@higher.archi/boe 1.0.16 → 1.0.17

package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -60,4 +60,5 @@ export type { DecayCurve, DecayTimeUnit, DecayConfig, DecayInfo } from './core/e
 export * from './qfacts';
 export * from './abtesting';
 export * from './compare';
+export * from './promotion';
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.d.ts.map

package/dist/index.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"index.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../src/index.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAcG;AAOH,OAAO,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAClD,OAAO,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AACpD,OAAO,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAClD,OAAO,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,sBAAsB,CAAC;AACxD,OAAO,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,iBAAiB,CAAC;AAC9C,OAAO,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AACpD,OAAO,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,uBAAuB,CAAC;AACzD,OAAO,EAAE,kBAAkB,EAAE,MAAM,yBAAyB,CAAC;AAC7D,OAAO,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,sBAAsB,CAAC;AACxD,OAAO,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAClD,OAAO,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAMlD,cAAc,QAAQ,CAAC;AAOvB,OAAO,EACL,uBAAuB,EACvB,qBAAqB,EACrB,kBAAkB,EAClB,eAAe,EAChB,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAC3B,YAAY,EACV,WAAW,EACX,cAAc,EACd,aAAa,EACb,sBAAsB,EACtB,mBAAmB,EACnB,cAAc,EACd,aAAa,EACb,cAAc,EACd,aAAa,EACd,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAG3B,OAAO,EACL,wBAAwB,EACxB,sBAAsB,EACtB,gBAAgB,EACjB,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AAC5B,YAAY,EACV,YAAY,EACZ,eAAe,EACf,cAAc,EACd,uBAAuB,EACvB,eAAe,EACf,cAAc,EACd,SAAS,EACT,WAAW,EACZ,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AAG5B,OAAO,EACL,eAAe,EACf,qBAAqB,EACrB,eAAe,EACf,mBAAmB,EACpB,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAC3B,YAAY,EACV,WAAW,EACX,cAAc,EACd,aAAa,EACb,sBAAsB,EACtB,cAAc,EACd,aAAa,EACb,aAAa,EACb,qBAAqB,EACrB,aAAa,EACb,YAAY,EACZ,eAAe,EACf,cAAc,EACd,gBAAgB,EAChB,mBAAmB,EACnB,cAAc,EACd,kBAAkB,EAClB,iBAAiB,EACjB,iBAAiB,EACjB,eAAe,EACf,eAAe,EACf,mBAAmB,EACnB,kBAAkB,EAClB,kBAAkB,EAClB,cAAc,EACd,0BAA0B,EAC1B,YAAY,EACZ,cAAc,EACd,SAAS,EACT,oBAAoB,EACpB,gBAAgB,EACjB,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAG3B,OAAO,EACL,kBAAkB,EAClB,wBAAwB,EACxB,kBAAkB,EACnB,MAAM,sBAAsB,CAAC;AAC9B,YAAY,EACV,cAAc,EACd,iBAAiB,EACjB,gBAAgB,EAChB,yBAAyB,EACzB,iBAAiB,EACjB,gBAAgB,EACjB,MAAM,sBAAsB,CAAC;AAG9B,OAAO,EACL,aAAa,EACb,mBAAmB,EACnB,aAAa,EACb,oBAAoB,EACpB,eAAe,EACf,kBAAkB,EACnB,MAAM,iBAAiB,CAAC;AACzB,YAAY,EACV,SAAS,EACT,YAAY,EACZ,YAAY,EACZ,WAAW,EACX,aAAa,EACb,SAAS,EACT,oBAAoB,EACpB,qBAAqB,EACrB,eAAe,EACf,eAAe,EAChB,MAAM,iBAAiB,CAAC;AAGzB,OAAO,EACL,gBAAgB,EAChB,sBAAsB,EACtB,mBAAmB,EACnB,gBAAgB,EAChB,eAAe,EACf,oBAAoB,EACrB,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AAC5B,YAAY,EACV,YAAY,EACZ,eAAe,EACf,cAAc,EACd,uBAAuB,EACvB,oBAAoB,EACpB,eAAe,EACf,cAAc,EACd,UAAU,EACV,UAAU,EACV,YAAY,EACZ,eAAe,EACf,aAAa,EACb,kBAAkB,EAClB,aAAa,EACd,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AAG5B,OAAO,EACL,kBAAkB,EAClB,wBAAwB,EACxB,kBAAkB,EACnB,MAAM,uBAAuB,CAAC;AAC/B,YAAY,EACV,kBAAkB,EAClB,gBAAgB,EAChB,iBAAiB,EACjB,gBAAgB,EAChB,yBAAyB,EACzB,iBAAiB,EACjB,gBAAgB,EAChB,gBAAgB,EACjB,MAAM,uBAAuB,CAAC;AAG/B,OAAO,EACL,oBAAoB,EACpB,mBAAmB,EACnB,6BAA6B,EAC7B,oBAAoB,EACrB,MAAM,yBAAyB,CAAC;AACjC,YAAY,EACV,sBAAsB,EACtB,kBAAkB,EAClB,eAAe,EACf,eAAe,EACf,8BAA8B,EAC9B,eAAe,EACf,gBAAgB,EAChB,mBAAmB,EACpB,MAAM,yBAAyB,CAAC;AAGjC,OAAO,EACL,kBAAkB,EAClB,wBAAwB,EACxB,kBAAkB,EACnB,MAAM,sBAAsB,CAAC;AAC9B,YAAY,EACV,kBAAkB,EAClB,UAAU,EACV,UAAU,EACV,gBAAgB,EAChB,cAAc,EACd,iBAAiB,EACjB,gBAAgB,EAChB,yBAAyB,EACzB,kBAAkB,EAClB,iBAAiB,EACjB,gBAAgB,EAChB,mBAAmB,EACnB,cAAc,EACf,MAAM,sBAAsB,CAAC;AAC9B,OAAO,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,sBAAsB,CAAC;AAGxD,OAAO,EACL,eAAe,EACf,qBAAqB,EACrB,kBAAkB,EAClB,eAAe,EAChB,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAC3B,YAAY,EACV,gBAAgB,EAChB,WAAW,EACX,cAAc,EACd,aAAa,EACb,wBAAwB,EACxB,mBAAmB,EACnB,sBAAsB,EACtB,iBAAiB,EACjB,eAAe,EACf,cAAc,EACd,aAAa,EACb,gBAAgB,EAChB,qBAAqB,EACtB,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAG3B,OAAO,EACL,gBAAgB,EAChB,wBAAwB,EACzB,MAAM,sBAAsB,CAAC;AAC9B,YAAY,EACV,cAAc,EACd,iBAAiB,EACjB,gBAAgB,EAChB,yBAAyB,EACzB,iBAAiB,EACjB,gBAAgB,EACjB,MAAM,sBAAsB,CAAC;AAG9B,OAAO,EACL,YAAY,EACZ,cAAc,EACd,oBAAoB,EACpB,cAAc,EACd,eAAe,EACf,WAAW,EACX,gBAAgB,EAChB,kBAAkB,EACnB,MAAM,kBAAkB,CAAC;AAC1B,YAAY,EACV,UAAU,EACV,aAAa,EACb,YAAY,EACZ,YAAY,EACZ,qBAAqB,EACrB,kBAAkB,EAClB,oBAAoB,EACpB,gBAAgB,EAChB,aAAa,EACb,YAAY,EACZ,iBAAiB,EACjB,aAAa,EACb,SAAS,EACT,WAAW,EACX,oBAAoB,EACrB,MAAM,kBAAkB,CAAC;AAO1B,OAAO,EACL,eAAe,EACf,qBAAqB,EACrB,kBAAkB,EAClB,eAAe,EACf,aAAa,EACb,aAAa,EACb,kBAAkB,EAClB,eAAe,EACf,cAAc,EACd,YAAY,EACZ,aAAa,EACb,KAAK,EACL,iBAAiB,EACjB,WAAW,EAEX,UAAU,EACV,eAAe,EAChB,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAC3B,YAAY,EAEV,YAAY,EACZ,YAAY,EAEZ,WAAW,EACX,cAAc,EACd,aAAa,EACb,gBAAgB,EAChB,WAAW,EACX,YAAY,EACZ,cAAc,EACd,WAAW,EACX,aAAa,EACb,gBAAgB,EAChB,aAAa,EACb,aAAa,EACb,KAAK,EACL,iBAAiB,EACjB,cAAc,EACd,UAAU,EACV,kBAAkB,EAClB,iBAAiB,EACjB,iBAAiB,EACjB,MAAM,EACN,kBAAkB,EAClB,mBAAmB,EACnB,eAAe,EACf,WAAW,EAEX,qBAAqB,EACrB,sBAAsB,EACtB,mBAAmB,EACnB,wBAAwB,EACxB,mBAAmB,EACnB,kBAAkB,EAClB,cAAc,EAEd,cAAc,EACd,aAAa,EACb,wBAAwB,EACxB,cAAc,EACd,eAAe,EACf,gBAAgB,EAChB,aAAa,EACb,WAAW,EACX,cAAc,EACd,iBAAiB,EACjB,qBAAqB,EACtB,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAM3B,OAAO,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,WAAW,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,aAAa,CAAC;AAG7E,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,eAAe,CAAC;AACzE,YAAY,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,eAAe,CAAC;AAGlD,OAAO,EACL,wBAAwB,EACxB,qBAAqB,EACtB,MAAM,yBAAyB,CAAC;AACjC,YAAY,EACV,UAAU,EACV,aAAa,EACb,WAAW,EACX,SAAS,EACV,MAAM,yBAAyB,CAAC;AAMjC,cAAc,UAAU,CAAC;AAMzB,cAAc,aAAa,CAAC;AAM5B,cAAc,WAAW,CAAC;AAM1B,cAAc,aAAa,CAAC"}

