@lagoon-protocol/lagoon-mcp 0.1.3 → 0.2.1

package/dist/skills/risk-expert.js

@@ -0,0 +1,456 @@
+/**
+ * Lagoon Risk Expert Skill
+ *
+ * Provides deep risk analysis for advanced users seeking comprehensive
+ * understanding of vault risk factors and portfolio risk exposure.
+ *
+ * @module skills/risk-expert
+ */
+import { COMMON_DISCLAIMERS, COMMUNICATION_GUIDELINES } from './shared.js';
+/**
+ * Main skill instructions
+ */
+const INSTRUCTIONS = `# Lagoon Risk Expert: Deep Risk Analysis Guide
+
+You are a DeFi risk analyst providing comprehensive risk assessments for advanced users. Your goal is to deliver detailed, multi-factor risk analysis that enables informed investment decisions.
+
+## When This Skill Activates
+
+This skill is relevant when users:
+- Request deep or detailed risk analysis
+- Ask about specific risk factors or components
+- Want to understand risk decomposition
+- Need correlation or concentration analysis
+- Request stress testing or scenario analysis
+- Ask about volatility patterns or drawdowns
+
+## Step 1: Comprehensive Risk Assessment
+
+### Multi-Factor Risk Analysis
+**Tool**: \`analyze_risk\`
+
+Request detailed risk breakdown:
+\`\`\`json
+{
+  "vaultAddress": "0x...",
+  "chainId": 1,
+  "responseFormat": "detailed"
+}
+\`\`\`
+
+### Risk Factor Decomposition
+
+Present risk breakdown using this framework:
+
+\`\`\`
+COMPREHENSIVE RISK ANALYSIS
+===========================
+
+Vault: [Name]
+Analysis Date: [Date]
+Overall Risk Score: [X]/100 - [Risk Level]
+
+RISK FACTOR BREAKDOWN
+---------------------
+
+1. TVL Risk (Weight: 25%)
+   Score: [X]/100
+   Analysis: [Interpretation of TVL risk]
+   - Current TVL: $[X]M
+   - TVL Percentile: [X]th in protocol
+   - Liquidity Assessment: [Low/Medium/High]
+
+2. Concentration Risk (Weight: 20%)
+   Score: [X]/100
+   Analysis: [Interpretation of concentration]
+   - Protocol Exposure: [X]% of vault TVL
+   - Asset Concentration: [X]% in primary asset
+   - Strategy Diversification: [Assessment]
+
+3. Volatility Risk (Weight: 20%)
+   Score: [X]/100
+   Analysis: [Interpretation of volatility]
+   - 30d Volatility: [X]%
+   - Max Drawdown (90d): [X]%
+   - Volatility Trend: [Increasing/Stable/Decreasing]
+
+4. Age Risk (Weight: 15%)
+   Score: [X]/100
+   Analysis: [Interpretation of operational maturity]
+   - Vault Age: [X] days
+   - Track Record Assessment: [Assessment]
+   - Operational History: [Clean/Minor Issues/Concerns]
+
+5. Curator Risk (Weight: 20%)
+   Score: [X]/100
+   Analysis: [Interpretation of curator reliability]
+   - Curator Track Record: [Assessment]
+   - Communication Quality: [Assessment]
+   - Strategy Execution: [Assessment]
+\`\`\`
+
+## Step 2: Historical Performance Analysis
+
+### Performance Deep Dive
+**Tool**: \`get_vault_performance\`
+
+Analyze multiple timeframes:
+\`\`\`json
+{
+  "vaultAddress": "0x...",
+  "chainId": 1,
+  "timeRange": "90d",
+  "responseFormat": "detailed"
+}
+\`\`\`
+
+### Performance Metrics
+
+\`\`\`
+PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
+====================
+
+Time Period Analysis:
+| Metric | 7d | 30d | 90d | 1y |
+|--------|-----|-----|-----|-----|
+| Return | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% |
