@songsid/agend 2.3.0-beta.1 → 2.3.0-beta.11

package/dist/backend-command.d.ts

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@
  * the web chat only present it (fleet-manager.ts, web-commands.ts).
  */
 import type { ModelOption } from "./backend/types.js";
+import type { AvailabilityState } from "./backend-availability.js";
 /** The word that picks the inherited value of a model or an effort, in the typed form and in the menus. */
 export declare const BACKEND_DEFAULT = "default";
 export interface BackendCommandDeps {
@@ -19,8 +20,15 @@ export interface BackendCommandDeps {
     currentBackend(instance: string): string;
     /** What the instance runs on now, as a reply shows it: "claude-code · opus". */
     currentDisplay(instance: string): string;
-    /** Backends whose CLI is installed on this host, found the way the launch finds it; never removed or test-only ones. */
-    installedBackends(): string[];
+    /**
+     * #2072: every backend of the catalog (never removed or test-only ones) with what this host's published snapshot says
+     * about it — installed, signed in, new enough. Read only; never probes.
+     */
+    availability(): Array<{
+        backend: string;
+        state: AvailabilityState;
+        minVersion?: string | null;
+    }>;
     /** The models `/model` would offer on that backend; empty when none are known. */
     models(backend: string): Promise<ModelOption[]>;
     /** A name the backend accepts beyond its list (claude-code's aliases and account catalog). */
@@ -45,11 +53,21 @@ export interface BackendPlan {
     model: string | null;
     effort: string | null;
 }
-/** One choice of a step. `token` is the argument it adds; `label` what the button says. */
+/**
+ * One choice of a step. `token` is the argument it adds; `label` what the button says. `disabled`: why it cannot be
+ * chosen here (shown, not hidden — a surface that cannot disable an option shows the reason and the step refuses it).
+ */
 export interface BackendChoice {
     token: string;
     label: string;
+    disabled?: string;
 }
+/** Why a backend cannot be chosen, or null when it can (usable, or unknown: checked again when applied). */
+export declare function backendUnusable(t: BackendCommandDeps["t"], row: {
+    backend: string;
+    state: AvailabilityState;
+    minVersion?: string | null;
+}): string | null;
 export type BackendStep = {
     kind: "choose";
     step: "backend" | "model" | "effort";

package/dist/backend-command.js

@@ -2,6 +2,15 @@
 export const BACKEND_DEFAULT = "default";
 /** The most choices one step offers: a Discord select menu's 25, less "default". */
 const MAX_MODEL_CHOICES = 24;
+/** Why a backend cannot be chosen, or null when it can (usable, or unknown: checked again when applied). */
+export function backendUnusable(t, row) {
+    switch (row.state) {
+        case "not_installed": return t("backend.reason_not_installed");
+        case "not_signed_in": return t("backend.reason_not_signed_in");
+        case "too_old": return t("backend.reason_too_old", row.minVersion ?? "?");
+        default: return null;
+    }
+}
 /** A chosen model or effort as a reply says it; `null` is the inherited one, named. */
 function shown(deps, key, value) {
     if (value !== null)
@@ -40,18 +49,28 @@ export async function backendStep(deps, instance, args) {
     if (args.length > 3)
         return { kind: "refuse", text: t("backend.usage") };
     const from = deps.currentBackend(instance);
-    const installed = deps.installedBackends();
+    const rows = deps.availability();
+    // The instance's own backend is never shown as unusable: a failed or stale probe must not disable it (fail open).
+    const why = (row) => (row.backend === from ? null : backendUnusable(t, row));
     if (args.length === 0) {
         return {
             kind: "choose", step: "backend", args: [], current: from,
             text: t("backend.menu", deps.currentDisplay(instance)),
-            choices: installed.map(b => ({ token: b, label: b === from ? `✓ ${b}` : b })),
+            choices: rows.map(row => {
+                const reason = why(row);
+                const label = row.backend === from ? `✓ ${row.backend}` : row.state === "unknown" ? `${row.backend} — ${t("backend.reason_unchecked")}` : row.backend;
+                return reason ? { token: row.backend, label: `${row.backend} — ${reason}`, disabled: reason } : { token: row.backend, label };
+            }),
         };
     }
     const backend = args[0].toLowerCase();
-    if (!installed.includes(backend)) {
-        return { kind: "refuse", text: t("backend.not_installed", args[0], installed.join(", ") || "—") };
+    const row = rows.find(r => r.backend === backend);
+    if (!row) {
+        return { kind: "refuse", text: t("backend.unknown_backend", args[0], rows.map(r => r.backend).join(", ") || "—") };
     }
+    const reason = why(row);
+    if (reason)
+        return { kind: "refuse", text: t("backend.unusable", backend, reason) };
     // The same backend is not a switch: nothing to restart for. A model or effort on it is /model's and /effort's job.
     if (backend === from)
         return { kind: "refuse", text: t("backend.same", instance, backend), noop: true };

