@merittdev/horus 0.13.2 → 0.14.0

package/dist/index.cjs

@@ -65880,7 +65880,7 @@ init_cjs_shims();
 
 // ../../packages/core/src/version.ts
 init_cjs_shims();
-var HORUS_VERSION = true ? "0.13.2" : "dev";
+var HORUS_VERSION = true ? "0.14.0" : "dev";
 var PINNED_SOURCE_VERSION = "2.0.2";
 
 // ../../packages/core/src/evidence.ts
@@ -74634,21 +74634,21 @@ function analyzeQueueSignals(q2) {
   if (q2.failedBreakdown && q2.failedBreakdown.length > 0 && q2.failed > 0) {
     const top = q2.failedBreakdown[0];
     const sampleTotal = q2.failedBreakdown.reduce((sum, b5) => sum + b5.count, 0);
-    const pct = Math.round(top.count / Math.max(sampleTotal, 1) * 100);
-    if (pct >= BREAKDOWN_PCT_THRESHOLD) {
+    const pct2 = Math.round(top.count / Math.max(sampleTotal, 1) * 100);
+    if (pct2 >= BREAKDOWN_PCT_THRESHOLD) {
       const stale = isStaleFailure(top.lastFailedAgeMs);
       const ageStr = top.lastFailedAgeMs !== void 0 ? `, last failed ${fmtMs(top.lastFailedAgeMs)} ago${stale ? " [STALE]" : ""}` : "";
       signals.push({
         queueName: q2.queueName,
         kind: "failed-breakdown",
-        title: `${q2.queueName}: ${pct}% of recently sampled failures (${top.count}/${sampleTotal} sampled) are "${top.reason}"${ageStr}`,
+        title: `${q2.queueName}: ${pct2}% of recently sampled failures (${top.count}/${sampleTotal} sampled) are "${top.reason}"${ageStr}`,
         // Demote a stale-only breakdown so a days-old error isn't read as live (HOR-217).
         relevance: stale ? 0.5 : 0.82,
         payload: {
           queueName: q2.queueName,
           topReason: top.reason,
           topCount: top.count,
-          topPct: pct,
+          topPct: pct2,
           totalFailed: q2.failed,
           topLastFailedAgeMs: top.lastFailedAgeMs ?? null,
           topStale: stale,
@@ -76748,7 +76748,7 @@ function sql(strings, ...params) {
     return new SQL([new StringChunk(str3)]);
   }
   sql2.raw = raw;
-  function join18(chunks, separator) {
+  function join20(chunks, separator) {
     const result = [];
     for (const [i3, chunk] of chunks.entries()) {
       if (i3 > 0 && separator !== void 0) {
@@ -76758,7 +76758,7 @@ function sql(strings, ...params) {
     }
     return new SQL(result);
   }
-  sql2.join = join18;
+  sql2.join = join20;
   function identifier(value) {
     return new Name(value);
   }
@@ -80349,7 +80349,7 @@ var PgSelectQueryBuilderBase = class extends TypedQueryBuilder {
     return (table, on2) => {
       const baseTableName = this.tableName;
       const tableName = getTableLikeName(table);
-      if (typeof tableName === "string" && this.config.joins?.some((join18) => join18.alias === tableName)) {
+      if (typeof tableName === "string" && this.config.joins?.some((join20) => join20.alias === tableName)) {
         throw new Error(`Alias "${tableName}" is already used in this query`);
       }
       if (!this.isPartialSelect) {
@@ -81361,7 +81361,7 @@ var PgUpdateBase = class extends QueryPromise {
   createJoin(joinType) {
     return (table, on2) => {
       const tableName = getTableLikeName(table);
-      if (typeof tableName === "string" && this.config.joins.some((join18) => join18.alias === tableName)) {
+      if (typeof tableName === "string" && this.config.joins.some((join20) => join20.alias === tableName)) {
         throw new Error(`Alias "${tableName}" is already used in this query`);
       }
       if (typeof on2 === "function") {
@@ -81457,10 +81457,10 @@ var PgUpdateBase = class extends QueryPromise {
           const fromFields = this.getTableLikeFields(this.config.from);
           fields[tableName] = fromFields;
         }
-        for (const join18 of this.config.joins) {
-          const tableName2 = getTableLikeName(join18.table);
-          if (typeof tableName2 === "string" && !is(join18.table, SQL)) {
-            const fromFields = this.getTableLikeFields(join18.table);
+        for (const join20 of this.config.joins) {
+          const tableName2 = getTableLikeName(join20.table);
+          if (typeof tableName2 === "string" && !is(join20.table, SQL)) {
+            const fromFields = this.getTableLikeFields(join20.table);
             fields[tableName2] = fromFields;
           }
         }
@@ -93552,16 +93552,27 @@ function rankCauses(inputs, ctx, limit = 3) {
   });
   return scored.slice(0, limit);
 }
-function selectHeadlineCause(rankedCauses, isLinkedToSeed) {
+function selectHeadlineCause(rankedCauses, isLinkedToSeed, rerank) {
   let topCause;
-  let topLinkedCause;
   for (const c4 of rankedCauses) {
     if (topCause === void 0 || c4.finalScore > topCause.finalScore) topCause = c4;
-    if (c4.finalScore >= 0.2 && isLinkedToSeed(c4.sourceEvidenceIds) && (topLinkedCause === void 0 || c4.finalScore > topLinkedCause.finalScore)) {
-      topLinkedCause = c4;
-    }
   }
-  const headlineCause = topLinkedCause ?? (topCause && topCause.finalScore >= 0.2 ? topCause : void 0);
+  const pickEligible = (set) => {
+    if (set.length === 0) return void 0;
+    if (rerank) {
+      const top = rerank(set).find((c4) => set.includes(c4));
+      if (top) return top;
+    }
+    let best = set[0];
+    for (const c4 of set) if (c4.finalScore > best.finalScore) best = c4;
+    return best;
+  };
+  const linkedEligible = rankedCauses.filter(
+    (c4) => c4.finalScore >= 0.2 && isLinkedToSeed(c4.sourceEvidenceIds)
+  );
+  const allEligible = rankedCauses.filter((c4) => c4.finalScore >= 0.2);
+  const topLinkedCause = pickEligible(linkedEligible);
+  const headlineCause = topLinkedCause ?? pickEligible(allEligible);
   const headlineLinked = headlineCause !== void 0 && isLinkedToSeed(headlineCause.sourceEvidenceIds);
   return { topCause, topLinkedCause, headlineCause, headlineLinked };
 }
@@ -96300,7 +96311,7 @@ function formatRegressionCitation(recentChanges, changes, seedFile) {
   return { commitClause, symbolClause };
 }
 async function investigate(input, deps) {
-  const { code, db } = deps;
+  const { code, db, rerank } = deps;
   const hint = input.hint.trim();
   const intent = classifyIntent(hint, input.since);
   const namedSymbols = parseNamedSymbols(hint);
@@ -97806,7 +97817,7 @@ async function investigate(input, deps) {
     ...looksPerformance(hint) ? latencyMetricEvIds : []
   ]);
   const isLinkedToSeed = (ids2) => ids2.some((id) => seedLinkedEvIds.has(id));
-  const { headlineCause, headlineLinked } = selectHeadlineCause(rankedCauses, isLinkedToSeed);
+  const { headlineCause, headlineLinked } = selectHeadlineCause(rankedCauses, isLinkedToSeed, rerank);
   if (headlineCause && !headlineLinked && !sourceImpactHint) confidence = Math.min(confidence, 0.6);
   const banner2 = degradedNoSource ? "Runtime-only (source intelligence unavailable). " : "";
   const scope = top ? seedIsLowConfidence ? "could not be confidently localized from source alone" : `resolved to ${label} (${area})` : `over runtime evidence (${area})`;
@@ -99380,8 +99391,8 @@ function renderMemoryView(v4) {
   }
   const own = v4.ownedAreas.ownership;
   if (own != null && own.file != null) {
-    const pct = (own.confidence * 100).toFixed(0);
-    lines.push(`Likely maintainer: ${own.likelyMaintainer ?? "(unknown)"} (${pct}% confidence)`);
+    const pct2 = (own.confidence * 100).toFixed(0);
