@hedge-layer/cli 1.7.0 → 2.0.0

package/dist/index.mjs

@@ -838,11 +838,12 @@ function registerResearchCommands(program2) {
     });
     table(rows, ["ID", "Status", "Brief", "Markets", "Created"]);
   });
-  research.command("show <id>").description("Show research session details").action(async (id) => {
+  research.command("show <id>").description("Show research session details (accepts the short ID shown by `hl research list`)").action(async (id) => {
     const globalOpts = program2.opts();
     const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
     requireAuth3(client);
-    const assessment = await client.get(`/api/assessments/${id}`);
+    const fullId = await resolveOrExit(client, id);
+    const assessment = await client.get(`/api/assessments/${fullId}`);
     if (globalOpts.json) {
       json(assessment);
       return;
@@ -857,14 +858,53 @@ function registerResearchCommands(program2) {
       displayMarketBrief(assessment.market_brief, globalOpts);
     }
   });
-  research.command("delete <id>").description("Delete a research session").action(async (id) => {
+  research.command("delete <id>").description("Delete a research session (accepts the short ID shown by `hl research list`)").action(async (id) => {
     const globalOpts = program2.opts();
     const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
     requireAuth3(client);
-    await client.delete(`/api/assessments/${id}`);
+    const fullId = await resolveOrExit(client, id);
+    await client.delete(`/api/assessments/${fullId}`);
     success("Research session deleted.");
   });
 }
+var FULL_UUID = /^[0-9a-f]{8}-[0-9a-f]{4}-[0-9a-f]{4}-[0-9a-f]{4}-[0-9a-f]{12}$/i;
+function matchAssessmentId(idOrPrefix, ids) {
+  const needle = idOrPrefix.trim().toLowerCase();
+  if (!needle) {
+    throw new Error("No research session ID provided.");
+  }
+  const exact = ids.find((id) => id.toLowerCase() === needle);
+  if (exact) return exact;
+  const matches = ids.filter((id) => id.toLowerCase().startsWith(needle));
+  if (matches.length === 1) return matches[0];
+  if (matches.length === 0) {
+    throw new Error(
+      `No research session found matching "${idOrPrefix}". Run \`hl research list\` to see available sessions.`
+    );
+  }
+  const shortIds = matches.map((id) => id.slice(0, 8)).join(", ");
+  throw new Error(
+    `"${idOrPrefix}" matches ${matches.length} research sessions (${shortIds}). Use a longer ID prefix to disambiguate.`
+  );
+}
+async function resolveAssessmentId(client, idOrPrefix) {
+  const trimmed = idOrPrefix.trim();
+  if (FULL_UUID.test(trimmed)) return trimmed;
+  const data = await client.get("/api/assessments", { list: "true" });
+  return matchAssessmentId(
+    trimmed,
+    data.assessments.map((a) => a.id)
+  );
+}
+async function resolveOrExit(client, idOrPrefix) {
+  try {
+    return await resolveAssessmentId(client, idOrPrefix);
+  } catch (e) {
+    if (e instanceof Error && e.message.includes("API error")) throw e;
+    error(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e));
+    process.exit(1);
+  }
+}
 function requireAuth3(client) {
   if (!client.isAuthenticated) {
     error("Not logged in. Run " + bold("hl auth login") + " first.");
@@ -1033,10 +1073,9 @@ function registerFeedCommand(program2) {
   });
 }
 
-// src/commands/allocator.ts
-import { InvalidArgumentError } from "commander";
-import { readFile } from "fs/promises";
-import chalk6 from "chalk";
+// src/commands/lp.ts
+import { InvalidArgumentError as InvalidArgumentError2 } from "commander";
+import { writeFile } from "fs/promises";
 
 // src/allocator-display.ts
 import chalk5 from "chalk";
@@ -1060,38 +1099,6 @@ function num(value, fallback = 0) {
   const n = Number(value);
   return Number.isFinite(n) ? n : fallback;
 }
-function feedMarketsToAllocatorMarkets(markets) {
-  return markets.slice(0, 25).map((m) => {
-    const probability = num(m.probability ?? m.yesPrice, 0.5);
