@jinn-network/client 0.1.8 → 0.1.9-canary.02befda9

package/dist/eval/screen-runner.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/eval/screen.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+import type { PoolTask } from '../solver-types/_swe-rebench-v2-pool.js';
+import { type HeldOutSlateArtifact } from '../solver-types/_swe-rebench-v2-held-out-slate.js';
+/** Stratification / diversity key: the org prefix of an instance_id
+ *  (`tobymao__sqlglot-4661` → `tobymao`). Derivable without an HF fetch. */
+export declare function repoOf(task: PoolTask): string;
+/**
+ * Order candidates round-robin across repos so the first N base-fails span
+ * repos rather than clumping in alphabetically-early ones. Deterministic:
+ * instances sort by instance_id within each repo group; repo groups iterate in
+ * sorted repo order.
+ */
+export declare function stratifyByRepo(pool: PoolTask[]): PoolTask[];
+/** One frozen run's grade outcome. `null` = unscorable (Docker/grader/infra failure). */
+export interface ScreenCandidateRun {
+    passed: boolean | null;
+    /** When `passed === null`, the stage + error that made it unscorable
+     *  (e.g. `resolve: …`, `harness: no patch`, `grade-error: …`) — surfaced so an
+     *  exclusion is never an opaque black box. */
+    unscorableReason?: string;
+}
+/**
+ * The expensive, cacheable per-candidate outcome — gradeability + the base R-run
+ * loop + (if base is 0/R) the prover. Decoupled from the selection decision so a
+ * resumed run replays it from cache without re-spending inference. The decision
+ * (held-out / no-headroom / caps) is always recomputed fresh from this.
+ */
+export interface ScreenMeasurement {
+    gradeable: boolean;
+    basePasses: number;
+    baseRuns: number;
+    baseUnscorable: boolean;
+    baseUnscorableReason?: string;
+    /** Whether the prover was reached (only when base is gradeable + 0/R). */
+    proverRan: boolean;
+    /** Meaningful only when `proverRan`; `null` = prover unscorable. */
+    proverPassed: boolean | null;
+    proverUnscorableReason?: string;
+}
+export interface ScreenDeps {
+    /** Confirm gradeable at the current semantics version (idempotent; cheap/cached). */
+    ensureGradeable(task: PoolTask): Promise<boolean>;
+    /** Base Haiku, frozen, empty impl-state. `passed: null` = unscorable. */
+    runBaseFrozen(task: PoolTask): Promise<ScreenCandidateRun>;
+    /** Prover (Codex/GPT-5.5), frozen, empty impl-state. `passed: null` = unscorable. */
+    runProverFrozen(task: PoolTask): Promise<ScreenCandidateRun>;
+    /** Resumability (optional): return a cached measurement for this instance, or
+     *  undefined to measure live. A cache hit replays for free (no inference) and
+     *  does NOT consume the maxCandidates budget. */
+    getCachedMeasurement?(instance_id: string): ScreenMeasurement | undefined;
+    /** Resumability (optional): persist a freshly-measured candidate so a later
+     *  re-run of the same command resumes instead of restarting. */
+    recordMeasurement?(instance_id: string, m: ScreenMeasurement): void;
+    log?: (msg: string) => void;
+}
+export interface ScreenOpts {
+    /** Base runs per candidate (≥3). A candidate is a reliable fail iff 0/R passed. */
+    R: number;
+    /** Exam cap N. */
+    heldOutCount: number;
+    /** Budget: stop after this many candidates reach the base-run stage. */
+    maxCandidates: number;
+    /** Max held-out instances per repo (diversity). */
+    perRepoCap: number;
+}
+export type ScreenReason = 'held-out' | 'not-gradeable' | 'base-passes' | 'base-unscorable' | 'no-headroom' | 'per-repo-cap';
+export interface ScreenedCandidate {
+    instance_id: string;
+    repo: string;
+    gradeable: boolean;
+    baseRuns: number;
+    basePasses: number;
+    proverPassed: boolean | null;
+    heldOut: boolean;
+    reason: ScreenReason;
+    /** For `base-unscorable` / `no-headroom`-via-unscorable: the stage + error
+     *  the run reported, so the exclusion is diagnosable without transcript digs. */
+    unscorableReason?: string;
+}
+export interface ScreenResult {
+    heldOut: {
+        instance_id: string;
+        repo: string;
+        baseRuns: number;
+    }[];
+    screened: ScreenedCandidate[];
+}
+/**
+ * Partition a candidate stream into the held-out exam vs the rest, applying the
+ * three filter layers cheapest-first. `candidates` MUST already be ordered (use
+ * {@link stratifyByRepo}); selection order is the iteration order and is frozen.
+ *
+ * Resumable: if `deps.getCachedMeasurement` is provided, an already-measured
+ * candidate replays from cache (no inference, no budget cost), so re-running the
+ * same command resumes — the `maxCandidates` budget bounds only NEW measurements
+ * per invocation, letting a long screen proceed in budget-sized chunks. The
+ * selection decision (caps, held-out) is always recomputed fresh, so the cached
+ * measurements stay valid even if `heldOutCount`/`perRepoCap` change.
+ */
+export declare function screenBaseFailures(candidates: PoolTask[], deps: ScreenDeps, opts: ScreenOpts): Promise<ScreenResult>;
+/** The on-disk v2 slate file = the hashed artifact + a provenance `comment`
+ *  (the comment is outside the canonical hash). solverType matches the
+ *  `${solverType}.v1` key `jinn eval` loads with. */
+export interface V2SlateFile extends HeldOutSlateArtifact {
+    comment: string;
+    hash: `sha256:${string}`;
+}
+export declare function buildV2SlateFile(instanceIds: string[], generatedAt: string): V2SlateFile;