package/dist/backend-command.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"backend-command.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/backend-command.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAgBA,2GAA2G;AAC3G,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,eAAe,GAAG,SAAS,CAAC;AAEzC,oFAAoF;AACpF,MAAM,iBAAiB,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;AAoC7B,4GAA4G;AAC5G,MAAM,UAAU,eAAe,CAAC,CAA0B,EAAE,GAA8E;IACxI,QAAQ,GAAG,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;QAClB,KAAK,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,8BAA8B,CAAC,CAAC;QAC/D,KAAK,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,8BAA8B,CAAC,CAAC;QAC/D,KAAK,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,wBAAwB,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,UAAU,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1E,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC;IACvB,CAAC;AACH,CAAC;AAQD,uFAAuF;AACvF,SAAS,KAAK,CAAC,IAAwB,EAAE,GAAuB,EAAE,KAAoB;IACpF,IAAI,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI;QAAE,OAAO,KAAK,CAAC;IACjC,MAAM,SAAS,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IACtC,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,2BAA2B,EAAE,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAAC,CAAC;AACpG,CAAC;AAED,oHAAoH;AACpH,MAAM,UAAU,WAAW,CAAC,IAAwB,EAAE,IAAiB;IACrE,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,YAAY,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;IAC9F,OAAO,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;AACvH,CAAC;AAED;;;GAGG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,WAAW,CAAC,IAAY;IACtC,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,kBAAkB,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAE,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;AACxF,CAAC;AAED,4GAA4G;AAC5G,MAAM,UAAU,eAAe,CAAC,IAAuB;IACrD,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;AAC9D,CAAC;AAED;;;GAGG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,gBAAgB,CAAC,OAAe,EAAE,KAAa;IAC7D,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,IAAI,kBAAkB,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,KAAK;QAAE,OAAO,KAAK,CAAC;IACrF,OAAO,OAAO,KAAK,aAAa,IAAI,wBAAwB,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC;AAC3E,CAAC;AAED,8GAA8G;AAC9G,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,UAAU,WAAW,CAAC,IAAwB,EAAE,QAAgB,EAAE,IAAuB;IACnG,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACnB,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,CAAC;QAAE,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;IACzE,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;IAC3C,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC;IACjC,kHAAkH;IAClH,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,GAA0B,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACpG,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACtB,OAAO;YACL,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI;YACxD,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;YACtD,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE;gBACtB,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;gBACxB,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,KAAK,KAAK,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,0BAA0B,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC;gBACtJ,OAAO,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,MAAM,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;YAChI,CAAC,CAAC;SACH,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;IAED,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAE,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;IACvC,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,KAAK,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;IAClD,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;QACT,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,yBAAyB,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAE,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;IACtH,CAAC;IACD,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IACxB,IAAI,MAAM;QAAE,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,kBAAkB,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;IACpF,mHAAmH;IACnH,IAAI,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI;QAAE,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,cAAc,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,OAAO,CAAC,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;IAExG,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;IAC1C,MAAM,YAAY,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC;IAC7C,MAAM,YAAY,GAAG,CAAC,CAAgB,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACnE,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACtB,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,iBAAiB,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAChJ,OAAO;YACL,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI;YAC7D,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,oBAAoB,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,0BAA0B,EAAE,OAAO,CAAC;YACnF,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,iBAAiB,CAAC,KAAK,YAAY,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC;SAC3G,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;IAED,MAAM,QAAQ,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAE,CAAC;IAC1B,IAAI,KAAK,GAAkB,IAAI,CAAC;IAChC,IAAI,QAAQ,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,KAAK,eAAe,EAAE,CAAC;QAC/C,iHAAiH;QACjH,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,gBAAg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package/dist/bundled-skills.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+export declare const BUNDLED_SKILLS_DIR: string;
+/** The bundled skills: name and the description from its frontmatter. */
+export declare function listBundledSkills(dir?: string): Array<{
+    name: string;
+    description: string;
+}>;
+/** One bundled skill's SKILL.md, whole; or why not (a name that is not one of them). */
+export declare function readBundledSkill(name: string, dir?: string): {
+    ok: true;
+    text: string;
+} | {
+    ok: false;
+    error: string;
+};

