@lapxo/obligations 0.4.5 → 0.4.6

package/proofs/m0-046-identification/lake-manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+{
+  "version": "1.1.0",
+  "packagesDir": ".lake/packages",
+  "packages": [
+    {
+      "url": "https://github.com/leanprover-community/plausible",
+      "type": "git",
+      "subDir": null,
+      "scope": "leanprover-community",
+      "rev": "77e08eddc486491d7b9e470926b3dbe50319451a",
+      "name": "plausible",
+      "manifestFile": "lake-manifest.json",
+      "inputRev": "main",
+      "inherited": true,
+      "configFile": "lakefile.toml"
+    },
+    {
+      "url": "https://github.com/leanprover-community/LeanSearchClient",
+      "type": "git",
+      "subDir": null,
+      "scope": "leanprover-community",
+      "rev": "25078369972d295301f5a1e53c3e5850cf6d9d4c",
+      "name": "LeanSearchClient",
+      "manifestFile": "lake-manifest.json",
+      "inputRev": "main",
+      "inherited": true,
+      "configFile": "lakefile.toml"
+    },
+    {
+      "url": "https://github.com/leanprover-community/import-graph",
+      "type": "git",
+      "subDir": null,
+      "scope": "leanprover-community",
+      "rev": "e6a9f0f5ee3ccf7443a0070f92b62f8db12ae82b",
+      "name": "importGraph",
+      "manifestFile": "lake-manifest.json",
+      "inputRev": "main",
+      "inherited": true,
+      "configFile": "lakefile.toml"
+    },
+    {
+      "url": "https://github.com/leanprover-community/ProofWidgets4",
+      "type": "git",
+      "subDir": null,
+      "scope": "leanprover-community",
+      "rev": "c4919189477c3221e6a204008998b0d724f49904",
+      "name": "proofwidgets",
+      "manifestFile": "lake-manifest.json",
+      "inputRev": "v0.0.57",
+      "inherited": true,
+      "configFile": "lakefile.lean"
+    },
+    {
+      "url": "https://github.com/leanprover-community/aesop",
+      "type": "git",
+      "subDir": null,
+      "scope": "leanprover-community",
+      "rev": "5d50b08dedd7d69b3d9b3176e0d58a23af228884",
+      "name": "aesop",
+      "manifestFile": "lake-manifest.json",
+      "inputRev": "master",
+      "inherited": true,
+      "configFile": "lakefile.toml"
+    },
+    {
+      "url": "https://github.com/leanprover-community/quote4",
+      "type": "git",
+      "subDir": null,
+      "scope": "leanprover-community",
+      "rev": "fa4f7f15d97591a9cf3aa7724ba371c7fc6dda02",
+      "name": "Qq",
+      "manifestFile": "lake-manifest.json",
+      "inputRev": "master",
+      "inherited": true,
+      "configFile": "lakefile.toml"
+    },
+    {
+      "url": "https://github.com/leanprover-community/batteries",
+      "type": "git",
+      "subDir": null,
+      "scope": "leanprover-community",
+      "rev": "f5d04a9c4973d401c8c92500711518f7c656f034",
+      "name": "batteries",
+      "manifestFile": "lake-manifest.json",
+      "inputRev": "main",
+      "inherited": true,
+      "configFile": "lakefile.toml"
+    },
+    {
+      "url": "https://github.com/leanprover/lean4-cli",
+      "type": "git",
+      "subDir": null,
+      "scope": "leanprover",
+      "rev": "02dbd02bc00ec4916e99b04b2245b30200e200d0",
+      "name": "Cli",
+      "manifestFile": "lake-manifest.json",
+      "inputRev": "main",
+      "inherited": true,
+      "configFile": "lakefile.toml"
+    },
+    {
+      "url": "https://github.com/leanprover-community/mathlib4.git",
