@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.9 → 1.0.11
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/covered.md +1 -1
- package/ep01.md +91 -91
- package/ep01.script.txt +69 -71
- package/feed.xml +4 -4
- package/glossary.md +6 -0
- package/package.json +1 -1
- package/ep01.mp3 +0 -0
package/covered.md
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Running log. Read before writing a new episode: avoid repeating material, and only make callbacks to episodes listed here.
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- **Ep 1** (Mon) — *The Units and the Language of the Desk*:
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- **Ep 1** (Mon) — *The Units and the Language of the Desk*: Units and quoting grammar; three desk dialogues; see glossary. Pulse: Dec corn 4.65, Nov beans 11.82, Sep wheat 6.51; Black Sea lifting wheat; Midwest rain weighing on corn/beans; WASDE Wednesday named with trade expectations 182.4 corn / 52.9 beans.
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- **Ep 2** (Tue) — *Flat Price vs Basis*: Flat price vs basis: cash = futures + basis; quoting 'November plus 80'; desk kills flat price via hedge; long the basis (physical + short futures) vs short the basis (sold unowned + long futures placeholder, crusher example); basis moved by freight, quality, congestion, urgency, farmer selling; basis risk as the chosen, analyzable risk. Vocab: flat price, cash price, differential, plus eighty, hedged position, long/short the basis, basis risk. Example: 66,000 t Santos cargo at Nov +80 — board - hedged to zero (~.4M each way) vs +10c basis = ~40k kept.
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package/ep01.md
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# Commodity Desk Daily —
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# Commodity Desk Daily — Ep 1
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## The Units and the Language of the Desk
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*A daily 10-minute briefing on physical commodity trading.*
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---
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### Key takeaways
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- Chicago quotes
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- Physical
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- A **bushel is a volume, not a weight** — so its weight is fixed by law and differs by crop: 60 lb for soybeans and wheat, 56 lb for corn, 32 lb for oats. Tonne conversions therefore differ by crop too (~36.74 bu/t soybeans, ~39.37 bu/t corn).
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- Chicago quotes **cents per bushel**; one lot is **5,000 bushels**; the tick is **¼ cent = $12.50**, so one cent = $50 per lot.
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- "I'm long fifty December corn" = 50 lots = 250,000 bu ≈ 6,350 t, and each 1¢ move = $2,500.
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- Units are not universal: Matif wheat is **€/tonne, 50 t lots**; cotton is cents/lb; rice is $/cwt; soybean meal trades in **short tons** (2,000 lb ≈ 907 kg), not metric tonnes — a 10% error if confused.
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- Physical cargoes are quoted as a **differential to a named futures month** ("plus eighty-five"), not as a flat price. The screen sets the flat price; the negotiation is about the differential.
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- Every quote names a **month**, because prompt and deferred shipment are different products with different prices.
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- The verbs are precise: **bid / offer / hit / lift / done / workable / indication / washout.**
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- Quantity language carries contractual meaning: "5% more or less at seller's option" and the **laycan** window are obligations, not approximations.
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### Vocabulary of the day
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| Term |
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| Term | Meaning |
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| Bushel | Volume measure (~35 L): 60 lb
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## Market pulse (Monday Aug 10)
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Softs led. ICE **certified arabica stocks fell to 244,172 bags — a 2½-year low** — after slower Brazilian shipments following June rains; arabica jumped over 4% Friday and December held that range Monday. Robusta is the mirror image: certified stocks at a **4½-month high**. **October raw sugar printed new highs for the move** as Brazil's Center-South crushed sharply less cane in June and the new season runs behind last year. **December cotton rallied to its highest since mid-May** on a hot, dry US Cotton Belt and a softer dollar. Grains marked time ahead of **Wednesday's WASDE**; China booked 238,000 t of US soybeans and unknown buyers took 105,000 t of corn.
