@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.34 → 1.0.36

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 - **Ep 9** (Thu) — *Vegetable oils and biofuels*: Palm, soy, rape and sun trade as one system, and the spread between them is the switch that rations demand. Then biofuels: how a mandate turns a political decision into a standing bid for a crop, and why a fuel policy is always a protein policy.
 - **Ep 10** (Fri) — *Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering*: Freight and chartering (see ep10 notes). Pulse: Thu 20 Aug CBOT closes, corn led with Dec above five dollars, Pro Farmer Illinois corn 184.2 vs 199.6 year-ago, BDI 2791; Pulse: Sea of Azov closed to Russian grain, read as a vessel-class constraint rather than a tonnage constraint.
 - **Ep 11** (Mon) — *Storage, Elevation and Trade Flows*: Ep 11 — Storage, Elevation and Trade Flows: the elevator as a seller of space rather than a speculator; elevation margin versus basis-and-carry as two separate businesses; storage tariff in cents per bushel per month and shrink as a percentage; the posted bid as a queue-management tool rather than a price; worked example buying corn at 45 under Dec and selling at 15 under Mar with Mar 18 over Dec, restated against one month as a 48c basis gain less 7.5c interest and 3c shrink for 37.5c net on 3m bu; the carry belongs only to whoever has a bin (ep 3 callback); US storage capacity flat at 25.3 bn bu since 2019 against a 27.5 bn trend, on-farm 13.6 and off-farm 11.9, 80% on-farm utilisation at 1 Dec 2025 and ~5% system surplus, tightest since 1988; temporary storage as the cost that floors the basis; blending as the cheapest form change, worked example 40kt at 12.4% and 20kt at 11.2% blending to exactly 12.0% at 244 against a 250 sale for 6 USD/t gross and 3 net = 180,000 on the cargo; why the blender sets the discount; protein moisture and test weight average while aflatoxin, infestation, unapproved events and falling number do not; replacement value and the bottleneck asset as the answer to why merchants rent ships but own elevators. Pulse: Fri 21 Aug closes Dec corn 508.5 +5 (2.5-year high, +25.25 on week), Nov beans 1239.5 +3 (+47 on week), Sep meal 317.70, Sep oil 69.35, Chi Sep wheat 681.5, KC 756.25, MGE 698.25; Pro Farmer final tour corn 173.2 bu/ac and 15.344 bn bu against USDA 180.7, beans 53.3 against 52.7; GEO escalation on the Black Sea — the storage transmission: 90%+ of Russian Azov-Black Sea export capacity offline, three Novorossiysk terminals suspended, Taman since late July, Azov navigation suspended since July, one working deepwater terminal in a basin that moved 46.3 mt last season, ~140 mt harvested, exporters stopped buying, grain backing up inland and 4th-class Russian wheat at ~12,000 roubles/t against 15,000 a year ago — world price up and farmgate price down in the same crop.
-- **Ep 12** (Wed) — *Coffee: The Market*: Ep 12 — Coffee: The Market: arabica versus robusta as two species on two exchanges in two units (KC 37,500 lb in c/lb with an 18.75 dollar tick, London robusta 10 t in USD/t with a 10 dollar tick), 1 c/lb = 22.05 USD/t, Monday's arabica 377.75 c/lb = 8,327 USD/t against robusta ~3,790 = 2.2x, substitution by soluble and supermarket blenders as the cap on the spread; washed versus natural processing as a form change; certified stock as the deliverable float rather than world inventory, 226,242 bags = ~800 lots = under half a day of world consumption against a 189.7m bag crop; the valve between the contract's fixed deliverable-origin differential and the daily physical differential as what makes coffee walk into and out of the warehouse; what certification guarantees (grade, defect count, screen size, clean cup) and what it does not; Sep over Dec 36.10 c/lb = 13,537.50 per lot against a full carry of about +7.6c, a 44c gap, ep3 inverse callback; TRADER/BROKER dialogue on certifying versus selling to a roaster; Q1 worked example certify-or-sell on 300,000 lb with roaster at Dec +14.00 versus September delivery at origin differential -1.00 and 2.20 of costs, 85 percent grading gives +38,205 EV and 54.0 percent indifference. Pulse: coffee led with Sep arabica 377.75 +5.05 percent at a 7.5-month high and Dec 341.65, robusta Sep ~3,790 +5.34 percent, certified arabica 226,242 bags a 2.75-year low against certified robusta at an 8.75-month high, first day of the spot delivery notice period, Brazil 81.1 percent harvested at 14 Aug vs 86.1 and arabica 86 vs 95, Vietnam 1.76 MMT four-year high with Jan-Jul exports +21.1 percent, USDA world 189.7m bags; Dec corn 515.50 +1.4 percent and Nov beans 1224.25 -1.2 percent; GEO - India lifted its wheat export ban, traced through destination differentials in South and Southeast Asia and the origin basis at whoever loses the business, against Ukraine 188 kt -11.4 percent w/w with renewed strikes on Odesa and Pivdennyi.