+      "type": "git",
+      "subDir": null,
+      "scope": "",
+      "rev": "c44e0c8ee63ca166450922a373c7409c5d26b00b",
+      "name": "mathlib",
+      "manifestFile": "lake-manifest.json",
+      "inputRev": "c44e0c8ee63ca166450922a373c7409c5d26b00b",
+      "inherited": false,
+      "configFile": "lakefile.lean"
+    }
+  ],
+  "name": "obligations_lineage",
+  "lakeDir": ".lake"
+}

package/proofs/m0-046-identification/lakefile.toml

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+name = "obligations_lineage"
+version = "0.0.0"
+defaultTargets = ["M0Identification046"]
+[[require]]
+name = "mathlib"
+git = "https://github.com/leanprover-community/mathlib4.git"
+rev = "c44e0c8ee63ca166450922a373c7409c5d26b00b"
+[[lean_lib]]
+name = "Obligations045"
+
+[[lean_lib]]
+name = "M0Identification046"

package/proofs/m0-046-identification/lean-toolchain

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+leanprover/lean4:v4.19.0

package/proofs/m0-046-uncertainty/BridgeNegatives.lean

@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+import M0Bridge
+namespace Obligations046.BridgeTests
+
+def atoms : List (ℚ × ℚ × ℚ × ℚ) :=
+  [(0,0,0,1/16),(0,1,1,3/16),(1,0,1,3/16),(1,1,0,3/16),(1,1,1,6/16)]
+def expect (f : ℚ → ℚ → ℚ → ℚ) : ℚ :=
+  (atoms.map (fun (a,b,c,w) => w*f a b c)).sum
+
+/-- A normalized binary distribution with Bernoulli(3/4) pairwise marginals,
+    but not the jointly independent word law. Exact arithmetic, not simulation. -/
+theorem pairwise_not_joint :
+    expect (fun _ _ _ => 1) = 1 ∧
+    expect (fun a _ _ => a) = 3/4 ∧
+    expect (fun _ b _ => b) = 3/4 ∧
+    expect (fun _ _ c => c) = 3/4 ∧
+    expect (fun a b _ => a*b) = 9/16 ∧
+    expect (fun a _ c => a*c) = 9/16 ∧
+    expect (fun _ b c => b*c) = 9/16 ∧
+    expect (fun a b c => (1-a)*(1-b)*(1-c)) = 1/16 ∧
+    expect (fun a b c => (1-a)*(1-b)*(1-c)) ≠ (1/4:ℚ)^3 := by
+  norm_num [expect, atoms]
+
+end Obligations046.BridgeTests

package/proofs/m0-046-uncertainty/M0BlockCoverage046.lean

@@ -0,0 +1,163 @@
+import Mathlib.Data.Fintype.BigOperators
+import Mathlib.Algebra.BigOperators.Ring.Finset
+import Mathlib.Data.Real.Basic
+import Mathlib.Tactic.Linarith
+import Mathlib.Tactic.Positivity
+import Mathlib.Tactic.Ring
+import Mathlib.Tactic.FieldSimp
+
+open scoped BigOperators
+noncomputable section
+open Classical
+namespace Obligations046.BlockCoverage
+variable {Ω : Type*} [Fintype Ω]
+
+def avg (μ U : Ω → ℝ) : ℝ := ∑ ω, μ ω * U ω
+
+def iidSum (μ U : Ω → ℝ) : ℕ → (ℝ → ℝ) → ℝ
+  | 0, f => f 0
+  | n+1, f => ∑ ω, μ ω * iidSum μ U n (fun x => f (U ω+x))
+
+theorem iidSum_mono (μ U : Ω → ℝ) (hμ : ∀ ω, 0 ≤ μ ω) (n : ℕ)
+    (f g : ℝ → ℝ) (hfg : ∀ x, f x ≤ g x) : iidSum μ U n f ≤ iidSum μ U n g := by
+  induction n generalizing f g with
+  | zero => exact hfg 0
+  | succ n ih =>
+    simp only [iidSum]
+    exact Finset.sum_le_sum fun ω _ => mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_left
+      (ih _ _ (fun x => hfg (U ω+x))) (hμ ω)
+
+theorem iidSum_quadratic (μ U : Ω → ℝ) (hnorm : ∑ ω, μ ω = 1)
+    (n : ℕ) (a b d : ℝ) :
+    iidSum μ U n (fun x => a*x^2+b*x+d) =
+      a*((n:ℝ)*(avg μ (fun ω => (U ω)^2)-(avg μ U)^2)+((n:ℝ)*avg μ U)^2)+
+      b*(n:ℝ)*avg μ U+d := by
+  induction n generalizing a b d with
+  | zero => simp [iidSum]
+  | succ n ih =>
+    simp only [iidSum]
