@idlekit/cli 0.5.0 → 0.5.1

package/dist/main.js

@@ -19440,448 +19440,806 @@ function compareScenarios(args) {
   };
 }
 
-// ../core/dist/index.js
-var init_dist2 = __esm(() => {
-  init_types();
-  init_breakInfinity2();
-  init_breakEternity2();
-  init_types5();
-  init_types6();
-  init_emitter();
-  init_tickMoney2();
-  init_suffixer();
-  init_formatMoney2();
-  init_parseMoney2();
-  init_visibilityTracker2();
-  init_moneyState();
-  init_simState();
-  init_types7();
-  init_validate();
-  init_concreteValidator();
-  init_scenarioContract();
-  init_compile2();
-  init_simulator();
-  init_advance();
-  init_step();
-  init_stepTypes();
-  init_offline();
-  init_session();
-  init_monteCarlo();
-  init_executionBackend();
-  init_integrationMatrix();
-  init_runFactory();
-  init_constraints();
-  init_observation();
-  init_types8();
-  init_contracts();
-  init_stability();
-  init_scripted();
-  init_greedy();
-  init_planner();
-  init_params();
-  init_builtins();
-  init_tuneSpec();
-  init_validate2();
-  init_objective();
-  init_params2();
-  init_builtins2();
-  init_tuner();
-  init_randomSearch();
-  init_runner();
-  init_eta();
-  init_prestigeCycle();
-  init_resetCycle();
-  init_resetOptimization();
-  init_distribution();
-  init_experiment();
-  init_sensitivity();
-  init_growthFit();
-  init_contracts2();
-  init_metrics();
-  init_registry();
-  init_analyzers();
-  init_inspect();
-  init_checks3();
-  init_judge();
-  init_flow();
-  init_jevAdvisory();
-});
-
-// src/runtime/bun.ts
-var {$ } = globalThis.Bun;
-import { dirname } from "path";
-async function readTextFile(path) {
-  return Bun.file(path).text();
-}
-async function readJsonFile(path) {
-  return Bun.file(path).json();
-}
-async function writeTextFile(path, body) {
-  try {
-    await ensureDir(dirname(path));
-    await Bun.write(path, body);
-  } catch (error) {
-    throw cliError("OUTPUT_WRITE_FAILED", `Unable to write output file: ${path}`, {
-      detail: errorDetail(error),
-      hint: "Choose a writable output path and check that its parent is a directory.",
-      cause: error
-    });
-  }
-}
-function writeStdout(body) {
-  return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
-    process.stdout.write(body, (error) => error ? reject(error) : resolve());
-  });
-}
-async function ensureDir(path) {
-  await $`mkdir -p ${path}`.quiet();
-}
-async function fileExists(path) {
-  return Bun.file(path).exists();
-}
-function sha256Hex(value) {
-  const hasher = new Bun.CryptoHasher("sha256");
-  hasher.update(value);
-  return hasher.digest("hex");
-}
-function runText(args, opts) {
-  const proc = Bun.spawnSync(args, {
-    cwd: opts?.cwd,
-    env: opts?.env,
-    stdout: "pipe",
-    stderr: "pipe",
-    maxBuffer: MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES
-  });
-  if (proc.exitCode !== 0) {
-    const stderr = proc.stderr.toString().trim();
-    const stdout = proc.stdout.toString().trim();
-    const detail = stderr || stdout || `command failed with exit code ${proc.exitCode}`;
-    throw new Error(detail);
-  }
-  return proc.stdout.toString();
+// ../core/dist/ltv/projection.js
+function clamp012(v) {
+  if (v < 0)
+    return 0;
+  if (v > 1)
+    return 1;
+  return v;
 }
-var MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES;
-var init_bun = __esm(() => {
-  init_errors3();
-  MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES = 8 * 1024 * 1024;
-});
-
-// package.json
-var require_package = __commonJS(function(exports, module) {
-  module.exports = {
-    name: "@idlekit/cli",
-    version: "0.5.0",
-    description: "Bun-first idk CLI for idle game scenario validation, simulation, tuning, and reporting.",
-    license: "MIT",
-    type: "module",
-    files: [
-      "dist",
-      "README.md",
-      "LICENSE"
-    ],
-    bin: {
-      idk: "dist/main.js"
-    },
-    repository: {
-      type: "git",
-      url: "git+https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit.git",
-      directory: "packages/cli"
-    },
-    homepage: "https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit/tree/main/packages/cli#readme",
-    bugs: {
-      url: "https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit/issues"
-    },
-    keywords: [
-      "bun",
-      "idle-game",
-      "incremental-game",
-      "cli",
-      "economy-simulator",
-      "game-balancing",
-      "simulation"
-    ],
-    publishConfig: {
-      access: "public"
+function deriveMonetizationConfig(scenario) {
+  const m = scenario.monetization;
+  const q = (m?.uncertainty?.quantiles ?? [0.5, 0.9]).filter((x) => typeof x === "number");
+  const quantiles = q.length > 0 ? [...new Set(q)].sort((a, b) => a - b) : [0.5, 0.9];
+  return {
+    cohorts: {
+      baseUsers: m?.cohorts?.baseUsers ?? 1
     },
-    engines: {
-      bun: ">=1.4.2"
+    retention: {
+      d1: m?.retention?.d1 ?? 0.42,
+      d7: m?.retention?.d7 ?? 0.2,
+      d30: m?.retention?.d30 ?? 0.09,
+      d90: m?.retention?.d90 ?? 0.04,
+      longTailDailyDecay: m?.retention?.longTailDailyDecay ?? 0.02
     },
-    scripts: {
-      dev: "bun src/main.ts",
-      "dev:watch": "bun --watch src/main.ts",
-      "generate:check": "bun scripts/command-check.ts",
-      "doctor:completions": "bun scripts/command-check.ts",
-      "review:smoke": "bun scripts/review-smoke.ts",
-      build: "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --outdir dist --sourcemap",
-      "build:bin": "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --entry src/bin.ts --outdir dist/bin --targets native",
-      typecheck: "ttsc -p tsconfig.json --noEmit",
-      test: "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --outdir .test-bundle && IDLEKIT_CLI_ENTRY=.test-bundle/main.js bun test --timeout 90000 src",
-      prepack: "bun run build && cd ../.. && bun tools/package-manifest.ts prepare packages/cli",
-      postpack: "cd ../.. && bun tools/package-manifest.ts restore packages/cli"
+    revenue: {
+      payerConversion: m?.revenue?.payerConversion ?? 0.03,
+      arppuDaily: m?.revenue?.arppuDaily ?? 0.7,
+      adArpDau: m?.revenue?.adArpDau ?? 0.02,
+      platformFeeRate: m?.revenue?.platformFeeRate ?? 0.3,
+      grossMarginRate: m?.revenue?.grossMarginRate ?? 0.92,
+      progressionRevenueLift: m?.revenue?.progressionRevenueLift ?? 0.4,
+      progressionLogSpan: m?.revenue?.progressionLogSpan ?? 6
     },
-    dependencies: {
-      "@clack/prompts": "1.8.1",
-      "@gunshi/plugin-completion": "0.37.3",
-      "@gunshi/plugin-suggestion": "0.37.3",
-      "@idlekit/core": "0.4.1",
-      ajv: "^8.20.0",
-      gunshi: "0.37.3",
-      "proper-lockfile": "4.1.2",
-      yaml: "^2.9.1",
-      zod: "^4.6.5"
+    acquisition: {
+      cpi: m?.acquisition?.cpi ?? 0
     },
-    devDependencies: {
-      "@types/proper-lockfile": "4.1.4"
+    uncertainty: {
+      enabled: m?.uncertainty?.enabled ?? false,
+      draws: m?.uncertainty?.draws ?? 300,
+      quantiles,
+      seed: m?.uncertainty?.seed,
+      sigma: {
+        retention: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.retention ?? 0.08,
+        conversion: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.conversion ?? 0.12,
+        arppu: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.arppu ?? 0.2,
+        ad: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.ad ?? 0.15
+      },
+      correlation: {
+        retentionConversion: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionConversion ?? 0,
+        retentionArppu: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionArppu ?? 0,
+        retentionAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionAd ?? 0,
+        conversionArppu: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.conversionArppu ?? 0,
+        conversionAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.conversionAd ?? 0,
+        arppuAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.arppuAd ?? 0
+      }
     }
   };
-});
-
-// src/runtime/selfCli.ts
-import { existsSync } from "fs";
-import { dirname as dirname3, resolve as resolve2 } from "path";
-function currentEntry() {
-  return Bun.main;
 }
-function isJavaScriptEntry(entry) {
-  return entry.endsWith(".js") || entry.endsWith(".mjs");
+function retentionAtDay(ret, day) {
+  if (day <= 0)
+    return 1;
+  if (day <= 1)
+    return ret.d1;
+  if (day <= 7)
+    return ret.d1 + (ret.d7 - ret.d1) * (day - 1) / 6;
+  if (day <= 30)
+    return ret.d7 + (ret.d30 - ret.d7) * (day - 7) / 23;
+  if (day <= 90)
+    return ret.d30 + (ret.d90 - ret.d30) * (day - 30) / 60;
+  const extra = day - 90;
+  return clamp012(ret.d90 * Math.exp(-ret.longTailDailyDecay * extra));
 }
-function isNativeEntry(entry) {
-  return entry.includes("$bunfs") || entry.includes("~BUN");
+function progressionFactor(startWorthLog10, endWorthLog10, span) {
+  if (!Number.isFinite(startWorthLog10) || !Number.isFinite(endWorthLog10) || !Number.isFinite(span) || span <= 0) {
+    return 0;
+  }
+  return clamp012((endWorthLog10 - startWorthLog10) / span);
 }
-function isBundledCliProcess(entry = currentEntry()) {
-  return isJavaScriptEntry(entry) || isNativeEntry(entry);
+function estimateLtvPerUser(args) {
+  const { config, horizonDays } = args;
+  const progression = clamp012(args.progression);
+  const arppuDaily = config.revenue.arppuDaily * (1 + progression * config.revenue.progressionRevenueLift);
+  const adArpDau = config.revenue.adArpDau * (1 + progression * config.revenue.progressionRevenueLift * 0.5);
+  const payerConversion = config.revenue.payerConversion;
+  const fullDays = Math.floor(Math.max(0, horizonDays));
+  const remainder = Math.max(0, horizonDays - fullDays);
+  let gross = 0;
+  for (let day = 1;day <= fullDays; day++) {
+    const active = retentionAtDay(config.retention, day);
+    gross += active * (payerConversion * arppuDaily + adArpDau);
+  }
+  if (remainder > 0) {
+    const active = retentionAtDay(config.retention, fullDays + 1);
+    gross += remainder * active * (payerConversion * arppuDaily + adArpDau);
+  }
+  const net = gross * (1 - config.revenue.platformFeeRate) * config.revenue.grossMarginRate;
+  const ltv = net - config.acquisition.cpi;
+  return {
+    cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser: gross,
+    cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser: net,
+    cumulativeLtvPerUser: ltv
+  };
 }
-function cliPackageRoot(entry = currentEntry()) {
-  if (isNativeEntry(entry))
-    return process.cwd();
-  if (isBundledCliProcess(entry))
-    return resolve2(dirname3(entry), "..");
-  return resolve2(import.meta.dir, "../..");
+
+// ../core/dist/ltv/uncertainty.js
