@lagoon-protocol/lagoon-mcp 0.1.0

package/dist/tools/optimize-portfolio.js

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+/**
+ * optimize_portfolio Tool
+ *
+ * Portfolio optimization with rebalancing recommendations using parallel vault queries.
+ * Analyzes current holdings and provides optimal allocation strategy based on
+ * per-vault historical data (price history and performance metrics).
+ *
+ * Implementation:
+ * - Executes N parallel GraphQL queries (one per vault) using Promise.all
+ * - Each vault gets up to 1000 transactions of historical data
+ * - Processes per-vault price history for accurate volatility calculation
+ * - Uses per-vault performance data for expected APR estimation
+ *
+ * Use cases:
+ * - Portfolio rebalancing and optimization
+ * - Risk-adjusted allocation strategies (equal_weight, risk_parity, max_sharpe, min_variance)
+ * - Diversification improvement
+ * - Performance enhancement through optimal weighting
+ * - Performance: ~800-1200 tokens per optimization (scales with vault count)
+ *
+ * Cache strategy:
+ * - 30-minute TTL (balances freshness with stability)
+ * - Cache key: portfolio_optimization:{chainId}:{vaultAddresses}:{strategy}
+ * - Cache hit rate target: 70-80%
+ * - Cache tags: [CacheTag.PORTFOLIO, CacheTag.ANALYTICS] for invalidation
+ */
+import { getToolDisclaimer } from '../utils/disclaimers.js';
+import { SINGLE_VAULT_OPTIMIZATION_QUERY } from '../graphql/queries/index.js';
+import { optimizePortfolio, } from '../utils/portfolio-optimization.js';
+import { calculatePricePerShare } from '../sdk/vault-utils.js';
+import { CacheTag } from '../core/cache-invalidation.js';
+import { cacheTTL } from '../cache/index.js';
+import { analyzeRisk } from '../utils/risk-scoring.js';
+/**
+ * Calculate volatility from price history
+ */
+function calculateVolatility(prices) {
+    if (prices.length < 2) {
+        return 0.05; // Default 5% volatility if insufficient data
+    }
+    // Calculate daily returns
+    const returns = [];
+    for (let i = 1; i < prices.length; i++) {
+        if (prices[i - 1] !== 0) {
+            const dailyReturn = (prices[i] - prices[i - 1]) / prices[i - 1];
+            returns.push(dailyReturn);
+        }
+    }
+    if (returns.length === 0) {
+        return 0.05;
+    }
+    // Calculate standard deviation of returns
+    const mean = returns.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r, 0) / returns.length;
+    const variance = returns.reduce((sum, r) => sum + Math.pow(r - mean, 2), 0) / returns.length;
+    const stdDev = Math.sqrt(variance);
+    // Annualize volatility (assuming daily data)
+    return stdDev * Math.sqrt(365);
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate average APR from performance data
+ */
+function calculateAverageAPR(aprValues) {
+    if (aprValues.length === 0) {
+        return 0;
+    }
+    return aprValues.reduce((sum, apr) => sum + apr, 0) / aprValues.length;
+}
+/**
+ * Format portfolio optimization as markdown
+ */
+function formatPortfolioOptimization(optimization, responseFormat = 'balanced') {
+    const strategyNames = {
+        equal_weight: 'Equal Weight',
+        risk_parity: 'Risk Parity',
+        max_sharpe: 'Maximum Sharpe Ratio',
+        min_variance: 'Minimum Variance',
+    };
+    const rebalanceStatus = optimization.rebalanceNeeded
+        ? '⚠️ Rebalancing Recommended'
+        : '✅ Well-Balanced';
+    const rebalanceEmoji = optimization.rebalanceNeeded ? '⚠️' : '✅';
+    // Quick format: Only show rebalance status and top 3 actions
+    if (responseFormat === 'quick') {
+        const topActions = optimization.positions
+            .sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.targetAllocation - b.currentAllocation) -