-    const daysToEnd = m.daysToEnd == null || m.daysToEnd === void 0 ? void 0 : num(m.daysToEnd);
-    return {
-      slug: String(m.slug ?? ""),
-      question: String(m.question ?? ""),
-      yesTokenId: m.yesTokenId ? String(m.yesTokenId) : void 0,
-      noTokenId: m.noTokenId ? String(m.noTokenId) : void 0,
-      yesPrice: num(m.yesPrice, probability),
-      noPrice: num(m.noPrice, 1 - probability),
-      liquidity: num(m.liquidity),
-      volume24h: num(m.volume24h),
-      spread: num(m.spread),
-      rewardsDailyRate: num(m.rewardsDailyRate),
-      oneDayPriceChange: num(m.oneDayPriceChange),
-      ...daysToEnd !== void 0 && { daysToEnd },
-      active: m.active == null ? true : Boolean(m.active)
-    };
-  });
-}
-function allocationsFromDecisions(decisions) {
-  return decisions.filter((d) => String(d.market_slug ?? "")).map((d) => ({
-    market_slug: String(d.market_slug),
-    status: String(d.action ?? "planned").toLowerCase(),
-    allocated_capital: num(d.target_capital),
-    locked_capital: 0,
-    inventory_yes: 0,
-    inventory_no: 0,
-    open_order_notional: Array.isArray(d.order_plan) ? d.order_plan.reduce((sum, order) => sum + num(order.notional), 0) : 0
-  }));
-}
 function displayAllocatorCycleResult(result, globalOpts) {
   if (globalOpts.json) {
     json(result);
@@ -1105,7 +1112,7 @@ function displayAllocatorCycleResult(result, globalOpts) {
     chalk5.dim(
       `  ${num(result.total_markets, decisions.length)} markets \xB7 ${currency(
         num(summary.target_capital)
-      )} target capital \xB7 ${num(summary.orders_planned)} planned orders
+      )} target capital
 
 `
     )
@@ -1118,7 +1125,6 @@ function displayAllocatorCycleResult(result, globalOpts) {
     const action = String(d.action ?? "UNKNOWN");
     const score = num(d.score?.score);
     const expected = num(d.score?.expected_return_daily_pct);
-    const orders = Array.isArray(d.order_plan) ? d.order_plan.length : 0;
     const failedChecks = Array.isArray(d.safety_checks) ? d.safety_checks.filter((check) => check.passed === false).length : 0;
     return [
       truncate(String(d.question ?? d.market_slug ?? "\u2014"), 42),
@@ -1126,12 +1132,21 @@ function displayAllocatorCycleResult(result, globalOpts) {
       currency(num(d.target_capital)),
       signedCurrency(num(d.capital_delta)),
       `${expected.toFixed(3)}%`,
+      regimeLabel(String(d.quote_regime ?? "\u2014")),
       String(Math.round(score)),
-      String(orders),
       failedChecks === 0 ? chalk5.green("0") : chalk5.yellow(String(failedChecks))
     ];
   });
-  table(rows, ["Market", "Action", "Target", "Delta", "Exp/day", "Score", "Orders", "Fails"]);
+  table(rows, [
+    "Market",
+    "Action",
+    "Target",
+    "Delta",
+    "Exp/day",
+    "Regime",
+    "Score",
+    "Fails"
+  ]);
   process.stdout.write("\n");
   for (const decision of decisions.slice(0, 5)) {
     const action = String(decision.action ?? "UNKNOWN");
@@ -1141,17 +1156,13 @@ function displayAllocatorCycleResult(result, globalOpts) {
       process.stdout.write("  " + chalk5.dim("Rationale: ") + truncate(decision.rationale, 120));
     }
     process.stdout.write("\n");
-    const orders = Array.isArray(decision.order_plan) ? decision.order_plan : [];
-    for (const order of orders.slice(0, 2)) {
+    const economics = decision.economics ?? {};
+    if (economics.realized_spread_pnl !== void 0 || economics.reward_income !== void 0 || economics.net_realized_pnl !== void 0) {
       process.stdout.write(
-        "    " + chalk5.dim("Order: ") + `${String(order.side ?? "BUY")} ${String(order.outcome ?? "?")} @ ${num(order.price).toFixed(3)} for ${currency(num(order.notional))}
+        "    " + chalk5.dim("Economics: ") + `spread ${signedCurrency(num(economics.realized_spread_pnl))}, rewards ${signedCurrency(num(economics.reward_income))}, net ${signedCurrency(num(economics.net_realized_pnl))}
 `