+    have hf (u : ℝ) : (fun x : ℝ => a*(u+x)^2+b*(u+x)+d) =
+        (fun x => a*x^2+(2*a*u+b)*x+(a*u^2+b*u+d)) := by funext x; ring
+    simp_rw [hf, ih]
+    simp only [Nat.cast_add, Nat.cast_one]
+    calc
+      _ = ∑ ω, (μ ω * (a*((n:ℝ)*(avg μ (fun ω => (U ω)^2)-(avg μ U)^2)+((n:ℝ)*avg μ U)^2)+b*(n:ℝ)*avg μ U+d) +
+          (μ ω*U ω)*(2*a*(n:ℝ)*avg μ U+b) + (μ ω*(U ω)^2)*a) := by
+        apply Finset.sum_congr rfl
+        intro ω _
+        ring
+      _ = (∑ ω, μ ω)*(a*((n:ℝ)*(avg μ (fun ω => (U ω)^2)-(avg μ U)^2)+((n:ℝ)*avg μ U)^2)+b*(n:ℝ)*avg μ U+d) +
+          avg μ U*(2*a*(n:ℝ)*avg μ U+b)+avg μ (fun ω => (U ω)^2)*a := by
+        simp only [avg, Finset.sum_add_distrib, ← Finset.sum_mul]
+      _ = _ := by rw [hnorm]; ring
+
+theorem bounded_cell_variance (μ U : Ω → ℝ) (hμ : ∀ ω, 0 ≤ μ ω)
+    (_hnorm : ∑ ω, μ ω = 1) (hU : ∀ ω, 0 ≤ U ω ∧ U ω ≤ 1) :
+    avg μ (fun ω => (U ω)^2)-(avg μ U)^2 ≤ 1/4 := by
+  have hm : avg μ (fun ω => (U ω)^2) ≤ avg μ U := by
+    apply Finset.sum_le_sum
+    intro ω _
+    apply mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_left _ (hμ ω)
+    change (U ω)^2 ≤ U ω
+    nlinarith [mul_nonneg (hU ω).1 (sub_nonneg.mpr (hU ω).2)]
+  nlinarith [sq_nonneg (avg μ U-1/2)]
+
+theorem iid_centered_second (μ U : Ω → ℝ) (hnorm : ∑ ω, μ ω = 1) (n : ℕ) :
+    iidSum μ U n (fun x => (x-(n:ℝ)*avg μ U)^2) =
+    (n:ℝ)*(avg μ (fun ω => (U ω)^2)-(avg μ U)^2) := by
+  have hf : (fun x : ℝ => (x-(n:ℝ)*avg μ U)^2) =
+      (fun x => 1*x^2+(-2*(n:ℝ)*avg μ U)*x+((n:ℝ)*avg μ U)^2) := by funext x; ring
+  rw [hf, iidSum_quadratic μ U hnorm]
+  ring
+
+def bad (n : ℕ) (m eps x : ℝ) : ℝ := if (n:ℝ)*eps ≤ |x-(n:ℝ)*m| then 1 else 0
+
+theorem block_tail_le (μ U : Ω → ℝ) (hμ : ∀ ω, 0 ≤ μ ω)
+    (hnorm : ∑ ω, μ ω = 1) (hU : ∀ ω, 0 ≤ U ω ∧ U ω ≤ 1)
+    (n : ℕ) (hn : 0 < n) (eps : ℝ) (heps : 0 < eps) :
+    iidSum μ U n (bad n (avg μ U) eps) ≤ 1/(4*(n:ℝ)*eps^2) := by
+  have hn0 : (0:ℝ) < n := by exact_mod_cast hn
+  have hd : 0 < (n:ℝ)^2*eps^2 := by positivity
+  have hb (x : ℝ) : bad n (avg μ U) eps x ≤
+      (x-(n:ℝ)*avg μ U)^2/((n:ℝ)^2*eps^2) := by
+    unfold bad
+    split_ifs with h
+    · apply (le_div_iff₀ hd).mpr
+      have hprod : 0 ≤ (n:ℝ)*eps := by positivity
+      have hs := mul_self_le_mul_self hprod h
+      have hs' : ((n:ℝ)*eps)^2 ≤ |x-(n:ℝ)*avg μ U|^2 := by nlinarith only [hs]
+      rw [sq_abs] at hs'
+      nlinarith
+    · positivity
+  have h := iidSum_mono μ U hμ n _ _ hb
+  have hf : (fun x : ℝ => (x-(n:ℝ)*avg μ U)^2/((n:ℝ)^2*eps^2)) =
+      (fun x => (1/((n:ℝ)^2*eps^2))*x^2+
+        (-2*(n:ℝ)*avg μ U/((n:ℝ)^2*eps^2))*x+
+        ((n:ℝ)*avg μ U)^2/((n:ℝ)^2*eps^2)) := by funext x; ring
+  rw [hf, iidSum_quadratic μ U hnorm] at h
+  have hm := bounded_cell_variance μ U hμ hnorm hU
+  have heq :
+      (1/((n:ℝ)^2*eps^2))*((n:ℝ)*(avg μ (fun ω => (U ω)^2)-(avg μ U)^2)+((n:ℝ)*avg μ U)^2)+
+        (-2*(n:ℝ)*avg μ U/((n:ℝ)^2*eps^2))*(n:ℝ)*avg μ U+
+        ((n:ℝ)*avg μ U)^2/((n:ℝ)^2*eps^2) =
+      (avg μ (fun ω => (U ω)^2)-(avg μ U)^2)/((n:ℝ)*eps^2) := by
+    field_simp
+    ring
+  rw [heq] at h
+  calc
+    _ ≤ (avg μ (fun ω => (U ω)^2)-(avg μ U)^2)/((n:ℝ)*eps^2) := h
+    _ ≤ (1/4)/((n:ℝ)*eps^2) := div_le_div_of_nonneg_right hm (by positivity)
+    _ = _ := by ring
+
+-- Shared-member pairs are one block, not independent observations.
