@mxf-dev/core 1.0.0

package/src/services/PredictiveAnalyticsService.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2299 @@
+/**
+ * Copyright 2024 Brad Anderson
+ *
+ * Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
+ * you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
+ * You may obtain a copy of the License at
+ *
+ *     http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
+ *
+ * Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
+ * distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
+ * WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
+ * See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
+ * limitations under the License.
+ *
+ * @author Brad Anderson <BradA1878@pm.me>
+ * @repository https://github.com/mxf-dev/mxf
+ * @documentation https://mxf-dev.github.io/mxf/
+ */
+
+/**
+ * PredictiveAnalyticsService - Phase 6 Advanced Analytics
+ * 
+ * ML-based prediction features including:
+ * - Error prediction model
+ * - Anomaly detection
+ * - Proactive suggestions
+ * - Pattern forecasting
+ * - Risk scoring
+ */
+
+import { createBaseEventPayload } from '../schemas/EventPayloadSchema.js';
+import * as os from 'os';
+import { EventEmitter } from 'events';
+import { Logger } from '../utils/Logger.js';
+import { EventBus } from '../events/EventBus.js';
+import { Events } from '../events/EventNames.js';
+import { TensorFlowEvents } from '../events/event-definitions/TensorFlowEvents.js';
+import {
+    SYSTEM_AGENT_ID,
+    SYSTEM_CHANNEL_ID,
+    createTfInferenceFallbackPayload,
+} from '../schemas/EventPayloadSchema.js';
+import { PatternLearningService } from './PatternLearningService.js';
+import { MxfMLService } from './MxfMLService.js';
+import { MxfModelType } from '../types/TensorFlowTypes.js';
+import { isTensorFlowEnabled, getTensorFlowConfig } from '../config/tensorflow.config.js';
+import { AgentId, ChannelId } from '../types/ChannelContext.js';
+import { v4 as uuidv4 } from 'uuid';
+
+/**
+ * Prediction types
+ */
+export enum PredictionType {
+    ERROR_PROBABILITY = 'error_probability',
+    PARAMETER_VALUE = 'parameter_value',
+    EXECUTION_TIME = 'execution_time',
+    SUCCESS_RATE = 'success_rate',
+    ANOMALY_SCORE = 'anomaly_score'
+}
+
+/**
+ * Model types
+ */
+export enum ModelType {
+    RANDOM_FOREST = 'random_forest',
+    GRADIENT_BOOSTING = 'gradient_boosting',
+    NEURAL_NETWORK = 'neural_network',
+    ISOLATION_FOREST = 'isolation_forest',
+    LSTM = 'lstm'
+}
+
+/**
+ * Feature vector for predictions
+ */
+export interface FeatureVector {
+    // Tool features
+    toolName: string;
+    toolCategory: string;
+    toolComplexity: number;
+    
+    // Parameter features
+    parameterCount: number;
+    parameterTypes: string[];
+    parameterPatternMatch: number;
+    
+    // Agent features
+    agentType: string;
+    agentExperience: number; // Number of successful tool calls
+    agentErrorRate: number;
+    
+    // Context features
+    timeOfDay: number; // Hour 0-23
+    dayOfWeek: number; // 0-6
+    systemLoad: number;
+    concurrentRequests: number;
+    
+    // Historical features
+    recentErrors: number; // Last hour
+    recentSuccesses: number;
+    averageLatency: number;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Prediction result
+ */
+export interface PredictionResult {
+    predictionId: string;
+    type: PredictionType;
+    timestamp: number;
+    prediction: {
+        value: number | string | Record<string, any>;
+        confidence: number;
+        explanation?: string;
+    };
+    features: Partial<FeatureVector>;
+    model: {
+        type: ModelType;
+        version: string;
+        accuracy: number | null;
+    };
+}
+
+/**
+ * Anomaly detection result
+ */
+export interface AnomalyResult {
+    anomalyId: string;
+    timestamp: number;
+    score: number; // 0-1, higher means more anomalous
+    type: 'parameter' | 'behavior' | 'performance' | 'pattern';
+    description: string;
+    context: Record<string, any>;
+    severity: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high' | 'critical';
+    suggestedAction?: string;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Proactive suggestion
+ */
+export interface ProactiveSuggestion {
+    suggestionId: string;
+    timestamp: number;
+    type: 'parameter' | 'tool' | 'timing' | 'strategy';
+    title: string;
+    description: string;
+    confidence: number;
+    expectedBenefit: string;
+    implementation?: string;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Pattern forecast
+ */
+export interface PatternForecast {
+    forecastId: string;
+    pattern: string;
+    timeframe: 'hour' | 'day' | 'week';
+    predictions: Array<{
+        timestamp: number;
+        value: number;
+        confidence: number;
+        upperBound: number;
+        lowerBound: number;
+    }>;
+    accuracy: number | null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Risk score result
+ */
+export interface RiskScore {
+    scoreId: string;
+    timestamp: number;
+    overallRisk: number; // 0-100
+    riskFactors: Array<{
+        factor: string;
+        weight: number;
+        score: number;
+        description: string;
+    }>;
+    mitigation: string[];
+    trend: 'increasing' | 'stable' | 'decreasing';
+}
+
+/**
+ * Model metadata
+ */
+export interface ModelMetadata {
+    modelId: string;
+    type: ModelType;
+    version: string;
+    trainedAt: number;
+    accuracy: number | null;
+    features: string[];
+    hyperparameters: Record<string, any>;
+    trainingDataSize: number;
+    validationMetrics: Record<string, number>;
+}
+
+/** TF.js model ID for the error prediction Dense classifier */
+const TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID = 'error_prediction';
+
+/** TF.js model ID for the anomaly detection autoencoder */
+const TF_ANOMALY_AUTOENCODER_MODEL_ID = 'anomaly_autoencoder';
+
+/** Number of features in the vectorized feature vector */
+const ERROR_PREDICTION_FEATURE_COUNT = 12;
+
+/**
+ * Scale factor for normalizing autoencoder reconstruction error to 0-1 range.
+ * Raw MSE is multiplied by this value and clamped to [0, 1].
+ * Calibrated so that MSE ≈ 0.08 maps to the existing anomaly threshold of 0.8.
+ */
+const AUTOENCODER_ANOMALY_SCALE_FACTOR = 10;
+
+/**
+ * Predictive Analytics Service
+ */
+export class PredictiveAnalyticsService extends EventEmitter {
+    private readonly logger: Logger;
+
+    // Service dependencies
+    private readonly patternLearningService: PatternLearningService;
+
+    // TF.js error prediction model state
+    // When TF.js is enabled and the model is trained, predict() uses MxfMLService.
+    // Otherwise falls back to the heuristic runModel().
+    private tfErrorPredictionReady: boolean = false;
+
+    // TF.js anomaly detection autoencoder state
+    // When TF.js is enabled and the autoencoder is trained, anomaly detection
+    // uses reconstruction error from MxfMLService.predictWithReconstruction().
+    // Otherwise falls back to the heuristic distance-based isolation score.
+    private tfAnomalyAutoencoderReady: boolean = false;
+
+    // Models (simplified in-memory implementation)
+    private readonly models = new Map<string, any>();
+    private readonly modelMetadata = new Map<string, ModelMetadata>();
+    
+    // Training data
+    private readonly trainingData: Array<{
+        features: FeatureVector;
+        label: any;
+        timestamp: number;
+    }> = [];
+    
+    // Prediction cache
+    private readonly predictionCache = new Map<string, PredictionResult>();
+    
+    // Anomaly detection
+    private readonly anomalyThresholds = {
+        parameter: 0.8,
+        behavior: 0.85,
+        performance: 0.9,
+        pattern: 0.75
+    };
+    
+    // Configuration
+    private config = {
+        enableRealTimePrediction: true,
+        enableAnomalyDetection: true,
+        enableProactiveSuggestions: true,
+        minTrainingDataSize: 100,
+        retrainInterval: 3600000, // 1 hour
+        predictionCacheTTL: 300000, // 5 minutes
+        maxTrainingDataSize: 10000
+    };
+    
+    // Metrics
+    private metrics = {
+        predictionsMade: 0,
+        anomaliesDetected: 0,
+        suggestionsGenerated: 0,
+        modelRetrains: 0,
+        averagePredictionTime: 0,
+        predictionAccuracy: 0
+    };
+    
+    private retrainInterval?: NodeJS.Timeout;
+    
+    private static instance: PredictiveAnalyticsService;
+    
+    private constructor() {
+        super();
+        this.logger = new Logger('info', 'PredictiveAnalyticsService', 'server');
+
+        // Initialize service dependencies
+        this.patternLearningService = PatternLearningService.getInstance();
+
+        this.initializeModels();
+        this.setupEventListeners();
+        this.startRetrainSchedule();
+
+        // TF.js model initialization is deferred to initializeTensorFlowModels().
