@idlekit/cli 0.5.0 → 0.6.0

package/dist/main.js

@@ -11605,6 +11605,63 @@ function logicalDrawId(drawIndex) {
   return String(drawIndex);
 }
 
+// ../core/dist/sim/sessionOffline.js
+function validateCreditPolicy(policy) {
+  if (!policy || typeof policy !== "object" || Array.isArray(policy) || "actions" in policy) {
+    throw new RangeError("prepareOffline policy must be a credit policy; set actions on scenario.run.offline");
+  }
+  if (policy.maxSec !== undefined && (typeof policy.maxSec !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(policy.maxSec) || policy.maxSec < 0)) {
+    throw new RangeError("prepareOffline policy.maxSec must be finite and nonnegative");
+  }
+  if (policy.overflowPolicy !== undefined && policy.overflowPolicy !== "clamp" && policy.overflowPolicy !== "reject") {
+    throw new RangeError("prepareOffline policy.overflowPolicy must be clamp or reject");
+  }
+  const decay = policy.decay;
+  if (decay !== undefined) {
+    if (!decay || typeof decay !== "object" || Array.isArray(decay) || decay.kind !== "none" && decay.kind !== "linear") {
+      throw new RangeError("prepareOffline policy.decay must select none or linear");
+    }
+    if (decay.floorRatio !== undefined && (typeof decay.floorRatio !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(decay.floorRatio) || decay.floorRatio < 0 || decay.floorRatio > 1)) {
+      throw new RangeError("prepareOffline policy.decay.floorRatio must be finite and in 0..1");
+    }
+  }
+}
+function prepareOfflineSegment(args) {
+  const { scenario, prepare } = args;
+  if (!prepare)
+    return { model: scenario.model, policy: scenario.run.offline, stepSec: scenario.run.stepSec };
+  const prepared = prepare({
+    ctx: scenario.ctx,
+    model: scenario.model,
+    state: deepClonePreservingPrototype(args.state),
+    seconds: args.seconds,
+    wallStartT: args.wallStartT,
+    wallEndT: args.wallEndT,
+    ...scenario.run.offline ? { policy: deepClonePreservingPrototype(scenario.run.offline) } : {}
+  });
+  if (!prepared || typeof prepared !== "object" || Array.isArray(prepared) || "then" in prepared) {
+    throw new RangeError("prepareOffline must synchronously return a preparation object");
+  }
+  if (prepared.stepSec !== undefined && (typeof prepared.stepSec !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(prepared.stepSec) || prepared.stepSec <= 0)) {
+    throw new RangeError("prepareOffline stepSec must be finite and positive");
+  }
+  if (prepared.policy !== undefined)
+    validateCreditPolicy(prepared.policy);
+  const model = prepared.model === undefined ? scenario.model : prepared.model;
+  if (!model || typeof model !== "object" || typeof model.income !== "function" || typeof model.actions !== "function") {
+    throw new RangeError("prepareOffline model must provide income and actions");
+  }
+  return {
+    model,
+    stepSec: prepared.stepSec ?? scenario.run.stepSec,
+    policy: prepared.policy === undefined ? scenario.run.offline : {
+      ...deepClonePreservingPrototype(prepared.policy),
+      actions: scenario.run.offline?.actions
+    }
+  };
+}
+var init_sessionOffline = () => {};
+
 // ../core/dist/sim/session.js
 function buildBlocks(pattern) {
   const blocks = [];
@@ -11700,6 +11757,9 @@ function withClocks(scenario, wallT, wallEndT, rewardT, activeT) {
   };
 }
 function simulateSessionPattern(args) {
+  if (args.prepareOffline !== undefined && typeof args.prepareOffline !== "function") {
+    throw new TypeError("prepareOffline must be a function");
+  }
   const sc = args.seed === undefined ? args.scenario : { ...args.scenario, ctx: { ...args.scenario.ctx, seed: args.seed } };
   const start = sc.initial;
   const horizonSec = args.pattern.days * 86400;
@@ -11786,7 +11846,19 @@ function simulateSessionPattern(args) {
       return;
     const requested = wallEnd - wallT;
     const wallStart = wallT;
-    const segment = segmentScenario(wallStart, wallEnd);
+    let segment = segmentScenario(wallStart, wallEnd);
+    const prepared = prepareOfflineSegment({
+      scenario: segment,
+      state,
+      seconds: requested,
+      wallStartT: wallStart,
+      wallEndT: wallEnd,
+      prepare: args.prepareOffline
+    });
+    if (prepared.model !== segment.model) {
+      const { clocks: _clocks, ...ctx } = segment.ctx;
+      segment = withClocks({ ...segment, ctx, model: prepared.model }, wallStart, wallEnd, state.t, activeSec);
+    }
     const offlineRun = applyOfflineSeconds({
       scenario: segment,
       seconds: requested,
@@ -11798,15 +11870,16 @@ function simulateSessionPattern(args) {
           enabled: sc.run.eventLog?.enabled ?? true,
           maxEvents: sc.run.eventLog?.maxEvents
         },
-        policy: sc.run.offline,
+        stepSec: prepared.stepSec,
+        policy: prepared.policy,
         ...stopFn ? { until: stopFn } : {}
       }
     });
     const credited = offlineRun.offline.simulatedSec;
     const reason = classify();
-    const absence = reason ? offlineAbsenceForCredit(credited, requested, sc.run.offline) : requested;
+    const absence = reason ? offlineAbsenceForCredit(credited, requested, prepared.policy) : requested;
     const gapEnd = wallStart + absence;
-    const effective = absence === requested ? offlineRun.offline.effectiveSec : resolveOfflineSeconds(absence, sc.run.offline).effectiveSec;
+    const effective = absence === requested ? offlineRun.offline.effectiveSec : resolveOfflineSeconds(absence, prepared.policy).effectiveSec;
     const lost = Math.max(0, absence - effective);
     offlineElapsedSec += absence;
     offlineCreditedSec += credited;
@@ -11977,6 +12050,7 @@ var init_session = __esm(() => {
   init_goalRead();
   init_observation();
   init_offline();
+  init_sessionOffline();
   init_simulator();
 });
 
@@ -12972,11 +13046,19 @@ var init_params2 = __esm(() => {
   }));
 });
 
-// ../core/dist/sim/strategy/opt/objectives/builtins.js
-function safeAbsLog10(E, x) {
-  const v = E.absLog10(x);
-  return Number.isFinite(v) ? v : -300;
+// ../core/dist/sim/strategy/opt/finiteAmountLog10.js
+function finiteAmountLog10(E, amount) {
+  if (!E.isFinite(amount))
+    throw new RangeError("Tuning requires finite monetary amounts in the selected engine");
+  const value = E.absLog10(amount);
+  if (value === Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY)
+    return -300;
+  if (!Number.isFinite(value))
+    throw new RangeError("Tuning requires a finite monetary logarithm");
+  return value;
 }
+
+// ../core/dist/sim/strategy/opt/objectives/builtins.js
 var builtinObjectiveFactories;
 var init_builtins2 = __esm(() => {
   init_parseMoney2();
@@ -12990,7 +13072,7 @@ var init_builtins2 = __esm(() => {
         id: "endMoneyLog10",
         score: ({ scenario, run }) => {
           const { E } = scenario.ctx;
-          return safeAbsLog10(E, run.end.wallet.money.amount);
+          return finiteAmountLog10(E, run.end.wallet.money.amount);
         }
       })
     },
@@ -13003,7 +13085,7 @@ var init_builtins2 = __esm(() => {
         score: ({ scenario, run }) => {
           const { E } = scenario.ctx;
           const worth = scenario.model.netWorth?.(scenario.ctx, run.end) ?? run.end.wallet.money;
-          return safeAbsLog10(E, worth.amount);
+          return finiteAmountLog10(E, worth.amount);
         }
       })
     },
@@ -13018,7 +13100,7 @@ var init_builtins2 = __esm(() => {
           const sec = Math.max(1, runElapsedSec(run));
           const hours = sec / 3600;
           const worth = scenario.model.netWorth?.(scenario.ctx, run.end) ?? run.end.wallet.money;
-          return safeAbsLog10(E, worth.amount) - Math.log10(Math.max(0.000000000001, hours));
+          return finiteAmountLog10(E, worth.amount) - Math.log10(Math.max(0.000000000001, hours));
         }
       })
     },
@@ -13032,7 +13114,7 @@ var init_builtins2 = __esm(() => {
           const { E } = scenario.ctx;
           const sec = Math.max(1, runElapsedSec(run));
           const hours = sec / 3600;
-          return safeAbsLog10(E, run.end.prestige.points) - Math.log10(Math.max(0.000000000001, hours));
+          return finiteAmountLog10(E, run.end.prestige.points) - Math.log10(Math.max(0.000000000001, hours));
         }
       })
     },
@@ -13047,7 +13129,7 @@ var init_builtins2 = __esm(() => {
           const sec = Math.max(1, runElapsedSec(run));
           const startWorth = scenario.model.netWorth?.(scenario.ctx, run.start) ?? run.start.wallet.money;
           const endWorth = scenario.model.netWorth?.(scenario.ctx, run.end) ?? run.end.wallet.money;
-          const deltaLog = safeAbsLog10(E, endWorth.amount) - safeAbsLog10(E, startWorth.amount);
+          const deltaLog = finiteAmountLog10(E, endWorth.amount) - finiteAmountLog10(E, startWorth.amount);
           return deltaLog / (sec / 3600);
         }
       })
@@ -13073,6 +13155,9 @@ var init_builtins2 = __esm(() => {
               suffix: { kind: "alphaInfinite", minLen: 2 }
             }).amount;
             const endWorth = scenario.model.netWorth?.(scenario.ctx, run.end) ?? run.end.wallet.money;
+            if (!E.isFinite(threshold) || !E.isFinite(endWorth.amount)) {
+              throw new RangeError("ETA objective requires finite target and net worth in the selected engine");
+            }
             const reached = E.cmp(endWorth.amount, threshold) >= 0;
             if (!reached)
               return -(params.unreachedPenaltySec ?? 1e9);
@@ -13102,7 +13187,7 @@ var init_builtins2 = __esm(() => {
             const sec = Math.max(1, runElapsedSec(run));
             const hours = sec / 3600;
             const worth = scenario.model.netWorth?.(scenario.ctx, run.end) ?? run.end.wallet.money;
-            const worthLog = safeAbsLog10(E, worth.amount);
+            const worthLog = finiteAmountLog10(E, worth.amount);
             const stats = run.stats;
             if (!stats || stats.money.droppedRate === null || stats.actions.status === "missing") {
               throw new Error("pacingBalancedLog10 needs observed money and action counters, but this run has none (run.observation.enabled is false)");
@@ -13301,8 +13386,45 @@ function cloneCandidateInitial(state) {
 }
 var init_freshRun = () => {};
 
+// ../core/dist/sim/strategy/opt/finiteMean.js
+function finiteMean(values) {
+  if (values.length === 0)
+    throw new RangeError("A mean requires at least one value");
+  const bits = new DataView(new ArrayBuffer(8));
+  let total = 0n;
+  for (const value of values) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(value))
+      throw new RangeError("A mean requires finite values");
+    bits.setFloat64(0, value, false);
+    const high = bits.getUint32(0, false);
+    const low = bits.getUint32(4, false);
+    const exponent = high >>> 20 & 2047;
+    const fraction = BigInt(high & 1048575) << 32n | BigInt(low);
+    const significand = exponent === 0 ? fraction : 1n << 52n | fraction;
+    const units = significand << BigInt(Math.max(0, exponent - 1));
+    total += high >>> 31 ? -units : units;
+  }
+  if (total === 0n)
+    return 0;
+  const negative = total < 0n;
+  const magnitude = negative ? -total : total;
+  const count = BigInt(values.length);
+  const integerMean = magnitude / count;
+  const shift = Math.max(0, integerMean.toString(2).length - 53);
+  const denominator = count << BigInt(shift);
+  let significand = magnitude / denominator;
+  const twiceRemainder = 2n * (magnitude % denominator);
+  if (twiceRemainder > denominator || twiceRemainder === denominator && (significand & 1n) !== 0n) {
+    significand++;
+  }
+  const mean = Number(significand) * 2 ** (shift - 1074);
+  return negative ? -mean : mean;
+}
+
 // ../core/dist/sim/strategy/opt/runner.js
 function runCandidateAndScore(args) {
+  if (args.seeds.length === 0)
+    throw new RangeError("Tuning requires at least one seed");
   const stratFactory = args.strategyRegistry.get(args.strategyId);
   if (!stratFactory)
     throw new Error(`Unknown strategy: ${args.strategyId}`);
@@ -13349,24 +13471,28 @@ function runCandidateAndScore(args) {
     const sc = openScenario();
     const run = runScenario(sc);
     assertHorizonReached(run, "runCandidateAndScore");
+    const worth = sc.model.netWorth?.(sc.ctx, run.end) ?? run.end.wallet.money;
+    const endMoneyLog10 = finiteAmountLog10(sc.ctx.E, run.end.wallet.money.amount);
+    const endNetWorthLog10 = finiteAmountLog10(sc.ctx.E, worth.amount);
     const s = objective.score({ scenario: sc, run, evaluation: {
       open: openScenario,
       registries: { models: args.modelRegistry, strategies: args.strategyRegistry },
       isolation: { model: args.model, statefulModel: args.statefulModel, strategy: { id: args.strategyId, params: candidateParams } }
     } });
+    if (!Number.isFinite(s))
+      throw new RangeError(`Objective ${args.objectiveId} must return a finite score (seed ${seed})`);
     seedScores.push(s);
-    const worth = sc.model.netWorth?.(sc.ctx, run.end) ?? run.end.wallet.money;
     seedResults.push({
       seed,
       score: s,
       durationSec: Math.max(0, runElapsedSec(run)),
-      endMoneyLog10: sc.ctx.E.absLog10(run.end.wallet.money.amount),
-      endNetWorthLog10: sc.ctx.E.absLog10(worth.amount),
+      endMoneyLog10,
+      endNetWorthLog10,
       droppedRate: run.stats?.money.droppedRate ?? null,
       actionsApplied: run.stats && run.stats.actions.status === "observed" ? run.stats.actions.applied : null
     });
   }
-  const score = seedScores.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / Math.max(1, seedScores.length);
+  const score = finiteMean(seedScores);
   return { score, seedScores, seedResults };
 }
 var init_runner = __esm(() => {
@@ -14353,7 +14479,7 @@ function compensatedSum(values, scale) {
   }
   return sum + compensation;
 }
-function finiteMean(values) {
+function finiteMean2(values) {
   let smallest = Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY;
   let largest = Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY;
   for (const value of values) {
@@ -14503,7 +14629,7 @@ function analyzeDistribution(request) {
   }
   const eligible = observed.length + rightCensored;
   const completionRate = eligible > 0 ? observed.length / eligible : null;
-  const arithmetic = observed.length > 0 ? finiteMean(observed) : null;
+  const arithmetic = observed.length > 0 ? finiteMean2(observed) : null;
   const identical = observed.every((value) => value === observed[0]);
   const rawVariance = arithmetic === null ? null : finiteVariance(observed, arithmetic);
   const variance = rawVariance === 0 && !identical ? null : rawVariance;
@@ -19353,32 +19479,46 @@ function buildTimeline(args) {
 }
 
 // ../core/dist/report/compare.js
-function safeNum(input) {
-  if (typeof input === "number")
-    return input;
-  if (typeof input === "string") {
-    const n = Number(input);
-    if (Number.isFinite(n))
-      return n;
-    const m = /^\s*([+-]?\d+(?:\.\d+)?)e([+-]?\d+)\s*$/i.exec(input);
-    if (m) {
-      const mantissa = Number(m[1]);
-      const exp = Number(m[2]);
-      if (mantissa === 0)
-        return 0;
-      if (Number.isFinite(mantissa) && Number.isFinite(exp)) {
-        return Math.log10(Math.abs(mantissa)) + exp;
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  return Number.NaN;
+function decimalParts(input) {
+  const match = /^([+-]?)(?:(\d+)(?:\.(\d+))?|\.(\d+))(?:e([+-]?\d+))?([a-z]{2,})?$/i.exec(input.trim());
+  if (!match)
+    throw new RangeError("Static monetary comparison requires decimal amounts");
+  let suffixExponent = 0n;
+  if (match[6]) {
+    let index = 0n;
+    for (const ch of match[6].toLowerCase())
+      index = index * 26n + BigInt(ch.charCodeAt(0) - 96);
+    suffixExponent = (index - 26n) * 3n;
+  }
+  const fraction = match[3] ?? match[4] ?? "";
+  const digits = `${match[2] ?? ""}${fraction}`.replace(/^0+/, "");
+  let end = digits.length;
+  while (end > 0 && digits[end - 1] === "0")
+    end--;
+  return {
+    sign: digits.length === 0 ? 0 : match[1] === "-" ? -1 : 1,
+    digits: digits.slice(0, end),
+    magnitude: BigInt(match[5] ?? "0") + suffixExponent - BigInt(fraction.length) + BigInt(digits.length)
+  };
+}
+function compareStaticMoney(left, right) {
+  const a = decimalParts(left), b = decimalParts(right);
+  if (a.sign !== b.sign)
+    return a.sign < b.sign ? -1 : 1;
+  if (a.sign === 0)
+    return 0;
+  if (a.magnitude !== b.magnitude)
+    return (a.magnitude < b.magnitude ? -1 : 1) * a.sign;
+  const length = Math.max(a.digits.length, b.digits.length);
+  const ad = a.digits.padEnd(length, "0"), bd = b.digits.padEnd(length, "0");
+  return (ad < bd ? -1 : ad > bd ? 1 : 0) * a.sign;
 }
 function score(s, metric) {
   switch (metric) {
     case "endMoney":
-      return safeNum(s.initial.wallet.amount);
+      return s.initial.wallet.amount;
     case "endNetWorth":
