@lagoon-protocol/lagoon-mcp 0.2.19 → 0.2.21

package/dist/utils/risk-scoring.js

@@ -463,30 +463,62 @@ export function calculateCapacityUtilizationRisk(utilizationData) {
         return 0.8; // Near capacity (>90%) = deposit risk
     }
 }
+/**
+ * Risk factor weights for calculating overall risk score.
+ *
+ * Weights are derived from DeFi risk research and empirical analysis:
+ *
+ * **Market & Liquidity (24%)**
+ * - TVL (8%): Liquidity depth and market validation signal
+ * - Concentration (8%): Protocol-wide exposure and systemic risk
+ * - Liquidity (8%): Redemption coverage and operational liquidity
+ *
+ * **Performance & Stability (27%)**
+ * - Volatility (14%): Primary indicator of price instability and risk
+ * - APR Consistency (13%): Yield reliability signals strategy health
+ *
+ * **Operational (21%)**
+ * - Age (8%): Operational track record and battle-testing
+ * - Curator (8%): Management quality and experience
+ * - Settlement (5%): Operational efficiency and delay risk
+ *
+ * **Fee Structure (8%)**
+ * - Fee (8%): Cost drag on returns and alignment of interests
+ *
+ * **Strategy Composition (20%)**
+ * - Yield Sustainability (5%): Native vs incentive-based yield mix
+ * - Integration Complexity (5%): Smart contract attack surface
+ * - Capacity Utilization (5%): Demand signals and deposit headroom
+ * - Protocol Diversification (5%): HHI-based protocol concentration
+ * - Top Protocol Concentration (5%): Single protocol exposure risk
+ *
+ * Total: 100% (weights sum to 1.0)
+ */
+export const RISK_WEIGHTS = {
+    tvl: 0.08,
+    concentration: 0.08,
+    volatility: 0.14,
+    age: 0.08,
+    curator: 0.08,
+    fee: 0.08,
+    liquidity: 0.08,
+    aprConsistency: 0.13,
+    yieldSustainability: 0.05,
+    settlement: 0.05,
+    integrationComplexity: 0.05,
+    capacityUtilization: 0.05,
+    protocolDiversification: 0.05,
+    topProtocolConcentration: 0.05,
+};
 /**
  * Calculate overall risk score with weighted factors
  *
- * @param breakdown - Individual risk factor scores
+ * @param breakdown - Individual risk factor scores (excluding overall and data quality fields)
  * @returns Overall risk score 0-1 and risk level
  */
 export function calculateOverallRisk(breakdown) {
-    // Weighted average of 14 risk factors (updated to include composition)
-    const weights = {
-        tvl: 0.08, // Reduced from 0.1
-        concentration: 0.08, // Reduced from 0.1
-        volatility: 0.14, // Reduced from 0.15
-        age: 0.08, // Reduced from 0.1
-        curator: 0.08, // Reduced from 0.1
-        fee: 0.08, // Reduced from 0.1
-        liquidity: 0.08, // Reduced from 0.1
-        aprConsistency: 0.13, // Reduced from 0.15
-        yieldSustainability: 0.05,
-        settlement: 0.05,
-        integrationComplexity: 0.05,
-        capacityUtilization: 0.05,
-        protocolDiversification: 0.05, // NEW: Composition-based
-        topProtocolConcentration: 0.05, // NEW: Composition-based
-    };
+    // Use the documented risk weights
+    const weights = RISK_WEIGHTS;
     const overallRisk = breakdown.tvlRisk * weights.tvl +
         breakdown.concentrationRisk * weights.concentration +
         breakdown.volatilityRisk * weights.volatility +
@@ -524,29 +556,70 @@ export function calculateOverallRisk(breakdown) {
  * @returns Complete risk score breakdown
  */
 export function analyzeRisk(params) {
+    // Track data quality notes for transparency
+    const dataQualityNotes = [];
     const tvlRisk = calculateTVLRisk(params.tvl);
     const concentrationRisk = calculateConcentrationRisk(params.tvl, params.totalProtocolTVL);
+    // Volatility risk - track if insufficient price history
     const volatilityRisk = calculateVolatilityRisk(params.priceHistory);
+    if (params.priceHistory.length < 7) {
+        dataQualityNotes.push('Limited price history for volatility calculation');
+    }
     const ageRisk = calculateAgeRisk(params.ageInDays);
+    // Curator risk - track if new curator with limited track record
     const curatorRisk = calculateCuratorRisk(params.curatorVaultCount, params.curatorSuccessRate, params.curatorProfessionalSignals);
+    if (params.curatorVaultCount < 3) {