+            Math.abs(a.targetAllocation - a.currentAllocation))
+            .slice(0, 3);
+        return `
+## ${rebalanceEmoji} Portfolio: ${rebalanceStatus}
+
+**Total Value**: $${optimization.totalValueUsd.toLocaleString('en-US', { minimumFractionDigits: 2, maximumFractionDigits: 2 })} | **Positions**: ${optimization.positions.length} | **Strategy**: ${strategyNames[optimization.strategy]}
+
+${optimization.rebalanceNeeded
+            ? `### Top Rebalancing Actions
+
+${topActions
+                .map((pos) => {
+                const drift = pos.targetAllocation - pos.currentAllocation;
+                const action = Math.abs(drift) <= 1 ? 'Hold' : drift > 0 ? 'Buy' : 'Sell';
+                const actionEmoji = action === 'Hold' ? '➡️' : action === 'Buy' ? '🟢' : '🔴';
+                return `${actionEmoji} **${pos.vaultName}**: ${action} $${Math.abs(pos.rebalanceAmount).toLocaleString('en-US', { minimumFractionDigits: 2, maximumFractionDigits: 2 })} (${drift > 0 ? '+' : ''}${drift.toFixed(1)}% drift)`;
+            })
+                .join('\n')}`
+            : '✅ **No action needed** - portfolio is well-balanced'}
+`;
+    }
+    // Balanced and detailed formats use full output
+    return `
+## Portfolio Optimization: ${strategyNames[optimization.strategy]}
+
+### Portfolio Summary
+- **Total Value**: $${optimization.totalValueUsd.toLocaleString('en-US', { minimumFractionDigits: 2, maximumFractionDigits: 2 })}
+- **Number of Positions**: ${optimization.positions.length}
+- **Rebalance Status**: ${rebalanceStatus}
+- **Rebalance Threshold**: ${optimization.rebalanceThreshold.toFixed(1)}%
+
+---
+
+### Portfolio Metrics
+
+| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
+|--------|-------|----------------|
+| **Expected Return** | ${optimization.metrics.expectedReturn.toFixed(2)}% | Annualized portfolio return |
+| **Portfolio Risk** | ${optimization.metrics.portfolioRisk.toFixed(2)}% | Volatility (std. deviation) |
+| **Sharpe Ratio** | ${optimization.metrics.sharpeRatio.toFixed(2)} | Risk-adjusted return |
+| **Diversification** | ${(optimization.metrics.diversificationScore * 100).toFixed(0)}% | Portfolio concentration |
+
+---
+
+### ${rebalanceEmoji} Position Allocations
+
+| Vault | Current | Target | Drift | Action | Amount |
+|-------|---------|--------|-------|--------|--------|
+${optimization.positions
+        .sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.targetAllocation - b.currentAllocation) -
+        Math.abs(a.targetAllocation - a.currentAllocation))
+        .map((pos) => {
+        const drift = pos.targetAllocation - pos.currentAllocation;
+        const driftEmoji = Math.abs(drift) > 5 ? (drift > 0 ? '🔼' : '🔽') : '➡️';
+        const action = Math.abs(drift) <= 1 ? 'Hold' : drift > 0 ? 'Buy' : 'Sell';
+        const actionEmoji = action === 'Hold' ? '➡️' : action === 'Buy' ? '🟢' : '🔴';
+        return `| **${pos.vaultName}** | ${pos.currentAllocation.toFixed(1)}% | ${pos.targetAllocation.toFixed(1)}% | ${driftEmoji} ${drift > 0 ? '+' : ''}${drift.toFixed(1)}% | ${actionEmoji} ${action} | $${Math.abs(pos.rebalanceAmount).toLocaleString('en-US', { minimumFractionDigits: 2, maximumFractionDigits: 2 })} |`;
+    })
+        .join('\n')}
+
+---
+
+### Rebalancing Actions
+
+${optimization.rebalanceNeeded
+        ? `
+**Positions to Reduce** 🔴
+${optimization.positions
+            .filter((pos) => pos.rebalanceAmount < -100)
+            .sort((a, b) => a.rebalanceAmount - b.rebalanceAmount)
+            .map((pos) => `- **${pos.vaultName}**: Reduce by $${Math.abs(pos.rebalanceAmount).toLocaleString('en-US', { minimumFractionDigits: 2, maximumFractionDigits: 2 })} (${Math.abs(pos.rebalancePercentage).toFixed(1)}%)`)