+        // This service is instantiated at module load time (via validationAnalyticsController),
+        // which runs BEFORE MxfMLService.initialize() in server Step 2.8.
+        // The server calls initializeTensorFlowModels() after MxfMLService is ready.
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Get singleton instance
+     */
+    public static getInstance(): PredictiveAnalyticsService {
+        if (!PredictiveAnalyticsService.instance) {
+            PredictiveAnalyticsService.instance = new PredictiveAnalyticsService();
+        }
+        return PredictiveAnalyticsService.instance;
+    }
+    
+    // =============================================================================
+    // TF.JS DEFERRED INITIALIZATION
+    // =============================================================================
+
+    /**
+     * Initialize TF.js models after MxfMLService is ready.
+     *
+     * Called from server/index.ts after Step 2.8 (MxfMLService.initialize()).
+     * This service is instantiated at module load time (before Step 2.8),
+     * so TF model registration must be deferred to this explicit call.
+     *
+     * Registers and builds both the error prediction Dense classifier and the
+     * anomaly detection autoencoder. If either fails, the heuristic fallbacks
+     * continue to serve predictions.
+     */
+    public async initializeTensorFlowModels(): Promise<void> {
+        if (!isTensorFlowEnabled()) {
+            this.logger.debug(
+                '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TensorFlow.js disabled, skipping TF model initialization'
+            );
+            return;
+        }
+
+        const mlService = MxfMLService.getInstance();
+        if (!mlService.isEnabled()) {
+            this.logger.warn(
+                '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] MxfMLService not enabled after Step 2.8, ' +
+                'TF models will not be registered'
+            );
+            return;
+        }
+
+        // Initialize error prediction Dense classifier
+        try {
+            await this.initializeTfErrorPrediction();
+        } catch (error) {
+            this.logger.warn(
+                `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js error prediction init failed, ` +
+                `using heuristic fallback: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`
+            );
+        }
+
+        // Initialize anomaly detection autoencoder
+        try {
+            await this.initializeTfAnomalyAutoencoder();
+        } catch (error) {
+            this.logger.warn(
+                `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js anomaly autoencoder init failed, ` +
+                `using heuristic fallback: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`
+            );
+        }
+    }
+
+    // =============================================================================
+    // TF.JS ERROR PREDICTION MODEL SETUP
+    // =============================================================================
+
+    /**
+     * Initialize TF.js error prediction model.
+     *
+     * Registers, builds, and optionally loads a Dense(12→32→16→1) binary
+     * classifier with MxfMLService. The model uses binary cross-entropy loss
+     * and sigmoid output for error probability prediction.
+     *
+     * Architecture: input(12) → Dense(32, relu) → Dense(16, relu) → Dense(1, sigmoid)
+     *
+     * If a previously trained model exists in storage (GridFS), it is loaded
+     * automatically. Otherwise the model starts untrained and waits for enough
+     * training data (100 samples) before the first training run.
+     */
+    private async initializeTfErrorPrediction(): Promise<void> {
+        const mlService = MxfMLService.getInstance();
+
+        if (!mlService.isEnabled()) {
+            this.logger.debug(
+                '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] MxfMLService not enabled, skipping TF.js model setup'
+            );
+            return;
+        }
+
+        // Register the error prediction model configuration
+        mlService.registerModel({
+            modelId: TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID,
+            type: MxfModelType.DENSE_CLASSIFIER,
+            inputShape: [ERROR_PREDICTION_FEATURE_COUNT],
+            outputShape: [1],
+            minTrainingSamples: 100,
+            batchSize: 32,
+            epochs: 10,
+            validationSplit: 0.2,
+            learningRate: 0.001,
+            autoTrain: true,
+            retrainIntervalMs: this.config.retrainInterval,
+            hyperparameters: {
+                architecture: 'dense(12)->dense(32,relu)->dense(16,relu)->dense(1,sigmoid)',
+                loss: 'binaryCrossentropy',
+                optimizer: 'adam',
+            },
+        });
+
+        // Build the Dense(12→32→16→1) model
+        await mlService.buildSequentialModel(TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID, (tf) => {
+            const model = tf.sequential();
+            model.add(tf.layers.dense({
+                units: 32,
+                activation: 'relu',
+                inputShape: [ERROR_PREDICTION_FEATURE_COUNT],
+            }));
+            model.add(tf.layers.dense({
+                units: 16,
+                activation: 'relu',
+            }));
+            model.add(tf.layers.dense({
+                units: 1,
+                activation: 'sigmoid',
+            }));
+            model.compile({
+                optimizer: tf.train.adam(0.001),
+                loss: 'binaryCrossentropy',
+                metrics: ['accuracy'],
+            });
+            return model;
+        });
+
+        // Try to load a previously saved model from storage
+        const loaded = await mlService.loadModel(TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID);
+        if (loaded) {
+            this.tfErrorPredictionReady = true;
+            this.logger.info(
+                '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] Loaded pre-trained TF.js error prediction model'
+            );
+        } else {
+            this.logger.info(
+                '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js error prediction model built (untrained, ' +
+                'will train when 100+ samples collected)'
+            );
+        }
+
+        // Schedule automatic retraining with MxfMLService
+        const config = getTensorFlowConfig();
+        if (config.autoTrainEnabled) {
+            mlService.scheduleRetrain(TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID, async () => {
+                await this.trainErrorPredictionModel();
+            });
+        }
+    }
+
+    // =============================================================================
+    // TF.JS ANOMALY DETECTION AUTOENCODER SETUP
+    // =============================================================================
+
+    /**
+     * Initialize TF.js anomaly detection autoencoder.
+     *
+     * Registers, builds, and optionally loads an autoencoder with MxfMLService.
+     * The autoencoder learns to reconstruct the 12-element feature vector;
+     * anomalies are inputs that reconstruct poorly (high MSE).
+     *
+     * Architecture: input(12) → Dense(8, relu) → Dense(4, relu) → Dense(8, relu) → Dense(12, linear)
+     * - Encoder: 12 → 8 → 4 (bottleneck)
+     * - Decoder: 4 → 8 → 12 (reconstruction)
+     * - Loss: MSE (mean squared error)
+     * - Optimizer: Adam(lr=0.001)
+     *
+     * Unsupervised training: trains on ALL feature vectors (input = output).
+     * Normal patterns are learned; anomalies produce high reconstruction error.