+        dataQualityNotes.push('New curator with limited track record');
+    }
     const feeRisk = calculateFeeRisk(params.managementFee, params.performanceFee, params.performanceFeeActive);
     const liquidityRisk = calculateLiquidityRisk(params.safeAssets, params.pendingRedemptions);
     // Calculate new risk factors (with defaults if data not provided)
-    const aprConsistencyRisk = params.aprData ? calculateAPRConsistencyRisk(params.aprData) : 0.5; // Default to medium risk if no data
-    const yieldSustainabilityRisk = params.yieldComposition
-        ? calculateYieldSustainabilityRisk(params.yieldComposition)
-        : 0.5; // Default to medium risk if no data
-    const settlementRisk = params.settlementData
-        ? calculateSettlementRisk(params.settlementData)
-        : 0.5; // Default to medium risk if no data
-    const integrationComplexityRisk = params.integrationCount !== undefined
-        ? calculateIntegrationComplexityRisk(params.integrationCount)
-        : 0.5; // Default to medium risk if no data
-    const capacityUtilizationRisk = params.capacityData
-        ? calculateCapacityUtilizationRisk(params.capacityData)
-        : 0.2; // Default to low risk (no capacity limit)
-    // NEW: Calculate composition-based risk factors
+    // Track when defaults are used for transparency
+    let aprConsistencyRisk;
+    if (params.aprData) {
+        aprConsistencyRisk = calculateAPRConsistencyRisk(params.aprData);
+    }
+    else {
+        aprConsistencyRisk = 0.5; // Default to medium risk if no data
+        dataQualityNotes.push('APR consistency using default (no historical APR data)');
+    }
+    let yieldSustainabilityRisk;
+    if (params.yieldComposition) {
+        yieldSustainabilityRisk = calculateYieldSustainabilityRisk(params.yieldComposition);
+    }
+    else {
+        yieldSustainabilityRisk = 0.5; // Default to medium risk if no data
+        dataQualityNotes.push('Yield sustainability using default (no composition data)');
+    }
+    let settlementRisk;
+    if (params.settlementData) {
+        settlementRisk = calculateSettlementRisk(params.settlementData);
+    }
+    else {
+        settlementRisk = 0.5; // Default to medium risk if no data
+        dataQualityNotes.push('Settlement risk using default (no settlement data)');
+    }
+    let integrationComplexityRisk;
+    if (params.integrationCount !== undefined) {
+        integrationComplexityRisk = calculateIntegrationComplexityRisk(params.integrationCount);
+    }
+    else {
+        integrationComplexityRisk = 0.5; // Default to medium risk if no data
+        dataQualityNotes.push('Integration complexity using default (no integration data)');
+    }
+    let capacityUtilizationRisk;
+    if (params.capacityData) {
+        capacityUtilizationRisk = calculateCapacityUtilizationRisk(params.capacityData);
+    }
+    else {
+        capacityUtilizationRisk = 0.2; // Default to low risk (no capacity limit)
+        // Not adding note - no capacity limit is normal and not a data quality issue
+    }
+    // Calculate composition-based risk factors
     const protocolDiversificationRisk = calculateProtocolDiversificationRisk(params.compositionData?.compositions);
+    if (!params.compositionData?.compositions?.length) {
+        dataQualityNotes.push('Protocol diversification using default (no composition data)');
+    }
     const topProtocolConcentrationRisk = calculateTopProtocolConcentrationRisk(params.compositionData?.topProtocolPercent);
     const { overallRisk, riskLevel } = calculateOverallRisk({
         tvlRisk,
@@ -564,6 +637,8 @@ export function analyzeRisk(params) {
         protocolDiversificationRisk,
         topProtocolConcentrationRisk,
     });
+    // Determine overall data quality based on number of notes
+    const dataQuality = dataQualityNotes.length === 0 ? 'high' : dataQualityNotes.length <= 2 ? 'medium' : 'low';
     return {
         tvlRisk,
         concentrationRisk,
@@ -581,6 +656,8 @@ export function analyzeRisk(params) {
         topProtocolConcentrationRisk,
         overallRisk,
         riskLevel,
+        dataQuality,
+        dataQualityNotes,
     };
 }
 //# sourceMappingURL=risk-scoring.js.map