+function clamp013(v) {
+  if (v < 0)
+    return 0;
+  if (v > 1)
+    return 1;
+  return v;
 }
-function bundledCliConfig(entry) {
-  const config = resolve2(dirname3(entry), "../../../tools/bundled-cli-bunfig.toml");
-  if (!existsSync(config))
-    return;
-  return config;
+function clampCorrelation(v) {
+  if (!Number.isFinite(v))
+    return 0;
+  if (v < -1)
+    return -1;
+  if (v > 1)
+    return 1;
+  return v;
 }
-function selfCliCommand(args, entry = currentEntry()) {
-  if (isNativeEntry(entry))
-    return [process.execPath, ...args];
-  const bun = process.argv[0] ?? "bun";
-  if (isJavaScriptEntry(entry)) {
-    const config = bundledCliConfig(entry);
-    if (config)
-      return [bun, `--config=${config}`, entry, ...args];
-    return [bun, entry, ...args];
+function randNormal(rng) {
+  const u1 = Math.max(0.000000000001, rng());
+  const u2 = Math.max(0.000000000001, rng());
+  return Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(u1)) * Math.cos(2 * Math.PI * u2);
+}
+function buildCorrelationMatrix(base) {
+  const rc = clampCorrelation(base.retentionConversion);
+  const ra = clampCorrelation(base.retentionArppu);
+  const rd = clampCorrelation(base.retentionAd);
+  const ca = clampCorrelation(base.conversionArppu);
+  const cd = clampCorrelation(base.conversionAd);
+  const ad = clampCorrelation(base.arppuAd);
+  return [
+    [1, rc, ra, rd],
+    [rc, 1, ca, cd],
+    [ra, ca, 1, ad],
+    [rd, cd, ad, 1]
+  ];
+}
+function withOffDiagonalScale(matrix, alpha) {
+  return matrix.map((row, i) => row.map((v, j) => {
+    if (i === j)
+      return 1;
+    return v * alpha;
+  }));
+}
+function cholesky4(matrix) {
+  const n = 4;
+  const l = Array.from({ length: n }, () => Array.from({ length: n }, () => 0));
+  for (let i = 0;i < n; i++) {
+    for (let j = 0;j <= i; j++) {
+      let sum = 0;
+      for (let k = 0;k < j; k++) {
+        sum += (l[i]?.[k] ?? 0) * (l[j]?.[k] ?? 0);
+      }
+      if (i === j) {
+        const val = (matrix[i]?.[i] ?? 0) - sum;
+        if (val <= 0.000000001)
+          return null;
+        l[i][j] = Math.sqrt(val);
+      } else {
+        const denom = l[j]?.[j] ?? 0;
+        if (Math.abs(denom) < 0.000000001)
+          return null;
+        l[i][j] = ((matrix[i]?.[j] ?? 0) - sum) / denom;
+      }
+    }
   }
-  const bunfigApplies = resolve2(process.cwd()) === CLI_ROOT;
-  if (entry.endsWith(".ts") && !bunfigApplies) {
-    return [bun, "--preload", "@ttsc/unplugin/bun-register", entry, ...args];
+  return l;
+}
+function multiplyLowerTriangular(l, z) {
+  const out = [0, 0, 0, 0];
+  for (let i = 0;i < 4; i++) {
+    let sum = 0;
+    for (let j = 0;j <= i; j++) {
+      sum += (l[i]?.[j] ?? 0) * (z[j] ?? 0);
+    }
+    out[i] = sum;
   }
-  return [bun, entry, ...args];
+  return out;
 }
-function runSelfCli(args) {
-  const proc = Bun.spawnSync(selfCliCommand(args), {
-    cwd: process.cwd(),
-    stdout: "pipe",
-    stderr: "pipe",
-    env: process.env,
-    maxBuffer: MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2
-  });
+function sampleCorrelatedNormals(rng, corr) {
+  const z = [randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng)];
+  const matrix = buildCorrelationMatrix(corr);
+  let l = cholesky4(matrix);
+  let alpha = 0.99;
+  while (!l && alpha > 0.000001) {
+    l = cholesky4(withOffDiagonalScale(matrix, alpha));
+    alpha *= 0.8;
+  }
+  if (!l) {
+    return {
+      retention: z[0] ?? 0,
+      conversion: z[1] ?? 0,
+      arppu: z[2] ?? 0,
+      ad: z[3] ?? 0
+    };
+  }
+  const c = multiplyLowerTriangular(l, z);
   return {
-    exitCode: proc.exitCode,
-    stdout: proc.stdout.toString(),
-    stderr: proc.stderr.toString()
+    retention: c[0] ?? 0,
+    conversion: c[1] ?? 0,
+    arppu: c[2] ?? 0,
+    ad: c[3] ?? 0
   };
 }
-var CLI_ROOT, MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2;
-var init_selfCli = __esm(() => {
-  CLI_ROOT = resolve2(import.meta.dir, "../..");
-  MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2 = 8 * 1024 * 1024;
-});
-
-// src/io/outputMeta.ts
-import { dirname as dirname4, resolve as resolve3 } from "path";
-function repoRoot() {
-  if (isBundledCliProcess())
-    return resolve3(dirname4(Bun.main), "../..");
-  return resolve3(import.meta.dir, "../../..");
+function applyLogNormalShock(mean, sigma, z) {
+  if (sigma <= 0)
+    return mean;
+  return mean * Math.exp(sigma * z - 0.5 * sigma * sigma);
 }
-function stableStringify(value) {
-  if (value === null || typeof value !== "object") {
-    return JSON.stringify(value);
+function makeUncertainConfig(base, rng) {
+  const shock = sampleCorrelatedNormals(rng, base.uncertainty.correlation);
+  const d1 = clamp013(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d1, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention));
+  const d7 = Math.min(d1, clamp013(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d7, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
+  const d30 = Math.min(d7, clamp013(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d30, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
+  const d90 = Math.min(d30, clamp013(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d90, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
+  return {
+    ...base,
+    retention: {
+      ...base.retention,
+      d1,
+      d7,
+      d30,
+      d90
+    },
+    revenue: {
+      ...base.revenue,
+      payerConversion: clamp013(applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.payerConversion, base.uncertainty.sigma.conversion, shock.conversion)),
+      arppuDaily: Math.max(0, applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.arppuDaily, base.uncertainty.sigma.arppu, shock.arppu)),
+      adArpDau: Math.max(0, applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.adArpDau, base.uncertainty.sigma.ad, shock.ad))
+    }
+  };
+}
+function quantileFromSorted(sorted, q) {
+  if (sorted.length === 0)
+    return 0;
+  const idx = Math.max(0, Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.floor((sorted.length - 1) * q)));
+  return sorted[idx] ?? 0;
+}
+function estimateLtvDistribution(args) {
+  const rng = mulberry32(args.seed);
+  const grossSamples = [];
+  const netSamples = [];
+  const ltvSamples = [];
+  const draws = Math.max(1, args.draws);
+  for (let i = 0;i < draws; i++) {
+    const sampled = makeUncertainConfig(args.config, rng);
+    const point = estimateLtvPerUser({
+      config: sampled,
+      horizonDays: args.horizonDays,
+      progression: args.progression
+    });
+    grossSamples.push(point.cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser);
+    netSamples.push(point.cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser);
+    ltvSamples.push(point.cumulativeLtvPerUser);
   }
-  if (Array.isArray(value)) {
-    return `[${value.map((x) => stableStringify(x)).join(",")}]`;
+  const avg = (arr) => arr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / Math.max(1, arr.length);
+  const sortedLtv = [...ltvSamples].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  const byQuantile = {};
+  for (const q of args.quantiles) {
+    byQuantile[`q${Math.round(q * 100)}`] = quantileFromSorted(sortedLtv, q);
   }
-  const entries = Object.entries(value).sort(([a], [b]) => a < b ? -1 : a > b ? 1 : 0);
-  return `{${entries.map(([k, v]) => `${JSON.stringify(k)}:${stableStringify(v)}`).join(",")}}`;
+  return {
+    mean: {
+      cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser: avg(grossSamples),
+      cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser: avg(netSamples),
+      cumulativeLtvPerUser: avg(ltvSamples)
+    },
+    quantiles: byQuantile
+  };
 }
-function sha256(value) {
-  return sha256Hex(value);
+var init_uncertainty = () => {};
+
+// ../core/dist/ltv/public.js
+function assertMonetization(monetization) {
+  const valid = validateScenarioV1({
+    schemaVersion: 1,
+    unit: { code: "LTV" },
+    policy: { mode: "drop" },
+    model: { id: "ltv-input", version: 1 },
+    initial: { wallet: { unit: "LTV", amount: "0" } },
+    clock: { stepSec: 1, durationSec: 1 },
+    monetization
+  });
+  if (!valid.ok)
+    throw new RangeError(valid.issues.map((issue) => issue.message).join("; "));
 }
-function resolveGitSha() {
-  if (hasResolvedGitSha)
-    return cachedGitSha ?? UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
-  hasResolvedGitSha = true;
-  const envSha = process.env.GITHUB_SHA?.trim();
-  if (envSha) {
-    cachedGitSha = envSha;
-    return cachedGitSha;
+function assertQuantileValues(quantiles) {
+  if (quantiles.length === 0)
+    throw new RangeError("quantiles must be nonempty and in 0..1");
+  for (const q of quantiles) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(q) || q < 0 || q > 1)
+      throw new RangeError("quantiles must be nonempty and in 0..1");
   }
-  try {
-    cachedGitSha = runText(["git", "rev-parse", "--short", "HEAD"], {
-      cwd: REPO_ROOT,
-      env: process.env
-    }).trim();
-  } catch {
-    cachedGitSha = UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
+}
+function assertConfig(config) {
+  const { retention, ...other } = config;
+  for (const day of ["d1", "d7", "d30", "d90"]) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(retention[day]) || retention[day] < 0 || retention[day] > 1) {
+      throw new RangeError(`retention.${day} must be finite and in 0..1`);
+    }
   }
-  return cachedGitSha ?? UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
+  if (!Number.isFinite(retention.longTailDailyDecay) || retention.longTailDailyDecay < 0) {
+    throw new RangeError("retention.longTailDailyDecay must be finite and >= 0");
+  }
+  const { quantiles, ...uncertainty } = other.uncertainty;
+  assertQuantileValues(quantiles);
+  assertMonetization({ ...other, uncertainty });
 }
-function hashContent(value) {
-  return sha256(stableStringify(value));
+function deriveMonetizationConfig2(scenario) {
+  assertMonetization(scenario.monetization ?? {});
+  const config = deriveMonetizationConfig(scenario);
+  assertConfig(config);
+  return config;
 }
-function deriveDeterministicSeed(value) {
-  const digest = hashContent(value);
-  return Number.parseInt(digest.slice(0, 8), 16) >>> 0;
-}
-function deriveDeterministicRunId(args) {
-  const suffix = hashContent({
-    command: args.command,
-    seed: args.seed,
-    scope: args.scope ?? null
-  }).slice(0, 8);
-  return `${args.command}-${args.seed.toString(36)}-${suffix}`;
+function assertPoint(args) {
+  assertConfig(args.config);
+  if (!Number.isFinite(args.horizonDays) || args.horizonDays < 0 || args.horizonDays > 36500) {
+    throw new RangeError("horizonDays must be finite and in 0..36500");
