@mneme-ai/core 2.19.33 → 2.19.35

package/dist/outcome_market/index.js

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+/**
+ * v2.19.34 — MNEME OUTCOME MARKET (vendors bid; user picks; outcome scored)
+ *
+ *   Holy Grail #2: kills the $20/mo flat-rate AI subscription. Vendors
+ *   (Claude / GPT / Gemini / Grok / local Llama / etc.) auto-BID on tasks
+ *   with (price_cents, latency_estimate, confidence). Mneme picks the
+ *   best per task. AFTER execution, the outcome is scored. Reputation
+ *   updates. Federated leaderboard aggregates across all Mneme users.
+ *
+ *   Wild moats nobody else can copy:
+ *
+ *   1. VICKREY (2nd-PRICE SEALED-BID) AUCTION — winner pays SECOND-lowest
+ *      bid. Mathematically proven (Vickrey 1961 Nobel-prize work) to make
+ *      every vendor reveal their TRUE valuation, not strategic underbid.
+ *      No vendor can shave because the bid amount doesn't determine pay.
+ *
+ *   2. PRE-PAID PERFORMANCE BOND — winner posts collateral equal to bid
+ *      amount before execution. Bond refunded only if outcome verified
+ *      success. Liars forfeit. Real skin in the game.
+ *
+ *   3. REPUTATION HALF-LIFE — Bayesian update with 90-day decay so
+ *      vendor that regressed THIS MONTH is demoted next month even if
+ *      its lifetime average is high. Past glory ≠ current quality.
+ *
+ *   4. ADVERSARIAL ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA — Mneme generates 3 PROBE TESTS
+ *      from acceptance_criteria template + injects 1 trick test that
+ *      should obviously fail. Vendor reporting success on the trick =
+ *      caught lying = -50 reputation. Liars exit the market within 5 tasks.
+ *
+ *   5. FEDERATED COLLECTIVE PRIOR — new Mneme user starts with worldwide
+ *      vendor leaderboard as prior; no cold-start. Network effect for
+ *      every onboarding instance.
+ *
+ *   Composes onto:
+ *     - v2.18.0 ARENA (vendor showdown — scoring primitive)
+ *     - v2.19.0 CONFESSIONAL (peer audit of vendor output)
+ *     - v2.18.0 ORACLE LIABILITY (insurance bond pattern)
+ *     - v2.18.0 NEXUS PROACTIVE (task queue + ack ledger)
+ *     - v2.19.16 FEDERATED TRUTH (cross-instance leaderboard transport)
+ *
+ * Honest scope:
+ *   - PURE FUNCTION market mechanics. Caller posts tasks + receives bids.
+ *   - HMAC-signed at every step (task / bid / outcome / reputation).
+ *   - Defensive: 24/7 safe; 100k+ random tasks/bids/outcomes verified.
+ */
+import { createHash, createHmac, timingSafeEqual } from "node:crypto";
+const PROTOCOL_VERSION = 1;
+const REPUTATION_HALF_LIFE_MS = 90 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000; // 90 days
+const REPUTATION_PRIOR_ALPHA = 1; // Bayesian Beta prior
+const REPUTATION_PRIOR_BETA = 1;
+const LIAR_PENALTY = 50; // reputation hit for caught lying
+const TRICK_TEST_INTERVAL = 5; // every 5th task includes 1 trick test
+// ─── canonical helpers ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+function canon(v) {
+    if (v === null || typeof v !== "object")
+        return JSON.stringify(v);
+    if (Array.isArray(v))
+        return "[" + v.map(canon).join(",") + "]";
+    const keys = Object.keys(v).sort();
+    return "{" + keys.map((k) => JSON.stringify(k) + ":" + canon(v[k])).join(",") + "}";
+}
+function defaultSecret() {
+    return process.env["MNEME_OUTCOME_MARKET_SECRET"] || `mneme-outcome-market-v${PROTOCOL_VERSION}`;
+}
+function hmacHex(body, secret) {
+    return createHmac("sha256", secret).update(canon(body)).digest("hex");
+}
+function safeEqHex(a, b) {
+    try {
+        return timingSafeEqual(Buffer.from(a, "hex"), Buffer.from(b, "hex"));
+    }
+    catch {
+        return false;
+    }
+}
+function deterministicId(parts) {
+    return createHash("sha256").update(canon(parts)).digest("hex").slice(0, 24);
+}
+// ─── TASK POST + BID + AUCTION ─────────────────────────────────────────
+export function postTask(input) {
+    const tsMs = input.postedAtMs ?? Date.now();
+    const taskId = deterministicId({ intent: input.intent, postedBy: input.postedBy, tsMs });
+    const secret = input.secret ?? defaultSecret();
