@metaharness/darwin 0.1.0 → 0.2.1

package/README.md

@@ -1,17 +1,26 @@
 # @metaharness/darwin
 
-> Darwin Mode — **the model is frozen; the harness evolves.**
-
-Bounded, empirical, population-based self-improvement of an agent harness
-(ADR-070…075). "Self-improving agents" is widely misread as "the model trains
-itself." Darwin Mode ships the practical version: an agent **modifies its own
-harness**, runs benchmarks in a sandbox, keeps the variants that *measurably*
-improve, and builds an **archive of successful descendants**. The foundation
-model never changes — what evolves is the operating system around it (planner,
-context builder, reviewer, retry/tool/memory/score policy). This follows the
-**Darwin Gödel Machine** lineage: iteratively mutate the source of a coding
-agent, then *empirically validate* each variant — no weight updates, just a
-population, a benchmark, and an archive.
+> **An LLM supercharger and cost optimizer.** Keep your model frozen — evolve the
+> harness around it so a *cheap* model performs like an expensive one, for a fraction
+> of the cost.
+
+Darwin Mode makes the LLM you already use **measurably better and cheaper** by
+evolving the *operating system around it* — planner, context builder, reviewer,
+retry/tool/memory/score policy — instead of paying for a bigger model. It mutates one
+surface at a time, tests each change in a sandbox, and keeps only what *measurably*
+improves, building an archive of successful descendants. No weight updates, no
+fine-tuning — just a population, a benchmark, and an archive.
+
+**Why it pays off (measured, not marketing):**
+- **Cheap beats frontier.** On a 15-model × 6-language execution benchmark, DeepSeek-V3
+  ($0.4/Mtok) tops quality-per-dollar — and the harness, not the model, is the lever (ADR-085).
+- **Real bug-fixing for pennies.** Resolves real **SWE-bench Lite** issues at **~$0.01/instance**
+  with a sub-$1/Mtok model (ADR-142–146) — vs. $1–20/instance for frontier-model agents.
+- **The harness is the multiplier.** Evolving context-window/selection/retry policy lifts a
+  fixed model's measured outcomes (e.g. `finalScore 0.765 → 0.985`, ADR-103) — same model, better results.
+
+This follows the **Darwin Gödel Machine** lineage: iteratively mutate the source of a
+coding agent, then *empirically validate* each variant.
 
 ```
 repo
@@ -38,7 +47,10 @@ npm run build      # tsc
 Then evolve a repo with the CLI (one verb, `evolve`):
 
 ```bash
-metaharness-darwin evolve <repo> [--generations N] [--children N] [--concurrency N] [--seed N]
+metaharness-darwin evolve <repo> [--generations N] [--children N] [--concurrency N] [--seed N] \
+    [--bench <suite.json>] [--tie faster] \
+    [--selection score|quality-diversity|behavioral-diversity|niche-steering|clade|pareto] \
+    [--crossover] [--epistasis] [--risk-budget N] [--fdr Q] [--curriculum] [--sandbox real|mock|agent]
 ```
 
 | Flag | Meaning | Default |
@@ -47,6 +59,17 @@ metaharness-darwin evolve <repo> [--generations N] [--children N] [--concurrency
 | `--children N`    | children produced per parent per generation | `4` |
 | `--concurrency N` | max variants evaluated concurrently (bounded fan-out) | `4` |
 | `--seed N`        | deterministic seed for mutation selection | `0` |
+| `--bench <suite.json>` | route promotion through the statistical benchmark gate (ADR-087) | off |
+| `--tie faster`    | break score ties by efficiency (ADR-086) | `insertion` |
+| `--selection …`   | parent-selection strategy (see *Evolutionary stack*) | `score` |
+| `--crossover`     | recombine two parents' surfaces (ADR-089) | off |
+| `--epistasis`     | topology-aware crossover via learned linkage (ADR-093) | off |
+| `--risk-budget N` | SGM cumulative risk cap on promotions (ADR-090) | off |
+| `--fdr Q`         | Benjamini-Hochberg FDR control on promotion (ADR-096) | off |
+| `--curriculum`    | difficulty-ladder over a graded suite (ADR-097) | off |
+| `--sandbox …`     | evaluation substrate: `real` (repo test) · `mock` (surface params, ADR-102) · `agent` (real surface code, ADR-106) | `real` |
+
+All flags are **opt-in and additive** over a frozen, reproducible core — every default-path run is byte-identical to the ADR-070…075 baseline.