       );
     }
-    if (orders.length > 2) {
-      process.stdout.write(chalk5.dim(`    \u2026 ${orders.length - 2} more orders
-`));
-    }
   }
   if (decisions.length > 5) {
     process.stdout.write(chalk5.dim(`
@@ -1159,6 +1170,18 @@ function displayAllocatorCycleResult(result, globalOpts) {
 `));
   }
 }
+function regimeLabel(value) {
+  switch (value) {
+    case "reward_optimized":
+      return chalk5.green("reward");
+    case "defensive":
+      return chalk5.yellow("defense");
+    case "no_quote":
+      return chalk5.red("no quote");
+    default:
+      return chalk5.dim(value);
+  }
+}
 function signedCurrency(value) {
   const formatted = currency(Math.abs(value));
   if (value > 0) return chalk5.green(`+${formatted}`);
@@ -1167,23 +1190,8 @@ function signedCurrency(value) {
 }
 
 // src/commands/allocator.ts
-var PROFILE_CHOICES2 = ["lp-opportunity", "liquidity-provider", "liquid-new-or-long"];
-function requireAuth5(client) {
-  if (!client.isAuthenticated) {
-    error("Not authenticated. Run `hl auth login` first.");
-    process.exit(1);
-  }
-}
-function isProfile2(s) {
-  return s !== void 0 && PROFILE_CHOICES2.includes(s);
-}
-function parseNonNegative(value) {
-  const n = Number(value);
-  if (!Number.isFinite(n) || n < 0) {
-    throw new InvalidArgumentError("Expected a non-negative number");
-  }
-  return n;
-}
+import { InvalidArgumentError } from "commander";
+import { readFile } from "fs/promises";
 function parsePositiveNumber(value) {
   const n = Number(value);
   if (!Number.isFinite(n) || n <= 0) {
@@ -1191,61 +1199,6 @@ function parsePositiveNumber(value) {
   }
   return n;
 }
-function parsePositiveInt(value) {
-  const n = Number(value);
-  if (!Number.isInteger(n) || n < 1) {
-    throw new InvalidArgumentError("Expected a positive integer");
-  }
-  return n;
-}
-function maybeAdd(entries, key, value) {
-  if (value !== void 0 && value !== "") entries.push([key, value]);
-}
-function feedQueryParams2(profile, opts) {
-  const entries = [];
-  maybeAdd(entries, "profile", profile);
-  maybeAdd(entries, "sortBy", opts.sortBy);
-  maybeAdd(entries, "tag", opts.tag);
-  maybeAdd(entries, "minVolume", opts.minVolume);
-  maybeAdd(entries, "minLiquidity", opts.minLiquidity);
-  maybeAdd(entries, "maxLiquidity", opts.maxLiquidity);
-  maybeAdd(entries, "minRewardsDailyRate", opts.minRewardsDailyRate);
-  maybeAdd(entries, "minDaysToEnd", opts.minDaysToEnd);
-  maybeAdd(entries, "maxDaysToEnd", opts.maxDaysToEnd);
-  maybeAdd(entries, "maxMarketAgeHours", opts.maxMarketAgeHours);
-  maybeAdd(entries, "liquidProfile", opts.liquidProfile);
-  maybeAdd(entries, "limit", opts.limit);
-  return Object.fromEntries(entries);
-}
-function strategyFromOptions(opts) {
-  return {
-    id: "cli-dry-run",
-    name: "CLI dry-run LP strategy",
-    status: opts.paused ? "paused" : "dry_run",
-    ...opts.totalHoldings !== void 0 && { total_holdings: opts.totalHoldings },
-    ...opts.capitalLimitPct !== void 0 && { capital_limit_pct: opts.capitalLimitPct },
-    ...opts.perMarketLimitPct !== void 0 && { per_market_limit_pct: opts.perMarketLimitPct },
-    capital_limit: opts.capitalLimit,
-    per_market_limit: opts.perMarketLimit,
-    min_expected_return_daily_pct: opts.minExpectedReturnDailyPct,
-    max_inventory_imbalance: opts.maxInventoryImbalance,
-    max_order_notional: opts.maxOrderNotional,
-    quote_edge_bps: opts.quoteEdgeBps,
-    min_liquidity: opts.allocatorMinLiquidity,
-    max_spread: opts.maxSpread,
-    min_days_to_end: opts.allocatorMinDaysToEnd,
-    max_markets: opts.maxMarkets
-  };
-}
-function validatePercentageSizing(opts) {
-  const usesPercentageSizing = opts.capitalLimitPct !== void 0 || opts.perMarketLimitPct !== void 0;
-  if (usesPercentageSizing && opts.totalHoldings === void 0) {
-    error(
-      "Percentage sizing requires --total-holdings so the allocator can convert percentages into dollar caps."
