@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily 1.0.20 → 1.0.21

package/covered.md

@@ -8,4 +8,4 @@ Running log. Read before writing a new episode: avoid repeating material, and on
 - **Ep 4** (Thu) — *The Physical Chain, End to End*: Incoterms as risk allocation (FOB/CFR/CIF, risk passes at loading, cost vs risk separate, who charters/insures); execution clock laycan-nomination-NOR-laytime-demurrage/despatch; worked example 60kt FOB Santos beans at ~434 USD/t = 26M cargo, 3 days over at 24k/day = 72k vs 660k margin (11%), interest 4.3k/day; statement of facts and cascading demurrage claims; laycan miss = cancellation into a 40c rally; documents: draft survey, certificate final at load, bill of lading as title, backdating = fraud; execution desk as profit centre; OPS/TRADER dialogue on NOR and turn time. Vocab: Incoterms, CFR, CIF, charter party, nomination, NOR, laytime, weather working day, despatch, statement of facts, draft survey, bill of lading, cancelling date. Pulse: WASDE aftermath - corn yield cut to 180.7 (trade 182.5, prior 183), new-crop ending stocks 1.653bn vs 1.79 July, Dec corn +20.25c to 4.8075 two-week high; beans production +44M above July yet Nov +14.5c to 11.8325 on crush +30M (trade whole sheet, not one row); Chi wheat +22.5c to 6.5275, KC +21.5c to 7.2075; GEO escalation: Tue talks rumour died overnight, Ukraine struck Novorossiysk idling Demetra (8.5Mt) + NKHP (7.1Mt) grain terminals ~15.5Mt/yr, Russian Aug exports est 3.0-3.4Mt, Turkey two-corridor proposal, vessels-on-demurrage-clock bridge into lesson
 - **Ep 5** (Fri) — *Wheat: The Map and the Screens*: Wheat classes and specs (SRW ~10 Chicago, HRW 11-12.5 KC, HRS 13.5+ Minneapolis, durum, Black Sea milling 11.5-12.5); protein, test weight and falling number as the real price, low falling number demotes milling to feed at ~40 USD/t. Four exchanges for one grain: Chicago and KC 5000 bu in c/bu, Minneapolis HRS, Matif EU milling 50 t lots in EUR/t delivered Rouen-Dunkirk; tick symmetry 12.50 dollars vs 12.50 euros; 60kt = 440 Chicago lots vs 1200 Matif lots. KC over Chicago 68c/bu = 26 USD/t as the protein spread and an export-bid signal. Black Sea has no futures - daily price assessments, why an assessment cannot be bought sold or hedged. Cross-hedge worked example: 60kt Russian 12.5 FOB at 224 hedged with 1200 Matif lots, Europe +10 EUR/t = -692k against physical +4 USD/t = +240k, net -452k = 7.5 USD/t slippage; cross-hedge protects against the world moving not your own market; correlation highest on quiet days; EUR/USD exposure created by the hedge itself (~13-14m EUR). MILL/SELLER dialogue on protein, falling number, test weight and the 9-dollar spec spread. Pulse: Thu 13 Aug give-back - Dec corn 4.7775 -0.6 percent, Nov beans 11.8175 flat, Chi Sep wheat 6.5125 -0.2 percent, KC Sep 7.2075 Wed settle; China bought new-crop US beans three days running totalling 505,000 t; GEO escalation - Russia struck Izmail on the Danube, Ukraine's fallback after deepwater loadings ~zero since 22 July, Ukrainian early-Aug shipments -76 percent y/y, wheat export forecast 8.3 Mt, USDA cut Russia+Ukraine exports 2.5 Mt, yet Chicago finished the week unchanged because US sales were only 255,900 t (-14 percent w/w) and the US share of world trade was cut to 9.9 from 10.9 percent - flow substitution needs a buyer who actually switches origin, and they call France, Argentina and Australia.
 - **Ep 6** (Mon) — *Corn, Crop Calendars and Weather Risk*: Corn as a demand story (feed ~2/5, ethanol grind and its margin switch, exports 3.275bn bu, stepped demand curve); corn-wheat feed substitution priced both ways - Dec corn 477.5 = 188 USD/t vs Dec SRW 679 = 249.5 USD/t, 4 percent feeding credit gives a 195 USD/t switch level, 54.50 USD/t gap = 148 c/bu, wheat would need 531; 654k a month on a 20kt mill at 60 percent inclusion; reverse ceiling corn at 240 USD/t = 609 c/bu; BROKER/FEEDER dialogue quoting flat-to-corn rather than a wheat price. Crop calendar table US/Ukraine/Brazil full-season/safrinha/Argentina, US and Ukraine share a hemisphere so not diversified, safrinha is 3/4 of Brazilian corn and its risk is the soybean harvest date in front of it (wet October to May pollination in the dry season). Anatomy of a weather premium: price of a distribution vs trend yield, builds 10-14 days before the window, decays on the calendar not the forecast; Aug WASDE case - yield cut 183 to 180.7 removed 204m bu on 88.6m harvested acres but 2.8m acres found lifted production to 16.013bn, second largest ever; planted vs harvested acres as two denominators, ~8m acres never cut for grain. Pulse: Fri 14 Aug closes higher across the board with wheat up 4 percent on the week (Sep corn 459 +11, Sep beans 1177.75 +11.75, Sep meal 310.20, Sep oil 69.44, Sep Chi wheat 674.75 +22, Dec SRW 679, Dec KC 747.25, Dec corn 477.5, Matif spot 228.25 EUR); GEO escalation - all three Novorossiysk grain terminals suspended by Ukrainian drone strikes, Russian August loadings ~2.5 Mt = under half the five-year pace and weakest August since 2016/17, Ukraine MTD 201.7 kt -76 percent y/y, deepwater corridor shut since 22 July, Russia rejected partial ceasefire for civilian shipping - flow substitution moved from threat to actual buying, which is why this week the price moved and last week it did not
-- **Ep 7** (Tue) — *WASDE and Building a Balance Sheet*: Balance sheet construction line by line: supply (carry-in, production = harvested acres x yield, imports) and use (feed and residual, ethanol, food/seed/industrial, exports), ending stocks as the closing residual, stocks-to-use 10.1 percent. Worked example: full US corn 2026/27 sheet, carry-in 1.945bn + production 16.013bn (88.6m ac x 180.7) + imports 25m = supply 17.983bn, use 16.330bn, carryout 1.653bn; yield flexed +/-2 bu = +/-177m bu = +/-11 percent of carryout on a 1.1 percent input, the ten-times leverage ratio; stocks-to-use as a convex not linear map to price, flat from 15 to 12 percent, vertical from 10 to 8; a sheet flexed with demand held fixed double-counts the tightening because exports and ethanol grind ration. Feed and residual as a residual inside the residual, backed out of quarterly Grain Stocks, absorbing all measurement error, and the two stories (real feed demand vs overstated crop) read off the curve not the flat price. ANALYST/TRADER dialogue: carryout at one six eight on the same yield, the disagreement sitting entirely in exports. Supply surveyed vs demand inferred, hence pre-report views live in spreads. Trading the surprise: 1.8 bu yield miss = 159m bu but the carryout surprise was only 72m, half absorbed by area and demand; Dec corn +20.25c on the print then held on a separate Black Sea and weather trade. Vocab: balance sheet, marketing year, carryout, total supply, total use, feed and residual, new crop/old crop, trade average, whisper number, Crop Production, Grain Stocks, NASS, implied disappearance. Pulse: Mon 17 Aug soybeans led, Nov beans 1216 +23.5c, Sep beans 1201 +23.25c, Dec corn 489.5 +6.25c, Sep corn 465 +6c, KC Sep wheat 758.75 +4.5c, Chicago SRW the exception giving back part of a +35c week; China took another 136,000 t of US beans; the crop split in two - northwestern belt dry, eastern belt too wet, conditions corn 60 pct good-excellent (-1), beans 61 pct (-1, seven points below last year), corn 76 pct dough and 4 pct mature, beans 85 pct setting pods; GEOPOLITICS moved off the Black Sea to the buyer's clock - Chinese new-crop commitments running far ahead of loadings, US-to-China departures about 11,000 t/day on a seven-day average in late July, the commitment-versus-loading gap as a policy instrument landing on the export line.
+- **Ep 7** (Tue) — *WASDE and Building a Balance Sheet*: How a grain balance sheet is built line by line, and why ending stocks — the line nobody measures — moves about ten times faster than the crop itself. Plus feed and residual, the line that hides the sins, and why two competent analysts agree on supply and fight about demand.

