@hedge-layer/cli 2.1.0 → 3.0.0

package/dist/index.mjs

@@ -1026,29 +1026,82 @@ function feedQueryParams(opts) {
   return Object.fromEntries(entries);
 }
 var ENSEMBLE_SOURCES = [
-  { name: "liquid-new-or-long", params: { profile: "liquid-new-or-long", sortBy: "liquidity" } },
-  { name: "liquidity-provider", params: { profile: "liquidity-provider", sortBy: "lpExpectedReturn" } },
-  { name: "lp-opportunity", params: { profile: "lp-opportunity", sortBy: "rewardYield" } },
-  { name: "movement", params: { sortBy: "movement", preset: "price-movers" } },
-  { name: "spread", params: { sortBy: "spread", preset: "liquidity-provider" } },
-  { name: "reward-yield", params: { sortBy: "rewardYield", preset: "rewards-optimizer", minRewardsDailyRate: "0.01" } }
+  { name: "liquid-core", params: { sortBy: "liquidity", preset: "liquidity-focused" } },
+  { name: "active-volume", params: { sortBy: "volume", preset: "volume-hunter" } },
+  { name: "movers", params: { sortBy: "movement", preset: "price-movers" } },
+  { name: "new-markets", params: { sortBy: "recency", preset: "new-markets" } },
+  { name: "uncertainty", params: { sortBy: "extremity" } },
+  { name: "lp-quality", params: { profile: "liquidity-provider", sortBy: "lpExpectedReturn" } }
 ];
+var EXTREME_PROBABILITY_LOW = 0.07;
+var EXTREME_PROBABILITY_HIGH = 0.93;
+var EXTREME_PROBABILITY_MAX_PENALTY = 15;
+var HORIZON_PEAK_DAYS = 365;
+var HORIZON_LONG_TERM_DECAY_PER_YEAR = 4;
+var HORIZON_LONG_TERM_FLOOR = 2;
+var ENSEMBLE_SOURCE_SCORE_PER_SOURCE = 2;
+var ENSEMBLE_SOURCE_SCORE_MAX = 8;
+var ENSEMBLE_MAX_CANDIDATES_PER_EVENT = 2;
+var ENSEMBLE_MAX_SINGLE_SOURCE_CANDIDATES = 5;
 function num(value) {
   return Number.isFinite(value) ? Number(value) : 0;
 }
+function extremeProbabilityPenalty(candidate) {
+  const probability = Number.isFinite(candidate.probability) ? Number(candidate.probability) : candidate.yesPrice;
+  const boundedProbability = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, probability));
+  if (boundedProbability < EXTREME_PROBABILITY_LOW) {
+    return (EXTREME_PROBABILITY_LOW - boundedProbability) / EXTREME_PROBABILITY_LOW * EXTREME_PROBABILITY_MAX_PENALTY;
+  }
+  if (boundedProbability > EXTREME_PROBABILITY_HIGH) {
+    return (boundedProbability - EXTREME_PROBABILITY_HIGH) / (1 - EXTREME_PROBABILITY_HIGH) * EXTREME_PROBABILITY_MAX_PENALTY;
+  }
+  return 0;
+}
+function horizonScore(days) {
+  if (days === null) return 2;
+  if (days < 3) return 0;
+  if (days <= HORIZON_PEAK_DAYS) {
+    return Math.log1p(days) / Math.log1p(HORIZON_PEAK_DAYS) * 10;
+  }
+  const yearsPastPeak = (days - HORIZON_PEAK_DAYS) / HORIZON_PEAK_DAYS;
+  return Math.max(HORIZON_LONG_TERM_FLOOR, 10 - yearsPastPeak * HORIZON_LONG_TERM_DECAY_PER_YEAR);
+}
 function scoreCandidate(candidate, sourceCount) {
   const liquidityScore = Math.min(25, Math.log1p(Math.max(0, candidate.liquidity)) / Math.log1p(1e6) * 25);
   const volumeScore = Math.min(25, Math.log1p(Math.max(0, candidate.volume24h)) / Math.log1p(1e6) * 25);
   const spreadScore = Math.max(0, Math.min(15, (0.12 - Math.max(0, candidate.spread)) / 0.12 * 15));
   const movementPenalty = Math.min(20, Math.abs(candidate.oneDayPriceChange) * 100);
+  const probabilityPenalty = extremeProbabilityPenalty(candidate);
   const days = candidate.daysToEnd ?? null;
-  const horizonScore = days === null ? 2 : days < 3 ? 0 : Math.min(10, Math.log1p(days) / Math.log1p(365) * 10);
+  const horizon = horizonScore(days);
   const rewardScore = Math.max(
     0,
     Math.min(20, num(candidate.components?.rewardYield) * 0.1 + Math.max(0, num(candidate.lpExpectedReturnDailyPct)) * 50)
   );
-  const sourceScore = Math.min(16, sourceCount * 4);
-  return Math.round((liquidityScore + volumeScore + spreadScore + horizonScore + rewardScore + sourceScore - movementPenalty) * 10) / 10;
+  const sourceScore = Math.min(ENSEMBLE_SOURCE_SCORE_MAX, sourceCount * ENSEMBLE_SOURCE_SCORE_PER_SOURCE);
+  return Math.round(
+    (liquidityScore + volumeScore + spreadScore + horizon + rewardScore + sourceScore - movementPenalty - probabilityPenalty) * 10
+  ) / 10;
+}
+function diversifyCandidates(candidates, limit) {
+  const eventCounts = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  const singleSourceCounts = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  const diversified = [];
+  for (const candidate of candidates) {
+    const eventKey = candidate.eventSlug || candidate.slug;
+    const eventCount = eventCounts.get(eventKey) ?? 0;
+    if (eventCount >= ENSEMBLE_MAX_CANDIDATES_PER_EVENT) continue;
+    const singleSource = candidate.sourceProfiles.length === 1 ? candidate.sourceProfiles[0] : null;
+    if (singleSource !== null) {
+      const sourceCount = singleSourceCounts.get(singleSource) ?? 0;
+      if (sourceCount >= ENSEMBLE_MAX_SINGLE_SOURCE_CANDIDATES) continue;
+      singleSourceCounts.set(singleSource, sourceCount + 1);
+    }
+    eventCounts.set(eventKey, eventCount + 1);
+    diversified.push(candidate);
+    if (diversified.length >= limit) break;
+  }
+  return diversified;
 }
 function buildFeedEnsemble(sourceResults, limit, outputPath = "candidates.json", generatedAt = (/* @__PURE__ */ new Date()).toISOString()) {
   const bySlug = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
@@ -1083,15 +1136,16 @@ function buildFeedEnsemble(sourceResults, limit, outputPath = "candidates.json",
     ...candidate,
     sourceProfiles: [...new Set(candidate.sourceProfiles)],
     ensembleScore: scoreCandidate(candidate, new Set(candidate.sourceProfiles).size)
-  })).sort((a, b) => b.ensembleScore - a.ensembleScore || b.score - a.score).slice(0, limit);
+  })).sort((a, b) => b.ensembleScore - a.ensembleScore || b.score - a.score);
