@polderlabs/bizar 10.7.0 → 10.7.2

package/.claude/skills/thinking-model-router/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: thinking-model-router
+description: Route to the right mental model based on your domain and problem type. The single entry point for all thinking skills.
+---
+
+# Model Router
+
+## Overview
+
+This is the **master routing skill** for all mental models. Instead of knowing 38 frameworks, start here. Identify your domain and problem type, and this skill points you to the right model(s). Think of it as the "which tool do I use?" guide.
+
+**Core Principle:** Don't memorize models—memorize how to find the right one. Domain + Problem Type → Model.
+
+## Short-Circuit: Skip the Router
+
+**If you already know the right model, invoke it directly — don't route.** This skill is for when you're *unsure* which model fits. If the problem obviously calls for a specific model (e.g., "where's the bottleneck?" → theory-of-constraints; "how would an attacker break this?" → red-team), go straight to it. Routing is overhead you only pay when the match isn't obvious. Likewise, if no model clearly helps, just reason directly — don't force one.
+
+## Quick Router
+
+### Step 1: What's Your Domain?
+
+| Domain | You're working on... |
+|--------|---------------------|
+| **Coding/Debugging** | Bugs, errors, performance issues, root cause |
+| **Architecture** | System design, technical decisions, scalability |
+| **Product** | Features, user needs, prioritization, roadmap |
+| **Business Strategy** | Competition, growth, market, organization |
+| **Personal Decisions** | Career, life choices, major commitments |
+| **Abstract/Analytical** | Arguments, ideas, theories, pure reasoning |
+| **Risk/Safety** | What could go wrong, preparation, resilience |
+| **Innovation** | New ideas, breakthroughs, creative solutions |
+
+### Step 2: What's Your Problem Type?
+
+| Type | You need to... |
+|------|----------------|
+| **Diagnose** | Find root cause, understand why |
+| **Decide** | Choose between options |
+| **Understand** | Grasp how something works |
+| **Create** | Generate new solutions |
+| **Evaluate** | Judge quality or validity |
+| **Predict** | Forecast outcomes |
+| **Optimize** | Improve performance |
+
+---
+
+## Domain → Model Maps
+
+### 🖥️ Coding & Debugging
+
+```
+PROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+Bug with unknown cause           → Scientific Method, 5 Whys Plus
+Performance degradation          → Theory of Constraints, Systems Thinking
+Spans multiple services          → Systems Thinking, Feedback Loops
+Incident postmortem              → 5 Whys Plus, Systems Thinking
+Flaky/intermittent behavior      → Scientific Method (hypothesis testing)
+"It works on my machine"         → Map-Territory (model vs reality gap)
+```
+
+**Default for debugging:** Start with **5 Whys Plus**, escalate to **Systems Thinking** if it spans components.
+
+---
+
+### 🏗️ Architecture & Technical Decisions
+
+```
+PROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+Technology choice                → Lindy Effect, Reversibility
+Build vs buy                     → Opportunity Cost, First Principles
+Scalability design               → Systems Thinking, Leverage Points
+Microservices vs monolith        → Cynefin, Reversibility
+Database selection               → Lindy Effect, Theory of Constraints
+API design tradeoffs             → TRIZ (resolve contradictions)
+Should we rewrite?               → Second-Order, Opportunity Cost
+```
+
+**Default for architecture:** Start with **Reversibility** (is this Type 1 or Type 2?), then **Systems Thinking** for interconnections.
+
+---
+
+### 📦 Product & Feature Development
+
+```
+PROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+What should we build?            → Jobs to be Done
+Feature prioritization           → Opportunity Cost, Theory of Constraints
+Why aren't users engaging?       → Jobs to be Done, 5 Whys Plus
+New product exploration          → Effectuation, First Principles
+Should we pivot?                 → Regret Minimization, Reversibility
+Product-market fit               → Jobs to be Done, Bayesian
+Roadmap planning                 → Theory of Constraints, Opportunity Cost
+A/B test interpretation          → Bayesian, Probabilistic
+```
+
+**Default for product:** Start with **Jobs to be Done** (what job is the user hiring this for?).
