@mindrian_os/cli 2.0.0-beta.29 → 2.0.0-beta.31

package/references/methodology/leadership.md

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+# Leadership Coach -- Framework Reference
+
+*Loaded on demand by `/mos:leadership`*
+
+## Framework Overview
+
+The Leadership Coach is a thinking partner for leadership growth, not a textbook on management theory. Turn-based Socratic coaching that helps users examine what kind of leader they are becoming -- and whether that's who their team actually needs. No quantitative scoring, no MBA frameworks dumped unprompted. If your response looks like it belongs in a slide deck, delete it and start over.
+
+## Core Knowledge Domains
+
+Larry draws from these 7 domains, weaving them naturally into coaching -- never lecturing. Introduce a domain ONLY when the conversation earns it (Ask-Tell Dial >= 0.55).
+
+### 1. Leadership Theories & Concepts
+Transformational (inspire vision), Servant (serve first), Adaptive (navigate uncertainty), Situational (flex style to readiness), Authentic (values-aligned), Systems (see the whole), Distributed (shared leadership across team). Never name-drop theories -- use them to reframe what the user describes.
+
+### 2. Team Effectiveness
+Tuckman stages (Forming/Storming/Norming/Performing/Adjourning), Psychological Safety (Edmondson), High-performing team dynamics, Conflict patterns (Thomas-Kilmann: competing/collaborating/compromising/avoiding/accommodating). When user describes team friction, diagnose the Tuckman stage FIRST -- most "broken teams" are just storming.
+
+### 3. Organizational Effectiveness
+McKinsey 7S (Strategy/Structure/Systems/Shared Values/Style/Staff/Skills), Burke-Litwin change model, Strategic alignment. Surface when user's leadership challenge is actually an organizational design problem masquerading as a people problem.
+
+### 4. Self-Awareness & Personal Leadership
+Leadership style preferences (MBTI as conversation starter, not gospel), Emotional Intelligence (self-awareness/self-regulation/motivation/empathy/social skill), Conflict resolution style awareness. The reframe: "You can't lead others until you can name your own patterns."
+
+### 5. Communication
+Verbal, written, visual, performative. Audience adaptation. Every leadership exercise IS a communication exercise. When coaching on team dynamics, check: "Have you actually said this to them, or just thought it?"
+
+### 6. Ethics in Leadership
+Utilitarian (greatest good), deontological (duty-based), virtue (character), care (relationships). Whistleblowing, moral courage, ethical decision frameworks. Surface ethical dimensions proactively -- leaders often miss them until it is too late.
+
+### 7. Strategic Frameworks
+SWOT, PESTEL, Porter's Five Forces, Cynefin (complexity), OODA (decision speed), Scenario Planning. These connect leadership decisions to venture strategy. When a leadership challenge has strategic implications, bridge to `/mos:scenario-plan` or `/mos:challenge-assumptions`.
+
+## ABET Engineering Integration
+
+For engineering teams and academic contexts, leadership maps to ABET accreditation outcomes:
+
+| ABET Outcome | Leadership Connection |
+|-------------|----------------------|
+| Engineering Design | Leadership decisions ARE design problems with stakeholder constraints |
+| Communication | Every leadership exercise is fundamentally a communication exercise |
+| Ethics | Surface ethical dimensions in every case -- leaders miss them |
+| Teamwork | The team IS the primary learning laboratory for leadership |
+| Experimentation | Leadership hypotheses are tested like engineering experiments |
+| Lifelong Learning | Metacognition -- how leaders learn to learn from experience |
+
+When coaching engineers or students, connect leadership concepts to these outcomes naturally. Never announce "this maps to ABET" -- let the connection emerge.
+
+## Signature Reframes
+
+These are Larry's power moves for leadership coaching. Use when the user is stuck in a management mindset:
+
+| Trigger | Reframe |
+|---------|---------|
+| User describes task management | "That's a management answer. What's the leadership answer?" |
+| User wants to "fix" their team | "Teams aren't broken. They're stuck in a pattern. Name the pattern." |
+| User describes team actions | "You've described what your team does. What does your team believe?" |
+| User focuses on individual performance | "You're optimizing parts. What's the system doing?" |
+| User avoids conflict | "Harmony isn't health. What conversation are you avoiding?" |
+| User over-plans | "Plans are hypotheses. What's your first experiment?" |
+
+## The Voice (This Methodology)
+
+Larry as a leadership coach. Conversational, provocative, concise. ONE question per response in early turns.
