@hmharness/agent 0.23.3 → 0.23.4

package/dist/cognitive-recorder.d.ts

@@ -7,7 +7,14 @@ export declare class CognitiveRunRecorder {
     private seq;
     private failures;
     private successes;
+    /** per-action-type success EMA seeded from history — lets EVERY regular
+     *  task step carry a prediction, feeding the calibration dimension (the
+     *  §26-proven value) from 115/3043 steps toward full coverage */
+    private beliefs;
     constructor(home: string, task: string, sessionId: string, cwd: string);
+    private seedBeliefs;
+    private predict;
+    private learn;
     /** loop onToolCall: open a step for this tool invocation */
     call(toolName: string, args: Record<string, unknown>): void;
     /** loop onToolResult: close the matching step (same tool, FIFO) */

package/dist/cognitive-recorder.js

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
  * environment/session — MEM-007). Everything here is best-effort: cognitive
  * recording must never break a task run.
  */
-import { TrajectoryStore, TrajectoryRecorder, CognitiveMemory } from '@hmharness/cognitive';
+import { TrajectoryStore, TrajectoryRecorder, CognitiveMemory, loadTrajectories } from '@hmharness/cognitive';
 export class CognitiveRunRecorder {
     home;
     cwd;
@@ -19,11 +19,44 @@ export class CognitiveRunRecorder {
     seq = 0;
     failures = 0;
     successes = 0;
+    /** per-action-type success EMA seeded from history — lets EVERY regular
+     *  task step carry a prediction, feeding the calibration dimension (the
+     *  §26-proven value) from 115/3043 steps toward full coverage */
+    beliefs = new Map();
     constructor(home, task, sessionId, cwd) {
         this.home = home;
         this.cwd = cwd;
         this.store = new TrajectoryStore(home);
         this.rec = new TrajectoryRecorder(`trj-${sessionId}-${Date.now().toString(36)}`, sessionId, { id: 'terminal', version: '1.0.0' }, { id: `goal-${sessionId}`, description: task });
+        // seed beliefs from recent history (best-effort, never blocks a task)
+        void this.seedBeliefs().catch(() => undefined);
+    }
+    async seedBeliefs() {
+        const trajectories = await loadTrajectories(this.home, 200);
+        const table = new Map();
+        for (const traj of trajectories) {
+            for (const s of traj.steps) {
+                const t = s.action.type;
+                const agg = table.get(t) ?? { sum: 0, n: 0 };
+                agg.sum += s.outcome === 'success' ? 1 : 0;
+                agg.n += 1;
+                table.set(t, agg);
+            }
+        }
+        for (const [t, v] of table)
+            this.beliefs.set(t, { rate: v.sum / v.n, n: v.n });
+    }
+    predict(type) {
+        const b = this.beliefs.get(type);
+        if (!b)
+            return undefined; // unseen tool: no prediction beats a fake one
+        return { claim: `${type} succeeds ~${Math.round(b.rate * 100)}% (n=${b.n})`, confidence: Number(b.rate.toFixed(3)) };
+    }
+    learn(type, success) {
+        const b = this.beliefs.get(type) ?? { rate: success ? 1 : 0, n: 0 };
+        b.rate = (b.rate * b.n + (success ? 1 : 0)) / (b.n + 1);
+        b.n += 1;
+        this.beliefs.set(type, b);
     }
     /** loop onToolCall: open a step for this tool invocation */
     call(toolName, args) {
@@ -31,6 +64,7 @@ export class CognitiveRunRecorder {
         this.open.set(key, {
             action: { id: key, type: toolName, args: clip(args), reason: 'agent loop tool call' },
             startedAt: Date.now(),
+            prediction: this.predict(toolName),
         });
     }
     /** loop onToolResult: close the matching step (same tool, FIFO) */
@@ -39,14 +73,17 @@ export class CognitiveRunRecorder {
             if (!key.startsWith(`${toolName}#`))
                 continue;
             this.open.delete(key);
+            const success = !isError;
             if (isError)
                 this.failures += 1;
             else
                 this.successes += 1;
+            this.learn(toolName, success);
             this.rec.record({
                 action: open.action,
                 outcome: isError ? 'failure' : 'success',
                 evidence: [],
+                prediction: open.prediction,
                 durationMs: Date.now() - open.startedAt,
             });
             return;
@@ -57,6 +94,7 @@ export class CognitiveRunRecorder {
             action: { id: `${toolName}#${++this.seq}`, type: toolName, args: {}, reason: 'tool result without recorded call' },
             outcome: isError ? 'failure' : 'success',
             evidence: [],
+            prediction: this.predict(toolName),
         });
     }
     /** task end: persist trajectory + episodic memory index entry */

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@hmharness/agent",
-  "version": "0.23.3",
+  "version": "0.23.4",
   "description": "hmharness agent execution layer: base tools, system prompt, sub-agent spawn, and the shared task runner that frontends (cli, web) drive.",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "dist/index.js",
@@ -15,13 +15,13 @@
     "build": "tsc -p tsconfig.build.json"
   },
   "dependencies": {
-    "@hmharness/cognitive": "0.23.3",
-    "@hmharness/domain-harmony": "0.23.3",
-    "@hmharness/domain-ops": "0.23.3",
-    "@hmharness/evolution": "0.23.3",
-    "@hmharness/kernel": "0.23.3",
-    "@hmharness/observability": "0.23.3",
-    "@hmharness/sandbox": "0.23.3"
+    "@hmharness/cognitive": "0.23.4",
+    "@hmharness/domain-harmony": "0.23.4",
+    "@hmharness/domain-ops": "0.23.4",
+    "@hmharness/evolution": "0.23.4",
+    "@hmharness/kernel": "0.23.4",
+    "@hmharness/observability": "0.23.4",
+    "@hmharness/sandbox": "0.23.4"
   },
   "files": [
     "dist"