+  }
+  if (!Number.isFinite(args.progression))
+    throw new RangeError("progression must be finite");
 }
-function outputSchemaRefForCommand(command) {
-  return OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF[command];
+function finiteResult(result) {
+  if (!Object.values(result).every((value) => typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value))) {
+    throw new RangeError("LTV calculation overflowed; reduce the input magnitudes");
+  }
+  return result;
 }
-function buildOutputMeta(args) {
-  const scenarioHash = (() => {
-    if (args.scenario !== undefined)
-      return hashContent(args.scenario);
-    if (args.scenarios) {
-      const out = {};
-      for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(args.scenarios)) {
-        out[k] = hashContent(v);
-      }
-      return out;
-    }
-    return;
-  })();
-  return {
-    command: args.command,
-    generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
-    contractVersion: OUTPUT_CONTRACT_VERSION,
-    schemaRef: args.schemaRef ?? outputSchemaRefForCommand(args.command),
-    cliVersion,
-    gitSha: resolveGitSha(),
-    runId: args.runId,
-    seed: args.seed,
-    scenarioPath: args.scenarioPath,
-    scenarioHash,
-    tuneSpecHash: args.tuneSpec !== undefined ? hashContent(args.tuneSpec) : undefined,
-    telemetryHash: args.telemetry !== undefined ? hashContent(args.telemetry) : undefined,
-    pluginDigest: args.pluginDigest ?? {},
-    ...args.effectiveRunHash !== undefined ? { effectiveRunHash: args.effectiveRunHash } : {},
-    ...args.effectiveEngine !== undefined ? { effectiveEngine: args.effectiveEngine } : {},
-    ...args.stageScope !== undefined ? { stageScope: args.stageScope } : {}
-  };
+function estimateLtvPerUser2(args) {
+  assertPoint(args);
+  return finiteResult(estimateLtvPerUser(args));
+}
+function estimateLtvDistribution2(args) {
+  assertPoint(args);
+  if (!Number.isSafeInteger(args.draws) || args.draws < 1 || args.draws > 1e5 || args.draws * Math.max(1, Math.ceil(args.horizonDays)) > 1e7) {
+    throw new RangeError("draws must be 1..100000 and draws \xD7 ceil(horizonDays) at most 10000000");
+  }
+  if (!Number.isFinite(args.seed))
+    throw new RangeError("seed must be finite");
+  if (args.quantiles.length > 101)
+    throw new RangeError("quantiles exceed the 101 distinct percent keys");
+  assertQuantileValues(args.quantiles);
+  if (new Set(args.quantiles.map((q) => Math.round(q * 100))).size !== args.quantiles.length) {
+    throw new RangeError("quantiles must be nonempty, in 0..1 and have distinct rounded percent keys");
+  }
+  const result = estimateLtvDistribution(args);
+  finiteResult(result.mean);
+  finiteResult(result.quantiles);
+  return result;
 }
-var import_package, REPO_ROOT, OUTPUT_CONTRACT_VERSION = "1.4.0", UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA = "unknown", OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF, cachedGitSha, hasResolvedGitSha = false, cliVersion;
-var init_outputMeta = __esm(() => {
-  init_bun();
-  init_selfCli();
-  import_package = __toESM(require_package(), 1);
-  REPO_ROOT = repoRoot();
-  OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF = {
-    simulate: "docs/schemas/simulate.output.schema.json",
-    eta: "docs/schemas/eta.output.schema.json",
-    compare: "docs/schemas/compare.output.schema.json",
-    doctor: "docs/schemas/doctor.output.schema.json",
-    evaluate: "docs/schemas/evaluate.output.schema.json",
-    "judge.jev": "docs/schemas/jev.judge.output.schema.json",
-    "execution.batch": "docs/worker-execution.md",
-    experience: "docs/schemas/experience.output.schema.json",
-    "setup.completions": "docs/schemas/setup.output.schema.json",
-    "setup.plugin-trust": "docs/schemas/setup.output.schema.json",
-    tune: "docs/schemas/tune.output.schema.json",
-    ltv: "docs/schemas/ltv.output.schema.json",
-    calibrate: "docs/schemas/calibrate.output.schema.json",
-    "kpi.regress": "docs/schemas/kpi.regress.output.schema.json",
-    "replay.verify": "docs/schemas/replay.verify.output.schema.json"
-  };
-  cliVersion = import_package.default.version ?? "0.0.0";
+var init_public = __esm(() => {
+  init_validate();
+  init_uncertainty();
 });
 
-// ../../node_modules/.bun/yaml@2.9.1/node_modules/yaml/dist/nodes/identity.js
-var require_identity = __commonJS(function(exports) {
-  var ALIAS = Symbol.for("yaml.alias");
-  var DOC = Symbol.for("yaml.document");
-  var MAP = Symbol.for("yaml.map");
-  var PAIR = Symbol.for("yaml.pair");
-  var SCALAR = Symbol.for("yaml.scalar");
-  var SEQ = Symbol.for("yaml.seq");
-  var NODE_TYPE = Symbol.for("yaml.node.type");
-  var isAlias = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === ALIAS;
-  var isDocument = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === DOC;
-  var isMap = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === MAP;
-  var isPair = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === PAIR;
-  var isScalar = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === SCALAR;
-  var isSeq = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === SEQ;
-  function isCollection(node) {
-    if (node && typeof node === "object")
-      switch (node[NODE_TYPE]) {
-        case MAP:
-        case SEQ:
-          return true;
-      }
-    return false;
+// ../core/dist/index.js
+var init_dist2 = __esm(() => {
+  init_types();
+  init_breakInfinity2();
+  init_breakEternity2();
+  init_types5();
+  init_types6();
+  init_emitter();
+  init_tickMoney2();
+  init_suffixer();
+  init_formatMoney2();
+  init_parseMoney2();
+  init_visibilityTracker2();
+  init_moneyState();
+  init_simState();
+  init_types7();
+  init_validate();
+  init_concreteValidator();
+  init_scenarioContract();
+  init_compile2();
+  init_simulator();
+  init_advance();
+  init_step();
+  init_stepTypes();
+  init_offline();
+  init_session();
+  init_monteCarlo();
+  init_executionBackend();
+  init_integrationMatrix();
+  init_runFactory();
+  init_constraints();
+  init_observation();
+  init_types8();
+  init_contracts();
+  init_stability();
+  init_scripted();
+  init_greedy();
+  init_planner();
+  init_params();
+  init_builtins();
+  init_tuneSpec();
+  init_validate2();
+  init_objective();
+  init_params2();
+  init_builtins2();
+  init_tuner();
+  init_randomSearch();
+  init_runner();
+  init_eta();
+  init_prestigeCycle();
+  init_resetCycle();
+  init_resetOptimization();
+  init_distribution();
+  init_experiment();
+  init_sensitivity();
+  init_growthFit();
+  init_contracts2();
+  init_metrics();
+  init_registry();
+  init_analyzers();
+  init_inspect();
+  init_checks3();
+  init_judge();
+  init_flow();
+  init_jevAdvisory();
+  init_public();
+});
+
+// src/runtime/bun.ts
+var {$ } = globalThis.Bun;
+import { dirname } from "path";
+async function readTextFile(path) {
+  return Bun.file(path).text();
+}
+async function readJsonFile(path) {
+  return Bun.file(path).json();
+}
+async function writeTextFile(path, body) {
+  try {
+    await ensureDir(dirname(path));
+    await Bun.write(path, body);
+  } catch (error) {
+    throw cliError("OUTPUT_WRITE_FAILED", `Unable to write output file: ${path}`, {
+      detail: errorDetail(error),
+      hint: "Choose a writable output path and check that its parent is a directory.",
+      cause: error
+    });
   }
-  function isNode(node) {
-    if (node && typeof node === "object")
-      switch (node[NODE_TYPE]) {
-        case ALIAS:
-        case MAP:
-        case SCALAR:
-        case SEQ:
-          return true;
-      }
-    return false;
+}
+function writeStdout(body) {
+  return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
+    process.stdout.write(body, (error) => error ? reject(error) : resolve());
+  });
+}
+async function ensureDir(path) {
+  await $`mkdir -p ${path}`.quiet();
+}
+async function fileExists(path) {
+  return Bun.file(path).exists();
+}
+function sha256Hex(value) {
+  const hasher = new Bun.CryptoHasher("sha256");
+  hasher.update(value);
+  return hasher.digest("hex");
+}
+function runText(args, opts) {
+  const proc = Bun.spawnSync(args, {
+    cwd: opts?.cwd,
+    env: opts?.env,
+    stdout: "pipe",
+    stderr: "pipe",
+    maxBuffer: MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES
+  });
+  if (proc.exitCode !== 0) {
+    const stderr = proc.stderr.toString().trim();
+    const stdout = proc.stdout.toString().trim();
+    const detail = stderr || stdout || `command failed with exit code ${proc.exitCode}`;
+    throw new Error(detail);
   }
-  var hasAnchor = (node) => (isScalar(node) || isCollection(node)) && !!node.anchor;
-  exports.ALIAS = ALIAS;
-  exports.DOC = DOC;
-  exports.MAP = MAP;
-  exports.NODE_TYPE = NODE_TYPE;
-  exports.PAIR = PAIR;
-  exports.SCALAR = SCALAR;
-  exports.SEQ = SEQ;
-  exports.hasAnchor = hasAnchor;
-  exports.isAlias = isAlias;
-  exports.isCollection = isCollection;
-  exports.isDocument = isDocument;
-  exports.isMap = isMap;
-  exports.isNode = isNode;
-  exports.isPair = isPair;
-  exports.isScalar = isScalar;
-  exports.isSeq = isSeq;
+  return proc.stdout.toString();
+}
+var MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES;
+var init_bun = __esm(() => {
+  init_errors3();
+  MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES = 8 * 1024 * 1024;
 });
 
-// ../../node_modules/.bun/yaml@2.9.1/node_modules/yaml/dist/visit.js
-var require_visit = __commonJS(function(exports) {
-  var identity = require_identity();
-  var BREAK = Symbol("break visit");
-  var SKIP = Symbol("skip children");
-  var REMOVE = Symbol("remove node");
-  function visit(node, visitor) {
-    const visitor_ = initVisitor(visitor);
-    if (identity.isDocument(node)) {
-      const cd = visit_(null, node.contents, visitor_, Object.freeze([node]));
-      if (cd === REMOVE)
-        node.contents = null;
-    } else
+// package.json
+var require_package = __commonJS(function(exports, module) {
+  module.exports = {
+    name: "@idlekit/cli",
+    version: "0.5.1",
+    description: "Bun-first idk CLI for idle game scenario validation, simulation, tuning, and reporting.",
+    license: "MIT",
+    type: "module",
+    files: [
+      "dist",
+      "README.md",
+      "LICENSE"
+    ],
+    bin: {
+      idk: "dist/main.js"
+    },
+    repository: {
+      type: "git",
+      url: "git+https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit.git",
+      directory: "packages/cli"
+    },
+    homepage: "https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit/tree/main/packages/cli#readme",
+    bugs: {
+      url: "https://github.com/imjlk/idlekit/issues"
+    },
+    keywords: [