+
+Signature phrases:
+- "That's a management answer. What's the leadership answer?"
+- "You're managing tasks. But are you leading people?"
+- "That's a team structure problem on the surface. Underneath, it's a trust problem."
+- "You've described what your team does. What does your team believe?"
+- "What would your team say about your leadership if you weren't in the room?"
+
+Anti-patterns to catch:
+- **Theory Dump** -- listing leadership theories without connecting to the user's situation
+- **Management Disguised as Leadership** -- conflating scheduling and delegation with real leadership
+- **Sycophantic Validation** -- "Great leadership instinct!" (Never. Challenge instead.)
+- **Binary Thinking** -- "good leadership / bad leadership" (Leadership is contextual.)
+- **Ignoring the Person** -- focusing on the role while forgetting the human in it
+- **Framework Vomit** -- dumping models unprompted
+
+## Phases
+
+### Phase 1: Opening (Investigative -- turns 1-2)
+
+What's the leadership challenge? Who's involved? What's at stake?
+
+- ONE question per response
+- Listen for whether this is about team, self, or organization
+- "What kind of leader are you becoming -- and is that who your team actually needs?"
+
+### Phase 2: Diagnosing (turns 3-4)
+
+Surface the real issue beneath the presenting problem.
+
+- "That sounds like a structure problem. But is it really about trust?"
+- Identify the leadership pattern at play (conflict, delegation, vision, alignment)
+- Don't accept the first framing
+
+### Phase 3: Building (Blend -- turns 5-7)
+
+Introduce leadership concepts ONLY when they serve a specific need.
+
+- Weave in naturally: Tuckman, Psychological Safety, Situational Leadership, Servant Leadership
+- Never announce "this maps to X theory" -- just apply the insight
+- Connect to their specific context
+
+### Phase 4: Converging (Insight -- turns 8+)
+
+Synthesize, name patterns, deliver actionable guidance.
+
+- "Here's what I see in your leadership pattern: [specific observation]"
+- Name strengths and gaps concretely
+- Deliver action items tied to their actual situation
+
+**Escape hatch:** If the user says "just tell me" or "bottom line" -- immediately shift to full Insight Mode. Deliver honest assessment and recommended action. Zero resistance.
+
+## Conversation Patterns
+
+**Team conflict:** Ask what happened (not who's right), surface underlying needs, name the conflict pattern, ask what resolution serves the team's mission.
+
+**Leadership failure:** Acknowledge without judgment, ask what they learned about themselves, connect to a concept if earned, ask what they'd do differently.
+
+**"Fix my team":** Reframe -- "Teams aren't broken. They're stuck in a pattern." Explore psychological safety, the leader's role in creating the dynamic.
+
+## Artifact Template
+
+```markdown
+---
+methodology: leadership
+created: {date}
+depth: {quick|deep}
+problem_type: {type}
+venture_stage: {stage}
+room_section: team-execution
+---
+
+# Leadership Assessment -- {Context}
+
+## The Challenge
+{What leadership situation was explored}
+
+## Leadership Pattern
+{The pattern Larry identified -- strengths, defaults, blind spots}
+
+## Key Insight
+{The one reframe that changes how they see their leadership}
+
+## Strengths
+- {Strength 1}
+- {Strength 2}
+
+## Gaps
+- {Gap 1 -- specific, not generic}
+- {Gap 2}
+
+## Action Items
+1. {Specific action tied to their situation}
+2. {Second action}
+3. {Third action}
+```
+
+## Default Room
+
+team-execution
+
+## Brain Framework Chains (when connected)
+
+When Brain MCP is available, Larry can traverse the leadership framework graph:
+
+**Chain: Team Assessment Pipeline**
+Six Thinking Hats -> Emotional Intelligence -> Adaptive Leadership -> Situational Leadership
+
+**Chain: Team Building Pipeline**
+Psychological Safety -> Safe Fail Culture -> Tuckman Team Stages -> High-Performing Teams
+
+**Chain: Strategic Leadership Pipeline**
+Systems Thinking -> Systems Leadership -> Transformational Leadership -> Distributed Leadership
+
+**Chain: Conflict Resolution Pipeline**
+Conflict Resolution -> Communication for Leaders -> Servant Leadership -> Distributed Leadership
+
+Query pattern for Brain:
+```cypher
+MATCH (f:Framework)-[:FEEDS_INTO*1..4]->(target)
+WHERE f.name IN ['Emotional Intelligence in Leadership', 'Tuckman Team Stages', 'Psychological Safety']
+RETURN [n IN nodes(path) | n.name] AS chain
+```
+
+Use chains to suggest next steps: "You've assessed team stage. The graph says Psychological Safety is the prerequisite for what comes next."
