@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.42 → 1.0.43

package/ep07.html

@@ -456,7 +456,7 @@ try{
 <h1>Vocabulary</h1>
 <div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th>Term</th><th>Meaning</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Balance sheet (S&amp;D)</strong></td><td>The one-page supply and demand statement for a crop and a marketing year, which must close</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Marketing year</strong></td><td>The crop&#x27;s own accounting year — September to August for US corn and soybeans, June to May for US wheat</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Carryout</strong></td><td>Ending stocks, spoken as a single word on the desk</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Total supply</strong></td><td>Carry-in plus production plus imports, the top block of the sheet</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Total use</strong></td><td>Domestic use plus exports, the bottom block</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Feed and residual</strong></td><td>The inferred demand line that absorbs both livestock feeding and every measurement error in the sheet</td></tr><tr><td><strong>New crop / old crop</strong></td><td>The marketing year about to begin versus the one ending, priced by different contract months</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Trade average</strong></td><td>The mean of analysts&#x27; pre-report estimates, published in advance, and therefore what is already in the price</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Whisper number</strong></td><td>The expectation the market actually trades, which can sit away from the published trade average</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Crop Production</strong></td><td>The NASS report published alongside WASDE, carrying the survey-based yield and area</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Grain Stocks</strong></td><td>The quarterly survey of physical inventories, from which feed and residual is backed out</td></tr><tr><td><strong>NASS</strong></td><td>USDA&#x27;s National Agricultural Statistics Service, the body that runs the surveys behind the numbers</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Implied disappearance</strong></td><td>Use derived by subtraction rather than measurement, the technique behind the residual lines</td></tr></tbody></table></div>
 <h1>Quiz</h1>
-<p id="q1" class="qq"><strong>Q1.</strong> Build one. A desk runs its own 2026/27 US corn sheet with carry-in of 1.945 bn bu, imports of 25 m bu and harvested area of 88.6 m acres, but uses its own yield of 179.0 bu/ac. It carries domestic use at 13.100 bn and exports at 3.350 bn. Compute production, total supply, ending stocks and stocks-to-use. Then compare the percentage gap between the desk&#x27;s carryout and USDA&#x27;s 1.653 bn with the percentage gap between the two yields, and explain the difference.</p>
+<p id="q1" class="qq"><strong>Q1.</strong> Build one. A desk runs its own 2026/27 US corn sheet with carry-in of 1.945 bn bu, imports of 25 m bu and harvested area of 88.6 m acres, but uses its own yield of 179.0 bu/ac. It carries domestic use at 13.100 bn and exports at 3.350 bn. USDA&#x27;s August sheet, for comparison, has production 16.013 bn and ending stocks 1.653 bn on the same carry-in and imports. Compute the desk&#x27;s production, total supply, ending stocks and stocks-to-use. Then compare the percentage gap between the two carryouts with the percentage gap between the two yields, and explain the difference.</p>
 <p id="q2" class="qq"><strong>Q2.</strong> The quarterly Grain Stocks survey lands 90 m bu below what the trade had modelled, with no change to production or exports. Which line absorbs it, what are the two competing stories for why, and how would you use the futures <em>curve</em> rather than the flat price to work out which story the market believes?</p>
 <p id="q3" class="qq"><strong>Q3.</strong> Going into 12 August the trade carried new-crop corn carryout at roughly 1.725 bn bu. USDA printed 1.653 bn. December corn rose 20¼¢ on the day and closed Monday 17 August at 489½, above its report-day close. Explain why &quot;the report was bullish and the market went up&quot; is a lazy reading of those three sessions, and state precisely what a trader had to be right about to still be paid on Monday.</p>
 <p id="q4" class="qq"><strong>Q4.</strong> Ep 6 said corn&#x27;s demand curve has steps in it. USDA carries corn exports at 3.275 bn bu and domestic use at 13.055 bn. Suppose a rally takes December corn from 489½ to 560 c/bu and nothing else changes. Name the two demand lines that respond first and the direction each moves. Then explain why a balance sheet that leaves demand untouched after a 70-cent rally is internally inconsistent.</p>
@@ -468,6 +468,8 @@ try{
 <details class="soln" id="a1"><summary><span class="qn">Q1</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p>The arithmetic first.</p>
 <div class="tablewrap" tabindex="0" role="region" aria-label="Table, scrolls sideways"><table><thead><tr><th>Line</th><th class="num">Desk</th><th class="num">USDA (Aug)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Carry-in</td><td class="num">1,945</td><td class="num">1,945</td></tr><tr><td>Production</td><td class="num">15,859</td><td class="num">16,013</td></tr><tr><td>Imports</td><td class="num">25</td><td class="num">25</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Total supply</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>17,829</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>17,983</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Domestic use</td><td class="num">13,100</td><td class="num">13,055</td></tr><tr><td>Exports</td><td class="num">3,350</td><td class="num">3,275</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Total use</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>16,450</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>16,330</strong></td></tr><tr><td><strong>Ending stocks</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>1,379</strong></td><td class="num"><strong>1,653</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Stocks-to-use</td><td class="num">8.4%</td><td class="num">10.1%</td></tr></tbody></table></div>
 <p>All figures in million bushels. Production is 88.6 × 179.0 = 15,859. (USDA&#x27;s published 16,013 is about 3 m bu above 88.6 × 180.7 — rounding in the acreage and yield they print. Worth noticing the first time you try to rebuild a published sheet and cannot make it tie.)</p>
+<p>Two lines in that table deserve a word, because they are not the same kind of number. <strong>Imports</strong> are identical at 25 because nobody disputes them: the US imports a rounding error of corn, so both sheets simply carry USDA&#x27;s figure. <strong>Domestic use</strong> differs because it is a view, not a fact — it is the single most argued line on the sheet, and the desk is 45 m bu above USDA on it.</p>
+<p>Note also what you can and cannot derive. USDA&#x27;s <strong>total</strong> use you can back out without being told it: supply 17,983 less ending stocks 1,653 = 16,330. Its split between domestic use and exports you cannot — those two rows are USDA&#x27;s published numbers, shown for reference. The comparison the question asks for only needs the total, which is why it works.</p>
 <p>Now the comparison the question is really asking for. The yields differ by 1.7 bu, or <strong>0.94%</strong>. The carryouts differ by 274 m bu, or <strong>16.6%</strong>. That is a factor of roughly eighteen, not ten, and the extra leverage comes from the demand side: the desk is carrying 120 m bu more use than USDA. Decomposed, the 274 is 154 m of yield-and-rounding and 120 m of demand. The trap the question sets is the assumption that a carryout gap is a crop-view gap. Most of the time it is half a crop view and half a demand view, and only one of those two halves gets discussed on television.</p>
 <p class="backq"><a href="#q1">↑ Back to question 1</a></p></div></details>
 <details class="soln" id="a2"><summary><span class="qn">Q2</span><span class="sl">Reveal the answer</span></summary><div class="solnbody"><p><strong>Feed and residual absorbs it,</strong> and ending stocks falls 90 m bu — from 1.653 to 1.563 bn, taking stocks-to-use from 10.1% to 9.6%. Nothing else in the sheet is allowed to move, because feed and residual is the line derived by subtraction.</p>

