@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.40 → 1.0.42

package/covered.md

@@ -15,3 +15,4 @@ Running log. Read before writing a new episode: avoid repeating material, and on
 - **Ep 11** (Mon) — *Storage, Elevation and Trade Flows*: Ep 11 — Storage, Elevation and Trade Flows: the elevator as a seller of space rather than a speculator; elevation margin versus basis-and-carry as two separate businesses; storage tariff in cents per bushel per month and shrink as a percentage; the posted bid as a queue-management tool rather than a price; worked example buying corn at 45 under Dec and selling at 15 under Mar with Mar 18 over Dec, restated against one month as a 48c basis gain less 7.5c interest and 3c shrink for 37.5c net on 3m bu; the carry belongs only to whoever has a bin (ep 3 callback); US storage capacity flat at 25.3 bn bu since 2019 against a 27.5 bn trend, on-farm 13.6 and off-farm 11.9, 80% on-farm utilisation at 1 Dec 2025 and ~5% system surplus, tightest since 1988; temporary storage as the cost that floors the basis; blending as the cheapest form change, worked example 40kt at 12.4% and 20kt at 11.2% blending to exactly 12.0% at 244 against a 250 sale for 6 USD/t gross and 3 net = 180,000 on the cargo; why the blender sets the discount; protein moisture and test weight average while aflatoxin, infestation, unapproved events and falling number do not; replacement value and the bottleneck asset as the answer to why merchants rent ships but own elevators. Pulse: Fri 21 Aug closes Dec corn 508.5 +5 (2.5-year high, +25.25 on week), Nov beans 1239.5 +3 (+47 on week), Sep meal 317.70, Sep oil 69.35, Chi Sep wheat 681.5, KC 756.25, MGE 698.25; Pro Farmer final tour corn 173.2 bu/ac and 15.344 bn bu against USDA 180.7, beans 53.3 against 52.7; GEO escalation on the Black Sea — the storage transmission: 90%+ of Russian Azov-Black Sea export capacity offline, three Novorossiysk terminals suspended, Taman since late July, Azov navigation suspended since July, one working deepwater terminal in a basin that moved 46.3 mt last season, ~140 mt harvested, exporters stopped buying, grain backing up inland and 4th-class Russian wheat at ~12,000 roubles/t against 15,000 a year ago — world price up and farmgate price down in the same crop.
 - **Ep 12** (Wed) — *Coffee: The Market*: Arabica and robusta are two different plants on two different exchanges in two different units, and on Monday one settled at 2.2 times the other. Then certified stocks: why 226,242 bags, under half a day of world consumption, can move a global market five percent in a session.
 - **Ep 13** (Fri) — *Coffee: Differentials, PTBF and Volatility*: A coffee contract does not name a price, it names a differential — and an exporter's entire business fits inside eleven cents a pound. Then price-to-be-fixed: how one trade becomes two decisions, and why fixing risk is sold as market risk and settled as credit risk.
+- **Ep 14** (Mon) — *Sugar: Two Contracts, the Switch and the Refiner*: Ep 14 — Sugar: Two Contracts, the Switch and the Refiner: raws vs whites as two screens one refining step apart (No. 11 is 112,000 lb or 50 long tons in c/lb FOB origin, No. 5 is 50 t in USD/t delivered, bridge 22.0462), white premium 133.17 USD/t on Friday; Center-South Brazil as swing supplier pricing a decision rather than a crop; ATR as the unit of that choice with CONSECANA factors 1.0495 kg ATR per kg sugar, 1.6913 per litre hydrous, 1.7651 per litre anhydrous; one tonne of ATR worth 368.87 as sugar against 264.65 as hydrous and 285.71 as anhydrous at Friday prices, sugar ahead by 104.22 or 40 percent; ethanol parity 12.60 c/lb on hydrous and 13.60 on anhydrous against a 17.56 screen, headroom 109 USD/t that must still cover mill-to-port logistics; the switch-is-spent argument, that far above parity a rally pulls no extra Brazilian tonnes and can only ration demand; two demand curves and the fuel floor, moved by the 32 percent anhydrous blend mandate, crude and the real; refiner's margin per tonne of white 520.30 less 1.06 t of raws at 410.36 less 70 refining equals 39.94, and break-even white premium 93.23 at 17.56 raws against 85.87 at 12c because melt loss is a percentage and not a fee; TRADER/ANALYST parity dialogue. Pulse: Fri 28 Aug settles Oct No.11 17.56 minus 0.63 (-3.5%), Oct No.5 520.30 minus 8.50, Sep Chi wheat 767 plus 24.25 at a three-year high, Sep beans 1276.25 plus 19.75, Sep meal 338.20 plus 8.00, Sep corn 512 plus 1.75; sugar still up ~21% on the month after a 14-month high on 18 Aug; supply cuts Brazil CS June sugar -26.3% y/y to 3.903 Mt, Thailand 26/27 9.5 Mt -15.6%, EU+UK 14.98 Mt an eleven-year low, 26/27 flipped from surplus to deficit (ISO -262 kt, Green Pool -3.2 Mt, StoneX -1.7 Mt), screen ~2c above Brazil's ~15.7 c/lb FOB cost of production; GEO/policy read: India opened a 1 Mt duty-free sugar import window to 31 Oct against a standing 100% duty, monsoon 13% below normal through 26 Aug, retail 48 to ~55 rupees/kg, the largest consumer flipping from occasional exporter to buyer, tempered by a permission not being a purchase with one forecaster at no more than 500 kt clearing.