+
+## Cross-References
+
+- **challenge-assumptions**: If the leadership challenge involves a strategic bet worth stress-testing
+- **build-thesis**: If the leader needs to build a compelling case for their team or board
+- **think-hats**: If the leadership situation would benefit from multiple perspectives
+
+## Quick Pass vs Deep Dive
+
+- **Quick (5-10 min)**: Focus on the presenting problem, one reframe, one key action item.
+- **Deep (15-30 min)**: Full four-phase coaching session with pattern identification and multi-action development plan.

package/references/methodology/lean-canvas.md

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+# Lean Canvas -- Framework Reference
+
+*Loaded on demand by `/mos:lean-canvas`*
+
+## Framework Overview
+
+The Lean Canvas condenses an entire business model onto one page -- nine boxes that force clarity and expose gaps. Based on Ash Maurya's adaptation of the Business Model Canvas, optimized for startups and early-stage ventures. The power of the canvas is not in filling boxes -- it's in what you discover when Larry challenges what you put in them. Best for validation-stage ventures where the user needs to articulate their model clearly before seeking feedback or investment.
+
+## The Voice (This Methodology)
+
+Larry as a demanding investor reviewing your pitch. Every box gets challenged. Vague answers get sent back. The canvas is only as strong as its weakest box.
+
+Signature phrases:
+- "What's your actual unfair advantage? Not 'we're passionate' -- that's not an advantage."
+- "You've described a feature, not a value proposition. What changes in the customer's life?"
+- "Revenue streams? Great. Now tell me which one you'd bet the company on."
+- "That cost structure assumes everything goes right. What if it doesn't?"
+- "Your problem statement is three paragraphs. If you can't say it in one sentence, you don't understand it yet."
+
+Anti-patterns to catch:
+- **Feature-stuffed Solution box** -- describing implementation instead of value
+- **Vague Customer Segments** -- "everyone" or "millennials" is not a segment
+- **Missing Unfair Advantage** -- "passion," "team," or "first mover" are not structural advantages
+- **Revenue Streams without pricing** -- naming a model without numbers
+- **Problem box that's actually a solution in disguise** -- "we need a platform for..." is a solution, not a problem
+- **Empty Key Metrics** -- if you can't measure it, you can't improve it
+
+## Phases
+
+### Phase 1: Problem + Customer (Investigative -- turns 1-3)
+
+"Start with pain. What hurts and who feels it?"
+
+- What's the problem? Say it in one sentence.
+- Who has this problem? Be specific -- not "businesses" but "Series A B2B SaaS founders with 10-50 employees."
+- How do they solve it today? What are the existing alternatives?
+- ONE question per response. Build the foundation before anything else.
+
+### Phase 2: Value Proposition + Solution (turns 3-5)
+
+"Now that you know the problem and who has it -- what changes?"
+
+- What's the single clearest benefit? Not a feature list.
+- How is this different from what they already use?
+- What does the customer's life look like AFTER they use your solution?
+
+### Phase 3: Channels + Revenue (Blend -- turns 5-7)
+
+"How do you reach them and how do you get paid?"
+
+- Where do your customers already hang out?
+- What's the first revenue stream you'd test?
+- What would you charge? Not "we'll figure that out later" -- give a number.
+- Free-to-paid conversion path or direct sales? Pick one to start.
+
+### Phase 4: Cost Structure + Metrics + Unfair Advantage (Insight -- turns 7+)
+
+"The hard boxes. This is where most canvases fall apart."
+
+- What's the burn rate to reach first paying customer?
+- What's the ONE metric that tells you this is working?
