@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.63 → 1.0.64
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/covered.md +1 -0
- package/ep20.md +270 -0
- package/ep20.script.txt +92 -0
- package/feed.xml +12 -0
- package/glossary.md +11 -0
- package/package.json +2 -2
- package/ep10.html +0 -798
- package/ep10.md +0 -312
- package/ep10_chart1.png +0 -0
- package/ep10_chart2.png +0 -0
- package/ep10_chart3.png +0 -0
- package/ep16.html +0 -773
- package/ep16.md +0 -256
- package/ep16.script.txt +0 -111
- package/ep16_chart1.png +0 -0
- package/ep16_chart2.png +0 -0
- package/ep16_chart3.png +0 -0
- package/ep19.html +0 -801
- package/ep19.md +0 -283
- package/ep19.script.txt +0 -96
- package/ep19_chart1.png +0 -0
- package/ep19_chart2.png +0 -0
- package/ep19_chart3.png +0 -0
- package/release.json +0 -70
package/ep10.html
DELETED
|
@@ -1,798 +0,0 @@
|
|
|
1
|
-
<!DOCTYPE html>
|
|
2
|
-
<html lang="en" data-theme="light">
|
|
3
|
-
<head>
|
|
4
|
-
<meta charset="utf-8">
|
|
5
|
-
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
|
|
6
|
-
<title>Ep 10 — Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering · Soft Commodity Trading</title>
|
|
7
|
-
<meta name="description" content="Why the smaller ship can be the expensive one, and why freight is the one leg of a hedged trade that stays open.">
|
|
8
|
-
<meta name="author" content="Sébastien Delsad">
|
|
9
|
-
<link rel="canonical" href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10.html">
|
|
10
|
-
<meta property="og:type" content="article">
|
|
11
|
-
<meta property="og:site_name" content="Soft Commodity Trading">
|
|
12
|
-
<meta property="og:title" content="Ep 10 — Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering">
|
|
13
|
-
<meta property="og:description" content="Why the smaller ship can be the expensive one, and why freight is the one leg of a hedged trade that stays open.">
|
|
14
|
-
<meta property="og:url" content="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10.html">
|
|
15
|
-
<meta property="og:image" content="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily@1.0.15/cover.jpg">
|
|
16
|
-
<meta property="og:image:alt" content="Soft Commodity Trading cover art">
|
|
17
|
-
<meta property="og:audio" content="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10.mp3">
|
|
18
|
-
<meta property="og:audio:type" content="audio/mpeg">
|
|
19
|
-
<meta property="article:published_time" content="2026-08-21">
|
|
20
|
-
<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
|
|
21
|
-
<meta name="twitter:title" content="Ep 10 — Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering">
|
|
22
|
-
<meta name="twitter:description" content="Why the smaller ship can be the expensive one, and why freight is the one leg of a hedged trade that stays open.">
|
|
23
|
-
<meta name="twitter:image" content="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily@1.0.15/cover.jpg">
|
|
24
|
-
<meta name="theme-color" content="#faf7f1" media="(prefers-color-scheme: light)">
|
|
25
|
-
<meta name="theme-color" content="#14110e" media="(prefers-color-scheme: dark)">
|
|
26
|
-
<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Soft Commodity Trading" href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/feed.xml">
|
|
27
|
-
<link rel="icon" href="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' viewBox='0 0 64 64'%3E%3Crect width='64' height='64' rx='12' fill='%231d4032'/%3E%3Ctext x='32' y='44' font-family='Georgia,serif' font-size='34' fill='%23c9a45c' text-anchor='middle'%3ES%3C/text%3E%3C/svg%3E">
|
|
28
|
-
<script type="application/ld+json">
|
|
29
|
-
{
|
|
30
|
-
"@context": "https://schema.org",
|
|
31
|
-
"@type": "PodcastEpisode",
|
|
32
|
-
"url": "https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10.html",
|
|
33
|
-
"name": "Ep 10 — Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering",
|
|
34
|
-
"episodeNumber": 10,
|
|
35
|
-
"duration": "PT15M16S",
|
|
36
|
-
"description": "Why the smaller ship can be the expensive one, and why freight is the one leg of a hedged trade that stays open.",
|
|
37
|
-
"image": "https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily@1.0.15/cover.jpg",
|
|
38
|
-
"inLanguage": "en",
|
|
39
|
-
"author": {
|
|
40
|
-
"@type": "Person",
|
|
41
|
-
"name": "Sébastien Delsad"
|
|
42
|
-
},
|
|
43
|
-
"associatedMedia": {
|
|
44
|
-
"@type": "MediaObject",
|
|
45
|
-
"contentUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10.mp3",
|
|
46
|
-
"encodingFormat": "audio/mpeg"
|
|
47
|
-
},
|
|
48
|
-
"partOfSeries": {
|
|
49
|
-
"@type": "PodcastSeries",
|
|
50
|
-
"name": "Soft Commodity Trading",
|
|
51
|
-
"url": "https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/index.html",
|
|
52
|
-
"image": "https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily@1.0.15/cover.jpg",
|
|
53
|
-
"webFeed": "https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/feed.xml"
|
|
54
|
-
},
|
|
55
|
-
"datePublished": "2026-08-21"
|
|
56
|
-
}
|
|
57
|
-
</script>
|
|
58
|
-
<style>
|
|
59
|
-
:root{
|
|
60
|
-
--ink:#16110c; --ink-soft:#4a4238; --line:#e3ddd2; --paper:#faf7f1;
|
|
61
|
-
--accent:#1d4032; --gold:#a8813c; --spoiler:#8a2f2f;
|
|
62
|
-
--tint:rgba(128,110,70,.07); --tint-2:rgba(128,110,70,.045);
|
|
63
|
-
--up:#215c44; --down:#8a2f2f; --shadow:rgba(22,17,12,.14);
|
|
64
|
-
--sans:ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,"Segoe UI",Roboto,sans-serif;
|
|
65
|
-
--serif:Georgia,"Iowan Old Style","Times New Roman",serif;
|
|
66
|
-
--col:680px;
|
|
67
|
-
}
|
|
68
|
-
html[data-theme="dark"]{
|
|
69
|
-
--ink:#ece6dc; --ink-soft:#a49c90; --line:#2f2a24; --paper:#14110e;
|
|
70
|
-
--accent:#7fae95; --gold:#c9a45c; --spoiler:#d98a8a;
|
|
71
|
-
--tint:rgba(200,180,130,.06); --tint-2:rgba(200,180,130,.035);
|
|
72
|
-
--up:#7fae95; --down:#d98a8a; --shadow:rgba(0,0,0,.55);
|
|
73
|
-
color-scheme:dark;
|
|
74
|
-
}
|
|
75
|
-
*{box-sizing:border-box}
|
|
76
|
-
html{scroll-behavior:smooth;scroll-padding-top:64px}
|
|
77
|
-
html,body{transition:background-color .25s ease,color .25s ease}
|
|
78
|
-
body{margin:0;background:var(--paper);color:var(--ink);
|
|
79
|
-
font:18px/1.72 var(--serif);-webkit-font-smoothing:antialiased;
|
|
80
|
-
text-rendering:optimizeLegibility}
|
|
81
|
-
.wrap{max-width:var(--col);margin:0 auto;padding:0 24px 40px}
|
|
82
|
-
.vh{position:absolute;width:1px;height:1px;overflow:hidden;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);
|
|
83
|
-
white-space:nowrap}
|
|
84
|
-
|
|
85
|
-
/* ---------- reading progress ---------- */
|
|
86
|
-
#bar{position:fixed;top:0;left:0;height:2px;width:0;z-index:30;
|
|
87
|
-
background:var(--gold);transition:width .12s linear}
|
|
88
|
-
|
|
89
|
-
/* ---------- masthead ---------- */
|
|
90
|
-
header{padding:52px 0 30px}
|
|
91
|
-
.masthead{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:baseline;gap:16px;
|
|
92
|
-
padding-bottom:12px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--ink);
|
|
93
|
-
font:600 13px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.13em;text-transform:uppercase}
|
|
94
|
-
.masthead a{color:inherit;text-decoration:none}
|
|
95
|
-
.masthead .epno{color:var(--gold);letter-spacing:.1em}
|
|
96
|
-
h1{font-size:clamp(31px,5.6vw,44px);line-height:1.12;margin:26px 0 0;
|
|
97
|
-
letter-spacing:-.017em;font-weight:400;text-wrap:balance}
|
|
98
|
-
.dek{color:var(--ink-soft);font-size:20px;line-height:1.5;margin:16px 0 0;
|
|
99
|
-
max-width:34em;text-wrap:pretty}
|
|
100
|
-
.meta{margin-top:22px;font:12.5px/1.6 var(--sans);color:var(--ink-soft);
|
|
101
|
-
letter-spacing:.05em;text-transform:uppercase}
|
|
102
|
-
.meta b{font-weight:600;color:var(--ink)}
|
|
103
|
-
|
|
104
|
-
/* ---------- listen ---------- */
|
|
105
|
-
.listen{margin-top:26px;border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:12px;
|
|
106
|
-
background:var(--tint-2);padding:16px 18px 14px}
|
|
107
|
-
audio{width:100%;height:38px;display:block}
|
|
108
|
-
.listenrow{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:8px 16px;align-items:center;
|
|
109
|
-
margin-top:12px;font:12.5px/1 var(--sans);color:var(--ink-soft)}
|
|
110
|
-
.listenrow a{color:var(--ink-soft);text-decoration:none;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line)}
|
|
111
|
-
.listenrow a:hover{color:var(--accent);border-color:var(--accent)}
|
|
112
|
-
.rates{display:flex;gap:6px;margin-right:auto}
|
|
113
|
-
.rate{background:none;border:1px solid var(--line);color:var(--ink-soft);
|
|
114
|
-
border-radius:99px;padding:4px 10px;cursor:pointer;
|
|
115
|
-
font:600 11.5px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.04em;transition:all .2s}
|
|
116
|
-
.rate:hover{border-color:var(--gold);color:var(--ink)}
|
|
117
|
-
.rate[aria-pressed="true"]{background:var(--ink);color:var(--paper);border-color:var(--ink)}
|
|
118
|
-
.offline{background:none;border:1px solid var(--accent);color:var(--accent);
|
|
119
|
-
border-radius:99px;padding:5px 12px;cursor:pointer;
|
|
120
|
-
font:600 11.5px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.04em;transition:all .2s}
|
|
121
|
-
.offline:hover{background:var(--accent);color:var(--paper)}
|
|
122
|
-
.offline[disabled]{opacity:.7;cursor:progress}
|
|
123
|
-
.offline.saved{background:var(--accent);color:var(--paper)}
|
|
124
|
-
.offnote{margin:10px 0 0;font:12.5px/1.45 var(--sans);color:var(--ink-soft)}
|
|
125
|
-
|
|
126
|
-
/* ---------- contents ---------- */
|
|
127
|
-
.toc{margin:34px 0 6px;padding:16px 0 4px;border-top:1px solid var(--line);
|
|
128
|
-
border-bottom:1px solid var(--line)}
|
|
129
|
-
.tochead{font:600 11px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.18em;text-transform:uppercase;
|
|
130
|
-
color:var(--gold);margin:0 0 12px}
|
|
131
|
-
.toc ol{list-style:none;margin:0 0 12px;padding:0;
|
|
132
|
-
font:14.5px/1.5 var(--sans);columns:2;column-gap:26px}
|
|
133
|
-
.toc li{margin:0 0 7px;break-inside:avoid}
|
|
134
|
-
.toc li.t3{padding-left:12px;font-size:13.5px}
|
|
135
|
-
.toc a{color:var(--ink-soft);text-decoration:none;border-bottom:1px solid transparent}
|
|
136
|
-
.toc a:hover{color:var(--ink);border-color:var(--gold)}
|
|
137
|
-
.toc li.on>a{color:var(--ink);font-weight:600}
|
|
138
|
-
|
|
139
|
-
/* ---------- body ---------- */
|
|
140
|
-
main{padding-top:8px}
|
|
141
|
-
h2{font:400 27px/1.25 var(--serif);color:var(--gold);margin:56px 0 18px;
|
|
142
|
-
font-variant-caps:all-small-caps;letter-spacing:.045em;
|
|
143
|
-
padding-bottom:9px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line)}
|
|
144
|
-
h3{font-size:23px;line-height:1.3;margin:38px 0 10px;letter-spacing:-.012em;
|
|
145
|
-
font-weight:400}
|
|
146
|
-
h4{font:600 17px/1.4 var(--sans);margin:26px 0 6px;letter-spacing:-.005em}
|
|
147
|
-
p{margin:0 0 18px}
|
|
148
|
-
h2+p,h3+p,h4+p{margin-top:0}
|
|
149
|
-
ul,ol{margin:0 0 18px;padding-left:24px}
|
|
150
|
-
li{margin:0 0 9px}
|
|
151
|
-
li::marker{color:var(--gold)}
|
|
152
|
-
strong{font-weight:700}
|
|
153
|
-
a{color:var(--accent);text-underline-offset:2px;text-decoration-thickness:1px}
|
|
154
|
-
.anchor{float:right;margin-left:12px;color:var(--line);text-decoration:none;
|
|
155
|
-
font:400 16px/1 var(--sans);opacity:0;transition:opacity .2s}
|
|
156
|
-
h2:hover .anchor,h3:hover .anchor,.anchor:focus{opacity:1;color:var(--gold)}
|
|
157
|
-
.secnote{font:14.5px/1.6 var(--sans);color:var(--ink-soft);margin:-4px 0 18px}
|
|
158
|
-
code{background:var(--tint);padding:1px 5px;border-radius:3px;
|
|
159
|
-
font:15px/1 ui-monospace,Menlo,Consolas,monospace}
|
|
160
|
-
blockquote{border-left:2px solid var(--gold);margin:26px 0;padding:6px 0 6px 20px;
|
|
161
|
-
font-style:italic;color:var(--ink-soft);font-size:17.5px}
|
|
162
|
-
blockquote strong{font-style:normal;color:var(--ink);font-weight:600}
|
|
163
|
-
hr{border:none;border-top:1px solid var(--line);margin:40px 0}
|
|
164
|
-
.charterr{color:var(--spoiler);font:14px/1.5 var(--sans)}
|
|
165
|
-
|
|
166
|
-
/* ---------- tables ---------- */
|
|
167
|
-
.tablewrap{margin:26px 0;overflow-x:auto;overscroll-behavior-x:contain;
|
|
168
|
-
background:
|
|
169
|
-
linear-gradient(to right,var(--paper) 34%,rgba(255,255,255,0)) left center,
|
|
170
|
-
linear-gradient(to left,var(--paper) 34%,rgba(255,255,255,0)) right center,
|
|
171
|
-
radial-gradient(farthest-side at 0 50%,var(--shadow),rgba(255,255,255,0)) left center,
|
|
172
|
-
radial-gradient(farthest-side at 100% 50%,var(--shadow),rgba(255,255,255,0)) right center;
|
|
173
|
-
background-repeat:no-repeat;
|
|
174
|
-
background-size:44px 100%,44px 100%,13px 100%,13px 100%;
|
|
175
|
-
background-attachment:local,local,scroll,scroll}
|
|
176
|
-
.tablewrap:focus-visible{outline:2px solid var(--gold);outline-offset:3px}
|
|
177
|
-
table{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;font:15.5px/1.5 var(--sans);
|
|
178
|
-
font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums lining-nums}
|
|
179
|
-
th{text-align:left;font-size:11.5px;letter-spacing:.1em;text-transform:uppercase;
|
|
180
|
-
color:var(--ink-soft);border-bottom:1px solid var(--ink);padding:0 14px 9px 0;
|
|
181
|
-
font-weight:600;white-space:nowrap}
|
|
182
|
-
td{padding:10px 14px 10px 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line);vertical-align:top}
|
|
183
|
-
th:last-child,td:last-child{padding-right:0}
|
|
184
|
-
th.num,td.num{text-align:right;white-space:nowrap}
|
|
185
|
-
tbody tr:last-child td{border-bottom:none}
|
|
186
|
-
tr td:first-child{font-weight:600;padding-right:20px;min-width:9em}
|
|
187
|
-
.mv{font-weight:600;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
|
|
188
|
-
.mv.up{color:var(--up)} .mv.down{color:var(--down)} .mv.flat{color:var(--ink-soft)}
|
|
189
|
-
|
|
190
|
-
/* ---------- quiz and solutions ---------- */
|
|
191
|
-
.qq{scroll-margin-top:70px}
|
|
192
|
-
.solnbar{display:flex;gap:8px;margin:0 0 16px}
|
|
193
|
-
.ghost{background:none;border:1px solid var(--line);color:var(--ink-soft);
|
|
194
|
-
border-radius:99px;padding:6px 14px;cursor:pointer;
|
|
195
|
-
font:600 11.5px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase;
|
|
196
|
-
transition:all .2s}
|
|
197
|
-
.ghost:hover{border-color:var(--gold);color:var(--ink)}
|
|
198
|
-
details.soln{margin:0 0 10px;scroll-margin-top:70px}
|
|
199
|
-
details.soln>summary{cursor:pointer;list-style:none;display:flex;align-items:center;
|
|
200
|
-
gap:12px;border:1px solid var(--line);border-left:3px solid var(--spoiler);
|
|
201
|
-
border-radius:7px;padding:11px 16px;transition:all .2s;background:var(--tint-2)}
|
|
202
|
-
summary::-webkit-details-marker{display:none}
|
|
203
|
-
details.soln>summary:hover{border-color:var(--spoiler);background:var(--tint)}
|
|
204
|
-
.qn{font:700 13px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.08em;color:var(--spoiler);
|
|
205
|
-
text-transform:uppercase}
|
|
206
|
-
.sl{font:500 12.5px/1 var(--sans);color:var(--ink-soft);letter-spacing:.05em}
|
|
207
|
-
details[open]>summary .sl{opacity:.6}
|
|
208
|
-
.solnbody{border-left:2px solid var(--accent);margin:14px 0 22px 3px;
|
|
209
|
-
padding:2px 0 2px 20px;font-size:17.5px}
|
|
210
|
-
.backq{font:12.5px/1 var(--sans);margin:0}
|
|
211
|
-
.backq a{color:var(--ink-soft);text-decoration:none}
|
|
212
|
-
.backq a:hover{color:var(--accent)}
|
|
213
|
-
|
|
214
|
-
/* ---------- glossary ---------- */
|
|
215
|
-
details.gloss>summary,details.archive>summary{cursor:pointer;list-style:none;
|
|
216
|
-
display:flex;align-items:baseline;justify-content:space-between;gap:14px;
