@lucern/confidence 0.1.0-alpha.4 → 0.3.0-alpha.1

package/dist/v1/operations/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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p, u: 0, a: baseRate };\n}\n\nexport function project(o: Opinion): number {\n  return o.b + o.a * o.u;\n}\n\nexport function confidenceLevel(o: Opinion): \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\" {\n  const projected = project(o);\n  if (o.u > 0.5) {\n    return \"low\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.8 && o.u < 0.2) {\n    return \"high\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.6) {\n    return \"medium\";\n  }\n  return \"low\";\n}\n\nexport function cumulativeFusion(left: Opinion, right: Opinion): Opinion {\n  if (left.u === 0 && right.u === 0) {\n    return opinion(\n      (left.b + right.b) / 2,\n      (left.d + right.d) / 2,\n      0,\n      (left.a + right.a) / 2\n    );\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u - left.u * right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous((left.a + right.a) / 2);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (left.u * right.u) / k,\n    (left.a + right.a) / 2\n  );\n}\n\nexport function averagingFusion(left: Opinion, right: Opinion): Opinion {\n  if (left.u === 0 && right.u === 0) {\n    return opinion(\n      (left.b + right.b) / 2,\n      (left.d + right.d) / 2,\n      0,\n      (left.a + right.a) / 2\n    );\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous((left.a + right.a) / 2);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (2 * left.u * right.u) / k,\n    (left.a + right.a) / 2\n  );\n}\n\nexport function trustDiscount(sourceOpinion: Opinion, trust: number): Opinion {\n  const weight = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, Math.abs(trust)));\n  return opinion(\n    weight * sourceOpinion.b,\n    weight * sourceOpinion.d,\n    1 - weight * (sourceOpinion.b + sourceOpinion.d),\n    sourceOpinion.a\n  );\n}\n\nconst EPSILON = 1e-9;\n\nfunction childBaseRateFallback(\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number | undefined\n): number {\n  if (fallbackBaseRate !== undefined) {\n    return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, fallbackBaseRate));\n  }\n\n  if (Math.abs(ifTrue.a - ifFalse.a) <= EPSILON) {\n    return ifTrue.a;\n  }\n\n  return (ifTrue.a + ifFalse.a) / 2;\n}\n\nfunction computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n  opinionA: Opinion,\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number\n): number {\n  const denominator =\n    1 - opinionA.a * ifTrue.u - (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.u;\n\n  if (ifTrue.u + ifFalse.u < 2 - EPSILON && Math.abs(denominator) > EPSILON) {\n    const baseRate =\n      (opinionA.a * ifTrue.b + (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.b) / denominator;\n    if (baseRate >= -EPSILON && baseRate <= 1 + EPSILON) {\n      return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n    }\n  }\n\n  return fallbackBaseRate;\n}\n\nfunction safeCorrectionTerm(\n  numerator: number,\n  denominator: number\n): number | undefined {\n  if (Math.abs(denominator) <= EPSILON) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  const value = numerator / denominator;\n  if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  return Math.max(0, value);\n}\n\nexport function conditionalDeduction(\n  opinionA: Opinion,\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate?: number\n): Opinion {\n  const fallbackChildBaseRate = childBaseRateFallback(\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackBaseRate\n  );\n  const childBaseRate = computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n    opinionA,\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackChildBaseRate\n  );\n  const projectedAntecedent = project(opinionA);\n  const projectedAntecedentComplement = 1 - projectedAntecedent;\n  const intermediateBelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.b +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.b +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.b * opinionA.a + ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateDisbelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.d +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.d +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.d * opinionA.a + ifFalse.d * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateUncertainty =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.u +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.u +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedVacuousDeduction =\n    ifTrue.b * opinionA.a +\n    ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a) +\n    childBaseRate *\n      (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedConditionalA =\n    ifTrue.b + childBaseRate * (1 - ifTrue.b - ifTrue.d);\n  let correction = 0;\n\n  if (\n    (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d > ifFalse.d) ||\n    (ifTrue.b <= ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d)\n  ) {\n    correction = 0;\n  } else if (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d) {\n    const beliefGap = ifTrue.b - ifFalse.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifFalse.d - ifTrue.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) * beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  } else {\n    const beliefGap = ifFalse.b - ifTrue.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifTrue.d - ifFalse.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) *\n            beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    intermediateBelief - childBaseRate * correction,\n    intermediateDisbelief - (1 - childBaseRate) * correction,\n    intermediateUncertainty + correction,\n    childBaseRate\n  );\n}\n\n/**\n * Abductive inference over a conditional.\n * Given an opinion on Y and conditionals P(Y|X), P(Y|~X), infer an opinion on X.