-      return safeNum(s.initial.maxMoneyEver ?? s.initial.wallet.amount);
+      return s.initial.maxMoneyEver ?? s.initial.wallet.amount;
     case "droppedRate":
       return -(s.policy.maxLogGap ?? 0);
     case "etaToTargetWorth":
@@ -19417,6 +19557,13 @@ function compareScenarios(args) {
   const useMeasured = measuredA !== undefined && measuredB !== undefined;
   const aScore = useMeasured ? measuredA : score(args.a, args.metric);
   const bScore = useMeasured ? measuredB : score(args.b, args.metric);
+  if (!useMeasured && (args.metric === "endMoney" || args.metric === "endNetWorth")) {
+    const order = compareStaticMoney(String(aScore), String(bScore));
+    return {
+      better: order === 0 ? "tie" : order > 0 ? "a" : "b",
+      detail: { aScore, bScore, metric: args.metric, source: "static" }
+    };
+  }
   const higherBetter = args.metric === "endMoney" || args.metric === "endNetWorth" || args.metric === "visibleChangesPerMinute";
   if (aScore === bScore) {
     return {
@@ -19440,420 +19587,924 @@ function compareScenarios(args) {
   };
 }
 
-// ../core/dist/index.js
-var init_dist2 = __esm(() => {
-  init_types();
-  init_breakInfinity2();
-  init_breakEternity2();
-  init_types5();
-  init_types6();
-  init_emitter();
-  init_tickMoney2();
-  init_suffixer();
-  init_formatMoney2();
-  init_parseMoney2();
-  init_visibilityTracker2();
-  init_moneyState();
-  init_simState();
-  init_types7();
-  init_validate();
-  init_concreteValidator();
-  init_scenarioContract();
-  init_compile2();
-  init_simulator();
-  init_advance();
-  init_step();
-  init_stepTypes();
-  init_offline();
-  init_session();
-  init_monteCarlo();
-  init_executionBackend();
-  init_integrationMatrix();
-  init_runFactory();
-  init_constraints();
-  init_observation();
-  init_types8();
-  init_contracts();
-  init_stability();
-  init_scripted();
-  init_greedy();
-  init_planner();
-  init_params();
-  init_builtins();
-  init_tuneSpec();
-  init_validate2();
-  init_objective();
-  init_params2();
-  init_builtins2();
-  init_tuner();
-  init_randomSearch();
-  init_runner();
-  init_eta();
-  init_prestigeCycle();
-  init_resetCycle();
-  init_resetOptimization();
-  init_distribution();
-  init_experiment();
-  init_sensitivity();
-  init_growthFit();
-  init_contracts2();
-  init_metrics();
-  init_registry();
-  init_analyzers();
-  init_inspect();
-  init_checks3();
-  init_judge();
-  init_flow();
-  init_jevAdvisory();
-});
-
-// src/runtime/bun.ts
-var {$ } = globalThis.Bun;
-import { dirname } from "path";
-async function readTextFile(path) {
-  return Bun.file(path).text();
+// ../core/dist/ltv/projection.js
+function clamp012(v) {
+  if (v < 0)
+    return 0;
+  if (v > 1)
+    return 1;
+  return v;
 }
-async function readJsonFile(path) {
-  return Bun.file(path).json();
+function deriveMonetizationConfig(scenario) {
+  const m = scenario.monetization;
+  const q = (m?.uncertainty?.quantiles ?? [0.5, 0.9]).filter((x) => typeof x === "number");
+  const quantiles = q.length > 0 ? [...new Set(q)].sort((a, b) => a - b) : [0.5, 0.9];
+  return {
+    cohorts: {
+      baseUsers: m?.cohorts?.baseUsers ?? 1
+    },
+    retention: {
+      d1: m?.retention?.d1 ?? 0.42,
+      d7: m?.retention?.d7 ?? 0.2,
+      d30: m?.retention?.d30 ?? 0.09,
+      d90: m?.retention?.d90 ?? 0.04,
+      longTailDailyDecay: m?.retention?.longTailDailyDecay ?? 0.02
+    },
+    revenue: {
+      payerConversion: m?.revenue?.payerConversion ?? 0.03,
+      arppuDaily: m?.revenue?.arppuDaily ?? 0.7,
+      adArpDau: m?.revenue?.adArpDau ?? 0.02,
+      platformFeeRate: m?.revenue?.platformFeeRate ?? 0.3,
+      grossMarginRate: m?.revenue?.grossMarginRate ?? 0.92,
+      progressionRevenueLift: m?.revenue?.progressionRevenueLift ?? 0.4,
+      progressionLogSpan: m?.revenue?.progressionLogSpan ?? 6
+    },
+    acquisition: {
+      cpi: m?.acquisition?.cpi ?? 0
+    },
+    uncertainty: {
+      enabled: m?.uncertainty?.enabled ?? false,
+      draws: m?.uncertainty?.draws ?? 300,
+      quantiles,
+      seed: m?.uncertainty?.seed,
+      sigma: {
+        retention: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.retention ?? 0.08,
+        conversion: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.conversion ?? 0.12,
+        arppu: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.arppu ?? 0.2,
+        ad: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.ad ?? 0.15
+      },
+      correlation: {
+        retentionConversion: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionConversion ?? 0,
+        retentionArppu: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionArppu ?? 0,
+        retentionAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionAd ?? 0,
+        conversionArppu: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.conversionArppu ?? 0,
+        conversionAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.conversionAd ?? 0,
+        arppuAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.arppuAd ?? 0
+      }
+    }
+  };
 }
-async function writeTextFile(path, body) {
-  try {
-    await ensureDir(dirname(path));
-    await Bun.write(path, body);
-  } catch (error) {
-    throw cliError("OUTPUT_WRITE_FAILED", `Unable to write output file: ${path}`, {
-      detail: errorDetail(error),
-      hint: "Choose a writable output path and check that its parent is a directory.",
-      cause: error
-    });
+function retentionAtDay(ret, day) {
+  if (day <= 0)
+    return 1;
+  if (day <= 1)
+    return ret.d1;
+  if (day <= 7)
+    return ret.d1 + (ret.d7 - ret.d1) * (day - 1) / 6;
+  if (day <= 30)
+    return ret.d7 + (ret.d30 - ret.d7) * (day - 7) / 23;
+  if (day <= 90)
+    return ret.d30 + (ret.d90 - ret.d30) * (day - 30) / 60;
+  const extra = day - 90;
+  return clamp012(ret.d90 * Math.exp(-ret.longTailDailyDecay * extra));
+}
+function progressionFactor(startWorthLog10, endWorthLog10, span) {
+  if (!Number.isFinite(startWorthLog10) || !Number.isFinite(endWorthLog10) || !Number.isFinite(span) || span <= 0) {
+    return 0;
   }
+  return clamp012((endWorthLog10 - startWorthLog10) / span);
 }
-function writeStdout(body) {
-  return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
-    process.stdout.write(body, (error) => error ? reject(error) : resolve());
-  });
+function estimateLtvPerUser(args) {
+  const { config, horizonDays } = args;
+  const progression = clamp012(args.progression);
+  const arppuDaily = config.revenue.arppuDaily * (1 + progression * config.revenue.progressionRevenueLift);
+  const adArpDau = config.revenue.adArpDau * (1 + progression * config.revenue.progressionRevenueLift * 0.5);
+  const payerConversion = config.revenue.payerConversion;
+  const fullDays = Math.floor(Math.max(0, horizonDays));
+  const remainder = Math.max(0, horizonDays - fullDays);
+  let gross = 0;
+  for (let day = 1;day <= fullDays; day++) {
+    const active = retentionAtDay(config.retention, day);
+    gross += active * (payerConversion * arppuDaily + adArpDau);
+  }
+  if (remainder > 0) {
+    const active = retentionAtDay(config.retention, fullDays + 1);
+    gross += remainder * active * (payerConversion * arppuDaily + adArpDau);
+  }
+  const net = gross * (1 - config.revenue.platformFeeRate) * config.revenue.grossMarginRate;
+  const ltv = net - config.acquisition.cpi;
+  return {
+    cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser: gross,
+    cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser: net,
+    cumulativeLtvPerUser: ltv
+  };
 }
-async function ensureDir(path) {
-  await $`mkdir -p ${path}`.quiet();
+
+// ../core/dist/ltv/uncertainty.js
+function clamp013(v) {
+  if (v < 0)
+    return 0;
+  if (v > 1)
+    return 1;
+  return v;
 }
-async function fileExists(path) {
-  return Bun.file(path).exists();
+function clampCorrelation(v) {
+  if (!Number.isFinite(v))
+    return 0;
+  if (v < -1)
+    return -1;
+  if (v > 1)
+    return 1;
+  return v;
 }
-function sha256Hex(value) {
-  const hasher = new Bun.CryptoHasher("sha256");
-  hasher.update(value);
-  return hasher.digest("hex");
+function randNormal(rng) {
+  const u1 = Math.max(0.000000000001, rng());
+  const u2 = Math.max(0.000000000001, rng());
+  return Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(u1)) * Math.cos(2 * Math.PI * u2);
 }
-function runText(args, opts) {
-  const proc = Bun.spawnSync(args, {
-    cwd: opts?.cwd,
-    env: opts?.env,
-    stdout: "pipe",
-    stderr: "pipe",
-    maxBuffer: MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES
-  });
-  if (proc.exitCode !== 0) {
-    const stderr = proc.stderr.toString().trim();
-    const stdout = proc.stdout.toString().trim();
-    const detail = stderr || stdout || `command failed with exit code ${proc.exitCode}`;
-    throw new Error(detail);
+function buildCorrelationMatrix(base) {
+  const rc = clampCorrelation(base.retentionConversion);
+  const ra = clampCorrelation(base.retentionArppu);
+  const rd = clampCorrelation(base.retentionAd);
+  const ca = clampCorrelation(base.conversionArppu);
+  const cd = clampCorrelation(base.conversionAd);
+  const ad = clampCorrelation(base.arppuAd);
+  return [
+    [1, rc, ra, rd],
+    [rc, 1, ca, cd],
+    [ra, ca, 1, ad],
+    [rd, cd, ad, 1]
+  ];
+}
+function withOffDiagonalScale(matrix, alpha) {
+  return matrix.map((row, i) => row.map((v, j) => {
+    if (i === j)
+      return 1;
+    return v * alpha;
+  }));
+}
+function cholesky4(matrix) {
+  const n = 4;
+  const l = Array.from({ length: n }, () => Array.from({ length: n }, () => 0));
+  for (let i = 0;i < n; i++) {
+    for (let j = 0;j <= i; j++) {
+      let sum = 0;
+      for (let k = 0;k < j; k++) {
+        sum += (l[i]?.[k] ?? 0) * (l[j]?.[k] ?? 0);
+      }
+      if (i === j) {
+        const val = (matrix[i]?.[i] ?? 0) - sum;
+        if (val <= 0.000000001)
+          return null;
+        l[i][j] = Math.sqrt(val);
+      } else {
+        const denom = l[j]?.[j] ?? 0;
+        if (Math.abs(denom) < 0.000000001)
+          return null;
+        l[i][j] = ((matrix[i]?.[j] ?? 0) - sum) / denom;
+      }
+    }
   }
-  return proc.stdout.toString();
+  return l;
 }
-var MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES;
-var init_bun = __esm(() => {
-  init_errors3();
-  MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES = 8 * 1024 * 1024;
-});
-
-// package.json
-var require_package = __commonJS(function(exports, module) {
-  module.exports = {
-    name: "@idlekit/cli",
-    version: "0.5.0",
-    description: "Bun-first idk CLI for idle game scenario validation, simulation, tuning, and reporting.",
-    license: "MIT",
-    type: "module",
-    files: [
-      "dist",
-      "README.md",
-      "LICENSE"
-    ],
-    bin: {
-      idk: "dist/main.js"
-    },
-    repository: {
-      type: "git",
-      url: "git+https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit.git",
-      directory: "packages/cli"
-    },
-    homepage: "https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit/tree/main/packages/cli#readme",
-    bugs: {
-      url: "https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit/issues"
-    },
-    keywords: [
-      "bun",
-      "idle-game",
-      "incremental-game",
-      "cli",
-      "economy-simulator",
-      "game-balancing",
-      "simulation"
-    ],
-    publishConfig: {
-      access: "public"
-    },
-    engines: {
-      bun: ">=1.4.2"
-    },
-    scripts: {
-      dev: "bun src/main.ts",
-      "dev:watch": "bun --watch src/main.ts",
-      "generate:check": "bun scripts/command-check.ts",
-      "doctor:completions": "bun scripts/command-check.ts",
-      "review:smoke": "bun scripts/review-smoke.ts",
-      build: "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --outdir dist --sourcemap",
-      "build:bin": "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --entry src/bin.ts --outdir dist/bin --targets native",
-      typecheck: "ttsc -p tsconfig.json --noEmit",
-      test: "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --outdir .test-bundle && IDLEKIT_CLI_ENTRY=.test-bundle/main.js bun test --timeout 90000 src",
-      prepack: "bun run build && cd ../.. && bun tools/package-manifest.ts prepare packages/cli",
-      postpack: "cd ../.. && bun tools/package-manifest.ts restore packages/cli"
-    },
-    dependencies: {
-      "@clack/prompts": "1.8.1",
-      "@gunshi/plugin-completion": "0.37.3",
-      "@gunshi/plugin-suggestion": "0.37.3",
-      "@idlekit/core": "0.4.1",
-      ajv: "^8.20.0",
-      gunshi: "0.37.3",
-      "proper-lockfile": "4.1.2",
-      yaml: "^2.9.1",
-      zod: "^4.6.5"
+function multiplyLowerTriangular(l, z) {
+  const out = [0, 0, 0, 0];
+  for (let i = 0;i < 4; i++) {
+    let sum = 0;
+    for (let j = 0;j <= i; j++) {
+      sum += (l[i]?.[j] ?? 0) * (z[j] ?? 0);
+    }
+    out[i] = sum;
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+function sampleCorrelatedNormals(rng, corr) {
+  const z = [randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng)];
+  const matrix = buildCorrelationMatrix(corr);
+  let l = cholesky4(matrix);
+  let alpha = 0.99;
+  while (!l && alpha > 0.000001) {
+    l = cholesky4(withOffDiagonalScale(matrix, alpha));
+    alpha *= 0.8;
+  }
+  if (!l) {
+    return {
+      retention: z[0] ?? 0,
+      conversion: z[1] ?? 0,
+      arppu: z[2] ?? 0,
+      ad: z[3] ?? 0
+    };
+  }
+  const c = multiplyLowerTriangular(l, z);
+  return {
+    retention: c[0] ?? 0,
+    conversion: c[1] ?? 0,
+    arppu: c[2] ?? 0,
+    ad: c[3] ?? 0
+  };
+}
+function applyLogNormalShock(mean, sigma, z) {
+  if (sigma <= 0)
+    return mean;
+  return mean * Math.exp(sigma * z - 0.5 * sigma * sigma);
+}
+function makeUncertainConfig(base, rng) {
+  const shock = sampleCorrelatedNormals(rng, base.uncertainty.correlation);
+  const d1 = clamp013(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d1, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention));
+  const d7 = Math.min(d1, clamp013(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d7, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
+  const d30 = Math.min(d7, clamp013(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d30, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
+  const d90 = Math.min(d30, clamp013(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d90, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
+  return {
+    ...base,
+    retention: {
+      ...base.retention,
+      d1,
+      d7,
+      d30,
+      d90
     },
-    devDependencies: {
-      "@types/proper-lockfile": "4.1.4"
+    revenue: {
+      ...base.revenue,
+      payerConversion: clamp013(applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.payerConversion, base.uncertainty.sigma.conversion, shock.conversion)),
+      arppuDaily: Math.max(0, applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.arppuDaily, base.uncertainty.sigma.arppu, shock.arppu)),
+      adArpDau: Math.max(0, applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.adArpDau, base.uncertainty.sigma.ad, shock.ad))
     }
   };
-});
-
-// src/runtime/selfCli.ts
-import { existsSync } from "fs";
-import { dirname as dirname3, resolve as resolve2 } from "path";
-function currentEntry() {
-  return Bun.main;
 }
-function isJavaScriptEntry(entry) {
-  return entry.endsWith(".js") || entry.endsWith(".mjs");
+function quantileFromSorted(sorted, q) {
+  if (sorted.length === 0)
+    return 0;
+  const idx = Math.max(0, Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.floor((sorted.length - 1) * q)));
+  return sorted[idx] ?? 0;
 }
-function isNativeEntry(entry) {
-  return entry.includes("$bunfs") || entry.includes("~BUN");
+function estimateLtvDistribution(args) {
+  const rng = mulberry32(args.seed);
+  const grossSamples = [];
+  const netSamples = [];
+  const ltvSamples = [];
+  const draws = Math.max(1, args.draws);
+  for (let i = 0;i < draws; i++) {
+    const sampled = makeUncertainConfig(args.config, rng);
+    const point = estimateLtvPerUser({
+      config: sampled,
+      horizonDays: args.horizonDays,
+      progression: args.progression
+    });
+    grossSamples.push(point.cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser);
+    netSamples.push(point.cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser);
+    ltvSamples.push(point.cumulativeLtvPerUser);
+  }
+  const avg = (arr) => arr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / Math.max(1, arr.length);
+  const sortedLtv = [...ltvSamples].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  const byQuantile = {};
+  for (const q of args.quantiles) {
+    byQuantile[`q${Math.round(q * 100)}`] = quantileFromSorted(sortedLtv, q);
+  }
+  return {
+    mean: {
+      cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser: avg(grossSamples),