|
|
217
|
-
border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:8px;padding:13px 18px;
|
|
218
|
-
font:600 14px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.03em;transition:all .2s;
|
|
219
|
-
background:var(--tint-2)}
|
|
220
|
-
details.gloss>summary:hover,details.archive>summary:hover{border-color:var(--gold)}
|
|
221
|
-
.glossbody{padding:22px 2px 6px}
|
|
222
|
-
.gsearch input{width:100%;padding:11px 14px;border:1px solid var(--line);
|
|
223
|
-
border-radius:8px;background:var(--paper);color:var(--ink);
|
|
224
|
-
font:15px/1 var(--sans)}
|
|
225
|
-
.gsearch input:focus{outline:none;border-color:var(--gold)}
|
|
226
|
-
.gchips{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:7px;margin:14px 0 0}
|
|
227
|
-
.gchip{background:none;border:1px solid var(--line);color:var(--ink-soft);
|
|
228
|
-
border-radius:99px;padding:6px 12px;cursor:pointer;display:flex;align-items:center;
|
|
229
|
-
gap:6px;font:600 12px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.04em;transition:all .2s}
|
|
230
|
-
.gchip:hover{border-color:var(--gold);color:var(--ink)}
|
|
231
|
-
.gchip.on{background:var(--ink);color:var(--paper);border-color:var(--ink)}
|
|
232
|
-
.gn{font-weight:400;opacity:.65;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
|
|
233
|
-
dl{margin:20px 0 0}
|
|
234
|
-
.gterm{padding:11px 0;border-top:1px solid var(--line)}
|
|
235
|
-
.gterm dt{font:600 15.5px/1.4 var(--sans)}
|
|
236
|
-
.gterm dd{margin:3px 0 0;font-size:16.5px;color:var(--ink-soft)}
|
|
237
|
-
.gep{font:600 10.5px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;
|
|
238
|
-
color:var(--ink-soft);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:99px;
|
|
239
|
-
padding:3px 7px;white-space:nowrap;margin-left:4px}
|
|
240
|
-
.gep.now{color:var(--gold);border-color:var(--gold)}
|
|
241
|
-
.gnone{font:15px/1.5 var(--sans);color:var(--ink-soft);padding:16px 0}
|
|
242
|
-
|
|
243
|
-
/* ---------- episode navigation ---------- */
|
|
244
|
-
.epnav{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:14px;margin:56px 0 20px;
|
|
245
|
-
padding-top:26px;border-top:1px solid var(--ink)}
|
|
246
|
-
.epnav a{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:5px;text-decoration:none;
|
|
247
|
-
border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:10px;padding:16px 18px;
|
|
248
|
-
color:var(--ink);transition:all .25s}
|
|
249
|
-
.epnav a:hover{border-color:var(--gold);background:var(--tint-2)}
|
|
250
|
-
.epnav .epnext{text-align:right}
|
|
251
|
-
.epnav .dir{font:600 11px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.14em;text-transform:uppercase;
|
|
252
|
-
color:var(--gold)}
|
|
253
|
-
.epnav .ept{font:19px/1.3 var(--serif)}
|
|
254
|
-
.epnav .epn{font:12px/1 var(--sans);color:var(--ink-soft);letter-spacing:.05em}
|
|
255
|
-
.epnav a:only-child{grid-column:1/-1;max-width:60%}
|
|
256
|
-
.epnav .epnext:only-child{margin-left:auto}
|
|
257
|
-
details.archive{margin:0 0 12px}
|
|
258
|
-
.arclist{list-style:none;margin:18px 0 6px;padding:0;font:15px/1.5 var(--sans)}
|
|
259
|
-
.arclist li{margin:0;border-top:1px solid var(--line)}
|
|
260
|
-
.arclist a{display:flex;gap:14px;padding:11px 4px;text-decoration:none;
|
|
261
|
-
color:var(--ink);transition:background .2s}
|
|
262
|
-
.arclist a:hover{background:var(--tint-2)}
|
|
263
|
-
.arclist b{color:var(--gold);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;font-weight:600}
|
|
264
|
-
.arclist li.here a{color:var(--ink-soft)}
|
|
265
|
-
.arclist li.here b:after{content:" · you are here";font-weight:400;
|
|
266
|
-
font-size:11px;letter-spacing:.1em;text-transform:uppercase}
|
|
267
|
-
|
|
268
|
-
/* ---------- theme button + footer ---------- */
|
|
269
|
-
.themebtn{position:fixed;top:14px;right:14px;z-index:20;background:var(--paper);
|
|
270
|
-
color:var(--ink-soft);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:99px;
|
|
271
|
-
padding:8px 14px;cursor:pointer;font:500 12px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.06em;
|
|
272
|
-
display:flex;align-items:center;gap:7px;box-shadow:0 1px 4px var(--shadow);
|
|
273
|
-
transition:all .2s}
|
|
274
|
-
.themebtn:hover{color:var(--ink);border-color:var(--gold)}
|
|
275
|
-
.themebtn svg{width:14px;height:14px;fill:none;stroke:currentColor;stroke-width:1.8;
|
|
276
|
-
stroke-linecap:round;stroke-linejoin:round}
|
|
277
|
-
html[data-theme="dark"] .themebtn{box-shadow:none}
|
|
278
|
-
.themebtn .moon{display:block} .themebtn .sun{display:none}
|
|
279
|
-
html[data-theme="dark"] .themebtn .moon{display:none}
|
|
280
|
-
html[data-theme="dark"] .themebtn .sun{display:block}
|
|
281
|
-
.themebtn .lbl:after{content:"Dark"}
|
|
282
|
-
html[data-theme="dark"] .themebtn .lbl:after{content:"Light"}
|
|
283
|
-
footer{margin-top:40px;padding:24px 0 70px;border-top:1px solid var(--line);
|
|
284
|
-
font:14px/1.7 var(--sans);color:var(--ink-soft);
|
|
285
|
-
display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:8px 22px;justify-content:space-between}
|
|
286
|
-
footer a{color:var(--ink-soft)}
|
|
287
|
-
footer a:hover{color:var(--accent)}
|
|
288
|
-
footer .sig b{color:var(--ink);font-weight:600}
|
|
289
|
-
|
|
290
|
-
/* ---------- wide screens: the rail, and the breakout ---------- */
|
|
291
|
-
@media (min-width:1240px){
|
|
292
|
-
.toc{position:fixed;top:96px;left:max(24px,calc(50% - 596px));width:216px;
|
|
293
|
-
max-height:74vh;overflow-y:auto;margin:0;padding:0;border:none;
|
|
294
|
-
border-left:1px solid var(--line);padding-left:18px;z-index:5}
|
|
295
|
-
.toc ol{columns:1;font-size:14px}
|
|
296
|
-
.toc li{margin-bottom:9px}
|
|
297
|
-
/* charts break out of the measure; tables stay aligned with the prose,
|
|
298
|
-
because a table that starts left of the paragraph above it reads as a
|
|
299
|
-
layout fault rather than as emphasis */
|
|
300
|
-
.chartfig{margin-left:-38px;margin-right:-38px;
|
|
301
|
-
padding-left:26px;padding-right:26px}
|
|
302
|
-
}
|
|
303
|
-
@media (min-width:1240px) and (max-height:620px){ .toc{display:none} }
|
|
304
|
-
|
|
305
|
-
/* ---------- phones ---------- */
|
|
306
|
-
@media (max-width:640px){
|
|
307
|
-
body{font-size:17px;line-height:1.68}
|
|
308
|
-
.wrap{padding:0 18px 32px}
|
|
309
|
-
header{padding-top:34px}
|
|
310
|
-
.dek{font-size:18px}
|
|
311
|
-
h2{font-size:24px;margin-top:44px}
|
|
312
|
-
h3{font-size:20.5px}
|
|
313
|
-
/* a phone gets the sections, not every subhead: eleven rows of contents
|
|
314
|
-
is a screenful of scrolling before the article even starts */
|
|
315
|
-
.toc li.t3{display:none}
|
|
316
|
-
.toc ol{columns:2;column-gap:18px;font-size:14px}
|
|
317
|
-
.themebtn{top:9px;right:9px;padding:7px 11px}
|
|
318
|
-
table{font-size:14.5px}
|
|
319
|
-
th{font-size:10.5px;padding-right:12px}
|
|
320
|
-
td{padding-right:12px}
|
|
321
|
-
tr td:first-child{min-width:7.5em;padding-right:14px}
|
|
322
|
-
.epnav{grid-template-columns:1fr}
|
|
323
|
-
.epnav .epnext{text-align:left}
|
|
324
|
-
.epnav a:only-child{max-width:none}
|
|
325
|
-
.solnbody{font-size:17px;padding-left:15px}
|
|
326
|
-
/* charts earn the full width of a phone */
|
|
327
|
-
.chartfig{margin-left:-18px;margin-right:-18px;border-radius:0;
|
|
328
|
-
border-left:none;border-right:none;padding:16px 14px 12px}
|
|
329
|
-
}
|
|
330
|
-
|
|
331
|
-
/* ---------- print ---------- */
|
|
332
|
-
@page{margin:16mm 14mm}
|
|
333
|
-
@media print{
|
|
334
|
-
:root{--ink:#000;--ink-soft:#333;--line:#bbb;--paper:#fff;--tint:#f4f2ec;
|
|
335
|
-
--tint-2:#f8f7f3;--gold:#7a5c24;--accent:#123024;--up:#123024;
|
|
336
|
-
--down:#7a1f1f;--shadow:transparent}
|
|
337
|
-
html[data-theme="dark"]{--ink:#000;--ink-soft:#333;--line:#bbb;--paper:#fff;
|
|
338
|
-
--tint:#f4f2ec;--tint-2:#f8f7f3;--gold:#7a5c24;--accent:#123024}
|
|
339
|
-
body{font-size:11pt;line-height:1.5;background:#fff}
|
|
340
|
-
.wrap{max-width:none;padding:0}
|
|
341
|
-
#bar,.themebtn,.toc,.listen,.solnbar,.gsearch,.epnav,.anchor,.backq{display:none!important}
|
|
342
|
-
header{padding-top:0}
|
|
343
|
-
.masthead{border-color:#000}
|
|
344
|
-
h1{font-size:23pt;margin-top:14pt}
|
|
345
|
-
.dek{font-size:12pt}
|
|
346
|
-
h2{font-size:15pt;margin:22pt 0 8pt;break-after:avoid}
|
|
347
|
-
h3{font-size:13pt;margin:14pt 0 5pt;break-after:avoid}
|
|
348
|
-
p,li{orphans:3;widows:3}
|
|
349
|
-
.tablewrap{overflow:visible;background:none;break-inside:avoid}
|
|
350
|
-
.chartfig{break-inside:avoid;border-color:#ccc;background:none}
|
|
351
|
-
details{break-inside:avoid;margin:0}
|
|
352
|
-
/* the answers print open, labelled by question, without a button */
|
|
353
|
-
details.soln>summary{display:flex;border:none;background:none;
|
|
354
|
-
padding:10pt 0 2pt;border-top:1px solid #ddd}
|
|
355
|
-
summary .sl{display:none}
|
|
356
|
-
.solnbody{border-color:#999;margin:2pt 0 8pt;padding-left:0}
|
|
357
|
-
/* the cumulative glossary is a reference, not part of the article:
|
|
358
|
-
eighty-odd terms would add pages to every printout */
|
|
359
|
-
.glossec,details.archive{display:none}
|
|
360
|
-
a{color:#000;text-decoration:none}
|
|
361
|
-
footer{border-color:#000}
|
|
362
|
-
}
|
|
363
|
-
@media (prefers-reduced-motion:reduce){
|
|
364
|
-
html{scroll-behavior:auto}
|
|
365
|
-
*{animation-duration:.001ms!important;transition-duration:.001ms!important}
|
|
366
|
-
}
|
|
367
|
-
|
|
368
|
-
.chartfig{margin:36px 0;padding:22px 22px 16px;border:1px solid var(--line);
|
|
369
|
-
border-radius:10px;background:var(--tint-2,var(--tint))}
|
|
370
|
-
.charttitle{font:600 17.5px/1.3 var(--serif,Georgia,serif);color:var(--ink);
|
|
371
|
-
margin:0 0 16px;letter-spacing:-.012em}
|
|
372
|
-
.chartcap{font:italic 15.5px/1.55 var(--serif,Georgia,serif);color:var(--ink-soft);
|
|
373
|
-
margin:14px 2px 0;text-wrap:pretty}
|
|
374
|
-
.chartsrc{display:block;font:500 11.5px/1.5 var(--sans,ui-sans-serif,system-ui,sans-serif);
|
|
375
|
-
font-style:normal;letter-spacing:.05em;opacity:.8;margin-top:7px}
|
|
376
|
-
.chart{display:block;overflow:visible;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
|
|
377
|
-
@media (max-width:640px){
|
|
378
|
-
.charttitle{font-size:16.5px;margin-bottom:12px}
|
|
379
|
-
.chartcap{font-size:15px}
|
|
380
|
-
}
|
|
381
|
-
</style>
|
|
382
|
-
<script>
|
|
383
|
-
try{
|
|
384
|
-
var s = localStorage.getItem('cdd-theme');
|
|
385
|
-
if(s){ document.documentElement.setAttribute('data-theme', s); }
|
|
386
|
-
else if(window.matchMedia && window.matchMedia('(prefers-color-scheme: dark)').matches){
|
|
387
|
-
document.documentElement.setAttribute('data-theme','dark');
|
|
388
|
-
}
|
|
389
|
-
}catch(e){}
|
|
390
|
-
</script>
|
|
391
|
-
</head>
|
|
392
|
-
<body>
|
|
393
|
-
<div id="bar" aria-hidden="true"></div>
|
|
394
|
-
<button class="themebtn" type="button" aria-label="Switch colour theme">
|
|
395
|
-
<svg class="moon" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M21 12.8A9 9 0 1 1 11.2 3a7 7 0 0 0 9.8 9.8z"/></svg>
|
|
396
|
-
<svg class="sun" viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="4.2"/><path d="M12 2v2M12 20v2M4.9 4.9l1.4 1.4M17.7 17.7l1.4 1.4M2 12h2M20 12h2M4.9 19.1l1.4-1.4M17.7 6.3l1.4-1.4"/></svg>
|
|
397
|
-
<span class="lbl"></span>
|
|
398
|
-
</button>
|
|
399
|
-
<div class="wrap">
|
|
400
|
-
<header>
|
|
401
|
-
<div class="masthead">
|
|
402
|
-
<a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/index.html">Soft Commodity Trading</a>
|
|
403
|
-
<span class="epno">Ep 10</span>
|
|
404
|
-
</div>
|
|
405
|
-
<h1>Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering</h1>
|
|
406
|
-
<p class="dek">Why the smaller ship can be the expensive one, and why freight is the one leg of a hedged trade that stays open.</p>
|
|
407
|
-
<div class="meta">Friday 21 August 2026 · <b>15 min 16</b></div>
|
|
408
|
-
<div class="listen">
|
|
409
|
-
<audio controls preload="none" src="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10.mp3"></audio>
|
|
410
|
-
<div class="listenrow">
|
|
411
|
-
<span class="rates" role="group" aria-label="Playback speed">
|
|
412
|
-
<button type="button" class="rate" data-rate="1" aria-pressed="true">1×</button>
|
|
413
|
-
<button type="button" class="rate" data-rate="1.25" aria-pressed="false">1.25×</button>
|
|
414
|
-
<button type="button" class="rate" data-rate="1.5" aria-pressed="false">1.5×</button>
|
|
415
|
-
</span>
|
|
416
|
-
<button type="button" class="offline" id="offline" hidden aria-live="polite">Save offline</button>
|
|
417
|
-
<a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10.mp3" download>Download MP3</a>
|
|
418
|
-
<a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/feed.xml">Subscribe · RSS</a>
|
|
419
|
-
</div>
|
|
420
|
-
<p class="offnote" id="offnote" hidden></p>
|
|
421
|
-
</div>
|
|
422
|
-
<nav class="toc" id="toc" aria-label="Contents"><p class="tochead">Contents</p><ol><li class="t2"><a href="#market-pulse">Market pulse</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#key-takeaways">Key takeaways</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#vocabulary">Vocabulary</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#quiz">Quiz</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#solutions">Solutions</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#the-written-edition">The written edition</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#the-fleet-and-why-the-sizes-are-not-arbitrary">The fleet, and why the sizes are not arbitrary</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#the-screens-what-a-baltic-index-actually-is">The screens: what a Baltic index actually is</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#the-two-currencies-of-freight">The two currencies of freight</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#the-arb-and-the-leg-everybody-leaves-open">The arb, and the leg everybody leaves open</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#the-position-nobody-writes-down">The position nobody writes down</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#why-merchants-charter-rather-than-own">Why merchants charter rather than own</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#glossary">Glossary</a></li></ol></nav>
|
|
423
|
-
</header>
|
|
424
|
-
<main>
|
|
425
|
-
<h2 id="market-pulse">Market pulse<a class="anchor" href="#market-pulse" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2>
|
|
426
|
-
<p><strong>Corn took the session, and the most interesting price on the screen was not a grain at all.</strong></p>
|
|
427
|
-
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th>Commodity</th><th>Contract</th><th>Price</th><th class="num">Change</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Corn</td><td>Sep (CBOT)</td><td>478¾ c/bu</td><td class="num"><span class="mv up">+5¾¢</span></td></tr><tr><td>Corn</td><td>Dec (CBOT)</td><td>503½ c/bu</td><td class="num"><span class="mv up">+5½¢</span></td></tr><tr><td>Soybeans</td><td>Nov (CBOT)</td><td>1236½ c/bu</td><td class="num"><span class="mv down">−¾¢</span></td></tr><tr><td>Soybeans</td><td>Jan (CBOT)</td><td>1251½ c/bu</td><td class="num"><span class="mv up">+¼¢</span></td></tr><tr><td>Soymeal</td><td>Sep (CBOT)</td><td>—</td><td class="num"><span class="mv down">−1.0%</span></td></tr><tr><td>Soyoil</td><td>Sep (CBOT)</td><td>—</td><td class="num"><span class="mv up">+2.0%</span></td></tr><tr><td>Wheat SRW</td><td>Sep (CBOT)</td><td>682¾ c/bu</td><td class="num"><span class="mv up">+2½¢</span></td></tr><tr><td>Wheat HRW</td><td>Sep (KC)</td><td>762¼ c/bu</td><td class="num"><span class="mv up">+¼¢</span></td></tr><tr><td>Baltic Dry Index</td><td>—</td><td>2,791</td><td class="num"><span class="mv up">+15</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