 
 The `<repo>` argument defaults to the current directory. Everything is written
 under a self-describing `.metaharness/` work tree inside the repo:
@@ -200,14 +223,85 @@ The package also re-exports the building blocks behind `evolve`: `profileRepo`,
 `scoreWeights`, `Archive`, `inspectVariant` / `validateGeneratedCode`, plus the
 `SURFACES`, `FILE_BY_SURFACE`, and `APPROVED_FILES` constants.
 
+## Evolutionary stack (ADR-084–105)
+
+The baseline above is the frozen core. On top of it, a set of **opt-in, additive,
+reproducible** mechanisms turn the loop from a single-best search into a real
+evolutionary algorithm. Every one is off by default (so the core stays
+byte-identical) and individually toggled:
+
+| Capability | ADR | How to enable |
+|---|---|---|
+| **Failure-driven mutation** — feed a parent's failing traces into the mutator | 084 | always (the deterministic mutator ignores it) |
+| **LLM mutator** — `OpenRouterMutator` as a `CodeGenerator`, behind the same safety gate; model chosen by a 15-model execution benchmark | 085 | `config.generator` |
+| **Efficiency tie-break** — break score ties by speed | 086 | `--tie faster` |
+| **Graded statistical promotion** — public∧hidden∧regression∧safety + seeded bootstrap CI over a hash-pinned suite | 087 | `--bench s.json` |
+| **MAP-Elites** — keep the elite per behaviour niche | 088 | `--selection quality-diversity` |
+| **Genetic crossover** — recombine two parents' surfaces | 089 | `--crossover` |
+| **SGM risk budget** — bound cumulative self-modification | 090 | `--risk-budget N` |
+| **Hyperbolic phenotyping** — Poincaré-ball behavioural niche from traces | 091 | `--selection behavioral-diversity` |
+| **Active niche steering** — drive toward under-explored regions | 092 | `--selection niche-steering` |
+| **Epistatic linkage** — topology-aware crossover of co-adapted surfaces | 093 | `--crossover --epistasis` |
+| **Clade metaproductivity** — select parents by descendant potential (Huxley-Gödel) | 094 | `--selection clade` |
+| **Benjamini-Hochberg FDR control** — correct promotion for multiple testing | 096 | `--fdr Q` |
+| **Self-directed curriculum** — difficulty ladder over a graded suite | 097 | `--curriculum` |
+| **Multi-objective Pareto** — non-dominated (capability × parsimony) front | 100 | `--selection pareto` |
+
+### The evaluation substrate (ADR-101/102)
+
+By default the sandbox runs the **repo's test command**, which is independent of
+the harness surfaces — so the behavioural manifold is degenerate (measured:
+`nicheEntropy = 0`, ADR-099). `sandboxMode: 'mock'` (ADR-102) instead runs a
+**deterministic surface-driven agent loop**, so a variant's traces depend on its
+surface content and the manifold comes alive. `sandboxMode: 'agent'` (ADR-106)
+runs a variant's **real surface code** in a child process. The real-LLM-on-real-code
+substrate is **no longer deferred** — it shipped (ADR-106→141) and now runs on
+**canonical SWE-bench Lite** (ADR-142+, below).
+
+### Validated results (real, reproducible — see `bench/results/`)
+
+- **Manifold goes live** (ADR-102): real `nicheEntropy 0 → 0.69`, finalScores
+  `flat 0.985 → spread 0.435–0.802` under mock mode.
