@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.46 → 1.0.47
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/ep15.html +716 -0
- package/ep15_chart1.png +0 -0
- package/ep15_chart2.png +0 -0
- package/ep15_chart3.png +0 -0
- package/package.json +1 -1
package/ep15.html
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="en" data-theme="light">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
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<title>Ep 15 — Cotton, Rice and Juice · Soft Commodity Trading</title>
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<meta name="description" content="A cotton mill that has taken delivery but not set a price is short the board without owning a single contract, and the CFTC publishes exactly how much of that unfixed buying is still to come.">
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<meta name="author" content="Sébastien Delsad">
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<link rel="canonical" href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep15.html">
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<meta property="og:type" content="article">
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<meta property="og:site_name" content="Soft Commodity Trading">
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<meta property="og:title" content="Ep 15 — Cotton, Rice and Juice">
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<meta property="og:description" content="A cotton mill that has taken delivery but not set a price is short the board without owning a single contract, and the CFTC publishes exactly how much of that unfixed buying is still to come.">
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<meta property="og:url" content="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep15.html">
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<meta property="og:image" content="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily@1.0.15/cover.jpg">
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<meta property="og:image:alt" content="Soft Commodity Trading cover art">
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<meta property="og:audio" content="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep15.mp3">
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<meta property="og:audio:type" content="audio/mpeg">
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<meta property="article:published_time" content="2026-09-04">
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<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
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<meta name="twitter:title" content="Ep 15 — Cotton, Rice and Juice">
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<meta name="twitter:description" content="A cotton mill that has taken delivery but not set a price is short the board without owning a single contract, and the CFTC publishes exactly how much of that unfixed buying is still to come.">
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<meta name="twitter:image" content="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily@1.0.15/cover.jpg">
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<meta name="theme-color" content="#faf7f1" media="(prefers-color-scheme: light)">
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<meta name="theme-color" content="#14110e" media="(prefers-color-scheme: dark)">
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<link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Soft Commodity Trading" href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/feed.xml">
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<link rel="icon" href="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' viewBox='0 0 64 64'%3E%3Crect width='64' height='64' rx='12' fill='%231d4032'/%3E%3Ctext x='32' y='44' font-family='Georgia,serif' font-size='34' fill='%23c9a45c' text-anchor='middle'%3ES%3C/text%3E%3C/svg%3E">
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<script type="application/ld+json">
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{
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"@context": "https://schema.org",
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"@type": "PodcastEpisode",
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"url": "https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep15.html",
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"name": "Ep 15 — Cotton, Rice and Juice",
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"episodeNumber": 15,
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"duration": "PT13M35S",
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"description": "A cotton mill that has taken delivery but not set a price is short the board without owning a single contract, and the CFTC publishes exactly how much of that unfixed buying is still to come.",
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"image": "https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily@1.0.15/cover.jpg",
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"inLanguage": "en",
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"author": {
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"@type": "Person",
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"name": "Sébastien Delsad"
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},
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"associatedMedia": {
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"@type": "MediaObject",
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"contentUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep15.mp3",
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"encodingFormat": "audio/mpeg"
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},
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"partOfSeries": {
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"@type": "PodcastSeries",
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"name": "Soft Commodity Trading",
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"url": "https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/index.html",
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"image": "https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily@1.0.15/cover.jpg",
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"webFeed": "https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/feed.xml"
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},
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"datePublished": "2026-09-04"
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}
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</script>
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<style>
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:root{
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--ink:#16110c; --ink-soft:#4a4238; --line:#e3ddd2; --paper:#faf7f1;
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--accent:#1d4032; --gold:#a8813c; --spoiler:#8a2f2f;
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--tint:rgba(128,110,70,.07); --tint-2:rgba(128,110,70,.045);
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--up:#215c44; --down:#8a2f2f; --shadow:rgba(22,17,12,.14);
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--sans:ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,"Segoe UI",Roboto,sans-serif;
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--serif:Georgia,"Iowan Old Style","Times New Roman",serif;
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--col:680px;
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}
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html[data-theme="dark"]{
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--ink:#ece6dc; --ink-soft:#a49c90; --line:#2f2a24; --paper:#14110e;
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--accent:#7fae95; --gold:#c9a45c; --spoiler:#d98a8a;
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--tint:rgba(200,180,130,.06); --tint-2:rgba(200,180,130,.035);
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--up:#7fae95; --down:#d98a8a; --shadow:rgba(0,0,0,.55);
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color-scheme:dark;
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}
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*{box-sizing:border-box}
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html{scroll-behavior:smooth;scroll-padding-top:64px}
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html,body{transition:background-color .25s ease,color .25s ease}
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body{margin:0;background:var(--paper);color:var(--ink);
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font:18px/1.72 var(--serif);-webkit-font-smoothing:antialiased;
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text-rendering:optimizeLegibility}
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.wrap{max-width:var(--col);margin:0 auto;padding:0 24px 40px}
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.vh{position:absolute;width:1px;height:1px;overflow:hidden;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);
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white-space:nowrap}
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/* ---------- reading progress ---------- */
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#bar{position:fixed;top:0;left:0;height:2px;width:0;z-index:30;
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background:var(--gold);transition:width .12s linear}
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/* ---------- masthead ---------- */
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header{padding:52px 0 30px}
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.masthead{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:baseline;gap:16px;
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padding-bottom:12px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--ink);
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font:600 13px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.13em;text-transform:uppercase}
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.masthead a{color:inherit;text-decoration:none}
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.masthead .epno{color:var(--gold);letter-spacing:.1em}
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h1{font-size:clamp(31px,5.6vw,44px);line-height:1.12;margin:26px 0 0;
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letter-spacing:-.017em;font-weight:400;text-wrap:balance}
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.dek{color:var(--ink-soft);font-size:20px;line-height:1.5;margin:16px 0 0;
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max-width:34em;text-wrap:pretty}
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.meta{margin-top:22px;font:12.5px/1.6 var(--sans);color:var(--ink-soft);
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letter-spacing:.05em;text-transform:uppercase}
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.meta b{font-weight:600;color:var(--ink)}
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/* ---------- listen ---------- */
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.listen{margin-top:26px;border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:12px;
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background:var(--tint-2);padding:16px 18px 14px}
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audio{width:100%;height:38px;display:block}
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.listenrow{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:8px 16px;align-items:center;
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margin-top:12px;font:12.5px/1 var(--sans);color:var(--ink-soft)}
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.listenrow a{color:var(--ink-soft);text-decoration:none;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line)}
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.listenrow a:hover{color:var(--accent);border-color:var(--accent)}
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.rates{display:flex;gap:6px;margin-right:auto}
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.rate{background:none;border:1px solid var(--line);color:var(--ink-soft);
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border-radius:99px;padding:4px 10px;cursor:pointer;
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font:600 11.5px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.04em;transition:all .2s}
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.rate:hover{border-color:var(--gold);color:var(--ink)}
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.rate[aria-pressed="true"]{background:var(--ink);color:var(--paper);border-color:var(--ink)}
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/* ---------- contents ---------- */
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.toc{margin:34px 0 6px;padding:16px 0 4px;border-top:1px solid var(--line);
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border-bottom:1px solid var(--line)}
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.tochead{font:600 11px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.18em;text-transform:uppercase;
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color:var(--gold);margin:0 0 12px}
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.toc ol{list-style:none;margin:0 0 12px;padding:0;
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font:14.5px/1.5 var(--sans);columns:2;column-gap:26px}
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.toc li{margin:0 0 7px;break-inside:avoid}
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.toc li.t3{padding-left:12px;font-size:13.5px}
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.toc a{color:var(--ink-soft);text-decoration:none;border-bottom:1px solid transparent}
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.toc a:hover{color:var(--ink);border-color:var(--gold)}
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.toc li.on>a{color:var(--ink);font-weight:600}
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/* ---------- body ---------- */
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main{padding-top:8px}
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h2{font:400 27px/1.25 var(--serif);color:var(--gold);margin:56px 0 18px;
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font-variant-caps:all-small-caps;letter-spacing:.045em;
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padding-bottom:9px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line)}
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h3{font-size:23px;line-height:1.3;margin:38px 0 10px;letter-spacing:-.012em;