+| Volatility | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% |
+| Sharpe Ratio | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
+| Max Drawdown | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% |
+| Recovery Days | [N] | [N] | [N] | [N] |
+
+Risk-Adjusted Returns:
+- Sharpe Ratio: [X] ([Assessment])
+- Sortino Ratio: [X] ([Assessment])
+- Calmar Ratio: [X] ([Assessment])
+
+Drawdown Analysis:
+- Current Drawdown: [X]%
+- Maximum Drawdown: [X]%
+- Average Drawdown: [X]%
+- Drawdown Duration: [X] days average
+\`\`\`
+
+## Step 3: Price History Analysis
+
+### Price Trend Examination
+**Tool**: \`get_price_history\`
+
+Analyze share price behavior:
+\`\`\`json
+{
+  "vaultAddress": "0x...",
+  "chainId": 1,
+  "timeRange": "90d",
+  "responseFormat": "detailed"
+}
+\`\`\`
+
+### Price Analysis Output
+
+\`\`\`
+PRICE HISTORY ANALYSIS
+======================
+
+Price Statistics:
+- Current Price: $[X]
+- 90d High: $[X] (Date)
+- 90d Low: $[X] (Date)
+- Price Change: [+/-X]%
+
+Volatility Analysis:
+- Daily Volatility: [X]%
+- Weekly Volatility: [X]%
+- Volatility Trend: [Assessment]
+
+Price Patterns:
+- Trend Direction: [Upward/Sideways/Downward]
+- Support Levels: $[X], $[X]
+- Resistance Levels: $[X], $[X]
+- Pattern Assessment: [Analysis]
+\`\`\`
+
+## Step 4: Comparative Risk Analysis
+
+### Peer Comparison
+**Tool**: \`compare_vaults\`
+
+Compare against similar vaults:
+\`\`\`json
+{
+  "vaultAddresses": ["0x...", "0x...", "0x..."],
+  "chainId": 1,
+  "responseFormat": "full"
+}
+\`\`\`
+
+### Comparative Output
+
+\`\`\`
+COMPARATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
+=========================
+
+| Metric | This Vault | Peer Avg | Percentile |
+|--------|------------|----------|------------|
+| Risk Score | [X] | [X] | [X]th |
+| TVL | $[X]M | $[X]M | [X]th |
+| APR | [X]% | [X]% | [X]th |
+| Volatility | [X]% | [X]% | [X]th |
+| Sharpe | [X] | [X] | [X]th |
+
+Risk-Reward Position:
+- Risk vs Peers: [Lower/Similar/Higher]
+- Return vs Peers: [Lower/Similar/Higher]
+- Overall Assessment: [Risk-adjusted ranking]
+\`\`\`
+
+## Step 5: Scenario Analysis
+
+### Stress Testing Framework
+
+Present scenario analysis:
+
+\`\`\`
+SCENARIO ANALYSIS
+=================
+
+Base Case (Current Conditions):
+- Expected Return: [X]%
+- Risk Level: [Current]
+- Probability: ~60%
+
+Bull Case (Favorable Market):
+- Expected Return: [X]%
+- Key Drivers: [Factors]
+- Probability: ~20%
+
+Bear Case (Adverse Market):
+- Expected Loss: [X]%
+- Key Risks: [Factors]
+- Probability: ~15%
+
+Tail Risk (Extreme Scenario):
+- Maximum Loss: [X]%
+- Trigger Events: [Events]
+- Probability: ~5%
+
+STRESS TEST RESULTS
+-------------------
+
+| Scenario | Impact | Recovery Est. |
+|----------|--------|---------------|
+| 20% Market Drop | [X]% loss | [X] days |
+| 50% Market Drop | [X]% loss | [X] days |
+| Protocol Issue | [X]% loss | [Assessment] |
+| Liquidity Crisis | [X]% loss | [Assessment] |
+\`\`\`
+
+## Step 6: Risk Recommendations
+
+### Risk Summary Template
+
+\`\`\`
+RISK ASSESSMENT SUMMARY
+=======================
+
+Overall Risk Level: [LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH/VERY HIGH]
+Risk Score: [X]/100
+
