@its-not-rocket-science/ananke 0.1.40 → 0.1.41

package/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -6,6 +6,30 @@ Versioning follows [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/).
 
 ---
 
+## [0.1.41] — 2026-03-26
+
+### Added
+
+- **Phase 96 · Climate Events & Natural Disasters** (`src/climate.ts`)
+  - `ClimateEventType`: `"drought" | "flood" | "harsh_winter" | "earthquake" | "plague_season" | "locust_swarm"`.
+  - `ClimateEvent { eventId, type, severity_Q, durationDays }` — immutable descriptor.
+  - `ActiveClimateEvent { event, remainingDays, elapsedDays }` — mutable progress tracker stored externally by host.
+  - `ClimateEffects { deathPressure_Q, harvestYieldPenalty_Q, epidemicGrowthBonus_Q, infrastructureDamage_Q, unrestPressure_Q, marchPenalty_Q }` — advisory bundle passed to Phases 86–93.
+  - `BASE_EFFECTS: Record<ClimateEventType, ClimateEffects>` — full-severity baselines: locust_swarm has highest harvest penalty (q(0.80)), plague_season highest epidemic growth (q(0.40)), earthquake highest infrastructure damage (q(0.20)), harsh_winter highest march penalty (q(0.40)).
+  - `EVENT_DAILY_PROBABILITY_Q: Record<ClimateEventType, number>` — direct daily integer probabilities out of SCALE.Q=10000: harsh_winter 50, flood 40, drought 30, plague_season 20, locust_swarm 10, earthquake 5.
+  - `EVENT_DURATION_RANGE: Record<ClimateEventType, [number, number]>` — duration ranges in days: drought 60–180, plague_season 30–120, harsh_winter 30–90, flood 7–30, locust_swarm 7–21, earthquake 1–3.
+  - `createClimateEvent(eventId, type, severity_Q, durationDays)` — factory; clamps severity and enforces minimum duration of 1.
+  - `activateClimateEvent(event)` → `ActiveClimateEvent` with `remainingDays = durationDays`, `elapsedDays = 0`.
+  - `computeClimateEffects(active)` → `ClimateEffects`; each field = `round(base × severity / SCALE.Q)`; returns zero bundle when expired.
+  - `stepClimateEvent(active, elapsedDays)` — decrements `remainingDays` (floor 0), increments `elapsedDays`; returns `true` when event expires.
+  - `isClimateEventExpired(active)` → `remainingDays <= 0`.
+  - `generateClimateEvent(polityHash, worldSeed, tick)` → `ClimateEvent | undefined` — deterministic random generation via `eventSeed`; rolls each type independently; severity ∈ [q(0.20), q(0.90)]; duration interpolated within type range.
+  - `aggregateClimateEffects(actives)` → combined `ClimateEffects` — sums per-field across all active events and clamps to SCALE.Q; expired events contribute zero.
+  - Added `./climate` subpath export to `package.json`.
+  - 41 new tests; 5,022 total. Coverage: 100% statements/branches/functions/lines on `climate.ts`.
+
+---
+
 ## [0.1.40] — 2026-03-26
 
 ### Added

package/dist/src/climate.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+import type { Q } from "./units.js";
+/** Classification of climate event. */
+export type ClimateEventType = "drought" | "flood" | "harsh_winter" | "earthquake" | "plague_season" | "locust_swarm";
+/** Immutable descriptor for a climate event. */
+export interface ClimateEvent {
+    eventId: string;
+    type: ClimateEventType;
+    /**
+     * Severity [0, SCALE.Q].  Scales all effect magnitudes.
+     * q(0.30) = minor; q(0.60) = severe; q(0.90) = catastrophic.
+     */
+    severity_Q: Q;
+    /**
+     * Total duration in simulated days.
+     * Remaining days tracked in `ActiveClimateEvent.remainingDays`.
+     */
+    durationDays: number;
+}
+/** Mutable tracking state for an ongoing climate event. */
+export interface ActiveClimateEvent {
+    event: ClimateEvent;
+    remainingDays: number;
+    /** Total days this event has been active on this polity. */
+    elapsedDays: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Advisory effect bundle derived from a climate event.
