@lagoon-protocol/lagoon-mcp 0.4.0 → 0.6.0

package/dist/utils/var.js

@@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
+/**
+ * Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional VaR (CVaR) Utility
+ *
+ * Risk quantification for DeFi vault returns using historical simulation.
+ * Provides tail-risk metrics (VaR, CVaR) and downside-adjusted performance
+ * measurement (Sortino ratio) for vault assessment.
+ */
+/** Minimum number of return observations required for meaningful analysis */
+const MIN_DATA_POINTS = 10;
+/**
+ * Calculate Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional VaR (CVaR) using historical simulation.
+ *
+ * Historical simulation sorts observed returns and reads off percentiles directly,
+ * making no distributional assumptions. This is appropriate for DeFi returns which
+ * often exhibit fat tails and skewness that parametric methods underestimate.
+ *
+ * @param returns - Array of periodic returns as decimal fractions (e.g., -0.02 = -2% loss)
+ * @returns VaR analysis with loss magnitudes as positive percentages
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const dailyReturns = [-0.01, 0.005, -0.03, 0.02, ...]; // 30+ observations
+ * const analysis = calculateVaR(dailyReturns);
+ * // analysis.var95 = 2.5 means "95% of the time, daily loss does not exceed 2.5%"
+ * ```
+ */
+export function calculateVaR(returns) {
+    const emptyResult = {
+        var95: 0,
+        var99: 0,
+        cvar95: 0,
+        cvar99: 0,
+        dataPoints: 0,
+    };
+    if (returns.length < MIN_DATA_POINTS) {
+        return emptyResult;
+    }
+    // Sort returns ascending (worst losses first)
+    const sorted = [...returns].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+    const n = sorted.length;
+    // VaR at confidence level X = the value at the (1-X) percentile of sorted returns.
+    // For 95% confidence, we take the 5th percentile (index = floor(0.05 * n)).
+    // For 99% confidence, we take the 1st percentile (index = floor(0.01 * n)).
+    const var95Index = Math.floor(0.05 * n);
+    const var99Index = Math.floor(0.01 * n);
+    const var95Value = sorted[var95Index];
+    const var99Value = sorted[var99Index];
+    // CVaR (Expected Shortfall) = mean of all returns at or below the VaR threshold.
+    // This captures the average severity of tail losses, not just the boundary.
+    const cvar95 = calculateExpectedShortfall(sorted, var95Index);
+    const cvar99 = calculateExpectedShortfall(sorted, var99Index);
+    // Convert to positive percentage loss magnitudes.
+    // A return of -0.02 becomes 2.0 (representing 2% loss).
+    return {
+        var95: toPositiveLossPercentage(var95Value),
+        var99: toPositiveLossPercentage(var99Value),
+        cvar95: toPositiveLossPercentage(cvar95),
+        cvar99: toPositiveLossPercentage(cvar99),
+        dataPoints: n,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate the Sortino ratio for a return series.
+ *
+ * Sortino ratio improves on Sharpe by penalizing only downside volatility,
+ * which better reflects investor preferences in asymmetric return distributions
+ * typical of DeFi strategies.
+ *
+ * Formula: (mean return - risk-free rate) / downside deviation
+ *
+ * @param returns - Array of periodic returns as decimal fractions
+ * @param riskFreeRate - Per-period risk-free rate as decimal (default: 0.02 = 2% per period).
+ *   Callers must convert annualized rates to match the return period
+ *   (e.g., annual 5% → daily 0.05/365 ≈ 0.000137).
+ * @returns Sortino ratio, or 0 if insufficient data or no downside deviation
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const weeklyReturns = [0.01, -0.005, 0.015, -0.02, ...];
+ * const weeklyRiskFree = 0.05 / 52; // 5% annual → per-week
+ * const sortino = calculateSortinoRatio(weeklyReturns, weeklyRiskFree);
+ * ```
+ */
+export function calculateSortinoRatio(returns, riskFreeRate = 0.02) {
+    if (returns.length < 2) {
+        return 0;
+    }
+    const meanReturn = returns.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r, 0) / returns.length;
+    // Downside deviation: sqrt of mean squared negative excess returns.
+    // Only returns below the risk-free rate (per period) contribute.
+    const negativeExcessReturns = returns.filter((r) => r < riskFreeRate);
+    if (negativeExcessReturns.length === 0) {
+        return 0;
+    }
+    const sumSquaredDownside = negativeExcessReturns.reduce((sum, r) => sum + (r - riskFreeRate) ** 2, 0);
+    const downsideDeviation = Math.sqrt(sumSquaredDownside / returns.length);
+    if (downsideDeviation === 0) {
+        return 0;
+    }
+    return (meanReturn - riskFreeRate) / downsideDeviation;
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate Expected Shortfall (mean of returns at or below the VaR index).
+ *
+ * @param sortedReturns - Returns sorted ascending (worst first)
+ * @param varIndex - Index of the VaR threshold in the sorted array
+ * @returns Mean of all returns from index 0 through varIndex (inclusive)
+ */
+function calculateExpectedShortfall(sortedReturns, varIndex) {
+    // Include all returns from the worst up to and including the VaR threshold
+    const tailCount = varIndex + 1;
+    if (tailCount === 0) {
+        return sortedReturns[0];
+    }
+    let sum = 0;
+    for (let i = 0; i < tailCount; i++) {
+        sum += sortedReturns[i];
+    }
+    return sum / tailCount;
+}
+/**
+ * Convert a return value to a positive loss percentage.
+ * Negative returns become positive loss magnitudes; positive returns become 0 (no loss).
+ *
+ * @param returnValue - Return as decimal fraction (e.g., -0.025)
+ * @returns Positive percentage loss (e.g., 2.5), or 0 if return is non-negative
+ */
+function toPositiveLossPercentage(returnValue) {
+    if (returnValue >= 0) {
+        return 0;
+    }
+    return Math.abs(returnValue) * 100;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=var.js.map

