@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.8 → 1.0.10

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  Running log. Read before writing a new episode: avoid repeating material, and only make callbacks to episodes listed here.
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- - **Ep 1** (Mon) — *The Units and the Language of the Desk*: Units and desk-language primer: bushel as volume (60 lb beans/wheat, 56 lb corn), 36.7/39.4 bu per tonne, cents/bu quoting, 5,000-bu lot, tick = 1/4 cent = $12.50 and 1 cent = $50/lot, month codes F-Z ('the Z'), prompt vs deferred, metric vs short ton, cwt, softs points, verbs (bid, offer, work, lifted, hit, done, washed out), differential quoting 'November plus 80', urgency priced in the plus (prompt +92 vs Oct +85), why only the local part is negotiated. Three dialogues: order fill, lifted-vs-hit, Santos beans quote. Example: 50 lots Dec corn = 250k bu ~6,800 t = $2,500 per cent, and Chicago wheat 640c x 0.367 = $235/t vs Russian $223/t FOB. Pulse: Monday pre-WASDE, name-it level (Wednesday WASDE, corn yield ~182 bpa expected, 2nd-largest crop). Friday close: KC wheat 7.14 +14c and SRW 6.40 on Black Sea tension, corn 4.39/4.62, beans 11.60, China daily-sales bookings, arabica 3.15 with stocks at 2.5y lows, sugar 16.5c, Russian wheat ~$223/t FOB.
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+ - **Ep 1** (Tue) — *The Units and the Language of the Desk*: Units: bushel as volume (60 lb wheat/soybeans, 56 lb corn), tonne conversions, cents per bushel, 5000 bu lot, quarter-cent tick, Matif euros per tonne, cwt, short ton vs metric tonne. Quoting grammar: differentials (plus eighty-five) vs flat price, prompt vs deferred, month codes H K N U Z. Desk verbs: bid, offer, hit, lift, done, workable, indication, washout. Quantity language: 5 percent more or less, laycan. Three desk dialogues. Pulse: Dec corn 4.65, Nov beans 11.82, Sep wheat 6.51, Black Sea disruption lifting wheat, Midwest rain weighing on corn and beans, WASDE and Crop Production on Wednesday with trade looking for corn yield 182.4 and soybeans 52.9 (named the report and why it matters, kept brief).
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  - **Ep 2** (Tue) — *Flat Price vs Basis*: Flat price vs basis: cash = futures + basis; quoting 'November plus 80'; desk kills flat price via hedge; long the basis (physical + short futures) vs short the basis (sold unowned + long futures placeholder, crusher example); basis moved by freight, quality, congestion, urgency, farmer selling; basis risk as the chosen, analyzable risk. Vocab: flat price, cash price, differential, plus eighty, hedged position, long/short the basis, basis risk. Example: 66,000 t Santos cargo at Nov +80 — board - hedged to zero (~.4M each way) vs +10c basis = ~40k kept.
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- # Commodity Desk Daily — Episode 1: The Units and the Language of the Desk
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+ # Commodity Desk Daily — Ep 1
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+ ## The Units and the Language of the Desk
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- *Monday, August 10, 2026 · ~10 min listen*
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+ *A daily 10-minute briefing on physical commodity trading.*
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- ## Key takeaways
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+ ---
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+
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+ ### Key takeaways
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- - **The bushel is a volume measure, not a weight** — a legacy of the English grain trade, where grain was poured before it was weighed. For trading it is standardized by crop: **60 lb for soybeans and wheat, 56 lb for corn**. Hence the two conversion factors to memorize: **36.7 bu/tonne** (wheat, beans) and **39.4 bu/tonne** (corn).
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- - Chicago quotes grain in **cents per bushel** ("four thirty-nine" = $4.39/bu). The contract — the **lot** is **5,000 bushels** (~136 t of wheat/beans, ~127 t of corn). "Bought fifty" = fifty lots = 250,000 bu ≈ 6,800 t of wheat: a small ocean cargo in one sentence.
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- - **Know what a move is worth before you trade**: the tick in Chicago grains is ¼¢/bu = **$12.50 per lot**; a full cent = **$50 per lot**. On 50 lots, every cent is $2,500.
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- - Futures trade a **named delivery month**, each with a letter: F=Jan, H=Mar, K=May, N=Jul, U=Sep, X=Nov, Z=Dec ("the Z" = December). The nearby month is the **front / prompt**; further out is **deferred**.
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- - The **verbs carry information**: you *bid* to buy, *offer* to sell, *work* a resting order. If your offer is taken you were **lifted**; if your bid is taken you were **hit**. *Done* seals the trade. *Washed out* = two offsetting trades cancel, only the difference changes hands.
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- - Only the US talks in bushels. The rest of the world trades **dollars per metric tonne** (2,204.6 lb). Beware the **short ton** (2,000 lb — soybean meal trades in it): a 10% trap in any freight calculation.
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- - The conversion bridge: **¢/bu × 0.367 = $/t** (wheat, beans), **× 0.394** (corn). Worked live: Chicago wheat at 640¢ ≈ **$235/t** against Russian milling wheat offered near **$223/t FOB** the Black Sea. One unit, one world market, and you can watch them compete.
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- - Oddities: US rice (and cattle) quote in **$/cwt** (hundredweight = 100 lb). Softs (coffee, sugar, cotton) quote in **cents per pound** and count moves in **points** = 1/100 of a cent — "coffee up 300 points" is 3¢/lb.
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- - **A physical quote is a differential**: "November plus 80" = 80¢/bu over November futures. The futures leg is the world price both sides can hedge in one click — so the only number negotiated out loud is *the plus*, the local part: this port, this month, this quality, these ships. Urgency is priced there too ("prompt is plus 92"). Where that leads a desk is the next episode's subject.
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+ - A **bushel is a volume, not a weight** — so its weight is fixed by law and differs by crop: 60 lb for soybeans and wheat, 56 lb for corn, 32 lb for oats. Tonne conversions therefore differ by crop too (~36.74 bu/t soybeans, ~39.37 bu/t corn).
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+ - Chicago quotes **cents per bushel**; one lot is **5,000 bushels**; the tick is **¼ cent = $12.50**, so one cent = $50 per lot.