+- **Ep 12** (Wed) — *Coffee: The Market*: Arabica and robusta are two different plants on two different exchanges in two different units, and on Monday one settled at 2.2 times the other. Then certified stocks: why 226,242 bags, under half a day of world consumption, can move a global market five percent in a session.

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+<title>Soft Commodity Trading — Ep 12: Coffee: The Market</title>
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+<div style="display:none;max-height:0;overflow:hidden;mso-hide:all;">Arabica and robusta are two different plants on two different exchanges in two different units — and 226,242 bags of certified stock, under half a day of world consumption, is what the front month can actually be delivered from.</div>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="background:#ece7db;">
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+<table role="presentation" width="600" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center" style="width:100%;max-width:600px;background:#faf7f1;border:1px solid #e3ddd2;">
+<tr><td style="padding:30px 28px 24px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 6px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Soft Commodity Trading</p><p style="margin:0 0 14px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.14em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#8b8375;">Episode 12 · Wednesday 26 August 2026 · 12 min 09</p><h1 style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:29px;line-height:1.2;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">Coffee: The Market</h1><p style="margin:0 0 22px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:17px;line-height:1.5;color:#4a4238;">Arabica and robusta are two different plants on two different exchanges in two different units — and 226,242 bags of certified stock, under half a day of world consumption, is what the front month can actually be delivered from.</p><table role="presentation" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td bgcolor="#1d4032" style="border-radius:6px;"><a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12.mp3" style="display:inline-block;padding:14px 28px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:15px;font-weight:bold;color:#faf7f1;text-decoration:none;border-radius:6px;">▶  Listen — 12 min</a></td></tr></table></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:0 28px 22px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:1.6;color:#4a4238;"><a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12.html" style="color:#1d4032;font-weight:bold;">Read this episode online &rarr;</a><span style="color:#8b8375;"> &nbsp;·&nbsp; charts, the quiz and the running glossary</span></p></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:0 28px;background:#faf7f1;"><table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td height="1" style="height:1px;line-height:1px;font-size:1px;background:#e3ddd2;">&nbsp;</td></tr></table></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Market pulse</p><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Coffee led every agricultural market on Monday, and the reason was an inventory number, not a crop number.</strong></p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Market</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Contract</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Price</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Change</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Arabica (ICE)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep 26</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">377.75 c/lb</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+19.00c / +5.05%</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Arabica (ICE)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Dec 26</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">341.65 c/lb</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+19.00c / +5.89%</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Robusta (London)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Sep 26</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">~$3,790/t</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+$192 / +5.34%</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Corn (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Dec 26</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">515.50 c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#215c44;font-weight:bold;">+1.4%</span></td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Soybeans (CBOT)</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Nov 26</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">1224.25 c/bu</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><span style="color:#8a2f2f;font-weight:bold;">−1.2%</span></td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">September arabica settled at a seven-and-a-half-month high, and it settled 36.10 cents <strong>over</strong> December. That inverse is the story. Certified arabica stocks at the exchange fell to 226,242 bags, a two-and-three-quarter-year low, and Monday was the first day of the delivery notice period for the spot contract. Certified robusta stocks went the other way, to an eight-and-three-quarter-month high. Same drink, opposite inventory stories.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The crop background pulls the same direction for arabica and the opposite direction for robusta. Brazil was 81.1% harvested at 14 August against 86.1% a year earlier, and the arabica harvest specifically was 86% done against 95%. Vietnam is running a four-year-high robusta crop near 1.76 million tonnes, with January-to-July exports up 21.1% year on year. USDA still forecasts record world output of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="margin:6px 0 22px;"><tr><td align="center" style="border:1px solid #e3ddd2;background:#faf7f1;padding:10px;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12_chart1.png" width="522" alt="Coffee did a month in a day — Both coffees moved more than five percent while the grains moved one. A thin deliverable float is what lets a small market travel that far in one session. — ICE and CBOT settlements, Monday 24 August 2026" title="Coffee did a month in a day — Both coffees moved more than five percent while the grains moved one. A thin deliverable float is what lets a small market travel that far in one session. — ICE and CBOT settlements, Monday 24 August 2026" style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:522px;height:auto;border:0;outline:none;text-decoration:none;"></td></tr></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>The policy read: India has lifted its wheat export ban.