+            .join('\n') || '- No significant reductions needed'}
+
+**Positions to Increase** 🟢
+${optimization.positions
+            .filter((pos) => pos.rebalanceAmount > 100)
+            .sort((a, b) => b.rebalanceAmount - a.rebalanceAmount)
+            .map((pos) => `- **${pos.vaultName}**: Increase by $${pos.rebalanceAmount.toLocaleString('en-US', { minimumFractionDigits: 2, maximumFractionDigits: 2 })} (${pos.rebalancePercentage.toFixed(1)}%)`)
+            .join('\n') || '- No significant increases needed'}
+`
+        : '✅ **No rebalancing needed** - all positions are within the drift threshold'}
+
+---
+
+### Yield Sustainability Warnings
+
+${(() => {
+        const warnings = [];
+        optimization.positions.forEach((pos) => {
+            if (pos.vault.riskBreakdown) {
+                const yieldRisk = pos.vault.riskBreakdown.yieldSustainabilityRisk;
+                if (yieldRisk >= 0.7) {
+                    warnings.push(`🚨 **${pos.vaultName}** (High Risk): Yield heavily dependent on temporary incentives/airdrops (<20% native).`);
+                }
+                else if (yieldRisk >= 0.4) {
+                    warnings.push(`⚠️ **${pos.vaultName}** (Medium Risk): Monitor yield composition - significant portion from temporary incentives.`);
+                }
+            }
+        });
+        return warnings.length > 0
+            ? warnings.join('\n')
+            : '✅ **No sustainability concerns** - all vaults have healthy yield compositions';
+    })()}
+
+---
+
+### Key Insights
+
+${optimization.recommendations.map((rec) => `- ${rec}`).join('\n')}
+
+---
+
+### Strategy Information
+
+**${strategyNames[optimization.strategy]}** optimizes your portfolio by:
+${optimization.strategy === 'equal_weight'
+        ? '- Allocating equal weights to all vaults for maximum diversification'
+        : optimization.strategy === 'risk_parity'
+            ? '- Balancing risk contribution across vaults (lower risk = higher allocation)'
+            : optimization.strategy === 'max_sharpe'
+                ? '- Maximizing risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio optimization)'
+                : '- Minimizing portfolio volatility through low-variance allocations'}
+
+**Risk-Free Rate**: 2.0% (used for Sharpe ratio calculation)
+
+---
+
+**Note**: Recommendations are based on historical performance and risk metrics. Consider transaction costs, tax implications, and market conditions before rebalancing.
+`;
+}
+/**
+ * Process single vault response and extract historical data
+ */
+function processSingleVaultData(data, timestampThreshold) {
+    if (!data.vault) {
+        return null;
+    }
+    // Extract price history with timestamp filtering
+    // Calculate price per share using Lagoon SDK
+    const prices = [];
+    if (data.priceHistory && data.priceHistory.items) {
+        for (const item of data.priceHistory.items) {
+            if (parseInt(item.timestamp) >= timestampThreshold) {
+                const vaultDecimals = item.data.vault.decimals;
+                const assetDecimals = item.data.vault.asset.decimals;
+                const pricePerShareBigInt = calculatePricePerShare(BigInt(item.data.totalAssets), BigInt(item.data.totalSupply), vaultDecimals, assetDecimals);
+                // Convert to number for volatility calculations (in asset decimals)
+                const pricePerShare = Number(pricePerShareBigInt) / 10 ** assetDecimals;
+                prices.push(pricePerShare);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    // Use pre-calculated APR from vault state
+    // Prefer monthlyApr, fallback to weeklyApr, then yearlyApr
+    const performance = [];
+    const apr = data.vault.state?.monthlyApr?.linearNetApr ??