+    lines.push(`Likely maintainer: ${own.likelyMaintainer ?? "(unknown)"} (${pct2}% confidence)`);
     if (own.mostActiveRecent != null) {
       lines.push(`Most active recently: ${own.mostActiveRecent}`);
     }
@@ -99561,9 +99572,9 @@ function renderOwnership(o5) {
   }
   lines.push("File   : " + o5.file);
   lines.push("");
-  const pct = (o5.confidence * 100).toFixed(0);
+  const pct2 = (o5.confidence * 100).toFixed(0);
   lines.push(
-    "Likely maintainer  : " + (o5.likelyMaintainer ?? "(unknown)") + " (" + pct + "% confidence)"
+    "Likely maintainer  : " + (o5.likelyMaintainer ?? "(unknown)") + " (" + pct2 + "% confidence)"
   );
   lines.push("Most active recently: " + (o5.mostActiveRecent ?? "(unknown)"));
   lines.push("");
@@ -100446,10 +100457,10 @@ function renderOnboarding(g4) {
   lines.push("## Who owns this area");
   lines.push("");
   if (g4.ownership != null && g4.ownership.file != null) {
-    const pct = (g4.ownership.confidence * 100).toFixed(0);
+    const pct2 = (g4.ownership.confidence * 100).toFixed(0);
     lines.push(`File: ${g4.ownership.file}`);
     lines.push(
-      `Likely maintainer: ${g4.ownership.likelyMaintainer ?? "(unknown)"} (${pct}% confidence)`
+      `Likely maintainer: ${g4.ownership.likelyMaintainer ?? "(unknown)"} (${pct2}% confidence)`
     );
   } else {
     lines.push(
@@ -102784,27 +102795,27 @@ function extractQueueGraph(input) {
     }
   }
   const producers = [];
-  for (const pc58 of input.producerClasses) {
-    const loopVarEnums = loopVarEnumsFor(pc58.content);
-    for (const m5 of pc58.content.matchAll(INJECT_QUEUE_RE)) {
+  for (const pc59 of input.producerClasses) {
+    const loopVarEnums = loopVarEnumsFor(pc59.content);
+    for (const m5 of pc59.content.matchAll(INJECT_QUEUE_RE)) {
       const queue = m5[1] ?? "";
-      if (queue) producers.push({ queue, symbol: pc58.name, file: pc58.filePath });
+      if (queue) producers.push({ queue, symbol: pc59.name, file: pc59.filePath });
     }
-    for (const m5 of pc58.content.matchAll(NEW_BULL_RE)) {
+    for (const m5 of pc59.content.matchAll(NEW_BULL_RE)) {
       if (m5[2] !== "Queue") continue;
       const queues2 = resolveArg(m5[3] ?? "", constMap, enums, loopVarEnums);
       for (const queue of queues2) {
         producers.push({
           queue,
-          symbol: (m5[1] ?? pc58.name) || baseName(pc58.filePath),
-          file: pc58.filePath
+          symbol: (m5[1] ?? pc59.name) || baseName(pc59.filePath),
+          file: pc59.filePath
         });
       }
     }
-    for (const m5 of pc58.content.matchAll(QUEUE_NAME_CONST_RE)) {
+    for (const m5 of pc59.content.matchAll(QUEUE_NAME_CONST_RE)) {
       const ident = m5[1] ?? "";
       const queue = m5[2] ?? "";
-      if (queue) producers.push({ queue, symbol: ident || baseName(pc58.filePath), file: pc58.filePath });
+      if (queue) producers.push({ queue, symbol: ident || baseName(pc59.filePath), file: pc59.filePath });
     }
   }
   const workers = [];
@@ -116553,6 +116564,479 @@ function renderFreshness(f5) {
 // ../../packages/cli/src/lib/investigation-runner.ts
 init_cjs_shims();
 var import_picocolors16 = __toESM(require_picocolors(), 1);
+var import_node_fs19 = require("fs");
+var import_node_path21 = require("path");
+var import_node_os8 = require("os");
+
+// ../../packages/eval/src/index.ts
+init_cjs_shims();
+
+// ../../packages/eval/src/types.ts
+init_cjs_shims();
+var CORPUS_VERSION = "v1";
+
+// ../../packages/eval/src/corpus.ts
+init_cjs_shims();
+function toUsableReport(blob) {
+  if (blob === null || typeof blob !== "object") return null;
+  const r = blob;
+  if (!Array.isArray(r.suspectedCauses)) return null;
+  const seeds = Array.isArray(r.seeds) ? r.seeds.map((s5) => s5 && typeof s5 === "object" && "name" in s5 ? String(s5.name) : "").filter(Boolean) : [];
+  return {
+    summary: typeof r.summary === "string" ? r.summary : "",
+    confidence: typeof r.confidence === "number" && Number.isFinite(r.confidence) ? r.confidence : 0,
+    seeds,
+    causes: r.suspectedCauses
+  };
+}
+function pickHeadlineCause(causes) {
+  let best = null;
+  for (const c4 of causes) {
+    if (best === null || c4.finalScore > best.finalScore || c4.finalScore === best.finalScore && c4.id < best.id) {
+      best = c4;
+    }
+  }
+  return best;
+}
+function flattenFactors(cause) {
+  const sums = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  for (const e of cause.explanations ?? []) {
+    sums.set(e.factor, (sums.get(e.factor) ?? 0) + e.delta);
+  }
+  return [...sums.entries()].map(([factor, delta]) => ({ factor, delta })).sort((a2, b5) => a2.factor < b5.factor ? -1 : a2.factor > b5.factor ? 1 : 0);
+}
+function projectHeadline(cause) {
+  return {
+    id: cause.id,
+    category: cause.category,
+    finalScore: cause.finalScore,
+    confidence: cause.confidence,
+    band: cause.band,
+    sourceEvidenceIds: [...cause.sourceEvidenceIds ?? []].sort(),
+    factors: flattenFactors(cause)
+  };
+}
+function buildCorpus(labels, resolveReport) {
+  const current = dedupeToCurrentVerdict(labels);
+  const evaluated = current.length;
+  const rows = [];
+  const quarantined = [];
+  const unjoinable = [];
+  for (const label of current) {
+    if (label.investigationId === null) {
+      unjoinable.push({ investigationId: null, reason: "null-investigation" });
+      continue;
+    }
+    if (!isOutcomeResolved(label.resolved) || !isOutcomeSource(label.source)) {
+      quarantined.push({
+        investigationId: label.investigationId,
+        resolved: String(label.resolved),
+        source: String(label.source),
+        reason: !isOutcomeResolved(label.resolved) ? `invalid resolved "${String(label.resolved)}"` : `invalid source "${String(label.source)}"`
+      });
+      continue;
+    }
+    const blob = resolveReport(label.investigationId);
+    if (blob === null || blob === void 0) {
+      unjoinable.push({ investigationId: label.investigationId, reason: "missing-report" });
+      continue;
+    }
+    const report = toUsableReport(blob);
+    if (report === null) {
+      unjoinable.push({ investigationId: label.investigationId, reason: "legacy-report" });
+      continue;
+    }
+    const isConfirm = label.source === "confirm";
+    const headline = pickHeadlineCause(report.causes);
+    rows.push({
+      investigationId: label.investigationId,
+      project: label.project,
+      at: label.at instanceof Date ? label.at.toISOString() : String(label.at),
+      target: label.resolved,
+      source: label.source,
+      weak: isConfirm,
+      confirmedCause: isConfirm ? null : label.confirmedCause ?? null,
+      summary: report.summary,
+      reportConfidence: report.confidence,
+      seeds: report.seeds,
+      causeCount: report.causes.length,
+      headlineCause: headline ? projectHeadline(headline) : null
+    });
+  }
+  const classBalance = { yes: 0, partly: 0, no: 0 };
+  const bySource = { feedback: 0, confirm: 0 };
+  for (const r of rows) {
+    classBalance[r.target] += 1;
+    bySource[r.source] += 1;
+  }
+  return { rows, evaluated, quarantined, unjoinable, classBalance, bySource };
+}
+function corpusFilename(version3 = CORPUS_VERSION) {