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font-weight:400}
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h4{font:600 17px/1.4 var(--sans);margin:26px 0 6px;letter-spacing:-.005em}
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p{margin:0 0 18px}
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h2+p,h3+p,h4+p{margin-top:0}
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ul,ol{margin:0 0 18px;padding-left:24px}
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li{margin:0 0 9px}
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li::marker{color:var(--gold)}
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strong{font-weight:700}
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a{color:var(--accent);text-underline-offset:2px;text-decoration-thickness:1px}
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.anchor{float:right;margin-left:12px;color:var(--line);text-decoration:none;
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font:400 16px/1 var(--sans);opacity:0;transition:opacity .2s}
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h2:hover .anchor,h3:hover .anchor,.anchor:focus{opacity:1;color:var(--gold)}
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code{background:var(--tint);padding:1px 5px;border-radius:3px;
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font:15px/1 ui-monospace,Menlo,Consolas,monospace}
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blockquote{border-left:2px solid var(--gold);margin:26px 0;padding:6px 0 6px 20px;
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font-style:italic;color:var(--ink-soft);font-size:17.5px}
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blockquote strong{font-style:normal;color:var(--ink);font-weight:600}
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hr{border:none;border-top:1px solid var(--line);margin:40px 0}
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.charterr{color:var(--spoiler);font:14px/1.5 var(--sans)}
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/* ---------- tables ---------- */
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.tablewrap{margin:26px 0;overflow-x:auto;overscroll-behavior-x:contain;
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background:
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linear-gradient(to right,var(--paper) 34%,rgba(255,255,255,0)) left center,
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linear-gradient(to left,var(--paper) 34%,rgba(255,255,255,0)) right center,
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radial-gradient(farthest-side at 0 50%,var(--shadow),rgba(255,255,255,0)) left center,
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radial-gradient(farthest-side at 100% 50%,var(--shadow),rgba(255,255,255,0)) right center;
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background-repeat:no-repeat;
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background-size:44px 100%,44px 100%,13px 100%,13px 100%;
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background-attachment:local,local,scroll,scroll}
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.tablewrap:focus-visible{outline:2px solid var(--gold);outline-offset:3px}
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table{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;font:15.5px/1.5 var(--sans);
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font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums lining-nums}
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th{text-align:left;font-size:11.5px;letter-spacing:.1em;text-transform:uppercase;
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color:var(--ink-soft);border-bottom:1px solid var(--ink);padding:0 14px 9px 0;
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font-weight:600;white-space:nowrap}
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td{padding:10px 14px 10px 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line);vertical-align:top}
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th:last-child,td:last-child{padding-right:0}
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th.num,td.num{text-align:right;white-space:nowrap}
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tbody tr:last-child td{border-bottom:none}
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tr td:first-child{font-weight:600;padding-right:20px;min-width:9em}
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.mv{font-weight:600;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
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.mv.up{color:var(--up)} .mv.down{color:var(--down)} .mv.flat{color:var(--ink-soft)}
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/* ---------- quiz and solutions ---------- */
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.qq{scroll-margin-top:70px}
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.solnbar{display:flex;gap:8px;margin:0 0 16px}
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.ghost{background:none;border:1px solid var(--line);color:var(--ink-soft);
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border-radius:99px;padding:6px 14px;cursor:pointer;
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font:600 11.5px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase;
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transition:all .2s}
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.ghost:hover{border-color:var(--gold);color:var(--ink)}
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details.soln{margin:0 0 10px;scroll-margin-top:70px}
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details.soln>summary{cursor:pointer;list-style:none;display:flex;align-items:center;
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gap:12px;border:1px solid var(--line);border-left:3px solid var(--spoiler);
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border-radius:7px;padding:11px 16px;transition:all .2s;background:var(--tint-2)}
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summary::-webkit-details-marker{display:none}
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details.soln>summary:hover{border-color:var(--spoiler);background:var(--tint)}
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.qn{font:700 13px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.08em;color:var(--spoiler);
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text-transform:uppercase}
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.sl{font:500 12.5px/1 var(--sans);color:var(--ink-soft);letter-spacing:.05em}
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details[open]>summary .sl{opacity:.6}
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.solnbody{border-left:2px solid var(--accent);margin:14px 0 22px 3px;
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padding:2px 0 2px 20px;font-size:17.5px}
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.backq{font:12.5px/1 var(--sans);margin:0}
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.backq a{color:var(--ink-soft);text-decoration:none}
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.backq a:hover{color:var(--accent)}
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/* ---------- glossary ---------- */
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details.gloss>summary,details.archive>summary{cursor:pointer;list-style:none;
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display:flex;align-items:baseline;justify-content:space-between;gap:14px;
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border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:8px;padding:13px 18px;
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font:600 14px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.03em;transition:all .2s;
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background:var(--tint-2)}
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details.gloss>summary:hover,details.archive>summary:hover{border-color:var(--gold)}
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<a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/index.html">Soft Commodity Trading</a>
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<span class="epno">Ep 15</span>
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<h1>Cotton, Rice and Juice</h1>
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<p class="dek">A cotton mill that has taken delivery but not set a price is short the board without owning a single contract, and the CFTC publishes exactly how much of that unfixed buying is still to come.</p>
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<div class="meta">Friday 4 September 2026 · <b>13 min 35</b></div>
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<a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep15.mp3" download>Download</a>
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<nav class="toc" id="toc" aria-label="Contents"><p class="tochead">Contents</p><ol><li class="t2"><a href="#market-pulse">Market pulse</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#key-takeaways">Key takeaways</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#vocabulary">Vocabulary</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#quiz">Quiz</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#solutions">Solutions</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#the-episode-in-writing">The episode, in writing</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#the-contract-and-the-unit-under-it">The contract, and the unit under it</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#on-call-the-report-nobody-else-gets">On call: the report nobody else gets</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#why-it-becomes-a-squeeze">Why it becomes a squeeze</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#the-month-is-the-trade">The month is the trade</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#thin-is-not-small">Thin is not small</a></li><li class="t3"><a href="#two-different-kinds-of-thin">Two different kinds of thin</a></li><li class="t2"><a href="#glossary">Glossary</a></li></ol></nav>
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<h2 id="market-pulse">Market pulse<a class="anchor" href="#market-pulse" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2>
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<p><strong>Cotton gave back two and a half cents, and it was the biggest move on the board.</strong></p>
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<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th>Market</th><th>Contract</th><th>Settle</th><th class="num">Change</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Cotton No. 2</td><td>Dec 26</td><td>86.45 ¢/lb</td><td class="num"><span class="mv down">−248 pts</span></td></tr><tr><td>Chicago wheat</td><td>Dec 26</td><td>754¼ ¢/bu</td><td class="num"><span class="mv down">−19¾¢</span></td></tr><tr><td>Soybean oil</td><td>Oct 26</td><td>69.63 ¢/lb</td><td class="num"><span class="mv down">−101 pts</span></td></tr><tr><td>Corn</td><td>Dec 26</td><td>540¾ ¢/bu</td><td class="num"><span class="mv down">−2¾¢</span></td></tr><tr><td>Rough rice</td><td>Nov 26</td><td>$15.70 /cwt</td><td class="num"><span class="mv down">−2½¢</span></td></tr><tr><td>Soybeans</td><td>Nov 26</td><td>1316¼ ¢/bu</td><td class="num"><span class="mv up">+6¢</span></td></tr><tr><td>Soybean meal</td><td>Oct 26</td><td>$348.60 /st</td><td class="num"><span class="mv up">+$5.70</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
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<p>Thursday was a soft session with one sharp exception. December cotton settled at 86.45, down 248 points — a point being one hundredth of a cent, so two and a half cents came off the board in a day. Chicago wheat lost nearly twenty cents, or 2.6 percent. Beans and meal were the only things higher.</p>
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<p>Cotton had climbed through August. Late in the month the December contract printed a fresh contract high near 89.45, on a US crop rated 38 percent good against 55 percent a year earlier, and on world ending stocks forecast at the lowest since 2011/12. Thursday's break undid roughly a third of that.</p>
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<p><strong>The policy read.</strong> China's state reserve has been auctioning cotton into its own mills, and the auctions have cleared in full for 24 consecutive sessions — about 192,497 tonnes placed by 21 August. A reserve auction that sells out every day is not a price cap. It is a government discovering that domestic supply is short, and a domestic bid that eventually has to be met from outside. That is the transmission: reserve draw first, import demand second, world price third.</p>
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<figure class="chartfig">
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<figcaption class="charttitle">Thursday's moves</figcaption>
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<svg class="chart" viewBox="0 0 640 330" width="100%" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid meet" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" role="img">
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<style>.chart{--c-a:var(--accent,#1d4032);--c-b:var(--gold,#a8813c);--c-c:#4a6f8c;font-family:inherit}html[data-theme="dark"] .chart{--c-c:#7ba3c4}.chart .grid{stroke:var(--line,#ddd6c9);stroke-width:1}.chart .axis{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:12px}.chart .unit{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:11px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase}.chart .ln{fill:none;stroke-width:2.25;stroke-linejoin:round;stroke-linecap:round}.chart .lg{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:12.5px}.chart .vlabel{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:11.5px;font-weight:600}@media (max-width:900px){.chart .axis{font-size:14px}.chart .unit{font-size:13px}.chart .lg{font-size:14.5px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:13.5px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:2.6}}@media (max-width:640px){.chart .axis{font-size:16px}.chart .unit{font-size:14px}.chart .lg{font-size:16px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:15px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:3.1}}</style>
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<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="286.0" x2="622" y2="286.0" opacity=".45"/>
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<text class="axis" x="46" y="290.0" text-anchor="end">-3</text>
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<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="234.0" x2="622" y2="234.0" opacity=".45"/>
