@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.35 → 1.0.37

package/ep12.md

@@ -1,209 +0,0 @@
-# Market pulse
-
-**Coffee led every agricultural market on Monday, and the reason was an inventory number, not a crop number.**
-
-| Market | Contract | Price | Change |
-|---|---|---|---|
-| Arabica (ICE) | Sep 26 | 377.75 c/lb | +19.00c / +5.05% |
-| Arabica (ICE) | Dec 26 | 341.65 c/lb | +19.00c / +5.89% |
-| Robusta (London) | Sep 26 | ~$3,790/t | +$192 / +5.34% |
-| Corn (CBOT) | Dec 26 | 515.50 c/bu | +1.4% |
-| Soybeans (CBOT) | Nov 26 | 1224.25 c/bu | −1.2% |
-
-September arabica settled at a seven-and-a-half-month high, and it settled 36.10 cents **over** December. That inverse is the story. Certified arabica stocks at the exchange fell to 226,242 bags, a two-and-three-quarter-year low, and Monday was the first day of the delivery notice period for the spot contract. Certified robusta stocks went the other way, to an eight-and-three-quarter-month high. Same drink, opposite inventory stories.
-
-The crop background pulls the same direction for arabica and the opposite direction for robusta. Brazil was 81.1% harvested at 14 August against 86.1% a year earlier, and the arabica harvest specifically was 86% done against 95%. Vietnam is running a four-year-high robusta crop near 1.76 million tonnes, with January-to-July exports up 21.1% year on year. USDA still forecasts record world output of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.
-
-```chart
-{"type":"bar","unit":"% change on the day","title":"Coffee did a month in a day","caption":"Both coffees moved more than five percent while the grains moved one. A thin deliverable float is what lets a small market travel that far in one session.","source":"ICE and CBOT settlements, Monday 24 August 2026","x":["Arabica Sep","Robusta Sep","Corn Dec","Beans Nov"],"series":[{"name":"Change","values":[5.05,5.34,1.4,-1.2]}]}
-```
-
-**The policy read: India has lifted its wheat export ban.** The mechanism matters more than the headline. A ban removes a seller from the world market; lifting it puts one back. Every tonne India offers into South and Southeast Asia is a tonne a buyer does not have to lift from the Black Sea, France or Australia. So the first place it lands is not Chicago — it is the destination differential in Asia, and then the origin basis at whichever origin loses the business. That runs directly against the other half of the wheat map: Ukraine shipped 188,000 t last week, down 11.4% week on week, with renewed strikes on Odesa and Pivdennyi. Capacity constrained on one side of the world, capacity released on the other.
-
-# Key takeaways
-
-- There is no such thing as "the coffee price". Arabica and robusta are different plants on different exchanges in different units, and on Monday arabica traded at 2.2 times robusta on a common tonne basis.
-- One cent per pound is $22.05 per tonne. That single factor is what lets a New York arabica price be compared with a London robusta price at all.
-- Certified stock is not world inventory. At 226,242 bags it is under half a day of world consumption — but it is the entire float the front month can be delivered from.
-- The exchange fixes a premium or discount for each deliverable origin and never moves it. The physical differential for that origin moves daily. That difference is the valve that makes coffee walk into and out of the warehouse.
-- Low certified stocks usually mean roasters are paying more than the exchange, not that the coffee does not exist.
-- Certification guarantees a grade — defect count, screen size, an untainted cup. It does not guarantee quality anyone wants, and coffee has sat certified for years because nobody would pay to take it out.
-- A 36-cent inverse against a full carry of roughly plus 8 cents is a 44-cent gap. That gap is the price of owning the deliverable thing today, not a forecast of anything.