+  const diversifiedCandidates = diversifyCandidates(candidates, limit);
   return {
     generatedAt,
     outputPath,
     totalSources: sourceResults.length,
     totalRawMarkets,
     totalCandidates: bySlug.size,
-    marketsReturned: candidates.length,
-    candidates
+    marketsReturned: diversifiedCandidates.length,
+    candidates: diversifiedCandidates
   };
 }
 function parseLimit(value, fallback) {
@@ -1193,7 +1247,6 @@ function registerFeedCommand(program2) {
 
 // src/commands/lp.ts
 import { InvalidArgumentError as InvalidArgumentError2 } from "commander";
-import { writeFile as writeFile2 } from "fs/promises";
 
 // src/allocator-display.ts
 import chalk5 from "chalk";
@@ -1369,118 +1422,6 @@ async function readStdin() {
   return Buffer.concat(chunks).toString("utf8");
 }
 
-// src/lp-display.ts
-import chalk6 from "chalk";
-function num3(value, fallback = 0) {
-  const n = Number(value);
-  return Number.isFinite(n) ? n : fallback;
-}
-function signedCurrency2(value) {
-  const formatted = currency(Math.abs(value));
-  if (value > 0) return chalk6.green(`+${formatted}`);
-  if (value < 0) return chalk6.yellow(`-${formatted}`);
-  return chalk6.dim("$0.00");
-}
-function actionSummary(actions) {
-  if (!actions) return "none";
-  return Object.entries(actions).filter(([, count]) => num3(count) > 0).map(([action, count]) => `${action}:${num3(count)}`).join(" ");
-}
-function displayLpScanResult(result, globalOpts) {
-  if (globalOpts.json) {
-    json(result);
-    return;
-  }
-  heading("LP Scan");
-  process.stdout.write(
-    chalk6.dim(
-      `  scan ${result.scanId} \xB7 strategy ${result.strategyId} \xB7 ${result.evidenceSaved} evidence rows saved
-`
-    )
-  );
-  process.stdout.write(
-    chalk6.dim(
-      `  ${result.totalScanned.toLocaleString()} scanned \xB7 ${result.totalAfterFilter.toLocaleString()} after filters \xB7 profile ${result.profile}
-
-`
-    )
-  );
-  if (result.markets.length === 0) {
-    warn("No markets matched the LP scan.");
-    return;
-  }
-  table(
-    result.markets.slice(0, 10).map((market) => [
-      String(market.rank),
-      truncate(market.question, 46),
-      String(Math.round(num3(market.score))),
-      compactCurrency(num3(market.liquidity)),
-      compactCurrency(num3(market.rewardsDailyRate)) + "/day",
-      `${num3(market.lpExpectedReturnDailyPct).toFixed(3)}%`
-    ]),
-    ["#", "Market", "Score", "Liq", "Rewards", "Exp/day"]
-  );
-}
-function displayLpRecommendResult(result, globalOpts) {
-  if (globalOpts.json) {
-    json(result);
-    return;
-  }
-  heading("LP Recommendations");
-  process.stdout.write(
-    chalk6.dim(
-      `  cycle ${result.cycleId} \xB7 strategy ${result.strategyId} \xB7 ${result.candidatesSubmitted} markets \xB7 ${result.allocationsSubmitted} current allocations
-`
-    )
-  );
-  process.stdout.write(
-    chalk6.dim(
-      `  PnL context ${result.pnlContextCount} rows${result.pnlSynced ? " \xB7 synced" : ""} \xB7 approvals required
-
-`
-    )
-  );
-  displayAllocatorCycleResult(result.result ?? { decisions: result.decisions }, globalOpts);
-}
-function displayLpEvaluateResult(result, globalOpts) {
-  if (globalOpts.json) {
-    json(result);
-    return;
-  }
-  heading("LP Evaluation");
-  process.stdout.write(
-    chalk6.dim(
-      `  strategy ${result.strategyId} \xB7 ${result.summary.snapshots} snapshots \xB7 ${result.summary.markets} markets`
-    )
-  );
-  if (result.pnlSynced) process.stdout.write(chalk6.dim(" \xB7 synced"));
-  process.stdout.write("\n\n");
-  if (result.syncError) warn(result.syncError);
-  table(
-    [
-      ["Realized PnL", signedCurrency2(result.summary.realizedPnl)],
-      ["Unrealized PnL", signedCurrency2(result.summary.unrealizedPnl)],
-      ["Net PnL", signedCurrency2(result.summary.netPnl)],
-      ["Capital locked", currency(result.summary.capitalLocked)],
-      ["Current value", currency(result.summary.currentValue)],
-      ["Outcomes", actionSummary(result.summary.outcomes)]
-    ]
-  );
-  if (result.lessons.length === 0) {
-    warn("No PnL lessons available yet.");
-    return;
-  }
-  process.stdout.write("\n");
-  table(
-    result.lessons.slice(0, 8).map((lesson) => [
-      truncate(String(lesson.market_slug ?? "portfolio"), 26),
-      String(lesson.outcome ?? "flat"),
-      signedCurrency2(num3(lesson.net_pnl)),
-      truncate(String(lesson.lesson ?? "no lesson"), 64)
-    ]),
-    ["Market", "Outcome", "Net", "Lesson"]
-  );
-}
-
 // src/commands/lp.ts
 function requireAuth5(client) {
   if (!client.isAuthenticated) {
@@ -1532,59 +1473,12 @@ function validateAllocatorPercentageSizing(opts) {
     process.exit(1);
   }
 }
-function compact(payload) {
-  return Object.fromEntries(
-    Object.entries(payload).filter(([, value]) => value !== void 0 && value !== "")
-  );
-}
-async function writeArtifact(path, data, jsonMode) {
-  if (!path) return;
-  await writeFile2(path, JSON.stringify(data, null, 2) + "\n", "utf8");
-  if (!jsonMode) {
-    process.stderr.write(dim(`  Saved artifact to ${path}
-`));
-  }
-}
-function buildLpScanPayload(topic, opts) {
-  return compact({
-    topic: topic?.trim() || void 0,
-    strategyId: opts.strategyId,
-    profile: opts.profile,
-    sortBy: opts.sortBy,
-    tag: opts.tag,
-    minVolume: opts.minVolume,
-    minLiquidity: opts.minLiquidity,
-    maxLiquidity: opts.maxLiquidity,
-    minRewardsDailyRate: opts.minRewardsDailyRate,
-    minDaysToEnd: opts.minDaysToEnd,
-    maxDaysToEnd: opts.maxDaysToEnd,
-    maxMarketAgeHours: opts.maxMarketAgeHours,
-    liquidProfile: opts.liquidProfile,
-    limit: opts.limit
-  });
-}
-function buildLpRecommendPayload(opts) {