package/dist/index.js

@@ -191,4 +191,8 @@ __exportStar(require("./abtesting"), exports);
 // Compare - Ruleset Comparison Utility
 // ========================================
 __exportStar(require("./compare"), exports);
+// ========================================
+// Promotion — Counterfactual Scoring Analysis
+// ========================================
+__exportStar(require("./promotion"), exports);
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/promotion/index.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+export type { PromotionOpportunity, PromotionTarget, PromotionResult } from './types';
+export { promotionPath } from './promotion';
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.d.ts.map

package/dist/promotion/index.d.ts.map

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package/dist/promotion/index.js

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+"use strict";
+Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
+exports.promotionPath = void 0;
+// Core promotion path
+var promotion_1 = require("./promotion");
+Object.defineProperty(exports, "promotionPath", { enumerable: true, get: function () { return promotion_1.promotionPath; } });
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/promotion/index.js.map

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package/dist/promotion/promotion.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+/**
+ * Promotion Path — Counterfactual Scoring Analysis
+ *
+ * Analyzes unfired rules in a scoring result to generate ranked,
+ * actionable improvement roadmaps. Given a ruleset, facts, and a
+ * target (tier or score), identifies what scoring opportunities
+ * remain and how much each could contribute.
+ */
+import type { CompiledScoringRuleSet, ScoringOptions, TierDefinition } from '../engines/scoring/types';
+import type { FactInput } from '../core';
+import type { PromotionTarget, PromotionResult } from './types';
+/**
+ * Compute a promotion path — the ranked set of unfired rules that could
+ * close the gap between a current score and a target score or tier.
+ *
+ * @param ruleset - Compiled scoring ruleset to analyze
+ * @param facts - Facts to score against the ruleset
+ * @param target - Target tier or score to reach
+ * @param options - Optional scoring options passed to engine execution
+ * @returns Promotion result with gap analysis and ranked opportunities
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const path = promotionPath(athleteRuleset, athleteFacts, { tier: 'premium' });
+ *
+ * console.log(`Current: ${path.currentScore} (${path.currentTier})`);
+ * console.log(`Target: ${path.targetScore} (${path.targetTier})`);
+ * console.log(`Gap: ${path.gap} points`);
+ *
+ * for (const opp of path.opportunities) {
+ *   const impact = opp.dynamic ? 'variable' : `+${opp.potentialScore}`;
+ *   console.log(`  ${opp.ruleId}: ${impact} — ${opp.reason ?? 'no reason'}`);
+ * }
+ * ```
+ */
+export declare function promotionPath<T extends TierDefinition = TierDefinition>(ruleset: CompiledScoringRuleSet<T>, facts: FactInput[], target: PromotionTarget, options?: ScoringOptions): PromotionResult<T>;
+//# sourceMappingURL=promotion.d.ts.map

package/dist/promotion/promotion.d.ts.map

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package/dist/promotion/promotion.js