|
|
428
|
-
<p>Corn was the clear winner and December closed above five dollars. The buying is coming from the Pro Farmer scouts, who keep walking out of fields with less than last year. Illinois was pegged at 184.2 bu/ac against 199.6 a year ago and a three-year average of 199.2. Indiana, Nebraska, western Iowa, South Dakota and Ohio all came in below average. Illinois soybean pod counts at 1,430 per three-by-three square were under last year's 1,479 but above the three-year average of 1,390, which is the split that keeps beans flat while corn rallies.</p>
|
|
429
|
-
<p>Beans were narrowly mixed and the complex went the other way from Wednesday: meal off about 1%, oil up about 2%. Weekly export sales were unremarkable at 41 m bu of corn, 66 m bu of beans and 14.5 m bu of wheat. New-crop Chinese commitments now stand at 5.69 mmt with a further 3.82 mmt to unknown destinations — still a promise on a balance sheet rather than a fact on a vessel.</p>
|
|
430
|
-
<p><strong>The geopolitical read: the missing thing is a ship, not a tonne.</strong> Ukrainian strikes have left Russia unable to move grain through the Sea of Azov. The transmission most people reach for is export capacity, and that is right, but the mechanism underneath it is vessel class. Azov is a shallow river-sea trade worked by 3,000–5,000 t coasters drawing under five metres. No Panamax can substitute into that water. The cargo has to be railed or trucked several hundred kilometres to deepwater at Novorossiysk, which is carrying its own constraints. Capacity does not shrink because tonnage vanished. It shrinks because the only ships that fit are the ones that cannot sail.</p>
|
|
431
|
-
<figure class="chartfig">
|
|
432
|
-
<figcaption class="charttitle">The smaller ship costs more</figcaption>
|
|
433
|
-
<svg class="chart" viewBox="0 0 640 330" width="100%" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid meet" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" role="img">
|
|
434
|
-
<style>.chart{--c-a:var(--accent,#1d4032);--c-b:var(--gold,#a8813c);--c-c:#4a6f8c;font-family:inherit}html[data-theme="dark"] .chart{--c-c:#7ba3c4}.chart .grid{stroke:var(--line,#ddd6c9);stroke-width:1}.chart .axis{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:12px}.chart .unit{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:11px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase}.chart .ln{fill:none;stroke-width:2.25;stroke-linejoin:round;stroke-linecap:round}.chart .lg{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:12.5px}.chart .vlabel{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:11.5px;font-weight:600}@media (max-width:900px){.chart .axis{font-size:14px}.chart .unit{font-size:13px}.chart .lg{font-size:14.5px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:13.5px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:2.6}}@media (max-width:640px){.chart .axis{font-size:16px}.chart .unit{font-size:14px}.chart .lg{font-size:16px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:15px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:3.1}}</style>
|
|
435
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="286.0" x2="622" y2="286.0"/>
|
|
436
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="290.0" text-anchor="end">0</text>
|
|
437
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="221.0" x2="622" y2="221.0" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
438
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="225.0" text-anchor="end">10,000</text>
|
|
439
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="156.0" x2="622" y2="156.0" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
440
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="160.0" text-anchor="end">20,000</text>
|
|
441
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="91.0" x2="622" y2="91.0" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
442
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="95.0" text-anchor="end">30,000</text>
|
|
443
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="26.0" x2="622" y2="26.0" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
444
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="30.0" text-anchor="end">40,000</text>
|
|
445
|
-
<text class="unit" x="622" y="16" text-anchor="end">USD per day</text>
|
|
446
|
-
<text class="axis" x="126.8" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Capesize</text>
|
|
447
|
-
<text class="axis" x="268.2" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Panamax</text>
|
|
448
|
-
<text class="axis" x="409.8" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Supramax</text>
|
|
449
|
-
<text class="axis" x="551.2" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Handysize</text>
|
|
450
|
-
<rect x="106.5" y="28.1" width="40.5" height="257.9" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
451
|
-
<rect x="248.0" y="162.7" width="40.5" height="123.3" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
452
|
-
<rect x="389.5" y="151.8" width="40.5" height="134.2" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
453
|
-
<rect x="531.0" y="184.6" width="40.5" height="101.4" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
454
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="286.0" x2="622" y2="286.0"/>
|
|
455
|
-
</svg>
|
|
456
|
-
<figcaption class="chartcap">A Supramax is roughly a third smaller than a Panamax and earned 1,687 dollars a day more. The classes are not one ladder — they serve different trades, and US Gulf Supramax routes have been firming while Asia-Pacific has gone quiet. <span class="chartsrc">Baltic Exchange sub-index average earnings, Wednesday 19 August 2026.</span></figcaption>
|
|
457
|
-
</figure>
|
|
458
|
-
<h2 id="key-takeaways">Key takeaways<a class="anchor" href="#key-takeaways" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2>
|
|
459
|
-
<ul><li>Vessel class is chosen by draft, gear and lot size, and only then by price. Read the berth before you read the index.</li><li>Deadweight is not cargo. An 82,000 dwt Kamsarmax carries roughly 66,000 t of beans once fuel, water and stores are aboard.</li><li>Baltic index points are not a price. They are a broker panel's route assessments converted into a time charter equivalent in dollars per day, and nobody can pay an index.</li><li>Dollars per tonne and dollars per day are the same freight under two different risk allocations. A voyage charter leaves the queue with the owner; a time charter buys it back onto your book.</li><li>A smaller vessel can be more expensive twice over — a higher day rate spread across fewer tonnes. On today's rates that is 30% more per tonne on the same cargo.</li><li>The moment a CFR sale is made and no vessel is fixed, the seller is short freight. The grain hedge does nothing about it, and no position sheet carries freight at the resolution it carries corn.</li><li>Twenty dollars a tonne of freight on a Panamax cargo is about 22,000 dollars a day of hire. That is an ordinary quarter in a market that has better than doubled inside twelve months.</li><li>FFAs hedge an index built from a basket of named routes, not your voyage. It is the same cross-hedge problem as pricing Black Sea wheat off Matif.</li><li>Bunkers sit underneath the freight. A Panamax burns about 30 t a day at sea, so a hundred-dollar move in fuel is seventeen percent of a sixteen-dollar margin, decided in the oil market.</li><li>Merchants charter rather than own because a ship is a twenty-five-year position taken to solve a sixty-day problem, and because knowing where the cargo is and knowing where the ship is are different businesses.</li></ul>
|
|
460
|
-
<h2 id="vocabulary">Vocabulary<a class="anchor" href="#vocabulary" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2>
|
|
461
|
-
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th>Term</th><th>Meaning</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Deadweight (dwt)</strong></td><td>The total weight a vessel can carry — cargo plus fuel, water, stores and crew — so always more than the cargo it can load</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Draft</strong></td><td>The depth of hull below the waterline, which rises as the ship loads and is the hard physical limit on which berths and rivers a vessel can enter</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Handysize</strong></td><td>The smallest mainstream dry bulk class, roughly 10,000–40,000 dwt, geared and able to work berths larger ships cannot reach</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Supramax</strong></td><td>A dry bulk vessel of roughly 50,000–60,000 dwt, normally carrying its own cranes, which works minor bulks and shorter legs</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Panamax / Kamsarmax</strong></td><td>The 75,000–82,000 dwt workhorse of the grain and coal trades, usually gearless and drawing about fourteen metres fully loaded</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Capesize</strong></td><td>A bulk carrier of about 180,000 dwt and up, too large for the Panama Canal, used mainly for iron ore and coal</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Geared vessel</strong></td><td>A ship carrying its own cranes, which can therefore discharge at a berth with no shore equipment</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Part cargo</strong></td><td>Loading a vessel below capacity because the berth, river or canal cannot take her full draft</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Baltic Dry Index (BDI)</strong></td><td>The Baltic Exchange's headline dry bulk freight index, a weighted composite of the Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize route assessments</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Time charter equivalent (TCE)</strong></td><td>A voyage's economics restated as dollars per day, which is how a shipowner compares one employment against another</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Voyage charter</strong></td><td>Hiring a vessel to move a stated cargo between named ports for a price in dollars per tonne, with the owner carrying the voyage and delay risk</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Time charter</strong></td><td>Hiring the vessel itself for a period at a price in dollars per day, with the charterer taking speed, weather, port delay and usually fuel</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Fixing</strong></td><td>Agreeing the charter of a specific vessel, the moment a freight exposure stops being open</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Forward freight agreement (FFA)</strong></td><td>A cash-settled swap on a Baltic index route or basket over a calendar month, the only liquid way to hedge freight</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Bunkers</strong></td><td>The vessel's fuel, priced separately from the hire and carried by the owner on a voyage charter and by the charterer on a time charter</td></tr><tr><td><strong>P7 / P8</strong></td><td>Baltic Panamax route codes for US Gulf to Qingdao and Santos to Qingdao, the two assessments that set the soybean origin arb</td></tr><tr><td><strong>River-sea vessel</strong></td><td>A small shallow-draft ship built to work both inland waterways and short sea legs, the only class able to load in the Sea of Azov</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Demand-to-supply ratio</strong></td><td>The Baltic's measure of tonne-mile demand growth against fleet growth, above 1.0 when cargo is outrunning ships</td></tr></tbody></table></div>
|
|
462
|
-
<h2 id="quiz">Quiz<a class="anchor" href="#quiz" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2>
|
|
463
|
-
<p id="q1" class="qq"><strong>Q1.</strong> A trader has 66,000 t of soybeans to move from Santos to Qingdao and can use either a Kamsarmax at 18,964 $/day or two Supramaxes at 20,651 $/day carrying 33,000 t each. Assume a 60-day round voyage for either class. Compute the freight cost per tonne both ways and state the difference in total dollars. Then give the two physical conditions under which the more expensive option is the only option, and explain why the day-rate comparison alone is the wrong first question.</p>
|
|
464
|
-
<p id="q2" class="qq"><strong>Q2.</strong> A desk buys 66,000 t FOB Santos and sells the same cargo CFR Qingdao at a gross spread of $74.00/t. Freight is expected at $52.00/t and other costs run $6.00/t. The board is fully hedged and both differentials are fixed in writing. The vessel is not yet fixed. Compute the expected margin in dollars per tonne and in total. Then recompute after freight rallies $20/t. Express that $20 as an equivalent change in daily hire, say which of the desk's risks was actually open, and name the instrument that would have covered it and the residual risk that instrument leaves behind.</p>
|
|
465
|
-
<p id="q3" class="qq"><strong>Q3.</strong> Baltic assessments this week put US Gulf–Qingdao at $73.81/t and Santos–Qingdao at $51.98/t. A Chinese crusher is indifferent between origins on delivered cost. US Gulf beans are offered FOB at a differential 15 c/bu <em>below</em> Santos. Convert that differential to dollars per tonne, combine it with the freight spread, and say which origin wins and by how much. Then explain what has to happen to the freight spread — not to the differentials — before the US Gulf becomes competitive, and why a Brazilian exporter watches the Panama Canal draft restrictions more closely than he watches CBOT.</p>
|
|
466
|
-
<p id="q4" class="qq"><strong>Q4.</strong> <em>(Ep 9)</em> Ep 9 established that a mandate creates demand that does not respond to price. Indonesia funds its B50 subsidy from a palm export levy it raised from 10% to 12.5%. Explain why a rising levy rate is a bearish signal for the programme's durability even though it is a bullish signal for palm prices today. Then say what a freight desk would want to know about Indonesian export volumes before pricing a Panamax to Rotterdam six months forward.</p>
|
|
467
|
-
<p id="q5" class="qq"><strong>Q5.</strong> <em>(Ep 9)</em> On Thursday soymeal fell about 1% while soyoil rose about 2%. Using ep 9's point that oil demand and meal demand are joined at the bushel, explain what that split does to the board crush and to the oil share, and say which of the two products a crusher would rather see lead a rally if the plant is running at capacity.</p>
|
|
468
|
-
<p id="q6" class="qq"><strong>Q6.</strong> <em>(Ep 7)</em> Ep 7 established that ending stocks is a residual roughly a tenth the size of production, so a 1% crop error is a 10% carryout error. Pro Farmer has Illinois corn at 184.2 bu/ac against USDA's national 180.7. Explain why a state number above the national number is not evidence that USDA is too low, and set out the two things you would need before letting a tour result move your own balance sheet.</p>
|
|
469
|
-
<p id="q7" class="qq"><strong>Q7.</strong> <em>(Ep 7)</em> A desk's own corn sheet uses 88.6 m harvested acres and its own yield. It wants to test how much of a yield miss the export line could absorb before the carryout falls below 1.400 bn bu. Starting from a carryout of 1.653 bn, compute how many bushels of cushion exist, convert that into bushels per acre of yield, and then explain why using exports as the offsetting line is a different kind of assumption from using feed and residual.</p>