-  return compact({
-    strategyId: opts.strategyId,
-    scanId: opts.scanId,
-    limit: opts.limit,
-    syncPnl: opts.syncPnl
-  });
-}
-function buildLpEvaluatePayload(opts) {
-  return compact({
-    strategyId: opts.strategyId,
-    walletAddress: opts.walletAddress,
-    syncPnl: opts.syncPnl,
-    limit: opts.limit
-  });
-}
 async function runAllocatorCycle(client, payload) {
   return client.post("/api/lp/allocator", payload);
 }
 function registerLpCommands(program2) {
-  const lp = program2.command("lp").description("Run persisted liquidity-provider scan, recommendation, and evaluation workflows");
-  lp.command("allocator").description("Run the allocator agent on an explicit market list").requiredOption("--markets <file>", "Candidate market JSON array or { markets }; use '-' to read stdin").option("--allocations <file>", "Existing allocations JSON array or { allocations }; use '-' to read stdin").option("--pnl <file>", "Per-market PnL context JSON array or { pnl_context } (hl-trader pnl --json output); use '-' to read stdin").option("--total-holdings <usd>", "Total holdings / portfolio value used for percentage sizing", parsePositiveNumber).option("--capital-limit-pct <pct>", "Portfolio-level allocation cap as a percent of total holdings", parsePositiveNumber).option("--per-market-limit-pct <pct>", "Per-market target cap as a percent of total holdings", parsePositiveNumber).option("--capital-limit <usd>", "Portfolio capital limit for this allocator request", parseNonNegative, 500).option("--per-market-limit <usd>", "Per-market target cap", parseNonNegative, 100).option("--min-expected-return-daily-pct <pct>", "Minimum expected daily return percent", parseNonNegative, 0.02).option("--max-inventory-imbalance <ratio>", "Maximum inventory imbalance", parseNonNegative, 0.25).option("--volatility-fill-spike-threshold <ratio>", "Fill-rate imbalance that switches quotes to defensive mode", parseNonNegative, 0.35).option("--event-no-quote-minutes-before <n>", "No-quote window before scheduled events", parseNonNegative, 60).option("--event-no-quote-minutes-after <n>", "No-quote window after scheduled events", parseNonNegative, 30).option("--allocator-min-liquidity <usd>", "Allocator safety gate: minimum market liquidity", parseNonNegative, 500).option("--max-spread <ratio>", "Allocator safety gate: maximum spread", parseNonNegative, 0.12).option("--allocator-min-days-to-end <n>", "Allocator safety gate: minimum days to resolution", parseNonNegative, 3).option("--max-markets <n>", "Maximum markets allocator may target", parsePositiveInt, 5).option("--paused", "Send strategy status paused instead of dry_run").action(async (opts) => {
+  const lp = program2.command("lp").description("Generate dry-run liquidity-provider allocation plans");
+  lp.command("allocator").description("Run the allocator agent on an explicit market list").requiredOption("--markets <file>", "Candidate market JSON array or { markets }; use '-' to read stdin").option("--allocations <file>", "Existing allocations JSON array or { allocations }; use '-' to read stdin").option("--pnl <file>", "Per-market PnL context JSON array or { pnl_context } (external wallet/inventory export); use '-' to read stdin").option("--total-holdings <usd>", "Total holdings / portfolio value used for percentage sizing", parsePositiveNumber).option("--capital-limit-pct <pct>", "Portfolio-level allocation cap as a percent of total holdings", parsePositiveNumber).option("--per-market-limit-pct <pct>", "Per-market target cap as a percent of total holdings", parsePositiveNumber).option("--capital-limit <usd>", "Portfolio capital limit for this allocator request", parseNonNegative, 500).option("--per-market-limit <usd>", "Per-market target cap", parseNonNegative, 100).option("--min-expected-return-daily-pct <pct>", "Minimum expected daily return percent", parseNonNegative, 0.02).option("--max-inventory-imbalance <ratio>", "Maximum inventory imbalance", parseNonNegative, 0.25).option("--volatility-fill-spike-threshold <ratio>", "Fill-rate imbalance that switches quotes to defensive mode", parseNonNegative, 0.35).option("--event-no-quote-minutes-before <n>", "No-quote window before scheduled events", parseNonNegative, 60).option("--event-no-quote-minutes-after <n>", "No-quote window after scheduled events", parseNonNegative, 30).option("--allocator-min-liquidity <usd>", "Allocator safety gate: minimum market liquidity", parseNonNegative, 500).option("--max-spread <ratio>", "Allocator safety gate: maximum spread", parseNonNegative, 0.12).option("--allocator-min-days-to-end <n>", "Allocator safety gate: minimum days to resolution", parseNonNegative, 3).option("--max-markets <n>", "Maximum markets allocator may target", parsePositiveInt, 5).option("--paused", "Send strategy status paused instead of dry_run").action(async (opts) => {
     const globalOpts = program2.opts();
     const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
     requireAuth5(client);
@@ -1618,310 +1512,14 @@ function registerLpCommands(program2) {
       displayAllocatorCycleResult(response.result ?? {}, globalOpts);
     }
   });