</strong> The mechanism matters more than the headline. A ban removes a seller from the world market; lifting it puts one back. Every tonne India offers into South and Southeast Asia is a tonne a buyer does not have to lift from the Black Sea, France or Australia. So the first place it lands is not Chicago — it is the destination differential in Asia, and then the origin basis at whichever origin loses the business. That runs directly against the other half of the wheat map: Ukraine shipped 188,000 t last week, down 11.4% week on week, with renewed strikes on Odesa and Pivdennyi. Capacity constrained on one side of the world, capacity released on the other.</p><ul style="margin:0 0 16px;padding-left:22px;"><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">There is no such thing as &quot;the coffee price&quot;. Arabica and robusta are different plants on different exchanges in different units, and on Monday arabica traded at 2.2 times robusta on a common tonne basis.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">One cent per pound is $22.05 per tonne. That single factor is what lets a New York arabica price be compared with a London robusta price at all.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Certified stock is not world inventory. At 226,242 bags it is under half a day of world consumption — but it is the entire float the front month can be delivered from.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The exchange fixes a premium or discount for each deliverable origin and never moves it. The physical differential for that origin moves daily. That difference is the valve that makes coffee walk into and out of the warehouse.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Low certified stocks usually mean roasters are paying more than the exchange, not that the coffee does not exist.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Certification guarantees a grade — defect count, screen size, an untainted cup. It does not guarantee quality anyone wants, and coffee has sat certified for years because nobody would pay to take it out.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A 36-cent inverse against a full carry of roughly plus 8 cents is a 44-cent gap. That gap is the price of owning the deliverable thing today, not a forecast of anything.</li></ul>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Term</th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">What it means</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>arabica</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The high-altitude coffee species, aromatic and acidic, lower-yielding and more fragile; priced in New York</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>robusta</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The low-altitude species, hardier and higher-yielding, about double the caffeine and a flatter cup; priced in London</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Coffee C (KC)</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The ICE arabica contract: 37,500 lb, quoted in US cents per pound, tick 0.05c worth $18.75</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Robusta contract (RC)</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The London arabica counterpart for robusta: 10 tonnes, quoted in dollars per tonne, tick $1 worth $10</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>certified stock</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Coffee sampled, graded and stamped as deliverable against the futures contract, sitting in an exchange-licensed warehouse</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>licensed warehouse</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">A storage facility the exchange approves to hold deliverable stock, at named ports only</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>grading</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The exchange&#x27;s pass-fail examination of a sample: defect count, screen size and a clean cup</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>defect count</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The number of black, broken, insect-damaged or foreign items in a fixed sample weight, the primary grading measure</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>screen size</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Bean size measured by the mesh it will not fall through, part of the deliverable specification</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>washed process</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Fruit stripped off the bean before drying, giving a cleaner and more consistent cup</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>natural process</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">Fruit left on the bean through drying, giving a sweeter, heavier and more variable cup</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>deliverable origin differential</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The fixed premium or discount the contract assigns to each approved origin, unchanged whatever the physical market does</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>delivery notice period</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The window in which shorts may tender certified stock against the expiring contract</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>soluble