@kernel.chat/kbot 3.69.1 → 3.70.0

package/dist/tools/financial-analysis.js

@@ -0,0 +1,945 @@
+// kbot Financial Analysis Pipeline — Multi-agent coordinated market intelligence
+// Inspired by TradingAgents (multi-perspective analysis with specialist roles).
+// Uses free APIs: Yahoo Finance, CoinGecko, DuckDuckGo, Google News RSS.
+// No premium data feeds required — all real-time data via web search + public APIs.
+//
+// Three tools:
+//   1. market_analysis  — Deep multi-perspective analysis of a single ticker/topic
+//   2. portfolio_review — Portfolio-wide risk, allocation, and rebalancing analysis
+//   3. market_briefing  — Quick morning market summary with index moves + news
+import { registerTool } from './index.js';
+// ── Shared Helpers ──
+async function fetchJSON(url, timeout = 12_000) {
+    const res = await fetch(url, {
+        headers: { 'User-Agent': 'KBot/3.61 (Financial Analysis)' },
+        signal: AbortSignal.timeout(timeout),
+    });
+    if (!res.ok)
+        throw new Error(`HTTP ${res.status}: ${res.statusText}`);
+    return res.json();
+}
+async function fetchText(url, timeout = 10_000) {
+    const res = await fetch(url, {
+        headers: { 'User-Agent': 'KBot/3.61 (Financial Analysis)' },
+        signal: AbortSignal.timeout(timeout),
+    });
+    if (!res.ok)
+        throw new Error(`HTTP ${res.status}`);
+    return res.text();
+}
+function fmt(n, decimals = 2) {
+    return n.toLocaleString('en-US', { minimumFractionDigits: decimals, maximumFractionDigits: decimals });
+}
+function pct(n) {
+    return `${n >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${fmt(n)}%`;
+}
+// ── Technical Analysis Primitives ──
+function sma(data, period) {
+    const result = [];
+    for (let i = period - 1; i < data.length; i++) {
+        const slice = data.slice(i - period + 1, i + 1);
+        result.push(slice.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / period);
+    }
+    return result;
+}
+function ema(data, period) {
+    if (!data.length)
+        return [];
+    const k = 2 / (period + 1);
+    const result = [data[0]];
+    for (let i = 1; i < data.length; i++) {
+        result.push(data[i] * k + result[i - 1] * (1 - k));
+    }
+    return result;
+}
+function rsi(closes, period = 14) {
+    const gains = [];
+    const losses = [];
+    for (let i = 1; i < closes.length; i++) {
+        const diff = closes[i] - closes[i - 1];
+        gains.push(diff > 0 ? diff : 0);
+        losses.push(diff < 0 ? -diff : 0);
+    }
+    const result = [];
+    let avgGain = gains.slice(0, period).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / period;
+    let avgLoss = losses.slice(0, period).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / period;
+    for (let i = period; i < gains.length; i++) {
+        avgGain = (avgGain * (period - 1) + gains[i]) / period;
+        avgLoss = (avgLoss * (period - 1) + losses[i]) / period;
+        const rs = avgLoss === 0 ? 100 : avgGain / avgLoss;
+        result.push(100 - 100 / (1 + rs));
+    }
+    return result;
+}
+function standardDeviation(data) {
+    if (data.length < 2)
+        return 0;
+    const mean = data.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / data.length;
+    const variance = data.reduce((sum, v) => sum + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / (data.length - 1);
+    return Math.sqrt(variance);
+}
+function dailyReturns(closes) {
+    const returns = [];
+    for (let i = 1; i < closes.length; i++) {
+        returns.push((closes[i] - closes[i - 1]) / closes[i - 1]);
+    }
+    return returns;
+}
+function annualizedVolatility(closes) {
+    const returns = dailyReturns(closes);
+    if (returns.length < 2)
+        return 0;
+    return standardDeviation(returns) * Math.sqrt(252) * 100; // annualized, as %
+}
+function maxDrawdown(closes) {
+    let peak = closes[0];
+    let maxDd = 0;
+    for (const price of closes) {
+        if (price > peak)
+            peak = price;
+        const dd = (peak - price) / peak;
+        if (dd > maxDd)
+            maxDd = dd;
+    }
+    return maxDd * 100; // as %
+}
+function sharpeProxy(closes, riskFreeRate = 0.05) {
+    const returns = dailyReturns(closes);
+    if (returns.length < 10)
+        return 0;
+    const avgReturn = returns.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / returns.length;
+    const annualReturn = avgReturn * 252;
+    const vol = standardDeviation(returns) * Math.sqrt(252);
+    if (vol === 0)
+        return 0;
+    return (annualReturn - riskFreeRate) / vol;
+}
+// ── Yahoo Finance Helpers ──
+async function yahooQuote(symbol) {
+    try {
+        const url = `https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/${encodeURIComponent(symbol)}?interval=1d&range=5d`;
+        const data = await fetchJSON(url);
+        const result = data.chart?.result?.[0];
+        return result || null;
+    }
+    catch {
+        return null;
+    }
+}
+async function yahooHistory(symbol, range, interval) {
+    try {
+        const url = `https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/${encodeURIComponent(symbol)}?interval=${interval}&range=${range}`;
+        const data = await fetchJSON(url);
+        return data.chart?.result?.[0] || null;
+    }
+    catch {
+        return null;
+    }
+}
+function extractCloses(result) {
+    const quotes = result.indicators?.quote?.[0];
+    if (!quotes?.close)
+        return [];
+    return quotes.close.filter((c) => c != null);
+}
+function extractVolumes(result) {
+    const quotes = result.indicators?.quote?.[0];
+    if (!quotes?.volume)
+        return [];
+    return quotes.volume.filter((v) => v != null);
+}
+// ── News Search Helper ──
+async function searchNews(query, maxResults = 5) {
+    const results = [];
+    // DuckDuckGo instant answers
+    try {
+        const encoded = encodeURIComponent(query);