-  lp.command("scan").description("Scan LP candidates and persist them as evidence").argument("[topic]", "Human label for this scan, e.g. liquidity opportunities").option("--profile <name>", "lp-opportunity | liquidity-provider | liquid-new-or-long", "liquidity-provider").option("--sort-by <key>", "score | volume | liquidity | movement | spread | rewards | rewardYield | lpExpectedReturn | horizon").option("--tag <slug>", "Polymarket category tag, e.g. crypto, politics").option("--min-volume <usd>", "Minimum 24h volume (USD)", parseNonNegative).option("--min-liquidity <usd>", "Minimum displayed liquidity (USD)", parseNonNegative).option("--max-liquidity <usd>", "Maximum displayed liquidity (USD)", parseNonNegative).option("--min-rewards-daily-rate <usd>", "Minimum LP rewards USD/day", parseNonNegative).option("--min-days-to-end <n>", "Minimum days until resolution", parseNonNegative).option("--max-days-to-end <n>", "Maximum days until resolution", parseNonNegative).option("--max-market-age-hours <n>", "With liquid-new-or-long: max age for the new branch", parseNonNegative).option("--liquid-profile <mode>", "new-or-long").option("--limit <n>", "Max markets to scan/save (1-100, default 15)", parsePositiveInt, 15).option("--strategy-id <uuid>", "LP strategy id").option("--output <file>", "Write the evidence JSON response to a local file").action(async (topic, opts) => {
-    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
-    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth5(client);
-    const result = await client.post(
-      "/api/lp/scan",
-      buildLpScanPayload(topic, opts)
-    );
-    await writeArtifact(opts.output, result, Boolean(globalOpts.json));
-    displayLpScanResult(result, globalOpts);
-  });
-  lp.command("recommend").description("Run allocator recommendations from saved LP evidence and current allocations").option("--strategy-id <uuid>", "LP strategy id").option("--scan-id <uuid>", "Use candidates from a specific saved scan").option("--limit <n>", "Max saved candidates to submit (1-25, default 15)", parsePositiveInt, 15).option("--sync-pnl", "Refresh wallet PnL before recommending").option("--output <file>", "Write the recommendation JSON response to a local file").action(async (opts) => {
-    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
-    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth5(client);
-    const result = await client.post(
-      "/api/lp/recommend",
-      buildLpRecommendPayload(opts)
-    );
-    await writeArtifact(opts.output, result, Boolean(globalOpts.json));
-    displayLpRecommendResult(result, globalOpts);
-  });
-  lp.command("evaluate").description("Evaluate LP performance and return compact lessons").option("--strategy-id <uuid>", "LP strategy id").option("--wallet-address <address>", "Wallet address to sync PnL from").option("--no-sync-pnl", "Use existing PnL snapshots without refreshing").option("--limit <n>", "Max PnL snapshots to evaluate (1-100, default 50)", parsePositiveInt, 50).option("--output <file>", "Write the evaluation JSON response to a local file").action(async (opts) => {
-    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
-    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth5(client);
-    const result = await client.post(
-      "/api/lp/evaluate",
-      buildLpEvaluatePayload(opts)
-    );
-    await writeArtifact(opts.output, result, Boolean(globalOpts.json));
-    displayLpEvaluateResult(result, globalOpts);
-  });
-}
-
-// src/commands/wallet.ts
-import { InvalidArgumentError as InvalidArgumentError3 } from "commander";
-import { spawn } from "child_process";
-var NETWORK_NAME = "Polygon";
-var POLYGON_NATIVE_USDC = "0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359";
-var SUPPORTED_ASSETS = ["pUsd", "usdcE", "matic"];
-var POLYGON_NATIVE_ASSET_LABEL = "POL";
-var TERMINAL_WITHDRAWAL_STATUSES = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set(["succeeded", "failed", "cancelled", "expired"]);
-function requireAuth6(client) {
-  if (!client.isAuthenticated) {
-    error("Not authenticated. Run `hl auth login` first.");
-    process.exit(1);
-  }
-}
-function parsePositiveNumber2(value) {
-  const n = Number(value);
-  if (!Number.isFinite(n) || n <= 0) {
-    throw new InvalidArgumentError3("Expected a positive number");
-  }
-  return n;
-}
-function parseWalletAddress(value) {
-  const trimmed = value.trim();
-  if (!/^0x[a-fA-F0-9]{40}$/.test(trimmed)) {
-    throw new InvalidArgumentError3("Expected a valid EVM wallet address");
-  }
-  return trimmed;
-}
-function normalizeWalletAsset(value) {
-  if (!value) return void 0;
-  const normalized = value.trim().toLowerCase().replace(/[._\s-]/g, "");
-  if (["pusd", "polymarketusd"].includes(normalized)) return "pUsd";
-  if (["usdce", "usdcebridged", "bridgedusdc", "usdc"].includes(normalized)) return "usdcE";
-  if (["matic", "pol"].includes(normalized)) return "matic";
-  throw new InvalidArgumentError3("Unknown wallet asset. Use pUSD, USDC.e, or POL.");
-}
-function assetByKey(balances, key) {
-  return balances.assets[key];
-}
-function tokenAddress(asset) {
-  return asset.address ?? "native token";
-}
-function displayAmount(asset) {
-  if (!asset.ok) {
-    return `unavailable${asset.error ? ` (${asset.error})` : ""}`;
-  }
-  const numeric = Number(asset.balance);
-  if (asset.address === null && asset.decimals === 18) {
-    return Number.isFinite(numeric) ? numeric.toLocaleString("en-US", { maximumFractionDigits: 6 }) : asset.balance;
-  }
-  return Number.isFinite(numeric) ? currency(numeric) : asset.balance;
-}
-function displayAssetSymbol(asset) {
-  return asset.address === null && asset.decimals === 18 ? POLYGON_NATIVE_ASSET_LABEL : asset.symbol;
-}
-function buildDepositInstructions(balances, assetKey) {
-  const assets = assetKey ? [assetByKey(balances, assetKey)] : SUPPORTED_ASSETS.map((key) => assetByKey(balances, key));
-  return {
-    action: "deposit",
-    publicDepositAddress: balances.walletAddress,
-    walletAddress: balances.walletAddress,
-    chainId: balances.chainId,
-    network: NETWORK_NAME,
-    asset: assetKey ? assetByKey(balances, assetKey) : null,
-    assets,
-    warning: "Send only Polygon assets to this address. Hedge Layer cannot reverse external transfers."