+
+---
+
+### 📈 Business Strategy
+
+```
+PROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+Competitive analysis             → Red Team, Second-Order
+Market entry                     → Cynefin, Effectuation
+Growth strategy                  → Feedback Loops, Leverage Points
+Organizational dysfunction       → Archetypes, Systems Thinking
+Resource allocation              → Theory of Constraints, Opportunity Cost
+Startup strategy                 → Effectuation, Margin of Safety
+M&A evaluation                   → Pre-mortem, Steel-manning
+Pricing decisions                → First Principles, Fermi Estimation
+```
+
+**Default for strategy:** Start with **Cynefin** (what domain is this problem in?), then match approach.
+
+---
+
+### 🧑 Personal & Career Decisions
+
+```
+PROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+Should I take this job?          → Regret Minimization, Reversibility
+Career direction                 → Circle of Competence, Regret Minimization
+Major life decision              → Regret Minimization, Pre-mortem
+Learning what to learn           → Circle of Competence, Lindy Effect
+Negotiation prep                 → Steel-manning, Red Team
+Should I start a company?        → Effectuation, Margin of Safety, Pre-mortem
+Time allocation                  → Opportunity Cost, Theory of Constraints
+```
+
+**Default for personal:** Start with **Regret Minimization** (what will 80-year-old you think?).
+
+---
+
+### 🧠 Abstract & Analytical Thinking
+
+```
+PROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+Evaluating an argument           → Steel-manning, Bayesian
+Challenging assumptions          → First Principles, Socratic
+Estimating unknowns              → Fermi Estimation, Probabilistic
+Updating beliefs                 → Bayesian, Probabilistic
+Exploring edge cases             → Thought Experiment, Inversion
+Finding logical flaws            → Inversion, Steel-manning
+Complex causation                → Systems Thinking, Feedback Loops
+Philosophical questions          → Thought Experiment, First Principles
+```
+
+**Default for abstract:** Start with **Steel-manning** (argue the strongest opposing view first).
+
+---
+
+### ⚠️ Risk & Safety
+
+```
+PROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+What could go wrong?             → Pre-mortem, Red Team
+Security review                  → Red Team, Inversion
+Disaster preparation             → Pre-mortem, Margin of Safety
+Avoiding catastrophic failure    → Margin of Safety, Via Negativa
+Stress-testing plans             → Red Team, Pre-mortem
+Probability of failure           → Probabilistic, Bayesian
+Building resilience              → Via Negativa, Margin of Safety
+```
+
+**Default for risk:** Start with **Pre-mortem** (assume failure, explain why).
+
+---
+
+### 💡 Innovation & Creativity
+
+```
+PROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)
+─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+Breakthrough needed              → First Principles, TRIZ
+Stuck on contradictions          → TRIZ
+Limited resources                → Effectuation, Via Negativa
+Simplification                   → Via Negativa, Occam's Razor
+Challenging "impossible"         → First Principles, TRIZ
+New market creation              → Effectuation, Jobs to be Done
+Removing complexity              → Via Negativa, Occam's Razor
+```
+
+**Default for innovation:** Start with **First Principles** (strip to fundamentals, rebuild).
+
+---
+
+## Quick Reference Card
+
+```
+┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
+│                    MENTAL MODEL QUICK ROUTER                     │
+├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
+│                                                                  │
+│  "Why is this broken?"        → 5 Whys Plus, Scientific Method  │
+│  "How does this system work?" → Systems Thinking, Feedback Loops│
+│  "What should we build?"      → Jobs to be Done                 │
+│  "Should I do this?"          → Reversibility, Regret Min       │
+│  "What could go wrong?"       → Pre-mortem, Red Team            │
+│  "How do I innovate?"         → First Principles, TRIZ          │
+│  "What's the probability?"    → Bayesian, Probabilistic         │
+│  "Where's the bottleneck?"    → Theory of Constraints           │
+│  "What am I giving up?"       → Opportunity Cost                │
+│  "Is this argument valid?"    → Steel-manning                   │
+│  "Will this technology last?" → Lindy Effect                    │
+│  "How complex is this?"       → Cynefin                         │
+│  "What to remove?"            → Via Negativa                    │
+│  "Is this safe enough?"       → Margin of Safety                │
+│                                                                  │
+└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
+```
+
+## Decision Flow
+
+```
+START HERE
+    │
+    ▼
+┌─────────────────────┐
+│ What's your domain? │
+└──────────┬──────────┘
+           │
+     ┌─────┴─────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┐
+     ▼           ▼          ▼          ▼          ▼
+  Coding    Architecture  Product   Strategy   Personal
+     │           │          │          │          │
+     ▼           ▼          ▼          ▼          ▼
+┌─────────────────────┐
+│ What problem type?  │
+│ Diagnose/Decide/    │
+│ Understand/Create/  │
+│ Evaluate/Predict    │
+└──────────┬──────────┘
+           │
+           ▼
+┌─────────────────────┐
+│ Look up in domain   │
+│ table above         │
+└──────────┬──────────┘
+           │
+           ▼
+┌─────────────────────┐
+│ Single model enough?│
+└──────────┬──────────┘
+           │
+    ┌──────┴──────┐
+    ▼             ▼
+   YES           NO
+    │             │
+    ▼             ▼
+ Apply it    Use Model Combination
+             (Sequential/Parallel/Nested)
+```
+
+## Model Inventory by Category
+
+### Diagnostic Models (Find root cause)
+- `5 Whys Plus` - Iterative "why" with bias guards
+- `Scientific Method` - Hypothesis → Test → Learn
+- `Kepner-Tregoe` - Systematic problem/decision analysis
+
+### Decision Models (Choose wisely)
+- `Reversibility` - Type 1 vs Type 2 decisions
+- `Regret Minimization` - What will future-you think?