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| Bushel (bu) | Volume measure (~35 L); legal weight per crop: 60 lb wheat/soybeans, 56 lb corn |
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| Cents per bushel | Chicago quoting convention; "465" = $4.65/bu |
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| Tick | Smallest price increment: ¼ cent = $12.50 per lot |
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| Lot / contract | 5,000 bu on CBOT grains; 50 t on Matif wheat |
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| cwt | Hundredweight = 100 lb; used for rice and cotton |
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| Short ton | 2,000 lb ≈ 907 kg (vs metric tonne = 1,000 kg); soybean meal trades in short tons |
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| Differential / basis | Price expressed against a futures month: "plus 85" = 85¢/bu over |
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| Prompt vs deferred | Loading now vs loading in a later window |
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| Month codes | H Mar, K May, N Jul, U Sep, Z Dec |
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| Bid / Offer | Where someone will buy / sell |
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| Hit / Lift | Sell into the bid / buy from the offer |
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| Done | The trade happened at that level |
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| Workable | The price is negotiable |
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| Indication | A guide price, not firm |
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| Washout | Cancelling a contract by settling the cash difference |
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| Laycan | Window in which the vessel may present for loading |
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| 5% more or less | Contractual tolerance on cargo size, at seller's option |
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### Market pulse
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December corn ~$4.65/bu, November soybeans ~$11.82/bu, September Chicago wheat ~$6.51/bu. Wheat led higher on Black Sea supply disruption; corn and beans stayed heavy as 1–3 inches of rain crossed Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. **Wednesday brings USDA Crop Production and WASDE**: the trade expects corn yield near 182.4 bu/acre (slightly below the current estimate) and soybeans near 52.9.
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##
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## Quiz — Day 1
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**J-0 — Episode 1: The units and the language of the desk**
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**Q1
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**Q1.** A trader tells you: *"I'm short thirty December corn and long two Panamaxes of Brazilian beans, sixty thousand tonnes each."* Roughly how many bushels is each side, and why can you not net the two positions against each other?
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**Q2
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**Q2.** You are offered soybean meal at "$318" and told the seller is American. A colleague converts it to €/tonne by dividing by the EUR/USD rate and hands you the number. What has he almost certainly got wrong, and by roughly what percentage?
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**Q3
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**Q3.** Two quotes for the same origin land on your desk within an hour: *"plus 78, prompt"* and *"plus 85, November"*. A junior concludes the market rallied 7 cents in an hour. Why is that conclusion wrong, and what would actually have to be true for the two numbers to be comparable?
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*Answer in the conversation to get detailed feedback.*
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---
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<br><br>
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## ▼ SOLUTIONS BELOW — scroll only after answering ▼
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**
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**A1.** Thirty lots of corn = 30 × 5,000 = **150,000 bushels** (~3,810 t at 39.37 bu/t). The beans are 120,000 t ≈ **4.41 million bushels** (120,000 × 36.74). Two reasons they don't net: they are **different commodities** — corn and soybeans have their own supply-and-demand and their own futures contract — and the sizes are wildly different, roughly 1 to 29 in bushel terms. The trap is treating "bushels" as a common denominator: bushels of corn and bushels of soybeans are not fungible, and even the bushel-to-tonne factor differs between them.
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**
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**A2.** Chicago soybean meal is quoted in **US dollars per short ton**, not per metric tonne. A short ton is 2,000 lb ≈ 907.2 kg, so a metric tonne is about **10.2% more** meal. Converting currency without converting weight understates the €/tonne price by roughly a tenth — $318/short ton is about $350.5/metric tonne before any FX. On a 30,000 t cargo, that mistake is close to a million dollars.
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**
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**A3.** Nothing about the flat price is being quoted at all — both numbers are **differentials to futures**, and to different things. "Plus 78 prompt" is a cargo loading now; "plus 85 November" is a cargo loading in November, priced against the November board. They are different delivery periods and typically different futures months, so the 7-cent gap measures the market's view on **time and logistics**, not a rally. To compare them you would need the same shipment period and the same futures month — and then the difference would tell you something real about how tight prompt supply is versus November. This is the single most common beginner error: reading a differential as if it were a price.