+     */
+    private async initializeTfAnomalyAutoencoder(): Promise<void> {
+        const mlService = MxfMLService.getInstance();
+
+        if (!mlService.isEnabled()) {
+            this.logger.debug(
+                '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] MxfMLService not enabled, skipping anomaly autoencoder setup'
+            );
+            return;
+        }
+
+        // Register the anomaly autoencoder model configuration
+        mlService.registerModel({
+            modelId: TF_ANOMALY_AUTOENCODER_MODEL_ID,
+            type: MxfModelType.AUTOENCODER,
+            inputShape: [ERROR_PREDICTION_FEATURE_COUNT],
+            outputShape: [ERROR_PREDICTION_FEATURE_COUNT],
+            minTrainingSamples: 100,
+            batchSize: 32,
+            epochs: 20,
+            validationSplit: 0.1,
+            learningRate: 0.001,
+            autoTrain: true,
+            retrainIntervalMs: this.config.retrainInterval,
+            hyperparameters: {
+                architecture: 'dense(12)->dense(8,relu)->dense(4,relu)->dense(8,relu)->dense(12,linear)',
+                loss: 'meanSquaredError',
+                optimizer: 'adam',
+                bottleneckSize: 4,
+            },
+        });
+
+        // Build the autoencoder: encoder(12→8→4) + decoder(4→8→12)
+        await mlService.buildSequentialModel(TF_ANOMALY_AUTOENCODER_MODEL_ID, (tf) => {
+            const model = tf.sequential();
+            // Encoder
+            model.add(tf.layers.dense({
+                units: 8,
+                activation: 'relu',
+                inputShape: [ERROR_PREDICTION_FEATURE_COUNT],
+            }));
+            model.add(tf.layers.dense({
+                units: 4,
+                activation: 'relu',
+            }));
+            // Decoder
+            model.add(tf.layers.dense({
+                units: 8,
+                activation: 'relu',
+            }));
+            model.add(tf.layers.dense({
+                units: ERROR_PREDICTION_FEATURE_COUNT,
+                activation: 'linear',
+            }));
+            model.compile({
+                optimizer: tf.train.adam(0.001),
+                loss: 'meanSquaredError',
+            });
+            return model;
+        });
+
+        // Try to load a previously saved model from storage
+        const loaded = await mlService.loadModel(TF_ANOMALY_AUTOENCODER_MODEL_ID);
+        if (loaded) {
+            this.tfAnomalyAutoencoderReady = true;
+            this.logger.info(
+                '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] Loaded pre-trained TF.js anomaly autoencoder model'
+            );
+        } else {
+            this.logger.info(
+                '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js anomaly autoencoder model built (untrained, ' +
+                'will train when 100+ samples collected)'
+            );
+        }
+
+        // Schedule automatic retraining with MxfMLService
+        const config = getTensorFlowConfig();
+        if (config.autoTrainEnabled) {
+            mlService.scheduleRetrain(TF_ANOMALY_AUTOENCODER_MODEL_ID, async () => {
+                await this.trainAnomalyDetectionModel();
+            });
+        }
+    }
+
+    // =============================================================================
+    // ERROR PREDICTION
+    // =============================================================================
+    
+    /**
+     * Predict error probability
+     */
+    public async predictErrors(
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        channelId: ChannelId,
+        toolName: string,
+        parameters: Record<string, any>
+    ): Promise<PredictionResult> {
+        const startTime = Date.now();
+        const cacheKey = this.generateCacheKey('error', agentId, toolName, parameters);
+        
+        // Check cache
+        const cached = this.predictionCache.get(cacheKey);
+        if (cached && Date.now() - cached.timestamp < this.config.predictionCacheTTL) {
+            return cached;
+        }
+        
+        // Extract features
+        const features = await this.extractFeatures(agentId, channelId, toolName, parameters);
+        
+        // Get prediction — use TF.js model if available, otherwise heuristic
+        const prediction = this.runErrorPrediction(agentId, channelId, features);
+
+        // Report model type based on which prediction path was used
+        const usedTfModel = prediction.source === 'model';
+        const modelMeta = this.modelMetadata.get('error_prediction');
+
+        const result: PredictionResult = {
+            predictionId: uuidv4(),
+            type: PredictionType.ERROR_PROBABILITY,
+            timestamp: Date.now(),
+            prediction: {
+                value: prediction.probability,
+                confidence: prediction.confidence,
+                explanation: this.generateExplanation(features)
+            },
+            features,
+            model: {
+                type: usedTfModel ? ModelType.NEURAL_NETWORK : ModelType.GRADIENT_BOOSTING,
+                version: modelMeta?.version || '1.0',
+                accuracy: modelMeta?.accuracy ?? null
+            }
+        };
+        
+        // Cache result
+        this.predictionCache.set(cacheKey, result);
+        
+        // Update metrics
+        this.metrics.predictionsMade++;
+        this.updatePredictionTime(Date.now() - startTime);
+        
+        // Emit prediction event
+        this.emit('prediction_made', result);
+        
+        if (prediction.probability > 0.7) {
+            EventBus.server.emit(Events.Analytics.HIGH_ERROR_RISK_PREDICTED, createBaseEventPayload(
+                Events.Analytics.HIGH_ERROR_RISK_PREDICTED,
+                agentId,
+                channelId,
+                {
+                    predictionId: result.predictionId,
+                    agentId,
+                    channelId,
+                    toolName,
+                    riskScore: prediction.probability,
+                    details: { importantFeatures: prediction.importantFeatures, source: prediction.source },
+                    timestamp: new Date()
+                }
+            ));
+        }
+        
+        return result;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Extract features for prediction
+     */
+    private async extractFeatures(
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        channelId: ChannelId,
+        toolName: string,
+        parameters: Record<string, any>
+    ): Promise<FeatureVector> {
+        // Get agent metrics
+        const agentMetrics = await this.getAgentMetrics(agentId);
+        
+        // Get tool complexity
+        const toolComplexity = this.calculateToolComplexity(toolName);
+        
+        // Get system context
+        const systemContext = this.getSystemContext();
+        
+        // Get pattern match score
+        const patternMatch = await this.calculatePatternMatch(toolName, parameters);
+        
+        const features: FeatureVector = {
+            // Tool features
+            toolName,
+            toolCategory: this.categorizeTool(toolName),
+            toolComplexity,
+            
+            // Parameter features
+            parameterCount: Object.keys(parameters).length,
+            parameterTypes: Object.values(parameters).map(v => typeof v),
+            parameterPatternMatch: patternMatch,
+            
+            // Agent features
+            agentType: agentId.split('-')[0],
+            agentExperience: agentMetrics.successfulCalls,
+            agentErrorRate: agentMetrics.errorRate,
+            
+            // Context features
+            timeOfDay: new Date().getHours(),
+            dayOfWeek: new Date().getDay(),
+            systemLoad: systemContext.load,
+            concurrentRequests: systemContext.concurrentRequests,
+            
+            // Historical features
+            recentErrors: agentMetrics.recentErrors,
+            recentSuccesses: agentMetrics.recentSuccesses,
+            averageLatency: agentMetrics.averageLatency
+        };
+        
+        return features;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Run error prediction, dispatching to TF.js model or heuristic fallback.
+     *
+     * When TF.js is enabled and the model is trained, runs inference via MxfMLService.predict().
+     * The model outputs a single sigmoid value [0, 1] representing error probability.
+     * Confidence is derived from model training metrics (validation accuracy).
+     *
+     * When TF.js is unavailable or the model is untrained, falls back to the
+     * rule-based heuristic that uses feature thresholds.
+     *
+     * @returns Prediction with probability, confidence, source, and important features
+     */
+    private runErrorPrediction(
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        channelId: ChannelId,
+        features: FeatureVector
+    ): {
+        probability: number;
+        confidence: number;
+        source: 'model' | 'heuristic';
+        importantFeatures: string[];
+    } {
+        // Try TF.js model first
+        if (this.tfErrorPredictionReady) {
+            try {
+                const mlService = MxfMLService.getInstance();
+                const featureArray = this.vectorizeFeatures(features);
+                const result = mlService.predict(TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID, featureArray);
+
+                // The model outputs a single sigmoid value (error probability)
+                const probability = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, result.values[0]));
+
+                // Confidence from model training metrics (validation accuracy, or default 0.8)
+                const modelEntry = mlService.getModel(TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID);
+                const confidence = modelEntry?.lastTrainingMetrics?.valAccuracy
+                    ?? modelEntry?.lastTrainingMetrics?.accuracy
+                    ?? 0.8;
+
+                return {
+                    probability,
+                    confidence,
+                    source: 'model',
+                    importantFeatures: ['toolComplexity', 'agentExperience', 'parameterPatternMatch'],
+                };
+            } catch (error) {
+                // TF.js prediction failed — emit fallback event and use heuristic
+                this.logger.warn(
+                    `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js prediction failed, using heuristic: ` +
+                    `${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`
+                );
+                try {
+                    EventBus.server.emit(
+                        TensorFlowEvents.INFERENCE_FALLBACK,
+                        createTfInferenceFallbackPayload(
+                            channelId,
+                            agentId,
+                            TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID,
+                            'error',
+                            error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'prediction_error'
+                        )
+                    );
+                } catch {
+                    // Swallow event emission errors
+                }
+            }
+        }
+
+        // Fall back to heuristic prediction
+        return this.runHeuristicPrediction(agentId, channelId, features);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Heuristic error prediction using rule-based feature thresholds.
+     *
+     * This is the original prediction logic that serves as the graceful
+     * degradation fallback when TF.js is disabled, the model is untrained,
+     * or inference fails. Uses hand-tuned thresholds on the 12-feature vector.