\n */\nexport function conditionalAbduction(\n  opinionY: Opinion,\n  ifTrue: Opinion,\n  ifFalse: Opinion,\n  baseRateX: number\n): Opinion {\n  const priorX = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRateX));\n  const probabilityY = project(opinionY);\n  const probabilityGivenTrue = project(ifTrue);\n  const probabilityGivenFalse = project(ifFalse);\n\n  const posteriorIfYDenominator =\n    probabilityGivenTrue * priorX +\n    probabilityGivenFalse * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfY =\n    posteriorIfYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : (probabilityGivenTrue * priorX) / posteriorIfYDenominator;\n\n  const posteriorIfNotYDenominator =\n    (1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX +\n    (1 - probabilityGivenFalse) * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfNotY =\n    posteriorIfNotYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : ((1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX) / posteriorIfNotYDenominator;\n\n  const projectedX =\n    probabilityY * posteriorIfY + (1 - probabilityY) * posteriorIfNotY;\n  const uncertainty = Math.max(\n    opinionY.u * 0.5,\n    probabilityY * ifTrue.u + (1 - probabilityY) * ifFalse.u\n  );\n\n  return opinion(\n    projectedX * (1 - uncertainty),\n    (1 - projectedX) * (1 - uncertainty),\n    uncertainty,\n    priorX\n  );\n}\n\nexport function negate(o: Opinion): Opinion {\n  return { b: o.d, d: o.b, u: o.u, a: 1 - o.a };\n}\n\nexport function constraintFusion(\n  left: Opinion,\n  right: Opinion,\n  mode: \"pressure\" | \"redistribute\" = \"pressure\"\n): { o1: Opinion; o2: Opinion } {\n  if (mode === \"redistribute\") {\n    const leftProjected = project(left);\n    const rightProjected = project(right);\n    const total = leftProjected + rightProjected;\n\n    if (total <= 1) {\n      return { o1: left, o2: right };\n    }\n\n    const scale = 1 / total;\n    return {\n      o1: opinion(\n        left.b * scale,\n        left.d + left.b * (1 - scale),\n        left.u,\n        left.a\n      ),\n      o2: opinion(\n        right.b * scale,\n        right.d + right.b * (1 - scale),\n        right.u,\n        right.a\n      ),\n    };\n  }\n\n  const pressureLeft = right.b * 0.5;\n  const pressureRight = left.b * 0.5;\n\n  return {\n    o1: opinion(\n      left.b - pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.d + pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.u,\n      left.a\n    ),\n    o2: opinion(\n      right.b - pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.d + pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.u,\n      right.a\n    ),\n  };\n}\n\nexport function evidenceBalance(o: Opinion): number {\n  const total = o.b + o.d;\n  if (total === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  return (o.b - o.d) / total;\n}\n\nexport function areTensioned(left: Opinion, right: Opinion): boolean {\n  return (\n    project(left) > 0.5 &&\n    project(right) > 0.5 &&\n    (left.d > 0.2 || right.d > 0.2)\n  );\n}\n\nexport function informationGain(o: Opinion): number {\n  if (o.u === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  if (o.u === 1) {\n    return 1;\n  }\n  return o.u * (1 - Math.abs(o.b - o.d));\n}\n","/**\n * LKC-3 decision note:\n * 1. Lucern already persists posterior opinions in `beliefConfidence`.\n * 2. It does not persist a full per-observation Beta event stream on every path.\n * 3. Reweighting raw observations would therefore force new schema + replay logic.\n * 4. This operator decays the formed opinion instead of reconstructing old evidence.\n * 5. The decay is exponential over epistemic age with a configurable half-life.\n * 6. Belief/disbelief mass shrinks over time and returns to uncertainty.\n * 7. Base rate `a` stays fixed, so the projection moves back toward the prior.\n * 8. The reference clock is \"when this posterior became knowable\" (`assessedAt`).\n * 9. That makes Invariant 9 operational with the smallest implementation surface.\n * 10. Per-observation decay can be layered later without breaking this API.\n */\n\nimport type { Opinion } from \"../types\";\nimport { trustDiscount } from \"./subjectiveLogic\";\n\nexport const DEFAULT_TEMPORAL_DECAY_HALF_LIFE_MS =\n  90 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;\n\nexport type TemporalDecayParams = {\n  referenceTime: Date | number;\n  halfLifeMs?: number;\n};\n\nfunction toEpochMs(value: Date | number): number | undefined {\n  if (typeof value === \"number\" && Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    return value;\n  }\n\n  if (value instanceof Date) {\n    const epochMs = value.getTime();\n    return Number.isFinite(epochMs) ? epochMs : undefined;\n  }\n\n  return undefined;\n}\n\nfunction normalizeHalfLifeMs(halfLifeMs?: number): number {\n  if (halfLifeMs === undefined || !Number.isFinite(halfLifeMs)) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n\n  return Math.max(0, halfLifeMs);\n}\n\nexport function temporalDecay(\n  sourceOpinion: Opinion,\n  now: Date | number,\n  decayParams: TemporalDecayParams\n): Opinion {\n  const halfLifeMs = normalizeHalfLifeMs(decayParams.halfLifeMs);\n  if (halfLifeMs === 0) {\n    return { ...sourceOpinion };\n  }\n\n  const nowMs = toEpochMs(now);\n  const referenceTimeMs = toEpochMs(decayParams.referenceTime);\n  if (nowMs === undefined || referenceTimeMs === undefined) {\n    return { ...sourceOpinion };\n  }\n\n  const ageMs = Math.max(0, nowMs - referenceTimeMs);\n  if (ageMs === 0) {\n    return { ...sourceOpinion };\n  }\n\n  const retainedEvidenceWeight = Math.pow(0.5, ageMs / halfLifeMs);\n  return trustDiscount(sourceOpinion, retainedEvidenceWeight);\n}\n"]}