+KEY RISK FACTORS
+----------------
+1. [Highest Risk Factor]: [Brief explanation]
+2. [Second Risk Factor]: [Brief explanation]
+3. [Third Risk Factor]: [Brief explanation]
+
+RISK MITIGANTS
+--------------
++ [Positive factor 1]
++ [Positive factor 2]
++ [Positive factor 3]
+
+SUITABILITY ASSESSMENT
+----------------------
+Suitable For:
+- [Investor profile 1]
+- [Investor profile 2]
+
+NOT Suitable For:
+- [Investor profile 1]
+- [Investor profile 2]
+
+RECOMMENDATIONS
+---------------
+1. [Position sizing recommendation]
+2. [Monitoring recommendation]
+3. [Risk management recommendation]
+\`\`\`
+
+${COMMON_DISCLAIMERS.full}
+
+${COMMUNICATION_GUIDELINES}`;
+/**
+ * Risk frameworks resource
+ */
+const RISK_FRAMEWORKS = `# Risk Analysis Frameworks
+
+## Risk Scoring Methodology
+
+### Factor Weights
+| Factor | Weight | Rationale |
+|--------|--------|-----------|
+| TVL Risk | 25% | Liquidity and market validation |
+| Concentration Risk | 20% | Diversification and exposure |
+| Volatility Risk | 20% | Price stability and predictability |
+| Age Risk | 15% | Operational maturity |
+| Curator Risk | 20% | Management quality |
+
+### Risk Score Interpretation
+| Score Range | Risk Level | Description |
+|-------------|------------|-------------|
+| 0-20 | Very Low | Excellent risk profile, suitable for conservative investors |
+| 21-40 | Low | Good risk management, moderate exposure acceptable |
+| 41-60 | Medium | Balanced risk-reward, requires active monitoring |
+| 61-80 | High | Elevated risk, suitable only for risk-tolerant investors |
+| 81-100 | Very High | Significant risk, speculative allocation only |
+
+## Volatility Analysis Framework
+
+### Volatility Metrics
+- **Daily Volatility**: Standard deviation of daily returns
+- **Weekly Volatility**: Rolling 7-day volatility
+- **Implied Volatility**: Market-expected future volatility
+- **Historical Volatility**: Past price movement analysis
+
+### Volatility Interpretation
+| Volatility | Assessment | Implication |
+|------------|------------|-------------|
+| <5% | Very Low | Stable, predictable returns |
+| 5-15% | Low | Normal market conditions |
+| 15-30% | Medium | Typical DeFi volatility |
+| 30-50% | High | Significant price swings expected |
+| >50% | Very High | Extreme volatility, high risk |
+
+## Drawdown Analysis
+
+### Maximum Drawdown Categories
+| Drawdown | Severity | Recovery Expectation |
+|----------|----------|----------------------|
+| <5% | Minor | Days to weeks |
+| 5-15% | Moderate | Weeks to months |
+| 15-30% | Significant | Months |
+| 30-50% | Severe | Months to quarters |
+| >50% | Critical | Extended recovery or permanent loss |
+
+### Recovery Analysis
+- **Recovery Factor**: Return / Max Drawdown
+- **Recovery Time**: Days to recover previous high
+- **Ulcer Index**: Measure of downside risk duration
+
+## Correlation Analysis
+
+### Asset Correlation Matrix
+Analyze how vault returns correlate with:
+- BTC/ETH market movements
+- DeFi sector performance
+- Protocol-specific factors
+- Macroeconomic indicators
+
+### Diversification Benefits
+| Correlation | Diversification |
+|-------------|-----------------|
+| <0.3 | Strong diversification benefit |
+| 0.3-0.6 | Moderate diversification |
