@productbrain/cli 0.1.0-beta.3107 → 0.1.0-beta.3113

package/dist/scoreboard/diagnose.d.ts

@@ -6,41 +6,6 @@
  *   node scripts/sync-scoreboard-core.mjs
  * A content-hash drift gate (scripts/check-mcp-lib-drift.mjs) fails CI if this drifts.
  */
-/**
- * Flywheel scoreboard — the DIAGNOSIS LAYER (spec §2d), SHARED SSOT.
- *
- * This is the layer that turns a raw number into the agent closing the loop. It is a PURE
- * mapping (no I/O — no fs, no node, no Convex runtime) from the data-layer payload
- * (M1/M2/M3/materialization, from the internal `scoreboard` action) PLUS the CLI-computed M5
- * local-drift, to per-metric diagnoses: `{ status, reading, cause, nextAction }`.
- *
- * WHY THIS LIVES IN ITS OWN WORKSPACE PACKAGE (`@product-brain/scoreboard-core`): the diagnosis
- * is consumed by BOTH the `pb` CLI (`packages/cli`, pretty + --json) AND the Cortex page
- * (`src/routes/(app)/w/[slug]/scoreboard`). A shared workspace package is the repo's convention
- * for framework-agnostic logic two non-Convex surfaces share (mirrors `@product-brain/doc-ast`).
- * The CLI cannot import across the monorepo boundary at publish time, so it consumes this body
- * through a committed copy guarded by a content-hash drift check (the same pattern mcp-server uses
- * for `convex/lib/flags_core.ts` → `src/flags.ts`). The SvelteKit app imports it directly.
- *
- * NOTHING HERE TOUCHES fs/node/Convex — the CLI-only `computeLocalDrift` (which stats
- * `.productbrain/`) stays in `packages/cli/src/scoreboard/localDrift.ts`. `diagnoseM5` itself is
- * pure (it maps a LocalDriftM5 → diagnosis) and lives here; only the fs *collection* of that
- * LocalDriftM5 is CLI-only.
- *
- * HONESTY OVER FLATTERY (spec §0, §2c). The hard rules this layer encodes:
- *   - NO flip threshold is pinned yet (DEC-1282). Where a flip would decide ok/degraded, we
- *     render `awaiting` ("threshold unpinned — pin against live distribution"), NEVER an
- *     invented number. The RAW reading is always shown.
- *   - M4 (WP-487 Slice 2, FEAT-1374: the organic rework meter) is now IN the data payload —
- *     raw distribution only, `unmeasured` with nothing served yet, `awaiting` otherwise (no
- *     first-time-good floor is pinned), NEVER a fake green, NEVER a causality claim.
- *   - A STANDING `unmeasured` line for coaching/moat quality (TEN-2377): four green tiles ≠ a
- *     healthy moat. The board must not imply moat health.
- *   - Every `degraded`/`awaiting` carries a concrete `nextAction`.
- *
- * Pure + exported so the diagnosis unit tests assert the awaiting/unmeasured/degraded mapping
- * without any network or filesystem.
- */
 /** A metric's diagnosis status. */
 export type DiagnosisStatus = 'ok' | 'degraded' | 'awaiting' | 'unmeasured';
 export interface MetricDiagnosis {
@@ -67,12 +32,8 @@ export interface M1Payload {
     draftShare: number | null;
     windowMs: number;
     servedRowCount: number;
-    /**
-     * TEN-2449: rows that WERE rendered but fell outside M1's covered serve (`orient/cli/brief`).
-     * Optional so an older payload fails SOFT. When this is > 0 and the mix is empty, the operator
-     * has been serving — just not on the one path M1 measures — and the diagnosis must say so
-     * rather than repeat "drive a serve".
-     */
+    /** TEN-2449: rows rendered but outside M1's covered serve (`orient/cli/brief`). Optional so an
+     *  older payload fails SOFT; when >0 with an empty mix, say so instead of "drive a serve". */
     excludedOutOfCoverage?: number;
 }
 export interface M2Payload {
@@ -131,11 +92,9 @@ export interface M4Payload {
     };
 }
 /**
- * WP-499 Slice B (TEN-2743, §2.5): advisories/verdicts/detection-coverage/override-rate.
- * Mirrors `convex/scoreboard/aggregates.ts`'s `CoherenceResult` structurally (not imported,
- * same convention as the other *Payload shapes above). NO thresholds baked in (DEC-1282) —
- * `humanBar.meets` is the one legitimate bar-comparison field, read as-is from the server,
- * never a second verdict computed here.
+ * WP-499 Slice B (TEN-2743, §2.5): advisories/verdicts/detection-coverage/override-rate. Mirrors
+ * `convex/scoreboard/aggregates.ts`'s `CoherenceResult` structurally. NO thresholds baked in
+ * (DEC-1282) — `humanBar.meets` is read as-is from the server, never a second local verdict.
  */
 export interface CoherencePayload {
     openConflictCount: number;
@@ -143,8 +102,8 @@ export interface CoherencePayload {
     reviewed: number;
     real: number;
     falseAlarm: number;
-    /** PR #422 review (Codex, P2): reviewed/real/falseAlarm/humanBar above are a SAMPLE, not
-     *  a complete count, whenever this is true — render a qualifier, never present as complete. */
+    /** PR #422 review (P2): reviewed/real/falseAlarm/humanBar above are a SAMPLE (not complete)
+     *  whenever true — render a qualifier, never present as complete. */
     reviewedTruncated: boolean;
     humanBar: {
         meets: boolean;
@@ -174,73 +133,57 @@ export interface ScoreboardPayload {
     coherence: CoherencePayload;
 }
 /**
- * The CLI-computed M5 local-pull drift (A5). Produced by computeLocalDrift() (NOT the data
- * layer — DEC-1284). `null` fields mean the local `.productbrain/` projection (or the server
- * materialization) was unavailable; the diagnosis fails soft to `awaiting`.
+ * The CLI-computed M5 local-pull drift (A5). Produced by computeLocalDrift() (NOT the data layer
+ * — DEC-1284). `null` fields mean local/server data was unavailable; fails soft to `awaiting`.
  */
 export interface LocalDriftM5 {
-    /** Newest mtime across the local `.productbrain/` projection files, ms epoch. Null = absent. */
     localProjectionMtime: number | null;
-    /** Server-side projection generation time (materialization.latestMaterializedAt). */
     serverMaterializedAt: number | null;
-    /** How far the local pull lags the server projection, ms (server − local). Null when undeterminable. */
     localLagMs: number | null;
-    /** Absolute age of the local projection vs now, ms. Null when the projection is absent. */
     localAgeMs: number | null;
-    /** Set when `.productbrain/` could not be located/stat'd — diagnosis = awaiting, not a fake ok. */
     unavailableReason?: string;
 }
 /**