+     */
+    private runHeuristicPrediction(
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        channelId: ChannelId,
+        features: FeatureVector
+    ): {
+        probability: number;
+        confidence: number;
+        source: 'model' | 'heuristic';
+        importantFeatures: string[];
+    } {
+        // Base error rate: 10%
+        let probability = 0.1;
+
+        // High complexity tools have higher error rates
+        if (features.toolComplexity > 0.7) probability += 0.2;
+
+        // New agents have higher error rates
+        if (features.agentExperience < 10) probability += 0.15;
+
+        // High system load increases errors
+        if (features.systemLoad > 0.8) probability += 0.1;
+
+        // Many parameters increase complexity
+        if (features.parameterCount > 5) probability += 0.1;
+
+        // Pattern mismatch increases errors
+        if (features.parameterPatternMatch < 0.5) probability += 0.2;
+
+        // Recent errors indicate ongoing issues
+        if (features.recentErrors > 5) probability += 0.15;
+
+        // Cap probability
+        probability = Math.min(0.95, probability);
+
+        // Calculate confidence based on data availability
+        const confidence = features.agentExperience > 50 ? 0.85 : 0.6;
+
+        // Emit fallback event when TF.js is enabled but model isn't ready
+        if (isTensorFlowEnabled() && !this.tfErrorPredictionReady) {
+            try {
+                EventBus.server.emit(
+                    TensorFlowEvents.INFERENCE_FALLBACK,
+                    createTfInferenceFallbackPayload(
+                        channelId,
+                        agentId,
+                        TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID,
+                        'untrained'
+                    )
+                );
+            } catch {
+                // Swallow event emission errors
+            }
+        }
+
+        return {
+            probability,
+            confidence,
+            source: 'heuristic',
+            importantFeatures: ['toolComplexity', 'agentExperience', 'parameterPatternMatch'],
+        };
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Generate explanation for prediction
+     */
+    private generateExplanation(features: FeatureVector): string {
+        const factors: string[] = [];
+        
+        if (features.toolComplexity > 0.7) {
+            factors.push('high tool complexity');
+        }
+        
+        if (features.agentExperience < 10) {
+            factors.push('limited agent experience');
+        }
+        
+        if (features.parameterPatternMatch < 0.5) {
+            factors.push('unusual parameter pattern');
+        }
+        
+        if (features.recentErrors > 5) {
+            factors.push('recent error history');
+        }
+        
+        if (factors.length === 0) {
+            return 'Low error risk based on normal patterns';
+        }
+        
+        return `Elevated error risk due to: ${factors.join(', ')}`;
+    }
+    
+    // =============================================================================
+    // ANOMALY DETECTION
+    // =============================================================================
+    
+    /**
+     * Detect anomalies
+     */
+    public async detectAnomalies(
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        channelId: ChannelId,
+        toolName: string,
+        parameters: Record<string, any>,
+        executionMetrics?: {
+            latency?: number;
+            memoryUsage?: number;
+            errorType?: string;
+        }
+    ): Promise<AnomalyResult[]> {
+        const anomalies: AnomalyResult[] = [];
+        
+        if (!this.config.enableAnomalyDetection) return anomalies;
+        
+        // Parameter anomalies
+        const parameterAnomaly = await this.detectParameterAnomaly(
+            agentId,
+            channelId,
+            toolName,
+            parameters
+        );
+        if (parameterAnomaly) anomalies.push(parameterAnomaly);
+        
+        // Behavioral anomalies
+        const behaviorAnomaly = await this.detectBehaviorAnomaly(
+            agentId,
+            toolName
+        );
+        if (behaviorAnomaly) anomalies.push(behaviorAnomaly);
+        
+        // Performance anomalies
+        if (executionMetrics?.latency) {
+            const performanceAnomaly = await this.detectPerformanceAnomaly(
+                toolName,
+                executionMetrics.latency
+            );
+            if (performanceAnomaly) anomalies.push(performanceAnomaly);
+        }
+        
+        // Pattern anomalies
+        const patternAnomaly = await this.detectPatternAnomaly(
+            agentId,
+            channelId,
+            toolName,
+            parameters
+        );
+        if (patternAnomaly) anomalies.push(patternAnomaly);
+        
+        // Update metrics
+        this.metrics.anomaliesDetected += anomalies.length;
+        
+        // Emit anomaly events
+        for (const anomaly of anomalies) {
+            this.emit('anomaly_detected', anomaly);
+            
+            if (anomaly.severity === 'critical' || anomaly.severity === 'high') {
+                EventBus.server.emit(Events.Analytics.ANOMALY_DETECTED, createBaseEventPayload(
+                    Events.Analytics.ANOMALY_DETECTED,
+                    agentId,
+                    channelId,
+                    {
+                        anomalyId: anomaly.anomalyId,
+                        type: anomaly.type,
+                        severity: anomaly.severity,
+                        description: anomaly.description,
+                        metrics: { ...anomaly.context, score: anomaly.score, toolName },
+                        timestamp: new Date()
+                    }
+                ));
+            }
+        }
+        
+        return anomalies;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Detect parameter anomalies.
+     *
+     * When TF.js autoencoder is trained, uses reconstruction error as the
+     * anomaly score. Otherwise falls back to heuristic distance-based
+     * isolation scoring against historical parameter patterns.
+     */
+    private async detectParameterAnomaly(
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        channelId: ChannelId,
+        toolName: string,
+        parameters: Record<string, any>
+    ): Promise<AnomalyResult | null> {
+        // Get historical parameter patterns (used by heuristic fallback)
+        const patterns = await this.getParameterPatterns(toolName);
+
+        // Calculate anomaly score — dispatches to TF.js autoencoder or heuristic
+        const score = await this.runParameterAnomalyDetection(
+            agentId, channelId, toolName, parameters, patterns
+        );
+        
+        if (score > this.anomalyThresholds.parameter) {
+            return {
+                anomalyId: uuidv4(),
+                timestamp: Date.now(),
+                score,
+                type: 'parameter',
+                description: `Unusual parameter combination for ${toolName}`,
+                context: { toolName, parameters },
+                severity: score > 0.9 ? 'high' : 'medium',
+                suggestedAction: 'Review parameter values and validate against expected patterns'
+            };
+        }
+        
+        return null;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Detect behavioral anomalies
+     */
+    private async detectBehaviorAnomaly(
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        toolName: string
+    ): Promise<AnomalyResult | null> {
+        // Get agent's typical behavior
+        const typicalBehavior = await this.getAgentBehavior(agentId);
+        
+        // Check for unusual tool usage
+        if (!typicalBehavior.commonTools.includes(toolName)) {
+            const score = 0.85; // Fixed score for new tool usage
+            
+            return {
+                anomalyId: uuidv4(),
+                timestamp: Date.now(),
+                score,
+                type: 'behavior',
+                description: `Agent ${agentId} using unfamiliar tool ${toolName}`,
+                context: { agentId, toolName, typicalTools: typicalBehavior.commonTools },
+                severity: 'low',
+                suggestedAction: 'Monitor for potential errors with unfamiliar tool'
+            };
+        }
+        
+        return null;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Detect performance anomalies
+     */
+    private async detectPerformanceAnomaly(
+        toolName: string,
+        latency: number
+    ): Promise<AnomalyResult | null> {
+        // Get historical performance data
+        const perfData = await this.getPerformanceHistory(toolName);
+        
+        // Calculate z-score
+        const mean = perfData.avgLatency;
+        const stdDev = perfData.stdDevLatency;
+        const zScore = Math.abs((latency - mean) / stdDev);
+        
+        // Convert to anomaly score (0-1)
+        const score = Math.min(1, zScore / 4); // 4 sigma = score of 1
+        
+        if (score > this.anomalyThresholds.performance) {
+            return {
+                anomalyId: uuidv4(),
+                timestamp: Date.now(),
+                score,
+                type: 'performance',
+                description: `Abnormal latency for ${toolName}: ${latency}ms (expected: ${mean.toFixed(0)}ms)`,
+                context: { toolName, latency, expectedLatency: mean, zScore },
+                severity: latency > mean * 3 ? 'high' : 'medium',
+                suggestedAction: 'Investigate performance bottleneck or system resource constraints'
+            };
+        }
+        
+        return null;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Detect pattern anomalies
+     */
+    private async detectPatternAnomaly(
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        channelId: ChannelId,
+        toolName: string,
+        parameters: Record<string, any>
+    ): Promise<AnomalyResult | null> {
+        // Get learned patterns
+        const patterns = await this.patternLearningService.getEnhancedPatterns(
+            channelId,
+            'tool_sequence'
+        );
+        
+        // Check if current usage fits patterns
+        const allPatterns = [...patterns.successful, ...patterns.shared];
+        const patternMatch = this.matchesPatterns(toolName, parameters, allPatterns);
+        const score = 1 - patternMatch; // Invert match to get anomaly score
+        
+        if (score > this.anomalyThresholds.pattern) {
+            return {
+                anomalyId: uuidv4(),
+                timestamp: Date.now(),
+                score,
+                type: 'pattern',
+                description: 'Tool usage deviates from established patterns',
+                context: { agentId, toolName, expectedPatterns: allPatterns.slice(0, 3) },
+                severity: 'medium',
+                suggestedAction: 'Verify if new usage pattern is intentional'
+            };
+        }
+        
+        return null;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Run parameter anomaly detection, dispatching to TF.js autoencoder or heuristic.