+      cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser: avg(netSamples),
+      cumulativeLtvPerUser: avg(ltvSamples)
+    },
+    quantiles: byQuantile
+  };
 }
-function isBundledCliProcess(entry = currentEntry()) {
-  return isJavaScriptEntry(entry) || isNativeEntry(entry);
+var init_uncertainty = () => {};
+
+// ../core/dist/ltv/public.js
+function assertMonetization(monetization) {
+  const valid = validateScenarioV1({
+    schemaVersion: 1,
+    unit: { code: "LTV" },
+    policy: { mode: "drop" },
+    model: { id: "ltv-input", version: 1 },
+    initial: { wallet: { unit: "LTV", amount: "0" } },
+    clock: { stepSec: 1, durationSec: 1 },
+    monetization
+  });
+  if (!valid.ok)
+    throw new RangeError(valid.issues.map((issue) => issue.message).join("; "));
 }
-function cliPackageRoot(entry = currentEntry()) {
-  if (isNativeEntry(entry))
-    return process.cwd();
-  if (isBundledCliProcess(entry))
-    return resolve2(dirname3(entry), "..");
-  return resolve2(import.meta.dir, "../..");
+function assertQuantileValues(quantiles) {
+  if (quantiles.length === 0)
+    throw new RangeError("quantiles must be nonempty and in 0..1");
+  for (const q of quantiles) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(q) || q < 0 || q > 1)
+      throw new RangeError("quantiles must be nonempty and in 0..1");
+  }
 }
-function bundledCliConfig(entry) {
-  const config = resolve2(dirname3(entry), "../../../tools/bundled-cli-bunfig.toml");
-  if (!existsSync(config))
-    return;
+function assertConfig(config) {
+  const { retention, ...other } = config;
+  for (const day of ["d1", "d7", "d30", "d90"]) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(retention[day]) || retention[day] < 0 || retention[day] > 1) {
+      throw new RangeError(`retention.${day} must be finite and in 0..1`);
+    }
+  }
+  if (!Number.isFinite(retention.longTailDailyDecay) || retention.longTailDailyDecay < 0) {
+    throw new RangeError("retention.longTailDailyDecay must be finite and >= 0");
+  }
+  const { quantiles, ...uncertainty } = other.uncertainty;
+  assertQuantileValues(quantiles);
+  assertMonetization({ ...other, uncertainty });
+}
+function deriveMonetizationConfig2(scenario) {
+  assertMonetization(scenario.monetization ?? {});
+  const config = deriveMonetizationConfig(scenario);
+  assertConfig(config);
   return config;
 }
-function selfCliCommand(args, entry = currentEntry()) {
-  if (isNativeEntry(entry))
-    return [process.execPath, ...args];
-  const bun = process.argv[0] ?? "bun";
-  if (isJavaScriptEntry(entry)) {
-    const config = bundledCliConfig(entry);
-    if (config)
-      return [bun, `--config=${config}`, entry, ...args];
-    return [bun, entry, ...args];
+function assertPoint(args) {
+  assertConfig(args.config);
+  if (!Number.isFinite(args.horizonDays) || args.horizonDays < 0 || args.horizonDays > 36500) {
+    throw new RangeError("horizonDays must be finite and in 0..36500");
   }
-  const bunfigApplies = resolve2(process.cwd()) === CLI_ROOT;
-  if (entry.endsWith(".ts") && !bunfigApplies) {
-    return [bun, "--preload", "@ttsc/unplugin/bun-register", entry, ...args];
+  if (!Number.isFinite(args.progression))
+    throw new RangeError("progression must be finite");
+}
+function finiteResult(result) {
+  if (!Object.values(result).every((value) => typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value))) {
+    throw new RangeError("LTV calculation overflowed; reduce the input magnitudes");
   }
-  return [bun, entry, ...args];
+  return result;
 }
-function runSelfCli(args) {
-  const proc = Bun.spawnSync(selfCliCommand(args), {
-    cwd: process.cwd(),
-    stdout: "pipe",
-    stderr: "pipe",
-    env: process.env,
-    maxBuffer: MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2
-  });
-  return {
-    exitCode: proc.exitCode,
-    stdout: proc.stdout.toString(),
-    stderr: proc.stderr.toString()
-  };
+function estimateLtvPerUser2(args) {
+  assertPoint(args);
+  return finiteResult(estimateLtvPerUser(args));
+}
+function estimateLtvDistribution2(args) {
+  assertPoint(args);
+  if (!Number.isSafeInteger(args.draws) || args.draws < 1 || args.draws > 1e5 || args.draws * Math.max(1, Math.ceil(args.horizonDays)) > 1e7) {
+    throw new RangeError("draws must be 1..100000 and draws \xD7 ceil(horizonDays) at most 10000000");
+  }
+  if (!Number.isFinite(args.seed))
+    throw new RangeError("seed must be finite");
+  if (args.quantiles.length > 101)
+    throw new RangeError("quantiles exceed the 101 distinct percent keys");
+  assertQuantileValues(args.quantiles);
+  if (new Set(args.quantiles.map((q) => Math.round(q * 100))).size !== args.quantiles.length) {
+    throw new RangeError("quantiles must be nonempty, in 0..1 and have distinct rounded percent keys");
+  }
+  const result = estimateLtvDistribution(args);
+  finiteResult(result.mean);
+  finiteResult(result.quantiles);
+  return result;
 }
-var CLI_ROOT, MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2;
-var init_selfCli = __esm(() => {
-  CLI_ROOT = resolve2(import.meta.dir, "../..");
-  MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2 = 8 * 1024 * 1024;
+var init_public = __esm(() => {
+  init_validate();
+  init_uncertainty();
 });
 
-// src/io/outputMeta.ts
-import { dirname as dirname4, resolve as resolve3 } from "path";
-function repoRoot() {
-  if (isBundledCliProcess())
-    return resolve3(dirname4(Bun.main), "../..");
-  return resolve3(import.meta.dir, "../../..");
+// ../core/dist/ltv/cohort.js
+function wilsonInterval(activeUsers, users) {
+  const rate = activeUsers / users;
+  const z2 = 1.959963984540054 ** 2;
+  const denominator = 1 + z2 / users;
+  const center = (rate + z2 / (2 * users)) / denominator;
+  const radius = Math.sqrt(z2 * (rate * (1 - rate) / users + z2 / (4 * users * users))) / denominator;
+  return { min: activeUsers === 0 ? 0 : Math.max(0, center - radius), max: activeUsers === users ? 1 : Math.min(1, center + radius) };
 }
-function stableStringify(value) {
-  if (value === null || typeof value !== "object") {
-    return JSON.stringify(value);
+function observeCohort(rows, observedThroughDay) {
+  if (!Number.isSafeInteger(observedThroughDay) || observedThroughDay < 0)
+    throw new Error("observed-through-day must be a nonnegative safe integer");
+  if (!Array.isArray(rows) || rows.length === 0)
+    throw new Error("Observed cohort requires at least one install record");
+  const users = new Map;
+  for (const row of rows) {
+    if (!row || typeof row.userId !== "string" || !row.userId.trim() || !Number.isSafeInteger(row.day) || row.day < 0 || row.day > observedThroughDay) {
+      throw new Error("Observed cohort requires a user ID and integer days within observed-through-day");
+    }
+    if (![row.iapRevenue, row.adRevenue, row.acquisitionCost].every((v) => v === undefined || typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v) && v >= 0)) {
+      throw new Error("Observed cohort revenue and acquisition costs must be finite and nonnegative");
+    }
+    if (row.active !== undefined && typeof row.active !== "boolean")
+      throw new Error("Observed cohort active must be boolean");
+    const user = users.get(row.userId) ?? { days: new Set, active: new Set };
+    if (user.days.has(row.day))
+      throw new Error("Observed cohort requires one aggregated row per user and day");
+    user.days.add(row.day);
+    if (row.active ?? true)
+      user.active.add(row.day);
+    users.set(row.userId, user);
   }
-  if (Array.isArray(value)) {
-    return `[${value.map((x) => stableStringify(x)).join(",")}]`;
+  for (const user of users.values()) {
+    if (!user.days.has(0))
+      throw new Error("Observed cohort requires a day 0 install record for every user, including inactive users");
   }
-  const entries = Object.entries(value).sort(([a], [b]) => a < b ? -1 : a > b ? 1 : 0);
-  return `{${entries.map(([k, v]) => `${JSON.stringify(k)}:${stableStringify(v)}`).join(",")}}`;
+  const n = users.size;
+  const observation = {
+    observedThroughDay,
+    users: n,
+    retention: RETENTION_DAYS.map((day) => {
+      if (day > observedThroughDay)
+        return { day, status: "not-observed", users: n, activeUsers: null, rate: null, interval95: null };
+      const activeUsers = [...users.values()].filter((user) => user.active.has(day)).length;
+      const rate = activeUsers / n;
+      return { day, status: "observed", users: n, activeUsers, rate, interval95: wilsonInterval(activeUsers, n) };
+    })
+  };
+  assertCohortObservation(observation);
+  return observation;
 }
-function sha256(value) {
-  return sha256Hex(value);
+function object2(value) {
+  return typeof value === "object" && value !== null && !Array.isArray(value);
 }
-function resolveGitSha() {
-  if (hasResolvedGitSha)
-    return cachedGitSha ?? UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
-  hasResolvedGitSha = true;
-  const envSha = process.env.GITHUB_SHA?.trim();
-  if (envSha) {
-    cachedGitSha = envSha;
-    return cachedGitSha;
+function assertCohortObservation(observation) {
+  if (!object2(observation) || typeof observation.users !== "number" || !Number.isSafeInteger(observation.users) || observation.users < 1 || typeof observation.observedThroughDay !== "number" || !Number.isSafeInteger(observation.observedThroughDay) || observation.observedThroughDay < 0) {
+    throw new Error("Invalid cohort population or observation cutoff");
   }
-  try {
-    cachedGitSha = runText(["git", "rev-parse", "--short", "HEAD"], {
-      cwd: REPO_ROOT,
-      env: process.env
-    }).trim();
-  } catch {
-    cachedGitSha = UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
+  if (!Array.isArray(observation.retention) || observation.retention.length !== RETENTION_DAYS.length)
+    throw new Error("Cohort retention must contain D1, D7, D30 and D90");
+  for (const [index, value] of observation.retention.entries()) {
+    const point = value;
+    if (!object2(point) || typeof point.day !== "number" || point.day !== RETENTION_DAYS[index] || point.users !== observation.users)
+      throw new Error("Cohort retention days and population must match the observation");
+    const observed = point.day <= observation.observedThroughDay;
+    if (point.status !== (observed ? "observed" : "not-observed"))
+      throw new Error("Cohort retention status must match the observation cutoff");
+    if (!observed) {
+      if (point.activeUsers !== null || point.rate !== null || point.interval95 !== null)
+        throw new Error("Future retention must remain unobserved");
+      continue;
+    }
+    if (typeof point.activeUsers !== "number" || !Number.isSafeInteger(point.activeUsers) || point.activeUsers < 0 || point.activeUsers > observation.users || point.rate !== point.activeUsers / observation.users) {
+      throw new Error("Retained users and retention rate must match the installed population");
+    }
+    const interval = point.interval95;
+    if (typeof point.rate !== "number" || !object2(interval) || typeof interval.min !== "number" || typeof interval.max !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(interval.min) || !Number.isFinite(interval.max) || interval.min < 0 || interval.max > 1 || interval.min > point.rate || interval.max < point.rate) {
+      throw new Error("Retention confidence interval must be finite and contain the observed rate");
+    }
+    const expected = wilsonInterval(point.activeUsers, observation.users);
+    if (interval.min !== expected.min || interval.max !== expected.max) {
+      throw new Error("Retention confidence interval must match the Wilson 95% bounds for the observed population");
+    }
   }
-  return cachedGitSha ?? UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
-}
-function hashContent(value) {
-  return sha256(stableStringify(value));
 }
-function deriveDeterministicSeed(value) {
-  const digest = hashContent(value);
-  return Number.parseInt(digest.slice(0, 8), 16) >>> 0;
+function observedRetentionRates(observation) {
+  assertCohortObservation(observation);
+  const rates = {};
+  for (const row of observation.retention) {
+    if (row.rate !== null)
+      rates[`d${row.day}`] = row.rate;
+  }
+  return rates;
 }
-function deriveDeterministicRunId(args) {
-  const suffix = hashContent({
-    command: args.command,
-    seed: args.seed,
-    scope: args.scope ?? null
-  }).slice(0, 8);
-  return `${args.command}-${args.seed.toString(36)}-${suffix}`;
+function assertRetentionAssumptions(assumptions) {
+  if (!object2(assumptions))
+    throw new RangeError("Retention assumptions must be an object");
+  for (const day of RETENTION_DAYS) {
+    const rate = assumptions[`d${day}`];
+    if (rate !== undefined && (typeof rate !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(rate) || rate < 0 || rate > 1)) {
+      throw new RangeError(`Retention assumption d${day} must be finite and in 0..1`);
+    }
+  }
 }
-function outputSchemaRefForCommand(command) {
-  return OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF[command];
+function planRetentionPatch(observation, assumptions = {}) {
+  assertRetentionAssumptions(assumptions);
+  const rates = observedRetentionRates(observation);
+  if (Object.keys(rates).length === 0)
+    return { status: "unavailable", retention: {}, warnings: ["No retention day has been fully observed."] };
+  const merged = { ...assumptions, ...rates };
+  const warnings = [];
+  for (const day of RETENTION_DAYS) {
+    if (merged[`d${day}`] === undefined)
+      warnings.push(`Unobserved D${day} has no explicit retained assumption. An LTV default could conflict with the observations; supply monetization.retention.d${day} in the scenario or observe this day before applying a patch.`);
+  }
+  let previous;
+  for (const day of RETENTION_DAYS) {
+    const rate = merged[`d${day}`];
+    if (rate === undefined)
+      continue;
+    if (previous && previous.rate < rate)
+      warnings.push(`D${previous.day}=${previous.rate} is below D${day}=${rate}. LTV requires d1 >= d7 >= d30 >= d90; review observations and retained assumptions before applying a patch.`);
+    previous = { day, rate };
+  }
+  return warnings.length ? { status: "requires-review", retention: {}, warnings } : { status: "ready", retention: rates, warnings };
 }
-function buildOutputMeta(args) {
-  const scenarioHash = (() => {
-    if (args.scenario !== undefined)
-      return hashContent(args.scenario);
-    if (args.scenarios) {
-      const out = {};
-      for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(args.scenarios)) {
-        out[k] = hashContent(v);
-      }
-      return out;
-    }
-    return;
-  })();
-  return {
-    command: args.command,
-    generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
-    contractVersion: OUTPUT_CONTRACT_VERSION,
-    schemaRef: args.schemaRef ?? outputSchemaRefForCommand(args.command),
-    cliVersion,
-    gitSha: resolveGitSha(),
-    runId: args.runId,
-    seed: args.seed,
-    scenarioPath: args.scenarioPath,
-    scenarioHash,
-    tuneSpecHash: args.tuneSpec !== undefined ? hashContent(args.tuneSpec) : undefined,
-    telemetryHash: args.telemetry !== undefined ? hashContent(args.telemetry) : undefined,
-    pluginDigest: args.pluginDigest ?? {},
-    ...args.effectiveRunHash !== undefined ? { effectiveRunHash: args.effectiveRunHash } : {},
-    ...args.effectiveEngine !== undefined ? { effectiveEngine: args.effectiveEngine } : {},
-    ...args.stageScope !== undefined ? { stageScope: args.stageScope } : {}
-  };
+function compareRetention(observation, assumptions) {
+  assertCohortObservation(observation);
+  assertRetentionAssumptions(assumptions);
+  return observation.retention.map((row) => {
+    const assumption = assumptions[`d${row.day}`] ?? null;
+    return {
+      day: row.day,
+      assumption,
+      observed: row.rate,
+      differencePercentagePoints: row.rate === null || assumption === null ? null : (row.rate - assumption) * 100,
+      status: row.rate === null ? "not-observed" : assumption === null ? "unconfigured" : "compared"
+    };
+  });
 }
-var import_package, REPO_ROOT, OUTPUT_CONTRACT_VERSION = "1.4.0", UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA = "unknown", OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF, cachedGitSha, hasResolvedGitSha = false, cliVersion;
-var init_outputMeta = __esm(() => {
-  init_bun();
-  init_selfCli();
-  import_package = __toESM(require_package(), 1);
-  REPO_ROOT = repoRoot();
-  OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF = {
-    simulate: "docs/schemas/simulate.output.schema.json",
-    eta: "docs/schemas/eta.output.schema.json",
-    compare: "docs/schemas/compare.output.schema.json",
-    doctor: "docs/schemas/doctor.output.schema.json",
-    evaluate: "docs/schemas/evaluate.output.schema.json",
-    "judge.jev": "docs/schemas/jev.judge.output.schema.json",