package/dist/eval/screen.js

@@ -0,0 +1,159 @@
+import { HELD_OUT_SLATE_SCHEMA_VERSION, hashHeldOutSlateArtifact, } from '../solver-types/_swe-rebench-v2-held-out-slate.js';
+/** Stratification / diversity key: the org prefix of an instance_id
+ *  (`tobymao__sqlglot-4661` → `tobymao`). Derivable without an HF fetch. */
+export function repoOf(task) {
+    const idx = task.instance_id.indexOf('__');
+    return idx === -1 ? task.instance_id : task.instance_id.slice(0, idx);
+}
+/**
+ * Order candidates round-robin across repos so the first N base-fails span
+ * repos rather than clumping in alphabetically-early ones. Deterministic:
+ * instances sort by instance_id within each repo group; repo groups iterate in
+ * sorted repo order.
+ */
+export function stratifyByRepo(pool) {
+    const groups = new Map();
+    for (const task of pool) {
+        const repo = repoOf(task);
+        (groups.get(repo) ?? groups.set(repo, []).get(repo)).push(task);
+    }
+    const repos = [...groups.keys()].sort((a, b) => a.localeCompare(b));
+    for (const repo of repos) {
+        groups.get(repo).sort((a, b) => a.instance_id.localeCompare(b.instance_id));
+    }
+    const out = [];
+    let added = true;
+    for (let i = 0; added; i++) {
+        added = false;
+        for (const repo of repos) {
+            const g = groups.get(repo);
+            if (i < g.length) {
+                out.push(g[i]);
+                added = true;
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return out;
+}
+/**
+ * The expensive part: gradeable → base R-runs (early-stop on first pass) →
+ * prover (only if base is 0/R). Pure measurement; no selection/caps. This is what
+ * gets cached for resumability.
+ */
+async function measureCandidate(task, deps, R) {
+    const none = { gradeable: false, basePasses: 0, baseRuns: 0, baseUnscorable: false, proverRan: false, proverPassed: null };
+    if (!(await deps.ensureGradeable(task)))
+        return none;
+    let basePasses = 0;
+    let baseUnscorable = false;
+    let baseUnscorableReason;
+    let r = 0;
+    for (; r < R; r++) {
+        const run = await deps.runBaseFrozen(task);
+        if (run.passed === null) {
+            baseUnscorable = true;
+            baseUnscorableReason = run.unscorableReason;
+            break;
+        }
+        if (run.passed) {
+            basePasses++;
+            break;
+        }
+    }
+    const baseRuns = r + (baseUnscorable || basePasses > 0 ? 1 : 0);
+    if (baseUnscorable) {
+        return { gradeable: true, basePasses: 0, baseRuns, baseUnscorable: true, ...(baseUnscorableReason ? { baseUnscorableReason } : {}), proverRan: false, proverPassed: null };
+    }
+    if (basePasses > 0) {
+        return { gradeable: true, basePasses, baseRuns, baseUnscorable: false, proverRan: false, proverPassed: null };
+    }
+    // Base reliably fails (0/R) → layer 3: prover (existence proof of headroom).
+    const prover = await deps.runProverFrozen(task);
+    return {
+        gradeable: true, basePasses: 0, baseRuns, baseUnscorable: false, proverRan: true, proverPassed: prover.passed,
+        ...(prover.passed === null && prover.unscorableReason ? { proverUnscorableReason: prover.unscorableReason } : {}),
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Partition a candidate stream into the held-out exam vs the rest, applying the
+ * three filter layers cheapest-first. `candidates` MUST already be ordered (use
+ * {@link stratifyByRepo}); selection order is the iteration order and is frozen.
+ *
+ * Resumable: if `deps.getCachedMeasurement` is provided, an already-measured
+ * candidate replays from cache (no inference, no budget cost), so re-running the
+ * same command resumes — the `maxCandidates` budget bounds only NEW measurements
+ * per invocation, letting a long screen proceed in budget-sized chunks. The
+ * selection decision (caps, held-out) is always recomputed fresh, so the cached
+ * measurements stay valid even if `heldOutCount`/`perRepoCap` change.