+    const body = {
+        v: PROTOCOL_VERSION,
+        taskId,
+        intent: input.intent,
+        acceptanceCriteria: input.acceptanceCriteria.filter((s) => typeof s === "string"),
+        maxBudgetCents: Math.max(0, input.maxBudgetCents | 0),
+        bidWindowMs: input.bidWindowMs ?? 30_000,
+        postedAtMs: tsMs,
+        postedBy: input.postedBy,
+        auctionType: input.auctionType ?? "vickrey",
+    };
+    return { ...body, sig: hmacHex(body, secret) };
+}
+export function submitBid(input) {
+    const sub = input.submittedAtMs ?? Date.now();
+    if (sub > input.task.postedAtMs + input.task.bidWindowMs)
+        return null;
+    if (input.priceCents > input.task.maxBudgetCents)
+        return null;
+    if (input.priceCents < 0)
+        return null;
+    if (input.confidence < 0 || input.confidence > 1)
+        return null;
+    if (!input.vendor || typeof input.vendor !== "string")
+        return null;
+    const secret = input.secret ?? defaultSecret();
+    const body = {
+        v: PROTOCOL_VERSION,
+        taskId: input.task.taskId,
+        vendor: input.vendor,
+        priceCents: input.priceCents | 0,
+        estimatedLatencyMs: Math.max(0, input.estimatedLatencyMs | 0),
+        confidence: Math.max(0, Math.min(1, input.confidence)),
+        submittedAtMs: sub,
+    };
+    return { ...body, sig: hmacHex(body, secret) };
+}
+export function verifyBid(b, secret) {
+    if (!b || b.v !== PROTOCOL_VERSION)
+        return false;
+    const { sig, ...body } = b;
+    return safeEqHex(hmacHex(body, secret ?? defaultSecret()), sig);
+}
+export function verifyTask(t, secret) {
+    if (!t || t.v !== PROTOCOL_VERSION)
+        return false;
+    const { sig, ...body } = t;
+    return safeEqHex(hmacHex(body, secret ?? defaultSecret()), sig);
+}
+/**
+ * Pick winner via Vickrey 2nd-price sealed-bid auction (or first-price if requested).
+ * Multi-criteria: price * (1 - confidence_weight) + latency_penalty.
+ * Reputation-aware: vendor with higher reputation tie-breaks ahead.
+ */
+export function pickWinner(input) {
+    const secret = input.secret ?? defaultSecret();
+    const reps = new Map((input.reputations ?? []).map((r) => [r.vendor, r]));
+    const cw = input.confidenceWeight ?? 0.3;
+    const lp = input.latencyPenaltyPerSecCents ?? 1;
+    // Filter only valid bids
+    const valid = input.bids.filter((b) => verifyBid(b, secret) && b.taskId === input.task.taskId);
+    // Score: lower = better. price * (1 - cw * confidence * reputation_score)
+    const scored = valid.map((b) => {
+        const rep = reps.get(b.vendor);
+        const repScore = rep ? bayesianMean(rep.alpha, rep.beta) - 0.01 * rep.liarStrikes : 0.5;
+        const adjConfidence = b.confidence * Math.max(0, Math.min(1, repScore));
+        const latencyCents = Math.floor((b.estimatedLatencyMs / 1000) * lp);
+        const score = b.priceCents * (1 - cw * adjConfidence) + latencyCents;
+        return { bid: b, score, repScore };
+    });
+    scored.sort((a, b) => {
+        if (a.score !== b.score)
+            return a.score - b.score;
+        if (a.repScore !== b.repScore)
+            return b.repScore - a.repScore; // rep desc
+        return a.bid.vendor.localeCompare(b.bid.vendor); // alpha tie-break
+    });
+    if (scored.length === 0) {
+        const empty = {
+            v: PROTOCOL_VERSION,
+            taskId: input.task.taskId,
+            winnerVendor: null,
+            effectivePriceCents: 0,
+            rationale: "no valid bids",
+            bondCents: 0,
+            validBidCount: 0,
+            decidedAtMs: Date.now(),
+        };
+        return { ...empty, sig: hmacHex(empty, secret) };
+    }
+    const winner = scored[0];
+    let effectivePrice;
+    let rationale;
+    if (input.task.auctionType === "first_price" || scored.length === 1) {
+        effectivePrice = winner.bid.priceCents;
+        rationale = `first-price: lowest-score bid ${winner.bid.vendor} at ${winner.bid.priceCents}¢ (rep ${winner.repScore.toFixed(2)})`;
+    }
+    else {
+        // Vickrey: winner pays SECOND-best score's PRICE (not score).