-    "execution.batch": "docs/worker-execution.md",
-    experience: "docs/schemas/experience.output.schema.json",
-    "setup.completions": "docs/schemas/setup.output.schema.json",
-    "setup.plugin-trust": "docs/schemas/setup.output.schema.json",
-    tune: "docs/schemas/tune.output.schema.json",
-    ltv: "docs/schemas/ltv.output.schema.json",
-    calibrate: "docs/schemas/calibrate.output.schema.json",
-    "kpi.regress": "docs/schemas/kpi.regress.output.schema.json",
-    "replay.verify": "docs/schemas/replay.verify.output.schema.json"
-  };
-  cliVersion = import_package.default.version ?? "0.0.0";
+var RETENTION_DAYS;
+var init_cohort = __esm(() => {
+  RETENTION_DAYS = Object.freeze([1, 7, 30, 90]);
 });
 
-// ../../node_modules/.bun/yaml@2.9.1/node_modules/yaml/dist/nodes/identity.js
-var require_identity = __commonJS(function(exports) {
-  var ALIAS = Symbol.for("yaml.alias");
-  var DOC = Symbol.for("yaml.document");
-  var MAP = Symbol.for("yaml.map");
-  var PAIR = Symbol.for("yaml.pair");
-  var SCALAR = Symbol.for("yaml.scalar");
-  var SEQ = Symbol.for("yaml.seq");
-  var NODE_TYPE = Symbol.for("yaml.node.type");
-  var isAlias = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === ALIAS;
-  var isDocument = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === DOC;
-  var isMap = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === MAP;
-  var isPair = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === PAIR;
-  var isScalar = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === SCALAR;
-  var isSeq = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === SEQ;
-  function isCollection(node) {
-    if (node && typeof node === "object")
-      switch (node[NODE_TYPE]) {
-        case MAP:
-        case SEQ:
-          return true;
-      }
-    return false;
-  }
-  function isNode(node) {
-    if (node && typeof node === "object")
-      switch (node[NODE_TYPE]) {
-        case ALIAS:
-        case MAP:
-        case SCALAR:
-        case SEQ:
-          return true;
-      }
-    return false;
-  }
-  var hasAnchor = (node) => (isScalar(node) || isCollection(node)) && !!node.anchor;
-  exports.ALIAS = ALIAS;
-  exports.DOC = DOC;
-  exports.MAP = MAP;
+// ../core/dist/index.js
+var init_dist2 = __esm(() => {
+  init_types();
+  init_breakInfinity2();
+  init_breakEternity2();
+  init_types5();
+  init_types6();
+  init_emitter();
+  init_tickMoney2();
+  init_suffixer();
+  init_formatMoney2();
+  init_parseMoney2();
+  init_visibilityTracker2();
+  init_moneyState();
+  init_simState();
+  init_types7();
+  init_validate();
+  init_concreteValidator();
+  init_scenarioContract();
+  init_compile2();
+  init_simulator();
+  init_advance();
+  init_step();
+  init_stepTypes();
+  init_offline();
+  init_session();
+  init_monteCarlo();
+  init_executionBackend();
+  init_integrationMatrix();
+  init_runFactory();
+  init_constraints();
+  init_observation();
+  init_types8();
+  init_contracts();
+  init_stability();
+  init_scripted();
+  init_greedy();
+  init_planner();
+  init_params();
+  init_builtins();
+  init_tuneSpec();
+  init_validate2();
+  init_objective();
+  init_params2();
+  init_builtins2();
+  init_tuner();
+  init_randomSearch();
+  init_runner();
+  init_eta();
+  init_prestigeCycle();
+  init_resetCycle();
+  init_resetOptimization();
+  init_distribution();
+  init_experiment();
+  init_sensitivity();
+  init_growthFit();
+  init_contracts2();
+  init_metrics();
+  init_registry();
+  init_analyzers();
+  init_inspect();
+  init_checks3();
+  init_judge();
+  init_flow();
+  init_jevAdvisory();
+  init_public();
+  init_cohort();
+});
+
+// src/runtime/bun.ts
+var {$ } = globalThis.Bun;
+import { dirname } from "path";
+async function readTextFile(path) {
+  return Bun.file(path).text();
+}
+async function readJsonFile(path) {
+  return Bun.file(path).json();
+}
+async function writeTextFile(path, body) {
+  try {
+    await ensureDir(dirname(path));
+    await Bun.write(path, body);
+  } catch (error) {
+    throw cliError("OUTPUT_WRITE_FAILED", `Unable to write output file: ${path}`, {
+      detail: errorDetail(error),
+      hint: "Choose a writable output path and check that its parent is a directory.",
+      cause: error
+    });
+  }
+}
+function writeStdout(body) {
+  return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
+    process.stdout.write(body, (error) => error ? reject(error) : resolve());
+  });
+}
+async function ensureDir(path) {
+  await $`mkdir -p ${path}`.quiet();
+}
+async function fileExists(path) {
+  return Bun.file(path).exists();
+}
+function sha256Hex(value) {
+  const hasher = new Bun.CryptoHasher("sha256");
+  hasher.update(value);
+  return hasher.digest("hex");
+}
+function runText(args, opts) {
+  const proc = Bun.spawnSync(args, {
+    cwd: opts?.cwd,
+    env: opts?.env,
+    stdout: "pipe",
+    stderr: "pipe",
+    maxBuffer: MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES
+  });
+  if (proc.exitCode !== 0) {
+    const stderr = proc.stderr.toString().trim();
+    const stdout = proc.stdout.toString().trim();
+    const detail = stderr || stdout || `command failed with exit code ${proc.exitCode}`;
+    throw new Error(detail);
+  }
+  return proc.stdout.toString();
+}
+var MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES;
+var init_bun = __esm(() => {
+  init_errors3();
+  MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES = 8 * 1024 * 1024;
+});
+
+// package.json
+var require_package = __commonJS(function(exports, module) {
+  module.exports = {
+    name: "@idlekit/cli",
+    version: "0.6.0",
+    description: "Bun-first idk CLI for idle game scenario validation, simulation, tuning, and reporting.",
+    license: "MIT",
+    type: "module",
+    files: [
+      "dist",
+      "README.md",
+      "LICENSE"
+    ],
+    bin: {
+      idk: "dist/main.js"
+    },
+    repository: {
+      type: "git",
+      url: "git+https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit.git",
+      directory: "packages/cli"
+    },
+    homepage: "https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit/tree/main/packages/cli#readme",
+    bugs: {
+      url: "https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit/issues"
+    },
+    keywords: [
+      "bun",
+      "idle-game",
+      "incremental-game",
+      "cli",
+      "economy-simulator",
+      "game-balancing",
+      "simulation"
+    ],
+    publishConfig: {
+      access: "public"
+    },
+    engines: {
+      bun: ">=1.4.2"
+    },
+    scripts: {
+      dev: "bun src/main.ts",
+      "dev:watch": "bun --watch src/main.ts",
+      "generate:check": "bun scripts/command-check.ts",
+      "doctor:completions": "bun scripts/command-check.ts",
+      "review:smoke": "bun scripts/review-smoke.ts",
+      build: "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --outdir dist --sourcemap",
+      "build:bin": "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --entry src/bin.ts --outdir dist/bin --targets native",
+      typecheck: "ttsc -p tsconfig.json --noEmit",
+      test: "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --outdir .test-bundle && IDLEKIT_CLI_ENTRY=.test-bundle/main.js bun test --timeout 90000 src",
+      prepack: "bun run build && cd ../.. && bun tools/package-manifest.ts prepare packages/cli",
+      postpack: "cd ../.. && bun tools/package-manifest.ts restore packages/cli"
+    },
+    dependencies: {
+      "@clack/prompts": "1.8.1",
+      "@gunshi/plugin-completion": "0.37.3",
+      "@gunshi/plugin-suggestion": "0.37.3",
+      "@idlekit/core": "0.6.0",
+      ajv: "^8.20.0",
+      gunshi: "0.37.3",
+      "proper-lockfile": "4.1.2",
+      yaml: "^2.9.1",
+      zod: "^4.6.5"
+    },
+    devDependencies: {
+      "@types/proper-lockfile": "4.1.4"
+    }
+  };
+});
+
+// src/runtime/selfCli.ts
+import { existsSync } from "fs";
+import { dirname as dirname3, resolve as resolve2 } from "path";
+function currentEntry() {
+  return Bun.main;
+}
+function isJavaScriptEntry(entry) {
+  return entry.endsWith(".js") || entry.endsWith(".mjs");
+}
+function isNativeEntry(entry) {
+  return entry.includes("$bunfs") || entry.includes("~BUN");
+}
+function isBundledCliProcess(entry = currentEntry()) {
+  return isJavaScriptEntry(entry) || isNativeEntry(entry);
+}
+function cliPackageRoot(entry = currentEntry()) {
+  if (isNativeEntry(entry))
+    return process.cwd();
+  if (isBundledCliProcess(entry))
+    return resolve2(dirname3(entry), "..");
+  return resolve2(import.meta.dir, "../..");
+}
+function bundledCliConfig(entry) {
+  const config = resolve2(dirname3(entry), "../../../tools/bundled-cli-bunfig.toml");
+  if (!existsSync(config))
+    return;
+  return config;
+}
+function selfCliCommand(args, entry = currentEntry()) {
+  if (isNativeEntry(entry))
+    return [process.execPath, ...args];
+  const bun = process.argv[0] ?? "bun";
+  if (isJavaScriptEntry(entry)) {
+    const config = bundledCliConfig(entry);
+    if (config)
+      return [bun, `--config=${config}`, entry, ...args];
+    return [bun, entry, ...args];
+  }
+  const bunfigApplies = resolve2(process.cwd()) === CLI_ROOT;
+  if (entry.endsWith(".ts") && !bunfigApplies) {
+    return [bun, "--preload", "@ttsc/unplugin/bun-register", entry, ...args];
+  }
+  return [bun, entry, ...args];
+}
+function runSelfCli(args) {
+  const proc = Bun.spawnSync(selfCliCommand(args), {
+    cwd: process.cwd(),
+    stdout: "pipe",
+    stderr: "pipe",
+    env: process.env,
+    maxBuffer: MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2
+  });
+  return {
+    exitCode: proc.exitCode,
+    stdout: proc.stdout.toString(),
+    stderr: proc.stderr.toString()
+  };
+}
+var CLI_ROOT, MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2;
+var init_selfCli = __esm(() => {
+  CLI_ROOT = resolve2(import.meta.dir, "../..");
+  MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2 = 8 * 1024 * 1024;
+});
+
+// src/io/outputMeta.ts
+import { dirname as dirname4, resolve as resolve3 } from "path";
+function repoRoot() {
+  if (isBundledCliProcess())
+    return resolve3(dirname4(Bun.main), "../..");
+  return resolve3(import.meta.dir, "../../..");
+}
+function stableStringify(value) {
+  if (value === null || typeof value !== "object") {
+    return JSON.stringify(value);
+  }
+  if (Array.isArray(value)) {
+    return `[${value.map((x) => stableStringify(x)).join(",")}]`;
+  }
+  const entries = Object.entries(value).sort(([a], [b]) => a < b ? -1 : a > b ? 1 : 0);
+  return `{${entries.map(([k, v]) => `${JSON.stringify(k)}:${stableStringify(v)}`).join(",")}}`;
+}
+function sha256(value) {
+  return sha256Hex(value);
+}
+function resolveGitSha() {
+  if (hasResolvedGitSha)
+    return cachedGitSha ?? UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
+  hasResolvedGitSha = true;
+  const envSha = process.env.GITHUB_SHA?.trim();
+  if (envSha) {
+    cachedGitSha = envSha;
+    return cachedGitSha;
+  }
+  try {
+    cachedGitSha = runText(["git", "rev-parse", "--short", "HEAD"], {
+      cwd: REPO_ROOT,
+      env: process.env
+    }).trim();
+  } catch {
+    cachedGitSha = UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
+  }
+  return cachedGitSha ?? UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
+}
+function hashContent(value) {
+  return sha256(stableStringify(value));
+}
+function deriveDeterministicSeed(value) {
+  const digest = hashContent(value);
+  return Number.parseInt(digest.slice(0, 8), 16) >>> 0;
+}
+function deriveDeterministicRunId(args) {
+  const suffix = hashContent({
+    command: args.command,
+    seed: args.seed,
+    scope: args.scope ?? null
+  }).slice(0, 8);
+  return `${args.command}-${args.seed.toString(36)}-${suffix}`;
+}
+function outputSchemaRefForCommand(command) {
+  return OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF[command];
+}
+function buildOutputMeta(args) {
+  const scenarioHash = (() => {
+    if (args.scenario !== undefined)
+      return hashContent(args.scenario);
+    if (args.scenarios) {
+      const out = {};
+      for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(args.scenarios)) {
+        out[k] = hashContent(v);
+      }
+      return out;
+    }
+    return;
+  })();
+  return {
+    command: args.command,
+    generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
+    contractVersion: OUTPUT_CONTRACT_VERSION,
+    schemaRef: args.schemaRef ?? outputSchemaRefForCommand(args.command),
+    cliVersion,
+    gitSha: resolveGitSha(),
+    runId: args.runId,
+    seed: args.seed,
+    scenarioPath: args.scenarioPath,
+    scenarioHash,
+    tuneSpecHash: args.tuneSpec !== undefined ? hashContent(args.tuneSpec) : undefined,
+    telemetryHash: args.telemetry !== undefined ? hashContent(args.telemetry) : undefined,
+    pluginDigest: args.pluginDigest ?? {},
+    ...args.effectiveRunHash !== undefined ? { effectiveRunHash: args.effectiveRunHash } : {},
+    ...args.effectiveEngine !== undefined ? { effectiveEngine: args.effectiveEngine } : {},
+    ...args.stageScope !== undefined ? { stageScope: args.stageScope } : {}
+  };
+}
+var import_package, REPO_ROOT, OUTPUT_CONTRACT_VERSION = "1.4.0", UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA = "unknown", OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF, cachedGitSha, hasResolvedGitSha = false, cliVersion;
+var init_outputMeta = __esm(() => {
+  init_bun();
+  init_selfCli();
+  import_package = __toESM(require_package(), 1);
+  REPO_ROOT = repoRoot();
+  OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF = {
+    simulate: "docs/schemas/simulate.output.schema.json",
+    eta: "docs/schemas/eta.output.schema.json",
+    compare: "docs/schemas/compare.output.schema.json",
+    doctor: "docs/schemas/doctor.output.schema.json",
+    evaluate: "docs/schemas/evaluate.output.schema.json",
+    "judge.jev": "docs/schemas/jev.judge.output.schema.json",
+    "execution.batch": "docs/worker-execution.md",
+    experience: "docs/schemas/experience.output.schema.json",
+    "setup.completions": "docs/schemas/setup.output.schema.json",
+    "setup.plugin-trust": "docs/schemas/setup.output.schema.json",
+    tune: "docs/schemas/tune.output.schema.json",
+    ltv: "docs/schemas/ltv.output.schema.json",
+    calibrate: "docs/schemas/calibrate.output.schema.json",
+    "kpi.regress": "docs/schemas/kpi.regress.output.schema.json",
+    "replay.verify": "docs/schemas/replay.verify.output.schema.json"
+  };
+  cliVersion = import_package.default.version ?? "0.0.0";
+});
+
+// ../../node_modules/.bun/yaml@2.9.1/node_modules/yaml/dist/nodes/identity.js
+var require_identity = __commonJS(function(exports) {
+  var ALIAS = Symbol.for("yaml.alias");
+  var DOC = Symbol.for("yaml.document");
+  var MAP = Symbol.for("yaml.map");
+  var PAIR = Symbol.for("yaml.pair");
+  var SCALAR = Symbol.for("yaml.scalar");
+  var SEQ = Symbol.for("yaml.seq");
+  var NODE_TYPE = Symbol.for("yaml.node.type");
+  var isAlias = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === ALIAS;
+  var isDocument = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === DOC;
+  var isMap = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === MAP;
+  var isPair = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === PAIR;
+  var isScalar = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === SCALAR;
+  var isSeq = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === SEQ;
+  function isCollection(node) {
+    if (node && typeof node === "object")
+      switch (node[NODE_TYPE]) {
+        case MAP:
+        case SEQ:
+          return true;
+      }
+    return false;
+  }
+  function isNode(node) {
+    if (node && typeof node === "object")
+      switch (node[NODE_TYPE]) {
+        case ALIAS:
+        case MAP:
+        case SCALAR:
+        case SEQ:
+          return true;
+      }
+    return false;
+  }
+  var hasAnchor = (node) => (isScalar(node) || isCollection(node)) && !!node.anchor;
+  exports.ALIAS = ALIAS;
+  exports.DOC = DOC;
+  exports.MAP = MAP;
   exports.NODE_TYPE = NODE_TYPE;
   exports.PAIR = PAIR;
   exports.SCALAR = SCALAR;
@@ -34562,8 +35213,8 @@ function ownedCount(state) {
 }
 function finiteLinearAmount(E, value, label) {
   if (!E.isFinite(value)) {
-    throw cliError("SCENARIO_INVALID", `linear ${label} exceeds the selected engine's finite range. Use --engine breakInfinity with simulate/evaluate/experience/ltv for a large economy, or reduce the inputs.`, {
-      hint: "Other commands, including report/compare/tune, use the number engine; reduce their inputs."
+    throw cliError("SCENARIO_INVALID", `linear ${label} exceeds the selected engine's finite range. Use --engine breakInfinity with simulate/evaluate/experience/ltv/compare/tune/balance for a large economy, or reduce the inputs.`, {
+      hint: "The report command uses the number engine; reduce its inputs."
