@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.32 → 1.0.34

package/covered.md

@@ -12,3 +12,5 @@ Running log. Read before writing a new episode: avoid repeating material, and on
 - **Ep 8** (Wed) — *The Soybean Complex and the Crush*: One seed, three markets: beans, meal and oil, and the processing margin that runs the industry. Board crush arithmetic step by step, why the plant never earns the screen number, and where a crusher's real optionality sits.
 - **Ep 9** (Thu) — *Vegetable oils and biofuels*: Palm, soy, rape and sun trade as one system, and the spread between them is the switch that rations demand. Then biofuels: how a mandate turns a political decision into a standing bid for a crop, and why a fuel policy is always a protein policy.
 - **Ep 10** (Fri) — *Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering*: Freight and chartering (see ep10 notes). Pulse: Thu 20 Aug CBOT closes, corn led with Dec above five dollars, Pro Farmer Illinois corn 184.2 vs 199.6 year-ago, BDI 2791; Pulse: Sea of Azov closed to Russian grain, read as a vessel-class constraint rather than a tonnage constraint.
+- **Ep 11** (Mon) — *Storage, Elevation and Trade Flows*: Ep 11 — Storage, Elevation and Trade Flows: the elevator as a seller of space rather than a speculator; elevation margin versus basis-and-carry as two separate businesses; storage tariff in cents per bushel per month and shrink as a percentage; the posted bid as a queue-management tool rather than a price; worked example buying corn at 45 under Dec and selling at 15 under Mar with Mar 18 over Dec, restated against one month as a 48c basis gain less 7.5c interest and 3c shrink for 37.5c net on 3m bu; the carry belongs only to whoever has a bin (ep 3 callback); US storage capacity flat at 25.3 bn bu since 2019 against a 27.5 bn trend, on-farm 13.6 and off-farm 11.9, 80% on-farm utilisation at 1 Dec 2025 and ~5% system surplus, tightest since 1988; temporary storage as the cost that floors the basis; blending as the cheapest form change, worked example 40kt at 12.4% and 20kt at 11.2% blending to exactly 12.0% at 244 against a 250 sale for 6 USD/t gross and 3 net = 180,000 on the cargo; why the blender sets the discount; protein moisture and test weight average while aflatoxin, infestation, unapproved events and falling number do not; replacement value and the bottleneck asset as the answer to why merchants rent ships but own elevators. Pulse: Fri 21 Aug closes Dec corn 508.5 +5 (2.5-year high, +25.25 on week), Nov beans 1239.5 +3 (+47 on week), Sep meal 317.70, Sep oil 69.35, Chi Sep wheat 681.5, KC 756.25, MGE 698.25; Pro Farmer final tour corn 173.2 bu/ac and 15.344 bn bu against USDA 180.7, beans 53.3 against 52.7; GEO escalation on the Black Sea — the storage transmission: 90%+ of Russian Azov-Black Sea export capacity offline, three Novorossiysk terminals suspended, Taman since late July, Azov navigation suspended since July, one working deepwater terminal in a basin that moved 46.3 mt last season, ~140 mt harvested, exporters stopped buying, grain backing up inland and 4th-class Russian wheat at ~12,000 roubles/t against 15,000 a year ago — world price up and farmgate price down in the same crop.
+- **Ep 12** (Wed) — *Coffee: The Market*: Ep 12 — Coffee: The Market: arabica versus robusta as two species on two exchanges in two units (KC 37,500 lb in c/lb with an 18.75 dollar tick, London robusta 10 t in USD/t with a 10 dollar tick), 1 c/lb = 22.05 USD/t, Monday's arabica 377.75 c/lb = 8,327 USD/t against robusta ~3,790 = 2.2x, substitution by soluble and supermarket blenders as the cap on the spread; washed versus natural processing as a form change; certified stock as the deliverable float rather than world inventory, 226,242 bags = ~800 lots = under half a day of world consumption against a 189.7m bag crop; the valve between the contract's fixed deliverable-origin differential and the daily physical differential as what makes coffee walk into and out of the warehouse; what certification guarantees (grade, defect count, screen size, clean cup) and what it does not; Sep over Dec 36.10 c/lb = 13,537.50 per lot against a full carry of about +7.6c, a 44c gap, ep3 inverse callback; TRADER/BROKER dialogue on certifying versus selling to a roaster; Q1 worked example certify-or-sell on 300,000 lb with roaster at Dec +14.00 versus September delivery at origin differential -1.00 and 2.20 of costs, 85 percent grading gives +38,205 EV and 54.0 percent indifference. Pulse: coffee led with Sep arabica 377.75 +5.05 percent at a 7.5-month high and Dec 341.65, robusta Sep ~3,790 +5.34 percent, certified arabica 226,242 bags a 2.75-year low against certified robusta at an 8.75-month high, first day of the spot delivery notice period, Brazil 81.1 percent harvested at 14 Aug vs 86.1 and arabica 86 vs 95, Vietnam 1.76 MMT four-year high with Jan-Jul exports +21.1 percent, USDA world 189.7m bags; Dec corn 515.50 +1.4 percent and Nov beans 1224.25 -1.2 percent; GEO - India lifted its wheat export ban, traced through destination differentials in South and Southeast Asia and the origin basis at whoever loses the business, against Ukraine 188 kt -11.4 percent w/w with renewed strikes on Odesa and Pivdennyi.

package/ep12.md

@@ -0,0 +1,209 @@
+# Market pulse
+
+**Coffee led every agricultural market on Monday, and the reason was an inventory number, not a crop number.**
+
+| Market | Contract | Price | Change |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Arabica (ICE) | Sep 26 | 377.75 c/lb | +19.00c / +5.05% |
+| Arabica (ICE) | Dec 26 | 341.65 c/lb | +19.00c / +5.89% |
+| Robusta (London) | Sep 26 | ~$3,790/t | +$192 / +5.34% |
+| Corn (CBOT) | Dec 26 | 515.50 c/bu | +1.4% |
+| Soybeans (CBOT) | Nov 26 | 1224.25 c/bu | −1.2% |
+
+September arabica settled at a seven-and-a-half-month high, and it settled 36.10 cents **over** December. That inverse is the story. Certified arabica stocks at the exchange fell to 226,242 bags, a two-and-three-quarter-year low, and Monday was the first day of the delivery notice period for the spot contract. Certified robusta stocks went the other way, to an eight-and-three-quarter-month high. Same drink, opposite inventory stories.
+
+The crop background pulls the same direction for arabica and the opposite direction for robusta. Brazil was 81.1% harvested at 14 August against 86.1% a year earlier, and the arabica harvest specifically was 86% done against 95%. Vietnam is running a four-year-high robusta crop near 1.76 million tonnes, with January-to-July exports up 21.1% year on year. USDA still forecasts record world output of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27.