package/dist/utils/risk-scoring.js.map

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package/dist/utils/safe-math.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+/**
+ * Safe Math Utilities
+ *
+ * Defensive arithmetic operations to prevent division by zero,
+ * NaN propagation, and empty array exceptions.
+ */
+/**
+ * Safe division with fallback value
+ * @param numerator - The numerator
+ * @param denominator - The denominator
+ * @param fallback - Value to return if division would fail (default: 0)
+ * @returns Result of division or fallback if denominator is 0, NaN, or undefined
+ */
+export declare function safeDivide(numerator: number, denominator: number, fallback?: number): number;
+/**
+ * Safe reduce with empty array guard
+ * @param arr - Array to reduce
+ * @param reducer - Reducer function
+ * @param initial - Initial value
+ * @param emptyFallback - Value to return if array is empty (defaults to initial)
+ */
+export declare function safeReduce<T, R>(arr: T[] | null | undefined, reducer: (acc: R, item: T, index: number) => R, initial: R, emptyFallback?: R): R;
+/**
+ * Safe average calculation
+ * @param values - Array of numbers
+ * @param fallback - Value to return if array is empty or all values are invalid
+ */
+export declare function safeAverage(values: number[] | null | undefined, fallback?: number): number;
+/**
+ * Safe toFixed that handles NaN/undefined
+ * @param value - Number to format
+ * @param decimals - Decimal places
+ * @param fallback - Fallback string if value is invalid
+ */
+export declare function safeToFixed(value: number | null | undefined, decimals?: number, fallback?: string): string;
+/**
+ * Safe percentile calculation
+ * Returns fallback for empty or single-element arrays (where percentile is meaningless)
+ * @param value - The value to find percentile for
+ * @param arr - Array of values to calculate percentile against
+ * @param fallback - Fallback percentile for edge cases (default: 50)
+ */
+export declare function safePercentile(value: number, arr: number[], fallback?: number): number;
+/**
+ * Guard for operations that require non-empty arrays
+ * @param arr - Array to check
+ * @param context - Context description for error message
+ * @returns Object with isEmpty flag and optional data
+ */
+export declare function guardEmptyArray<T>(arr: T[] | null | undefined, context?: string): {
+    isEmpty: true;
+    message: string;
+} | {
+    isEmpty: false;
+    data: T[];
+};
+/**
+ * Safe min/max finder that handles empty arrays
+ * @param arr - Array of numbers
+ * @param type - 'min' or 'max'
+ * @param fallback - Fallback value if array is empty
+ */
+export declare function safeMinMax(arr: number[] | null | undefined, type: 'min' | 'max', fallback?: number): number;
+//# sourceMappingURL=safe-math.d.ts.map

package/dist/utils/safe-math.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"safe-math.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/utils/safe-math.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;GAKG;AAEH;;;;;;GAMG;AACH,wBAAgB,UAAU,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,QAAQ,GAAE,MAAU,GAAG,MAAM,CAM/F;AAED;;;;;;GAMG;AACH,wBAAgB,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,EAC7B,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,SAAS,EAC3B,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC,EAC9C,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,EACV,aAAa,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,GAChB,CAAC,CAKH;AAED;;;;GAIG;AACH,wBAAgB,WAAW,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,SAAS,EAAE,QAAQ,GAAE,MAAU,GAAG,MAAM,CAS7F;AAED;;;;;GAKG;AACH,wBAAgB,WAAW,CACzB,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,SAAS,EAChC,QAAQ,GAAE,MAAU,EACpB,QAAQ,GAAE,MAAc,GACvB,MAAM,CAKR;AAED;;;;;;GAMG;AACH,wBAAgB,cAAc,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,QAAQ,GAAE,MAAW,GAAG,MAAM,CAkB1F;AAED;;;;;GAKG;AACH,wBAAgB,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,EAC/B,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,SAAS,EAC3B,OAAO,GAAE,MAAoB,GAC5B;IAAE,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC;IAAC,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,CAAA;CAAE,GAAG;IAAE,OAAO,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC;IAAC,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAA;CAAE,CAQpE;AAED;;;;;GAKG;AACH,wBAAgB,UAAU,CACxB,GAAG,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,SAAS,EAChC,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,GAAG,KAAK,EACnB,QAAQ,GAAE,MAAU,GACnB,MAAM,CASR"}