- * M1 — retrieval truth-state mix. The no-domain-share flip (INS-1775 floor) is UNPINNED, so the
- * status is `awaiting` whenever there is data to judge (we never invent the 50% floor). With zero
- * serves it is `unmeasured` (nothing served yet). The named cause for a high no-domain share is
- * "domains unratified".
+ * M1 — retrieval truth-state mix. The no-domain-share flip (INS-1775 floor) is UNPINNED — `awaiting`
+ * whenever there is data (never invent the 50% floor); `unmeasured` with zero serves.
  */
 export declare function diagnoseM1(m1: M1Payload): MetricDiagnosis;
 /**
- * M2 — ranking agreement (tests the unify integrity). This one HAS a clean structural signal:
- * post-unify, full parity (divergentBuckets === 0) is the EXPECTED steady state — that's `ok`.
- * A non-zero divergence IS the regression signal — `degraded` — and the M2-magnitude flip stays
- * unpinned, but the structural ok/degraded does not need a number (0 vs non-0 is exact).
+ * M2 — ranking agreement. A clean structural signal: post-unify full parity (0 divergent buckets)
+ * is the EXPECTED steady state (`ok`); non-zero divergence is the regression signal (`degraded`) —
+ * exact, no number to pin.
  */
 export declare function diagnoseM2(m2: M2Payload): MetricDiagnosis;
 /**
- * M3 — draft-to-SSOT rate. The in-session-ratify floor (ASM-45 rolling-20 window) is UNPINNED,
- * so a judged reading is `awaiting`. Zero captures in the window → `unmeasured`.
+ * M3 — draft-to-SSOT rate. The in-session-ratify floor (ASM-45 rolling-20 window) is PINNED
+ * per DEC-1513 (`M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR`) — a determinable reading renders a real `ok`/`degraded`
+ * verdict. Zero captures → `unmeasured`. An undeterminable rate (null) fails soft to `awaiting`.
  */
 export declare function diagnoseM3(m3: M3Payload): MetricDiagnosis;
 /**
  * M4 — organic rework meter (WP-487 Slice 2, FEAT-1374). Joins served governance against
- * later-reported rework signals within a frozen 72h window (TEN-2728) and reports RAW
- * distribution + a false-attribution counter-metric — never a verdict (DEC-1282 unchanged for
- * M4) and never a causality claim (spec §6: this is association, not "context served CAUSED
- * first-time-good"). `unmeasured` when nothing has been served in the window yet (no coverage
- * population to judge, mirrors diagnoseM1's zero-mix gate); `awaiting` whenever there IS data,
- * since no first-time-good floor is pinned yet — the raw share is always shown, never replaced
- * by an invented threshold.
+ * later-reported rework signals in a frozen 72h window (TEN-2728); RAW distribution + a
+ * false-attribution counter, never a verdict (DEC-1282) and never causality (association only).
+ * `unmeasured` with nothing served; `awaiting` otherwise (no floor pinned yet).
  */
 export declare function diagnoseM4(m4: M4Payload): MetricDiagnosis;
 /**
  * M5 — projection staleness, computed as LOCAL-PULL drift at the CLI (DEC-1284). The staleness-age
- * flip is UNPINNED, so a determinable reading is `awaiting`. When the local `.productbrain/`
- * projection (or the server materialization) is unavailable, the status is `unmeasured` with the
- * reason — fail-soft, never a fake ok.
+ * floor is PINNED per DEC-1513 (`M5_LOCAL_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS`) — a determinable reading renders a real
+ * `ok`/`degraded` verdict. Unavailable local/server data → `unmeasured` with the reason, fail-soft.
  */
 export declare function diagnoseM5(m5: LocalDriftM5): MetricDiagnosis;
 /**
  * M5 (server view) — the Cortex page has NO local filesystem, so it cannot compute the spec's
  * local-pull drift (DEC-1284). It reads only the server-side projection-generation building block
- * (`materialization.latestMaterializedAt` / age) the public action already returns — adding NO new
- * truth (spec §2d). This is deliberately a DIFFERENT, HONEST framing from `diagnoseM5`: it is
- * SERVER-generation age, never claimed to be the local-pull staleness the CLI measures. The
- * staleness-age flip is UNPINNED → `awaiting` when there is a materialization; `unmeasured` when
+ * (`materialization.latestMaterializedAt` / age) — adding NO new truth (spec §2d). Deliberately a
+ * DIFFERENT, HONEST framing from `diagnoseM5`: SERVER-generation age, never local-pull staleness.
+ * The staleness-age floor is PINNED per DEC-1513 (`M5_SERVER_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS`); `unmeasured` when
  * the workspace has never materialized.
  */
 export declare function diagnoseM5FromServer(materialization: MaterializationPayload): MetricDiagnosis;
-/**
- * The STANDING coaching/moat-quality `unmeasured` line (TEN-2377). It is NOT a tile with a number —
- * it is a permanent honesty marker so four green tiles are never read as "the moat is healthy".
- */
+/** The STANDING coaching/moat-quality `unmeasured` line (TEN-2377) — a permanent honesty marker
+ *  so four green tiles are never read as "the moat is healthy". */
 export declare function diagnoseCoachingMoat(): MetricDiagnosis;
 /** The full diagnosis bundle the CLI renders + emits in --json. */
 export interface ScoreboardDiagnosis {
@@ -252,15 +195,9 @@ export interface ScoreboardDiagnosis {
     /** Standing honesty marker — coaching/moat quality is unmeasured. */
     moat: MetricDiagnosis;
 }
-/**
- * diagnose — the whole mapping: data-layer payload + CLI-computed M5 local-drift → per-metric
- * diagnoses + the standing M4-awaiting + coaching-unmeasured lines. Pure.
- */
+/** diagnose — data-layer payload + CLI-computed M5 local-drift → per-metric diagnoses. Pure. */
 export declare function diagnose(payload: ScoreboardPayload, m5: LocalDriftM5): ScoreboardDiagnosis;
-/**
- * diagnoseFromServer — the Cortex-page mapping: it has the public action payload but NO local fs,
- * so M5 is the server-generation-age view (`diagnoseM5FromServer`) rather than the CLI local-pull
- * drift. Everything else is identical to `diagnose`. Pure, browser-safe.
- */
+/** diagnoseFromServer — Cortex has NO local fs, so M5 uses `diagnoseM5FromServer`'s
+ *  server-generation-age view instead of local-pull drift. Otherwise identical to `diagnose`. */
 export declare function diagnoseFromServer(payload: ScoreboardPayload): ScoreboardDiagnosis;
 //# sourceMappingURL=diagnose.d.ts.map