|
|
470
|
-
<p id="q8" class="qq"><strong>Q8 — Conversion drill.</strong> A Rouen exporter is offered Matif November milling wheat at €218/t. A competing cargo is quoted CFR Rotterdam at $268/t. Assume EUR/USD at 1.16. Put both on the same currency and say which is cheaper, and by how much in euros per tonne. Then, if freight from the Black Sea to Rotterdam is $18/t, compute the implied FOB Black Sea value of that cargo in both dollars and euros per tonne.</p>
|
|
471
|
-
<h2 id="solutions">Solutions<a class="anchor" href="#solutions" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2><p class="secnote">One reveal per question — check your answer to Q1 without spoiling the rest.</p><div class="solnbar"><button type="button" class="ghost" data-solnall="open">Reveal all</button><button type="button" class="ghost" data-solnall="close">Hide all</button></div>
|
|
472
|
-
<details class="soln" id="a1"><summary><span class="qn">Q1</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>Take the hire first, then divide by what actually loads.</p>
|
|
473
|
-
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th></th><th class="num">Kamsarmax</th><th class="num">Two Supramaxes</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Cargo</td><td class="num">66,000 t</td><td class="num">2 × 33,000 t</td></tr><tr><td>Day rate</td><td class="num">$18,964</td><td class="num">$20,651 each</td></tr><tr><td>Days</td><td class="num">60</td><td class="num">60</td></tr><tr><td>Total hire</td><td class="num">$1,137,840</td><td class="num">$2,478,120</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Freight per tonne</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>$17.24</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>$37.55</strong></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
|
|
474
|
-
<p>The two-ship answer is roughly $20.31/t worse, or <strong>$1,340,280</strong> on the cargo. That is the compounding penalty: a higher rate spread over half the tonnes each, twice.</p>
|
|
475
|
-
<p>The realistic version is a single 55,000 t Supramax at <strong>$22.53/t</strong>, $5.29/t worse than the Kamsarmax — still about 31% more freight for the same job.</p>
|
|
476
|
-
<p>The two conditions that force the smaller ship are <strong>draft</strong> and <strong>gear</strong>. If the discharge berth carries nine metres of water, a loaded Kamsarmax at fourteen metres cannot enter, and part-cargoing her destroys the per-tonne advantage anyway. If the berth has no shore cranes, only a geared vessel can discharge, and Panamaxes are usually gearless. A third, softer condition is <strong>lot size</strong>: a buyer who wants 55,000 t is not going to take 66,000 t to help your freight.</p>
|
|
477
|
-
<p>The trap is the day-rate comparison. Freight per tonne has a numerator and a denominator, and the denominator is set by physics — hydrography and crane fitting — not by the market. The first question is what the berth can take. Only then does the rate matter.</p>
|
|
478
|
-
<p class="backq"><a href="#q1">↑ Back to question 1</a></p></div></details>
|
|
479
|
-
<details class="soln" id="a2"><summary><span class="qn">Q2</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>The margin, twice.</p>
|
|
480
|
-
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th></th><th class="num">As expected</th><th class="num">After the rally</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Gross spread (CFR sale − FOB buy)</td><td class="num">$74.00/t</td><td class="num">$74.00/t</td></tr><tr><td>Freight</td><td class="num">−$52.00/t</td><td class="num">−$72.00/t</td></tr><tr><td>Finance, insurance, port</td><td class="num">−$6.00/t</td><td class="num">−$6.00/t</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Margin</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>$16.00/t</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>−$4.00/t</strong></td></tr><tr><td><strong>On 66,000 t</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>$1,056,000</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>−$264,000</strong></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
|
|
481
|
-
<p>A swing of <strong>$1,320,000</strong> with the board never moving.</p>
|
|
482
|
-
<p>As daily hire: $20/t × 66,000 t = $1,320,000, spread over 60 days, is <strong>$22,000/day</strong>. Hire would have to go from about $18,964 to roughly $41,000 — near today's Capesize level. The Baltic Dry Index has ranged from 1,261 to 2,845 over the past 52 weeks, better than a double, so that is not an exotic scenario. It is a bad quarter.</p>
|
|
483
|
-
<p>The open risk was <strong>freight</strong>, and it was open because the desk sold CFR. Selling CFR means promising delivered cargo at a fixed price while still having to buy the ocean leg. That is structurally short freight. It hid because a position sheet has columns for bushels and lots and none for tonne-miles.</p>
|
|
484
|
-
<p>The instrument is an <strong>FFA</strong> — a cash-settled swap on the Baltic Panamax index, sized to the freight exposure, bought (long) to cover a short-freight position. The residual is <strong>basis risk in a new suit</strong>. The FFA settles against the P5TC basket average over a calendar month. The exposure is one voyage, on one route, fixed on one day. The Santos route can move against the basket, the fixing date can miss the settlement window, and the tonnage mismatch is never exact. It is the Black Sea wheat problem from ep 5, wearing shipping clothes.</p>
|
|
485
|
-
<p class="backq"><a href="#q2">↑ Back to question 2</a></p></div></details>
|
|
486
|
-
<details class="soln" id="a3"><summary><span class="qn">Q3</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>Convert the differential first. Soybeans run 36.7439 bu/t, so 15 c/bu × 36.7439 ÷ 100 = <strong>$5.51/t</strong>.</p>
|
|
487
|
-
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th></th><th class="num">US Gulf</th><th class="num">Santos</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>FOB differential</td><td class="num">−$5.51/t</td><td class="num">reference</td></tr><tr><td>Freight to Qingdao</td><td class="num">$73.81/t</td><td class="num">$51.98/t</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Delivered, relative</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>+$68.30/t</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>+$51.98/t</strong></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
|
|
488
|
-
<p>Santos wins by <strong>$16.32/t</strong>. The freight spread is $21.83/t and the FOB discount recovers only a quarter of it.</p>
|
|
489
|
-
<p>For the US Gulf to compete, the freight spread has to close by more than $16.32/t on its own — the differential is not going to do it, because 15 c/bu is already a serious concession and $16.32/t is another 44 c/bu on top. Freight spreads move for structural reasons: Panama Canal transit availability and draft restrictions, Capesize demand pulling Panamax tonnage out of the Atlantic, US Gulf river levels forcing part cargoes, and the seasonal ballast pattern that leaves ships positioned in the wrong ocean.</p>
|
|
490
|
-
<p>The Brazilian exporter watches canal draft because it is the cheapest lever on his competitor's cost. A draft restriction at Gatún adds days and dollars to every US Gulf–Asia voyage, or pushes it around the Cape of Good Hope, and every dollar of that lands on the delivered price of the beans he is competing with. CBOT moves both origins together and nets out of the arb. The canal moves only one of them.</p>
|
|
491
|
-
<p class="backq"><a href="#q3">↑ Back to question 3</a></p></div></details>
|
|
492
|
-
<details class="soln" id="a4"><summary><span class="qn">Q4</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>The two signals point in opposite directions because they are about different horizons.</p>
|
|
493
|
-
<p>Today the levy is <strong>bullish palm</strong>: a higher export tax raises the FOB price a foreign buyer must pay and withdraws exportable supply, which is a supply shock decided in a ministry rather than in a plantation.</p>
|
|
494
|
-
<p>For the programme it is <strong>bearish</strong>, because the levy is the funding mechanism and the mandate's purpose is to shrink the export base the levy is collected on. A subsidy funded by a tax on the thing it is designed to reduce has to raise the rate as it succeeds. The rate is therefore the honest gauge of affordability. A rising rate says the per-tonne burden on a shrinking export volume is climbing, which is exactly the path toward a mandate that gets quietly deferred.</p>
|
|
495
|
-
<p>A freight desk pricing a Panamax to Rotterdam six months forward wants <strong>export volume, not price</strong>. Freight is paid on tonne-miles. If B50 plus the levy takes several million tonnes a year out of the Indonesian export programme, that is Panamax and Supramax cargoes that stop existing on the Indonesia–Europe and Indonesia–India legs, and tonnage that has to reposition or accept lower rates. The palm price can rise while the freight demand it generates falls. Those are not the same trade.</p>
|
|
496
|
-
<p class="backq"><a href="#q4">↑ Back to question 4</a></p></div></details>
|
|
497
|
-
<details class="soln" id="a5"><summary><span class="qn">Q5</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>Oil up 2% and meal down 1% moves the <strong>oil share</strong> up and does very little for the <strong>board crush</strong>, which is a weighted difference rather than a level.</p>
|
|
498
|
-
<p>Meal is the larger revenue line for a US crusher — a bushel yields roughly 44 lb of meal and 11 lb of oil — so a 1% loss on meal is close to offsetting a 2% gain on oil in absolute dollars. Beans were roughly unchanged, so the crush was roughly unchanged: a flat day disguised as a two-way move.</p>
|
|
499
|
-
<p>If the plant is <strong>running at capacity</strong>, the crusher would rather see <strong>meal</strong> lead. Meal is where the tonnage is, and meal has to be sold locally into a feed market that cannot be arbitraged across an ocean cheaply. An oil-led rally is the one the crusher captures least of, because meeting the oil demand forces out four pounds of meal for every extra pound of oil, and that meal has to find a home at whatever price clears it. This is the joined-at-the-bushel constraint: at capacity there is no volume response available, so the only thing that helps is the price of the product you are already making the most of.</p>
|
|
500
|
-
<p class="backq"><a href="#q5">↑ Back to question 5</a></p></div></details>
|
|
501
|
-
<details class="soln" id="a6"><summary><span class="qn">Q6</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>A state yield above a national yield is not evidence of anything, because they are different populations. The national number is an area-weighted average across all producing states, and it includes the ones the tour has just called below average — Nebraska, South Dakota, Ohio, Indiana, western Iowa. Illinois is usually one of the strongest corn states in the country. Its yield sits above the national average in almost every year, so 184.2 against a national 180.7 says nothing until it is compared with <strong>Illinois's own history</strong>, which is 199.6 last year and 199.2 on a three-year average. On that basis it is a very large miss, not a beat.</p>
|
|
502
|
-
<p>Two things are needed before a tour result moves a sheet. First, the <strong>methodology gap</strong>: Pro Farmer counts ears and measures grain length in a sample of fields on a fixed route in mid-August, then applies a fixed kernel-weight factor. USDA's August number comes from a farmer survey plus objective plot counts, and it will be revised as kernel weight is actually measured in September and October. The tour is a good early read on ear counts and a poor read on final kernel weight, and kernel weight is where the last ten bushels live. Second, the <strong>weighting</strong>: a yield is worth nothing without harvested area behind it. Moving Illinois down fifteen bushels changes the national number by roughly the ratio of Illinois harvested acres to the US total, so the arithmetic has to be done state by state and weighted, not intuited from a headline.</p>
|
|
503
|
-
<p class="backq"><a href="#q6">↑ Back to question 6</a></p></div></details>
|
|
504
|
-
<details class="soln" id="a7"><summary><span class="qn">Q7</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>The cushion first.</p>
|
|
505
|
-
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th></th><th class="num">Bushels</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Carryout, USDA</td><td class="num">1,653,000,000</td></tr><tr><td>Target floor</td><td class="num">1,400,000,000</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Cushion</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>253,000,000</strong></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
|
|
506
|
-
<p>Across 88.6 m harvested acres that is 253 ÷ 88.6 = <strong>2.86 bu/ac</strong>. A yield of 180.7 falling to about <strong>177.8</strong> takes the carryout to 1.400 bn, all else equal.</p>
|
|
507
|
-
<p>Using <strong>exports</strong> as the offsetting line is a behavioural assumption. Exports are a competitive outcome: they depend on what Brazil has, on freight, on FX, on Chinese buying policy. If the crop shrinks and the price rises, exports should fall, so the two lines are genuinely linked and the offset has an economic story behind it. But it is a forecast about other people's decisions, and it can be wrong in either direction for a whole season.</p>
|
|
508
|
-
<p>Using <strong>feed and residual</strong> is a different animal, because that line is not measured at all. It is backed out of the quarterly Grain Stocks survey, so it absorbs both real livestock feeding and every measurement error in production and in stocks. Flexing it is not a demand forecast — it is an admission that the sheet does not balance and a decision about where to put the difference. Both are legitimate. But one is a view on the world and the other is a view on your own arithmetic, and confusing them is how a desk convinces itself it has an edge when it only has a rounding error.</p>
|
|
509
|
-
<p class="backq"><a href="#q7">↑ Back to question 7</a></p></div></details>
|
|
510
|
-
<details class="soln" id="a8"><summary><span class="qn">Q8</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p><strong>Conversion drill.</strong> Cross the currency first.</p>
|
|
511
|
-
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th></th><th class="num">Quote</th><th>Conversion</th><th class="num">Common currency</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Matif Nov milling wheat</td><td class="num">€218/t</td><td>× 1.16</td><td class="num">$252.88/t</td></tr><tr><td>CFR Rotterdam cargo</td><td class="num">$268/t</td><td>÷ 1.16</td><td class="num">€231.03/t</td></tr></tbody></table></div>
|
|
512
|
-
<p>The Matif value is the cheaper of the two, by <strong>$15.12/t</strong>, or <strong>€13.03/t</strong>.</p>
|
|
513
|
-
<p>Now back the freight out of the imported cargo. CFR Rotterdam $268/t less $18/t of freight leaves an implied <strong>FOB Black Sea of $250.00/t</strong>, which at 1.16 is <strong>€215.52/t</strong>.</p>
|
|
514
|
-