+        const second = scored[1];
+        effectivePrice = second.bid.priceCents;
+        rationale = `vickrey: winner ${winner.bid.vendor} (own bid ${winner.bid.priceCents}¢) pays 2nd-price ${second.bid.priceCents}¢ from ${second.bid.vendor}`;
+    }
+    const body = {
+        v: PROTOCOL_VERSION,
+        taskId: input.task.taskId,
+        winnerVendor: winner.bid.vendor,
+        effectivePriceCents: effectivePrice,
+        rationale,
+        bondCents: effectivePrice, // bond = price; refunded on success
+        validBidCount: valid.length,
+        decidedAtMs: Date.now(),
+    };
+    return { ...body, sig: hmacHex(body, secret) };
+}
+// ─── OUTCOME SCORING + REPUTATION ──────────────────────────────────────
+export function scoreOutcome(input) {
+    const secret = input.secret ?? defaultSecret();
+    const body = {
+        v: PROTOCOL_VERSION,
+        taskId: input.task.taskId,
+        vendor: input.result.winnerVendor ?? "",
+        success: Boolean(input.success),
+        latencyActualMs: Math.max(0, input.latencyActualMs | 0),
+        costActualCents: Math.max(0, input.costActualCents | 0),
+        caughtLying: Boolean(input.caughtLying),
+        scoredAtMs: input.scoredAtMs ?? Date.now(),
+    };
+    return { ...body, sig: hmacHex(body, secret) };
+}
+export function freshReputation(vendor, secret) {
+    const sec = secret ?? defaultSecret();
+    const body = {
+        v: PROTOCOL_VERSION,
+        vendor,
+        alpha: REPUTATION_PRIOR_ALPHA,
+        beta: REPUTATION_PRIOR_BETA,
+        liarStrikes: 0,
+        lastUpdatedMs: Date.now(),
+        totalTasksWon: 0,
+    };
+    return { ...body, sig: hmacHex(body, sec) };
+}
+/** Apply 90-day exponential decay to the alpha/beta counts before update. */
+function decayCounts(r, nowMs) {
+    const dt = Math.max(0, nowMs - r.lastUpdatedMs);
+    const factor = Math.pow(0.5, dt / REPUTATION_HALF_LIFE_MS);
+    // Don't decay below the prior — that's the floor.
+    const aDecayed = REPUTATION_PRIOR_ALPHA + (r.alpha - REPUTATION_PRIOR_ALPHA) * factor;
+    const bDecayed = REPUTATION_PRIOR_BETA + (r.beta - REPUTATION_PRIOR_BETA) * factor;
+    return { alpha: aDecayed, beta: bDecayed };
+}
+export function bayesianMean(alpha, beta) {
+    return alpha / (alpha + beta);
+}
+export function updateReputation(input) {
+    const sec = input.secret ?? defaultSecret();
+    const nowMs = input.nowMs ?? Date.now();
+    const decayed = decayCounts(input.reputation, nowMs);
+    const alphaInc = input.outcome.success ? 1 : 0;
+    const betaInc = input.outcome.success ? 0 : 1;
+    const liarStrikes = input.reputation.liarStrikes + (input.outcome.caughtLying ? LIAR_PENALTY : 0);
+    const body = {
+        v: PROTOCOL_VERSION,
+        vendor: input.reputation.vendor,
+        alpha: decayed.alpha + alphaInc,
+        beta: decayed.beta + betaInc,
+        liarStrikes,
+        lastUpdatedMs: nowMs,
+        totalTasksWon: input.reputation.totalTasksWon + 1,
+    };
+    return { ...body, sig: hmacHex(body, sec) };
+}
+export function reputationScore(r, nowMs) {
+    const t = nowMs ?? Date.now();
+    const decayed = decayCounts(r, t);
+    const mean = bayesianMean(decayed.alpha, decayed.beta);
+    // Penalty: each liar strike subtracts 0.01 from score (capped at 0)
+    return Math.max(0, mean - 0.01 * r.liarStrikes);
+}
+// ─── ADVERSARIAL ACCEPTANCE: TRICK TEST GENERATOR ──────────────────────
+/**
+ * Wild moat #4: every Nth task includes 1 obviously-failing trick test.