+theorem pair_pseudoreplication_negative : (157/2048:ℚ) > 1/(4*6) := by norm_num
+
+def indicator (b : Bool) : ℝ := if b then 1 else 0
+
+theorem indicator_union_pointwise (a b c : Bool) :
+    indicator (a || b || c) ≤ indicator a+indicator b+indicator c := by
+  cases a <;> cases b <;> cases c <;> norm_num [indicator]
+
+def prob (μ : Ω → ℝ) (A : Ω → Bool) : ℝ := avg μ (fun ω => indicator (A ω))
+
+theorem union3 (μ : Ω → ℝ) (hμ : ∀ ω, 0 ≤ μ ω) (A B C : Ω → Bool) :
+    prob μ (fun ω => A ω || B ω || C ω) ≤ prob μ A+prob μ B+prob μ C := by
+  calc
+    _ ≤ avg μ (fun ω => indicator (A ω)+indicator (B ω)+indicator (C ω)) := by
+      apply Finset.sum_le_sum
+      intro ω _
+      exact mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_left (indicator_union_pointwise (A ω) (B ω) (C ω)) (hμ ω)
+    _ = _ := by simp [prob, avg, mul_add, Finset.sum_add_distrib]
+
+theorem prob_le_one (μ : Ω → ℝ) (hμ : ∀ ω, 0 ≤ μ ω)
+    (hnorm : ∑ ω, μ ω = 1) (A : Ω → Bool) : prob μ A ≤ 1 := by
+  calc
+    _ ≤ ∑ ω, μ ω := by
+      apply Finset.sum_le_sum
+      intro ω _
+      have hi : indicator (A ω) ≤ 1 := by cases A ω <;> norm_num [indicator]
+      simpa only [mul_one] using mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_left hi (hμ ω)
+    _ = 1 := hnorm
+
+theorem clipped_union_budget (μ : Ω → ℝ) (hμ : ∀ ω, 0 ≤ μ ω)
+    (hnorm : ∑ ω, μ ω = 1) (A B C : Ω → Bool) (d bp bc : ℝ)
+    (hA : prob μ A ≤ d) (hB : prob μ B ≤ bp) (hC : prob μ C ≤ bc) :
+    prob μ (fun ω => A ω || B ω || C ω) ≤ min 1 (d+bp+bc) := by
+  apply le_min (prob_le_one μ hμ hnorm _)
+  have h := union3 μ hμ A B C
+  linarith
+
+theorem clipped_block_tail (μ U : Ω → ℝ) (hμ : ∀ ω, 0 ≤ μ ω)
+    (hnorm : ∑ ω, μ ω = 1) (hU : ∀ ω, 0 ≤ U ω ∧ U ω ≤ 1)
+    (n : ℕ) (hn : 0 < n) (eps : ℝ) (heps : 0 < eps) :
+    iidSum μ U n (bad n (avg μ U) eps) ≤ min 1 (1/(4*(n:ℝ)*eps^2)) := by
+  apply le_min
+  · have h := iidSum_mono μ U hμ n (bad n (avg μ U) eps) (fun _ => 1) (fun x => by
+      unfold bad
+      split_ifs <;> norm_num)
+    have hc : iidSum μ U n (fun _ => 1) = 1 := by
+      simpa using iidSum_quadratic μ U hnorm n 0 0 1
+    simpa only [hc] using h
+  · exact block_tail_le μ U hμ hnorm hU n hn eps heps
+
+end Obligations046.BlockCoverage

package/proofs/m0-046-uncertainty/M0Bridge.lean

@@ -0,0 +1,300 @@
+import Obligations045.M0Offdiag
+import Mathlib.Data.Nat.Choose.Sum
+import Mathlib.Probability.ProbabilityMassFunction.Integrals
+import Mathlib.Algebra.BigOperators.Group.Finset.Pi
+
+open scoped BigOperators
+open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter Topology
+noncomputable section
+open Classical
+namespace Obligations046.Bridge
+
+def count {n : ℕ} (s : Finset (Fin n)) : Fin (n+1) :=
+  ⟨s.card, Nat.lt_succ_of_le (by simpa using s.card_le_univ)⟩
+def mass (p : ℝ) {n : ℕ} (s : Finset (Fin n)) : ℝ :=
+  p^s.card*(1-p)^(n-s.card)
+def binMass (p : ℝ) (n : ℕ) (k : Fin (n+1)) : ℝ :=
+  (n.choose k : ℝ)*p^(k:ℕ)*(1-p)^(n-(k:ℕ))
+
+theorem count_fiber_mass (p : ℝ) (n : ℕ) (k : Fin (n+1)) :
+    (∑ s : Finset (Fin n), if count s = k then mass p s else 0) = binMass p n k := by
+  have hfilter : Finset.univ.filter (fun s : Finset (Fin n) => count s = k) =
+      Finset.powersetCard (k:ℕ) (Finset.univ : Finset (Fin n)) := by
+    ext s
+    simp [count, Fin.ext_iff, Finset.mem_powersetCard]
+  rw [← Finset.sum_filter, hfilter]