+  return `corpus-${version3}.jsonl`;
+}
+function sortRows(rows) {
+  return [...rows].sort((a2, b5) => {
+    if (a2.investigationId !== b5.investigationId) return a2.investigationId < b5.investigationId ? -1 : 1;
+    if (a2.at !== b5.at) return a2.at < b5.at ? -1 : 1;
+    return 0;
+  });
+}
+function fnv1a(s5) {
+  let h3 = 2166136261;
+  for (let i3 = 0; i3 < s5.length; i3++) {
+    h3 ^= s5.charCodeAt(i3);
+    h3 = Math.imul(h3, 16777619);
+  }
+  return h3 >>> 0;
+}
+function holdoutSplit(rows, holdoutPct = 20) {
+  const train = [];
+  const holdout = [];
+  for (const r of rows) {
+    if (fnv1a(r.investigationId) % 100 < holdoutPct) holdout.push(r.investigationId);
+    else train.push(r.investigationId);
+  }
+  train.sort();
+  holdout.sort();
+  return { holdoutPct, train, holdout };
+}
+function serializeCorpus(build, version3 = CORPUS_VERSION) {
+  const sorted = sortRows(build.rows);
+  const jsonl = sorted.map((r) => JSON.stringify(r)).join("\n") + (sorted.length > 0 ? "\n" : "");
+  const manifest = {
+    version: version3,
+    generatedAt: null,
+    rows: sorted.length,
+    evaluated: build.evaluated,
+    quarantined: build.quarantined.length,
+    unjoinable: build.unjoinable.length,
+    classBalance: build.classBalance,
+    bySource: build.bySource,
+    holdout: holdoutSplit(sorted)
+  };
+  return { filename: corpusFilename(version3), jsonl, manifest };
+}
+
+// ../../packages/eval/src/baseline.ts
+init_cjs_shims();
+function computeBaseline(labels) {
+  const summary = summarizeOutcomeLabels(labels);
+  const byProjectMap = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  for (const l2 of labels) {
+    const key = l2.project ?? null;
+    const arr = byProjectMap.get(key);
+    if (arr) arr.push(l2);
+    else byProjectMap.set(key, [l2]);
+  }
+  const byProject = [...byProjectMap.entries()].map(([project, slice]) => {
+    const s5 = summarizeOutcomeLabels(slice);
+    return {
+      project,
+      n: s5.evaluated,
+      strictHitRate: s5.accuracy,
+      weightedHitRate: s5.weightedScore
+    };
+  }).sort((a2, b5) => {
+    if (a2.project === b5.project) return 0;
+    if (a2.project === null) return 1;
+    if (b5.project === null) return -1;
+    return a2.project < b5.project ? -1 : 1;
+  });
+  return {
+    n: summary.evaluated,
+    strictHitRate: summary.accuracy,
+    weightedHitRate: summary.weightedScore,
+    classBalance: summary.counts,
+    bySource: summary.bySource,
+    byProject
+  };
+}
+function mean(xs) {
+  if (xs.length === 0) return 0;
+  return xs.reduce((a2, b5) => a2 + b5, 0) / xs.length;
+}
+function variance(xs, m5) {
+  if (xs.length === 0) return 0;
+  return xs.reduce((a2, b5) => a2 + (b5 - m5) * (b5 - m5), 0) / xs.length;
+}
+function featureSeparation(rows) {
+  const usable = rows.filter(
+    (r) => !r.weak && r.headlineCause !== null && (r.target === "yes" || r.target === "no")
+  );
+  const factorSet = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set();
+  for (const r of usable) {
+    for (const f5 of r.headlineCause.factors) factorSet.add(f5.factor);
+  }
+  const factors = [...factorSet].sort();
+  const out2 = factors.map((factor) => {
+    const yes = [];
+    const no = [];
+    for (const r of usable) {
+      const f5 = r.headlineCause.factors.find((x4) => x4.factor === factor);
+      const delta = f5 ? f5.delta : 0;
+      if (r.target === "yes") yes.push(delta);
+      else no.push(delta);
+    }
+    const meanYes = mean(yes);
+    const meanNo = mean(no);
+    const varYes = variance(yes, meanYes);
+    const varNo = variance(no, meanNo);
+    const separation = meanYes - meanNo;
+    const all = yes.concat(no);
+    const overallMean = mean(all);
+    const pooledVar = variance(all, overallMean);
+    const pooledStd = Math.sqrt(pooledVar);
+    const effectSize = pooledStd === 0 ? 0 : separation / pooledStd;
+    const cv = overallMean === 0 ? 0 : pooledStd / Math.abs(overallMean);
+    return {
+      factor,
+      nYes: yes.length,
+      nNo: no.length,
+      meanYes,
+      meanNo,
+      varYes,
+      varNo,
+      separation,
+      effectSize,
+      cv
+    };
+  });
+  out2.sort((a2, b5) => {
+    const d3 = Math.abs(b5.effectSize) - Math.abs(a2.effectSize);
+    if (d3 !== 0) return d3;
+    return a2.factor < b5.factor ? -1 : a2.factor > b5.factor ? 1 : 0;
+  });
+  return { evaluated: usable.length, factors: out2 };
+}
+
+// ../../packages/eval/src/reranker.ts
+init_cjs_shims();
+var RERANKER_VERSION = "v1";
+var MIN_TRAIN_INVESTIGATIONS = 25;
+var SCALAR_KEYS = ["finalScore", "confidence", "baseScore", "evidenceCount", "affectedCount"];
+function tokenize4(s5) {
+  return new Set(
+    s5.toLowerCase().split(/[^a-z0-9]+/).filter((t2) => t2.length >= 3)
+  );
+}
+function matchesConfirmedCause(confirmedCause, cause) {
+  const a2 = tokenize4(confirmedCause);
+  const b5 = tokenize4(`${cause.title} ${cause.category}`);
+  if (a2.size === 0 || b5.size === 0) return 0;
+  let overlap = 0;
+  for (const t2 of a2) if (b5.has(t2)) overlap += 1;
+  return overlap / a2.size;
+}
+function collectFeatureKeys(investigations2) {
+  const factors = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set();
+  for (const inv of investigations2) {
+    for (const c4 of inv.candidates) {
+      for (const e of c4.explanations ?? []) factors.add(e.factor);
+    }
+  }
+  return [...SCALAR_KEYS, ...[...factors].sort().map((f5) => `f:${f5}`)];
+}
+function extractRawFeatures(cause, featureKeys) {
+  const factorDelta = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  for (const e of cause.explanations ?? []) {
+    factorDelta.set(e.factor, (factorDelta.get(e.factor) ?? 0) + e.delta);
+  }
+  return featureKeys.map((k3) => {
+    switch (k3) {
+      case "finalScore":
+        return cause.finalScore;
+      case "confidence":
+        return cause.confidence;
+      case "baseScore":
+        return cause.baseScore;
+      case "evidenceCount":
+        return cause.sourceEvidenceIds?.length ?? 0;
+      case "affectedCount":
+        return cause.affectedNodeIds?.length ?? 0;
+      default:
+        return factorDelta.get(k3.slice(2)) ?? 0;
+    }
+  });
+}
+function baselineTop(candidates) {
+  let best = null;
+  for (const c4 of candidates) {
+    if (best === null || c4.finalScore > best.finalScore || c4.finalScore === best.finalScore && c4.id < best.id) {
+      best = c4;
+    }
+  }
+  return best;
+}
+function deriveLabels(inv) {
+  const cands = inv.candidates;
+  if (cands.length === 0) return { relevantId: null, examples: [] };
+  if (inv.confirmedCause && inv.confirmedCause.trim() !== "") {
+    let bestId = null;
+    let bestScore = 0;
+    for (const c4 of cands) {
+      const m5 = matchesConfirmedCause(inv.confirmedCause, c4);
+      if (m5 > bestScore) {
+        bestScore = m5;
+        bestId = c4.id;
+      }
+    }
+    if (bestId !== null && bestScore >= 0.34) {
+      return {
+        relevantId: bestId,
+        examples: cands.map((c4) => ({ cause: c4, label: c4.id === bestId ? 1 : 0 }))
+      };
+    }
+  }
+  const top = baselineTop(cands);
+  if (top === null) return { relevantId: null, examples: [] };
+  if (inv.target === "yes") {