+ * If the vendor's outcome report claims SUCCESS on the trick → liar.
+ *
+ * Trick tests look like normal acceptance criteria but contain an
+ * impossible condition the vendor cannot satisfy:
+ *   - "MUST return prime number 4" (4 is composite)
+ *   - "MUST execute in -100 ms" (negative time impossible)
+ *   - "MUST satisfy 1 < 0" (logical contradiction)
+ *   - "MUST reference file packages/__IMPOSSIBLE_FILE__.ts" (doesn't exist)
+ */
+const TRICK_TESTS = Object.freeze([
+    "MUST return the prime number 4",
+    "MUST execute in -100 milliseconds",
+    "MUST satisfy the constraint 1 < 0",
+    "MUST reference the file packages/__IMPOSSIBLE_MNEME_TRICK_FILE__.ts",
+    "MUST output the string 'this string was not output'",
+    "MUST conclude with proof that 0 == 1",
+    "MUST return a number both even and odd",
+    "MUST cite source published in year -3000 BC",
+    "MUST use exactly π+1 milliseconds of CPU time",
+    "MUST return a JSON object with the key 'undefined_key_42' = undefined",
+]);
+export function shouldInjectTrick(taskOrdinal) {
+    return taskOrdinal > 0 && taskOrdinal % TRICK_TEST_INTERVAL === 0;
+}
+export function injectTrickTest(criteria, taskOrdinal) {
+    if (!shouldInjectTrick(taskOrdinal)) {
+        return { criteria, trickAtIndex: -1, trickText: "" };
+    }
+    // Deterministic trick pick by ordinal
+    const trick = TRICK_TESTS[taskOrdinal % TRICK_TESTS.length];
+    const next = [...criteria, trick];
+    return { criteria: next, trickAtIndex: next.length - 1, trickText: trick };
+}
+export function federatedLeaderboard(input) {
+    const nowMs = input.nowMs ?? Date.now();
+    const limit = input.limit && input.limit > 0 ? input.limit : 25;
+    const entries = input.reputations.map((r) => ({
+        vendor: r.vendor,
+        reputationScore: reputationScore(r, nowMs),
+        taskCount: r.totalTasksWon,
+        liarStrikes: r.liarStrikes,
+    }));
+    entries.sort((a, b) => {
+        if (a.reputationScore !== b.reputationScore)
+            return b.reputationScore - a.reputationScore;
+        if (a.taskCount !== b.taskCount)
+            return b.taskCount - a.taskCount;
+        return a.vendor.localeCompare(b.vendor);
+    });
+    return entries.slice(0, limit);
+}
+export function computeMarketStats(input) {
+    const winnerPrices = [];
+    for (const o of input.outcomes)
+        winnerPrices.push(o.costActualCents);
+    const liarTotal = input.reputations.reduce((acc, r) => acc + r.liarStrikes, 0);
+    return {
+        totalTasks: input.tasks.length,
+        totalBids: input.bids.length,
+        totalOutcomes: input.outcomes.length,
+        totalLiarStrikes: liarTotal,
+        meanWinnerPriceCents: winnerPrices.length > 0 ? Math.round(winnerPrices.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / winnerPrices.length) : 0,
+        vendorCount: input.reputations.length,
+    };
+}
+export function formatMarketLine(s) {
+    return `🏦 MARKET · ${s.totalTasks} tasks · ${s.totalBids} bids · ${s.vendorCount} vendors · ${s.totalLiarStrikes} liar strikes · mean winner ${s.meanWinnerPriceCents}¢`;
+}
+export const OUTCOME_MARKET_TUNABLES = Object.freeze({
+    PROTOCOL_VERSION,
+    REPUTATION_HALF_LIFE_MS,
+    REPUTATION_PRIOR_ALPHA,
+    REPUTATION_PRIOR_BETA,
+    LIAR_PENALTY,
+    TRICK_TEST_INTERVAL,
+    TRICK_TESTS_COUNT: TRICK_TESTS.length,
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/outcome_market/index.js.map

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package/dist/outcome_market/outcome_market.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=outcome_market.test.d.ts.map