+  calc
+    _ = ∑ _s ∈ Finset.powersetCard (k:ℕ) (Finset.univ : Finset (Fin n)),
+        p^(k:ℕ)*(1-p)^(n-(k:ℕ)) := by
+      apply Finset.sum_congr rfl
+      intro s hs
+      simp only [Finset.mem_powersetCard] at hs
+      simp [mass, hs.2]
+    _ = binMass p n k := by
+      simp [binMass, Finset.card_powersetCard, nsmul_eq_mul, mul_assoc]
+
+/-- Finite product-law pushforward, before any choice of Bernoulli parameters. -/
+theorem product_pushforward {ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] [DecidableEq ι]
+    {S T : ι → Type*} [∀ i, Fintype (S i)] [∀ i, Fintype (T i)]
+    [∀ i, DecidableEq (T i)] (m : ∀ i, S i → ℝ) (c : ∀ i, S i → T i)
+    (f : (∀ i, T i) → ℝ) :
+    (∑ x : ∀ i, S i, (∏ i, m i (x i))*f (fun i => c i (x i))) =
+      ∑ k : ∀ i, T i, (∏ i, ∑ s : S i, if c i s = k i then m i s else 0)*f k := by
+  have gate (x : ∀ i, S i) (k : ∀ i, T i) :
+      (∏ i, if c i (x i) = k i then m i (x i) else 0) =
+        if (fun i => c i (x i)) = k then ∏ i, m i (x i) else 0 := by
+    by_cases h : (fun i => c i (x i)) = k
+    · subst k
+      simp
+    · rw [if_neg h]
+      have h' : ∃ i, c i (x i) ≠ k i := by
+        by_contra hn
+        push_neg at hn
+        exact h (funext hn)
+      obtain ⟨i, hi⟩ := h'
+      exact Finset.prod_eq_zero (Finset.mem_univ i) (by simp [hi])
+  symm
+  simp_rw [Fintype.prod_sum, Finset.sum_mul]
+  rw [Finset.sum_comm]
+  apply Finset.sum_congr rfl
+  intro x _
+  simp_rw [gate, ite_mul, zero_mul]
+  simp
+
+/-- Raw individual Bernoulli outcomes are subsets of named member indices. -/
+abbrev World {ι : Type*} (n : ι → ℕ) := ∀ i, Finset (Fin (n i))
+instance worldMeasurableSpace {ι : Type*} (n : ι → ℕ) : MeasurableSpace (World n) := ⊤
+instance worldDiscreteMeasurable {ι : Type*} (n : ι → ℕ) : DiscreteMeasurableSpace (World n) := ⟨fun _ => trivial⟩
+
+def jointMass {ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] (n : ι → ℕ) (p : ι → ℝ)
+    (x : World n) : ℝ := ∏ i, mass (p i) (x i)
+
+theorem joint_count_pushforward {ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] [DecidableEq ι]
+    (n : ι → ℕ) (p : ι → ℝ) (f : (∀ i, Fin (n i+1)) → ℝ) :
+    (∑ x : World n, jointMass n p x*f (fun i => count (x i))) =
+      ∑ k : ∀ i, Fin (n i+1), (∏ i, binMass (p i) (n i) (k i))*f k := by
+  simpa [jointMass, count_fiber_mass] using
+    product_pushforward (fun i => mass (p i)) (fun _ => count) f
+
+theorem mass_sum (p : ℝ) (n : ℕ) :
+    ∑ s : Finset (Fin n), mass p s = 1 := by
+  have h := Finset.sum_powerset_apply_card (fun k => p^k*(1-p)^(n-k))
+    (x := (Finset.univ : Finset (Fin n)))
+  simp only [Finset.powerset_univ, Finset.card_univ, Fintype.card_fin, nsmul_eq_mul] at h
+  change (∑ s : Finset (Fin n), p^s.card*(1-p)^(n-s.card)) = 1
+  rw [h]
+  calc
+    _ = (p+(1-p))^n := by
+      rw [add_pow]
+      apply Finset.sum_congr rfl
+      intro k _
+      ring
+    _ = 1 := by simp
+
+theorem mass_nonneg (p : ℝ) (hp : 0 ≤ p) (hp1 : p ≤ 1)
+    {n : ℕ} (s : Finset (Fin n)) : 0 ≤ mass p s :=
+  mul_nonneg (pow_nonneg hp _) (pow_nonneg (sub_nonneg.mpr hp1) _)
+
+theorem jointMass_sum {ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] [DecidableEq ι]
+    (n : ι → ℕ) (p : ι → ℝ) : ∑ x : World n, jointMass n p x = 1 := by
+  simp only [jointMass, ← Fintype.prod_sum, mass_sum, Finset.prod_const_one]
+