solids</strong></td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">The share of the bean that dissolves in water, higher in robusta, which is why robusta dominates instant coffee</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:0 28px;background:#faf7f1;"><table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td height="1" style="height:1px;line-height:1px;font-size:1px;background:#e3ddd2;">&nbsp;</td></tr></table></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#f4efe4;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Conversion drill 12 of 12</p><h3 style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:19px;line-height:1.3;font-weight:normal;color:#16110c;">Dollars per tonne → whole-cargo money</h3><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Rule:</strong> a Panamax is roughly 60,000 t; a Supramax roughly 55,000 t; a Handysize roughly 30,000 t</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Fast method:</strong> $/t → cargo: ×6, then move the decimal four places (×60,000). For a $ per bushel figure, convert to $/t first.</p>
+<ul style="margin:0 0 16px;padding-left:22px;"><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">$11/t margin on a Panamax → 66 → <strong>$660,000</strong></li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">$2/t of demurrage exposure → <strong>$120,000</strong></li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">30¢/bu on soybeans → $11/t → <strong>$660,000</strong> on 60,000 t</li></ul>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Why it matters:</strong> the instinct that turns a small per-tonne number into the size of the cheque is what makes a desk argue over a quarter of a cent.</p></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:0 28px;background:#faf7f1;"><table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td height="1" style="height:1px;line-height:1px;font-size:1px;background:#e3ddd2;">&nbsp;</td></tr></table></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Quiz</p><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q1.</strong> You hold 300,000 lb — eight lots — of a washed Honduran arabica already sitting at an exchange-approved port in Europe. September arabica is 377.75, December is 341.65, both in cents per pound.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">You have two ways out.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><em>Route A:</em> a roaster will take it at <strong>plus 14.00 against December</strong>, December shipment.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><em>Route B:</em> certify it and deliver against September. The contract&#x27;s fixed differential for that origin is <strong>minus 1.00 cent</strong>. Certification, handling and in-warehouse costs are <strong>2.20 cents per pound</strong>, paid whether or not it passes. If it fails to grade, you have to sell it into the physical market at <strong>6.00 cents under December</strong>, and the 2.20 is already spent.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Value both routes in cents per pound and in dollars on the position. Then, if you put the chance of it grading at 85%, say which route you take — and work out the grading probability at which you would be indifferent.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q2.</strong> USDA forecasts record world coffee output of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, and certified arabica stocks are at a two-and-three-quarter-year low of 226,242 bags. Explain how both can be true at once.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q3.</strong> It is October. An elevator is 95% full and the December–March corn spread is 22 cents. Should it push its posted harvest bid up or down, and why?</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Q4.</strong> A US policy change lifts soybean oil demand by one billion pounds. Roughly how much additional soybean meal does that force into the market?</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Conversion drill.</strong> You are quoted a margin of 18 cents per bushel on 60,000 tonnes of soybeans. What is the cheque?</p></td></tr>
+<tr><td align="center" style="padding:20px 28px;background:#f4efe4;border-top:1px solid #e3ddd2;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;"><p style="margin:0;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.12em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#8a2f2f;">Solutions below &mdash; answer first</p></td></tr>
+<tr><td height="240" style="height:240px;line-height:240px;font-size:1px;background:#faf7f1;">&nbsp;</td></tr>
+<tr><td height="240" style="height:240px;line-height:240px;font-size:1px;background:#faf7f1;">&nbsp;</td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:10px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Solutions</p><p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A1.</strong> The trap is that the two routes are priced against <strong>different months</strong>. &quot;Plus 14&quot; is a December-based number; the certification route sells September. You cannot compare a differential with a differential here — convert both to a flat price first.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><em>Route A, sell to the roaster:</em></p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Line</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">c/lb</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">December futures</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">341.65</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Roaster differential</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">+14.00</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Net</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>355.65</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">On 300,000 lb that is <strong>$1,066,950</strong>.