     });
   }
   return value;
@@ -36087,767 +36738,400 @@ var inspect_default = defineCommand({
     if (skipping) {
       try {
         resolveStrategySelection({ scenario, strategyRegistry: loaded.strategyRegistry, overrideId: flags.strategy });
-      } catch {
-        strategyUnchecked = true;
-      }
-    }
-    if (strategyUnchecked && strategyId !== undefined) {
-      const report = buildScenarioInspect({
-        ...base,
-        decimals: strategyDecimals(flags.strategy?.trim() ? [] : [scenario.strategy?.params]),
-        engine: {
-          effectiveId: engine.effectiveId,
-          source: engine.source,
-          accepted: true,
-          ...engine.scenarioEngine ? { scenarioEngine: engine.scenarioEngine } : {}
-        },
-        stages: [],
-        planner: null,
-        plugins: { ...base.plugins, unresolvedStrategy: strategyId }
-      });
-      await emit2(flags, report, scenarioPath, scenario, pluginDigest);
-      return;
-    }
-    const prepared = planResolvedRun(planArgs);
-    const simulate = prepared.planFor("simulate");
-    const experience = prepared.planFor("experience");
-    const ltv = prepared.planFor("ltv");
-    const plans = [simulate, experience, ltv];
-    const report = buildScenarioInspect({
-      ...base,
-      decimals: strategyDecimals(plans.map((plan) => plan.strategy.params)),
-      engine: {
-        effectiveId: prepared.engine.effectiveId,
-        source: prepared.engine.source,
-        accepted: true,
-        ...prepared.engine.scenarioEngine ? { scenarioEngine: prepared.engine.scenarioEngine } : {}
-      },
-      stages: plans.map((plan) => stageInput(plan, scenario)),
-      planner: skipping ? null : plannerParams(simulate, pluginStrategyIds)
-    });
-    await emit2(flags, report, scenarioPath, scenario, pluginDigest);
-  }
-});
-async function emit2(flags, report, scenarioPath, scenario, pluginDigest) {
-  if (flags.format === "md") {
-    const body = renderInspectMarkdown(report);
-    if (!flags.out) {
-      console.log(body);
-      return;
-    }
-  }
-  await writeOutput({
-    format: flags.format === "md" ? "md" : "json",
-    outPath: flags.out,
-    data: flags.format === "md" ? renderInspectMarkdown(report) : report,
-    meta: flags.format === "json" ? buildOutputMeta({ command: "inspect", scenarioPath, scenario, pluginDigest }) : undefined
-  });
-}
-
-// src/commands/judge.ts
-init_zod();
-init_errors3();
-init_outputMeta();
-init_bun();
-import { closeSync as closeSync2, lstatSync as lstatSync2, openSync as openSync2, readlinkSync as readlinkSync2, realpathSync as realpathSync3, statSync, unlinkSync as unlinkSync2 } from "fs";
-import { basename as basename3, dirname as dirname6, resolve as resolve7 } from "path";
-
-// src/lib/evaluation/input.ts
-init_dist2();
-function readJudgeInputs(artifactRaw, rubricRaw) {
-  const artifact = validateAnalysisArtifact(artifactRaw);
-  const rubric = parseJudgeRubric(rubricRaw);
-  const issues = [];
-  if (!artifact.success) {
-    issues.push(...artifact.errors.map((error) => `artifact ${error.path} ${error.expected}`));
-  }
-  if (!rubric.ok)
-    issues.push(...rubric.issues);
-  if (!artifact.success || !rubric.ok)
-    return { ok: false, issues };
-  return { ok: true, artifact: artifact.data, rubric: rubric.rubric };
-}
-
-// src/lib/evaluation/rules.ts
-init_dist2();
-function evaluateRules(input) {
-  const judged = judgeArtifact(input.artifact, input.rubric);
-  if (!judged.ok) {
-    throw new Error(judged.issues.join("; "));
-  }
-  return judged.report;
-}
-
-// src/commands/judge.ts
-function canonical(path, depth = 0) {
-  const absolute = resolve7(path);
-  try {
-    return realpathSync3(absolute);
-  } catch {
-    try {
-      if (depth < 32 && lstatSync2(absolute).isSymbolicLink()) {
-        return canonical(resolve7(dirname6(absolute), readlinkSync2(absolute)), depth + 1);
-      }
-    } catch {}
-    const parent = dirname6(absolute);
-    return parent === absolute ? absolute : resolve7(canonical(parent, depth), basename3(absolute));
-  }
-}
-function existingDirectory(path) {
-  let directory = dirname6(path);
-  for (;; ) {
-    try {
-      const stat = statSync(directory);
-      return stat.isDirectory() ? { path: directory, dev: stat.dev, ino: stat.ino } : null;
-    } catch {
-      const parent = dirname6(directory);
-      if (parent === directory)
-        return null;
-      directory = parent;
-    }
-  }
-}
-function ignoresCase(directory) {
-  const name = `.idlekit-case-${crypto.randomUUID()}`;
-  const path = resolve7(directory, name);
-  let fd;
-  try {
-    fd = openSync2(path, "wx");
-    const original = statSync(path);
-    const folded = statSync(resolve7(directory, name.toUpperCase()));
-    return original.dev === folded.dev && original.ino === folded.ino;
-  } catch {
-    return fd === undefined && process.platform === "win32";
-  } finally {
-    if (fd !== undefined) {
-      try {
-        closeSync2(fd);
-      } finally {
-        unlinkSync2(path);
-      }
-    }
-  }
-}
-function sameFile(left, right) {
-  const aPath = canonical(left);
-  const bPath = canonical(right);
-  if (aPath === bPath)
-    return true;
-  try {
-    const a = statSync(left);
-    const b = statSync(right);
-    return a.dev === b.dev && a.ino === b.ino;
-  } catch {
-    if (aPath.toLowerCase() !== bPath.toLowerCase())
-      return false;
-    const a = existingDirectory(aPath);
-    const b = existingDirectory(bPath);
-    return a !== null && b !== null && a.dev === b.dev && a.ino === b.ino && ignoresCase(a.path);
-  }
-}
-function ancestorFile(parent, child) {
-  let directory = dirname6(canonical(child));
-  for (;; ) {
-    if (sameFile(parent, directory))
-      return true;
-    const next = dirname6(directory);
-    if (next === directory)
-      return false;
-    directory = next;
-  }
-}
-function requireFileTarget(path, flag) {
-  const target = canonical(path);
-  let current = target;
-  for (;; ) {
-    let stat;
-    try {
-      stat = statSync(current);
-    } catch (error) {
-      if (error.code !== "ENOENT") {
-        throw usageError(`--${flag} requires a regular file target with directory parents.`);
-      }
-    }
-    if (stat) {
-      const valid = current === target ? stat.isFile() : stat.isDirectory();
-      if (!valid)
-        throw usageError(`--${flag} requires a regular file target with directory parents.`);
-      return;
-    }
-    const parent = dirname6(current);
-    if (parent === current)
-      throw usageError(`--${flag} has no usable parent directory.`);
-    current = parent;
-  }
-}
-function renderJudgeMarkdown(report) {
-  const lines = [
-    "# Rules judge",
-    "",
-    "This is not doctor. The numerical verdict is not rewritten.",
-    "",
-    `- Provider: ${report.provider}`,
-    `- Rubric: ${report.rubricVersion}`,
-    `- Digest: ${report.advisoryDigest}`,
-    "",
-    "## Numerical",
-    ""
-  ];
-  for (const result of report.numerical.results) {
-    lines.push(`- ${result.metricId}: ${result.verdict} ${result.evidence.value ?? "none"} ${result.evidence.unit}`);
-  }
-  lines.push("", "## Estimates", "");
-  if (report.estimatedObservations.length === 0)
-    lines.push("None.");
-  for (const estimate of report.estimatedObservations) {
-    lines.push(`- ${estimate.metricId}: ${estimate.value ?? "none"}`);
-  }
-  lines.push("", "## Semantic", "");
-  for (const diagnostic of report.diagnostics) {
-    lines.push(`- ${diagnostic.status} ${diagnostic.recommendationId}: ${diagnostic.text.en}`);
-  }
-  return lines.join(`
-`);
-}
-function judgeCsvRows(report) {
-  return report.numerical.results.map((result, index) => {
-    const diagnostic = report.diagnostics[index];
-    return {
-      id: result.id,
-      metricId: result.metricId,
-      verdict: result.verdict,
-      severity: result.severity,
-      evidenceStatus: result.evidence.status,
-      value: result.evidence.value,
-      unit: result.evidence.unit,
-      operator: result.evidence.operator,
-      threshold: result.evidence.threshold,
-      upperThreshold: result.evidence.upperThreshold,
-      diagnosticStatus: diagnostic?.status ?? null,
-      recommendationId: diagnostic?.recommendationId ?? null
-    };
-  });
-}
-async function runJudge(flags, analysisPath, hooks) {
-  const requestedModel = (flags.model ?? "jev-latest").trim();
-  if (flags.provider === "jev" && requestedModel.length === 0) {
-    throw usageError("--model requires a nonempty model name.");
-  }
-  if (flags.provider === "jev" && flags.format === "csv") {
-    throw usageError("--provider jev writes json or md. csv cannot hold the rules report and the advisory together.");
-  }
-  if (flags.provider === "jev" && flags.cache) {
-    if (flags.out && sameFile(flags.cache, flags.out)) {
-      throw usageError("--cache and --out name the same file. Give the Jev cache its own path.");
-    }
-    if (flags.out && (ancestorFile(flags.cache, flags.out) || ancestorFile(flags.out, flags.cache))) {
-      throw usageError("--cache and --out cannot be ancestor paths. Give each file a separate target.");
+      } catch {
+        strategyUnchecked = true;
+      }
     }
-    if (sameFile(flags.cache, analysisPath) || sameFile(flags.cache, flags.rubric)) {
-      throw usageError("--cache names an input file. Give the Jev cache its own path.");
+    if (strategyUnchecked && strategyId !== undefined) {
+      const report = buildScenarioInspect({
+        ...base,
+        decimals: strategyDecimals(flags.strategy?.trim() ? [] : [scenario.strategy?.params]),
+        engine: {
+          effectiveId: engine.effectiveId,
+          source: engine.source,
+          accepted: true,
+          ...engine.scenarioEngine ? { scenarioEngine: engine.scenarioEngine } : {}
+        },
+        stages: [],
+        planner: null,
+        plugins: { ...base.plugins, unresolvedStrategy: strategyId }
+      });
+      await emit2(flags, report, scenarioPath, scenario, pluginDigest);
+      return;
     }
-  }
-  if (flags.provider === "jev") {
-    if (flags.cache)
-      requireFileTarget(flags.cache, "cache");
-    if (flags.out)
-      requireFileTarget(flags.out, "out");
-  }
-  let artifactRaw;
-  let rubricRaw;
-  try {
-    artifactRaw = await readJsonFile(analysisPath);
-    rubricRaw = await readJsonFile(flags.rubric);
-  } catch (error) {
-    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`);
-  }
-  const parsed = readJudgeInputs(artifactRaw, rubricRaw);
-  if (!parsed.ok) {
-    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${parsed.issues.join("; ")}`);
-  }
-  let report;
-  try {
-    report = evaluateRules(parsed);
-  } catch (error) {
-    const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);
-    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${message}`);
-  }
-  if (flags.provider === "rules") {
-    await writeOutput({
-      format: flags.format,
-      outPath: flags.out,
-      data: flags.format === "md" ? renderJudgeMarkdown(report) : flags.format === "csv" ? judgeCsvRows(report) : report
+    const prepared = planResolvedRun(planArgs);
+    const simulate = prepared.planFor("simulate");
+    const experience = prepared.planFor("experience");
+    const ltv = prepared.planFor("ltv");
+    const plans = [simulate, experience, ltv];
+    const report = buildScenarioInspect({
+      ...base,
+      decimals: strategyDecimals(plans.map((plan) => plan.strategy.params)),
+      engine: {
+        effectiveId: prepared.engine.effectiveId,
+        source: prepared.engine.source,
+        accepted: true,
+        ...prepared.engine.scenarioEngine ? { scenarioEngine: prepared.engine.scenarioEngine } : {}
+      },
+      stages: plans.map((plan) => stageInput(plan, scenario)),
+      planner: skipping ? null : plannerParams(simulate, pluginStrategyIds)
     });
-    return report;
-  }
-  await Promise.resolve().then(() => init_jev());
-  const key = (hooks?.env ?? process.env).TYPESAFE_API_KEY?.trim() ?? "";
-  if (!isSafeJevReport(report, key)) {
-    throw usageError("Unsafe Jev numerical report metadata. Remove secrets and local paths from the judge inputs.");
+    await emit2(flags, report, scenarioPath, scenario, pluginDigest);
   }
-  const advisory = await adviseWithJev({
-    artifact: parsed.artifact,
-    rubric: parsed.rubric,
-    numerical: report,
-    requestedModel,
-    dryRun: flags["dry-run"] === true,
-    cachePath: flags.cache,
-    transport: hooks?.transport,
-    env: hooks?.env,
-    nowMs: hooks?.nowMs,
-    sleep: hooks?.sleep
-  });
-  const bundle = { numericalReport: report, advisory };
+});
+async function emit2(flags, report, scenarioPath, scenario, pluginDigest) {
   if (flags.format === "md") {
-    const markdown = [
-      renderJudgeMarkdown(report),
-      `- Jev: ${advisory.status} ${advisory.reason}`,
-      `- Endpoint: ${advisory.endpoint}`,
-      `- Planned requests: ${advisory.plannedRequests}`,
-      "",
-      "## Jev answers",
-      "",
-      ...advisory.answers.map((answer) => {
-        const value = answer.noul ?? answer.choice ?? answer.score ?? "none";
-        const confidence = answer.confidence === null ? "" : `; confidence=${answer.confidence}`;
-        return `- ${answer.id}: ${answer.type}=${value}${confidence}; ${answer.disposition}`;
-      }),
-      ...advisory.answers.length === 0 ? ["None."] : []
-    ].join(`
-`);
-    if (flags.out) {
-      const outPath = resolve7(flags.out);
-      await writeTextFile(outPath, `${markdown}
-`);
-      console.log(`Wrote md output to ${outPath}`);
-    } else {
-      await writeStdout(`${markdown}
-`);
+    const body = renderInspectMarkdown(report);
+    if (!flags.out) {
+      console.log(body);
+      return;
     }
-    return bundle;
   }
   await writeOutput({
-    format: flags.format,
+    format: flags.format === "md" ? "md" : "json",
     outPath: flags.out,
-    data: bundle,
-    meta: buildOutputMeta({
-      command: "judge",
-      pluginDigest: {},
-      schemaRef: outputSchemaRefForCommand("judge.jev")
-    })
+    data: flags.format === "md" ? renderInspectMarkdown(report) : report,
+    meta: flags.format === "json" ? buildOutputMeta({ command: "inspect", scenarioPath, scenario, pluginDigest }) : undefined
   });
-  return bundle;
 }
-var judge_default = defineCommand({
-  name: "judge",
-  description: "Advise on an analysis artifact with a versioned rules rubric",
-  options: {
-    rubric: option(string2(), { description: "Versioned rubric JSON path" }),
-    provider: option(_enum(["rules", "jev"]).default("rules"), {
-      description: "Advisory provider. rules is local. jev is an opt-in network provider."
-    }),
-    "dry-run": option(exports_coerce.boolean().default(false), {
-      description: "Show the Jev request plan without calling the network"
-    }),
-    model: option(string2().trim().min(1).default("jev-latest"), {
-      description: "Requested Jev model. jev-latest is an alias, not a pinned id."
-    }),
-    cache: option(string2().optional(), { description: "Optional Jev advisory cache path" }),
-    out: option(string2().optional(), { description: "Output path" }),
-    format: option(_enum(["json", "md", "csv"]).default("json"), { description: "Output format" })
-  },
-  async handler({ flags, positional }) {
-    const analysisPath = positional[0];
-    if (!analysisPath) {
-      throw usageError("Usage: idk judge <analysis.json> --rubric <rubric.json> --provider rules");
-    }
-    await runJudge(flags, analysisPath);
-  }
-});
 
-// src/commands/calibrate.ts
+// src/commands/judge.ts
 init_zod();
 init_errors3();
 init_outputMeta();
-import { extname as extname3, resolve as resolve8 } from "path";
+init_bun();
+import { closeSync as closeSync2, lstatSync as lstatSync2, openSync as openSync2, readlinkSync as readlinkSync2, realpathSync as realpathSync3, statSync, unlinkSync as unlinkSync2 } from "fs";
+import { basename as basename3, dirname as dirname6, resolve as resolve7 } from "path";
 
-// src/lib/ltvCalibration.ts
-function assertFiniteNumbers(value, path) {
-  if (typeof value === "number" && !Number.isFinite(value)) {
-    throw new RangeError(`Calibration requires finite numbers; numeric overflow at ${path}`);
-  }
-  if (typeof value === "object" && value !== null) {
-    for (const [key, child] of Object.entries(value))
-      assertFiniteNumbers(child, `${path}.${key}`);
-  }
-}
-function clamp012(v) {
-  if (v < 0)
-    return 0;
-  if (v > 1)
-    return 1;
-  return v;
-}
-function clampCorrelation(v) {
-  if (!Number.isFinite(v))
-    return 0;
-  if (v < -1)
-    return -1;
-  if (v > 1)
-    return 1;
-  return v;
-}
-function mean(values) {
-  if (values.length === 0)
-    return 0;
-  return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length;
-}
-function variance(values) {
-  if (values.length === 0)
-    return 0;
-  const m = mean(values);
-  let acc = 0;
-  for (const v of values) {
-    const d = v - m;
-    acc += d * d;
+// src/lib/evaluation/input.ts
+init_dist2();
+function readJudgeInputs(artifactRaw, rubricRaw) {
+  const artifact = validateAnalysisArtifact(artifactRaw);
+  const rubric = parseJudgeRubric(rubricRaw);
+  const issues = [];
+  if (!artifact.success) {
+    issues.push(...artifact.errors.map((error) => `artifact ${error.path} ${error.expected}`));
   }
-  return acc / values.length;
+  if (!rubric.ok)
+    issues.push(...rubric.issues);
+  if (!artifact.success || !rubric.ok)
+    return { ok: false, issues };
+  return { ok: true, artifact: artifact.data, rubric: rubric.rubric };
 }
-function estimateCorrelation(x, y) {
-  const n = Math.min(x.length, y.length);
-  if (n < 3) {
-    return {
-      raw: 0,
-      value: 0,
-      confidence: 0,
-      shrinkage: 0,
-      sampleSize: n,
-      varianceX: 0,
-      varianceY: 0
-    };
-  }
-  const sx = x.slice(0, n);
-  const sy = y.slice(0, n);
-  const mx = mean(sx);
-  const my = mean(sy);
-  let cov = 0;
-  let vx = 0;
-  let vy = 0;
-  for (let i = 0;i < n; i++) {
-    const dx = (sx[i] ?? 0) - mx;
-    const dy = (sy[i] ?? 0) - my;
-    cov += dx * dy;
-    vx += dx * dx;
-    vy += dy * dy;
-  }
-  const varianceX = vx / n;
-  const varianceY = vy / n;
-  if (vx <= 0.000000000001 || vy <= 0.000000000001) {
-    return {
-      raw: 0,
-      value: 0,
-      confidence: 0,
-      shrinkage: 0,
-      sampleSize: n,
-      varianceX,
-      varianceY
-    };
+
+// src/lib/evaluation/rules.ts
+init_dist2();
+function evaluateRules(input) {
+  const judged = judgeArtifact(input.artifact, input.rubric);
+  if (!judged.ok) {
+    throw new Error(judged.issues.join("; "));
   }
-  const raw = clampCorrelation(cov / Math.sqrt(vx) / Math.sqrt(vy));
-  const ci95 = 1.96 / Math.sqrt(Math.max(1, n - 3));
-  const sampleConfidence = clamp012(1 - ci95);
-  const varianceConfidenceX = varianceX / (varianceX + 0.01);
-  const varianceConfidenceY = varianceY / (varianceY + 0.01);