+
+```chart
+{"type":"bar","unit":"% change on the day","title":"Coffee did a month in a day","caption":"Both coffees moved more than five percent while the grains moved one. A thin deliverable float is what lets a small market travel that far in one session.","source":"ICE and CBOT settlements, Monday 24 August 2026","x":["Arabica Sep","Robusta Sep","Corn Dec","Beans Nov"],"series":[{"name":"Change","values":[5.05,5.34,1.4,-1.2]}]}
+```
+
+**The policy read: India has lifted its wheat export ban.** The mechanism matters more than the headline. A ban removes a seller from the world market; lifting it puts one back. Every tonne India offers into South and Southeast Asia is a tonne a buyer does not have to lift from the Black Sea, France or Australia. So the first place it lands is not Chicago — it is the destination differential in Asia, and then the origin basis at whichever origin loses the business. That runs directly against the other half of the wheat map: Ukraine shipped 188,000 t last week, down 11.4% week on week, with renewed strikes on Odesa and Pivdennyi. Capacity constrained on one side of the world, capacity released on the other.
+
+# Key takeaways
+
+- There is no such thing as "the coffee price". Arabica and robusta are different plants on different exchanges in different units, and on Monday arabica traded at 2.2 times robusta on a common tonne basis.
+- One cent per pound is $22.05 per tonne. That single factor is what lets a New York arabica price be compared with a London robusta price at all.
+- Certified stock is not world inventory. At 226,242 bags it is under half a day of world consumption — but it is the entire float the front month can be delivered from.
+- The exchange fixes a premium or discount for each deliverable origin and never moves it. The physical differential for that origin moves daily. That difference is the valve that makes coffee walk into and out of the warehouse.
+- Low certified stocks usually mean roasters are paying more than the exchange, not that the coffee does not exist.
+- Certification guarantees a grade — defect count, screen size, an untainted cup. It does not guarantee quality anyone wants, and coffee has sat certified for years because nobody would pay to take it out.
+- A 36-cent inverse against a full carry of roughly plus 8 cents is a 44-cent gap. That gap is the price of owning the deliverable thing today, not a forecast of anything.
+
+# Vocabulary
+
+| Term | What it means |
+|---|---|
+| **arabica** | The high-altitude coffee species, aromatic and acidic, lower-yielding and more fragile; priced in New York |
+| **robusta** | The low-altitude species, hardier and higher-yielding, about double the caffeine and a flatter cup; priced in London |
+| **Coffee C (KC)** | The ICE arabica contract: 37,500 lb, quoted in US cents per pound, tick 0.05c worth $18.75 |
+| **Robusta contract (RC)** | The London arabica counterpart for robusta: 10 tonnes, quoted in dollars per tonne, tick $1 worth $10 |
+| **certified stock** | Coffee sampled, graded and stamped as deliverable against the futures contract, sitting in an exchange-licensed warehouse |
+| **licensed warehouse** | A storage facility the exchange approves to hold deliverable stock, at named ports only |
+| **grading** | The exchange's pass-fail examination of a sample: defect count, screen size and a clean cup |
+| **defect count** | The number of black, broken, insect-damaged or foreign items in a fixed sample weight, the primary grading measure |
+| **screen size** | Bean size measured by the mesh it will not fall through, part of the deliverable specification |
+| **washed process** | Fruit stripped off the bean before drying, giving a cleaner and more consistent cup |
+| **natural process** | Fruit left on the bean through drying, giving a sweeter, heavier and more variable cup |
+| **deliverable origin differential** | The fixed premium or discount the contract assigns to each approved origin, unchanged whatever the physical market does |
+| **delivery notice period** | The window in which shorts may tender certified stock against the expiring contract |
+| **soluble solids** | The share of the bean that dissolves in water, higher in robusta, which is why robusta dominates instant coffee |
+
+# Quiz
+
+**Q1.** You hold 300,000 lb — eight lots — of a washed Honduran arabica already sitting at an exchange-approved port in Europe. September arabica is 377.75, December is 341.65, both in cents per pound.
+
+You have two ways out.
+
+*Route A:* a roaster will take it at **plus 14.00 against December**, December shipment.
+
+*Route B:* certify it and deliver against September. The contract's fixed differential for that origin is **minus 1.00 cent**. Certification, handling and in-warehouse costs are **2.20 cents per pound**, paid whether or not it passes. If it fails to grade, you have to sell it into the physical market at **6.00 cents under December**, and the 2.20 is already spent.
+
+Value both routes in cents per pound and in dollars on the position. Then, if you put the chance of it grading at 85%, say which route you take — and work out the grading probability at which you would be indifferent.
+
+**Q2.** USDA forecasts record world coffee output of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, and certified arabica stocks are at a two-and-three-quarter-year low of 226,242 bags. Explain how both can be true at once.
+
+**Q3.** It is October. An elevator is 95% full and the December–March corn spread is 22 cents. Should it push its posted harvest bid up or down, and why?
+
+**Q4.** A US policy change lifts soybean oil demand by one billion pounds. Roughly how much additional soybean meal does that force into the market?
+
+**Conversion drill.** You are quoted a margin of 18 cents per bushel on 60,000 tonnes of soybeans. What is the cheque?
+
+# SOLUTIONS (spoilers)
+
+**A1.** The trap is that the two routes are priced against **different months**. "Plus 14" is a December-based number; the certification route sells September. You cannot compare a differential with a differential here — convert both to a flat price first.
+
+*Route A, sell to the roaster:*
+
+| Line | c/lb |
+|---|---|
+| December futures | 341.65 |
+| Roaster differential | +14.00 |
+| **Net** | **355.65** |
+
+On 300,000 lb that is **$1,066,950**.
+
+*Route B, certify and deliver, if it grades:*
+
+| Line | c/lb |
+|---|---|
+| September futures | 377.75 |
+| Contract origin differential | −1.00 |
+| Certification, handling, warehouse | −2.20 |
+| **Net** | **374.55** |
+
+On 300,000 lb that is **$1,123,650** — better by 18.90 c/lb, or **$56,700**.
+
+*Route B if it fails to grade:* you sell at December minus 6.00, so 335.65, and the 2.20 is gone anyway. Net 333.45 c/lb, or **$1,000,350** — worse than Route A by 22.20 c/lb, or **$66,600**.
+
+*The decision at 85%:*
+
+0.85 × $56,700 + 0.15 × (−$66,600) = $48,195 − $9,990 = **+$38,205**
+
+Certify. Note that the fixed origin differential quietly ate a cent of the inverse before you started, and the certification cost ate another 2.20 — the 36-cent spread was never 36 cents to you.