+ * Pass individual fields into the relevant downstream phase calls.
+ * All fields are [0, SCALE.Q] unless noted.
+ */
+export interface ClimateEffects {
+    /** Extra famine death pressure for Phase-86 `deathPressure_Q`. */
+    deathPressure_Q: Q;
+    /** Harvest yield penalty for Phase-87 `deriveHarvestYieldFactor`. */
+    harvestYieldPenalty_Q: Q;
+    /** Epidemic growth bonus for Phase-88 `stepEpidemic` health capacity. */
+    epidemicGrowthBonus_Q: Q;
+    /**
+     * Infrastructure damage fraction per day for Phase-89.
+     * Hosts subtract `investedCost × damage / SCALE.Q` from project progress.
+     */
+    infrastructureDamage_Q: Q;
+    /** Extra unrest pressure for Phase-90 `computeUnrestLevel`. */
+    unrestPressure_Q: Q;
+    /** March rate penalty for Phase-93 `stepCampaignMarch` road bonus reduction. */
+    marchPenalty_Q: Q;
+}
+/**
+ * Base effect magnitudes at full severity (q(1.0)) for each event type.
+ * Actual effects = base × severity_Q / SCALE.Q.
+ */
+export declare const BASE_EFFECTS: Record<ClimateEventType, ClimateEffects>;
+/**
+ * Typical duration ranges in days [min, max] for each event type.
+ * Used by `generateClimateEvent` to set `durationDays`.
+ */
+export declare const EVENT_DURATION_RANGE: Record<ClimateEventType, [number, number]>;
+/**
+ * Daily probability of each event type triggering [Q].
+ * Roll = `eventSeed(...) % SCALE.Q`; triggers when roll < dailyProb.
+ *
+ * These correspond to rough annual frequencies:
+ *   harsh_winter: q(0.005) ≈ 0.5%/day ≈ ~50% chance within a year
+ *   flood:        q(0.004) ≈ 0.4%/day ≈ ~40% within a year
+ *   drought:      q(0.003) ≈ 0.3%/day
+ *   plague_season:q(0.002) ≈ 0.2%/day
+ *   locust_swarm: q(0.001) ≈ 0.1%/day
+ *   earthquake:   q(0.0005)≈ 0.05%/day (rare)
+ */
+export declare const EVENT_DAILY_PROBABILITY_Q: Record<ClimateEventType, number>;
+/** Create a `ClimateEvent` with explicit parameters. */
+export declare function createClimateEvent(eventId: string, type: ClimateEventType, severity_Q: Q, durationDays: number): ClimateEvent;
+/** Start tracking an active climate event. */
+export declare function activateClimateEvent(event: ClimateEvent): ActiveClimateEvent;
+/**
+ * Compute the `ClimateEffects` bundle for a given event at its current severity.
+ *
+ * Each field = `round(BASE_EFFECTS[type][field] × severity_Q / SCALE.Q)`.
+ * Returns a zero bundle if `active.remainingDays <= 0`.
+ */
+export declare function computeClimateEffects(active: ActiveClimateEvent): ClimateEffects;
+/**
+ * Advance an active climate event by `elapsedDays`.
+ * Decrements `remainingDays` (floor at 0) and increments `elapsedDays`.
+ * Returns `true` if the event has expired this step.
+ */
+export declare function stepClimateEvent(active: ActiveClimateEvent, elapsedDays: number): boolean;
+/** Return true if the event has run its full duration. */
+export declare function isClimateEventExpired(active: ActiveClimateEvent): boolean;
+/**
+ * Attempt to generate a random climate event for a polity on the given tick.
+ *
+ * Each event type is rolled independently.  Returns the first event whose
+ * annual probability roll succeeds, or `undefined` if none trigger.
+ *
+ * Roll: `eventSeed(worldSeed, tick, polityHash, 0, typeSalt) % SCALE.Q`
+ * vs daily probability = `round(annualProb / 365)`.
+ *
+ * @param polityHash  `hashString(polity.id)` from Phase-61.
+ * @param worldSeed   World-level seed.
+ * @param tick        Current simulation tick (day).