package/dist/utils/var.js.map

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package/dist/utils/yield-prediction.d.ts

@@ -65,6 +65,9 @@ export declare function predictYield(historicalData: YieldDataPoint[], feeParams
      * will be omitted entirely (no placeholder assumptions).
      */
     actualProfitMargin?: number;
+}, dataQualityFlags?: {
+    droppedShortPeriods: number;
+    clampedPeriods: number;
 }): YieldPrediction;
 /**
  * Calculate compound APR from multiple yield sources

package/dist/utils/yield-prediction.d.ts.map

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package/dist/utils/yield-prediction.js

@@ -37,10 +37,10 @@ function calculateEMA(values, period) {
 function calculateLinearRegression(data) {
     const n = data.length;
     if (n < 2) {
-        return { slope: 0, intercept: data[0]?.apr || 0, r2: 0 };
+        return { slope: 0, intercept: data[0]?.apr ?? 0, r2: 0 };
     }
     // Normalize timestamps to prevent overflow
-    const minTimestamp = Math.min(...data.map((d) => d.timestamp));
+    const minTimestamp = data.reduce((min, d) => (d.timestamp < min ? d.timestamp : min), data[0].timestamp);
     const x = data.map((d) => (d.timestamp - minTimestamp) / (24 * 60 * 60)); // Convert to days
     const y = data.map((d) => d.apr);
     // Calculate means
@@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ function calculateVolatility(values) {
  * @param feeParams - Optional fee parameters for calculating net returns
  * @returns Yield prediction with confidence intervals and insights
  */
-export function predictYield(historicalData, feeParams) {
+export function predictYield(historicalData, feeParams, dataQualityFlags) {
     if (historicalData.length === 0) {
         return {
             currentAPR: 0,
@@ -116,25 +116,42 @@ export function predictYield(historicalData, feeParams) {
     const emaShort = calculateEMA(aprValues, Math.min(7, aprValues.length)); // 7-day EMA
     const emaLong = calculateEMA(aprValues, Math.min(30, aprValues.length)); // 30-day EMA
     // Weighted prediction: 40% regression, 40% short EMA, 20% long EMA
-    const regressionPrediction = regression.slope * sortedData.length + regression.intercept;
+    // Use 1-step-ahead forecast in days (consistent with regression x = days-since-minTimestamp)
+    const minTimestamp = sortedData[0].timestamp;
+    const lastTimestamp = sortedData[sortedData.length - 1].timestamp;
+    const lastXDays = (lastTimestamp - minTimestamp) / (24 * 60 * 60);
+    const nextXDays = lastXDays + 1; // one day ahead
+    const regressionPrediction = regression.slope * nextXDays + regression.intercept;
     const predictedAPR = regressionPrediction * 0.4 + emaShort * 0.4 + emaLong * 0.2;
+    // Regime change detection: if short EMA diverges >50% from long EMA,
+    // the yield source may have fundamentally changed (e.g., incentive program ended).
+    // Reduce confidence significantly when detected.
+    const emaLongMagnitude = Math.max(Math.abs(emaLong), 1e-8);
+    const emaDivergence = Math.abs(emaShort - emaLong) / emaLongMagnitude;
+    const regimeChangeDetected = emaDivergence > 0.5;
     // Calculate confidence based on R² and data quantity
     const dataQualityScore = Math.min(1, sortedData.length / 30); // More data = higher confidence
     const trendStrengthScore = regression.r2; // Strong trend = higher confidence
-    const confidence = (dataQualityScore * 0.4 + trendStrengthScore * 0.6) * 0.9; // Max 90%
-    // Calculate volatility for confidence intervals
-    const volatility = calculateVolatility(aprValues);
+    const baseConfidence = (dataQualityScore * 0.4 + trendStrengthScore * 0.6) * 0.9; // Max 90%