+
+*Indifference:* solve p × 56,700 = (1 − p) × 66,600. That gives p = 66,600 ÷ 123,300 = **54.0%**. Below a 54% chance of grading you sell to the roaster. That is the real lesson: a wide inverse does not decide the trade on its own, because the grading risk sits on your side of it.
+
+**A2.** Because a record crop and an empty warehouse measure two different things. World output of 189.7 million bags is the flow of coffee produced in a year. Certified stock is not a share of that flow — it is the small pool of coffee that has been shipped to a licensed warehouse, sampled and graded, and left there because nobody offered enough to take it out. At 226,242 bags it is roughly ten hours of world consumption.
+
+Coffee goes into that pool only when the physical differential a roaster will pay drops below the exchange's fixed differential for the origin. When roasters bid up, as they do when a big origin runs late, the coffee never reaches the warehouse in the first place — it goes straight to a plant. So certified stocks can drain to a multi-year low in the same month a record crop is forecast, because the number is a differential signal, not a supply statistic. The record crop, incidentally, is Brazil-weighted and running late; slow does not mean small.
+
+**A3.** Down — it should widen the basis and push the bid lower.
+
+The 22-cent carry looks like free money, and it is, but only to whoever has a bin. A full elevator has nothing to store the corn in, so it cannot buy grain, hold it, and sell the March against it. What it can do is charge for the space it does not have, and the way an elevator says "stop bringing me corn" is with the posted bid.
+
+That is the point about the posted bid: it is a queue-management tool, not a price forecast. A 95%-full house in October is at the moment when trucks arrive faster than they can be loaded out, so the bid drops until the queue clears or until somebody piles the corn on the ground. Temporary storage is what floors the basis — the bid can only fall to the point where ground piling becomes the cheaper option. Nothing in that decision expresses a view on the price of corn.
+
+**A4.** About **four billion pounds**.
+
+A bushel of soybeans yields roughly 11 lb of oil and 44 lb of meal, so the two products come out in a fixed ratio of about one to four. Oil demand cannot be met without crushing beans, and crushing beans produces meal whether or not anyone wanted it. One billion extra pounds of oil demand therefore drags in roughly four billion pounds of meal.
+
+This is why a crusher captures far less of an oil rally than the oil chart suggests. The incremental meal has to be sold into a market that did not ask for it, and the meal price falls to clear it. The oil leg gains and the meal leg gives part of it back — which is the whole reason the crush margin, not the oil price, is what a crusher actually trades.
+
+**Conversion drill.** **$396,900.**
+
+Two steps. First cents per bushel to dollars per tonne: soybeans run about 36.74 bushels to the tonne, so 18 c/bu × 36.74 ÷ 100 = **$6.61/t**. Then dollars per tonne to whole-cargo money: ×6, decimal four places, so 6.61 → 39.7 → **$396,900** on 60,000 t.
+
+The instinct worth building is the second step. A quarter of a cent per bushel is about 9 cents a tonne, which is $5,400 on a Panamax — which is why a desk will argue for ten minutes over a quarter cent.
+
+# The written edition
+
+## There is no such thing as the coffee price
+
+Two plants, two exchanges, two currencies, two units.
+
+**Arabica** grows high and cool. It is fragile, lower-yielding per tree, and produces the aromatic, acidic cup sold in a specialty shop. **Robusta** grows low, hot and wet. It is hardier, yields more, carries roughly double the caffeine, and gives a heavier, flatter cup. Robusta also delivers more **soluble solids** per kilo, which is why it dominates instant coffee.
+
+They do not even quote in the same units. Arabica prices in New York in US cents per pound, on a 37,500 lb contract — about 17 tonnes, or roughly 283 bags of 60 kg. A tick is five hundredths of a cent, worth $18.75. Robusta prices in London in dollars per tonne, ten tonnes to a lot, a one-dollar tick worth $10.
+
+So a desk converts before it can compare. One cent per pound is $22.05 per tonne. Run Monday's settlements through it:
+
+| | Settlement | In $/t |
+|---|---|---|
+| Arabica Sep | 377.75 c/lb | $8,327 |
+| Robusta Sep | — | ~$3,790 |
+
+Arabica is trading at 2.2 times robusta. That gap is not a mistake, it is a switch. A soluble manufacturer or a supermarket blender can shift a few percent of a blend between the two species, and when arabica gets rich enough they do. Substitution is what eventually caps the spread — the same mechanism that prices corn against feed wheat, running on cup profile instead of protein.
+
+```chart
+{"type":"bar","unit":"USD per tonne","title":"Two coffees, one word","caption":"On a common tonne basis arabica settled at 2.2 times robusta. Roasters and soluble plants blend across that gap, and the blending is what eventually caps it.","source":"ICE arabica Sep and London robusta Sep settlements, 24 August 2026, converted at 1 c/lb = $22.05/t","x":["Arabica Sep","Robusta Sep"],"series":[{"name":"Settlement","values":[8327,3790]}]}
+```
+
+The second division inside the species is **processing**, and it is a form change like any other. **Washed** coffee has the fruit stripped off before drying: cleaner, brighter, more consistent, and the norm in Colombia, Central America and most of East Africa. **Natural** coffee dries with the fruit still attached: sweeter, heavier, more variable, and the norm in most of Brazil. The same species processed two ways is two different products with two different buyers, and the market pays for the transformation.
+
+## Certified stock is not inventory
+
+Certified stock is coffee that has been shipped to an exchange-licensed warehouse, sampled, examined by a licensed grader and stamped as deliverable against the futures contract. Monday's figure was 226,242 bags.
+
+Set that against the world.
+
+| | Bags |
+|---|---|
+| World output forecast, 2026/27 | 189,700,000 |
+| World consumption per day | ~520,000 |
+| Certified arabica stock | 226,242 |
+
+The entire visible exchange stock is about ten hours of world coffee drinking. A market that size should not be able to move a global commodity six percent in a session — and it does, every time, for a reason that has nothing to do with supply.
+
+Certified stock is not supply. It is the **deliverable float**. The front month is a promise to deliver from that pile and only from that pile. At roughly 283 bags to a lot, 226,242 bags is about 800 lots of deliverable coffee. A single mid-sized roaster could stand for that. Monday was the first day of the delivery notice period for the spot contract, small volumes were tendered against a thin float, and the front month went up five percent while the deferred went up less.
+
+## The number of the day
+
+September settled 36.10 cents over December.
+
+Put a lot around it. 36.10 cents on 37,500 lb is **$13,537.50 per lot, for three months**.