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+ - "I'm long fifty December corn" = 50 lots = 250,000 bu 6,350 t, and each move = $2,500.
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+ - Units are not universal: Matif wheat is **€/tonne, 50 t lots**; cotton is cents/lb; rice is $/cwt; soybean meal trades in **short tons** (2,000 lb 907 kg), not metric tonnes a 10% error if confused.
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+ - Physical cargoes are quoted as a **differential to a named futures month** ("plus eighty-five"), not as a flat price. The screen sets the flat price; the negotiation is about the differential.
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+ - Every quote names a **month**, because prompt and deferred shipment are different products with different prices.
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+ - The verbs are precise: **bid / offer / hit / lift / done / workable / indication / washout.**
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+ - Quantity language carries contractual meaning: "5% more or less at seller's option" and the **laycan** window are obligations, not approximations.
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- ## Vocabulary
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+ ### Vocabulary of the day
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- | Term | Desk meaning |
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+ | Term | Meaning |
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  |---|---|
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- | Bushel | Volume measure standardized into weight: 60 lb (soybeans, wheat), 56 lb (corn) |
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- | Cents per bushel | Chicago grain quoting unit $4.39/bu is spoken "four thirty-nine" |
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- | Lot / contract | One futures contract; 5,000 bu for Chicago grains |
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- | Tick | Smallest price increment — ¼¢/bu in Chicago grains = $12.50/lot |
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- | Point (softs) | 1/100 of a cent per pound; "up 300 points" = +3¢/lb |
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- | Month codes | F, G, H, J, K, M, N, Q, U, V, X, Z = Jan…Dec; "the Z" = December |
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- | Front / prompt | The nearby month or shipment window; **deferred** = further out |
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- | Metric tonne vs short ton | 2,204.6 lb vs 2,000 lb soybean meal trades in short tons |
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- | Cwt | Hundredweight, 100 lb quoting unit for US rice and cattle |
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- | Conversion factors | 36.7 bu/t (wheat, beans), 39.4 bu/t (corn); ¢/bu × 0.367 (or 0.394) = $/t |
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- | Bid / offer | The price a buyer will pay / a seller will accept |
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- | Work an order | Leave an order resting at your price |
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- | Lifted / hit | Your offer was taken / your bid was taken |
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- | Done | The word that seals a trade |
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- | Washed out | Offsetting trades cancel each other; only the difference is settled |
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- | Flat price | The full outright price level |
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- | Differential ("plus 80") | Premium or discount to a named futures month the negotiated part of a physical quote |
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-
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- ## Market pulse (Monday morning, Aug 10 — week of the August WASDE)
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- Wheat starts the week with a bid: KC September HRW closed Friday around **$7.14/bu (+14¢)**, Chicago SRW near **$6.40**, lifted by Black Sea tension. Corn is marking time Sep ~$4.39, Dec ~$4.62 ahead of **Wednesday's August WASDE**, the USDA's monthly supply-and-demand update and the first of the season built on farmer surveys; analysts expect a corn yield near **182 bpa**, which would make the second-largest US corn crop ever. Soybeans drift near **$11.60** with China booking US beans and corn in the daily sales flashes. Softs: arabica ~**$3.15/lb** with certified stocks at 2½-year lows; raw sugar ~**16.5¢/lb**. Russian milling wheat is offered near **$223/t FOB** — an anchor the episode converts against.
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+ | Bushel (bu) | Volume measure (~35 L); legal weight per crop: 60 lb wheat/soybeans, 56 lb corn |
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+ | Cents per bushel | Chicago quoting convention; "465" = $4.65/bu |
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+ | Tick | Smallest price increment: ¼ cent = $12.50 per lot |
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+ | Lot / contract | 5,000 bu on CBOT grains; 50 t on Matif wheat |
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+ | cwt | Hundredweight = 100 lb; used for rice and cotton |
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+ | Short ton | 2,000 lb 907 kg (vs metric tonne = 1,000 kg); soybean meal trades in short tons |
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+ | Differential / basis | Price expressed against a futures month: "plus 85" = 85¢/bu over |
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+ | Prompt vs deferred | Loading now vs loading in a later window |
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+ | Month codes | H Mar, K May, N Jul, U Sep, Z Dec |
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+ | Bid / Offer | Where someone will buy / sell |
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+ | Hit / Lift | Sell into the bid / buy from the offer |
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+ | Done | The trade happened at that level |
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+ | Workable | The price is negotiable |
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+ | Indication | A guide price, not firm |
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+ | Washout | Cancelling a contract by settling the cash difference |
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+ | Laycan | Window in which the vessel may present for loading |
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+ | 5% more or less | Contractual tolerance on cargo size, at seller's option |
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+ ### Market pulse
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+ December corn ~$4.65/bu, November soybeans ~$11.82/bu, September Chicago wheat ~$6.51/bu. Wheat led higher on Black Sea supply disruption; corn and beans stayed heavy as 1–3 inches of rain crossed Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. **Wednesday brings USDA Crop Production and WASDE**: the trade expects corn yield near 182.4 bu/acre (slightly below the current estimate) and soybeans near 52.9.
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  ---
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- ## QUIZ
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+ ## Quiz — Day 1
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- ### Block A Today (Ep 1: units and the language of the desk)
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+ **J-0Episode 1: The units and the language of the desk**
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- **A1 — Translate the order, then size it.** A desk head says: "Buy me forty Dec corn, and work a bid, don't pay the offer." (a) Translate: what exactly is being bought — in lots, bushels and metric tonnes — and what does "work a bid" mean versus paying the offer? (b) Corn then rallies 7¢/bu. What is that worth on the position? (c) The same morning, Russian wheat offers fall $3/t. Which move is bigger in $/t terms — corn's +7¢/bu or Russian wheat's −$3/t?
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+ **Q1.** A trader tells you: *"I'm short thirty December corn and long two Panamaxes of Brazilian beans, sixty thousand tonnes each."* Roughly how many bushels is each side, and why can you not net the two positions against each other?
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- **A2 — One market, two units.** Chicago SRW wheat trades at 655¢/bu; Russian milling wheat is offered at $228/t FOB Novorossiysk. (a) Put the Chicago price in $/t. (b) A colleague concludes: "US wheat is only $12 over Russian we're nearly competitive." Give two reasons (from this episode's own warnings) why that comparison, as stated, is not yet a trade — what has the unit conversion *not* equalized?
