@lucern/confidence 1.0.29 → 1.0.30

package/dist/v1/operations/dynamics/decay.js

@@ -131,6 +131,102 @@ function lifecycleMultiplier(status) {
   }
   return 1;
 }
+function resolveLifecycleRescore(context) {
+  if (context.isOverdue && context.lifecycleStatus === "assumption") {
+    return {
+      priority: "critical",
+      reason: `Untested assumption is stale (${Math.round(context.decayState.ageDays)}d) \u2014 validate or supersede`
+    };
+  }
+  if (context.isOverdue && context.lifecycleStatus === "hypothesis" || context.lifecycleStatus === "hypothesis" && context.daysUntilRescore < 7) {
+    return {
+      priority: "high",
+      reason: `Hypothesis aging without validation (${Math.round(context.decayState.ageDays)}d) \u2014 run/finish sprint testing`
+    };
+  }
+}
+function resolveDeadlineRescore(context) {
+  const urgency = context.decayState.urgency;
+  if (urgency?.isOverdue) {
+    return {
+      priority: "critical",
+      reason: `Prediction deadline passed ${Math.abs(urgency.daysToDeadline)}d ago \u2014 validate or archive`
+    };
+  }
+  if (urgency?.urgencyTier.label === "critical") {
+    return {
+      priority: "critical",
+      reason: `Deadline in ${urgency.daysToDeadline}d \u2014 needs immediate rescoring`
+    };
+  }
+  if (urgency?.urgencyTier.label === "imminent") {
+    return {
+      priority: "high",
+      reason: `Deadline in ${urgency.daysToDeadline}d \u2014 weekly rescoring required`
+    };
+  }
+}
+function resolveStalenessRescore(context) {
+  if (context.isOverdue && context.decayState.baseTier.label === "expired") {
+    return {
+      priority: "critical",
+      reason: `Not scored in ${Math.round(context.decayState.ageDays)}d \u2014 confidence severely degraded`
+    };
+  }
+  if (context.isOverdue && context.decayState.baseTier.label === "stale") {
+    return {
+      priority: "high",
+      reason: `Stale (${Math.round(context.decayState.ageDays)}d since scoring) \u2014 evidence update required`
+    };
+  }
+  if (context.isOverdue) {
+    return {
+      priority: "high",
+      reason: `Rescore overdue by ${Math.abs(Math.round(context.daysUntilRescore))}d`
+    };
+  }
+}
+function resolveRoutineRescore(context) {
+  if (context.temporalNature === "forecast" && context.daysUntilRescore < 7) {
+    return {
+      priority: "medium",
+      reason: `Forecast belief \u2014 next rescore due in ${Math.round(context.daysUntilRescore)}d`
+    };
+  }
+  if (context.daysUntilRescore < 14) {
+    return {
+      priority: "medium",
+      reason: `Rescore due in ${Math.round(context.daysUntilRescore)}d`
+    };
+  }
+  return {
+    priority: "low",
+    reason: `On schedule \u2014 next rescore in ${Math.round(context.daysUntilRescore)}d`
+  };
+}
+function escalateHighConfidenceRescore(result, context) {
+  if ((context.confidence ?? 0) >= 0.8 && context.decayState.baseTier.label !== "fresh" && result.priority === "medium") {
+    return {
+      priority: "high",
+      reason: `High-confidence belief (${((context.confidence ?? 0) * 100).toFixed(0)}%) aging without rescore \u2014 ${result.reason}`
+    };
+  }
+  return result;
+}
+var RESCORING_RULES = [
+  resolveLifecycleRescore,
+  resolveDeadlineRescore,
+  resolveStalenessRescore
+];
+function resolveRescoringPriority(context) {
+  for (const rule of RESCORING_RULES) {
+    const result = rule(context);
+    if (result) {
+      return escalateHighConfidenceRescore(result, context);
+    }
+  }
+  return escalateHighConfidenceRescore(resolveRoutineRescore(context), context);
+}
 function computeBaseDecay(lastScoredAt) {
   const ageDays = (Date.now() - lastScoredAt) / (1e3 * 60 * 60 * 24);
   let tier = DECAY_TIERS.EXPIRED;
@@ -202,46 +298,14 @@ function getRescoringSchedule(opts) {
   );
   const daysUntilRescore = (decayState.rescoreByDate - Date.now()) / (1e3 * 60 * 60 * 24);
   const isOverdue = daysUntilRescore < 0;
-  let priority;
-  let reason;
-  if (isOverdue && lifecycleStatus === "assumption") {
-    priority = "critical";
-    reason = `Untested assumption is stale (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d) \u2014 validate or supersede`;
-  } else if (isOverdue && lifecycleStatus === "hypothesis" || lifecycleStatus === "hypothesis" && daysUntilRescore < 7) {
-    priority = "high";
-    reason = `Hypothesis aging without validation (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d) \u2014 run/finish sprint testing`;
-  } else if (decayState.urgency?.isOverdue) {
-    priority = "critical";
-    reason = `Prediction deadline passed ${Math.abs(decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline)}d ago \u2014 validate or archive`;
-  } else if (isOverdue && decayState.baseTier.label === "expired") {
-    priority = "critical";
-    reason = `Not scored in ${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d \u2014 confidence severely degraded`;
-  } else if (isOverdue && decayState.baseTier.label === "stale") {
-    priority = "high";
-    reason = `Stale (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d since scoring) \u2014 evidence update required`;
-  } else if (decayState.urgency && decayState.urgency.urgencyTier.label === "critical") {
-    priority = "critical";
-    reason = `Deadline in ${decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline}d \u2014 needs immediate rescoring`;
-  } else if (decayState.urgency && decayState.urgency.urgencyTier.label === "imminent") {
-    priority = "high";
-    reason = `Deadline in ${decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline}d \u2014 weekly rescoring required`;
-  } else if (isOverdue) {
-    priority = "high";
-    reason = `Rescore overdue by ${Math.abs(Math.round(daysUntilRescore))}d`;
-  } else if (opts.temporalNature === "forecast" && daysUntilRescore < 7) {
-    priority = "medium";
-    reason = `Forecast belief \u2014 next rescore due in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;
-  } else if (daysUntilRescore < 14) {
-    priority = "medium";
-    reason = `Rescore due in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;
-  } else {
-    priority = "low";
-    reason = `On schedule \u2014 next rescore in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;
-  }
-  if ((opts.confidence ?? 0) >= 0.8 && decayState.baseTier.label !== "fresh" && priority === "medium") {
-    priority = "high";
-    reason = `High-confidence belief (${((opts.confidence ?? 0) * 100).toFixed(0)}%) aging without rescore \u2014 ${reason}`;
-  }
+  const { priority, reason } = resolveRescoringPriority({
+    confidence: opts.confidence,
+    daysUntilRescore,
+    decayState,
+    isOverdue,
+    lifecycleStatus,
+    temporalNature: opts.temporalNature
+  });
   return {
     nextRescoreBy: decayState.rescoreByDate,
     daysUntilRescore: Math.round(daysUntilRescore),
@@ -255,7 +319,7 @@ function decay(current, daysSinceLastUpdate, halfLifeDays = 90) {
   if (daysSinceLastUpdate <= 0) {
     return current;
   }
-  const decayFactor = Math.pow(0.5, daysSinceLastUpdate / halfLifeDays);
+  const decayFactor = 0.5 ** (daysSinceLastUpdate / halfLifeDays);
   const certainty = current.b + current.d;
   const lostCertainty = certainty - certainty * decayFactor;
   return opinion(

package/dist/v1/operations/dynamics/decay.js.map

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type { SLOpinion } from \"../../types\";\n\nexport function opinion(\n  belief: number,\n  disbelief: number,\n  uncertainty: number,\n  baseRate: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const b = Number.isFinite(belief) ? Math.max(0, belief) : 0;\n  const d = Number.isFinite(disbelief) ? Math.max(0, disbelief) : 0;\n  const u = Number.isFinite(uncertainty) ? Math.max(0, uncertainty) : 0;\n  const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n  const sum = b + d + u;\n\n  if (sum === 0) {\n    return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a } as SLOpinion;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    b: b / sum,\n    d: d / sum,\n    u: u / sum,\n    a,\n  } as SLOpinion;\n}\n\nexport function mkOpinion(\n  belief: number,\n  disbelief: number,\n  uncertainty: number,\n  baseRate: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  return opinion(belief, disbelief, uncertainty, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function vacuous(baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(0, 0, 1, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function dogmatic(probability: number, baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  const p = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, probability));\n  return mkOpinion(p, 1 - p, 0, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function project(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  return o.b + o.a * o.u;\n}\n\nexport function confidenceLevel(o: SLOpinion): \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\" {\n  const projected = project(o);\n  if (o.u > 0.5) {\n    return \"low\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.8 && o.u < 0.2) {\n    return \"high\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.6) {\n    return \"medium\";\n  }\n  return \"low\";\n}\n\nconst VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON = 1e-12;\n\n/**\n * Associative, vacuous-identity-preserving base rate for a fused opinion.\n *\n * The legacy `(left.a + right.a) / 2` arithmetic mean was the shared root of\n * RR.7 F1 (projected-confidence non-associativity) and F2 (a vacuous opinion of\n * a different base rate was not a fusion identity): averaging always pulled the\n * fused base rate toward the other operand even when that operand carried no\n * evidence. Subjective Logic requires every opinion over the same frame to share\n * one canonical base rate, so a correct fusion never *invents* a new base rate\n * from the operands' priors. We therefore:\n *\n *  - return the informative operand's base rate when exactly one operand is\n *    vacuous (the vacuous operand contributes no prior), making `vacuous(a)` a\n *    true identity for any `a`; and\n *  - require equal base rates otherwise (the canonical-frame contract). When\n *    they coincide the result is that shared value — trivially associative.\n *\n * If two informative opinions carry genuinely different base rates they are not\n * opinions over the same frame and must be reconciled before fusion; we fall\n * back to the arithmetic mean ONLY in that ill-posed case to stay total, and the\n * property suite documents that this path is outside the order-independence\n * guarantee.\n */\nfunction fusedBaseRate(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): number {\n  const leftVacuous = 1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON;\n  const rightVacuous = 1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON;\n  if (leftVacuous && !rightVacuous) {\n    return right.a;\n  }\n  if (rightVacuous && !leftVacuous) {\n    return left.a;\n  }\n  if (Math.abs(left.a - right.a) <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return left.a;\n  }\n  return (left.a + right.a) / 2;\n}\n\nexport function cumulativeFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  const a = fusedBaseRate(left, right);\n\n  // F2: a vacuous operand is the identity element of cumulative fusion. Return\n  // the other operand verbatim (including its base rate) so fusion with the\n  // vacuous opinion is a true no-op regardless of differing priors.\n  if (1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(right.b, right.d, right.u, a);\n  }\n  if (1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(left.b, left.d, left.u, a);\n  }\n\n  // F4: dogmatic pair handled via the ε-limit of the cumulative rule rather than\n  // the standalone `(b+d)/2` shortcut. As both uncertainties shrink at the same\n  // rate, the cumulative formula's `(b_L·u_R + b_R·u_L)/k` term converges to the\n  // arithmetic mean of the masses; deriving it from the same limit the interior\n  // formula uses keeps mass-associativity intact (no special-case discontinuity).