+      "bun",
+      "idle-game",
+      "incremental-game",
+      "cli",
+      "economy-simulator",
+      "game-balancing",
+      "simulation"
+    ],
+    publishConfig: {
+      access: "public"
+    },
+    engines: {
+      bun: ">=1.4.2"
+    },
+    scripts: {
+      dev: "bun src/main.ts",
+      "dev:watch": "bun --watch src/main.ts",
+      "generate:check": "bun scripts/command-check.ts",
+      "doctor:completions": "bun scripts/command-check.ts",
+      "review:smoke": "bun scripts/review-smoke.ts",
+      build: "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --outdir dist --sourcemap",
+      "build:bin": "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --entry src/bin.ts --outdir dist/bin --targets native",
+      typecheck: "ttsc -p tsconfig.json --noEmit",
+      test: "bun scripts/cli-bundle.ts --outdir .test-bundle && IDLEKIT_CLI_ENTRY=.test-bundle/main.js bun test --timeout 90000 src",
+      prepack: "bun run build && cd ../.. && bun tools/package-manifest.ts prepare packages/cli",
+      postpack: "cd ../.. && bun tools/package-manifest.ts restore packages/cli"
+    },
+    dependencies: {
+      "@clack/prompts": "1.8.1",
+      "@gunshi/plugin-completion": "0.37.3",
+      "@gunshi/plugin-suggestion": "0.37.3",
+      "@idlekit/core": "0.5.0",
+      ajv: "^8.20.0",
+      gunshi: "0.37.3",
+      "proper-lockfile": "4.1.2",
+      yaml: "^2.9.1",
+      zod: "^4.6.5"
+    },
+    devDependencies: {
+      "@types/proper-lockfile": "4.1.4"
+    }
+  };
+});
+
+// src/runtime/selfCli.ts
+import { existsSync } from "fs";
+import { dirname as dirname3, resolve as resolve2 } from "path";
+function currentEntry() {
+  return Bun.main;
+}
+function isJavaScriptEntry(entry) {
+  return entry.endsWith(".js") || entry.endsWith(".mjs");
+}
+function isNativeEntry(entry) {
+  return entry.includes("$bunfs") || entry.includes("~BUN");
+}
+function isBundledCliProcess(entry = currentEntry()) {
+  return isJavaScriptEntry(entry) || isNativeEntry(entry);
+}
+function cliPackageRoot(entry = currentEntry()) {
+  if (isNativeEntry(entry))
+    return process.cwd();
+  if (isBundledCliProcess(entry))
+    return resolve2(dirname3(entry), "..");
+  return resolve2(import.meta.dir, "../..");
+}
+function bundledCliConfig(entry) {
+  const config = resolve2(dirname3(entry), "../../../tools/bundled-cli-bunfig.toml");
+  if (!existsSync(config))
+    return;
+  return config;
+}
+function selfCliCommand(args, entry = currentEntry()) {
+  if (isNativeEntry(entry))
+    return [process.execPath, ...args];
+  const bun = process.argv[0] ?? "bun";
+  if (isJavaScriptEntry(entry)) {
+    const config = bundledCliConfig(entry);
+    if (config)
+      return [bun, `--config=${config}`, entry, ...args];
+    return [bun, entry, ...args];
+  }
+  const bunfigApplies = resolve2(process.cwd()) === CLI_ROOT;
+  if (entry.endsWith(".ts") && !bunfigApplies) {
+    return [bun, "--preload", "@ttsc/unplugin/bun-register", entry, ...args];
+  }
+  return [bun, entry, ...args];
+}
+function runSelfCli(args) {
+  const proc = Bun.spawnSync(selfCliCommand(args), {
+    cwd: process.cwd(),
+    stdout: "pipe",
+    stderr: "pipe",
+    env: process.env,
+    maxBuffer: MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2
+  });
+  return {
+    exitCode: proc.exitCode,
+    stdout: proc.stdout.toString(),
+    stderr: proc.stderr.toString()
+  };
+}
+var CLI_ROOT, MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2;
+var init_selfCli = __esm(() => {
+  CLI_ROOT = resolve2(import.meta.dir, "../..");
+  MAX_CAPTURE_BYTES2 = 8 * 1024 * 1024;
+});
+
+// src/io/outputMeta.ts
+import { dirname as dirname4, resolve as resolve3 } from "path";
+function repoRoot() {
+  if (isBundledCliProcess())
+    return resolve3(dirname4(Bun.main), "../..");
+  return resolve3(import.meta.dir, "../../..");
+}
+function stableStringify(value) {
+  if (value === null || typeof value !== "object") {
+    return JSON.stringify(value);
+  }
+  if (Array.isArray(value)) {
+    return `[${value.map((x) => stableStringify(x)).join(",")}]`;
+  }
+  const entries = Object.entries(value).sort(([a], [b]) => a < b ? -1 : a > b ? 1 : 0);
+  return `{${entries.map(([k, v]) => `${JSON.stringify(k)}:${stableStringify(v)}`).join(",")}}`;
+}
+function sha256(value) {
+  return sha256Hex(value);
+}
+function resolveGitSha() {
+  if (hasResolvedGitSha)
+    return cachedGitSha ?? UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
+  hasResolvedGitSha = true;
+  const envSha = process.env.GITHUB_SHA?.trim();
+  if (envSha) {
+    cachedGitSha = envSha;
+    return cachedGitSha;
+  }
+  try {
+    cachedGitSha = runText(["git", "rev-parse", "--short", "HEAD"], {
+      cwd: REPO_ROOT,
+      env: process.env
+    }).trim();
+  } catch {
+    cachedGitSha = UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
+  }
+  return cachedGitSha ?? UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA;
+}
+function hashContent(value) {
+  return sha256(stableStringify(value));
+}
+function deriveDeterministicSeed(value) {
+  const digest = hashContent(value);
+  return Number.parseInt(digest.slice(0, 8), 16) >>> 0;
+}
+function deriveDeterministicRunId(args) {
+  const suffix = hashContent({
+    command: args.command,
+    seed: args.seed,
+    scope: args.scope ?? null
+  }).slice(0, 8);
+  return `${args.command}-${args.seed.toString(36)}-${suffix}`;
+}
+function outputSchemaRefForCommand(command) {
+  return OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF[command];
+}
+function buildOutputMeta(args) {
+  const scenarioHash = (() => {
+    if (args.scenario !== undefined)
+      return hashContent(args.scenario);
+    if (args.scenarios) {
+      const out = {};
+      for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(args.scenarios)) {
+        out[k] = hashContent(v);
+      }
+      return out;
+    }
+    return;
+  })();
+  return {
+    command: args.command,
+    generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
+    contractVersion: OUTPUT_CONTRACT_VERSION,
+    schemaRef: args.schemaRef ?? outputSchemaRefForCommand(args.command),
+    cliVersion,
+    gitSha: resolveGitSha(),
+    runId: args.runId,
+    seed: args.seed,
+    scenarioPath: args.scenarioPath,
+    scenarioHash,
+    tuneSpecHash: args.tuneSpec !== undefined ? hashContent(args.tuneSpec) : undefined,
+    telemetryHash: args.telemetry !== undefined ? hashContent(args.telemetry) : undefined,
+    pluginDigest: args.pluginDigest ?? {},
+    ...args.effectiveRunHash !== undefined ? { effectiveRunHash: args.effectiveRunHash } : {},
+    ...args.effectiveEngine !== undefined ? { effectiveEngine: args.effectiveEngine } : {},
+    ...args.stageScope !== undefined ? { stageScope: args.stageScope } : {}
+  };
+}
+var import_package, REPO_ROOT, OUTPUT_CONTRACT_VERSION = "1.4.0", UNKNOWN_GIT_SHA = "unknown", OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF, cachedGitSha, hasResolvedGitSha = false, cliVersion;
+var init_outputMeta = __esm(() => {
+  init_bun();
+  init_selfCli();
+  import_package = __toESM(require_package(), 1);
+  REPO_ROOT = repoRoot();
+  OUTPUT_SCHEMA_REF = {
+    simulate: "docs/schemas/simulate.output.schema.json",
+    eta: "docs/schemas/eta.output.schema.json",
+    compare: "docs/schemas/compare.output.schema.json",
+    doctor: "docs/schemas/doctor.output.schema.json",
+    evaluate: "docs/schemas/evaluate.output.schema.json",
+    "judge.jev": "docs/schemas/jev.judge.output.schema.json",
+    "execution.batch": "docs/worker-execution.md",
+    experience: "docs/schemas/experience.output.schema.json",
+    "setup.completions": "docs/schemas/setup.output.schema.json",
+    "setup.plugin-trust": "docs/schemas/setup.output.schema.json",
+    tune: "docs/schemas/tune.output.schema.json",
+    ltv: "docs/schemas/ltv.output.schema.json",
+    calibrate: "docs/schemas/calibrate.output.schema.json",
+    "kpi.regress": "docs/schemas/kpi.regress.output.schema.json",
+    "replay.verify": "docs/schemas/replay.verify.output.schema.json"
+  };
+  cliVersion = import_package.default.version ?? "0.0.0";
+});
+
+// ../../node_modules/.bun/yaml@2.9.1/node_modules/yaml/dist/nodes/identity.js
+var require_identity = __commonJS(function(exports) {
+  var ALIAS = Symbol.for("yaml.alias");
+  var DOC = Symbol.for("yaml.document");
+  var MAP = Symbol.for("yaml.map");
+  var PAIR = Symbol.for("yaml.pair");
+  var SCALAR = Symbol.for("yaml.scalar");
+  var SEQ = Symbol.for("yaml.seq");
+  var NODE_TYPE = Symbol.for("yaml.node.type");
+  var isAlias = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === ALIAS;
+  var isDocument = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === DOC;
+  var isMap = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === MAP;
+  var isPair = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === PAIR;
+  var isScalar = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === SCALAR;
+  var isSeq = (node) => !!node && typeof node === "object" && node[NODE_TYPE] === SEQ;
+  function isCollection(node) {
+    if (node && typeof node === "object")
+      switch (node[NODE_TYPE]) {
+        case MAP:
+        case SEQ:
+          return true;
+      }
+    return false;
+  }
+  function isNode(node) {
+    if (node && typeof node === "object")
+      switch (node[NODE_TYPE]) {
+        case ALIAS:
+        case MAP:
+        case SCALAR:
+        case SEQ:
+          return true;
+      }
+    return false;
+  }
+  var hasAnchor = (node) => (isScalar(node) || isCollection(node)) && !!node.anchor;
+  exports.ALIAS = ALIAS;
+  exports.DOC = DOC;
+  exports.MAP = MAP;
+  exports.NODE_TYPE = NODE_TYPE;
+  exports.PAIR = PAIR;
+  exports.SCALAR = SCALAR;
+  exports.SEQ = SEQ;
+  exports.hasAnchor = hasAnchor;
+  exports.isAlias = isAlias;
+  exports.isCollection = isCollection;
+  exports.isDocument = isDocument;
+  exports.isMap = isMap;
+  exports.isNode = isNode;
+  exports.isPair = isPair;
+  exports.isScalar = isScalar;
+  exports.isSeq = isSeq;
+});
+
+// ../../node_modules/.bun/yaml@2.9.1/node_modules/yaml/dist/visit.js
+var require_visit = __commonJS(function(exports) {
+  var identity = require_identity();
+  var BREAK = Symbol("break visit");
+  var SKIP = Symbol("skip children");
+  var REMOVE = Symbol("remove node");
+  function visit(node, visitor) {
+    const visitor_ = initVisitor(visitor);
+    if (identity.isDocument(node)) {
+      const cd = visit_(null, node.contents, visitor_, Object.freeze([node]));
+      if (cd === REMOVE)
+        node.contents = null;
+    } else
       visit_(null, node, visitor_, Object.freeze([]));
   }
   visit.BREAK = BREAK;
@@ -36322,532 +36680,165 @@ function judgeCsvRows(report) {