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+ **Q2.** You are offered soybean meal at "$318" and told the seller is American. A colleague converts it to €/tonne by dividing by the EUR/USD rate and hands you the number. What has he almost certainly got wrong, and by roughly what percentage?
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- **A3 Decode the squawk.** A broker relays: "For your October boat he offers November plus eighty-five; prompt he'd do plus ninety-four. Your plus eighty bid — you're not getting lifted at that. November's at eleven sixty." (a) In plain numbers: what full price per bushel is the October offer, and the prompt offer? (b) Why is prompt dearer, and what does that premium price? (c) The broker said "you're not getting lifted at that" — is "lifted" used correctly here, strictly speaking? What *should* happen to a bid for it to trade, and why do the verbs matter?
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+ **Q3.** Two quotes for the same origin land on your desk within an hour: *"plus 78, prompt"* and *"plus 85, November"*. A junior concludes the market rallied 7 cents in an hour. Why is that conclusion wrong, and what would actually have to be true for the two numbers to be comparable?
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- *(No J-1 / J-3 blocks: this is Episode 1.)*
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+ *Answer in the conversation to get detailed feedback.*
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  ---
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-  
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-  
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+ <br><br>
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- &nbsp;
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+ ## ▼ SOLUTIONS BELOW — scroll only after answering ▼
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- ## ▼ SOLUTIONS (spoilers) ▼
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+ <br><br>
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- **S-A1.** (a) Forty lots × 5,000 bu = **200,000 bu** of December-delivery corn futures. In tonnes: 200,000 ÷ 39.4 ≈ **5,080 t** (corn is 56 lb/bu — using the wheat factor 36.7 here is the classic day-one error). "Work a bid" = leave a resting buy order at your price and wait to be *hit*, rather than paying the seller's offer immediately you risk missing the market to save the spread. (b) A cent is $50/lot, so × 40 lots = 7 × $2,000 = **+$14,000**. (c) Corn +7¢/bu × 0.394 **+$2.76/t** smaller than wheat's **$3/t** move. Per-tonne is the honest comparison unit; a "big" move in ¢/bu can be the smaller move once converted.
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+ **A1.** Thirty lots of corn = 30 × 5,000 = **150,000 bushels** (~3,810 t at 39.37 bu/t). The beans are 120,000 t ≈ **4.41 million bushels** (120,000 × 36.74). Two reasons they don't net: they are **different commodities** corn and soybeans have their own supply-and-demand and their own futures contractand the sizes are wildly different, roughly 1 to 29 in bushel terms. The trap is treating "bushels" as a common denominator: bushels of corn and bushels of soybeans are not fungible, and even the bushel-to-tonne factor differs between them.
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- **S-A2.** (a) 655¢ × 0.367 **$240/t**. (b) The conversion equalized the *unit*, nothing else. First: **location and freight** — $240 is a Gulf/Chicago-linked price, $228 is FOB Novorossiysk; the two part-cargoes land at an importer's berth with different freight, so the delivered comparison can invert. Second: **the wheats are not the same wheat**different quality/protein and origin; "wheat" is a family of distinct markets (SRW vs 12.5% milling), and a buyer's tender specifies which one it will accept. (Both points get full episodes.) The conversion makes the two screens *comparable*, not *interchangeable*.
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+ **A2.** Chicago soybean meal is quoted in **US dollars per short ton**, not per metric tonne. A short ton is 2,000 lb 907.2 kg, so a metric tonne is about **10.2% more** meal. Converting currency without converting weight understates the €/tonne price by roughly a tenth$318/short ton is about $350.5/metric tonne before any FX. On a 30,000 t cargo, that mistake is close to a million dollars.
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- **S-A3.** (a) October offer: 11.60 + 0.85 = **$12.45/bu**. Prompt: 11.60 + 0.94 = **$12.54/bu**. (Both float with November futures only the plus is firm.) (b) Prompt shipment is dearer by 9¢: the premium prices **urgency** vessels, port slots and sellers able to perform *now* are scarcer than ones performing in October. Urgency lives in the differential, not the flat price. (c) Strictly, no an *offer* is lifted; a *bid* is **hit**. For the plus-80 bid to trade, a seller must come down and hit it. Desks do sometimes say "lifted" loosely, but the strict verbs carry real information: "I was hit" tells the room the aggressor was a seller who initiated tells you which way the market is leaning, which is exactly why the vocabulary exists.
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+ **A3.** Nothing about the flat price is being quoted at all both numbers are **differentials to futures**, and to different things. "Plus 78 prompt" is a cargo loading now; "plus 85 November" is a cargo loading in November, priced against the November board. They are different delivery periods and typically different futures months, so the 7-cent gap measures the market's view on **time and logistics**, not a rally. To compare them you would need the same shipment period and the same futures month and then the difference would tell you something real about how tight prompt supply is versus November. This is the single most common beginner error: reading a differential as if it were a price.
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  ---
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  ## The episode, in writing
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- ### "Fifty lots of Dec corn, at the market"
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+ ### Market pulse
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- On a trading floor, that sentence is a complete instruction. To everyone else it is three riddles: fifty of *what*, which *December*, and the market for what? This opening episode is a phrasebook, not a lecture: the units, the conventions, and the verbs that make a working desk intelligible. By the end, that order reads as a plain sentence — and you'll know what it weighs.
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+ December corn is trading around $4.65/bu, November soybeans near $11.82, September Chicago wheat around $6.51. Wheat is the day's mover, up double digits on Black Sea supply disruption. Corn and beans are heavy: 1–3 inches of rain is falling across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, and August rain makes soybeans.
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- ### The bushel: a basket, standardized
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+ Tomorrow (Wednesday) the USDA publishes Crop Production and WASDE. The trade expects corn yield around **182.4 bu/acre**, slightly below the current estimate, and soybeans near **52.9**. Those two numbers are worth remembering — they will frame the entire week.
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- The bushel is the strangest unit in finance because it is a **volume** — a round basket of about 35 litres — inherited from the English grain trade, where grain was poured and measured long before it was weighed. America kept the word and then nailed it down: for trading purposes, a bushel of soybeans or wheat is defined as **60 pounds**; corn is **56**.