package/dist/bundled-skills.js

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+/**
+ * #2163: the skills AgEnD ships (general-knowledge/skills/<name>/SKILL.md, next to this file in src/ and dist/), read
+ * on demand. Where a CLI has no skill folder, or a workspace AgEnD does not manage gets none published, an agent still
+ * reads one with `agend-agent skill <name>`. Read-only and local: no fleet call, nothing written. A skill is
+ * documentation shipped in the package, so any instance may read any of them (no role gate: nothing to protect).
+ */
+import { existsSync, readdirSync, readFileSync } from "node:fs";
+import { dirname, join } from "node:path";
+import { fileURLToPath } from "node:url";
+export const BUNDLED_SKILLS_DIR = join(dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url)), "general-knowledge", "skills");
+const NAME = /^[a-z0-9][a-z0-9-]{0,63}$/;
+/** The bundled skills: name and the description from its frontmatter. */
+export function listBundledSkills(dir = BUNDLED_SKILLS_DIR) {
+    if (!existsSync(dir))
+        return [];
+    return readdirSync(dir).filter(n => NAME.test(n) && existsSync(join(dir, n, "SKILL.md"))).sort().map(name => {
+        const head = readFileSync(join(dir, name, "SKILL.md"), "utf-8").match(/^---[ \t]*\r?\n([\s\S]*?)\r?\n---/)?.[1] ?? "";
+        const description = head.match(/^description:[ \t]*(.*)$/m)?.[1]?.trim().replace(/^["']|["']$/g, "") ?? "";
+        return { name, description };
+    });
+}
+/** One bundled skill's SKILL.md, whole; or why not (a name that is not one of them). */
+export function readBundledSkill(name, dir = BUNDLED_SKILLS_DIR) {
+    const known = listBundledSkills(dir).map(s => s.name);
+    if (!NAME.test(name) || !known.includes(name))
+        return { ok: false, error: `no bundled skill "${name.slice(0, 64)}" — one of: ${known.join(", ")}` };
+    return { ok: true, text: readFileSync(join(dir, name, "SKILL.md"), "utf-8") };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=bundled-skills.js.map

package/dist/bundled-skills.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/cache-analysis.d.ts