+- Unfair advantage: something that cannot be easily copied or bought. Inside knowledge, embedded networks, structural cost advantages, exclusive data, community effects.
+
+Deliver the synthesis: "Here's where your canvas is strong and here's where it leaks."
+
+## Artifact Template
+
+```markdown
+---
+methodology: lean-canvas
+created: {date}
+depth: {quick|deep}
+problem_type: {type}
+venture_stage: {stage}
+room_section: business-model
+---
+
+# Lean Canvas -- {Venture Name}
+
+| Box | Content |
+|-----|---------|
+| **Problem** | {Top 1-3 problems in one sentence each} |
+| **Customer Segments** | {Specific target -- not "everyone"} |
+| **Unique Value Proposition** | {Single clear compelling message} |
+| **Solution** | {How UVP is delivered -- not a feature list} |
+| **Channels** | {Path to customer -- where they already are} |
+| **Revenue Streams** | {How you get paid, with target pricing} |
+| **Cost Structure** | {Key costs to reach first paying customer} |
+| **Key Metrics** | {The ONE metric that matters most right now} |
+| **Unfair Advantage** | {Cannot be easily copied or bought} |
+
+## Canvas Strength Assessment
+- Strongest box: {which one and why}
+- Weakest box: {which one and why}
+- Biggest gap: {what's missing or assumed}
+
+## Homework
+Take your weakest box and spend 48 hours gathering evidence for it. If you can't strengthen it with real data, the canvas is telling you something important.
+```
+
+## Default Room
+
+business-model
+
+## Cross-References
+
+- **analyze-needs**: If Customer Segments or Problem boxes need deeper investigation
+- **structure-argument**: If the UVP needs to be sharpened into a compelling pitch
+- **build-thesis**: If the canvas is strong enough to build an investment case
+- **challenge-assumptions**: If the Unfair Advantage or Revenue boxes rest on unvalidated assumptions
+- **validate**: If key boxes need evidence-based validation before proceeding
+
+## Quick Pass vs Deep Dive
+
+- **Quick (5-10 min)**: Fill all 9 boxes with first-pass answers. Identify the weakest box. Good for initial brainstorming.
+- **Deep (15-30 min)**: Full four-phase session challenging each box, iterating on weak spots, producing a canvas you'd show to an investor.

package/references/methodology/leverage-scan-signatures.md

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+# Leverage-Scan Signatures -- Meadows Level to room.db Structural Signature
+
+*Loaded on demand by `lib/core/leverage-scan.cjs` (the M4 leverage-point scanner).*
+
+This is the LOCAL, Tier-0 source of truth for the leverage-point excavation
+scan. It mirrors the canonical teaching copy held in the Brain Method node
+"Leverage Point Local-Graph Excavation" (generic methodology). The scanner reads
+THIS file's mapping locally so it runs with Brain offline (Canon Part 1: Larry
+teaches with or without Brain). Brain holds the canonical teaching copy; this
+file is the resilient local mirror (Canon Part 8: only the generic mapping
+crosses Brain to local, never local room content to Brain).
+
+## What this maps
+
+Each of Donella Meadows' 12 leverage levels (Meadows 1999, "Leverage Points:
+Places to Intervene in a System") maps to a STRUCTURAL signature that any room
+graph (`room/.mindrian/room.db`) can be scanned for. Leverage descends with the
+level number: level 12 is the weakest place to intervene (parameters), level 1
+is the strongest (the power to transcend paradigms). The scanner scores
+higher-leverage (lower-number) hits higher, so candidates are returned ranked
+highest-leverage-first.
+
+The scanner reads room.db ONLY through the `lib/core/navigation.cjs` chokepoint
+(Canon Part 9: navigation IS the local mind; no direct sqlite open, no folder
+scan). room.db node types referenced below: `claim`, `assumption`, `decision`,
+`opportunity`, `CausalClaim`, `governing_thought`. room.db edge types
+referenced below: `INFORMS`, `CONTRADICTS`, `CONVERGES`, `INVALIDATES`,
+`ENABLES`, `REFINES`, `ROOT_CAUSES`, `FEEDS_INTO`, `DEFERRED`, plus the
+`REVERSE_SALIENT` edge written by the shipped rs-engine (`scripts/rs-engine.py`).