+        const data = await fetchJSON(`https://api.duckduckgo.com/?q=${encoded}&format=json&no_html=1&skip_disambig=1`, 8_000);
+        if (data.AbstractText) {
+            results.push(String(data.AbstractText).slice(0, 300));
+        }
+        const topics = data.RelatedTopics;
+        if (topics?.length) {
+            for (const topic of topics.slice(0, 3)) {
+                if (topic.Text)
+                    results.push(topic.Text.slice(0, 200));
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    catch { /* continue */ }
+    // Google News RSS feed for financial news
+    try {
+        const encoded = encodeURIComponent(query);
+        const xml = await fetchText(`https://news.google.com/rss/search?q=${encoded}&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en`, 8_000);
+        const titleMatches = xml.match(/<title><!\[CDATA\[(.*?)\]\]><\/title>/g) || [];
+        for (const match of titleMatches.slice(1, maxResults + 1)) { // skip feed title
+            const headline = match.replace(/<title><!\[CDATA\[/, '').replace(/\]\]><\/title>/, '');
+            if (headline)
+                results.push(headline);
+        }
+    }
+    catch { /* continue */ }
+    return results.slice(0, maxResults);
+}
+// ── Reddit Sentiment Helper ──
+async function redditSentiment(query) {
+    const BULLISH = new Set([
+        'bullish', 'moon', 'pump', 'buy', 'long', 'breakout', 'rally', 'surge',
+        'gains', 'undervalued', 'uptrend', 'bounce', 'recovery', 'soaring',
+        'fomo', 'accumulate', 'hodl', 'diamond',
+    ]);
+    const BEARISH = new Set([
+        'bearish', 'crash', 'dump', 'sell', 'short', 'breakdown', 'plunge', 'tank',
+        'overvalued', 'bubble', 'correction', 'decline', 'fear', 'panic',
+        'liquidation', 'scam', 'fraud',
+    ]);
+    let allText = '';
+    let postCount = 0;
+    const subreddits = ['wallstreetbets', 'stocks', 'investing'];
+    for (const sub of subreddits) {
+        try {
+            const data = await fetchJSON(`https://www.reddit.com/r/${sub}/search.json?q=${encodeURIComponent(query)}&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&limit=10&t=week`, 8_000);
+            const posts = data.data?.children || [];
+            for (const post of posts) {
+                const title = post.data?.title || '';
+                const selftext = post.data?.selftext || '';
+                allText += ` ${title} ${selftext}`;
+                postCount++;
+            }
+        }
+        catch { /* continue */ }
+    }
+    const words = allText.toLowerCase().split(/\W+/);
+    let bullish = 0;
+    let bearish = 0;
+    for (const w of words) {
+        if (BULLISH.has(w))
+            bullish++;
+        if (BEARISH.has(w))
+            bearish++;
+    }
+    const total = bullish + bearish;
+    const score = total === 0 ? 0 : (bullish - bearish) / total;
+    const label = score > 0.2 ? 'BULLISH' : score < -0.2 ? 'BEARISH' : 'NEUTRAL';
+    const summary = total === 0
+        ? 'No significant sentiment signals found'
+        : `${bullish} bullish vs ${bearish} bearish signals across ${postCount} posts`;
+    return { score, label, posts: postCount, summary };
+}
+// ── Sector Classification ──
+const SECTOR_MAP = {
+    // Tech
+    AAPL: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US', divYield: 0.5 },
+    MSFT: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US', divYield: 0.7 },
+    GOOGL: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US' },
+    GOOG: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US' },
+    META: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US', divYield: 0.4 },
+    AMZN: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US' },
+    NVDA: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US', divYield: 0.03 },
+    TSM: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'Taiwan', divYield: 1.5 },
+    AVGO: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.3 },
+    AMD: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US' },
+    CRM: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US' },
+    ORCL: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.2 },
+    INTC: { sector: 'Technology', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.5 },
+    // Finance
+    JPM: { sector: 'Finance', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.3 },
+    BAC: { sector: 'Finance', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.5 },
+    WFC: { sector: 'Finance', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.8 },
+    GS: { sector: 'Finance', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.5 },
+    V: { sector: 'Finance', geography: 'US', divYield: 0.7 },
+    MA: { sector: 'Finance', geography: 'US', divYield: 0.5 },
+    BLK: { sector: 'Finance', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.2 },
+    // Healthcare
+    UNH: { sector: 'Healthcare', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.4 },
+    JNJ: { sector: 'Healthcare', geography: 'US', divYield: 3.0 },
+    LLY: { sector: 'Healthcare', geography: 'US', divYield: 0.7 },
+    PFE: { sector: 'Healthcare', geography: 'US', divYield: 5.5 },
+    ABBV: { sector: 'Healthcare', geography: 'US', divYield: 3.5 },
+    MRK: { sector: 'Healthcare', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.5 },
+    // Energy
+    XOM: { sector: 'Energy', geography: 'US', divYield: 3.3 },
+    CVX: { sector: 'Energy', geography: 'US', divYield: 4.0 },
+    COP: { sector: 'Energy', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.8 },
+    // Consumer
+    PG: { sector: 'Consumer Staples', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.4 },
+    KO: { sector: 'Consumer Staples', geography: 'US', divYield: 3.0 },
+    PEP: { sector: 'Consumer Staples', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.7 },