-    );
-    process.exit(1);
-  }
-}
 async function readAllocations(path) {
   if (!path) return [];
   const raw = path === "-" ? await readStdin() : await readFile(path, "utf8");
@@ -1255,6 +1208,18 @@ async function readAllocations(path) {
   }
   return parsed;
 }
+async function readMarketPayload(path) {
+  if (!path) return void 0;
+  const raw = path === "-" ? await readStdin() : await readFile(path, "utf8");
+  const parsed = JSON.parse(raw);
+  if (Array.isArray(parsed)) {
+    return parsed;
+  }
+  if (parsed && typeof parsed === "object" && Array.isArray(parsed.markets)) {
+    return parsed.markets;
+  }
+  throw new Error("Markets JSON must be an array or { markets: [...] }");
+}
 async function readStdin() {
   const chunks = [];
   for await (const chunk of process.stdin) {
@@ -1262,92 +1227,18 @@ async function readStdin() {
   }
   return Buffer.concat(chunks).toString("utf8");
 }
-async function runAllocatorCycle(client, payload) {
-  return client.post("/api/allocator/cycle", payload);
-}
-function registerAllocatorCommands(program2) {
-  const allocator = program2.command("allocator").description("Run dry-run liquidity allocation cycles");
-  allocator.command("cycle").description("Find LP candidates from /api/feed and run a dry-run allocator cycle").argument(
-    "[screening]",
-    `Optional screening preset: ${PROFILE_CHOICES2.join(" | ")} (same as --profile)`,
-    "lp-opportunity"
-  ).option("--profile <name>", `Screening defaults: ${PROFILE_CHOICES2.join(", ")}`).option("--sort-by <key>", "score | volume | liquidity | movement | spread | rewards | rewardYield | lpExpectedReturn | horizon").option("--tag <slug>", "Polymarket category tag, e.g. crypto, politics").option("--min-volume <usd>", "Minimum 24h volume (USD)").option("--min-liquidity <usd>", "Minimum displayed liquidity (USD)").option("--max-liquidity <usd>", "Maximum displayed liquidity (USD)").option("--min-rewards-daily-rate <usd>", "Minimum LP rewards USD/day").option("--min-days-to-end <n>", "Feed filter: minimum days until resolution").option("--max-days-to-end <n>", "Feed filter: maximum days until resolution").option("--max-market-age-hours <n>", "With liquid-new-or-long: max age for the new branch").option("--liquid-profile <mode>", "new-or-long (used by liquid-new-or-long screen)").option("--limit <n>", "Max feed markets to fetch (1-100, default 15)", "15").option("--total-holdings <usd>", "Total user holdings / portfolio value used for percentage sizing", parsePositiveNumber).option("--capital-limit-pct <pct>", "Portfolio-level allocation cap as a percent of total holdings", parsePositiveNumber).option("--per-market-limit-pct <pct>", "Per-market target cap as a percent of total holdings", parsePositiveNumber).option("--capital-limit <usd>", "Portfolio capital limit for this cycle", parseNonNegative, 500).option("--per-market-limit <usd>", "Per-market target cap", parseNonNegative, 100).option("--min-expected-return-daily-pct <pct>", "Minimum expected daily return percent", parseNonNegative, 0.02).option("--max-inventory-imbalance <ratio>", "Maximum inventory imbalance", parseNonNegative, 0.25).option("--max-order-notional <usd>", "Maximum notional per planned passive order", parseNonNegative, 25).option("--quote-edge-bps <bps>", "Passive quote edge in basis points", parseNonNegative, 100).option("--allocator-min-liquidity <usd>", "Allocator safety gate: minimum market liquidity", parseNonNegative, 500).option("--max-spread <ratio>", "Allocator safety gate: maximum spread", parseNonNegative, 0.12).option("--allocator-min-days-to-end <n>", "Allocator safety gate: minimum days to resolution", parseNonNegative, 3).option("--max-markets <n>", "Maximum markets allocator may target", parsePositiveInt, 5).option("--allocations <file>", "Existing allocations JSON array; use '-' to read stdin").option("--repeat", "Run a second cycle using targets returned by the first cycle").option("--paused", "Send strategy status paused instead of dry_run").action(async (screening, o) => {