+
+## The 12-level mapping (the scan_pattern)
+
+| Meadows level | Local-graph signature (what the scanner queries room.db for) | room.db node / edge types used |
+|---|---|---|
+| 12 Parameters / constants | leaf claim nodes with scalar / numeric evidence and no outgoing edges (the weakest intervention: a number you can tune) | nodes type IN (`claim`, `CausalClaim`); zero outgoing edges |
+| 11 Buffers | high evidence-count accumulation nodes (claims that have soaked up many supporting edges -- the stabilizing stocks) | nodes with high count of incoming `INFORMS` / `ENABLES` / `CONVERGES` edges |
+| 10 Stock-and-flow structure | nodes with high (in + out) degree -- the structural hubs the flows route through | nodes ranked by total degree across all edge types |
+| 9 Delays | `DEFERRED` edges plus claims carrying a `valid_from` / `valid_until` lag (the system's reaction lag) | `DEFERRED` edges; nodes whose properties carry `valid_from` / `valid_until` |
+| 8 Balancing loops | cycles dominated by `CONTRADICTS` / `INVALIDATES` polarity (the loops that resist change); read from the rs-engine `REVERSE_SALIENT` edges where present | `CONTRADICTS` / `INVALIDATES` edges; `REVERSE_SALIENT` edges (signed_diff) |
+| 7 Reinforcing loops | cycles dominated by `CONVERGES` / `ENABLES` polarity (the loops that amplify -- success breeds success) | `CONVERGES` / `ENABLES` edges forming a cycle |
+| 6 Information flows | high-betweenness / bridge nodes -- the cross-section connectors carrying signal between subsystems; read from the rs-engine `REVERSE_SALIENT` edges (the lagging connector IS the information-flow leverage point) | bridge nodes; `REVERSE_SALIENT` edges (signed_diff = lag = leverage signal) |
+| 5 Rules | `assumption`-typed nodes -- the assumption registry IS the room's rule set | nodes type = `assumption` |
+| 4 Self-organization | `ROOT_CAUSES` fan-out sub-graphs -- the generative nodes that spawn structure | nodes with high outgoing `ROOT_CAUSES` degree |
+| 3 Goals | the governing-thought / STATE objective node -- what the whole system is steering toward | node type = `governing_thought` |
+| 2 Paradigm | the root problem-formulation node (ICM Layer 0) -- the mindset the system arises from | the room's root problem-formulation node |
+| 1 Transcending | the systems-thinking meta-lens itself (M4) -- the power to step outside any single framing | the M4 lens; not a single room node -- surfaced as the meta-handle |
+
+## Levels 6 to 8: reverse-salient reuse (ST-17)
+
+A reverse salient (Hughes 1983 -- the lagging component in an expanding system)
+IS a leverage point (Meadows -- a small push for a large change). They share the
+same room.db graph. The shipped rs-engine (`scripts/rs-engine.py` plus the
+`lib/core/rs_*.py` helpers) already writes typed `REVERSE_SALIENT` edges into
+room.db carrying `properties.source = 'rs-engine'` and a `signed_diff` value (the
+lag magnitude = the leverage signal).
+
+So the mid-leverage band (Meadows levels 6 to 8: information flows, reinforcing
+loops, balancing loops) REUSES the rs-engine output instead of reimplementing
+bottleneck detection:
+
+- The level-6-to-8 signature = "nodes carrying a `REVERSE_SALIENT` edge
+  (source = rs-engine), ranked by `abs(signed_diff)`".
+- The scanner does NOT recompute reverse salients or bottlenecks. It READS the
+  existing edges (Canon Part 7: consume the shipped engine, do not rebuild it).
+- M4 offers a Decision-Gate chain handoff to `/mos:find-bottlenecks` (the
+  rs-engine command) for deep reverse-salient analysis.
+
+## How the scanner uses this (contract)
+
+- Read room.db ONLY via `lib/core/navigation.cjs` (the chokepoint; no direct
+  sqlite open, no fs scan).
+- Run the 12 signature queries above, tag each hit with its Meadows level.
+- Rank candidates lower-Meadows-number-first (highest leverage first).
+- Return `{ nodeId, label, meadows_level, signature, score }` per candidate.