+def memberLaw {ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] [DecidableEq ι]
+    (n : ι → ℕ) (p : ι → ℝ) (hp : ∀ i, 0 ≤ p i) (hp1 : ∀ i, p i ≤ 1) :
+    PMF (World n) :=
+  PMF.ofFintype (fun x => ENNReal.ofReal (jointMass n p x)) (by
+    rw [← ENNReal.ofReal_sum_of_nonneg]
+    · simp [jointMass_sum]
+    · intro x _
+      exact Finset.prod_nonneg (fun i _ => mass_nonneg (p i) (hp i) (hp1 i) (x i)))
+
+theorem memberLaw_expectation {ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] [DecidableEq ι]
+    (n : ι → ℕ) (p : ι → ℝ) (hp : ∀ i, 0 ≤ p i) (hp1 : ∀ i, p i ≤ 1)
+    (f : World n → ℝ) :
+    (∫ x, f x ∂(memberLaw n p hp hp1).toMeasure) =
+      ∑ x : World n, jointMass n p x*f x := by
+  rw [PMF.integral_eq_sum]
+  apply Finset.sum_congr rfl
+  intro x _
+  simp only [memberLaw, PMF.ofFintype_apply, smul_eq_mul]
+  have hm : 0 ≤ jointMass n p x := Finset.prod_nonneg
+    (fun i _ => mass_nonneg (p i) (hp i) (hp1 i) (x i))
+  rw [ENNReal.toReal_ofReal hm]
+
+open Obligations045.M0
+abbrev sizes (M : Domain) (N : ℕ) (i : Fin M.K) := allocation M.w N i
+def modelLaw (M : Domain) (N : ℕ) (a : Fin M.K → Bool) : PMF (World (sizes M N)) :=
+  memberLaw (sizes M N) (fun i => q M (a i))
+    (fun i => (q_pos M (a i)).le) (fun i => (q_lt_one M (a i)).le)
+def correctCount {ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] {n : ι → ℕ} (x : World n) : ℕ :=
+  ∑ i, (x i).card
+
+/-- Exact finite expectation of individual Bernoulli member outcomes, not an assumed count law. -/
+theorem conditional_error_representation (M : Domain) (N : ℕ) (a : Fin M.K → Bool) :
+    (∫ x, fairLoss (correctCount x) N ∂(modelLaw M N a).toMeasure) =
+      conditionalError M N a := by
+  rw [modelLaw, memberLaw_expectation]
+  have h := joint_count_pushforward (sizes M N) (fun i => q M (a i))
+    (fun k => fairLoss (∑ i, (k i : ℕ)) N)
+  simpa [conditionalError, binMass, count, correctCount, sizes] using h
+
+/-- N=0 has fairLoss=1/2; it is not the average bridge. -/
+theorem conditional_error_zero (M : Domain) (a : Fin M.K → Bool) :
+    conditionalError M 0 a = 1/2 := by
+  rw [← conditional_error_representation]
+  have hz : ∀ x : World (sizes M 0), correctCount x = 0 := by
+    intro x
+    have h : ∀ i, x i = ∅ := by
+      intro i
+      apply Finset.eq_empty_iff_forall_not_mem.mpr
+      intro j _
+      have hj := j.isLt
+      simp [sizes, allocation] at hj
+    simp [correctCount, h]
+  simp [hz, fairLoss]
+
+theorem fair_loss_average_bridge (total N : ℕ) (hN : 0 < N) :
+    fairLoss total N = limitingLoss ((total:ℝ)/(N:ℝ)) := by
+  have hn : (0:ℝ) < N := by exact_mod_cast hN
+  have hlt : (total:ℝ)/(N:ℝ) < (1:ℝ)/2 ↔ 2*total < N := by
+    rw [div_lt_iff₀ hn]
+    constructor
+    · intro h
+      exact_mod_cast (show (2:ℝ)*total < N by linarith)
+    · intro h
+      have h' : (2:ℝ)*total < N := by exact_mod_cast h
+      linarith
+  have heq : (total:ℝ)/(N:ℝ) = (1:ℝ)/2 ↔ 2*total = N := by
+    rw [div_eq_iff hn.ne']
+    constructor
+    · intro h
+      exact_mod_cast (show (2:ℝ)*total = N by linarith)
+    · intro h
+      have h' : (2:ℝ)*total = N := by exact_mod_cast h
+      linarith
+  unfold fairLoss limitingLoss
+  simp only [hlt, heq]
+
+/-- Probability of every joint count event, derived from raw member product probabilities. -/
+theorem lineage_count_binomial_law {ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] [DecidableEq ι]