@@ -13,6 +13,10 @@
  *   window saves its expiry cost; any other gap only pays for its pings. After a session's last request the pings
  *   are pure loss, up to the moment the next session of the instance starts, or the window ends.
  * - Recommendation: on when the simulated pings cost less than the expiries they prevent (by a margin), else off.
+ * - #2010: the TTL a 5-minute label really behaves as (effectiveTtl, agreed with #1469's keep-warm design): since
+ *   2026-10-15 Claude's "5m" writes often survive an hour. Measured over the last 7 days of 5–60 minute gaps: rarely
+ *   rewritten → the simulation treats it as 1 hour; mostly rewritten → recommend the 1-hour setting
+ *   (backend_options.claude-code.prompt_cache_ttl), not keep-warm; too few gaps → the label, marked as an estimate.
  *
  * Money is list price (cache-prices.ts). If any model the window touches — requests, pinged contexts, idle tails —
  * is missing from the table, the whole instance is weighed in input-price units instead (write 1.25x, 1-hour write
@@ -27,6 +31,8 @@ export interface SimOptions {
     to: number;
     /** Codex: use each event's measured write (the instance records real writes) rather than the estimate. */
     measured: boolean;
+    /** #2010: the TTL a labelled cache behaves as (ping interval and expiry); writes stay priced at the label. Default: the label. */
+    ttlFor?: (labelSec: number) => number;
 }
 export interface SimTail {
     t: number;
@@ -61,12 +67,52 @@ export declare function simulate(gaps: readonly GapEvent[], tails: readonly SimT
  * that starts at or after it — one that starts at the same instant leaves no idle time), or `to`.
  */
 export declare function sessionTails(ledger: Ledger, to: number): SimTail[];
+/**
+ * The TTL the instance's latest session writes with (each gap keeps its own): the latest session end's, else the
+ * backend's default (Claude 1 hour, Codex 30 minutes). effectiveTtl's `latestLabelSec` (Fable, #1469's executor).
+ */
+export declare function latestLabelSec(ledger: Ledger, backend: Backend, to: number): number;
+/** #2010: the evidence window and thresholds of effectiveTtl (one definition for the report and #1469's keep-warm). */
+export declare const EFFECTIVE_TTL_WINDOW_MS: number;
+export declare const EFFECTIVE_TTL_MIN_SAMPLES = 10;
+/** At most this share of 5–60 minute gaps rewritten: a 5-minute label behaves as 1 hour. */
+export declare const EFFECTIVE_TTL_HIT_MAX = 0.1;
+/** At least this share rewritten: it really is 5 minutes — switch the instance to the 1-hour setting. */
+export declare const EFFECTIVE_TTL_MISS_MIN = 0.5;
+export interface EffectiveTtl {
+    /** Seconds the cache behaves as now (what #1469's keep-warm would ping by); null: not enough evidence. */
+    ttlSec: number | null;
+    /**
+     * What a 5-minute label measured as over the evidence window, whatever the latest label (Fable, #1469): the
+     * simulation judges every 5-minute gap by it — a later switch back to 1 hour must not recast them. null: too few.
+     */
+    fiveMinute: 3600 | 300 | null;
+    basis: "label_1h" | "measured" | "insufficient" | "codex" | "label";
+    /** The gap-miss signal: 5–60 minute gaps after a 5-minute write in the last 7 days, and how many were rewritten. */
+    sample: number;
+    misses: number;
+    rate: number | null;
+}
+/**
+ * #2010 / #1469: the TTL an instance's cache behaves as. Pure. `gaps`: the ledger's gap events (real requests only —
+ * keep-warm pings, once there are any, are not requests). `latestLabelSec`: the TTL the latest session wrote with.
+ * A sample is a gap of 300 s < gap ≤ 3600 s after a 5-minute write, ending in (to − 7 days, to]; a miss is the same
+ * expiry test as simulate: the write after the gap is at least half the context cached before it.
+ */
+export declare function effectiveTtl(gaps: readonly GapEvent[], latestLabelSec: number, backend: Backend, to: number): EffectiveTtl;
 /** Codex GPT-5.6 and later bill cache writes and keep a prefix 30 minutes. */
 export declare const isOpenAiTtlModel: (model: string) => boolean;
 export interface InstanceAnalysis {
     requests: number;
     /** The TTL the instance's latest session uses (each gap is judged by its own session's TTL). */
     ttlSec: number;
+    /** #2010: what that TTL behaves as, and the gap-miss signal it is judged by. */
+    effectiveTtl: EffectiveTtl;
+    /** #2001: cache-write tokens in the window by the TTL they were written with (Claude's split; Codex: none). */
+    writeMix: {
+        "5m": number;
+        "1h": number;
+    };
     /** Writes (and so expiries) are estimated: Codex records none. Also true for a Codex model whose TTL is assumed. */
     estimate: boolean;
     priced: boolean;
@@ -77,7 +123,7 @@ export interface InstanceAnalysis {
     share: number | null;
     recommendation: {
         on: boolean;
-        reason: "quiet" | "never_expired" | "saves" | "costs_more";
+        reason: "quiet" | "never_expired" | "saves" | "costs_more" | "switch_to_1h" | "insufficient_evidence";
         pingsPerExpiry?: number;
     };
 }