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><em>Route B, certify and deliver, if it grades:</em></p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Line</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">c/lb</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">September futures</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">377.75</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Contract origin differential</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">−1.00</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Certification, handling, warehouse</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">−2.20</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;"><strong>Net</strong></td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;"><strong>374.55</strong></td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">On 300,000 lb that is <strong>$1,123,650</strong> — better by 18.90 c/lb, or <strong>$56,700</strong>.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><em>Route B if it fails to grade:</em> you sell at December minus 6.00, so 335.65, and the 2.20 is gone anyway. Net 333.45 c/lb, or <strong>$1,000,350</strong> — worse than Route A by 22.20 c/lb, or <strong>$66,600</strong>.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><em>The decision at 85%:</em></p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">0.85 × $56,700 + 0.15 × (−$66,600) = $48,195 − $9,990 = <strong>+$38,205</strong></p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Certify. Note that the fixed origin differential quietly ate a cent of the inverse before you started, and the certification cost ate another 2.20 — the 36-cent spread was never 36 cents to you.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><em>Indifference:</em> solve p × 56,700 = (1 − p) × 66,600. That gives p = 66,600 ÷ 123,300 = <strong>54.0%</strong>. Below a 54% chance of grading you sell to the roaster. That is the real lesson: a wide inverse does not decide the trade on its own, because the grading risk sits on your side of it.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A2.</strong> Because a record crop and an empty warehouse measure two different things. World output of 189.7 million bags is the flow of coffee produced in a year. Certified stock is not a share of that flow — it is the small pool of coffee that has been shipped to a licensed warehouse, sampled and graded, and left there because nobody offered enough to take it out. At 226,242 bags it is roughly ten hours of world consumption.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Coffee goes into that pool only when the physical differential a roaster will pay drops below the exchange&#x27;s fixed differential for the origin. When roasters bid up, as they do when a big origin runs late, the coffee never reaches the warehouse in the first place — it goes straight to a plant. So certified stocks can drain to a multi-year low in the same month a record crop is forecast, because the number is a differential signal, not a supply statistic. The record crop, incidentally, is Brazil-weighted and running late; slow does not mean small.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A3.</strong> Down — it should widen the basis and push the bid lower.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The 22-cent carry looks like free money, and it is, but only to whoever has a bin. A full elevator has nothing to store the corn in, so it cannot buy grain, hold it, and sell the March against it. What it can do is charge for the space it does not have, and the way an elevator says &quot;stop bringing me corn&quot; is with the posted bid.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">That is the point about the posted bid: it is a queue-management tool, not a price forecast. A 95%-full house in October is at the moment when trucks arrive faster than they can be loaded out, so the bid drops until the queue clears or until somebody piles the corn on the ground. Temporary storage is what floors the basis — the bid can only fall to the point where ground piling becomes the cheaper option. Nothing in that decision expresses a view on the price of corn.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>A4.</strong> About <strong>four billion pounds</strong>.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">A bushel of soybeans yields roughly 11 lb of oil and 44 lb of meal, so the two products come out in a fixed ratio of about one to four. Oil demand cannot be met without crushing beans, and crushing beans produces meal whether or not anyone wanted it. One billion extra pounds of oil demand therefore drags in roughly four billion pounds of meal.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">This is why a crusher captures far less of an oil rally than the oil chart suggests. The incremental meal has to be sold into a market that did not ask for it, and the meal price falls to clear it. The oil leg gains and the meal leg gives part of it back — which is the whole reason the crush margin, not the oil price, is what a crusher actually trades.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Conversion drill.</strong> <strong>$396,900.</strong></p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Two steps. First cents per bushel to dollars per tonne: soybeans run about 36.74 bushels to the tonne, so 18 c/bu × 36.74 ÷ 100 = <strong>$6.61/t</strong>. Then dollars per tonne to whole-cargo money: ×6, decimal four places, so 6.61 → 39.7 → <strong>$396,900</strong> on 60,000 t.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The instinct worth building is the second step. A quarter of a cent per bushel is about 9 cents a tonne, which is $5,400 on a Panamax — which is why a desk will argue for ten minutes over a quarter cent.</p></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:0 28px;background:#faf7f1;"><table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td height="1" style="height:1px;line-height:1px;font-size:1px;background:#e3ddd2;">&nbsp;</td></tr></table></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">The episode, in writing</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Two plants, two exchanges, two currencies, two units.