+ */
+export async function screenBaseFailures(candidates, deps, opts) {
+    const log = deps.log ?? (() => { });
+    const heldOut = [];
+    const screened = [];
+    const perRepo = new Map();
+    let liveMeasured = 0;
+    for (const task of candidates) {
+        if (heldOut.length >= opts.heldOutCount)
+            break;
+        const repo = repoOf(task);
+        const base = { instance_id: task.instance_id, repo, basePasses: 0, proverPassed: null };
+        // Measure (from cache, or live — bounded by the per-invocation budget).
+        let m = deps.getCachedMeasurement?.(task.instance_id);
+        if (!m) {
+            if (liveMeasured >= opts.maxCandidates)
+                break; // budget bounds NEW (inference-spending) measurements
+            m = await measureCandidate(task, deps, opts.R);
+            liveMeasured += 1;
+            deps.recordMeasurement?.(task.instance_id, m);
+        }
+        // Decide from the measurement (always fresh; cap/diversity not cached).
+        if (!m.gradeable) {
+            screened.push({ ...base, baseRuns: 0, gradeable: false, heldOut: false, reason: 'not-gradeable' });
+            continue;
+        }
+        if (m.baseUnscorable) {
+            if (m.baseUnscorableReason)
+                log(`[screen] ${task.instance_id} base-unscorable: ${m.baseUnscorableReason}`);
+            screened.push({ ...base, baseRuns: m.baseRuns, gradeable: true, heldOut: false, reason: 'base-unscorable', ...(m.baseUnscorableReason ? { unscorableReason: m.baseUnscorableReason } : {}) });
+            continue;
+        }
+        if (m.basePasses > 0) {
+            screened.push({ ...base, baseRuns: m.baseRuns, basePasses: m.basePasses, gradeable: true, heldOut: false, reason: 'base-passes' });
+            continue;
+        }
+        // Base 0/R → prover outcome (layer 3).
+        if (m.proverPassed !== true) {
+            if (m.proverPassed === null && m.proverUnscorableReason)
+                log(`[screen] ${task.instance_id} prover-unscorable: ${m.proverUnscorableReason}`);
+            screened.push({
+                ...base, baseRuns: m.baseRuns, gradeable: true, proverPassed: m.proverPassed, heldOut: false, reason: 'no-headroom',
+                ...(m.proverPassed === null && m.proverUnscorableReason ? { unscorableReason: m.proverUnscorableReason } : {}),
+            });
+            continue;
+        }
+        if ((perRepo.get(repo) ?? 0) >= opts.perRepoCap) {
+            screened.push({ ...base, baseRuns: m.baseRuns, gradeable: true, proverPassed: true, heldOut: false, reason: 'per-repo-cap' });
+            continue;
+        }
+        perRepo.set(repo, (perRepo.get(repo) ?? 0) + 1);
+        heldOut.push({ instance_id: task.instance_id, repo, baseRuns: m.baseRuns });
+        screened.push({ ...base, baseRuns: m.baseRuns, gradeable: true, proverPassed: true, heldOut: true, reason: 'held-out' });
+        log(`[screen] held out ${task.instance_id} (${heldOut.length}/${opts.heldOutCount})`);
+    }
+    return { heldOut, screened };
+}
+const V2_SLATE_COMMENT = 'BASELINE-FAILURE REGRESSION BENCHMARK (issue #986). Screened: gradeable at the current ' +
+    'evalSemanticsVersion AND base claude-code/Haiku frozen fails 0/R (R≥3) AND a stronger Codex/GPT-5.5 ' +
+    'prover passes ≥1 (proven headroom). Baseline 0% by construction. Held out from the generator train ' +
+    'stream via the active-slate-version union. Content-addressed; scores comparable WITHIN this version only.';
+export function buildV2SlateFile(instanceIds, generatedAt) {
+    const artifact = {
+        schemaVersion: HELD_OUT_SLATE_SCHEMA_VERSION,
+        solverType: 'swe-rebench-v2.v1',
+        version: 'v2',
+        generatedAt,
+        instanceIds: [...instanceIds].sort((a, b) => a.localeCompare(b)),
+    };
+    return { comment: V2_SLATE_COMMENT, ...artifact, hash: hashHeldOutSlateArtifact(artifact) };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=screen.js.map