\n  if (left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON && right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion((left.b + right.b) / 2, (left.d + right.d) / 2, 0, a);\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u - left.u * right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous(a);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (left.u * right.u) / k,\n    a\n  );\n}\n\nexport function averagingFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  const a = fusedBaseRate(left, right);\n\n  // F2: vacuous identity, mirroring cumulativeFusion.\n  if (1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(right.b, right.d, right.u, a);\n  }\n  if (1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(left.b, left.d, left.u, a);\n  }\n\n  // F4: dogmatic pair via the ε-limit of the averaging rule.\n  if (left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON && right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion((left.b + right.b) / 2, (left.d + right.d) / 2, 0, a);\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous(a);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (2 * left.u * right.u) / k,\n    a\n  );\n}\n\nexport function trustDiscount(sourceOpinion: SLOpinion, trust: number): SLOpinion {\n  const weight = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, Math.abs(trust)));\n  return opinion(\n    weight * sourceOpinion.b,\n    weight * sourceOpinion.d,\n    1 - weight * (sourceOpinion.b + sourceOpinion.d),\n    sourceOpinion.a\n  );\n}\n\nconst EPSILON = 1e-9;\n\nfunction childBaseRateFallback(\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number | undefined\n): number {\n  if (fallbackBaseRate !== undefined) {\n    return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, fallbackBaseRate));\n  }\n\n  if (Math.abs(ifTrue.a - ifFalse.a) <= EPSILON) {\n    return ifTrue.a;\n  }\n\n  return (ifTrue.a + ifFalse.a) / 2;\n}\n\nfunction computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n  opinionA: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number\n): number {\n  const denominator =\n    1 - opinionA.a * ifTrue.u - (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.u;\n\n  if (ifTrue.u + ifFalse.u < 2 - EPSILON && Math.abs(denominator) > EPSILON) {\n    const baseRate =\n      (opinionA.a * ifTrue.b + (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.b) / denominator;\n    if (baseRate >= -EPSILON && baseRate <= 1 + EPSILON) {\n      return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n    }\n  }\n\n  return fallbackBaseRate;\n}\n\nfunction safeCorrectionTerm(\n  numerator: number,\n  denominator: number\n): number | undefined {\n  if (Math.abs(denominator) <= EPSILON) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  const value = numerator / denominator;\n  if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  return Math.max(0, value);\n}\n\nexport function conditionalDeduction(\n  opinionA: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate?: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const fallbackChildBaseRate = childBaseRateFallback(\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackBaseRate\n  );\n  const childBaseRate = computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n    opinionA,\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackChildBaseRate\n  );\n  const projectedAntecedent = project(opinionA);\n  const projectedAntecedentComplement = 1 - projectedAntecedent;\n  const intermediateBelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.b +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.b +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.b * opinionA.a + ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateDisbelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.d +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.d +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.d * opinionA.a + ifFalse.d * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateUncertainty =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.u +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.u +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedVacuousDeduction =\n    ifTrue.b * opinionA.a +\n    ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a) +\n    childBaseRate *\n      (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedConditionalA =\n    ifTrue.b + childBaseRate * (1 - ifTrue.b - ifTrue.d);\n  let correction = 0;\n\n  if (\n    (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d > ifFalse.d) ||\n    (ifTrue.b <= ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d)\n  ) {\n    correction = 0;\n  } else if (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d) {\n    const beliefGap = ifTrue.b - ifFalse.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifFalse.d - ifTrue.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) * beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  } else {\n    const beliefGap = ifFalse.b - ifTrue.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifTrue.d - ifFalse.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) *\n            beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    intermediateBelief - childBaseRate * correction,\n    intermediateDisbelief - (1 - childBaseRate) * correction,\n    intermediateUncertainty + correction,\n    childBaseRate\n  );\n}\n\n/**\n * Abductive inference over a conditional.\n * Given an opinion on Y and conditionals P(Y|X), P(Y|~X), infer an opinion on X.\n */\nexport function conditionalAbduction(\n  opinionY: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  baseRateX: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const priorX = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRateX));\n  const probabilityY = project(opinionY);\n  const probabilityGivenTrue = project(ifTrue);\n  const probabilityGivenFalse = project(ifFalse);\n\n  const posteriorIfYDenominator =\n    probabilityGivenTrue * priorX +\n    probabilityGivenFalse * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfY =\n    posteriorIfYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : (probabilityGivenTrue * priorX) / posteriorIfYDenominator;\n\n  const posteriorIfNotYDenominator =\n    (1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX +\n    (1 - probabilityGivenFalse) * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfNotY =\n    posteriorIfNotYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : ((1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX) / posteriorIfNotYDenominator;\n\n  const projectedX =\n    probabilityY * posteriorIfY + (1 - probabilityY) * posteriorIfNotY;\n  const uncertainty = Math.max(\n    opinionY.u * 0.5,\n    probabilityY * ifTrue.u + (1 - probabilityY) * ifFalse.u\n  );\n\n  return opinion(\n    projectedX * (1 - uncertainty),\n    (1 - projectedX) * (1 - uncertainty),\n    uncertainty,\n    priorX\n  );\n}\n\nexport function negate(o: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(o.d, o.b, o.u, 1 - o.a);\n}\n\nexport function constraintFusion(\n  left: SLOpinion,\n  right: SLOpinion,\n  mode: \"pressure\" | \"redistribute\" = \"pressure\"\n): { o1: SLOpinion; o2: SLOpinion } {\n  if (mode === \"redistribute\") {\n    const leftProjected = project(left);\n    const rightProjected = project(right);\n    const total = leftProjected + rightProjected;\n\n    if (total <= 1) {\n      return { o1: left, o2: right };\n    }\n\n    const scale = 1 / total;\n    return {\n      o1: opinion(\n        left.b * scale,\n        left.d + left.b * (1 - scale),\n        left.u,\n        left.a\n      ),\n      o2: opinion(\n        right.b * scale,\n        right.d + right.b * (1 - scale),\n        right.u,\n        right.a\n      ),\n    };\n  }\n\n  const pressureLeft = right.b * 0.5;\n  const pressureRight = left.b * 0.5;\n\n  return {\n    o1: opinion(\n      left.b - pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.d + pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.u,\n      left.a\n    ),\n    o2: opinion(\n      right.b - pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.d + pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.u,\n      right.a\n    ),\n  };\n}\n\nexport function evidenceBalance(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  const total = o.b + o.d;\n  if (total === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  return (o.b - o.d) / total;\n}\n\nexport function areTensioned(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): boolean {\n  return (\n    project(left) > 0.5 &&\n    project(right) > 0.5 &&\n    (left.d > 0.2 || right.d > 0.2)\n  );\n}\n\nexport function informationGain(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  if (o.u === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  if (o.u === 1) {\n    return 1;\n  }\n  return o.u * (1 - Math.abs(o.b - o.d));\n}\n","import type {\n  BeliefLifecycleBucket,\n  DeadlineUrgency,\n  DeadlineUrgencyTier,\n  DecayTier,\n  EffectiveDecay,\n  Opinion,\n  RescoringSchedule,\n} from \"../../types\";\nimport { opinion } from \"../subjectiveLogic\";\n\nexport const DECAY_TIERS: Record<string, DecayTier> = {\n  FRESH: {\n    maxAgeDays: 30,\n    weight: 1,\n    label: \"fresh\",\n    action: \"Full confidence — recently validated\",\n    rescoreInDays: 30,\n  },\n  AGING: {\n    maxAgeDays: 90,\n    weight: 0.8,\n    label: \"aging\",\n    action: \"Evidence refresh recommended\",\n    rescoreInDays: 14,\n  },\n  STALE: {\n    maxAgeDays: 180,\n    weight: 0.5,\n    label: \"stale\",\n    action: \"Evidence update required before trusting\",\n    rescoreInDays: 7,\n  },\n  EXPIRED: {\n    maxAgeDays: Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n    weight: 0.2,\n    label: \"expired\",\n    action: \"Full re-evaluation needed\",\n    rescoreInDays: 0,\n  },\n};\n\nexport const DEADLINE_URGENCY: Record<string, DeadlineUrgencyTier> = {\n  DISTANT: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 365,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 1,\n    label: \"distant\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 90,\n    action: \"Quarterly confidence check\",\n  },\n  APPROACHING: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 180,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.9,\n    label: \"approaching\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 30,\n    action: \"Monthly confidence check — conditions may be shifting\",\n  },\n  NEAR: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 90,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.75,\n    label: \"near\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 14,\n    action: \"Biweekly rescore — deadline within 3 months\",\n  },\n  IMMINENT: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 30,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.6,\n    label: \"imminent\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 7,\n    action: \"Weekly rescore — deadline within 1 month\",\n  },\n  CRITICAL: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 7,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.4,\n    label: \"critical\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 1,\n    action: \"Daily rescore — deadline THIS WEEK\",\n  },\n  OVERDUE: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.2,\n    label: \"overdue\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 0,\n    action: \"OVERDUE — must validate or archive immediately\",\n  },\n};\n\nfunction normalizeBeliefConfidence(confidence: unknown): number | null {\n  if (typeof confidence !== \"number\" || !Number.isFinite(confidence)) {\n    return null;\n  }\n  if (confidence >= 0 && confidence <= 1) {\n    return confidence;\n  }\n  if (confidence > 1 && confidence <= 100) {\n    return confidence / 100;\n  }\n  return null;\n}\n\nfunction hasResolvedPredictionOutcome(predictionMeta: unknown): boolean {\n  if (!predictionMeta || typeof predictionMeta !