+    (n : ι → ℕ) (p : ι → ℝ) (hp : ∀ i, 0 ≤ p i) (hp1 : ∀ i, p i ≤ 1)
+    (k : ∀ i, Fin (n i+1)) :
+    (∫ x, if (fun i => count (x i)) = k then (1:ℝ) else 0
+      ∂(memberLaw n p hp hp1).toMeasure) = ∏ i, binMass (p i) (n i) (k i) := by
+  rw [memberLaw_expectation]
+  simpa using joint_count_pushforward n p (fun z => if z = k then (1:ℝ) else 0)
+
+/-- The snapshot retains individual named Bernoulli outcomes; it is not a count-law certificate. -/
+def snapshot {Ω : Type*} (M : Domain) (N : ℕ)
+    (X : Fin M.K → ℕ → Ω → Bool) (ω : Ω) : World (sizes M N) :=
+  fun i => Finset.univ.filter (fun j : Fin (sizes M N i) => X i j ω)
+def indicator {Ω : Type*} {K : ℕ} (X : Fin K → ℕ → Ω → Bool) : Fin K → ℕ → Ω → ℝ :=
+  fun i j ω => if X i j ω then 1 else 0
+
+theorem snapshot_card {Ω : Type*} (M : Domain) (N : ℕ)
+    (X : Fin M.K → ℕ → Ω → Bool) (ω : Ω) (i : Fin M.K) :
+    (((snapshot M N X ω) i).card : ℝ) =
+      ∑ j ∈ Finset.range (allocation M.w N i), indicator X i j ω := by
+  simp only [snapshot, Finset.card_filter, Nat.cast_sum, Nat.cast_ite,
+    Nat.cast_one, Nat.cast_zero, indicator]
+  exact Fin.sum_univ_eq_sum_range (fun j => if X i j ω then (1:ℝ) else 0) _
+
+theorem snapshot_average {Ω : Type*} (M : Domain) (N : ℕ)
+    (X : Fin M.K → ℕ → Ω → Bool) (ω : Ω) :
+    memberAverage M (indicator X) N ω = (correctCount (snapshot M N X ω):ℝ)/(N:ℝ) := by
+  simp only [memberAverage, correctCount, Nat.cast_sum, snapshot_card, Finset.sum_div]
+
+/-- Transfer from a declared joint Bernoulli MEMBER law on an ambient probability space.
+    hproduct names all raw bits, not counts, their expectation, or a tail/convergence law. -/
+theorem ambient_conditional_error_representation {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
+    (M : Domain) (N : ℕ) (a : Fin M.K → Bool) (μ : Measure Ω)
+    (X : Fin M.K → ℕ → Ω → Bool) (hN : 0 < N)
+    (hmeas : AEMeasurable (snapshot M N X) μ)
+    (hproduct : Measure.map (snapshot M N X) μ = (modelLaw M N a).toMeasure) :
+    (∫ ω, limitingLoss (memberAverage M (indicator X) N ω) ∂μ) =
+      conditionalError M N a := by
+  have hpoint : (fun ω => limitingLoss (memberAverage M (indicator X) N ω)) =
+      (fun ω => fairLoss (correctCount (snapshot M N X ω)) N) := by
+    funext ω
+    rw [snapshot_average, fair_loss_average_bridge _ _ hN]
+  rw [hpoint]
+  have hf : AEStronglyMeasurable (fun x : World (sizes M N) => fairLoss (correctCount x) N)
+      (Measure.map (snapshot M N X) μ) := Measurable.of_discrete.stronglyMeasurable.aestronglyMeasurable
+  rw [← integral_map hmeas hf, hproduct, conditional_error_representation]
+
+theorem mixture_error_representation {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
+    (M : Domain) (N : ℕ) (μ : Measure Ω)
+    (X : (Fin M.K → Bool) → Fin M.K → ℕ → Ω → Bool) (hN : 0 < N)
+    (hmeas : ∀ a, AEMeasurable (snapshot M N (X a)) μ)
+    (hproduct : ∀ a, Measure.map (snapshot M N (X a)) μ = (modelLaw M N a).toMeasure) :
+    error M N = ∑ a : Fin M.K → Bool, latentMass M a *
+      ∫ ω, limitingLoss (memberAverage M (indicator (X a)) N ω) ∂μ := by
+  unfold error
+  apply Finset.sum_congr rfl
+  intro a _
+  rw [ambient_conditional_error_representation M N a μ (X a) hN (hmeas a) (hproduct a)]
+
+/-- The implementation limit follows from the old model theorem and the new representation bridge.
