@rine-kit/pubg-intelligence 0.0.0-stage → 0.1.0

package/dist/src/research.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/src/rhythm.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+import { type RateEstimate } from './analytics.js';
+export declare const RHYTHM_SCHEMA_VERSION: 1;
+/** A gap this long between two matches starts a new session. */
+export declare const SESSION_GAP_MINUTES = 40;
+export declare const RHYTHM_MIN_SESSIONS = 15;
+export declare const RHYTHM_BOOTSTRAP = 2000;
+/** Placements at or beyond this count as an early exit when looking for tilt. */
+export declare const BAD_PLACEMENT = 15;
+/** Sessions at least this long are used to compare their first and last games. */
+export declare const LONG_SESSION_GAMES = 8;
+export declare const RHYTHM_MIN_HOUR_MATCHES = 12;
+export declare const RHYTHM_HOUR_TIMEZONE = "Asia/Shanghai";
+/** One match as the rhythm analysis sees it: when, how the squad placed and what a member did on average. */
+export interface RhythmMatch {
+    timestamp: number;
+    rank: number | null;
+    /** Mean damage of the squad members present (so a missing member does not look like a bad game). */
+    damage: number;
+}
+export interface Interval {
+    mean: number | null;
+    low: number | null;
+    high: number | null;
+}
+export interface Contrast {
+    /** Group A minus group B, with a 95% interval from resampling whole sessions. */
+    diff: number | null;
+    low: number | null;
+    high: number | null;
+    a: number | null;
+    b: number | null;
+    nA: number;
+    nB: number;
+    /** True when the interval excludes zero. */
+    clear: boolean;
+}
+export interface GameIndexRow {
+    /** 1-based game number within the session; the last row is "this number or later". */
+    index: number;
+    orMore: boolean;
+    matches: number;
+    damage: Interval;
+    top10: RateEstimate;
+    medianPlacement: number | null;
+}
+export interface HourRow {
+    hour: number;
+    matches: number;
+    top10: RateEstimate;
+    meanDamage: number | null;
+}
+export interface CurrentSession {
+    /** Number of the game the squad is about to play (games so far + 1). */
+    nextGame: number;
+    gamesSoFar: number;
+    minutesSinceLast: number;
+    startedAt: number;
+}
+export interface RhythmAnalysis {
+    schemaVersion: typeof RHYTHM_SCHEMA_VERSION;
+    matches: number;
+    sessions: number;
+    sessionStats: {
+        medianGames: number | null;
+        longShare: number | null;
+        medianMinutes: number | null;
+    };
+    byIndex: GameIndexRow[];
+    byHour: HourRow[];
+    warmup: {
+        damage: Contrast;
+        top10: Contrast;
+    } | null;
+    /** Late versus early games of long sessions: negative = worse late. */
+    fatigue: {
+        damage: Contrast;
+        top10: Contrast;
+        sessions: number;
+    } | null;
+    /** The game after an early exit versus after any other game of the same session. */
+    tilt: {
+        damage: Contrast;
+        top10: Contrast;
+    } | null;
+    bestHour: {
+        hour: number;
+        top10: number;
+        matches: number;
+    } | null;
+    current: CurrentSession | null;
+    insights: string[];
+    notes: string[];
+}
+interface Game extends RhythmMatch {
+    index: number;
+    hour: number;
+    top10: boolean;
+}
+export declare function splitSessions(matches: readonly RhythmMatch[]): Game[][];
+export declare function analyzeRhythm(input: {
+    matches: readonly RhythmMatch[];
+    now?: number;
+}): RhythmAnalysis;
+export {};

package/dist/src/rhythm.js

@@ -0,0 +1,260 @@
+import { wilsonInterval } from './analytics.js';
+import { mulberry32, percentile, STYLE_BOOTSTRAP_SEED } from './style.js';
+export const RHYTHM_SCHEMA_VERSION = 1;
+/** A gap this long between two matches starts a new session. */
+export const SESSION_GAP_MINUTES = 40;
+export const RHYTHM_MIN_SESSIONS = 15;
+export const RHYTHM_BOOTSTRAP = 2000;
+/** Placements at or beyond this count as an early exit when looking for tilt. */
+export const BAD_PLACEMENT = 15;
+/** Sessions at least this long are used to compare their first and last games. */
+export const LONG_SESSION_GAMES = 8;
+export const RHYTHM_MIN_HOUR_MATCHES = 12;
+export const RHYTHM_HOUR_TIMEZONE = 'Asia/Shanghai';
+function hourOf(timestamp) {
+    const parts = new Intl.DateTimeFormat('en-GB', {
+        hour: '2-digit',
+        hourCycle: 'h23',