== \"object\") {\n    return false;\n  }\n\n  const outcome = (predictionMeta as { outcome?: unknown }).outcome;\n  return (\n    outcome === \"confirmed\" ||\n    outcome === \"disconfirmed\" ||\n    outcome === \"partial\" ||\n    outcome === \"expired\"\n  );\n}\n\nfunction resolveLifecycleBucket(args: {\n  beliefStatus?: string | null;\n  confidence?: unknown;\n  predictionMeta?: unknown;\n}): BeliefLifecycleBucket {\n  if (\n    normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) === 0 ||\n    normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) === 1 ||\n    hasResolvedPredictionOutcome(args.predictionMeta)\n  ) {\n    return \"fact\";\n  }\n\n  if (\n    args.beliefStatus === \"assumption\" ||\n    args.beliefStatus === \"hypothesis\" ||\n    args.beliefStatus === \"belief\" ||\n    args.beliefStatus === \"fact\"\n  ) {\n    if (\n      normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) !== null &&\n      (args.beliefStatus === \"assumption\" || args.beliefStatus === \"hypothesis\")\n    ) {\n      return \"belief\";\n    }\n    return args.beliefStatus;\n  }\n\n  return \"assumption\";\n}\n\nfunction lifecycleMultiplier(status: BeliefLifecycleBucket | string | null | undefined) {\n  if (status === \"assumption\") {\n    return 0.65;\n  }\n  if (status === \"hypothesis\") {\n    return 0.8;\n  }\n  return 1;\n}\n\nexport function computeBaseDecay(lastScoredAt: number): {\n  ageDays: number;\n  tier: DecayTier;\n  weight: number;\n} {\n  const ageDays = (Date.now() - lastScoredAt) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);\n  let tier = DECAY_TIERS.EXPIRED;\n\n  if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.FRESH.maxAgeDays) {\n    tier = DECAY_TIERS.FRESH;\n  } else if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.AGING.maxAgeDays) {\n    tier = DECAY_TIERS.AGING;\n  } else if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.STALE.maxAgeDays) {\n    tier = DECAY_TIERS.STALE;\n  }\n\n  return { ageDays, tier, weight: tier.weight };\n}\n\nexport function computeDeadlineUrgency(\n  expectedBy: number | null | undefined\n): DeadlineUrgency {\n  if (!expectedBy) {\n    return null;\n  }\n\n  const daysToDeadline = (expectedBy - Date.now()) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);\n  let urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.DISTANT;\n\n  if (daysToDeadline < 0) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.OVERDUE;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 7) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.CRITICAL;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 30) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.IMMINENT;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 90) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.NEAR;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 180) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.APPROACHING;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    daysToDeadline: Math.round(daysToDeadline),\n    urgencyTier,\n    urgencyMultiplier: urgencyTier.urgencyMultiplier,\n    isOverdue: daysToDeadline < 0,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function computeEffectiveDecay(\n  lastScoredAt: number,\n  expectedBy?: number | null,\n  beliefStatus?: BeliefLifecycleBucket | string | null\n): EffectiveDecay {\n  const base = computeBaseDecay(lastScoredAt);\n  const urgency = computeDeadlineUrgency(expectedBy);\n  const effectiveWeight =\n    (urgency ? base.weight * urgency.urgencyMultiplier : base.weight) *\n    lifecycleMultiplier(beliefStatus);\n\n  const urgencyRescoreDays =\n    urgency?.urgencyTier.rescoreIntervalDays ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY;\n  const rescoreInDays = Math.min(base.tier.rescoreInDays, urgencyRescoreDays);\n  const rescoreByDate = lastScoredAt + rescoreInDays * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;\n\n  let action = base.tier.action;\n  if (urgency && urgency.urgencyTier.label !== \"distant\") {\n    action = `${urgency.urgencyTier.action}. ${base.tier.action}`;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    ageDays: base.ageDays,\n    baseTier: base.tier,\n    baseWeight: base.weight,\n    urgency,\n    effectiveWeight: Math.max(0, Math.min(1, effectiveWeight)),\n    rescoreByDate,\n    rescoreInDays,\n    action,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function getRescoringSchedule(opts: {\n  lastScoredAt: number;\n  temporalNature?: \"factual\" | \"forecast\" | \"unknown\" | null;\n  expectedBy?: number | null;\n  predictionMeta?: { expectedBy?: number; outcome?: unknown } | null;\n  confidence?: number;\n  beliefStatus?: string | null;\n}): RescoringSchedule {\n  const lifecycleStatus = resolveLifecycleBucket({\n    beliefStatus: opts.beliefStatus,\n    confidence: opts.confidence,\n    predictionMeta: opts.predictionMeta,\n  });\n\n  const decayState = computeEffectiveDecay(\n    opts.lastScoredAt,\n    opts.expectedBy,\n    lifecycleStatus\n  );\n  const daysUntilRescore =\n    (decayState.rescoreByDate - Date.now()) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);\n  const isOverdue = daysUntilRescore < 0;\n\n  let priority: RescoringSchedule[\"priority\"];\n  let reason: string;\n\n  if (isOverdue && lifecycleStatus === \"assumption\") {\n    priority = \"critical\";\n    reason = `Untested assumption is stale (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d) — validate or supersede`;\n  } else if (\n    (isOverdue && lifecycleStatus === \"hypothesis\") ||\n    (lifecycleStatus === \"hypothesis\" && daysUntilRescore < 7)\n  ) {\n    priority = \"high\";\n    reason = `Hypothesis aging without validation (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d) — run/finish sprint testing`;\n  } else if (decayState.urgency?.isOverdue) {\n    priority = \"critical\";\n    reason = `Prediction deadline passed ${Math.abs(decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline)}d ago — validate or archive`;\n  } else if (isOverdue && decayState.baseTier.label === \"expired\") {\n    priority = \"critical\";\n    reason = `Not scored in ${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d — confidence severely degraded`;\n  } else if (isOverdue && decayState.baseTier.label === \"stale\") {\n    priority = \"high\";\n    reason = `Stale (${Math.round(decayState.ageDays)}d since scoring) — evidence update required`;\n  } else if (\n    decayState.urgency &&\n    decayState.urgency.urgencyTier.label === \"critical\"\n  ) {\n    priority = \"critical\";\n    reason = `Deadline in ${decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline}d — needs immediate rescoring`;\n  } else if (\n    decayState.urgency &&\n    decayState.urgency.urgencyTier.label === \"imminent\"\n  ) {\n    priority = \"high\";\n    reason = `Deadline in ${decayState.urgency.daysToDeadline}d — weekly rescoring required`;\n  } else if (isOverdue) {\n    priority = \"high\";\n    reason = `Rescore overdue by ${Math.abs(Math.round(daysUntilRescore))}d`;\n  } else if (opts.temporalNature === \"forecast\" && daysUntilRescore < 7) {\n    priority = \"medium\";\n    reason = `Forecast belief — next rescore due in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;\n  } else if (daysUntilRescore < 14) {\n    priority = \"medium\";\n    reason = `Rescore due in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;\n  } else {\n    priority = \"low\";\n    reason = `On schedule — next rescore in ${Math.round(daysUntilRescore)}d`;\n  }\n\n  if (\n    (opts.confidence ?? 0) >= 0.8 &&\n    decayState.baseTier.label !== \"fresh\" &&\n    priority === \"medium\"\n  ) {\n    priority = \"high\";\n    reason = `High-confidence belief (${((opts.confidence ?? 0) * 100).toFixed(0)}%) aging without rescore — ${reason}`;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    nextRescoreBy: decayState.rescoreByDate,\n    daysUntilRescore: Math.round(daysUntilRescore),\n    isOverdue,\n    priority,\n    reason,\n    decay: decayState,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function decay(\n  current: Opinion,\n  daysSinceLastUpdate: number,\n  halfLifeDays: number = 90\n): Opinion {\n  if (daysSinceLastUpdate <= 0) {\n    return current;\n  }\n\n  const decayFactor = Math.pow(0.5, daysSinceLastUpdate / halfLifeDays);\n  const certainty = current.b + current.d;\n  const lostCertainty = certainty - certainty * decayFactor;\n\n  return opinion(\n    current.b * decayFactor,\n    current.d * decayFactor,\n    current.u + lostCertainty,\n    current.a\n  );\n}\n"]}
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type { SLOpinion } from \"../../types\";\n\nexport function opinion(\n  belief: number,\n  disbelief: number,\n  uncertainty: number,\n  baseRate: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const b = Number.isFinite(belief) ? Math.max(0, belief) : 0;\n  const d = Number.isFinite(disbelief) ? Math.max(0, disbelief) : 0;\n  const u = Number.isFinite(uncertainty) ? Math.max(0, uncertainty) : 0;\n  const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n  const sum = b + d + u;\n\n  if (sum === 0) {\n    return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a } as SLOpinion;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    b: b / sum,\n    d: d / sum,\n    u: u / sum,\n    a,\n  } as SLOpinion;\n}\n\nexport function mkOpinion(\n  belief: number,\n  disbelief: number,\n  uncertainty: number,\n  baseRate: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  return opinion(belief, disbelief, uncertainty, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function vacuous(baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(0, 0, 1, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function dogmatic(probability: number, baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  const p = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, probability));\n  return mkOpinion(p, 1 - p, 0, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function project(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  return o.b + o.a * o.u;\n}\n\nexport function confidenceLevel(o: SLOpinion): \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\" {\n  const projected = project(o);\n  if (o.u > 0.5) {\n    return \"low\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.8 && o.u < 0.2) {\n    return \"high\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.6) {\n    return \"medium\";\n  }\n  return \"low\";\n}\n\nconst VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON = 1e-12;\n\n/**\n * Associative, vacuous-identity-preserving base rate for a fused opinion.\n *\n * The legacy `(left.a + right.a) / 2` arithmetic mean was the shared root of\n * RR.7 F1 (projected-confidence non-associativity) and F2 (a vacuous opinion of\n * a different base rate was not a fusion identity): averaging always pulled the\n * fused base rate toward the other operand even when that operand carried no\n * evidence. Subjective Logic requires every opinion over the same frame to share\n * one canonical base rate, so a correct fusion never *invents* a new base rate\n * from the operands' priors. We therefore:\n *\n *  - return the informative operand's base rate when exactly one operand is\n *    vacuous (the vacuous operand contributes no prior), making `vacuous(a)` a\n *    true identity for any `a`; and\n *  - require equal base rates otherwise (the canonical-frame contract). When\n *    they coincide the result is that shared value — trivially associative.\n *\n * If two informative opinions carry genuinely different base rates they are not\n * opinions over the same frame and must be reconciled before fusion; we fall\n * back to the arithmetic mean ONLY in that ill-posed case to stay total, and the\n * property suite documents that this path is outside the order-independence\n * guarantee.\n */\nfunction fusedBaseRate(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): number {\n  const leftVacuous = 1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON;\n  const rightVacuous = 1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON;\n  if (leftVacuous && !rightVacuous) {\n    return right.a;\n  }\n  if (rightVacuous && !leftVacuous) {\n    return left.a;\n  }\n  if (Math.abs(left.a - right.a) <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return left.a;\n  }\n  return (left.a + right.a) / 2;\n}\n\nexport function cumulativeFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  const a = fusedBaseRate(left, right);\n\n  // F2: a vacuous operand is the identity element of cumulative fusion. Return\n  // the other operand verbatim (including its base rate) so fusion with the\n  // vacuous opinion is a true no-op regardless of differing priors.