+    No CLT, diagonal theorem, count-law certificate, or convergence premise is assumed. -/
+theorem computational_offdiag_limit {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
+    (M : Domain) (μ : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure μ]
+    (X : (Fin M.K → Bool) → Fin M.K → ℕ → Ω → Bool)
+    (hsnapshot : ∀ a N, AEMeasurable (snapshot M N (X a)) μ)
+    (hproduct : ∀ a N, Measure.map (snapshot M N (X a)) μ = (modelLaw M N a).toMeasure)
+    (hint : ∀ a i, Integrable (indicator (X a) i 0) μ)
+    (hindep : ∀ a i, Pairwise (fun j k : ℕ => IndepFun (indicator (X a) i j) (indicator (X a) i k) μ))
+    (hident : ∀ a i j, IdentDistrib (indicator (X a) i j) (indicator (X a) i 0) μ μ)
+    (hmean : ∀ a i, ∫ ω, indicator (X a) i 0 ω ∂μ = q M (a i))
+    (hmeas : ∀ a N, AEStronglyMeasurable
+      (fun ω => limitingLoss (memberAverage M (indicator (X a)) N ω)) μ)
+    (hoff : ∀ a, score M a ≠ (1:ℝ)/2) :
+    Tendsto (error M) atTop (𝓝 (floor M)) := by
+  have h := floor_limit_offdiag_mixture M μ (fun a => indicator (X a))
+    hint hindep hident hmean hmeas hoff
+  have heq : (fun N => error M N) =ᶠ[atTop]
+      (fun N => ∑ a : Fin M.K → Bool, latentMass M a *
+        ∫ ω, limitingLoss (memberAverage M (indicator (X a)) N ω) ∂μ) := by
+    filter_upwards [eventually_ge_atTop 1] with N hN
+    exact mixture_error_representation M N μ X (lt_of_lt_of_le Nat.zero_lt_one hN)
+      (fun a => hsnapshot a N) (fun a => hproduct a N)
+  exact h.congr' heq.symm
+
+/-- The starting probability is the product over NAMED INDIVIDUAL bits, with no binomial factor. -/
+theorem mass_eq_individual_product (p : ℝ) {n : ℕ} (s : Finset (Fin n)) :
+    mass p s = ∏ j : Fin n, if j ∈ s then p else 1-p := by
+  have hc : (Finset.univ.filter (fun j : Fin n => j ∉ s)) = sᶜ := by
+    ext j
+    simp
+  rw [Finset.prod_ite]
+  simp [mass, Finset.filter_mem_eq_inter, hc, Finset.card_compl]
+
+theorem memberLaw_individual_probability {ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] [DecidableEq ι]
+    (n : ι → ℕ) (p : ι → ℝ) (hp : ∀ i, 0 ≤ p i) (hp1 : ∀ i, p i ≤ 1)
+    (x : World n) :
+    ((memberLaw n p hp hp1) x).toReal =
+      ∏ i, ∏ j : Fin (n i), if j ∈ x i then p i else 1-p i := by
+  simp only [memberLaw, PMF.ofFintype_apply]
+  have hm : 0 ≤ jointMass n p x := Finset.prod_nonneg
+    (fun i _ => mass_nonneg (p i) (hp i) (hp1 i) (x i))
+  rw [ENNReal.toReal_ofReal hm]
+  simp only [jointMass, mass_eq_individual_product]
+
+theorem zero_average_counterexample : fairLoss 0 0 ≠ limitingLoss ((0:ℝ)/0) := by
+  norm_num [fairLoss, limitingLoss]
+
+theorem latentMass_sum (M : Domain) : ∑ a : Fin M.K → Bool, latentMass M a = 1 := by
+  have h := (Fintype.prod_sum (fun (_i : Fin M.K) (b : Bool) =>
+    if b then M.p else 1-M.p)).symm
+  simpa [latentMass] using h
+
+/-- The finite mixture itself equals the existing implementation for EVERY N,
+    including zero. Its product-Bernoulli latent weights sum to one. -/
+theorem model_mixture_error_representation (M : Domain) (N : ℕ) :
+    (∑ a : Fin M.K → Bool, latentMass M a *
+      ∫ x, fairLoss (correctCount x) N ∂(modelLaw M N a).toMeasure) = error M N := by
+  unfold error
+  apply Finset.sum_congr rfl
+  intro a _
+  rw [conditional_error_representation]
+
+end Obligations046.Bridge