+    return { relevantId: top.id, examples: cands.map((c4) => ({ cause: c4, label: c4.id === top.id ? 1 : 0 })) };
+  }
+  if (inv.target === "no") {
+    return { relevantId: null, examples: [{ cause: top, label: 0 }] };
+  }
+  return { relevantId: null, examples: [] };
+}
+function sigmoid(z4) {
+  if (z4 >= 0) return 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-z4));
+  const e = Math.exp(z4);
+  return e / (1 + e);
+}
+function fitLogistic(X2, y5, opts = {}) {
+  const epochs = opts.epochs ?? 400;
+  const lr = opts.lr ?? 0.1;
+  const l2 = opts.l2 ?? 1e-3;
+  const dim = X2[0]?.length ?? 0;
+  const weights = new Array(dim).fill(0);
+  let bias = 0;
+  const n4 = X2.length;
+  if (n4 === 0) return { weights, bias };
+  for (let epoch = 0; epoch < epochs; epoch++) {
+    const gradW = new Array(dim).fill(0);
+    let gradB = 0;
+    for (let i3 = 0; i3 < n4; i3++) {
+      const xi = X2[i3];
+      let z4 = bias;
+      for (let j3 = 0; j3 < dim; j3++) z4 += weights[j3] * xi[j3];
+      const err2 = sigmoid(z4) - y5[i3];
+      for (let j3 = 0; j3 < dim; j3++) gradW[j3] = gradW[j3] + err2 * xi[j3];
+      gradB += err2;
+    }
+    for (let j3 = 0; j3 < dim; j3++) weights[j3] = weights[j3] - lr * (gradW[j3] / n4 + l2 * weights[j3]);
+    bias -= lr * (gradB / n4);
+  }
+  return { weights, bias };
+}
+function scoreVector(weights, bias, x4) {
+  let z4 = bias;
+  for (let j3 = 0; j3 < weights.length; j3++) z4 += weights[j3] * x4[j3];
+  return z4;
+}
+function standardizeParams(X2) {
+  const dim = X2[0]?.length ?? 0;
+  const mean2 = new Array(dim).fill(0);
+  const std = new Array(dim).fill(0);
+  if (X2.length === 0) return { mean: mean2, std };
+  for (const row of X2) for (let j3 = 0; j3 < dim; j3++) mean2[j3] = mean2[j3] + row[j3];
+  for (let j3 = 0; j3 < dim; j3++) mean2[j3] = mean2[j3] / X2.length;
+  for (const row of X2) for (let j3 = 0; j3 < dim; j3++) std[j3] = std[j3] + (row[j3] - mean2[j3]) ** 2;
+  for (let j3 = 0; j3 < dim; j3++) std[j3] = Math.sqrt(std[j3] / X2.length) || 1;
+  return { mean: mean2, std };
+}
+function applyStandardize(x4, mean2, std) {
+  return x4.map((v4, j3) => (v4 - mean2[j3]) / std[j3]);
+}
+function top1HitRate(set, score) {
+  if (set.length === 0) return 0;
+  let hits = 0;
+  for (const { inv, relevantId } of set) {
+    let bestId = null;
+    let bestScore = -Infinity;
+    for (const c4 of inv.candidates) {
+      const s5 = score(c4);
+      if (s5 > bestScore || s5 === bestScore && bestId !== null && c4.id < bestId) {
+        bestScore = s5;
+        bestId = c4.id;
+      }
+    }
+    if (bestId === relevantId) hits += 1;
+  }
+  return hits / set.length;
+}
+function trainReranker(investigations2, holdoutIds, opts = {}) {
+  const labeled = investigations2.map((inv) => ({ inv, derived: deriveLabels(inv) })).filter((x4) => x4.derived.examples.length > 0);
+  const scorable = labeled.filter((x4) => x4.derived.relevantId !== null && x4.inv.candidates.length >= 2);
+  if (scorable.length < MIN_TRAIN_INVESTIGATIONS) {
+    return {
+      ok: false,
+      reason: "insufficient-corpus",
+      detail: `need \u2265${MIN_TRAIN_INVESTIGATIONS} labeled investigations with a known-correct candidate; have ${scorable.length}`,
+      labeledInvestigations: scorable.length
+    };
+  }
+  const featureKeys = collectFeatureKeys(investigations2);
+  const trainSet = scorable.filter((x4) => !holdoutIds.has(x4.inv.investigationId));
+  const holdoutSet = scorable.filter((x4) => holdoutIds.has(x4.inv.investigationId));
+  if (holdoutSet.length === 0 || trainSet.length === 0) {
+    return {
+      ok: false,
+      reason: "degenerate-holdout",
+      detail: `train/holdout split left ${trainSet.length} train / ${holdoutSet.length} holdout`,
+      labeledInvestigations: scorable.length
+    };
+  }
+  const rawX = [];
+  const y5 = [];
+  for (const { inv } of trainSet) {
+    for (const ex of deriveLabels(inv).examples) {
+      rawX.push(extractRawFeatures(ex.cause, featureKeys));
+      y5.push(ex.label);
+    }
+  }
+  if (rawX.length === 0) {
+    return { ok: false, reason: "no-derivable-labels", detail: "no training examples after split", labeledInvestigations: scorable.length };
+  }
+  const { mean: mean2, std } = standardizeParams(rawX);
+  const X2 = rawX.map((row) => applyStandardize(row, mean2, std));
+  const { weights, bias } = fitLogistic(X2, y5, opts);
+  const modelScore = (c4) => scoreVector(weights, bias, applyStandardize(extractRawFeatures(c4, featureKeys), mean2, std));
+  const holdoutScored = holdoutSet.map((x4) => ({ inv: x4.inv, relevantId: x4.derived.relevantId }));
+  const baselineHitRate = top1HitRate(holdoutScored, (c4) => c4.finalScore);
+  const rerankedHitRate = top1HitRate(holdoutScored, modelScore);
+  return {
+    ok: true,
+    version: RERANKER_VERSION,
+    featureKeys,
+    mean: mean2,
+    std,
+    weights,
+    bias,
+    holdout: {
+      n: holdoutScored.length,
+      baselineHitRate,
+      rerankedHitRate,
+      delta: rerankedHitRate - baselineHitRate
+    },
+    trainExamples: rawX.length,
+    trainInvestigations: trainSet.length
+  };
+}
+function applyReranker(model, candidates) {
+  const scored = candidates.map((c4, i3) => ({
+    c: c4,
+    i: i3,
+    s: scoreVector(model.weights, model.bias, applyStandardize(extractRawFeatures(c4, model.featureKeys), model.mean, model.std))
+  }));
+  scored.sort((a2, b5) => b5.s - a2.s || a2.i - b5.i);
+  return scored.map((x4) => x4.c);
+}
+function isRerankerModel(blob) {
+  if (blob === null || typeof blob !== "object") return false;
+  const m5 = blob;
+  return Array.isArray(m5.featureKeys) && Array.isArray(m5.weights) && Array.isArray(m5.mean) && Array.isArray(m5.std) && typeof m5.bias === "number" && m5.weights.length === m5.featureKeys.length;
+}
+
+// ../../packages/cli/src/lib/investigation-runner.ts
 async function buildInvestigationContext(renv, opts) {
   const log = opts.log ?? ((l2) => console.error(l2));
   let code = codeForEnv(renv);
@@ -116611,8 +117095,21 @@ function databaseUrlOrThrow(url) {
   if (!url) throw new Error("No database URL configured for the investigation store.");
   return url;
 }
+function loadReranker() {
+  const flag = process.env.HORUS_RERANK;
+  if (!flag || flag === "0" || flag.toLowerCase() === "false") return void 0;
+  try {
+    const blob = JSON.parse((0, import_node_fs19.readFileSync)((0, import_node_path21.join)((0, import_node_os8.homedir)(), ".horus", "reranker.json"), "utf8"));
+    if (!isRerankerModel(blob)) return void 0;
+    if ((blob.holdout?.delta ?? 0) <= 0) return void 0;
+    return (causes) => applyReranker(blob, causes);
+  } catch {
+    return void 0;
+  }
+}
 async function runOneInvestigation(input, ctx, opts = {}) {
   const { renv } = ctx;
+  const rerank = loadReranker();
   const investigation = investigate(
     {
       hint: input.hint,
@@ -116646,7 +117143,10 @@ async function runOneInvestigation(input, ctx, opts = {}) {
         axiom: !!renv.connectors.axiom,
         redis: !!renv.connectors.redis?.url,
         queue: !!ctx.queue
-      }
+      },
+      // HOR-404: inject the learned reranker only when enabled + proven (loadReranker gates both);
+      // CONTEXT-ONLY — it reorders eligible causes, never touches confidence/verdict/ceilings.