+        data.vault.state?.weeklyApr?.linearNetApr ??
+        data.vault.state?.yearlyApr?.linearNetApr ??
+        0;
+    // Convert APR to percentage (API returns decimal, e.g., 0.15 = 15%)
+    const aprPercentage = apr * 100;
+    // If we have price history, create a matching performance array
+    if (prices.length > 0) {
+        performance.push(aprPercentage);
+    }
+    return {
+        vault: data.vault,
+        prices,
+        performance,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Transform combined vault data into portfolio optimization markdown output
+ */
+function transformOptimizationData(input, combinedData) {
+    // Build current positions map from input
+    const currentPositions = new Map();
+    for (const position of input.currentPositions) {
+        currentPositions.set(position.vaultAddress.toLowerCase(), position.valueUsd);
+    }
+    // Prepare vaults for optimization with per-vault historical data
+    const vaultsForOptimization = combinedData.vaults.map((vault) => {
+        const vaultAddress = vault.address.toLowerCase();
+        const currentValueUsd = currentPositions.get(vaultAddress) || 0;
+        // Get vault-specific price history and calculate volatility
+        const priceHistory = combinedData.priceHistoryByVault.get(vaultAddress) || [];
+        const volatility = calculateVolatility(priceHistory);
+        // Get vault-specific performance data and calculate expected APR
+        const aprHistory = combinedData.performanceByVault.get(vaultAddress) || [];
+        const expectedApr = calculateAverageAPR(aprHistory);
+        // Calculate comprehensive 12-factor risk score
+        let riskScore = Math.min(1, volatility / 0.2); // Fallback to volatility-based
+        let riskBreakdown;
+        try {
+            // Extract data for comprehensive risk calculation
+            const vaultTVL = vault.state?.totalAssetsUsd || 0;
+            const totalProtocolTVL = combinedData.vaults.reduce((sum, v) => sum + (v.state?.totalAssetsUsd || 0), 0);
+            // Age in days - default to 180 days (6 months) as we don't have creation timestamp in optimization
+            const ageInDays = 180;
+            // Curator professional signals
+            const curators = vault.curators || [];
+            const professionalSignals = {
+                hasWebsite: curators.some((c) => c.url && c.url.trim() !== ''),
+                hasDescription: curators.some((c) => c.aboutDescription && c.aboutDescription.trim() !== ''),
+                multipleCurators: curators.length > 1,
+                curatorCount: curators.length,
+            };
+            // Fee data
+            const managementFee = vault.state?.managementFee || 0;
+            const performanceFee = vault.state?.performanceFee || 0;
+            const pricePerShare = BigInt(vault.state?.pricePerShare || '0');
+            const highWaterMark = BigInt(vault.state?.highWaterMark || '0');
+            const performanceFeeActive = pricePerShare > highWaterMark;
+            // Liquidity data
+            const safeAssets = vault.state?.safeAssetBalanceUsd || 0;
+            const pendingRedemptions = vault.state?.pendingSettlement?.assetsUsd || 0;
+            // APR consistency data
+            const aprData = {
+                weeklyApr: vault.state?.weeklyApr?.linearNetApr,
+                monthlyApr: vault.state?.monthlyApr?.linearNetApr,
+                yearlyApr: vault.state?.yearlyApr?.linearNetApr,
+                inceptionApr: vault.state?.inceptionApr?.linearNetApr,
+            };
+            // Yield composition
+            const weeklyAprData = vault.state?.weeklyApr;
+            const yieldComposition = weeklyAprData
+                ? {
+                    totalApr: weeklyAprData.linearNetApr || 0,
+                    nativeYieldsApr: weeklyAprData.nativeYields?.reduce((sum, ny) => sum + (ny.apr || 0), 0) || 0,
+                    airdropsApr: weeklyAprData.airdrops?.reduce((sum, ad) => sum + (ad.apr || 0), 0) || 0,
+                    incentivesApr: weeklyAprData.incentives?.reduce((sum, inc) => sum + (inc.apr || 0), 0) || 0,