-    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
-    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth5(client);
-    validatePercentageSizing(o);
-    let profile = o.profile ?? screening ?? "lp-opportunity";
-    if (!isProfile2(profile)) {
-      error(`Unknown screening "${profile}". Use: ${PROFILE_CHOICES2.join(" or ")}`);
-      process.exit(1);
-    }
-    if (o.profile && screening && screening !== "lp-opportunity" && o.profile !== screening) {
-      warn(`Both positional and --profile set; using --profile (${o.profile}).`);
-      profile = o.profile;
-    }
-    const feed = await client.get("/api/feed", feedQueryParams2(profile, o));
-    if (feed.error) {
-      error(feed.error);
-      process.exit(1);
-    }
-    if (feed.markets.length === 0) {
-      warn("No feed markets matched the allocator criteria.");
-      return;
-    }
-    const allocations = await readAllocations(o.allocations);
-    const payload = {
-      strategy: strategyFromOptions(o),
-      markets: feedMarketsToAllocatorMarkets(feed.markets),
-      allocations
-    };
-    if (!globalOpts.json) {
-      process.stderr.write(
-        chalk6.dim(
-          `  Running allocator dry-run on ${feed.markets.length} ${profile} candidates...
-`
-        )
-      );
-    }
-    const first = await runAllocatorCycle(client, payload);
-    const firstResult = first.result ?? {};
-    if (o.repeat) {
-      const repeatPayload = {
-        ...payload,
-        allocations: allocationsFromDecisions(firstResult.decisions ?? [])
-      };
-      const second = await runAllocatorCycle(client, repeatPayload);
-      if (globalOpts.json) {
-        json({ initial: first, repeat: second });
-      } else {
-        displayAllocatorCycleResult(firstResult, globalOpts);
-        process.stdout.write("\n" + chalk6.bold("Repeated with target allocations") + "\n");
-        displayAllocatorCycleResult(second.result ?? {}, globalOpts);
-      }
-      return;
-    }
-    if (globalOpts.json) {
-      json(first);
-    } else {
-      displayAllocatorCycleResult(firstResult, globalOpts);
-    }
-  });
-}
-
-// src/commands/lp.ts
-import { InvalidArgumentError as InvalidArgumentError2 } from "commander";
-import { writeFile } from "fs/promises";
 
 // src/lp-display.ts
-import chalk7 from "chalk";
+import chalk6 from "chalk";
 function num2(value, fallback = 0) {
   const n = Number(value);
   return Number.isFinite(n) ? n : fallback;
 }
 function signedCurrency2(value) {
   const formatted = currency(Math.abs(value));
-  if (value > 0) return chalk7.green(`+${formatted}`);
-  if (value < 0) return chalk7.yellow(`-${formatted}`);
-  return chalk7.dim("$0.00");
+  if (value > 0) return chalk6.green(`+${formatted}`);
+  if (value < 0) return chalk6.yellow(`-${formatted}`);
+  return chalk6.dim("$0.00");
 }
 function actionSummary(actions) {
   if (!actions) return "none";
@@ -1360,13 +1251,13 @@ function displayLpScanResult(result, globalOpts) {
   }
   heading("LP Scan");
   process.stdout.write(
-    chalk7.dim(
+    chalk6.dim(