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Math.max(0, belief) : 0;\n  const d = Number.isFinite(disbelief) ? Math.max(0, disbelief) : 0;\n  const u = Number.isFinite(uncertainty) ? Math.max(0, uncertainty) : 0;\n  const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n  const sum = b + d + u;\n\n  if (sum === 0) {\n    return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a } as SLOpinion;\n  }\n\n  return {\n    b: b / sum,\n    d: d / sum,\n    u: u / sum,\n    a,\n  } as SLOpinion;\n}\n\nexport const opinion = mkOpinion;\n\nexport function vacuous(baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(0, 0, 1, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function dogmatic(probability: number, baseRate: number): SLOpinion {\n  const p = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, probability));\n  return mkOpinion(p, 1 - p, 0, baseRate);\n}\n\nexport function project(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  return o.b + o.a * o.u;\n}\n\nexport function confidenceLevel(o: SLOpinion): \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\" {\n  const projected = project(o);\n  if (o.u > 0.5) {\n    return \"low\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.8 && o.u < 0.2) {\n    return \"high\";\n  }\n  if (projected >= 0.6) {\n    return \"medium\";\n  }\n  return \"low\";\n}\n\nexport function cumulativeFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  if (left.u === 0 && right.u === 0) {\n    return opinion(\n      (left.b + right.b) / 2,\n      (left.d + right.d) / 2,\n      0,\n      (left.a + right.a) / 2\n    );\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u - left.u * right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous((left.a + right.a) / 2);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (left.u * right.u) / k,\n    (left.a + right.a) / 2\n  );\n}\n\nexport function averagingFusion(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  if (left.u === 0 && right.u === 0) {\n    return opinion(\n      (left.b + right.b) / 2,\n      (left.d + right.d) / 2,\n      0,\n      (left.a + right.a) / 2\n    );\n  }\n\n  const k = left.u + right.u;\n  if (k === 0) {\n    return vacuous((left.a + right.a) / 2);\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    (left.b * right.u + right.b * left.u) / k,\n    (left.d * right.u + right.d * left.u) / k,\n    (2 * left.u * right.u) / k,\n    (left.a + right.a) / 2\n  );\n}\n\nexport function trustDiscount(sourceOpinion: SLOpinion, trust: number): SLOpinion {\n  const weight = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, Math.abs(trust)));\n  return opinion(\n    weight * sourceOpinion.b,\n    weight * sourceOpinion.d,\n    1 - weight * (sourceOpinion.b + sourceOpinion.d),\n    sourceOpinion.a\n  );\n}\n\nconst EPSILON = 1e-9;\n\nfunction childBaseRateFallback(\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number | undefined\n): number {\n  if (fallbackBaseRate !== undefined) {\n    return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, fallbackBaseRate));\n  }\n\n  if (Math.abs(ifTrue.a - ifFalse.a) <= EPSILON) {\n    return ifTrue.a;\n  }\n\n  return (ifTrue.a + ifFalse.a) / 2;\n}\n\nfunction computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n  opinionA: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate: number\n): number {\n  const denominator =\n    1 - opinionA.a * ifTrue.u - (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.u;\n\n  if (ifTrue.u + ifFalse.u < 2 - EPSILON && Math.abs(denominator) > EPSILON) {\n    const baseRate =\n      (opinionA.a * ifTrue.b + (1 - opinionA.a) * ifFalse.b) / denominator;\n    if (baseRate >= -EPSILON && baseRate <= 1 + EPSILON) {\n      return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));\n    }\n  }\n\n  return fallbackBaseRate;\n}\n\nfunction safeCorrectionTerm(\n  numerator: number,\n  denominator: number\n): number | undefined {\n  if (Math.abs(denominator) <= EPSILON) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  const value = numerator / denominator;\n  if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    return undefined;\n  }\n\n  return Math.max(0, value);\n}\n\nexport function conditionalDeduction(\n  opinionA: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  fallbackBaseRate?: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const fallbackChildBaseRate = childBaseRateFallback(\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackBaseRate\n  );\n  const childBaseRate = computeConditionalDeductionBaseRate(\n    opinionA,\n    ifTrue,\n    ifFalse,\n    fallbackChildBaseRate\n  );\n  const projectedAntecedent = project(opinionA);\n  const projectedAntecedentComplement = 1 - projectedAntecedent;\n  const intermediateBelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.b +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.b +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.b * opinionA.a + ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateDisbelief =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.d +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.d +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.d * opinionA.a + ifFalse.d * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const intermediateUncertainty =\n    opinionA.b * ifTrue.u +\n    opinionA.d * ifFalse.u +\n    opinionA.u * (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedVacuousDeduction =\n    ifTrue.b * opinionA.a +\n    ifFalse.b * (1 - opinionA.a) +\n    childBaseRate *\n      (ifTrue.u * opinionA.a + ifFalse.u * (1 - opinionA.a));\n  const projectedConditionalA =\n    ifTrue.b + childBaseRate * (1 - ifTrue.b - ifTrue.d);\n  let correction = 0;\n\n  if (\n    (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d > ifFalse.d) ||\n    (ifTrue.b <= ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d)\n  ) {\n    correction = 0;\n  } else if (ifTrue.b > ifFalse.b && ifTrue.d <= ifFalse.d) {\n    const beliefGap = ifTrue.b - ifFalse.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifFalse.d - ifTrue.