-
-# Vocabulary
-
-| Term | What it means |
-|---|---|
-| **arabica** | The high-altitude coffee species, aromatic and acidic, lower-yielding and more fragile; priced in New York |
-| **robusta** | The low-altitude species, hardier and higher-yielding, about double the caffeine and a flatter cup; priced in London |
-| **Coffee C (KC)** | The ICE arabica contract: 37,500 lb, quoted in US cents per pound, tick 0.05c worth $18.75 |
-| **Robusta contract (RC)** | The London arabica counterpart for robusta: 10 tonnes, quoted in dollars per tonne, tick $1 worth $10 |
-| **certified stock** | Coffee sampled, graded and stamped as deliverable against the futures contract, sitting in an exchange-licensed warehouse |
-| **licensed warehouse** | A storage facility the exchange approves to hold deliverable stock, at named ports only |
-| **grading** | The exchange's pass-fail examination of a sample: defect count, screen size and a clean cup |
-| **defect count** | The number of black, broken, insect-damaged or foreign items in a fixed sample weight, the primary grading measure |
-| **screen size** | Bean size measured by the mesh it will not fall through, part of the deliverable specification |
-| **washed process** | Fruit stripped off the bean before drying, giving a cleaner and more consistent cup |
-| **natural process** | Fruit left on the bean through drying, giving a sweeter, heavier and more variable cup |
-| **deliverable origin differential** | The fixed premium or discount the contract assigns to each approved origin, unchanged whatever the physical market does |
-| **delivery notice period** | The window in which shorts may tender certified stock against the expiring contract |
-| **soluble solids** | The share of the bean that dissolves in water, higher in robusta, which is why robusta dominates instant coffee |
-
-# Quiz
-
-**Q1.** You hold 300,000 lb — eight lots — of a washed Honduran arabica already sitting at an exchange-approved port in Europe. September arabica is 377.75, December is 341.65, both in cents per pound.
-
-You have two ways out.
-
-*Route A:* a roaster will take it at **plus 14.00 against December**, December shipment.
-
-*Route B:* certify it and deliver against September. The contract's fixed differential for that origin is **minus 1.00 cent**. Certification, handling and in-warehouse costs are **2.20 cents per pound**, paid whether or not it passes. If it fails to grade, you have to sell it into the physical market at **6.00 cents under December**, and the 2.20 is already spent.
-
-Value both routes in cents per pound and in dollars on the position. Then, if you put the chance of it grading at 85%, say which route you take — and work out the grading probability at which you would be indifferent.
-
-**Q2.** USDA forecasts record world coffee output of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, and certified arabica stocks are at a two-and-three-quarter-year low of 226,242 bags. Explain how both can be true at once.
-
-**Q3.** It is October. An elevator is 95% full and the December–March corn spread is 22 cents. Should it push its posted harvest bid up or down, and why?
-
-**Q4.** A US policy change lifts soybean oil demand by one billion pounds. Roughly how much additional soybean meal does that force into the market?
-
-**Conversion drill.** You are quoted a margin of 18 cents per bushel on 60,000 tonnes of soybeans. What is the cheque?
-
-# SOLUTIONS (spoilers)
-
-**A1.** The trap is that the two routes are priced against **different months**. "Plus 14" is a December-based number; the certification route sells September. You cannot compare a differential with a differential here — convert both to a flat price first.
-
-*Route A, sell to the roaster:*
-
-| Line | c/lb |
-|---|---|
-| December futures | 341.65 |
-| Roaster differential | +14.00 |
-| **Net** | **355.65** |
-
-On 300,000 lb that is **$1,066,950**.
-
-*Route B, certify and deliver, if it grades:*
-
-| Line | c/lb |
-|---|---|
-| September futures | 377.75 |
-| Contract origin differential | −1.00 |
-| Certification, handling, warehouse | −2.20 |
-| **Net** | **374.55** |
-
-On 300,000 lb that is **$1,123,650** — better by 18.90 c/lb, or **$56,700**.
-
-*Route B if it fails to grade:* you sell at December minus 6.00, so 335.65, and the 2.20 is gone anyway. Net 333.45 c/lb, or **$1,000,350** — worse than Route A by 22.20 c/lb, or **$66,600**.
-
-*The decision at 85%:*
-
-0.85 × $56,700 + 0.15 × (−$66,600) = $48,195 − $9,990 = **+$38,205**
-
-Certify. Note that the fixed origin differential quietly ate a cent of the inverse before you started, and the certification cost ate another 2.20 — the 36-cent spread was never 36 cents to you.
-
-*Indifference:* solve p × 56,700 = (1 − p) × 66,600. That gives p = 66,600 ÷ 123,300 = **54.0%**. Below a 54% chance of grading you sell to the roaster. That is the real lesson: a wide inverse does not decide the trade on its own, because the grading risk sits on your side of it.
-
-**A2.** Because a record crop and an empty warehouse measure two different things. World output of 189.7 million bags is the flow of coffee produced in a year. Certified stock is not a share of that flow — it is the small pool of coffee that has been shipped to a licensed warehouse, sampled and graded, and left there because nobody offered enough to take it out. At 226,242 bags it is roughly ten hours of world consumption.