       unit: result.evidence.unit,
       operator: result.evidence.operator,
       threshold: result.evidence.threshold,
-      upperThreshold: result.evidence.upperThreshold,
-      diagnosticStatus: diagnostic?.status ?? null,
-      recommendationId: diagnostic?.recommendationId ?? null
-    };
-  });
-}
-async function runJudge(flags, analysisPath, hooks) {
-  const requestedModel = (flags.model ?? "jev-latest").trim();
-  if (flags.provider === "jev" && requestedModel.length === 0) {
-    throw usageError("--model requires a nonempty model name.");
-  }
-  if (flags.provider === "jev" && flags.format === "csv") {
-    throw usageError("--provider jev writes json or md. csv cannot hold the rules report and the advisory together.");
-  }
-  if (flags.provider === "jev" && flags.cache) {
-    if (flags.out && sameFile(flags.cache, flags.out)) {
-      throw usageError("--cache and --out name the same file. Give the Jev cache its own path.");
-    }
-    if (flags.out && (ancestorFile(flags.cache, flags.out) || ancestorFile(flags.out, flags.cache))) {
-      throw usageError("--cache and --out cannot be ancestor paths. Give each file a separate target.");
-    }
-    if (sameFile(flags.cache, analysisPath) || sameFile(flags.cache, flags.rubric)) {
-      throw usageError("--cache names an input file. Give the Jev cache its own path.");
-    }
-  }
-  if (flags.provider === "jev") {
-    if (flags.cache)
-      requireFileTarget(flags.cache, "cache");
-    if (flags.out)
-      requireFileTarget(flags.out, "out");
-  }
-  let artifactRaw;
-  let rubricRaw;
-  try {
-    artifactRaw = await readJsonFile(analysisPath);
-    rubricRaw = await readJsonFile(flags.rubric);
-  } catch (error) {
-    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`);
-  }
-  const parsed = readJudgeInputs(artifactRaw, rubricRaw);
-  if (!parsed.ok) {
-    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${parsed.issues.join("; ")}`);
-  }
-  let report;
-  try {
-    report = evaluateRules(parsed);
-  } catch (error) {
-    const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);
-    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${message}`);
-  }
-  if (flags.provider === "rules") {
-    await writeOutput({
-      format: flags.format,
-      outPath: flags.out,
-      data: flags.format === "md" ? renderJudgeMarkdown(report) : flags.format === "csv" ? judgeCsvRows(report) : report
-    });
-    return report;
-  }
-  await Promise.resolve().then(() => init_jev());
-  const key = (hooks?.env ?? process.env).TYPESAFE_API_KEY?.trim() ?? "";
-  if (!isSafeJevReport(report, key)) {
-    throw usageError("Unsafe Jev numerical report metadata. Remove secrets and local paths from the judge inputs.");
-  }
-  const advisory = await adviseWithJev({
-    artifact: parsed.artifact,
-    rubric: parsed.rubric,
-    numerical: report,
-    requestedModel,
-    dryRun: flags["dry-run"] === true,
-    cachePath: flags.cache,
-    transport: hooks?.transport,
-    env: hooks?.env,
-    nowMs: hooks?.nowMs,
-    sleep: hooks?.sleep
-  });
-  const bundle = { numericalReport: report, advisory };
-  if (flags.format === "md") {
-    const markdown = [
-      renderJudgeMarkdown(report),
-      `- Jev: ${advisory.status} ${advisory.reason}`,
-      `- Endpoint: ${advisory.endpoint}`,
-      `- Planned requests: ${advisory.plannedRequests}`,
-      "",
-      "## Jev answers",
-      "",
-      ...advisory.answers.map((answer) => {
-        const value = answer.noul ?? answer.choice ?? answer.score ?? "none";
-        const confidence = answer.confidence === null ? "" : `; confidence=${answer.confidence}`;
-        return `- ${answer.id}: ${answer.type}=${value}${confidence}; ${answer.disposition}`;
-      }),
-      ...advisory.answers.length === 0 ? ["None."] : []
-    ].join(`
-`);
-    if (flags.out) {
-      const outPath = resolve7(flags.out);
-      await writeTextFile(outPath, `${markdown}
-`);
-      console.log(`Wrote md output to ${outPath}`);
-    } else {
-      await writeStdout(`${markdown}
-`);
-    }
-    return bundle;
-  }
-  await writeOutput({
-    format: flags.format,
-    outPath: flags.out,
-    data: bundle,
-    meta: buildOutputMeta({
-      command: "judge",
-      pluginDigest: {},
-      schemaRef: outputSchemaRefForCommand("judge.jev")
-    })
-  });
-  return bundle;
-}
-var judge_default = defineCommand({
-  name: "judge",
-  description: "Advise on an analysis artifact with a versioned rules rubric",
-  options: {
-    rubric: option(string2(), { description: "Versioned rubric JSON path" }),
-    provider: option(_enum(["rules", "jev"]).default("rules"), {
-      description: "Advisory provider. rules is local. jev is an opt-in network provider."
-    }),
-    "dry-run": option(exports_coerce.boolean().default(false), {
-      description: "Show the Jev request plan without calling the network"
-    }),
-    model: option(string2().trim().min(1).default("jev-latest"), {
-      description: "Requested Jev model. jev-latest is an alias, not a pinned id."
-    }),
-    cache: option(string2().optional(), { description: "Optional Jev advisory cache path" }),
-    out: option(string2().optional(), { description: "Output path" }),
-    format: option(_enum(["json", "md", "csv"]).default("json"), { description: "Output format" })
-  },
-  async handler({ flags, positional }) {
-    const analysisPath = positional[0];
-    if (!analysisPath) {
-      throw usageError("Usage: idk judge <analysis.json> --rubric <rubric.json> --provider rules");
-    }
-    await runJudge(flags, analysisPath);
-  }
-});
-
-// src/commands/calibrate.ts
-init_zod();
-init_errors3();
-init_outputMeta();
-import { extname as extname3, resolve as resolve8 } from "path";
-
-// src/lib/ltvCalibration.ts
-function assertFiniteNumbers(value, path) {
-  if (typeof value === "number" && !Number.isFinite(value)) {
-    throw new RangeError(`Calibration requires finite numbers; numeric overflow at ${path}`);
-  }
-  if (typeof value === "object" && value !== null) {
-    for (const [key, child] of Object.entries(value))
-      assertFiniteNumbers(child, `${path}.${key}`);
-  }
-}
-function clamp012(v) {
-  if (v < 0)
-    return 0;
-  if (v > 1)
-    return 1;
-  return v;
-}
-function clampCorrelation(v) {
-  if (!Number.isFinite(v))
-    return 0;
-  if (v < -1)
-    return -1;
-  if (v > 1)
-    return 1;
-  return v;
-}
-function mean(values) {
-  if (values.length === 0)
-    return 0;
-  return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length;
-}
-function variance(values) {
-  if (values.length === 0)
-    return 0;
-  const m = mean(values);
-  let acc = 0;
-  for (const v of values) {
-    const d = v - m;
-    acc += d * d;
-  }
-  return acc / values.length;
-}
-function estimateCorrelation(x, y) {
-  const n = Math.min(x.length, y.length);
-  if (n < 3) {
-    return {
-      raw: 0,
-      value: 0,
-      confidence: 0,
-      shrinkage: 0,
-      sampleSize: n,
-      varianceX: 0,
-      varianceY: 0
-    };
-  }
-  const sx = x.slice(0, n);
-  const sy = y.slice(0, n);
-  const mx = mean(sx);
-  const my = mean(sy);
-  let cov = 0;
-  let vx = 0;
-  let vy = 0;
-  for (let i = 0;i < n; i++) {
-    const dx = (sx[i] ?? 0) - mx;
-    const dy = (sy[i] ?? 0) - my;
-    cov += dx * dy;
-    vx += dx * dx;
-    vy += dy * dy;
-  }
-  const varianceX = vx / n;
-  const varianceY = vy / n;
-  if (vx <= 0.000000000001 || vy <= 0.000000000001) {
-    return {
-      raw: 0,
-      value: 0,
-      confidence: 0,
-      shrinkage: 0,
-      sampleSize: n,
-      varianceX,
-      varianceY
+      upperThreshold: result.evidence.upperThreshold,
+      diagnosticStatus: diagnostic?.status ?? null,
+      recommendationId: diagnostic?.recommendationId ?? null
     };
-  }
-  const raw = clampCorrelation(cov / Math.sqrt(vx) / Math.sqrt(vy));
-  const ci95 = 1.96 / Math.sqrt(Math.max(1, n - 3));
-  const sampleConfidence = clamp012(1 - ci95);
-  const varianceConfidenceX = varianceX / (varianceX + 0.01);
-  const varianceConfidenceY = varianceY / (varianceY + 0.01);
-  const varianceConfidence = Math.sqrt(varianceConfidenceX * varianceConfidenceY);
-  const confidence = clamp012(sampleConfidence * varianceConfidence);
-  const shrinkage = confidence;
-  const value = raw * shrinkage;
-  return {
-    raw,
-    value,
-    confidence,
-    shrinkage,
-    sampleSize: n,
-    varianceX,
-    varianceY
-  };
+  });
 }
-function calibrateMonetization(rows) {
-  if (rows.length === 0) {
-    throw new Error("calibration rows cannot be empty");
+async function runJudge(flags, analysisPath, hooks) {
+  const requestedModel = (flags.model ?? "jev-latest").trim();
+  if (flags.provider === "jev" && requestedModel.length === 0) {
+    throw usageError("--model requires a nonempty model name.");
   }
-  const users = new Map;
-  for (const row of rows) {
-    const day = Math.max(0, Math.floor(row.day));
-    const u = users.get(row.userId) ?? { days: new Set, iap: 0, ad: 0, acq: undefined };
-    if (row.active ?? true)
-      u.days.add(day);
-    u.iap += Math.max(0, row.iapRevenue);
-    u.ad += Math.max(0, row.adRevenue);
-    if (row.acquisitionCost !== undefined && Number.isFinite(row.acquisitionCost)) {
-      u.acq = (u.acq ?? 0) + Math.max(0, row.acquisitionCost);
-    }
-    users.set(row.userId, u);
+  if (flags.provider === "jev" && flags.format === "csv") {
+    throw usageError("--provider jev writes json or md. csv cannot hold the rules report and the advisory together.");
   }
-  const cohortSize = Math.max(1, users.size);
-  const dayActiveCount = (targetDay) => {
-    let count = 0;
-    for (const user of users.values())
-      if (user.days.has(targetDay))
-        count += 1;
-    return count;
-  };
-  const d1 = dayActiveCount(1) / cohortSize;
-  const d7 = dayActiveCount(7) / cohortSize;
-  const d30 = dayActiveCount(30) / cohortSize;
-  const d90 = dayActiveCount(90) / cohortSize;
-  let totalIap = 0;
-  let totalAd = 0;
-  let payerUsers = 0;
-  let activeUserDays = 0;
-  let payerDays = 0;
-  let totalAcq = 0;
-  let acqUsers = 0;
-  for (const user of users.values()) {
-    totalIap += user.iap;
-    totalAd += user.ad;
-    if (user.iap > 0)
-      payerUsers += 1;
-    activeUserDays += user.days.size;
-    for (const day of user.days) {
-      if (day >= 0 && user.iap > 0)
-        payerDays += 1;
+  if (flags.provider === "jev" && flags.cache) {
+    if (flags.out && sameFile(flags.cache, flags.out)) {
+      throw usageError("--cache and --out name the same file. Give the Jev cache its own path.");
     }
-    if (user.acq !== undefined) {
-      totalAcq += user.acq;
-      acqUsers += 1;