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<text class="axis" x="46" y="238.0" text-anchor="end">-2</text>
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<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="182.0" x2="622" y2="182.0" opacity=".45"/>
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<text class="axis" x="46" y="186.0" text-anchor="end">-1</text>
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<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="130.0" x2="622" y2="130.0"/>
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<text class="axis" x="46" y="134.0" text-anchor="end">0</text>
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<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="78.0" x2="622" y2="78.0" opacity=".45"/>
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<text class="axis" x="46" y="82.0" text-anchor="end">1</text>
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<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="26.0" x2="622" y2="26.0" opacity=".45"/>
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<text class="axis" x="46" y="30.0" text-anchor="end">2</text>
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<text class="unit" x="622" y="16" text-anchor="end">% change on the session</text>
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<text class="axis" x="96.4" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Cotton</text>
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<text class="axis" x="177.3" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Wheat</text>
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<text class="axis" x="258.1" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Bean oil</text>
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<text class="axis" x="339.0" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Corn</text>
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443
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<text class="axis" x="419.9" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Rice</text>
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<text class="axis" x="500.7" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Beans</text>
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<text class="axis" x="581.6" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Meal</text>
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<rect x="76.2" y="130.0" width="40.5" height="145.1" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
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<rect x="157.0" y="130.0" width="40.5" height="132.6" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
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<rect x="237.9" y="130.0" width="40.5" height="74.4" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
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<rect x="318.8" y="130.0" width="40.5" height="26.5" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
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<rect x="399.6" y="130.0" width="40.5" height="8.3" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
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<rect x="480.5" y="106.1" width="40.5" height="23.9" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
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<rect x="561.3" y="43.7" width="40.5" height="86.3" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
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<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="130.0" x2="622" y2="130.0"/>
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</svg>
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<figcaption class="chartcap">Cotton and wheat carried the session. Everything else was noise around them, and only the bean complex held. <span class="chartsrc">CBOT and ICE settlements, Thursday 3 September 2026</span></figcaption>
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</figure>
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457
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<h2 id="key-takeaways">Key takeaways<a class="anchor" href="#key-takeaways" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2>
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<ul><li>An <strong>unfixed on-call sale is a buy order that has not been placed yet</strong>, and it carries a deadline. Read the report by futures month, not by total: the total gives the mood, the months give the trade.</li><li>Mills fix into weakness, growers fix into strength. Whoever is closer to first notice day is the one who has to move.</li><li>A big net on-call number is a <strong>spread signal, not a flat price signal</strong>. In late August the pressure sat in March and July 2027, while December 2026 carried net latent <em>selling</em>.</li><li><strong>Notional is not size.</strong> A rice lot and a corn lot are worth about the same money and are not remotely the same position.</li><li>In a thin market, size is measured in <strong>days to liquidate</strong>, not dollars.</li><li>Rice is thin because policy is its supply curve. Juice is thin because its supply is biology, and the trees are not coming back.</li></ul>
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<h2 id="vocabulary">Vocabulary<a class="anchor" href="#vocabulary" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2>
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<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th>Term</th><th>Meaning</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Cotton No. 2 (CT)</strong></td><td>The ICE cotton contract: 50,000 lb net weight, quoted in US cents per pound. One cent is $500 a lot, one point is $5</td></tr><tr><td><strong>bale</strong></td><td>The unit every cotton statistic uses: 480 lb net in the United States, so one CT lot is about 104 bales</td></tr><tr><td><strong>on-call sale</strong></td><td>Cotton sold by a merchant to a mill at an agreed differential, with the futures leg left for the buyer to fix later</td></tr><tr><td><strong>on-call purchase</strong></td><td>Cotton bought by a merchant from a grower, with the futures leg left for the seller to fix later</td></tr><tr><td><strong>unfixed</strong></td><td>A price-to-be-fixed contract whose futures leg has not been set, so the exposure is still outright</td></tr><tr><td><strong>cotton on-call report</strong></td><td>The weekly CFTC table of unfixed sales and purchases by futures month — a map of forced order flow</td></tr><tr><td><strong>first notice day</strong></td><td>The first date a short may tender delivery, and the practical deadline for fixing or rolling an unfixed position</td></tr><tr><td><strong>rough rice contract</strong></td><td>The CBOT rice future: 2,000 cwt of long grain rough rice, quoted in dollars per hundredweight</td></tr><tr><td><strong>FCOJ-A</strong></td><td>The ICE orange juice contract: 15,000 lb of orange solids, quoted in US cents per pound</td></tr><tr><td><strong>thin market</strong></td><td>A market where the price you get depends materially on the size you want, whatever a single lot is worth</td></tr><tr><td><strong>market depth</strong></td><td>The quantity resting near the touch — what actually sets execution cost, as opposed to headline volume</td></tr><tr><td><strong>days to liquidate</strong></td><td>Position divided by honest daily volume: the sizing measure that replaces a notional limit in a thin market</td></tr><tr><td><strong>state reserve auction</strong></td><td>A government selling from its own stockpile into its domestic market, whose clearing rate reads as a tightness signal</td></tr><tr><td><strong>citrus greening</strong></td><td>Huanglongbing, the bacterial disease that permanently cuts an infected orange tree's yield and cannot be cured</td></tr></tbody></table></div>
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<h2 id="quiz">Quiz<a class="anchor" href="#quiz" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2>
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<p id="q1" class="qq"><strong>Q1.</strong> A spinning mill has bought 620 lots of cotton on call against March 2027, at <em>March plus 780 points</em>. March futures were at 89.93 the day the contract was agreed. The mill takes the view that the market has run too far, waits, and ends up fixing the whole position at 93.40 shortly before first notice day.</p>
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463
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+
<ul><li>What is the mill's final delivered cost in cents per pound, and what is the total invoice in dollars?</li><li>What did the decision to wait cost, against fixing on the day the contract was agreed?</li><li>The treasurer says: "we should simply have bought 620 March futures on day one." Would that have removed the exposure — and what would the mill have been left holding at fixation?</li></ul>
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+
<p id="q2" class="qq"><strong>Q2.</strong> The CFTC on-call report of 21 August 2026 showed December 2026 carrying 30,866 lots of unfixed sales against 32,711 lots of unfixed purchases. What does that month's balance imply about order flow still to come in December futures?</p>
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465
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+
<p id="q3" class="qq"><strong>Q3.</strong> Brazilian hydrous ethanol parity sat at 12.60 c/lb while the No. 11 screen was at 17.56. A fund manager argues that a further rally in raw sugar will pull more Brazilian sugar out of the mills. Why is that wrong?</p>
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466
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+
<p id="q4" class="qq"><strong>Q4.</strong> September arabica settled 36.10 cents over December on the first day of the spot contract's delivery notice period. What does an inverse that steep say about the position of the front-month shorts?</p>
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467
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+
<p id="q5" class="qq"><strong>Q5.</strong> <em>Conversion drill.</em> A Panamax of 44,000 t of soybeans is sold. How many bushels is that, and how many Chicago lots would hedge it?</p>
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+
<h2 id="solutions">Solutions<a class="anchor" href="#solutions" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2><p class="secnote">One reveal per question — check your answer to Q1 without spoiling the rest.</p><div class="solnbar"><button type="button" class="ghost" data-solnall="open">Reveal all</button><button type="button" class="ghost" data-solnall="close">Hide all</button></div>
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469
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<details class="soln" id="a1"><summary><span class="qn">Q1</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>Work it in three steps, and keep the differential separate from the board throughout — that separation is the whole point of an on-call contract.</p>
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+
<p><em>Size.</em> 620 lots × 50,000 lb = <strong>31,000,000 lb</strong>, which at 480 lb to the bale is about <strong>64,583 bales</strong>. Note the tick value that follows from it: one cent on 620 lots is 620 × $500 = <strong>$310,000</strong>.</p>
|
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471
|
+
<p><em>The delivered cost.</em> The differential was agreed and never changes. Only the board moves.</p>
|
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472
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+
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th></th><th class="num">¢/lb</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>March futures at fixation</td><td class="num">93.40</td></tr><tr><td>Differential</td><td class="num">+7.80</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Delivered cost</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>101.20</strong></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
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473
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+
<p>Invoice: 31,000,000 lb × $1.0120 = <strong>$31,372,000</strong>.</p>
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474
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+
<p><em>The cost of waiting.</em> Fixing on day one at 89.93 would have given 89.93 + 7.80 = 97.73 ¢/lb, and an invoice of 31,000,000 × $0.9773 = <strong>$30,296,300</strong>. The wait cost <strong>$1,075,700</strong> — which is simply the 3.47¢ rally times the $310,000-a-cent tick value. Per lot, $1,735.</p>
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475
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+
<p><em>The treasurer.</em> Yes, buying 620 March futures at 89.93 on day one would have removed the exposure exactly. That long would have gained 3.47¢ × 620 × $500 = <strong>$1,075,700</strong>, precisely offsetting the higher fixation. At fixation the mill sells the futures out and is left holding cotton at an effective delivered cost of 97.73 ¢/lb.</p>
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476
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+
<p><strong>The trap the question is testing:</strong> the mill was never "unhedged and waiting". An unfixed on-call purchase <em>is</em> a position — the mill is short the board, one for one, from the moment it takes the cotton. Doing nothing was not neutrality, it was a 620-lot short held by a company that does not consider itself a speculator. And the mill was 620 of the 19,481 lots of unfixed March sales in the market, about 3 percent of a queue of buyers all waiting for the same dip.</p>
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477
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+
<p class="backq"><a href="#q1">↑ Back to question 1</a></p></div></details>
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478
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+
<details class="soln" id="a2"><summary><span class="qn">Q2</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>December carried <strong>net latent selling</strong>, not buying — 32,711 − 30,866 = <strong>1,845 lots</strong> more unfixed purchases than unfixed sales.</p>
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479
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+
<p>The direction is the part people get backwards. An unfixed <em>sale</em> is a mill that has taken cotton and not priced it: its cost rises with the board, so it must eventually buy futures. That is latent buying. An unfixed <em>purchase</em> is a merchant who has bought from a grower with the grower holding the right to fix: that fixation is a sale. That is latent selling.</p>