-
-Coffee goes into that pool only when the physical differential a roaster will pay drops below the exchange's fixed differential for the origin. When roasters bid up, as they do when a big origin runs late, the coffee never reaches the warehouse in the first place — it goes straight to a plant. So certified stocks can drain to a multi-year low in the same month a record crop is forecast, because the number is a differential signal, not a supply statistic. The record crop, incidentally, is Brazil-weighted and running late; slow does not mean small.
-
-**A3.** Down — it should widen the basis and push the bid lower.
-
-The 22-cent carry looks like free money, and it is, but only to whoever has a bin. A full elevator has nothing to store the corn in, so it cannot buy grain, hold it, and sell the March against it. What it can do is charge for the space it does not have, and the way an elevator says "stop bringing me corn" is with the posted bid.
-
-That is the point about the posted bid: it is a queue-management tool, not a price forecast. A 95%-full house in October is at the moment when trucks arrive faster than they can be loaded out, so the bid drops until the queue clears or until somebody piles the corn on the ground. Temporary storage is what floors the basis — the bid can only fall to the point where ground piling becomes the cheaper option. Nothing in that decision expresses a view on the price of corn.
-
-**A4.** About **four billion pounds**.
-
-A bushel of soybeans yields roughly 11 lb of oil and 44 lb of meal, so the two products come out in a fixed ratio of about one to four. Oil demand cannot be met without crushing beans, and crushing beans produces meal whether or not anyone wanted it. One billion extra pounds of oil demand therefore drags in roughly four billion pounds of meal.
-
-This is why a crusher captures far less of an oil rally than the oil chart suggests. The incremental meal has to be sold into a market that did not ask for it, and the meal price falls to clear it. The oil leg gains and the meal leg gives part of it back — which is the whole reason the crush margin, not the oil price, is what a crusher actually trades.
-
-**Conversion drill.** **$396,900.**
-
-Two steps. First cents per bushel to dollars per tonne: soybeans run about 36.74 bushels to the tonne, so 18 c/bu × 36.74 ÷ 100 = **$6.61/t**. Then dollars per tonne to whole-cargo money: ×6, decimal four places, so 6.61 → 39.7 → **$396,900** on 60,000 t.
-
-The instinct worth building is the second step. A quarter of a cent per bushel is about 9 cents a tonne, which is $5,400 on a Panamax — which is why a desk will argue for ten minutes over a quarter cent.
-
-# The written edition
-
-## There is no such thing as the coffee price
-
-Two plants, two exchanges, two currencies, two units.
-
-**Arabica** grows high and cool. It is fragile, lower-yielding per tree, and produces the aromatic, acidic cup sold in a specialty shop. **Robusta** grows low, hot and wet. It is hardier, yields more, carries roughly double the caffeine, and gives a heavier, flatter cup. Robusta also delivers more **soluble solids** per kilo, which is why it dominates instant coffee.
-
-They do not even quote in the same units. Arabica prices in New York in US cents per pound, on a 37,500 lb contract — about 17 tonnes, or roughly 283 bags of 60 kg. A tick is five hundredths of a cent, worth $18.75. Robusta prices in London in dollars per tonne, ten tonnes to a lot, a one-dollar tick worth $10.
-
-So a desk converts before it can compare. One cent per pound is $22.05 per tonne. Run Monday's settlements through it:
-
-| | Settlement | In $/t |
-|---|---|---|
-| Arabica Sep | 377.75 c/lb | $8,327 |
-| Robusta Sep | — | ~$3,790 |
-
-Arabica is trading at 2.2 times robusta. That gap is not a mistake, it is a switch. A soluble manufacturer or a supermarket blender can shift a few percent of a blend between the two species, and when arabica gets rich enough they do. Substitution is what eventually caps the spread — the same mechanism that prices corn against feed wheat, running on cup profile instead of protein.
-
-```chart
-{"type":"bar","unit":"USD per tonne","title":"Two coffees, one word","caption":"On a common tonne basis arabica settled at 2.2 times robusta. Roasters and soluble plants blend across that gap, and the blending is what eventually caps it.","source":"ICE arabica Sep and London robusta Sep settlements, 24 August 2026, converted at 1 c/lb = $22.05/t","x":["Arabica Sep","Robusta Sep"],"series":[{"name":"Settlement","values":[8327,3790]}]}
-```
-
-The second division inside the species is **processing**, and it is a form change like any other. **Washed** coffee has the fruit stripped off before drying: cleaner, brighter, more consistent, and the norm in Colombia, Central America and most of East Africa. **Natural** coffee dries with the fruit still attached: sweeter, heavier, more variable, and the norm in most of Brazil. The same species processed two ways is two different products with two different buyers, and the market pays for the transformation.