+    if (flags.out && (ancestorFile(flags.cache, flags.out) || ancestorFile(flags.out, flags.cache))) {
+      throw usageError("--cache and --out cannot be ancestor paths. Give each file a separate target.");
+    }
+    if (sameFile(flags.cache, analysisPath) || sameFile(flags.cache, flags.rubric)) {
+      throw usageError("--cache names an input file. Give the Jev cache its own path.");
     }
   }
-  const payerConversion = payerUsers / cohortSize;
-  const arppuDaily = totalIap / Math.max(1, payerDays);
-  const adArpDau = totalAd / Math.max(1, activeUserDays);
-  const cpi = totalAcq / Math.max(1, acqUsers);
-  const userRetention = [];
-  const userConversion = [];
-  const userArppu = [];
-  const userAdArpDau = [];
-  for (const user of users.values()) {
-    const activeDays = Math.max(1, user.days.size);
-    const retentionScore = clamp012(activeDays / 30);
-    const conversionScore = user.iap > 0 ? 1 : 0;
-    const arppuScore = user.iap > 0 ? user.iap / activeDays : 0;
-    const adScore = user.ad / activeDays;
-    userRetention.push(retentionScore);
-    userConversion.push(conversionScore);
-    userArppu.push(arppuScore);
-    userAdArpDau.push(adScore);
+  if (flags.provider === "jev") {
+    if (flags.cache)
+      requireFileTarget(flags.cache, "cache");
+    if (flags.out)
+      requireFileTarget(flags.out, "out");
   }
-  const estimatedCorrelationPair = {
-    retentionConversion: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userConversion),
-    retentionArppu: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userArppu),
-    retentionAd: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userAdArpDau),
-    conversionArppu: estimateCorrelation(userConversion, userArppu),
-    conversionAd: estimateCorrelation(userConversion, userAdArpDau),
-    arppuAd: estimateCorrelation(userArppu, userAdArpDau)
-  };
-  const estimatedCorrelation = {
-    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.value,
-    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.value,
-    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.value,
-    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.value,
-    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.value,
-    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.value
-  };
-  const estimatedCorrelationRaw = {
-    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.raw,
-    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.raw,
-    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.raw,
-    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.raw,
-    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.raw,
-    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.raw
-  };
-  const correlationConfidence = {
-    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.confidence,
-    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.confidence,
-    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.confidence,
-    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.confidence,
-    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.confidence,
-    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.confidence
-  };
-  const result = {
-    monetization: {
-      cohorts: {
-        baseUsers: cohortSize
-      },
-      retention: {
-        d1: clamp012(d1),
-        d7: clamp012(Math.min(d1, d7)),
-        d30: clamp012(Math.min(d1, d7, d30)),
-        d90: clamp012(Math.min(d1, d7, d30, d90)),
-        longTailDailyDecay: 0.02
-      },
-      revenue: {
-        payerConversion: clamp012(payerConversion),
-        arppuDaily: Math.max(0, arppuDaily),
-        adArpDau: Math.max(0, adArpDau),
-        platformFeeRate: 0.3,
-        grossMarginRate: 0.92
-      },
-      acquisition: {
-        cpi: Math.max(0, cpi)
-      },
-      uncertainty: {
-        enabled: true,
-        draws: 300,
-        quantiles: [0.5, 0.9],
-        sigma: {
-          retention: 0.08,
-          conversion: 0.12,
-          arppu: 0.2,
-          ad: 0.15
-        },
-        correlation: {
-          retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelation.retentionConversion,
-          retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelation.retentionArppu,
-          retentionAd: estimatedCorrelation.retentionAd,
-          conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelation.conversionArppu,
-          conversionAd: estimatedCorrelation.conversionAd,
-          arppuAd: estimatedCorrelation.arppuAd
-        }
-      }
-    },
-    diagnostics: {
-      users: cohortSize,
-      totalRows: rows.length,
-      totalIap,
-      totalAd,
-      activeUserDays,
-      payerUsers,
-      payerDays,
-      retention: {
-        d1,
-        d7,
-        d30,
-        d90
-      },
-      userFeatureVariance: {
-        retention: variance(userRetention),
-        conversion: variance(userConversion),
-        arppu: variance(userArppu),
-        adArpDau: variance(userAdArpDau)
-      },
-      estimatedCorrelation,
-      estimatedCorrelationRaw,
-      correlationConfidence,
-      correlationDiagnostics: estimatedCorrelationPair
+  let artifactRaw;
+  let rubricRaw;
+  try {
+    artifactRaw = await readJsonFile(analysisPath);
+    rubricRaw = await readJsonFile(flags.rubric);
+  } catch (error) {
+    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`);
+  }
+  const parsed = readJudgeInputs(artifactRaw, rubricRaw);
+  if (!parsed.ok) {
+    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${parsed.issues.join("; ")}`);
+  }
+  let report;
+  try {
+    report = evaluateRules(parsed);
+  } catch (error) {
+    const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);
+    throw usageError(`Invalid judge input: ${message}`);
+  }
+  if (flags.provider === "rules") {
+    await writeOutput({
+      format: flags.format,
+      outPath: flags.out,
+      data: flags.format === "md" ? renderJudgeMarkdown(report) : flags.format === "csv" ? judgeCsvRows(report) : report
+    });
+    return report;
+  }
+  await Promise.resolve().then(() => init_jev());
+  const key = (hooks?.env ?? process.env).TYPESAFE_API_KEY?.trim() ?? "";
+  if (!isSafeJevReport(report, key)) {
+    throw usageError("Unsafe Jev numerical report metadata. Remove secrets and local paths from the judge inputs.");
+  }
+  const advisory = await adviseWithJev({
+    artifact: parsed.artifact,
+    rubric: parsed.rubric,
+    numerical: report,
+    requestedModel,
+    dryRun: flags["dry-run"] === true,
+    cachePath: flags.cache,
+    transport: hooks?.transport,
+    env: hooks?.env,
+    nowMs: hooks?.nowMs,
+    sleep: hooks?.sleep
+  });
+  const bundle = { numericalReport: report, advisory };
+  if (flags.format === "md") {
+    const markdown = [
+      renderJudgeMarkdown(report),
+      `- Jev: ${advisory.status} ${advisory.reason}`,
+      `- Endpoint: ${advisory.endpoint}`,
+      `- Planned requests: ${advisory.plannedRequests}`,
+      "",
+      "## Jev answers",
+      "",
+      ...advisory.answers.map((answer) => {
+        const value = answer.noul ?? answer.choice ?? answer.score ?? "none";
+        const confidence = answer.confidence === null ? "" : `; confidence=${answer.confidence}`;
+        return `- ${answer.id}: ${answer.type}=${value}${confidence}; ${answer.disposition}`;
+      }),
+      ...advisory.answers.length === 0 ? ["None."] : []
+    ].join(`
+`);
+    if (flags.out) {
+      const outPath = resolve7(flags.out);
+      await writeTextFile(outPath, `${markdown}
+`);
+      console.log(`Wrote md output to ${outPath}`);
+    } else {
+      await writeStdout(`${markdown}
+`);
     }
-  };
-  assertFiniteNumbers(result, "calibration");
-  return result;
-}
-// src/lib/ltvProjection.ts
-function clamp013(v) {
-  if (v < 0)
-    return 0;
-  if (v > 1)
-    return 1;
-  return v;
+    return bundle;
+  }
+  await writeOutput({
+    format: flags.format,
+    outPath: flags.out,
+    data: bundle,
+    meta: buildOutputMeta({
+      command: "judge",
+      pluginDigest: {},
+      schemaRef: outputSchemaRefForCommand("judge.jev")
+    })
+  });
+  return bundle;
 }
-function deriveMonetizationConfig(scenario) {
-  const m = scenario.monetization;
-  const q = (m?.uncertainty?.quantiles ?? [0.5, 0.9]).filter((x) => typeof x === "number");
-  const quantiles = q.length > 0 ? [...new Set(q)].sort((a, b) => a - b) : [0.5, 0.9];
-  return {
-    cohorts: {
-      baseUsers: m?.cohorts?.baseUsers ?? 1
-    },
-    retention: {
-      d1: m?.retention?.d1 ?? 0.42,
-      d7: m?.retention?.d7 ?? 0.2,
-      d30: m?.retention?.d30 ?? 0.09,
-      d90: m?.retention?.d90 ?? 0.04,
-      longTailDailyDecay: m?.retention?.longTailDailyDecay ?? 0.02
-    },
-    revenue: {
-      payerConversion: m?.revenue?.payerConversion ?? 0.03,
-      arppuDaily: m?.revenue?.arppuDaily ?? 0.7,
-      adArpDau: m?.revenue?.adArpDau ?? 0.02,
-      platformFeeRate: m?.revenue?.platformFeeRate ?? 0.3,
-      grossMarginRate: m?.revenue?.grossMarginRate ?? 0.92,
-      progressionRevenueLift: m?.revenue?.progressionRevenueLift ?? 0.4,
-      progressionLogSpan: m?.revenue?.progressionLogSpan ?? 6
-    },
-    acquisition: {
-      cpi: m?.acquisition?.cpi ?? 0
-    },
-    uncertainty: {
-      enabled: m?.uncertainty?.enabled ?? false,
-      draws: m?.uncertainty?.draws ?? 300,
-      quantiles,
-      seed: m?.uncertainty?.seed,
-      sigma: {
-        retention: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.retention ?? 0.08,
-        conversion: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.conversion ?? 0.12,
-        arppu: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.arppu ?? 0.2,
-        ad: m?.uncertainty?.sigma?.ad ?? 0.15
-      },
-      correlation: {
-        retentionConversion: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionConversion ?? 0,
-        retentionArppu: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionArppu ?? 0,
-        retentionAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.retentionAd ?? 0,
-        conversionArppu: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.conversionArppu ?? 0,
-        conversionAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.conversionAd ?? 0,
-        arppuAd: m?.uncertainty?.correlation?.arppuAd ?? 0
-      }
+var judge_default = defineCommand({
+  name: "judge",
+  description: "Advise on an analysis artifact with a versioned rules rubric",
+  options: {
+    rubric: option(string2(), { description: "Versioned rubric JSON path" }),
+    provider: option(_enum(["rules", "jev"]).default("rules"), {
+      description: "Advisory provider. rules is local. jev is an opt-in network provider."