package/dist/scoreboard/diagnose.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/scoreboard/diagnose.js

@@ -6,34 +6,59 @@
  *   node scripts/sync-scoreboard-core.mjs
  * A content-hash drift gate (scripts/check-mcp-lib-drift.mjs) fails CI if this drifts.
  */
-// User-facing copy carries NO raw Chain IDs (chain-id-leak guard): the CLI prints `cause` /
-// `nextAction` / `reading` verbatim to any workspace's terminal, so an ID here would leak our
-// internal governance refs cross-tenant. The governing entry (the no-flip-threshold decision) is
-// cited in code comments only, never in these strings.
+/**
+ * Flywheel scoreboard — the DIAGNOSIS LAYER (spec §2d), SHARED SSOT.
+ *
+ * This is the layer that turns a raw number into the agent closing the loop. It is a PURE
+ * mapping (no I/O — no fs, no node, no Convex runtime) from the data-layer payload
+ * (M1/M2/M3/materialization, from the internal `scoreboard` action) PLUS the CLI-computed M5
+ * local-drift, to per-metric diagnoses: `{ status, reading, cause, nextAction }`.
+ *
+ * WHY THIS LIVES IN ITS OWN WORKSPACE PACKAGE (`@product-brain/scoreboard-core`): the diagnosis
+ * is consumed by BOTH the `pb` CLI (`packages/cli`, pretty + --json) AND the Cortex page
+ * (`src/routes/(app)/w/[slug]/scoreboard`). A shared workspace package is the repo's convention
+ * for framework-agnostic logic two non-Convex surfaces share (mirrors `@product-brain/doc-ast`).
+ * The CLI cannot import across the monorepo boundary at publish time, so it consumes this body
+ * through a committed copy guarded by a content-hash drift check (the same pattern mcp-server uses
+ * for `convex/lib/flags_core.ts` → `src/flags.ts`). The SvelteKit app imports it directly.
+ *
+ * NOTHING HERE TOUCHES fs/node/Convex — the CLI-only `computeLocalDrift` (which stats
+ * `.productbrain/`) stays in `packages/cli/src/scoreboard/localDrift.ts`. `diagnoseM5` itself is
+ * pure (it maps a LocalDriftM5 → diagnosis) and lives here; only the fs *collection* of that
+ * LocalDriftM5 is CLI-only.
+ *
+ * HONESTY OVER FLATTERY (spec §0, §2c). The hard rules this layer encodes:
+ *   - Most flip thresholds remain UNPINNED (DEC-1282): `awaiting`, NEVER an invented number;
+ *     the RAW reading is always shown. **Exception (DEC-1513, 2026-07-26):** M3's in-session
+ *     floor and M5's two age floors ARE pinned (`./floors.ts`) — `diagnoseM3`/`diagnoseM5`/
+ *     `diagnoseM5FromServer` render a real `ok`/`degraded` verdict. DEC-1282's
+ *     advisory-never-blocking semantics still hold — a pinned floor only changes `status`.
+ *   - M4 (WP-487 Slice 2, FEAT-1374: the organic rework meter) is now IN the data payload —
+ *     raw distribution only, `unmeasured` with nothing served yet, `awaiting` otherwise (no
+ *     first-time-good floor is pinned), NEVER a fake green, NEVER a causality claim.
+ *   - A STANDING `unmeasured` line for coaching/moat quality (TEN-2377): four green tiles ≠ a
+ *     healthy moat. The board must not imply moat health.
+ *   - Every `degraded`/`awaiting` carries a concrete `nextAction`.
+ *
+ * Pure + exported so the diagnosis unit tests assert the awaiting/unmeasured/degraded mapping
+ * without any network or filesystem.
+ */
+import { M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR, M5_LOCAL_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS, M5_SERVER_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS } from './floors.js';
+// User-facing copy carries NO raw Chain IDs (chain-id-leak guard) — the CLI prints `cause`/
+// `nextAction`/`reading` verbatim to any tenant's terminal; IDs are cited in comments only.
 const UNPINNED = 'threshold unpinned — pin against the live distribution';
-// WP-527 (Lane T Slice 2): PROPOSED (not pinned) floor values, drafted from the observed
-// distributions in docs/evals/PRESS-RELEASE-EVAL.md's Product-OS calibration runs — a proposal for
-// founder accept, never a committed threshold, and never evidence about any OTHER workspace calling
-// this shared function (no workspaceId here — PB is multi-tenant); the `cause` strings say
-// "Product-OS calibration" explicitly so the number is never misread as the caller's own history.
-// Status stays `awaiting` regardless (never ok/degraded from a proposal), per DEC-1282.
-// VISIBILITY GAP: reaches the `pb scoreboard` CLI (formatters/scoreboard.ts renders cause/
-// nextAction) but NOT Cortex — +page.svelte:171 renders only tile.reading + a static tooltip.
-// Surfacing PROPOSED state there is real, disclosed follow-up work, out of WP-527's scope.
-// M3 in-session-ratify: observed 0% in every Product-OS run so far — a conservative early bar.
-const M3_PROPOSED_IN_SESSION_FLOOR = 0.1;
-// M5 has TWO INCOMPARABLE age instruments (diagnoseM5's local-pull drift vs diagnoseM5FromServer's
-// server-generation age) — each gets its OWN single-observation calibration below, never a
-// cross-instrument "trend" (the bug this fixed: Run 1's local-age and Run 3's materialization-age
-// are different measurements, not two points on one series). Local-pull: only on-record reading is
-// 14.1d (Run 1). Server-generation: only on-record reading is ~5.1d (Run 3's materialization age).
-const M5_PROPOSED_LOCAL_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS = 10;
-const M5_PROPOSED_SERVER_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS = 7;
+// DEC-1513 (2026-07-26) pinned M3's and M5's floors — see ./floors.ts for values/rationale/
+// how-to-tune. VISIBILITY GAP (carried from WP-527): reaches the `pb scoreboard` CLI but NOT
+// Cortex (+page.svelte:171 renders only tile.reading) — disclosed follow-up, out of scope here.
+const DAY_MS = 1000 * 60 * 60 * 24;
+function isDeterminate(n) {
+    return typeof n === 'number' && Number.isFinite(n);
+}
 function pct(n) {
-    return n === null ? 'n/a' : `${(n * 100).toFixed(0)}%`;
+    return isDeterminate(n) ? `${(n * 100).toFixed(0)}%` : 'n/a';
 }
 function ms(n) {
-    if (n === null)
+    if (!isDeterminate(n))
         return 'n/a';
     const h = n / (1000 * 60 * 60);
     if (h < 1)
@@ -42,18 +67,23 @@ function ms(n) {
         return `${h.toFixed(1)}h`;
     return `${(h / 24).toFixed(1)}d`;
 }
+function pctPrecise(n, floorValue) {
+    if (!isDeterminate(n))
+        return 'n/a';
+    if (n === floorValue)
+        return pct(n);
+    const decimals = [0, 1, 2, 3].find((d) => (n * 100).toFixed(d) !== (floorValue * 100).toFixed(d)) ?? 3;
+    return `${(n * 100).toFixed(decimals)}%`;
+}
 /**
- * M1 — retrieval truth-state mix. The no-domain-share flip (INS-1775 floor) is UNPINNED, so the
- * status is `awaiting` whenever there is data to judge (we never invent the 50% floor). With zero
- * serves it is `unmeasured` (nothing served yet). The named cause for a high no-domain share is
- * "domains unratified".
+ * M1 — retrieval truth-state mix. The no-domain-share flip (INS-1775 floor) is UNPINNED — `awaiting`
+ * whenever there is data (never invent the 50% floor); `unmeasured` with zero serves.
  */
 export function diagnoseM1(m1) {
     const reading = `served=${m1.mix.total} · audited=${pct(m1.auditedShare)} · draft=${pct(m1.draftShare)} · ` +
         `no-domain=${pct(m1.noDomainShare)} (window ${ms(m1.windowMs)})`;
     if (m1.mix.total === 0) {
-        // TEN-2449: M1 counts ONE serve shape (`orient/cli/brief`). Naming start_pb here would loop
-        // the operator forever: that surface is uninstrumented, so serving it can never move M1.
+        // TEN-2449: M1 counts ONE serve shape; naming start_pb would loop the operator forever.
         const outOfCoverage = m1.excludedOutOfCoverage ?? 0;
         return {
             metric: 'M1',
@@ -77,10 +107,9 @@ export function diagnoseM1(m1) {
     };
 }
 /**
- * M2 — ranking agreement (tests the unify integrity). This one HAS a clean structural signal:
- * post-unify, full parity (divergentBuckets === 0) is the EXPECTED steady state — that's `ok`.