+     *
+     * When TF.js autoencoder is trained:
+     * - Extracts the 12-element normalized feature vector
+     * - Runs predictWithReconstruction() to get reconstruction error
+     * - Normalizes error to 0-1 range using AUTOENCODER_ANOMALY_SCALE_FACTOR
+     *
+     * When TF.js is unavailable or untrained:
+     * - Falls back to heuristic distance-based isolation scoring
+     * - Emits INFERENCE_FALLBACK event for observability
+     */
+    private async runParameterAnomalyDetection(
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        channelId: ChannelId,
+        toolName: string,
+        parameters: Record<string, any>,
+        historicalPatterns: any[]
+    ): Promise<number> {
+        // Try TF.js autoencoder first
+        if (this.tfAnomalyAutoencoderReady) {
+            try {
+                const mlService = MxfMLService.getInstance();
+                const features = await this.extractFeatures(agentId, channelId, toolName, parameters);
+                const featureArray = this.vectorizeFeatures(features);
+                const result = mlService.predictWithReconstruction(
+                    TF_ANOMALY_AUTOENCODER_MODEL_ID,
+                    featureArray
+                );
+
+                // Normalize reconstruction error to 0-1 range
+                // Higher reconstruction error = more anomalous
+                return Math.min(1, result.reconstructionError * AUTOENCODER_ANOMALY_SCALE_FACTOR);
+            } catch (error) {
+                // TF.js inference failed — emit fallback event and use heuristic
+                this.logger.warn(
+                    `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js anomaly autoencoder inference failed, ` +
+                    `using heuristic: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`
+                );
+                try {
+                    EventBus.server.emit(
+                        TensorFlowEvents.INFERENCE_FALLBACK,
+                        createTfInferenceFallbackPayload(
+                            channelId,
+                            agentId,
+                            TF_ANOMALY_AUTOENCODER_MODEL_ID,
+                            'error',
+                            error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'prediction_error'
+                        )
+                    );
+                } catch {
+                    // Swallow event emission errors
+                }
+            }
+        }
+
+        // Emit fallback event when TF.js is enabled but autoencoder isn't ready
+        if (isTensorFlowEnabled() && !this.tfAnomalyAutoencoderReady) {
+            try {
+                EventBus.server.emit(
+                    TensorFlowEvents.INFERENCE_FALLBACK,
+                    createTfInferenceFallbackPayload(
+                        channelId,
+                        agentId,
+                        TF_ANOMALY_AUTOENCODER_MODEL_ID,
+                        'untrained'
+                    )
+                );
+            } catch {
+                // Swallow event emission errors
+            }
+        }
+
+        // Fall back to heuristic isolation scoring
+        return this.calculateHeuristicIsolationScore(parameters, historicalPatterns);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Heuristic isolation score using distance-based parameter comparison.
+     *
+     * This is the original isolation forest scoring logic that serves as the
+     * graceful degradation fallback when TF.js is disabled, the autoencoder
+     * is untrained, or inference fails.
+     */
+    private calculateHeuristicIsolationScore(
+        parameters: Record<string, any>,
+        historicalPatterns: any[]
+    ): number {
+        // Simplified isolation forest scoring
+        if (historicalPatterns.length === 0) return 0.5;
+
+        // Calculate distance to nearest patterns
+        let minDistance = Infinity;
+
+        for (const pattern of historicalPatterns) {
+            const distance = this.calculateParameterDistance(parameters, pattern);
+            minDistance = Math.min(minDistance, distance);
+        }
+
+        // Convert distance to anomaly score
+        return Math.min(1, minDistance / 10);
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Calculate parameter distance
+     */
+    private calculateParameterDistance(
+        params1: Record<string, any>,
+        params2: Record<string, any>
+    ): number {
+        let distance = 0;
+        const allKeys = new Set([...Object.keys(params1), ...Object.keys(params2)]);
+        
+        for (const key of allKeys) {
+            if (!(key in params1) || !(key in params2)) {
+                distance += 1;
+            } else if (params1[key] !== params2[key]) {
+                distance += 0.5;
+            }
+        }
+        
+        return distance;
+    }
+    
+    // =============================================================================
+    // PROACTIVE SUGGESTIONS
+    // =============================================================================
+    
+    /**
+     * Generate proactive suggestions
+     */
+    public async generateProactiveSuggestions(
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        channelId: ChannelId,
+        context: {
+            currentTool?: string;
+            recentTools?: string[];
+            currentTask?: string;
+            errorHistory?: any[];
+        }
+    ): Promise<ProactiveSuggestion[]> {
+        const suggestions: ProactiveSuggestion[] = [];
+        
+        if (!this.config.enableProactiveSuggestions) return suggestions;
+        
+        // Parameter suggestions
+        if (context.currentTool) {
+            const paramSuggestions = await this.generateParameterSuggestions(
+                context.currentTool,
+                context.errorHistory
+            );
+            suggestions.push(...paramSuggestions);
+        }
+        
+        // Tool suggestions
+        if (context.currentTask) {
+            const toolSuggestions = await this.generateToolSuggestions(
+                context.currentTask,
+                context.recentTools || []
+            );
+            suggestions.push(...toolSuggestions);
+        }
+        
+        // Timing suggestions
+        const timingSuggestions = await this.generateTimingSuggestions(agentId);
+        suggestions.push(...timingSuggestions);
+        
+        // Strategy suggestions
+        if (context.errorHistory && context.errorHistory.length > 3) {
+            const strategySuggestions = await this.generateStrategySuggestions(
+                context.errorHistory
+            );
+            suggestions.push(...strategySuggestions);
+        }
+        
+        // Sort by confidence
+        suggestions.sort((a, b) => b.confidence - a.confidence);
+        
+        // Update metrics
+        this.metrics.suggestionsGenerated += suggestions.length;
+        
+        return suggestions;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Generate parameter suggestions
+     */
+    private async generateParameterSuggestions(
+        toolName: string,
+        errorHistory?: any[]
+    ): Promise<ProactiveSuggestion[]> {
+        const suggestions: ProactiveSuggestion[] = [];
+        
+        // Analyze error patterns
+        const commonErrors = this.analyzeErrorPatterns(errorHistory || []);
+        
+        if (commonErrors.includes('missing_required_parameter')) {
+            suggestions.push({
+                suggestionId: uuidv4(),
+                timestamp: Date.now(),
+                type: 'parameter',
+                title: 'Include all required parameters',
+                description: `Tool ${toolName} requires specific parameters that are often missing`,
+                confidence: 0.9,
+                expectedBenefit: 'Reduce validation errors by 80%',
+                implementation: 'Use tool_help to see required parameters'
+            });
+        }
+        
+        if (commonErrors.includes('invalid_parameter_type')) {
+            suggestions.push({
+                suggestionId: uuidv4(),
+                timestamp: Date.now(),
+                type: 'parameter',
+                title: 'Check parameter types',
+                description: 'Parameter type mismatches are causing validation failures',
+                confidence: 0.85,
+                expectedBenefit: 'Eliminate type-related errors',
+                implementation: 'Use validation_preview before execution'
+            });
+        }
+        
+        return suggestions;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Generate tool suggestions
+     */
+    private async generateToolSuggestions(
+        task: string,
+        recentTools: string[]
+    ): Promise<ProactiveSuggestion[]> {
+        const suggestions: ProactiveSuggestion[] = [];
+        
+        // Suggest tools based on task patterns
+        if (task.includes('search') && !recentTools.includes('web_search')) {
+            suggestions.push({
+                suggestionId: uuidv4(),
+                timestamp: Date.now(),
+                type: 'tool',
+                title: 'Consider using web_search tool',
+                description: 'The web_search tool might be helpful for this task',
+                confidence: 0.75,
+                expectedBenefit: 'Find relevant information quickly'
+            });
+        }
+        
+        if (task.includes('calculate') && !recentTools.includes('calculator')) {
+            suggestions.push({
+                suggestionId: uuidv4(),
+                timestamp: Date.now(),
+                type: 'tool',
+                title: 'Use calculator for computations',
+                description: 'The calculator tool can handle mathematical operations',
+                confidence: 0.8,
+                expectedBenefit: 'Accurate calculations without errors'
+            });
+        }
+        
+        return suggestions;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Generate timing suggestions
+     */
+    private async generateTimingSuggestions(
+        agentId: AgentId
+    ): Promise<ProactiveSuggestion[]> {
+        const suggestions: ProactiveSuggestion[] = [];
+        const currentHour = new Date().getHours();
+        
+        // Analyze agent's success patterns by time
+        const successByHour = await this.getSuccessRateByHour(agentId);
+        
+        if (successByHour && successByHour[currentHour] < 0.7) {
+            const bestHour = this.findBestHour(successByHour);
+            
+            suggestions.push({
+                suggestionId: uuidv4(),
+                timestamp: Date.now(),
+                type: 'timing',
+                title: 'Consider scheduling complex tasks differently',
+                description: `Your success rate is higher around ${bestHour}:00`,
+                confidence: 0.7,
+                expectedBenefit: `Improve success rate by ${((successByHour[bestHour] - successByHour[currentHour]) * 100).toFixed(0)}%`
+            });
+        }
+        
+        return suggestions;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Generate strategy suggestions
+     */
+    private async generateStrategySuggestions(
+        errorHistory: any[]
+    ): Promise<ProactiveSuggestion[]> {
+        const suggestions: ProactiveSuggestion[] = [];
+        
+        // Detect repeated errors
+        const errorCounts = new Map<string, number>();
+        for (const error of errorHistory) {
+            const key = error.type || error.message;
+            errorCounts.set(key, (errorCounts.get(key) || 0) + 1);
+        }
+        
+        // Find most common error
+        let maxCount = 0;
+        let commonError = '';
+        for (const [error, count] of errorCounts) {
+            if (count > maxCount) {
+                maxCount = count;
+                commonError = error;
+            }
+        }