package/dist/eval/screen.js.map

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package/dist/eval/slope.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+/**
+ * Ordinary least-squares slope of resolved-rate vs cycle index for the
+ * train-arm slope measurement (issue #822, AC#1).
+ *
+ * The train-arm e2e evaluates a checkpoint against the held-out slate (#817)
+ * at intervals via the eval orchestrator (#818), collecting one
+ * `{ cycleIndex, rate }` point per interval (`rate` = passed / scorable, the
+ * Wilson point estimate). The slope of the least-squares fit is the headline
+ * "is the learner improving across the training sequence" number.
+ *
+ * It is deliberately a thin helper over the closed-form OLS slope
+ * (`cov(x,y) / var(x)`); the per-point confidence intervals come from
+ * `wilson.ts` — this module does NOT reimplement them. The slope sign alone is
+ * never a verdict at small N: a flat or slightly negative slope is "within
+ * noise", which the e2e surfaces via the §4.1 honesty caveat.
+ */
+export interface RatePoint {
+    /** Training cycle index the eval ran at (0 = baseline, before any training). */
+    cycleIndex: number;
+    /** Observed resolved rate at that interval (passed / scorable, in [0, 1]). */
+    rate: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Least-squares slope of `rate` regressed on `cycleIndex`. Returns 0 for fewer
+ * than two points (no line to fit) and for a degenerate fit where every x is
+ * identical (zero variance — division would be NaN). A flat sequence yields
+ * exactly 0.
+ */
+export declare function leastSquaresSlope(points: RatePoint[]): number;