+
+Now price what carrying that coffee actually costs. Financing 377.75 c/lb for three months at 8% is 7.56 cents. Warehousing and insurance are a fraction of that. So in a comfortable market December should trade something like 8 cents *over* September. It is trading 36 cents *under*.
+
+```chart
+{"type":"waterfall","unit":"c/lb, Dec minus Sep","title":"Full carry versus the tape","caption":"A comfortable market puts December about eight cents over September. It is thirty-six cents under. That forty-four cent gap is what the deliverable float is worth.","source":"ICE settlements 24 August 2026; carry computed on 377.75 c/lb at 8 percent for three months","steps":[{"label":"Full carry","value":7.6,"kind":"base"},{"label":"Scarcity of deliverable stock","value":-43.7},{"label":"Actual Dec–Sep","kind":"total"}]}
+```
+
+Episode 3 called an inverse the market screaming for immediate supply. This is what a scream looks like in a market whose float is 800 lots.
+
+## What the desk is actually arguing about
+
+Here is the decision in its natural habitat.
+
+> **TRADER:** I've got two thousand bags of Honduras sitting in Antwerp. Do I certify it?
+> **BROKER:** What's the roaster paying you?
+> **TRADER:** Plus fourteen.
+> **BROKER:** Board's paying you thirty-six to give it up now. Grade it.
+> **TRADER:** If it grades. If it fails I've moved it for nothing.
+
+Neither of them mentions the price of coffee. They are comparing two prices for the same bag: the roaster's differential, and the exchange's inverse. And the trader's last line is the whole risk — grading is pass-fail, and a failed lot has been shipped, handled and paid for on the way to a warehouse it now has to leave.
+
+## The valve
+
+This is the mechanism worth taking away, because it turns certified stocks from a statistic into a signal.
+
+The contract lists which origins are deliverable, and it assigns each one a **fixed** premium or discount. Fixed as in written into the contract and unchanged whatever happens. The physical differential for that same origin moves every day, with the crop, the freight and the roaster's order book.
+
+Those two numbers are a valve:
+
+- When the physical differential falls **below** the exchange's fixed number, the coffee is worth more delivered to the exchange than sold to a roaster. It walks into the warehouse. Certified stocks build.
+- When the physical differential rises **above** it, the roaster outbids the exchange. It walks back out. Certified stocks drain.
+
+So a two-and-three-quarter-year low in certified stocks does not mean the world is short of coffee. It means roasters are currently paying more than the exchange for the origins that are deliverable — which is exactly what you would expect with Brazil's arabica harvest running nine points behind last year.
+
+And it clarifies what certification actually guarantees. It guarantees a **grade**: a defect count, a screen size, a cup that is not tainted. It does not guarantee that the coffee is good, or fresh, or that anyone wants it. Certified coffee has sat in warehouses for years at a time because no roaster would pay enough to justify taking it out — a pile of perfectly deliverable coffee that the physical market had priced at nothing.

package/ep12.script.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
+Every green coffee bean the New York exchange can actually deliver against its front month fits in about nine hundred containers. ||| 0.5
+That is the whole visible float. Against a world crop of a hundred and ninety million bags. ||| 0.7
+This is Soft Commodity Trading, episode twelve. Coffee, and why the same word covers two completely different markets. ||| 0.8
+First, the tape. ||| 0.5
+Coffee led everything on Monday. ||| 0.35
+September arabica on I C E settled up nineteen cents at three seventy-seven seventy-five. Three dollars seventy-eight a pound. ||| 0.4
+That is a five percent day and a seven and a half month high. ||| 0.5
+December arabica settled three forty-one sixty-five. So September trades thirty-six cents over December. ||| 0.5
+Robusta in London rallied too, up a hundred and ninety-two dollars, five point three percent, to around three thousand seven hundred and ninety a tonne. ||| 0.6
+Now the number underneath the rally. ||| 0.35
+Certified arabica stocks at the exchange fell to two hundred and twenty-six thousand bags. A two and three quarter year low. ||| 0.5
+Certified robusta stocks went the other way, to an eight and three quarter month high. ||| 0.5
+Same drink. Opposite inventory stories. Hold that thought. ||| 0.6
+Brazil is running late. Eighty-one percent harvested at the middle of August, against eighty-six a year ago. ||| 0.4
+The arabica harvest specifically is eighty-six percent done against ninety-five last year. ||| 0.5
+Vietnam is the mirror image. Robusta output near one point seven six million tonnes, a four year high, and exports up twenty-one percent so far this year. ||| 0.6
+In the grains, corn kept grinding higher. December corn five fifteen and a half, up one point four percent. ||| 0.4
+November beans went the other way, twelve twenty-four and a quarter, down one point two percent. ||| 0.6
+The policy story this morning is India. ||| 0.35
+India has lifted its wheat export ban. ||| 0.5
+Think about the mechanism, not the headline. ||| 0.4
+A ban removes a seller from the world market. Lifting it adds one back. ||| 0.4
+Every tonne India offers is a tonne somebody does not have to buy from the Black Sea, from France, or from Australia. ||| 0.5
+So the first place it shows up is not Chicago. It is the destination differential in South and Southeast Asia. ||| 0.5
+Meanwhile Ukraine shipped a hundred and eighty-eight thousand tonnes last week, down eleven percent, with strikes again on Odesa and Pivdennyi. ||| 0.5
+Capacity constrained on one side of the world, capacity released on the other. That is the wheat map right now. ||| 0.8
+Now. Coffee. ||| 0.5
+Start with the thing that trips everyone up. ||| 0.35
+There is no such thing as the coffee price. ||| 0.5
+There are two plants, two exchanges, two currencies, two units. ||| 0.6
+Arabica is the fussy one. High altitude, cooler nights, more fragile, lower yield per tree. Aromatic, acidic, and what you drink in a specialty shop. ||| 0.5
+Robusta grows low, hot and wet. Hardier, higher yielding, roughly double the caffeine, and a heavier, flatter cup. ||| 0.5
+Robusta also gives more soluble solids per kilo, which is why it dominates instant coffee. ||| 0.6
+Arabica prices in New York, in U S cents per pound. The contract is thirty-seven thousand five hundred pounds. ||| 0.4