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+ ### The bushel, and why it is strange
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- Same word, different weightsso the tonne conversion differs by crop:
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+ A bushel is not a weight. It is a volume roughly 35 litres, historically a basket. Which creates an obvious problem: a basket of corn and a basket of soybeans do not weigh the same. So the trade fixed the weights by law. A bushel of soybeans or wheat is 60 pounds; a bushel of corn is 56; oats, 32.
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- | Crop | lb/bu | bu per metric tonne |
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- |---|---|---|
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- | Wheat, soybeans | 60 | **36.7** |
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- | Corn | 56 | **39.4** |
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+ That is why the conversion to tonnes differs by crop: one tonne of soybeans is about 36.74 bushels, one tonne of corn about 39.37.
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- ### Lots, ticks, and what a cent is worth
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+ Why does such a unit survive? It comes from the English grain trade, where grain was measured by volume before anyone weighed it, and Chicago inherited the convention in 1848 and never let it go. The rest of the world quotes dollars per tonne — so a grain trader converts between the two all day, in their head.
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- Chicago quotes grain in **cents per bushel** — corn at $4.39 is spoken "four thirty-nine"; the desk never says dollars. Nobody trades one bushel: the contract, the **lot**, is **5,000 bushels** (~136 t of wheat or beans, ~127 t of corn). "Bought fifty" means fifty lots — 250,000 bu, roughly 6,800 t of wheat. A small ocean cargo, transacted in one sentence.
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+ ### How prices are quoted
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- The **tick** — the smallest step a price can move — is ¼¢/bu in Chicago grains, worth **$12.50 per lot**; a full cent is **$50 per lot**. So the fifty-lot order carries $2,500 of P&L per cent of movement. Units are not trivia; they are how you know what you are risking before you open your mouth.
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+ Chicago quotes **cents per bushel**. "Corn is four sixty-five" means 465 cents $4.65 per bushel. The smallest increment is a quarter of a cent: a **tick**.
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- ### Months have letters
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+ One contract, one **lot**, is 5,000 bushels. So a one-cent move is $50 per lot, and a quarter-cent tick is $12.50.
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- Futures trade a commodity *for a named delivery month*: H March, K May, N July, U September, Z December plus F January and X November in the oilseeds. Out loud a desk mostly says "Dec" and "July"; the letters live in tickers and position sheets, but "the Z" means December. The nearby month is the **front**, or **prompt**; everything beyond is **deferred** — and the front and the deferred often tell two different stories about the same crop, which is where this week is heading.
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+ That lets you decode a sentence like *"I'm long fifty December corn"*: 50 contracts, 250,000 bushels, about 6,350 tonnes — and every cent the market moves is $2,500.
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- ### The order, executed
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+ Units are not universal. European wheat on Matif trades in euros per tonne, 50 tonnes to a lot. Cotton and rice quote cents per pound and dollars per hundredweight (cwt = 100 lb). And beware "tons": a metric tonne is 1,000 kg, an American short ton is 2,000 lb ≈ 907 kg. Chicago soybean meal trades in short tons. Confusing the two is a 10% error.
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- > **TRADER:** Where's Dec corn?
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- > **BROKER:** Four thirty-nine and a quarter, at four thirty-nine and a half.
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- > **TRADER:** Buy me fifty at the half.
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- > **BROKER:** Done. You're filled — fifty Dec at four thirty-nine and a half.
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+ ### The part that matters most: nobody says the price
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- The broker quoted two numbers: the **bid** (what buyers will pay) and the **offer** (what sellers want), a quarter cent apart. The trader paid the offer. A quarter-million bushels changed hands, and both sides knew the size of the risk before anyone said yes.
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+ > **BUYER:** November Santos, what have you got?
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+ > **SELLER:** I make you plus eighty-five.
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+ > **BUYER:** That's rich. Last one I saw trade was plus seventy-eight.
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+ > **SELLER:** On prompt, yes. You're asking me for November.
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- The verbs carry as much as the numbers. You **bid** to buy, **offer** to sell, **work** an order by leaving it resting at your price. When a trade prints, the grammar tells you who moved: an offer that gets taken was **lifted**; a bid that gets taken was **hit**; **done** seals either. In a quiet market, "you're lifted" the buyer came to *you*, at *your* price is information, not politeness. One more for the collection: **washed out**, when two offsetting trades cancel and only the difference changes hands. It gets a full episode later in the series.
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+ No dollar figure was spoken. "Plus eighty-five" means 85 cents per bushel **above the November futures contract** in Chicago. That is a differentiala basis. The flat price comes from the screen; the differential is what these two are actually negotiating.
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- ### Leaving Chicago: dollars per tonne
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+ And note the second half: *plus 78* was for prompt shipment, loading now; *plus 85* is for November. Different month, different cargo, different price.
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- Only America talks in bushels. The rest of the world trades grain in **dollars per metric tonne** (2,204.6 lb) — Russian wheat, Ukrainian corn, Brazilian beans, all quoted FOB a named port. Mind the trap inside the word "ton": the American **short ton** is 2,000 lb even, about 10% lighter, and one major contract — soybean meal — actually trades in it. Mixing the two in a freight calculation is a real-money error.
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+ Which is why every quote names a month. Futures months carry letters H March, K May, N July, U September, Z December so a screen shows ZCZ6 for December 2026 corn. Out loud, nobody says that: they say "December corn", or just "the Z".
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- The conversion bridge runs through the bushel weights:
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+ ### The verbs
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- > **$/t ¢/bu × 0.367** (wheat, soybeans) **·** **× 0.394** (corn)
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+ A **bid** is where someone will buy; an **offer** is where they will sell. **Hit** the bid and you sold to them; **lift** the offer and you bought from them. **"Trades at, done"** means it happened at that level. **Workable** means negotiable; **indication** means a guide, not a firm price. A **washout** is two parties who no longer want the cargo settling the cash difference instead of shipping anything.
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- Worked live: Chicago wheat at 640¢ × 0.367 ≈ **$235/t**. Against Russian milling wheat offered near **$223/t FOB** the Black Sea, the American screen and the Russian cash market are suddenly speaking the same language — and you can watch them compete for the same customers. That is what conversions are for: not arithmetic, comparison. One world market, visible in one unit.