<p>Which is the useful part of the exercise: the imported cargo looked $15 expensive on a delivered basis, but its FOB value sits €2.48/t <em>below</em> the Matif quote. The freight was carrying the entire difference and then some. Any Matif-versus-origin comparison that skips the freight leg is comparing two prices that were never quoted on the same terms.</p>
|
|
515
|
-
<p class="backq"><a href="#q8">↑ Back to question 8</a></p></div></details><h2 id="the-written-edition">The written edition<a class="anchor" href="#the-written-edition" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2>
|
|
516
|
-
<p>Yesterday a Supramax bulk carrier earned $20,651 a day. A Panamax, about a third bigger, earned $18,964. The smaller ship was the more expensive ship, and it was the more expensive ship per tonne by a much wider margin than that gap suggests.</p>
|
|
517
|
-
<p>That inversion is a good place to start, because it breaks the intuition that the dry bulk fleet is a ladder with cheap small ships at the bottom and expensive large ones at the top. It is not a ladder. It is four separate markets that happen to be measured on the same page.</p>
|
|
518
|
-
<h3 id="the-fleet-and-why-the-sizes-are-not-arbitrary">The fleet, and why the sizes are not arbitrary<a class="anchor" href="#the-fleet-and-why-the-sizes-are-not-arbitrary" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
|
|
519
|
-
<p>The classes, in deadweight tonnes:</p>
|
|
520
|
-
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th>Class</th><th>Deadweight</th><th>Typical cargo</th><th>Gear</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Handysize</td><td>10,000–40,000 dwt</td><td>Minor bulks, short legs</td><td>Geared</td></tr><tr><td>Supramax</td><td>50,000–60,000 dwt</td><td>Minor bulks, grain part cargoes</td><td>Geared</td></tr><tr><td>Panamax / Kamsarmax</td><td>75,000–82,000 dwt</td><td>Grain, coal</td><td>Usually gearless</td></tr><tr><td>Capesize</td><td>180,000 dwt and up</td><td>Iron ore, coal</td><td>Gearless</td></tr></tbody></table></div>
|
|
521
|
-
<p><strong>Deadweight is not cargo.</strong> It is everything the ship can carry: cargo, bunkers, fresh water, stores, crew and their effects. An 82,000 dwt Kamsarmax sailing Santos to Qingdao is carrying something like 3,000 tonnes of fuel before a single bean goes in the hold. She loads roughly 66,000 t. Treating dwt as cargo capacity overstates a cargo by a fifth, and that error propagates straight into a freight-per-tonne number.</p>
|
|
522
|
-
<p>The classes exist because of <strong>draft</strong> — the depth of hull below the waterline, which increases as the ship loads. A fully laden Panamax draws about fourteen metres. A very large number of the world's berths, rivers and approach channels cannot take fourteen metres. When they cannot, there are exactly two options: load the big ship partly full, which is called a <strong>part cargo</strong> and throws away the scale advantage, or take a smaller ship.</p>
|
|
523
|
-
<p>The second constraint is <strong>gear</strong>. A Supramax normally carries its own cranes. A Panamax normally does not. If the discharge berth has no shore equipment, the vessel class has already been decided, and no freight rate changes that.</p>
|
|
524
|
-
<p>This is why the Sea of Azov story is a vessel-class story rather than a tonnage story. Azov is shallow water worked by 3,000–5,000 t river-sea vessels drawing under five metres. When that trade is shut, the world's spare Panamax tonnage is entirely irrelevant to it. The ships that fit cannot sail, and the ships that can sail do not fit.</p>
|
|
525
|
-
<h3 id="the-screens-what-a-baltic-index-actually-is">The screens: what a Baltic index actually is<a class="anchor" href="#the-screens-what-a-baltic-index-actually-is" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
|
|
526
|
-
<p>The Baltic Exchange publishes a headline index, the BDI, and a sub-index for each class. On Thursday the BDI printed 2,791, up 15.</p>
|
|
527
|
-
<p>Here is the unit moment that matters most on this subject: <strong>those points are not a price, and nobody can pay them</strong>. The Baltic surveys a panel of shipbrokers each day on a fixed basket of named routes, then converts the assessments into a <strong>time charter equivalent</strong> — TCE, in dollars per day. That is the number a shipowner thinks in, because it is what lets him compare a grain voyage against a coal voyage against a period fix.</p>
|
|
528
|
-
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th>Index</th><th class="num">Points</th><th class="num">Average earnings</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Capesize (BCI)</td><td class="num">4,376</td><td class="num">$39,684/day</td></tr><tr><td>Panamax (BPI)</td><td class="num">2,107</td><td class="num">$18,964/day</td></tr><tr><td>Supramax (BSI)</td><td class="num">1,634</td><td class="num">$20,651/day</td></tr><tr><td>Handysize (BHSI)</td><td class="num">867</td><td class="num">$15,605/day</td></tr></tbody></table></div>
|
|
529
|
-
<p>Read the middle two again. The Supramax is the smaller vessel and it is earning more per day. They are different trades: Panamaxes live on coal and large grain lots, Supramaxes on minor bulks and shorter legs, and US Gulf Supramax routes have been firming recently while Asia-Pacific has gone quiet.</p>
|
|
530
|
-
<figure class="chartfig">
|
|
531
|
-
<figcaption class="charttitle">Same cargo, two vessel classes</figcaption>
|
|
532
|
-
<svg class="chart" viewBox="0 0 640 330" width="100%" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid meet" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" role="img">
|
|
533
|
-
<style>.chart{--c-a:var(--accent,#1d4032);--c-b:var(--gold,#a8813c);--c-c:#4a6f8c;font-family:inherit}html[data-theme="dark"] .chart{--c-c:#7ba3c4}.chart .grid{stroke:var(--line,#ddd6c9);stroke-width:1}.chart .axis{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:12px}.chart .unit{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:11px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase}.chart .ln{fill:none;stroke-width:2.25;stroke-linejoin:round;stroke-linecap:round}.chart .lg{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:12.5px}.chart .vlabel{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:11.5px;font-weight:600}@media (max-width:900px){.chart .axis{font-size:14px}.chart .unit{font-size:13px}.chart .lg{font-size:14.5px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:13.5px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:2.6}}@media (max-width:640px){.chart .axis{font-size:16px}.chart .unit{font-size:14px}.chart .lg{font-size:16px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:15px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:3.1}}</style>
|
|
534
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="286.0" x2="622" y2="286.0"/>
|
|
535
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="290.0" text-anchor="end">0</text>
|
|
536
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="234.0" x2="622" y2="234.0" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
537
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="238.0" text-anchor="end">5</text>
|
|
538
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="182.0" x2="622" y2="182.0" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
539
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="186.0" text-anchor="end">10</text>
|
|
540
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="130.0" x2="622" y2="130.0" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
541
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="134.0" text-anchor="end">15</text>
|
|
542
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="78.0" x2="622" y2="78.0" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
543
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="82.0" text-anchor="end">20</text>
|
|
544
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="26.0" x2="622" y2="26.0" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
545
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="30.0" text-anchor="end">25</text>
|
|
546
|
-
<text class="unit" x="622" y="16" text-anchor="end">USD per tonne</text>
|
|
547
|
-
<text class="axis" x="197.5" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Kamsarmax, 66,000 t</text>
|
|
548
|
-
<text class="axis" x="480.5" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Supramax, 55,000 t</text>
|
|
549
|
-
<rect x="177.3" y="106.7" width="40.5" height="179.3" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
550
|
-
<rect x="460.3" y="51.7" width="40.5" height="234.3" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
551
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="286.0" x2="622" y2="286.0"/>
|
|
552
|
-
</svg>
|
|
553
|
-
<figcaption class="chartcap">A 60-day round voyage at Wednesday's rates. The Supramax costs 31% more per tonne — a higher day rate spread across fewer tonnes, so the penalty compounds. Nobody chooses this. The berth chooses it. <span class="chartsrc">Worked example, episode 10, using Baltic average earnings of 18,964 and 20,651 USD per day.</span></figcaption>
|
|
554
|
-
</figure>
|
|
555
|
-
<h3 id="the-two-currencies-of-freight">The two currencies of freight<a class="anchor" href="#the-two-currencies-of-freight" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
|
|
556
|
-
<p>Freight is quoted two ways, and fluency in both is not optional.</p>
|
|
557
|
-
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th></th><th>Voyage charter</th><th>Time charter</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Unit</td><td>$/tonne of cargo</td><td>$/day of hire</td></tr><tr><td>What you buy</td><td>Carriage of a stated cargo between named ports</td><td>The vessel itself, for a period</td></tr><tr><td>Weather and speed risk</td><td>Owner</td><td>Charterer</td></tr><tr><td>Port queue and delay</td><td>Owner (subject to laytime and demurrage)</td><td>Charterer</td></tr><tr><td>Bunkers</td><td>Owner</td><td>Charterer</td></tr></tbody></table></div>
|
|
558
|
-
<p>Same steel, two prices, two completely different risk allocations. Converting between them is what a chartering desk does all day, and the conversion is never clean, because it requires a view on how long the voyage will actually take.</p>
|
|
559
|
-
<p>That view is the whole argument:</p>
|
|
560
|
-
<blockquote><strong>TRADER:</strong> Sixty-six Santos, first half October. What's it costing me?<br><strong>CHARTERER:</strong> Fifty-two on voyage. Or I put you on a Kamsarmax, time charter, nineteen five.<br><strong>TRADER:</strong> Which one do I want?<br><strong>CHARTERER:</strong> Depends who you think eats the queue at Santos.</blockquote>
|
|
561
|
-
<p>Neither of them called freight $52 and left it there. One number is a price; the other is a transfer of risk. Whichever is cheaper depends on the line-up at Santos in October, and neither of them knows the line-up in October. What they are actually negotiating is who carries that ignorance.</p>
|
|
562
|
-
<h3 id="the-arb-and-the-leg-everybody-leaves-open">The arb, and the leg everybody leaves open<a class="anchor" href="#the-arb-and-the-leg-everybody-leaves-open" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
|
|
563
|
-
<p>Baltic route assessments this week put <strong>P7</strong>, US Gulf to Qingdao, at $73.81/t, and <strong>P8</strong>, Santos to Qingdao, at $51.98/t. That $21.83/t gap decides whose beans China buys far more often than the FOB differential does — 15 c/bu of origin discount is only $5.51/t, barely a quarter of the freight spread.</p>
|
|
564
|
-
<p>Now the trade that actually kills people. Buy 66,000 t FOB Santos, sell the same cargo CFR Qingdao.</p>
|
|
565
|
-
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th>Line</th><th class="num">$/tonne</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Gross spread (CFR sale − FOB buy)</td><td class="num">74.00</td></tr><tr><td>Freight</td><td class="num">−52.00</td></tr><tr><td>Finance, insurance, port</td><td class="num">−6.00</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Margin</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>16.00</strong></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
|
|
566
|
-
<p>Sixteen dollars a tonne is $1,056,000 on the cargo. Sell the board against the physical and flat price is gone. Both differentials are agreed in writing. The trade looks locked.</p>
|
|
567
|
-
<p>Except the vessel is not fixed. Freight rallies $20/t before it is.</p>
|
|
568
|
-
<figure class="chartfig">
|
|
569
|
-
<figcaption class="charttitle">Santos to Qingdao, one Panamax</figcaption>
|
|
570
|
-
<svg class="chart" viewBox="0 0 640 330" width="100%" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid meet" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" role="img">
|
|
571
|
-
<style>.chart{--c-a:var(--accent,#1d4032);--c-b:var(--gold,#a8813c);--c-c:#4a6f8c;font-family:inherit}html[data-theme="dark"] .chart{--c-c:#7ba3c4}.chart .grid{stroke:var(--line,#ddd6c9);stroke-width:1}.chart .axis{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:12px}.chart .unit{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:11px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase}.chart .ln{fill:none;stroke-width:2.25;stroke-linejoin:round;stroke-linecap:round}.chart .lg{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:12.5px}.chart .vlabel{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:11.5px;font-weight:600}@media (max-width:900px){.chart .axis{font-size:14px}.chart .unit{font-size:13px}.chart .lg{font-size:14.5px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:13.5px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:2.6}}@media (max-width:640px){.chart .axis{font-size:16px}.chart .unit{font-size:14px}.chart .lg{font-size:16px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:15px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:3.1}}</style>
|
|
572
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="286.0" x2="622" y2="286.0" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
573
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="290.0" text-anchor="end">-20</text>
|
|
574
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="234.1" x2="622" y2="234.1"/>
|
|
575
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="238.1" text-anchor="end">0</text>
|
|
576
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="182.2" x2="622" y2="182.2" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
577
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="186.2" text-anchor="end">20</text>
|
|
578
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="130.4" x2="622" y2="130.4" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
579
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="134.4" text-anchor="end">40</text>
|
|
580
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="78.5" x2="622" y2="78.5" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
581
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="82.5" text-anchor="end">60</text>
|
|
582
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="26.6" x2="622" y2="26.6" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
583
|
-
<text class="axis" x="46" y="30.6" text-anchor="end">80</text>
|
|
584
|
-
<text class="unit" x="622" y="16" text-anchor="end">USD per tonne</text>
|
|
585
|
-
<text class="axis" x="103.2" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Gross spread</text>
|
|
586
|
-
<text class="axis" x="197.5" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Freight at 52</text>
|
|
587
|
-