+        timeZone: RHYTHM_HOUR_TIMEZONE,
+    }).formatToParts(timestamp);
+    return Number(parts.find((part) => part.type === 'hour')?.value ?? 0);
+}
+const mean = (values) => values.length ? values.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / values.length : null;
+function median(values) {
+    if (!values.length)
+        return null;
+    const sorted = [...values].sort((left, right) => left - right);
+    const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
+    return sorted.length % 2 ? sorted[mid] : (sorted[mid - 1] + sorted[mid]) / 2;
+}
+export function splitSessions(matches) {
+    const ordered = [...matches]
+        .filter((match) => Number.isFinite(match.timestamp))
+        .sort((left, right) => left.timestamp - right.timestamp);
+    const sessions = [];
+    let current = [];
+    for (const match of ordered) {
+        const previous = current.at(-1);
+        if (previous && match.timestamp - previous.timestamp > SESSION_GAP_MINUTES * 60_000) {
+            sessions.push(current);
+            current = [];
+        }
+        current.push({
+            ...match,
+            index: current.length + 1,
+            hour: hourOf(match.timestamp),
+            top10: match.rank !== null && match.rank > 0 && match.rank <= 10,
+        });
+    }
+    if (current.length)
+        sessions.push(current);
+    return sessions;
+}
+/** Interval of a statistic over sessions resampled with replacement, so games of one night are not treated as independent. */
+function sessionBootstrap(sessions, statistic, seed) {
+    if (sessions.length < RHYTHM_MIN_SESSIONS)
+        return { low: null, high: null };
+    const rng = mulberry32(seed);
+    const draws = [];
+    for (let round = 0; round < RHYTHM_BOOTSTRAP; round += 1) {
+        const sample = Array.from({ length: sessions.length }, () => sessions[Math.floor(rng() * sessions.length)]);
+        const value = statistic(sample);
+        if (value !== null && Number.isFinite(value))
+            draws.push(value);
+    }
+    if (draws.length < RHYTHM_BOOTSTRAP * 0.8)
+        return { low: null, high: null };
+    draws.sort((left, right) => left - right);
+    return { low: percentile(draws, 0.025), high: percentile(draws, 0.975) };
+}
+function contrast(sessions, pick, measure, seed) {
+    const statistic = (sample) => {
+        const a = [];
+        const b = [];
+        for (const session of sample) {
+            const picked = pick(session);
+            a.push(...picked.a);
+            b.push(...picked.b);
+        }
+        const left = measure(a);
+        const right = measure(b);
+        return left !== null && right !== null ? left - right : null;
+    };
+    const all = { a: [], b: [] };
+    for (const session of sessions) {
+        const picked = pick(session);
+        all.a.push(...picked.a);
+        all.b.push(...picked.b);
+    }
+    const a = measure(all.a);
+    const b = measure(all.b);
+    const diff = a !== null && b !== null ? a - b : null;
+    const { low, high } = sessionBootstrap(sessions, statistic, seed);
+    return {
+        diff,
+        low,
+        high,
+        a,
+        b,
+        nA: all.a.length,
+        nB: all.b.length,
+        clear: low !== null && high !== null && (low > 0 || high < 0),
+    };
+}
+const damageOf = (games) => mean(games.map((game) => game.damage));
+const top10Of = (games) => games.length ? games.filter((game) => game.top10).length / games.length : null;
+export function analyzeRhythm(input) {
+    const sessions = splitSessions(input.matches);
+    const games = sessions.flat();
+    const result = {
+        schemaVersion: RHYTHM_SCHEMA_VERSION,
+        matches: games.length,
+        sessions: sessions.length,
+        sessionStats: {
+            medianGames: median(sessions.map((session) => session.length)),
+            longShare: sessions.length
+                ? sessions.filter((session) => session.length >= LONG_SESSION_GAMES).length /
+                    sessions.length
+                : null,
+            medianMinutes: median(sessions
+                .filter((session) => session.length >= 2)
+                .map((session) => (session.at(-1).timestamp - session[0].timestamp) / 60_000)),
+        },
+        byIndex: [],
+        byHour: [],
+        warmup: null,
+        fatigue: null,
+        tilt: null,
+        bestHour: null,
+        current: null,
+        insights: [],