package/dist/cache-analysis.js

@@ -13,6 +13,10 @@
  *   window saves its expiry cost; any other gap only pays for its pings. After a session's last request the pings
  *   are pure loss, up to the moment the next session of the instance starts, or the window ends.
  * - Recommendation: on when the simulated pings cost less than the expiries they prevent (by a margin), else off.
+ * - #2010: the TTL a 5-minute label really behaves as (effectiveTtl, agreed with #1469's keep-warm design): since
+ *   2026-10-15 Claude's "5m" writes often survive an hour. Measured over the last 7 days of 5–60 minute gaps: rarely
+ *   rewritten → the simulation treats it as 1 hour; mostly rewritten → recommend the 1-hour setting
+ *   (backend_options.claude-code.prompt_cache_ttl), not keep-warm; too few gaps → the label, marked as an estimate.
  *
  * Money is list price (cache-prices.ts). If any model the window touches — requests, pinged contexts, idle tails —
  * is missing from the table, the whole instance is weighed in input-price units instead (write 1.25x, 1-hour write
@@ -36,9 +40,11 @@ export function pingsBetween(t, end, intervalMs, from, to) {
 export function simulate(gaps, tails, o) {
     const res = { pastTtl: 0, expired: 0, rewriteTokens: 0, expiryCost: 0, pings: 0, pingCost: 0, tailPings: 0, tailCost: 0, net: 0, estimated: false };
     let saved = 0;
-    for (const [tEnd, gap, ctx, ctxModel, ttl, model, prompt, measured, estimated] of gaps) {
+    const live = o.ttlFor ?? ((label) => label);
+    for (const [tEnd, gap, ctx, ctxModel, label, model, prompt, measured, estimated] of gaps) {
         if (tEnd < o.from)
             continue;
+        const ttl = live(label);
         const start = tEnd - Math.round(gap * 1000);
         const pings = pingsBetween(start, tEnd, pingIntervalMs(ttl), o.from, o.to);
         if (pings) {
@@ -55,7 +61,7 @@ export function simulate(gaps, tails, o) {
         const lost = Math.min(rewrite, ctx);
         if (ctx > 0 && lost >= ctx / 2) {
             const r = o.rates(model, prompt);
-            const cost = lost * (writeRate(r, ttl) - r.read) / M;
+            const cost = lost * (writeRate(r, label) - r.read) / M;
             res.expired++;
             res.rewriteTokens += lost;
             res.expiryCost += cost;
@@ -63,7 +69,7 @@ export function simulate(gaps, tails, o) {
         }
     }
     for (const tail of tails) {
-        const n = pingsBetween(tail.t, tail.until, pingIntervalMs(tail.ttl), o.from, o.to);
+        const n = pingsBetween(tail.t, tail.until, pingIntervalMs(live(tail.ttl)), o.from, o.to);
         if (!n)
             continue;
         res.tailPings += n;
@@ -86,6 +92,47 @@ export function sessionTails(ledger, to) {
         return { t: s.last.t, ctx: s.last.ctx, model: s.last.model, ttl: s.last.ttl, until };
     });
 }
+/**
+ * The TTL the instance's latest session writes with (each gap keeps its own): the latest session end's, else the
+ * backend's default (Claude 1 hour, Codex 30 minutes). effectiveTtl's `latestLabelSec` (Fable, #1469's executor).
+ */
+export function latestLabelSec(ledger, backend, to) {
+    const latest = sessionTails(ledger, to).reduce((a, t) => (!a || t.t > a.t ? t : a), null);
+    return latest ? latest.ttl : backend === "codex" ? 1800 : 3600;
+}
+/** #2010: the evidence window and thresholds of effectiveTtl (one definition for the report and #1469's keep-warm). */
+export const EFFECTIVE_TTL_WINDOW_MS = 7 * 86_400_000;
+export const EFFECTIVE_TTL_MIN_SAMPLES = 10;
+/** At most this share of 5–60 minute gaps rewritten: a 5-minute label behaves as 1 hour. */
+export const EFFECTIVE_TTL_HIT_MAX = 0.1;
+/** At least this share rewritten: it really is 5 minutes — switch the instance to the 1-hour setting. */
+export const EFFECTIVE_TTL_MISS_MIN = 0.5;
+/**
+ * #2010 / #1469: the TTL an instance's cache behaves as. Pure. `gaps`: the ledger's gap events (real requests only —
+ * keep-warm pings, once there are any, are not requests). `latestLabelSec`: the TTL the latest session wrote with.
+ * A sample is a gap of 300 s < gap ≤ 3600 s after a 5-minute write, ending in (to − 7 days, to]; a miss is the same
+ * expiry test as simulate: the write after the gap is at least half the context cached before it.
+ */
+export function effectiveTtl(gaps, latestLabelSec, backend, to) {
+    let sample = 0, misses = 0;
+    for (const [tEnd, gap, ctx, , label, , , measured, estimated] of gaps) {
+        if (tEnd <= to - EFFECTIVE_TTL_WINDOW_MS || tEnd > to || label !== 300 || !(gap > 300 && gap <= 3600) || !(ctx > 0))
+            continue;
+        sample++;
+        if (Math.min(measured ?? estimated, ctx) >= ctx / 2)
+            misses++;
+    }
+    const rate = sample ? misses / sample : null;
+    const fiveMinute = sample < EFFECTIVE_TTL_MIN_SAMPLES ? null : rate <= EFFECTIVE_TTL_HIT_MAX ? 3600 : rate >= EFFECTIVE_TTL_MISS_MIN ? 300 : null;
+    const out = (ttlSec, basis) => ({ ttlSec, fiveMinute, basis, sample, misses, rate });
+    if (backend === "codex")
+        return out(1800, "codex");
+    if (latestLabelSec >= 3600)
+        return out(3600, "label_1h");
+    if (latestLabelSec !== 300)
+        return out(latestLabelSec, "label");