- * A non-zero divergence IS the regression signal — `degraded` — and the M2-magnitude flip stays
- * unpinned, but the structural ok/degraded does not need a number (0 vs non-0 is exact).
+ * M2 — ranking agreement. A clean structural signal: post-unify full parity (0 divergent buckets)
+ * is the EXPECTED steady state (`ok`); non-zero divergence is the regression signal (`degraded`) —
+ * exact, no number to pin.
  */
 export function diagnoseM2(m2) {
     const reading = `divergentBuckets=${m2.divergentBuckets} · fullParity=${m2.fullParity}${m2.task ? ` · task="${m2.task}"` : ''}`;
@@ -105,11 +134,12 @@ export function diagnoseM2(m2) {
     };
 }
 /**
- * M3 — draft-to-SSOT rate. The in-session-ratify floor (ASM-45 rolling-20 window) is UNPINNED,
- * so a judged reading is `awaiting`. Zero captures in the window → `unmeasured`.
+ * M3 — draft-to-SSOT rate. The in-session-ratify floor (ASM-45 rolling-20 window) is PINNED
+ * per DEC-1513 (`M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR`) — a determinable reading renders a real `ok`/`degraded`
+ * verdict. Zero captures → `unmeasured`. An undeterminable rate (null) fails soft to `awaiting`.
  */
 export function diagnoseM3(m3) {
-    const reading = `captured=${m3.capturedCount} · in-session=${pct(m3.inSessionRatifiedRate)} · ` +
+    const reading = `captured=${m3.capturedCount} · in-session=${pctPrecise(m3.inSessionRatifiedRate, M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR.value)} · ` +
         `ever=${pct(m3.everRatifiedRate)} (over ${m3.sessionsConsidered}/${m3.sessionWindow} sessions)`;
     if (m3.capturedCount === 0) {
         return {
@@ -121,27 +151,34 @@ export function diagnoseM3(m3) {
             nextAction: 'capture in-session (pb capture), then re-read after the human accepts in Cortex',
         };
     }
+    if (!isDeterminate(m3.inSessionRatifiedRate)) {
+        return {
+            metric: 'M3',
+            label: 'Draft-to-SSOT rate',
+            status: 'awaiting',
+            reading,
+            cause: `in-session ratify rate undeterminable — pinned floor ${pct(M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR.value)} cannot be compared`,
+            nextAction: 'capture in-session (pb capture), then re-read once a rate is computable',
+        };
+    }
+    const meets = m3.inSessionRatifiedRate >= M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR.value;
     return {
         metric: 'M3',
         label: 'Draft-to-SSOT rate',
-        status: 'awaiting',
+        status: meets ? 'ok' : 'degraded',
         reading,
-        // ASM-45 (the draft-graveyard hypothesis + rolling-20-session design) governs this metric —
-        // cited in comments; the user strings stay ID-free.
-        cause: `in-session ratify floor ${UNPINNED} (rolling-20-session design) — PROPOSED pin ${pct(M3_PROPOSED_IN_SESSION_FLOOR)}, awaiting founder accept (Product-OS calibration baseline, not this workspace's own history)`,
-        // Round 1 scoped `cause` but left `nextAction` — the formatter prints this verbatim too.
-        nextAction: `pin the in-session floor (Product-OS calibration proposal ${pct(M3_PROPOSED_IN_SESSION_FLOOR)}, not derived from this workspace, awaiting founder accept); if the rate stays below it, the draft-graveyard pattern is confirmed → accept/promote captures in Cortex`,
+        // ASM-45 + DEC-1513 govern this metric — cited in comments only (chain-id-leak guard).
+        cause: meets
+            ? `in-session ratify rate ${pctPrecise(m3.inSessionRatifiedRate, M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR.value)} meets the pinned floor ${pct(M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR.value)} (rolling-20-session design)`
+            : `in-session ratify rate ${pctPrecise(m3.inSessionRatifiedRate, M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR.value)} is below the pinned floor ${pct(M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR.value)} (rolling-20-session design) — the draft-graveyard pattern is confirmed`,
+        nextAction: meets ? '' : 'accept/promote captures in Cortex to raise the in-session ratify rate',
     };
 }
 /**
  * M4 — organic rework meter (WP-487 Slice 2, FEAT-1374). Joins served governance against
- * later-reported rework signals within a frozen 72h window (TEN-2728) and reports RAW
- * distribution + a false-attribution counter-metric — never a verdict (DEC-1282 unchanged for
- * M4) and never a causality claim (spec §6: this is association, not "context served CAUSED
- * first-time-good"). `unmeasured` when nothing has been served in the window yet (no coverage
- * population to judge, mirrors diagnoseM1's zero-mix gate); `awaiting` whenever there IS data,
- * since no first-time-good floor is pinned yet — the raw share is always shown, never replaced
- * by an invented threshold.
+ * later-reported rework signals in a frozen 72h window (TEN-2728); RAW distribution + a
+ * false-attribution counter, never a verdict (DEC-1282) and never causality (association only).
+ * `unmeasured` with nothing served; `awaiting` otherwise (no floor pinned yet).
  */
 export function diagnoseM4(m4) {
     const reading = `served=${m4.servedCount} (decided=${m4.decidedCount}, pending=${m4.pendingObservationCount}, ` +
@@ -164,21 +201,18 @@ export function diagnoseM4(m4) {
         label: 'Organic rework meter (first-time-good)',
         status: 'awaiting',
         reading,
-        // No first-time-good floor is pinned yet (this WP's job was to make a baseline possible, not
-        // to claim one — WP-C spec §5/§9). No causality claim: a served row followed by rework within
-        // the window is an ASSOCIATION, never asserted as "the served context caused the rework".
+        // No first-time-good floor pinned yet (WP-C spec §5/§9). ASSOCIATION only, never causality.
         cause: `first-time-good floor ${UNPINNED}; a high false-attribution rate means many rework signals have no served-context evidence to join against — read the share with that caveat, not as a verdict`,
         nextAction: 'pin the first-time-good floor once a predeclared observation window completes (WP-C spec §9); if false-attribution stays high, the pb-reported signal may be missing real rework events a CI/git signal would catch (spec §6 tripwire)',
     };
 }
 /**
  * M5 — projection staleness, computed as LOCAL-PULL drift at the CLI (DEC-1284). The staleness-age
- * flip is UNPINNED, so a determinable reading is `awaiting`. When the local `.productbrain/`
- * projection (or the server materialization) is unavailable, the status is `unmeasured` with the
- * reason — fail-soft, never a fake ok.
+ * floor is PINNED per DEC-1513 (`M5_LOCAL_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS`) — a determinable reading renders a real
+ * `ok`/`degraded` verdict. Unavailable local/server data → `unmeasured` with the reason, fail-soft.
  */
 export function diagnoseM5(m5) {
-    if (m5.unavailableReason || m5.localProjectionMtime === null) {
+    if (m5.unavailableReason || !isDeterminate(m5.localProjectionMtime)) {
         return {
             metric: 'M5',
             label: 'Projection staleness (local-pull drift)',
@@ -188,12 +222,9 @@ export function diagnoseM5(m5) {
             nextAction: 'run from a worktree with a materialized .productbrain/ (pb handshake), then re-read',
         };
     }
-    // The local projection exists, but with NO server materialization (e.g. missing/expired
-    // setup_receipt) there is no reference to diff against — the local-pull DRIFT (server−local,
-    // this metric's whole definition) is undeterminable. Report `unmeasured` (honesty over flattery)
-    // rather than `awaiting` with a `local-lag=n/a` that implies the drift is merely awaiting a
-    // threshold. local-age is still surfaced as the one signal we can honestly read.
-    if (m5.serverMaterializedAt === null || m5.localLagMs === null) {