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) * beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  } else {\n    const beliefGap = ifFalse.b - ifTrue.b;\n    const disbeliefGap = ifTrue.d - ifFalse.d;\n\n    if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d) *\n            beliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedent * childBaseRate * disbeliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction <= projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent > opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          (1 - opinionA.a) * opinionA.u * (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b),\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * childBaseRate\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else if (\n      projectedVacuousDeduction > projectedConditionalA &&\n      projectedAntecedent <= opinionA.a\n    ) {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a * opinionA.u * (intermediateDisbelief - ifTrue.d),\n          projectedAntecedent * (1 - childBaseRate)\n        ) ?? 0;\n    } else {\n      correction =\n        safeCorrectionTerm(\n          opinionA.a *\n            opinionA.u *\n            (intermediateBelief - ifTrue.b) *\n            disbeliefGap,\n          projectedAntecedentComplement * (1 - childBaseRate) * beliefGap\n        ) ?? 0;\n    }\n  }\n\n  return opinion(\n    intermediateBelief - childBaseRate * correction,\n    intermediateDisbelief - (1 - childBaseRate) * correction,\n    intermediateUncertainty + correction,\n    childBaseRate\n  );\n}\n\n/**\n * Abductive inference over a conditional.\n * Given an opinion on Y and conditionals P(Y|X), P(Y|~X), infer an opinion on X.\n */\nexport function conditionalAbduction(\n  opinionY: SLOpinion,\n  ifTrue: SLOpinion,\n  ifFalse: SLOpinion,\n  baseRateX: number\n): SLOpinion {\n  const priorX = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRateX));\n  const probabilityY = project(opinionY);\n  const probabilityGivenTrue = project(ifTrue);\n  const probabilityGivenFalse = project(ifFalse);\n\n  const posteriorIfYDenominator =\n    probabilityGivenTrue * priorX +\n    probabilityGivenFalse * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfY =\n    posteriorIfYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : (probabilityGivenTrue * priorX) / posteriorIfYDenominator;\n\n  const posteriorIfNotYDenominator =\n    (1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX +\n    (1 - probabilityGivenFalse) * (1 - priorX);\n  const posteriorIfNotY =\n    posteriorIfNotYDenominator === 0\n      ? priorX\n      : ((1 - probabilityGivenTrue) * priorX) / posteriorIfNotYDenominator;\n\n  const projectedX =\n    probabilityY * posteriorIfY + (1 - probabilityY) * posteriorIfNotY;\n  const uncertainty = Math.max(\n    opinionY.u * 0.5,\n    probabilityY * ifTrue.u + (1 - probabilityY) * ifFalse.u\n  );\n\n  return opinion(\n    projectedX * (1 - uncertainty),\n    (1 - projectedX) * (1 - uncertainty),\n    uncertainty,\n    priorX\n  );\n}\n\nexport function negate(o: SLOpinion): SLOpinion {\n  return mkOpinion(o.d, o.b, o.u, 1 - o.a);\n}\n\nexport function constraintFusion(\n  left: SLOpinion,\n  right: SLOpinion,\n  mode: \"pressure\" | \"redistribute\" = \"pressure\"\n): { o1: SLOpinion; o2: SLOpinion } {\n  if (mode === \"redistribute\") {\n    const leftProjected = project(left);\n    const rightProjected = project(right);\n    const total = leftProjected + rightProjected;\n\n    if (total <= 1) {\n      return { o1: left, o2: right };\n    }\n\n    const scale = 1 / total;\n    return {\n      o1: opinion(\n        left.b * scale,\n        left.d + left.b * (1 - scale),\n        left.u,\n        left.a\n      ),\n      o2: opinion(\n        right.b * scale,\n        right.d + right.b * (1 - scale),\n        right.u,\n        right.a\n      ),\n    };\n  }\n\n  const pressureLeft = right.b * 0.5;\n  const pressureRight = left.b * 0.5;\n\n  return {\n    o1: opinion(\n      left.b - pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.d + pressureLeft * 0.3,\n      left.u,\n      left.a\n    ),\n    o2: opinion(\n      right.b - pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.d + pressureRight * 0.3,\n      right.u,\n      right.a\n    ),\n  };\n}\n\nexport function evidenceBalance(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  const total = o.b + o.d;\n  if (total === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  return (o.b - o.d) / total;\n}\n\nexport function areTensioned(left: SLOpinion, right: SLOpinion): boolean {\n  return (\n    project(left) > 0.5 &&\n    project(right) > 0.5 &&\n    (left.d > 0.2 || right.d > 0.2)\n  );\n}\n\nexport function informationGain(o: SLOpinion): number {\n  if (o.u === 0) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n  if (o.u === 1) {\n    return 1;\n  }\n  return o.u * (1 - Math.abs(o.b - o.d));\n}\n","/**\n * LKC-3 decision note:\n * 1. Lucern already persists posterior opinions in `beliefConfidence`.\n * 2. It does not persist a full per-observation Beta event stream on every path.\n * 3. Reweighting raw observations would therefore force new schema + replay logic.\n * 4. This operator decays the formed opinion instead of reconstructing old evidence.\n * 5. The decay is exponential over epistemic age with a configurable half-life.\n * 6. Belief/disbelief mass shrinks over time and returns to uncertainty.\n * 7. Base rate `a` stays fixed, so the projection moves back toward the prior.\n * 8. The reference clock is \"when this posterior became knowable\" (`assessedAt`).\n * 9. That makes Invariant 9 operational with the smallest implementation surface.\n * 10. Per-observation decay can be layered later without breaking this API.