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## The episode, in writing
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### Market pulse
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December corn is trading around $4.65/bu, November soybeans near $11.82, September Chicago wheat around $6.51. Wheat is the day's mover, up double digits on Black Sea supply disruption. Corn and beans are heavy: 1–3 inches of rain is falling across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, and August rain makes soybeans.
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Tomorrow (Wednesday) the USDA publishes Crop Production and WASDE. The trade expects corn yield around **182.4 bu/acre**, slightly below the current estimate, and soybeans near **52.9**. Those two numbers are worth remembering — they will frame the entire week.
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### The bushel, and why it is strange
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A bushel is not a weight. It is a volume — roughly 35 litres, historically a basket. Which creates an obvious problem: a basket of corn and a basket of soybeans do not weigh the same. So the trade fixed the weights by law. A bushel of soybeans or wheat is 60 pounds; a bushel of corn is 56; oats, 32.
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| Soybeans, wheat | 60 | ≈36.7 | ≈136 t |
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| Corn | 56 | ≈39.4 | ≈127 t |
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That is why the conversion to tonnes differs by crop: one tonne of soybeans is about 36.74 bushels, one tonne of corn about 39.37.
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Why does such a unit survive? It comes from the English grain trade, where grain was measured by volume before anyone weighed it, and Chicago inherited the convention in 1848 and never let it go. The rest of the world quotes dollars per tonne — so a grain trader converts between the two all day, in their head.
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### How prices are quoted
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Chicago quotes **cents per bushel**. "Corn is four sixty-five" means 465 cents — $4.65 — per bushel. The smallest increment is a quarter of a cent: a **tick**.
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One contract, one **lot**, is 5,000 bushels. So a one-cent move is $50 per lot, and a quarter-cent tick is $12.50.
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That lets you decode a sentence like *"I'm long fifty December corn"*: 50 contracts, 250,000 bushels, about 6,350 tonnes — and every cent the market moves is $2,500.
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> **BROKER:** Four sixty-two bid, at four sixty-two and a half.
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> **TRADER:** Buy me fifty at the half.
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> **BROKER:** Done. Fifty lots at four sixty-two and a half.
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Units are not universal. European wheat on Matif trades in euros per tonne, 50 tonnes to a lot. Cotton and rice quote cents per pound and dollars per hundredweight (cwt = 100 lb). And beware "tons": a metric tonne is 1,000 kg, an American short ton is 2,000 lb ≈ 907 kg. Chicago soybean meal trades in short tons. Confusing the two is a 10% error.
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### The part that matters most: nobody says the price
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> **BUYER:** November Santos, what have you got?
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> **SELLER:** I make you plus eighty-five.
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> **BUYER:** That's rich. Last one I saw trade was plus seventy-eight.
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> **SELLER:** On prompt, yes. You're asking me for November.
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No dollar figure was spoken. "Plus eighty-five" means 85 cents per bushel **above the November futures contract** in Chicago. That is a differential — a basis. The flat price comes from the screen; the differential is what these two are actually negotiating.
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And note the second half: *plus 78* was for prompt shipment, loading now; *plus 85* is for November. Different month, different cargo, different price.
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> **SELLER:** I can offer plus seventy-two over Z.
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> **BUYER:** I'm a buyer at plus sixty-eight.
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> **SELLER:** Can't get there. Plus seventy, fifty thousand tonnes, firm for ten minutes.
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> **BUYER:** Done. Seventy over Z, first half September.
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That seller's line is the sentence the episode opened with. Notice what never got said: a price. Both parties carry the board in their heads; the only number they argued about was the plus. And "firm for ten minutes" is an offer with a fuse — a **firm** offer is tradable, binding the moment someone says done, which is exactly why sellers put a clock on it.
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Which is why every quote names a month. Futures months carry letters — H March, K May, N July, U September, Z December — so a screen shows ZCZ6 for December 2026 corn. Out loud, nobody says that: they say "December corn", or just "the Z".
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### The verbs
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A **bid** is where someone will buy; an **offer** is where they will sell. **Hit** the bid and you sold to them; **lift** the offer and you bought from them. **"Trades at, done"** means it happened at that level. **Workable** means negotiable; **indication** means a guide, not a firm price. A **washout** is two parties who no longer want the cargo settling the cash difference instead of shipping anything.