+- `Opportunity Cost` - What are you giving up?
+- `Bayesian` - Update beliefs with evidence
+- `Probabilistic` - Calibrated probability estimates
+
+### Systems Models (Understand interconnections)
+- `Systems Thinking` - Feedback, emergence, non-linearity
+- `Feedback Loops` - Reinforcing and balancing loops
+- `Theory of Constraints` - Find and exploit the bottleneck
+- `Leverage Points` - Where small changes have big effects
+- `Archetypes` - Recurring system patterns
+
+### Risk Models (Prepare for failure)
+- `Pre-mortem` - Assume failure, explain why
+- `Red Team` - Attack your own plan
+- `Margin of Safety` - Build in buffers
+- `Inversion` - Identify paths to failure, avoid them
+
+### Innovation Models (Create breakthroughs)
+- `First Principles` - Strip to fundamentals, rebuild
+- `TRIZ` - Resolve technical contradictions
+- `Effectuation` - Start with means, not goals
+- `Via Negativa` - Improve by removing
+
+### Evaluation Models (Judge quality)
+- `Steel-manning` - Argue strongest opposing view
+- `Lindy Effect` - Older = likely to last longer
+- `Circle of Competence` - Know your expertise boundaries
+- `Occam's Razor` - Prefer simpler explanations
+
+### Context Models (Match approach to situation)
+- `Cynefin` - Clear/Complicated/Complex/Chaotic domains
+- `Model Selection` - Choose the right model
+- `Model Combination` - Use multiple models together
+
+### Product Models (Build the right thing)
+- `Jobs to be Done` - What job is user hiring this for?
+- `Thought Experiment` - Structured imagination
+
+### Estimation Models (Size unknowns)
+- `Fermi Estimation` - Order-of-magnitude calculations
+
+## When to Combine Models
+
+Use **Model Combination** when:
+
+| Situation | Combination Pattern | Example |
+|-----------|--------------------| --------|
+| High-stakes decision | Sequential | Reversibility → Pre-mortem → Opportunity Cost |
+| System diagnosis | Nested | Cynefin (macro) → ToC (meso) → OODA (micro) |
+| Validating strategy | Parallel | Red Team + Steel-manning + Second-Order |
+| Innovation under constraints | Sequential | First Principles → TRIZ → Effectuation |
+| Career decision | Temporal | 5 Whys (past) → Circle of Competence (present) → Regret Min (future) |
+
+## Template
+
+```markdown
+# Model Router Analysis
+
+## Context
+Domain: [Coding/Architecture/Product/Strategy/Personal/Abstract/Risk/Innovation]
+Problem: [Brief description]
+Problem Type: [Diagnose/Decide/Understand/Create/Evaluate/Predict/Optimize]
+
+## Routed Models
+Primary: [Main model to use]
+Secondary: [If needed]
+Combination pattern: [Sequential/Parallel/Nested/None]
+
+## Application
+[Apply the selected model(s) here]
+
+## Verification
+- [ ] Domain correctly identified
+- [ ] Problem type matches
+- [ ] Model fits the situation
+- [ ] Considered if combination needed
+```
+
+## Key Questions
+
+- "What domain am I operating in?"
+- "What type of problem is this—diagnose, decide, understand, create, or evaluate?"