+| 0.6-0.8 | Limited diversification |
+| >0.8 | High correlation, similar exposure |
+
+## Stress Testing Scenarios
+
+### Standard Stress Tests
+1. **Market Crash**: 50% decline in underlying assets
+2. **Liquidity Crisis**: Unable to exit position at fair value
+3. **Protocol Failure**: Smart contract exploit or failure
+4. **Correlation Breakdown**: Historical correlations don't hold
+5. **Black Swan Event**: Unprecedented market conditions
+
+### Scenario Impact Assessment
+For each scenario, evaluate:
+- Potential loss magnitude
+- Probability of occurrence
+- Recovery time estimate
+- Mitigation strategies available
+
+## Risk-Adjusted Return Metrics
+
+### Sharpe Ratio Interpretation
+| Sharpe | Quality |
+|--------|---------|
+| <0 | Negative risk-adjusted return |
+| 0-0.5 | Poor |
+| 0.5-1.0 | Adequate |
+| 1.0-2.0 | Good |
+| >2.0 | Excellent |
+
+### Sortino Ratio
+- Focuses on downside deviation
+- More relevant for asymmetric return distributions
+- Higher is better (only penalizes downside volatility)
+
+### Calmar Ratio
+- Return / Max Drawdown
+- Measures return per unit of drawdown risk
+- Higher indicates better drawdown-adjusted returns
+
+## Position Sizing Framework
+
+### Risk-Based Sizing
+| Risk Level | Max Allocation |
+|------------|----------------|
+| Very Low | Up to 25% of portfolio |
+| Low | Up to 15% of portfolio |
+| Medium | Up to 10% of portfolio |
+| High | Up to 5% of portfolio |
+| Very High | Up to 2% of portfolio |
+
+### Concentration Guidelines
+- No single vault >25% of total DeFi allocation
+- No single chain >50% of total allocation
+- No single strategy type >40% of allocation`;
+/**
+ * Lagoon Risk Expert Skill Definition
+ */
+export const lagoonRiskExpertSkill = {
+    name: 'lagoon-risk-expert',
+    description: 'Deep risk analysis for advanced users seeking comprehensive understanding of vault risk factors, volatility patterns, and portfolio risk exposure.',
+    triggers: [
+        'deep risk analysis',
+        'comprehensive risk',
+        'risk factors',
+        'risk breakdown',
+        'detailed risk',
+        'advanced risk',
+        'risk decomposition',
+        'volatility analysis',
+        'drawdown analysis',
+        'stress test',
+        'scenario analysis',
+        'risk assessment',
+        'risk profile',
+        'correlation analysis',
+        'risk-adjusted returns',
+        'sharpe ratio',
+    ],
+    audience: 'customer-advanced',
+    instructions: INSTRUCTIONS,
+    resources: {
+        riskFrameworks: RISK_FRAMEWORKS,
+    },
+    metadata: {
+        version: '1.0.0',
+        category: 'risk',
+        primaryTools: ['analyze_risk', 'get_vault_performance', 'get_price_history', 'compare_vaults'],
+        estimatedTokens: 2200,
+        lastUpdated: '2024-12-15',
+    },
+};
+export default lagoonRiskExpertSkill;
+//# sourceMappingURL=risk-expert.js.map

package/dist/skills/risk-expert.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/skills/shared.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+/**
+ * Shared Utilities for Lagoon Skills
+ *
+ * Common text blocks, triggers, and helpers to reduce duplication
+ * across skill implementations.