-  };
-}
-function buildWithdrawRequestPayload(opts) {
-  const assetKey = normalizeWalletAsset(opts.asset) ?? "pUsd";
-  if (assetKey !== "pUsd") {
-    throw new InvalidArgumentError3("Bridge withdrawals currently send pUSD. Use --asset pUSD.");
-  }
-  return {
-    amount: opts.amount,
-    recipientAddress: opts.to,
-    toChainId: opts.toChainId ?? "137",
-    toTokenAddress: opts.toTokenAddress ?? POLYGON_NATIVE_USDC
-  };
-}
-function displayWalletStatus(status) {
-  const ownerWallet = status.ownerWallet ?? status.wallet;
-  const depositWallet = status.depositWallet ?? status.tradingWallet ?? null;
-  heading("Wallet");
-  table([
-    ["Owner linked", status.linked ? "yes" : "no"],
-    ["Provider", status.provider],
-    ["Owner wallet", ownerWallet?.wallet_address ?? "(none)"],
-    ["Owner chain", ownerWallet ? `${NETWORK_NAME} (${ownerWallet.chain_id})` : "(none)"],
-    ["Owner linked at", ownerWallet?.linked_at ? new Date(ownerWallet.linked_at).toLocaleString() : "(none)"],
-    ["Deposit wallet", depositWallet?.wallet_address ?? "(none)"],
-    ["Deposit deployed", status.depositWalletDeployed ? "yes" : "no"],
-    ["Deposit approved", status.depositWalletApproved ? "yes" : "no"],
-    ["Deposit ready", status.depositWalletReady ? "yes" : "no"],
-    ["Relayer configured", status.relayerConfigured ? "yes" : "no"]
-  ]);
-}
-function displayWalletBalances(balances) {
-  heading("Wallet Funds");
-  table([
-    ["Wallet", balances.walletAddress],
-    ["Chain", `${NETWORK_NAME} (${balances.chainId})`],
-    ["Available pUSD", displayAmount(balances.available)],
-    ["USDC.e", displayAmount(balances.assets.usdcE)],
-    [displayAssetSymbol(balances.assets.matic), displayAmount(balances.assets.matic)],
-    ["Updated", new Date(balances.updatedAt).toLocaleString()]
-  ]);
-}
-function displayDepositInstructions(instructions) {
-  heading("Deposit");
-  table([
-    ["Public deposit address", instructions.publicDepositAddress],
-    ["Network", `${instructions.network} (${instructions.chainId})`]
-  ]);
-  process.stdout.write("\n");
-  table(
-    instructions.assets.map((asset) => [
-      displayAssetSymbol(asset),
-      tokenAddress(asset),
-      displayAmount(asset)
-    ]),
-    ["Asset", "Token contract", "Current balance"]
-  );
-  process.stdout.write("\n");
-  warn(instructions.warning);
-}
-function displayBridgeDeposit(result) {
-  const bridgeAddresses = result.bridge?.address ?? {};
-  const rows = Object.entries(bridgeAddresses).filter(([, value]) => typeof value === "string" && value.length > 0).map(([network, value]) => [network.toUpperCase(), value]);
-  if (rows.length === 0) return;
-  process.stdout.write("\n");
-  table(rows, ["Bridge network", "Bridge deposit address"]);
-  if (result.bridge?.note) {
-    process.stdout.write("\n" + dim(`  ${result.bridge.note}
-`));
-  }
-  for (const warning of result.bridge?.warnings ?? []) {
-    if (warning.message) warn(warning.message);
-  }
-}
-function displayWithdrawIntent(intent) {
-  heading("Withdraw");
-  table([
-    ["Intent", intent.id],
-    ["Status", intent.status],
-    ["Wallet", intent.walletAddress],
-    ["Amount", `${intent.amount} pUSD`],
-    ["Recipient", intent.recipientAddress],
-    ["Destination", `chain ${intent.toChainId} \xB7 ${intent.toTokenAddress}`],
-    ["Bridge address", intent.bridgeAddresses.evm ?? "(none)"],
-    ["Signing URL", intent.signingUrl]
-  ]);
-  const quote = intent.quote ?? {};
-  if (quote.estOutputUsd !== void 0 || quote.estCheckoutTimeMs !== void 0) {
-    process.stdout.write("\n");
-    table([
-      ["Estimated output", quote.estOutputUsd !== void 0 ? currency(Number(quote.estOutputUsd)) : "-"],
-      ["Estimated checkout", quote.estCheckoutTimeMs !== void 0 ? `${Math.round(Number(quote.estCheckoutTimeMs) / 1e3)}s` : "-"]
-    ]);
-  }
-}
-function openBrowser(url) {
-  const command = process.platform === "darwin" ? "open" : process.platform === "win32" ? "cmd" : "xdg-open";
-  const args = process.platform === "win32" ? ["/c", "start", "", url] : [url];
-  const child = spawn(command, args, { detached: true, stdio: "ignore" });
-  child.unref();
-}
-function sleep(ms) {
-  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
-}
-async function pollWithdrawalIntent(client, id, opts) {
-  const started = Date.now();
-  let lastStatus = "";
-  while (Date.now() - started <= opts.timeoutSeconds * 1e3) {
-    const result = await client.get(
-      `/api/wallet/withdraw/intents/${encodeURIComponent(id)}`
-    );
-    const intent = result.intent;
-    if (!opts.jsonMode && intent.status !== lastStatus) {
-      process.stderr.write(dim(`  Withdrawal status: ${intent.status}
-`));
-      lastStatus = intent.status;
-    }
-    if (TERMINAL_WITHDRAWAL_STATUSES.has(intent.status)) return intent;
-    await sleep(opts.intervalSeconds * 1e3);
-  }
-  throw new Error(`Timed out waiting for withdrawal intent ${id}`);
-}
-function registerWalletCommands(program2) {
-  const wallet = program2.command("wallet").description("Inspect linked wallet funds and funding instructions");
-  wallet.command("status").description("Show linked owner and Polymarket deposit wallet status").action(async () => {
-    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
-    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth6(client);
-    const status = await client.get("/api/wallet/status");
-    if (globalOpts.json) {
-      json(status);
-      return;
-    }
-    displayWalletStatus(status);
-  });
-  wallet.command("balances").alias("funds").description("Show available wallet funds").action(async () => {
-    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
-    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth6(client);