+    }),
+    "dry-run": option(exports_coerce.boolean().default(false), {
+      description: "Show the Jev request plan without calling the network"
+    }),
+    model: option(string2().trim().min(1).default("jev-latest"), {
+      description: "Requested Jev model. jev-latest is an alias, not a pinned id."
+    }),
+    cache: option(string2().optional(), { description: "Optional Jev advisory cache path" }),
+    out: option(string2().optional(), { description: "Output path" }),
+    format: option(_enum(["json", "md", "csv"]).default("json"), { description: "Output format" })
+  },
+  async handler({ flags, positional }) {
+    const analysisPath = positional[0];
+    if (!analysisPath) {
+      throw usageError("Usage: idk judge <analysis.json> --rubric <rubric.json> --provider rules");
     }
-  };
-}
-function retentionAtDay(ret, day) {
-  if (day <= 0)
-    return 1;
-  if (day <= 1)
-    return ret.d1;
-  if (day <= 7)
-    return ret.d1 + (ret.d7 - ret.d1) * (day - 1) / 6;
-  if (day <= 30)
-    return ret.d7 + (ret.d30 - ret.d7) * (day - 7) / 23;
-  if (day <= 90)
-    return ret.d30 + (ret.d90 - ret.d30) * (day - 30) / 60;
-  const extra = day - 90;
-  return clamp013(ret.d90 * Math.exp(-ret.longTailDailyDecay * extra));
-}
-function progressionFactor(startWorthLog10, endWorthLog10, span) {
-  if (!Number.isFinite(startWorthLog10) || !Number.isFinite(endWorthLog10) || !Number.isFinite(span) || span <= 0) {
-    return 0;
+    await runJudge(flags, analysisPath);
   }
-  return clamp013((endWorthLog10 - startWorthLog10) / span);
-}
-function estimateLtvPerUser(args) {
-  const { config, horizonDays } = args;
-  const progression = clamp013(args.progression);
-  const arppuDaily = config.revenue.arppuDaily * (1 + progression * config.revenue.progressionRevenueLift);
-  const adArpDau = config.revenue.adArpDau * (1 + progression * config.revenue.progressionRevenueLift * 0.5);
-  const payerConversion = config.revenue.payerConversion;
-  const fullDays = Math.floor(Math.max(0, horizonDays));
-  const remainder = Math.max(0, horizonDays - fullDays);
-  let gross = 0;
-  for (let day = 1;day <= fullDays; day++) {
-    const active = retentionAtDay(config.retention, day);
-    gross += active * (payerConversion * arppuDaily + adArpDau);
+});
+
+// src/commands/calibrate.ts
+init_zod();
+init_errors3();
+init_outputMeta();
+import { extname as extname3, resolve as resolve8 } from "path";
+
+// src/lib/ltvCalibration.ts
+function assertFiniteNumbers(value, path) {
+  if (typeof value === "number" && !Number.isFinite(value)) {
+    throw new RangeError(`Calibration requires finite numbers; numeric overflow at ${path}`);
   }
-  if (remainder > 0) {
-    const active = retentionAtDay(config.retention, fullDays + 1);
-    gross += remainder * active * (payerConversion * arppuDaily + adArpDau);
+  if (typeof value === "object" && value !== null) {
+    for (const [key, child] of Object.entries(value))
+      assertFiniteNumbers(child, `${path}.${key}`);
   }
-  const net = gross * (1 - config.revenue.platformFeeRate) * config.revenue.grossMarginRate;
-  const ltv = net - config.acquisition.cpi;
-  return {
-    cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser: gross,
-    cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser: net,
-    cumulativeLtvPerUser: ltv
-  };
 }
-// src/lib/ltvUncertainty.ts
 function clamp014(v) {
   if (v < 0)
     return 0;
@@ -36864,168 +36855,258 @@ function clampCorrelation2(v) {
     return 1;
   return v;
 }
-function mulberry323(seed) {
-  let a = seed >>> 0;
-  return () => {
-    a |= 0;
-    a = a + 1831565813 | 0;
-    let t = Math.imul(a ^ a >>> 15, 1 | a);
-    t = t + Math.imul(t ^ t >>> 7, 61 | t) ^ t;
-    return ((t ^ t >>> 14) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
-  };
-}
-function randNormal(rng) {
-  const u1 = Math.max(0.000000000001, rng());
-  const u2 = Math.max(0.000000000001, rng());
-  return Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(u1)) * Math.cos(2 * Math.PI * u2);
-}
-function buildCorrelationMatrix(base) {
-  const rc = clampCorrelation2(base.retentionConversion);
-  const ra = clampCorrelation2(base.retentionArppu);
-  const rd = clampCorrelation2(base.retentionAd);
-  const ca = clampCorrelation2(base.conversionArppu);
-  const cd = clampCorrelation2(base.conversionAd);
-  const ad = clampCorrelation2(base.arppuAd);
-  return [
-    [1, rc, ra, rd],
-    [rc, 1, ca, cd],
-    [ra, ca, 1, ad],
-    [rd, cd, ad, 1]
-  ];
-}
-function withOffDiagonalScale(matrix, alpha) {
-  return matrix.map((row, i) => row.map((v, j) => {
-    if (i === j)
-      return 1;
-    return v * alpha;
-  }));
+function mean(values) {
+  if (values.length === 0)
+    return 0;
+  return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length;
 }
-function cholesky4(matrix) {
-  const n = 4;
-  const l = Array.from({ length: n }, () => Array.from({ length: n }, () => 0));
-  for (let i = 0;i < n; i++) {
-    for (let j = 0;j <= i; j++) {
-      let sum = 0;
-      for (let k = 0;k < j; k++) {
-        sum += (l[i]?.[k] ?? 0) * (l[j]?.[k] ?? 0);
-      }
-      if (i === j) {
-        const val = (matrix[i]?.[i] ?? 0) - sum;
-        if (val <= 0.000000001)
-          return null;
-        l[i][j] = Math.sqrt(val);
-      } else {
-        const denom = l[j]?.[j] ?? 0;
-        if (Math.abs(denom) < 0.000000001)
-          return null;
-        l[i][j] = ((matrix[i]?.[j] ?? 0) - sum) / denom;
-      }
-    }
+function variance(values) {
+  if (values.length === 0)
+    return 0;
+  const m = mean(values);
+  let acc = 0;
+  for (const v of values) {
+    const d = v - m;
+    acc += d * d;
   }
-  return l;
+  return acc / values.length;
 }
-function multiplyLowerTriangular(l, z) {
-  const out = [0, 0, 0, 0];
-  for (let i = 0;i < 4; i++) {
-    let sum = 0;
-    for (let j = 0;j <= i; j++) {
-      sum += (l[i]?.[j] ?? 0) * (z[j] ?? 0);
-    }
-    out[i] = sum;
+function estimateCorrelation(x, y) {
+  const n = Math.min(x.length, y.length);
+  if (n < 3) {
+    return {
+      raw: 0,
+      value: 0,
+      confidence: 0,
+      shrinkage: 0,
+      sampleSize: n,
+      varianceX: 0,
+      varianceY: 0
+    };
   }
-  return out;
-}
-function sampleCorrelatedNormals(rng, corr) {
-  const z = [randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng), randNormal(rng)];
-  const matrix = buildCorrelationMatrix(corr);
-  let l = cholesky4(matrix);
-  let alpha = 0.99;
-  while (!l && alpha > 0.000001) {
-    l = cholesky4(withOffDiagonalScale(matrix, alpha));
-    alpha *= 0.8;
+  const sx = x.slice(0, n);
+  const sy = y.slice(0, n);
+  const mx = mean(sx);
+  const my = mean(sy);
+  let cov = 0;
+  let vx = 0;
+  let vy = 0;
+  for (let i = 0;i < n; i++) {
+    const dx = (sx[i] ?? 0) - mx;
+    const dy = (sy[i] ?? 0) - my;
+    cov += dx * dy;
+    vx += dx * dx;
+    vy += dy * dy;
   }
-  if (!l) {
+  const varianceX = vx / n;
+  const varianceY = vy / n;
+  if (vx <= 0.000000000001 || vy <= 0.000000000001) {
     return {
-      retention: z[0] ?? 0,
-      conversion: z[1] ?? 0,
-      arppu: z[2] ?? 0,
-      ad: z[3] ?? 0
+      raw: 0,
+      value: 0,
+      confidence: 0,
+      shrinkage: 0,
+      sampleSize: n,
+      varianceX,
+      varianceY
     };
   }
-  const c = multiplyLowerTriangular(l, z);
+  const raw = clampCorrelation2(cov / Math.sqrt(vx) / Math.sqrt(vy));
+  const ci95 = 1.96 / Math.sqrt(Math.max(1, n - 3));
+  const sampleConfidence = clamp014(1 - ci95);
+  const varianceConfidenceX = varianceX / (varianceX + 0.01);
+  const varianceConfidenceY = varianceY / (varianceY + 0.01);
+  const varianceConfidence = Math.sqrt(varianceConfidenceX * varianceConfidenceY);
+  const confidence = clamp014(sampleConfidence * varianceConfidence);
+  const shrinkage = confidence;
+  const value = raw * shrinkage;
   return {
-    retention: c[0] ?? 0,
-    conversion: c[1] ?? 0,
-    arppu: c[2] ?? 0,
-    ad: c[3] ?? 0
+    raw,
+    value,
+    confidence,
+    shrinkage,
+    sampleSize: n,
+    varianceX,
+    varianceY
   };
 }
-function applyLogNormalShock(mean, sigma, z) {
-  if (sigma <= 0)
-    return mean;
-  return mean * Math.exp(sigma * z - 0.5 * sigma * sigma);
-}
-function makeUncertainConfig(base, rng) {
-  const shock = sampleCorrelatedNormals(rng, base.uncertainty.correlation);
-  const d1 = clamp014(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d1, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention));
-  const d7 = Math.min(d1, clamp014(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d7, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
-  const d30 = Math.min(d7, clamp014(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d30, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
-  const d90 = Math.min(d30, clamp014(applyLogNormalShock(base.retention.d90, base.uncertainty.sigma.retention, shock.retention)));
-  return {
-    ...base,
-    retention: {
-      ...base.retention,
-      d1,
-      d7,
-      d30,
-      d90
-    },
-    revenue: {
-      ...base.revenue,
-      payerConversion: clamp014(applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.payerConversion, base.uncertainty.sigma.conversion, shock.conversion)),
-      arppuDaily: Math.max(0, applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.arppuDaily, base.uncertainty.sigma.arppu, shock.arppu)),
-      adArpDau: Math.max(0, applyLogNormalShock(base.revenue.adArpDau, base.uncertainty.sigma.ad, shock.ad))
+function calibrateMonetization(rows) {
+  if (rows.length === 0) {
+    throw new Error("calibration rows cannot be empty");
+  }