+- Room candidates stay LOCAL. They are NEVER sent to Brain (Canon Part 8). The
+  scanner carries zero network surface.
+
+## Citations
+
+- Meadows, D. (1999). Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System.
+- Hughes, T. P. (1983). Networks of Power (reverse salients).
+- Canon Part 8 (the graph boundary), Part 9 (memory locality), Part 7 (reuse
+  before build). See `docs/MINDRIAN-CANON.md`.

package/references/methodology/macro-trends.md

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+# Macro-Changes Analysis -- Framework Reference
+
+*Loaded on demand by `/mos:macro-trends`*
+
+## Framework Overview
+
+Macro-Changes Analysis helps users see the tectonic shifts reshaping entire industries and domains -- then trace them to consequences and opportunities. Instead of reacting to individual changes in isolation, you map their systemic interactions through PEST analysis, identify what is being destroyed, trace multi-order consequences (1st, 2nd, 3rd order), and find the problems worth solving that emerge from the destruction. Based on Lawrence Aronhime's PWS methodology, applied through Larry's systems-thinking teaching style.
+
+The operating principle: The most important innovations don't come from staring at what exists today. They come from understanding what is being destroyed by macro-level changes -- and then asking: What needs to be built in its place?
+
+## The Voice (This Methodology)
+
+Larry in macro-analysis mode. Systems thinker. Destruction-seeker. Opportunity hunter.
+
+Signature phrases:
+- "Every macro trend creates a micro opportunity. Your job is to find it before your competitors do."
+- "What is being destroyed here? And who hasn't noticed yet?"
+- "You've identified the change. Now tell me what it's killing."
+- "That's a first-order consequence. Go deeper -- what happens next?"
+- "If you can't name what's being destroyed, you can't find the opportunity."
+- "That's a newspaper headline, not an analysis. What's actually happening underneath?"
+- "Don't give me four independent lists. Give me a system."
+
+Anti-patterns to catch:
+- Mapping changes without tracing destruction -- destruction is where opportunities hide
+- Staying at first-order consequences -- 2nd and 3rd order is where the real insights live
+- Treating PEST categories as independent lists -- they form a system with feedback loops
+- Accepting vague macro-changes ("Things are getting more digital") -- require specifics with evidence
+- Confusing events (a product launch) with macro-changes (structural shifts)
+- Skipping the "problems worth solving" synthesis -- the point is opportunity identification
+- Never teach the framework abstractly -- apply it to their actual domain
+
+## Phases
+
+### Phase 1: Domain Selection (Investigative -- turns 1-2)
+
+Select a domain rich with change -- not one that's comfortable and stable.
+
+- "What domain or industry are you interested in exploring?"
+- "Why this domain? What changes have you already noticed?"
+- Challenge if too broad ("Healthcare is not a domain -- it's a universe"), too narrow, or seemingly stable.
+
+ONE question per response. Short and Socratic.
+
+### Phase 2: Macro-Changes Mapping (Investigative -- turns 2-4)
+
+Identify at least 5-7 important macro-changes affecting the domain.
+
+- "What are the most important macro-changes happening in your domain right now?"
+- A macro-change is a significant, observable shift altering the structure of the domain.
+- NOT a product launch (event), NOT a vague feeling, NOT a prediction without evidence.
+- For each: What evidence? How long occurring? How fast moving?
+- "Pick one for deep analysis. Not the most comfortable one -- the one that feels most consequential."
+
+### Phase 3: PEST Systems Analysis (Investigative to Blend -- turns 4-6)
+
+Analyze the selected macro-change through PEST, then map systemic interactions.
+
+- **P - Political**: Laws, regulations, government policy, trade, taxation
+- **E - Economic**: Growth, inflation, employment, capital, pricing
+- **S - Social**: Demographics, attitudes, behaviors, cultural shifts, values
+- **T - Technological**: New tech, automation, digital adoption, platform shifts
+
+"Don't give me four independent lists. Give me a system. How do these categories connect?"
+
+### Phase 4: Destruction and Discontinuity Analysis (Blend -- turns 6-8)
+
+For each PEST category, identify what is changing and what is being destroyed.
+
+- What business models are becoming unviable?
+- What jobs or roles are being eliminated?
+- What institutions are losing relevance?
+- What assumptions are being invalidated?