|
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480
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+
<p>So the December column says that the flow still to come in that contract leans, mildly, to the sell side — even though the market-wide total of 79,167 sales against 67,696 purchases leans to the buy side by 11,471 lots. The overhang was real, but it was not in December. It was in March (+12,519) and July 2027 (+12,651), with December 2027 running hard the other way (−18,583) because that is where growers have sold forward and not yet fixed. Reading the total and buying the front month gets the right thesis in the wrong contract.</p>
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481
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+
<p class="backq"><a href="#q2">↑ Back to question 2</a></p></div></details>
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482
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+
<details class="soln" id="a3"><summary><span class="qn">Q3</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>Because the switch is already spent. Ethanol parity is the level at which a mill earns the same per unit of ATR from sugar as from ethanol. At 17.56 against a parity of 12.60, mills are already about five cents above the point where the decision flips, so every mill that <em>can</em> make sugar is already making the maximum its crystallisation capacity allows. The mix is set at the start of the season by hardware, not by the screen.</p>
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483
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+
<p>Above parity, a rally therefore buys no extra Brazilian tonnes. It has only one remaining job, which is to ration demand. The price sensitivity of Brazilian supply lives <em>below</em> parity, not above it: it is a fall towards 12.60 that changes behaviour, by making ethanol the better home for the cane. A trader who models Brazilian supply as a smooth function of the sugar price will keep expecting an elasticity that has already been used up.</p>
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484
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+
<p class="backq"><a href="#q3">↑ Back to question 3</a></p></div></details>
|
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485
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+
<details class="soln" id="a4"><summary><span class="qn">Q4</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>It says the front-month shorts cannot deliver. A 36.10-cent inverse is the market charging an enormous price for coffee now versus coffee in three months, on the first day of the notice period — which is precisely the moment a short has to choose between tendering certified coffee and buying its position back. When the certified float is small enough (226,242 bags, under half a day of world consumption), most shorts do not have the coffee, and everyone knows it. The inverse is the price of that fact.</p>
|
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486
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+
<p>Two things follow. A carry market pays you to store and an inverse punishes you for it, so nobody with coffee is holding it back. And an inverse this steep is a statement about deliverable supply, not about world supply — the crop can be a record and the front month can still be squeezed, because only certified stock settles a contract.</p>
|
|
487
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+
<p class="backq"><a href="#q4">↑ Back to question 4</a></p></div></details>
|
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488
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+
<details class="soln" id="a5"><summary><span class="qn">Q5</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>A tonne of soybeans is 36.744 bushels (60 lb to the bushel).</p>
|
|
489
|
+
<p>44,000 t × 36.744 = <strong>1,616,736 bu</strong></p>
|
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490
|
+
<p>In your head: ×37 is ×40 minus ×3, so 1,760,000 − 132,000 ≈ 1,628,000 bu — close enough to quote.</p>
|
|
491
|
+
<p>At 5,000 bu to a Chicago lot, 1,616,736 bu is <strong>323 lots</strong>. The trap is the corn factor: using 39.368 would give 1,732,192 bu and 346 lots, and you would be over-hedged by 23 lots.</p>
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492
|
+
<p class="backq"><a href="#q5">↑ Back to question 5</a></p></div></details><h2 id="the-episode-in-writing">The episode, in writing<a class="anchor" href="#the-episode-in-writing" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2>
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493
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+
<h3 id="the-contract-and-the-unit-under-it">The contract, and the unit under it<a class="anchor" href="#the-contract-and-the-unit-under-it" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
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494
|
+
<p>ICE Cotton No. 2 is 50,000 lb of net weight, quoted in US cents per pound. One cent is $500 a lot. One point — a hundredth of a cent — is $5.</p>
|
|
495
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+
<p>Underneath it sits the <strong>bale</strong>, which is what every cotton statistic in the world uses: production, stocks, exports, mill use. A US bale is 480 lb net. So one futures lot is about 104 bales. The number is not elegant, and there is no reason for it beyond history: 480 lb is what a compressed bale weighed when the standard was written, and the trade never revisited it. The practical consequence is that a cotton desk converts between bales and pounds continuously, because the fundamentals arrive in one unit and the hedge is denominated in the other.</p>
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496
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+
<h3 id="on-call-the-report-nobody-else-gets">On call: the report nobody else gets<a class="anchor" href="#on-call-the-report-nobody-else-gets" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
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497
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+
<p>A mill does not usually buy cotton at a price. It buys cotton <strong>on call</strong>: the differential is agreed today, the futures leg is fixed later, at a moment one side gets to choose. Structurally this is coffee's price-to-be-fixed, and the mechanics of fixation are the same.</p>
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498
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+
<p>What cotton has that coffee does not is a <strong>public tally</strong>. Every week the CFTC publishes how much cotton has been sold on call and not yet fixed, and how much has been bought on call and not yet fixed, broken down by futures month. No other soft market publishes its unfixed book.</p>
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499
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+
<p>The direction is where people go wrong, so it is worth stating slowly.</p>
|
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500
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+
<div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th>Position</th><th>Who holds it</th><th>What fixing requires</th><th>Latent flow</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Unfixed on-call <strong>sale</strong></td><td>A merchant has sold to a mill; the mill fixes</td><td>The mill's cost rises with the board, so it must buy futures</td><td><strong>Buying</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Unfixed on-call <strong>purchase</strong></td><td>A merchant has bought from a grower; the grower fixes</td><td>The grower's revenue rises with the board, so fixing is a sale</td><td><strong>Selling</strong></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
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501
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+
<p>A mill sitting on unfixed purchases is <strong>short the board without owning a single contract</strong>. Its cost moves one for one with December or March, and the only way out is to buy — either as a hedge now, or as the act of fixation later. Fixation is not an administrative step. It is a purchase.</p>
|
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502
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+
<p>Which means every unfixed on-call sale in that table is a buy order that has not been placed yet, and unlike a speculator's order it has a deadline attached: first notice day.</p>
|
|
503
|
+
<p>Here is what it sounds like in late January:</p>
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504
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+
<blockquote><strong>MILL:</strong> What's March showing?<br><strong>MERCHANT:</strong> Ninety twenty.<br><strong>MILL:</strong> I'll wait.<br><strong>MERCHANT:</strong> You've four hundred lots to fix and eleven sessions to first notice.<br><strong>MILL:</strong> Then I'll wait ten of them.</blockquote>
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505
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+
<p>Nobody argued about the differential. It was agreed months ago. The entire negotiation was about a calendar.</p>
|
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506
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+
<h3 id="why-it-becomes-a-squeeze">Why it becomes a squeeze<a class="anchor" href="#why-it-becomes-a-squeeze" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
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507
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+
<p>Take a mill holding 400 lots on call against March — 20 million pounds, roughly 41,700 bales. Every cent the board rises before it fixes costs it 400 × $500 = $200,000. Three cents is $600,000, on cotton already sitting in its own warehouse.</p>
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508
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+
<p>That is a cost, not a squeeze. The squeeze is what happens when every mill reasons the same way at once.</p>
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509
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+
<p>Each of them waits because it believes the market will come back. So the buying does not arrive smoothly across the quarter. It arrives compressed into the last sessions before the notice period, from buyers who by then have no view left — only a deadline. A rally that began with a dry Texas summer ends with people buying because the calendar told them to, and the last stretch of it has nothing to do with cotton fundamentals at all.</p>
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510
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+
<h3 id="the-month-is-the-trade">The month is the trade<a class="anchor" href="#the-month-is-the-trade" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
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511
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+
<p>The 21 August report showed <strong>79,167 lots of unfixed sales against 67,696 of unfixed purchases</strong> — net about 11,471 lots of latent buying. The obvious conclusion is to be long cotton. The obvious conclusion gets the contract wrong.</p>
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512
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+
<figure class="chartfig">
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513
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+
<figcaption class="charttitle">Net unfixed on-call, by month</figcaption>
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514
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+
<svg class="chart" viewBox="0 0 640 330" width="100%" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid meet" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" role="img">
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515
|
+
<style>.chart{--c-a:var(--accent,#1d4032);--c-b:var(--gold,#a8813c);--c-c:#4a6f8c;font-family:inherit}html[data-theme="dark"] .chart{--c-c:#7ba3c4}.chart .grid{stroke:var(--line,#ddd6c9);stroke-width:1}.chart .axis{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:12px}.chart .unit{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:11px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase}.chart .ln{fill:none;stroke-width:2.25;stroke-linejoin:round;stroke-linecap:round}.chart .lg{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:12.5px}.chart .vlabel{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:11.5px;font-weight:600}@media (max-width:900px){.chart .axis{font-size:14px}.chart .unit{font-size:13px}.chart .lg{font-size:14.5px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:13.5px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:2.6}}@media (max-width:640px){.chart .axis{font-size:16px}.chart .unit{font-size:14px}.chart .lg{font-size:16px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:15px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:3.1}}</style>
|
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516
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+
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="286.0" x2="622" y2="286.0" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
517
|
+
<text class="axis" x="46" y="290.0" text-anchor="end">-20,000</text>
|
|
518
|
+
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="206.4" x2="622" y2="206.4" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
519
|
+
<text class="axis" x="46" y="210.4" text-anchor="end">-10,000</text>
|
|
520
|
+
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="126.7" x2="622" y2="126.7"/>
|
|
521
|
+
<text class="axis" x="46" y="130.7" text-anchor="end">0</text>
|
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522
|
+
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="47.1" x2="622" y2="47.1" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
523
|
+
<text class="axis" x="46" y="51.1" text-anchor="end">10,000</text>
|
|
524
|
+
<text class="unit" x="622" y="16" text-anchor="end">lots (sales less purchases)</text>
|
|
525
|
+
<text class="axis" x="112.6" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Dec 26</text>
|
|
526
|
+
<text class="axis" x="225.8" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Mar 27</text>
|
|
527
|
+
<text class="axis" x="339.0" y="306" text-anchor="middle">May 27</text>
|
|
528
|
+
<text class="axis" x="452.2" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Jul 27</text>
|
|
529
|
+
<text class="axis" x="565.4" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Dec 27</text>