-
-## Certified stock is not inventory
-
-Certified stock is coffee that has been shipped to an exchange-licensed warehouse, sampled, examined by a licensed grader and stamped as deliverable against the futures contract. Monday's figure was 226,242 bags.
-
-Set that against the world.
-
-| | Bags |
-|---|---|
-| World output forecast, 2026/27 | 189,700,000 |
-| World consumption per day | ~520,000 |
-| Certified arabica stock | 226,242 |
-
-The entire visible exchange stock is about ten hours of world coffee drinking. A market that size should not be able to move a global commodity six percent in a session — and it does, every time, for a reason that has nothing to do with supply.
-
-Certified stock is not supply. It is the **deliverable float**. The front month is a promise to deliver from that pile and only from that pile. At roughly 283 bags to a lot, 226,242 bags is about 800 lots of deliverable coffee. A single mid-sized roaster could stand for that. Monday was the first day of the delivery notice period for the spot contract, small volumes were tendered against a thin float, and the front month went up five percent while the deferred went up less.
-
-## The number of the day
-
-September settled 36.10 cents over December.
-
-Put a lot around it. 36.10 cents on 37,500 lb is **$13,537.50 per lot, for three months**.
-
-Now price what carrying that coffee actually costs. Financing 377.75 c/lb for three months at 8% is 7.56 cents. Warehousing and insurance are a fraction of that. So in a comfortable market December should trade something like 8 cents *over* September. It is trading 36 cents *under*.
-
-```chart
-{"type":"waterfall","unit":"c/lb, Dec minus Sep","title":"Full carry versus the tape","caption":"A comfortable market puts December about eight cents over September. It is thirty-six cents under. That forty-four cent gap is what the deliverable float is worth.","source":"ICE settlements 24 August 2026; carry computed on 377.75 c/lb at 8 percent for three months","steps":[{"label":"Full carry","value":7.6,"kind":"base"},{"label":"Scarcity of deliverable stock","value":-43.7},{"label":"Actual Dec–Sep","kind":"total"}]}
-```
-
-Episode 3 called an inverse the market screaming for immediate supply. This is what a scream looks like in a market whose float is 800 lots.
-
-## What the desk is actually arguing about
-
-Here is the decision in its natural habitat.
-
-> **TRADER:** I've got two thousand bags of Honduras sitting in Antwerp. Do I certify it?
-> **BROKER:** What's the roaster paying you?
-> **TRADER:** Plus fourteen.
-> **BROKER:** Board's paying you thirty-six to give it up now. Grade it.
-> **TRADER:** If it grades. If it fails I've moved it for nothing.
-
-Neither of them mentions the price of coffee. They are comparing two prices for the same bag: the roaster's differential, and the exchange's inverse. And the trader's last line is the whole risk — grading is pass-fail, and a failed lot has been shipped, handled and paid for on the way to a warehouse it now has to leave.
-
-## The valve
-
-This is the mechanism worth taking away, because it turns certified stocks from a statistic into a signal.
-
-The contract lists which origins are deliverable, and it assigns each one a **fixed** premium or discount. Fixed as in written into the contract and unchanged whatever happens. The physical differential for that same origin moves every day, with the crop, the freight and the roaster's order book.
-
-Those two numbers are a valve:
-
-- When the physical differential falls **below** the exchange's fixed number, the coffee is worth more delivered to the exchange than sold to a roaster. It walks into the warehouse. Certified stocks build.
-- When the physical differential rises **above** it, the roaster outbids the exchange. It walks back out. Certified stocks drain.
-
-So a two-and-three-quarter-year low in certified stocks does not mean the world is short of coffee. It means roasters are currently paying more than the exchange for the origins that are deliverable — which is exactly what you would expect with Brazil's arabica harvest running nine points behind last year.
-
-And it clarifies what certification actually guarantees. It guarantees a **grade**: a defect count, a screen size, a cup that is not tainted. It does not guarantee that the coffee is good, or fresh, or that anyone wants it. Certified coffee has sat in warehouses for years at a time because no roaster would pay enough to justify taking it out — a pile of perfectly deliverable coffee that the physical market had priced at nothing.