+ */
+export declare function generateClimateEvent(polityHash: number, worldSeed: number, tick: number): ClimateEvent | undefined;
+/**
+ * Combine effects from multiple simultaneous active events (e.g. drought + locust).
+ * Each field is summed and clamped to SCALE.Q.
+ */
+export declare function aggregateClimateEffects(actives: ActiveClimateEvent[]): ClimateEffects;

package/dist/src/climate.js

@@ -0,0 +1,240 @@
+// src/climate.ts — Phase 96: Climate Events & Natural Disasters
+//
+// Multi-day climate events affect polity populations, granaries, infrastructure,
+// epidemic spread, and military campaigns.  This is distinct from Phase-51
+// (tactical weather): Phase 96 operates at the polity/campaign timescale —
+// weeks to seasons — rather than the second-to-second combat tick.
+//
+// Design:
+//   - Pure data layer — no Entity fields, no kernel changes.
+//   - `ClimateEvent` is an immutable descriptor; `ActiveClimateEvent` tracks progress.
+//   - `computeClimateEffects` returns an advisory `ClimateEffects` bundle;
+//     callers pass individual fields to Phase-86/87/88/89/90/93 as needed.
+//   - `generateClimateEvent` uses `eventSeed` for deterministic random occurrence.
+//   - Severity and duration determine effect magnitude; effects scale linearly with
+//     severity via mulDiv.
+//
+// Integration:
+//   Phase 86 (Demography):  deathPressure_Q elevated by drought/harsh_winter.
+//   Phase 87 (Granary):     harvestYieldPenalty_Q reduces harvest output.
+//   Phase 88 (Epidemic):    epidemicGrowthBonus_Q accelerates disease spread.
+//   Phase 89 (Infra):       infrastructureDamage_Q models flood/earthquake damage.
+//   Phase 90 (Unrest):      unrestPressure_Q adds to computeUnrestLevel factors.
+//   Phase 93 (Campaign):    marchPenalty_Q reduces daily march progress.
+import { eventSeed } from "./sim/seeds.js";
+import { q, SCALE, clampQ } from "./units.js";
+// ── Constants ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+/**
+ * Base effect magnitudes at full severity (q(1.0)) for each event type.
+ * Actual effects = base × severity_Q / SCALE.Q.
+ */
+export const BASE_EFFECTS = {
+    drought: {
+        deathPressure_Q: q(0.10),
+        harvestYieldPenalty_Q: q(0.60), // major crop loss
+        epidemicGrowthBonus_Q: q(0.10),
+        infrastructureDamage_Q: 0,
+        unrestPressure_Q: q(0.15),
+        marchPenalty_Q: 0,
+    },
+    flood: {
+        deathPressure_Q: q(0.08),
+        harvestYieldPenalty_Q: q(0.40),
+        epidemicGrowthBonus_Q: q(0.20), // waterborne disease
+        infrastructureDamage_Q: q(0.05), // per day
+        unrestPressure_Q: q(0.10),
+        marchPenalty_Q: q(0.30), // mud impedes armies
+    },
+    harsh_winter: {
+        deathPressure_Q: q(0.08),
+        harvestYieldPenalty_Q: q(0.20),
+        epidemicGrowthBonus_Q: q(0.15), // respiratory illness
+        infrastructureDamage_Q: q(0.01),
+        unrestPressure_Q: q(0.08),
+        marchPenalty_Q: q(0.40), // historical winter campaign penalty
+    },
+    earthquake: {
+        deathPressure_Q: q(0.15), // immediate casualties
+        harvestYieldPenalty_Q: q(0.10),
+        epidemicGrowthBonus_Q: q(0.10),
+        infrastructureDamage_Q: q(0.20), // heavy structural damage
+        unrestPressure_Q: q(0.20),
+        marchPenalty_Q: q(0.10),
+    },
+    plague_season: {
+        deathPressure_Q: q(0.20), // epidemic peak
+        harvestYieldPenalty_Q: q(0.15), // insufficient labour
+        epidemicGrowthBonus_Q: q(0.40), // primary driver
+        infrastructureDamage_Q: 0,
+        unrestPressure_Q: q(0.18),
+        marchPenalty_Q: q(0.15), // sick soldiers
+    },
+    locust_swarm: {
+        deathPressure_Q: q(0.05),
+        harvestYieldPenalty_Q: q(0.80), // near-total crop destruction
+        epidemicGrowthBonus_Q: 0,
+        infrastructureDamage_Q: 0,
+        unrestPressure_Q: q(0.20),
+        marchPenalty_Q: 0,
+    },
+};
+/**
+ * Typical duration ranges in days [min, max] for each event type.