|
|
530
|
+
<rect x="92.4" y="126.7" width="40.5" height="14.7" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
531
|
+
<rect x="205.6" y="27.1" width="40.5" height="99.7" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
532
|
+
<rect x="318.8" y="69.5" width="40.5" height="57.2" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
533
|
+
<rect x="432.0" y="26.0" width="40.5" height="100.7" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
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534
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+
<rect x="545.2" y="126.7" width="40.5" height="148.0" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
535
|
+
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="126.7" x2="622" y2="126.7"/>
|
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536
|
+
</svg>
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537
|
+
<figcaption class="chartcap">The overhang is not in December. It is in March and July 2027 — and December 2027 leans the other way, because that is where growers have sold forward and not yet priced. <span class="chartsrc">CFTC Cotton On-Call report, week ended 21 August 2026</span></figcaption>
|
|
538
|
+
</figure>
|
|
539
|
+
<p>December 2026 is net <em>short</em> of buying: 30,866 sales against 32,711 purchases. The pressure sits in March 2027 (+12,519 net to buy) and July 2027 (+12,651, against almost nothing on the other side). December 2027 runs hard the other way, at −18,583, because that is the month growers use to sell a crop forward before they are willing to price it.</p>
|
|
540
|
+
<p>So the report is not a flat price signal. It is a <strong>spread signal</strong>. What it argues for is long March against December, not long cotton.</p>
|
|
541
|
+
<p>And there is a layer beneath even that. The purchase side of the table is the grower. Growers fix into strength; mills fix into weakness. A rally therefore summons mill buying and grower selling simultaneously, and which one dominates is a question of who is nearer a deadline — not of who is more numerous. That is the read, and it changes week to week as the calendar advances.</p>
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|
542
|
+
<h3 id="thin-is-not-small">Thin is not small<a class="anchor" href="#thin-is-not-small" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
|
|
543
|
+
<p>Rice and orange juice teach the second lesson, and it starts by killing an intuition.</p>
|
|
544
|
+
<figure class="chartfig">
|
|
545
|
+
<figcaption class="charttitle">One lot, four markets</figcaption>
|
|
546
|
+
<svg class="chart" viewBox="0 0 640 330" width="100%" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid meet" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" role="img">
|
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547
|
+
<style>.chart{--c-a:var(--accent,#1d4032);--c-b:var(--gold,#a8813c);--c-c:#4a6f8c;font-family:inherit}html[data-theme="dark"] .chart{--c-c:#7ba3c4}.chart .grid{stroke:var(--line,#ddd6c9);stroke-width:1}.chart .axis{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:12px}.chart .unit{fill:var(--ink-soft,#4a4238);font-size:11px;letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase}.chart .ln{fill:none;stroke-width:2.25;stroke-linejoin:round;stroke-linecap:round}.chart .lg{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:12.5px}.chart .vlabel{fill:var(--ink,#16110c);font-size:11.5px;font-weight:600}@media (max-width:900px){.chart .axis{font-size:14px}.chart .unit{font-size:13px}.chart .lg{font-size:14.5px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:13.5px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:2.6}}@media (max-width:640px){.chart .axis{font-size:16px}.chart .unit{font-size:14px}.chart .lg{font-size:16px}.chart .vlabel{font-size:15px}.chart .ln{stroke-width:3.1}}</style>
|
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548
|
+
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="286.0" x2="622" y2="286.0"/>
|
|
549
|
+
<text class="axis" x="46" y="290.0" text-anchor="end">0</text>
|
|
550
|
+
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="225.8" x2="622" y2="225.8" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
551
|
+
<text class="axis" x="46" y="229.8" text-anchor="end">10,000</text>
|
|
552
|
+
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="165.7" x2="622" y2="165.7" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
553
|
+
<text class="axis" x="46" y="169.7" text-anchor="end">20,000</text>
|
|
554
|
+
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="105.5" x2="622" y2="105.5" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
555
|
+
<text class="axis" x="46" y="109.5" text-anchor="end">30,000</text>
|
|
556
|
+
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="45.4" x2="622" y2="45.4" opacity=".45"/>
|
|
557
|
+
<text class="axis" x="46" y="49.4" text-anchor="end">40,000</text>
|
|
558
|
+
<text class="unit" x="622" y="16" text-anchor="end">US$ notional per lot</text>
|
|
559
|
+
<text class="axis" x="126.8" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Dec corn</text>
|
|
560
|
+
<text class="axis" x="268.2" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Nov rice</text>
|
|
561
|
+
<text class="axis" x="409.8" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Dec wheat</text>
|
|
562
|
+
<text class="axis" x="551.2" y="306" text-anchor="middle">Dec cotton</text>
|
|
563
|
+
<rect x="106.5" y="123.4" width="40.5" height="162.6" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
564
|
+
<rect x="248.0" y="97.1" width="40.5" height="188.9" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
565
|
+
<rect x="389.5" y="59.2" width="40.5" height="226.8" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
566
|
+
<rect x="531.0" y="26.0" width="40.5" height="260.0" rx="2" fill="var(--c-a)" opacity=".85"/>
|
|
567
|
+
<line class="grid" x1="56" y1="286.0" x2="622" y2="286.0"/>
|
|
568
|
+
</svg>
|
|
569
|
+
<figcaption class="chartcap">Within twenty thousand dollars of each other in notional — and orders of magnitude apart in depth. Contract size tells you almost nothing about how hard a position is to leave. <span class="chartsrc">Settlements of 3 September 2026 and exchange contract specifications</span></figcaption>
|
|
570
|
+
</figure>
|
|
571
|
+
<p>A rough rice lot is 2,000 cwt — 200,000 lb — and at $15.70 that is $31,400. A December corn lot at 540¾ is $27,038. Wheat is $37,713, cotton $43,225. By notional these are the same instrument.</p>
|
|
572
|
+
<p>They are nothing like the same instrument, because <strong>thin does not mean small. Thin means the price you get depends on how much you want.</strong> In corn, 370 lots is invisible. In rough rice, 319 lots — almost identical money — is somebody's week.</p>
|
|
573
|
+
<p>The practical consequence is that a notional risk limit is the wrong control in a thin market. The right measure is <strong>days to liquidate</strong>: take the position, divide by honest daily volume, and ask how many sessions it takes to get out without being the market yourself. If the answer is more than two or three, the desk does not have a position. It has a commitment.</p>
|
|
574
|
+
<h3 id="two-different-kinds-of-thin">Two different kinds of thin<a class="anchor" href="#two-different-kinds-of-thin" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h3>
|
|
575
|
+
<p>Rice and juice arrive at thinness from opposite directions, and the distinction matters because it tells you what kind of shock to expect.</p>
|
|
576
|
+
<p><strong>Rice is thin because most of it never moves.</strong> It is grown and eaten in the same countries; only around a tenth of world production crosses a border at all. And that traded tenth is dominated by governments — export duties, minimum export prices, licence regimes. One notification out of Delhi resets the world price faster than any monsoon.</p>
|
|
577
|
+
<p>When policy is the supply curve, information does not accumulate. There is nothing, and then there is everything. That is why in rice the futures matter less than the announcements, and why a position that looked liquid on Friday can be untradeable on Monday morning.</p>
|
|
578
|
+
<p><strong>Juice is thin for the opposite reason.</strong> Its supply constraint is not policy but biology, and it is one-directional. Citrus greening has been working through São Paulo for two decades; around 40 percent of a recent Brazilian crop was affected. A tree that has it does not recover. So this is not a weather premium that builds ahead of a window and decays on the calendar — it is a slow, permanent reduction in the number of producing trees. FCOJ-A on ICE is 15,000 lb of orange solids. A market that small does not absorb a fund. It gets moved by one.</p>
|
|
579
|
+
<p>Cotton, then, sits between the two. It is liquid enough to trade properly, and it publishes the one thing the thin markets never tell you: exactly how much forced buying is still to come, and in which month.</p>
|
|
580
|
+
<section class="glossec"><h2 id="glossary">Glossary<a class="anchor" href="#glossary" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a></h2><p class="secnote">Every unit, convention and desk expression the show had introduced by episode 15. Nothing said in the audio should ever be unrecoverable.</p><details class="gloss"><summary>Open the glossary<span class="sl">247 terms</span></summary><div class="glossbody"><label class="gsearch"><span class="vh">Search the glossary</span><input type="search" id="gfilter" placeholder="Search terms…" autocomplete="off"></label><div class="gchips" role="group" aria-label="Filter by episode"><button type="button" class="gchip on" data-gep="all">All<span class="gn">247</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="1">Ep 1<span class="gn">37</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="2">Ep 2<span class="gn">15</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="3">Ep 3<span class="gn">11</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="4">Ep 4<span class="gn">13</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="5">Ep 5<span class="gn">12</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="6">Ep 6<span class="gn">13</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="7">Ep 7<span class="gn">14</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="8">Ep 8<span class="gn">16</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="9">Ep 9<span class="gn">18</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="10">Ep 10<span class="gn">18</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="11">Ep 11<span class="gn">18</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="12">Ep 12<span class="gn">15</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="13">Ep 13<span class="gn">17</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="14">Ep 14<span class="gn">17</span></button><button type="button" class="gchip" data-gep="15">Ep 15<span class="gn">13</span></button></div><dl id="glist"><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>45Z</dt><dd>the US clean fuel production credit, one of the two policy levers that sets American soybean oil demand <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>abandonment</dt><dd>planted area never harvested for grain, lost to drought, flood or a switch to silage <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>ABCD</dt><dd>the four historic majors, Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>anhydrous ethanol</dt><dd>near-water-free ethanol blended into petrol under a mandate, taking 1.7651 kg of ATR per litre <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>arabica</dt><dd>the high-altitude coffee species, aromatic and acidic, lower-yielding and more fragile, priced on ICE in New York <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>arb</dt><dd>the full economics of moving a cargo, buy price plus freight and costs against the sale <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>arb window</dt><dd>the period during which a route's economics work, opening and shutting on freight, differentials and FX rather than on flat price <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>asset-heavy</dt><dd>owning the physical chain, which converts a volatile trading margin into a steadier toll <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>asset-light</dt><dd>renting elevators, terminals and plants rather than owning them <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>at</dt><dd>the small word that introduces the offer side (462 bid, at 462 and a half) <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>ATR</dt><dd>Acucar Total Recuperavel or total recoverable sugar, the kilos of sugar recoverable from a tonne of cane, the unit in which Brazilian growers are paid and the unit in which a mill compares sugar against ethanol <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>B50</dt><dd>a blending mandate requiring 50 percent biodiesel in the diesel pool, the level Indonesia moved to in 2026 <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>bag (coffee)</dt><dd>60 kg, how the coffee trade counts volume <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>balance sheet</dt><dd>the one-page supply and demand statement for one crop and one marketing year, built so that supply minus use equals ending stocks and the page closes <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>bale</dt><dd>the standard unit of cotton statistics, 480 lb net in the United States, so one Cotton No. 2 lot is about 104 bales <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>Baltic Dry Index (BDI)</dt><dd>the Baltic Exchange headline dry bulk freight index, a weighted composite of the Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize route assessments <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>bid</dt><dd>the price a buyer will pay <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>bill of lading</dt><dd>receipt, contract of carriage and document of title in one, whoever holds it owns the cargo <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>biomass-based diesel</dt><dd>the RFS category covering biodiesel and renewable diesel made from fats and vegetable oils <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>blend wall</dt><dd>the physical or warranty limit on how much conventional biodiesel an engine or fuel system will tolerate <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>blending</dt><dd>combining lots of different quality so the weighted average meets a contract specification, creating value from material nobody else can use <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>board crush</dt><dd>the processing margin implied purely by futures prices, meal price times 0.022 plus oil price times 0.11 