@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
+"use strict";
+/**
+ * Promotion Path — Counterfactual Scoring Analysis
+ *
+ * Analyzes unfired rules in a scoring result to generate ranked,
+ * actionable improvement roadmaps. Given a ruleset, facts, and a
+ * target (tier or score), identifies what scoring opportunities
+ * remain and how much each could contribute.
+ */
+Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
+exports.promotionPath = promotionPath;
+const engine_1 = require("../engines/scoring/engine");
+/**
+ * Compute a promotion path — the ranked set of unfired rules that could
+ * close the gap between a current score and a target score or tier.
+ *
+ * @param ruleset - Compiled scoring ruleset to analyze
+ * @param facts - Facts to score against the ruleset
+ * @param target - Target tier or score to reach
+ * @param options - Optional scoring options passed to engine execution
+ * @returns Promotion result with gap analysis and ranked opportunities
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const path = promotionPath(athleteRuleset, athleteFacts, { tier: 'premium' });
+ *
+ * console.log(`Current: ${path.currentScore} (${path.currentTier})`);
+ * console.log(`Target: ${path.targetScore} (${path.targetTier})`);
+ * console.log(`Gap: ${path.gap} points`);
+ *
+ * for (const opp of path.opportunities) {
+ *   const impact = opp.dynamic ? 'variable' : `+${opp.potentialScore}`;
+ *   console.log(`  ${opp.ruleId}: ${impact} — ${opp.reason ?? 'no reason'}`);
+ * }
+ * ```
+ */
+function promotionPath(ruleset, facts, target, options = {}) {
+    const start = performance.now();
+    // 1. Execute scoring engine
+    const engine = new engine_1.ScoringEngine();
+    for (const fact of facts) {
+        engine.add(fact);
+    }
+    const result = engine.execute(ruleset, options);
+    // 2. Resolve target score
+    let targetScore;
+    let targetTier;
+    if ('tier' in target && target.tier !== undefined) {
+        targetTier = target.tier;
+        const tiers = ruleset.config.tiers;
+        if (!tiers || tiers.length === 0) {
+            throw new Error(`Cannot target tier "${target.tier}": no tiers configured in ruleset`);
+        }
+        const tierDef = tiers.find(t => t.id === target.tier);
+        if (!tierDef) {
+            const available = tiers.map(t => t.id).join(', ');
+            throw new Error(`Tier "${target.tier}" not found. Available: ${available}`);
+        }
+        const threshold = tierDef.threshold;
+        targetScore = threshold === '-Infinity' ? 0 : threshold;
+    }
+    else {
+        targetScore = target.score;
+    }
+    // 3. Compute gap
+    const currentScore = result.totalScore;
+    const gap = Math.max(0, targetScore - currentScore);
+    const alreadyMet = currentScore >= targetScore;
+    // 4. Identify unfired rules and extract opportunities
+    const firedSet = new Set(result.fired);
+    const opportunities = [];
+    for (const rule of ruleset.rules) {
+        if (firedSet.has(rule.id))
+            continue;
+        const score = rule.action.score;
+        const weight = rule.action.weight ?? 1;
+        let potentialScore;
+        let dynamic;
+        if (typeof score === 'number') {
+            potentialScore = score * weight;
+            dynamic = false;
+        }
+        else {
+            // string (function name) or CompiledCondition (expression)
+            potentialScore = null;
+            dynamic = true;
+        }
+        opportunities.push({
+            ruleId: rule.id,
+            ruleName: rule.name,
+            category: rule.category,
+            potentialScore,
+            reason: rule.action.reason,
+            dynamic,
+        });
+    }
+    // 5. Sort: static scores descending, dynamic (nulls) at end
+    opportunities.sort((a, b) => {
+        if (a.potentialScore !== null && b.potentialScore !== null) {
+            return b.potentialScore - a.potentialScore;
+        }
+        if (a.potentialScore !== null)
+            return -1;
+        if (b.potentialScore !== null)
+            return 1;
+        return 0;
+    });
+    // 6. Sum static recoverable scores
+    let totalRecoverable = 0;
+    for (const opp of opportunities) {
+        if (opp.potentialScore !== null) {
+            totalRecoverable += opp.potentialScore;
+        }
+    }
+    const executionTimeMs = performance.now() - start;
+    return {
+        currentScore,
+        currentTier: result.tier?.id,
+        targetScore,
+        targetTier,
+        gap,
+        alreadyMet,
+        opportunities,
+        totalRecoverable,
+        result,
+        executionTimeMs,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=promotion.js.map