+    // No server materialization → the local-pull DRIFT (server−local) is undeterminable —
+    // `unmeasured`, not `awaiting` with a misleading local-lag=n/a. local-age is still surfaced.
+    if (!isDeterminate(m5.serverMaterializedAt) || !isDeterminate(m5.localLagMs)) {
         return {
             metric: 'M5',
             label: 'Projection staleness (local-pull drift)',
@@ -206,26 +237,40 @@ export function diagnoseM5(m5) {
     const lag = m5.localLagMs;
     const age = m5.localAgeMs;
     const reading = `local-lag=${ms(lag)} (server−local) · local-age=${ms(age)}`;
+    if (!isDeterminate(age)) {
+        // Type-level fail-soft — undeterminable, never a fake ok/degraded.
+        return {
+            metric: 'M5',
+            label: 'Projection staleness (local-pull drift)',
+            status: 'awaiting',
+            reading,
+            cause: `local-age undeterminable — pinned staleness floor ${M5_LOCAL_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS.value}d cannot be compared`,
+            nextAction: 're-run pb handshake to re-pull the projection, then re-read',
+        };
+    }
+    const ageDays = age / DAY_MS;
+    const meets = ageDays <= M5_LOCAL_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS.value;
     return {
         metric: 'M5',
         label: 'Projection staleness (local-pull drift)',
-        status: 'awaiting',
+        status: meets ? 'ok' : 'degraded',
         reading,
-        cause: `staleness-age threshold ${UNPINNED} — PROPOSED pin ${M5_PROPOSED_LOCAL_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS}d, awaiting founder accept (Product-OS calibration: one on-record local-age reading, not a trend); this is the one metric where PB can be staler than the never-drifting CLAUDE.md file`,
-        nextAction: 're-run pb handshake to re-pull the projection if the lag/age looks high',
+        cause: meets
+            ? `local-age ${ms(age)} is at/under the pinned staleness floor ${M5_LOCAL_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS.value}d`
+            : `local-age ${ms(age)} exceeds the pinned staleness floor ${M5_LOCAL_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS.value}d — this is the one metric where PB can be staler than the never-drifting CLAUDE.md file`,
+        nextAction: meets ? '' : 're-run pb handshake to re-pull the projection',
     };
 }
 /**
  * M5 (server view) — the Cortex page has NO local filesystem, so it cannot compute the spec's
  * local-pull drift (DEC-1284). It reads only the server-side projection-generation building block
- * (`materialization.latestMaterializedAt` / age) the public action already returns — adding NO new
- * truth (spec §2d). This is deliberately a DIFFERENT, HONEST framing from `diagnoseM5`: it is
- * SERVER-generation age, never claimed to be the local-pull staleness the CLI measures. The
- * staleness-age flip is UNPINNED → `awaiting` when there is a materialization; `unmeasured` when
+ * (`materialization.latestMaterializedAt` / age) — adding NO new truth (spec §2d). Deliberately a
+ * DIFFERENT, HONEST framing from `diagnoseM5`: SERVER-generation age, never local-pull staleness.
+ * The staleness-age floor is PINNED per DEC-1513 (`M5_SERVER_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS`); `unmeasured` when
  * the workspace has never materialized.
  */
 export function diagnoseM5FromServer(materialization) {
-    if (materialization.latestMaterializedAt === null) {
+    if (!isDeterminate(materialization.latestMaterializedAt)) {
         return {
             metric: 'M5',
             label: 'Projection staleness (server generation age)',
@@ -236,35 +281,44 @@ export function diagnoseM5FromServer(materialization) {
         };
     }
     const age = materialization.materializationAgeMs;
+    if (!isDeterminate(age)) {
+        // Type-level fail-soft — undeterminable, never a fake ok/degraded.
+        return {
+            metric: 'M5',
+            label: 'Projection staleness (server generation age)',
+            status: 'awaiting',
+            reading: 'server-generation age=n/a (browser view: local-pull drift is CLI-only)',
+            cause: `server-generation age undeterminable — pinned staleness floor ${M5_SERVER_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS.value}d cannot be compared`,
+            nextAction: 're-run pb handshake to re-generate the projection, then re-read',
+        };
+    }
+    const ageDays = age / DAY_MS;
+    const meets = ageDays <= M5_SERVER_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS.value;
     return {
         metric: 'M5',
         label: 'Projection staleness (server generation age)',
-        status: 'awaiting',
+        status: meets ? 'ok' : 'degraded',
         reading: `server-generation age=${ms(age)} (browser view: local-pull drift is CLI-only)`,
-        cause: `staleness-age threshold ${UNPINNED} — PROPOSED pin ${M5_PROPOSED_SERVER_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS}d, awaiting founder accept (Product-OS calibration: one on-record server-generation-age reading, not a trend); this is the one metric where PB can be staler than the never-drifting CLAUDE.md file`,
-        nextAction: 're-run pb handshake to re-generate the projection if the age looks high',
+        cause: meets
+            ? `server-generation age ${ms(age)} is at/under the pinned staleness floor ${M5_SERVER_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS.value}d`
+            : `server-generation age ${ms(age)} exceeds the pinned staleness floor ${M5_SERVER_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS.value}d — this is the one metric where PB can be staler than the never-drifting CLAUDE.md file`,
+        nextAction: meets ? '' : 're-run pb handshake to re-generate the projection',
     };
 }
-/**
- * The STANDING coaching/moat-quality `unmeasured` line (TEN-2377). It is NOT a tile with a number —
- * it is a permanent honesty marker so four green tiles are never read as "the moat is healthy".
- */
+/** The STANDING coaching/moat-quality `unmeasured` line (TEN-2377) — a permanent honesty marker
+ *  so four green tiles are never read as "the moat is healthy". */
 export function diagnoseCoachingMoat() {
     return {
         metric: 'MOAT',
         label: 'Coaching / moat quality',
         status: 'unmeasured',
-        // The standing-unmeasured tension is TEN-2377; the real instrument is ASM-46's
-        // blind-padding-rate test. Both cited in comments, kept out of the user-facing strings.
+        // TEN-2377 / ASM-46's blind-padding-rate test — cited in comments only.
         reading: 'structurally unmeasured',
         cause: 'the coach skips decision/standard/business-rule (the WHY-moat types) — a counter would flatter the board',
         nextAction: 'do NOT read four green tiles as a healthy moat; the real instrument is the blind-padding-rate test',
     };
 }
-/**
- * diagnose — the whole mapping: data-layer payload + CLI-computed M5 local-drift → per-metric
- * diagnoses + the standing M4-awaiting + coaching-unmeasured lines. Pure.
- */
+/** diagnose — data-layer payload + CLI-computed M5 local-drift → per-metric diagnoses. Pure. */
 export function diagnose(payload, m5) {
     return {
         m1: diagnoseM1(payload.m1),
@@ -275,11 +329,8 @@ export function diagnose(payload, m5) {
         moat: diagnoseCoachingMoat(),
     };
 }
-/**
- * diagnoseFromServer — the Cortex-page mapping: it has the public action payload but NO local fs,
- * so M5 is the server-generation-age view (`diagnoseM5FromServer`) rather than the CLI local-pull
- * drift. Everything else is identical to `diagnose`. Pure, browser-safe.
- */
+/** diagnoseFromServer — Cortex has NO local fs, so M5 uses `diagnoseM5FromServer`'s
+ *  server-generation-age view instead of local-pull drift. Otherwise identical to `diagnose`. */
 export function diagnoseFromServer(payload) {
     return {
         m1: diagnoseM1(payload.m1),