+        notes: [
+            `一个时段 = 相邻两局间隔不超过 ${SESSION_GAP_MINUTES} 分钟的连续对局。`,
+            '区间按「整个时段」重抽样得到（同一晚的几局互相有关联，不能当作独立样本）；区间不含 0 才算有把握。',
+            '使用全部排位战绩，不受「仅看完整遥测」影响（时段需要连续的对局）；伤害是在场队员的人均伤害。',
+        ],
+    };
+    if (!games.length)
+        return result;
+    const maxIndex = 8;
+    for (let index = 1; index <= maxIndex; index += 1) {
+        const group = games.filter((game) => index === maxIndex ? game.index >= maxIndex : game.index === index);
+        if (!group.length)
+            continue;
+        const draws = (() => {
+            if (group.length < 20)
+                return { low: null, high: null };
+            const rng = mulberry32(STYLE_BOOTSTRAP_SEED + index);
+            const means = [];
+            for (let round = 0; round < 500; round += 1)
+                means.push(mean(Array.from({ length: group.length }, () => group[Math.floor(rng() * group.length)].damage)));
+            means.sort((left, right) => left - right);
+            return { low: percentile(means, 0.025), high: percentile(means, 0.975) };
+        })();
+        result.byIndex.push({
+            index,
+            orMore: index === maxIndex,
+            matches: group.length,
+            damage: { mean: damageOf(group), ...draws },
+            top10: wilsonInterval(group.filter((game) => game.top10).length, group.length),
+            medianPlacement: median(group.map((game) => game.rank).filter((rank) => rank !== null && rank > 0)),
+        });
+    }
+    const hours = new Map();
+    for (const game of games)
+        hours.set(game.hour, [...(hours.get(game.hour) ?? []), game]);
+    result.byHour = [...hours.entries()]
+        .sort((left, right) => left[0] - right[0])
+        .map(([hour, group]) => ({
+        hour,
+        matches: group.length,
+        top10: wilsonInterval(group.filter((game) => game.top10).length, group.length),
+        meanDamage: damageOf(group),
+    }));
+    const eligibleHours = result.byHour.filter((row) => row.matches >= RHYTHM_MIN_HOUR_MATCHES && row.top10.rate !== null);
+    const best = [...eligibleHours].sort((left, right) => right.top10.rate - left.top10.rate)[0];
+    result.bestHour = best
+        ? { hour: best.hour, top10: best.top10.rate, matches: best.matches }
+        : null;
+    if (sessions.length >= RHYTHM_MIN_SESSIONS) {
+        const warmPick = (session) => ({ a: session.slice(0, 1), b: session.slice(1) });
+        result.warmup = {
+            damage: contrast(sessions, warmPick, damageOf, STYLE_BOOTSTRAP_SEED + 101),
+            top10: contrast(sessions, warmPick, top10Of, STYLE_BOOTSTRAP_SEED + 103),
+        };
+        const long = sessions.filter((session) => session.length >= LONG_SESSION_GAMES);
+        if (long.length >= RHYTHM_MIN_SESSIONS) {
+            const latePick = (session) => ({ a: session.slice(-3), b: session.slice(0, 3) });
+            result.fatigue = {
+                sessions: long.length,
+                damage: contrast(long, latePick, damageOf, STYLE_BOOTSTRAP_SEED + 107),
+                top10: contrast(long, latePick, top10Of, STYLE_BOOTSTRAP_SEED + 109),
+            };
+        }
+        const tiltPick = (session) => ({
+            a: session.slice(1).filter((game, position) => {
+                const before = session[position];
+                return before.rank !== null && before.rank >= BAD_PLACEMENT;
+            }),
+            b: session.slice(1).filter((game, position) => {
+                const before = session[position];
+                return before.rank !== null && before.rank > 0 && before.rank < BAD_PLACEMENT;
+            }),
+        });
+        const tilt = {
+            damage: contrast(sessions, tiltPick, damageOf, STYLE_BOOTSTRAP_SEED + 113),
+            top10: contrast(sessions, tiltPick, top10Of, STYLE_BOOTSTRAP_SEED + 127),
+        };
+        if (tilt.damage.nA >= 20)
+            result.tilt = tilt;
+    }
+    const last = sessions.at(-1);
+    const now = input.now ?? Date.now();
+    const sinceLast = (now - last.at(-1).timestamp) / 60_000;
+    if (sinceLast >= 0 && sinceLast <= SESSION_GAP_MINUTES + 20)
+        result.current = {
+            nextGame: last.length + 1,
+            gamesSoFar: last.length,
+            minutesSinceLast: Math.round(sinceLast),
+            startedAt: last[0].timestamp,
+        };
+    // Findings: only what the intervals support, including the negative ones.