package/ep12.script.txt

@@ -1,97 +0,0 @@
-Every green coffee bean the New York exchange can actually deliver against its front month fits in about nine hundred containers. ||| 0.5
-That is the whole visible float. Against a world crop of a hundred and ninety million bags. ||| 0.7
-This is Soft Commodity Trading, episode twelve. Coffee, and why the same word covers two completely different markets. ||| 0.8
-First, the tape. ||| 0.5
-Coffee led everything on Monday. ||| 0.35
-September arabica on I C E settled up nineteen cents at three seventy-seven seventy-five. Three dollars seventy-eight a pound. ||| 0.4
-That is a five percent day and a seven and a half month high. ||| 0.5
-December arabica settled three forty-one sixty-five. So September trades thirty-six cents over December. ||| 0.5
-Robusta in London rallied too, up a hundred and ninety-two dollars, five point three percent, to around three thousand seven hundred and ninety a tonne. ||| 0.6
-Now the number underneath the rally. ||| 0.35
-Certified arabica stocks at the exchange fell to two hundred and twenty-six thousand bags. A two and three quarter year low. ||| 0.5
-Certified robusta stocks went the other way, to an eight and three quarter month high. ||| 0.5
-Same drink. Opposite inventory stories. Hold that thought. ||| 0.6
-Brazil is running late. Eighty-one percent harvested at the middle of August, against eighty-six a year ago. ||| 0.4
-The arabica harvest specifically is eighty-six percent done against ninety-five last year. ||| 0.5
-Vietnam is the mirror image. Robusta output near one point seven six million tonnes, a four year high, and exports up twenty-one percent so far this year. ||| 0.6
-In the grains, corn kept grinding higher. December corn five fifteen and a half, up one point four percent. ||| 0.4
-November beans went the other way, twelve twenty-four and a quarter, down one point two percent. ||| 0.6
-The policy story this morning is India. ||| 0.35
-India has lifted its wheat export ban. ||| 0.5
-Think about the mechanism, not the headline. ||| 0.4
-A ban removes a seller from the world market. Lifting it adds one back. ||| 0.4
-Every tonne India offers is a tonne somebody does not have to buy from the Black Sea, from France, or from Australia. ||| 0.5
-So the first place it shows up is not Chicago. It is the destination differential in South and Southeast Asia. ||| 0.5
-Meanwhile Ukraine shipped a hundred and eighty-eight thousand tonnes last week, down eleven percent, with strikes again on Odesa and Pivdennyi. ||| 0.5
-Capacity constrained on one side of the world, capacity released on the other. That is the wheat map right now. ||| 0.8
-Now. Coffee. ||| 0.5
-Start with the thing that trips everyone up. ||| 0.35
-There is no such thing as the coffee price. ||| 0.5
-There are two plants, two exchanges, two currencies, two units. ||| 0.6
-Arabica is the fussy one. High altitude, cooler nights, more fragile, lower yield per tree. Aromatic, acidic, and what you drink in a specialty shop. ||| 0.5
-Robusta grows low, hot and wet. Hardier, higher yielding, roughly double the caffeine, and a heavier, flatter cup. ||| 0.5
-Robusta also gives more soluble solids per kilo, which is why it dominates instant coffee. ||| 0.6
-Arabica prices in New York, in U S cents per pound. The contract is thirty-seven thousand five hundred pounds. ||| 0.4
-That is two hundred and fifty bags of sixty kilos. A tick is five hundredths of a cent, worth eighteen dollars seventy-five. ||| 0.5
-Robusta prices in London, in dollars per tonne, ten tonnes a lot, a dollar tick worth ten dollars. ||| 0.5
-Two different units for the same shelf. So a desk converts before it can compare. ||| 0.4
-Cents a pound times twenty-two, near enough, gives you dollars a tonne. ||| 0.5
-Run Monday's numbers through it. Arabica, eight thousand three hundred dollars a tonne. Robusta, three thousand seven hundred and ninety. ||| 0.6
-Arabica is trading at more than twice robusta. ||| 0.5
-That gap is not a mistake. It is a switch. ||| 0.4
-A soluble manufacturer or a supermarket blender can move a few percent of the blend between the two. ||| 0.4
-When arabica gets rich enough, they do. And that substitution is what eventually caps the spread. ||| 0.7
-Second thing. Processing. ||| 0.4
-Washed coffee has the fruit stripped off before drying. Cleaner, brighter, more consistent. Colombia, Central America, most of East Africa. ||| 0.4
