@lucern/confidence 1.0.36 → 1.0.38

package/dist/v1/operations/temporalDecay.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
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Math.max(0, belief) : 0;\n  const d = Number.isFinite(disbelief) ? Math.max(0, disbelief) : 0;\n  const u = Number.isFinite(uncertainty) ? Math.max(0, uncertainty) : 0;\n  const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n  const sum = b + d + u;\n\n  if (sum === 0) {\n    return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a } as SLOpinion;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    b: b / sum,\n    d: d / sum,\n    u: u / sum,\n    a,\n  } as SLOpinion;\n}\n\nexport function mkOpinion(\n  belief: number,\n  disbelief: number,\n  uncertainty: number,\n  baseRate: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  return opinion(belief, disbelief, uncertainty, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function vacuous(baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(0, 0, 1, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function dogmatic(probability: number, baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  const p = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, probability));\n  return mkOpinion(p, 1 - p, 0, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function project(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  return o.b + o.a * o.u;\n}\n\nexport function confidenceLevel(o: SLOpinion): \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\" {\n  const projected = project(o);\n  if (o.u > 0.5) {\n    return \"low\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.8 && o.u < 0.2) {\n    return \"high\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.6) {\n    return \"medium\";\n  }\n  return \"low\";\n}\n\nconst VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON = 1e-12;\n\n/**\n * Associative, vacuous-identity-preserving base rate for a fused opinion.\n *\n * The legacy `(left.a + right.a) / 2` arithmetic mean was the shared root of\n * RR.7 F1 (projected-confidence non-associativity) and F2 (a vacuous opinion of\n * a different base rate was not a fusion identity): averaging always pulled the\n * fused base rate toward the other operand even when that operand carried no\n * evidence. Subjective Logic requires every opinion over the same frame to share\n * one canonical base rate, so a correct fusion never *invents* a new base rate\n * from the operands' priors. We therefore:\n *\n *  - return the informative operand's base rate when exactly one operand is\n *    vacuous (the vacuous operand contributes no prior), making `vacuous(a)` a\n *    true identity for any `a`; and\n *  - require equal base rates otherwise (the canonical-frame contract). When\n *    they coincide the result is that shared value — trivially associative.\n *\n * If two informative opinions carry genuinely different base rates they are not\n * opinions over the same frame and must be reconciled before fusion; we fall\n * back to the arithmetic mean ONLY in that ill-posed case to stay total, and the\n * property suite documents that this path is outside the order-independence\n * guarantee.\n */\nfunction fusedBaseRate(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): number {\n  const leftVacuous = 1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON;\n  const rightVacuous = 1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON;\n  if (leftVacuous && !rightVacuous) {\n    return right.a;\n  }\n  if (rightVacuous && !leftVacuous) {\n    return left.a;\n  }\n  if (Math.abs(left.a - right.a) <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return left.a;\n  }\n  return (left.a + right.a) / 2;\n}\n\nexport function cumulativeFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  const a = fusedBaseRate(left, right);\n\n  // F2: a vacuous operand is the identity element of cumulative fusion. Return\n  // the other operand verbatim (including its base rate) so fusion with the\n  // vacuous opinion is a true no-op regardless of differing priors.\n  if (1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(right.b, right.d, right.u, a);\n  }\n  if (1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(left.b, left.d, left.u, a);\n  }\n\n  // F4: dogmatic pair handled via the ε-limit of the cumulative rule rather than\n  // the standalone `(b+d)/2` shortcut. As both uncertainties shrink at the same\n  // rate, the cumulative formula's `(b_L·u_R + b_R·u_L)/k` term converges to the\n  // arithmetic mean of the masses; deriving it from the same limit the interior\n  // formula uses keeps mass-associativity intact (no special-case discontinuity).\n  if (\n    left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON &&\n    right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON\n  ) {\n    return opinion((left.b + right.b) / 2, (left.d + right.d) / 2, 0, a);\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u - left.u * right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous(a);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (left.u * right.u) / k,\n    a\n  );\n}\n\nexport function averagingFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  const a = fusedBaseRate(left, right);\n\n  // F2: vacuous identity, mirroring cumulativeFusion.