+        
+        if (maxCount > 3) {
+            suggestions.push({
+                suggestionId: uuidv4(),
+                timestamp: Date.now(),
+                type: 'strategy',
+                title: 'Address recurring error pattern',
+                description: `Error "${commonError}" has occurred ${maxCount} times`,
+                confidence: 0.9,
+                expectedBenefit: 'Eliminate most common error source',
+                implementation: 'Use error_diagnose tool for root cause analysis'
+            });
+        }
+        
+        return suggestions;
+    }
+    
+    // =============================================================================
+    // PATTERN FORECASTING
+    // =============================================================================
+    
+    /**
+     * Forecast patterns
+     */
+    public async forecastPatterns(
+        pattern: string,
+        timeframe: 'hour' | 'day' | 'week'
+    ): Promise<PatternForecast> {
+        // Get historical data
+        const historicalData = await this.getPatternHistory(pattern, timeframe);
+        
+        // Simple time series forecasting
+        const predictions = this.performTimeSeriesForecast(
+            historicalData,
+            timeframe
+        );
+        
+        const forecast: PatternForecast = {
+            forecastId: uuidv4(),
+            pattern,
+            timeframe,
+            predictions,
+            accuracy: this.calculateForecastAccuracy(historicalData)
+        };
+        
+        return forecast;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Perform time series forecasting
+     */
+    private performTimeSeriesForecast(
+        data: number[],
+        timeframe: string
+    ): Array<{
+        timestamp: number;
+        value: number;
+        confidence: number;
+        upperBound: number;
+        lowerBound: number;
+    }> {
+        const predictions = [];
+        const periods = timeframe === 'hour' ? 6 : timeframe === 'day' ? 7 : 4;
+        
+        // Simple moving average forecast
+        const windowSize = Math.min(data.length, 10);
+        const recentData = data.slice(-windowSize);
+        const avg = recentData.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / recentData.length;
+        const stdDev = Math.sqrt(
+            recentData.reduce((sum, val) => sum + Math.pow(val - avg, 2), 0) / recentData.length
+        );
+        
+        const now = Date.now();
+        const interval = timeframe === 'hour' ? 3600000 : timeframe === 'day' ? 86400000 : 604800000;
+        
+        for (let i = 1; i <= periods; i++) {
+            // Add trend component
+            const trend = (data[data.length - 1] - data[0]) / data.length * i;
+            const value = avg + trend;
+            
+            predictions.push({
+                timestamp: now + i * interval,
+                value: Math.max(0, value),
+                confidence: Math.max(0.5, 1 - (i * 0.1)), // Confidence decreases with distance
+                upperBound: value + 2 * stdDev,
+                lowerBound: Math.max(0, value - 2 * stdDev)
+            });
+        }
+        
+        return predictions;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Calculate forecast accuracy
+     */
+    private calculateForecastAccuracy(data: number[]): number {
+        // Use last 20% of data for validation
+        const splitIndex = Math.floor(data.length * 0.8);
+        const training = data.slice(0, splitIndex);
+        const validation = data.slice(splitIndex);
+        
+        if (validation.length === 0) return 0.7; // Default accuracy
+        
+        // Make predictions on training data
+        const predictions = this.performTimeSeriesForecast(training, 'hour');
+        
+        // Calculate MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)
+        let totalError = 0;
+        for (let i = 0; i < Math.min(predictions.length, validation.length); i++) {
+            const actual = validation[i];
+            const predicted = predictions[i].value;
+            if (actual !== 0) {
+                totalError += Math.abs((actual - predicted) / actual);
+            }
+        }
+        
+        const mape = totalError / Math.min(predictions.length, validation.length);
+        return Math.max(0, 1 - mape); // Convert to accuracy
+    }
+    
+    // =============================================================================
+    // RISK SCORING
+    // =============================================================================
+    
+    /**
+     * Calculate risk score
+     */
+    public async calculateRiskScore(
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        channelId: ChannelId,
+        operation: {
+            toolName: string;
+            parameters: Record<string, any>;
+            context?: Record<string, any>;
+        }
+    ): Promise<RiskScore> {
+        const riskFactors: Array<{
+            factor: string;
+            weight: number;
+            score: number;
+            description: string;
+        }> = [];
+        
+        // Error probability risk
+        const errorPrediction = await this.predictErrors(
+            agentId,
+            channelId,
+            operation.toolName,
+            operation.parameters
+        );
+        
+        riskFactors.push({
+            factor: 'error_probability',
+            weight: 0.3,
+            score: errorPrediction.prediction.value as number * 100,
+            description: `${((errorPrediction.prediction.value as number) * 100).toFixed(0)}% chance of error`
+        });
+        
+        // Tool complexity risk
+        const complexity = this.calculateToolComplexity(operation.toolName);
+        riskFactors.push({
+            factor: 'tool_complexity',
+            weight: 0.2,
+            score: complexity * 100,
+            description: `Tool complexity: ${complexity > 0.7 ? 'High' : complexity > 0.4 ? 'Medium' : 'Low'}`
+        });
+        
+        // Agent experience risk
+        const agentMetrics = await this.getAgentMetrics(agentId);
+        const experienceRisk = Math.max(0, 1 - (agentMetrics.successfulCalls / 100));
+        riskFactors.push({
+            factor: 'agent_experience',
+            weight: 0.2,
+            score: experienceRisk * 100,
+            description: `Agent has ${agentMetrics.successfulCalls} successful operations`
+        });
+        
+        // System load risk
+        const systemContext = this.getSystemContext();
+        riskFactors.push({
+            factor: 'system_load',
+            weight: 0.15,
+            score: systemContext.load * 100,
+            description: `System load: ${(systemContext.load * 100).toFixed(0)}%`
+        });
+        
+        // Parameter pattern risk
+        const patternMatch = await this.calculatePatternMatch(
+            operation.toolName,
+            operation.parameters
+        );
+        const patternRisk = 1 - patternMatch;
+        riskFactors.push({
+            factor: 'parameter_pattern',
+            weight: 0.15,
+            score: patternRisk * 100,
+            description: `Parameter pattern match: ${(patternMatch * 100).toFixed(0)}%`
+        });
+        
+        // Calculate overall risk
+        const overallRisk = riskFactors.reduce(
+            (total, factor) => total + factor.score * factor.weight,
+            0
+        );
+        
+        // Determine trend
+        const historicalRisk = await this.getHistoricalRisk(agentId);
+        const trend = overallRisk > historicalRisk + 5 ? 'increasing' :
+                     overallRisk < historicalRisk - 5 ? 'decreasing' : 'stable';
+        
+        // Generate mitigation strategies
+        const mitigation = this.generateMitigationStrategies(riskFactors);
+        
+        const riskScore: RiskScore = {
+            scoreId: uuidv4(),
+            timestamp: Date.now(),
+            overallRisk,
+            riskFactors,
+            mitigation,
+            trend
+        };
+        
+        return riskScore;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Generate mitigation strategies
+     */
+    private generateMitigationStrategies(
+        riskFactors: Array<{ factor: string; score: number }>
+    ): string[] {
+        const strategies: string[] = [];
+        
+        for (const factor of riskFactors) {
+            if (factor.score > 70) {
+                switch (factor.factor) {
+                    case 'error_probability':
+                        strategies.push('Use validation_preview before execution');
+                        strategies.push('Review parameters with tool_help');
+                        break;
+                    case 'tool_complexity':
+                        strategies.push('Break operation into smaller steps');
+                        strategies.push('Use simpler alternative tools if available');
+                        break;
+                    case 'agent_experience':
+                        strategies.push('Start with simpler operations');
+                        strategies.push('Use help tools for guidance');
+                        break;
+                    case 'system_load':
+                        strategies.push('Defer non-critical operations');
+                        strategies.push('Enable async validation mode');
+                        break;
+                    case 'parameter_pattern':
+                        strategies.push('Review successful parameter examples');
+                        strategies.push('Use validation_hints for suggestions');
+                        break;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        
+        return [...new Set(strategies)]; // Remove duplicates
+    }
+    
+    // =============================================================================
+    // MODEL MANAGEMENT
+    // =============================================================================
+    
+    /**
+     * Initialize models
+     */
+    private initializeModels(): void {
+        // Initialize simplified models
+        // In production, would load actual trained models
+        
+        this.models.set('error_prediction', {
+            type: ModelType.GRADIENT_BOOSTING,
+            predict: (features: number[]) => ({ score: 0.5, confidence: 0.7 })
+        });
+        
+        this.models.set('anomaly_detection', {
+            type: ModelType.ISOLATION_FOREST,
+            predict: (features: number[]) => ({ score: 0.5 })
+        });
+        
+        this.models.set('pattern_forecast', {
+            type: ModelType.LSTM,
+            predict: (sequence: number[]) => sequence[sequence.length - 1] * 1.1
+        });
+        
+        // Set metadata
+        for (const [name, model] of this.models) {
+            this.modelMetadata.set(name, {
+                modelId: uuidv4(),
+                type: model.type,
+                version: '1.0.0',
+                trainedAt: Date.now(),
+                accuracy: 0.75,
+                features: [],
+                hyperparameters: {},
+                trainingDataSize: 1000,
+                validationMetrics: { accuracy: 0.75, precision: 0.8, recall: 0.7 }
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Train models
+     */
+    public async trainModels(): Promise<void> {
+        if (this.trainingData.length < this.config.minTrainingDataSize) {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        try {
+            // Train error prediction model
+            await this.trainErrorPredictionModel();
+
+            // Train anomaly detection model
+            await this.trainAnomalyDetectionModel();
+
+            // Update metrics
+            this.metrics.modelRetrains++;
+        } catch (error) {
+            this.logger.error('Model training failed:', error);
+        }
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Train error prediction model.