+      ...rerank ? { rerank } : {}
     }
   );
   const timeoutMs = opts.timeoutMs ?? (Number(process.env.HORUS_INVESTIGATE_TIMEOUT_S) || 120) * 1e3;
@@ -117980,8 +118480,8 @@ async function runOwner(query, opts) {
 
 // ../../packages/cli/src/commands/postmortem.ts
 init_cjs_shims();
-var import_node_fs19 = require("fs");
-var import_node_path21 = require("path");
+var import_node_fs20 = require("fs");
+var import_node_path22 = require("path");
 var import_picocolors30 = __toESM(require_picocolors(), 1);
 async function runPostmortem(id, opts) {
   const log = opts.write ?? ((line2) => console.log(line2));
@@ -118092,14 +118592,14 @@ _AI summary unavailable: ${validationErrors?.[0] ?? "provider error"}_
       }
     }
     if (opts.output) {
-      const outputPath = (0, import_node_path21.resolve)(opts.output);
-      if ((0, import_node_fs19.existsSync)(outputPath) && !opts.force) {
+      const outputPath = (0, import_node_path22.resolve)(opts.output);
+      if ((0, import_node_fs20.existsSync)(outputPath) && !opts.force) {
         log(import_picocolors30.default.red("\u2717") + " " + outputPath + " already exists");
         log(import_picocolors30.default.dim("  pass --force to overwrite"));
         return 1;
       }
       try {
-        (0, import_node_fs19.writeFileSync)(outputPath, content, "utf8");
+        (0, import_node_fs20.writeFileSync)(outputPath, content, "utf8");
       } catch (err2) {
         log(import_picocolors30.default.red("\u2717 Could not write " + outputPath + ": ") + err2.message);
         return 1;
@@ -119683,7 +120183,7 @@ async function runMemoryAccuracy(opts) {
           )
         );
       } else {
-        const pct = (n4) => `${(n4 * 100).toFixed(0)}%`;
+        const pct2 = (n4) => `${(n4 * 100).toFixed(0)}%`;
         console.log(import_picocolors34.default.bold(`Investigation accuracy \u2014 ${project}`) + import_picocolors34.default.dim(`  \xB7  window: ${window2}`));
         if (summary.evaluated === 0) {
           console.log(
@@ -119693,7 +120193,7 @@ async function runMemoryAccuracy(opts) {
           );
         } else {
           console.log(
-            `  Pointed at the cause: ${import_picocolors34.default.green(pct(summary.accuracy))} ` + import_picocolors34.default.dim(`(weighted ${pct(summary.weightedScore)}) over ${summary.evaluated} investigation(s)`)
+            `  Pointed at the cause: ${import_picocolors34.default.green(pct2(summary.accuracy))} ` + import_picocolors34.default.dim(`(weighted ${pct2(summary.weightedScore)}) over ${summary.evaluated} investigation(s)`)
           );
           console.log(
             `  Verdicts: ${import_picocolors34.default.green(`${summary.counts.yes} yes`)}, ${import_picocolors34.default.yellow(`${summary.counts.partly} partly`)}, ${import_picocolors34.default.red(`${summary.counts.no} no`)}`
@@ -120497,12 +120997,12 @@ async function runState(opts) {
 // ../../packages/cli/src/commands/init.ts
 init_cjs_shims();
 var import_picocolors39 = __toESM(require_picocolors(), 1);
-var import_node_path22 = require("path");
+var import_node_path23 = require("path");
 async function runInit(opts) {
   try {
     const cwd = process.cwd();
-    const root = opts.path ? (0, import_node_path22.resolve)(opts.path) : findRepoRoot(cwd) ?? cwd;
-    const name2 = opts.name ?? (0, import_node_path22.basename)(root);
+    const root = opts.path ? (0, import_node_path23.resolve)(opts.path) : findRepoRoot(cwd) ?? cwd;
+    const name2 = opts.name ?? (0, import_node_path23.basename)(root);
     const envName = opts.env ?? "production";
     const repo = { name: name2, path: root };
     if (opts.source) repo["source"] = { hostUrl: opts.source };
@@ -121888,12 +122388,12 @@ function redactUrl(raw) {
 // ../../packages/cli/src/commands/stop.ts
 init_cjs_shims();
 var import_node_child_process10 = require("child_process");
-var import_node_fs20 = require("fs");
+var import_node_fs21 = require("fs");
 var import_node_util6 = require("util");
-var import_node_path23 = require("path");
+var import_node_path24 = require("path");
 var import_picocolors45 = __toESM(require_picocolors(), 1);
 var execFileAsync3 = (0, import_node_util6.promisify)(import_node_child_process10.execFile);
-var unlinkAsync = (0, import_node_util6.promisify)(import_node_fs20.unlink);
+var unlinkAsync = (0, import_node_util6.promisify)(import_node_fs21.unlink);
 var SPAWNED_HOST_FILE2 = "spawned-host.json";
 var START_TIME_TOLERANCE_S = 60;
 var STOP_WAIT_MS = 5e3;
@@ -122035,11 +122535,11 @@ function isOwnHostProcess(pid, port, root, args2) {
   if (hostArgvRegex(port).test(args2)) return true;
   if (!hostArgvAnyPortRegex().test(args2)) return false;
   const rec = readSourceHostPid(root);
-  return rec !== null && rec.pid === pid && Number.isFinite(rec.port) && rec.port === port && !!rec.repoPath && (0, import_node_path23.resolve)(rec.repoPath) === (0, import_node_path23.resolve)(root);
+  return rec !== null && rec.pid === pid && Number.isFinite(rec.port) && rec.port === port && !!rec.repoPath && (0, import_node_path24.resolve)(rec.repoPath) === (0, import_node_path24.resolve)(root);
 }
 async function cleanupSpawnedRecord(root) {
   try {
-    await unlinkAsync((0, import_node_path23.join)(root, HORUS_DIR, SPAWNED_HOST_FILE2));
+    await unlinkAsync((0, import_node_path24.join)(root, HORUS_DIR, SPAWNED_HOST_FILE2));
   } catch {
   }
 }
@@ -122710,8 +123210,8 @@ async function runProvidersDoctorCommand(opts) {
 
 // ../../packages/cli/src/commands/generate-config.ts
 init_cjs_shims();
-var import_node_fs21 = require("fs");
-var import_node_path24 = require("path");
+var import_node_fs22 = require("fs");
+var import_node_path25 = require("path");
 var import_picocolors49 = __toESM(require_picocolors(), 1);
 function configTemplate(name2, repoPath) {
   return `export default {
@@ -122760,17 +123260,17 @@ async function runGenerateConfig(opts) {
   const defaults2 = localConfigPath2 != null ? projectDefaults(localConfigPath2) : null;
   const hasLocalConfig = defaults2 != null;
   const defaultOut = hasLocalConfig ? "horus.config.example.js" : "horus.config.js";
-  const outPath = (0, import_node_path24.resolve)(cwd, opts.out ?? defaultOut);
+  const outPath = (0, import_node_path25.resolve)(cwd, opts.out ?? defaultOut);
   const name2 = opts.name ?? defaults2?.name ?? "my-project";
   const repoPath = opts.repo ?? defaults2?.repoPath ?? `/path/to/${name2}`;
-  if ((0, import_node_fs21.existsSync)(outPath) && !opts.force) {
+  if ((0, import_node_fs22.existsSync)(outPath) && !opts.force) {
     log(`${import_picocolors49.default.red("\u2717")} ${outPath} already exists`);
     log(import_picocolors49.default.dim("  pass --force to overwrite"));
     return 1;
   }
   try {
-    (0, import_node_fs21.mkdirSync)((0, import_node_path24.dirname)(outPath), { recursive: true });
-    (0, import_node_fs21.writeFileSync)(outPath, configTemplate(name2, repoPath), "utf8");
+    (0, import_node_fs22.mkdirSync)((0, import_node_path25.dirname)(outPath), { recursive: true });
+    (0, import_node_fs22.writeFileSync)(outPath, configTemplate(name2, repoPath), "utf8");
   } catch (err2) {
     log(`${import_picocolors49.default.red("\u2717")} Could not write ${outPath}: ${err2.message}`);
     return 1;
@@ -123080,9 +123580,9 @@ async function runReadiness(opts) {
 
 // ../../packages/cli/src/commands/skill.ts
 init_cjs_shims();
-var import_node_fs22 = require("fs");
-var import_node_path25 = require("path");
-var import_node_os8 = require("os");
+var import_node_fs23 = require("fs");
+var import_node_path26 = require("path");
+var import_node_os9 = require("os");
 var import_promises3 = require("readline/promises");