\n  if (1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(right.b, right.d, right.u, a);\n  }\n  if (1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(left.b, left.d, left.u, a);\n  }\n\n  // F4: dogmatic pair handled via the ε-limit of the cumulative rule rather than\n  // the standalone `(b+d)/2` shortcut. As both uncertainties shrink at the same\n  // rate, the cumulative formula's `(b_L·u_R + b_R·u_L)/k` term converges to the\n  // arithmetic mean of the masses; deriving it from the same limit the interior\n  // formula uses keeps mass-associativity intact (no special-case discontinuity).\n  if (\n    left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON &&\n    right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON\n  ) {\n    return opinion((left.b + right.b) / 2, (left.d + right.d) / 2, 0, a);\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u - left.u * right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous(a);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (left.u * right.u) / k,\n    a\n  );\n}\n\nexport function averagingFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  const a = fusedBaseRate(left, right);\n\n  // F2: vacuous identity, mirroring cumulativeFusion.\n  if (1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(right.b, right.d, right.u, a);\n  }\n  if (1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(left.b, left.d, left.u, a);\n  }\n\n  // F4: dogmatic pair via the ε-limit of the averaging rule.\n  if (\n    left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON &&\n    right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON\n  ) {\n    return opinion((left.b + right.b) / 2, (left.d + right.d) / 2, 0, a);\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous(a);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (2 * left.u * right.u) / k,\n    a\n  );\n}\n\nexport function trustDiscount(\n  sourceOpinion: SLOpinion,\n  trust: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const weight = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, Math.abs(trust)));\n  return opinion(\n    weight * sourceOpinion.b,\n    weight * sourceOpinion.d,\n    1 - weight * (sourceOpinion.b + sourceOpinion.d),\n    sourceOpinion.a\n  );\n}\n\nconst EPSILON = 1e-9;\n\nfunction childBaseRateFallback(\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number | undefined\n): number {\n  if (fallbackBaseRate !== undefined) {\n    return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, fallbackBaseRate));\n  }\n\n  if (Math.abs(ifTrue.a - ifFalse.a) <= EPSILON) {\n    return ifTrue.a;\n  }\n\n  return (ifTrue.a + ifFalse.a) / 2;\n}\n\nfunction computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n  opinionA: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number\n): number {\n  const denominator = 1 - opinionA.a * ifTrue.u - (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.u;\n\n  if (ifTrue.u + ifFalse.u < 2 - EPSILON && Math.abs(denominator) > EPSILON) {\n    const baseRate =\n      (opinionA.a * ifTrue.b + (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.b) / denominator;\n    if (baseRate >= -EPSILON && baseRate <= 1 + EPSILON) {\n      return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n    }\n  }\n\n  return fallbackBaseRate;\n}\n\nfunction safeCorrectionTerm(\n  numerator: number,\n  denominator: number\n): number | undefined {\n  if (Math.abs(denominator) <= EPSILON) {\n    return;\n  }\n\n  const value = numerator / denominator;\n  if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    return;\n  }\n\n  return Math.max(0, value);\n}\n\ninterface ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext {\n  childBaseRate: number;\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion;\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion;\n  intermediateBelief: number;\n  intermediateDisbelief: number;\n  opinionA: SLOpinion;\n  projectedAntecedent: number;\n  projectedAntecedentComplement: number;\n  projectedConditionalA: number;\n  projectedVacuousDeduction: number;\n}\n\nfunction correctionOrZero(numerator: number, denominator: number): number {\n  return safeCorrectionTerm(numerator, denominator) ?? 0;\n}\n\nfunction hasNoConditionalDeductionCorrection(\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion\n): boolean {\n  return (\n    (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d > ifFalse.d) ||\n    (ifTrue.b <= ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d)\n  );\n}\n\nfunction usesLowerVacuousBranch(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): boolean {\n  return context.projectedVacuousDeduction <= context.projectedConditionalA;\n}\n\nfunction usesLowerAntecedentBranch(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): boolean {\n  return context.projectedAntecedent <= context.opinionA.a;\n}\n\nfunction computeTrueDominantDeductionCorrection(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): number {\n  const beliefGap = context.ifTrue.b - context.ifFalse.b;\n  const disbeliefGap = context.ifFalse.d - context.ifTrue.d;\n  const lowerVacuous = usesLowerVacuousBranch(context);\n  const lowerAntecedent = usesLowerAntecedentBranch(context);\n\n  if (lowerVacuous && lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      context.opinionA.a *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b),\n      context.projectedAntecedent * context.childBaseRate\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerVacuous) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      context.opinionA.a *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d) *\n        beliefGap,\n      context.projectedAntecedentComplement *\n        context.childBaseRate *\n        disbeliefGap\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b) *\n        disbeliefGap,\n      context.projectedAntecedent * (1 - context.childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n    );\n  }\n\n  return correctionOrZero(\n    (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n      context.opinionA.u *\n      (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d),\n    context.projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - context.childBaseRate)\n  );\n}\n\nfunction computeFalseDominantDeductionCorrection(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): number {\n  const beliefGap = context.ifFalse.b - context.ifTrue.b;\n  const disbeliefGap = context.ifTrue.d - context.ifFalse.d;\n  const lowerVacuous = usesLowerVacuousBranch(context);\n  const lowerAntecedent = usesLowerAntecedentBranch(context);\n\n  if (lowerVacuous && lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d) *\n        beliefGap,\n      context.projectedAntecedent * context.childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerVacuous) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b),\n      context.projectedAntecedentComplement * context.childBaseRate\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      context.opinionA.a *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d),\n      context.projectedAntecedent * (1 - context.childBaseRate)\n    );\n  }\n\n  return correctionOrZero(\n    context.opinionA.a *\n      context.opinionA.u *\n      (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b) *\n      disbeliefGap,\n    context.projectedAntecedentComplement *\n      (1 - context.childBaseRate) *\n      beliefGap\n  );\n}\n\nfunction computeConditionalDeductionCorrection(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): number {\n  if (hasNoConditionalDeductionCorrection(context.ifTrue, context.ifFalse)) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n\n  if (\n    context.ifTrue.b > context.ifFalse.b &&\n    context.ifTrue.d <= context.ifFalse.d\n  ) {\n    return computeTrueDominantDeductionCorrection(context);\n  }\n\n  return computeFalseDominantDeductionCorrection(context);\n}\n\nexport function conditionalDeduction(\n  opinionA: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate?: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const fallbackChildBaseRate = childBaseRateFallback(\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackBaseRate\n  );\n  const childBaseRate = computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n    opinionA,\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackChildBaseRate\n  );\n  const projectedAntecedent = project(opinionA);\n  const projectedAntecedentComplement = 1 - projectedAntecedent;\n  const intermediateBelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.b +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.b +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.b * opinionA.a + ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateDisbelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.d +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.d +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.d * opinionA.a + ifFalse.d * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateUncertainty =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.u +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.u +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedVacuousDeduction =\n    ifTrue.b * opinionA.a +\n    ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a) +\n    childBaseRate * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedConditionalA =\n    ifTrue.b + childBaseRate * (1 - ifTrue.b - ifTrue.d);\n  const correction = computeConditionalDeductionCorrection({\n    childBaseRate,\n    ifFalse,\n    ifTrue,\n    intermediateBelief,\n    intermediateDisbelief,\n    opinionA,\n    projectedAntecedent,\n    projectedAntecedentComplement,\n    projectedConditionalA,\n    projectedVacuousDeduction,\n  });\n\n  return opinion(\n    intermediateBelief - childBaseRate * correction,\n    intermediateDisbelief - (1 - childBaseRate) * correction,\n    intermediateUncertainty + correction,\n    childBaseRate\n  );\n}\n\n/**\n * Abductive inference over a conditional.\n * Given an opinion on Y and conditionals P(Y|X), P(Y|~X), infer an opinion on X.