package/ep07.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Market pulse
 
-**Soybeans took the lead, and they took it on demand rather than supply.**
+**Monday belonged to soybeans, and they took it on demand rather than supply.**
 
 | Commodity | Contract | Price | Change |
 |---|---|---|---|
@@ -18,11 +18,11 @@ Two things did the buying. China took another 136,000 t of US soybeans. And the
 
 ```chart
 {"type":"line","mode":"index","unit":"index, Tue 11 Aug = 100",
- "title":"Beans took the lead after the report",
+ "title":"Corn led the week, beans closed on Monday",
  "x":["Tue 11","Wed 12","Thu 13","Fri 14","Mon 17"],
  "series":[{"name":"Corn Dec (CBOT)","values":[460.50,480.75,477.75,483.25,489.50]},
            {"name":"Soybeans Nov (CBOT)","values":[1168.75,1183.25,1181.75,1192.50,1216.00]}],
- "caption":"Both jumped on the 12 August WASDE and neither gave it back. On Monday beans pulled clear on Chinese buying and a dry northwestern belt, while corn added six cents.",
+ "caption":"Both jumped on the 12 August WASDE and neither gave it back. Corn has led since the report, but Monday belonged to beans, which added 2.0% against corn's 1.3% on Chinese buying and a dry northwestern belt.",
  "source":"CBOT settlements, 11–17 August 2026, from daily market wraps."}
 ```
 
@@ -214,7 +214,7 @@ Take the yield down two bushels, from 180.7 to 178.7. That is 1.1% on the yield
 ```chart
 {"type":"bar","unit":"million bushels",
  "title":"Two bushels of yield, eleven percent of carryout",
- "categories":["178.7 bu/ac","180.7 bu/ac","182.7 bu/ac"],
+ "x":["178.7 bu/ac","180.7 bu/ac","182.7 bu/ac"],
  "series":[{"name":"Ending stocks","values":[1476,1653,1830]}],
  "caption":"A 1.1% change in the yield input moves ending stocks by about 11% in either direction. The balance sheet is a lever, and the fulcrum sits very close to the crop.",
  "source":"Calculated on the August 2026 WASDE sheet, holding demand and area constant at 88.6 m harvested acres."}

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@sdelsad/commodity-desk-daily",
-  "version": "1.0.20",
+  "version": "1.0.21",
   "description": "Soft Commodity Trading - Ep 7: WASDE and Building a Balance Sheet",
   "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
   "keywords": [