+- "What's the default model for this domain + type?"
+- "Does one model cover it, or do I need to combine?"
+- "Am I using a model because it fits, or because it's familiar?"
+
+---
+
+**Remember:** You don't need to know all 38 models. You need to know how to find the right one. Start with domain, identify problem type, look it up, apply. That's it.

package/.claude/skills/thinking-model-selection/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,341 @@
+---
+name: thinking-model-selection
+description: Choose the right mental model for the problem at hand. Use when facing new problems, when current approaches fail, or when you need to match tool to context.
+---
+
+# Model Selection
+
+> **Overlaps thinking-model-router.** If you already know which model fits, skip routing entirely and just invoke that model. If you don't, **thinking-model-router** is the single entry point — start there. This skill goes deeper on *how* to classify a problem and *when to abandon* a model once chosen. (Audit recommends merging this into thinking-model-router; for now, prefer the router as the front door.)
+
+## Overview
+
+Every mental model has a domain where it excels and domains where it fails. Model selection is the meta-skill of recognizing which model fits which problem. The expert doesn't just know many models—they know when to apply each one. Using the wrong model is often worse than using no model at all.
+
+**Core Principle:** The map is not the territory. Choose the map that best serves your journey.
+
+## When to Use
+
+- Facing a new problem type
+- Current approach isn't working
+- Multiple stakeholders suggest different frameworks
+- Deciding how to structure analysis
+- Teaching others which tools to use
+- Building decision-making processes
+
+Decision flow:
+
+```
+Facing a problem?
+  → Have you identified the problem type? → no → CLASSIFY THE PROBLEM FIRST
+  → Does your usual model fit? → no → CONSIDER ALTERNATIVES
+  → Are you using a model by habit? → yes → QUESTION THE FIT
+```
+
+## When NOT to Use
+
+- **You don't know which thinking tool to reach for.** Start with `thinking-model-router` — it is the single entry point that routes to the right skill. This skill goes deeper on *how* to classify problems and match models, but only after the router has narrowed the field.
+- **You've already classified the problem type.** If you know it's a debugging problem, just invoke `thinking-scientific-method` or `thinking-five-whys-plus` directly. Don't run a full model-selection exercise to confirm what you already know.
+- **The problem is routine and your default approach fits.** Model selection adds overhead; on a familiar problem, use the model you know works.
+- **You're tempted to run this as a first step on every task.** That turns a meta-skill into a tax. Most tasks don't need model selection — they need execution. Reserve this for when your usual approach has demonstrably failed.
+
+> **Redirect:** For nearly all cases, start with `thinking-model-router` — it classifies the problem and dispatches to the right skill in one pass. This skill is the reference for *how* that classification works, not a replacement for the router.
+
+## Trigger Card
+
+When your usual problem-solving approach has demonstrably failed and you need to match a different tool to the task:
+
+1. **Classify the problem:** Diagnostic / Decision / Understanding / Creative / Evaluation.
+2. **Check the constraint:** Time pressure? Information gaps? High stakes? Complexity?
+3. **Match:** Use the Problem-Model Matching table below to find the category → select the specific model.
+4. **Set an exit criterion:** If no insight in 15+ minutes or key facts don't fit, switch.
+
+If you don't know which approach to use at all, start with `thinking-model-router` — it does the classification and dispatch in one pass.
+
+## Problem-Model Matching
+
+### Step 1: Classify the Problem
+
+```markdown
+## Problem Classification
+
+Problem: [Describe the problem]
+
+Problem dimensions:
+| Dimension | Assessment |
+|-----------|------------|
+| Predictability | Can outcomes be predicted? [High/Medium/Low] |
+| Complexity | How many interacting parts? [Simple/Complicated/Complex] |
+| Time horizon | When do consequences matter? [Immediate/Short/Long] |
+| Reversibility | Can decisions be undone? [Easily/With difficulty/Not at all] |
+| Information | How much do you know? [Complete/Partial/Minimal] |
+| Stakeholders | Who's affected? [Individual/Team/Organization/Society] |
+```
+
+### Step 2: Match to Model Categories
+
+```markdown
+## Model Category Matching
+
+Based on classification, which category fits?