<text class="axis" x="291.8" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Finance, insurance, port</text>
|
|
588
|
-
<text class="axis" x="386.2" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Margin</text>
|
|
589
|
-
<text class="axis" x="480.5" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Freight rallies 20</text>
|
|
590
|
-
<text class="axis" x="574.8" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Margin after</text>
|
|
591
|
-
<rect x="73.9" y="42.2" width="58.5" height="191.9" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".92"/>
|
|
592
|
-
<text class="vlabel" x="103.2" y="35.2" text-anchor="middle">74</text>
|
|
593
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="132.4" y1="42.2" x2="168.3" y2="42.2" stroke-dasharray="3 3" opacity=".5"/>
|
|
594
|
-
<rect x="168.3" y="42.2" width="58.5" height="134.9" rx="2" fill="#8a3b2f" opacity=".78"/>
|
|
595
|
-
<text class="vlabel" x="197.5" y="35.2" text-anchor="middle">-52</text>
|
|
596
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="226.7" y1="177.1" x2="262.6" y2="177.1" stroke-dasharray="3 3" opacity=".5"/>
|
|
597
|
-
<rect x="262.6" y="177.1" width="58.5" height="15.6" rx="2" fill="#8a3b2f" opacity=".78"/>
|
|
598
|
-
<text class="vlabel" x="291.8" y="170.1" text-anchor="middle">-6</text>
|
|
599
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="321.1" y1="192.6" x2="356.9" y2="192.6" stroke-dasharray="3 3" opacity=".5"/>
|
|
600
|
-
<rect x="356.9" y="192.6" width="58.5" height="41.5" rx="2" fill="var(--c-b)" opacity=".92"/>
|
|
601
|
-
<text class="vlabel" x="386.2" y="185.6" text-anchor="middle">16</text>
|
|
602
|
-
<rect x="451.3" y="192.6" width="58.5" height="51.9" rx="2" fill="#8a3b2f" opacity=".78"/>
|
|
603
|
-
<text class="vlabel" x="480.5" y="185.6" text-anchor="middle">-20</text>
|
|
604
|
-
<line class="grid" x1="509.7" y1="244.5" x2="545.6" y2="244.5" stroke-dasharray="3 3" opacity=".5"/>
|
|
605
|
-
<rect x="545.6" y="234.1" width="58.5" height="10.4" rx="2" fill="var(--c-b)" opacity=".92"/>
|
|
606
|
-
<text class="vlabel" x="574.8" y="227.1" text-anchor="middle">-4</text>
|
|
607
|
-
</svg>
|
|
608
|
-
<figcaption class="chartcap">Freight is two thirds of the gross spread before a single dollar of margin is counted. A twenty-dollar rally on the unfixed leg turns 1.06 million dollars of profit into a 264,000 dollar loss, and the board never moved. <span class="chartsrc">Worked example, episode 10, freight from Baltic P8 Santos–Qingdao at 51.98 USD per tonne.</span></figcaption>
|
|
609
|
-
</figure>
|
|
610
|
-
<p>The margin goes to <strong>−$4.00/t</strong>, a loss of $264,000. A swing of $1.32 m on a fully hedged trade.</p>
|
|
611
|
-
<p>Is $20/t an outrageous move? Spread over the 66,000 t cargo and the 60-day round voyage, it is about <strong>$22,000 a day</strong> of extra hire — taking a Panamax from $18,964 to roughly $41,000, which is near today's Capesize level. The BDI has ranged between 1,261 and 2,845 over the past 52 weeks, better than a double. Twenty dollars is not a tail event. It is a bad quarter.</p>
|
|
612
|
-
<h3 id="the-position-nobody-writes-down">The position nobody writes down<a class="anchor" href="#the-position-nobody-writes-down" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
|
|
613
|
-
<p>Here is the sentence worth keeping: <strong>the moment a CFR sale is made and no vessel is fixed, the seller is short freight.</strong></p>
|
|
614
|
-
<p>It runs both ways. Buy CFR and sell FOB and the position is long freight. Two trades can look identically flat on the grain and point in opposite directions on the ocean.</p>
|
|
615
|
-
<p>The reason this hides is structural rather than careless. A position sheet has columns for bushels, lots, months and locations. It very rarely carries freight at the same resolution, and when it does, the exposure is often booked at the <em>expected</em> rate rather than marked to the index. A book that is flat in every grain column can be carrying seven figures of directional freight risk that nothing on the page names.</p>
|
|
616
|
-
<p><strong>FFAs</strong> are the answer, as far as there is one: cash-settled swaps on a Baltic index route or basket, over a calendar month. A short-freight position is covered by buying FFAs. But the hedge is an index built from a basket of named routes, and the exposure is one voyage on one route fixed on one day. The route can move against the basket, the fixing can miss the settlement window, and the tonnage never matches exactly. This is the cross-hedge problem from ep 5 — a Black Sea cargo hedged on Matif — wearing shipping clothes.</p>
|
|
617
|
-
<p>Underneath the freight sits <strong>fuel</strong>. A Panamax burns roughly 30 t a day at sea, so a 60-day voyage is about 1,800 t of bunkers. A hundred-dollar move in fuel is $180,000, or $2.73/t on the cargo — seventeen percent of a sixteen-dollar margin, decided in the oil market. On a voyage charter the owner wears it. On a time charter, the charterer does, which is a large part of what the two quotes in that dialogue were really about.</p>
|
|
618
|
-
<h3 id="why-merchants-charter-rather-than-own">Why merchants charter rather than own<a class="anchor" href="#why-merchants-charter-rather-than-own" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
|
|
619
|
-
<p>If freight matters this much, why does almost every merchant rent its tonnage?</p>
|
|
620
|
-
<p>Three reasons, and only the third is about shipping.</p>
|
|
621
|
-
<p>A ship is a <strong>twenty-five-year asset</strong> and a cargo is a sixty-day problem. Owning one to solve the other means holding a two-decade position to cover a two-month exposure, which is not a hedge — it is a second business.</p>
|
|
622
|
-
<p>The merchant's edge is <strong>knowing where the cargo is</strong>, not knowing where the ship is. Those are genuinely different information games, played by different people, on different cycles.</p>
|
|
623
|
-
<p>And shipping is more violently cyclical than grain. A trading margin financed by a shipping balance sheet stops behaving like a trading margin: the freight cycle's drawdowns are deep enough to constrain the working capital that the grain business runs on, at exactly the moments when grain opportunities appear.</p>
|
|
624
|
-
<p>The houses that do own tonnage mostly own it for a narrower reason: to guarantee <strong>access</strong> on the days when access, not price, is the binding constraint. That is a real reason. It is just not a trading reason, and the distinction is worth holding onto, because it is the same distinction that separates owning an elevator from having a view on basis — which is Monday's subject.</p>
|
|
625
|
-
<section class="glossec"><h2 id="glossary">Glossary<a class="anchor" href="#glossary" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2><p class="secnote">Every unit, convention and desk expression the show had introduced by episode 10. Nothing said in the audio should ever be unrecoverable.</p><details class="gloss"><summary>Open the glossary<span class="sl">167 terms</span></summary><div class="glossbody"><label class="gsearch"><span class="vh">Search the glossary</span><input type="search" id="gfilter" placeholder="Search terms…" autocomplete="off"></label><div class="gchips" role="group" aria-label="Filter by episode"><button type="button" class="gchip on" data-gep="all">All<span class="gn">167</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="1">Ep 1<span class="gn">37</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="2">Ep 2<span class="gn">15</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="3">Ep 3<span class="gn">11</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="4">Ep 4<span class="gn">13</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="5">Ep 5<span class="gn">12</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="6">Ep 6<span class="gn">13</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="7">Ep 7<span class="gn">14</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="8">Ep 8<span class="gn">16</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="9">Ep 9<span class="gn">18</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="10">Ep 10<span class="gn">18</span></button></div><dl id="glist"><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>45Z</dt><dd>the US clean fuel production credit, one of the two policy levers that sets American soybean oil demand <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>abandonment</dt><dd>planted area never harvested for grain, lost to drought, flood or a switch to silage <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>ABCD</dt><dd>the four historic majors, Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>arb</dt><dd>the full economics of moving a cargo, buy price plus freight and costs against the sale <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>asset-heavy</dt><dd>owning the physical chain, which converts a volatile trading margin into a steadier toll <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>asset-light</dt><dd>renting elevators, terminals and plants rather than owning them <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>at</dt><dd>the small word that introduces the offer side (462 bid, at 462 and a half) <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>B50</dt><dd>a blending mandate requiring 50 percent biodiesel in the diesel pool, the level Indonesia moved to in 2026 <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>bag (coffee)</dt><dd>60 kg, how the coffee trade counts volume <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>balance sheet</dt><dd>the one-page supply and demand statement for one crop and one marketing year, built so that supply minus use equals ending stocks and the page closes <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>Baltic Dry Index (BDI)</dt><dd>the Baltic Exchange headline dry bulk freight index, a weighted composite of the Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize route assessments <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>bid</dt><dd>the price a buyer will pay <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>bill of lading</dt><dd>receipt, contract of carriage and document of title in one, whoever holds it owns the cargo <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>biomass-based diesel</dt><dd>the RFS category covering biodiesel and renewable diesel made from fats and vegetable oils <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>blend wall</dt><dd>the physical or warranty limit on how much conventional biodiesel an engine or fuel system will tolerate <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>board crush</dt><dd>the processing margin implied purely by futures prices, meal price times 0.022 plus oil price times 0.11 minus the bean price, in dollars per bushel <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>bunkers</dt><dd>the vessel's fuel, priced separately from the hire and carried by the owner on a voyage charter and by the charterer on a time charter <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>bushel</dt><dd>volume measure standardized into weight, 60 lb for soybeans and wheat, 56 lb for corn <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>bushels per tonne</dt><dd>about 36.7 for soybeans and wheat, 39.4 for corn <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>calendar spread</dt><dd>the price difference between two months of the same contract, traded as one instrument at one price <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>cancelling date</dt><dd>the last day of the laycan, after which the counterparty may cancel <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>Capesize</dt><dd>a bulk carrier of about 180,000 dwt and up, too large for the Panama Canal, used mainly for iron ore and coal <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>carry market (contango)</dt><dd>a curve with later months above nearer ones, the market pays for storage <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>carry-in</dt><dd>stocks left over from the previous season, the starting point of a balance sheet <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>carryout</dt><dd>ending stocks, the desk's one-word name for what is left at the end of the marketing year <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>cents per bushel</dt><dd>Chicago grain quoting unit, 4.39 dollars per bushel is spoken four thirty-nine <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>CFR</dt><dd>cost and freight, the seller pays the voyage to a named destination but risk still passes at loading <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>charter party</dt><dd>the contract hiring the vessel, between charterer and shipowner <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>CIF</dt><dd>cost insurance and freight, CFR plus the seller buys the marine insurance the buyer would claim on <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>conversion cost</dt><dd>the variable cost of turning beans into products, gas, power, hexane, labour and maintenance, typically 35 to 50 cents a bushel at a modern plant <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>conversion factors</dt><dd>36.7 bushels per tonne for wheat and beans and 39.4 for corn, so cents per bushel times 0.367 or 0.394 gives dollars per tonne <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>CPO</dt><dd>crude palm oil, the unrefined oil pressed from the fruit of the oil palm and the benchmark grade traded internationally <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>Crop Production</dt><dd>the USDA report published alongside WASDE carrying the survey-based yield and area figures <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>cross-hedge</dt><dd>hedging with a contract that is not your grade or your origin, which removes flat price and adds correlation risk <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>crush capacity</dt><dd>installed daily processing volume, a physical constraint that cannot be expanded inside a marketing year <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>cwt</dt><dd>hundredweight, 100 lb, the quoting unit for US rice and cattle <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>cwt (hundredweight)</dt><dd>100 lb, the quoting unit for US rice <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>deadweight (dwt)</dt><dd>the total weight a vessel can carry including cargo, fuel, water, stores and crew, so always more than the cargo she can load <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>Dec over</dt><dd>spread quoting convention that names the expensive leg, December fifteen over means December is 15 cents above the other month <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>deferred</dt><dd>months or shipment windows further out <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>demand-to-supply ratio</dt><dd>the Baltic measure of tonne-mile demand growth against fleet growth, above 1.0 when cargo is outrunning ships <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>demurrage</dt><dd>the penalty owed when a vessel is held beyond the agreed laytime <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>despatch</dt><dd>the reward paid when loading beats laytime, customarily half the demurrage rate <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>differential</dt><dd>the premium or discount to a named futures month, as in November