-  const varianceConfidence = Math.sqrt(varianceConfidenceX * varianceConfidenceY);
-  const confidence = clamp012(sampleConfidence * varianceConfidence);
-  const shrinkage = confidence;
-  const value = raw * shrinkage;
-  return {
-    raw,
-    value,
-    confidence,
-    shrinkage,
-    sampleSize: n,
-    varianceX,
-    varianceY
-  };
+  return judged.report;
 }
-function calibrateMonetization(rows) {
-  if (rows.length === 0) {
-    throw new Error("calibration rows cannot be empty");
+
+// src/commands/judge.ts
+function canonical(path, depth = 0) {
+  const absolute = resolve7(path);
+  try {
+    return realpathSync3(absolute);
+  } catch {
+    try {
+      if (depth < 32 && lstatSync2(absolute).isSymbolicLink()) {
+        return canonical(resolve7(dirname6(absolute), readlinkSync2(absolute)), depth + 1);
+      }
+    } catch {}
+    const parent = dirname6(absolute);
+    return parent === absolute ? absolute : resolve7(canonical(parent, depth), basename3(absolute));
   }
-  const users = new Map;
-  for (const row of rows) {
-    const day = Math.max(0, Math.floor(row.day));
-    const u = users.get(row.userId) ?? { days: new Set, iap: 0, ad: 0, acq: undefined };
-    if (row.active ?? true)
-      u.days.add(day);
-    u.iap += Math.max(0, row.iapRevenue);
-    u.ad += Math.max(0, row.adRevenue);
-    if (row.acquisitionCost !== undefined && Number.isFinite(row.acquisitionCost)) {
-      u.acq = (u.acq ?? 0) + Math.max(0, row.acquisitionCost);
+}
+function existingDirectory(path) {
+  let directory = dirname6(path);
+  for (;; ) {
+    try {
+      const stat = statSync(directory);
+      return stat.isDirectory() ? { path: directory, dev: stat.dev, ino: stat.ino } : null;
+    } catch {
+      const parent = dirname6(directory);
+      if (parent === directory)
+        return null;
+      directory = parent;
     }
-    users.set(row.userId, u);
   }
-  const cohortSize = Math.max(1, users.size);
-  const dayActiveCount = (targetDay) => {
-    let count = 0;
-    for (const user of users.values())
-      if (user.days.has(targetDay))
-        count += 1;
-    return count;
-  };
-  const d1 = dayActiveCount(1) / cohortSize;
-  const d7 = dayActiveCount(7) / cohortSize;
-  const d30 = dayActiveCount(30) / cohortSize;
-  const d90 = dayActiveCount(90) / cohortSize;
-  let totalIap = 0;
-  let totalAd = 0;
-  let payerUsers = 0;
-  let activeUserDays = 0;
-  let payerDays = 0;
-  let totalAcq = 0;
-  let acqUsers = 0;
-  for (const user of users.values()) {
-    totalIap += user.iap;
-    totalAd += user.ad;
-    if (user.iap > 0)
-      payerUsers += 1;
-    activeUserDays += user.days.size;
-    for (const day of user.days) {
-      if (day >= 0 && user.iap > 0)
-        payerDays += 1;
-    }
-    if (user.acq !== undefined) {
-      totalAcq += user.acq;
-      acqUsers += 1;
+}
+function ignoresCase(directory) {
+  const name = `.idlekit-case-${crypto.randomUUID()}`;
+  const path = resolve7(directory, name);
+  let fd;
+  try {
+    fd = openSync2(path, "wx");
+    const original = statSync(path);
+    const folded = statSync(resolve7(directory, name.toUpperCase()));
+    return original.dev === folded.dev && original.ino === folded.ino;
+  } catch {
+    return fd === undefined && process.platform === "win32";
+  } finally {
+    if (fd !== undefined) {
+      try {
+        closeSync2(fd);
+      } finally {
+        unlinkSync2(path);
+      }
     }
   }
-  const payerConversion = payerUsers / cohortSize;
-  const arppuDaily = totalIap / Math.max(1, payerDays);
-  const adArpDau = totalAd / Math.max(1, activeUserDays);
-  const cpi = totalAcq / Math.max(1, acqUsers);
-  const userRetention = [];
-  const userConversion = [];
-  const userArppu = [];
-  const userAdArpDau = [];
-  for (const user of users.values()) {
-    const activeDays = Math.max(1, user.days.size);
-    const retentionScore = clamp012(activeDays / 30);
-    const conversionScore = user.iap > 0 ? 1 : 0;
-    const arppuScore = user.iap > 0 ? user.iap / activeDays : 0;
-    const adScore = user.ad / activeDays;
-    userRetention.push(retentionScore);
-    userConversion.push(conversionScore);
-    userArppu.push(arppuScore);
-    userAdArpDau.push(adScore);
+}
+function sameFile(left, right) {
+  const aPath = canonical(left);
+  const bPath = canonical(right);
+  if (aPath === bPath)
+    return true;
+  try {
+    const a = statSync(left);
+    const b = statSync(right);
+    return a.dev === b.dev && a.ino === b.ino;
+  } catch {
+    if (aPath.toLowerCase() !== bPath.toLowerCase())
+      return false;
+    const a = existingDirectory(aPath);
+    const b = existingDirectory(bPath);
+    return a !== null && b !== null && a.dev === b.dev && a.ino === b.ino && ignoresCase(a.path);
   }
-  const estimatedCorrelationPair = {
-    retentionConversion: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userConversion),
-    retentionArppu: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userArppu),
-    retentionAd: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userAdArpDau),
-    conversionArppu: estimateCorrelation(userConversion, userArppu),
-    conversionAd: estimateCorrelation(userConversion, userAdArpDau),
-    arppuAd: estimateCorrelation(userArppu, userAdArpDau)
-  };
-  const estimatedCorrelation = {
-    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.value,
-    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.value,
-    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.value,
-    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.value,
-    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.value,
-    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.value
-  };
-  const estimatedCorrelationRaw = {
-    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.raw,
-    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.raw,
-    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.raw,
-    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.raw,
-    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.raw,
-    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.raw
-  };
-  const correlationConfidence = {
-    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.confidence,
-    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.confidence,
-    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.confidence,
-    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.confidence,
-    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.confidence,
-    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.confidence
-  };
-  const result = {
-    monetization: {
-      cohorts: {
-        baseUsers: cohortSize
-      },
-      retention: {
-        d1: clamp012(d1),
-        d7: clamp012(Math.min(d1, d7)),
-        d30: clamp012(Math.min(d1, d7, d30)),
-        d90: clamp012(Math.min(d1, d7, d30, d90)),
-        longTailDailyDecay: 0.02
-      },
-      revenue: {
-        payerConversion: clamp012(payerConversion),
-        arppuDaily: Math.max(0, arppuDaily),
-        adArpDau: Math.max(0, adArpDau),
-        platformFeeRate: 0.3,
-        grossMarginRate: 0.92
-      },
-      acquisition: {
-        cpi: Math.max(0, cpi)
-      },
-      uncertainty: {
-        enabled: true,
-        draws: 300,
-        quantiles: [0.5, 0.9],
-        sigma: {
-          retention: 0.08,
-          conversion: 0.12,
-          arppu: 0.2,
-          ad: 0.15
-        },
-        correlation: {
-          retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelation.retentionConversion,
-          retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelation.retentionArppu,
-          retentionAd: estimatedCorrelation.retentionAd,
-          conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelation.conversionArppu,
-          conversionAd: estimatedCorrelation.conversionAd,
-          arppuAd: estimatedCorrelation.arppuAd
-        }
-      }
-    },
-    diagnostics: {
-      users: cohortSize,
-      totalRows: rows.length,
-      totalIap,
-      totalAd,
-      activeUserDays,
-      payerUsers,
-      payerDays,
-      retention: {
-        d1,
-        d7,
-        d30,
-        d90
-      },
-      userFeatureVariance: {
-        retention: variance(userRetention),
-        conversion: variance(userConversion),
-        arppu: variance(userArppu),
-        adArpDau: variance(userAdArpDau)
-      },
-      estimatedCorrelation,
-      estimatedCorrelationRaw,
-      correlationConfidence,
-      correlationDiagnostics: estimatedCorrelationPair
-    }
-  };
-  assertFiniteNumbers(result, "calibration");
-  return result;
 }
-// src/lib/ltvProjection.ts
-function clamp013(v) {
-  if (v < 0)
-    return 0;
-  if (v > 1)
-    return 1;
-  return v;
+function ancestorFile(parent, child) {
+  let directory = dirname6(canonical(child));
+  for (;; ) {
+    if (sameFile(parent, directory))
+      return true;
+    const next = dirname6(directory);
+    if (next === directory)
+      return false;
+    directory = next;
+  }
 }
-function deriveMonetizationConfig(scenario) {
-  const m = scenario.monetization;
-  const q = (m?.uncertainty?.quantiles ?? [0.5, 0.9]).filter((x) => typeof x === "number");
-  const quantiles = q.length > 0 ? [...new Set(q)].sort((a, b) => a - b) : [0.5, 0.9];
-  return {
-    cohorts: {
-      baseUsers: m?.cohorts?.baseUsers ?? 1
-    },
-    retention: {
-      d1: m?.retention?.d1 ?? 0.42,
-      d7: m?.retention?.d7 ?? 0.2,
-      d30: m?.retention?.d30 ?? 0.09,
-      d90: m?.retention?.d90 ?? 0.04,
-      longTailDailyDecay: m?.retention?.longTailDailyDecay ?? 0.02
-    },
-    revenue: {
-      payerConversion: m?.revenue?.payerConversion ?? 0.03,
-      arppuDaily: m?.revenue?.arppuDaily ?? 0.7,
-      adArpDau: m?.revenue?.adArpDau ?? 0.02,
-      platformFeeRate: m?.revenue?.platformFeeRate ?? 0.3,
-      grossMarginRate: m?.revenue?.grossMarginRate ?? 0.92,
-      progressionRevenueLift: m?.revenue?.progressionRevenueLift ?? 0.4,
-      progressionLogSpan: m?.revenue?.progressionLogSpan ?? 6
-    },
-    acquisition: {
-      cpi: m?.acquisition?.cpi ?? 0
-    },
-    uncertainty: {
-      enabled: m?.uncertainty?.enabled ?? false,
-      draws: m?.uncertainty?.draws ?? 300,
-      quantiles,
-      seed: m?.uncertainty?.seed,
-      sigma: {
-        retention: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.retention ?? 0.08,
-        conversion: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.conversion ?? 0.12,
-        arppu: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.arppu ?? 0.2,
-        ad: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.ad ?? 0.15
-      },
-      correlation: {
-        retentionConversion: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionConversion ?? 0,
-        retentionArppu: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionArppu ?? 0,
-        retentionAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionAd ?? 0,
-        conversionArppu: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.conversionArppu ?? 0,
-        conversionAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.conversionAd ?? 0,
-        arppuAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.arppuAd ?? 0
+function requireFileTarget(path, flag) {
+  const target = canonical(path);
+  let current = target;
+  for (;; ) {
+    let stat;
+    try {
+      stat = statSync(current);
+    } catch (error) {
+      if (error.code !== "ENOENT") {
+        throw usageError(`--${flag} requires a regular file target with directory parents.`);
       }
     }
-  };
+    if (stat) {
+      const valid = current === target ? stat.isFile() : stat.isDirectory();
+      if (!valid)
+        throw usageError(`--${flag} requires a regular file target with directory parents.`);
+      return;
+    }
+    const parent = dirname6(current);
+    if (parent === current)
+      throw usageError(`--${flag} has no usable parent directory.`);
+    current = parent;
+  }
 }
-function retentionAtDay(ret, day) {
-  if (day <= 0)
-    return 1;
-  if (day <= 1)
-    return ret.d1;
-  if (day <= 7)
-    return ret.d1 + (ret.d7 - ret.d1) * (day - 1) / 6;
-  if (day <= 30)
-    return ret.d7 + (ret.d30 - ret.d7) * (day - 7) / 23;
-  if (day <= 90)
-    return ret.d30 + (ret.d90 - ret.d30) * (day - 30) / 60;
-  const extra = day - 90;
-  return clamp013(ret.d90 * Math.exp(-ret.longTailDailyDecay * extra));
+function renderJudgeMarkdown(report) {
+  const lines = [
+    "# Rules judge",
+    "",
+    "This is not doctor. The numerical verdict is not rewritten.",
+    "",
+    `- Provider: ${report.provider}`,
+    `- Rubric: ${report.rubricVersion}`,
+    `- Digest: ${report.advisoryDigest}`,
+    "",
+    "## Numerical",
+    ""
+  ];
+  for (const result of report.numerical.results) {
+    lines.push(`- ${result.metricId}: ${result.verdict} ${result.evidence.value ?? "none"} ${result.evidence.unit}`);
+  }
+  lines.push("", "## Estimates", "");
+  if (report.estimatedObservations.length === 0)
+    lines.push("None.");
+  for (const estimate of report.estimatedObservations) {
+    lines.push(`- ${estimate.metricId}: ${estimate.value ?? "none"}`);
+  }
+  lines.push("", "## Semantic", "");
+  for (const diagnostic of report.diagnostics) {
+    lines.push(`- ${diagnostic.status} ${diagnostic.recommendationId}: ${diagnostic.text.en}`);
+  }
+  return lines.join(`
+`);
 }
-function progressionFactor(startWorthLog10, endWorthLog10, span) {
-  if (!Number.isFinite(startWorthLog10) || !Number.isFinite(endWorthLog10) || !Number.isFinite(span) || span <= 0) {
-    return 0;
+function judgeCsvRows(report) {
+  return report.numerical.results.map((result, index) => {
+    const diagnostic = report.diagnostics[index];
+    return {
+      id: result.id,
+      metricId: result.metricId,
+      verdict: result.verdict,
+      severity: result.severity,
+      evidenceStatus: result.evidence.status,
+      value: result.evidence.value,
+      unit: result.evidence.unit,
+      operator: result.evidence.operator,
+      threshold: result.evidence.threshold,
+      upperThreshold: result.evidence.upperThreshold,
+      diagnosticStatus: diagnostic?.status ?? null,
+      recommendationId: diagnostic?.recommendationId ?? null
+    };
+  });
+}
+async function runJudge(flags, analysisPath, hooks) {
+  const requestedModel = (flags.model ?? "jev-latest").trim();
+  if (flags.provider === "jev" && requestedModel.length === 0) {
+    throw usageError("--model requires a nonempty model name.");
+  }
+  if (flags.provider === "jev" && flags.format === "csv") {
+    throw usageError("--provider jev writes json or md. csv cannot hold the rules report and the advisory together.");
+  }
+  if (flags.provider === "jev" && flags.cache) {
+    if (flags.out && sameFile(flags.cache, flags.out)) {
+      throw usageError("--cache and --out name the same file. Give the Jev cache its own path.");
+    }
+    if (flags.out && (ancestorFile(flags.cache, flags.out) || ancestorFile(flags.out, flags.cache))) {
+      throw usageError("--cache and --out cannot be ancestor paths. Give each file a separate target.");
+    }
+    if (sameFile(flags.cache, analysisPath) || sameFile(flags.cache, flags.rubric)) {
+      throw usageError("--cache names an input file. Give the Jev cache its own path.");
+    }
+  }
+  if (flags.provider === "jev") {
+    if (flags.cache)
+      requireFileTarget(flags.cache, "cache");
+    if (flags.out)
+      requireFileTarget(flags.out, "out");
+  }
+  let artifactRaw;
+  let rubricRaw;
+  try {
+    artifactRaw = await readJsonFile(analysisPath);
+    rubricRaw = await readJsonFile(flags.rubric);
+  } catch (error) {
+    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`);
+  }
+  const parsed = readJudgeInputs(artifactRaw, rubricRaw);
+  if (!parsed.ok) {
+    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${parsed.issues.join("; ")}`);
+  }
+  let report;
+  try {
+    report = evaluateRules(parsed);
+  } catch (error) {
+    const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);
+    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${message}`);
+  }
+  if (flags.provider === "rules") {
+    await writeOutput({
+      format: flags.format,
+      outPath: flags.out,
+      data: flags.format === "md" ? renderJudgeMarkdown(report) : flags.format === "csv" ? judgeCsvRows(report) : report
+    });
+    return report;
+  }
+  await Promise.resolve().then(() => init_jev());
+  const key = (hooks?.env ?? process.env).TYPESAFE_API_KEY?.trim() ?? "";
+  if (!isSafeJevReport(report, key)) {
+    throw usageError("Unsafe Jev numerical report metadata. Remove secrets and local paths from the judge inputs.");
+  }
+  const advisory = await adviseWithJev({
+    artifact: parsed.artifact,
+    rubric: parsed.rubric,
+    numerical: report,
+    requestedModel,
+    dryRun: flags["dry-run"] === true,
+    cachePath: flags.cache,
+    transport: hooks?.transport,
+    env: hooks?.env,
+    nowMs: hooks?.nowMs,
+    sleep: hooks?.sleep
+  });
+  const bundle = { numericalReport: report, advisory };
+  if (flags.format === "md") {
+    const markdown = [
+      renderJudgeMarkdown(report),
+      `- Jev: ${advisory.status} ${advisory.reason}`,
+      `- Endpoint: ${advisory.endpoint}`,
+      `- Planned requests: ${advisory.plannedRequests}`,
+      "",
+      "## Jev answers",
+      "",
+      ...advisory.answers.map((answer) => {
+        const value = answer.noul ?? answer.choice ?? answer.score ?? "none";
+        const confidence = answer.confidence === null ? "" : `; confidence=${answer.confidence}`;
+        return `- ${answer.id}: ${answer.type}=${value}${confidence}; ${answer.disposition}`;
+      }),
+      ...advisory.answers.length === 0 ? ["None."] : []
+    ].join(`
+`);
+    if (flags.out) {
+      const outPath = resolve7(flags.out);
+      await writeTextFile(outPath, `${markdown}
+`);
+      console.log(`Wrote md output to ${outPath}`);
+    } else {
+      await writeStdout(`${markdown}
+`);
+    }
+    return bundle;
+  }
+  await writeOutput({
+    format: flags.format,
+    outPath: flags.out,
+    data: bundle,
+    meta: buildOutputMeta({
+      command: "judge",
+      pluginDigest: {},
+      schemaRef: outputSchemaRefForCommand("judge.jev")
+    })
+  });
+  return bundle;
+}
+var judge_default = defineCommand({
+  name: "judge",
+  description: "Advise on an analysis artifact with a versioned rules rubric",
+  options: {
+    rubric: option(string2(), { description: "Versioned rubric JSON path" }),
+    provider: option(_enum(["rules", "jev"]).default("rules"), {
+      description: "Advisory provider. rules is local. jev is an opt-in network provider."
+    }),
+    "dry-run": option(exports_coerce.boolean().default(false), {
+      description: "Show the Jev request plan without calling the network"
+    }),
+    model: option(string2().trim().min(1).default("jev-latest"), {
+      description: "Requested Jev model. jev-latest is an alias, not a pinned id."