+
+| Problem Type | Model Category | Examples |
+|--------------|----------------|----------|
+| Root cause unknown | Diagnostic models | 5 Whys, Scientific Method, Kepner-Tregoe |
+| Decision under uncertainty | Probabilistic models | Bayesian, Expected Value, Regret Minimization |
+| System behavior | Systems models | Feedback Loops, Leverage Points, Archetypes |
+| Cognitive bias risk | Debiasing models | Pre-mortem, Red Team, Steel-manning |
+| Resource allocation | Constraint models | Theory of Constraints, Opportunity Cost |
+| Innovation/exploration | Generative models | First Principles, TRIZ, Effectuation |
+| Domain classification | Meta models | Cynefin, Circle of Competence |
+```
+
+### Step 3: Select Specific Model
+
+```markdown
+## Model Selection
+
+Category: [From Step 2]
+
+Candidate models:
+| Model | Fit Score | Strengths for This Problem | Weaknesses |
+|-------|-----------|---------------------------|------------|
+| [Model 1] | [1-5] | [Why it fits] | [Limitations] |
+| [Model 2] | [1-5] | [Why it fits] | [Limitations] |
+| [Model 3] | [1-5] | [Why it fits] | [Limitations] |
+
+Selected model: [Choice]
+Rationale: [Why this model for this problem]
+```
+
+## Model Selection Matrix
+
+### By Problem Type
+
+```
+DIAGNOSTIC PROBLEMS (What's causing this?)
+├── Known categories exist → Kepner-Tregoe (systematic analysis)
+├── Need pam root cause → 5 Whys Plus (iterative drilling)
+├── Hypothesis-driven → Scientific Method (test and falsify)
+└── System-wide issue → Feedback Loops (find reinforcing patterns)
+
+DECISION PROBLEMS (What should we do?)
+├── High stakes, irreversible → Regret Minimization, Pre-mortem
+├── Under uncertainty → Bayesian, Probabilistic Thinking
+├── Resource constrained → Opportunity Cost, Theory of Constraints
+├── Multiple options → Kepner-Tregoe (decision analysis)
+└── Type 1 vs Type 2 → Reversibility Framework
+
+UNDERSTANDING PROBLEMS (How does this work?)
+├── Complex system → Systems Thinking, Feedback Loops
+├── Human behavior → Jobs to Be Done, Incentive Analysis
+├── Organizational → Archetypes, Leverage Points
+└── Competitive → Red Team, Game Theory
+
+CREATIVE PROBLEMS (How might we...?)
+├── Break assumptions → First Principles, TRIZ
+├── Limited resources → Effectuation, Via Negativa
+├── Technical contradiction → TRIZ
+└── Unknown territory → Thought Experiments, Cynefin (probe)
+
+EVALUATION PROBLEMS (Is this good?)
+├── Arguments/proposals → Steel-manning, Red Team
+├── Predictions → Probabilistic, Calibration
+├── Longevity → Lindy Effect
+├── Safety → Margin of Safety, Pre-mortem
+└── Expertise fit → Circle of Competence
+```
+
+### By Domain
+
+```markdown
+## Domain-Model Mapping
+
+| Domain | Primary Models | Why |
+|--------|---------------|-----|
+| Debugging | Scientific Method, 5 Whys | Hypothesis-differential localization, root cause |
+| Architecture | Systems Thinking, Leverage Points | Interconnections, intervention |
+| Product | Jobs to Be Done, Cynefin | User needs, complexity |
+| Strategy | Red Team, Pre-mortem | Adversarial, risk |
+| Performance | Theory of Constraints, Fermi | Bottlenecks, estimation |
+| Decisions | Reversibility, Regret Minimization | Stakes assessment |
+| Innovation | First Principles, TRIZ | Breakthrough thinking |
+| Risk | Margin of Safety, Probabilistic | Uncertainty handling |
+```
+
+## Model Failure Modes
+
+### Using the Wrong Model
+
+```markdown
+## Model Mismatch Indicators
+
+Signs you're using the wrong model:
+- Analysis feels forced or awkward
+- Key aspects don't fit the framework
+- You're ignoring important factors
+- Results don't match intuition consistently
+- Stakeholders don't recognize the framing
+
+Common mismatches:
+| Situation | Wrong Model | Right Model |
+|-----------|-------------|-------------|
+| Complex adaptive system | Root cause analysis | Systems thinking |
+| Simple process problem | Systems thinking | Checklist/SOP |
+| Uncertain future | Detailed planning | Effectuation |
+| Known domain | First principles | Best practices |
+| Political problem | Technical analysis | Stakeholder mapping |
+```
+
+### Model Overuse
+
+```markdown
+## Model Overuse Patterns
+
+"When you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail"
+
+Signs of overuse:
+- You use the same model for every problem
+- You haven't learned new models recently
+- Problems that don't fit are "forced" into the model
+- You dismiss problems that don't fit your model
+
+Fix: Deliberately practice with unfamiliar models
+     Ask: "What model would someone else use?"
