@nahisaho/katashiro-analyzer 0.2.2 → 0.2.4

package/dist/trend/ForecastEngine.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+/**
+ * ForecastEngine - 予測エンジン
+ *
+ * @requirement REQ-ANALYZE-004
+ * @design DES-ANALYZE-004
+ * @task TASK-004
+ */
+import type { TimeSeriesData, ForecastData, ForecastConfig } from './types.js';
+/**
+ * 時系列データから将来の値を予測するクラス
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const forecaster = new ForecastEngine();
+ *
+ * const forecast = forecaster.forecast(timeSeriesData, {
+ *   periods: 7,
+ *   method: 'linear',
+ *   confidenceLevel: 0.95,
+ * });
+ * ```
+ */
+export declare class ForecastEngine {
+    /**
+     * 時系列データから将来の値を予測
+     */
+    forecast(data: TimeSeriesData[], config?: Partial<ForecastConfig>): ForecastData;
+    /**
+     * 線形回帰による予測
+     */
+    private linearForecast;
+    /**
+     * 指数平滑法による予測
+     */
+    private exponentialForecast;
+    /**
+     * 移動平均による予測
+     */
+    private movingAverageForecast;
+    /**
+     * 線形回帰パラメータを計算
+     */
+    private calculateLinearParams;
+    /**
+     * モデルの精度を計算
+     */
+    private calculateModelAccuracy;
+    /**
+     * 信頼水準からZスコアを取得
+     */
+    private getZScore;
+    /**
+     * 平均値を計算
+     */
+    private average;
+    /**
+     * 二乗和を計算
+     */
+    private sumOfSquares;
+    /**
+     * 空の予測を作成
+     */
+    private createEmptyForecast;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=ForecastEngine.d.ts.map

package/dist/trend/ForecastEngine.d.ts.map

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package/dist/trend/ForecastEngine.js