package/dist/scoreboard/diagnose.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"diagnose.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/scoreboard/diagnose.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;GAOG;AAEH;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAoCG;AAEH,OAAO,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAAE,uBAAuB,EAAE,wBAAwB,EAAE,MAAM,aAAa,CAAC;AAoIrG,4FAA4F;AAC5F,4FAA4F;AAC5F,MAAM,QAAQ,GAAG,wDAAwD,CAAC;AAE1E,4FAA4F;AAC5F,6FAA6F;AAC7F,gGAAgG;AAChG,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;AACnC,SAAS,aAAa,CAAC,CAA4B;IACjD,OAAO,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,QAAQ,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AACrD,CAAC;AACD,SAAS,GAAG,CAAC,CAA4B;IACvC,OAAO,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC;AAC/D,CAAC;AACD,SAAS,EAAE,CAAC,CAA4B;IACtC,IAAI,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAAE,OAAO,KAAK,CAAC;IACpC,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IAC/B,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;QAAE,OAAO,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;IACrD,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE;QAAE,OAAO,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;IACtC,OAAO,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;AACnC,CAAC;AACD,SAAS,UAAU,CAAC,CAA4B,EAAE,UAAkB;IAClE,IAAI,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAAE,OAAO,KAAK,CAAC;IACpC,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,UAAU;QAAE,OAAO,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;IACpC,MAAM,QAAQ,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,UAAU,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;IACvG,OAAO,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;AAC3C,CAAC;AAED;;;GAGG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,UAAU,CAAC,EAAa;IACtC,MAAM,OAAO,GACX,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,KAAK,cAAc,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,YAAY,CAAC,YAAY,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,CAAC,KAAK;QAC3F,aAAa,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC;IACnE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,KAAK,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACvB,wFAAwF;QACxF,MAAM,aAAa,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,qBAAqB,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;QACpD,OAAO;YACL,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI;YACZ,KAAK,EAAE,2BAA2B;YAClC,MAAM,EAAE,YAAY;YACpB,OAAO;YACP,KAAK,EACH,aAAa,GAAG,CAAC;gBACf,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,aAAa,kFAAkF;gBACpG,CAAC,CAAC,8DAA8D;YACpE,UAAU,EAAE,oFAAoF;SACjG,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;IACD,OAAO;QACL,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI;QACZ,KAAK,EAAE,2BAA2B;QAClC,MAAM,EAAE,UAAU;QAClB,OAAO;QACP,KAAK,EAAE,yBAAyB,QAAQ,EAAE;QAC1C,+FAA+F;QAC/F,UAAU,EACR,gJAAgJ;KACnJ,CAAC;AACJ,CAAC;AAED;;;;GAIG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,UAAU,CAAC,EAAa;IACtC,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,oBAAoB,EAAE,CAAC,gBAAgB,iBAAiB,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC;IAChI,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,UAAU,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,gBAAgB,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QAC/C,OAAO;YACL,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI;YACZ,KAAK,EAAE,qCAAqC;YAC5C,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI;YACZ,OAAO;YACP,KAAK,EAAE,qEAAqE;YAC5E,UAAU,EAAE,EAAE;SACf,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;IACD,OAAO;QACL,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI;QACZ,KAAK,EAAE,qCAAqC;QAC5C,MAAM,EAAE,UAAU;QAClB,OAAO;QACP,KAAK,EAAE,6FAA6F;QACpG,6FAA6F;QAC7F,UAAU,EACR,mGAAmG;KACtG,CAAC;AACJ,CAAC;AAED;;;;GAIG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,UAAU,CAAC,EAAa;IACtC,MAAM,OAAO,GACX,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,iBAAiB,UAAU,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,qBAAqB,EAAE,mBAAmB,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK;QACjH,QAAQ,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,gBAAgB,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,kBAAkB,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,YAAY,CAAC;IAClG,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QAC3B,OAAO;YACL,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI;YACZ,KAAK,EAAE,oBAAoB;YAC3B,MAAM,EAAE,YAAY;YACpB,OAAO;YACP,KAAK,EAAE,6DAA6D;YACpE,UAAU,EAAE,iFAAiF;SAC9F,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;IACD,IAAI,CAAC,aAAa,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QAC7C,OAAO;YACL,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI;YACZ,KAAK,EAAE,oBAAoB;YAC3B,MAAM,EAAE,UAAU;YAClB,OAAO;YACP,KAAK,EAAE,wDAAwD,GAAG,CAAC,mBAAmB,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,qBAAqB;YAClH,UAAU,EAAE,yEAAyE;SACtF,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;IACD,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,qBAAqB,IAAI,mBAAmB,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC;IACpE,OAAO;QACL,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI;QACZ,KAAK,EAAE,oBAAoB;QAC3B,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU;QACjC,OAAO;QACP,uFAAuF;QACvF,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK;YACV,CAAC,CAAC,0BAA0B,UAAU,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,qBAAqB,EAAE,mBAAmB,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,2BAA2B,GAAG,CAAC,mBAAmB,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,8BAA8B;YAClL,CAAC,CAAC,0BAA0B,UAAU,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,qBAAqB,EAAE,mBAAmB,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,8BAA8B,GAAG,CAAC,mBAAmB,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,yEAAyE;QAClO,UAAU,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,uEAAuE;KACjG,CAAC;AACJ,CAAC;AAED;;;;;GAKG;AACH,MAAM,UAAU,UAAU,CAAC,EAAa;IACtC,MAAM,OAAO,GACX,UAAU,EAAE,CAAC,WAAW,aAAa,EAAE,CAAC,YAAY,aAAa,EAAE,CAAC,uBAAuB,IAAI;QAC/F,kBAAkB,EAAE,CAAC,yBAAyB,uBAAuB,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,kBAAkB,CAAC,GAAG;QAClG,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC,YAAY,gBAAgB,EAAE,CAAC,aAAa,cAAc,EAAE,CAAC,WAAW,GAAG;QACpF,aAAa,EAAE,CAAC,gBAAgB,CAAC,QAAQ,eAAe,EAAE,CAAC,gBAAgB,CAAC,oBAAoB,IAAI;QACpG,YAAY,EAAE,CAAC,gBAAgB,CAAC,aAAa,yBAAyB,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,oBAAoB,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;IACvG,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,WAAW,KAAK,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACzB,OAAO;YACL,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI;YACZ,KAAK,EAAE,wCAAwC;YAC/C,MAAM,EAAE,YAAY;YACpB,OAAO;YACP,KAAK,EAAE,iFAAiF;YACxF,UAAU,EAAE,gGAAgG;SAC7G,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;IACD,OAAO;QACL,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI;QACZ,KAAK,EAAE,wCAAwC;QAC/C,MAAM,EAAE,UAAU;QAClB,OAAO;QACP,4FAA4F;QAC5F,KAAK,EAAE,yBAAyB,QAAQ,+JAA+J;QACvM,UAAU,EACR,wOAAwO;KAC3O,CAAC;AACJ,CAAC;AA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package/dist/scoreboard/diagnose.test.d.ts