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> **BROKER:** I've got fifty December offered at four sixty-six and a quarter.
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> **TRADER:** I'm bid four sixty-five and a half for fifty.
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> **BROKER:** He won't come down. Four sixty-six is workable.
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> **TRADER:** Take it. Fifty at four sixty-six.
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Three quarters of a cent apart. On fifty lots, that gap was $1,875 — small numbers, large multipliers. That is the scale at which a desk argues.
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### How quantity is spoken
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> **BROKER:** Someone hit a seventy-two bid this morning. I'd call your market seventy-two, seventy-eight.
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> **TRADER:** What's the parcel?
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> **EXECUTION:** Sixty thousand tonnes, five percent more or less at seller's option.
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> **TRADER:** Laycan?
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> **EXECUTION:** Fifteenth to the twenty-fifth of November.
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"Five percent more or less" means the cargo may vary by 5% either way — a ship is never loaded to the exact tonne, and the tolerance is contractual. **Laycan** is the window during which the vessel may present for loading; miss it and you are in breach.
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### Takeaway
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Units first: bushels are volume, weights differ by crop, so tonne conversions differ too. Cents per bushel, 5,000 bushels a lot, quarter-cent ticks.
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Quotes second: physical trades as a differential against a named futures month, not as a flat price.
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And the verbs are exact — bid, offer, hit, lift, done, workable.
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Some of this will still feel foreign for a week. That is the point: this is the language as it is actually spoken, not a simplified version of it.
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**Tomorrow:** what a commodity merchant actually does — and why, once the flat price is hedged away, that differential is the entire business.
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First, the pulse.
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A bushel
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Next episode: what a desk actually does with that plus. Flat price versus basis — why the number on the screen is not your price, and why the gap between them is where a physical merchant lives. ||| 0.4
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71
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The quiz for today is in the notes — three questions, all application, solutions below the fold. Same time tomorrow. ||| 0.5
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1
|
+
Welcome to Commodity Desk Daily, episode one. ||| 0.35
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|
2
|
+
Before we trade anything, we need to speak the language. ||| 0.5
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3
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+
Today: the units, the way prices are quoted, and the words people actually use on a trading floor. ||| 0.7
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4
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+
First, the market pulse. ||| 0.4
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5
|
+
Chicago corn for December sits around four dollars sixty-five a bushel. November soybeans near eleven eighty-two. September Chicago wheat around six fifty-one. ||| 0.45
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6
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+
Wheat is the mover, up double digits, on Black Sea supply disruption. Corn and beans are heavy, because one to three inches of rain is falling across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, and rain in August makes soybeans. ||| 0.5
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7
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+
And tomorrow, Wednesday, the U S D A publishes its Crop Production and supply and demand reports. ||| 0.35
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8
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+
The trade is looking for corn yield around one hundred eighty-two point four bushels an acre, slightly below the current estimate, and soybeans near fifty-two point nine. ||| 0.4
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9
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+
Keep those two numbers in your head. We will come back to them all week. ||| 0.7
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10
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Now. If you have been listening to that pulse thinking, a bushel of what, exactly — this episode is for you. ||| 0.5
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Let's start with the bushel, because it is the strangest unit you will meet. ||| 0.45
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A bushel is not a weight. It is a volume. About thirty-five litres, historically a basket. ||| 0.4
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13
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Which creates an obvious problem. A basket of corn and a basket of soybeans do not weigh the same. ||| 0.5
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So the trade fixed the weights by law. A bushel of soybeans or wheat is sixty pounds. A bushel of corn is fifty-six pounds. Oats, thirty-two. ||| 0.45