\n */\n\nimport type { Opinion } from \"../types\";\nimport { mkOpinion, trustDiscount } from \"./subjectiveLogic\";\n\nexport const DEFAULT_TEMPORAL_DECAY_HALF_LIFE_MS =\n  90 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;\n\nexport type TemporalDecayParams = {\n  referenceTime: Date | number;\n  halfLifeMs?: number;\n};\n\nfunction toEpochMs(value: Date | number): number | undefined {\n  if (typeof value === \"number\" && Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    return value;\n  }\n\n  if (value instanceof Date) {\n    const epochMs = value.getTime();\n    return Number.isFinite(epochMs) ? epochMs : undefined;\n  }\n\n  return undefined;\n}\n\nfunction normalizeHalfLifeMs(halfLifeMs?: number): number {\n  if (halfLifeMs === undefined || !Number.isFinite(halfLifeMs)) {\n    return 0;\n  }\n\n  return Math.max(0, halfLifeMs);\n}\n\nexport function temporalDecay(\n  sourceOpinion: Opinion,\n  now: Date | number,\n  decayParams: TemporalDecayParams\n): Opinion {\n  const halfLifeMs = normalizeHalfLifeMs(decayParams.halfLifeMs);\n  if (halfLifeMs === 0) {\n    return { ...sourceOpinion };\n  }\n\n  const nowMs = toEpochMs(now);\n  const referenceTimeMs = toEpochMs(decayParams.referenceTime);\n  if (nowMs === undefined || referenceTimeMs === undefined) {\n    return { ...sourceOpinion };\n  }\n\n  const ageMs = Math.max(0, nowMs - referenceTimeMs);\n  if (ageMs === 0) {\n    return { ...sourceOpinion };\n  }\n\n  const retainedEvidenceWeight = Math.pow(0.5, ageMs / halfLifeMs);\n  return trustDiscount(\n    mkOpinion(sourceOpinion.b, sourceOpinion.d, sourceOpinion.u, sourceOpinion.a),\n    retainedEvidenceWeight\n  );\n}\n"]}

package/dist/v1/operations/lucern.d.ts

@@ -1,14 +1,16 @@
 export { clamp01, hasProjectedOpinionChanged, opinionFromScalar, readOpinionFromRecord, toDogmaticOpinion, toStoredOpinionFields } from './scoring.js';
+export { fromStorage, toStorage } from '../codec.js';
 export { temporalDecay } from './temporalDecay.js';
 export { detectTupleContradiction, evaluateTupleContradictionTransition, normalizeTupleContradictionPolicy } from './contradiction/detectTupleContradiction.js';
 export { areTensioned, confidenceLevel, constraintFusion, evidenceBalance, informationGain } from './subjectiveLogic/index.js';
 export { getPropagationTraversalSpecs, isPropagationEdgeType, propagateAllEdges, propagateThroughEdge } from './dynamics/propagation.js';
-export { bayesianUpdate, reviseConfidence } from './dynamics/revision.js';
+export { bayesianUpdate, reviseConfidence, reviseConfidenceOpinion } from './dynamics/revision.js';
 export { computeBaseDecay, computeDeadlineUrgency, computeEffectiveDecay, decay, getRescoringSchedule } from './dynamics/decay.js';
 export { applyNegativeEvidence, applyNegativeSupport } from './dynamics/defeat.js';
 export { buildComparisonRationale, buildEvidentialRationale, compareMetricValue, createInheritedContractRecord, deriveContractModulationPlan, deriveContractStatus, deriveVerificationTrigger, getEvaluatorInputRecord, normalizeEvidentialAction, parseComparisonOperator, parseEvidentialEvaluatorConfig, parseMarketIndexComparatorConfig, parseMetricCheckerConfig, parseNumericThreshold, parseReferenceCheckCounterConfig, parseTemporalDeadlineConfig, pickFiniteNumber, resolveComparisonResult } from './contracts/epistemicContract.js';
 import '../types.js';
+import 'zod';
 
-declare const LUCERN_SPECIFIC_OPERATOR_NAMES: readonly ["clamp01", "toStoredOpinionFields", "readOpinionFromRecord", "opinionFromScalar", "temporalDecay", "toDogmaticOpinion", "hasProjectedOpinionChanged", "normalizeTupleContradictionPolicy", "detectTupleContradiction", "evaluateTupleContradictionTransition", "confidenceLevel", "constraintFusion", "evidenceBalance", "areTensioned", "informationGain", "isPropagationEdgeType", "getPropagationTraversalSpecs", "propagateThroughEdge", "propagateAllEdges", "bayesianUpdate", "reviseConfidence", "computeBaseDecay", "computeDeadlineUrgency", "computeEffectiveDecay", "getRescoringSchedule", "decay", "applyNegativeSupport", "applyNegativeEvidence", "deriveContractStatus", "deriveVerificationTrigger", "deriveContractModulationPlan", "createInheritedContractRecord", "normalizeEvidentialAction", "parseComparisonOperator", "parseNumericThreshold", "pickFiniteNumber", "getEvaluatorInputRecord", "parseEvidentialEvaluatorConfig", "compareMetricValue", "resolveComparisonResult", "buildComparisonRationale", "buildEvidentialRationale", "parseMetricCheckerConfig", "parseReferenceCheckCounterConfig", "parseTemporalDeadlineConfig", "parseMarketIndexComparatorConfig"];
+declare const LUCERN_SPECIFIC_OPERATOR_NAMES: readonly ["clamp01", "fromStorage", "toStorage", "toStoredOpinionFields", "readOpinionFromRecord", "opinionFromScalar", "temporalDecay", "toDogmaticOpinion", "hasProjectedOpinionChanged", "normalizeTupleContradictionPolicy", "detectTupleContradiction", "evaluateTupleContradictionTransition", "confidenceLevel", "constraintFusion", "evidenceBalance", "areTensioned", "informationGain", "isPropagationEdgeType", "getPropagationTraversalSpecs", "propagateThroughEdge", "propagateAllEdges", "bayesianUpdate", "reviseConfidence", "reviseConfidenceOpinion", "computeBaseDecay", "computeDeadlineUrgency", "computeEffectiveDecay", "getRescoringSchedule", "decay", "applyNegativeSupport", "applyNegativeEvidence", "deriveContractStatus", "deriveVerificationTrigger", "deriveContractModulationPlan", "createInheritedContractRecord", "normalizeEvidentialAction", "parseComparisonOperator", "parseNumericThreshold", "pickFiniteNumber", "getEvaluatorInputRecord", "parseEvidentialEvaluatorConfig", "compareMetricValue", "resolveComparisonResult", "buildComparisonRationale", "buildEvidentialRationale", "parseMetricCheckerConfig", "parseReferenceCheckCounterConfig", "parseTemporalDeadlineConfig", "parseMarketIndexComparatorConfig"];
 
 export { LUCERN_SPECIFIC_OPERATOR_NAMES };

package/dist/v1/operations/lucern.js

@@ -1,8 +1,10 @@
+import { z } from 'zod';
+
 // src/v1/operations/subjectiveLogic/index.ts
-function opinion(belief, disbelief, uncertainty, baseRate = 0.5) {
-  const b = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, belief));
-  const d = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, disbelief));
-  const u = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, uncertainty));
+function mkOpinion(belief, disbelief, uncertainty, baseRate) {
+  const b = Number.isFinite(belief) ? Math.max(0, belief) : 0;
+  const d = Number.isFinite(disbelief) ? Math.max(0, disbelief) : 0;