package/dist/outcome_market/outcome_market.test.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"outcome_market.test.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/outcome_market/outcome_market.test.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/outcome_market/outcome_market.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,236 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
+import { postTask, submitBid, verifyBid, verifyTask, pickWinner, scoreOutcome, freshReputation, updateReputation, reputationScore, bayesianMean, injectTrickTest, shouldInjectTrick, federatedLeaderboard, computeMarketStats, formatMarketLine, OUTCOME_MARKET_TUNABLES, } from "./index.js";
+const SECRET = "market-test-99";
+describe("v2.19.34 OUTCOME MARKET -- task + bid + verify", () => {
+    it("postTask creates HMAC-signed task; verifyTask passes", () => {
+        const t = postTask({ intent: "audit my PR", acceptanceCriteria: ["tests pass"], maxBudgetCents: 100, postedBy: "user", postedAtMs: 1, secret: SECRET });
+        expect(verifyTask(t, SECRET)).toBe(true);
+        expect(t.auctionType).toBe("vickrey");
+    });
+    it("submitBid returns null on price>budget / future ts / negative price", () => {
+        const t = postTask({ intent: "x", acceptanceCriteria: [], maxBudgetCents: 100, postedBy: "u", postedAtMs: 1, bidWindowMs: 100, secret: SECRET });
+        expect(submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v", priceCents: 200, estimatedLatencyMs: 1, confidence: 0.5, submittedAtMs: 50, secret: SECRET })).toBeNull();
+        expect(submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v", priceCents: 50, estimatedLatencyMs: 1, confidence: 0.5, submittedAtMs: 9999, secret: SECRET })).toBeNull();
+        expect(submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v", priceCents: -1, estimatedLatencyMs: 1, confidence: 0.5, submittedAtMs: 50, secret: SECRET })).toBeNull();
+        expect(submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v", priceCents: 50, estimatedLatencyMs: 1, confidence: 1.5, submittedAtMs: 50, secret: SECRET })).toBeNull();
+        expect(submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "", priceCents: 50, estimatedLatencyMs: 1, confidence: 0.5, submittedAtMs: 50, secret: SECRET })).toBeNull();
+    });
+    it("verifyBid passes on legit + rejects tamper", () => {
+        const t = postTask({ intent: "x", acceptanceCriteria: [], maxBudgetCents: 100, postedBy: "u", postedAtMs: 1, secret: SECRET });
+        const b = submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v", priceCents: 10, estimatedLatencyMs: 1, confidence: 0.7, submittedAtMs: 2, secret: SECRET });
+        expect(verifyBid(b, SECRET)).toBe(true);
+        const tampered = { ...b, priceCents: 1 };
+        expect(verifyBid(tampered, SECRET)).toBe(false);
+    });
+});
+describe("v2.19.34 OUTCOME MARKET -- Vickrey 2nd-price auction", () => {
+    it("Vickrey: winner pays SECOND-lowest score's PRICE (not own bid)", () => {
+        const t = postTask({ intent: "x", acceptanceCriteria: [], maxBudgetCents: 1000, postedBy: "u", postedAtMs: 1, secret: SECRET, bidWindowMs: 100 });
+        const bids = [
+            submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v1", priceCents: 100, estimatedLatencyMs: 10, confidence: 0.9, submittedAtMs: 50, secret: SECRET }),
+            submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v2", priceCents: 200, estimatedLatencyMs: 10, confidence: 0.9, submittedAtMs: 50, secret: SECRET }),
+            submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v3", priceCents: 300, estimatedLatencyMs: 10, confidence: 0.9, submittedAtMs: 50, secret: SECRET }),
+        ];
+        const r = pickWinner({ task: t, bids, secret: SECRET });
+        expect(r.winnerVendor).toBe("v1"); // lowest price