package/dist/eval/slope.js

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+/**
+ * Ordinary least-squares slope of resolved-rate vs cycle index for the
+ * train-arm slope measurement (issue #822, AC#1).
+ *
+ * The train-arm e2e evaluates a checkpoint against the held-out slate (#817)
+ * at intervals via the eval orchestrator (#818), collecting one
+ * `{ cycleIndex, rate }` point per interval (`rate` = passed / scorable, the
+ * Wilson point estimate). The slope of the least-squares fit is the headline
+ * "is the learner improving across the training sequence" number.
+ *
+ * It is deliberately a thin helper over the closed-form OLS slope
+ * (`cov(x,y) / var(x)`); the per-point confidence intervals come from
+ * `wilson.ts` — this module does NOT reimplement them. The slope sign alone is
+ * never a verdict at small N: a flat or slightly negative slope is "within
+ * noise", which the e2e surfaces via the §4.1 honesty caveat.
+ */
+/**
+ * Least-squares slope of `rate` regressed on `cycleIndex`. Returns 0 for fewer
+ * than two points (no line to fit) and for a degenerate fit where every x is
+ * identical (zero variance — division would be NaN). A flat sequence yields
+ * exactly 0.
+ */
+export function leastSquaresSlope(points) {
+    const n = points.length;
+    if (n < 2)
+        return 0;
+    let sumX = 0;
+    let sumY = 0;
+    for (const { cycleIndex, rate } of points) {
+        sumX += cycleIndex;
+        sumY += rate;
+    }
+    const meanX = sumX / n;
+    const meanY = sumY / n;
+    let cov = 0;
+    let varX = 0;
+    for (const { cycleIndex, rate } of points) {
+        const dx = cycleIndex - meanX;
+        cov += dx * (rate - meanY);
+        varX += dx * dx;
+    }
+    if (varX === 0)
+        return 0;
+    return cov / varX;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=slope.js.map

package/dist/eval/slope.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/eval/train-sequence.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+/**
+ * Train-sequence builder with the no-train/test-overlap guard for the
+ * train-arm slope e2e (issue #822, AC#2).
+ *
+ * The learner-full-cycle e2e drives `runCycle` DIRECTLY (it does not post tasks
+ * through the generator), so the generator's `excludeHeldOutSlate` train-stream
+ * chokepoint (#817) is BYPASSED. This builder is therefore the load-bearing
+ * AC#2 mechanism for the e2e: it selects the N distinct training instances from
+ * the pool with the held-out slate excluded, and asserts the resulting
+ * sequence is disjoint from the slate (fail-loud, never a silent drop).
+ *
+ * It reuses `excludeHeldOutSlate` from the #817 primitive rather than
+ * reimplementing the exclusion. Selection is deterministic (instance-id sorted)
+ * so a given pool yields a stable sequence across runs.
+ */
+import type { PoolTask } from '../solver-types/_swe-rebench-v2-pool.js';
+/** Thrown when a chosen training sequence intersects the held-out slate (AC#2). */
+export declare class TrainTestOverlapError extends Error {
+    readonly overlap: string[];
+    constructor(overlap: string[]);
+}
+/** Assert a set of training ids is disjoint from the slate, else throw loud. */
+export declare function assertNoOverlap(trainIds: string[], slateIds: Set<string>): void;
+export declare function buildTrainSequence(args: {
+    pool: PoolTask[];
+    slateIds: Set<string>;
+    /** Number of distinct training tasks (= N training cycles). */
+    count: number;
+    /**
+     * Optional explicit, hand-picked instance_ids (in order). When set, the
+     * builder still runs the no-overlap guard and resolves each id against the
+     * pool — used to fail-loud on a hand-edited sequence that overlaps the slate.
+     */
+    explicitIds?: string[];
+}): PoolTask[];