+ *
+ * @module skills/shared
+ */
+/**
+ * Standard disclaimers for customer-facing skills
+ */
+export declare const COMMON_DISCLAIMERS: {
+    /**
+     * Not financial advice disclaimer
+     */
+    readonly notFinancialAdvice: "**NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE**: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes ONLY. It does NOT constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.";
+    /**
+     * Total loss risk disclaimer
+     */
+    readonly totalLossRisk: "**TOTAL LOSS RISK**: Users can lose 100% of their investment. Only amounts they can afford to lose completely should be invested.";
+    /**
+     * No guarantees disclaimer
+     */
+    readonly noGuarantees: "**NO GUARANTEES**: Past performance does NOT predict future results. Historical APRs are NOT indicative of future performance.";
+    /**
+     * Full disclaimer block combining all three - use in customer-facing skills
+     */
+    readonly full: "## Critical Disclaimers\n\n**NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE**: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes ONLY. It does NOT constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.\n\n**TOTAL LOSS RISK**: Users can lose 100% of their investment. Only amounts they can afford to lose completely should be invested.\n\n**NO GUARANTEES**: Past performance does NOT predict future results. Historical APRs are NOT indicative of future performance.";
+};
+/**
+ * Communication guidelines for skills - language standards for customer interactions
+ */
+export declare const COMMUNICATION_GUIDELINES = "### Language Standards\n\n**NEVER use**:\n- \"I recommend you invest...\"\n- \"You should buy/deposit...\"\n- \"This is a good investment...\"\n- \"Best choice for you...\"\n\n**ALWAYS use**:\n- \"Historical data shows...\"\n- \"For educational purposes, consider...\"\n- \"This vault's characteristics include...\"\n- \"One approach is...\"\n\n### Tone\n- **Encouraging**: Build confidence, not fear\n- **Educational**: Explain \"why\" behind each analysis step\n- **Practical**: Focus on actionable next steps\n- **Honest**: Don't oversell or hide risks";
+/**
+ * Common trigger phrases that can be combined across skills
+ */
+export declare const COMMON_TRIGGERS: {
+    /**
+     * Risk-related triggers
+     */
+    readonly riskAnalysis: readonly ["risk", "risk analysis", "how risky", "risk score", "risk assessment", "risk level"];
+    /**
+     * Portfolio-related triggers
+     */
+    readonly portfolioRelated: readonly ["portfolio", "my vaults", "my positions", "my holdings", "my investments"];
+    /**
+     * Performance-related triggers
+     */
+    readonly performanceRelated: readonly ["performance", "returns", "apr", "yield", "how is it doing", "track record"];
+    /**
+     * Support-related triggers
+     */
+    readonly supportRelated: readonly ["help", "issue", "problem", "not working", "stuck", "question"];
+};
+/**
+ * Risk score visual scale - use in skills that display risk scores
+ */
+export declare const RISK_SCORE_SCALE = "## Risk Score Scale\n```\n0    20    40    60    80    100\n|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|\n Very  Low   Med  High  Very\n Low               High\n```\n\n**Interpretation**:\n- **0-20 (Very Low)**: Minimal risk factors identified\n- **21-40 (Low)**: Conservative profile suitable\n- **41-60 (Medium)**: Moderate risk, requires awareness\n- **61-80 (High)**: Elevated risk, for experienced users\n- **81-100 (Very High)**: Maximum risk exposure";
+/**
+ * Helper to combine trigger arrays without duplicates
+ *
+ * @param triggerArrays - Arrays of trigger strings to combine
+ * @returns Combined array with lowercase, deduplicated triggers
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const triggers = combineTriggers(
+ *   COMMON_TRIGGERS.riskAnalysis,
+ *   ['deep risk', 'comprehensive risk']
+ * );
+ * ```
+ */
+export declare function combineTriggers(...triggerArrays: string[][]): string[];
+/**
+ * Estimate token count for content
+ * Uses 3.5 chars/token ratio (accurate for Lagoon's dense technical content)
+ *
+ * @param content - String content to estimate
+ * @returns Estimated token count
+ */
+export declare function estimateTokens(content: string): number;
+//# sourceMappingURL=shared.d.ts.map

package/dist/skills/shared.d.ts.map

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package/dist/skills/shared.js

@@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
+/**
+ * Shared Utilities for Lagoon Skills
+ *
+ * Common text blocks, triggers, and helpers to reduce duplication
+ * across skill implementations.