+- **Self-improvement** (ADR-103): the loop evolves `contextBuilder` (window
+  30 → 70) and climbs `finalScore 0.765 → 0.985` by generation 3.
+- **Diversity beats greedy on deception** (ADR-105): on a deceptive epistatic
+  landscape across 5 seeds, greedy `score` selection crosses it **0/5**,
+  `behavioral-diversity` **5/5**, `clade` **4/5** — empirically justifying the
+  diversity machinery.
+- **Polyglot model frontier** (ADR-085): 15 models × 6 languages, execution-scored;
+  DeepSeek-V3 ($0.4/Mtok) tops quality-per-dollar — cheap beats frontier for code.
+
+### Canonical SWE-bench Lite (real, official harness — ADR-142–146)
+
+Run on the **full 300** SWE-bench Lite (test) instances, scored by the **official
+`swebench` Docker harness** — no cherry-picking, tight CIs. Solver = relevance-ranked
+context + symbol-aware localization + search/replace patch, `deepseek-chat`, ~$0.01/instance.
+
+| config | resolved | Wilson 95% CI | ADR |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| baseline (open-loop, single-shot) | 23/300 = **7.7%** | [5.2, 11.2] | 144 |
+| + LLM localization | 24/300 = **8.0%** | [5.4, 11.6] | 146 |
+| + closed-loop repair (test-feedback) | *measuring (full 300)* | — | 149 |
+
+Honest framing: this is a **cheap-model, single-shot baseline** ($0.4/Mtok, <1¢/instance) —
+leaderboard leaders hit 65–88% on Verified using iterative agentic loops + frontier models at
+$1–20/instance. Localization lifted file-selection recall **44.7% → 59.7%** but resolve-rate held
+flat — the bottleneck relocated to *patch emission* (ADR-146). The repair loop and a hybrid
+cheap→frontier escalation (ADR-148) are the measured next levers. Every number is reproducible
+under `bench/swebench/`.
+
 ## Status
 
-**Prototype.** The default `DeterministicMutator` performs seeded,
-signature-preserving string edits (bounded context-window, retry-budget,
-threshold, and phrasing perturbations) — a **placeholder** for an LLM-backed
-`CodeGenerator` that slots in behind the *same* `validateGeneratedCode` gate. The
-mutator is the only piece meant to be swapped; the safety boundary, scorer, and
-archive are kernel code.
+**Working, empirically validated on both the mock substrate *and* canonical
+SWE-bench Lite.** The `DeterministicMutator` is seeded and signature-preserving;
+the `OpenRouterMutator` (ADR-085) is the production LLM `CodeGenerator`, behind the
+*same* `validateGeneratedCode` gate. The safety boundary, scorer, archive, and bench
+layer are kernel code. The real-LLM-on-real-code frontier (once deferred) is now
+**measured**: a reproducible **7.7% [5.2–11.2%]** open-loop baseline on the full
+SWE-bench Lite (ADR-144), with localization (146), the repair loop (149), and a
+hybrid cheap→frontier escalation (148) as the active levers. Darwin Mode also ships
+**integrated into the `metaharness` scaffolder** — `npx metaharness <name>` produces
+a harness with `npm run evolve` out of the box (ADR-147).
 
 ## License
 

package/dist/archive.d.ts

@@ -51,6 +51,21 @@ export declare class Archive {
      * @param limit Maximum number of parents to return. `<= 0` yields `[]`.
      */
     selectParents(limit: number): HarnessVariant[];
+    /**
+     * MAP-Elites elite selection (quality-diversity). Bin the scored records by a
+     * behaviour descriptor (default: the mutated surface), keep the BEST record per
+     * bin (highest finalScore, ties by earliest insertion), and return up to
+     * `limit` bin-champions ordered by finalScore. Where `selectParents` can return
+     * `limit` near-identical variants (all the same surface — common at the ADR-072
+     * 0.985 ceiling), this returns champions from DISTINCT niches, so the next
+     * generation explores diverse surfaces instead of collapsing onto one.
+     *
+     * Pure and deterministic (no wall-clock) → reproducible from `archive.json`.