+    MCD: { sector: 'Consumer Staples', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.2 },
+    WMT: { sector: 'Consumer Staples', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.4 },
+    COST: { sector: 'Consumer Staples', geography: 'US', divYield: 0.6 },
+    TSLA: { sector: 'Consumer Discretionary', geography: 'US' },
+    // Industrial
+    BA: { sector: 'Industrials', geography: 'US' },
+    CAT: { sector: 'Industrials', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.6 },
+    LMT: { sector: 'Industrials', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.7 },
+    GE: { sector: 'Industrials', geography: 'US', divYield: 0.6 },
+    // Real Estate / REITs
+    O: { sector: 'Real Estate', geography: 'US', divYield: 5.5 },
+    AMT: { sector: 'Real Estate', geography: 'US', divYield: 3.0 },
+    // Utilities
+    NEE: { sector: 'Utilities', geography: 'US', divYield: 2.8 },
+    DUK: { sector: 'Utilities', geography: 'US', divYield: 3.8 },
+    // Telecom
+    VZ: { sector: 'Telecom', geography: 'US', divYield: 6.5 },
+    T: { sector: 'Telecom', geography: 'US', divYield: 6.0 },
+    // Materials
+    LIN: { sector: 'Materials', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.2 },
+    // ETFs — broad
+    SPY: { sector: 'ETF - US Equity', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.3 },
+    QQQ: { sector: 'ETF - Tech', geography: 'US', divYield: 0.6 },
+    IWM: { sector: 'ETF - Small Cap', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.2 },
+    DIA: { sector: 'ETF - Dow Jones', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.6 },
+    VTI: { sector: 'ETF - Total Market', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.3 },
+    VOO: { sector: 'ETF - S&P 500', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.3 },
+    VEA: { sector: 'ETF - Intl Developed', geography: 'International', divYield: 3.1 },
+    VWO: { sector: 'ETF - Emerging Markets', geography: 'Emerging Markets', divYield: 3.4 },
+    BND: { sector: 'ETF - Bonds', geography: 'US', divYield: 3.5 },
+    AGG: { sector: 'ETF - Bonds', geography: 'US', divYield: 3.4 },
+    GLD: { sector: 'ETF - Gold', geography: 'Global' },
+    TLT: { sector: 'ETF - Long Treasuries', geography: 'US', divYield: 3.8 },
+    ARKK: { sector: 'ETF - Innovation', geography: 'US' },
+    XLE: { sector: 'ETF - Energy', geography: 'US', divYield: 3.5 },
+    XLF: { sector: 'ETF - Financials', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.7 },
+    XLK: { sector: 'ETF - Technology', geography: 'US', divYield: 0.7 },
+    XLV: { sector: 'ETF - Healthcare', geography: 'US', divYield: 1.5 },
+    SCHD: { sector: 'ETF - Dividend Growth', geography: 'US', divYield: 3.5 },
+};
+function lookupSector(ticker) {
+    const info = SECTOR_MAP[ticker.toUpperCase()];
+    if (info)
+        return { sector: info.sector, geography: info.geography, divYield: info.divYield ?? 0 };
+    // Fallback heuristic
+    if (ticker.startsWith('^'))
+        return { sector: 'Index', geography: 'US', divYield: 0 };
+    return { sector: 'Unknown', geography: 'Unknown', divYield: 0 };
+}
+// ── MAGI (Modified Adjusted Gross Income) Estimator ──
+// Important for ACA (Affordable Care Act) subsidy calculations.
+// MAGI includes: wages, interest, dividends, capital gains, rental income, etc.
+function estimateMAGIImpact(holdings) {
+    let totalDividends = 0;
+    const notes = [];
+    for (const h of holdings) {
+        const info = lookupSector(h.ticker);
+        const divIncome = h.totalValue * (info.divYield / 100);
+        totalDividends += divIncome;
+        if (info.divYield > 3) {
+            notes.push(`${h.ticker}: High dividend yield (${fmt(info.divYield)}%) adds ~$${fmt(divIncome, 0)} to MAGI`);
+        }
+    }
+    if (totalDividends > 0) {
+        notes.push(`Total estimated dividend income: $${fmt(totalDividends, 0)}/year`);
+        notes.push('Note: Qualified dividends are taxed at capital gains rates, but ALL dividends count toward MAGI');
+        notes.push('ACA subsidy cliff: MAGI > 400% FPL eliminates premium tax credits');
+    }
+    return { estimatedDividends: totalDividends, notes };
+}
+// ════════════════════════════════════════
+// TOOL 1: market_analysis
+// ════════════════════════════════════════
+async function runMarketAnalysis(ticker) {
+    const symbol = ticker.toUpperCase();
+    const lines = [`# Market Analysis: ${symbol}`, '', `*Generated ${new Date().toISOString().split('T')[0]} by kbot Financial Analysis Pipeline*`, ''];
+    // ── Agent 1: Fundamentals ──
+    lines.push('## 1. Fundamentals');
+    const quoteData = await yahooQuote(symbol);
+    if (quoteData) {
+        const meta = quoteData.meta || {};
+        const price = meta.regularMarketPrice ?? 0;
+        const prevClose = meta.chartPreviousClose ?? meta.previousClose ?? price;
+        const change = price - prevClose;
+        const changePct = prevClose ? (change / prevClose) * 100 : 0;
+        lines.push(`- **Price**: $${fmt(price)}`, `- **Change**: ${pct(changePct)} ($${fmt(Math.abs(change))})`, `- **Exchange**: ${meta.exchangeName || 'N/A'}`, `- **Currency**: ${meta.currency || 'USD'}`);
+        const sectorInfo = lookupSector(symbol);
+        if (sectorInfo.sector !== 'Unknown') {
+            lines.push(`- **Sector**: ${sectorInfo.sector}`);
+            if (sectorInfo.divYield > 0)
+                lines.push(`- **Est. Dividend Yield**: ${fmt(sectorInfo.divYield)}%`);
+        }
+    }
+    else {
+        lines.push('*Could not fetch fundamental data. Ticker may be invalid or API unavailable.*');
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Agent 2: Technical Analysis ──
+    lines.push('## 2. Technical Analysis');
+    const histData = await yahooHistory(symbol, '6mo', '1d');
+    const closes = histData ? extractCloses(histData) : [];