-    const balances = await client.get("/api/wallet/balances");
-    if (globalOpts.json) {
-      json(balances);
-      return;
-    }
-    displayWalletBalances(balances);
-  });
-  wallet.command("deposit").description("Show deposit address and supported Polygon assets").option("--asset <asset>", "pUSD | USDC.e | POL").option("--bridge", "Also request Polymarket Bridge deposit addresses").action(async (opts) => {
-    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
-    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth6(client);
-    const asset = normalizeWalletAsset(opts.asset);
-    const result = await client.post("/api/wallet/deposit", {
-      bridge: Boolean(opts.bridge)
-    });
-    const balances = {
-      walletAddress: result.direct.walletAddress,
-      chainId: result.direct.chainId,
-      updatedAt: (/* @__PURE__ */ new Date()).toISOString(),
-      available: result.direct.assets.pUsd,
-      assets: result.direct.assets
-    };
-    const instructions = buildDepositInstructions(balances, asset);
-    if (globalOpts.json) {
-      json({ ...result, instructions });
-      return;
-    }
-    displayDepositInstructions(instructions);
-    displayBridgeDeposit(result);
-  });
-  wallet.command("withdraw").description("Create a browser-signed withdrawal intent and poll for completion").requiredOption("--to <address>", "Recipient EVM wallet address", parseWalletAddress).requiredOption("--amount <amount>", "Amount to withdraw", parsePositiveNumber2).option("--asset <asset>", "Source asset; currently only pUSD is supported", "pUSD").option("--to-chain-id <id>", "Destination chain id", "137").option("--to-token-address <address>", "Destination token address", parseWalletAddress, POLYGON_NATIVE_USDC).option("--no-open", "Do not open the browser signing URL").option("--no-wait", "Do not poll for completion after creating the intent").option("--poll-interval <seconds>", "Polling interval in seconds", parsePositiveNumber2, 5).option("--timeout <seconds>", "Maximum seconds to wait for completion", parsePositiveNumber2, 600).action(async (opts) => {
-    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
-    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth6(client);
-    const created = await client.post(
-      "/api/wallet/withdraw/intents",
-      buildWithdrawRequestPayload(opts)
-    );
-    let intent = created.intent;
-    if (opts.open !== false) {
-      openBrowser(intent.signingUrl);
-    }
-    if (opts.wait !== false) {
-      intent = await pollWithdrawalIntent(client, intent.id, {
-        timeoutSeconds: opts.timeout ?? 600,
-        intervalSeconds: opts.pollInterval ?? 5,
-        jsonMode: Boolean(globalOpts.json)
-      });
-    }
-    if (globalOpts.json) {
-      json(intent);
-      return;
-    } else {
-      displayWithdrawIntent(intent);
-    }
-  });
 }
 
 // src/commands/signal.ts
-import { InvalidArgumentError as InvalidArgumentError4 } from "commander";
+import { InvalidArgumentError as InvalidArgumentError3 } from "commander";
 import { readFile as readFile2 } from "fs/promises";
 
 // src/signal-display.ts
-import chalk7 from "chalk";
+import chalk6 from "chalk";
 function pctFromSignalValue(value) {
   if (value === null || value === void 0 || Number.isNaN(value)) return null;
   return Math.abs(value) <= 1 ? value * 100 : value;
@@ -1934,14 +1532,14 @@ function formatGap(value) {
   if (value === null || value === void 0 || Number.isNaN(value)) return "n/a";
   const points = Math.abs(value) <= 1 ? value * 100 : value;
   const formatted = `${points >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${points.toFixed(1)}pp`;
-  if (points > 0) return chalk7.green(formatted);
-  if (points < 0) return chalk7.red(formatted);
-  return chalk7.dim(formatted);
+  if (points > 0) return chalk6.green(formatted);
+  if (points < 0) return chalk6.red(formatted);
+  return chalk6.dim(formatted);
 }
 function formatStrength(value) {
-  if (value === "strong") return chalk7.green("strong");
-  if (value === "weak") return chalk7.yellow("weak");
-  return value ? chalk7.dim(value) : "n/a";
+  if (value === "strong") return chalk6.green("strong");
+  if (value === "weak") return chalk6.yellow("weak");
+  return value ? chalk6.dim(value) : "n/a";
 }
 function analysisItems(result) {
   if (!result) return [];
@@ -1988,27 +1586,27 @@ function displaySignalAnalysis(response, globalOpts) {
   for (const item of items.slice(0, 3)) {
     const analysis = item.analysis;
     if (!analysis) continue;
-    process.stdout.write("\n  " + chalk7.bold(truncate(titleFor(analysis), 76)) + "\n");
+    process.stdout.write("\n  " + chalk6.bold(truncate(titleFor(analysis), 76)) + "\n");
     if (analysis.market_link) {
-      process.stdout.write("  " + chalk7.dim("Polymarket: ") + analysis.market_link + "\n");
+      process.stdout.write("  " + chalk6.dim("Polymarket: ") + analysis.market_link + "\n");
     }
     if (analysis.key_factors && analysis.key_factors.length > 0) {
-      process.stdout.write("  " + chalk7.dim("Key factors: ") + analysis.key_factors.slice(0, 4).join("; ") + "\n");
+      process.stdout.write("  " + chalk6.dim("Key factors: ") + analysis.key_factors.slice(0, 4).join("; ") + "\n");
     }
     if (analysis.research_findings) {
       process.stdout.write(
-        "  " + chalk7.dim("Research: ") + truncate(analysis.research_findings, 180) + "\n"
+        "  " + chalk6.dim("Research: ") + truncate(analysis.research_findings, 180) + "\n"
       );
     }
   }
   if (items.length > 3) {
-    process.stdout.write(chalk7.dim(`
+    process.stdout.write(chalk6.dim(`
   ... and ${items.length - 3} more
 `));
   }
   if (result?.strong_signal_count !== void 0) {
     process.stdout.write(