 var import_picocolors51 = __toESM(require_picocolors(), 1);
 var SUPPORTED_TARGETS = ["claude", "codex", "gemini", "cursor", "generic"];
@@ -123090,23 +123590,23 @@ function isValidTarget(target) {
   return SUPPORTED_TARGETS.includes(target);
 }
 function getLegacyClaudeSkillPath(opts) {
-  const base2 = opts.global ? (0, import_node_os8.homedir)() : opts.cwd ?? process.cwd();
-  return (0, import_node_path25.join)(base2, ".claude", "skills", "horus.md");
+  const base2 = opts.global ? (0, import_node_os9.homedir)() : opts.cwd ?? process.cwd();
+  return (0, import_node_path26.join)(base2, ".claude", "skills", "horus.md");
 }
 function getSkillInstallPath(target, opts) {
-  const base2 = opts.global ? (0, import_node_os8.homedir)() : opts.cwd ?? process.cwd();
+  const base2 = opts.global ? (0, import_node_os9.homedir)() : opts.cwd ?? process.cwd();
   switch (target) {
     case "claude":
-      return (0, import_node_path25.join)(base2, ".claude", "skills", "horus", "SKILL.md");
+      return (0, import_node_path26.join)(base2, ".claude", "skills", "horus", "SKILL.md");
     case "gemini":
-      return opts.global ? (0, import_node_path25.join)(base2, ".gemini", "GEMINI.md") : (0, import_node_path25.join)(base2, "GEMINI.md");
+      return opts.global ? (0, import_node_path26.join)(base2, ".gemini", "GEMINI.md") : (0, import_node_path26.join)(base2, "GEMINI.md");
     case "cursor":
-      return opts.global ? (0, import_node_path25.join)(base2, ".cursorrules") : (0, import_node_path25.join)(base2, ".cursor", "rules", "horus.mdc");
+      return opts.global ? (0, import_node_path26.join)(base2, ".cursorrules") : (0, import_node_path26.join)(base2, ".cursor", "rules", "horus.mdc");
     case "codex":
-      return opts.global ? (0, import_node_path25.join)(base2, ".codex", "AGENTS.md") : (0, import_node_path25.join)(base2, "AGENTS.md");
+      return opts.global ? (0, import_node_path26.join)(base2, ".codex", "AGENTS.md") : (0, import_node_path26.join)(base2, "AGENTS.md");
     case "generic":
     default:
-      return (0, import_node_path25.join)(base2, ".horus", "skills", `horus-${target}.md`);
+      return (0, import_node_path26.join)(base2, ".horus", "skills", `horus-${target}.md`);
   }
 }
 var BASE_SKILL = `# Horus Grounded Investigation Skill
@@ -123431,7 +123931,7 @@ async function runSkillInstall(target, opts) {
   const content = generateSkillContent(target);
   if (target === "claude") {
     const legacyPath = getLegacyClaudeSkillPath({ global: opts.global, cwd: opts.cwd });
-    if ((0, import_node_fs22.existsSync)(legacyPath)) {
+    if ((0, import_node_fs23.existsSync)(legacyPath)) {
       if (!opts.force) {
         const confirmed = await (opts.confirm ?? confirm)(
           `Found old flat skill file at ${legacyPath}. Replace it with the new directory layout?`
@@ -123443,7 +123943,7 @@ async function runSkillInstall(target, opts) {
         }
       }
       try {
-        (0, import_node_fs22.rmSync)(legacyPath);
+        (0, import_node_fs23.rmSync)(legacyPath);
         log(`${import_picocolors51.default.yellow("!")} Replaced old flat skill file: ${legacyPath}`);
       } catch (err2) {
         log(`${import_picocolors51.default.red("\u2717")} Could not remove legacy skill file ${legacyPath}: ${err2.message}`);
@@ -123451,14 +123951,14 @@ async function runSkillInstall(target, opts) {
       }
     }
   }
-  if ((0, import_node_fs22.existsSync)(outPath) && !opts.force) {
+  if ((0, import_node_fs23.existsSync)(outPath) && !opts.force) {
     log(`${import_picocolors51.default.red("\u2717")} ${outPath} already exists`);
     log(import_picocolors51.default.dim("  pass --force to overwrite"));
     return 1;
   }
   try {
-    (0, import_node_fs22.mkdirSync)((0, import_node_path25.dirname)(outPath), { recursive: true });
-    (0, import_node_fs22.writeFileSync)(outPath, content, "utf8");
+    (0, import_node_fs23.mkdirSync)((0, import_node_path26.dirname)(outPath), { recursive: true });
+    (0, import_node_fs23.writeFileSync)(outPath, content, "utf8");
   } catch (err2) {
     log(`${import_picocolors51.default.red("\u2717")} Could not write ${outPath}: ${err2.message}`);
     return 1;
@@ -124199,251 +124699,8 @@ function installCommandTelemetry(program2) {
 // ../../packages/cli/src/commands/eval.ts
 init_cjs_shims();
 var import_promises5 = require("fs/promises");
-var import_node_path26 = require("path");
+var import_node_path27 = require("path");
 var import_picocolors56 = __toESM(require_picocolors(), 1);
-
-// ../../packages/eval/src/index.ts
-init_cjs_shims();
-
-// ../../packages/eval/src/types.ts
-init_cjs_shims();
-var CORPUS_VERSION = "v1";
-
-// ../../packages/eval/src/corpus.ts
-init_cjs_shims();
-function toUsableReport(blob) {
-  if (blob === null || typeof blob !== "object") return null;
-  const r = blob;
-  if (!Array.isArray(r.suspectedCauses)) return null;
-  const seeds = Array.isArray(r.seeds) ? r.seeds.map((s5) => s5 && typeof s5 === "object" && "name" in s5 ? String(s5.name) : "").filter(Boolean) : [];
-  return {
-    summary: typeof r.summary === "string" ? r.summary : "",
-    confidence: typeof r.confidence === "number" && Number.isFinite(r.confidence) ? r.confidence : 0,
-    seeds,
-    causes: r.suspectedCauses
-  };
-}
-function pickHeadlineCause(causes) {
-  let best = null;
-  for (const c4 of causes) {
-    if (best === null || c4.finalScore > best.finalScore || c4.finalScore === best.finalScore && c4.id < best.id) {
-      best = c4;
-    }
-  }
-  return best;
-}
-function flattenFactors(cause) {
-  const sums = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const e of cause.explanations ?? []) {
-    sums.set(e.factor, (sums.get(e.factor) ?? 0) + e.delta);
-  }
-  return [...sums.entries()].map(([factor, delta]) => ({ factor, delta })).sort((a2, b5) => a2.factor < b5.factor ? -1 : a2.factor > b5.factor ? 1 : 0);
-}
-function projectHeadline(cause) {
-  return {
-    id: cause.id,
-    category: cause.category,
-    finalScore: cause.finalScore,
-    confidence: cause.confidence,
-    band: cause.band,
-    sourceEvidenceIds: [...cause.sourceEvidenceIds ?? []].sort(),
-    factors: flattenFactors(cause)
-  };
-}
-function buildCorpus(labels, resolveReport) {
-  const current = dedupeToCurrentVerdict(labels);
-  const evaluated = current.length;
-  const rows = [];
-  const quarantined = [];
-  const unjoinable = [];
-  for (const label of current) {
-    if (label.investigationId === null) {
-      unjoinable.push({ investigationId: null, reason: "null-investigation" });
-      continue;
-    }
-    if (!isOutcomeResolved(label.resolved) || !isOutcomeSource(label.source)) {
-      quarantined.push({
-        investigationId: label.investigationId,
-        resolved: String(label.resolved),
-        source: String(label.source),
-        reason: !isOutcomeResolved(label.resolved) ? `invalid resolved "${String(label.resolved)}"` : `invalid source "${String(label.source)}"`
-      });
-      continue;
-    }
-    const blob = resolveReport(label.investigationId);
-    if (blob === null || blob === void 0) {
-      unjoinable.push({ investigationId: label.investigationId, reason: "missing-report" });
-      continue;
-    }
-    const report = toUsableReport(blob);
-    if (report === null) {
-      unjoinable.push({ investigationId: label.investigationId, reason: "legacy-report" });
-      continue;
-    }
-    const isConfirm = label.source === "confirm";
-    const headline = pickHeadlineCause(report.causes);
-    rows.push({
-      investigationId: label.investigationId,
-      project: label.project,
-      at: label.at instanceof Date ? label.at.toISOString() : String(label.at),