+  const u = Number.isFinite(uncertainty) ? Math.max(0, uncertainty) : 0;
   const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, baseRate));
   const sum = b + d + u;
   if (sum === 0) {
@@ -15,8 +17,9 @@ function opinion(belief, disbelief, uncertainty, baseRate = 0.5) {
     a
   };
 }
-function vacuous(baseRate = 0.5) {
-  return { b: 0, d: 0, u: 1, a: baseRate };
+var opinion = mkOpinion;
+function vacuous(baseRate) {
+  return mkOpinion(0, 0, 1, baseRate);
 }
 function project(o) {
   return o.b + o.a * o.u;
@@ -172,7 +175,7 @@ function conditionalDeduction(opinionA, ifTrue, ifFalse, fallbackBaseRate) {
   );
 }
 function negate(o) {
-  return { b: o.d, d: o.b, u: o.u, a: 1 - o.a };
+  return mkOpinion(o.d, o.b, o.u, 1 - o.a);
 }
 function constraintFusion(left, right, mode = "pressure") {
   if (mode === "redistribute") {
@@ -239,6 +242,15 @@ function informationGain(o) {
 function finiteNumber(value) {
   return typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value) ? value : void 0;
 }
+function requiredOpinionNumber(label, ...values) {
+  for (const value of values) {
+    const numberValue = finiteNumber(value);
+    if (numberValue !== void 0) {
+      return numberValue;
+    }
+  }
+  throw new Error(`Opinion record is missing required ${label}.`);
+}
 function clamp01(value) {
   return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, value));
 }
@@ -253,34 +265,56 @@ function toStoredOpinionFields(opinion2) {
     baseRate: opinion2.a
   };
 }
-function readOpinionFromRecord(source, fallback = {}) {
+function readOpinionFromRecord(source) {
   const record = source && typeof source === "object" ? source : {};
-  return {
-    b: finiteNumber(record.b) ?? finiteNumber(record.belief) ?? finiteNumber(record.slBelief) ?? finiteNumber(record.opinion_b) ?? fallback.b ?? 0,
-    d: finiteNumber(record.d) ?? finiteNumber(record.disbelief) ?? finiteNumber(record.slDisbelief) ?? finiteNumber(record.opinion_d) ?? fallback.d ?? 0,
-    u: finiteNumber(record.u) ?? finiteNumber(record.uncertainty) ?? finiteNumber(record.slUncertainty) ?? finiteNumber(record.opinion_u) ?? fallback.u ?? 1,
-    a: finiteNumber(record.a) ?? finiteNumber(record.baseRate) ?? finiteNumber(record.slBaseRate) ?? finiteNumber(record.opinion_a) ?? fallback.a ?? 0.5
-  };
+  return mkOpinion(
+    requiredOpinionNumber(
+      "belief",
+      record.b,
+      record.belief,
+      record.slBelief,
+      record.opinion_b
+    ),
+    requiredOpinionNumber(
+      "disbelief",
+      record.d,
+      record.disbelief,
+      record.slDisbelief,
+      record.opinion_d
+    ),
+    requiredOpinionNumber(
+      "uncertainty",
+      record.u,
+      record.uncertainty,
+      record.slUncertainty,
+      record.opinion_u
+    ),
+    requiredOpinionNumber(
+      "baseRate",
+      record.a,
+      record.baseRate,
+      record.slBaseRate,
+      record.opinion_a
+    )
+  );
 }
 function opinionFromScalar(value, mode, options) {
   const clampedValue = clamp01(value);
-  const baseRate = clamp01(options?.baseRate ?? 0.5);
+  const baseRate = options?.baseRate === void 0 ? void 0 : clamp01(options.baseRate);
   switch (mode) {
     case "base_rate":
-      return {
-        b: 0,
-        d: 0,
-        u: 1,
-        a: clampedValue
-      };
+      return mkOpinion(0, 0, 1, clampedValue);
     case "dogmatic":
-      return {
-        b: clampedValue,
-        d: 1 - clampedValue,
-        u: 0,
-        a: baseRate
-      };
+      if (baseRate === void 0) {
+        throw new Error('opinionFromScalar(value, "dogmatic") requires options.baseRate.');
+      }
+      return mkOpinion(clampedValue, 1 - clampedValue, 0, baseRate);
     case "projected_with_u": {
+      if (baseRate === void 0) {
+        throw new Error(
+          'opinionFromScalar(value, "projected_with_u") requires options.baseRate.'
+        );
+      }
       const uncertainty = options?.uncertainty;
       if (uncertainty === void 0) {
         throw new Error(
@@ -289,22 +323,57 @@ function opinionFromScalar(value, mode, options) {
       }
       const clampedUncertainty = clamp01(uncertainty);
       const evidenceWeight = 1 - clampedUncertainty;
-      return {
-        b: clampedValue * evidenceWeight,
-        d: (1 - clampedValue) * evidenceWeight,
-        u: clampedUncertainty,
-        a: baseRate
-      };
+      return mkOpinion(
+        clampedValue * evidenceWeight,
+        (1 - clampedValue) * evidenceWeight,
+        clampedUncertainty,
+        baseRate
+      );
     }
   }
   throw new Error(`Unsupported opinionFromScalar mode: ${mode}`);
 }
-function toDogmaticOpinion(confidence, baseRate = 0.5) {
+function toDogmaticOpinion(confidence, baseRate) {
   return opinionFromScalar(confidence, "dogmatic", { baseRate });
 }
 function hasProjectedOpinionChanged(current, next, tolerance = 0.01) {
   return Math.abs(confidenceFromOpinion(next) - confidenceFromOpinion(current)) >= tolerance;
 }
+var SL_EPSILON = 1e-9;
+z.object({
+  b: z.number(),
+  d: z.number(),
+  u: z.number(),
+  a: z.number()
+}).refine((o) => Math.abs(o.b + o.d + o.u - 1) < SL_EPSILON, {
+  message: "SL invariant b+d+u=1 violated"
+});
+function fromStorage(fields) {
+  const sum = fields.belief + fields.disbelief + fields.uncertainty;
+  const opinion2 = mkOpinion(
+    fields.belief,
+    fields.disbelief,
+    fields.uncertainty,
+    fields.baseRate
+  );
+  if (Math.abs(sum - 1) < SL_EPSILON) {
+    return { ok: true, opinion: opinion2 };
+  }
+  return {
+    ok: false,
+    opinion: opinion2,
+    repairNeeded: true,
+    reason: `Stored fields sum to ${sum.toFixed(6)}, not 1; normalized on read`
+  };
+}
+function toStorage(opinion2) {
+  return {
+    belief: opinion2.b,
+    disbelief: opinion2.d,
+    uncertainty: opinion2.u,
+    baseRate: opinion2.a
+  };
+}
 function toEpochMs(value) {
   if (typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value)) {
     return value;