+    const pct = (value) => (value === null ? '—' : `${(value * 100).toFixed(0)}%`);
+    const warm = result.warmup;
+    if (warm) {
+        if (warm.damage.clear && warm.damage.diff !== null && warm.damage.diff < 0 && warm.damage.b) {
+            result.insights.push(`每个时段的第一局明显偏弱：人均伤害 ${Math.round(warm.damage.a ?? 0)}，之后各局 ${Math.round(warm.damage.b)}（低 ${Math.round((-warm.damage.diff / warm.damage.b) * 100)}%，区间 ${Math.round(warm.damage.low)} 到 ${Math.round(warm.damage.high)}）。建议先打一局低压力的对局热热手。`);
+        }
+        else if (warm.damage.low !== null)
+            result.insights.push('第一局的伤害和之后各局没有可靠差别，看不出需要热身。');
+        if (warm.top10.clear && warm.top10.diff !== null)
+            result.insights.push(`第一局的前十率 ${pct(warm.top10.a)}，之后各局 ${pct(warm.top10.b)}（差距区间 ${(warm.top10.low * 100).toFixed(0)} 到 ${(warm.top10.high * 100).toFixed(0)} 个百分点）。`);
+        else if (warm.top10.diff !== null &&
+            warm.top10.diff <= -0.05 &&
+            warm.top10.high !== null &&
+            warm.top10.high < 0.05)
+            result.insights.push(`第一局的前十率偏低（${pct(warm.top10.a)} 对 ${pct(warm.top10.b)}），但差距区间 ${(warm.top10.low * 100).toFixed(0)} 到 ${(warm.top10.high * 100).toFixed(0)} 个百分点刚好碰到 0，证据还不够，需要更多场次再下结论。`);
+    }
+    if (result.fatigue) {
+        const fatigue = result.fatigue;
+        if (fatigue.damage.clear || fatigue.top10.clear)
+            result.insights.push(`长时段（${LONG_SESSION_GAMES} 局以上）的最后 3 局${(fatigue.damage.diff ?? 0) < 0 ? '比前 3 局弱' : '比前 3 局强'}：人均伤害 ${Math.round(fatigue.damage.a ?? 0)} 对 ${Math.round(fatigue.damage.b ?? 0)}${(fatigue.damage.diff ?? 0) > 0 ? '（打得顺才会一直打下去，所以这不等于越打越强）' : ''}。`);
+        else if (fatigue.damage.low !== null)
+            result.insights.push(`没有发现疲劳效应：长时段（${fatigue.sessions} 个）的最后 3 局和前 3 局人均伤害 ${Math.round(fatigue.damage.a ?? 0)} 对 ${Math.round(fatigue.damage.b ?? 0)}，差距在误差内。`);
+    }
+    if (result.tilt) {
+        const tilt = result.tilt;
+        if (tilt.damage.clear || tilt.top10.clear)
+            result.insights.push(`早死（第 ${BAD_PLACEMENT} 名之后）的下一局${(tilt.damage.diff ?? 0) < 0 ? '更差' : '更好'}：人均伤害 ${Math.round(tilt.damage.a ?? 0)} 对 ${Math.round(tilt.damage.b ?? 0)}。`);
+        else if (tilt.damage.low !== null)
+            result.insights.push(`没有发现「上头」：早死后的下一局人均伤害 ${Math.round(tilt.damage.a ?? 0)}，其他局 ${Math.round(tilt.damage.b ?? 0)}，差距在误差内。`);
+    }
+    if (result.bestHour && eligibleHours.length >= 3) {
+        const overall = games.filter((game) => game.top10).length / games.length;
+        const bestRow = eligibleHours.find((row) => row.hour === result.bestHour.hour);
+        if (bestRow.top10.low !== null && bestRow.top10.low > overall)
+            result.insights.push(`${String(result.bestHour.hour).padStart(2, '0')}:00 前后状态最好：前十率 ${pct(result.bestHour.top10)}（${result.bestHour.matches} 场），高于全部时段的 ${pct(overall)}。`);
+    }
+    return result;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=rhythm.js.map

package/dist/src/rhythm.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/src/streaks.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+import { type RateEstimate } from './analytics.js';
+export declare const STREAK_SCHEMA_VERSION: 1;
+/** Two takedowns by the same player at most this far apart belong to one streak (one engagement). */
+export declare const STREAK_GAP_SECONDS = 60;
+/** Takedowns of one team at most this far apart belong to the same final push. */
+export declare const WIPE_GAP_SECONDS = 60;
+export declare const STREAK_MIN_MATCHES = 10;
+/** Exact source events for a detected chain/wipe; absolute seconds are converted to replay time by the caller. */
+export interface StreakMoment {
+    kind: 'streak' | 'wipe';
+    playerIds: string[];