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15
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That is why the conversion to tonnes is different for every crop. ||| 0.35
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One tonne of soybeans is about thirty-six point seven bushels. One tonne of corn, about thirty-nine point four. ||| 0.5
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Why does it survive? Because it comes from the English grain trade, where grain was measured by volume before anyone weighed it, and Chicago inherited the convention in eighteen forty-eight and never let go. ||| 0.4
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18
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The rest of the world quotes dollars per tonne. So a grain trader converts between the two all day long, in their head. ||| 0.7
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Prices, then. Chicago quotes cents per bushel. ||| 0.35
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20
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When someone says corn is four sixty-five, they mean four hundred sixty-five cents, four dollars sixty-five, per bushel. ||| 0.4
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21
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The smallest move is a quarter of a cent. That is a tick. ||| 0.35
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One contract, one lot, is five thousand bushels. So a one cent move is fifty dollars a lot. A quarter-cent tick is twelve dollars fifty. ||| 0.5
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Now you can decode a sentence like: I am long fifty December corn. ||| 0.4
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That is fifty contracts. Two hundred fifty thousand bushels. About six thousand three hundred tonnes. And every cent the market moves is two and a half thousand dollars. ||| 0.6
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25
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Elsewhere the units change. European wheat on Matif trades in euros per tonne, fifty tonnes a lot. ||| 0.35
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26
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Cotton and rice quote cents per pound and dollars per hundredweight — a hundredweight being a hundred pounds, written c w t. ||| 0.4
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And be careful with tons. A metric tonne is a thousand kilos. An American short ton is two thousand pounds, about nine hundred seven kilos. Soybean meal in Chicago trades in short tons. Confusing the two is a ten percent error. ||| 0.7
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Here is the part that matters most. ||| 0.4
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On a physical desk, people very rarely say the price. ||| 0.5
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Listen to this. ||| 0.35
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BUYER: November Santos, what have you got? ||| 0.25
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SELLER: I make you plus eighty-five. ||| 0.25
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33
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BUYER: That's rich. Last one I saw trade was plus seventy-eight. ||| 0.25
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SELLER: On prompt, yes. You're asking me for November. ||| 0.6
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35
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Nobody said a number of dollars. ||| 0.35
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Plus eighty-five means eighty-five cents per bushel above the November futures contract in Chicago. ||| 0.4
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|
+
That is a differential — a basis. The flat price comes from the screen. The differential is what the two of them are actually negotiating. ||| 0.5
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+
And notice the second half of that exchange. Plus seventy-eight was for prompt shipment, loading now. Plus eighty-five is for November. Different month, different cargo, different price. ||| 0.5
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39
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+
Which is why every quote names a month. ||| 0.35
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40
|
+
Futures months have letters — H is March, K is May, N is July, U is September, Z is December. You will see ZCZ6 on a screen and it means corn, December, twenty twenty-six. ||| 0.45
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41
|
+
Out loud, nobody says that. They say December corn, or just the Z. ||| 0.7
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42
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+
Then there are the verbs, and they are precise. ||| 0.4
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43
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+
A bid is where someone will buy. An offer is where they will sell. ||| 0.35
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|
+
If you hit the bid, you sold to them. If you lift the offer, you bought from them. ||| 0.4
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45
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+
Trades at, done — the trade happened at that level. ||| 0.35
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|
46
|
+
Workable means the price is negotiable. Indication means it is not a firm price, only a guide. ||| 0.4
|
|
47
|
+
And a washout is when two parties who no longer want the cargo settle the difference in cash instead of shipping anything. ||| 0.6
|
|
48
|
+