+That is two hundred and fifty bags of sixty kilos. A tick is five hundredths of a cent, worth eighteen dollars seventy-five. ||| 0.5
+Robusta prices in London, in dollars per tonne, ten tonnes a lot, a dollar tick worth ten dollars. ||| 0.5
+Two different units for the same shelf. So a desk converts before it can compare. ||| 0.4
+Cents a pound times twenty-two, near enough, gives you dollars a tonne. ||| 0.5
+Run Monday's numbers through it. Arabica, eight thousand three hundred dollars a tonne. Robusta, three thousand seven hundred and ninety. ||| 0.6
+Arabica is trading at more than twice robusta. ||| 0.5
+That gap is not a mistake. It is a switch. ||| 0.4
+A soluble manufacturer or a supermarket blender can move a few percent of the blend between the two. ||| 0.4
+When arabica gets rich enough, they do. And that substitution is what eventually caps the spread. ||| 0.7
+Second thing. Processing. ||| 0.4
+Washed coffee has the fruit stripped off before drying. Cleaner, brighter, more consistent. Colombia, Central America, most of East Africa. ||| 0.4
+Natural coffee dries with the fruit still on. Sweeter, heavier, more variable. That is most of Brazil. ||| 0.5
+Same species can be either. The processing is a form change, and form changes are paid for. ||| 0.7
+Now the piece that actually moved the market on Monday. ||| 0.5
+Certified stocks. ||| 0.4
+Certified stock is coffee that has been shipped to a licensed warehouse, sampled, graded by a licensed grader, and stamped as deliverable against the futures contract. ||| 0.5
+Here is what people get wrong about it. ||| 0.4
+Certified stock is not world inventory. It is not even close. ||| 0.5
+Two hundred and twenty-six thousand bags, against world consumption of roughly a hundred and ninety million bags a year. ||| 0.5
+That is under half a day of world coffee drinking. ||| 0.6
+So why does a market of that size care? ||| 0.4
+Because certified stock is not supply. It is the deliverable float. ||| 0.5
+The front month is a promise to deliver from that pile, and only from that pile. ||| 0.5
+Two hundred and twenty-six thousand bags is about nine hundred lots. ||| 0.5
+A single medium sized roaster could stand for that. ||| 0.6
+And Monday was the first day of the delivery notice period for the spot contract. ||| 0.5
+Thin float, delivery window open, small volumes tendered. The front month went up five percent and the deferred went up less. ||| 0.7
+Which brings us to the number of the day. ||| 0.5
+September over December, thirty-six cents a pound. ||| 0.5
+Put a lot around it. Thirty-six cents on thirty-seven and a half thousand pounds is thirteen and a half thousand dollars. ||| 0.5
+Per lot. For three months. ||| 0.6
+Compare that with what carrying the coffee actually costs. ||| 0.4
+Money on a hundred and forty thousand dollar lot for three months is a few thousand. Warehousing and insurance, a fraction of that. ||| 0.5
+Call full carry something like seven or eight cents, positive. ||| 0.5
+So the market is more than forty cents the wrong way round. ||| 0.6
+In episode three we called an inverse the market screaming for immediate supply. This is what a scream looks like in a small market. ||| 0.7
+Here is how that decision sounds on a desk. ||| 0.5
+TRADER: I've got two thousand bags of Honduras sitting in Antwerp. Do I certify it? ||| 0.25
+BROKER: What's the roaster paying you? ||| 0.25
+TRADER: Plus fourteen. ||| 0.25
+BROKER: Board's paying you thirty-six to give it up now. Grade it. ||| 0.25
+TRADER: If it grades. If it fails I've moved it for nothing. ||| 0.6
+Listen to what they are actually arguing about. ||| 0.4
+Not the price of coffee. Two prices for the same bag. ||| 0.5
+The roaster's differential, and the exchange's inverse. ||| 0.6
+And that is the mechanism that makes certified stocks a price signal rather than a supply statistic. ||| 0.5
+The contract lists which origins are deliverable, and it fixes a premium or a discount for each one. Fixed. It does not move. ||| 0.5
+The physical differential for that same origin moves every day. ||| 0.5
+When the physical differential falls below the exchange's fixed number, that coffee walks into the warehouse. ||| 0.4
+When it rises above, it walks back out to a roaster. ||| 0.6
+So certified stocks are low not because there is no coffee. ||| 0.4
+They are low because roasters are paying more than the exchange for it. ||| 0.6
+Which tells you what certification does and does not guarantee. ||| 0.4
+It guarantees a grade. A defect count, a screen size, a cup that is not tainted. ||| 0.4
+It does not guarantee that the coffee is any good, and it does not guarantee anybody wants it. ||| 0.5
+Coffee has sat certified for years because nobody would pay to take it out. ||| 0.6
+Takeaway. ||| 0.5
+Arabica and robusta are two markets wearing one name. Different plants, different exchanges, different units, and a spread that works as a substitution switch. ||| 0.5
+Certified stock is the deliverable float, not the world's coffee. Read it as a differential signal. ||| 0.5
+An inverse in a thin market is not a forecast. It is the cost of not owning the deliverable thing today. ||| 0.5
+And a fixed exchange differential against a moving physical one is what makes coffee walk in and out of the warehouse. ||| 0.7
+Next time, the other half of coffee. Origin differentials, price to be fixed contracts, and what a frost rally actually does to a physical book. ||| 0.5
+Four questions in the notes, and the worked solutions with them. Number one is the long one. ||| 0.5

package/feed.xml

@@ -18,6 +18,27 @@
       <title>Soft Commodity Trading</title>
       <link>https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/index.html</link>
     </image>
+    <item>
+      <title>Ep 12 — Coffee: The Market</title>
+      <link>https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12.html</link>
+      <description><![CDATA[<p>Arabica and robusta are two different plants on two different exchanges in two different units, and on Monday one settled at 2.2 times the other. Then certified stocks: why 226,242 bags, under half a day of world consumption, can move a global market five percent in a session.</p><p><a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12.html">Read this episode, with the charts, the glossary and the quiz &rarr;</a></p>]]></description>
+      <itunes:summary>Arabica and robusta are two different plants on two different exchanges in two different units, and on Monday one settled at 2.2 times the other. Then certified stocks: why 226,242 bags, under half a day of world consumption, can move a global market five percent in a session.