+     *
+     * @param limit Maximum number of elites to return. `<= 0` yields `[]`.
+     * @param descriptorOf Behaviour-descriptor function; defaults to mutated surface.
+     */
+    selectElites(limit: number, descriptorOf?: (variant: HarnessVariant) => string): HarnessVariant[];
     /**
      * The path of ids from the root ancestor down to `variantId`, following
      * `parentId` upward then reversing. Returns `[]` if `variantId` is unknown.

package/dist/archive.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"archive.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/archive.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAcA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC;AAE3E;;;;;GAKG;AACH,qBAAa,OAAO;IAQN,OAAO,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAI;IAPjC,2DAA2D;IAC3D,OAAO,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,OAAO,CAAyC;IAEjE;;;OAGG;gBAC0B,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM;IAEzC;;;;OAIG;IACG,IAAI,IAAI,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;IAwB3B;;;;;OAKG;IACH,UAAU,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,cAAc,GAAG,IAAI;IAczC;;;OAGG;IACH,QAAQ,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,SAAS,GAAG,IAAI;IAUnD,8EAA8E;IAC9E,GAAG,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,aAAa,GAAG,SAAS;IAIjD,wCAAwC;IACxC,GAAG,IAAI,aAAa,EAAE;IAItB;;;;OAIG;IACH,IAAI,IAAI,aAAa,GAAG,IAAI;IAW5B;;;;;;;OAOG;IACH,aAAa,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,cAAc,EAAE;IAoB9C;;;;;OAKG;IACH,SAAS,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE;IAkBtC;;;;;OAKG;IACH,cAAc,IAAI;QAChB,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC;YACX,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;YACX,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;YACxB,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;YACnB,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;YACxB,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;YAC1B,QAAQ,EAAE,OAAO,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;SAC1B,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC;YAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;YAAC,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;SAAE,CAAC,CAAC;KAC5C;IA+BD;;;;;OAKG;IACG,IAAI,IAAI,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;CAK5B"}
+{"version":3,"file":"archive.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/archive.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAcA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC;AAE3E;;;;;GAKG;AACH,qBAAa,OAAO;IAQN,OAAO,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAI;IAPjC,2DAA2D;IAC3D,OAAO,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,OAAO,CAAyC;IAEjE;;;OAGG;gBAC0B,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM;IAEzC;;;;OAIG;IACG,IAAI,IAAI,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;IAwB3B;;;;;OAKG;IACH,UAAU,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,cAAc,GAAG,IAAI;IAczC;;;OAGG;IACH,QAAQ,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,SAAS,GAAG,IAAI;IAUnD,8EAA8E;IAC9E,GAAG,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,aAAa,GAAG,SAAS;IAIjD,wCAAwC;IACxC,GAAG,IAAI,aAAa,EAAE;IAItB;;;;OAIG;IACH,IAAI,IAAI,aAAa,GAAG,IAAI;IAW5B;;;;;;;OAOG;IACH,aAAa,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,cAAc,EAAE;IAoB9C;;;;;;;;;;;;;OAaG;IACH,YAAY,CACV,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EACb,YAAY,GAAE,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,cAAc,KAAK,MAAiC,GAC3E,cAAc,EAAE;IA6BnB;;;;;OAKG;IACH,SAAS,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE;IAkBtC;;;;;OAKG;IACH,cAAc,IAAI;QAChB,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC;YACX,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;YACX,QAAQ,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;YACxB,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;YACnB,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;YACxB,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;YAC1B,QAAQ,EAAE,OAAO,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;SAC1B,CAAC,CAAC;QACH,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC;YAAE,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;YAAC,EAAE,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;SAAE,CAAC,CAAC;KAC5C;IA+BD;;;;;OAKG;IACG,IAAI,IAAI,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC;CAK5B"}

package/dist/archive.js

@@ -137,6 +137,47 @@ export class Archive {
         });
         return scored.slice(0, limit).map((s) => s.record.variant);
     }
+    /**
+     * MAP-Elites elite selection (quality-diversity). Bin the scored records by a
+     * behaviour descriptor (default: the mutated surface), keep the BEST record per
+     * bin (highest finalScore, ties by earliest insertion), and return up to
+     * `limit` bin-champions ordered by finalScore. Where `selectParents` can return
+     * `limit` near-identical variants (all the same surface — common at the ADR-072
+     * 0.985 ceiling), this returns champions from DISTINCT niches, so the next
+     * generation explores diverse surfaces instead of collapsing onto one.