\n  if (1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(right.b, right.d, right.u, a);\n  }\n  if (1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(left.b, left.d, left.u, a);\n  }\n\n  // F4: dogmatic pair via the ε-limit of the averaging rule.\n  if (\n    left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON &&\n    right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON\n  ) {\n    return opinion((left.b + right.b) / 2, (left.d + right.d) / 2, 0, a);\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous(a);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (2 * left.u * right.u) / k,\n    a\n  );\n}\n\nexport function trustDiscount(\n  sourceOpinion: SLOpinion,\n  trust: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const weight = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, Math.abs(trust)));\n  return opinion(\n    weight * sourceOpinion.b,\n    weight * sourceOpinion.d,\n    1 - weight * (sourceOpinion.b + sourceOpinion.d),\n    sourceOpinion.a\n  );\n}\n\nconst EPSILON = 1e-9;\n\nfunction childBaseRateFallback(\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number | undefined\n): number {\n  if (fallbackBaseRate !== undefined) {\n    return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, fallbackBaseRate));\n  }\n\n  if (Math.abs(ifTrue.a - ifFalse.a) <= EPSILON) {\n    return ifTrue.a;\n  }\n\n  return (ifTrue.a + ifFalse.a) / 2;\n}\n\nfunction computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n  opinionA: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number\n): number {\n  const denominator = 1 - opinionA.a * ifTrue.u - (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.u;\n\n  if (ifTrue.u + ifFalse.u < 2 - EPSILON && Math.abs(denominator) > EPSILON) {\n    const baseRate =\n      (opinionA.a * ifTrue.b + (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.b) / denominator;\n    if (baseRate >= -EPSILON && baseRate <= 1 + EPSILON) {\n      return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n    }\n  }\n\n  return fallbackBaseRate;\n}\n\nfunction safeCorrectionTerm(\n  numerator: number,\n  denominator: number\n): number | undefined {\n  if (Math.abs(denominator) <= EPSILON) {\n    return;\n  }\n\n  const value = numerator / denominator;\n  if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    return;\n  }\n\n  return Math.max(0, value);\n}\n\ninterface ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext {\n  childBaseRate: number;\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion;\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion;\n  intermediateBelief: number;\n  intermediateDisbelief: number;\n  opinionA: SLOpinion;\n  projectedAntecedent: number;\n  projectedAntecedentComplement: number;\n  projectedConditionalA: number;\n  projectedVacuousDeduction: number;\n}\n\nfunction correctionOrZero(numerator: number, denominator: number): number {\n  return safeCorrectionTerm(numerator, denominator) ?? 0;\n}\n\nfunction hasNoConditionalDeductionCorrection(\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion\n): boolean {\n  return (\n    (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d > ifFalse.d) ||\n    (ifTrue.b <= ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d)\n  );\n}\n\nfunction usesLowerVacuousBranch(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): boolean {\n  return context.projectedVacuousDeduction <= context.projectedConditionalA;\n}\n\nfunction usesLowerAntecedentBranch(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): boolean {\n  return context.projectedAntecedent <= context.opinionA.a;\n}\n\nfunction computeTrueDominantDeductionCorrection(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): number {\n  const beliefGap = context.ifTrue.b - context.ifFalse.b;\n  const disbeliefGap = context.ifFalse.d - context.ifTrue.d;\n  const lowerVacuous = usesLowerVacuousBranch(context);\n  const lowerAntecedent = usesLowerAntecedentBranch(context);\n\n  if (lowerVacuous && lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      context.opinionA.a *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b),\n      context.projectedAntecedent * context.childBaseRate\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerVacuous) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      context.opinionA.a *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d) *\n        beliefGap,\n      context.projectedAntecedentComplement *\n        context.childBaseRate *\n        disbeliefGap\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b) *\n        disbeliefGap,\n      context.projectedAntecedent * (1 - context.childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n    );\n  }\n\n  return correctionOrZero(\n    (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n      context.opinionA.u *\n      (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d),\n    context.projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - context.childBaseRate)\n  );\n}\n\nfunction computeFalseDominantDeductionCorrection(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): number {\n  const beliefGap = context.ifFalse.b - context.ifTrue.b;\n  const disbeliefGap = context.ifTrue.d - context.ifFalse.d;\n  const lowerVacuous = usesLowerVacuousBranch(context);\n  const lowerAntecedent = usesLowerAntecedentBranch(context);\n\n  if (lowerVacuous && lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d) *\n        beliefGap,\n      context.projectedAntecedent * context.childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerVacuous) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b),\n      context.projectedAntecedentComplement * context.childBaseRate\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      context.opinionA.a *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d),\n      context.projectedAntecedent * (1 - context.childBaseRate)\n    );\n  }\n\n  return correctionOrZero(\n    context.opinionA.a *\n      context.opinionA.u *\n      (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b) *\n      disbeliefGap,\n    context.projectedAntecedentComplement *\n      (1 - context.childBaseRate) *\n      beliefGap\n  );\n}\n\nfunction computeConditionalDeductionCorrection(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): number {\n  if (hasNoConditionalDeductionCorrection(context.ifTrue, context.ifFalse)) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n\n  if (\n    context.ifTrue.b > context.ifFalse.b &&\n    context.ifTrue.d <= context.ifFalse.d\n  ) {\n    return computeTrueDominantDeductionCorrection(context);\n  }\n\n  return computeFalseDominantDeductionCorrection(context);\n}\n\nexport function conditionalDeduction(\n  opinionA: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate?: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const fallbackChildBaseRate = childBaseRateFallback(\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackBaseRate\n  );\n  const childBaseRate = computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n    opinionA,\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackChildBaseRate\n  );\n  const projectedAntecedent = project(opinionA);\n  const projectedAntecedentComplement = 1 - projectedAntecedent;\n  const intermediateBelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.b +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.b +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.b * opinionA.a + ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateDisbelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.d +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.d +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.d * opinionA.a + ifFalse.d * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateUncertainty =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.u +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.u +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedVacuousDeduction =\n    ifTrue.b * opinionA.a +\n    ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a) +\n    childBaseRate * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedConditionalA =\n    ifTrue.b + childBaseRate * (1 - ifTrue.b - ifTrue.d);\n  const correction = computeConditionalDeductionCorrection({\n    childBaseRate,\n    ifFalse,\n    ifTrue,\n    intermediateBelief,\n    intermediateDisbelief,\n    opinionA,\n    projectedAntecedent,\n    projectedAntecedentComplement,\n    projectedConditionalA,\n    projectedVacuousDeduction,\n  });\n\n  return opinion(\n    intermediateBelief - childBaseRate * correction,\n    intermediateDisbelief - (1 - childBaseRate) * correction,\n    intermediateUncertainty + correction,\n    childBaseRate\n  );\n}\n\n/**\n * Abductive inference over a conditional.\n * Given an opinion on Y and conditionals P(Y|X), P(Y|~X), infer an opinion on X.\n */\nexport function conditionalAbduction(\n  opinionY: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  baseRateX: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const priorX = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRateX));\n  const probabilityY = project(opinionY);\n  const probabilityGivenTrue = project(ifTrue);\n  const probabilityGivenFalse = project(ifFalse);\n\n  const posteriorIfYDenominator =\n    probabilityGivenTrue * priorX + probabilityGivenFalse * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfY =\n    posteriorIfYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : (probabilityGivenTrue * priorX) / posteriorIfYDenominator;\n\n  const posteriorIfNotYDenominator =\n    (1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX +\n    (1 - probabilityGivenFalse) * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfNotY =\n    posteriorIfNotYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : ((1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX) / posteriorIfNotYDenominator;\n\n  const