+     *
+     * When TF.js is enabled and sufficient training samples exist:
+     * - Vectorizes features and binary labels from collected training data
+     * - Calls MxfMLService.train() to run supervised training on the Dense classifier
+     * - Updates internal model metadata with real training metrics
+     * - Saves the trained model to persistent storage (GridFS)
+     * - Marks the TF.js model as ready for inference
+     *
+     * When TF.js is disabled, updates metadata with simulated accuracy
+     * (preserving the original behavior for non-TF.js deployments).
+     */
+    private async trainErrorPredictionModel(): Promise<void> {
+        // Extract features and labels from collected training data
+        const features: number[][] = [];
+        const labels: number[] = [];
+
+        for (const sample of this.trainingData) {
+            if (sample.label.type === 'error_occurred') {
+                features.push(this.vectorizeFeatures(sample.features));
+                labels.push(sample.label.value ? 1 : 0);
+            }
+        }
+
+        if (features.length < 50) return;
+
+        // Try TF.js training if enabled
+        if (isTensorFlowEnabled()) {
+            try {
+                const mlService = MxfMLService.getInstance();
+
+                if (!mlService.isEnabled()) {
+                    this.logger.debug(
+                        '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] MxfMLService not enabled, using simulated training'
+                    );
+                    this.updateHeuristicMetadata(features.length);
+                    return;
+                }
+
+                // Ensure model is registered (idempotent check — may already be registered)
+                const existingModel = mlService.getModel(TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID);
+                if (!existingModel) {
+                    this.logger.warn(
+                        '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js error prediction model not registered, ' +
+                        'falling back to simulated training'
+                    );
+                    this.updateHeuristicMetadata(features.length);
+                    return;
+                }
+
+                // Check minimum training samples for TF.js model
+                if (features.length < existingModel.config.minTrainingSamples) {
+                    this.logger.debug(
+                        `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] Not enough training samples for TF.js: ` +
+                        `${features.length}/${existingModel.config.minTrainingSamples}`
+                    );
+                    return;
+                }
+
+                // Format labels as 2D array for MxfMLService.train()
+                const yData = labels.map(l => [l]);
+
+                // Train the TF.js model
+                const metrics = await mlService.train(
+                    TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID,
+                    features,
+                    yData
+                );
+
+                // Update internal metadata with real training metrics
+                const modelMeta = this.modelMetadata.get('error_prediction');
+                if (modelMeta) {
+                    modelMeta.trainedAt = Date.now();
+                    modelMeta.trainingDataSize = features.length;
+                    modelMeta.accuracy = metrics.accuracy ?? metrics.valAccuracy ?? 0.75;
+                    modelMeta.validationMetrics = {
+                        accuracy: metrics.accuracy ?? 0,
+                        val_accuracy: metrics.valAccuracy ?? 0,
+                        loss: metrics.loss,
+                        val_loss: metrics.valLoss ?? 0,
+                    };
+                }
+
+                // Mark TF.js model as ready for inference
+                this.tfErrorPredictionReady = true;
+
+                // Save trained model to persistent storage
+                try {
+                    await mlService.saveModel(TF_ERROR_PREDICTION_MODEL_ID);
+                } catch (saveError) {
+                    this.logger.warn(
+                        `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] Failed to save trained model: ` +
+                        `${saveError instanceof Error ? saveError.message : String(saveError)}`
+                    );
+                }
+
+                this.logger.info(
+                    `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js error prediction model trained ` +
+                    `(samples=${features.length}, loss=${metrics.loss.toFixed(4)}, ` +
+                    `accuracy=${(metrics.accuracy ?? 0).toFixed(4)})`
+                );
+
+                return;
+            } catch (error) {
+                this.logger.error(
+                    `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js training failed, updating heuristic metadata: ` +
+                    `${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`
+                );
+                // Fall through to heuristic metadata update
+            }
+        }
+
+        // Non-TF.js path: update metadata with simulated accuracy
+        this.updateHeuristicMetadata(features.length);
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Update model metadata with simulated accuracy for heuristic-only mode.
+     *
+     * Preserves the original behavior when TF.js is disabled.
+     */
+    private updateHeuristicMetadata(sampleCount: number): void {
+        const modelMeta = this.modelMetadata.get('error_prediction');
+        if (modelMeta) {
+            modelMeta.trainedAt = Date.now();
+            modelMeta.trainingDataSize = sampleCount;
+            modelMeta.accuracy = null; // heuristics have no measured validation accuracy
+        }
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Train anomaly detection model.
+     *
+     * When TF.js is enabled and sufficient training samples exist:
+     * - Vectorizes ALL feature vectors from collected training data (unsupervised —
+     *   the autoencoder trains to reconstruct its input, so xData = yData)
+     * - Calls MxfMLService.train() to run training on the autoencoder
+     * - Updates internal model metadata with real training metrics
+     * - Saves the trained model to persistent storage (GridFS)
+     * - Marks the TF.js autoencoder as ready for inference
+     *
+     * When TF.js is disabled, updates metadata with simulated accuracy
+     * (preserving the original behavior for non-TF.js deployments).
+     */
+    private async trainAnomalyDetectionModel(): Promise<void> {
+        // Extract ALL feature vectors — autoencoder is unsupervised,
+        // it learns "normal" patterns regardless of error labels
+        const features: number[][] = [];
+
+        for (const sample of this.trainingData) {
+            features.push(this.vectorizeFeatures(sample.features));
+        }
+
+        // Try TF.js training if enabled
+        if (isTensorFlowEnabled() && features.length > 0) {
+            try {
+                const mlService = MxfMLService.getInstance();
+
+                if (!mlService.isEnabled()) {
+                    this.logger.debug(
+                        '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] MxfMLService not enabled, using simulated anomaly training'
+                    );
+                    this.updateAnomalyHeuristicMetadata();
+                    return;
+                }
+
+                // Ensure model is registered
+                const existingModel = mlService.getModel(TF_ANOMALY_AUTOENCODER_MODEL_ID);
+                if (!existingModel) {
+                    this.logger.warn(
+                        '[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js anomaly autoencoder model not registered, ' +
+                        'falling back to simulated training'
+                    );
+                    this.updateAnomalyHeuristicMetadata();
+                    return;
+                }
+
+                // Check minimum training samples
+                if (features.length < existingModel.config.minTrainingSamples) {
+                    this.logger.debug(
+                        `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] Not enough training samples for anomaly autoencoder: ` +
+                        `${features.length}/${existingModel.config.minTrainingSamples}`
+                    );
+                    return;
+                }
+
+                // Autoencoder: input = output (learns to reconstruct normal patterns)
+                const metrics = await mlService.train(
+                    TF_ANOMALY_AUTOENCODER_MODEL_ID,
+                    features,
+                    features
+                );
+
+                // Update internal metadata with real training metrics
+                const modelMeta = this.modelMetadata.get('anomaly_detection');
+                if (modelMeta) {
+                    modelMeta.trainedAt = Date.now();
+                    modelMeta.trainingDataSize = features.length;
+                    // For autoencoders, accuracy is not directly applicable —
+                    // use inverse of loss as a quality indicator (lower loss = better reconstruction)
+                    modelMeta.accuracy = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, 1 - metrics.loss));
+                    modelMeta.validationMetrics = {
+                        loss: metrics.loss,
+                        val_loss: metrics.valLoss ?? 0,
+                    };
+                }
+
+                // Mark TF.js autoencoder as ready for inference
+                this.tfAnomalyAutoencoderReady = true;
+
+                // Save trained model to persistent storage
+                try {
+                    await mlService.saveModel(TF_ANOMALY_AUTOENCODER_MODEL_ID);
+                } catch (saveError) {
+                    this.logger.warn(
+                        `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] Failed to save anomaly autoencoder model: ` +
+                        `${saveError instanceof Error ? saveError.message : String(saveError)}`
+                    );
+                }
+
+                this.logger.info(
+                    `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js anomaly autoencoder trained ` +
+                    `(samples=${features.length}, loss=${metrics.loss.toFixed(4)})`
+                );
+
+                return;
+            } catch (error) {
+                this.logger.error(
+                    `[PredictiveAnalyticsService] TF.js anomaly autoencoder training failed, ` +
+                    `updating heuristic metadata: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`
+                );
+                // Fall through to heuristic metadata update
+            }
+        }
+
+        // Non-TF.js path: update metadata with simulated accuracy
+        this.updateAnomalyHeuristicMetadata();
+    }
+
+    /**
+     * Update anomaly detection model metadata with simulated accuracy for heuristic-only mode.