+ * Used by `generateClimateEvent` to set `durationDays`.
+ */
+export const EVENT_DURATION_RANGE = {
+    drought: [60, 180],
+    flood: [7, 30],
+    harsh_winter: [30, 90],
+    earthquake: [1, 3],
+    plague_season: [30, 120],
+    locust_swarm: [7, 21],
+};
+/**
+ * Daily probability of each event type triggering [Q].
+ * Roll = `eventSeed(...) % SCALE.Q`; triggers when roll < dailyProb.
+ *
+ * These correspond to rough annual frequencies:
+ *   harsh_winter: q(0.005) ≈ 0.5%/day ≈ ~50% chance within a year
+ *   flood:        q(0.004) ≈ 0.4%/day ≈ ~40% within a year
+ *   drought:      q(0.003) ≈ 0.3%/day
+ *   plague_season:q(0.002) ≈ 0.2%/day
+ *   locust_swarm: q(0.001) ≈ 0.1%/day
+ *   earthquake:   q(0.0005)≈ 0.05%/day (rare)
+ */
+export const EVENT_DAILY_PROBABILITY_Q = {
+    harsh_winter: 50, // 50/10000 = 0.5% per day
+    flood: 40,
+    drought: 30,
+    plague_season: 20,
+    locust_swarm: 10,
+    earthquake: 5,
+};
+// ── Factory ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+/** Create a `ClimateEvent` with explicit parameters. */
+export function createClimateEvent(eventId, type, severity_Q, durationDays) {
+    return {
+        eventId,
+        type,
+        severity_Q: clampQ(severity_Q, 0, SCALE.Q),
+        durationDays: Math.max(1, durationDays),
+    };
+}
+/** Start tracking an active climate event. */
+export function activateClimateEvent(event) {
+    return { event, remainingDays: event.durationDays, elapsedDays: 0 };
+}
+// ── Effect computation ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+/**
+ * Compute the `ClimateEffects` bundle for a given event at its current severity.
+ *
+ * Each field = `round(BASE_EFFECTS[type][field] × severity_Q / SCALE.Q)`.
+ * Returns a zero bundle if `active.remainingDays <= 0`.
+ */
+export function computeClimateEffects(active) {
+    if (active.remainingDays <= 0) {
+        return zeroEffects();
+    }
+    const base = BASE_EFFECTS[active.event.type];
+    const sev = active.event.severity_Q;
+    return {
+        deathPressure_Q: scale(base.deathPressure_Q, sev),
+        harvestYieldPenalty_Q: scale(base.harvestYieldPenalty_Q, sev),
+        epidemicGrowthBonus_Q: scale(base.epidemicGrowthBonus_Q, sev),
+        infrastructureDamage_Q: scale(base.infrastructureDamage_Q, sev),
+        unrestPressure_Q: scale(base.unrestPressure_Q, sev),
+        marchPenalty_Q: scale(base.marchPenalty_Q, sev),
+    };
+}
+function scale(base, severity_Q) {
+    return clampQ(Math.round(base * severity_Q / SCALE.Q), 0, SCALE.Q);
+}
+function zeroEffects() {
+    return {
+        deathPressure_Q: 0,
+        harvestYieldPenalty_Q: 0,
+        epidemicGrowthBonus_Q: 0,
+        infrastructureDamage_Q: 0,
+        unrestPressure_Q: 0,
+        marchPenalty_Q: 0,
+    };
+}
+// ── Event step ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+/**
+ * Advance an active climate event by `elapsedDays`.
+ * Decrements `remainingDays` (floor at 0) and increments `elapsedDays`.
+ * Returns `true` if the event has expired this step.