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+ > **BROKER:** I've got fifty December offered at four sixty-six and a quarter.
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+ > **TRADER:** I'm bid four sixty-five and a half for fifty.
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+ > **BROKER:** He won't come down. Four sixty-six is workable.
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+ > **TRADER:** Take it. Fifty at four sixty-six.
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- Two oddities to file: US **rice** (and cattle) quote in dollars per **hundredweight** (cwt = 100 lb); and the **softs** coffee, sugar, cotton — quote in cents per pound with moves counted in **points**, each 1/100 of a cent. "Coffee rallied 300 points" is three cents a pound. Sounds enormous; isn't.
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+ Three quarters of a cent apart. On fifty lots, that gap was $1,875small numbers, large multipliers. That is the scale at which a desk argues.
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- ### The grammar of a physical quote
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+ ### How quantity is spoken
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- The most important layer comes last. On the screen, corn has one visible price. Physical traders talk differently:
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+ > **TRADER:** What's the parcel?
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+ > **EXECUTION:** Sixty thousand tonnes, five percent more or less at seller's option.
129
+ > **TRADER:** Laycan?
130
+ > **EXECUTION:** Fifteenth to the twenty-fifth of November.
128
131
 
129
- > **BUYER:** Santos, October shipment. What are beans?
130
- > **SELLER:** I can offer November plus eighty.
131
- > **BUYER:** Plus eighty. And if I need it prompt?
132
- > **SELLER:** Prompt is plus ninety-two. Ships want paying.
132
+ "Five percent more or less" means the cargo may vary by 5% either way — a ship is never loaded to the exact tonne, and the tolerance is contractual. **Laycan** is the window during which the vessel may present for loading; miss it and you are in breach.
133
133
 
134
- Nobody said a price. "**November plus 80**" means 80¢/bu over the November Chicago contract — wherever futures go, the offer floats with them. The negotiated number is only *the plus*: the **differential**.
134
+ ### Takeaway
135
135
 
136
- Why does an entire market talk this way? Because of what each number carries. The futures leg is the *world* price — weather, crop sizes, funds, war — and both sides can hedge it on the screen in one second, so neither needs to argue about it. What no click can hedge is the *local* part: this port, this month, this quality, these ships. That is the part worth negotiating, so it is the only part said out loud. Note what the seller revealed on the way past: prompt costs twelve cents more — **urgency has a price, and it is quoted in the plus**.
136
+ Units first: bushels are volume, weights differ by crop, so tonne conversions differ too. Cents per bushel, 5,000 bushels a lot, quarter-cent ticks.
137
137
 
138
- Read the convention and it tells you where the risk sits: the world price lives on the screen, rented out to anyone; the local price is the physical trader's actual market. What a desk *does* with that split is the next episode's entire subject.
138
+ Quotes second: physical trades as a differential against a named futures month, not as a flat price.
139
139
 
140
- ### Expect a foreign-language week
140
+ And the verbs are exact — bid, offer, hit, lift, done, workable.
141
141
 
142
- If half of these words still feel foreign, that is normal — for about a week. Every term from this episode sits in the glossary below the notes, and the glossary grows with the show. Use it like a phrasebook.
142
+ Some of this will still feel foreign for a week. That is the point: this is the language as it is actually spoken, not a simplified version of it.
143
143
 
144
- *Next Episode 2: Flat price vs basis. The number on the screen is not the price of your cargo, and the gap between the two is where a physical desk actually lives.*
144
+ **Tomorrow:** what a commodity merchant actually does and why, once the flat price is hedged away, that differential is the entire business.
package/ep01.script.txt CHANGED
@@ -1,66 +1,69 @@
1
- Fifty lots of Dec corn, at the market. On a trading floor, that sentence is a complete instruction. ||| 0.5
2
- To everyone else, it is three riddles. Fifty of what? Which December? And the market for what? ||| 0.5
3
- This is Commodity Desk Daily, episode one. Today: the units, and the language of the desk. Not a lecture — a phrasebook. ||| 0.5
4
- By the end, that order will read like a plain sentence. And you will know exactly what it weighs. ||| 0.7
1
+ Welcome to Commodity Desk Daily, episode one. ||| 0.35
2
+ Before we trade anything, we need to speak the language. ||| 0.5
3
+ Today: the units, the way prices are quoted, and the words people actually use on a trading floor. ||| 0.7
5
4
  First, the market pulse. ||| 0.4
6
- Wheat goes into the week with a bid. Kansas City hard red winter closed Friday around seven fourteen a bushel, up fourteen cents on the day, with Chicago soft red near six forty. Black Sea tension did the lifting. ||| 0.5
7
- Note the unit that just went by cents per bushel. Hold that thought. It is today's whole subject. ||| 0.5
8
- Corn is waiting. September sits near four thirty nine, December near four sixty two. The reason for the wait comes Wednesday: the U S D A publishes its August WASDE report, the monthly supply and demand update, and the first of the season built on actual farmer surveys. Analysts expect a corn yield near one eighty two bushels an acre — if that prints, it is the second largest corn crop ever. ||| 0.6
9
- Soybeans drift near eleven sixty. The demand side is doing its part: China has been booking U S beans and corn in the daily sales flashes. ||| 0.5
10
- In the softs, arabica coffee trades around three dollars fifteen a pound, with exchange stocks at two and a half year lows. Raw sugar sits near sixteen and a half cents a pound. ||| 0.5
11
- A bushel. An acre. A pound. If your head is spinning, good. Let's fix that now. ||| 0.8
12
- Start with the strangest one. The bushel. ||| 0.4
13
- A bushel is a volume measure, not a weight. Picture a round basket, about thirty five liters. ||| 0.4