+    start: number;
+    end: number;
+    eventIds: string[];
+    count: number;
+    observedTeamSize: number | null;
+}
+/** Multi-kill counts for one member in one match; a streak of n distinct victims lands in bucket min(n, 4). */
+export interface PlayerStreakMatch {
+    takedowns: number;
+    streaks: {
+        two: number;
+        three: number;
+        fourPlus: number;
+    };
+    /** Takedowns that were part of a streak of two or more. */
+    chainedTakedowns: number;
+    longest: number;
+    /** Members of wiped enemy teams this player took down, and wipes where this player took down every member. */
+    wipeTakedowns: number;
+    soloWipes: number;
+}
+export interface TeamWipe {
+    /** Members taken down in the final push and how many players the team had. */
+    wiped: number;
+    teamSize: number;
+    /** Tracked member who took down the most of them, and how many. */
+    lead: string;
+    leadCount: number;
+    solo: boolean;
+    phase: number | null;
+    durationSeconds: number;
+}
+export interface SquadWipedRecord {
+    /** Squad members taken down in our own final push. */
+    wiped: number;
+    /** True when every one of them was taken down by the same enemy team, or by one enemy player. */
+    singleTeam: boolean;
+    singlePlayer: boolean;
+}
+export interface StreakMatchStats {
+    players: Record<string, PlayerStreakMatch>;
+    wipes: TeamWipe[];
+    /** Null when the squad was not eliminated (won, or the end is not observed). */
+    squadWiped: SquadWipedRecord | null;
+    moments?: StreakMoment[];
+}
+/**
+ * Multi-kill streaks and team wipes from one raw payload. A takedown is a knock, or a kill without a prior knock;
+ * a team wipe is an enemy team whose final push (takedowns at most WIPE_GAP_SECONDS apart up to its last death)
+ * was taken down entirely by the tracked squad. Team kills and self-inflicted deaths are ignored.
+ */
+export declare function analyzeStreaks(payload: unknown, trackedIds: ReadonlySet<string>): StreakMatchStats;
+export interface StreakPlayerSummary {
+    accountId: string;
+    name: string;
+    matches: number;
+    takedowns: number;
+    two: number;
+    three: number;
+    fourPlus: number;
+    longest: number;
+    /** Share of takedowns that came inside a streak; how often one takedown leads straight into the next. */
+    chainedShare: RateEstimate | null;
+    /** Multi-kills (streaks of two or more) per ten matches. */
+    multiPerTen: number | null;
+    wipeTakedowns: number;
+    soloWipes: number;
+}
+export interface StreakSummary {
+    schemaVersion: typeof STREAK_SCHEMA_VERSION;
+    matches: number;
+    players: StreakPlayerSummary[];
+    wipes: {
+        total: number;
+        perMatch: number | null;
+        /** Matches with at least one wipe. */
+        matchShare: RateEstimate | null;
+        fullTeam: number;
+        solo: number;
+        bySize: Array<{
+            wiped: number;
+            count: number;
+        }>;
+        byStage: Array<{
+            stage: 'early' | 'mid' | 'late';
+            count: number;
+        }>;
+        medianSeconds: number | null;
+        /** Who took down the most players across wipes, and who led them. */
+        leaders: Array<{
+            accountId: string;
+            name: string;
+            wipeTakedowns: number;
+            led: number;
+            solo: number;
+        }>;
+    };
+    wiped: {
+        observed: number;
+        singleTeam: RateEstimate | null;
+        singlePlayer: number;
+    };
+    highlights: string[];
+    notes: string[];
+}
+export declare function summarizeStreaks(items: readonly StreakMatchStats[], names: ReadonlyMap<string, string>): StreakSummary;