       `  scan ${result.scanId} \xB7 strategy ${result.strategyId} \xB7 ${result.evidenceSaved} evidence rows saved
 `
     )
   );
   process.stdout.write(
-    chalk7.dim(
+    chalk6.dim(
       `  ${result.totalScanned.toLocaleString()} scanned \xB7 ${result.totalAfterFilter.toLocaleString()} after filters \xB7 profile ${result.profile}
 
 `
@@ -1395,13 +1286,13 @@ function displayLpRecommendResult(result, globalOpts) {
   }
   heading("LP Recommendations");
   process.stdout.write(
-    chalk7.dim(
+    chalk6.dim(
       `  cycle ${result.cycleId} \xB7 strategy ${result.strategyId} \xB7 ${result.candidatesSubmitted} markets \xB7 ${result.allocationsSubmitted} current allocations
 `
     )
   );
   process.stdout.write(
-    chalk7.dim(
+    chalk6.dim(
       `  PnL context ${result.pnlContextCount} rows${result.pnlSynced ? " \xB7 synced" : ""} \xB7 approvals required
 
 `
@@ -1416,11 +1307,11 @@ function displayLpEvaluateResult(result, globalOpts) {
   }
   heading("LP Evaluation");
   process.stdout.write(
-    chalk7.dim(
+    chalk6.dim(
       `  strategy ${result.strategyId} \xB7 ${result.summary.snapshots} snapshots \xB7 ${result.summary.markets} markets`
     )
   );
-  if (result.pnlSynced) process.stdout.write(chalk7.dim(" \xB7 synced"));
+  if (result.pnlSynced) process.stdout.write(chalk6.dim(" \xB7 synced"));
   process.stdout.write("\n\n");
   if (result.syncError) warn(result.syncError);
   table(
@@ -1448,58 +1339,58 @@ function displayLpEvaluateResult(result, globalOpts) {
     ["Market", "Outcome", "Net", "Lesson"]
   );
 }
-function displayLpRunResult(result, globalOpts) {
-  if (globalOpts.json) {
-    json(result);
-    return;
-  }
-  heading("LP Run");
-  process.stdout.write(
-    chalk7.dim(
-      `  cycle ${result.run.cycleId} \xB7 scan ${result.run.scanId ?? "n/a"} \xB7 strategy ${result.run.strategyId}
-`
-    )
-  );
-  process.stdout.write(
-    chalk7.dim(
-      `  ${result.run.opportunitiesFound} opportunities \xB7 PnL ${result.run.pnlSynced ? "synced" : "not synced"} \xB7 approvals required
-
-`
-    )
-  );
-  displayAllocatorCycleResult(result.run.result, globalOpts);
-  if (result.evaluation) {
-    process.stdout.write("\n");
-    process.stdout.write(
-      chalk7.dim(
-        `  Evaluation: ${signedCurrency2(result.evaluation.summary.netPnl)} net PnL across ${result.evaluation.summary.markets} markets
-`
-      )
-    );
-  }
-}
 
 // src/commands/lp.ts
-function requireAuth6(client) {
+function requireAuth5(client) {
   if (!client.isAuthenticated) {
     error("Not authenticated. Run `hl auth login` first.");
     process.exit(1);
   }
 }
-function parseNonNegative2(value) {
+function parseNonNegative(value) {
   const n = Number(value);
   if (!Number.isFinite(n) || n < 0) {
     throw new InvalidArgumentError2("Expected a non-negative number");
   }
   return n;
 }
-function parsePositiveInt2(value) {
+function parsePositiveInt(value) {
   const n = Number(value);
   if (!Number.isInteger(n) || n < 1) {
     throw new InvalidArgumentError2("Expected a positive integer");
   }
   return n;
 }
+function strategyFromAllocatorOptions(opts) {
+  return {
+    id: "cli-lp-allocator",
+    name: "CLI LP allocator dry run",
+    status: opts.paused ? "paused" : "dry_run",
+    ...opts.totalHoldings !== void 0 && { total_holdings: opts.totalHoldings },
+    ...opts.capitalLimitPct !== void 0 && { capital_limit_pct: opts.capitalLimitPct },
+    ...opts.perMarketLimitPct !== void 0 && { per_market_limit_pct: opts.perMarketLimitPct },
+    capital_limit: opts.capitalLimit,