14
- It comes from the English grain trade, where grain was poured and measured before it was weighed. America kept the word, then nailed it down: for trading, a bushel of soybeans or wheat is defined as sixty pounds. Corn, fifty six. ||| 0.5
15
- Same word, different weights. So the conversion to tonnes differs by crop. Remember two numbers: thirty six point seven bushels of wheat or beans make one metric tonne. For corn, thirty nine point four. ||| 0.6
16
- Chicago quotes grain in cents per bushel. Corn at four thirty nine is four dollars and thirty nine cents a bushel — but the desk never says dollars. It says four thirty nine. ||| 0.5
17
- And nobody trades one bushel. The Chicago contract is five thousand bushels. That is the lot. When someone says they bought fifty, they mean fifty lots — two hundred and fifty thousand bushels. Call it sixty eight hundred tonnes of wheat. A small ocean cargo, bought in one sentence. ||| 0.6
18
- Two more words and that sentence is fully armed. The tick is the smallest step a price can move — in Chicago grains, a quarter of a cent per bushel. On one lot of five thousand bushels, that quarter cent is twelve dollars fifty. A full cent is fifty dollars a lot. ||| 0.5
19
- So on fifty lots, every cent of movement is twenty five hundred dollars. Units are not trivia. They are how you know what you are risking before you open your mouth. ||| 0.7
20
- One more piece: the month. Futures do not trade corn. They trade corn for delivery in a named month — and every month has a letter. ||| 0.4
21
- H is March. K is May. N is July. U is September. Z is December. Add F for January and X for November in the oilseeds. ||| 0.5
22
- Out loud, a desk mostly says Dec and July. The letters live in tickers and position sheets. But when someone says the Z, they mean December. ||| 0.5
23
- The nearby month is the front, the prompt. Anything further out is deferred. Sounds like admin it is not. The front and the deferred often tell two different stories about the same crop, and later this week you will see why. ||| 0.7
24
- Put it together, and here is a real order, start to finish. ||| 0.5
25
- TRADER: Where's Dec corn? ||| 0.25
26
- BROKER: Four thirty nine and a quarter, at four thirty nine and a half. ||| 0.25
27
- TRADER: Buy me fifty at the half. ||| 0.25
28
- BROKER: Done. You're filled fifty Dec at four thirty nine and a half. ||| 0.6
29
- Decode it. The broker quoted two numbers: the bid, what buyers will pay, and the offer, what sellers want — a quarter cent apart. The trader paid the offer. Fifty lots, a quarter million bushels of December corn, and both sides knew the size of the risk before anyone said yes. ||| 0.7
30
- The verbs matter as much as the numbers. You bid to buy. You offer to sell. You work an order — leave it resting at your price, and wait. ||| 0.5
31
- And when a trade prints, the language tells you who moved. If your offer gets taken, you were lifted. If your bid gets taken, you were hit. Done seals any of it. ||| 0.5
32
- Listen for the difference. ||| 0.4
33
- TRADER: Offer ten September wheat at six forty. Work it. ||| 0.25
34
- BROKER: Working ten at six forty. ||| 0.5
35
- BROKER: You're lifted on ten. ||| 0.25
36
- TRADER: Done. Anything behind it? ||| 0.25
37
- BROKER: Buyer's still there. He'd pay the same for ten more. ||| 0.6
38
- One word liftedtold the trader the buyer came to him, at his price. In a quiet market, that is information, not grammar. ||| 0.6
39
- One last verb for the collection: washed out. Two offsetting trades cancel each other, and only the price difference changes hands. File it it gets a full episode when we reach contracts. ||| 0.7
40
- Now leave Chicago. Here is the catch: only America talks like this. The rest of the world trades grain in dollars per metric tonne. Russian wheat, Ukrainian corn, Brazilian beans on the cash market — dollars per tonne, F O B a named port. ||| 0.6
41
- And mind the word tonne. A metric tonne is twenty two hundred and four pounds. America also runs a short ton — two thousand pounds even — and one major contract, soybean meal, actually trades in short tons. They sit ten percent apart. Mix them up in a freight calculation and the error is real money. ||| 0.6
42
- So a trader converts all day long, and the bridge is those bushel weights. For wheat and beans, multiply cents per bushel by point three six seven to get dollars per tonne. For corn, point three nine four. ||| 0.5
43
- Try it. Chicago wheat at six forty — six hundred and forty cents — times point three six seven. About two hundred and thirty five dollars a tonne. ||| 0.5
44
- Why bother? Because Russian milling wheat is currently offered near two twenty three a tonne, F O B the Black Sea. Two thirty five against two twenty three. Suddenly the American screen and the Russian cash market are speaking the same language, and you can watch them compete for the same customers. ||| 0.6
45
- That is what conversions are for. Not arithmetic for its own sake comparison. One world market, finally visible in one unit. ||| 0.7
46
- Two oddities to file away. American rice is quoted in dollars per hundredweight spoken C W T one hundred pounds. Cattle too. ||| 0.5
47
- And the softs coffee, sugar, cotton trade in cents per pound, with their small moves counted in points: one point is one hundredth of a cent. When a broker says coffee rallied three hundred points, that is three cents a pound. Sounds enormous. Isn't. ||| 0.7
48
- Now the last layer, and the most important one: the grammar of a physical quote. ||| 0.5
49
- On the screen, corn has one visible price. But listen to two physical traders on a cargo of soybeans out of Santos, Brazil. ||| 0.4
50
- BUYER: Santos, October shipment. What are beans? ||| 0.25
51
- SELLER: I can offer November plus eighty. ||| 0.25
52
- BUYER: Plus eighty. And if I need it prompt? ||| 0.25
53
- SELLER: Prompt is plus ninety two. Ships want paying. ||| 0.6
54
- Nobody said a price. November plus eighty means eighty cents a bushel over the November Chicago contract — wherever November futures go, the offer floats with them. The only number being negotiated is the plus. The differential. ||| 0.6
55
- Why would a market talk this way? Think about what each number carries. The futures leg is the world price weather, crop sizes, funds, war. Both sides can hedge it on the screen in one second, so neither side needs to argue about it. ||| 0.5