\n */\nexport function conditionalAbduction(\n  opinionY: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  baseRateX: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const priorX = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRateX));\n  const probabilityY = project(opinionY);\n  const probabilityGivenTrue = project(ifTrue);\n  const probabilityGivenFalse = project(ifFalse);\n\n  const posteriorIfYDenominator =\n    probabilityGivenTrue * priorX + probabilityGivenFalse * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfY =\n    posteriorIfYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : (probabilityGivenTrue * priorX) / posteriorIfYDenominator;\n\n  const posteriorIfNotYDenominator =\n    (1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX +\n    (1 - probabilityGivenFalse) * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfNotY =\n    posteriorIfNotYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : ((1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX) / posteriorIfNotYDenominator;\n\n  const projectedX =\n    probabilityY * posteriorIfY + (1 - probabilityY) * posteriorIfNotY;\n  const uncertainty = Math.max(\n    opinionY.u * 0.5,\n    probabilityY * ifTrue.u + (1 - probabilityY) * ifFalse.u\n  );\n\n  return opinion(\n    projectedX * (1 - uncertainty),\n    (1 - projectedX) * (1 - uncertainty),\n    uncertainty,\n    priorX\n  );\n}\n\nexport function negate(o: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(o.d, o.b, o.u, 1 - o.a);\n}\n\nexport function constraintFusion(\n  left: SLOpinion,\n  right: SLOpinion,\n  mode: \"pressure\" | \"redistribute\" = \"pressure\"\n): { o1: SLOpinion; o2: SLOpinion } {\n  if (mode === \"redistribute\") {\n    const leftProjected = project(left);\n    const rightProjected = project(right);\n    const total = leftProjected + rightProjected;\n\n    if (total <= 1) {\n      return { o1: left, o2: right };\n    }\n\n    const scale = 1 / total;\n    return {\n      o1: opinion(\n        left.b * scale,\n        left.d + left.b * (1 - scale),\n        left.u,\n        left.a\n      ),\n      o2: opinion(\n        right.b * scale,\n        right.d + right.b * (1 - scale),\n        right.u,\n        right.a\n      ),\n    };\n  }\n\n  const pressureLeft = right.b * 0.5;\n  const pressureRight = left.b * 0.5;\n\n  return {\n    o1: opinion(\n      left.b - pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.d + pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.u,\n      left.a\n    ),\n    o2: opinion(\n      right.b - pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.d + pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.u,\n      right.a\n    ),\n  };\n}\n\nexport function evidenceBalance(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  const total = o.b + o.d;\n  if (total === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  return (o.b - o.d) / total;\n}\n\nexport function areTensioned(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): boolean {\n  return (\n    project(left) > 0.5 &&\n    project(right) > 0.5 &&\n    (left.d > 0.2 || right.d > 0.2)\n  );\n}\n\nexport function informationGain(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  if (o.u === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  if (o.u === 1) {\n    return 1;\n  }\n  return o.u * (1 - Math.abs(o.b - o.d));\n}\n","import type {\n  BeliefLifecycleBucket,\n  DeadlineUrgency,\n  DeadlineUrgencyTier,\n  DecayTier,\n  EffectiveDecay,\n  Opinion,\n  RescoringSchedule,\n} from \"../../types\";\nimport { opinion } from \"../subjectiveLogic\";\n\ntype RescoringPriorityReason = Pick<RescoringSchedule, \"priority\" | \"reason\">;\n\ninterface RescoringPriorityContext {\n  confidence?: number;\n  daysUntilRescore: number;\n  decayState: EffectiveDecay;\n  isOverdue: boolean;\n  lifecycleStatus: BeliefLifecycleBucket;\n  temporalNature?: \"factual\" | \"forecast\" | \"unknown\" | null;\n}\n\ntype RescoringRule = (\n  context: RescoringPriorityContext\n) => RescoringPriorityReason | undefined;\n\nexport const DECAY_TIERS: Record<string, DecayTier> = {\n  FRESH: {\n    maxAgeDays: 30,\n    weight: 1,\n    label: \"fresh\",\n    action: \"Full confidence — recently validated\",\n    rescoreInDays: 30,\n  },\n  AGING: {\n    maxAgeDays: 90,\n    weight: 0.8,\n    label: \"aging\",\n    action: \"Evidence refresh recommended\",\n    rescoreInDays: 14,\n  },\n  STALE: {\n    maxAgeDays: 180,\n    weight: 0.5,\n    label: \"stale\",\n    action: \"Evidence update required before trusting\",\n    rescoreInDays: 7,\n  },\n  EXPIRED: {\n    maxAgeDays: Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n    weight: 0.2,\n    label: \"expired\",\n    action: \"Full re-evaluation needed\",\n    rescoreInDays: 0,\n  },\n};\n\nexport const DEADLINE_URGENCY: Record<string, DeadlineUrgencyTier> = {\n  DISTANT: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 365,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 1,\n    label: \"distant\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 90,\n    action: \"Quarterly confidence check\",\n  },\n  APPROACHING: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 180,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.9,\n    label: \"approaching\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 30,\n    action: \"Monthly confidence check — conditions may be shifting\",\n  },\n  NEAR: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 90,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.75,\n    label: \"near\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 14,\n    action: \"Biweekly rescore — deadline within 3 months\",\n  },\n  IMMINENT: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 30,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.6,\n    label: \"imminent\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 7,\n    action: \"Weekly rescore — deadline within 1 month\",\n  },\n  CRITICAL: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: 7,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.4,\n    label: \"critical\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 1,\n    action: \"Daily rescore — deadline THIS WEEK\",\n  },\n  OVERDUE: {\n    minDaysToDeadline: Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY,\n    urgencyMultiplier: 0.2,\n    label: \"overdue\",\n    rescoreIntervalDays: 0,\n    action: \"OVERDUE — must validate or archive immediately\",\n  },\n};\n\nfunction normalizeBeliefConfidence(confidence: unknown): number | null {\n  if (typeof confidence !== \"number\" || !Number.isFinite(confidence)) {\n    return null;\n  }\n  if (confidence >= 0 && confidence <= 1) {\n    return confidence;\n  }\n  if (confidence > 1 && confidence <= 100) {\n    return confidence / 100;\n  }\n  return null;\n}\n\nfunction hasResolvedPredictionOutcome(predictionMeta: unknown): boolean {\n  if (!predictionMeta || typeof predictionMeta !== \"object\") {\n    return false;\n  }\n\n  const outcome = (predictionMeta as { outcome?: unknown }).outcome;\n  return (\n    outcome === \"confirmed\" ||\n    outcome === \"disconfirmed\" ||\n    outcome === \"partial\" ||\n    outcome === \"expired\"\n  );\n}\n\nfunction resolveLifecycleBucket(args: {\n  beliefStatus?: string | null;\n  confidence?: unknown;\n  predictionMeta?: unknown;\n}): BeliefLifecycleBucket {\n  if (\n    normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) === 0 ||\n    normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) === 1 ||\n    hasResolvedPredictionOutcome(args.predictionMeta)\n  ) {\n    return \"fact\";\n  }\n\n  if (\n    args.beliefStatus === \"assumption\" ||\n    args.beliefStatus === \"hypothesis\" ||\n    args.beliefStatus === \"belief\" ||\n    args.beliefStatus === \"fact\"\n  ) {\n    if (\n      normalizeBeliefConfidence(args.confidence) !== null &&\n      (args.beliefStatus === \"assumption\" || args.beliefStatus === \"hypothesis\")\n    ) {\n      return \"belief\";\n    }\n    return args.beliefStatus;\n  }\n\n  return \"assumption\";\n}\n\nfunction lifecycleMultiplier(\n  status: BeliefLifecycleBucket | string | null | undefined\n) {\n  if (status === \"assumption\") {\n    return 0.65;\n  }\n  if (status === \"hypothesis\") {\n    return 0.8;\n  }\n  return 1;\n}\n\nfunction resolveLifecycleRescore(\n  context: RescoringPriorityContext\n): RescoringPriorityReason | undefined {\n  if (context.isOverdue && context.lifecycleStatus === \"assumption\") {\n    return {\n      priority: \"critical\",\n      reason: `Untested assumption is stale (${Math.round(context.decayState.ageDays)}d) — validate or supersede`,\n    };\n  }\n\n  if (\n    (context.isOverdue && context.lifecycleStatus === \"hypothesis\") ||\n    (context.lifecycleStatus === \"hypothesis\" && context.daysUntilRescore < 7)\n  ) {\n    return {\n      priority: \"high\",\n      reason: `Hypothesis aging without validation (${Math.round(context.decayState.ageDays)}d) — run/finish sprint testing`,\n    };\n  }\n}\n\nfunction resolveDeadlineRescore(\n  context: RescoringPriorityContext\n): RescoringPriorityReason | undefined {\n  const urgency = context.decayState.urgency;\n  if (urgency?.isOverdue) {\n    return {\n      priority: \"critical\",\n      reason: `Prediction deadline passed ${Math.abs(urgency.daysToDeadline)}d ago — validate or archive`,\n    };\n  }\n\n  if (urgency?.urgencyTier.label === \"critical\") {\n    return {\n      priority: \"critical\",\n      reason: `Deadline in ${urgency.daysToDeadline}d — needs immediate rescoring`,\n    };\n  }\n\n  if (urgency?.urgencyTier.label === \"imminent\") {\n    return {\n      priority: \"high\",\n      reason: `Deadline in ${urgency.daysToDeadline}d — weekly rescoring required`,\n    };\n  }\n}\n\nfunction resolveStalenessRescore(\n  context: RescoringPriorityContext\n): RescoringPriorityReason | undefined {\n  if (context.isOverdue && context.decayState.baseTier.label === \"expired\") {\n    return {\n      priority: \"critical\",\n      reason: `Not scored in ${Math.round(context.decayState.ageDays)}d — confidence severely degraded`,\n    };\n  }\n\n  if (context.isOverdue && context.decayState.baseTier.label === \"stale\") {\n    return {\n      priority: \"high\",\n      reason: `Stale (${Math.round(context.decayState.ageDays)}d since scoring) — evidence update required`,\n    };\n  }\n\n  if (context.isOverdue) {\n    return {\n      priority: \"high\",\n      reason: `Rescore overdue by ${Math.abs(Math.round(context.daysUntilRescore))}d`,\n    };\n  }\n}\n\nfunction resolveRoutineRescore(\n  context: RescoringPriorityContext\n): RescoringPriorityReason {\n  if (context.temporalNature === \"forecast\" && context.daysUntilRescore < 7) {\n    return {\n      priority: \"medium\",\n      reason: `Forecast belief — next rescore due in ${Math.round(context.daysUntilRescore)}d`,\n    };\n  }\n\n  if (context.daysUntilRescore < 14) {\n    return {\n      priority: \"medium\",\n      reason: `Rescore due in ${Math.round(context.daysUntilRescore)}d`,\n    };\n  }\n\n  return {\n    priority: \"low\",\n    reason: `On schedule — next rescore in ${Math.round(context.daysUntilRescore)}d`,\n  };\n}\n\nfunction escalateHighConfidenceRescore(\n  result: RescoringPriorityReason,\n  context: RescoringPriorityContext\n): RescoringPriorityReason {\n  if (\n    (context.confidence ?? 0) >= 0.8 &&\n    context.decayState.baseTier.label !== \"fresh\" &&\n    result.priority === \"medium\"\n  ) {\n    return {\n      priority: \"high\",\n      reason: `High-confidence belief (${((context.confidence ?? 0) * 100).toFixed(0)}%) aging without rescore — ${result.reason}`,\n    };\n  }\n\n  return result;\n}\n\nconst RESCORING_RULES: readonly RescoringRule[] = [\n  resolveLifecycleRescore,\n  resolveDeadlineRescore,\n  resolveStalenessRescore,\n];\n\nfunction resolveRescoringPriority(\n  context: RescoringPriorityContext\n): RescoringPriorityReason {\n  for (const rule of RESCORING_RULES) {\n    const result = rule(context);\n    if (result) {\n      return escalateHighConfidenceRescore(result, context);\n    }\n  }\n\n  return escalateHighConfidenceRescore(resolveRoutineRescore(context), context);\n}\n\nexport function computeBaseDecay(lastScoredAt: number): {\n  ageDays: number;\n  tier: DecayTier;\n  weight: number;\n} {\n  const ageDays = (Date.now() - lastScoredAt) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);\n  let tier = DECAY_TIERS.EXPIRED;\n\n  if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.FRESH.maxAgeDays) {\n    tier = DECAY_TIERS.FRESH;\n  } else if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.AGING.maxAgeDays) {\n    tier = DECAY_TIERS.AGING;\n  } else if (ageDays <= DECAY_TIERS.STALE.maxAgeDays) {\n    tier = DECAY_TIERS.STALE;\n  }\n\n  return { ageDays, tier, weight: tier.weight };\n}\n\nexport function computeDeadlineUrgency(\n  expectedBy: number | null | undefined\n): DeadlineUrgency {\n  if (!expectedBy) {\n    return null;\n  }\n\n  const daysToDeadline = (expectedBy - Date.now()) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);\n  let urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.DISTANT;\n\n  if (daysToDeadline < 0) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.OVERDUE;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 7) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.CRITICAL;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 30) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.IMMINENT;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 90) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.NEAR;\n  } else if (daysToDeadline <= 180) {\n    urgencyTier = DEADLINE_URGENCY.APPROACHING;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    daysToDeadline: Math.round(daysToDeadline),\n    urgencyTier,\n    urgencyMultiplier: urgencyTier.urgencyMultiplier,\n    isOverdue: daysToDeadline < 0,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function computeEffectiveDecay(\n  lastScoredAt: number,\n  expectedBy?: number | null,\n  beliefStatus?: BeliefLifecycleBucket | string | null\n): EffectiveDecay {\n  const base = computeBaseDecay(lastScoredAt);\n  const urgency = computeDeadlineUrgency(expectedBy);\n  const effectiveWeight =\n    (urgency ? base.weight * urgency.urgencyMultiplier : base.weight) *\n    lifecycleMultiplier(beliefStatus);\n\n  const urgencyRescoreDays =\n    urgency?.urgencyTier.rescoreIntervalDays ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY;\n  const rescoreInDays = Math.min(base.tier.rescoreInDays, urgencyRescoreDays);\n  const rescoreByDate = lastScoredAt + rescoreInDays * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;\n\n  let action = base.tier.action;\n  if (urgency && urgency.urgencyTier.label !