+    const confidence = regimeChangeDetected ? baseConfidence * 0.5 : baseConfidence;
+    // Calculate volatility of APR *changes* (not absolute values) for confidence intervals
+    // This measures how much APR typically moves period-to-period
+    const aprChanges = [];
+    for (let i = 1; i < aprValues.length; i++) {
+        aprChanges.push(aprValues[i] - aprValues[i - 1]);
+    }
+    const changeVolatility = aprChanges.length >= 2 ? calculateVolatility(aprChanges) : calculateVolatility(aprValues);
     // Project returns for different timeframes
+    // Confidence intervals use ±1 standard deviation (68% confidence level)
     const projectedReturns = [
         { timeframe: '7d', days: 7 },
         { timeframe: '30d', days: 30 },
         { timeframe: '90d', days: 90 },
         { timeframe: '1y', days: 365 },
     ].map(({ timeframe, days }) => {
-        // Annualized to period conversion
         const expectedReturn = (predictedAPR / 100) * (days / 365) * 100;
-        // Confidence intervals (±1 standard deviation scaled by time)
-        const timeScaledVolatility = volatility * Math.sqrt(days / 365);
+        // Scale change volatility by sqrt(time) for confidence intervals (68% CI)
+        const timeScaledVolatility = changeVolatility * Math.sqrt(days / 365);
         const minReturn = expectedReturn - timeScaledVolatility;
         const maxReturn = expectedReturn + timeScaledVolatility;
         return {
@@ -206,11 +223,13 @@ export function predictYield(historicalData, feeParams) {
         predictedAPR,
         trend,
         confidence,
-        volatility,
+        volatility: changeVolatility,
         dataPoints: sortedData.length,
         regression,
         feeAdjustedAPR,
         feeImpact,
+        regimeChangeDetected,
+        dataQualityFlags,
     });
     return {
         currentAPR,
@@ -229,6 +248,22 @@ export function predictYield(historicalData, feeParams) {
  */
 function generateInsights(params) {
     const insights = [];
+    // Regime change warning (highest priority)
+    if (params.regimeChangeDetected) {
+        insights.push('REGIME CHANGE DETECTED: Short-term and long-term yield trends have diverged >50%. ' +
+            'Prediction confidence reduced — yield source may have fundamentally changed');
+    }
+    // Data sanitation flags — explain why some periods were excluded so users
+    // don't compare dataPoints to the raw history count and conclude data is missing.
+    if (params.dataQualityFlags) {
+        const { droppedShortPeriods, clampedPeriods } = params.dataQualityFlags;
+        if (droppedShortPeriods > 0) {
+            insights.push(`${droppedShortPeriods} period(s) shorter than 6 hours excluded — increases prediction stability`);
+        }
+        if (clampedPeriods > 0) {
+            insights.push(`${clampedPeriods} period(s) had outlier APR clamped to [-100%, 500%] range — may indicate reporting anomaly or extreme yield event`);
+        }
+    }
     // Data quality insight
     if (params.dataPoints < 7) {
         insights.push(`Limited data (${params.dataPoints} points) - predictions have higher uncertainty`);

package/dist/utils/yield-prediction.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@lagoon-protocol/lagoon-mcp",
-  "version": "0.4.0",
+  "version": "0.6.0",
   "description": "MCP server for Lagoon DeFi vault analytics - FOR INFORMATIONAL USE ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Natural language access to vault data, portfolios, and performance metrics",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "./dist/index.js",