package/dist/promotion/promotion.js.map

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package/dist/promotion/types.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+/**
+ * Promotion Path Types
+ *
+ * Types for counterfactual scoring analysis — identifying unfired rules
+ * and ranking them by potential impact to generate promotion roadmaps.
+ */
+import type { ScoringResult, TierDefinition } from '../engines/scoring/types';
+/** A single unfired rule representing a scoring opportunity */
+export type PromotionOpportunity = {
+    ruleId: string;
+    ruleName?: string;
+    category?: string;
+    potentialScore: number | null;
+    reason?: string;
+    dynamic: boolean;
+};
+/** Target specification — reach a tier or a raw score threshold */
+export type PromotionTarget = {
+    tier: string;
+    score?: never;
+} | {
+    score: number;
+    tier?: never;
+};
+/** Promotion path result */
+export type PromotionResult<T extends TierDefinition = TierDefinition> = {
+    currentScore: number;
+    currentTier?: string;
+    targetScore: number;
+    targetTier?: string;
+    gap: number;
+    alreadyMet: boolean;
+    opportunities: PromotionOpportunity[];
+    totalRecoverable: number;
+    result: ScoringResult<T>;
+    executionTimeMs: number;
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=types.d.ts.map

package/dist/promotion/types.d.ts.map

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package/dist/promotion/types.js

@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+"use strict";
+/**
+ * Promotion Path Types
+ *
+ * Types for counterfactual scoring analysis — identifying unfired rules
+ * and ranking them by potential impact to generate promotion roadmaps.
+ */
+Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
+//# sourceMappingURL=types.js.map

package/dist/promotion/types.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"types.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/promotion/types.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":";AAAA;;;;;GAKG"}

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@higher.archi/boe",
-  "version": "1.0.16",
+  "version": "1.0.17",
   "description": "A multi-strategy rule engine supporting forward chaining, backward chaining, scoring, sequential, fuzzy logic, and Bayesian inference",
   "main": "dist/index.js",
   "types": "dist/index.d.ts",

package/src/index.ts

@@ -418,3 +418,9 @@ export * from './abtesting';
 // ========================================
 
 export * from './compare';
+
+// ========================================
+// Promotion — Counterfactual Scoring Analysis
+// ========================================
+
+export * from './promotion';

package/src/promotion/index.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+// Types
+export type { PromotionOpportunity, PromotionTarget, PromotionResult } from './types';
+
+// Core promotion path
+export { promotionPath } from './promotion';