+    }),
+    cache: option(string2().optional(), { description: "Optional Jev advisory cache path" }),
+    out: option(string2().optional(), { description: "Output path" }),
+    format: option(_enum(["json", "md", "csv"]).default("json"), { description: "Output format" })
+  },
+  async handler({ flags, positional }) {
+    const analysisPath = positional[0];
+    if (!analysisPath) {
+      throw usageError("Usage: idk judge <analysis.json> --rubric <rubric.json> --provider rules");
+    }
+    await runJudge(flags, analysisPath);
   }
-  return clamp013((endWorthLog10 - startWorthLog10) / span);
-}
-function estimateLtvPerUser(args) {
-  const { config, horizonDays } = args;
-  const progression = clamp013(args.progression);
-  const arppuDaily = config.revenue.arppuDaily * (1 + progression * config.revenue.progressionRevenueLift);
-  const adArpDau = config.revenue.adArpDau * (1 + progression * config.revenue.progressionRevenueLift * 0.5);
-  const payerConversion = config.revenue.payerConversion;
-  const fullDays = Math.floor(Math.max(0, horizonDays));
-  const remainder = Math.max(0, horizonDays - fullDays);
-  let gross = 0;
-  for (let day = 1;day <= fullDays; day++) {
-    const active = retentionAtDay(config.retention, day);
-    gross += active * (payerConversion * arppuDaily + adArpDau);
+});
+
+// src/commands/calibrate.ts
+init_zod();
+init_errors3();
+init_outputMeta();
+import { extname as extname3, resolve as resolve8 } from "path";
+
+// src/lib/ltvCalibration.ts
+function assertFiniteNumbers(value, path) {
+  if (typeof value === "number" && !Number.isFinite(value)) {
+    throw new RangeError(`Calibration requires finite numbers; numeric overflow at ${path}`);
   }
-  if (remainder > 0) {
-    const active = retentionAtDay(config.retention, fullDays + 1);
-    gross += remainder * active * (payerConversion * arppuDaily + adArpDau);
+  if (typeof value === "object" && value !== null) {
+    for (const [key, child] of Object.entries(value))
+      assertFiniteNumbers(child, `${path}.${key}`);
   }
-  const net = gross * (1 - config.revenue.platformFeeRate) * config.revenue.grossMarginRate;
-  const ltv = net - config.acquisition.cpi;
-  return {
-    cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser: gross,
-    cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser: net,
-    cumulativeLtvPerUser: ltv
-  };
 }
-// src/lib/ltvUncertainty.ts
 function clamp014(v) {
   if (v < 0)
     return 0;
@@ -36864,278 +37148,260 @@ function clampCorrelation2(v) {
     return 1;
   return v;
 }
-function mulberry323(seed) {
-  let a = seed >>> 0;
-  return () => {
-    a |= 0;
-    a = a + 1831565813 | 0;
-    let t = Math.imul(a ^ a >>> 15, 1 | a);
-    t = t + Math.imul(t ^ t >>> 7, 61 | t) ^ t;
-    return ((t ^ t >>> 14) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
-  };
-}
-function randNormal(rng) {
-  const u1 = Math.max(0.000000000001, rng());
-  const u2 = Math.max(0.000000000001, rng());
-  return Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(u1)) * Math.cos(2 * Math.PI * u2);
-}
-function buildCorrelationMatrix(base) {
-  const rc = clampCorrelation2(base.retentionConversion);
-  const ra = clampCorrelation2(base.retentionArppu);
-  const rd = clampCorrelation2(base.retentionAd);
-  const ca = clampCorrelation2(base.conversionArppu);
-  const cd = clampCorrelation2(base.conversionAd);
-  const ad = clampCorrelation2(base.arppuAd);
-  return [
-    [1, rc, ra, rd],
-    [rc, 1, ca, cd],
-    [ra, ca, 1, ad],
-    [rd, cd, ad, 1]
-  ];
-}
-function withOffDiagonalScale(matrix, alpha) {
-  return matrix.map((row, i) => row.map((v, j) => {
-    if (i === j)
-      return 1;
-    return v * alpha;
-  }));
-}
-function cholesky4(matrix) {
-  const n = 4;
-  const l = Array.from({ length: n }, () => Array.from({ length: n }, () => 0));
-  for (let i = 0;i < n; i++) {
-    for (let j = 0;j <= i; j++) {
-      let sum = 0;
-      for (let k = 0;k < j; k++) {
-        sum += (l[i]?.[k] ?? 0) * (l[j]?.[k] ?? 0);
-      }
-      if (i === j) {
-        const val = (matrix[i]?.[i] ?? 0) - sum;
-        if (val <= 0.000000001)
-          return null;
-        l[i][j] = Math.sqrt(val);
-      } else {
-        const denom = l[j]?.[j] ?? 0;
-        if (Math.abs(denom) < 0.000000001)
-          return null;
-        l[i][j] = ((matrix[i]?.[j] ?? 0) - sum) / denom;
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  return l;
+function mean(values) {
+  if (values.length === 0)
+    return 0;
+  return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length;
 }
-function multiplyLowerTriangular(l, z) {
-  const out = [0, 0, 0, 0];
-  for (let i = 0;i < 4; i++) {
-    let sum = 0;
-    for (let j = 0;j <= i; j++) {
-      sum += (l[i]?.[j] ?? 0) * (z[j] ?? 0);
-    }
-    out[i] = sum;
+function variance(values) {
+  if (values.length === 0)
+    return 0;
+  const m = mean(values);
+  let acc = 0;
+  for (const v of values) {
+    const d = v - m;
+    acc += d * d;
   }
-  return out;
+  return acc / values.length;
 }
-function sampleCorrelatedNormals(rng, corr) {
-  const z = [randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng)];
-  const matrix = buildCorrelationMatrix(corr);
-  let l = cholesky4(matrix);
-  let alpha = 0.99;
-  while (!l && alpha > 0.000001) {
-    l = cholesky4(withOffDiagonalScale(matrix, alpha));
-    alpha *= 0.8;
-  }
-  if (!l) {
+function estimateCorrelation(x, y) {
+  const n = Math.min(x.length, y.length);
+  if (n < 3) {
     return {
-      retention: z[0] ?? 0,
-      conversion: z[1] ?? 0,
-      arppu: z[2] ?? 0,
-      ad: z[3] ?? 0
+      raw: 0,
+      value: 0,
+      confidence: 0,
+      shrinkage: 0,
+      sampleSize: n,
+      varianceX: 0,
+      varianceY: 0
     };
   }
-  const c = multiplyLowerTriangular(l, z);
-  return {
-    retention: c[0] ?? 0,
-    conversion: c[1] ?? 0,
-    arppu: c[2] ?? 0,
-    ad: c[3] ?? 0
-  };
-}
-function applyLogNormalShock(mean, sigma, z) {
-  if (sigma <= 0)
-    return mean;
-  return mean * Math.exp(sigma * z - 0.5 * sigma * sigma);
-}
-function makeUncertainConfig(base, rng) {
-  const shock = sampleCorrelatedNormals(rng, base.uncertainty.correlation);
-  const d1 = clamp014(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d1, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention));
-  const d7 = Math.min(d1, clamp014(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d7, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
-  const d30 = Math.min(d7, clamp014(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d30, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
-  const d90 = Math.min(d30, clamp014(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d90, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
-  return {
-    ...base,
-    retention: {
-      ...base.retention,
-      d1,
-      d7,
-      d30,
-      d90
-    },
-    revenue: {
-      ...base.revenue,
-      payerConversion: clamp014(applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.payerConversion, base.uncertainty.sigma.conversion, shock.conversion)),
-      arppuDaily: Math.max(0, applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.arppuDaily, base.uncertainty.sigma.arppu, shock.arppu)),
-      adArpDau: Math.max(0, applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.adArpDau, base.uncertainty.sigma.ad, shock.ad))
-    }
-  };
-}
-function quantile2(values, q) {
-  if (values.length === 0)
-    return 0;
-  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b);
-  const idx = Math.max(0, Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.floor((sorted.length - 1) * q)));
-  return sorted[idx] ?? 0;
-}
-function estimateLtvDistribution(args) {
-  const rng = mulberry323(args.seed);
-  const grossSamples = [];
-  const netSamples = [];
-  const ltvSamples = [];
-  const draws = Math.max(1, args.draws);
-  for (let i = 0;i < draws; i++) {
-    const sampled = makeUncertainConfig(args.config, rng);
-    const point = estimateLtvPerUser({
-      config: sampled,
-      horizonDays: args.horizonDays,
-      progression: args.progression
-    });
-    grossSamples.push(point.cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser);
-    netSamples.push(point.cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser);
-    ltvSamples.push(point.cumulativeLtvPerUser);
-  }
-  const avg = (arr) => arr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / Math.max(1, arr.length);
-  const byQuantile = {};
-  for (const q of args.quantiles) {
-    byQuantile[`q${Math.round(q * 100)}`] = quantile2(ltvSamples, q);
-  }
-  return {
-    mean: {
-      cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser: avg(grossSamples),
-      cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser: avg(netSamples),
-      cumulativeLtvPerUser: avg(ltvSamples)
-    },
-    quantiles: byQuantile
-  };
-}
-// src/lib/cohortObservation.ts
-var RETENTION_DAYS = [1, 7, 30, 90];
-function observeCohort(rows, observedThroughDay) {
-  if (!Number.isSafeInteger(observedThroughDay) || observedThroughDay < 0)
-    throw new Error("observed-through-day must be a nonnegative safe integer");
-  if (rows.length === 0)
-    throw new Error("Observed cohort requires at least one install record");
-  const users = new Map;
-  for (const row of rows) {
-    if (!row.userId.trim() || !Number.isSafeInteger(row.day) || row.day < 0 || row.day > observedThroughDay) {
-      throw new Error("Observed cohort requires a user ID and integer days within observed-through-day");
-    }
-    if (![row.iapRevenue, row.adRevenue, ...row.acquisitionCost === undefined ? [] : [row.acquisitionCost]].every((v) => Number.isFinite(v) && v >= 0)) {
-      throw new Error("Observed cohort revenue and acquisition costs must be finite and nonnegative");
-    }
-    if (row.active !== undefined && typeof row.active !== "boolean")
-      throw new Error("Observed cohort active must be boolean");
-    const user = users.get(row.userId) ?? { days: new Set, active: new Set };
-    if (user.days.has(row.day))
-      throw new Error("Observed cohort requires one aggregated row per user and day");
-    user.days.add(row.day);
-    if (row.active ?? true)
-      user.active.add(row.day);
-    users.set(row.userId, user);
+  const sx = x.slice(0, n);
+  const sy = y.slice(0, n);
+  const mx = mean(sx);
+  const my = mean(sy);
+  let cov = 0;
+  let vx = 0;
+  let vy = 0;
+  for (let i = 0;i < n; i++) {
+    const dx = (sx[i] ?? 0) - mx;
+    const dy = (sy[i] ?? 0) - my;
+    cov += dx * dy;
+    vx += dx * dx;
+    vy += dy * dy;
   }
-  for (const user of users.values()) {
-    if (!user.days.has(0))
-      throw new Error("Observed cohort requires a day 0 install record for every user, including inactive users");
+  const varianceX = vx / n;
+  const varianceY = vy / n;
+  if (vx <= 0.000000000001 || vy <= 0.000000000001) {
+    return {
+      raw: 0,
+      value: 0,
+      confidence: 0,
+      shrinkage: 0,
+      sampleSize: n,
+      varianceX,
+      varianceY
+    };
   }
-  const n = users.size;
-  const observation = {
-    observedThroughDay,
-    users: n,
-    retention: RETENTION_DAYS.map((day) => {
-      if (day > observedThroughDay)
-        return { day, status: "not-observed", users: n, activeUsers: null, rate: null, interval95: null };
-      const activeUsers = [...users.values()].filter((user) => user.active.has(day)).length;
-      const rate = activeUsers / n;
-      const z2 = 1.959963984540054 ** 2;
-      const denominator = 1 + z2 / n;
-      const center = (rate + z2 / (2 * n)) / denominator;
-      const radius = Math.sqrt(z2 * (rate * (1 - rate) / n + z2 / (4 * n * n))) / denominator;
-      return { day, status: "observed", users: n, activeUsers, rate, interval95: { min: activeUsers === 0 ? 0 : Math.max(0, center - radius), max: activeUsers === n ? 1 : Math.min(1, center + radius) } };
-    })
+  const raw = clampCorrelation2(cov / Math.sqrt(vx) / Math.sqrt(vy));
+  const ci95 = 1.96 / Math.sqrt(Math.max(1, n - 3));
+  const sampleConfidence = clamp014(1 - ci95);
+  const varianceConfidenceX = varianceX / (varianceX + 0.01);
+  const varianceConfidenceY = varianceY / (varianceY + 0.01);
+  const varianceConfidence = Math.sqrt(varianceConfidenceX * varianceConfidenceY);
+  const confidence = clamp014(sampleConfidence * varianceConfidence);
+  const shrinkage = confidence;
+  const value = raw * shrinkage;
+  return {
+    raw,
+    value,
+    confidence,
+    shrinkage,
+    sampleSize: n,
+    varianceX,
+    varianceY
   };
-  assertCohortObservation(observation);
-  return observation;
 }
-function assertCohortObservation(observation) {
-  if (!Number.isSafeInteger(observation.users) || observation.users < 1 || !Number.isSafeInteger(observation.observedThroughDay) || observation.observedThroughDay < 0) {
-    throw new Error("Invalid cohort population or observation cutoff");
+function calibrateMonetization(rows) {
+  if (rows.length === 0) {
+    throw new Error("calibration rows cannot be empty");
   }
-  if (observation.retention.length !== RETENTION_DAYS.length)
-    throw new Error("Cohort retention must contain D1, D7, D30 and D90");
-  for (const [index, point] of observation.retention.entries()) {
-    if (point.day !== RETENTION_DAYS[index] || point.users !== observation.users)
-      throw new Error("Cohort retention days and population must match the observation");
-    const observed = point.day <= observation.observedThroughDay;
-    if (point.status !== (observed ? "observed" : "not-observed"))
-      throw new Error("Cohort retention status must match the observation cutoff");
-    if (!observed) {
-      if (point.activeUsers !== null || point.rate !== null || point.interval95 !== null)
-        throw new Error("Future retention must remain unobserved");
-      continue;
+  const users = new Map;
+  for (const row of rows) {
+    const day = Math.max(0, Math.floor(row.day));
+    const u = users.get(row.userId) ?? { days: new Set, iap: 0, ad: 0, acq: undefined };
+    if (row.active ?? true)
+      u.days.add(day);
+    u.iap += Math.max(0, row.iapRevenue);
+    u.ad += Math.max(0, row.adRevenue);
+    if (row.acquisitionCost !== undefined && Number.isFinite(row.acquisitionCost)) {
+      u.acq = (u.acq ?? 0) + Math.max(0, row.acquisitionCost);
     }
-    if (point.activeUsers === null || !Number.isSafeInteger(point.activeUsers) || point.activeUsers < 0 || point.activeUsers > point.users || point.rate !== point.activeUsers / point.users) {
-      throw new Error("Retained users and retention rate must match the installed population");
+    users.set(row.userId, u);
+  }
+  const cohortSize = Math.max(1, users.size);
+  const dayActiveCount = (targetDay) => {
+    let count = 0;
+    for (const user of users.values())
+      if (user.days.has(targetDay))
+        count += 1;
+    return count;
+  };
+  const d1 = dayActiveCount(1) / cohortSize;
+  const d7 = dayActiveCount(7) / cohortSize;
+  const d30 = dayActiveCount(30) / cohortSize;
+  const d90 = dayActiveCount(90) / cohortSize;
+  let totalIap = 0;
+  let totalAd = 0;
+  let payerUsers = 0;
+  let activeUserDays = 0;
+  let payerDays = 0;
+  let totalAcq = 0;
+  let acqUsers = 0;
+  for (const user of users.values()) {
+    totalIap += user.iap;
+    totalAd += user.ad;
+    if (user.iap > 0)
+      payerUsers += 1;
+    activeUserDays += user.days.size;
+    for (const day of user.days) {
+      if (day >= 0 && user.iap > 0)
+        payerDays += 1;
     }
-    const interval = point.interval95;
-    if (point.rate === null || !interval || !Number.isFinite(interval.min) || !Number.isFinite(interval.max) || interval.min < 0 || interval.max > 1 || interval.min > point.rate || interval.max < point.rate) {
-      throw new Error("Retention confidence interval must be finite and contain the observed rate");
+    if (user.acq !== undefined) {
+      totalAcq += user.acq;
+      acqUsers += 1;
     }
   }
-}
-function observedRetentionRates(observation) {
-  return Object.fromEntries(observation.retention.filter((row) => row.rate !== null).map((row) => [`d${row.day}`, row.rate]));
-}
-function planRetentionPatch(observation, assumptions = {}) {
-  const rates = observedRetentionRates(observation);
-  if (Object.keys(rates).length === 0)
-    return { status: "unavailable", retention: {}, warnings: ["No retention day has been fully observed."] };
-  const merged = { ...assumptions, ...rates };
-  const warnings = [];
-  for (const day of RETENTION_DAYS) {
-    if (merged[`d${day}`] === undefined)
-      warnings.push(`Unobserved D${day} has no explicit retained assumption. An LTV default could conflict with the observations; supply this assumption in --scenario or observe this day before applying a patch.`);
-  }
-  let previous;
-  for (const day of RETENTION_DAYS) {
-    const rate = merged[`d${day}`];
-    if (rate === undefined)
-      continue;
-    if (previous && previous.rate < rate)
-      warnings.push(`D${previous.day}=${previous.rate} is below D${day}=${rate}. LTV requires d1 >= d7 >= d30 >= d90; review observations and retained assumptions before applying a patch.`);
-    previous = { day, rate };
+  const payerConversion = payerUsers / cohortSize;
+  const arppuDaily = totalIap / Math.max(1, payerDays);
+  const adArpDau = totalAd / Math.max(1, activeUserDays);
+  const cpi = totalAcq / Math.max(1, acqUsers);
+  const userRetention = [];
+  const userConversion = [];
+  const userArppu = [];
+  const userAdArpDau = [];
+  for (const user of users.values()) {
+    const activeDays = Math.max(1, user.days.size);
+    const retentionScore = clamp014(activeDays / 30);
+    const conversionScore = user.iap > 0 ? 1 : 0;
+    const arppuScore = user.iap > 0 ? user.iap / activeDays : 0;
+    const adScore = user.ad / activeDays;
+    userRetention.push(retentionScore);
+    userConversion.push(conversionScore);
+    userArppu.push(arppuScore);
+    userAdArpDau.push(adScore);
   }
-  return warnings.length ? { status: "requires-review", retention: {}, warnings } : { status: "ready", retention: rates, warnings };
-}
-function compareRetention(observation, assumptions) {
-  return observation.retention.map((row) => {
-    const assumption = assumptions[`d${row.day}`] ?? null;
-    return {
-      day: row.day,
-      assumption,
-      observed: row.rate,
-      differencePercentagePoints: row.rate === null || assumption === null ? null : (row.rate - assumption) * 100,
-      status: row.rate === null ? "not-observed" : assumption === null ? "unconfigured" : "compared"
-    };
-  });
+  const estimatedCorrelationPair = {
+    retentionConversion: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userConversion),
+    retentionArppu: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userArppu),
+    retentionAd: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userAdArpDau),
+    conversionArppu: estimateCorrelation(userConversion, userArppu),
+    conversionAd: estimateCorrelation(userConversion, userAdArpDau),
+    arppuAd: estimateCorrelation(userArppu, userAdArpDau)
+  };
+  const estimatedCorrelation = {
+    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.value,
+    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.value,
+    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.value,
+    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.value,
+    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.value,
+    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.value
+  };
+  const estimatedCorrelationRaw = {
+    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.raw,
+    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.raw,
+    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.raw,
+    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.raw,
+    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.raw,
+    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.raw
+  };
+  const correlationConfidence = {
+    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.confidence,
+    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.confidence,
+    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.confidence,
+    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.confidence,
+    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.confidence,
+    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.confidence
+  };
+  const result = {
+    monetization: {
+      cohorts: {
+        baseUsers: cohortSize
+      },
+      retention: {
+        d1: clamp014(d1),
+        d7: clamp014(Math.min(d1, d7)),
+        d30: clamp014(Math.min(d1, d7, d30)),