+                }
+                : undefined;
+            // Settlement data
+            const averageSettlement = vault.averageSettlement || 0;
+            const pendingOperationsRatio = safeAssets > 0 ? pendingRedemptions / safeAssets : 0;
+            const settlementData = {
+                averageSettlementDays: averageSettlement,
+                pendingOperationsRatio,
+            };
+            // Integration complexity
+            const integrationCount = vault.defiIntegrations?.length || 0;
+            // Capacity utilization
+            const totalAssets = parseFloat(vault.state?.totalAssets || '0');
+            const maxCapacity = vault.maxCapacity ? parseFloat(vault.maxCapacity) : null;
+            const capacityData = {
+                totalAssets,
+                maxCapacity,
+            };
+            // Calculate comprehensive risk using analyzeRisk utility
+            riskBreakdown = analyzeRisk({
+                tvl: vaultTVL,
+                totalProtocolTVL,
+                priceHistory,
+                ageInDays,
+                curatorVaultCount: vault.curators?.length || 1,
+                curatorSuccessRate: 0.5, // Default without historical data
+                curatorProfessionalSignals: professionalSignals,
+                managementFee,
+                performanceFee,
+                performanceFeeActive,
+                safeAssets,
+                pendingRedemptions,
+                aprData,
+                yieldComposition,
+                settlementData,
+                integrationCount,
+                capacityData,
+            });
+            riskScore = riskBreakdown.overallRisk;
+        }
+        catch (error) {
+            console.error(`Failed to calculate comprehensive risk for vault ${vault.address}:`, error);
+            // Fall back to volatility-based risk score
+        }
+        return {
+            address: vault.address,
+            name: vault.name || 'Unknown Vault',
+            chainId: vault.chain.id,
+            currentValueUsd,
+            expectedApr,
+            volatility,
+            riskScore,
+            riskBreakdown,
+        };
+    });
+    // Perform portfolio optimization
+    const optimization = optimizePortfolio(vaultsForOptimization, input.strategy, input.rebalanceThreshold);
+    // Format optimization as markdown
+    const responseFormat = (input.responseFormat ?? 'balanced');
+    const markdown = formatPortfolioOptimization(optimization, responseFormat);
+    return { markdown };
+}
+/**
+ * Create the executeOptimizePortfolio function with DI container
+ *
+ * @param container - Service container with dependencies
+ * @returns Configured tool executor function
+ */
+export function createExecuteOptimizePortfolio(container) {
+    return async (input) => {
+        try {
+            // Calculate timestamp threshold for 90-day lookback
+            const nowTimestamp = Math.floor(Date.now() / 1000);
+            const lookbackSeconds = 90 * 24 * 60 * 60; // 90 days
+            const timestampThreshold = nowTimestamp - lookbackSeconds;
+            // Check cache first
+            const vaultAddressesKey = input.vaultAddresses.sort().join(',');
+            const cacheKey = `portfolio_optimization:${input.chainId}:${vaultAddressesKey}:${input.strategy}:${input.responseFormat || 'balanced'}`;
+            const cachedResult = container.cache.get(cacheKey);
+            if (cachedResult) {
+                return {
+                    content: [{ type: 'text', text: cachedResult }],
+                    isError: false,
+                };
+            }
+            // Execute parallel queries for each vault
+            const vaultQueries = input.vaultAddresses.map((vaultAddress) => container.graphqlClient.request(SINGLE_VAULT_OPTIMIZATION_QUERY, {
+                vaultAddress,
+                chainId: input.chainId,
+            }));
+            const results = await Promise.all(vaultQueries);
+            // Process each vault's data
+            const vaults = [];
+            const priceHistoryByVault = new Map();
+            const performanceByVault = new Map();