minus the bean price, in dollars per bushel <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>bottleneck asset</dt><dd>a facility with no near substitute at the moment it is needed, whose owner sets the price rather than quoting one <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>bunkers</dt><dd>the vessel's fuel, priced separately from the hire and carried by the owner on a voyage charter and by the charterer on a time charter <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>bushel</dt><dd>volume measure standardized into weight, 60 lb for soybeans and wheat, 56 lb for corn <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>bushels per tonne</dt><dd>about 36.7 for soybeans and wheat, 39.4 for corn <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>buyer's call</dt><dd>a price-to-be-fixed contract in which the buyer holds the right to choose the moment of fixation <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>calendar spread</dt><dd>the price difference between two months of the same contract, traded as one instrument at one price <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>cancelling date</dt><dd>the last day of the laycan, after which the counterparty may cancel <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>capacity utilisation</dt><dd>the share of storage capacity actually occupied, the best leading indicator of what harvest basis is about to do <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>Capesize</dt><dd>a bulk carrier of about 180,000 dwt and up, too large for the Panama Canal, used mainly for iron ore and coal <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>carry market (contango)</dt><dd>a curve with later months above nearer ones, the market pays for storage <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>carry-in</dt><dd>stocks left over from the previous season, the starting point of a balance sheet <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>carryout</dt><dd>ending stocks, the desk's one-word name for what is left at the end of the marketing year <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>Center-South</dt><dd>the Brazilian sugarcane region running from Sao Paulo through Minas Gerais and Goias, about 90 percent of the national crop and the swing supplier of the world sugar market <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>cents per bushel</dt><dd>Chicago grain quoting unit, 4.39 dollars per bushel is spoken four thirty-nine <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>certified stock</dt><dd>coffee sampled, graded and stamped as deliverable against the futures contract and held in an exchange-licensed warehouse, the deliverable float rather than world inventory <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>CFR</dt><dd>cost and freight, the seller pays the voyage to a named destination but risk still passes at loading <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>charter party</dt><dd>the contract hiring the vessel, between charterer and shipowner <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>CIF</dt><dd>cost insurance and freight, CFR plus the seller buys the marine insurance the buyer would claim on <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>citrus greening</dt><dd>huanglongbing, the bacterial disease that permanently reduces an infected orange tree's yield and cannot be cured <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>Coffee C (KC)</dt><dd>the ICE arabica futures contract, 37,500 lb quoted in US cents per pound with a 0.05 cent tick worth 18.75 dollars <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>conversion cost</dt><dd>the variable cost of turning beans into products, gas, power, hexane, labour and maintenance, typically 35 to 50 cents a bushel at a modern plant <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>conversion factors</dt><dd>36.7 bushels per tonne for wheat and beans and 39.4 for corn, so cents per bushel times 0.367 or 0.394 gives dollars per tonne <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>cooperative (co-op)</dt><dd>a grower-owned body that pools, mills and markets its members' coffee, and often the counterparty an exporter actually buys from <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>Cotton No. 2</dt><dd>the ICE cotton futures contract, 50,000 lb net weight quoted in US cents per pound, worth 500 dollars a cent and 5 dollars a point <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>cotton on-call report</dt><dd>the weekly CFTC publication of unfixed on-call sales and purchases by futures month, read as a map of forced order flow rather than as a price forecast <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>country elevator</dt><dd>the first commercial storage point off the farm, buying from growers and shipping onward by truck, rail or barge <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>CPO</dt><dd>crude palm oil, the unrefined oil pressed from the fruit of the oil palm and the benchmark grade traded internationally <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>Crop Production</dt><dd>the USDA report published alongside WASDE carrying the survey-based yield and area figures <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>cross-hedge</dt><dd>hedging with a contract that is not your grade or your origin, which removes flat price and adds correlation risk <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>crush capacity</dt><dd>installed daily processing volume, a physical constraint that cannot be expanded inside a marketing year <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>cwt</dt><dd>hundredweight, 100 lb, the quoting unit for US rice and cattle <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>cwt (hundredweight)</dt><dd>100 lb, the quoting unit for US rice <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>days to liquidate</dt><dd>a position divided by honest daily volume, the sizing measure that replaces a notional limit in a thin market <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>deadweight (dwt)</dt><dd>the total weight a vessel can carry including cargo, fuel, water, stores and crew, so always more than the cargo she can load <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>Dec over</dt><dd>spread quoting convention that names the expensive leg, December fifteen over means December is 15 cents above the other month <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>defect count</dt><dd>the number of black, broken, insect-damaged or foreign items in a fixed sample weight, the primary coffee grading measure <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>deferred</dt><dd>months or shipment windows further out <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>deliverable float</dt><dd>the quantity actually available to settle a futures delivery, which sets how far a front month can travel regardless of world supply <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>deliverable origin differential</dt><dd>the fixed premium or discount the contract assigns to each approved origin, unchanged whatever the physical market does <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>delivery notice period</dt><dd>the window in which shorts may tender certified stock against the expiring contract <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>demand-to-supply ratio</dt><dd>the Baltic measure of tonne-mile demand growth against fleet growth, above 1.0 when cargo is outrunning ships <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>demurrage</dt><dd>the penalty owed when a vessel is held beyond the agreed laytime <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>despatch</dt><dd>the reward paid when loading beats laytime, customarily half the demurrage rate <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>destination refinery</dt><dd>a standalone refinery at the consuming end that buys raws on the water and sells whites locally, earning the white premium less its costs rather than a crop margin <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>differential</dt><dd>the premium or discount to a named futures month, as in November plus 80, the negotiated part of a physical quote <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>differential (basis)</dt><dd>the premium or discount to a named futures month, quoted as plus 80 or minus 20 <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>discount schedule</dt><dd>the published table of price deductions for grain outside a contract's grade limits, and the raw material of every blending trade <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>discretionary blending</dt><dd>blending vegetable oil into the fuel pool purely because it is cheaper than gasoil, with no mandate and no subsidy behind it <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>distillers grains</dt><dd>DDGS, the protein co-product of ethanol production, sold back into the feed market <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>done</dt><dd>the word that seals a trade <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>draft</dt><dd>the depth of hull below the waterline, which rises as the ship loads and is the hard physical limit on which berths and rivers a vessel can enter <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>draft survey</dt><dd>weighing a cargo by reading the ship's displacement before and after loading <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>draw area</dt><dd>the geographic catchment a crush plant buys its beans from, whose size sets how hard it must bid the local basis <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>durum</dt><dd>the pasta wheat, a separate species with its own thin market <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>elevation margin</dt><dd>the toll an elevator earns for taking grain in, conditioning it and loading it out, separate from any gain on the basis <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>ethanol grind</dt><dd>the rate at which ethanol plants consume corn, which slows when the plant margin turns negative and removes corn demand in steps <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>ethanol parity</dt><dd>the sugar price at which a mill earns the same per unit of ATR from sugar as from ethanol, the level at which its production decision flips <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>EUDR</dt><dd>the EU deforestation regulation, which from December 2026 requires proof that a shipment's land was not deforested and which splits origin differentials into compliant and non-compliant <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>export levy</dt><dd>a tax charged on a commodity leaving the country, used in Indonesia both to discourage exports of crude palm oil and to fund the domestic blending subsidy <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>falling number</dt><dd>the sprout-damage test, a low number demotes milling wheat to feed wheat <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>FAME</dt><dd>fatty acid methyl ester, the chemical name for conventional biodiesel made by reacting a vegetable oil with methanol <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>farmgate price</dt><dd>what the grower is actually paid at the farm, after the intermediary's margin and inland costs are taken out of the export value <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>FCOJ-A</dt><dd>the ICE frozen concentrated orange juice contract, 15,000 lb of orange solids quoted in US cents per pound <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>FCPO</dt><dd>the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives crude palm oil futures contract, 25 tonnes per lot, quoted in Malaysian ringgit per tonne with a one ringgit tick <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>feed and residual</dt><dd>the inferred demand line that carries livestock feeding together with every measurement error in the rest of the sheet <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>feed floor</dt><dd>the price at which feed substitution demand appears under a grain, corn setting the floor under feed wheat <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>feed wheat</dt><dd>wheat sold on energy and protein rather than milling specification, priced relationally against corn rather than at a flat price <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>firm</dt><dd>a tradable quote that binds if accepted, often with a time limit <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>first notice day</dt><dd>the first day on which a short futures position may be tendered for delivery, and the practical deadline for rolling a hedge <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>five percent more or less</dt><dd>the contractual tolerance on cargo size, exercised at the seller's option <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>fixation</dt><dd>the act of setting the futures leg of a price-to-be-fixed contract, which converts a differential into a flat price <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>fixation window</dt><dd>the period inside which the fixing party must declare, normally ending before the referenced contract's notice period <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>fixing</dt><dd>agreeing the charter of a specific vessel, the moment a freight exposure stops being open <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>fixing risk</dt><dd>the exposure created by the gap between agreeing a differential and setting the price, carried as market risk by the fixing party and as credit risk by the other <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>flat price</dt><dd>the full outright price level <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>flat price exposure</dt><dd>outright price risk, removed deliberately by hedging so only the basis remains <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>FOB</dt><dd>free on board, the cargo is priced at the load port with the buyer taking it from the ship's rail <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>forward freight agreement (FFA)</dt><dd>a cash-settled swap on a Baltic index route or basket over a calendar month, the only liquid way to hedge freight <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>front month</dt><dd>the nearest actively traded contract month, where liquidity is deepest <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>full carry</dt><dd>storage plus interest per month of holding grain, the practical ceiling on a carry spread <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>gasoil</dt><dd>the traded middle distillate that diesel prices off, and the reference against which discretionary blending economics