package/feed.xml

@@ -20,11 +20,8 @@
     </image>
     <item>
       <title>Ep 14 — Sugar: Two Contracts, the Switch and the Refiner</title>
-      <link>https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep14.html</link>
-      <description><![CDATA[<p>Sugar is quoted twice, one refining step apart, and the gap between the two screens is what the market pays for refining. Then Brazil's mills, where supply is a daily decision between food and fuel, and ethanol parity is the price at which that decision flips.</p><p><a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep14.html">Read this episode, with the charts, the glossary and the quiz &rarr;</a></p>]]></description>
-      <itunes:summary>Sugar is quoted twice, one refining step apart, and the gap between the two screens is what the market pays for refining. Then Brazil's mills, where supply is a daily decision between food and fuel, and ethanol parity is the price at which that decision flips.
-
-Read this episode: https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep14.html</itunes:summary>
+      <description><![CDATA[<p>Sugar is quoted twice, one refining step apart, and the gap between the two screens is what the market pays for refining. Then Brazil's mills, where supply is a daily decision between food and fuel, and ethanol parity is the price at which that decision flips.</p>]]></description>
+      <itunes:summary>Sugar is quoted twice, one refining step apart, and the gap between the two screens is what the market pays for refining. Then Brazil's mills, where supply is a daily decision between food and fuel, and ethanol parity is the price at which that decision flips.</itunes:summary>
       <enclosure url="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep14.mp3" length="9500588" type="audio/mpeg"/>
       <guid isPermaLink="false">https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep14.mp3</guid>
       <pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:10:00 GMT</pubDate>

package/package.json

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
   "name": "@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily",
-  "version": "1.0.42",
-  "description": "Soft Commodity Trading - Ep 14 (episodes 7 and 11 re-narrated with the Gemini voice)",
+  "version": "1.0.43",
+  "description": "Soft Commodity Trading - Ep 14 (ep 7 answer clarified; ep 14 dead page link removed)",
   "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
   "keywords": [
     "podcast",