package/dist/utils/safe-math.js

@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+/**
+ * Safe Math Utilities
+ *
+ * Defensive arithmetic operations to prevent division by zero,
+ * NaN propagation, and empty array exceptions.
+ */
+/**
+ * Safe division with fallback value
+ * @param numerator - The numerator
+ * @param denominator - The denominator
+ * @param fallback - Value to return if division would fail (default: 0)
+ * @returns Result of division or fallback if denominator is 0, NaN, or undefined
+ */
+export function safeDivide(numerator, denominator, fallback = 0) {
+    if (denominator === 0 || !Number.isFinite(denominator) || !Number.isFinite(numerator)) {
+        return fallback;
+    }
+    const result = numerator / denominator;
+    return Number.isFinite(result) ? result : fallback;
+}
+/**
+ * Safe reduce with empty array guard
+ * @param arr - Array to reduce
+ * @param reducer - Reducer function
+ * @param initial - Initial value
+ * @param emptyFallback - Value to return if array is empty (defaults to initial)
+ */
+export function safeReduce(arr, reducer, initial, emptyFallback) {
+    if (!arr || arr.length === 0) {
+        return emptyFallback !== undefined ? emptyFallback : initial;
+    }
+    return arr.reduce(reducer, initial);
+}
+/**
+ * Safe average calculation
+ * @param values - Array of numbers
+ * @param fallback - Value to return if array is empty or all values are invalid
+ */
+export function safeAverage(values, fallback = 0) {
+    if (!values || values.length === 0) {
+        return fallback;
+    }
+    const validValues = values.filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v));
+    if (validValues.length === 0) {
+        return fallback;
+    }
+    return validValues.reduce((sum, v) => sum + v, 0) / validValues.length;
+}
+/**
+ * Safe toFixed that handles NaN/undefined
+ * @param value - Number to format
+ * @param decimals - Decimal places
+ * @param fallback - Fallback string if value is invalid
+ */
+export function safeToFixed(value, decimals = 2, fallback = 'N/A') {
+    if (value === null || value === undefined || !Number.isFinite(value)) {
+        return fallback;
+    }
+    return value.toFixed(decimals);
+}
+/**
+ * Safe percentile calculation
+ * Returns fallback for empty or single-element arrays (where percentile is meaningless)
+ * @param value - The value to find percentile for
+ * @param arr - Array of values to calculate percentile against
+ * @param fallback - Fallback percentile for edge cases (default: 50)
+ */
+export function safePercentile(value, arr, fallback = 50) {
+    // Guard: empty array
+    if (!arr || arr.length === 0) {
+        return fallback;
+    }
+    // Guard: single element - percentile is meaningless
+    if (arr.length === 1) {
+        return arr[0] === value ? fallback : 0;
+    }
+    const sorted = [...arr].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+    const index = sorted.indexOf(value);
+    if (index === -1)
+        return 0;
+    // sorted.length - 1 is now guaranteed > 0
+    const percentile = (index / (sorted.length - 1)) * 100;
+    return Math.round(percentile * 100) / 100;
+}
+/**
+ * Guard for operations that require non-empty arrays
+ * @param arr - Array to check
+ * @param context - Context description for error message
+ * @returns Object with isEmpty flag and optional data
+ */
+export function guardEmptyArray(arr, context = 'operation') {
+    if (!arr || arr.length === 0) {
+        return {
+            isEmpty: true,
+            message: `No data available for ${context}`,
+        };
+    }
+    return { isEmpty: false, data: arr };
+}
+/**
+ * Safe min/max finder that handles empty arrays
+ * @param arr - Array of numbers
+ * @param type - 'min' or 'max'
+ * @param fallback - Fallback value if array is empty
+ */
+export function safeMinMax(arr, type, fallback = 0) {
+    if (!arr || arr.length === 0) {
+        return fallback;
+    }
+    const validValues = arr.filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v));
+    if (validValues.length === 0) {
+        return fallback;
+    }
+    return type === 'min' ? Math.min(...validValues) : Math.max(...validValues);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=safe-math.js.map

package/dist/utils/safe-math.js.map

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package/dist/utils/yield-prediction.d.ts

@@ -58,6 +58,13 @@ export declare function predictYield(historicalData: YieldDataPoint[], feeParams
     managementFee: number;
     performanceFee: number;
     performanceFeeActive: boolean;
+    /**
+     * Actual profit margin calculated from historical period summaries.
+     * Used to calculate accurate performance fee impact.
+     * If not provided and performanceFeeActive is true, fee-adjusted predictions
+     * will be omitted entirely (no placeholder assumptions).
+     */
+    actualProfitMargin?: number;
 }): YieldPrediction;
 /**
  * Calculate compound APR from multiple yield sources

package/dist/utils/yield-prediction.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/utils/yield-prediction.js