package/dist/eval/train-sequence.js

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+/**
+ * Train-sequence builder with the no-train/test-overlap guard for the
+ * train-arm slope e2e (issue #822, AC#2).
+ *
+ * The learner-full-cycle e2e drives `runCycle` DIRECTLY (it does not post tasks
+ * through the generator), so the generator's `excludeHeldOutSlate` train-stream
+ * chokepoint (#817) is BYPASSED. This builder is therefore the load-bearing
+ * AC#2 mechanism for the e2e: it selects the N distinct training instances from
+ * the pool with the held-out slate excluded, and asserts the resulting
+ * sequence is disjoint from the slate (fail-loud, never a silent drop).
+ *
+ * It reuses `excludeHeldOutSlate` from the #817 primitive rather than
+ * reimplementing the exclusion. Selection is deterministic (instance-id sorted)
+ * so a given pool yields a stable sequence across runs.
+ */
+import { excludeHeldOutSlate } from '../solver-types/_swe-rebench-v2-held-out-slate.js';
+/** Thrown when a chosen training sequence intersects the held-out slate (AC#2). */
+export class TrainTestOverlapError extends Error {
+    overlap;
+    constructor(overlap) {
+        super(`train/test overlap: training sequence includes held-out slate instance(s) ` +
+            `${overlap.join(', ')} — refusing to train on the eval slate (AC#2). ` +
+            `The slate must stay out-of-sample for the slope to mean anything.`);
+        this.overlap = overlap;
+        this.name = 'TrainTestOverlapError';
+    }
+}
+/** Assert a set of training ids is disjoint from the slate, else throw loud. */
+export function assertNoOverlap(trainIds, slateIds) {
+    const overlap = trainIds.filter((id) => slateIds.has(id));
+    if (overlap.length > 0)
+        throw new TrainTestOverlapError(overlap);
+}
+export function buildTrainSequence(args) {
+    const eligible = excludeHeldOutSlate(args.pool, args.slateIds);
+    const byId = new Map(eligible.map((t) => [t.instance_id, t]));
+    if (args.explicitIds) {
+        // Guard the hand-picked sequence against the slate BEFORE resolving, so a
+        // slate-overlapping id is a TrainTestOverlapError, not a "not eligible".
+        assertNoOverlap(args.explicitIds, args.slateIds);
+        return args.explicitIds.map((id) => {
+            const task = byId.get(id);
+            if (!task) {
+                throw new Error(`explicit training instance ${id} not in the eligible pool`);
+            }
+            return task;
+        });
+    }
+    // Deterministic selection: instance-id sorted, first `count`.
+    const sorted = [...eligible].sort((a, b) => a.instance_id.localeCompare(b.instance_id));
+    if (sorted.length < args.count) {
+        throw new Error(`train sequence needs ${args.count} distinct tasks but only ${sorted.length} eligible ` +
+            `(pool size ${args.pool.length} minus ${args.slateIds.size} held-out slate instance(s))`);
+    }
+    const picked = sorted.slice(0, args.count);
+    assertNoOverlap(picked.map((t) => t.instance_id), args.slateIds);
+    return picked;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=train-sequence.js.map

package/dist/eval/train-sequence.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/eval/wilson.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+/**
+ * Wilson score interval + resolved-rate comparison for the `jinn eval`
+ * held-out checkpoint orchestrator (issue #818, AC#2).
+ *
+ * The Wilson score interval is a binomial proportion confidence interval that
+ * behaves well at the extremes (p=0, p=1) and for small n — unlike the naive
+ * normal-approximation interval. We write it small (no stats dependency, per
+ * repo convention): the formula is ~10 lines.
+ *
+ * Per log/decisions/2026-05-28-rl-eval-measurement.md §4: this is v1-simple.
+ * Only *large* deltas are trustworthy — we encode that as "the child and
+ * parent intervals do not overlap." No seed control, no multi-run averaging.
+ */
+export interface Interval {
+    /** Observed point estimate, passed / scorable (0 when scorable=0). */
+    p: number;
+    /** Lower bound, clamped to [0, 1]. */
+    lo: number;
+    /** Upper bound, clamped to [0, 1]. */
+    hi: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Wilson score interval for `passed` successes out of `scorable` trials.
+ * `scorable === 0` returns a degenerate `{ p: 0, lo: 0, hi: 0 }` (no NaN).
+ */
+export declare function wilsonInterval(passed: number, scorable: number, z?: number): Interval;
+export type RateVerdict = 'trustworthy' | 'within-noise';
+export interface RateComparison {
+    child: Interval;
+    parent: Interval;
+    /** child.p − parent.p (point-estimate difference, can be negative). */
+    delta: number;
+    /**
+     * 'trustworthy' iff the two Wilson intervals do NOT overlap; otherwise
+     * 'within-noise'. v1-simple: only disjoint intervals justify a claim.
+     */
+    verdict: RateVerdict;
+}
+export declare function compareRates(child: {
+    passed: number;
+    scorable: number;
+}, parent: {
+    passed: number;
+    scorable: number;
+}): RateComparison;