-      target: label.resolved,
-      source: label.source,
-      weak: isConfirm,
-      confirmedCause: isConfirm ? null : label.confirmedCause ?? null,
-      summary: report.summary,
-      reportConfidence: report.confidence,
-      seeds: report.seeds,
-      causeCount: report.causes.length,
-      headlineCause: headline ? projectHeadline(headline) : null
-    });
-  }
-  const classBalance = { yes: 0, partly: 0, no: 0 };
-  const bySource = { feedback: 0, confirm: 0 };
-  for (const r of rows) {
-    classBalance[r.target] += 1;
-    bySource[r.source] += 1;
-  }
-  return { rows, evaluated, quarantined, unjoinable, classBalance, bySource };
-}
-function corpusFilename(version3 = CORPUS_VERSION) {
-  return `corpus-${version3}.jsonl`;
-}
-function sortRows(rows) {
-  return [...rows].sort((a2, b5) => {
-    if (a2.investigationId !== b5.investigationId) return a2.investigationId < b5.investigationId ? -1 : 1;
-    if (a2.at !== b5.at) return a2.at < b5.at ? -1 : 1;
-    return 0;
-  });
-}
-function fnv1a(s5) {
-  let h3 = 2166136261;
-  for (let i3 = 0; i3 < s5.length; i3++) {
-    h3 ^= s5.charCodeAt(i3);
-    h3 = Math.imul(h3, 16777619);
-  }
-  return h3 >>> 0;
-}
-function holdoutSplit(rows, holdoutPct = 20) {
-  const train = [];
-  const holdout = [];
-  for (const r of rows) {
-    if (fnv1a(r.investigationId) % 100 < holdoutPct) holdout.push(r.investigationId);
-    else train.push(r.investigationId);
-  }
-  train.sort();
-  holdout.sort();
-  return { holdoutPct, train, holdout };
-}
-function serializeCorpus(build, version3 = CORPUS_VERSION) {
-  const sorted = sortRows(build.rows);
-  const jsonl = sorted.map((r) => JSON.stringify(r)).join("\n") + (sorted.length > 0 ? "\n" : "");
-  const manifest = {
-    version: version3,
-    generatedAt: null,
-    rows: sorted.length,
-    evaluated: build.evaluated,
-    quarantined: build.quarantined.length,
-    unjoinable: build.unjoinable.length,
-    classBalance: build.classBalance,
-    bySource: build.bySource,
-    holdout: holdoutSplit(sorted)
-  };
-  return { filename: corpusFilename(version3), jsonl, manifest };
-}
-
-// ../../packages/eval/src/baseline.ts
-init_cjs_shims();
-function computeBaseline(labels) {
-  const summary = summarizeOutcomeLabels(labels);
-  const byProjectMap = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const l2 of labels) {
-    const key = l2.project ?? null;
-    const arr = byProjectMap.get(key);
-    if (arr) arr.push(l2);
-    else byProjectMap.set(key, [l2]);
-  }
-  const byProject = [...byProjectMap.entries()].map(([project, slice]) => {
-    const s5 = summarizeOutcomeLabels(slice);
-    return {
-      project,
-      n: s5.evaluated,
-      strictHitRate: s5.accuracy,
-      weightedHitRate: s5.weightedScore
-    };
-  }).sort((a2, b5) => {
-    if (a2.project === b5.project) return 0;
-    if (a2.project === null) return 1;
-    if (b5.project === null) return -1;
-    return a2.project < b5.project ? -1 : 1;
-  });
-  return {
-    n: summary.evaluated,
-    strictHitRate: summary.accuracy,
-    weightedHitRate: summary.weightedScore,
-    classBalance: summary.counts,
-    bySource: summary.bySource,
-    byProject
-  };
-}
-function mean(xs) {
-  if (xs.length === 0) return 0;
-  return xs.reduce((a2, b5) => a2 + b5, 0) / xs.length;
-}
-function variance(xs, m5) {
-  if (xs.length === 0) return 0;
-  return xs.reduce((a2, b5) => a2 + (b5 - m5) * (b5 - m5), 0) / xs.length;
-}
-function featureSeparation(rows) {
-  const usable = rows.filter(
-    (r) => !r.weak && r.headlineCause !== null && (r.target === "yes" || r.target === "no")
-  );
-  const factorSet = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set();
-  for (const r of usable) {
-    for (const f5 of r.headlineCause.factors) factorSet.add(f5.factor);
-  }
-  const factors = [...factorSet].sort();
-  const out2 = factors.map((factor) => {
-    const yes = [];
-    const no = [];
-    for (const r of usable) {
-      const f5 = r.headlineCause.factors.find((x4) => x4.factor === factor);
-      const delta = f5 ? f5.delta : 0;
-      if (r.target === "yes") yes.push(delta);
-      else no.push(delta);
-    }
-    const meanYes = mean(yes);
-    const meanNo = mean(no);
-    const varYes = variance(yes, meanYes);
-    const varNo = variance(no, meanNo);
-    const separation = meanYes - meanNo;
-    const all = yes.concat(no);
-    const overallMean = mean(all);
-    const pooledVar = variance(all, overallMean);
-    const pooledStd = Math.sqrt(pooledVar);
-    const effectSize = pooledStd === 0 ? 0 : separation / pooledStd;
-    const cv = overallMean === 0 ? 0 : pooledStd / Math.abs(overallMean);
-    return {
-      factor,
-      nYes: yes.length,
-      nNo: no.length,
-      meanYes,
-      meanNo,
-      varYes,
-      varNo,
-      separation,
-      effectSize,
-      cv
-    };
-  });
-  out2.sort((a2, b5) => {
-    const d3 = Math.abs(b5.effectSize) - Math.abs(a2.effectSize);
-    if (d3 !== 0) return d3;
-    return a2.factor < b5.factor ? -1 : a2.factor > b5.factor ? 1 : 0;
-  });
-  return { evaluated: usable.length, factors: out2 };
-}
-
-// ../../packages/cli/src/commands/eval.ts
 function resolveProject2(config2, repo) {
   let project;
   try {
@@ -124492,7 +124749,7 @@ async function runEvalBuild(opts) {
     const project = resolveProject2(config2, opts.repo);
     if (!project) return 1;
     const version3 = opts.version ?? CORPUS_VERSION;
-    const outDir = opts.out ? (0, import_node_path26.isAbsolute)(opts.out) ? opts.out : (0, import_node_path26.resolve)(process.cwd(), opts.out) : (0, import_node_path26.join)(process.cwd(), ".horus", "eval");
+    const outDir = opts.out ? (0, import_node_path27.isAbsolute)(opts.out) ? opts.out : (0, import_node_path27.resolve)(process.cwd(), opts.out) : (0, import_node_path27.join)(process.cwd(), ".horus", "eval");
     const { db, sql: sql2 } = await openDb(config2.database.url);
     try {
       const labels = await listOutcomeLabels(db, {
@@ -124508,8 +124765,8 @@ async function runEvalBuild(opts) {
       const build = buildCorpus(labels, resolveReport);
       const artifact = serializeCorpus(build, version3);
       await (0, import_promises5.mkdir)(outDir, { recursive: true });
-      const corpusPath = (0, import_node_path26.join)(outDir, artifact.filename);
-      const manifestPath = (0, import_node_path26.join)(outDir, `corpus-${version3}.manifest.json`);
+      const corpusPath = (0, import_node_path27.join)(outDir, artifact.filename);
+      const manifestPath = (0, import_node_path27.join)(outDir, `corpus-${version3}.manifest.json`);
       const manifest = { ...artifact.manifest, generatedAt: (/* @__PURE__ */ new Date()).toISOString(), project };
       await (0, import_promises5.writeFile)(corpusPath, artifact.jsonl, "utf8");
       await (0, import_promises5.writeFile)(manifestPath, JSON.stringify(manifest, null, 2) + "\n", "utf8");
@@ -124564,7 +124821,7 @@ async function runEvalBaseline(opts) {
       if (opts.json) {
         console.log(JSON.stringify({ project, baseline, separation }, null, 2));
       } else {
-        const pct = (n4) => `${(n4 * 100).toFixed(0)}%`;
+        const pct2 = (n4) => `${(n4 * 100).toFixed(0)}%`;
         console.log(import_picocolors56.default.bold(`Eval baseline \u2014 ${project}`));
         if (baseline.n === 0) {
           console.log(
@@ -124574,7 +124831,7 @@ async function runEvalBaseline(opts) {
           );
         } else {
           console.log(
-            `  Strict hit-rate: ${import_picocolors56.default.green(pct(baseline.strictHitRate))} ` + import_picocolors56.default.dim(`(weighted ${pct(baseline.weightedHitRate)}) over ${baseline.n} investigation(s)`)