+    return fiveMinute === null ? out(null, "insufficient") : out(fiveMinute, "measured");
+}
 /** Codex GPT-5.6 and later bill cache writes and keep a prefix 30 minutes. */
 export const isOpenAiTtlModel = (model) => /^gpt-(5\.(6|[7-9])|[6-9])/.test(model);
 /** Requests in a window below this are too few to say anything. */
@@ -95,6 +142,11 @@ export function analyzeLedger(ledger, o) {
     const inWindow = (h) => h + 3_600_000 > o.from && h <= o.to;
     const tails = sessionTails(ledger, o.to);
     const estimatedTotals = o.backend === "codex" && !ledger.writesSeen;
+    const ttlSec = latestLabelSec(ledger, o.backend, o.to);
+    const effective = effectiveTtl(ledger.gaps, ttlSec, o.backend, o.to);
+    // Each gap by its own label: a 5-minute one by what 5 minutes measured as (even after a switch back to 1 hour);
+    // without evidence, as labelled. Codex keeps its own.
+    const ttlFor = (label) => (o.backend === "claude" && label === 300 && effective.fiveMinute !== null ? effective.fiveMinute : label);
     // One unit for the whole instance: dollars when every model that contributes to this window is priced — the
     // window's requests, and whatever the simulation itself prices (a pinged context, an expired request, an idle tail).
     // A probe run records exactly the models the simulation asks a rate for.
@@ -106,11 +158,12 @@ export function analyzeLedger(ledger, o) {
             requestModels.add(mk.slice(0, mk.lastIndexOf("|")));
     }
     const touched = new Set(requestModels);
-    simulate(ledger.gaps, tails, { rates: (model) => { touched.add(model); return UNITS; }, from: o.from, to: o.to, measured: !estimatedTotals });
+    simulate(ledger.gaps, tails, { rates: (model) => { touched.add(model); return UNITS; }, from: o.from, to: o.to, measured: !estimatedTotals, ttlFor });
     const priced = [...touched].every((m) => listed(m, 0) !== null);
     const rates = (model, prompt) => (priced ? listed(model, prompt) : null) ?? UNITS;
     const gapBuckets = new Array(GAP_BUCKETS).fill(0);
     let requests = 0, totalCost = 0;
+    const writeMix = { "5m": 0, "1h": 0 };
     for (const [hk, hour] of Object.entries(ledger.hours)) {
         if (!inWindow(Number(hk)))
             continue;
@@ -119,28 +172,35 @@ export function analyzeLedger(ledger, o) {
             const bar = mk.lastIndexOf("|");
             const model = mk.slice(0, bar), long = mk.slice(bar + 1) === "1";
             requests += n;
+            writeMix["5m"] += write5m;
+            writeMix["1h"] += write1h;
             const r = rates(model, long ? Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER : 0);
             // Codex on GPT-5.6+ with no recorded writes: its uncached input is what got written (the estimate).
             const uncachedRate = estimatedTotals && isOpenAiTtlModel(model) ? r.write : r.input;
             totalCost += (uncached * uncachedRate + read * r.read + write5m * r.write5m + write1h * r.write1h + write * r.write + output * r.output) / M;
         }
     }
-    const sim = simulate(ledger.gaps, tails, { rates, from: o.from, to: o.to, measured: !estimatedTotals });
-    const latest = tails.reduce((a, t) => (!a || t.t > a.t ? t : a), null);
-    const ttlSec = latest ? latest.ttl : o.backend === "codex" ? 1800 : 3600;
+    const sim = simulate(ledger.gaps, tails, { rates, from: o.from, to: o.to, measured: !estimatedTotals, ttlFor });
+    const unproven = effective.basis === "insufficient";
+    // A 5-minute gap in this window simulated by its label, for want of evidence: what is shown is an estimate.
+    const labelled5m = o.backend === "claude" && effective.fiveMinute === null && ledger.gaps.some(([t, , , , label]) => label === 300 && t >= o.from && t <= o.to);
     const assumedTtl = o.backend === "codex" && [...requestModels].some((m) => !isOpenAiTtlModel(m));
     let recommendation;
     if (requests < MIN_REQUESTS)
         recommendation = { on: false, reason: "quiet" };
+    else if (effective.basis === "measured" && effective.ttlSec === 300)
+        recommendation = { on: false, reason: "switch_to_1h" };
     else if (!sim.expired)
         recommendation = { on: false, reason: "never_expired" };
+    else if (unproven)
+        recommendation = { on: false, reason: "insufficient_evidence" };
     else if (sim.net > 0 && sim.net >= sim.expiryCost * 0.1)
         recommendation = { on: true, reason: "saves" };
     else
         recommendation = { on: false, reason: "costs_more", pingsPerExpiry: Math.round((sim.pings + sim.tailPings) / sim.expired) };
     return {
         // An estimate when anything shown used one: the totals (Codex with no recorded write), a gap's rewrite, a TTL.
-        requests, ttlSec, estimate: (estimatedTotals && requests > 0) || sim.estimated || assumedTtl, priced, models: [...requestModels].sort(), gapBuckets, sim,
+        requests, ttlSec, effectiveTtl: effective, writeMix, estimate: (estimatedTotals && requests > 0) || sim.estimated || assumedTtl || (unproven && requests > 0) || labelled5m, priced, models: [...requestModels].sort(), gapBuckets, sim,
         totalCost, share: totalCost > 0 ? sim.expiryCost / totalCost : null, recommendation,
     };
 }