+
+Read this episode: https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12.html</itunes:summary>
+      <enclosure url="https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12.mp3" length="8751788" type="audio/mpeg"/>
+      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep12.mp3</guid>
+      <pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 05:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
+      <itunes:duration>729</itunes:duration>
+    </item>
+    <item>
+      <title>Ep 11 — Storage, Elevation and Trade Flows</title>
+      <description>An elevator is not long grain — it is long space, and the basis is what space costs. Storage capacity, the harvest basis collapse, and the blend that creates value out of arithmetic until the specification turns pass/fail.</description>
+      <itunes:summary>An elevator is not long grain — it is long space, and the basis is what space costs. Storage capacity, the harvest basis collapse, and the blend that creates value out of arithmetic until the specification turns pass/fail.</itunes:summary>
+      <enclosure url="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily@1.0.33/ep11.mp3" length="8292429" type="audio/mpeg"/>
+      <guid isPermaLink="false">https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily@1.0.33/ep11.mp3</guid>
+      <pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 05:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
+      <itunes:duration>690</itunes:duration>
+    </item>
     <item>
       <title>Ep 10 — Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering</title>
       <link>https://storage.googleapis.com/podcast-audio-2647223968/commodity-desk-daily/ep10.html</link>

package/glossary.md

@@ -5,7 +5,9 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
 - **45Z** — the US clean fuel production credit, one of the two policy levers that sets American soybean oil demand  _(ep 8)_
 - **abandonment** — planted area never harvested for grain, lost to drought, flood or a switch to silage  _(ep 6)_
 - **ABCD** — the four historic majors, Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus  _(ep 2)_
+- **arabica** — the high-altitude coffee species, aromatic and acidic, lower-yielding and more fragile, priced on ICE in New York  _(ep 12)_
 - **arb** — the full economics of moving a cargo, buy price plus freight and costs against the sale  _(ep 2)_
+- **arb window** — the period during which a route's economics work, opening and shutting on freight, differentials and FX rather than on flat price  _(ep 11)_
 - **asset-heavy** — owning the physical chain, which converts a volatile trading margin into a steadier toll  _(ep 2)_
 - **asset-light** — renting elevators, terminals and plants rather than owning them  _(ep 2)_
 - **at** — the small word that introduces the offer side (462 bid, at 462 and a half)  _(ep 1)_
@@ -17,22 +19,28 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
 - **bill of lading** — receipt, contract of carriage and document of title in one, whoever holds it owns the cargo  _(ep 4)_
 - **biomass-based diesel** — the RFS category covering biodiesel and renewable diesel made from fats and vegetable oils  _(ep 9)_
 - **blend wall** — the physical or warranty limit on how much conventional biodiesel an engine or fuel system will tolerate  _(ep 9)_
+- **blending** — combining lots of different quality so the weighted average meets a contract specification, creating value from material nobody else can use  _(ep 11)_
 - **board crush** — the processing margin implied purely by futures prices, meal price times 0.022 plus oil price times 0.11 minus the bean price, in dollars per bushel  _(ep 8)_
+- **bottleneck asset** — a facility with no near substitute at the moment it is needed, whose owner sets the price rather than quoting one  _(ep 11)_
 - **bunkers** — the vessel's fuel, priced separately from the hire and carried by the owner on a voyage charter and by the charterer on a time charter  _(ep 10)_
 - **bushel** — volume measure standardized into weight, 60 lb for soybeans and wheat, 56 lb for corn  _(ep 1)_
 - **bushels per tonne** — about 36.7 for soybeans and wheat, 39.4 for corn  _(ep 1)_
 - **calendar spread** — the price difference between two months of the same contract, traded as one instrument at one price  _(ep 3)_
 - **cancelling date** — the last day of the laycan, after which the counterparty may cancel  _(ep 4)_
+- **capacity utilisation** — the share of storage capacity actually occupied, the best leading indicator of what harvest basis is about to do  _(ep 11)_
 - **Capesize** — a bulk carrier of about 180,000 dwt and up, too large for the Panama Canal, used mainly for iron ore and coal  _(ep 10)_
 - **carry market (contango)** — a curve with later months above nearer ones, the market pays for storage  _(ep 3)_
 - **carry-in** — stocks left over from the previous season, the starting point of a balance sheet  _(ep 2)_
 - **carryout** — ending stocks, the desk's one-word name for what is left at the end of the marketing year  _(ep 7)_
 - **cents per bushel** — Chicago grain quoting unit, 4.39 dollars per bushel is spoken four thirty-nine  _(ep 1)_
+- **certified stock** — coffee sampled, graded and stamped as deliverable against the futures contract and held in an exchange-licensed warehouse, the deliverable float rather than world inventory  _(ep 12)_
 - **CFR** — cost and freight, the seller pays the voyage to a named destination but risk still passes at loading  _(ep 4)_
 - **charter party** — the contract hiring the vessel, between charterer and shipowner  _(ep 4)_
 - **CIF** — cost insurance and freight, CFR plus the seller buys the marine insurance the buyer would claim on  _(ep 4)_
+- **Coffee C (KC)** — the ICE arabica futures contract, 37,500 lb quoted in US cents per pound with a 0.05 cent tick worth 18.75 dollars  _(ep 12)_
 - **conversion cost** — the variable cost of turning beans into products, gas, power, hexane, labour and maintenance, typically 35 to 50 cents a bushel at a modern plant  _(ep 8)_
 - **conversion factors** — 36.7 bushels per tonne for wheat and beans and 39.4 for corn, so cents per bushel times 0.367 or 0.394 gives dollars per tonne  _(ep 1)_
+- **country elevator** — the first commercial storage point off the farm, buying from growers and shipping onward by truck, rail or barge  _(ep 11)_
 - **CPO** — crude palm oil, the unrefined oil pressed from the fruit of the oil palm and the benchmark grade traded internationally  _(ep 9)_
 - **Crop Production** — the USDA report published alongside WASDE carrying the survey-based yield and area figures  _(ep 7)_
 - **cross-hedge** — hedging with a contract that is not your grade or your origin, which removes flat price and adds correlation risk  _(ep 5)_
@@ -41,12 +49,17 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
 - **cwt (hundredweight)** — 100 lb, the quoting unit for US rice  _(ep 1)_
 - **deadweight (dwt)** — the total weight a vessel can carry including cargo, fuel, water, stores and crew, so always more than the cargo she can load  _(ep 10)_
 - **Dec over** — spread quoting convention that names the expensive leg, December fifteen over means December is 15 cents above the other month  _(ep 3)_
+- **defect count** — the number of black, broken, insect-damaged or foreign items in a fixed sample weight, the primary coffee grading measure  _(ep 12)_
 - **deferred** — months or shipment windows further out  _(ep 1)_