@@ -0,0 +1,260 @@
+/**
+ * ForecastEngine - 予測エンジン
+ *
+ * @requirement REQ-ANALYZE-004
+ * @design DES-ANALYZE-004
+ * @task TASK-004
+ */
+/**
+ * 時系列データから将来の値を予測するクラス
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const forecaster = new ForecastEngine();
+ *
+ * const forecast = forecaster.forecast(timeSeriesData, {
+ *   periods: 7,
+ *   method: 'linear',
+ *   confidenceLevel: 0.95,
+ * });
+ * ```
+ */
+export class ForecastEngine {
+    /**
+     * 時系列データから将来の値を予測
+     */
+    forecast(data, config) {
+        const periods = config?.periods ?? 7;
+        const method = config?.method ?? 'linear';
+        const confidenceLevel = config?.confidenceLevel ?? 0.95;
+        if (data.length < 2) {
+            return this.createEmptyForecast(periods);
+        }
+        const volumes = data.map((d) => d.volume);
+        switch (method) {
+            case 'linear':
+                return this.linearForecast(data, volumes, periods, confidenceLevel);
+            case 'exponential':
+                return this.exponentialForecast(data, volumes, periods, confidenceLevel);
+            case 'movingAverage':
+                return this.movingAverageForecast(data, volumes, periods, confidenceLevel);
+            default:
+                return this.linearForecast(data, volumes, periods, confidenceLevel);
+        }
+    }
+    /**
+     * 線形回帰による予測
+     */
+    linearForecast(data, volumes, periods, confidenceLevel) {
+        const n = volumes.length;
+        // 線形回帰パラメータを計算
+        const { slope, intercept, stdError } = this.calculateLinearParams(volumes);
+        // 時間間隔を推定（最後の2点から）
+        const lastItem = data[data.length - 1];
+        const prevItem = data.length > 1 ? data[data.length - 2] : lastItem;
+        const lastDate = lastItem?.timestamp ?? new Date();
+        const prevDate = prevItem?.timestamp ?? lastDate;
+        const intervalMs = lastDate.getTime() - prevDate.getTime();
+        // 予測値を計算
+        const predictions = [];
+        const upperBound = [];
+        const lowerBound = [];
+        const zScore = this.getZScore(confidenceLevel);
+        for (let i = 1; i <= periods; i++) {
+            const x = n + i - 1;
+            const predictedValue = slope * x + intercept;
+            const marginOfError = zScore * stdError * Math.sqrt(1 + 1 / n + Math.pow(x - (n - 1) / 2, 2) / this.sumOfSquares(n));
+            predictions.push({
+                date: new Date(lastDate.getTime() + intervalMs * i),
+                value: Math.max(0, predictedValue),
+            });
+            upperBound.push(Math.max(0, predictedValue + marginOfError));
+            lowerBound.push(Math.max(0, predictedValue - marginOfError));
+        }
+        return {
+            method: 'linear',
+            predictions,
+            upperBound,
+            lowerBound,
+            confidenceLevel,
+            accuracy: this.calculateModelAccuracy(volumes, slope, intercept),
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * 指数平滑法による予測
+     */
+    exponentialForecast(data, volumes, periods, confidenceLevel) {
+        const alpha = 0.3; // 平滑化係数
+        const n = volumes.length;
+        // 指数平滑化された値を計算
+        let smoothed = volumes[0] ?? 0;
+        for (let i = 1; i < n; i++) {
+            const vol = volumes[i] ?? 0;
+            smoothed = alpha * vol + (1 - alpha) * smoothed;
+        }
+        // 標準誤差を計算
+        let sse = 0;
+        let prevSmoothed = volumes[0] ?? 0;
+        for (let i = 1; i < n; i++) {
+            const vol = volumes[i] ?? 0;
+            const error = vol - prevSmoothed;
+            sse += error * error;
+            prevSmoothed = alpha * vol + (1 - alpha) * prevSmoothed;
+        }
+        const stdError = Math.sqrt(sse / (n - 1));
+        // 時間間隔を推定
+        const lastItem = data[data.length - 1];
+        const prevItem = data.length > 1 ? data[data.length - 2] : lastItem;
+        const lastDate = lastItem?.timestamp ?? new Date();
+        const prevDate = prevItem?.timestamp ?? lastDate;
+        const intervalMs = lastDate.getTime() - prevDate.getTime();
+        // 予測値を計算（指数平滑法では全期間同じ値）
+        const predictions = [];
+        const upperBound = [];
+        const lowerBound = [];
+        const zScore = this.getZScore(confidenceLevel);
+        for (let i = 1; i <= periods; i++) {
+            const marginOfError = zScore * stdError * Math.sqrt(i);
+            predictions.push({
+                date: new Date(lastDate.getTime() + intervalMs * i),
+                value: Math.max(0, smoothed),
+            });
+            upperBound.push(Math.max(0, smoothed + marginOfError));
+            lowerBound.push(Math.max(0, smoothed - marginOfError));
+        }
+        return {
+            method: 'exponential',
+            predictions,
+            upperBound,
+            lowerBound,
+            confidenceLevel,
+            accuracy: 1 - stdError / (this.average(volumes) || 1),
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * 移動平均による予測
+     */
+    movingAverageForecast(data, volumes, periods, confidenceLevel) {
+        const windowSize = Math.min(5, Math.floor(volumes.length / 2));
+        // 移動平均を計算
+        const recentValues = volumes.slice(-windowSize);
+        const movingAvg = this.average(recentValues);
+        // 標準偏差を計算
+        const stdDev = Math.sqrt(recentValues.reduce((sum, v) => sum + Math.pow(v - movingAvg, 2), 0) / windowSize);
+        // 時間間隔を推定
+        const lastItem = data[data.length - 1];
+        const prevItem = data.length > 1 ? data[data.length - 2] : lastItem;
+        const lastDate = lastItem?.timestamp ?? new Date();
+        const prevDate = prevItem?.timestamp ?? lastDate;
+        const intervalMs = lastDate.getTime() - prevDate.getTime();
+        // 予測値を計算
+        const predictions = [];
+        const upperBound = [];
+        const lowerBound = [];
+        const zScore = this.getZScore(confidenceLevel);
+        for (let i = 1; i <= periods; i++) {
+            const marginOfError = zScore * stdDev;
+            predictions.push({
+                date: new Date(lastDate.getTime() + intervalMs * i),
+                value: Math.max(0, movingAvg),
+            });
+            upperBound.push(Math.max(0, movingAvg + marginOfError));
+            lowerBound.push(Math.max(0, movingAvg - marginOfError));
+        }
+        return {
+            method: 'movingAverage',
+            predictions,
+            upperBound,
+            lowerBound,
+            confidenceLevel,
+            accuracy: 1 - stdDev / (movingAvg || 1),
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * 線形回帰パラメータを計算
+     */
+    calculateLinearParams(values) {
+        const n = values.length;
+        if (n === 0)
+            return { slope: 0, intercept: 0, stdError: 0 };
+        const xSum = (n * (n - 1)) / 2;
+        const ySum = values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
+        const xySum = values.reduce((sum, y, x) => sum + x * y, 0);
+        const x2Sum = (n * (n - 1) * (2 * n - 1)) / 6;
+        const slope = (n * xySum - xSum * ySum) / (n * x2Sum - xSum * xSum || 1);
+        const intercept = (ySum - slope * xSum) / n;
+        // 残差の標準誤差を計算
+        let sse = 0;
+        for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+            const predicted = slope * i + intercept;
+            const val = values[i] ?? 0;
+            sse += Math.pow(val - predicted, 2);
+        }
+        const stdError = Math.sqrt(sse / (n - 2 || 1));
+        return { slope, intercept, stdError };
+    }
+    /**
+     * モデルの精度を計算
+     */
+    calculateModelAccuracy(values, slope, intercept) {
+        const n = values.length;
+        if (n === 0)
+            return 0;
+        const yMean = this.average(values);
+        let ssTotal = 0;
+        let ssRes = 0;
+        for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+            const predicted = slope * i + intercept;
+            const val = values[i] ?? 0;
+            ssTotal += Math.pow(val - yMean, 2);
+            ssRes += Math.pow(val - predicted, 2);
+        }
+        return ssTotal === 0 ? 0 : Math.max(0, 1 - ssRes / ssTotal);
+    }
+    /**
+     * 信頼水準からZスコアを取得
+     */
+    getZScore(confidenceLevel) {
+        const zScores = {
+            0.9: 1.645,
+            0.95: 1.96,
+            0.99: 2.576,
+        };
+        return zScores[confidenceLevel] ?? 1.96;
+    }
+    /**
+     * 平均値を計算
+     */
+    average(values) {
+        return values.length === 0 ? 0 : values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length;
+    }
+    /**
+     * 二乗和を計算
+     */
+    sumOfSquares(n) {
+        let sum = 0;
+        const mean = (n - 1) / 2;
+        for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+            sum += Math.pow(i - mean, 2);
+        }
+        return sum || 1;
+    }
+    /**
+     * 空の予測を作成
+     */
+    createEmptyForecast(periods) {
+        const now = new Date();
+        return {
+            method: 'linear',
+            predictions: Array.from({ length: periods }, (_, i) => ({
+                date: new Date(now.getTime() + (i + 1) * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000),
+                value: 0,
+            })),
+            upperBound: Array(periods).fill(0),
+            lowerBound: Array(periods).fill(0),
+            confidenceLevel: 0.95,
+            accuracy: 0,
+        };
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=ForecastEngine.js.map