+     *
+     * Pure and deterministic (no wall-clock) → reproducible from `archive.json`.
+     *
+     * @param limit Maximum number of elites to return. `<= 0` yields `[]`.
+     * @param descriptorOf Behaviour-descriptor function; defaults to mutated surface.
+     */
+    selectElites(limit, descriptorOf = (v) => v.mutationSurface) {
+        if (limit <= 0)
+            return [];
+        // descriptor → champion, tracking insertion index for deterministic ties.
+        const champions = new Map();
+        let index = 0;
+        for (const record of this.records.values()) {
+            const i = index++;
+            if (record.score === null)
+                continue;
+            const key = descriptorOf(record.variant);
+            const current = champions.get(key);
+            if (current === undefined ||
+                record.score.finalScore > current.record.score.finalScore) {
+                champions.set(key, { record, index: i });
+            }
+        }
+        return [...champions.values()]
+            .sort((a, b) => {
+            const delta = b.record.score.finalScore - a.record.score.finalScore;
+            if (delta !== 0)
+                return delta; // higher finalScore first
+            return a.index - b.index; // tie-break: earlier insertion first
+        })
+            .slice(0, limit)
+            .map((c) => c.record.variant);
+    }
     /**
      * The path of ids from the root ancestor down to `variantId`, following
      * `parentId` upward then reversing. Returns `[]` if `variantId` is unknown.

package/dist/archive.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/bench/promotion.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"promotion.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/bench/promotion.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAcA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,iBAAiB,EAAE,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC;AAerE;;;;;;;;;;GAUG;AACH,wBAAgB,eAAe,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE;IACrC,aAAa,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,CAAC;IACjC,YAAY,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,CAAC;IAChC,WAAW,EAAE,OAAO,CAAC;IACrB,QAAQ,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAClB,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACd,OAAO,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CAClB,GAAG,iBAAiB,CAiFpB"}
+{"version":3,"file":"promotion.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/bench/promotion.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAcA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,iBAAiB,EAAE,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC;AAerE;;;;;;;;;;GAUG;AACH,wBAAgB,eAAe,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE;IACrC,aAAa,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,CAAC;IACjC,YAAY,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,CAAC;IAChC,WAAW,EAAE,OAAO,CAAC;IACrB,QAAQ,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAClB,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IACd,OAAO,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CAClB,GAAG,iBAAiB,CAkFpB"}

package/dist/bench/promotion.js

@@ -104,6 +104,7 @@ export function decidePromotion(input) {
         parentRegressionRate,
         childSafetyViolations,
         cleanReplay,
+        pValue: bootstrap.pValue,
     };
 }
 //# sourceMappingURL=promotion.js.map

package/dist/bench/promotion.js.map

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package/dist/bench/stats.d.ts

@@ -23,4 +23,18 @@ export declare function bootstrapDelta(parentScores: number[], childScores: numb
     seed?: number;
     minDelta?: number;
 }): BootstrapResult;
+/**
+ * Benjamini–Hochberg false-discovery-rate control (ADR-096). Given a set of
+ * one-sided p-values and a target FDR `q`, return a boolean per hypothesis:
+ * `true` ⇒ rejected H0 (i.e. a statistically real discovery after correcting
+ * for multiple testing). Standard step-up: sort ascending, find the largest k
+ * with p_(k) ≤ (k/m)·q, reject all hypotheses with p ≤ that threshold. Pure and
+ * deterministic. Empty input ⇒ empty output; q ≤ 0 ⇒ reject nothing.