+        d90: clamp014(Math.min(d1, d7, d30, d90)),
+        longTailDailyDecay: 0.02
+      },
+      revenue: {
+        payerConversion: clamp014(payerConversion),
+        arppuDaily: Math.max(0, arppuDaily),
+        adArpDau: Math.max(0, adArpDau),
+        platformFeeRate: 0.3,
+        grossMarginRate: 0.92
+      },
+      acquisition: {
+        cpi: Math.max(0, cpi)
+      },
+      uncertainty: {
+        enabled: true,
+        draws: 300,
+        quantiles: [0.5, 0.9],
+        sigma: {
+          retention: 0.08,
+          conversion: 0.12,
+          arppu: 0.2,
+          ad: 0.15
+        },
+        correlation: {
+          retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelation.retentionConversion,
+          retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelation.retentionArppu,
+          retentionAd: estimatedCorrelation.retentionAd,
+          conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelation.conversionArppu,
+          conversionAd: estimatedCorrelation.conversionAd,
+          arppuAd: estimatedCorrelation.arppuAd
+        }
+      }
+    },
+    diagnostics: {
+      users: cohortSize,
+      totalRows: rows.length,
+      totalIap,
+      totalAd,
+      activeUserDays,
+      payerUsers,
+      payerDays,
+      retention: {
+        d1,
+        d7,
+        d30,
+        d90
+      },
+      userFeatureVariance: {
+        retention: variance(userRetention),
+        conversion: variance(userConversion),
+        arppu: variance(userArppu),
+        adArpDau: variance(userAdArpDau)
+      },
+      estimatedCorrelation,
+      estimatedCorrelationRaw,
+      correlationConfidence,
+      correlationDiagnostics: estimatedCorrelationPair
+    }
+  };
+  assertFiniteNumbers(result, "calibration");
+  return result;
 }
+// src/lib/ltvProjection.ts
+init_dist2();
+// src/lib/ltvUncertainty.ts
+init_dist2();
+// src/lib/cohortObservation.ts
+init_dist2();
 function renderCohortMarkdown(observation, comparison, patch) {
   const percent = (value) => value === null ? "unavailable" : `${(value * 100).toFixed(2)}%`;
   const lines = [
@@ -37460,6 +37726,42 @@ var CLI_DESCRIPTION = import_package2.default.description ?? "Bun-first idle gam
 // src/balance/workflow.ts
 init_bun();
 
+// src/balance/pacingAmount.ts
+var MAX_DECIMAL_LENGTH = 200;
+var DECIMAL = /^([+-]?)(?:(\d+)(?:\.(\d*))?|\.(\d+))(?:[eE]([+-]?\d+))?$/;
+function pacingValue(value) {
+  if (typeof value === "number")
+    return Number.isFinite(value) ? Object.is(value, -0) ? 0 : value : undefined;
+  return typeof value === "string" && value.length <= MAX_DECIMAL_LENGTH && DECIMAL.test(value) ? value : undefined;
+}
+function parts(value) {
+  if (pacingValue(value) === undefined)
+    throw new RangeError("Pacing value must be finite or bounded decimal text");
+  const match = DECIMAL.exec(String(value));
+  const fraction = match[3] ?? match[4] ?? "";
+  const digits = `${match[2] ?? ""}${fraction}`.replace(/^0+/, "");
+  const sign = digits.length === 0 ? 0 : match[1] === "-" ? -1 : 1;
+  return {
+    sign,
+    digits: digits.replace(/0+$/, ""),
+    magnitude: BigInt(match[5] ?? "0") - BigInt(fraction.length) + BigInt(digits.length)
+  };
+}
+function comparePacingValues(left, right) {
+  if (typeof left === "number" && typeof right === "number")
+    return left < right ? -1 : left > right ? 1 : 0;
+  const a = parts(left), b = parts(right);
+  if (a.sign !== b.sign)
+    return a.sign < b.sign ? -1 : 1;
+  if (a.sign === 0)
+    return 0;
+  if (a.magnitude !== b.magnitude)
+    return (a.magnitude < b.magnitude ? -1 : 1) * a.sign;
+  const length = Math.max(a.digits.length, b.digits.length);
+  const ad = a.digits.padEnd(length, "0"), bd = b.digits.padEnd(length, "0");
+  return (ad < bd ? -1 : ad > bd ? 1 : 0) * a.sign;
+}
+
 // src/balance/pacing.ts
 var PACING_LIMITS = Object.freeze({
   maxRuns: 1000,
@@ -37501,6 +37803,12 @@ function finite2(value, label) {
     invalid(`${label} must be finite`);
   return Object.is(value, -0) ? 0 : value;
 }
+function bound(value, label) {
+  const parsed = pacingValue(value);
+  if (parsed === undefined)
+    invalid(`${label} must be finite or decimal text of at most 200 characters`);
+  return parsed;
+}
 function limit(value, maximum, label) {
   if (value === undefined)
     return maximum;
@@ -37559,11 +37867,11 @@ function planPacingRuns(input) {
     if (metrics.has(metric))
       invalid(`duplicate target metric ${metric}`);
     metrics.add(metric);
-    const min = raw.min === undefined ? undefined : finite2(raw.min, `targets[${index}].min`);
-    const max = raw.max === undefined ? undefined : finite2(raw.max, `targets[${index}].max`);
+    const min = raw.min === undefined ? undefined : bound(raw.min, `targets[${index}].min`);
+    const max = raw.max === undefined ? undefined : bound(raw.max, `targets[${index}].max`);
     if (min === undefined && max === undefined)
       invalid(`target ${metric} needs min or max`);
-    if (min !== undefined && max !== undefined && min > max)
+    if (min !== undefined && max !== undefined && comparePacingValues(min, max) > 0)
       invalid(`target ${metric} min exceeds max`);
     return Object.freeze({ metric, unit, ...min !== undefined ? { min } : {}, ...max !== undefined ? { max } : {} });
   }).sort((left, right) => compareText(left.metric, right.metric));
@@ -37642,11 +37950,12 @@ function checkTarget(target, metrics) {
   const value = metrics[target.metric];
   if (value === null)
     return { ...target, value, status: "unreached", message: "Metric not reached within the run horizon" };
-  if (typeof value !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(value)) {
-    return { ...target, value: null, status: "error", message: "Evaluator metric must be a finite number or null" };
+  const parsed = pacingValue(value);
+  if (parsed === undefined) {
+    return { ...target, value: null, status: "error", message: "Evaluator metric must be a finite number, bounded decimal text or null" };
   }
-  const breached = target.min !== undefined && value < target.min || target.max !== undefined && value > target.max;
-  return { ...target, value: Object.is(value, -0) ? 0 : value, status: breached ? "breach" : "pass" };
+  const breached = target.min !== undefined && comparePacingValues(parsed, target.min) < 0 || target.max !== undefined && comparePacingValues(parsed, target.max) > 0;
+  return { ...target, value: parsed, status: breached ? "breach" : "pass" };
 }
 async function runPacingChecks(input, evaluator) {
   const plan = planPacingRuns(input);
@@ -38410,7 +38719,8 @@ async function refreshBalanceWorkflow(configPath, flags, check = false) {
   const loaded = await loadRegistriesFromFlags(flags);
   for (const [index, path] of Object.keys(loaded.pluginDigest).entries())
     inputFiles[`plugin${index}`] = path;
-  const context = { cliVersion: CLI_VERSION, bunVersion: Bun.version, pluginDigests: JSON.stringify(loaded.pluginDigest), engine: "number" };
+  const engine = resolveEffectiveEngine({ requested: flags.engine });
+  const context = { cliVersion: CLI_VERSION, bunVersion: Bun.version, pluginDigests: JSON.stringify(loaded.pluginDigest), engine: engine.effectiveId };
   const outputDir = resolve10(base, config.outputDir);
   if (check)
     return readCurrentBundle(outputDir, inputFiles, { context });
@@ -38447,7 +38757,7 @@ async function refreshBalanceWorkflow(configPath, flags, check = false) {
       const metricIds = new Set(config.metrics.map((metric) => metric.id));
       if (metricIds.size !== config.metrics.length)
         throw new Error("Metric IDs must be unique");
-      const targets = config.pacing.targets ?? [];
+      const targets = plan.targets;
       for (const target of targets)
         if (!metricIds.has(target.metric))
           throw new Error(`Unknown target metric: ${target.metric}`);
@@ -38469,6 +38779,9 @@ async function refreshBalanceWorkflow(configPath, flags, check = false) {
         const unit = metric.kind === "firstAction" || metric.kind === "firstActionPrefix" ? "seconds" : metric.kind === "endWallet" || metric.kind === "endNetWorth" ? baselineDocument.unit.code : "count";
         if (target.unit !== unit)
           throw new Error(`Target ${target.metric} must use unit '${unit}'`);
+        if (metric.kind !== "endWallet" && metric.kind !== "endNetWorth" && (typeof target.min === "string" || typeof target.max === "string")) {
+          throw new Error(`Target ${target.metric} requires finite numeric time or count bounds`);
+        }
       }
       const materialize = (patches) => {
         const candidate = applySheetCsv(template, schema, overlayCsv(canonicalCsv, patches));
@@ -38486,7 +38799,7 @@ async function refreshBalanceWorkflow(configPath, flags, check = false) {
           modelRegistry: loaded.modelRegistry,
           strategyRegistry: loaded.strategyRegistry,
           pluginDigest: loaded.pluginDigest,
-          engineRequest: "number",
+          engineRequest: engine.effectiveId,
           seed: descriptor.seed
         });
         const opened = prepared.open("simulate", `simulate:${descriptor.seed}`, { durationSec: descriptor.horizonSec });
@@ -38508,6 +38821,13 @@ async function refreshBalanceWorkflow(configPath, flags, check = false) {
           throw new Error("Action history exceeded the result budget; pacing cannot be inferred from truncated history");
         const actions = run.actionsLog ?? [];
         const result = {};
+        const monetary = (amount) => {
+          const E = opened.scenario.ctx.E;
+          if (!E.isFinite(amount))
+            throw new Error("Monetary metric overflowed the selected engine");
+          const decimal = E.toString(amount);
+          return engine.effectiveId === "number" ? Number(decimal) : decimal;
+        };
         for (const metric of config.metrics) {
           if (metric.kind === "firstAction" || metric.kind === "firstActionPrefix") {
             const action = actions.find((item) => metric.kind === "firstAction" ? item.actionId === metric.actionId : item.actionId.startsWith(metric.prefix));
@@ -38517,12 +38837,12 @@ async function refreshBalanceWorkflow(configPath, flags, check = false) {
           else if (metric.kind === "actionCount")
             result[metric.id] = actions.length;
           else if (metric.kind === "endWallet")
-            result[metric.id] = Number(run.end.wallet.money.amount);
+            result[metric.id] = monetary(run.end.wallet.money.amount);
           else {
             const worth = opened.scenario.model.netWorth?.(opened.scenario.ctx, run.end);
             if (!worth)
               throw new Error("endNetWorth requires model.netWorth; wallet is not a substitute");
-            result[metric.id] = Number(worth.amount);
+            result[metric.id] = monetary(worth.amount);
           }
         }
         return result;
@@ -38580,7 +38900,7 @@ async function refreshBalanceWorkflow(configPath, flags, check = false) {
 `);
           return { id: variant.id, scenario: name };
         });
-        addArtifact("variants.json", JSON.stringify({ version: 1, engine: "number", seeds: plan.seeds, horizonSec: horizon, strategy: plan.strategy, variants }, null, 2) + `
+        addArtifact("variants.json", JSON.stringify({ version: 1, engine: engine.effectiveId, seeds: plan.seeds, horizonSec: horizon, strategy: plan.strategy, variants }, null, 2) + `
 `);
       }
       return artifacts;
@@ -38595,10 +38915,10 @@ function cell(value) {
 }
 function explain(result) {
   if (result.status === "breach" && result.value !== null) {
-    if (result.min !== undefined && result.value < result.min)
-      return `below the minimum by ${result.min - result.value} ${result.unit}`;
-    if (result.max !== undefined && result.value > result.max)
-      return `above the maximum by ${result.value - result.max} ${result.unit}`;
+    if (result.min !== undefined && comparePacingValues(result.value, result.min) < 0)
+      return typeof result.min === "number" && typeof result.value === "number" ? `below the minimum by ${result.min - result.value} ${result.unit}` : `below the minimum ${result.min} ${result.unit}`;
+    if (result.max !== undefined && comparePacingValues(result.value, result.max) > 0)
+      return typeof result.max === "number" && typeof result.value === "number" ? `above the maximum by ${result.value - result.max} ${result.unit}` : `above the maximum ${result.max} ${result.unit}`;
   }
   if (result.status === "pass")
     return "within the inclusive target bounds";
@@ -38637,6 +38957,7 @@ var balance_default = defineCommand({
   description: "Refresh a typed CSV balance sheet into scenario, pacing checks, and result sheets",
   options: {
     ...pluginOptions(),
+    engine: option(string2().min(1).optional(), { description: "Numeric engine (default: number; explicit: breakInfinity)" }),
     check: option(exports_coerce.boolean().default(false), { description: "Check result freshness without rerunning simulations" }),
     format: option(_enum(["json", "md"]).default("json"), { description: "JSON manifest or human-readable target explanations" })
   },
@@ -39093,6 +39414,7 @@ function compareIdentity2(args) {
   return {
     a: side(args.scenarios.a),
     b: side(args.scenarios.b),
+    ...args.engineId && args.engineId !== "number" ? { engineId: args.engineId } : {},
     pluginDigests: pluginDigestValues(args.loaded.pluginDigest),
     metrics,
     bundle: flags.bundle ?? null,
@@ -39101,9 +39423,16 @@ function compareIdentity2(args) {
   };
 }
 function measureScenario(args) {
+  const requireFinite = (amount, label) => {
+    if (!args.E.isFinite(amount))
+      throw new RangeError(`compare ${label} must be finite in the selected engine`);
+    return amount;
+  };
   const runInput = args.compiled.fresh("economy");
   const run = runScenario(runInput);
   const endWorth = runInput.model.netWorth?.(runInput.ctx, run.end) ?? run.end.wallet.money;
+  requireFinite(run.end.wallet.money.amount, "end money");
+  requireFinite(endWorth.amount, "end net worth");
   let etaSeconds;
   let etaReached;
   if (args.targetWorth) {
@@ -39112,7 +39441,12 @@ function measureScenario(args) {
       unit: etaInput.ctx.unit,
       suffix: { kind: "alphaInfinite", minLen: 2 }
     }).amount;
-    const reachedFn = (s) => args.E.cmp((etaInput.model.netWorth?.(etaInput.ctx, s) ?? s.wallet.money).amount, target) >= 0;
+    requireFinite(target, "ETA target");
+    const reachedFn = (s) => {
+      requireFinite(s.wallet.money.amount, "ETA money");
+      const worth = etaInput.model.netWorth?.(etaInput.ctx, s) ?? s.wallet.money;
+      return args.E.cmp(requireFinite(worth.amount, "ETA net worth"), target) >= 0;
+    };
     const etaRun = runScenario({
       ...etaInput,
       run: {
@@ -39394,6 +39728,7 @@ var compare_default = defineCommand({
   description: "Compare two scenarios via measured simulation metrics",
   options: {
     ...pluginOptions(),
+    engine: option(string2().min(1).optional(), { description: "Numeric engine (default: number; explicit: breakInfinity)" }),
     duration: option(exports_coerce.number().optional(), { description: "Override durationSec" }),
     step: option(exports_coerce.number().optional(), { description: "Override stepSec" }),
     strategy: option(strategySchema, { description: "Override strategy id (greedy|planner|scripted)" }),
@@ -39449,7 +39784,8 @@ var compare_default = defineCommand({
       throw usageError("metric=timeToMilestone requires --milestone-key <key>");
     }
     const scenarios = { a: aScenario, b: bScenario };
-    const identity = compareIdentity2({ scenarios, flags, loaded });
+    const engine = resolveEffectiveEngine({ requested: flags.engine });
+    const identity = compareIdentity2({ scenarios, flags, loaded, engineId: engine.effectiveId });
     const effectiveSeed = flags.seed ?? defaultRunSeed({
       base: {
         command: "compare",
@@ -39469,9 +39805,12 @@ var compare_default = defineCommand({
           milestoneKey: undefined
         }
       },
-      runs: [{ identity, defaults: compareIdentity2({ scenarios, flags: { "max-duration": DEFAULT_MAX_DURATION }, loaded }) }]
+      runs: [{ identity, defaults: {
+        ...compareIdentity2({ scenarios, flags: { "max-duration": DEFAULT_MAX_DURATION }, loaded }),
+        engineId: "number"
+      } }]
     });
-    const E = createNumberEngine();
+    const E = engine.engine;
     const aCompiled = compileComparableScenario({
       scenario: aScenario,
       E,
@@ -40329,7 +40668,7 @@ function parseHorizons(raw) {
 }
 var DEFAULT_LTV_HORIZONS = "30m,2h,24h,7d,30d,90d";
 function ltvUncertaintyDraws(scenario, draws) {
-  const uncertainty = deriveMonetizationConfig(scenario).uncertainty;
+  const uncertainty = deriveMonetizationConfig2(scenario).uncertainty;
   return uncertainty.enabled || draws !== undefined ? draws ?? uncertainty.draws : null;
 }
 function ltvStageInputs(scenario, horizons, draws) {
@@ -40391,7 +40730,7 @@ function runLtvAnalysis(args) {
   const horizons = parseHorizons(args.horizonsRaw);
   const stepSec = args.step ?? args.compiled.run.stepSec;
   const runFast = resolveFastMode(args.fast, args.compiled.run.fast);
-  const monetizationConfig = deriveMonetizationConfig(args.scenario);
+  const monetizationConfig = deriveMonetizationConfig2(args.scenario);
   const uncertainEnabled = monetizationConfig.uncertainty.enabled || args.draws !== undefined;
   const draws = args.draws ?? monetizationConfig.uncertainty.draws;
   let state = args.compiled.initial;
@@ -40451,12 +40790,12 @@ function runLtvAnalysis(args) {
     const endWorthLog10 = args.compiled.ctx.E.absLog10(worth.amount);
     const progression = progressionFactor(startWorthLog10, endWorthLog10, monetizationConfig.revenue.progressionLogSpan);
     const horizonDays = h.seconds / 86400;
-    const point = estimateLtvPerUser({
+    const point = estimateLtvPerUser2({
       config: monetizationConfig,
       horizonDays,
       progression
     });
-    const distribution = uncertainEnabled && draws > 1 ? estimateLtvDistribution({
+    const distribution = uncertainEnabled && draws > 1 ? estimateLtvDistribution2({
       config: monetizationConfig,
       horizonDays,
       progression,
@@ -42109,6 +42448,7 @@ var tune_default = defineCommand({
   description: "Tune strategy parameters with objective scoring",
   options: {
     ...pluginOptions(),
+    engine: option(string2().min(1).optional(), { description: "Numeric engine (default: number; explicit: breakInfinity)" }),
     tune: option(string2().optional(), { description: "TuneSpec file path (.json|.yaml)" }),
     wizard: option(exports_coerce.boolean().default(false), {
       description: "Interactively generate a TuneSpec before tuning"
@@ -42164,11 +42504,14 @@ var tune_default = defineCommand({
     const tuneSpecInput = wizardResult?.tuneSpec ?? await readScenarioFile(tunePath);
     const baselinePath = flags["baseline-artifact"] ? resolve21(flags["baseline-artifact"]) : undefined;
     const baselineRaw = baselinePath ? await readJsonFile(baselinePath) : undefined;
+    const engine = resolveEffectiveEngine({ requested: flags.engine });
+    const engineIdentity = engine.effectiveId === "number" ? {} : { engineId: engine.effectiveId };
     const seed = flags.seed ?? deriveDeterministicSeed({
       command: "tune",
       scenario: scenarioInput,
       tuneSpec: tuneSpecInput,
       options: {
+        ...engineIdentity,
         baselineArtifact: baselineRaw === undefined ? undefined : hashContent(baselineRaw),
         regressionTolerance: flags["regression-tolerance"]
       }
@@ -42176,7 +42519,7 @@ var tune_default = defineCommand({
     const runId = flags["run-id"] ?? deriveDeterministicRunId({
       command: "tune",
       seed,
-      scope: { scenario: scenarioInput, tuneSpec: tuneSpecInput, pluginDigests: Object.values(loaded.pluginDigest) }
+      scope: { scenario: scenarioInput, tuneSpec: tuneSpecInput, pluginDigests: Object.values(loaded.pluginDigest), ...engineIdentity }
     });
     const outputMeta = buildOutputMeta({
       command: "tune",
@@ -42188,7 +42531,7 @@ var tune_default = defineCommand({
       pluginDigest: loaded.pluginDigest
     });
     const result = await cmdTune({
-      E: createNumberEngine(),
+      E: engine.engine,
       scenarioInput,
       tuneSpecInput,
       modelRegistry: loaded.modelRegistry,
@@ -44105,4 +44448,4 @@ export {
   cli2 as cli
 };
 
-//# debugId=4AAADDD1336AF66164756E2164756E21
+//# debugId=0936659FB5366DD764756E2164756E21