@@ -3,8 +3,9 @@
  *
  * Asserts the pure metric→{status,reading,cause,nextAction} mapping, with explicit coverage of
  * the awaiting / unmeasured / degraded / ok states and the honesty invariants:
- *   - No flip threshold is pinned (DEC-1282) → judged readings are `awaiting`, never an invented
- *     number, and the raw reading is always present.
+ *   - Most flip thresholds remain unpinned (DEC-1282) → judged readings are `awaiting`, never an
+ *     invented number, and the raw reading is always present. M3's in-session-ratify floor and
+ *     M5's two age floors are the pinned exception (DEC-1513, WP-525) — see below.
  *   - M4 (WP-487 Slice 2, FEAT-1374: the organic rework meter) reports raw distribution only —
  *     `unmeasured` with nothing served yet, `awaiting` otherwise, never a fake green, never a
  *     causality claim.

package/dist/scoreboard/diagnose.test.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"diagnose.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/scoreboard/diagnose.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;GAWG"}
+{"version":3,"file":"diagnose.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/scoreboard/diagnose.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;GAYG"}

package/dist/scoreboard/diagnose.test.js

@@ -3,8 +3,9 @@
  *
  * Asserts the pure metric→{status,reading,cause,nextAction} mapping, with explicit coverage of
  * the awaiting / unmeasured / degraded / ok states and the honesty invariants:
- *   - No flip threshold is pinned (DEC-1282) → judged readings are `awaiting`, never an invented
- *     number, and the raw reading is always present.
+ *   - Most flip thresholds remain unpinned (DEC-1282) → judged readings are `awaiting`, never an
+ *     invented number, and the raw reading is always present. M3's in-session-ratify floor and
+ *     M5's two age floors are the pinned exception (DEC-1513, WP-525) — see below.
  *   - M4 (WP-487 Slice 2, FEAT-1374: the organic rework meter) reports raw distribution only —
  *     `unmeasured` with nothing served yet, `awaiting` otherwise, never a fake green, never a
  *     causality claim.
@@ -76,38 +77,56 @@ describe('diagnoseM2', () => {
     });
 });
 describe('diagnoseM3', () => {
-    it('is awaiting when there are captures (floor unpinned)', () => {
+    it('is degraded when the in-session ratify rate is below the pinned floor (DEC-1513)', () => {
         const m3 = {
             capturedCount: 8,
             everRatifiedCount: 3,
             inSessionRatifiedCount: 1,
             everRatifiedRate: 0.375,
-            inSessionRatifiedRate: 0.125,
+            inSessionRatifiedRate: 0.05, // below the 10% pinned floor
             sessionWindow: 20,
             sessionsConsidered: 12,
         };
         const d = diagnoseM3(m3);
-        expect(d.status).toBe('awaiting');
+        expect(d.status).toBe('degraded');
         expect(d.reading).toContain('captured=8');
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/unpinned/i);
-        // WP-527 (Lane T Slice 2): a PROPOSED (not pinned) floor value now rides alongside the
-        // unpinned status — the tile must never claim ok/degraded from a proposal (status stays
-        // `awaiting` above), but the candidate number + "awaiting founder accept" must be visible.
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/PROPOSED pin 10%/);
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/awaiting founder accept/);
-        expect(d.nextAction).toMatch(/10%/);
-        // PR #477 review round 1 (codex P2): this is a SHARED function with no workspaceId — the
-        // calibration number must never read as if it came from the calling workspace's own
-        // history (a different tenant would see the same "every measured run" claim wrongly).
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/Product-OS calibration/);
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/not this workspace's own history/);
-        // PR #477 review round 2 (codex P2): round 1 only scoped `cause` — `nextAction` must be
-        // scoped too, since the CLI formatter prints it verbatim to every tenant just the same.
-        expect(d.nextAction).toMatch(/not derived from this workspace/);
-        // chain-id-leak guard: the user-facing strings carry no raw Chain IDs.
+        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/pinned floor/i);
+        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/10%/);
+        expect(d.cause).not.toMatch(/awaiting founder accept|PROPOSED pin/);
+        expect(d.nextAction).toMatch(/accept\/promote/i);
+        // chain-id-leak guard: the user-facing strings carry no raw Chain IDs (DEC-1513 is cited
+        // in code comments only, per this file's header — never interpolated into the string).
         expect(d.cause).not.toMatch(/\b[A-Z]{2,5}-\d+\b/);
         expect(d.nextAction).not.toMatch(/\b[A-Z]{2,5}-\d+\b/);
     });
+    it('is ok when the in-session ratify rate meets the pinned floor (DEC-1513)', () => {
+        const m3 = {
+            capturedCount: 8,
+            everRatifiedCount: 3,
+            inSessionRatifiedCount: 1,
+            everRatifiedRate: 0.375,
+            inSessionRatifiedRate: 0.125, // above the 10% pinned floor
+            sessionWindow: 20,
+            sessionsConsidered: 12,
+        };
+        const d = diagnoseM3(m3);
+        expect(d.status).toBe('ok');
+        expect(d.nextAction).toBe('');
+        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/pinned floor/i);
+    });
+    it('fails soft to awaiting when the in-session rate is undeterminable (null) despite captures', () => {
+        const m3 = {
+            capturedCount: 8,
+            everRatifiedCount: 3,
+            inSessionRatifiedCount: 1,
+            everRatifiedRate: 0.375,
+            inSessionRatifiedRate: null,
+            sessionWindow: 20,
+            sessionsConsidered: 12,
+        };
+        const d = diagnoseM3(m3);
+        expect(d.status).toBe('awaiting');
+    });
     it('is unmeasured with zero captures', () => {
         const m3 = {
             capturedCount: 0,
@@ -197,28 +216,37 @@ describe('diagnoseM5', () => {
         expect(d.status).toBe('unmeasured');
         expect(d.reading).toContain('no .productbrain/');
     });
-    it('is awaiting (threshold unpinned) when local drift is determinable', () => {
+    it('is degraded when local-age exceeds the pinned floor (DEC-1513, real: ~14.1d > 10d)', () => {
+        // 10d, not 7d: this is the LOCAL-pull instrument's own single-observation calibration
+        // (PR #477 review fix, codex P2 — a prior draft mixed local-age and server-generation-age
+        // readings as if they were one series; each instrument now gets its own honest number).
+        const DAY = 1000 * 60 * 60 * 24;
         const m5 = {
             localProjectionMtime: 1_000,
             serverMaterializedAt: 2_000,
             localLagMs: 1_000,
-            localAgeMs: 5_000,
+            localAgeMs: 14.1 * DAY,
         };
         const d = diagnoseM5(m5);
-        expect(d.status).toBe('awaiting');
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/unpinned/i);
+        expect(d.status).toBe('degraded');
+        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/pinned staleness floor 10d/);
         // The CLAUDE.md-can't-drift framing is preserved.
         expect(d.cause).toMatch(/CLAUDE\.md/);
-        // WP-527 (Lane T Slice 2): PROPOSED (not pinned) floor value, status stays `awaiting`.
-        // 10d, not 7d: this is the LOCAL-pull instrument's own single-observation calibration
-        // (PR #477 review fix, codex P2 — a prior draft mixed local-age and server-generation-age
-        // readings as if they were one series; each instrument now gets its own honest number).
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/PROPOSED pin 10d/);
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/awaiting founder accept/);
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/Product-OS calibration/);
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/not a trend/);
+        expect(d.cause).not.toMatch(/awaiting founder accept|PROPOSED pin|unpinned/i);
         expect(d.cause).not.toMatch(/\b[A-Z]{2,5}-\d+\b/);
     });
+    it('is ok when local-age is at/under the pinned floor (DEC-1513)', () => {
+        const DAY = 1000 * 60 * 60 * 24;
+        const m5 = {
+            localProjectionMtime: 1_000,
+            serverMaterializedAt: 2_000,
+            localLagMs: 1_000,
+            localAgeMs: 5 * DAY,
+        };
+        const d = diagnoseM5(m5);
+        expect(d.status).toBe('ok');
+        expect(d.nextAction).toBe('');
+    });
     it('is unmeasured (not awaiting) when the local projection exists but there is no server reference', () => {
         // Local projection present, but no server materialization to diff against → the local-pull
         // DRIFT (server−local) is undeterminable, so the honest status is unmeasured, not a misleading
@@ -236,23 +264,33 @@ describe('diagnoseM5', () => {
     });
 });
 describe('diagnoseM5FromServer', () => {
-    it('is awaiting (threshold unpinned) with its OWN server-generation-age PROPOSED value, distinct from diagnoseM5', () => {
-        // PR #477 review fix (codex P2): diagnoseM5 (local-pull drift) and diagnoseM5FromServer
-        // (server-generation age) are two DIFFERENT instruments — a shared "trend" number between
-        // them was miscalibration. Each carries its own single-observation proposal.
+    // PR #477 review fix (codex P2): diagnoseM5 (local-pull drift) and diagnoseM5FromServer
+    // (server-generation age) are two DIFFERENT instruments, each with its own pinned floor
+    // (DEC-1513) — 7d here, 10d for diagnoseM5 above. Never a shared "trend" number.
+    it('is ok when server-generation age is under its OWN pinned floor (DEC-1513, real: ~5.1d < 7d)', () => {
+        const DAY = 1000 * 60 * 60 * 24;
         const materialization = {
             latestMaterializedAt: 1_000,
-            materializationAgeMs: 2_000,
+            materializationAgeMs: 5.1 * DAY,
             now: 3_000,
         };
         const d = diagnoseM5FromServer(materialization);
-        expect(d.status).toBe('awaiting');
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/unpinned/i);
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/PROPOSED pin 7d/);
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/Product-OS calibration/);
-        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/server-generation-age reading/);
+        expect(d.status).toBe('ok');
+        expect(d.cause).toMatch(/pinned staleness floor 7d/);
+        expect(d.nextAction).toBe('');
         expect(d.cause).not.toMatch(/\b[A-Z]{2,5}-\d+\b/);
     });
+    it('is degraded when server-generation age exceeds its OWN pinned floor (DEC-1513)', () => {
+        const DAY = 1000 * 60 * 60 * 24;
+        const materialization = {
+            latestMaterializedAt: 1_000,
+            materializationAgeMs: 8 * DAY,
+            now: 3_000,
+        };
+        const d = diagnoseM5FromServer(materialization);
+        expect(d.status).toBe('degraded');
+        expect(d.cause).not.toMatch(/awaiting founder accept|PROPOSED pin|unpinned/i);
+    });
 });
 describe('diagnoseCoachingMoat', () => {
     it('is a standing unmeasured line — four green tiles != healthy moat (TEN-2377)', () => {