package/src/promotion/promotion.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
+/**
+ * Promotion Path — Counterfactual Scoring Analysis
+ *
+ * Analyzes unfired rules in a scoring result to generate ranked,
+ * actionable improvement roadmaps. Given a ruleset, facts, and a
+ * target (tier or score), identifies what scoring opportunities
+ * remain and how much each could contribute.
+ */
+
+import { ScoringEngine } from '../engines/scoring/engine';
+import type {
+  CompiledScoringRuleSet,
+  ScoringOptions,
+  TierDefinition
+} from '../engines/scoring/types';
+import type { FactInput } from '../core';
+import type { PromotionTarget, PromotionResult, PromotionOpportunity } from './types';
+
+/**
+ * Compute a promotion path — the ranked set of unfired rules that could
+ * close the gap between a current score and a target score or tier.
+ *
+ * @param ruleset - Compiled scoring ruleset to analyze
+ * @param facts - Facts to score against the ruleset
+ * @param target - Target tier or score to reach
+ * @param options - Optional scoring options passed to engine execution
+ * @returns Promotion result with gap analysis and ranked opportunities
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const path = promotionPath(athleteRuleset, athleteFacts, { tier: 'premium' });
+ *
+ * console.log(`Current: ${path.currentScore} (${path.currentTier})`);
+ * console.log(`Target: ${path.targetScore} (${path.targetTier})`);
+ * console.log(`Gap: ${path.gap} points`);
+ *
+ * for (const opp of path.opportunities) {
+ *   const impact = opp.dynamic ? 'variable' : `+${opp.potentialScore}`;
+ *   console.log(`  ${opp.ruleId}: ${impact} — ${opp.reason ?? 'no reason'}`);
+ * }
+ * ```
+ */
+export function promotionPath<T extends TierDefinition = TierDefinition>(
+  ruleset: CompiledScoringRuleSet<T>,
+  facts: FactInput[],
+  target: PromotionTarget,
+  options: ScoringOptions = {}
+): PromotionResult<T> {
+  const start = performance.now();
+
+  // 1. Execute scoring engine
+  const engine = new ScoringEngine();
+  for (const fact of facts) {
+    engine.add(fact);
+  }
+  const result = engine.execute(ruleset, options);
+
+  // 2. Resolve target score
+  let targetScore: number;
+  let targetTier: string | undefined;
+
+  if ('tier' in target && target.tier !== undefined) {
+    targetTier = target.tier;
+    const tiers = ruleset.config.tiers;
+    if (!tiers || tiers.length === 0) {
+      throw new Error(`Cannot target tier "${target.tier}": no tiers configured in ruleset`);
+    }
+    const tierDef = tiers.find(t => t.id === target.tier);
+    if (!tierDef) {
+      const available = tiers.map(t => t.id).join(', ');
+      throw new Error(`Tier "${target.tier}" not found. Available: ${available}`);
+    }
+    const threshold = tierDef.threshold;
+    targetScore = threshold === '-Infinity' ? 0 : threshold;
+  } else {
+    targetScore = target.score;
+  }
+
+  // 3. Compute gap
+  const currentScore = result.totalScore;
+  const gap = Math.max(0, targetScore - currentScore);
+  const alreadyMet = currentScore >= targetScore;
+
+  // 4. Identify unfired rules and extract opportunities
+  const firedSet = new Set(result.fired);
+  const opportunities: PromotionOpportunity[] = [];
+
+  for (const rule of ruleset.rules) {
+    if (firedSet.has(rule.id)) continue;
+
+    const score = rule.action.score;
+    const weight = rule.action.weight ?? 1;
+    let potentialScore: number | null;
+    let dynamic: boolean;
+
+    if (typeof score === 'number') {
+      potentialScore = score * weight;
+      dynamic = false;
+    } else {
+      // string (function name) or CompiledCondition (expression)
+      potentialScore = null;
+      dynamic = true;
+    }
+
+    opportunities.push({
+      ruleId: rule.id,
+      ruleName: rule.name,
+      category: rule.category,
+      potentialScore,
+      reason: rule.action.reason,
+      dynamic,
+    });
+  }
+
+  // 5. Sort: static scores descending, dynamic (nulls) at end
+  opportunities.sort((a, b) => {
+    if (a.potentialScore !== null && b.potentialScore !== null) {
+      return b.potentialScore - a.potentialScore;
+    }
+    if (a.potentialScore !== null) return -1;
+    if (b.potentialScore !== null) return 1;
+    return 0;
+  });
+
+  // 6. Sum static recoverable scores
+  let totalRecoverable = 0;
+  for (const opp of opportunities) {
+    if (opp.potentialScore !== null) {
+      totalRecoverable += opp.potentialScore;
+    }
+  }
+
+  const executionTimeMs = performance.now() - start;
+
+  return {
+    currentScore,
+    currentTier: result.tier?.id,
+    targetScore,
+    targetTier,
+    gap,
+    alreadyMet,
+    opportunities,
+    totalRecoverable,
+    result,
+    executionTimeMs,
+  };
+}

package/src/promotion/types.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+/**
+ * Promotion Path Types
+ *
+ * Types for counterfactual scoring analysis — identifying unfired rules
+ * and ranking them by potential impact to generate promotion roadmaps.
+ */
+
+import type { ScoringResult, TierDefinition } from '../engines/scoring/types';
+
+/** A single unfired rule representing a scoring opportunity */
+export type PromotionOpportunity = {
+  ruleId: string;
+  ruleName?: string;
+  category?: string;
+  potentialScore: number | null;  // null = dynamic (expression/function)
+  reason?: string;                // from ScoringAction.reason
+  dynamic: boolean;               // true if score is expression/function
+};
+
+/** Target specification — reach a tier or a raw score threshold */
+export type PromotionTarget =
+  | { tier: string; score?: never }
+  | { score: number; tier?: never };
+
+/** Promotion path result */
+export type PromotionResult<T extends TierDefinition = TierDefinition> = {
+  currentScore: number;
+  currentTier?: string;
+  targetScore: number;            // resolved threshold of target tier, or explicit score
+  targetTier?: string;
+  gap: number;                    // targetScore - currentScore (0 if already met)
+  alreadyMet: boolean;            // true if current score/tier already meets target
+  opportunities: PromotionOpportunity[];  // ranked by potentialScore desc (nulls last)
+  totalRecoverable: number;       // sum of all static potentialScores
+  result: ScoringResult<T>;       // the full scoring result for reference
+  executionTimeMs: number;
+};