+     *
+     * Preserves the original behavior when TF.js is disabled.
+     */
+    private updateAnomalyHeuristicMetadata(): void {
+        const modelMeta = this.modelMetadata.get('anomaly_detection');
+        if (modelMeta) {
+            modelMeta.trainedAt = Date.now();
+            modelMeta.accuracy = null; // heuristics have no measured validation accuracy
+        }
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Vectorize features
+     */
+    private vectorizeFeatures(features: FeatureVector): number[] {
+        return [
+            features.toolComplexity,
+            features.parameterCount,
+            features.parameterPatternMatch,
+            features.agentExperience,
+            features.agentErrorRate,
+            features.timeOfDay / 24,
+            features.dayOfWeek / 7,
+            features.systemLoad,
+            features.concurrentRequests / 100,
+            features.recentErrors / 10,
+            features.recentSuccesses / 100,
+            features.averageLatency / 1000
+        ];
+    }
+    
+    // =============================================================================
+    // HELPER METHODS
+    // =============================================================================
+    
+    /**
+     * Get agent metrics
+     */
+    private async getAgentMetrics(agentId: AgentId): Promise<any> {
+        // Would query actual metrics
+        return {
+            successfulCalls: 100,
+            errorRate: 0.1,
+            recentErrors: 2,
+            recentSuccesses: 18,
+            averageLatency: 150
+        };
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Calculate tool complexity
+     */
+    private calculateToolComplexity(toolName: string): number {
+        const complexTools = ['file_write', 'execute_command', 'database_query'];
+        const simpleTools = ['calculator', 'echo', 'get_time'];
+        
+        if (complexTools.includes(toolName)) return 0.8;
+        if (simpleTools.includes(toolName)) return 0.2;
+        return 0.5;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Categorize tool
+     */
+    private categorizeTool(toolName: string): string {
+        if (!toolName) return 'general';
+        if (toolName.includes('file')) return 'filesystem';
+        if (toolName.includes('web') || toolName.includes('http')) return 'network';
+        if (toolName.includes('calc') || toolName.includes('math')) return 'computation';
+        if (toolName.includes('data') || toolName.includes('query')) return 'database';
+        return 'general';
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Get system context
+     */
+    private getSystemContext(): { load: number; concurrentRequests: number } {
+        // Real normalized CPU load. Concurrent request tracking has no data
+        // source yet — 0 means "untracked", never a fabricated number.
+        return {
+            load: os.loadavg()[0] / os.cpus().length,
+            concurrentRequests: 0
+        };
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Calculate pattern match
+     */
+    private async calculatePatternMatch(
+        toolName: string,
+        parameters: Record<string, any>
+    ): Promise<number> {
+        // No pattern store is wired up yet: return neutral evidence (0)
+        // rather than a fabricated score.
+        return 0;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Analyze error patterns
+     */
+    private analyzeErrorPatterns(errors: any[]): string[] {
+        const patterns: string[] = [];
+        
+        const errorTypes = errors.map(e => e.type || 'unknown');
+        const typeCounts = new Map<string, number>();
+        
+        for (const type of errorTypes) {
+            typeCounts.set(type, (typeCounts.get(type) || 0) + 1);
+        }
+        
+        for (const [type, count] of typeCounts) {
+            if (count > 2) patterns.push(type);
+        }
+        
+        return patterns;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Get parameter patterns
+     */
+    private async getParameterPatterns(toolName: string): Promise<any[]> {
+        // Would retrieve from pattern learning service
+        return [];
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Get agent behavior
+     */
+    private async getAgentBehavior(agentId: AgentId): Promise<any> {
+        return {
+            commonTools: ['calculator', 'web_search', 'file_read'],
+            averageToolsPerSession: 5,
+            preferredPatterns: []
+        };
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Get performance history
+     */
+    private async getPerformanceHistory(toolName: string): Promise<any> {
+        return {
+            avgLatency: 100,
+            stdDevLatency: 20,
+            p95Latency: 150,
+            p99Latency: 200
+        };
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Matches patterns
+     */
+    private matchesPatterns(
+        toolName: string,
+        parameters: Record<string, any>,
+        patterns: any[]
+    ): number {
+        // Simplified pattern matching
+        return 0.7;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Get success rate by hour
+     */
+    private async getSuccessRateByHour(_agentId: AgentId): Promise<number[] | null> {
+        // No per-hour success metrics are recorded yet. Returning null keeps
+        // the timing suggestion honest — fabricated rates produced fake
+        // "your success rate is higher around X:00" advice.
+        return null;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Find best hour
+     */
+    private findBestHour(successByHour: number[]): number {
+        let bestHour = 0;
+        let bestRate = 0;
+        
+        for (let i = 0; i < successByHour.length; i++) {
+            if (successByHour[i] > bestRate) {
+                bestRate = successByHour[i];
+                bestHour = i;
+            }
+        }
+        
+        return bestHour;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Get pattern history
+     */
+    private async getPatternHistory(
+        pattern: string,
+        _timeframe: string
+    ): Promise<number[]> {
+        // Fail fast: there is no historical pattern store. Forecasting over
+        // fabricated data produced confident-looking noise.
+        throw new Error(
+            `Pattern history tracking is not implemented — cannot forecast '${pattern}' without a data source`
+        );
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Get historical risk
+     */
+    private async getHistoricalRisk(agentId: AgentId): Promise<number> {
+        return 45; // Baseline risk
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Generate cache key
+     */
+    private generateCacheKey(
+        type: string,
+        agentId: AgentId,
+        toolName: string,
+        parameters: Record<string, any>
+    ): string {
+        return `${type}:${agentId}:${toolName}:${JSON.stringify(parameters)}`;
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Update prediction time
+     */
+    private updatePredictionTime(time: number): void {
+        const alpha = 0.1; // Exponential smoothing factor
+        this.metrics.averagePredictionTime = 
+            alpha * time + (1 - alpha) * this.metrics.averagePredictionTime;
+    }
+    
+    // =============================================================================
+    // EVENT LISTENERS
+    // =============================================================================
+    
+    /**
+     * Setup event listeners
+     */
+    private setupEventListeners(): void {
+        // Collect training data from events
+        EventBus.server.on(Events.Mcp.TOOL_RESULT, async (event) => {
+            try {
+                const features = await this.extractFeatures(
+                    event.agentId,
+                    event.channelId,
+                    event.toolName,
+                    event.parameters || {}
+                );
+                
+                this.trainingData.push({
+                    features,
+                    label: {
+                        type: 'error_occurred',
+                        value: !event.success
+                    },
+                    timestamp: Date.now()
+                });
+                
+                // Trim training data
+                if (this.trainingData.length > this.config.maxTrainingDataSize) {
+                    this.trainingData.shift();
+                }
+                
+            } catch (error) {
+                this.logger.warn('Failed to collect training data:', error);
+            }
+        });
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Start retrain schedule.
+     *
+     * When TF.js is enabled, both error prediction and anomaly detection
+     * retraining are managed by MxfMLService.scheduleRetrain() (configured
+     * in initializeTfErrorPrediction() and initializeTfAnomalyAutoencoder()).
+     * This interval serves as the retraining path when TF.js is disabled
+     * and as a fallback when MxfMLService scheduling is not active.
+     */
+    private startRetrainSchedule(): void {
+        this.retrainInterval = setInterval(() => {
+            this.trainModels();
+        }, this.config.retrainInterval);
+    }
+    
+    // =============================================================================
+    // PUBLIC API
+    // =============================================================================
+    
+    /**
+     * Get model metadata
+     */
+    public getModelMetadata(): ModelMetadata[] {
+        return Array.from(this.modelMetadata.values());
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Get metrics
+     */
+    public getMetrics(): any {
+        return { ...this.metrics };
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Get configuration
+     */
+    public getConfig(): any {
+        return { ...this.config };
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Update configuration
+     */
+    public updateConfig(newConfig: Partial<typeof this.config>): void {
+        this.config = { ...this.config, ...newConfig };
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Clear training data (for testing)
+     */
+    public clearTrainingData(): void {
+        this.trainingData.length = 0;
+        this.predictionCache.clear();
+    }
+    
+    /**
+     * Cleanup.
+     *
+     * Stops the retrain schedule. TF.js model disposal is handled by
+     * MxfMLService.dispose() during server shutdown.
+     */
+    public cleanup(): void {
+        if (this.retrainInterval) {
+            clearInterval(this.retrainInterval);
+        }
+        this.tfErrorPredictionReady = false;
+        this.tfAnomalyAutoencoderReady = false;
+    }
+}