package/dist/trend/ForecastEngine.js.map

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package/dist/trend/TimeSeriesCollector.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+/**
+ * TimeSeriesCollector - 時系列データの収集
+ *
+ * @requirement REQ-ANALYZE-004
+ * @design DES-ANALYZE-004
+ * @task TASK-004
+ */
+import { type Result } from '@nahisaho/katashiro-core';
+import type { CollectionQuery, TimeSeriesData, TrendAnalysisError } from './types.js';
+/**
+ * 時系列データを収集するクラス
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const collector = new TimeSeriesCollector();
+ *
+ * const result = await collector.collect({
+ *   topic: 'AI',
+ *   startDate: new Date('2025-01-01'),
+ *   endDate: new Date('2025-12-31'),
+ *   granularity: 'weekly',
+ *   sources: ['news', 'web'],
+ * });
+ * ```
+ */
+export declare class TimeSeriesCollector {
+    private searchClient;
+    constructor();
+    /**
+     * 時系列データを収集
+     */
+    collect(query: CollectionQuery): Promise<Result<TimeSeriesData[], TrendAnalysisError>>;
+    /**
+     * 単一ソースからデータを収集
+     */
+    private collectFromSource;
+    /**
+     * 時間バケットを作成
+     */
+    private createTimeBuckets;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=TimeSeriesCollector.d.ts.map