+    const volumes = histData ? extractVolumes(histData) : [];
+    if (closes.length >= 30) {
+        const current = closes[closes.length - 1];
+        // Moving averages
+        const sma20vals = sma(closes, 20);
+        const sma50vals = sma(closes, Math.min(50, Math.floor(closes.length * 0.8)));
+        const currentSma20 = sma20vals[sma20vals.length - 1];
+        const currentSma50 = sma50vals[sma50vals.length - 1];
+        // RSI
+        const rsiVals = rsi(closes, 14);
+        const currentRsi = rsiVals.length > 0 ? rsiVals[rsiVals.length - 1] : 50;
+        const rsiSignal = currentRsi > 70 ? 'OVERBOUGHT' : currentRsi < 30 ? 'OVERSOLD' : 'NEUTRAL';
+        // MACD
+        const ema12vals = ema(closes, 12);
+        const ema26vals = ema(closes, 26);
+        const macdLine = ema12vals[ema12vals.length - 1] - ema26vals[ema26vals.length - 1];
+        const macdSignal = macdLine > 0 ? 'BULLISH' : 'BEARISH';
+        // Trend
+        const trend = current > currentSma20 && currentSma20 > currentSma50 ? 'UPTREND'
+            : current < currentSma20 && currentSma20 < currentSma50 ? 'DOWNTREND'
+                : 'SIDEWAYS';
+        // Volatility
+        const vol = annualizedVolatility(closes);
+        const mdd = maxDrawdown(closes);
+        const sharpe = sharpeProxy(closes);
+        // Volume trend
+        const recentVol = volumes.slice(-5);
+        const olderVol = volumes.slice(-20, -5);
+        const avgRecent = recentVol.length ? recentVol.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / recentVol.length : 0;
+        const avgOlder = olderVol.length ? olderVol.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / olderVol.length : 0;
+        const volTrend = avgOlder > 0 ? ((avgRecent - avgOlder) / avgOlder * 100) : 0;
+        lines.push(`| Indicator | Value | Signal |`, `|-----------|-------|--------|`, `| Trend | — | **${trend}** |`, `| RSI (14) | ${fmt(currentRsi)} | ${rsiSignal} |`, `| SMA (20) | $${fmt(currentSma20)} | Price ${current > currentSma20 ? 'above' : 'below'} |`, `| SMA (50) | $${fmt(currentSma50)} | Price ${current > currentSma50 ? 'above' : 'below'} |`, `| MACD | ${fmt(macdLine, 4)} | ${macdSignal} |`, `| Volatility (ann.) | ${fmt(vol)}% | ${vol > 40 ? 'HIGH' : vol > 20 ? 'MODERATE' : 'LOW'} |`, `| Max Drawdown (6mo) | ${fmt(mdd)}% | ${mdd > 20 ? 'SEVERE' : mdd > 10 ? 'NOTABLE' : 'MILD'} |`, `| Sharpe Ratio (est.) | ${fmt(sharpe)} | ${sharpe > 1 ? 'GOOD' : sharpe > 0 ? 'FAIR' : 'POOR'} |`, `| Volume Trend (5d vs 20d) | ${pct(volTrend)} | ${volTrend > 20 ? 'RISING' : volTrend < -20 ? 'FALLING' : 'STABLE'} |`);
+        // Signal tally
+        let bullish = 0;
+        let bearish = 0;
+        if (currentRsi < 30)
+            bullish++;
+        if (currentRsi > 70)
+            bearish++;
+        if (current > currentSma20)
+            bullish++;
+        else
+            bearish++;
+        if (current > currentSma50)
+            bullish++;
+        else
+            bearish++;
+        if (macdLine > 0)
+            bullish++;
+        else
+            bearish++;
+        if (trend === 'UPTREND')
+            bullish++;
+        if (trend === 'DOWNTREND')
+            bearish++;
+        lines.push('', `**Technical Signal**: ${bullish > bearish ? 'BULLISH' : bearish > bullish ? 'BEARISH' : 'NEUTRAL'} (${bullish} bull / ${bearish} bear)`);
+    }
+    else {
+        lines.push('*Insufficient price history for technical analysis (need >= 30 data points).*');
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Agent 3: Sentiment ──
+    lines.push('## 3. Social Sentiment');
+    const sentiment = await redditSentiment(symbol);
+    lines.push(`- **Reddit Signal**: **${sentiment.label}** (score: ${fmt(sentiment.score)})`, `- **Posts Scanned**: ${sentiment.posts}`, `- **Summary**: ${sentiment.summary}`);
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Agent 4: News ──
+    lines.push('## 4. Recent News');
+    const newsItems = await searchNews(`${symbol} stock market news`, 6);
+    if (newsItems.length > 0) {
+        for (const item of newsItems) {
+            lines.push(`- ${item}`);
+        }
+    }
+    else {
+        lines.push('*No recent news found via free sources.*');
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Agent 5: Risk Assessment ──
+    lines.push('## 5. Risk Assessment');
+    if (closes.length >= 20) {
+        const vol = annualizedVolatility(closes);
+        const mdd = maxDrawdown(closes);
+        const beta = vol / 16; // rough approximation (S&P ~16% vol)
+        // Risk score 1-10 based on volatility + drawdown
+        const volScore = Math.min(5, vol / 10); // 0-5 from vol
+        const ddScore = Math.min(5, mdd / 10); // 0-5 from drawdown
+        const riskScore = Math.min(10, Math.round(volScore + ddScore));
+        lines.push(`| Risk Factor | Value | Rating |`, `|-------------|-------|--------|`, `| Annualized Volatility | ${fmt(vol)}% | ${vol > 40 ? 'HIGH' : vol > 20 ? 'MODERATE' : 'LOW'} |`, `| Max Drawdown (6mo) | ${fmt(mdd)}% | ${mdd > 20 ? 'HIGH' : mdd > 10 ? 'MODERATE' : 'LOW'} |`, `| Beta (est.) | ${fmt(beta)} | ${beta > 1.5 ? 'HIGH' : beta > 0.8 ? 'MARKET' : 'LOW'} |`, '', `**Overall Risk Score**: ${riskScore}/10 (${riskScore >= 7 ? 'High Risk' : riskScore >= 4 ? 'Moderate Risk' : 'Low Risk'})`);
+    }
+    else {
+        lines.push('*Insufficient data for risk assessment.*');
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Agent 6: Synthesis — Bull/Bear Case + Confidence ──
+    lines.push('## 6. Synthesis');
+    // Compute confidence from signal agreement
+    let bullSignals = 0;
+    let bearSignals = 0;
+    let totalSignals = 0;
+    // Technical signals
+    if (closes.length >= 30) {
+        const current = closes[closes.length - 1];
+        const sma20v = sma(closes, 20);
+        const sma50v = sma(closes, Math.min(50, Math.floor(closes.length * 0.8)));