@@ -149,38 +149,56 @@ export function predictYield(historicalData, feeParams) {
     let feeAdjustedReturns;
     let feeImpact;
     if (feeParams) {
-        // Calculate total annual fee drag
-        const performanceFeeDrag = feeParams.performanceFeeActive
-            ? feeParams.performanceFee * 0.1 // Assume 10% average profit for performance fee impact
-            : 0;
-        const totalAnnualFeeDrag = feeParams.managementFee + performanceFeeDrag;
-        // Calculate fee-adjusted APR (gross APR - fees)
-        feeAdjustedAPR = Math.max(0, predictedAPR - totalAnnualFeeDrag);
-        // Calculate fee-adjusted projected returns
-        feeAdjustedReturns = projectedReturns.map((p) => {
-            const feeAdjustment = (((totalAnnualFeeDrag / 100) *
-                (p.timeframe === '7d'
-                    ? 7
-                    : p.timeframe === '30d'
-                        ? 30
-                        : p.timeframe === '90d'
-                            ? 90
-                            : 365)) /
-                365) *
-                100;
-            return {
-                timeframe: p.timeframe,
-                expectedReturn: Math.max(0, p.expectedReturn - feeAdjustment),
-                minReturn: Math.max(0, p.minReturn - feeAdjustment),
-                maxReturn: Math.max(0, p.maxReturn - feeAdjustment),
+        // Calculate performance fee drag only if we have actual profit margin data
+        // Without actual profit data, we cannot accurately estimate performance fee impact
+        let performanceFeeDrag;
+        if (feeParams.performanceFeeActive) {
+            if (feeParams.actualProfitMargin !== undefined) {
+                // Use actual profit margin for accurate performance fee calculation
+                performanceFeeDrag = feeParams.performanceFee * feeParams.actualProfitMargin;
+            }
+            else {
+                // No actual profit data available - cannot calculate fee-adjusted predictions
+                // Omit fee-adjusted predictions entirely rather than using placeholder assumptions
+                performanceFeeDrag = -1; // Sentinel value to indicate unavailable
+            }
+        }
+        else {
+            performanceFeeDrag = 0; // Performance fee not active
+        }
+        // Only calculate fee-adjusted predictions if we have accurate data
+        if (performanceFeeDrag >= 0) {
+            const totalAnnualFeeDrag = feeParams.managementFee + performanceFeeDrag;
+            // Calculate fee-adjusted APR (gross APR - fees)
+            feeAdjustedAPR = Math.max(0, predictedAPR - totalAnnualFeeDrag);
+            // Calculate fee-adjusted projected returns
+            feeAdjustedReturns = projectedReturns.map((p) => {
+                const feeAdjustment = (((totalAnnualFeeDrag / 100) *
+                    (p.timeframe === '7d'
+                        ? 7
+                        : p.timeframe === '30d'
+                            ? 30
+                            : p.timeframe === '90d'
+                                ? 90
+                                : 365)) /
+                    365) *
+                    100;
+                return {
+                    timeframe: p.timeframe,
+                    expectedReturn: Math.max(0, p.expectedReturn - feeAdjustment),
+                    minReturn: Math.max(0, p.minReturn - feeAdjustment),
+                    maxReturn: Math.max(0, p.maxReturn - feeAdjustment),
+                };
+            });
+            feeImpact = {
+                managementFee: feeParams.managementFee,
+                performanceFee: feeParams.performanceFee,
+                totalAnnualFeeDrag,
+                performanceFeeActive: feeParams.performanceFeeActive,
             };
-        });
-        feeImpact = {
-            managementFee: feeParams.managementFee,
-            performanceFee: feeParams.performanceFee,
-            totalAnnualFeeDrag,
-            performanceFeeActive: feeParams.performanceFeeActive,
-        };
+        }
+        // If performanceFeeDrag is -1 (sentinel), feeAdjustedAPR, feeAdjustedReturns,
+        // and feeImpact remain undefined - indicating data unavailable
     }
     // Generate insights
     const insights = generateInsights({

package/dist/utils/yield-prediction.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@lagoon-protocol/lagoon-mcp",
-  "version": "0.2.19",
+  "version": "0.2.21",
   "description": "MCP server for Lagoon DeFi vault analytics - FOR INFORMATIONAL USE ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Natural language access to vault data, portfolios, and performance metrics",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "./dist/index.js",