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;"><strong>Arabica</strong> grows high and cool. It is fragile, lower-yielding per tree, and produces the aromatic, acidic cup sold in a specialty shop. <strong>Robusta</strong> grows low, hot and wet. It is hardier, yields more, carries roughly double the caffeine, and gives a heavier, flatter cup. Robusta also delivers more <strong>soluble solids</strong> per kilo, which is why it dominates instant coffee.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">They do not even quote in the same units. Arabica prices in New York in US cents per pound, on a 37,500 lb contract — about 17 tonnes, or roughly 283 bags of 60 kg. A tick is five hundredths of a cent, worth $18.75. Robusta prices in London in dollars per tonne, ten tonnes to a lot, a one-dollar tick worth $10.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">So a desk converts before it can compare. One cent per pound is $22.05 per tonne. Run Monday&#x27;s settlements through it:</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;"></th><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Settlement</th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">In $/t</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Arabica Sep</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">377.75 c/lb</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">$8,327</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Robusta Sep</td><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">—</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">~$3,790</td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Arabica is trading at 2.2 times robusta. That gap is not a mistake, it is a switch. A soluble manufacturer or a supermarket blender can shift a few percent of a blend between the two species, and when arabica gets rich enough they do. Substitution is what eventually caps the spread — the same mechanism that prices corn against feed wheat, running on cup profile instead of protein.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="margin:6px 0 22px;"><tr><td align="center" style="border:1px solid #e3ddd2;background:#faf7f1;padding:10px;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12_chart2.png" width="522" alt="Two coffees, one word — On a common tonne basis arabica settled at 2.2 times robusta. Roasters and soluble plants blend across that gap, and the blending is what eventually caps it. — ICE arabica Sep and London robusta Sep settlements, 24 August 2026, converted at 1 c/lb = $22.05/t" title="Two coffees, one word — On a common tonne basis arabica settled at 2.2 times robusta. Roasters and soluble plants blend across that gap, and the blending is what eventually caps it. — ICE arabica Sep and London robusta Sep settlements, 24 August 2026, converted at 1 c/lb = $22.05/t" style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:522px;height:auto;border:0;outline:none;text-decoration:none;"></td></tr></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The second division inside the species is <strong>processing</strong>, and it is a form change like any other. <strong>Washed</strong> coffee has the fruit stripped off before drying: cleaner, brighter, more consistent, and the norm in Colombia, Central America and most of East Africa. <strong>Natural</strong> coffee dries with the fruit still attached: sweeter, heavier, more variable, and the norm in most of Brazil. The same species processed two ways is two different products with two different buyers, and the market pays for the transformation.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Certified stock is coffee that has been shipped to an exchange-licensed warehouse, sampled, examined by a licensed grader and stamped as deliverable against the futures contract. Monday&#x27;s figure was 226,242 bags.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Set that against the world.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin:0 0 20px;"><thead><tr><th align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:left;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;"></th><th align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#4a4238;text-align:right;padding:0 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #16110c;">Bags</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">World output forecast, 2026/27</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">189,700,000</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">World consumption per day</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">~520,000</td></tr><tr><td align="left" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;font-weight:bold;">Certified arabica stock</td><td align="right" style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#16110c;padding:9px 8px 9px 0;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid #e3ddd2;vertical-align:top;">226,242</td></tr></tbody></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The entire visible exchange stock is about ten hours of world coffee drinking. A market that size should not be able to move a global commodity six percent in a session — and it does, every time, for a reason that has nothing to do with supply.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Certified stock is not supply. It is the <strong>deliverable float</strong>. The front month is a promise to deliver from that pile and only from that pile. At roughly 283 bags to a lot, 226,242 bags is about 800 lots of deliverable coffee. A single mid-sized roaster could stand for that. Monday was the first day of the delivery notice period for the spot contract, small volumes were tendered against a thin float, and the front month went up five percent while the deferred went up less.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">September settled 36.10 cents over December.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Put a lot around it. 36.10 cents on 37,500 lb is <strong>$13,537.50 per lot, for three months</strong>.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Now price what carrying that coffee actually costs. Financing 377.75 c/lb for three months at 8% is 7.56 cents. Warehousing and insurance are a fraction of that. So in a comfortable market December should trade something like 8 cents <em>over</em> September. It is trading 36 cents <em>under</em>.