package/dist/trend/TimeSeriesCollector.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"TimeSeriesCollector.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/trend/TimeSeriesCollector.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;GAMG;AAEH,OAAO,EAAW,KAAK,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,0BAA0B,CAAC;AAEhE,OAAO,KAAK,EACV,eAAe,EACf,cAAc,EAId,kBAAkB,EACnB,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC;AAEpB;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAeG;AACH,qBAAa,mBAAmB;IAC9B,OAAO,CAAC,YAAY,CAAkB;;IAMtC;;OAEG;IACG,OAAO,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,eAAe,GAAG,OAAO,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,cAAc,EAAE,EAAE,kBAAkB,CAAC,CAAC;IAkE5F;;OAEG;YACW,iBAAiB;IAwD/B;;OAEG;IACH,OAAO,CAAC,iBAAiB;CA6C1B"}

package/dist/trend/TimeSeriesCollector.js

@@ -0,0 +1,172 @@
+/**
+ * TimeSeriesCollector - 時系列データの収集
+ *
+ * @requirement REQ-ANALYZE-004
+ * @design DES-ANALYZE-004
+ * @task TASK-004
+ */
+import { ok, err } from '@nahisaho/katashiro-core';
+import { WebSearchClient } from '@nahisaho/katashiro-collector';
+/**
+ * 時系列データを収集するクラス
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const collector = new TimeSeriesCollector();
+ *
+ * const result = await collector.collect({
+ *   topic: 'AI',
+ *   startDate: new Date('2025-01-01'),
+ *   endDate: new Date('2025-12-31'),
+ *   granularity: 'weekly',
+ *   sources: ['news', 'web'],
+ * });
+ * ```
+ */
+export class TimeSeriesCollector {
+    searchClient;
+    constructor() {
+        this.searchClient = new WebSearchClient();
+    }
+    /**
+     * 時系列データを収集
+     */
+    async collect(query) {
+        try {
+            const buckets = this.createTimeBuckets(query.startDate, query.endDate, query.granularity);
+            // 各ソースからデータを収集
+            const sourceResults = await Promise.allSettled(query.sources.map((source) => this.collectFromSource(query.topic, source, query.startDate, query.endDate)));
+            // 結果を時間バケットに振り分け
+            const allDocs = [];
+            for (const result of sourceResults) {
+                if (result.status === 'fulfilled') {
+                    allDocs.push(...result.value);
+                }
+            }
+            if (allDocs.length === 0) {
+                // データがない場合は空のシリーズを返す
+                return ok(buckets.map((bucket) => ({
+                    timestamp: bucket.start,
+                    volume: 0,
+                    normalizedScore: 0,
+                    sourceBreakdown: {},
+                    sampleDocs: [],
+                })));
+            }
+            // バケットごとに集計
+            const timeSeries = buckets.map((bucket) => {
+                const docsInBucket = allDocs.filter((doc) => doc.publishedAt >= bucket.start && doc.publishedAt < bucket.end);
+                const sourceBreakdown = {};
+                for (const doc of docsInBucket) {
+                    sourceBreakdown[doc.source] = (sourceBreakdown[doc.source] || 0) + 1;
+                }
+                return {
+                    timestamp: bucket.start,
+                    volume: docsInBucket.length,
+                    normalizedScore: 0, // 後で正規化
+                    sourceBreakdown,
+                    sampleDocs: docsInBucket.slice(0, 5), // 最大5件のサンプル
+                };
+            });
+            // 正規化
+            const maxVolume = Math.max(...timeSeries.map((ts) => ts.volume), 1);
+            for (const ts of timeSeries) {
+                ts.normalizedScore = (ts.volume / maxVolume) * 100;
+            }
+            return ok(timeSeries);
+        }
+        catch (error) {
+            return err({
+                code: 'COLLECTION_FAILED',
+                message: error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'Unknown error during collection',
+                details: error,
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    /**
+     * 単一ソースからデータを収集
+     */
+    async collectFromSource(topic, source, startDate, endDate) {
+        const docs = [];
+        switch (source) {
+            case 'news':
+            case 'web': {
+                const searchResult = await this.searchClient.search({
+                    query: topic,
+                    maxResults: 50,
+                });
+                if (searchResult && Array.isArray(searchResult)) {
+                    for (const result of searchResult) {
+                        // 日付情報がない場合は現在日付を使用
+                        const publishedAt = new Date();
+                        if (publishedAt >= startDate && publishedAt <= endDate) {
+                            docs.push({
+                                title: result.title,
+                                url: result.url,
+                                publishedAt,
+                                source,
+                                relevanceScore: 0.8,
+                            });
+                        }
+                    }
+                }
+                break;
+            }
+            case 'rss': {
+                // RSSフィードからの収集（フィードURLがある場合）
+                // 基本的にはトピック検索では使用しない
+                break;
+            }
+            case 'academic': {
+                // 学術検索（arXiv等）- WideResearchEngineのAcademicSearchAgentを利用可能
+                // 基本実装では省略
+                break;
+            }
+            case 'social': {
+                // ソーシャルメディア - API制限があるため基本実装では省略
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+        return docs;
+    }
+    /**
+     * 時間バケットを作成
+     */
+    createTimeBuckets(startDate, endDate, granularity) {
+        const buckets = [];
+        let current = new Date(startDate);
+        while (current < endDate) {
+            const bucketStart = new Date(current);
+            let bucketEnd;
+            switch (granularity) {
+                case 'hourly':
+                    bucketEnd = new Date(current);
+                    bucketEnd.setHours(bucketEnd.getHours() + 1);
+                    break;
+                case 'daily':
+                    bucketEnd = new Date(current);
+                    bucketEnd.setDate(bucketEnd.getDate() + 1);
+                    break;
+                case 'weekly':
+                    bucketEnd = new Date(current);
+                    bucketEnd.setDate(bucketEnd.getDate() + 7);
+                    break;
+                case 'monthly':
+                    bucketEnd = new Date(current);
+                    bucketEnd.setMonth(bucketEnd.getMonth() + 1);
+                    break;
+                case 'yearly':
+                    bucketEnd = new Date(current);
+                    bucketEnd.setFullYear(bucketEnd.getFullYear() + 1);
+                    break;
+            }
+            if (bucketEnd > endDate) {
+                bucketEnd = new Date(endDate);
+            }
+            buckets.push({ start: bucketStart, end: bucketEnd });
+            current = bucketEnd;
+        }
+        return buckets;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=TimeSeriesCollector.js.map