plus 80, the negotiated part of a physical quote <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>differential (basis)</dt><dd>the premium or discount to a named futures month, quoted as plus 80 or minus 20 <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>discretionary blending</dt><dd>blending vegetable oil into the fuel pool purely because it is cheaper than gasoil, with no mandate and no subsidy behind it <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>distillers grains</dt><dd>DDGS, the protein co-product of ethanol production, sold back into the feed market <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>done</dt><dd>the word that seals a trade <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>draft</dt><dd>the depth of hull below the waterline, which rises as the ship loads and is the hard physical limit on which berths and rivers a vessel can enter <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>draft survey</dt><dd>weighing a cargo by reading the ship's displacement before and after loading <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>draw area</dt><dd>the geographic catchment a crush plant buys its beans from, whose size sets how hard it must bid the local basis <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>durum</dt><dd>the pasta wheat, a separate species with its own thin market <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>ethanol grind</dt><dd>the rate at which ethanol plants consume corn, which slows when the plant margin turns negative and removes corn demand in steps <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>export levy</dt><dd>a tax charged on a commodity leaving the country, used in Indonesia both to discourage exports of crude palm oil and to fund the domestic blending subsidy <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>falling number</dt><dd>the sprout-damage test, a low number demotes milling wheat to feed wheat <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>FAME</dt><dd>fatty acid methyl ester, the chemical name for conventional biodiesel made by reacting a vegetable oil with methanol <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>FCPO</dt><dd>the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives crude palm oil futures contract, 25 tonnes per lot, quoted in Malaysian ringgit per tonne with a one ringgit tick <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>feed and residual</dt><dd>the inferred demand line that carries livestock feeding together with every measurement error in the rest of the sheet <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>feed floor</dt><dd>the price at which feed substitution demand appears under a grain, corn setting the floor under feed wheat <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>feed wheat</dt><dd>wheat sold on energy and protein rather than milling specification, priced relationally against corn rather than at a flat price <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>firm</dt><dd>a tradable quote that binds if accepted, often with a time limit <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>five percent more or less</dt><dd>the contractual tolerance on cargo size, exercised at the seller's option <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>fixing</dt><dd>agreeing the charter of a specific vessel, the moment a freight exposure stops being open <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>flat price</dt><dd>the full outright price level <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>flat price exposure</dt><dd>outright price risk, removed deliberately by hedging so only the basis remains <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>FOB</dt><dd>free on board, the cargo is priced at the load port with the buyer taking it from the ship's rail <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>forward freight agreement (FFA)</dt><dd>a cash-settled swap on a Baltic index route or basket over a calendar month, the only liquid way to hedge freight <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>front month</dt><dd>the nearest actively traded contract month, where liquidity is deepest <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>full carry</dt><dd>storage plus interest per month of holding grain, the practical ceiling on a carry spread <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>gasoil</dt><dd>the traded middle distillate that diesel prices off, and the reference against which discretionary blending economics are judged <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>geared vessel</dt><dd>a ship carrying its own cranes, which can therefore discharge at a berth with no shore equipment <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>Grain Stocks</dt><dd>the quarterly USDA survey of physical inventories, from which the feed and residual line is backed out <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>gross processing margin</dt><dd>the industry name for product value minus raw material cost, the crush stated as a margin <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>Handysize</dt><dd>the smallest mainstream dry bulk class at roughly 10,000 to 40,000 dwt, geared and able to work berths larger ships cannot reach <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>hard red spring (HRS)</dt><dd>the 13.5 percent plus Minneapolis wheat bought to lift the protein of a grist <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>hard red winter (HRW)</dt><dd>the 11 to 12.5 percent bread wheat priced at Kansas City, the US wheat that competes with the Black Sea <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>harvested acres</dt><dd>area actually cut for grain, roughly 8 million acres below planted for US corn, and the denominator that yield is quoted against <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>hexane</dt><dd>the solvent used to extract the last of the oil from the flaked bean, and a real line in the conversion cost <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>hit</dt><dd>your bid was taken by a seller <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>hit the bid</dt><dd>to sell into someone else's bid <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>implied disappearance</dt><dd>use derived by subtraction rather than by measurement, the technique that produces the residual lines of a balance sheet <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>inclusion rate</dt><dd>the share of a single ingredient in a feed ration, capped by nutrition and by anti-nutritional factors <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>Incoterms</dt><dd>the standard three-letter trade terms that allocate cost and risk between buyer and seller <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>indication</dt><dd>a guide price that is not firm <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>initial margin</dt><dd>the deposit the clearing house takes per lot when a position is opened <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>inter-exchange spread</dt><dd>the price gap between two exchanges pricing related but different goods, such as Kansas City over Chicago <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>inverse (backwardation)</dt><dd>a curve with nearer months above later ones, the market pays a premium for immediate delivery <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>joint product</dt><dd>two outputs produced in fixed proportion from one input, so that neither can be made without the other <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>kilolitre</dt><dd>one thousand litres, the volume unit Asian governments state biofuel mandates in, converted to tonnes using the fuel's density of about 0.88 t per cubic metre for biodiesel <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>laycan</dt><dd>the window during which a vessel may present for loading <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>laytime</dt><dd>the contractually allowed time to load or discharge before demurrage begins <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>lift the offer</dt><dd>to buy from someone else's offer <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>lifted</dt><dd>your offer was taken by a buyer <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>limit move</dt><dd>an exchange-set maximum daily price change, trading pauses beyond it <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>line-up</dt><dd>the queue of vessels waiting to load at a port, a key driver of origin basis <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>lot</dt><dd>one futures contract, 5,000 bushels for Chicago grains, the unit desks count positions in <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>marketing year</dt><dd>the accounting year a crop is measured in, September to August for US corn and soybeans and June to May for US wheat <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>Matif milling wheat (EBM)</dt><dd>the Paris contract, 50 tonnes a lot quoted in euros per tonne and delivered into Rouen and Dunkirk <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>meal contract</dt><dd>CBOT soybean meal, 100 short tons, quoted in dollars per short ton <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>metric tonne</dt><dd>2,204.6 lb, the grain trading weight unit outside the US <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>month codes</dt><dd>F G H J K M N Q U V X Z for January through December, the Z is December <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>NASS</dt><dd>USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service, the body running the surveys behind the published numbers <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>new crop</dt><dd>the marketing year about to begin, priced by the contract months that follow the coming harvest <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>nomination</dt><dd>formally naming the performing vessel under a cargo contract <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>NOPA</dt><dd>the National Oilseed Processors Association, whose monthly published crush figure makes US soybean crush a measured line rather than an inferred one <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>notice of readiness (NOR)</dt><dd>the master's formal declaration that the vessel has arrived and is ready, it starts the laytime clock <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>offer</dt><dd>the price a seller will accept <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>oil contract</dt><dd>CBOT soybean oil, 60,000 pounds, quoted in cents per pound <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>oil share</dt><dd>soybean oil's percentage of the combined value of the meal and oil produced from one bushel <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>oil share trade</dt><dd>long soybean oil against short soybean meal, the clean expression of a view on a fuel policy because it isolates relative product value from the bean basis <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>old crop</dt><dd>the marketing year now ending, priced by the contract months before the new harvest arrives <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>olein and stearin</dt><dd>the liquid and solid fractions palm separates into when refined, sold into cooking oil and into fats respectively <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>P7 and P8</dt><dd>Baltic Panamax route codes for US Gulf to Qingdao and Santos to Qingdao, the two assessments that set the soybean origin arb <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>Panamax and Kamsarmax</dt><dd>the 75,000 to 82,000 dwt workhorse of the grain and coal trades, usually gearless and drawing about fourteen metres fully loaded <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>paper</dt><dd>exchange futures and options, used by a physical desk to hedge rather than to speculate <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>part cargo</dt><dd>loading a vessel below capacity because the berth, river or canal cannot take her full draft <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>physical (cash)</dt><dd>real cargoes under contract with specs and load windows, as opposed to paper <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>plant crush</dt><dd>what a physical plant actually earns, the board crush adjusted for bean, meal and oil basis and net of conversion cost <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>planted acres</dt><dd>area sown, the number that moves on farmer decisions and USDA area surveys <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>point</dt><dd>one hundredth of a cent per pound, how softs desks count moves <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>point (softs)</dt><dd>one hundredth of a cent per pound, so up 300 points means up 3 cents <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>pollination</dt><dd>the roughly one-week corn window in mid-July in the northern hemisphere after which the ear count is fixed and no forecast can change it <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>price assessment</dt><dd>a published daily price built by surveying brokers and exporters, used where no futures contract exists <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>prompt</dt><dd>the nearby month or shipment window, ready to move now <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>protein spec</dt><dd>the contractual protein percentage that turns the word wheat into a price <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>putting on the crush</dt><dd>buying bean futures and selling meal and oil futures against them in a 10-11-9 lot ratio, which fixes the processing margin <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>quality basis</dt><dd>the spread between the grade you own and the grade the futures contract delivers <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>ration</dt><dd>the formulated feed mix a mill grinds, in which every ingredient carries an inclusion limit and a substitution price against the others <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>renewable diesel</dt><dd>hydrotreated vegetable oil or HVO, a drop-in diesel chemically identical to fossil diesel and not limited by a blend wall, unlike FAME <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>residual</dt><dd>a figure obtained by subtraction, such as ending stocks, which absorbs any error in the larger numbers almost in full <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>reverse crush</dt><dd>the opposite position, short beans and long products, used when a processor expects to idle capacity rather than run it <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>RFS</dt><dd>the US Renewable Fuel Standard, the rule that sets annual minimum volumes of renewable fuel that must be blended into American transport fuel <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>RIN</dt><dd>renewable identification number, the tradable compliance certificate generated with each gallon of renewable fuel, at 1.5 RINs per gallon of biodiesel, which is why a mandate volume must be checked for basis before it is multiplied by a feedstock factor <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>river-sea vessel</dt><dd>a small shallow-draft ship built to work both inland waterways and short sea legs, the only class able to load in the