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="margin:6px 0 22px;"><tr><td align="center" style="border:1px solid #e3ddd2;background:#faf7f1;padding:10px;"><img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12_chart3.png" width="522" alt="Full carry versus the tape — A comfortable market puts December about eight cents over September. It is thirty-six cents under. That forty-four cent gap is what the deliverable float is worth. — ICE settlements 24 August 2026; carry computed on 377.75 c/lb at 8 percent for three months" title="Full carry versus the tape — A comfortable market puts December about eight cents over September. It is thirty-six cents under. That forty-four cent gap is what the deliverable float is worth. — ICE settlements 24 August 2026; carry computed on 377.75 c/lb at 8 percent for three months" style="display:block;width:100%;max-width:522px;height:auto;border:0;outline:none;text-decoration:none;"></td></tr></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Episode 3 called an inverse the market screaming for immediate supply. This is what a scream looks like in a market whose float is 800 lots.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Here is the decision in its natural habitat.</p>
+<table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="margin:0 0 20px;"><tr><td style="border-left:3px solid #a8813c;padding:4px 0 4px 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.55;font-style:italic;color:#4a4238;"><strong>TRADER:</strong> I&#x27;ve got two thousand bags of Honduras sitting in Antwerp. Do I certify it?<br><strong>BROKER:</strong> What&#x27;s the roaster paying you?<br><strong>TRADER:</strong> Plus fourteen.<br><strong>BROKER:</strong> Board&#x27;s paying you thirty-six to give it up now. Grade it.<br><strong>TRADER:</strong> If it grades. If it fails I&#x27;ve moved it for nothing.</td></tr></table>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Neither of them mentions the price of coffee. They are comparing two prices for the same bag: the roaster&#x27;s differential, and the exchange&#x27;s inverse. And the trader&#x27;s last line is the whole risk — grading is pass-fail, and a failed lot has been shipped, handled and paid for on the way to a warehouse it now has to leave.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">This is the mechanism worth taking away, because it turns certified stocks from a statistic into a signal.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">The contract lists which origins are deliverable, and it assigns each one a <strong>fixed</strong> premium or discount. Fixed as in written into the contract and unchanged whatever happens. The physical differential for that same origin moves every day, with the crop, the freight and the roaster&#x27;s order book.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">Those two numbers are a valve:</p>
+<ul style="margin:0 0 16px;padding-left:22px;"><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">When the physical differential falls <strong>below</strong> the exchange&#x27;s fixed number, the coffee is worth more delivered to the exchange than sold to a roaster. It walks into the warehouse. Certified stocks build.</li><li style="margin:0 0 9px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">When the physical differential rises <strong>above</strong> it, the roaster outbids the exchange. It walks back out. Certified stocks drain.</li></ul>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">So a two-and-three-quarter-year low in certified stocks does not mean the world is short of coffee. It means roasters are currently paying more than the exchange for the origins that are deliverable — which is exactly what you would expect with Brazil&#x27;s arabica harvest running nine points behind last year.</p>
+<p style="margin:0 0 16px;font-family:Georgia,'Times New Roman',Times,serif;font-size:16px;line-height:1.62;color:#16110c;">And it clarifies what certification actually guarantees. It guarantees a <strong>grade</strong>: a defect count, a screen size, a cup that is not tainted. It does not guarantee that the coffee is good, or fresh, or that anyone wants it. Certified coffee has sat in warehouses for years at a time because no roaster would pay enough to justify taking it out — a pile of perfectly deliverable coffee that the physical market had priced at nothing.</p></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:0 28px;background:#faf7f1;"><table role="presentation" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td height="1" style="height:1px;line-height:1px;font-size:1px;background:#e3ddd2;">&nbsp;</td></tr></table></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:24px 28px 4px;background:#faf7f1;"><p style="margin:0 0 12px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:11px;line-height:1.4;font-weight:bold;letter-spacing:.16em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#a8813c;">Glossary</p><p style="margin:0;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.6;color:#4a4238;">Every unit and expression the show has introduced lives on the episode page, and it stays up to date. <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12.html#glossary" style="color:#1d4032;">Open the glossary &rarr;</a></p></td></tr>
+<tr><td style="padding:22px 28px 30px;background:#ece7db;border-top:1px solid #e3ddd2;"><p style="margin:0 0 6px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:1.7;color:#4a4238;"><strong>Soft Commodity Trading</strong> &mdash; a daily briefing on physical commodity trading.</p><p style="margin:0;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:1.7;color:#8b8375;"><a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/index.html" style="color:#4a4238;">All episodes</a> &nbsp;·&nbsp; <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/feed.xml" style="color:#4a4238;">Subscribe by RSS</a> &nbsp;·&nbsp; <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12.html" style="color:#4a4238;">This episode online</a></p></td></tr>
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