@@ -336,7 +405,10 @@ function temporalDecay(sourceOpinion, now, decayParams) {
     return { ...sourceOpinion };
   }
   const retainedEvidenceWeight = Math.pow(0.5, ageMs / halfLifeMs);
-  return trustDiscount(sourceOpinion, retainedEvidenceWeight);
+  return trustDiscount(
+    mkOpinion(sourceOpinion.b, sourceOpinion.d, sourceOpinion.u, sourceOpinion.a),
+    retainedEvidenceWeight
+  );
 }
 
 // src/v1/operations/contradiction/detectTupleContradiction.ts
@@ -373,7 +445,14 @@ function evaluateTupleContradictionTransition(args) {
 
 // src/v1/operations/dynamics/cascade.ts
 function dampedDependencyOpinion(dependencyOpinion, beliefOpinion, mode = "continuous", threshold = 0.3) {
-  const dependencyProjection = project(dependencyOpinion);
+  const dependencyProjection = project(
+    mkOpinion(
+      dependencyOpinion.b,
+      dependencyOpinion.d,
+      dependencyOpinion.u,
+      dependencyOpinion.a
+    )
+  );
   if (mode === "threshold") {
     if (dependencyProjection < threshold) {
       return opinion(
@@ -398,40 +477,49 @@ function dampedDependencyCascade(dependencyOpinion, beliefOpinion, mode = "conti
     opinion: dampedDependencyOpinion(dependencyOpinion, beliefOpinion, mode),
     operator: "dependency_cascade",
     rationale: `Damped dependency cascade (${mode}): prerequisite at ${project(
-      dependencyOpinion
+      mkOpinion(
+        dependencyOpinion.b,
+        dependencyOpinion.d,
+        dependencyOpinion.u,
+        dependencyOpinion.a
+      )
     ).toFixed(2)}`
   };
 }
 
 // src/v1/operations/dynamics/defeat.ts
 function applyNegativeSupport(source, target, weight, metadata = {}) {
+  const sourceOpinion = mkOpinion(source.b, source.d, source.u, source.a);
+  const targetOpinion = mkOpinion(target.b, target.d, target.u, target.a);
   if (metadata.constraint === "xor") {
     const result = constraintFusion(
-      source,
-      target,
+      sourceOpinion,
+      targetOpinion,
       metadata.normalization ?? "pressure"
     );
     return {
       opinion: result.o2,
       operator: "constraint_fusion",
-      rationale: `XOR constraint: source belief at ${project(source).toFixed(
-        2
-      )} pressures target`
+      rationale: `XOR constraint: source belief at ${project(
+        sourceOpinion
+      ).toFixed(2)} pressures target`
     };
   }
-  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(source), Math.abs(weight));
+  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(sourceOpinion), Math.abs(weight));
   return {
-    opinion: cumulativeFusion(target, discounted),
+    opinion: cumulativeFusion(targetOpinion, discounted),
     operator: "cumulative_fusion",
     rationale: `Contradicting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(
       2
-    )}) from source at ${project(source).toFixed(2)}`
+    )}) from source at ${project(sourceOpinion).toFixed(2)}`
   };
 }
 function applyNegativeEvidence(source, target, weight) {
-  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(source), Math.abs(weight));
+  const sourceOpinion = mkOpinion(source.b, source.d, source.u, source.a);
+  const targetOpinion = mkOpinion(target.b, target.d, target.u, target.a);
+  const discounted = trustDiscount(negate(sourceOpinion), Math.abs(weight));
   return {
-    opinion: cumulativeFusion(target, discounted),
+    opinion: cumulativeFusion(targetOpinion, discounted),
     operator: "cumulative_fusion",
     rationale: `Contradicting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(2)})`
   };
@@ -442,28 +530,32 @@ var EDGE_PROPAGATION_RULES = {
   supports: {
     direction: "outgoing",
     handler: (source, target, weight, metadata) => {
+      const sourceOpinion = mkOpinion(source.b, source.d, source.u, source.a);
+      const targetOpinion = mkOpinion(target.b, target.d, target.u, target.a);
       if (weight < 0) {
-        return applyNegativeSupport(source, target, weight, metadata);
+        return applyNegativeSupport(sourceOpinion, targetOpinion, weight, metadata);
       }
-      const discounted = trustDiscount(source, weight);
+      const discounted = trustDiscount(sourceOpinion, weight);
       return {
-        opinion: cumulativeFusion(target, discounted),
+        opinion: cumulativeFusion(targetOpinion, discounted),
         operator: "cumulative_fusion",
         rationale: `Supporting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(
           2
-        )}) from source at ${project(source).toFixed(2)}`
+        )}) from source at ${project(sourceOpinion).toFixed(2)}`
       };
     }
   },
   informs: {
     direction: "outgoing",
     handler: (source, target, weight) => {
+      const sourceOpinion = mkOpinion(source.b, source.d, source.u, source.a);
+      const targetOpinion = mkOpinion(target.b, target.d, target.u, target.a);
       if (weight < 0) {
-        return applyNegativeEvidence(source, target, weight);
+        return applyNegativeEvidence(sourceOpinion, targetOpinion, weight);
       }
-      const discounted = trustDiscount(source, Math.abs(weight));
+      const discounted = trustDiscount(sourceOpinion, Math.abs(weight));
       return {
-        opinion: cumulativeFusion(target, discounted),
+        opinion: cumulativeFusion(targetOpinion, discounted),
         operator: "cumulative_fusion",
         rationale: `Supporting evidence (weight=${weight.toFixed(2)})`
       };
@@ -472,23 +564,35 @@ var EDGE_PROPAGATION_RULES = {
   depends_on: {
     direction: "incoming",
     handler: (source, target, _weight, metadata) => {
+      const sourceOpinion = mkOpinion(source.b, source.d, source.u, source.a);
+      const targetOpinion = mkOpinion(target.b, target.d, target.u, target.a);
       if (metadata.conditionalA && metadata.conditionalNotA) {
         return {
           opinion: conditionalDeduction(
-            source,
-            metadata.conditionalA,
-            metadata.conditionalNotA,
-            target.a
+            sourceOpinion,
+            mkOpinion(
+              metadata.conditionalA.b,