+     Rotate models intentionally
+```
+
+## Model Selection Process
+
+### Quick Selection (< 2 minutes)
+
+```markdown
+## Quick Model Selection
+
+1. What type of problem? [Diagnostic/Decision/Understanding/Creative/Evaluation]
+2. What's the constraint? [Time/Information/Stakes/Complexity]
+3. What's the default model for this type?
+4. Any reason NOT to use the default?
+5. Proceed or reconsider
+
+Default models by type:
+- Diagnostic → 5 Whys Plus
+- Decision → Reversibility check first
+- Understanding → Systems Thinking
+- Creative → First Principles
+- Evaluation → Steel-manning
+```
+
+### Deliberate Selection (> 5 minutes)
+
+```markdown
+## Deliberate Model Selection
+
+1. Characterize the problem fully
+2. Identify 3-5 candidate models
+3. Score each on fit
+4. Consider combining models
+5. Select and document rationale
+6. Plan to reassess if model doesn't illuminate
+
+Selection criteria:
+| Criterion | Weight | Model A | Model B | Model C |
+|-----------|--------|---------|---------|---------|
+| Problem fit | 30% | | | |
+| Available info | 20% | | | |
+| Time to apply | 15% | | | |
+| Stakeholder acceptance | 15% | | | |
+| My competence with model | 20% | | | |
+```
+
+## Model Selection Template
+
+```markdown
+# Model Selection: [Problem]
+
+## Problem Characterization
+Type: [Diagnostic/Decision/Understanding/Creative/Evaluation]
+Complexity: [Simple/Complicated/Complex/Chaotic]
+Stakes: [Low/Medium/High]
+Reversibility: [High/Medium/Low]
+Information: [Complete/Partial/Minimal]
+
+## Candidate Models
+| Model | Fit | Strengths | Weaknesses |
+|-------|-----|-----------|------------|
+| | | | |
+
+## Selected Model
+Model: [Choice]
+Rationale: [Why this model]
+
+## Fallback
+If selected model doesn't work: [Alternative]
+Signs to switch: [Indicators]
+
+## Application Plan
+How I'll use this model:
+1. [Step]
+2. [Step]
+```
+
+## Meta-Model Guidelines
+
+### When to Use Multiple Models
+
+```markdown
+## Model Combination Triggers
+
+Use multiple models when:
+- Problem spans multiple types
+- Single model leaves blind spots
+- Stakes are very high
+- Time allows deeper analysis
+
+Combination patterns:
+- Sequential: Use A to narrow, then B to decide
+- Parallel: Use A and B independently, compare results
+- Nested: Use A at macro level, B at micro level
+```
+
+### When to Abandon a Model
+
+```markdown
+## Model Exit Criteria
+
+Stop using a model when:
+- 15+ minutes with no insight
+- Key facts don't fit the framework
+- You're forcing the analysis
+- Someone suggests a better fit
+
+Don't stop just because:
+- The answer is uncomfortable
+- It requires more work
+- Results disagree with intuition (investigate why)
+```
+
+## Verification Checklist
+
+- [ ] Classified the problem type
+- [ ] Considered multiple candidate models
+- [ ] Checked for model-problem fit
+- [ ] Avoided using model out of habit
+- [ ] Have a fallback if model doesn't work
+- [ ] Can articulate why this model fits
+
+## Key Questions
+
+- "What type of problem is this really?"
+- "What model would an expert in this domain use?"
+- "Am I using this model because it fits, or because I know it?"
+- "What aspects of the problem does this model ignore?"
+- "What model would give a different answer?"
+- "When should I switch to a different model?"
+
+## Munger's Wisdom
+
+"You've got to have models in your head. And you've got to array your experience—both vicarious and direct—on this latticework of models in your head."
+
+"You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines, and use them routinely—all of them, not just a few."
+
+The power isn't in any single model—it's in having many models and knowing when each applies. A tool is only useful when matched to the task. The meta-skill of model selection multiplies the value of every model you know.