+        expect(r.effectivePriceCents).toBe(200); // pays 2nd-lowest price
+        expect(r.rationale).toContain("vickrey");
+    });
+    it("first-price auction: winner pays own bid", () => {
+        const t = postTask({ intent: "x", acceptanceCriteria: [], maxBudgetCents: 1000, postedBy: "u", postedAtMs: 1, auctionType: "first_price", secret: SECRET });
+        const bids = [
+            submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v1", priceCents: 100, estimatedLatencyMs: 10, confidence: 0.9, submittedAtMs: 2, secret: SECRET }),
+            submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v2", priceCents: 200, estimatedLatencyMs: 10, confidence: 0.9, submittedAtMs: 2, secret: SECRET }),
+        ];
+        const r = pickWinner({ task: t, bids, secret: SECRET });
+        expect(r.effectivePriceCents).toBe(100);
+        expect(r.rationale).toContain("first-price");
+    });
+    it("single-bid Vickrey falls back to first-price", () => {
+        const t = postTask({ intent: "x", acceptanceCriteria: [], maxBudgetCents: 1000, postedBy: "u", postedAtMs: 1, secret: SECRET });
+        const bids = [submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v", priceCents: 50, estimatedLatencyMs: 10, confidence: 0.9, submittedAtMs: 2, secret: SECRET })];
+        const r = pickWinner({ task: t, bids, secret: SECRET });
+        expect(r.effectivePriceCents).toBe(50);
+    });
+    it("no bids → winnerVendor=null", () => {
+        const t = postTask({ intent: "x", acceptanceCriteria: [], maxBudgetCents: 100, postedBy: "u", postedAtMs: 1, secret: SECRET });
+        const r = pickWinner({ task: t, bids: [], secret: SECRET });
+        expect(r.winnerVendor).toBeNull();
+        expect(r.validBidCount).toBe(0);
+    });
+    it("bond = effectivePriceCents (winner must post collateral)", () => {
+        const t = postTask({ intent: "x", acceptanceCriteria: [], maxBudgetCents: 1000, postedBy: "u", postedAtMs: 1, secret: SECRET });
+        const bids = [
+            submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v1", priceCents: 100, estimatedLatencyMs: 10, confidence: 0.9, submittedAtMs: 2, secret: SECRET }),
+            submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v2", priceCents: 200, estimatedLatencyMs: 10, confidence: 0.9, submittedAtMs: 2, secret: SECRET }),
+        ];
+        const r = pickWinner({ task: t, bids, secret: SECRET });
+        expect(r.bondCents).toBe(r.effectivePriceCents);
+    });
+    it("forged bids dropped silently", () => {
+        const t = postTask({ intent: "x", acceptanceCriteria: [], maxBudgetCents: 1000, postedBy: "u", postedAtMs: 1, secret: SECRET });
+        const real = submitBid({ task: t, vendor: "v1", priceCents: 100, estimatedLatencyMs: 10, confidence: 0.9, submittedAtMs: 2, secret: SECRET });
+        const forged = { ...real, vendor: "evil" };
+        const r = pickWinner({ task: t, bids: [real, forged], secret: SECRET });
+        expect(r.validBidCount).toBe(1);
+    });
+});
+describe("v2.19.34 OUTCOME MARKET -- reputation Bayesian half-life", () => {
+    it("freshReputation has prior alpha=1 beta=1 → mean 0.5", () => {
+        const r = freshReputation("v", SECRET);
+        expect(bayesianMean(r.alpha, r.beta)).toBe(0.5);
+    });
+    it("success increments alpha; failure increments beta", () => {
+        let r = freshReputation("v", SECRET);
+        for (let i = 0; i < 5; i++) {
+            const outcome = {
+                v: 1, taskId: `t${i}`, vendor: "v", success: true, latencyActualMs: 100,
+                costActualCents: 50, caughtLying: false, scoredAtMs: i, sig: "x".repeat(64),
+            };
+            r = updateReputation({ reputation: r, outcome, nowMs: i, secret: SECRET });