== \"distant\") {\n    action = `${urgency.urgencyTier.action}. ${base.tier.action}`;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    ageDays: base.ageDays,\n    baseTier: base.tier,\n    baseWeight: base.weight,\n    urgency,\n    effectiveWeight: Math.max(0, Math.min(1, effectiveWeight)),\n    rescoreByDate,\n    rescoreInDays,\n    action,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function getRescoringSchedule(opts: {\n  lastScoredAt: number;\n  temporalNature?: \"factual\" | \"forecast\" | \"unknown\" | null;\n  expectedBy?: number | null;\n  predictionMeta?: { expectedBy?: number; outcome?: unknown } | null;\n  confidence?: number;\n  beliefStatus?: string | null;\n}): RescoringSchedule {\n  const lifecycleStatus = resolveLifecycleBucket({\n    beliefStatus: opts.beliefStatus,\n    confidence: opts.confidence,\n    predictionMeta: opts.predictionMeta,\n  });\n\n  const decayState = computeEffectiveDecay(\n    opts.lastScoredAt,\n    opts.expectedBy,\n    lifecycleStatus\n  );\n  const daysUntilRescore =\n    (decayState.rescoreByDate - Date.now()) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24);\n  const isOverdue = daysUntilRescore < 0;\n\n  const { priority, reason } = resolveRescoringPriority({\n    confidence: opts.confidence,\n    daysUntilRescore,\n    decayState,\n    isOverdue,\n    lifecycleStatus,\n    temporalNature: opts.temporalNature,\n  });\n\n  return {\n    nextRescoreBy: decayState.rescoreByDate,\n    daysUntilRescore: Math.round(daysUntilRescore),\n    isOverdue,\n    priority,\n    reason,\n    decay: decayState,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function decay(\n  current: Opinion,\n  daysSinceLastUpdate: number,\n  halfLifeDays = 90\n): Opinion {\n  if (daysSinceLastUpdate <= 0) {\n    return current;\n  }\n\n  const decayFactor = 0.5 ** (daysSinceLastUpdate / halfLifeDays);\n  const certainty = current.b + current.d;\n  const lostCertainty = certainty - certainty * decayFactor;\n\n  return opinion(\n    current.b * decayFactor,\n    current.d * decayFactor,\n    current.u + lostCertainty,\n    current.a\n  );\n}\n"]}

package/dist/v1/operations/dynamics/defeat.js.map

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type { SLOpinion } from \"../../types\";\n\nexport function opinion(\n  belief: number,\n  disbelief: number,\n  uncertainty: number,\n  baseRate: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const b = Number.isFinite(belief) ? Math.max(0, belief) : 0;\n  const d = Number.isFinite(disbelief) ? Math.max(0, disbelief) : 0;\n  const u = Number.isFinite(uncertainty) ? Math.max(0, uncertainty) : 0;\n  const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n  const sum = b + d + u;\n\n  if (sum === 0) {\n    return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a } as SLOpinion;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    b: b / sum,\n    d: d / sum,\n    u: u / sum,\n    a,\n  } as SLOpinion;\n}\n\nexport function mkOpinion(\n  belief: number,\n  disbelief: number,\n  uncertainty: number,\n  baseRate: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  return opinion(belief, disbelief, uncertainty, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function vacuous(baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(0, 0, 1, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function dogmatic(probability: number, baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  const p = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, probability));\n  return mkOpinion(p, 1 - p, 0, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function project(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  return o.b + o.a * o.u;\n}\n\nexport function confidenceLevel(o: SLOpinion): \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\" {\n  const projected = project(o);\n  if (o.u > 0.5) {\n    return \"low\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.8 && o.u < 0.2) {\n    return \"high\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.6) {\n    return \"medium\";\n  }\n  return \"low\";\n}\n\nconst VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON = 1e-12;\n\n/**\n * Associative, vacuous-identity-preserving base rate for a fused opinion.\n *\n * The legacy `(left.a + right.a) / 2` arithmetic mean was the shared root of\n * RR.7 F1 (projected-confidence non-associativity) and F2 (a vacuous opinion of\n * a different base rate was not a fusion identity): averaging always pulled the\n * fused base rate toward the other operand even when that operand carried no\n * evidence. Subjective Logic requires every opinion over the same frame to share\n * one canonical base rate, so a correct fusion never *invents* a new base rate\n * from the operands' priors. We therefore:\n *\n *  - return the informative operand's base rate when exactly one operand is\n *    vacuous (the vacuous operand contributes no prior), making `vacuous(a)` a\n *    true identity for any `a`; and\n *  - require equal base rates otherwise (the canonical-frame contract). When\n *    they coincide the result is that shared value — trivially associative.\n *\n * If two informative opinions carry genuinely different base rates they are not\n * opinions over the same frame and must be reconciled before fusion; we fall\n * back to the arithmetic mean ONLY in that ill-posed case to stay total, and the\n * property suite documents that this path is outside the order-independence\n * guarantee.\n */\nfunction fusedBaseRate(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): number {\n  const leftVacuous = 1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON;\n  const rightVacuous = 1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON;\n  if (leftVacuous && !rightVacuous) {\n    return right.a;\n  }\n  if (rightVacuous && !leftVacuous) {\n    return left.a;\n  }\n  if (Math.abs(left.a - right.a) <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return left.a;\n  }\n  return (left.a + right.a) / 2;\n}\n\nexport function cumulativeFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  const a = fusedBaseRate(left, right);\n\n  // F2: a vacuous operand is the identity element of cumulative fusion. Return\n  // the other operand verbatim (including its base rate) so fusion with the\n  // vacuous opinion is a true no-op regardless of differing priors.\n  if (1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(right.b, right.d, right.u, a);\n  }\n  if (1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(left.b, left.d, left.u, a);\n  }\n\n  // F4: dogmatic pair handled via the ε-limit of the cumulative rule rather than\n  // the standalone `(b+d)/2` shortcut. As both uncertainties shrink at the same\n  // rate, the cumulative formula's `(b_L·u_R + b_R·u_L)/k` term converges to the\n  // arithmetic mean of the masses; deriving it from the same limit the interior\n  // formula uses keeps mass-associativity intact (no special-case discontinuity).\n  if (left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON && right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion((left.b + right.b) / 2, (left.d + right.d) / 2, 0, a);\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u - left.u * right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous(a);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (left.u * right.u) / k,\n    a\n  );\n}\n\nexport function averagingFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  const a = fusedBaseRate(left, right);\n\n  // F2: vacuous identity, mirroring cumulativeFusion.\n  if (1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(right.b, right.d, right.u, a);\n  }\n  if (1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(left.b, left.d, left.u, a);\n  }\n\n  // F4: dogmatic pair via the ε-limit of the averaging rule.\n  if (left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON && right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion((left.b + right.b) / 2, (left.d + right.d) / 2, 0, a);\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous(a);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (2 * left.u * right.u) / k,\n    a\n  );\n}\n\nexport function trustDiscount(sourceOpinion: SLOpinion, trust: number): SLOpinion {\n  const weight = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, Math.abs(trust)));\n  return opinion(\n    weight * sourceOpinion.b,\n    weight * sourceOpinion.d,\n    1 - weight * (sourceOpinion.b + sourceOpinion.d),\n    sourceOpinion.a\n  );\n}\n\nconst EPSILON = 1e-9;\n\nfunction childBaseRateFallback(\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number | undefined\n): number {\n  if (fallbackBaseRate !== undefined) {\n    return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, fallbackBaseRate));\n  }\n\n  if (Math.abs(ifTrue.a - ifFalse.a) <= EPSILON) {\n    return ifTrue.a;\n  }\n\n  return (ifTrue.a + ifFalse.a) / 2;\n}\n\nfunction computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n  opinionA: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number\n): number {\n  const denominator =\n    1 - opinionA.a * ifTrue.u - (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.u;\n\n  if (ifTrue.u + ifFalse.u < 2 - EPSILON && Math.abs(denominator) > EPSILON) {\n    const baseRate =\n      (opinionA.a * ifTrue.b + (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.b) / denominator;\n    if (baseRate >= -EPSILON && baseRate <= 1 + EPSILON) {\n      return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n    }\n  }\n\n  return fallbackBaseRate;\n}\n\nfunction safeCorrectionTerm(\n  numerator: number,\n  denominator: number\n): number | undefined {\n  if (Math.abs(denominator) <= EPSILON) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  const value = numerator / denominator;\n  if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  return Math.max(0, value);\n}\n\nexport function conditionalDeduction(\n  opinionA: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate?: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const fallbackChildBaseRate = childBaseRateFallback(\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackBaseRate\n  );\n  const childBaseRate = computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n    opinionA,\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackChildBaseRate\n  );\n  const projectedAntecedent = project(opinionA);\n  const projectedAntecedentComplement = 1 - projectedAntecedent;\n  const intermediateBelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.b +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.b +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.b * opinionA.a + ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateDisbelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.d +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.d +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.d * opinionA.a + ifFalse.d * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateUncertainty =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.u +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.u +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedVacuousDeduction =\n    ifTrue.b * opinionA.a +\n    ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a) +\n    childBaseRate *\n      (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedConditionalA =\n    ifTrue.b + childBaseRate * (1 - ifTrue.b - ifTrue.d);\n  let correction = 0;\n\n  if (\n    (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d > ifFalse.d) ||\n    (ifTrue.b <= ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d)\n  ) {\n    correction = 0;\n  } else if (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d) {\n    const beliefGap = ifTrue.b - ifFalse.