+        if (current > sma20v[sma20v.length - 1])
+            bullSignals++;
+        else
+            bearSignals++;
+        if (current > sma50v[sma50v.length - 1])
+            bullSignals++;
+        else
+            bearSignals++;
+        totalSignals += 2;
+        const rsiV = rsi(closes, 14);
+        const lastRsi = rsiV[rsiV.length - 1] ?? 50;
+        if (lastRsi < 40)
+            bullSignals++;
+        if (lastRsi > 60)
+            bearSignals++;
+        totalSignals++;
+        const ema12v = ema(closes, 12);
+        const ema26v = ema(closes, 26);
+        if (ema12v[ema12v.length - 1] > ema26v[ema26v.length - 1])
+            bullSignals++;
+        else
+            bearSignals++;
+        totalSignals++;
+    }
+    // Sentiment signal
+    if (sentiment.score > 0.15)
+        bullSignals++;
+    if (sentiment.score < -0.15)
+        bearSignals++;
+    totalSignals++;
+    const dominant = bullSignals > bearSignals ? 'BULLISH' : bearSignals > bullSignals ? 'BEARISH' : 'NEUTRAL';
+    const agreement = totalSignals > 0 ? Math.max(bullSignals, bearSignals) / totalSignals : 0;
+    const confidence = Math.round(agreement * 100);
+    lines.push(`**Overall Signal**: **${dominant}** (${confidence}% confidence)`, '');
+    // Bull case
+    const bullPoints = [];
+    if (closes.length >= 30) {
+        const current = closes[closes.length - 1];
+        const sma20v = sma(closes, 20);
+        if (current > sma20v[sma20v.length - 1])
+            bullPoints.push('Trading above 20-day SMA');
+        const rsiV = rsi(closes, 14);
+        const lastRsi = rsiV[rsiV.length - 1] ?? 50;
+        if (lastRsi < 40)
+            bullPoints.push('RSI in oversold territory — potential bounce');
+        if (annualizedVolatility(closes) < 25)
+            bullPoints.push('Low volatility suggests stability');
+    }
+    if (sentiment.label === 'BULLISH')
+        bullPoints.push('Positive social sentiment on Reddit');
+    if (bullPoints.length === 0)
+        bullPoints.push('Limited bullish signals at this time');
+    lines.push('### Bull Case');
+    for (const p of bullPoints)
+        lines.push(`- ${p}`);
+    lines.push('');
+    // Bear case
+    const bearPoints = [];
+    if (closes.length >= 30) {
+        const current = closes[closes.length - 1];
+        const sma50v = sma(closes, Math.min(50, Math.floor(closes.length * 0.8)));
+        if (current < sma50v[sma50v.length - 1])
+            bearPoints.push('Trading below 50-day SMA');
+        const rsiV = rsi(closes, 14);
+        const lastRsi = rsiV[rsiV.length - 1] ?? 50;
+        if (lastRsi > 60)
+            bearPoints.push('RSI trending toward overbought');
+        if (maxDrawdown(closes) > 15)
+            bearPoints.push(`Recent drawdown of ${fmt(maxDrawdown(closes))}%`);
+        if (annualizedVolatility(closes) > 35)
+            bearPoints.push('Elevated volatility increases downside risk');
+    }
+    if (sentiment.label === 'BEARISH')
+        bearPoints.push('Negative social sentiment on Reddit');
+    if (bearPoints.length === 0)
+        bearPoints.push('Limited bearish signals at this time');
+    lines.push('### Bear Case');
+    for (const p of bearPoints)
+        lines.push(`- ${p}`);
+    lines.push('');
+    lines.push('---', '*This analysis aggregates 5 specialist perspectives (fundamentals, technical, sentiment, news, risk) into a unified view. Not financial advice.*');
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+async function runPortfolioReview(holdings, totalValue) {
+    const portfolioValue = totalValue || 100_000; // default to $100K for calculations
+    const lines = [
+        '# Portfolio Review',
+        '',
+        `*Generated ${new Date().toISOString().split('T')[0]} by kbot Financial Analysis Pipeline*`,
+        `*Portfolio Value: $${fmt(portfolioValue, 0)}*`,
+        '',
+    ];
+    // Normalize weights
+    const totalWeight = holdings.reduce((s, h) => s + h.weight, 0);
+    const normalized = holdings.map(h => ({
+        ...h,
+        weight: (h.weight / totalWeight) * 100,
+        targetWeight: h.targetWeight != null ? h.targetWeight : undefined,
+        value: (h.weight / totalWeight) * portfolioValue,
+    }));
+    // ── Section 1: Holdings Overview ──
+    lines.push('## 1. Holdings Overview');
+    lines.push('', '| Ticker | Weight | Value | Sector | Geography |', '|--------|--------|-------|--------|-----------|');
+    for (const h of normalized.sort((a, b) => b.weight - a.weight)) {
+        const info = lookupSector(h.ticker);
+        lines.push(`| ${h.ticker} | ${fmt(h.weight)}% | $${fmt(h.value, 0)} | ${info.sector} | ${info.geography} |`);
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Section 2: Sector Allocation ──
+    lines.push('## 2. Sector Allocation');
+    const sectorWeights = new Map();
+    const geoWeights = new Map();
+    for (const h of normalized) {
+        const info = lookupSector(h.ticker);
+        sectorWeights.set(info.sector, (sectorWeights.get(info.sector) || 0) + h.weight);
+        geoWeights.set(info.geography, (geoWeights.get(info.geography) || 0) + h.weight);
+    }
+    lines.push('', '### By Sector', '');
+    const sortedSectors = Array.from(sectorWeights.entries()).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
+    for (const [sector, weight] of sortedSectors) {
+        const bar = '█'.repeat(Math.round(weight / 2));
+        lines.push(`- **${sector}**: ${fmt(weight)}% ${bar}`);
+    }
+    lines.push('', '### By Geography', '');
+    const sortedGeo = Array.from(geoWeights.entries()).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
+    for (const [geo, weight] of sortedGeo) {
+        const bar = '█'.repeat(Math.round(weight / 2));
+        lines.push(`- **${geo}**: ${fmt(weight)}% ${bar}`);