-      chalk7.dim(`
+      chalk6.dim(`
   Strong signals: ${result.strong_signal_count}
 `)
     );
@@ -2016,7 +1614,7 @@ function displaySignalAnalysis(response, globalOpts) {
 }
 
 // src/commands/signal.ts
-function requireAuth7(client) {
+function requireAuth6(client) {
   if (!client.isAuthenticated) {
     error("Not authenticated. Run `hl auth login` first.");
     process.exit(1);
@@ -2028,7 +1626,7 @@ function collect(value, previous = []) {
 function parseProbability(value) {
   const n = Number(value);
   if (!Number.isFinite(n) || n < 0 || n > 100) {
-    throw new InvalidArgumentError4("Expected a probability between 0 and 100");
+    throw new InvalidArgumentError3("Expected a probability between 0 and 100");
   }
   return n;
 }
@@ -2100,7 +1698,7 @@ function registerSignalCommands(program2) {
   signal.command("analyze").description("Estimate true YES probability and compare it with market pricing").argument("[url]", "Polymarket market/event URL to analyze").option("--url <url>", "Additional Polymarket URL; repeat for multiple markets", collect, []).option("--market <file>", "Inline market JSON object/array; use '-' to read stdin").option("--context <text>", "Prior search notes or analysis context for the agent").option("--question <text>", "Inline market question when not using a URL").option("--description <text>", "Inline market description or resolution criteria").option("--yes-prob <prob>", "Current YES probability or price, e.g. 0.52 or 52", parseProbability).option("--no-prob <prob>", "Current NO probability or price, e.g. 0.48 or 48", parseProbability).option("--slug <slug>", "Inline market slug").option("--link <url>", "Inline market link").action(async (url, o) => {
     const globalOpts = program2.opts();
     const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth7(client);
+    requireAuth6(client);
     let payload;
     try {
       payload = await buildSignalPayload(url, o);
@@ -2116,17 +1714,196 @@ function registerSignalCommands(program2) {
   });
 }
 
+// src/commands/quote.ts
+import { InvalidArgumentError as InvalidArgumentError4 } from "commander";
+function requireAuth7(client) {
+  if (!client.isAuthenticated) {
+    error("Not authenticated. Run `hl auth login` first.");
+    process.exit(1);
+  }
+}
+function parsePositiveNumber2(value) {
+  const parsed = Number(value);
+  if (!Number.isFinite(parsed) || parsed <= 0) {
+    throw new InvalidArgumentError4("Expected a positive number");
+  }
+  return parsed;
+}
+function parseQuoteAction(value) {
+  const normalized = value.trim().toUpperCase();
+  if (normalized !== "BUY" && normalized !== "SELL") {
+    throw new InvalidArgumentError4("Expected buy or sell");
+  }
+  return normalized;
+}
+function parseQuoteOutcome(value) {
+  const normalized = value.trim().toUpperCase();
+  if (normalized !== "YES" && normalized !== "NO") {
+    throw new InvalidArgumentError4("Expected yes or no");
+  }
+  return normalized;
+}
+function parseQuoteRoute(value) {
+  const normalized = value.trim().toLowerCase();
+  if (normalized !== "auto" && normalized !== "aggressive" && normalized !== "passive") {
+    throw new InvalidArgumentError4("Expected auto, aggressive, or passive");
+  }
+  return normalized;
+}
+function buildQuotePayload(instrument, opts) {
+  const normalizedInstrument = instrument.trim();
+  if (!normalizedInstrument) {
+    throw new Error("Provide a Polymarket slug or URL.");
+  }
+  const hasCash = opts.cash !== void 0;
+  const hasShares = opts.shares !== void 0;
+  if (hasCash === hasShares) {
+    throw new Error("Provide exactly one of --cash or --shares.");
+  }
+  if (opts.action === "SELL" && hasCash) {
+    throw new Error("SELL quotes require --shares; --cash is BUY-only.");
+  }
+  return {
+    instrument: normalizedInstrument,
+    action: opts.action,
+    outcome: opts.outcome,
+    size: hasCash ? { type: "cash", amount_usd: opts.cash } : { type: "shares", shares: opts.shares },
+    ...opts.signalId && { signal_forecast_id: opts.signalId },
+    ...opts.capital !== void 0 && { portfolio_capital_usd: opts.capital },
+    route: opts.route,
+    persist: Boolean(opts.save)
+  };
+}
+function formatNumber(value, digits = 2) {
+  return typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value) ? value.toLocaleString("en-US", { maximumFractionDigits: digits }) : "n/a";
+}
+function formatUsd(value) {
+  return typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value) ? currency(value) : "n/a";
+}
+function formatPrice(value) {
+  return typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value) ? `$${value.toFixed(4)}` : "n/a";
+}
+function formatPercent(value) {
+  return typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value) ? percent(value) : "n/a";
+}
+function displayQuotePreview(preview, globalOpts) {
+  if (globalOpts.json) {
+    json(preview);
+    return;
+  }
+  if (preview.error) {
+    error(preview.error);
+    return;
+  }
+  const request = preview.request;
+  const instrument = preview.instrument;
+  const market = preview.market ?? {};
+  const fill = preview.fill ?? {};
+  const economics = preview.economics ?? {};
+  const signal = preview.signal ?? {};
+  const sizing = preview.sizing_suggestion ?? {};
+  heading(`Quote Preview \u2014 ${preview.status ?? "UNAVAILABLE"}`);
+  table([
+    ["Market", instrument.question ?? instrument.slug ?? "n/a"],
+    ["Venue", preview.venue ?? "polymarket"],
+    ["Action", `${request.action ?? "n/a"} ${request.outcome ?? "n/a"}`],
+    ["Route", `${request.route_selected ?? "n/a"} (requested ${request.route_requested ?? "auto"})`],
+    ["Observed", preview.observed_at ? new Date(preview.observed_at).toLocaleString() : "n/a"],