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifFalse.d - ifTrue.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) * beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  } else {\n    const beliefGap = ifFalse.b - ifTrue.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifTrue.d - ifFalse.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) *\n            beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    intermediateBelief - childBaseRate * correction,\n    intermediateDisbelief - (1 - childBaseRate) * correction,\n    intermediateUncertainty + correction,\n    childBaseRate\n  );\n}\n\n/**\n * Abductive inference over a conditional.\n * Given an opinion on Y and conditionals P(Y|X), P(Y|~X), infer an opinion on X.\n */\nexport function conditionalAbduction(\n  opinionY: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  baseRateX: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const priorX = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRateX));\n  const probabilityY = project(opinionY);\n  const probabilityGivenTrue = project(ifTrue);\n  const probabilityGivenFalse = project(ifFalse);\n\n  const posteriorIfYDenominator =\n    probabilityGivenTrue * priorX +\n    probabilityGivenFalse * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfY =\n    posteriorIfYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : (probabilityGivenTrue * priorX) / posteriorIfYDenominator;\n\n  const posteriorIfNotYDenominator =\n    (1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX +\n    (1 - probabilityGivenFalse) * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfNotY =\n    posteriorIfNotYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : ((1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX) / posteriorIfNotYDenominator;\n\n  const projectedX =\n    probabilityY * posteriorIfY + (1 - probabilityY) * posteriorIfNotY;\n  const uncertainty = Math.max(\n    opinionY.u * 0.5,\n    probabilityY * ifTrue.u + (1 - probabilityY) * ifFalse.u\n  );\n\n  return opinion(\n    projectedX * (1 - uncertainty),\n    (1 - projectedX) * (1 - uncertainty),\n    uncertainty,\n    priorX\n  );\n}\n\nexport function negate(o: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(o.d, o.b, o.u, 1 - o.a);\n}\n\nexport function constraintFusion(\n  left: SLOpinion,\n  right: SLOpinion,\n  mode: \"pressure\" | \"redistribute\" = \"pressure\"\n): { o1: SLOpinion; o2: SLOpinion } {\n  if (mode === \"redistribute\") {\n    const leftProjected = project(left);\n    const rightProjected = project(right);\n    const total = leftProjected + rightProjected;\n\n    if (total <= 1) {\n      return { o1: left, o2: right };\n    }\n\n    const scale = 1 / total;\n    return {\n      o1: opinion(\n        left.b * scale,\n        left.d + left.b * (1 - scale),\n        left.u,\n        left.a\n      ),\n      o2: opinion(\n        right.b * scale,\n        right.d + right.b * (1 - scale),\n        right.u,\n        right.a\n      ),\n    };\n  }\n\n  const pressureLeft = right.b * 0.5;\n  const pressureRight = left.b * 0.5;\n\n  return {\n    o1: opinion(\n      left.b - pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.d + pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.u,\n      left.a\n    ),\n    o2: opinion(\n      right.b - pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.d + pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.u,\n      right.a\n    ),\n  };\n}\n\nexport function evidenceBalance(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  const total = o.b + o.d;\n  if (total === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  return (o.b - o.d) / total;\n}\n\nexport function areTensioned(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): boolean {\n  return (\n    project(left) > 0.5 &&\n    project(right) > 0.5 &&\n    (left.d > 0.2 || right.d > 0.2)\n  );\n}\n\nexport function informationGain(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  if (o.u === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  if (o.u === 1) {\n    return 1;\n  }\n  return o.u * (1 - Math.abs(o.b - o.d));\n}\n","import type { EdgeMetadata, Opinion, PropagationResult } from \"../../types\";\nimport {\n  constraintFusion,\n  cumulativeFusion,\n  mkOpinion,\n  negate,\n  project,\n  trustDiscount,\n} from \"../subjectiveLogic\";\n\nexport function applyNegativeSupport(\n  source: Opinion,\n  target: Opinion,\n  weight: number,\n  metadata: EdgeMetadata = {}\n): PropagationResult {\n  const sourceOpinion = mkOpinion(source.b, source.d, source.u, source.a);\n  const targetOpinion = mkOpinion(target.b, target.d, target.u, target.a);\n  if (metadata.constraint === \"xor\") {\n    const result = constraintFusion(\n      sourceOpinion,\n      targetOpinion,\n      metadata.normalization ?? \"pressure\"\n    );\n    return {\n      opinion: result.o2,\n      operator: \"constraint_fusion\",\n      rationale: `XOR constraint: source belief at ${project(\n        sourceOpinion\n      ).toFixed(2)} pressures target`,\n    };\n  }\n\n  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(sourceOpinion), Math.abs(weight));\n  return {\n    opinion: cumulativeFusion(targetOpinion, discounted),\n    operator: \"cumulative_fusion\",\n    rationale: `Contradicting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(\n      2\n    )}) from source at ${project(sourceOpinion).toFixed(2)}`,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function applyNegativeEvidence(\n  source: Opinion,\n  target: Opinion,\n  weight: number\n): PropagationResult {\n  const sourceOpinion = mkOpinion(source.b, source.d, source.u, source.a);\n  const targetOpinion = mkOpinion(target.b, target.d, target.u, target.a);\n  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(sourceOpinion), Math.abs(weight));\n  return {\n    opinion: cumulativeFusion(targetOpinion, discounted),\n    operator: \"cumulative_fusion\",\n    rationale: `Contradicting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(2)})`,\n  };\n}\n"]}
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type { SLOpinion } from \"../../types\";\n\nexport function opinion(\n  belief: number,\n  disbelief: number,\n  uncertainty: number,\n  baseRate: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const b = Number.isFinite(belief) ? Math.max(0, belief) : 0;\n  const d = Number.isFinite(disbelief) ? Math.max(0, disbelief) : 0;\n  const u = Number.isFinite(uncertainty) ? Math.max(0, uncertainty) : 0;\n  const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n  const sum = b + d + u;\n\n  if (sum === 0) {\n    return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a } as SLOpinion;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    b: b / sum,\n    d: d / sum,\n    u: u / sum,\n    a,\n  } as SLOpinion;\n}\n\nexport function mkOpinion(\n  belief: number,\n  disbelief: number,\n  uncertainty: number,\n  baseRate: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  return opinion(belief, disbelief, uncertainty, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function vacuous(baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(0, 0, 1, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function dogmatic(probability: number, baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  const p = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, probability));\n  return mkOpinion(p, 1 - p, 0, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function project(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  return o.b + o.a * o.u;\n}\n\nexport function confidenceLevel(o: SLOpinion): \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\" {\n  const projected = project(o);\n  if (o.u > 0.5) {\n    return \"low\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.8 && o.u < 0.2) {\n    return \"high\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.6) {\n    return \"medium\";\n  }\n  return \"low\";\n}\n\nconst VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON = 1e-12;\n\n/**\n * Associative, vacuous-identity-preserving base rate for a fused opinion.\n *\n * The legacy `(left.a + right.a) / 2` arithmetic mean was the shared root of\n * RR.7 F1 (projected-confidence non-associativity) and F2 (a vacuous opinion of\n * a different base rate was not a fusion identity): averaging always pulled the\n * fused base rate toward the other operand even when that operand carried no\n * evidence. Subjective Logic requires every opinion over the same frame to share\n * one canonical base rate, so a correct fusion never *invents* a new base rate\n * from the operands' priors. We therefore:\n *\n *  - return the informative operand's base rate when exactly one operand is\n *    vacuous (the vacuous operand contributes no prior), making `vacuous(a)` a\n *    true identity for any `a`; and\n *  - require equal base rates otherwise (the canonical-frame contract). When\n *    they coincide the result is that shared value — trivially associative.\n *\n * If two informative opinions carry genuinely different base rates they are not\n * opinions over the same frame and must be reconciled before fusion; we fall\n * back to the arithmetic mean ONLY in that ill-posed case to stay total, and the\n * property suite documents that this path is outside the order-independence\n * guarantee.\n */\nfunction fusedBaseRate(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): number {\n  const leftVacuous = 1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON;\n  const rightVacuous = 1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON;\n  if (leftVacuous && !rightVacuous) {\n    return right.a;\n  }\n  if (rightVacuous && !leftVacuous) {\n    return left.a;\n  }\n  if (Math.abs(left.a - right.a) <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return left.a;\n  }\n  return (left.a + right.a) / 2;\n}\n\nexport function cumulativeFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  const a = fusedBaseRate(left, right);\n\n  // F2: a vacuous operand is the identity element of cumulative fusion. Return\n  // the other operand verbatim (including its base rate) so fusion with the\n  // vacuous opinion is a true no-op regardless of differing priors.\n  if (1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(right.b, right.d, right.u, a);\n  }\n  if (1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(left.b, left.d, left.u, a);\n  }\n\n  // F4: dogmatic pair handled via the ε-limit of the cumulative rule rather than\n  // the standalone `(b+d)/2` shortcut. As both uncertainties shrink at the same\n  // rate, the cumulative formula's `(b_L·u_R + b_R·u_L)/k` term converges to the\n  // arithmetic mean of the masses; deriving it from the same limit the interior\n  // formula uses keeps mass-associativity intact (no special-case discontinuity).\n  if (\n    left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON &&\n    right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON\n  ) {\n    return opinion((left.b + right.b) / 2, (left.d + right.d) / 2, 0, a);\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u - left.u * right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous(a);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (left.u * right.u) / k,\n    a\n  );\n}\n\nexport function averagingFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  const a = fusedBaseRate(left, right);\n\n  // F2: vacuous identity, mirroring cumulativeFusion.\n  if (1 - left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(right.b, right.d, right.u, a);\n  }\n  if (1 - right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON) {\n    return opinion(left.b, left.d, left.u, a);\n  }\n\n  // F4: dogmatic pair via the ε-limit of the averaging rule.\n  if (\n    left.