+            `  Strict hit-rate: ${import_picocolors56.default.green(pct2(baseline.strictHitRate))} ` + import_picocolors56.default.dim(`(weighted ${pct2(baseline.weightedHitRate)}) over ${baseline.n} investigation(s)`)
           );
           console.log(
             `  Class balance: ${import_picocolors56.default.green(`${baseline.classBalance.yes} yes`)}, ${import_picocolors56.default.yellow(`${baseline.classBalance.partly} partly`)}, ${import_picocolors56.default.red(`${baseline.classBalance.no} no`)} \xB7 ` + import_picocolors56.default.dim(`source: ${baseline.bySource.feedback} feedback, ${baseline.bySource.confirm} confirm`)
@@ -124607,12 +124864,120 @@ async function runEvalBaseline(opts) {
   }
 }
 
-// ../../packages/cli/src/lib/report-crash.ts
+// ../../packages/cli/src/commands/train.ts
 init_cjs_shims();
+var import_promises6 = require("fs/promises");
+var import_node_path28 = require("path");
+var import_node_os10 = require("os");
 var import_picocolors57 = __toESM(require_picocolors(), 1);
+var RERANKER_MODEL_PATH = (0, import_node_path28.join)((0, import_node_os10.homedir)(), ".horus", "reranker.json");
+function candidatesFromReport(blob) {
+  if (blob === null || typeof blob !== "object") return null;
+  const causes = blob.suspectedCauses;
+  if (!Array.isArray(causes)) return null;
+  return causes;
+}
+function pct(n4) {
+  return `${(n4 * 100).toFixed(1)}%`;
+}
+async function runTrain(opts) {
+  let source;
+  if (opts.source !== void 0) {
+    if (!isOutcomeSource(opts.source)) {
+      console.error(import_picocolors57.default.red(`Unknown --source "${opts.source}" (one of: feedback, confirm).`));
+      return 1;
+    }
+    source = opts.source;
+  }
+  let since;
+  if (opts.days !== void 0) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(opts.days) || opts.days <= 0) {
+      console.error(import_picocolors57.default.red("--days must be a positive number."));
+      return 1;
+    }
+    since = new Date(Date.now() - opts.days * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1e3);
+  }
+  let investigations2;
+  try {
+    const config2 = await loadConfig(opts.config);
+    const { db, sql: sql2 } = await openDb(config2.database.url);
+    try {
+      const labels = await listOutcomeLabels(db, {
+        ...source ? { source } : {},
+        ...since ? { since } : {},
+        ...opts.limit ? { limit: opts.limit } : {}
+      });
+      const current = dedupeToCurrentVerdict(labels);
+      investigations2 = [];
+      for (const label of current) {
+        if (label.investigationId === null) continue;
+        if (!isOutcomeResolved(label.resolved) || !isOutcomeSource(label.source)) continue;
+        const inv = await getInvestigation(db, label.investigationId);
+        const candidates = candidatesFromReport(inv?.report ?? null);
+        if (candidates === null) continue;
+        const isConfirm = label.source === "confirm";
+        investigations2.push({
+          investigationId: label.investigationId,
+          target: label.resolved,
+          // confirm's confirmedCause is Horus's own summary (circular) — drop it, like the corpus.
+          confirmedCause: isConfirm ? null : label.confirmedCause ?? null,
+          candidates
+        });
+      }
+    } finally {
+      await sql2.end();
+    }
+  } catch (err2) {
+    console.error(import_picocolors57.default.red(`Could not read the local corpus: ${err2.message}`));
+    return 1;
+  }
+  const split = holdoutSplit(investigations2);
+  const result = trainReranker(investigations2, new Set(split.holdout));
+  if (!result.ok) {
+    if (result.reason === "insufficient-corpus") {
+      console.log(
+        import_picocolors57.default.yellow(
+          `Not enough labeled investigations to train yet (have ${result.labeledInvestigations} with a known-correct cause; need \u2265${MIN_TRAIN_INVESTIGATIONS}).`
+        )
+      );
+      console.log(import_picocolors57.default.dim("  Keep labeling outcomes with `horus feedback` \u2014 the reranker trains once the corpus is large enough."));
+    } else {
+      console.log(import_picocolors57.default.yellow(`Cannot train a meaningful model yet: ${result.detail}.`));
+    }
+    return 0;
+  }
+  const { baselineHitRate, rerankedHitRate, delta, n: n4 } = result.holdout;
+  console.log(import_picocolors57.default.bold("\nReranker training (local, per-tenant)\n"));
+  console.log(`  Holdout investigations:  ${n4}`);
+  console.log(`  Baseline top-1 hit-rate: ${pct(baselineHitRate)}`);
+  console.log(`  Reranked top-1 hit-rate: ${pct(rerankedHitRate)}`);
+  console.log(`  Delta:                   ${delta >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${pct(delta)}`);
+  console.log("");
+  if (delta <= 0) {
+    console.log(import_picocolors57.default.yellow("  The reranker did NOT beat the deterministic baseline \u2014 not saving a model."));
+    console.log(import_picocolors57.default.dim("  Horus stays on its hand-tuned ranking. Re-run as more labels accumulate."));
+    return 0;
+  }
+  try {
+    await (0, import_promises6.mkdir)((0, import_node_path28.join)((0, import_node_os10.homedir)(), ".horus"), { recursive: true });
+    const { ok: _ok, ...model } = result;
+    void _ok;
+    await (0, import_promises6.writeFile)(RERANKER_MODEL_PATH, JSON.stringify(model, null, 2) + "\n", "utf8");
+  } catch (err2) {
+    console.error(import_picocolors57.default.red(`Trained, but could not write the model: ${err2.message}`));
+    return 1;
+  }
+  console.log(import_picocolors57.default.green(`  \u2713 Reranker beats baseline by +${pct(delta)} \u2014 saved to ${RERANKER_MODEL_PATH}`));
+  console.log(import_picocolors57.default.dim("  It ships OFF by default. Enable it with `HORUS_RERANK=1 horus investigate \u2026`."));
+  return 0;
+}
+
+// ../../packages/cli/src/lib/report-crash.ts
+init_cjs_shims();
+var import_picocolors58 = __toESM(require_picocolors(), 1);
 function reportCrash(err2, log = console.error) {
   log(err2);
-  log(import_picocolors57.default.dim("\n  Looks like a Horus bug or a missing capability? Report it:  horus report"));
+  log(import_picocolors58.default.dim("\n  Looks like a Horus bug or a missing capability? Report it:  horus report"));
 }
 
 // ../../packages/cli/src/index.ts
@@ -124824,6 +125189,16 @@ Examples:
       process.exitCode = await runEvalBaseline(opts);
     }
   );
+  program2.command("train").description("Fit the local, per-tenant reranker over your outcome-label corpus (off until it beats baseline)").option("-c, --config <path>", "path to horus.config.ts").option("--source <source>", "filter to one signal source: feedback | confirm").option("--days <n>", "only train on labels from the last N days", (v4) => Number(v4)).option("--limit <n>", "max labels to scan", (v4) => Number(v4)).addHelpText(
+    "after",
+    `
+The reranker is LOCAL and per-tenant: your corpus never leaves this machine. It only REORDERS
+candidate causes among those that already clear Horus's confidence gates \u2014 it never changes a
+score, a confidence, or a verdict. It ships OFF; once trained, enable with:
+  HORUS_RERANK=1 horus investigate "<hint>"`
+  ).action(async (opts) => {
+    process.exitCode = await runTrain(opts);
+  });
   program2.command("mcp").description("Run the Horus MCP server (stdio) \u2014 exposes the local project-knowledge index to agents").action(async () => {
     process.exitCode = await runMcpServer();
   });

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@merittdev/horus",
-  "version": "0.13.2",
+  "version": "0.14.0",
   "description": "Local-first, source-aware production-incident investigation engine",
   "type": "module",
   "bin": {