projectedX =\n    probabilityY * posteriorIfY + (1 - probabilityY) * posteriorIfNotY;\n  const uncertainty = Math.max(\n    opinionY.u * 0.5,\n    probabilityY * ifTrue.u + (1 - probabilityY) * ifFalse.u\n  );\n\n  return opinion(\n    projectedX * (1 - uncertainty),\n    (1 - projectedX) * (1 - uncertainty),\n    uncertainty,\n    priorX\n  );\n}\n\nexport function negate(o: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(o.d, o.b, o.u, 1 - o.a);\n}\n\nexport function constraintFusion(\n  left: SLOpinion,\n  right: SLOpinion,\n  mode: \"pressure\" | \"redistribute\" = \"pressure\"\n): { o1: SLOpinion; o2: SLOpinion } {\n  if (mode === \"redistribute\") {\n    const leftProjected = project(left);\n    const rightProjected = project(right);\n    const total = leftProjected + rightProjected;\n\n    if (total <= 1) {\n      return { o1: left, o2: right };\n    }\n\n    const scale = 1 / total;\n    return {\n      o1: opinion(\n        left.b * scale,\n        left.d + left.b * (1 - scale),\n        left.u,\n        left.a\n      ),\n      o2: opinion(\n        right.b * scale,\n        right.d + right.b * (1 - scale),\n        right.u,\n        right.a\n      ),\n    };\n  }\n\n  const pressureLeft = right.b * 0.5;\n  const pressureRight = left.b * 0.5;\n\n  return {\n    o1: opinion(\n      left.b - pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.d + pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.u,\n      left.a\n    ),\n    o2: opinion(\n      right.b - pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.d + pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.u,\n      right.a\n    ),\n  };\n}\n\nexport function evidenceBalance(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  const total = o.b + o.d;\n  if (total === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  return (o.b - o.d) / total;\n}\n\nexport function areTensioned(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): boolean {\n  return (\n    project(left) > 0.5 &&\n    project(right) > 0.5 &&\n    (left.d > 0.2 || right.d > 0.2)\n  );\n}\n\nexport function informationGain(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  if (o.u === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  if (o.u === 1) {\n    return 1;\n  }\n  return o.u * (1 - Math.abs(o.b - o.d));\n}\n","// biome-ignore-all lint/style/useFilenamingConvention: Published @lucern/confidence temporalDecay subpath; rename needs an export-map migration.\n\n/**\n * LKC-3 decision note:\n * 1. Lucern already persists posterior opinions in `beliefConfidence`.\n * 2. It does not persist a full per-observation Beta event stream on every path.\n * 3. Reweighting raw observations would therefore force new schema + replay logic.\n * 4. This operator decays the formed opinion instead of reconstructing old evidence.\n * 5. The decay is exponential over epistemic age with a configurable half-life.\n * 6. Belief/disbelief mass shrinks over time and returns to uncertainty.\n * 7. Base rate `a` stays fixed, so the projection moves back toward the prior.\n * 8. The reference clock is \"when this posterior became knowable\" (`assessedAt`).\n * 9. That makes Invariant 9 operational with the smallest implementation surface.\n * 10. Per-observation decay can be layered later without breaking this API.\n */\n\nimport type { Opinion } from \"../types\";\nimport { mkOpinion, trustDiscount } from \"./subjectiveLogic\";\n\nexport const DEFAULT_TEMPORAL_DECAY_HALF_LIFE_MS = 90 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;\n\nexport interface TemporalDecayParams {\n  halfLifeMs?: number;\n  referenceTime: Date | number;\n}\n\nfunction toEpochMs(value: Date | number): number | undefined {\n  if (typeof value === \"number\" && Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    return value;\n  }\n\n  if (value instanceof Date) {\n    const epochMs = value.getTime();\n    return Number.isFinite(epochMs) ? epochMs : undefined;\n  }\n\n  return;\n}\n\nfunction normalizeHalfLifeMs(halfLifeMs?: number): number {\n  if (halfLifeMs === undefined || !Number.isFinite(halfLifeMs)) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n\n  return Math.max(0, halfLifeMs);\n}\n\nexport function temporalDecay(\n  sourceOpinion: Opinion,\n  now: Date | number,\n  decayParams: TemporalDecayParams\n): Opinion {\n  const halfLifeMs = normalizeHalfLifeMs(decayParams.halfLifeMs);\n  if (halfLifeMs === 0) {\n    return { ...sourceOpinion };\n  }\n\n  const nowMs = toEpochMs(now);\n  const referenceTimeMs = toEpochMs(decayParams.referenceTime);\n  if (nowMs === undefined || referenceTimeMs === undefined) {\n    return { ...sourceOpinion };\n  }\n\n  const ageMs = Math.max(0, nowMs - referenceTimeMs);\n  if (ageMs === 0) {\n    return { ...sourceOpinion };\n  }\n\n  const retainedEvidenceWeight = 0.5 ** (ageMs / halfLifeMs);\n  return trustDiscount(\n    mkOpinion(\n      sourceOpinion.b,\n      sourceOpinion.d,\n      sourceOpinion.u,\n      sourceOpinion.a\n    ),\n    retainedEvidenceWeight\n  );\n}\n"]}

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