+- **deliverable float** — the quantity actually available to settle a futures delivery, which sets how far a front month can travel regardless of world supply  _(ep 12)_
+- **deliverable origin differential** — the fixed premium or discount the contract assigns to each approved origin, unchanged whatever the physical market does  _(ep 12)_
+- **delivery notice period** — the window in which shorts may tender certified stock against the expiring contract  _(ep 12)_
 - **demand-to-supply ratio** — the Baltic measure of tonne-mile demand growth against fleet growth, above 1.0 when cargo is outrunning ships  _(ep 10)_
 - **demurrage** — the penalty owed when a vessel is held beyond the agreed laytime  _(ep 2)_
 - **despatch** — the reward paid when loading beats laytime, customarily half the demurrage rate  _(ep 4)_
 - **differential** — the premium or discount to a named futures month, as in November plus 80, the negotiated part of a physical quote  _(ep 1)_
 - **differential (basis)** — the premium or discount to a named futures month, quoted as plus 80 or minus 20  _(ep 1)_
+- **discount schedule** — the published table of price deductions for grain outside a contract's grade limits, and the raw material of every blending trade  _(ep 11)_
 - **discretionary blending** — blending vegetable oil into the fuel pool purely because it is cheaper than gasoil, with no mandate and no subsidy behind it  _(ep 9)_
 - **distillers grains** — DDGS, the protein co-product of ethanol production, sold back into the feed market  _(ep 6)_
 - **done** — the word that seals a trade  _(ep 1)_
@@ -54,6 +67,7 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
 - **draft survey** — weighing a cargo by reading the ship's displacement before and after loading  _(ep 4)_
 - **draw area** — the geographic catchment a crush plant buys its beans from, whose size sets how hard it must bid the local basis  _(ep 8)_
 - **durum** — the pasta wheat, a separate species with its own thin market  _(ep 5)_
+- **elevation margin** — the toll an elevator earns for taking grain in, conditioning it and loading it out, separate from any gain on the basis  _(ep 11)_
 - **ethanol grind** — the rate at which ethanol plants consume corn, which slows when the plant margin turns negative and removes corn demand in steps  _(ep 6)_
 - **export levy** — a tax charged on a commodity leaving the country, used in Indonesia both to discourage exports of crude palm oil and to fund the domestic blending subsidy  _(ep 9)_
 - **falling number** — the sprout-damage test, a low number demotes milling wheat to feed wheat  _(ep 5)_
@@ -73,11 +87,13 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
 - **full carry** — storage plus interest per month of holding grain, the practical ceiling on a carry spread  _(ep 3)_
 - **gasoil** — the traded middle distillate that diesel prices off, and the reference against which discretionary blending economics are judged  _(ep 9)_
 - **geared vessel** — a ship carrying its own cranes, which can therefore discharge at a berth with no shore equipment  _(ep 10)_
+- **grading** — the exchange pass-fail examination of a sample covering defect count, screen size and a clean cup  _(ep 12)_
 - **Grain Stocks** — the quarterly USDA survey of physical inventories, from which the feed and residual line is backed out  _(ep 7)_
 - **gross processing margin** — the industry name for product value minus raw material cost, the crush stated as a margin  _(ep 8)_
 - **Handysize** — the smallest mainstream dry bulk class at roughly 10,000 to 40,000 dwt, geared and able to work berths larger ships cannot reach  _(ep 10)_
 - **hard red spring (HRS)** — the 13.5 percent plus Minneapolis wheat bought to lift the protein of a grist  _(ep 5)_
 - **hard red winter (HRW)** — the 11 to 12.5 percent bread wheat priced at Kansas City, the US wheat that competes with the Black Sea  _(ep 5)_
+- **harvest basis** — the seasonal low in the cash-minus-futures spread, set when a year of crop arrives in six weeks into a pipe sized to move it over twelve months  _(ep 11)_
 - **harvested acres** — area actually cut for grain, roughly 8 million acres below planted for US corn, and the denominator that yield is quoted against  _(ep 6)_
 - **hexane** — the solvent used to extract the last of the oil from the flaked bean, and a real line in the conversion cost  _(ep 8)_
 - **hit** — your bid was taken by a seller  _(ep 1)_
@@ -93,10 +109,12 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
 - **kilolitre** — one thousand litres, the volume unit Asian governments state biofuel mandates in, converted to tonnes using the fuel's density of about 0.88 t per cubic metre for biodiesel  _(ep 9)_
 - **laycan** — the window during which a vessel may present for loading  _(ep 1)_
 - **laytime** — the contractually allowed time to load or discharge before demurrage begins  _(ep 4)_
+- **licensed warehouse** — a storage facility the exchange approves to hold deliverable stock, at named ports only  _(ep 12)_
 - **lift the offer** — to buy from someone else's offer  _(ep 1)_
 - **lifted** — your offer was taken by a buyer  _(ep 1)_
 - **limit move** — an exchange-set maximum daily price change, trading pauses beyond it  _(ep 3)_
 - **line-up** — the queue of vessels waiting to load at a port, a key driver of origin basis  _(ep 2)_
+- **load-out capacity** — how fast an elevator can ship grain out, the lever that decides whether a full house is a crisis or a rotation  _(ep 11)_
 - **lot** — one futures contract, 5,000 bushels for Chicago grains, the unit desks count positions in  _(ep 1)_
 - **marketing year** — the accounting year a crop is measured in, September to August for US corn and soybeans and June to May for US wheat  _(ep 7)_
 - **Matif milling wheat (EBM)** — the Paris contract, 50 tonnes a lot quoted in euros per tonne and delivered into Rouen and Dunkirk  _(ep 5)_
@@ -104,6 +122,7 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
 - **metric tonne** — 2,204.6 lb, the grain trading weight unit outside the US  _(ep 1)_
 - **month codes** — F G H J K M N Q U V X Z for January through December, the Z is December  _(ep 1)_
 - **NASS** — USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service, the body running the surveys behind the published numbers  _(ep 7)_
+- **natural process** — coffee dried with the fruit still attached, giving a sweeter, heavier and more variable cup  _(ep 12)_
 - **new crop** — the marketing year about to begin, priced by the contract months that follow the coming harvest  _(ep 7)_
 - **nomination** — formally naming the performing vessel under a cargo contract  _(ep 4)_
 - **NOPA** — the National Oilseed Processors Association, whose monthly published crush figure makes US soybean crush a measured line rather than an inferred one  _(ep 8)_
@@ -118,6 +137,7 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
 - **Panamax and Kamsarmax** — the 75,000 to 82,000 dwt workhorse of the grain and coal trades, usually gearless and drawing about fourteen metres fully loaded  _(ep 10)_
 - **paper** — exchange futures and options, used by a physical desk to hedge rather than to speculate  _(ep 2)_
 - **part cargo** — loading a vessel below capacity because the berth, river or canal cannot take her full draft  _(ep 10)_
+- **pass-fail specification** — a contract term that cannot be met on average, such as contamination, infestation or an unapproved genetic event, where blending increases the affected tonnage instead of diluting it  _(ep 11)_