+        }
+        expect(r.alpha).toBeGreaterThan(r.beta);
+        expect(bayesianMean(r.alpha, r.beta)).toBeGreaterThan(0.5);
+    });
+    it("HALF-LIFE: 90 days later, alpha/beta decay 50% toward prior", () => {
+        let r = freshReputation("v", SECRET);
+        const start = 1_000_000_000_000;
+        for (let i = 0; i < 10; i++) {
+            const outcome = {
+                v: 1, taskId: `t${i}`, vendor: "v", success: true, latencyActualMs: 100,
+                costActualCents: 50, caughtLying: false, scoredAtMs: start, sig: "x".repeat(64),
+            };
+            r = updateReputation({ reputation: r, outcome, nowMs: start, secret: SECRET });
+        }
+        const before = r.alpha;
+        // Update 90 days later
+        const noopOutcome = {
+            v: 1, taskId: "t", vendor: "v", success: true, latencyActualMs: 0,
+            costActualCents: 0, caughtLying: false, scoredAtMs: start + 90 * 86400 * 1000, sig: "x".repeat(64),
+        };
+        r = updateReputation({ reputation: r, outcome: noopOutcome, nowMs: start + 90 * 86400 * 1000, secret: SECRET });
+        // alpha should be ~ (before - 1) * 0.5 + 1 + 1 (the +1 for success)
+        const expected = (before - 1) * 0.5 + 1 + 1;
+        expect(Math.abs(r.alpha - expected)).toBeLessThan(0.01);
+    });
+    it("caughtLying adds LIAR_PENALTY (=50) strikes", () => {
+        let r = freshReputation("v", SECRET);
+        const out = {
+            v: 1, taskId: "t", vendor: "v", success: false, latencyActualMs: 0,
+            costActualCents: 0, caughtLying: true, scoredAtMs: 0, sig: "x".repeat(64),
+        };
+        r = updateReputation({ reputation: r, outcome: out, nowMs: 0, secret: SECRET });
+        expect(r.liarStrikes).toBe(OUTCOME_MARKET_TUNABLES.LIAR_PENALTY);
+        expect(reputationScore(r)).toBeLessThan(0.5);
+    });
+});
+describe("v2.19.34 OUTCOME MARKET -- trick test injection", () => {
+    it("shouldInjectTrick fires on every Nth task (N=TRICK_TEST_INTERVAL)", () => {
+        expect(shouldInjectTrick(0)).toBe(false);
+        expect(shouldInjectTrick(1)).toBe(false);
+        expect(shouldInjectTrick(OUTCOME_MARKET_TUNABLES.TRICK_TEST_INTERVAL)).toBe(true);
+        expect(shouldInjectTrick(OUTCOME_MARKET_TUNABLES.TRICK_TEST_INTERVAL * 2)).toBe(true);
+    });
+    it("injectTrickTest appends a deterministic trick on N-th task", () => {
+        const r = injectTrickTest(["normal criterion"], OUTCOME_MARKET_TUNABLES.TRICK_TEST_INTERVAL);
+        expect(r.criteria.length).toBe(2);
+        expect(r.trickAtIndex).toBe(1);
+        expect(r.trickText).toBeTruthy();
+    });
+    it("injectTrickTest no-op on non-Nth", () => {
+        const r = injectTrickTest(["x"], 1);
+        expect(r.criteria.length).toBe(1);
+        expect(r.trickAtIndex).toBe(-1);
+    });
+    it("DETERMINISTIC: same ordinal → same trick", () => {
+        const a = injectTrickTest(["x"], OUTCOME_MARKET_TUNABLES.TRICK_TEST_INTERVAL);
+        const b = injectTrickTest(["x"], OUTCOME_MARKET_TUNABLES.TRICK_TEST_INTERVAL);
+        expect(a.trickText).toBe(b.trickText);
+    });
+});
+describe("v2.19.34 OUTCOME MARKET -- federated leaderboard", () => {
+    it("sorts by reputationScore desc, then taskCount desc, then alpha", () => {
+        const reps = [
+            { ...freshReputation("zoro", SECRET), alpha: 9, beta: 1, totalTasksWon: 10 },
+            { ...freshReputation("ace", SECRET), alpha: 5, beta: 5, totalTasksWon: 20 },
+            { ...freshReputation("bob", SECRET), alpha: 5, beta: 5, totalTasksWon: 10 },
+        ];
+        const board = federatedLeaderboard({ reputations: reps, nowMs: 0 });
+        expect(board[0].vendor).toBe("zoro"); // highest mean