package/dist/cache-analysis.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/cache-ledger.d.ts

@@ -41,10 +41,20 @@ export declare const GAP_EVENT_SEC = 240;
 export declare const KEEP_DAYS = 31;
 /** [requests, uncached, read, write5m, write1h, write, output] */
 export type HourTotals = [number, number, number, number, number, number, number];
+/**
+ * `src` (#2122): the same totals split by where they were read from — `sourceKey(reader, profile)`: the transcript reader
+ * (claude, codex) and the credential profile (claude: its config dir's profile, "default" without one; codex:
+ * "unrecorded", since a rollout does not say which login wrote it). Each source keeps its own exact totals. What `m`
+ * holds beyond the sum of `src` was counted before #2122 and reads as unknown (hourSources) — never relabelled with
+ * today's backend or profile.
+ */
 export interface HourAgg {
     m: Record<string, HourTotals>;
     g: number[];
+    src?: Record<string, Record<string, HourTotals>>;
 }
+/** A source of an hour's totals: the reader that read them and the profile it read them under. */
+export declare const sourceKey: (reader: TranscriptKind, profile: string) => string;
 /**
  * One long gap: [tEnd, gapSec, contextCached, contextModel, ttlSec, model, promptAfter, measuredWrite, estimatedWrite].
  * - `contextCached`/`contextModel`: what the previous request left cached, and its model — what a ping would read.
@@ -99,9 +109,12 @@ export declare function claudeTtlAfter(turn: Turn, current: number | undefined):
  * Fold one turn into the ledger, in file order. Turns older than `cutoff` only move the session's last point (the
  * next gap needs it); everything else is counted. Pure apart from mutating `ledger`.
  */
-export declare function addTurn(ledger: Ledger, file: FileCursor, turn: Turn, cutoff: number): void;
-/** Drop what is older than `cutoff` (hours and gap events). */
-export declare function pruneLedger(ledger: Ledger, cutoff: number): void;
+export declare function addTurn(ledger: Ledger, file: FileCursor, turn: Turn, cutoff: number, profile?: string): void;
+/**
+ * Drop what is older than `cutoff` (hours and gap events). `foldedThrough` (#2122): an hour is dropped only once the
+ * usage rollup holds it (usage-rollup.ts: fold, then prune) — never one after the rollup's durable checkpoint.
+ */
+export declare function pruneLedger(ledger: Ledger, cutoff: number, foldedThrough?: number): void;
 /** The turn a Claude Code transcript line records, or null; a message already counted (`file.ids`) is null too. */
 export declare function claudeLine(line: ScanLine, file: FileCursor): Turn | null;
 /** The turn a Codex rollout line records, or null. A `turn_context` line updates the file's model. */