are judged <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>geared vessel</dt><dd>a ship carrying its own cranes, which can therefore discharge at a berth with no shore equipment <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>grading</dt><dd>the exchange pass-fail examination of a sample covering defect count, screen size and a clean cup <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>Grain Stocks</dt><dd>the quarterly USDA survey of physical inventories, from which the feed and residual line is backed out <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>green coffee</dt><dd>unroasted milled coffee beans, the form in which all internationally traded coffee moves <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>gross processing margin</dt><dd>the industry name for product value minus raw material cost, the crush stated as a margin <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>Handysize</dt><dd>the smallest mainstream dry bulk class at roughly 10,000 to 40,000 dwt, geared and able to work berths larger ships cannot reach <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>hard red spring (HRS)</dt><dd>the 13.5 percent plus Minneapolis wheat bought to lift the protein of a grist <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>hard red winter (HRW)</dt><dd>the 11 to 12.5 percent bread wheat priced at Kansas City, the US wheat that competes with the Black Sea <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>harvest basis</dt><dd>the seasonal low in the cash-minus-futures spread, set when a year of crop arrives in six weeks into a pipe sized to move it over twelve months <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>harvested acres</dt><dd>area actually cut for grain, roughly 8 million acres below planted for US corn, and the denominator that yield is quoted against <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>hexane</dt><dd>the solvent used to extract the last of the oil from the flaked bean, and a real line in the conversion cost <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>hit</dt><dd>your bid was taken by a seller <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>hit the bid</dt><dd>to sell into someone else's bid <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>hydrous ethanol</dt><dd>roughly 95 percent ethanol sold directly at the pump for flex-fuel cars in Brazil, taking 1.6913 kg of ATR per litre <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>ICUMSA</dt><dd>the colour scale for refined sugar, lower being whiter, with the London No. 5 contract requiring 45 ICUMSA or better <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>implied disappearance</dt><dd>use derived by subtraction rather than by measurement, the technique that produces the residual lines of a balance sheet <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>inclusion rate</dt><dd>the share of a single ingredient in a feed ration, capped by nutrition and by anti-nutritional factors <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>Incoterms</dt><dd>the standard three-letter trade terms that allocate cost and risk between buyer and seller <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>indication</dt><dd>a guide price that is not firm <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>initial margin</dt><dd>the deposit the clearing house takes per lot when a position is opened <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>inter-exchange spread</dt><dd>the price gap between two exchanges pricing related but different goods, such as Kansas City over Chicago <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>inverse (backwardation)</dt><dd>a curve with nearer months above later ones, the market pays a premium for immediate delivery <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>joint product</dt><dd>two outputs produced in fixed proportion from one input, so that neither can be made without the other <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>kilolitre</dt><dd>one thousand litres, the volume unit Asian governments state biofuel mandates in, converted to tonnes using the fuel's density of about 0.88 t per cubic metre for biodiesel <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>laycan</dt><dd>the window during which a vessel may present for loading <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>laytime</dt><dd>the contractually allowed time to load or discharge before demurrage begins <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>licensed warehouse</dt><dd>a storage facility the exchange approves to hold deliverable stock, at named ports only <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>lift the offer</dt><dd>to buy from someone else's offer <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>lifted</dt><dd>your offer was taken by a buyer <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>limit move</dt><dd>an exchange-set maximum daily price change, trading pauses beyond it <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>line-up</dt><dd>the queue of vessels waiting to load at a port, a key driver of origin basis <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>load-out capacity</dt><dd>how fast an elevator can ship grain out, the lever that decides whether a full house is a crisis or a rotation <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>long ton</dt><dd>2,240 lb, the imperial weight unit the sugar No. 11 contract is still sized in at 50 long tons a lot <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>lot</dt><dd>one futures contract, 5,000 bushels for Chicago grains, the unit desks count positions in <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>managed money</dt><dd>speculative funds reported as non-commercial in exchange positioning data, which trade direction rather than physical <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>market depth</dt><dd>the quantity resting on the book near the touch, which is what determines execution cost rather than headline volume <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>marketing year</dt><dd>the accounting year a crop is measured in, September to August for US corn and soybeans and June to May for US wheat <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>Matif milling wheat (EBM)</dt><dd>the Paris contract, 50 tonnes a lot quoted in euros per tonne and delivered into Rouen and Dunkirk <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>meal contract</dt><dd>CBOT soybean meal, 100 short tons, quoted in dollars per short ton <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>melt loss</dt><dd>the sugar lost between raws in and whites out, roughly six percent, which makes a refiner's break-even white premium a function of the raw price rather than a constant <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>metric tonne</dt><dd>2,204.6 lb, the grain trading weight unit outside the US <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>month codes</dt><dd>F G H J K M N Q U V X Z for January through December, the Z is December <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>NASS</dt><dd>USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service, the body running the surveys behind the published numbers <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>natural process</dt><dd>coffee dried with the fruit still attached, giving a sweeter, heavier and more variable cup <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>net length</dt><dd>a fund category's long positions less its short positions, the number that says how much of a rally is positioning <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>new crop</dt><dd>the marketing year about to begin, priced by the contract months that follow the coming harvest <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>No. 11</dt><dd>the ICE raw cane sugar futures contract, 112,000 lb quoted in US cents per pound FOB at origin, and the world price of raw sugar <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>No. 5</dt><dd>the ICE London white sugar futures contract, 50 tonnes quoted in US dollars per tonne delivered, and the world price of refined sugar <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>nomination</dt><dd>formally naming the performing vessel under a cargo contract <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>NOPA</dt><dd>the National Oilseed Processors Association, whose monthly published crush figure makes US soybean crush a measured line rather than an inferred one <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>notice of readiness (NOR)</dt><dd>the master's formal declaration that the vessel has arrived and is ready, it starts the laytime clock <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>offer</dt><dd>the price a seller will accept <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>oil contract</dt><dd>CBOT soybean oil, 60,000 pounds, quoted in cents per pound <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>oil share</dt><dd>soybean oil's percentage of the combined value of the meal and oil produced from one bushel <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>oil share trade</dt><dd>long soybean oil against short soybean meal, the clean expression of a view on a fuel policy because it isolates relative product value from the bean basis <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>old crop</dt><dd>the marketing year now ending, priced by the contract months before the new harvest arrives <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>olein and stearin</dt><dd>the liquid and solid fractions palm separates into when refined, sold into cooking oil and into fats respectively <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>on-call purchase</dt><dd>cotton bought by a merchant from a grower with the futures leg left for the seller to fix later, which makes it latent futures selling <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>on-call sale</dt><dd>cotton sold by a merchant to a mill at an agreed differential with the futures leg left for the buyer to fix later, which makes it latent futures buying <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>outright</dt><dd>a contract agreed at a flat price rather than as a differential, with no fixation to come <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>P7 and P8</dt><dd>Baltic Panamax route codes for US Gulf to Qingdao and Santos to Qingdao, the two assessments that set the soybean origin arb <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>Panamax and Kamsarmax</dt><dd>the 75,000 to 82,000 dwt workhorse of the grain and coal trades, usually gearless and drawing about fourteen metres fully loaded <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>paper</dt><dd>exchange futures and options, used by a physical desk to hedge rather than to speculate <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>part cargo</dt><dd>loading a vessel below capacity because the berth, river or canal cannot take her full draft <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>pass-fail specification</dt><dd>a contract term that cannot be met on average, such as contamination, infestation or an unapproved genetic event, where blending increases the affected tonnage instead of diluting it <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>physical (cash)</dt><dd>real cargoes under contract with specs and load windows, as opposed to paper <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>plant crush</dt><dd>what a physical plant actually earns, the board crush adjusted for bean, meal and oil basis and net of conversion cost <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>planted acres</dt><dd>area sown, the number that moves on farmer decisions and USDA area surveys <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>point</dt><dd>one hundredth of a cent per pound, how softs desks count moves <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>point (softs)</dt><dd>one hundredth of a cent per pound, so up 300 points means up 3 cents <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>polarisation (pol)</dt><dd>the sucrose purity of a sugar measured by the rotation of polarised light and expressed in degrees, the basis on which raw sugar is priced and settled <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>pollination</dt><dd>the roughly one-week corn window in mid-July in the northern hemisphere after which the ear count is fixed and no forecast can change it <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>price assessment</dt><dd>a published daily price built by surveying brokers and exporters, used where no futures contract exists <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>price-to-be-fixed (PTBF)</dt><dd>a physical contract where quantity, quality, shipment and differential are agreed now and the futures price is set later <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>prompt</dt><dd>the nearby month or shipment window, ready to move now <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>protein spec</dt><dd>the contractual protein percentage that turns the word wheat into a price <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>putting on the crush</dt><dd>buying bean futures and selling meal and oil futures against them in a 10-11-9 lot ratio, which fixes the processing margin <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>quality basis</dt><dd>the spread between the grade you own and the grade the futures contract delivers <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>ration</dt><dd>the formulated feed mix a mill grinds, in which every ingredient carries an inclusion limit and a substitution price against the others <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>raws</dt><dd>raw cane sugar, the crystalline product a cane mill exports before refining, traded at 96 degrees polarisation <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>receiving capacity</dt><dd>how fast an elevator can take grain in, in bushels or tonnes per hour, a different constraint from how much it can hold <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>renewable diesel</dt><dd>hydrotreated vegetable oil or HVO, a drop-in diesel chemically identical to fossil diesel and not limited by a blend wall, unlike FAME <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>replacement value</dt><dd>what it would cost to buy back today what you have just sold, the test of whether a price was genuinely good <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>residual</dt><dd>a figure obtained by subtraction, such as ending stocks, which absorbs any error in the larger numbers almost in full <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>retracement</dt><dd>the