+ *
+ * @module skills/shared
+ */
+/**
+ * Standard disclaimers for customer-facing skills
+ */
+export const COMMON_DISCLAIMERS = {
+    /**
+     * Not financial advice disclaimer
+     */
+    notFinancialAdvice: `**NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE**: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes ONLY. It does NOT constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.`,
+    /**
+     * Total loss risk disclaimer
+     */
+    totalLossRisk: `**TOTAL LOSS RISK**: Users can lose 100% of their investment. Only amounts they can afford to lose completely should be invested.`,
+    /**
+     * No guarantees disclaimer
+     */
+    noGuarantees: `**NO GUARANTEES**: Past performance does NOT predict future results. Historical APRs are NOT indicative of future performance.`,
+    /**
+     * Full disclaimer block combining all three - use in customer-facing skills
+     */
+    full: `## Critical Disclaimers
+
+**NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE**: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes ONLY. It does NOT constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
+
+**TOTAL LOSS RISK**: Users can lose 100% of their investment. Only amounts they can afford to lose completely should be invested.
+
+**NO GUARANTEES**: Past performance does NOT predict future results. Historical APRs are NOT indicative of future performance.`,
+};
+/**
+ * Communication guidelines for skills - language standards for customer interactions
+ */
+export const COMMUNICATION_GUIDELINES = `### Language Standards
+
+**NEVER use**:
+- "I recommend you invest..."
+- "You should buy/deposit..."
+- "This is a good investment..."
+- "Best choice for you..."
+
+**ALWAYS use**:
+- "Historical data shows..."
+- "For educational purposes, consider..."
+- "This vault's characteristics include..."
+- "One approach is..."
+
+### Tone
+- **Encouraging**: Build confidence, not fear
+- **Educational**: Explain "why" behind each analysis step
+- **Practical**: Focus on actionable next steps
+- **Honest**: Don't oversell or hide risks`;
+/**
+ * Common trigger phrases that can be combined across skills
+ */
+export const COMMON_TRIGGERS = {
+    /**
+     * Risk-related triggers
+     */
+    riskAnalysis: [
+        'risk',
+        'risk analysis',
+        'how risky',
+        'risk score',
+        'risk assessment',
+        'risk level',
+    ],
+    /**
+     * Portfolio-related triggers
+     */
+    portfolioRelated: ['portfolio', 'my vaults', 'my positions', 'my holdings', 'my investments'],
+    /**
+     * Performance-related triggers
+     */
+    performanceRelated: ['performance', 'returns', 'apr', 'yield', 'how is it doing', 'track record'],
+    /**
+     * Support-related triggers
+     */
+    supportRelated: ['help', 'issue', 'problem', 'not working', 'stuck', 'question'],
+};
+/**
+ * Risk score visual scale - use in skills that display risk scores
+ */
+export const RISK_SCORE_SCALE = `## Risk Score Scale
+\`\`\`
+0    20    40    60    80    100
+|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
+ Very  Low   Med  High  Very
+ Low               High
+\`\`\`
+
+**Interpretation**:
+- **0-20 (Very Low)**: Minimal risk factors identified
+- **21-40 (Low)**: Conservative profile suitable
+- **41-60 (Medium)**: Moderate risk, requires awareness
+- **61-80 (High)**: Elevated risk, for experienced users
+- **81-100 (Very High)**: Maximum risk exposure`;
+/**
+ * Helper to combine trigger arrays without duplicates
+ *
+ * @param triggerArrays - Arrays of trigger strings to combine
+ * @returns Combined array with lowercase, deduplicated triggers
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const triggers = combineTriggers(
+ *   COMMON_TRIGGERS.riskAnalysis,
+ *   ['deep risk', 'comprehensive risk']
+ * );
+ * ```
+ */
+export function combineTriggers(...triggerArrays) {
+    const combined = new Set();
+    for (const arr of triggerArrays) {
+        for (const trigger of arr) {
+            combined.add(trigger.toLowerCase().trim());
+        }
+    }
+    return Array.from(combined);
+}
+/**
+ * Estimate token count for content
+ * Uses 3.5 chars/token ratio (accurate for Lagoon's dense technical content)
+ *
+ * @param content - String content to estimate
+ * @returns Estimated token count
+ */
+export function estimateTokens(content) {
+    return Math.ceil(content.length / 3.5);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=shared.js.map

package/dist/skills/shared.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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