+ *
+ * CALIBRATION (ADR-112): BH controls FDR only when the input p-values are
+ * (super-)uniform under the null. Bootstrap p-values from `bootstrapDelta` meet
+ * this from ~5 samples up; at n=3 they are too coarse/anti-conservative and the
+ * empirical FDR is ~33% at q=0.05. Callers must supply ≥ 5 task-scores per variant.
+ */
+export declare function benjaminiHochberg(pValues: readonly number[], q: number): boolean[];
 //# sourceMappingURL=stats.d.ts.map

package/dist/bench/stats.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"stats.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/bench/stats.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAcA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC;AAElD;;;;;GAKG;AACH,wBAAgB,OAAO,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,MAAM,CASlD;AAWD;;;;;;;;;;;GAWG;AACH,wBAAgB,cAAc,CAC5B,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,EACtB,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,EACrB,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE;IAAE,OAAO,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAAC,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;IAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;CAAE,GAC5D,eAAe,CAgCjB;AAED;;;;;;;;;;;;GAYG;AACH,wBAAgB,iBAAiB,CAAC,OAAO,EAAE,SAAS,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,OAAO,EAAE,CAYlF"}

package/dist/bench/stats.js

@@ -52,23 +52,59 @@ export function bootstrapDelta(parentScores, childScores, opts) {
     const seed = opts?.seed ?? 0;
     const minDelta = opts?.minDelta ?? 0.05;
     if (parentScores.length === 0 || childScores.length === 0) {
-        return { meanDelta: 0, lower95: 0, upper95: 0, promote: false, samples };
+        return { meanDelta: 0, lower95: 0, upper95: 0, promote: false, samples, pValue: 1 };
     }
     const rng = makeRng(seed);
     const deltas = new Array(samples);
     let sum = 0;
+    let nonPositive = 0;
     for (let i = 0; i < samples; i += 1) {
         const parent = parentScores[Math.floor(rng() * parentScores.length)];
         const child = childScores[Math.floor(rng() * childScores.length)];
         const delta = child - parent;
         deltas[i] = delta;
         sum += delta;
+        if (delta <= 0)
+            nonPositive += 1;
     }
     deltas.sort((x, y) => x - y);
     const meanDelta = round6(sum / samples);
     const lower95 = round6(deltas[Math.floor(samples * 0.025)]);
     const upper95 = round6(deltas[Math.floor(samples * 0.975)]);
     const promote = meanDelta > minDelta && lower95 > 0;
-    return { meanDelta, lower95, upper95, promote, samples };
+    // One-sided bootstrap p-value for H0: delta ≤ 0 (the share of resamples ≤ 0).
+    const pValue = round6(nonPositive / samples);
+    return { meanDelta, lower95, upper95, promote, samples, pValue };
+}
+/**
+ * Benjamini–Hochberg false-discovery-rate control (ADR-096). Given a set of
+ * one-sided p-values and a target FDR `q`, return a boolean per hypothesis:
+ * `true` ⇒ rejected H0 (i.e. a statistically real discovery after correcting
+ * for multiple testing). Standard step-up: sort ascending, find the largest k
+ * with p_(k) ≤ (k/m)·q, reject all hypotheses with p ≤ that threshold. Pure and
+ * deterministic. Empty input ⇒ empty output; q ≤ 0 ⇒ reject nothing.
+ *
+ * CALIBRATION (ADR-112): BH controls FDR only when the input p-values are
+ * (super-)uniform under the null. Bootstrap p-values from `bootstrapDelta` meet
+ * this from ~5 samples up; at n=3 they are too coarse/anti-conservative and the
+ * empirical FDR is ~33% at q=0.05. Callers must supply ≥ 5 task-scores per variant.