+            for (const result of results) {
+                const processed = processSingleVaultData(result, timestampThreshold);
+                if (processed) {
+                    vaults.push(processed.vault);
+                    priceHistoryByVault.set(processed.vault.address.toLowerCase(), processed.prices);
+                    performanceByVault.set(processed.vault.address.toLowerCase(), processed.performance);
+                }
+            }
+            // Validate we got data for all vaults
+            if (vaults.length === 0) {
+                return {
+                    content: [
+                        {
+                            type: 'text',
+                            text: `No vaults found for the provided addresses on chain ${input.chainId}`,
+                        },
+                    ],
+                    isError: true,
+                };
+            }
+            // Transform combined data into optimization output
+            const combinedData = {
+                vaults,
+                priceHistoryByVault,
+                performanceByVault,
+            };
+            const output = transformOptimizationData(input, combinedData);
+            // Cache the result
+            container.cache.set(cacheKey, output.markdown, cacheTTL.portfolioOptimization);
+            // Register cache tags for invalidation
+            container.cacheInvalidator.register(cacheKey, [CacheTag.PORTFOLIO, CacheTag.ANALYTICS]);
+            return {
+                content: [
+                    { type: 'text', text: output.markdown + getToolDisclaimer('optimize_portfolio') },
+                ],
+                isError: false,
+            };
+        }
+        catch (error) {
+            const errorMessage = error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'Unknown error during portfolio optimization';
+            return {
+                content: [{ type: 'text', text: `Error: ${errorMessage}` }],
+                isError: true,
+            };
+        }
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=optimize-portfolio.js.map

package/dist/tools/optimize-portfolio.js.map

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package/dist/tools/predict-yield.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+/**
+ * predict_yield Tool
+ *
+ * ML-based yield forecasting for vault APR prediction.
+ * Analyzes historical performance to predict future returns.
+ *
+ * Use cases:
+ * - Investment planning and return projections
+ * - Yield farming strategy optimization
+ * - Risk-adjusted return forecasting
+ * - Performance trend analysis
+ * - Performance: ~400-600 tokens per prediction
+ *
+ * Cache strategy:
+ * - 60-minute TTL (predictions valid for moderate duration)
+ * - Cache key: yield_prediction:{chainId}:{vaultAddress}:{timeRange}
+ * - Cache hit rate target: 75-85%
+ * - Cache tags: [CacheTag.VAULT, CacheTag.APR, CacheTag.ANALYTICS] for invalidation
+ */
+import { CallToolResult } from '@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/types.js';
+import { PredictYieldInput } from '../utils/validators.js';
+import { ServiceContainer } from '../core/container.js';
+/**
+ * Create the executePredictYield function with DI container
+ *
+ * @param container - Service container with dependencies
+ * @returns Configured tool executor function
+ */
+export declare function createExecutePredictYield(container: ServiceContainer): (input: PredictYieldInput) => Promise<CallToolResult>;
+//# sourceMappingURL=predict-yield.d.ts.map

package/dist/tools/predict-yield.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"predict-yield.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/tools/predict-yield.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAkBG;AAEH,OAAO,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,oCAAoC,CAAC;AACpE,OAAO,EAAE,iBAAiB,EAAE,MAAM,wBAAwB,CAAC;AAO3D,OAAO,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,sBAAsB,CAAC;AAsQxD;;;;;GAKG;AACH,wBAAgB,yBAAyB,CACvC,SAAS,EAAE,gBAAgB,GAC1B,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,iBAAiB,KAAK,OAAO,CAAC,cAAc,CAAC,CA8DvD"}