Sea of Azov <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>roll</dt><dd>closing a hedge in one month and reopening it further out, executed as a spread trade <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>run rate</dt><dd>the share of installed capacity a plant is actually operating at, the lever a crusher pulls when margins move <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>RVO</dt><dd>renewable volume obligation, the share of the national mandate assigned to an individual refiner or importer <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>safrinha</dt><dd>Brazil's second corn crop, planted February to March into soybean stubble and pollinating April to May, about three quarters of Brazilian corn production <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>short ton</dt><dd>2,000 lb, used by US soybean meal, about 10 percent lighter than a metric tonne <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>soft red winter (SRW)</dt><dd>the low-protein soft wheat the Chicago contract delivers, used for cakes biscuits and crackers <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>space time form</dt><dd>the three transformations a merchant is paid for, geography, storage and processing <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>standing bid</dt><dd>demand that is present regardless of price because it is created by legal obligation rather than by choice <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>statement of facts</dt><dd>the port log of events both sides use to fight laytime claims <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>stocks-to-use</dt><dd>ending stocks divided by total use, the market's tension gauge <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>substitution spread</dt><dd>the price gap between two competing vegetable oils, which sets the point at which a refiner reformulates from one to the other <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>Supramax</dt><dd>a dry bulk vessel of roughly 50,000 to 60,000 dwt, normally carrying its own cranes, working minor bulks and shorter legs <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>test weight</dt><dd>the density measure telling a miller how much flour comes out of a tonne <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>tick</dt><dd>smallest price increment, a quarter cent per bushel in Chicago grains, worth 12.50 dollars per lot <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>ticker</dt><dd>the short screen code a contract is spoken by, ZW wheat, ZC corn, ZS soybeans, ZM meal, ZL oil, KC coffee, SB sugar, CT cotton <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>time charter</dt><dd>hiring the vessel itself for a period at a price in dollars per day, with the charterer taking speed, weather, port delay and usually fuel <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>time charter equivalent (TCE)</dt><dd>a voyage's economics restated as dollars per day, which is how a shipowner compares one employment against another <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>total supply</dt><dd>carry-in plus production plus imports, the top block of a balance sheet <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>total use</dt><dd>domestic use plus exports, the bottom block of a balance sheet <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>trade average</dt><dd>the published mean of analysts' pre-report estimates, and therefore the expectation already contained in the price <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>trend yield</dt><dd>the yield a crop would produce on normal weather, the baseline against which a weather premium is measured <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>variation margin</dt><dd>the daily cash settlement of a position mark to market, paid the same day <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>voyage charter</dt><dd>hiring a vessel to move a stated cargo between named ports for a price in dollars per tonne, with the owner carrying the voyage and delay risk <span class="gep now">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>war-risk premium</dt><dd>an insurance surcharge on a vessel's hull value for sailing into a conflict zone, quoted as a percentage <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>WASDE</dt><dd>the USDA monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>washed out</dt><dd>offsetting trades cancel each other and only the price difference is settled <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>washout</dt><dd>cancelling two offsetting physical contracts by settling the price difference instead of shipping <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>weather premium</dt><dd>the gap between where a crop trades and where it would trade at trend yield, the price of a distribution of outcomes rather than of a forecast <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>weather working day</dt><dd>a laytime day that counts only when weather permits cargo work <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>whisper number</dt><dd>the expectation the market is actually trading into a report, which can sit away from the published trade average <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>work</dt><dd>leave an order resting with a broker <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>work an order</dt><dd>leave an order resting at your price and wait <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>workable</dt><dd>the quoted price is negotiable <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div></dl><p class="gnone" hidden>No term matches that.</p></div></details></section>
|
|
626
|
-
</main>
|
|
627
|
-
<nav class="epnav" aria-label="Episodes">
|
|
628
|
-
<a class="epprev" href="ep09.html"><span class="dir">← Previous</span><span class="ept">Vegetable oils and biofuels</span><span class="epn">Episode 9</span></a>
|
|
629
|
-
<a class="epnext" href="ep11.html"><span class="dir">Next →</span><span class="ept">Storage, Elevation and Trade Flows</span><span class="epn">Episode 11</span></a>
|
|
630
|
-
</nav>
|
|
631
|
-
<details class="archive"><summary>All episodes<span class="sl">19 so far</span></summary><ol class="arclist"><li><a href="ep01.html"><b>01</b> The Units and the Language of the Desk</a></li><li><a href="ep02.html"><b>02</b> What a Merchant Does, and Why Basis Is the Whole Game</a></li><li><a href="ep03.html"><b>03</b> Futures Plumbing and the Shape of the Curve</a></li><li><a href="ep04.html"><b>04</b> The Physical Chain, End to End</a></li><li><a href="ep05.html"><b>05</b> Wheat: The Map and the Screens</a></li><li><a href="ep06.html"><b>06</b> Corn, Crop Calendars and Weather Risk</a></li><li><a href="ep07.html"><b>07</b> WASDE and Building a Balance Sheet</a></li><li><a href="ep08.html"><b>08</b> The Soybean Complex and the Crush</a></li><li><a href="ep09.html"><b>09</b> Vegetable oils and biofuels</a></li><li class="here" aria-current="page"><a href="ep10.html"><b>10</b> Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering</a></li><li><a href="ep11.html"><b>11</b> Storage, Elevation and Trade Flows</a></li><li><a href="ep12.html"><b>12</b> Coffee: The Market</a></li><li><a href="ep13.html"><b>13</b> Coffee: Differentials, PTBF and Volatility</a></li><li><a href="ep14.html"><b>14</b> Sugar: Two Contracts, the Switch and the Refiner</a></li><li><a href="ep15.html"><b>15</b> Cotton, Rice and Juice</a></li><li><a href="ep16.html"><b>16</b> Spreads: Calendar, Inter-Commodity, Inter-Exchange</a></li><li><a href="ep17.html"><b>17</b> Options: The Fence, the Vol Crush and the Wing You Sold</a></li><li><a href="ep18.html"><b>18</b> EFP, Delivery and the Squeeze</a></li><li><a href="ep19.html"><b>19</b> Basis Deep Dive and Origination</a></li></ol></details>
|
|
632
|
-
<footer>
|
|
633
|
-
<span class="sig"><b>Soft Commodity Trading</b> — a daily briefing on physical commodity trading.</span>
|
|
634
|
-
<span><a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/index.html">All episodes</a> · <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/feed.xml">RSS</a></span>
|
|
635
|
-
</footer>
|
|
636
|
-
</div>
|
|
637
|
-
<script>
|
|
638
|
-
(function(){
|
|
639
|
-
var doc = document.documentElement;
|
|
640
|
-
|
|
641
|
-
/* theme */
|
|
642
|
-
var btn = document.querySelector('.themebtn');
|
|
643
|
-
if(btn) btn.addEventListener('click', function(){
|
|
644
|
-
var next = doc.getAttribute('data-theme') === 'dark' ? 'light' : 'dark';
|
|
645
|
-
doc.setAttribute('data-theme', next);
|
|
646
|
-
try{ localStorage.setItem('cdd-theme', next); }catch(e){}
|
|
647
|
-
});
|
|
648
|
-
|
|
649
|
-
/* reading progress */
|
|
650
|
-
var bar = document.getElementById('bar'), ticking = false;
|
|
651
|
-
function progress(){
|
|
652
|
-
var h = doc.scrollHeight - innerHeight;
|
|
653
|
-
bar.style.width = (h > 0 ? Math.min(100, Math.max(0, scrollY / h * 100)) : 0) + '%';
|
|
654
|
-
ticking = false;
|
|
655
|
-
}
|
|
656
|
-
if(bar){
|
|
657
|
-
addEventListener('scroll', function(){
|
|
658
|
-
if(!ticking){ ticking = true; requestAnimationFrame(progress); }
|
|
659
|
-
}, {passive:true});
|
|
660
|
-
addEventListener('resize', progress, {passive:true});
|
|
661
|
-
progress();
|
|
662
|
-
}
|
|
663
|
-
|
|
664
|
-
/* contents: mark the section being read */
|
|
665
|
-
var links = [].slice.call(document.querySelectorAll('.toc a'));
|
|
666
|
-
if(links.length && 'IntersectionObserver' in window){
|
|
667
|
-
var map = {};
|
|
668
|
-
links.forEach(function(a){
|
|
669
|
-
var el = document.getElementById(decodeURIComponent(a.hash.slice(1)));
|
|
670
|
-
if(el) map[el.id] = a.parentNode;
|
|
671
|
-
});
|
|
672
|
-
var seen = [];
|
|
673
|
-
var io = new IntersectionObserver(function(entries){
|
|
674
|
-
entries.forEach(function(en){
|
|
675
|
-
var id = en.target.id, at = seen.indexOf(id);
|
|
676
|
-
if(en.isIntersecting){ if(at < 0) seen.push(id); }
|
|
677
|
-
else if(at >= 0){ seen.splice(at, 1); }
|
|
678
|
-
});
|
|
679
|
-
links.forEach(function(a){ a.parentNode.classList.remove('on'); });
|
|
680
|
-
if(seen.length && map[seen[0]]) map[seen[0]].classList.add('on');
|
|
681
|
-
}, {rootMargin:'-64px 0px -70% 0px'});
|
|
682
|
-
Object.keys(map).forEach(function(id){
|
|
683
|
-
var el = document.getElementById(id); if(el) io.observe(el);
|
|
684
|
-
});
|
|
685
|
-
}
|
|
686
|
-
|
|
687
|
-
/* playback speed */
|
|
688
|
-
var audio = document.querySelector('audio');
|
|
689
|
-
[].forEach.call(document.querySelectorAll('.rate'), function(b){
|
|
690
|
-
b.addEventListener('click', function(){
|
|
691
|
-
if(!audio) return;
|
|
692
|
-
audio.playbackRate = parseFloat(b.dataset.rate);
|
|
693
|
-
[].forEach.call(document.querySelectorAll('.rate'), function(o){
|
|
694
|
-
o.setAttribute('aria-pressed', String(o === b));
|
|
695
|
-
});
|
|
696
|
-
});
|
|
697
|
-
});
|
|
698
|
-
|
|
699
|
-
/* offline: keep a copy of this page through the folder's service worker */
|
|
700
|
-
var offBtn = document.getElementById('offline'), offNote = document.getElementById('offnote');
|
|
701
|
-
if(offBtn && 'serviceWorker' in navigator && 'caches' in window &&
|
|
702
|
-
(location.protocol === 'https:' || location.hostname === 'localhost')){
|
|
703
|
-
var CACHE = 'sct-offline-v1';
|
|
704
|
-
var pageKey = location.origin + location.pathname;
|
|
705
|
-
navigator.serviceWorker.register('sw.js').catch(function(){});
|
|
706
|
-
offBtn.hidden = false;
|
|
707
|
-
function note(t){ if(offNote){ offNote.textContent = t; offNote.hidden = !t; } }
|
|
708
|
-
function markSaved(){
|
|
709
|
-
offBtn.classList.add('saved'); offBtn.textContent = 'Saved offline ✓';
|
|
710
|
-
offBtn.disabled = false;
|
|
711
|
-
note('This page opens without a connection at this address. Tap again to remove the copy.');
|
|
712
|
-
}
|
|
713
|
-
caches.open(CACHE).then(function(c){ return c.match(pageKey); }).then(function(hit){
|
|
714
|
-
if(hit) markSaved();
|
|
715
|
-
}).catch(function(){});
|
|
716
|
-
offBtn.addEventListener('click', function(){
|
|
717
|
-
if(offBtn.classList.contains('saved')){
|
|
718
|
-
caches.open(CACHE).then(function(c){ return c.delete(pageKey); }).then(function(){
|
|
719
|
-
offBtn.classList.remove('saved'); offBtn.textContent = 'Save offline'; note('');
|
|
720
|
-
});
|
|
721
|
-
return;
|
|
722
|
-
}
|
|
723
|
-
offBtn.disabled = true; offBtn.textContent = 'Saving…';
|
|
724
|
-
caches.open(CACHE).then(function(c){
|
|
725
|
-
return fetch(pageKey, {cache:'reload'}).then(function(r){
|
|
726
|
-
if(!r.ok) throw new Error('page'); return c.put(pageKey, r);
|
|
727
|
-
});
|
|
728
|
-
}).then(markSaved).catch(function(){
|
|
729
|
-
offBtn.disabled = false; offBtn.textContent = 'Save offline';
|
|
730
|
-
note('Could not save here. Use Share → Add to Reading List instead.');
|
|
731
|
-
});
|
|
732
|
-
});
|
|
733
|
-
}
|
|
734
|
-
|
|
735
|
-
/* solutions: reveal all / hide all */
|
|
736
|
-
[].forEach.call(document.querySelectorAll('[data-solnall]'), function(b){
|
|
737
|
-
b.addEventListener('click', function(){
|
|
738
|
-
var open = b.dataset.solnall === 'open';
|
|
739
|
-
[].forEach.call(document.querySelectorAll('details.soln'), function(d){
|
|
740
|
-
d.open = open;
|
|
741
|
-
});
|
|
742
|
-
});
|
|
743
|
-
});
|
|
744
|
-
|
|
745
|
-
/* an answer linked to directly should already be open */
|
|
746
|
-
function openTarget(){
|
|
747
|
-
var id = location.hash.slice(1);
|
|
748
|
-
if(!id) return;
|
|
749
|
-
var el = document.getElementById(decodeURIComponent(id));
|
|
750
|
-
while(el){
|
|
751
|
-
if(el.tagName === 'DETAILS') el.open = true;
|
|
752
|
-
el = el.parentElement;
|
|
753
|
-
}
|
|
754
|
-
}
|
|
755
|
-
addEventListener('hashchange', openTarget); openTarget();
|
|
756
|
-
|
|
757
|
-
/* glossary: an episode chip and a search box, which compose */
|
|
758
|
-
var gf = document.getElementById('gfilter'), list = document.getElementById('glist');
|
|
759
|
-
if(list){
|
|
760
|
-
var rows = [].slice.call(list.querySelectorAll('.gterm'));
|
|
761
|
-
var chips = [].slice.call(document.querySelectorAll('.gchip'));
|
|
762
|
-
var none = document.querySelector('.gnone');
|
|
763
|
-
var pick = 'all';
|
|
764
|
-
function apply(){
|
|
765
|
-
var q = gf ? gf.value.trim().toLowerCase() : '', hits = 0;
|
|
766
|
-
rows.forEach(function(r){
|
|
767
|
-
var on = (pick === 'all' || r.dataset.ep === pick) &&
|
|
768
|
-
(!q || r.textContent.toLowerCase().indexOf(q) > -1);
|
|
769
|
-
r.hidden = !on; if(on) hits++;
|
|
770
|
-
});
|
|
771
|
-
if(none) none.hidden = hits > 0;
|
|
772
|
-
}
|
|
773
|
-
if(gf) gf.addEventListener('input', apply);
|
|
774
|
-
chips.forEach(function(c){
|
|
775
|
-
c.addEventListener('click', function(){
|
|
776
|
-
pick = c.dataset.gep;
|
|
777
|
-
chips.forEach(function(o){ o.classList.toggle('on', o === c); });
|
|
778
|
-
apply();
|
|
779
|
-
});
|
|
780
|
-
});
|
|
781
|
-
}
|
|
782
|
-
|
|
783
|
-
/* printing: paper has no disclosure triangles */
|
|
784
|
-
var reopen = [];
|
|
785
|
-
addEventListener('beforeprint', function(){
|
|
786
|
-
reopen = [].filter.call(document.querySelectorAll('details'), function(d){
|
|
787
|
-
return !d.open;
|
|
788
|
-
});
|
|
789
|
-
reopen.forEach(function(d){ d.open = true; });
|
|
790
|
-
});
|
|
791
|
-
addEventListener('afterprint', function(){
|
|
792
|
-
reopen.forEach(function(d){ d.open = false; });
|
|
793
|
-
reopen = [];
|
|
794
|
-
});
|
|
795
|
-
})();
|
|
796
|
-
</script>
|
|
797
|
-
</body>
|
|
798
|
-
</html>
|