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Section 3: Concentration Risk ──
+    lines.push('## 3. Concentration Risk');
+    const sortedByWeight = [...normalized].sort((a, b) => b.weight - a.weight);
+    const top1 = sortedByWeight[0]?.weight ?? 0;
+    const top3 = sortedByWeight.slice(0, 3).reduce((s, h) => s + h.weight, 0);
+    const top5 = sortedByWeight.slice(0, 5).reduce((s, h) => s + h.weight, 0);
+    // Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
+    const hhi = normalized.reduce((sum, h) => sum + (h.weight / 100) ** 2, 0);
+    const effectivePositions = hhi > 0 ? 1 / hhi : normalized.length;
+    // Concentration score: 1 (diversified) to 10 (concentrated)
+    const concScore = Math.min(10, Math.round(hhi * 100));
+    lines.push(`| Metric | Value |`, `|--------|-------|`, `| Top 1 holding | ${sortedByWeight[0]?.ticker ?? '?'} at ${fmt(top1)}% |`, `| Top 3 holdings | ${fmt(top3)}% of portfolio |`, `| Top 5 holdings | ${fmt(top5)}% of portfolio |`, `| HHI (Herfindahl) | ${fmt(hhi, 4)} |`, `| Effective # of positions | ${fmt(effectivePositions, 1)} |`, `| **Concentration Score** | **${concScore}/10** (${concScore >= 7 ? 'High' : concScore >= 4 ? 'Moderate' : 'Low'}) |`);
+    lines.push('');
+    if (top1 > 25)
+        lines.push(`> **Warning**: ${sortedByWeight[0]?.ticker} at ${fmt(top1)}% exceeds 25% single-position limit.`, '');
+    if (sortedSectors.length > 0 && sortedSectors[0][1] > 50) {
+        lines.push(`> **Warning**: ${sortedSectors[0][0]} sector at ${fmt(sortedSectors[0][1])}% — consider diversification.`, '');
+    }
+    // ── Section 4: Dividend & Income Estimate ──
+    lines.push('## 4. Estimated Dividend Income');
+    const holdingsForMagi = normalized.map(h => ({
+        ticker: h.ticker,
+        weight: h.weight,
+        totalValue: h.value,
+    }));
+    let totalDivYield = 0;
+    lines.push('', '| Ticker | Weight | Est. Yield | Annual Income |', '|--------|--------|-----------|---------------|');
+    for (const h of normalized.sort((a, b) => b.weight - a.weight)) {
+        const info = lookupSector(h.ticker);
+        const income = h.value * (info.divYield / 100);
+        totalDivYield += info.divYield * (h.weight / 100);
+        if (info.divYield > 0) {
+            lines.push(`| ${h.ticker} | ${fmt(h.weight)}% | ${fmt(info.divYield)}% | $${fmt(income, 0)} |`);
+        }
+    }
+    const totalDivIncome = normalized.reduce((sum, h) => {
+        const info = lookupSector(h.ticker);
+        return sum + h.value * (info.divYield / 100);
+    }, 0);
+    lines.push('', `**Portfolio Dividend Yield**: ${fmt(totalDivYield)}%`, `**Estimated Annual Income**: $${fmt(totalDivIncome, 0)}`, `**Estimated Monthly Income**: $${fmt(totalDivIncome / 12, 0)}`);
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Section 5: MAGI Impact ──
+    lines.push('## 5. MAGI Impact Estimate (ACA-Aware)');
+    const magi = estimateMAGIImpact(holdingsForMagi);
+    if (magi.notes.length > 0) {
+        for (const note of magi.notes) {
+            lines.push(`- ${note}`);
+        }
+        lines.push('', '> **ACA Consideration**: Dividend income adds directly to MAGI. For ACA subsidy', '> optimization, consider holding high-dividend assets in tax-advantaged accounts', '> (IRA, 401k) and using growth stocks in taxable accounts.');
+    }
+    else {
+        lines.push('*No significant dividend income affecting MAGI.*');
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Section 6: Rebalancing ──
+    lines.push('## 6. Rebalancing Suggestions');
+    const hasTargets = normalized.some(h => h.targetWeight != null);
+    if (hasTargets) {
+        lines.push('', '| Ticker | Current | Target | Drift | Action |', '|--------|---------|--------|-------|--------|');
+        for (const h of normalized) {
+            if (h.targetWeight == null)
+                continue;
+            const drift = h.weight - h.targetWeight;
+            const action = Math.abs(drift) < 1 ? 'OK'
+                : drift > 0 ? `Sell $${fmt(Math.abs(drift / 100) * portfolioValue, 0)}`
+                    : `Buy $${fmt(Math.abs(drift / 100) * portfolioValue, 0)}`;
+            const flag = Math.abs(drift) > 5 ? ' ⚠' : '';
+            lines.push(`| ${h.ticker} | ${fmt(h.weight)}% | ${fmt(h.targetWeight)}% | ${pct(drift)} | ${action}${flag} |`);
+        }
+    }
+    else {
+        lines.push('*No target weights specified. General suggestions:*', '');
+        if (top1 > 30)
+            lines.push(`- **Trim ${sortedByWeight[0]?.ticker}** — ${fmt(top1)}% is heavily concentrated`);
+        if (sortedSectors.length > 0 && sortedSectors[0][1] > 50) {
+            lines.push(`- **Diversify away from ${sortedSectors[0][0]}** — ${fmt(sortedSectors[0][1])}% sector concentration`);
+        }
+        if (normalized.length < 10)
+            lines.push('- **Add positions** — fewer than 10 holdings increases idiosyncratic risk');
+        if (!sortedGeo.some(([geo]) => geo !== 'US' && geo !== 'Unknown')) {
+            lines.push('- **Add international exposure** — 100% US concentration adds geographic risk (consider VEA, VWO)');
+        }
+        const bondWeight = sortedSectors.find(([s]) => s.includes('Bond'))?.[1] ?? 0;
+        if (bondWeight === 0) {
+            lines.push('- **Consider bonds** — 0% fixed income allocation (BND, AGG, TLT for diversification)');
+        }
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Section 7: Overall Risk Score ──
+    lines.push('## 7. Overall Portfolio Risk Score');
+    // Composite risk: concentration + sector risk + no bonds penalty + no intl penalty
+    let riskScore = concScore * 0.4; // 40% from concentration
+    if (sortedSectors.length > 0 && sortedSectors[0][1] > 50)
+        riskScore += 2;
+    if (!sortedGeo.some(([geo]) => geo !== 'US' && geo !== 'Unknown'))
+        riskScore += 1;