56
- What they cannot hedge with a click is the local part. This port, this month, this quality, these ships. That is the part worth negotiating — so that is the only part they say out loud. ||| 0.5
57
- And notice what the seller just told you: prompt costs twelve cents more than October. Urgency has a price, and it is quoted in the plus. ||| 0.5
58
- Read the convention and it tells you where the risk sits. The world price lives on the screen, rented out to anyone who wants it. The local price is the physical trader's actual market. What a desk does with that split — that is the next episode's entire subject. ||| 0.8
59
- What to keep. ||| 0.4
60
- A bushel is volume standardized into weight: sixty pounds for beans and wheat, fifty six for corn — hence thirty six point seven and thirty nine point four bushels to the tonne. ||| 0.5
61
- A Chicago lot is five thousand bushels, and a cent is fifty dollars a lot. Know your size before you know your opinion. ||| 0.5
62
- America quotes cents per bushel. The world quotes dollars per tonne. The desk lives in the conversion. ||| 0.5
63
- And a physical quote is a differential against a named month. The plus is the market. ||| 0.6
64
- If half of these words still feel foreign, that is normal for about a week. Every term from today sits in the written notes, in a glossary that grows with the show. Use it like a phrasebook. ||| 0.6
65
- Next time: flat price versus basis. The number on the screen is not the price of your cargo — and the gap between the two is where a physical desk actually lives. ||| 0.5
66
- There is a quiz in the show notes three questions, with worked solutions. Try them before you peek. See you on the desk. ||| 0.8
5
+ Chicago corn for December sits around four dollars sixty-five a bushel. November soybeans near eleven eighty-two. September Chicago wheat around six fifty-one. ||| 0.45
6
+ Wheat is the mover, up double digits, on Black Sea supply disruption. Corn and beans are heavy, because one to three inches of rain is falling across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, and rain in August makes soybeans. ||| 0.5
7
+ And tomorrow, Wednesday, the U S D A publishes its Crop Production and supply and demand reports. ||| 0.35
8
+ The trade is looking for corn yield around one hundred eighty-two point four bushels an acre, slightly below the current estimate, and soybeans near fifty-two point nine. ||| 0.4
9
+ Keep those two numbers in your head. We will come back to them all week. ||| 0.7
10
+ Now. If you have been listening to that pulse thinking, a bushel of what, exactly — this episode is for you. ||| 0.5
11
+ Let's start with the bushel, because it is the strangest unit you will meet. ||| 0.45
12
+ A bushel is not a weight. It is a volume. About thirty-five litres, historically a basket. ||| 0.4
13
+ Which creates an obvious problem. A basket of corn and a basket of soybeans do not weigh the same. ||| 0.5
14
+ So the trade fixed the weights by law. A bushel of soybeans or wheat is sixty pounds. A bushel of corn is fifty-six pounds. Oats, thirty-two. ||| 0.45
15
+ That is why the conversion to tonnes is different for every crop. ||| 0.35
16
+ One tonne of soybeans is about thirty-six point seven bushels. One tonne of corn, about thirty-nine point four. ||| 0.5
17
+ Why does it survive? Because it comes from the English grain trade, where grain was measured by volume before anyone weighed it, and Chicago inherited the convention in eighteen forty-eight and never let go. ||| 0.4
18
+ The rest of the world quotes dollars per tonne. So a grain trader converts between the two all day long, in their head. ||| 0.7
19
+ Prices, then. Chicago quotes cents per bushel. ||| 0.35
20
+ When someone says corn is four sixty-five, they mean four hundred sixty-five cents, four dollars sixty-five, per bushel. ||| 0.4
21
+ The smallest move is a quarter of a cent. That is a tick. ||| 0.35
22
+ One contract, one lot, is five thousand bushels. So a one cent move is fifty dollars a lot. A quarter-cent tick is twelve dollars fifty. ||| 0.5
23
+ Now you can decode a sentence like: I am long fifty December corn. ||| 0.4
24
+ That is fifty contracts. Two hundred fifty thousand bushels. About six thousand three hundred tonnes. And every cent the market moves is two and a half thousand dollars. ||| 0.6
25
+ Elsewhere the units change. European wheat on Matif trades in euros per tonne, fifty tonnes a lot. ||| 0.35
26
+ Cotton and rice quote cents per pound and dollars per hundredweight — a hundredweight being a hundred pounds, written c w t. ||| 0.4
27
+ And be careful with tons. A metric tonne is a thousand kilos. An American short ton is two thousand pounds, about nine hundred seven kilos. Soybean meal in Chicago trades in short tons. Confusing the two is a ten percent error. ||| 0.7
28
+ Here is the part that matters most. ||| 0.4
29
+ On a physical desk, people very rarely say the price. ||| 0.5
30
+ Listen to this. ||| 0.35
31
+ BUYER: November Santos, what have you got? ||| 0.25
32
+ SELLER: I make you plus eighty-five. ||| 0.25
33
+ BUYER: That's rich. Last one I saw trade was plus seventy-eight. ||| 0.25
34
+ SELLER: On prompt, yes. You're asking me for November. ||| 0.6
35
+ Nobody said a number of dollars. ||| 0.35
36
+ Plus eighty-five means eighty-five cents per bushel above the November futures contract in Chicago. ||| 0.4
37
+ That is a differentiala basis. The flat price comes from the screen. The differential is what the two of them are actually negotiating. ||| 0.5
38
+ And notice the second half of that exchange. Plus seventy-eight was for prompt shipment, loading now. Plus eighty-five is for November. Different month, different cargo, different price. ||| 0.5
39
+ Which is why every quote names a month. ||| 0.35
40
+ Futures months have letters H is March, K is May, N is July, U is September, Z is December. You will see ZCZ6 on a screen and it means corn, December, twenty twenty-six. ||| 0.45
41
+ Out loud, nobody says that. They say December corn, or just the Z. ||| 0.7
42
+ Then there are the verbs, and they are precise. ||| 0.4
43
+ A bid is where someone will buy. An offer is where they will sell. ||| 0.35
44
+ If you hit the bid, you sold to them. If you lift the offer, you bought from them. ||| 0.4
45
+ Trades at, donethe trade happened at that level. ||| 0.35
46
