@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.27 → 1.0.29

package/covered.md

@@ -10,3 +10,4 @@ Running log. Read before writing a new episode: avoid repeating material, and on
 - **Ep 6** (Mon) — *Corn, Crop Calendars and Weather Risk*: Corn as a demand story (feed ~2/5, ethanol grind and its margin switch, exports 3.275bn bu, stepped demand curve); corn-wheat feed substitution priced both ways - Dec corn 477.5 = 188 USD/t vs Dec SRW 679 = 249.5 USD/t, 4 percent feeding credit gives a 195 USD/t switch level, 54.50 USD/t gap = 148 c/bu, wheat would need 531; 654k a month on a 20kt mill at 60 percent inclusion; reverse ceiling corn at 240 USD/t = 609 c/bu; BROKER/FEEDER dialogue quoting flat-to-corn rather than a wheat price. Crop calendar table US/Ukraine/Brazil full-season/safrinha/Argentina, US and Ukraine share a hemisphere so not diversified, safrinha is 3/4 of Brazilian corn and its risk is the soybean harvest date in front of it (wet October to May pollination in the dry season). Anatomy of a weather premium: price of a distribution vs trend yield, builds 10-14 days before the window, decays on the calendar not the forecast; Aug WASDE case - yield cut 183 to 180.7 removed 204m bu on 88.6m harvested acres but 2.8m acres found lifted production to 16.013bn, second largest ever; planted vs harvested acres as two denominators, ~8m acres never cut for grain. Pulse: Fri 14 Aug closes higher across the board with wheat up 4 percent on the week (Sep corn 459 +11, Sep beans 1177.75 +11.75, Sep meal 310.20, Sep oil 69.44, Sep Chi wheat 674.75 +22, Dec SRW 679, Dec KC 747.25, Dec corn 477.5, Matif spot 228.25 EUR); GEO escalation - all three Novorossiysk grain terminals suspended by Ukrainian drone strikes, Russian August loadings ~2.5 Mt = under half the five-year pace and weakest August since 2016/17, Ukraine MTD 201.7 kt -76 percent y/y, deepwater corridor shut since 22 July, Russia rejected partial ceasefire for civilian shipping - flow substitution moved from threat to actual buying, which is why this week the price moved and last week it did not
 - **Ep 7** (Tue) — *WASDE and Building a Balance Sheet*: How a grain balance sheet is built line by line, and why ending stocks — the line nobody measures — moves about ten times faster than the crop itself. Plus feed and residual, the line that hides the sins, and why two competent analysts agree on supply and fight about demand.
 - **Ep 8** (Wed) — *The Soybean Complex and the Crush*: One seed, three markets: beans, meal and oil, and the processing margin that runs the industry. Board crush arithmetic step by step, why the plant never earns the screen number, and where a crusher's real optionality sits.
+- **Ep 9** (Thu) — *Vegetable oils and biofuels*: Palm, soy, rape and sun trade as one system, and the spread between them is the switch that rations demand. Then biofuels: how a mandate turns a political decision into a standing bid for a crop, and why a fuel policy is always a protein policy.