 - **physical (cash)** — real cargoes under contract with specs and load windows, as opposed to paper  _(ep 2)_
 - **plant crush** — what a physical plant actually earns, the board crush adjusted for bean, meal and oil basis and net of conversion cost  _(ep 8)_
 - **planted acres** — area sown, the number that moves on farmer decisions and USDA area surveys  _(ep 6)_
@@ -130,25 +150,37 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
 - **putting on the crush** — buying bean futures and selling meal and oil futures against them in a 10-11-9 lot ratio, which fixes the processing margin  _(ep 8)_
 - **quality basis** — the spread between the grade you own and the grade the futures contract delivers  _(ep 5)_
 - **ration** — the formulated feed mix a mill grinds, in which every ingredient carries an inclusion limit and a substitution price against the others  _(ep 6)_
+- **receiving capacity** — how fast an elevator can take grain in, in bushels or tonnes per hour, a different constraint from how much it can hold  _(ep 11)_
 - **renewable diesel** — hydrotreated vegetable oil or HVO, a drop-in diesel chemically identical to fossil diesel and not limited by a blend wall, unlike FAME  _(ep 9)_
+- **replacement value** — what it would cost to buy back today what you have just sold, the test of whether a price was genuinely good  _(ep 11)_
 - **residual** — a figure obtained by subtraction, such as ending stocks, which absorbs any error in the larger numbers almost in full  _(ep 2)_
 - **reverse crush** — the opposite position, short beans and long products, used when a processor expects to idle capacity rather than run it  _(ep 8)_
 - **RFS** — the US Renewable Fuel Standard, the rule that sets annual minimum volumes of renewable fuel that must be blended into American transport fuel  _(ep 9)_
 - **RIN** — renewable identification number, the tradable compliance certificate generated with each gallon of renewable fuel, at 1.5 RINs per gallon of biodiesel, which is why a mandate volume must be checked for basis before it is multiplied by a feedstock factor  _(ep 9)_
 - **river-sea vessel** — a small shallow-draft ship built to work both inland waterways and short sea legs, the only class able to load in the Sea of Azov  _(ep 10)_
+- **robusta** — the low-altitude coffee species, hardier and higher-yielding, about double the caffeine and a flatter cup, priced in London  _(ep 12)_
+- **robusta contract (RC)** — the London robusta futures contract, 10 tonnes quoted in dollars per tonne with a one dollar tick worth 10 dollars  _(ep 12)_
 - **roll** — closing a hedge in one month and reopening it further out, executed as a spread trade  _(ep 3)_
 - **run rate** — the share of installed capacity a plant is actually operating at, the lever a crusher pulls when margins move  _(ep 8)_
 - **RVO** — renewable volume obligation, the share of the national mandate assigned to an individual refiner or importer  _(ep 9)_
 - **safrinha** — Brazil's second corn crop, planted February to March into soybean stubble and pollinating April to May, about three quarters of Brazilian corn production  _(ep 6)_
+- **screen size** — bean size measured by the mesh it will not fall through, part of the deliverable specification  _(ep 12)_
+- **segregation** — keeping identities and grades physically apart in separate bins, the precondition for being able to blend deliberately later  _(ep 11)_
 - **short ton** — 2,000 lb, used by US soybean meal, about 10 percent lighter than a metric tonne  _(ep 1)_
+- **shrink** — weight lost when grain is dried to a safe keeping moisture, deducted as a percentage and a real cost to whoever owns the grain  _(ep 11)_
 - **soft red winter (SRW)** — the low-protein soft wheat the Chicago contract delivers, used for cakes biscuits and crackers  _(ep 5)_
+- **soluble solids** — the share of the coffee bean that dissolves in water, higher in robusta, which is why robusta dominates instant coffee  _(ep 12)_
 - **space time form** — the three transformations a merchant is paid for, geography, storage and processing  _(ep 2)_
 - **standing bid** — demand that is present regardless of price because it is created by legal obligation rather than by choice  _(ep 9)_
 - **statement of facts** — the port log of events both sides use to fight laytime claims  _(ep 4)_
 - **stocks-to-use** — ending stocks divided by total use, the market's tension gauge  _(ep 2)_
+- **storage tariff** — the published charge for commercial storage, quoted in cents per bushel per month or per day, or in dollars per tonne per month  _(ep 11)_
 - **substitution spread** — the price gap between two competing vegetable oils, which sets the point at which a refiner reformulates from one to the other  _(ep 9)_
 - **Supramax** — a dry bulk vessel of roughly 50,000 to 60,000 dwt, normally carrying its own cranes, working minor bulks and shorter legs  _(ep 10)_
+- **temporary storage** — ground piles, bunkers and bags used when permanent capacity is full, cheap per bushel to build and expensive per bushel in spoilage and rehandling  _(ep 11)_
+- **terminal elevator** — large storage at a port, river or rail hub whose business is blending, load-out speed and access rather than farm origination  _(ep 11)_
 - **test weight** — the density measure telling a miller how much flour comes out of a tonne  _(ep 5)_
+- **throughput** — the volume moved through a facility in a period, the number that actually pays for a fixed asset because capacity earns nothing standing still  _(ep 11)_
 - **tick** — smallest price increment, a quarter cent per bushel in Chicago grains, worth 12.50 dollars per lot  _(ep 1)_
 - **ticker** — the short screen code a contract is spoken by, ZW wheat, ZC corn, ZS soybeans, ZM meal, ZL oil, KC coffee, SB sugar, CT cotton  _(ep 3)_
 - **time charter** — hiring the vessel itself for a period at a price in dollars per day, with the charterer taking speed, weather, port delay and usually fuel  _(ep 10)_
@@ -162,6 +194,7 @@ Units, conventions and desk expressions, accumulated as the show introduces them
 - **war-risk premium** — an insurance surcharge on a vessel's hull value for sailing into a conflict zone, quoted as a percentage  _(ep 2)_
 - **WASDE** — the USDA monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report  _(ep 1)_
 - **washed out** — offsetting trades cancel each other and only the price difference is settled  _(ep 1)_
+- **washed process** — coffee with the fruit stripped off before drying, giving a cleaner and more consistent cup  _(ep 12)_
 - **washout** — cancelling two offsetting physical contracts by settling the price difference instead of shipping  _(ep 1)_
 - **weather premium** — the gap between where a crop trades and where it would trade at trend yield, the price of a distribution of outcomes rather than of a forecast  _(ep 6)_
 - **weather working day** — a laytime day that counts only when weather permits cargo work  _(ep 4)_

package/package.json

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
   "name": "@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily",
-  "version": "1.0.32",
-  "description": "Soft Commodity Trading - Ep 10: Freight: Dry Bulk and Chartering",
+  "version": "1.0.34",
+  "description": "Soft Commodity Trading - Ep 12: Coffee: The Market",
   "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
   "keywords": [
     "podcast",