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON &&\n    right.u <= VACUOUS_IDENTITY_EPSILON\n  ) {\n    return opinion((left.b + right.b) / 2, (left.d + right.d) / 2, 0, a);\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous(a);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (2 * left.u * right.u) / k,\n    a\n  );\n}\n\nexport function trustDiscount(\n  sourceOpinion: SLOpinion,\n  trust: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const weight = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, Math.abs(trust)));\n  return opinion(\n    weight * sourceOpinion.b,\n    weight * sourceOpinion.d,\n    1 - weight * (sourceOpinion.b + sourceOpinion.d),\n    sourceOpinion.a\n  );\n}\n\nconst EPSILON = 1e-9;\n\nfunction childBaseRateFallback(\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number | undefined\n): number {\n  if (fallbackBaseRate !== undefined) {\n    return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, fallbackBaseRate));\n  }\n\n  if (Math.abs(ifTrue.a - 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context.ifFalse.b;\n  const disbeliefGap = context.ifFalse.d - context.ifTrue.d;\n  const lowerVacuous = usesLowerVacuousBranch(context);\n  const lowerAntecedent = usesLowerAntecedentBranch(context);\n\n  if (lowerVacuous && lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      context.opinionA.a *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b),\n      context.projectedAntecedent * context.childBaseRate\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerVacuous) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      context.opinionA.a *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d) *\n        beliefGap,\n      context.projectedAntecedentComplement *\n        context.childBaseRate *\n        disbeliefGap\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b) *\n        disbeliefGap,\n      context.projectedAntecedent * (1 - context.childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n    );\n  }\n\n  return correctionOrZero(\n    (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n      context.opinionA.u *\n      (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d),\n    context.projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - context.childBaseRate)\n  );\n}\n\nfunction computeFalseDominantDeductionCorrection(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): number {\n  const beliefGap = context.ifFalse.b - context.ifTrue.b;\n  const disbeliefGap = context.ifTrue.d - context.ifFalse.d;\n  const lowerVacuous = usesLowerVacuousBranch(context);\n  const lowerAntecedent = usesLowerAntecedentBranch(context);\n\n  if (lowerVacuous && lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d) *\n        beliefGap,\n      context.projectedAntecedent * context.childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerVacuous) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      (1 - context.opinionA.a) *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b),\n      context.projectedAntecedentComplement * context.childBaseRate\n    );\n  }\n\n  if (lowerAntecedent) {\n    return correctionOrZero(\n      context.opinionA.a *\n        context.opinionA.u *\n        (context.intermediateDisbelief - context.ifTrue.d),\n      context.projectedAntecedent * (1 - context.childBaseRate)\n    );\n  }\n\n  return correctionOrZero(\n    context.opinionA.a *\n      context.opinionA.u *\n      (context.intermediateBelief - context.ifTrue.b) *\n      disbeliefGap,\n    context.projectedAntecedentComplement *\n      (1 - context.childBaseRate) *\n      beliefGap\n  );\n}\n\nfunction computeConditionalDeductionCorrection(\n  context: ConditionalDeductionCorrectionContext\n): number {\n  if (hasNoConditionalDeductionCorrection(context.ifTrue, context.ifFalse)) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n\n  if (\n    context.ifTrue.b > context.ifFalse.b &&\n    context.ifTrue.d <= context.ifFalse.d\n  ) {\n    return computeTrueDominantDeductionCorrection(context);\n  }\n\n  return computeFalseDominantDeductionCorrection(context);\n}\n\nexport function conditionalDeduction(\n  opinionA: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate?: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const fallbackChildBaseRate = childBaseRateFallback(\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackBaseRate\n  );\n  const childBaseRate = computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n    opinionA,\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackChildBaseRate\n  );\n  const projectedAntecedent = project(opinionA);\n  const projectedAntecedentComplement = 1 - projectedAntecedent;\n  const intermediateBelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.b +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.b +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.b * opinionA.a + ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateDisbelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.d +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.d +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.d * opinionA.a + ifFalse.d * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateUncertainty =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.u +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.u +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedVacuousDeduction =\n    ifTrue.b * opinionA.a +\n    ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a) +\n    childBaseRate * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedConditionalA =\n    ifTrue.b + childBaseRate * (1 - ifTrue.b - ifTrue.d);\n  const correction = computeConditionalDeductionCorrection({\n    childBaseRate,\n    ifFalse,\n    ifTrue,\n    intermediateBelief,\n    intermediateDisbelief,\n    opinionA,\n    projectedAntecedent,\n    projectedAntecedentComplement,\n    projectedConditionalA,\n    projectedVacuousDeduction,\n  });\n\n  return opinion(\n    intermediateBelief - childBaseRate * correction,\n    intermediateDisbelief - (1 - childBaseRate) * correction,\n    intermediateUncertainty + correction,\n    childBaseRate\n  );\n}\n\n/**\n * Abductive inference over a conditional.\n * Given an opinion on Y and conditionals P(Y|X), P(Y|~X), infer an opinion on X.\n */\nexport function conditionalAbduction(\n  opinionY: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  baseRateX: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const priorX = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRateX));\n  const probabilityY = project(opinionY);\n  const probabilityGivenTrue = project(ifTrue);\n  const probabilityGivenFalse = project(ifFalse);\n\n  const posteriorIfYDenominator =\n    probabilityGivenTrue * priorX + probabilityGivenFalse * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfY =\n    posteriorIfYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : (probabilityGivenTrue * priorX) / posteriorIfYDenominator;\n\n  const posteriorIfNotYDenominator =\n    (1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX +\n    (1 - probabilityGivenFalse) * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfNotY =\n    posteriorIfNotYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : ((1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX) / posteriorIfNotYDenominator;\n\n  const projectedX =\n    probabilityY * posteriorIfY + (1 - probabilityY) * posteriorIfNotY;\n  const uncertainty = Math.max(\n    opinionY.u * 0.5,\n    probabilityY * ifTrue.u + (1 - probabilityY) * ifFalse.u\n  );\n\n  return opinion(\n    projectedX * (1 - uncertainty),\n    (1 - projectedX) * (1 - uncertainty),\n    uncertainty,\n    priorX\n  );\n}\n\nexport function negate(o: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(o.d, o.b, o.u, 1 - o.a);\n}\n\nexport function constraintFusion(\n  left: SLOpinion,\n  right: SLOpinion,\n  mode: \"pressure\" | \"redistribute\" = \"pressure\"\n): { o1: SLOpinion; o2: SLOpinion } {\n  if (mode === \"redistribute\") {\n    const leftProjected = project(left);\n    const rightProjected = project(right);\n    const total = leftProjected + rightProjected;\n\n    if (total <= 1) {\n      return { o1: left, o2: right };\n    }\n\n    const scale = 1 / total;\n    return {\n      o1: opinion(\n        left.b * scale,\n        left.d + left.b * (1 - scale),\n        left.u,\n        left.a\n      ),\n      o2: opinion(\n        right.b * scale,\n        right.d + right.b * (1 - scale),\n        right.u,\n        right.a\n      ),\n    };\n  }\n\n  const pressureLeft = right.b * 0.5;\n  const pressureRight = left.b * 0.5;\n\n  return {\n    o1: opinion(\n      left.b - pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.d + pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.u,\n      left.a\n    ),\n    o2: opinion(\n      right.b - pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.d + pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.u,\n      right.a\n    ),\n  };\n}\n\nexport function evidenceBalance(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  const total = o.b + o.d;\n  if (total === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  return (o.b - o.d) / total;\n}\n\nexport function areTensioned(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): boolean {\n  return (\n    project(left) > 0.5 &&\n    project(right) > 0.5 &&\n    (left.d > 0.2 || right.d > 0.2)\n  );\n}\n\nexport function informationGain(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  if (o.u === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  if (o.u === 1) {\n    return 1;\n  }\n  return o.u * (1 - Math.abs(o.b - o.d));\n}\n","import type { EdgeMetadata, Opinion, PropagationResult } from \"../../types\";\nimport {\n  constraintFusion,\n  cumulativeFusion,\n  mkOpinion,\n  negate,\n  project,\n  trustDiscount,\n} from \"../subjectiveLogic\";\n\nexport function applyNegativeSupport(\n  source: Opinion,\n  target: Opinion,\n  weight: number,\n  metadata: EdgeMetadata = {}\n): PropagationResult {\n  const sourceOpinion = mkOpinion(source.b, source.d, source.u, source.a);\n  const targetOpinion = mkOpinion(target.b, target.d, target.u, target.a);\n  if (metadata.constraint === \"xor\") {\n    const result = constraintFusion(\n      sourceOpinion,\n      targetOpinion,\n      metadata.normalization ?? \"pressure\"\n    );\n    return {\n      opinion: result.o2,\n      operator: \"constraint_fusion\",\n      rationale: `XOR constraint: source belief at ${project(\n        sourceOpinion\n      ).toFixed(2)} pressures target`,\n    };\n  }\n\n  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(sourceOpinion), Math.abs(weight));\n  return {\n    opinion: cumulativeFusion(targetOpinion, discounted),\n    operator: \"cumulative_fusion\",\n    rationale: `Contradicting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(\n      2\n    )}) from source at ${project(sourceOpinion).toFixed(2)}`,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function applyNegativeEvidence(\n  source: Opinion,\n  target: Opinion,\n  weight: number\n): PropagationResult {\n  const sourceOpinion = mkOpinion(source.b, source.d, source.u, source.a);\n  const targetOpinion = mkOpinion(target.b, target.d, target.u, target.a);\n  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(sourceOpinion), Math.abs(weight));\n  return {\n    opinion: cumulativeFusion(targetOpinion, discounted),\n    operator: \"cumulative_fusion\",\n    rationale: `Contradicting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(2)})`,\n  };\n}\n"]}

package/dist/v1/operations/dynamics/propagation.d.ts

@@ -40,10 +40,10 @@ declare const EDGE_PROPAGATION_RULES: {
     };
 };
 type PropagationEdgeType = keyof typeof EDGE_PROPAGATION_RULES;
-type PropagationTraversalSpec = {
-    edgeType: PropagationEdgeType;
+interface PropagationTraversalSpec {
     direction: PropagationTraversalDirection;
-};
+    edgeType: PropagationEdgeType;
+}
 declare const PROPAGATION_TRAVERSAL_SPECS: readonly PropagationTraversalSpec[];
 declare function isPropagationEdgeType(edgeType: string): edgeType is PropagationEdgeType;
 declare function getPropagationTraversalSpecs(): readonly PropagationTraversalSpec[];