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package/dist/scoreboard/floors.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+/**
+ * SYNCED from packages/scoreboard-core/src/floors.ts — DO NOT EDIT HERE.
+ * Canonical SSOT for the flywheel scoreboard diagnosis (consumed by BOTH the published
+ * `pb` CLI and the Cortex page). The CLI cannot import the workspace package at publish time
+ * (tsc, no bundler), so it carries this committed copy. Edit the source, then run:
+ *   node scripts/sync-scoreboard-core.mjs
+ * A content-hash drift gate (scripts/check-mcp-lib-drift.mjs) fails CI if this drifts.
+ */
+/**
+ * Pinned scoreboard floors — DEC-1513 (founder accepted 2026-07-26, WP-525 kernel truth
+ * sweep).
+ *
+ * HOW TO TUNE: edit a `value` below and open ONE PR. This file is the single place these
+ * three numbers live — `packages/scoreboard-core/src/index.ts` imports and reads them,
+ * never redefines or re-derives them. After editing, run:
+ *   node scripts/sync-scoreboard-core.mjs
+ * to re-sync the published CLI copies (packages/cli/src/scoreboard/{diagnose,floors}.ts).
+ * `npm run check:mcp-lib-drift` (part of CI) fails the PR if a copy falls out of sync.
+ *
+ * NAMED SUCCESSOR (not built): a single shared, global calibration accepted from
+ * Product-OS's OWN observed distribution (docs/evals/PRESS-RELEASE-EVAL.md) — it is NOT
+ * proven to generalize to every tenant workspace. DEC-1513 accepts these three values as
+ * the workspace-wide floor with that explicit caveat; a future PER-WORKSPACE override is
+ * the named next step, not shipped here.
+ *
+ * DEC-1282 still governs the SEMANTICS: a diagnosis is advisory-never-blocking. Pinning
+ * these floors only lets diagnoseM3/diagnoseM5/diagnoseM5FromServer compute a real
+ * ok/degraded verdict instead of `awaiting` — it does not gate, block, or fail anything.
+ */
+/** A single pinned floor: the number plus why/when/who accepted it. */
+export interface PinnedFloor {
+    /** The pinned numeric floor. */
+    value: number;
+    /** Why this number, in one line — cites the calibration evidence, never invents one. */
+    rationale: string;
+    /** When the founder accepted it (ISO date). */
+    acceptedDate: string;
+    /** The Chain decision that accepted it. */
+    decision: string;
+}
+export declare const M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR: PinnedFloor;
+/** M5 has TWO INCOMPARABLE age instruments — see diagnoseM5 vs diagnoseM5FromServer in
+ *  index.ts. Each carries its OWN single-observation calibration; never treat one as a
+ *  proxy for the other or as two points on a shared trend. */
+export declare const M5_LOCAL_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS: PinnedFloor;
+export declare const M5_SERVER_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS: PinnedFloor;
+//# sourceMappingURL=floors.d.ts.map

package/dist/scoreboard/floors.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"floors.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/scoreboard/floors.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;GAOG;AAEH;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAoBG;AAEH,uEAAuE;AACvE,MAAM,WAAW,WAAW;IAC3B,gCAAgC;IAChC,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACd,wFAAwF;IACxF,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAClB,+CAA+C;IAC/C,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACrB,2CAA2C;IAC3C,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACjB;AAED,eAAO,MAAM,mBAAmB,EAAE,WAOjC,CAAC;AAEF;;8DAE8D;AAC9D,eAAO,MAAM,uBAAuB,EAAE,WAOrC,CAAC;AAEF,eAAO,MAAM,wBAAwB,EAAE,WAOtC,CAAC"}

package/dist/scoreboard/floors.js

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+/**
+ * SYNCED from packages/scoreboard-core/src/floors.ts — DO NOT EDIT HERE.
+ * Canonical SSOT for the flywheel scoreboard diagnosis (consumed by BOTH the published
+ * `pb` CLI and the Cortex page). The CLI cannot import the workspace package at publish time
+ * (tsc, no bundler), so it carries this committed copy. Edit the source, then run:
+ *   node scripts/sync-scoreboard-core.mjs
+ * A content-hash drift gate (scripts/check-mcp-lib-drift.mjs) fails CI if this drifts.
+ */
+export const M3_IN_SESSION_FLOOR = {
+    value: 0.1,
+    rationale: "Product-OS calibration baseline (docs/evals/PRESS-RELEASE-EVAL.md): in-session ratify rate observed 0% " +
+        'in every Product-OS run so far — a conservative early bar, not derived from any other workspace\'s history.',
+    acceptedDate: '2026-07-26',
+    decision: 'DEC-1513',
+};
+/** M5 has TWO INCOMPARABLE age instruments — see diagnoseM5 vs diagnoseM5FromServer in
+ *  index.ts. Each carries its OWN single-observation calibration; never treat one as a
+ *  proxy for the other or as two points on a shared trend. */
+export const M5_LOCAL_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS = {
+    value: 10,
+    rationale: 'Product-OS calibration: one on-record local-pull-drift age reading (14.1d, Run 1, docs/evals/' +
+        "PRESS-RELEASE-EVAL.md) — a single observation, not a trend.",
+    acceptedDate: '2026-07-26',
+    decision: 'DEC-1513',
+};
+export const M5_SERVER_AGE_FLOOR_DAYS = {
+    value: 7,
+    rationale: 'Product-OS calibration: one on-record server-generation-age reading (~5.1d, Run 3\'s materialization age, ' +
+        'docs/evals/PRESS-RELEASE-EVAL.md) — a single observation, not a trend.',
+    acceptedDate: '2026-07-26',
+    decision: 'DEC-1513',
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=floors.js.map

package/dist/scoreboard/floors.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"floors.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/scoreboard/floors.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;GAOG;AAoCH,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,mBAAmB,GAAgB;IAC/C,KAAK,EAAE,GAAG;IACV,SAAS,EACR,yGAAyG;QACzG,6GAA6G;IAC9G,YAAY,EAAE,YAAY;IAC1B,QAAQ,EAAE,UAAU;CACpB,CAAC;AAEF;;8DAE8D;AAC9D,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,uBAAuB,GAAgB;IACnD,KAAK,EAAE,EAAE;IACT,SAAS,EACR,+FAA+F;QAC/F,6DAA6D;IAC9D,YAAY,EAAE,YAAY;IAC1B,QAAQ,EAAE,UAAU;CACpB,CAAC;AAEF,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,wBAAwB,GAAgB;IACpD,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;IACR,SAAS,EACR,4GAA4G;QAC5G,wEAAwE;IACzE,YAAY,EAAE,YAAY;IAC1B,QAAQ,EAAE,UAAU;CACpB,CAAC"}

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@productbrain/cli",
-  "version": "0.1.0-beta.3107",
+  "version": "0.1.0-beta.3113",
   "description": "Product Brain — Chain knowledge and write-back CLI",
   "type": "module",
   "bin": {