partial give-back of a price move once the fear that produced it fails to be confirmed <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>reverse crush</dt><dd>the opposite position, short beans and long products, used when a processor expects to idle capacity rather than run it <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>RFS</dt><dd>the US Renewable Fuel Standard, the rule that sets annual minimum volumes of renewable fuel that must be blended into American transport fuel <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>RIN</dt><dd>renewable identification number, the tradable compliance certificate generated with each gallon of renewable fuel, at 1.5 RINs per gallon of biodiesel, which is why a mandate volume must be checked for basis before it is multiplied by a feedstock factor <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>river-sea vessel</dt><dd>a small shallow-draft ship built to work both inland waterways and short sea legs, the only class able to load in the Sea of Azov <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>robusta</dt><dd>the low-altitude coffee species, hardier and higher-yielding, about double the caffeine and a flatter cup, priced in London <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>robusta contract (RC)</dt><dd>the London robusta futures contract, 10 tonnes quoted in dollars per tonne with a one dollar tick worth 10 dollars <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>roll</dt><dd>closing a hedge in one month and reopening it further out, executed as a spread trade <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>roll cost</dt><dd>the gain or loss from moving a hedge to a later month, equal to the spread between the two months and negative for a short hedge in an inverted market <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>rough rice contract</dt><dd>the CBOT rice future, 2,000 hundredweight of long grain rough rice quoted in US dollars per hundredweight <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="8"><dt>run rate</dt><dd>the share of installed capacity a plant is actually operating at, the lever a crusher pulls when margins move <span class="gep">ep 8</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>RVO</dt><dd>renewable volume obligation, the share of the national mandate assigned to an individual refiner or importer <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>safrinha</dt><dd>Brazil's second corn crop, planted February to March into soybean stubble and pollinating April to May, about three quarters of Brazilian corn production <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>screen size</dt><dd>bean size measured by the mesh it will not fall through, part of the deliverable specification <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>Section 301</dt><dd>the US statute under which country-specific tariffs are imposed after a trade-practice investigation, applied to Brazilian goods from 22 July 2026 with coffee exempt <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>segregation</dt><dd>keeping identities and grades physically apart in separate bins, the precondition for being able to blend deliberately later <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="13"><dt>seller's call</dt><dd>a price-to-be-fixed contract in which the seller holds the right to choose the moment of fixation <span class="gep">ep 13</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>short ton</dt><dd>2,000 lb, used by US soybean meal, about 10 percent lighter than a metric tonne <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>shrink</dt><dd>weight lost when grain is dried to a safe keeping moisture, deducted as a percentage and a real cost to whoever owns the grain <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>soft red winter (SRW)</dt><dd>the low-protein soft wheat the Chicago contract delivers, used for cakes biscuits and crackers <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>soluble solids</dt><dd>the share of the coffee bean that dissolves in water, higher in robusta, which is why robusta dominates instant coffee <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>space time form</dt><dd>the three transformations a merchant is paid for, geography, storage and processing <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>standing bid</dt><dd>demand that is present regardless of price because it is created by legal obligation rather than by choice <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>state reserve auction</dt><dd>a government selling cotton or grain from its own stockpile into its domestic market, whose clearing rate is read as a signal of domestic tightness <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>statement of facts</dt><dd>the port log of events both sides use to fight laytime claims <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>stocks-to-use</dt><dd>ending stocks divided by total use, the market's tension gauge <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>storage tariff</dt><dd>the published charge for commercial storage, quoted in cents per bushel per month or per day, or in dollars per tonne per month <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="9"><dt>substitution spread</dt><dd>the price gap between two competing vegetable oils, which sets the point at which a refiner reformulates from one to the other <span class="gep">ep 9</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>sugar mix</dt><dd>the share of a mill's recoverable sugars turned into sugar rather than ethanol, bounded above by the plant's crystallisation capacity <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>Supramax</dt><dd>a dry bulk vessel of roughly 50,000 to 60,000 dwt, normally carrying its own cranes, working minor bulks and shorter legs <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>temporary storage</dt><dd>ground piles, bunkers and bags used when permanent capacity is full, cheap per bushel to build and expensive per bushel in spoilage and rehandling <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>terminal elevator</dt><dd>large storage at a port, river or rail hub whose business is blending, load-out speed and access rather than farm origination <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="5"><dt>test weight</dt><dd>the density measure telling a miller how much flour comes out of a tonne <span class="gep">ep 5</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>thin market</dt><dd>a market in which the price obtainable depends materially on the size being traded, whatever a single lot is worth in notional terms <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="11"><dt>throughput</dt><dd>the volume moved through a facility in a period, the number that actually pays for a fixed asset because capacity earns nothing standing still <span class="gep">ep 11</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>tick</dt><dd>smallest price increment, a quarter cent per bushel in Chicago grains, worth 12.50 dollars per lot <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>ticker</dt><dd>the short screen code a contract is spoken by, ZW wheat, ZC corn, ZS soybeans, ZM meal, ZL oil, KC coffee, SB sugar, CT cotton <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>time charter</dt><dd>hiring the vessel itself for a period at a price in dollars per day, with the charterer taking speed, weather, port delay and usually fuel <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>time charter equivalent (TCE)</dt><dd>a voyage's economics restated as dollars per day, which is how a shipowner compares one employment against another <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>toll refining</dt><dd>refining someone else's raws for a fee per tonne, which converts the white premium from a trading position into a fixed margin <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>total supply</dt><dd>carry-in plus production plus imports, the top block of a balance sheet <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>total use</dt><dd>domestic use plus exports, the bottom block of a balance sheet <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>trade average</dt><dd>the published mean of analysts' pre-report estimates, and therefore the expectation already contained in the price <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>trend yield</dt><dd>the yield a crop would produce on normal weather, the baseline against which a weather premium is measured <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="15"><dt>unfixed</dt><dd>the state of a price-to-be-fixed contract whose futures leg has not yet been set, so the exposure is still outright <span class="gep now">ep 15</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="3"><dt>variation margin</dt><dd>the daily cash settlement of a position mark to market, paid the same day <span class="gep">ep 3</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>VHP</dt><dd>very high polarisation raw sugar of around 99 degrees, the grade Brazil exports and which trades at a premium to the No. 11 screen <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="10"><dt>voyage charter</dt><dd>hiring a vessel to move a stated cargo between named ports for a price in dollars per tonne, with the owner carrying the voyage and delay risk <span class="gep">ep 10</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="2"><dt>war-risk premium</dt><dd>an insurance surcharge on a vessel's hull value for sailing into a conflict zone, quoted as a percentage <span class="gep">ep 2</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>WASDE</dt><dd>the USDA monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>washed out</dt><dd>offsetting trades cancel each other and only the price difference is settled <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="12"><dt>washed process</dt><dd>coffee with the fruit stripped off before drying, giving a cleaner and more consistent cup <span class="gep">ep 12</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>washout</dt><dd>cancelling two offsetting physical contracts by settling the price difference instead of shipping <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="6"><dt>weather premium</dt><dd>the gap between where a crop trades and where it would trade at trend yield, the price of a distribution of outcomes rather than of a forecast <span class="gep">ep 6</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="4"><dt>weather working day</dt><dd>a laytime day that counts only when weather permits cargo work <span class="gep">ep 4</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="7"><dt>whisper number</dt><dd>the expectation the market is actually trading into a report, which can sit away from the published trade average <span class="gep">ep 7</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="14"><dt>white premium</dt><dd>the London white sugar price less the New York raw sugar price converted to the same unit, which is what the market pays for the act of refining <span class="gep">ep 14</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>work</dt><dd>leave an order resting with a broker <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>work an order</dt><dd>leave an order resting at your price and wait <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div><div class="gterm" data-ep="1"><dt>workable</dt><dd>the quoted price is negotiable <span class="gep">ep 1</span></dd></div></dl><p class="gnone" hidden>No term matches that.</p></div></details></section>
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<a class="epprev" href="ep14.html"><span class="dir">← Previous</span><span class="ept">Sugar: Two Contracts, the Switch and the Refiner</span><span class="epn">Episode 14</span></a>
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<details class="archive"><summary>All episodes<span class="sl">15 so far</span></summary><ol class="arclist"><li><a href="ep01.html"><b>01</b> The Units and the Language of the Desk</a></li><li><a href="ep02.html"><b>02</b> What a Merchant Does, and Why Basis Is the Whole Game</a></li><li><a href="ep03.html"><b>03</b> Futures Plumbing and the Shape of the Curve</a></li><li><a href="ep04.html"><b>04</b> The Physical Chain, End to End</a></li><li><a href="ep05.html"><b>05</b> Wheat: The Map and the Screens</a></li><li><a href="ep06.html"><b>06</b> Corn, Crop Calendars and Weather Risk</a></li><li><a href="ep07.html"><b>07</b> WASDE and Building a Balance Sheet</a></li><li><a href="ep08.html"><b>08</b> The Soybean Complex and the Crush</a></li><li><a href="ep09.html"><b>09</b> Vegetable oils and biofuels</a></li><li><a href="ep10.html"><b>10</b> Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering</a></li><li><a href="ep11.html"><b>11</b> Storage, Elevation and Trade Flows</a></li><li><a href="ep12.html"><b>12</b> Coffee: The Market</a></li><li><a href="ep13.html"><b>13</b> Coffee: Differentials, PTBF and Volatility</a></li><li><a href="ep14.html"><b>14</b> Sugar: Two Contracts, the Switch and the Refiner</a></li><li class="here" aria-current="page"><a href="ep15.html"><b>15</b> Cotton, Rice and Juice</a></li></ol></details>
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var none = document.querySelector('.gnone');
|
|
681
|
+
var pick = 'all';
|
|
682
|
+
function apply(){
|
|
683
|
+
var q = gf ? gf.value.trim().toLowerCase() : '', hits = 0;
|
|
684
|
+
rows.forEach(function(r){
|
|
685
|
+
var on = (pick === 'all' || r.dataset.ep === pick) &&
|
|
686
|
+
(!q || r.textContent.toLowerCase().indexOf(q) > -1);
|
|
687
|
+
r.hidden = !on; if(on) hits++;
|
|
688
|
+
});
|
|
689
|
+
if(none) none.hidden = hits > 0;
|
|
690
|
+
}
|
|
691
|
+
if(gf) gf.addEventListener('input', apply);
|
|
692
|
+
chips.forEach(function(c){
|
|
693
|
+
c.addEventListener('click', function(){
|
|
694
|
+
pick = c.dataset.gep;
|
|
695
|
+
chips.forEach(function(o){ o.classList.toggle('on', o === c); });
|
|
696
|
+
apply();
|
|
697
|
+
});
|
|
698
|
+
});
|
|
699
|
+
}
|
|
700
|
+
|
|
701
|
+
/* printing: paper has no disclosure triangles */
|
|
702
|
+
var reopen = [];
|
|
703
|
+
addEventListener('beforeprint', function(){
|
|
704
|
+
reopen = [].filter.call(document.querySelectorAll('details'), function(d){
|
|
705
|
+
return !d.open;
|
|
706
|
+
});
|
|
707
|
+
reopen.forEach(function(d){ d.open = true; });
|
|
708
|
+
});
|
|
709
|
+
addEventListener('afterprint', function(){
|
|
710
|
+
reopen.forEach(function(d){ d.open = false; });
|
|
711
|
+
reopen = [];
|
|
712
|
+
});
|
|
713
|
+
})();
|
|
714
|
+
</script>
|
|
715
|
+
</body>
|
|
716
|
+
</html>
|
package/ep15_chart1.png
ADDED
|
Binary file
|
package/ep15_chart2.png
ADDED
|
Binary file
|
package/ep15_chart3.png
ADDED
|
Binary file
|