+              metadata.conditionalA.d,
+              metadata.conditionalA.u,
+              metadata.conditionalA.a
+            ),
+            mkOpinion(
+              metadata.conditionalNotA.b,
+              metadata.conditionalNotA.d,
+              metadata.conditionalNotA.u,
+              metadata.conditionalNotA.a
+            ),
+            targetOpinion.a
           ),
           operator: "conditional_deduction",
           rationale: `Conditional deduction: prerequisite at ${project(
-            source
+            sourceOpinion
           ).toFixed(2)}`
         };
       }
       return dampedDependencyCascade(
-        source,
-        target,
+        sourceOpinion,
+        targetOpinion,
         metadata.propagation ?? "continuous"
       );
     }
@@ -580,10 +684,6 @@ function normalizeBaseRateVector(baseRate, size) {
   if (size === 0) {
     return [];
   }
-  const fallback = Array.from({ length: size }, () => 1 / size);
-  if (!baseRate) {
-    return fallback;
-  }
   if (baseRate.length !== size) {
     throw new Error(
       `Base-rate vector length ${baseRate.length} must match evidence vector length ${size}.`
@@ -592,11 +692,11 @@ function normalizeBaseRateVector(baseRate, size) {
   const normalized = baseRate.map((value) => clampNonNegative(value));
   const total = normalized.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0);
   if (total === 0) {
-    return fallback;
+    throw new Error("Base-rate vector must contain at least one positive value.");
   }
   return normalized.map((value) => value / total);
 }
-function opinionFromDirichlet(alpha, nonInformativeWeight = DEFAULT_NON_INFORMATIVE_WEIGHT, baseRate) {
+function opinionFromDirichlet(alpha, nonInformativeWeight, baseRate) {
   const evidence = alpha.map((value) => clampNonNegative(value));
   const safeWeight = normalizeNonInformativeWeight(nonInformativeWeight);
   const normalizedBaseRate = normalizeBaseRateVector(baseRate, evidence.length);
@@ -615,18 +715,18 @@ function opinionFromDirichlet(alpha, nonInformativeWeight = DEFAULT_NON_INFORMAT
     a: normalizedBaseRate
   };
 }
-function opinionFromBeta(alpha, beta, nonInformativeWeight = DEFAULT_NON_INFORMATIVE_WEIGHT, baseRate = 0.5) {
+function opinionFromBeta(alpha, beta, nonInformativeWeight, baseRate) {
   const dirichlet = opinionFromDirichlet(
     [alpha, beta],
     nonInformativeWeight,
     [clamp012(baseRate), 1 - clamp012(baseRate)]
   );
-  return {
-    b: dirichlet.b[0] ?? 0,
-    d: dirichlet.b[1] ?? 0,
-    u: dirichlet.u,
-    a: dirichlet.a[0] ?? clamp012(baseRate)
-  };
+  return mkOpinion(
+    dirichlet.b[0] ?? 0,
+    dirichlet.b[1] ?? 0,
+    dirichlet.u,
+    dirichlet.a[0] ?? clamp012(baseRate)
+  );
 }
 
 // src/v1/operations/dynamics/revision.ts
@@ -661,7 +761,7 @@ function reviseConfidenceOpinion(args) {
     priorEvidence.alpha + newEvidence.alpha,
     priorEvidence.beta + newEvidence.beta,
     args.nonInformativeWeight ?? DEFAULT_NON_INFORMATIVE_WEIGHT,
-    args.baseRate ?? 0.5
+    args.baseRate
   );
 }
 
@@ -1228,6 +1328,8 @@ function parseMarketIndexComparatorConfig(value) {
 // src/v1/operations/lucern.ts
 var LUCERN_SPECIFIC_OPERATOR_NAMES = [
   "clamp01",
+  "fromStorage",
+  "toStorage",
   "toStoredOpinionFields",
   "readOpinionFromRecord",
   "opinionFromScalar",
@@ -1248,6 +1350,7 @@ var LUCERN_SPECIFIC_OPERATOR_NAMES = [
   "propagateAllEdges",
   "bayesianUpdate",
   "reviseConfidence",
+  "reviseConfidenceOpinion",
   "computeBaseDecay",
   "computeDeadlineUrgency",
   "computeEffectiveDecay",
@@ -1275,6 +1378,6 @@ var LUCERN_SPECIFIC_OPERATOR_NAMES = [
   "parseMarketIndexComparatorConfig"
 ];
 
-export { LUCERN_SPECIFIC_OPERATOR_NAMES, applyNegativeEvidence, applyNegativeSupport, areTensioned, bayesianUpdate, buildComparisonRationale, buildEvidentialRationale, clamp01, compareMetricValue, computeBaseDecay, computeDeadlineUrgency, computeEffectiveDecay, confidenceLevel, constraintFusion, createInheritedContractRecord, decay, deriveContractModulationPlan, deriveContractStatus, deriveVerificationTrigger, detectTupleContradiction, evaluateTupleContradictionTransition, evidenceBalance, getEvaluatorInputRecord, getPropagationTraversalSpecs, getRescoringSchedule, hasProjectedOpinionChanged, informationGain, isPropagationEdgeType, normalizeEvidentialAction, normalizeTupleContradictionPolicy, opinionFromScalar, parseComparisonOperator, parseEvidentialEvaluatorConfig, parseMarketIndexComparatorConfig, parseMetricCheckerConfig, parseNumericThreshold, parseReferenceCheckCounterConfig, parseTemporalDeadlineConfig, pickFiniteNumber, propagateAllEdges, propagateThroughEdge, readOpinionFromRecord, resolveComparisonResult, reviseConfidence, temporalDecay, toDogmaticOpinion, toStoredOpinionFields };
+export { LUCERN_SPECIFIC_OPERATOR_NAMES, applyNegativeEvidence, applyNegativeSupport, areTensioned, bayesianUpdate, buildComparisonRationale, buildEvidentialRationale, clamp01, compareMetricValue, computeBaseDecay, computeDeadlineUrgency, computeEffectiveDecay, confidenceLevel, constraintFusion, createInheritedContractRecord, decay, deriveContractModulationPlan, deriveContractStatus, deriveVerificationTrigger, detectTupleContradiction, evaluateTupleContradictionTransition, evidenceBalance, fromStorage, getEvaluatorInputRecord, getPropagationTraversalSpecs, getRescoringSchedule, hasProjectedOpinionChanged, informationGain, isPropagationEdgeType, normalizeEvidentialAction, normalizeTupleContradictionPolicy, opinionFromScalar, parseComparisonOperator, parseEvidentialEvaluatorConfig, parseMarketIndexComparatorConfig, parseMetricCheckerConfig, parseNumericThreshold, parseReferenceCheckCounterConfig, parseTemporalDeadlineConfig, pickFiniteNumber, propagateAllEdges, propagateThroughEdge, readOpinionFromRecord, resolveComparisonResult, reviseConfidence, reviseConfidenceOpinion, temporalDecay, toDogmaticOpinion, toStorage, toStoredOpinionFields };
 //# sourceMappingURL=lucern.js.map
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