+    const bondAlloc = sortedSectors.find(([s]) => s.includes('Bond'))?.[1] ?? 0;
+    if (bondAlloc === 0)
+        riskScore += 1;
+    if (normalized.length < 5)
+        riskScore += 2;
+    riskScore = Math.min(10, Math.max(1, Math.round(riskScore)));
+    const riskLabel = riskScore >= 8 ? 'High Risk — significant concentration/diversification issues'
+        : riskScore >= 5 ? 'Moderate Risk — some diversification improvements recommended'
+            : 'Low Risk — well-diversified portfolio';
+    lines.push(`**Risk Score**: ${riskScore}/10 — ${riskLabel}`, '');
+    lines.push('---', '*Portfolio analysis uses reference data for sector classification and dividend yields. Actual yields vary. Not financial advice.*');
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+// ════════════════════════════════════════
+// TOOL 3: market_briefing
+// ════════════════════════════════════════
+async function runMarketBriefing() {
+    const today = new Date().toISOString().split('T')[0];
+    const lines = [
+        `# Market Briefing — ${today}`,
+        '',
+        '*Generated by kbot Financial Analysis Pipeline*',
+        '',
+    ];
+    // ── Major Indices ──
+    lines.push('## Major Indices');
+    const indices = [
+        { symbol: '^GSPC', name: 'S&P 500' },
+        { symbol: '^IXIC', name: 'NASDAQ Composite' },
+        { symbol: '^DJI', name: 'Dow Jones' },
+        { symbol: '^RUT', name: 'Russell 2000' },
+        { symbol: '^VIX', name: 'VIX (Fear Index)' },
+    ];
+    lines.push('', '| Index | Price | Change | Signal |', '|-------|-------|--------|--------|');
+    for (const idx of indices) {
+        try {
+            const data = await yahooQuote(idx.symbol);
+            if (data) {
+                const meta = data.meta || {};
+                const price = meta.regularMarketPrice ?? 0;
+                const prev = meta.chartPreviousClose ?? meta.previousClose ?? price;
+                const change = price - prev;
+                const changePct = prev ? (change / prev) * 100 : 0;
+                const signal = idx.symbol === '^VIX'
+                    ? (price > 30 ? 'FEAR' : price > 20 ? 'CAUTION' : 'CALM')
+                    : (changePct > 0.5 ? 'BULLISH' : changePct < -0.5 ? 'BEARISH' : 'FLAT');
+                lines.push(`| ${idx.name} | ${fmt(price, 0)} | ${pct(changePct)} | ${signal} |`);
+            }
+        }
+        catch {
+            lines.push(`| ${idx.name} | — | — | DATA N/A |`);
+        }
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Notable Movers ──
+    lines.push('## Notable Movers');
+    // Check a basket of popular stocks for big movers
+    const watchlist = [
+        'AAPL', 'MSFT', 'GOOGL', 'AMZN', 'NVDA', 'META', 'TSLA',
+        'JPM', 'V', 'UNH', 'XOM', 'LLY', 'AVGO', 'AMD', 'CRM',
+        'COIN', 'MSTR', 'PLTR', 'RIVN', 'SMCI',
+    ];
+    const movers = [];
+    const batchSize = 5;
+    for (let i = 0; i < watchlist.length; i += batchSize) {
+        const batch = watchlist.slice(i, i + batchSize);
+        const results = await Promise.all(batch.map(async (sym) => {
+            try {
+                const data = await yahooQuote(sym);
+                if (!data)
+                    return null;
+                const meta = data.meta || {};
+                const price = meta.regularMarketPrice ?? 0;
+                const prev = meta.chartPreviousClose ?? meta.previousClose ?? price;
+                const changePct = prev ? ((price - prev) / prev) * 100 : 0;
+                return { symbol: sym, price, changePct };
+            }
+            catch {
+                return null;
+            }
+        }));
+        movers.push(...results.filter((r) => r !== null));
+    }
+    // Sort by absolute change to find notable movers
+    const sorted = movers.sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.changePct) - Math.abs(a.changePct));
+    const notable = sorted.filter(m => Math.abs(m.changePct) > 1).slice(0, 8);
+    if (notable.length > 0) {
+        lines.push('', '| Stock | Price | Change | Direction |', '|-------|-------|--------|-----------|');
+        for (const m of notable) {
+            lines.push(`| ${m.symbol} | $${fmt(m.price)} | ${pct(m.changePct)} | ${m.changePct > 0 ? 'UP' : 'DOWN'} |`);
+        }
+    }
+    else {
+        lines.push('*No stocks moved more than 1% today in the watchlist.*');
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Crypto Snapshot ──
+    lines.push('## Crypto Snapshot');
+    try {
+        const cryptoData = await fetchJSON('https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price?ids=bitcoin,ethereum,solana&vs_currencies=usd&include_24hr_change=true', 10_000);
+        lines.push('', '| Coin | Price | 24h Change |', '|------|-------|------------|');
+        const cryptoMap = { bitcoin: 'BTC', ethereum: 'ETH', solana: 'SOL' };
+        for (const [id, data] of Object.entries(cryptoData)) {
+            const change = data.usd_24h_change ?? 0;
+            lines.push(`| ${cryptoMap[id] || id} | $${fmt(data.usd, data.usd < 10 ? 4 : 0)} | ${pct(change)} |`);
+        }
+    }
+    catch {
+        lines.push('*Crypto data unavailable.*');
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Market News ──
+    lines.push('## Market News');
+    const newsItems = await searchNews('stock market economy today', 6);
+    if (newsItems.length > 0) {
+        for (const item of newsItems) {
+            lines.push(`- ${item}`);
+        }
+    }
+    else {
+        lines.push('*No market news available via free sources.*');
+    }
+    lines.push('');
+    // ── Market Mood ──
+    lines.push('## Market Mood');
+    // Derive mood from VIX + index performance
+    const sp500 = movers.find(m => false); // indices are separate
+    let mood = 'NEUTRAL';
+    let moodExplain = 'Mixed signals';
+    // Fetch VIX for mood
+    try {