package/dist/eval/wilson.js

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+/**
+ * Wilson score interval + resolved-rate comparison for the `jinn eval`
+ * held-out checkpoint orchestrator (issue #818, AC#2).
+ *
+ * The Wilson score interval is a binomial proportion confidence interval that
+ * behaves well at the extremes (p=0, p=1) and for small n — unlike the naive
+ * normal-approximation interval. We write it small (no stats dependency, per
+ * repo convention): the formula is ~10 lines.
+ *
+ * Per log/decisions/2026-05-28-rl-eval-measurement.md §4: this is v1-simple.
+ * Only *large* deltas are trustworthy — we encode that as "the child and
+ * parent intervals do not overlap." No seed control, no multi-run averaging.
+ */
+/** Two-sided z for a 95% interval (1.96 ≈ Φ⁻¹(0.975)). */
+const DEFAULT_Z = 1.96;
+/**
+ * Wilson score interval for `passed` successes out of `scorable` trials.
+ * `scorable === 0` returns a degenerate `{ p: 0, lo: 0, hi: 0 }` (no NaN).
+ */
+export function wilsonInterval(passed, scorable, z = DEFAULT_Z) {
+    if (scorable === 0)
+        return { p: 0, lo: 0, hi: 0 };
+    const n = scorable;
+    const p = passed / n;
+    const z2 = z * z;
+    const denom = 1 + z2 / n;
+    const centre = p + z2 / (2 * n);
+    const margin = z * Math.sqrt((p * (1 - p)) / n + z2 / (4 * n * n));
+    const lo = (centre - margin) / denom;
+    const hi = (centre + margin) / denom;
+    return {
+        p,
+        lo: Math.max(0, lo),
+        hi: Math.min(1, hi),
+    };
+}
+export function compareRates(child, parent) {
+    const c = wilsonInterval(child.passed, child.scorable);
+    const p = wilsonInterval(parent.passed, parent.scorable);
+    const disjoint = c.lo > p.hi || p.lo > c.hi;
+    return {
+        child: c,
+        parent: p,
+        delta: c.p - p.p,
+        verdict: disjoint ? 'trustworthy' : 'within-noise',
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=wilson.js.map

package/dist/eval/wilson.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/events/types.d.ts

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
  * markers) and consumed by /v1/events SSE + /v1/events/recent JSON endpoints
  * served to the operator SPA. See docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-operator-local-app-design.md.
  */
-import { z } from 'zod';
+import { z } from 'zod/v3';
 export declare const StructuredEventKindSchema: z.ZodEnum<["intent", "reward", "fleet", "system", "error", "log"]>;
 export type StructuredEventKind = z.infer<typeof StructuredEventKindSchema>;
 export declare const StructuredEventSchema: z.ZodObject<{

package/dist/events/types.js

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
  * markers) and consumed by /v1/events SSE + /v1/events/recent JSON endpoints
  * served to the operator SPA. See docs/superpowers/specs/2026-05-01-operator-local-app-design.md.
  */
-import { z } from 'zod';
+import { z } from 'zod/v3';
 export const StructuredEventKindSchema = z.enum([
     'intent',
     'reward',

package/dist/events/types.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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