-Natural coffee dries with the fruit still on. Sweeter, heavier, more variable. That is most of Brazil. ||| 0.5
-Same species can be either. The processing is a form change, and form changes are paid for. ||| 0.7
-Now the piece that actually moved the market on Monday. ||| 0.5
-Certified stocks. ||| 0.4
-Certified stock is coffee that has been shipped to a licensed warehouse, sampled, graded by a licensed grader, and stamped as deliverable against the futures contract. ||| 0.5
-Here is what people get wrong about it. ||| 0.4
-Certified stock is not world inventory. It is not even close. ||| 0.5
-Two hundred and twenty-six thousand bags, against world consumption of roughly a hundred and ninety million bags a year. ||| 0.5
-That is under half a day of world coffee drinking. ||| 0.6
-So why does a market of that size care? ||| 0.4
-Because certified stock is not supply. It is the deliverable float. ||| 0.5
-The front month is a promise to deliver from that pile, and only from that pile. ||| 0.5
-Two hundred and twenty-six thousand bags is about nine hundred lots. ||| 0.5
-A single medium sized roaster could stand for that. ||| 0.6
-And Monday was the first day of the delivery notice period for the spot contract. ||| 0.5
-Thin float, delivery window open, small volumes tendered. The front month went up five percent and the deferred went up less. ||| 0.7
-Which brings us to the number of the day. ||| 0.5
-September over December, thirty-six cents a pound. ||| 0.5
-Put a lot around it. Thirty-six cents on thirty-seven and a half thousand pounds is thirteen and a half thousand dollars. ||| 0.5
-Per lot. For three months. ||| 0.6
-Compare that with what carrying the coffee actually costs. ||| 0.4
-Money on a hundred and forty thousand dollar lot for three months is a few thousand. Warehousing and insurance, a fraction of that. ||| 0.5
-Call full carry something like seven or eight cents, positive. ||| 0.5
-So the market is more than forty cents the wrong way round. ||| 0.6
-In episode three we called an inverse the market screaming for immediate supply. This is what a scream looks like in a small market. ||| 0.7
-Here is how that decision sounds on a desk. ||| 0.5
-TRADER: I've got two thousand bags of Honduras sitting in Antwerp. Do I certify it? ||| 0.25
-BROKER: What's the roaster paying you? ||| 0.25
-TRADER: Plus fourteen. ||| 0.25
-BROKER: Board's paying you thirty-six to give it up now. Grade it. ||| 0.25
-TRADER: If it grades. If it fails I've moved it for nothing. ||| 0.6
-Listen to what they are actually arguing about. ||| 0.4
-Not the price of coffee. Two prices for the same bag. ||| 0.5
-The roaster's differential, and the exchange's inverse. ||| 0.6
-And that is the mechanism that makes certified stocks a price signal rather than a supply statistic. ||| 0.5
-The contract lists which origins are deliverable, and it fixes a premium or a discount for each one. Fixed. It does not move. ||| 0.5
-The physical differential for that same origin moves every day. ||| 0.5
-When the physical differential falls below the exchange's fixed number, that coffee walks into the warehouse. ||| 0.4
-When it rises above, it walks back out to a roaster. ||| 0.6
-So certified stocks are low not because there is no coffee. ||| 0.4
-They are low because roasters are paying more than the exchange for it. ||| 0.6
-Which tells you what certification does and does not guarantee. ||| 0.4
-It guarantees a grade. A defect count, a screen size, a cup that is not tainted. ||| 0.4
-It does not guarantee that the coffee is any good, and it does not guarantee anybody wants it. ||| 0.5
-Coffee has sat certified for years because nobody would pay to take it out. ||| 0.6
-Takeaway. ||| 0.5
-Arabica and robusta are two markets wearing one name. Different plants, different exchanges, different units, and a spread that works as a substitution switch. ||| 0.5
-Certified stock is the deliverable float, not the world's coffee. Read it as a differential signal. ||| 0.5
-An inverse in a thin market is not a forecast. It is the cost of not owning the deliverable thing today. ||| 0.5
-And a fixed exchange differential against a moving physical one is what makes coffee walk in and out of the warehouse. ||| 0.7
-Next time, the other half of coffee. Origin differentials, price to be fixed contracts, and what a frost rally actually does to a physical book. ||| 0.5
-Four questions in the notes, and the worked solutions with them. Number one is the long one. ||| 0.5