+ */
+export function stepClimateEvent(active, elapsedDays) {
+    active.elapsedDays += elapsedDays;
+    active.remainingDays = Math.max(0, active.remainingDays - elapsedDays);
+    return active.remainingDays === 0;
+}
+/** Return true if the event has run its full duration. */
+export function isClimateEventExpired(active) {
+    return active.remainingDays <= 0;
+}
+// ── Random event generation ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
+/**
+ * Attempt to generate a random climate event for a polity on the given tick.
+ *
+ * Each event type is rolled independently.  Returns the first event whose
+ * annual probability roll succeeds, or `undefined` if none trigger.
+ *
+ * Roll: `eventSeed(worldSeed, tick, polityHash, 0, typeSalt) % SCALE.Q`
+ * vs daily probability = `round(annualProb / 365)`.
+ *
+ * @param polityHash  `hashString(polity.id)` from Phase-61.
+ * @param worldSeed   World-level seed.
+ * @param tick        Current simulation tick (day).
+ */
+export function generateClimateEvent(polityHash, worldSeed, tick) {
+    const types = [
+        "harsh_winter", "flood", "drought", "plague_season", "locust_swarm", "earthquake",
+    ];
+    for (let i = 0; i < types.length; i++) {
+        const type = types[i];
+        const dailyProb = EVENT_DAILY_PROBABILITY_Q[type];
+        const seed = eventSeed(worldSeed, tick, polityHash, 0, i + 1);
+        const roll = seed % SCALE.Q;
+        if (roll < dailyProb) {
+            // Determine severity: another seed roll, maps to q(0.20)–q(0.90)
+            const sevSeed = eventSeed(worldSeed, tick, polityHash, i + 1, 42);
+            const sevRoll = sevSeed % SCALE.Q;
+            const severity_Q = clampQ(q(0.20) + Math.round(sevRoll * q(0.70) / SCALE.Q), 0, SCALE.Q);
+            // Duration: interpolate within the type's range
+            const [minDays, maxDays] = EVENT_DURATION_RANGE[type];
+            const durSeed = eventSeed(worldSeed, tick, polityHash, i + 2, 7);
+            const durRange = maxDays - minDays;
+            const durationDays = minDays + (durSeed % (durRange + 1));
+            const eventId = `${type}_${tick}_${polityHash % 10000}`;
+            return createClimateEvent(eventId, type, severity_Q, durationDays);
+        }
+    }
+    return undefined;
+}
+// ── Aggregate helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+/**
+ * Combine effects from multiple simultaneous active events (e.g. drought + locust).
+ * Each field is summed and clamped to SCALE.Q.
+ */
+export function aggregateClimateEffects(actives) {
+    let death = 0, harvest = 0, epidemic = 0, infra = 0, unrest = 0, march = 0;
+    for (const active of actives) {
+        const fx = computeClimateEffects(active);
+        death += fx.deathPressure_Q;
+        harvest += fx.harvestYieldPenalty_Q;
+        epidemic += fx.epidemicGrowthBonus_Q;
+        infra += fx.infrastructureDamage_Q;
+        unrest += fx.unrestPressure_Q;
+        march += fx.marchPenalty_Q;
+    }
+    return {
+        deathPressure_Q: clampQ(death, 0, SCALE.Q),
+        harvestYieldPenalty_Q: clampQ(harvest, 0, SCALE.Q),
+        epidemicGrowthBonus_Q: clampQ(epidemic, 0, SCALE.Q),
+        infrastructureDamage_Q: clampQ(infra, 0, SCALE.Q),
+        unrestPressure_Q: clampQ(unrest, 0, SCALE.Q),
+        marchPenalty_Q: clampQ(march, 0, SCALE.Q),
+    };
+}

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@its-not-rocket-science/ananke",
-  "version": "0.1.40",
+  "version": "0.1.41",
   "type": "module",
   "description": "Deterministic lockstep-friendly SI-units RPG/physics core (fixed-point TS)",
   "license": "MIT",
@@ -146,6 +146,10 @@
     "./resources": {
       "import": "./dist/src/resources.js",
       "types": "./dist/src/resources.d.ts"
+    },
+    "./climate": {
+      "import": "./dist/src/climate.js",
+      "types": "./dist/src/climate.d.ts"
     }
   },
   "files": [