|-----------------|-----------|-----------------|--------------|
+| Group 1: [Name] | A, B, C | [Description] | X% |
+| Group 2: [Name] | D, E | [Description] | X% |
+| Group 3: [Name] | F, G, H | [Description] | X% |
+
+---
+
+## Risk Assessment Framework
+
+### Risk Identification
+
+#### Risk Categories
+1. **Market Risks**: Demand changes, price pressure, market shifts
+2. **Competitive Risks**: New entrants, competitor moves, disruption
+3. **Regulatory Risks**: New regulations, compliance requirements
+4. **Technology Risks**: Obsolescence, security, integration
+5. **Operational Risks**: Supply chain, quality, capacity
+6. **Financial Risks**: Currency, interest rates, credit
+7. **Reputational Risks**: Brand damage, social media, ethics
+
+### Risk Assessment Matrix
+
+| Risk ID | Risk Description | Category | Probability | Impact | Score | Priority |
+|---------|------------------|----------|-------------|--------|-------|----------|
+| R1 | [Description] | Market | 1-5 | 1-5 | P×I | H/M/L |
+| R2 | [Description] | Competitive | 1-5 | 1-5 | P×I | H/M/L |
+
+**Scoring Guide:**
+- Probability: 1=Very Unlikely, 2=Unlikely, 3=Possible, 4=Likely, 5=Very Likely
+- Impact: 1=Minimal, 2=Minor, 3=Moderate, 4=Major, 5=Severe
+- Priority: Score 15-25=High, 8-14=Medium, 1-7=Low
+
+### Risk Mitigation Planning
+
+| Risk ID | Risk | Mitigation Strategy | Owner | Timeline | Cost |
+|---------|------|---------------------|-------|----------|------|
+| R1 | [Risk] | [Prevention + Response] | [Name] | [Date] | $X |
+
+---
+
+## Financial Analysis Patterns
+
+### Revenue Projection Model
+
+```
+Year N Revenue = Year N-1 Revenue × (1 + Growth Rate)
+
+Or bottom-up:
+Revenue = Customers × Revenue per Customer × Retention Rate
+        + New Customers × Revenue per Customer × (1 - Churn Rate)
+```
+
+### Scenario Analysis Template
+
+| Metric | Conservative | Base Case | Optimistic |
+|--------|--------------|-----------|------------|
+| Market Growth | X% | Y% | Z% |
+| Market Share | X% | Y% | Z% |
+| Pricing | $X | $Y | $Z |
+| Gross Margin | X% | Y% | Z% |
+| **Revenue Y5** | $X | $Y | $Z |
+| **EBITDA Y5** | $X | $Y | $Z |
+
+### Key Financial Metrics
+
+| Metric | Formula | Target |
+|--------|---------|--------|
+| Gross Margin | (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue | X% |
+| EBITDA Margin | EBITDA / Revenue | X% |
+| Customer Acquisition Cost | Sales & Marketing / New Customers | $X |
+| Lifetime Value | ARPU × Gross Margin × Lifetime | $X |
+| LTV/CAC Ratio | LTV / CAC | >3x |
+| Payback Period | CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin × 12) | <X months |
+
+---
+
+## Data Collection Checklist
+
+### Market Size Data
+- [ ] Current market size (with year and source)
+- [ ] Historical market size (5-10 years)
+- [ ] Market growth projections (5-10 years)
+- [ ] CAGR (historical and projected)
+- [ ] Regional breakdown
+- [ ] Segment breakdown
+
+### Competitive Data
+- [ ] Market share by company (top 10)
+- [ ] Revenue by competitor
+- [ ] Growth rates by competitor
+- [ ] Strategic moves (M&A, partnerships, launches)
+- [ ] Pricing information
+- [ ] Product/service offerings
+
+### Customer Data
+- [ ] Customer segments and sizes
+- [ ] Segment growth rates
+- [ ] Average deal size by segment
+- [ ] Customer acquisition cost
+- [ ] Customer lifetime value
+- [ ] Churn rates
+
+### Industry Data
+- [ ] Key industry trends
+- [ ] Regulatory developments
+- [ ] Technology trends
+- [ ] Economic indicators
+- [ ] Demographic trends
+
+---
+
+## Research Sources
+
+### Primary Research
+- Customer interviews
+- Expert interviews
+- Surveys
+- Focus groups
+
+### Secondary Research
+- Market research reports (Gartner, Forrester, IDC, McKinsey)
+- Industry associations
+- Government statistics
+- Company annual reports
+- SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q)
+- Earnings call transcripts
+- Trade publications
+- Academic journals
+- News articles
+
+### Data Validation
+- Cross-reference multiple sources
+- Check date currency (prefer <2 years old)
+- Verify methodology
+- Note confidence levels
+- Document assumptions