+        const vixData = await yahooQuote('^VIX');
+        if (vixData) {
+            const vix = vixData.meta?.regularMarketPrice ?? 20;
+            if (vix > 30) {
+                mood = 'FEARFUL';
+                moodExplain = `VIX at ${fmt(vix)} — elevated fear. Historically a contrarian buy signal.`;
+            }
+            else if (vix > 20) {
+                mood = 'CAUTIOUS';
+                moodExplain = `VIX at ${fmt(vix)} — above-average uncertainty.`;
+            }
+            else if (vix < 13) {
+                mood = 'COMPLACENT';
+                moodExplain = `VIX at ${fmt(vix)} — low fear. Be alert for surprises.`;
+            }
+            else {
+                mood = 'CALM';
+                moodExplain = `VIX at ${fmt(vix)} — normal range.`;
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    catch { /* keep default */ }
+    lines.push(`**Mood**: ${mood}`, `**Why**: ${moodExplain}`, '');
+    lines.push('---', `*Data from Yahoo Finance and CoinGecko. Prices may be delayed ~15 min. ${today}*`);
+    return lines.join('\n');
+}
+// ════════════════════════════════════════
+// Registration
+// ════════════════════════════════════════
+export function registerFinancialAnalysisTools() {
+    registerTool({
+        name: 'market_analysis',
+        description: 'Run a coordinated multi-perspective financial analysis on a stock or crypto ticker. Combines 5 specialist perspectives — fundamentals, technical analysis (RSI, SMA, MACD, volatility), social sentiment (Reddit), recent news, and risk assessment — into a unified report with bull/bear case and confidence score. Inspired by TradingAgents multi-agent architecture.',
+        parameters: {
+            ticker: {
+                type: 'string',
+                description: 'Stock ticker (e.g. "AAPL", "NVDA", "SPY") or crypto symbol (will use Yahoo Finance)',
+                required: true,
+            },
+        },
+        tier: 'free',
+        timeout: 60_000, // up to 60s — fetches from multiple sources
+        async execute(args) {
+            const ticker = String(args.ticker).toUpperCase().trim();
+            if (!ticker)
+                return 'Error: ticker is required.';
+            try {
+                return await runMarketAnalysis(ticker);
+            }
+            catch (err) {
+                return `Error running market analysis for ${ticker}: ${err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)}`;
+            }
+        },
+    });
+    registerTool({
+        name: 'portfolio_review',
+        description: 'Analyze a portfolio of holdings for risk, diversification, income, and rebalancing opportunities. Provides sector/geography breakdown, concentration risk (HHI), dividend yield estimate, MAGI impact for ACA-conscious investors, rebalancing suggestions, and an overall risk score (1-10). Pass holdings as a JSON array of {ticker, weight} objects.',
+        parameters: {
+            holdings: {
+                type: 'string',
+                description: 'JSON array of holdings, e.g. [{"ticker":"AAPL","weight":30},{"ticker":"MSFT","weight":20},{"ticker":"VOO","weight":50}]. Weight can be percentage or dollar amount — it will be normalized.',
+                required: true,
+            },
+            total_value: {
+                type: 'number',
+                description: 'Total portfolio value in USD (default: 100000). Used for dollar-amount calculations.',
+                default: 100_000,
+            },
+        },
+        tier: 'free',
+        timeout: 30_000,
+        async execute(args) {
+            let holdings;
+            try {
+                const raw = typeof args.holdings === 'string' ? JSON.parse(args.holdings) : args.holdings;
+                if (!Array.isArray(raw) || raw.length === 0) {
+                    return 'Error: holdings must be a non-empty JSON array of {ticker, weight} objects.';
+                }
+                holdings = raw.map((h) => ({
+                    ticker: String(h.ticker || '').toUpperCase(),
+                    weight: Number(h.weight) || 0,
+                    targetWeight: h.targetWeight != null ? Number(h.targetWeight) : undefined,
+                })).filter(h => h.ticker && h.weight > 0);
+                if (holdings.length === 0)
+                    return 'Error: no valid holdings found. Each needs a ticker and positive weight.';
+            }
+            catch (err) {
+                return `Error parsing holdings JSON: ${err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)}. Expected format: [{"ticker":"AAPL","weight":30}]`;
+            }
+            const totalValue = Number(args.total_value) || 100_000;
+            try {
+                return await runPortfolioReview(holdings, totalValue);
+            }
+            catch (err) {
+                return `Error running portfolio review: ${err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)}`;
+            }
+        },
+    });
+    registerTool({
+        name: 'market_briefing',
+        description: 'Generate a quick morning market briefing. Covers major index performance (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow, Russell 2000, VIX), notable stock movers, crypto snapshot (BTC/ETH/SOL), market news headlines, and overall market mood assessment. No parameters needed — just run it for a daily market overview.',
+        parameters: {},
+        tier: 'free',
+        timeout: 90_000, // fetches many quotes
+        async execute() {
+            try {
+                return await runMarketBriefing();
+            }
+            catch (err) {
+                return `Error generating market briefing: ${err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)}`;
+            }
+        },
+    });
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=financial-analysis.js.map