@moonpay/cli 1.44.1 → 1.46.0

package/skills/moonpay-prediction-market/SKILL.md

@@ -1,157 +1,66 @@
 ---
 name: moonpay-prediction-market
-description: Trade on prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi). Search markets, buy/sell positions, track PnL, and view trade history.
-tags: [trading, prediction-market, polymarket, kalshi]
+description: Overview + venue chooser for prediction-market trading. Routes the user to either moonpay-polymarket (politics, crypto, news, world events on Polygon) or moonpay-kalshi (sports, macro, US-regulated events on Solana). Use when the user's request is venue-agnostic ("what prediction markets are hot?") or to teach the venue trade-offs.
+tags: [trading, prediction-market]
 ---
 
-# Prediction markets
+# Prediction markets — overview
 
-## Goal
+Two venues. Different chains, different specialties. Pick by topic.
 
-Search prediction markets, buy and sell outcome shares, track positions and PnL.
+| | Polymarket | Kalshi |
+|---|---|---|
+| Chain | Polygon | Solana |
+| Settles in | USDC.e | USDC |
+| Bridging needed? | Yes (USDC → USDC.e) | No |
+| Strong on | politics, crypto, news, world events | sports (NBA, NFL, MLB), macro, US-regulated |
+| Liquidity | largest catalog | growing fast on sports |
+| Min order | none enforced | `size × price` must be ≥ $1 |
 
-Supports two providers:
-- **Polymarket** — runs on Polygon (USDC.e). Requires an EVM wallet.
-- **Kalshi** — runs on Solana (USDC). Requires a Solana wallet.
+## Pick a venue
 
-## Prerequisites
+Default routing rules — read first, then defer to the venue's skill:
 
-1. Authenticate: `mp login --email <email>` then `mp verify --email <email> --code <code>`
-2. Have a local wallet: `mp wallet list` (create with `mp wallet create --name "main"` if needed)
-3. Register your wallet with the provider (one-time setup):
+- User mentions **NBA / NFL / MLB / sports** → **moonpay-kalshi**
+- User mentions **CPI, Fed, jobs report, economic indicator** → **moonpay-kalshi**
+- User mentions **election, politics, candidate** → **moonpay-polymarket**
+- User mentions **Bitcoin price target, crypto event, ETF approval** → **moonpay-polymarket**
+- User mentions **Polymarket** explicitly → **moonpay-polymarket**
+- User mentions **Kalshi** explicitly → **moonpay-kalshi**
+- Venue-agnostic ask ("what's spicy on prediction markets?") → check both with `mp prediction-market market trending list`, surface highlights
 
-```bash
-# For Polymarket (use your EVM/Polygon address)
-mp prediction-market user create --provider polymarket --wallet <evm-address>
-
-# For Kalshi (use your Solana address)
-mp prediction-market user create --provider kalshi --wallet <solana-address>
-```
+## Cross-venue commands
 
-4. Fund the wallet — Polymarket needs USDC.e on Polygon, Kalshi needs USDC on Solana. See the **moonpay-fund-polymarket** or **moonpay-buy-crypto** skills.
-
-## Browse and research markets
+A few things are venue-shape-identical (the `--provider` flag picks):
 
 ```bash
-# Search markets by keyword
-mp prediction-market market search --provider polymarket --query "bitcoin" --limit 10
-
-# Get trending markets (sorted by 24h volume, min $150K)
+# Trending across either venue
 mp prediction-market market trending list --provider polymarket --limit 10
+mp prediction-market market trending list --provider kalshi --limit 10
 
-# Browse market categories/tags
-mp prediction-market market tag list --provider polymarket
+# Search across either venue
+mp prediction-market market search --provider polymarket --query "..."
+mp prediction-market market search --provider kalshi --query "..."
 
-# Filter markets by tag
-mp prediction-market market search --provider polymarket --query "*" --tagIds "crypto,politics"
-
-# Get full event details (all markets, outcomes, prices)
-mp prediction-market market event retrieve --provider polymarket --slug <event-slug>
-
-# Check current price for an outcome token
-mp prediction-market market price retrieve --provider polymarket --tokenId <token-id>
-
-# View price history for an outcome
-mp prediction-market market price-history list --provider polymarket --tokenId <token-id> --interval 1w
+# Position list / PnL / trades / activity (per-venue, same shape)
+mp prediction-market position list --provider <venue> --wallet <addr>
+mp prediction-market pnl retrieve --provider <venue> --wallet <addr>
+mp prediction-market trade list --provider <venue> --wallet <addr>
+mp prediction-market activity list --provider <venue> --wallet <addr>
 ```
 