+ */
+export function benjaminiHochberg(pValues, q) {
+    const m = pValues.length;
+    const result = new Array(m).fill(false);
+    if (m === 0 || q <= 0)
+        return result;
+    const order = pValues.map((p, i) => ({ p, i })).sort((a, b) => a.p - b.p);
+    let cutoff = -1; // largest p that passes the BH threshold
+    for (let rank = 1; rank <= m; rank += 1) {
+        if (order[rank - 1].p <= (rank / m) * q)
+            cutoff = order[rank - 1].p;
+    }
+    if (cutoff < 0)
+        return result;
+    for (let j = 0; j < m; j += 1)
+        if (pValues[j] <= cutoff)
+            result[j] = true;
+    return result;
 }
 //# sourceMappingURL=stats.js.map

package/dist/bench/stats.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/bench/types.d.ts

@@ -107,6 +107,8 @@ export interface BootstrapResult {
     /** meanDelta > minDelta ∧ lower95 > 0. */
     promote: boolean;
     samples: number;
+    /** One-sided bootstrap p-value for H0: delta ≤ 0 (fraction of resamples ≤ 0). */
+    pValue: number;
 }
 /** The full, auditable promotion verdict for a child vs its parent. */
 export interface PromotionDecision {
@@ -122,6 +124,8 @@ export interface PromotionDecision {
     parentRegressionRate: number;
     childSafetyViolations: number;
     cleanReplay: boolean;
+    /** One-sided bootstrap p-value for the child>parent win (for FDR control, ADR-096). */
+    pValue: number;
 }
 /** A node in the lineage tree used for descendant-potential analysis. */
 export interface LineageNode {

package/dist/bench/types.d.ts.map

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package/dist/clade.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+import type { Archive } from './archive.js';
+import type { HarnessVariant } from './types.js';
+/** mulberry32 — a tiny, fast, deterministic PRNG seeded from a 32-bit integer. */
+export declare function mulberry32(seed: number): () => number;
+/** Beta(a, b) = X/(X+Y), X~Gamma(a), Y~Gamma(b). Deterministic given `rng`. */
+export declare function sampleBeta(rng: () => number, a: number, b: number): number;
+/**
+ * Clade outcome counts over a variant's descendant subtree (inclusive). A scored
+ * node is a "success" iff it was promoted, else a "failure"; unscored nodes are
+ * ignored. Cycle-guarded. O(subtree).
+ */
+export declare function cladeOutcomes(archive: Archive, rootId: string): {
+    passes: number;
+    failures: number;
+};
+/**
+ * Clade-metaproductivity Thompson selection: for every scored variant draw
+ * `u ~ Beta(τ·passes+1, τ·failures+1)` over its subtree outcomes and return the
+ * top-`limit` variants by `u`. Seeded → reproducible. Returns `[]` when nothing
+ * is scored (caller falls back).
+ *
+ * @param tau exploration→exploitation schedule in [0, ∞): 0 ⇒ uniform Beta(1,1)
+ *   (pure exploration); larger ⇒ sharper posteriors (exploitation).
+ */
+export declare function cladeThompsonSelect(archive: Archive, tau: number, limit: number, seed: number): HarnessVariant[];
+//# sourceMappingURL=clade.d.ts.map

package/dist/clade.d.ts.map

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package/dist/clade.js

@@ -0,0 +1,115 @@
+// SPDX-License-Identifier: MIT
+//
+// Clade-metaproductivity parent selection (ADR-094), after the Huxley-Gödel
+// Machine (Wang, Piękos, Li et al., arXiv:2510.21614, 2025). It fixes the
+// "metaproductivity–performance mismatch": the best-SCORING variant is a poor
+// PARENT because it has exhausted its descendant diversity. HGM instead selects
+// parents by Clade Metaproductivity — the success rate of a variant's whole
+// descendant subtree — via Thompson sampling over Beta(τ·passes+1, τ·fails+1),
+// with τ scheduling exploration→exploitation.
+//
+// We tie τ to the SGM risk budget (ADR-090): early (budget full) → low τ → flat
+// Betas → exploration; late (budget spent) → high τ → sharp Betas → exploitation.