package/dist/trend/TimeSeriesCollector.js.map

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package/dist/trend/TrendAnalyzer.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
+/**
+ * TrendAnalyzer - トレンド分析オーケストレータ
+ *
+ * 時系列データの収集、トレンド検出、予測、可視化を統合的に実行する
+ *
+ * @requirement REQ-ANALYZE-004
+ * @design DES-ANALYZE-004
+ * @task TASK-004
+ */
+import { type Result } from '@nahisaho/katashiro-core';
+import type { TrendAnalysisQuery, TrendAnalysisResult, TrendAnalyzerConfig, TrendAnalysisError, TopicComparison } from './types.js';
+/**
+ * トレンド分析を統合的に実行するメインクラス
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const analyzer = new TrendAnalyzer();
+ *
+ * const result = await analyzer.analyze({
+ *   topic: 'AI',
+ *   dateRange: {
+ *     start: new Date('2025-01-01'),
+ *     end: new Date('2025-12-31'),
+ *   },
+ *   options: {
+ *     granularity: 'weekly',
+ *     sources: ['news', 'web'],
+ *     includeForecast: true,
+ *   },
+ * });
+ *
+ * if (isOk(result)) {
+ *   console.log(result.value.summary);
+ * }
+ * ```
+ */
+export declare class TrendAnalyzer {
+    private collector;
+    private detector;
+    private forecaster;
+    private visualizer;
+    private config;
+    constructor(config?: Partial<TrendAnalyzerConfig>);
+    /**
+     * トレンド分析を実行
+     */
+    analyze(query: TrendAnalysisQuery): Promise<Result<TrendAnalysisResult, TrendAnalysisError>>;
+    /**
+     * 複数トピックを比較分析
+     */
+    compare(topics: string[], dateRange: {
+        start: Date;
+        end: Date;
+    }, options?: TrendAnalysisQuery['options']): Promise<Result<TopicComparison, TrendAnalysisError>>;
+    /**
+     * クエリの検証
+     */
+    private validateQuery;
+    /**
+     * トピック間の相関を計算
+     */
+    private calculateTopicCorrelations;
+    /**
+     * 相関係数を計算
+     */
+    private calculateCorrelation;
+    /**
+     * 比較サマリーを生成
+     */
+    private generateComparisonSummary;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=TrendAnalyzer.d.ts.map

package/dist/trend/TrendAnalyzer.d.ts.map

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