+    ["Expires", preview.expires_at ? new Date(preview.expires_at).toLocaleString() : "n/a"]
+  ]);
+  process.stdout.write("\n");
+  table([
+    ["Best bid", formatPrice(market.best_bid)],
+    ["Best ask", formatPrice(market.best_ask)],
+    ["Spread", formatPrice(market.spread)],
+    ["Bid depth", `${formatNumber(market.bid_depth_shares, 4)} shares`],
+    ["Ask depth", `${formatNumber(market.ask_depth_shares, 4)} shares`],
+    ["Requested cash", formatUsd(fill.requested_cash_usd)],
+    ["Requested shares", formatNumber(fill.requested_shares, 4)],
+    ["Fillable shares", formatNumber(fill.fillable_shares, 4)],
+    ["Safety-capped shares", formatNumber(fill.safety_capped_shares, 4)],
+    ["Fill ratio", formatPercent(fill.fill_ratio)],
+    ["Average price", formatPrice(fill.average_price)],
+    ["Worst price", formatPrice(fill.worst_price)],
+    ["Passive limit", formatPrice(fill.passive_limit_price)],
+    ["Slippage", typeof fill.slippage_bps === "number" ? `${formatNumber(fill.slippage_bps)} bps` : "n/a"]
+  ], ["Quote", "Value"]);
+  process.stdout.write("\n");
+  table([
+    ["Gross notional", formatUsd(economics.gross_notional_usd)],
+    ["Venue fee", formatUsd(economics.venue_fee_usd)],
+    ["Fee source", economics.fee_source ?? "unavailable"],
+    [request.action === "SELL" ? "Net proceeds" : "All-in cost", formatUsd(
+      request.action === "SELL" ? economics.net_proceeds_usd : economics.all_in_cost_usd
+    )],
+    ["Max loss", formatUsd(economics.max_loss_usd)],
+    ["Max payout", formatUsd(economics.max_payout_usd)],
+    ["Profit at payout", formatUsd(economics.max_profit_usd)],
+    ["Foregone payout", request.action === "SELL" ? formatUsd(economics.foregone_payout_usd) : "n/a"],
+    ["Break-even probability", formatPercent(economics.break_even_probability)]
+  ], ["Economics", "Value"]);
+  if (preview.signal) {
+    process.stdout.write("\n");
+    table([
+      ["Forecast YES", formatPercent(signal.forecast_yes)],
+      ["Forecast interval", `${formatPercent(signal.lower_bound)} \u2013 ${formatPercent(signal.upper_bound)}`],
+      ["Midpoint edge", formatPercent(signal.midpoint_edge)],
+      ["Conservative edge", formatPercent(signal.conservative_edge)]
+    ], ["Signal", "Value"]);
+  }
+  if (preview.sizing_suggestion) {
+    process.stdout.write("\n");
+    table([
+      ["Suggested cash", formatUsd(sizing.suggested_max_spend_usd)],
+      ["Suggested shares", formatNumber(sizing.suggested_shares, 4)],
+      ["Capital fraction", formatPercent(sizing.allocation_fraction)]
+    ], ["Non-binding sizing", "Value"]);
+  }
+  if (preview.risks?.length) {
+    process.stdout.write("\n");
+    for (const risk of preview.risks) warn(risk);
+  }
+  if (preview.id) {
+    process.stdout.write("\n" + dim(`  Saved preview: ${preview.id}
+`));
+  }
+  process.stdout.write("\n");
+  warn("Preview only \u2014 no order was signed or submitted.");
+  const marketUrl = instrument.market_url;
+  if (marketUrl) process.stdout.write(dim(`  Market: ${marketUrl}
+`));
+}
+function registerQuoteCommand(program2) {
+  program2.command("quote").description("Preview the cost, liquidity, and risk of a Polymarket trade").argument("<slug-or-url>", "Polymarket market slug or URL").requiredOption("--action <action>", "buy | sell", parseQuoteAction).requiredOption("--outcome <outcome>", "yes | no", parseQuoteOutcome).option("--cash <usd>", "Maximum cash to spend (BUY only)", parsePositiveNumber2).option("--shares <shares>", "Number of outcome shares", parsePositiveNumber2).option("--signal-id <uuid>", "Saved Signal forecast to include in edge calculations").option("--capital <usd>", "Manual portfolio capital for non-binding BUY sizing", parsePositiveNumber2).option("--route <route>", "auto | aggressive | passive", parseQuoteRoute, "auto").option("--save", "Save a freshly generated preview to quote history").action(async (instrument, opts) => {
+    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
+    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
+    requireAuth7(client);
+    let payload;
+    try {
+      payload = buildQuotePayload(instrument, opts);
+    } catch (error2) {
+      error(error2 instanceof Error ? error2.message : String(error2));
+      process.exit(1);
+    }
+    if (!globalOpts.json) {
+      process.stderr.write(dim("  Refreshing public market data and order book...\n"));
+    }
+    const preview = await client.post("/api/quote", payload);
+    displayQuotePreview(preview, globalOpts);
+  });
+}
+
 // src/index.ts
 var program = new Command4();
-program.name("hl").description("Hedge Layer CLI \u2014 prediction market intelligence from the terminal").version("2.1.0").option("--json", "Output as JSON (machine-readable)").option("--api-url <url>", "Override API base URL").option("--token <token>", "Override stored API token").option("--verbose", "Show HTTP request details").option("--no-color", "Disable colored output");
+program.name("hl").description("Hedge Layer CLI \u2014 prediction market intelligence from the terminal").version("3.0.0").option("--json", "Output as JSON (machine-readable)").option("--api-url <url>", "Override API base URL").option("--token <token>", "Override stored API token").option("--verbose", "Show HTTP request details").option("--no-color", "Disable colored output");
 registerAuthCommands(program);
 registerBriefCommands(program);
 registerProfileCommand(program);
 registerResearchCommands(program);
 registerFeedCommand(program);
-registerWalletCommands(program);
 registerLpCommands(program);
 registerSignalCommands(program);
+registerQuoteCommand(program);
 program.hook("preAction", (_thisCommand, actionCommand) => {
   const opts = program.opts();
   if (opts.color === false) {