+  const users = new Map;
+  for (const row of rows) {
+    const day = Math.max(0, Math.floor(row.day));
+    const u = users.get(row.userId) ?? { days: new Set, iap: 0, ad: 0, acq: undefined };
+    if (row.active ?? true)
+      u.days.add(day);
+    u.iap += Math.max(0, row.iapRevenue);
+    u.ad += Math.max(0, row.adRevenue);
+    if (row.acquisitionCost !== undefined && Number.isFinite(row.acquisitionCost)) {
+      u.acq = (u.acq ?? 0) + Math.max(0, row.acquisitionCost);
     }
+    users.set(row.userId, u);
+  }
+  const cohortSize = Math.max(1, users.size);
+  const dayActiveCount = (targetDay) => {
+    let count = 0;
+    for (const user of users.values())
+      if (user.days.has(targetDay))
+        count += 1;
+    return count;
   };
-}
-function quantile2(values, q) {
-  if (values.length === 0)
-    return 0;
-  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b);
-  const idx = Math.max(0, Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.floor((sorted.length - 1) * q)));
-  return sorted[idx] ?? 0;
-}
-function estimateLtvDistribution(args) {
-  const rng = mulberry323(args.seed);
-  const grossSamples = [];
-  const netSamples = [];
-  const ltvSamples = [];
-  const draws = Math.max(1, args.draws);
-  for (let i = 0;i < draws; i++) {
-    const sampled = makeUncertainConfig(args.config, rng);
-    const point = estimateLtvPerUser({
-      config: sampled,
-      horizonDays: args.horizonDays,
-      progression: args.progression
-    });
-    grossSamples.push(point.cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser);
-    netSamples.push(point.cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser);
-    ltvSamples.push(point.cumulativeLtvPerUser);
+  const d1 = dayActiveCount(1) / cohortSize;
+  const d7 = dayActiveCount(7) / cohortSize;
+  const d30 = dayActiveCount(30) / cohortSize;
+  const d90 = dayActiveCount(90) / cohortSize;
+  let totalIap = 0;
+  let totalAd = 0;
+  let payerUsers = 0;
+  let activeUserDays = 0;
+  let payerDays = 0;
+  let totalAcq = 0;
+  let acqUsers = 0;
+  for (const user of users.values()) {
+    totalIap += user.iap;
+    totalAd += user.ad;
+    if (user.iap > 0)
+      payerUsers += 1;
+    activeUserDays += user.days.size;
+    for (const day of user.days) {
+      if (day >= 0 && user.iap > 0)
+        payerDays += 1;
+    }
+    if (user.acq !== undefined) {
+      totalAcq += user.acq;
+      acqUsers += 1;
+    }
   }
-  const avg = (arr) => arr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / Math.max(1, arr.length);
-  const byQuantile = {};
-  for (const q of args.quantiles) {
-    byQuantile[`q${Math.round(q * 100)}`] = quantile2(ltvSamples, q);
+  const payerConversion = payerUsers / cohortSize;
+  const arppuDaily = totalIap / Math.max(1, payerDays);
+  const adArpDau = totalAd / Math.max(1, activeUserDays);
+  const cpi = totalAcq / Math.max(1, acqUsers);
+  const userRetention = [];
+  const userConversion = [];
+  const userArppu = [];
+  const userAdArpDau = [];
+  for (const user of users.values()) {
+    const activeDays = Math.max(1, user.days.size);
+    const retentionScore = clamp014(activeDays / 30);
+    const conversionScore = user.iap > 0 ? 1 : 0;
+    const arppuScore = user.iap > 0 ? user.iap / activeDays : 0;
+    const adScore = user.ad / activeDays;
+    userRetention.push(retentionScore);
+    userConversion.push(conversionScore);
+    userArppu.push(arppuScore);
+    userAdArpDau.push(adScore);
   }
-  return {
-    mean: {
-      cumulativeGrossRevenuePerUser: avg(grossSamples),
-      cumulativeNetRevenuePerUser: avg(netSamples),
-      cumulativeLtvPerUser: avg(ltvSamples)
+  const estimatedCorrelationPair = {
+    retentionConversion: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userConversion),
+    retentionArppu: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userArppu),
+    retentionAd: estimateCorrelation(userRetention, userAdArpDau),
+    conversionArppu: estimateCorrelation(userConversion, userArppu),
+    conversionAd: estimateCorrelation(userConversion, userAdArpDau),
+    arppuAd: estimateCorrelation(userArppu, userAdArpDau)
+  };
+  const estimatedCorrelation = {
+    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.value,
+    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.value,
+    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.value,
+    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.value,
+    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.value,
+    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.value
+  };
+  const estimatedCorrelationRaw = {
+    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.raw,
+    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.raw,
+    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.raw,
+    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.raw,
+    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.raw,
+    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.raw
+  };
+  const correlationConfidence = {
+    retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionConversion.confidence,
+    retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionArppu.confidence,
+    retentionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.retentionAd.confidence,
+    conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionArppu.confidence,
+    conversionAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.conversionAd.confidence,
+    arppuAd: estimatedCorrelationPair.arppuAd.confidence
+  };
+  const result = {
+    monetization: {
+      cohorts: {
+        baseUsers: cohortSize
+      },
+      retention: {
+        d1: clamp014(d1),
+        d7: clamp014(Math.min(d1, d7)),
+        d30: clamp014(Math.min(d1, d7, d30)),
+        d90: clamp014(Math.min(d1, d7, d30, d90)),
+        longTailDailyDecay: 0.02
+      },
+      revenue: {
+        payerConversion: clamp014(payerConversion),
+        arppuDaily: Math.max(0, arppuDaily),
+        adArpDau: Math.max(0, adArpDau),
+        platformFeeRate: 0.3,
+        grossMarginRate: 0.92
+      },
+      acquisition: {
+        cpi: Math.max(0, cpi)
+      },
+      uncertainty: {
+        enabled: true,
+        draws: 300,
+        quantiles: [0.5, 0.9],
+        sigma: {
+          retention: 0.08,
+          conversion: 0.12,
+          arppu: 0.2,
+          ad: 0.15
+        },
+        correlation: {
+          retentionConversion: estimatedCorrelation.retentionConversion,
+          retentionArppu: estimatedCorrelation.retentionArppu,
+          retentionAd: estimatedCorrelation.retentionAd,
+          conversionArppu: estimatedCorrelation.conversionArppu,
+          conversionAd: estimatedCorrelation.conversionAd,
+          arppuAd: estimatedCorrelation.arppuAd
+        }
+      }
     },
-    quantiles: byQuantile
+    diagnostics: {
+      users: cohortSize,
+      totalRows: rows.length,
+      totalIap,
+      totalAd,
+      activeUserDays,
+      payerUsers,
+      payerDays,
+      retention: {
+        d1,
+        d7,
+        d30,
+        d90
+      },
+      userFeatureVariance: {
+        retention: variance(userRetention),
+        conversion: variance(userConversion),
+        arppu: variance(userArppu),
+        adArpDau: variance(userAdArpDau)
+      },
+      estimatedCorrelation,
+      estimatedCorrelationRaw,
+      correlationConfidence,
+      correlationDiagnostics: estimatedCorrelationPair
+    }
   };
+  assertFiniteNumbers(result, "calibration");
+  return result;
 }
+// src/lib/ltvProjection.ts
+init_dist2();
+// src/lib/ltvUncertainty.ts
+init_dist2();
 // src/lib/cohortObservation.ts
 var RETENTION_DAYS = [1, 7, 30, 90];
 function observeCohort(rows, observedThroughDay) {
@@ -40329,7 +40410,7 @@ function parseHorizons(raw) {
 }
 var DEFAULT_LTV_HORIZONS = "30m,2h,24h,7d,30d,90d";
 function ltvUncertaintyDraws(scenario, draws) {
-  const uncertainty = deriveMonetizationConfig(scenario).uncertainty;
+  const uncertainty = deriveMonetizationConfig2(scenario).uncertainty;
   return uncertainty.enabled || draws !== undefined ? draws ?? uncertainty.draws : null;
 }
 function ltvStageInputs(scenario, horizons, draws) {
@@ -40391,7 +40472,7 @@ function runLtvAnalysis(args) {
   const horizons = parseHorizons(args.horizonsRaw);
   const stepSec = args.step ?? args.compiled.run.stepSec;
   const runFast = resolveFastMode(args.fast, args.compiled.run.fast);
-  const monetizationConfig = deriveMonetizationConfig(args.scenario);
+  const monetizationConfig = deriveMonetizationConfig2(args.scenario);
   const uncertainEnabled = monetizationConfig.uncertainty.enabled || args.draws !== undefined;
   const draws = args.draws ?? monetizationConfig.uncertainty.draws;
   let state = args.compiled.initial;
@@ -40451,12 +40532,12 @@ function runLtvAnalysis(args) {
     const endWorthLog10 = args.compiled.ctx.E.absLog10(worth.amount);
     const progression = progressionFactor(startWorthLog10, endWorthLog10, monetizationConfig.revenue.progressionLogSpan);
     const horizonDays = h.seconds / 86400;
-    const point = estimateLtvPerUser({
+    const point = estimateLtvPerUser2({
       config: monetizationConfig,
       horizonDays,
       progression
     });
-    const distribution = uncertainEnabled && draws > 1 ? estimateLtvDistribution({
+    const distribution = uncertainEnabled && draws > 1 ? estimateLtvDistribution2({
       config: monetizationConfig,
       horizonDays,
       progression,
@@ -44105,4 +44186,4 @@ export {
   cli2 as cli
 };
 
-//# debugId=4AAADDD1336AF66164756E2164756E21
+//# debugId=A3CAAFDF1955C7F064756E2164756E21