+//
+// Unlike the paper (which uses Math.random), the Beta draws here come from a
+// SEEDED PRNG, so clade selection is fully reproducible (ADR-075) — same seed ⇒
+// same parents. Dependency-free.
+/** mulberry32 — a tiny, fast, deterministic PRNG seeded from a 32-bit integer. */
+export function mulberry32(seed) {
+    let a = seed >>> 0;
+    return () => {
+        a = (a + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0;
+        let t = a;
+        t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1);
+        t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61);
+        return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
+    };
+}
+/** Standard normal via Box–Muller from a uniform stream. */
+function sampleNormal(rng) {
+    let u = 0, v = 0;
+    while (u === 0)
+        u = rng();
+    while (v === 0)
+        v = rng();
+    return Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(u)) * Math.cos(2 * Math.PI * v);
+}
+/** Gamma(shape ≥ 1, scale 1) via Marsaglia–Tsang. Our shapes are always ≥ 1. */
+function sampleGamma(rng, shape) {
+    const k = Math.max(1, shape);
+    const d = k - 1 / 3;
+    const c = 1 / Math.sqrt(9 * d);
+    for (;;) {
+        const x = sampleNormal(rng);
+        const v0 = 1 + c * x;
+        if (v0 <= 0)
+            continue;
+        const v = v0 * v0 * v0;
+        const u = rng();
+        if (u < 1 - 0.0331 * x * x * x * x)
+            return d * v;
+        if (Math.log(u) < 0.5 * x * x + d * (1 - v + Math.log(v)))
+            return d * v;
+    }
+}
+/** Beta(a, b) = X/(X+Y), X~Gamma(a), Y~Gamma(b). Deterministic given `rng`. */
+export function sampleBeta(rng, a, b) {
+    const x = sampleGamma(rng, a);
+    const y = sampleGamma(rng, b);
+    return x + y === 0 ? 0.5 : x / (x + y);
+}
+/**
+ * Clade outcome counts over a variant's descendant subtree (inclusive). A scored
+ * node is a "success" iff it was promoted, else a "failure"; unscored nodes are
+ * ignored. Cycle-guarded. O(subtree).
+ */
+export function cladeOutcomes(archive, rootId) {
+    let passes = 0, failures = 0;
+    const seen = new Set();
+    const stack = [rootId];
+    while (stack.length > 0) {
+        const id = stack.pop();
+        if (seen.has(id))
+            continue;
+        seen.add(id);
+        const rec = archive.get(id);
+        if (!rec)
+            continue;
+        if (rec.score !== null) {
+            if (rec.score.promoted)
+                passes += 1;
+            else
+                failures += 1;
+        }
+        for (const child of rec.children)
+            stack.push(child);
+    }
+    return { passes, failures };
+}
+/**
+ * Clade-metaproductivity Thompson selection: for every scored variant draw
+ * `u ~ Beta(τ·passes+1, τ·failures+1)` over its subtree outcomes and return the
+ * top-`limit` variants by `u`. Seeded → reproducible. Returns `[]` when nothing
+ * is scored (caller falls back).
+ *
+ * @param tau exploration→exploitation schedule in [0, ∞): 0 ⇒ uniform Beta(1,1)
+ *   (pure exploration); larger ⇒ sharper posteriors (exploitation).
+ */
+export function cladeThompsonSelect(archive, tau, limit, seed) {
+    if (limit <= 0)
+        return [];
+    const rng = mulberry32(seed);
+    const t = Math.max(0, tau);
+    const scored = archive.all().filter((r) => r.score !== null);
+    if (scored.length === 0)
+        return [];
+    const ranked = scored
+        .map((r) => {
+        const { passes, failures } = cladeOutcomes(archive, r.variant.id);
+        const u = sampleBeta(rng, t * passes + 1, t * failures + 1);
+        return { variant: r.variant, u };
+    })
+        .sort((a, b) => b.u - a.u);
+    return ranked.slice(0, limit).map((x) => x.variant);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=clade.js.map

package/dist/clade.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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