One more exchange, so you hear a broker at work. ||| 0.35
|
|
49
|
+
BROKER: I've got fifty December offered at four sixty-six and a quarter. ||| 0.25
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|
50
|
+
TRADER: I'm bid four sixty-five and a half for fifty. ||| 0.25
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|
51
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+
BROKER: He won't come down. Four sixty-six is workable. ||| 0.25
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+
TRADER: Take it. Fifty at four sixty-six. ||| 0.55
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Three quarters of a cent apart. On fifty lots, that gap was one thousand eight hundred seventy-five dollars. ||| 0.4
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|
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That is the scale a desk argues at — small numbers, large multipliers. ||| 0.7
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|
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Last one. Notice how quantity is spoken. ||| 0.35
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TRADER: What's the parcel? ||| 0.25
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EXECUTION: Sixty thousand tonnes, five percent more or less at seller's option. ||| 0.25
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58
|
+
TRADER: Laycan? ||| 0.25
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59
|
+
EXECUTION: Fifteenth to the twenty-fifth of November. ||| 0.55
|
|
60
|
+
Five percent more or less means the cargo can vary by five percent either way — a ship is never loaded to the exact tonne. ||| 0.4
|
|
61
|
+
And laycan is the window during which the vessel may present for loading. Miss it and you are in breach. ||| 0.6
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62
|
+
So, the takeaway. ||| 0.4
|
|
63
|
+
Units first: bushels are volume, weights differ by crop, so tonne conversions differ too. Cents per bushel, five thousand bushels a lot, quarter-cent ticks. ||| 0.4
|
|
64
|
+
Quotes second: physical trades as a differential against a named futures month, not as a flat price. ||| 0.4
|
|
65
|
+
And the verbs are exact. Bid, offer, hit, lift, done, workable. ||| 0.5
|
|
66
|
+
Some of this will still feel foreign for a week. That is normal, and it is the point — this is the language as it is actually spoken, not a simplified version of it. ||| 0.4
|
|
67
|
+
Everything introduced today is written out in the glossary in your notes. ||| 0.6
|
|
68
|
+
Tomorrow: what a commodity merchant actually does — and why, once the flat price is hedged away, the differential you just heard being argued over is the entire business. ||| 0.4
|
|
69
|
+
The quiz is in your notes. See you then. ||| 0.3
|
package/feed.xml
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<title>Ep 1 — The Units and the Language of the Desk</title>
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<description>
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<enclosure url="https://
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<guid>https://
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<description>Bushels, lots, ticks and hundredweights — the units a trading floor actually uses, and why they are what they are. Then the grammar of a quote: why physical cargoes trade as a differential to a futures month, and what bid, offer, hit, lift, done and workable really mean. Three desk dialogues.</description>
|
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<enclosure url="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep01.mp3" length="4739372" type="audio/mpeg"/>
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<guid>https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep01.mp3</guid>
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<pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 05:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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<item>
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<title>Ep 2 — Flat Price vs Basis</title>
|
package/glossary.md
CHANGED
|
@@ -16,8 +16,13 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
|
|
|
16
16
|
- **differential (basis)** — the premium or discount to a named futures month, quoted as plus 80 or minus 20 _(ep 1)_
|
|
17
17
|
- **done** — the word that seals a trade _(ep 1)_
|
|
18
18
|
- **firm** — a tradable quote that binds if accepted, often with a time limit _(ep 1)_
|
|
19
|
+
- **five percent more or less** — the contractual tolerance on cargo size, exercised at the seller's option _(ep 1)_
|
|
19
20
|
- **flat price** — the full outright price level _(ep 1)_
|
|
20
21
|
- **hit** — your bid was taken by a seller _(ep 1)_
|
|
22
|
+
- **hit the bid** — to sell into someone else's bid _(ep 1)_
|
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23
|
+
- **indication** — a guide price that is not firm _(ep 1)_
|
|
24
|
+
- **laycan** — the window during which a vessel may present for loading _(ep 1)_
|
|
25
|
+
- **lift the offer** — to buy from someone else's offer _(ep 1)_
|
|
21
26
|
- **lifted** — your offer was taken by a buyer _(ep 1)_
|
|
22
27
|
- **lot** — one futures contract, 5,000 bushels for Chicago grains, the unit desks count positions in _(ep 1)_
|
|
23
28
|
- **metric tonne** — 2,204.6 lb, the grain trading weight unit outside the US _(ep 1)_
|
|
@@ -33,3 +38,4 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
|
|
|
33
38
|
- **washout** — cancelling two offsetting physical contracts by settling the price difference instead of shipping _(ep 1)_
|
|
34
39
|
- **work** — leave an order resting with a broker _(ep 1)_
|
|
35
40
|
- **work an order** — leave an order resting at your price and wait _(ep 1)_
|
|
41
|
+
- **workable** — the quoted price is negotiable _(ep 1)_
|
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