-## Buy and sell positions
-
-```bash
-# Buy shares of an outcome
-mp prediction-market position buy \
-  --wallet main \
-  --provider polymarket \
-  --tokenId <outcome-token-id> \
-  --price 0.65 \
-  --size 100
-
-# Sell shares
-mp prediction-market position sell \
-  --wallet main \
-  --provider polymarket \
-  --tokenId <outcome-token-id> \
-  --price 0.70 \
-  --size 50
-```
-
-**Key concepts:**
-- `tokenId` comes from `outcomeTokens[].tokenId` in market search results
-- `price` is 0-1 (e.g., 0.65 = 65 cents per share, implies 65% probability)
-- `size` is the number of shares
-- Cost = price x size (e.g., 0.65 x 100 = $65 USDC)
-- If the outcome resolves YES, each share pays $1. Profit = (1 - price) x size
-
-## Track positions and performance
-
-```bash
-# View open positions
-mp prediction-market position list --provider polymarket --wallet <address>
-
-# View closed positions
-mp prediction-market position list --provider polymarket --wallet <address> --status closed
-
-# Get PnL summary
-mp prediction-market pnl retrieve --provider polymarket --wallet <address>
-
-# View trade history
-mp prediction-market trade list --provider polymarket --wallet <address>
-
-# View all activity (trades, splits, merges, redemptions)
-mp prediction-market activity list --provider polymarket --wallet <address>
-```
-
-## Workflow
-
-1. **Discover**: Search or browse trending markets.
-2. **Research**: Get event details, check prices, review price history.
-3. **Trade**: Buy shares on outcomes you believe are mispriced.
-4. **Monitor**: Track positions and PnL.
-5. **Exit**: Sell positions when your thesis changes, or wait for resolution.
-
-## Example: trade a market
-
-```bash
-# 1. Find a market
-mp prediction-market market search --provider polymarket --query "bitcoin 100k"
-
-# 2. Get event details (note the outcomeTokens)
-mp prediction-market market event retrieve --provider polymarket --slug <slug-from-search>
-
-# 3. Check price history
-mp prediction-market market price-history list --provider polymarket --tokenId <yes-token-id> --interval 1w
-
-# 4. Buy 50 "Yes" shares at 40 cents
-mp prediction-market position buy --wallet main --provider polymarket --tokenId <yes-token-id> --price 0.40 --size 50
-
-# 5. Check your position
-mp prediction-market position list --provider polymarket --wallet <address>
-
-# 6. Sell later at a higher price
-mp prediction-market position sell --wallet main --provider polymarket --tokenId <yes-token-id> --price 0.60 --size 50
-```
-
-## Price history intervals
-
-| Interval | Description |
-|----------|-------------|
-| `1hr` | Last hour |
-| `1d` | Last day |
-| `1w` | Last week |
-| `1m` | Last month |
-| `max` | All time |
+The actual buy/sell flow + funding requirements diverge — read **moonpay-polymarket** or **moonpay-kalshi** for the venue-specific recipe.
 
 ## Tips
 
-- Use `mp --json prediction-market ...` for programmatic output (the `--json` flag is a global option that goes BEFORE the subcommand)
-- Markets with higher volume and liquidity have tighter spreads
-- Check `acceptingOrders` — closed markets cannot be traded
-- `negRisk` markets use a different settlement framework — the CLI handles this automatically
-- Polymarket uses USDC.e on Polygon; Kalshi uses USDC on Solana
+- `--json` is a global flag, BEFORE the subcommand.
+- `acceptingOrders: true` must be present before any buy — closed markets reject orders.
+- Don't fund Polymarket with regular USDC — it's USDC.e on Polygon (a different mint). See **moonpay-fund-polymarket**.
+- Kalshi's $1 minimum: 1 share at 30¢ won't fill; 4 shares at 30¢ ($1.20) will.
 
 ## Related skills
 
-- **moonpay-fund-polymarket** — Fund your Polymarket wallet with USDC.e and POL
-- **moonpay-check-wallet** — Check Polygon/Solana balances
-- **moonpay-swap-tokens** — Bridge tokens to Polygon
-- **moonpay-trading-automation** — Automate trading strategies
+- **moonpay-polymarket** — full Polymarket trading workflow
+- **moonpay-kalshi** — full Kalshi trading workflow
+- **moonpay-fund-polymarket** — fund USDC.e + POL on Polygon
+- **moonpay-check-wallet** — check positions across chains