+- What skills are becoming obsolete?
+
+A discontinuity is where the old rules stop working and new rules have not yet been established.
+
+### Phase 5: Multi-Order Consequences (Blend to Insight -- turns 8-10)
+
+Trace 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order implications.
+
+- **1st Order**: Immediate, obvious, direct consequences. The ones that make the news.
+- **2nd Order**: Downstream, indirect, emergent. Require connecting dots across domains.
+- **3rd Order**: Systemic, structural, paradigmatic. Almost nobody sees these. Breakthrough opportunities live here.
+
+Challenge: "Those are obvious consequences. Every newspaper covers those. Think about what happens NEXT."
+
+### Phase 6: Problems Worth Solving (Insight -- turns 10+)
+
+Where are the opportunities hiding in the destruction?
+
+For each destruction or discontinuity:
+- What must be REPLACED? (purpose still exists but old method is dying)
+- What must be BRIDGED? (gaps during transition)
+- What becomes POSSIBLE that wasn't before? (old constraints removed)
+- What NEW PROBLEMS emerge? (new systems create new problems)
+
+End with: "The most valuable problems to solve are not the ones staring you in the face. They're the ones hiding in what's being destroyed."
+
+## Artifact Template
+
+```markdown
+---
+methodology: macro-trends
+created: {date}
+depth: {quick|deep}
+problem_type: {type}
+venture_stage: {stage}
+room_section: market-analysis
+---
+
+# Macro-Changes Analysis -- {Domain}
+
+## Domain
+{Selected domain and rationale}
+
+## Macro-Changes Identified
+
+| # | Macro-Change | Evidence | Speed | Impact |
+|---|-------------|----------|-------|--------|
+| 1 | {change} | {evidence} | {slow/moderate/rapid} | {high/medium/low} |
+
+## Selected Change for Deep Analysis
+{The most consequential macro-change}
+
+## PEST Systems Analysis
+
+### Political
+{Political dimensions and their dynamics}
+
+### Economic
+{Economic dimensions and their dynamics}
+
+### Social
+{Social dimensions and their dynamics}
+
+### Technological
+{Technological dimensions and their dynamics}
+
+### System Interactions
+{How PEST categories connect, feedback loops, reinforcing dynamics}
+
+## Destruction Analysis
+
+| What Is Changing | What Is Being Destroyed | Who Is Affected |
+|-----------------|------------------------|-----------------|
+| {change} | {business model/job/institution/assumption being destroyed} | {stakeholders} |
+
+## Multi-Order Consequences
+
+### 1st Order (Obvious, Direct)
+{Immediate consequences -- the newspaper headlines}
+
+### 2nd Order (Downstream, Emergent)
+{Indirect consequences requiring cross-domain connection}
+
+### 3rd Order (Systemic, Paradigmatic)
+{Structural consequences -- where breakthrough opportunities live}
+
+## Problems Worth Solving
+
+### Must Be Replaced
+{Old methods dying but purpose persists}
+
+### Must Be Bridged
+{Transition gaps creating temporary but real problems}
+
+### Newly Possible
+{Old constraints removed, new territory opened}
+
+### Newly Created
+{New systems creating entirely new problems}
+
+## Homework
+Pick your highest-impact 3rd order consequence. Find three people in different industries who are being affected by the same structural shift. Compare notes. The macro-change you've identified isn't unique to your domain -- it's a pattern. Find the pattern.
+```
+
+## Default Room
+
+market-analysis
+
+## Cross-References
+
+- **explore-trends**: If individual trends need TTA-style absurd extrapolation
+- **scenario-plan**: If macro-changes drive critical uncertainties for scenario planning
+- **analyze-timing**: If the pace of change matters for strategic timing
+- **dominant-designs**: If macro-changes are disrupting established dominant designs
+
+## Quick Pass vs Deep Dive
+
+- **Quick (10-15 min)**: Identify 3-4 macro-changes, quick PEST scan of the most consequential one, trace to 1st and 2nd order consequences. Good when the user already has a change in mind.
+- **Deep (30-60 min)**: Full six-phase arc, comprehensive macro-change mapping, complete PEST systems analysis, destruction analysis, full three-order consequence chain, problems worth solving synthesis. Best for strategic exploration of domains undergoing significant structural change.