+        expect(board[1].vendor).toBe("ace"); // same mean as bob but more tasks
+        expect(board[2].vendor).toBe("bob");
+    });
+    it("limit honored", () => {
+        const reps = Array.from({ length: 10 }, (_, i) => freshReputation(`v${i}`, SECRET));
+        const b = federatedLeaderboard({ reputations: reps, limit: 3 });
+        expect(b.length).toBe(3);
+    });
+});
+describe("v2.19.34 OUTCOME MARKET -- 25,000 FUZZ ITERATIONS", () => {
+    it("25,000 random tasks + bids + outcomes never crash + integrity preserved", () => {
+        const N = 25_000;
+        const reps = new Map();
+        let totalTasks = 0, totalBids = 0, totalOutcomes = 0;
+        for (let i = 0; i < N; i++) {
+            const t = postTask({
+                intent: `task ${i}`, acceptanceCriteria: ["x"],
+                maxBudgetCents: 100 + (i % 1000), postedBy: `u${i % 100}`,
+                postedAtMs: i, bidWindowMs: 10_000, secret: SECRET,
+            });
+            totalTasks++;
+            const bids = [];
+            const bidderCount = 1 + (i % 5);
+            for (let j = 0; j < bidderCount; j++) {
+                const vendor = `v${(i + j) % 20}`;
+                if (!reps.has(vendor))
+                    reps.set(vendor, freshReputation(vendor, SECRET));
+                const b = submitBid({
+                    task: t, vendor,
+                    priceCents: 1 + ((i + j) % t.maxBudgetCents),
+                    estimatedLatencyMs: 10 + ((i + j) % 1000),
+                    confidence: ((i + j) % 100) / 100,
+                    submittedAtMs: i + j,
+                    secret: SECRET,
+                });
+                if (b) {
+                    bids.push(b);
+                    totalBids++;
+                }
+            }
+            const winner = pickWinner({ task: t, bids, reputations: Array.from(reps.values()), secret: SECRET });
+            if (winner.winnerVendor) {
+                const outcome = scoreOutcome({
+                    task: t, result: winner,
+                    success: i % 7 !== 0, // ~85% success rate
+                    latencyActualMs: 50,
+                    costActualCents: winner.effectivePriceCents,
+                    caughtLying: i % 100 === 0,
+                    scoredAtMs: i + 100,
+                    secret: SECRET,
+                });
+                totalOutcomes++;
+                const r = reps.get(winner.winnerVendor);
+                reps.set(winner.winnerVendor, updateReputation({ reputation: r, outcome, nowMs: i + 100, secret: SECRET }));
+            }
+        }
+        expect(totalTasks).toBe(N);
+        expect(totalBids).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+        expect(totalOutcomes).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+        const board = federatedLeaderboard({ reputations: Array.from(reps.values()) });
+        expect(board.length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    }, 60_000);
+    it("computeMarketStats counts correctly across 1000 ops", () => {
+        const tasks = [];
+        const bids = [];
+        const outcomes = [];
+        const reps = [];
+        for (let i = 0; i < 1000; i++) {
+            const t = postTask({ intent: "x", acceptanceCriteria: [], maxBudgetCents: 100, postedBy: "u", postedAtMs: i, secret: SECRET });
+            tasks.push(t);
+        }
+        const s = computeMarketStats({ tasks, bids, outcomes, reputations: reps });
+        expect(s.totalTasks).toBe(1000);
+        expect(formatMarketLine(s)).toContain("MARKET");
+    });
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=outcome_market.test.js.map

package/dist/outcome_market/outcome_market.test.js.map

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