package/dist/cache-ledger.js

@@ -25,6 +25,8 @@ export const GAP_BUCKETS = GAP_EDGES.length + 1;
 /** Gaps at least this long are kept one by one (the shortest keep-warm interval is a 5-minute TTL's 270 s). */
 export const GAP_EVENT_SEC = 240;
 export const KEEP_DAYS = 31;
+/** A source of an hour's totals: the reader that read them and the profile it read them under. */
+export const sourceKey = (reader, profile) => `${reader}:${profile}`;
 /** A dictionary keyed by names from outside (paths, model ids): every key an own property (#1467 lesson). */
 const dict = () => Object.create(null);
 export function emptyLedger() { return { v: 2, files: dict(), hours: dict(), gaps: [] }; }
@@ -44,7 +46,17 @@ export function reviveLedger(raw) {
         for (const [mk, tot] of Object.entries(v.m ?? {}))
             if (Array.isArray(tot) && tot.length === 7)
                 m[mk] = tot;
-        l.hours[k] = { m, g: v.g };
+        const src = dict();
+        for (const [sk, sm] of Object.entries(v.src ?? {})) {
+            if (!/^(?:claude|codex):.{1,120}$/s.test(sk) || !sm || typeof sm !== "object")
+                continue;
+            const into = dict();
+            for (const [mk, tot] of Object.entries(sm))
+                if (Array.isArray(tot) && tot.length === 7 && tot.every(n => Number.isFinite(n)))
+                    into[mk] = tot;
+            src[sk] = into;
+        }
+        l.hours[k] = { m, g: v.g, ...(Object.keys(src).length ? { src } : {}) };
     }
     if (Array.isArray(r.gaps))
         l.gaps = r.gaps.filter((g) => Array.isArray(g) && g.length === 9);
@@ -71,7 +83,7 @@ export function claudeTtlAfter(turn, current) {
  * Fold one turn into the ledger, in file order. Turns older than `cutoff` only move the session's last point (the
  * next gap needs it); everything else is counted. Pure apart from mutating `ledger`.
  */
-export function addTurn(ledger, file, turn, cutoff) {
+export function addTurn(ledger, file, turn, cutoff, profile) {
     const prev = file.last;
     const ttlBefore = file.kind === "claude" ? (file.ttl ?? CLAUDE_DEFAULT_TTL_SEC) : CODEX_TTL_SEC;
     if (file.kind === "claude")
@@ -85,14 +97,19 @@ export function addTurn(ledger, file, turn, cutoff) {
     const hk = String(hourOf(turn.t));
     const hour = ledger.hours[hk] ??= { m: dict(), g: new Array(GAP_BUCKETS).fill(0) };
     const mk = modelKey(turn.model, turn.prompt);
-    const tot = hour.m[mk] ??= [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0];
-    tot[0] += 1;
-    tot[1] += turn.uncached;
-    tot[2] += turn.read;
-    tot[3] += turn.write5m;
-    tot[4] += turn.write1h;
-    tot[5] += turn.write ?? 0;
-    tot[6] += turn.output;
+    const bump = (tot) => {
+        tot[0] += 1;
+        tot[1] += turn.uncached;
+        tot[2] += turn.read;
+        tot[3] += turn.write5m;
+        tot[4] += turn.write1h;
+        tot[5] += turn.write ?? 0;
+        tot[6] += turn.output;
+    };
+    bump(hour.m[mk] ??= [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]);
+    // #2122: and under its source — the reader that read it (this file's kind) and the profile it was read under.
+    const src = (hour.src ??= dict())[sourceKey(file.kind, profile ?? "unknown")] ??= dict();
+    bump(src[mk] ??= [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]);
     if (!prev)
         return;
     const gap = (turn.t - prev.t) / 1000;
@@ -105,10 +122,13 @@ export function addTurn(ledger, file, turn, cutoff) {
     const estimated = file.kind === "claude" ? turn.write5m + turn.write1h : turn.uncached + (turn.write ?? 0);
     ledger.gaps.push([turn.t, gap, prev.ctx, prev.model, ttlBefore, turn.model, turn.prompt, measured, estimated]);
 }
-/** Drop what is older than `cutoff` (hours and gap events). */
-export function pruneLedger(ledger, cutoff) {
+/**
+ * Drop what is older than `cutoff` (hours and gap events). `foldedThrough` (#2122): an hour is dropped only once the
+ * usage rollup holds it (usage-rollup.ts: fold, then prune) — never one after the rollup's durable checkpoint.
+ */
+export function pruneLedger(ledger, cutoff, foldedThrough = Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY) {
     for (const k of Object.keys(ledger.hours))
-        if (Number(k) + HOUR <= cutoff)
+        if (Number(k) + HOUR <= cutoff && Number(k) <= foldedThrough)
             delete ledger.hours[k];
     if (ledger.gaps.length && ledger.gaps[0][0] < cutoff)
         ledger.gaps = ledger.gaps.filter((g) => g[0] >= cutoff);