+ Workable means the price is negotiable. Indication means it is not a firm price, only a guide. ||| 0.4
47
+ And a washout is when two parties who no longer want the cargo settle the difference in cash instead of shipping anything. ||| 0.6
48
+ One more exchange, so you hear a broker at work. ||| 0.35
49
+ BROKER: I've got fifty December offered at four sixty-six and a quarter. ||| 0.25
50
+ TRADER: I'm bid four sixty-five and a half for fifty. ||| 0.25
51
+ BROKER: He won't come down. Four sixty-six is workable. ||| 0.25
52
+ TRADER: Take it. Fifty at four sixty-six. ||| 0.55
53
+ Three quarters of a cent apart. On fifty lots, that gap was one thousand eight hundred seventy-five dollars. ||| 0.4
54
+ That is the scale a desk argues at small numbers, large multipliers. ||| 0.7
55
+ Last one. Notice how quantity is spoken. ||| 0.35
56
+ TRADER: What's the parcel? ||| 0.25
57
+ EXECUTION: Sixty thousand tonnes, five percent more or less at seller's option. ||| 0.25
58
+ TRADER: Laycan? ||| 0.25
59
+ EXECUTION: Fifteenth to the twenty-fifth of November. ||| 0.55
60
+ Five percent more or less means the cargo can vary by five percent either way — a ship is never loaded to the exact tonne. ||| 0.4
61
+ And laycan is the window during which the vessel may present for loading. Miss it and you are in breach. ||| 0.6
62
+ So, the takeaway. ||| 0.4
63
+ Units first: bushels are volume, weights differ by crop, so tonne conversions differ too. Cents per bushel, five thousand bushels a lot, quarter-cent ticks. ||| 0.4
64
+ Quotes second: physical trades as a differential against a named futures month, not as a flat price. ||| 0.4
65
+ And the verbs are exact. Bid, offer, hit, lift, done, workable. ||| 0.5
66
+ Some of this will still feel foreign for a week. That is normal, and it is the point — this is the language as it is actually spoken, not a simplified version of it. ||| 0.4
67
+ Everything introduced today is written out in the glossary in your notes. ||| 0.6
68
+ Tomorrow: what a commodity merchant actually does — and why, once the flat price is hedged away, the differential you just heard being argued over is the entire business. ||| 0.4
69
+ The quiz is in your notes. See you then. ||| 0.3
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- <itunes:duration>658</itunes:duration>
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+ <description>Bushels, lots, ticks and hundredweights the units a trading floor actually uses, and why they are what they are. Then the grammar of a quote: why physical cargoes trade as a differential to a futures month, and what bid, offer, hit, lift, done and workable really mean.</description>
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29
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  <item>
30
30
  <title>Ep 2 — Flat Price vs Basis</title>
package/glossary.md CHANGED
@@ -2,24 +2,40 @@
2
2
 
3
3
  Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them.
4
4
 
5
+ - **at** — the small word that introduces the offer side (462 bid, at 462 and a half) _(ep 1)_
6
+ - **bag (coffee)** — 60 kg, how the coffee trade counts volume _(ep 1)_
5
7
  - **bid** — the price a buyer will pay _(ep 1)_
6
8
  - **bushel** — volume measure standardized into weight, 60 lb for soybeans and wheat, 56 lb for corn _(ep 1)_
9
+ - **bushels per tonne** — about 36.7 for soybeans and wheat, 39.4 for corn _(ep 1)_
7
10
  - **cents per bushel** — Chicago grain quoting unit, 4.39 dollars per bushel is spoken four thirty-nine _(ep 1)_
8
11
  - **conversion factors** — 36.7 bushels per tonne for wheat and beans and 39.4 for corn, so cents per bushel times 0.367 or 0.394 gives dollars per tonne _(ep 1)_
9
12
  - **cwt** — hundredweight, 100 lb, the quoting unit for US rice and cattle _(ep 1)_
13
+ - **cwt (hundredweight)** — 100 lb, the quoting unit for US rice _(ep 1)_
10
14
  - **deferred** — months or shipment windows further out _(ep 1)_
11
15
  - **differential** — the premium or discount to a named futures month, as in November plus 80, the negotiated part of a physical quote _(ep 1)_
16
+ - **differential (basis)** — the premium or discount to a named futures month, quoted as plus 80 or minus 20 _(ep 1)_
12
17
  - **done** — the word that seals a trade _(ep 1)_
18
+ - **firm** — a tradable quote that binds if accepted, often with a time limit _(ep 1)_
19
+ - **five percent more or less** — the contractual tolerance on cargo size, exercised at the seller's option _(ep 1)_
13
20
  - **flat price** — the full outright price level _(ep 1)_
14
21
  - **hit** — your bid was taken by a seller _(ep 1)_
22
+ - **hit the bid** — to sell into someone else's bid _(ep 1)_
23
+ - **indication** — a guide price that is not firm _(ep 1)_
24
+ - **laycan** — the window during which a vessel may present for loading _(ep 1)_
25
+ - **lift the offer** — to buy from someone else's offer _(ep 1)_
15
26
  - **lifted** — your offer was taken by a buyer _(ep 1)_
16
27
  - **lot** — one futures contract, 5,000 bushels for Chicago grains, the unit desks count positions in _(ep 1)_
17
28
  - **metric tonne** — 2,204.6 lb, the grain trading weight unit outside the US _(ep 1)_
18
29
  - **month codes** — F G H J K M N Q U V X Z for January through December, the Z is December _(ep 1)_
19
30
  - **offer** — the price a seller will accept _(ep 1)_
31
+ - **point** — one hundredth of a cent per pound, how softs desks count moves _(ep 1)_
20
32
  - **point (softs)** — one hundredth of a cent per pound, so up 300 points means up 3 cents _(ep 1)_
21
33
  - **prompt** — the nearby month or shipment window, ready to move now _(ep 1)_
22
34
  - **short ton** — 2,000 lb, used by US soybean meal, about 10 percent lighter than a metric tonne _(ep 1)_
23
35
  - **tick** — smallest price increment, a quarter cent per bushel in Chicago grains, worth 12.50 dollars per lot _(ep 1)_
36
+ - **WASDE** — the USDA monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report _(ep 1)_
24
37
  - **washed out** — offsetting trades cancel each other and only the price difference is settled _(ep 1)_
38
+ - **washout** — cancelling two offsetting physical contracts by settling the price difference instead of shipping _(ep 1)_
39
+ - **work** — leave an order resting with a broker _(ep 1)_
25
40
  - **work an order** — leave an order resting at your price and wait _(ep 1)_
41
+ - **workable** — the quoted price is negotiable _(ep 1)_
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