+    per_market_limit: opts.perMarketLimit,
+    min_expected_return_daily_pct: opts.minExpectedReturnDailyPct,
+    max_inventory_imbalance: opts.maxInventoryImbalance,
+    volatility_fill_spike_threshold: opts.volatilityFillSpikeThreshold,
+    event_no_quote_minutes_before: opts.eventNoQuoteMinutesBefore,
+    event_no_quote_minutes_after: opts.eventNoQuoteMinutesAfter,
+    min_liquidity: opts.allocatorMinLiquidity,
+    max_spread: opts.maxSpread,
+    min_days_to_end: opts.allocatorMinDaysToEnd,
+    max_markets: opts.maxMarkets
+  };
+}
+function validateAllocatorPercentageSizing(opts) {
+  const usesPercentageSizing = opts.capitalLimitPct !== void 0 || opts.perMarketLimitPct !== void 0;
+  if (usesPercentageSizing && opts.totalHoldings === void 0) {
+    error(
+      "Percentage sizing requires --total-holdings so the allocator can convert percentages into dollar caps."
+    );
+    process.exit(1);
+  }
+}
 function compact(payload) {
   return Object.fromEntries(
     Object.entries(payload).filter(([, value]) => value !== void 0 && value !== "")
@@ -1547,19 +1438,43 @@ function buildLpEvaluatePayload(opts) {
     limit: opts.limit
   });
 }
-function buildLpRunPayload(opts) {
-  return compact({
-    strategyId: opts.strategyId,
-    limit: opts.limit,
-    syncPnl: opts.syncPnl
-  });
+async function runAllocatorCycle(client, payload) {
+  return client.post("/api/lp/allocator", payload);
 }
 function registerLpCommands(program2) {
   const lp = program2.command("lp").description("Run persisted liquidity-provider scan, recommendation, and evaluation workflows");
-  lp.command("scan").description("Scan LP candidates and persist them as evidence").argument("[topic]", "Human label for this scan, e.g. liquidity opportunities").option("--profile <name>", "lp-opportunity | liquidity-provider | liquid-new-or-long", "liquidity-provider").option("--sort-by <key>", "score | volume | liquidity | movement | spread | rewards | rewardYield | lpExpectedReturn | horizon").option("--tag <slug>", "Polymarket category tag, e.g. crypto, politics").option("--min-volume <usd>", "Minimum 24h volume (USD)", parseNonNegative2).option("--min-liquidity <usd>", "Minimum displayed liquidity (USD)", parseNonNegative2).option("--max-liquidity <usd>", "Maximum displayed liquidity (USD)", parseNonNegative2).option("--min-rewards-daily-rate <usd>", "Minimum LP rewards USD/day", parseNonNegative2).option("--min-days-to-end <n>", "Minimum days until resolution", parseNonNegative2).option("--max-days-to-end <n>", "Maximum days until resolution", parseNonNegative2).option("--max-market-age-hours <n>", "With liquid-new-or-long: max age for the new branch", parseNonNegative2).option("--liquid-profile <mode>", "new-or-long").option("--limit <n>", "Max markets to scan/save (1-100, default 15)", parsePositiveInt2, 15).option("--strategy-id <uuid>", "LP strategy id").option("--output <file>", "Write the evidence JSON response to a local file").action(async (topic, opts) => {
+  lp.command("allocator").description("Run the allocator agent on an explicit market list").requiredOption("--markets <file>", "Candidate market JSON array or { markets }; use '-' to read stdin").option("--allocations <file>", "Existing allocations JSON array; use '-' to read stdin").option("--total-holdings <usd>", "Total holdings / portfolio value used for percentage sizing", parsePositiveNumber).option("--capital-limit-pct <pct>", "Portfolio-level allocation cap as a percent of total holdings", parsePositiveNumber).option("--per-market-limit-pct <pct>", "Per-market target cap as a percent of total holdings", parsePositiveNumber).option("--capital-limit <usd>", "Portfolio capital limit for this allocator request", parseNonNegative, 500).option("--per-market-limit <usd>", "Per-market target cap", parseNonNegative, 100).option("--min-expected-return-daily-pct <pct>", "Minimum expected daily return percent", parseNonNegative, 0.02).option("--max-inventory-imbalance <ratio>", "Maximum inventory imbalance", parseNonNegative, 0.25).option("--volatility-fill-spike-threshold <ratio>", "Fill-rate imbalance that switches quotes to defensive mode", parseNonNegative, 0.35).option("--event-no-quote-minutes-before <n>", "No-quote window before scheduled events", parseNonNegative, 60).option("--event-no-quote-minutes-after <n>", "No-quote window after scheduled events", parseNonNegative, 30).option("--allocator-min-liquidity <usd>", "Allocator safety gate: minimum market liquidity", parseNonNegative, 500).option("--max-spread <ratio>", "Allocator safety gate: maximum spread", parseNonNegative, 0.12).option("--allocator-min-days-to-end <n>", "Allocator safety gate: minimum days to resolution", parseNonNegative, 3).option("--max-markets <n>", "Maximum markets allocator may target", parsePositiveInt, 5).option("--paused", "Send strategy status paused instead of dry_run").action(async (opts) => {
     const globalOpts = program2.opts();
     const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth6(client);
+    requireAuth5(client);
+    validateAllocatorPercentageSizing(opts);
+    const markets = await readMarketPayload(opts.markets);
+    if (!markets || markets.length === 0) {
+      error("Markets JSON must include at least one market.");
+      process.exit(1);
+    }
+    const payload = {
+      strategy: strategyFromAllocatorOptions(opts),
+      markets,
+      allocations: await readAllocations(opts.allocations)
+    };
+    if (!globalOpts.json) {
+      process.stderr.write(
+        dim(`  Running allocator dry-run on ${markets.length} provided candidates...
+`)
+      );
+    }
+    const response = await runAllocatorCycle(client, payload);
+    if (globalOpts.json) {
+      json(response);
+    } else {
+      displayAllocatorCycleResult(response.result ?? {}, globalOpts);
+    }
+  });
+  lp.command("scan").description("Scan LP candidates and persist them as evidence").argument("[topic]", "Human label for this scan, e.g. liquidity opportunities").option("--profile <name>", "lp-opportunity | liquidity-provider | liquid-new-or-long", "liquidity-provider").option("--sort-by <key>", "score | volume | liquidity | movement | spread | rewards | rewardYield | lpExpectedReturn | horizon").option("--tag <slug>", "Polymarket category tag, e.g. crypto, politics").option("--min-volume <usd>", "Minimum 24h volume (USD)", parseNonNegative).option("--min-liquidity <usd>", "Minimum displayed liquidity (USD)", parseNonNegative).option("--max-liquidity <usd>", "Maximum displayed liquidity (USD)", parseNonNegative).option("--min-rewards-daily-rate <usd>", "Minimum LP rewards USD/day", parseNonNegative).option("--min-days-to-end <n>", "Minimum days until resolution", parseNonNegative).option("--max-days-to-end <n>", "Maximum days until resolution", parseNonNegative).option("--max-market-age-hours <n>", "With liquid-new-or-long: max age for the new branch", parseNonNegative).option("--liquid-profile <mode>", "new-or-long").option("--limit <n>", "Max markets to scan/save (1-100, default 15)", parsePositiveInt, 15).option("--strategy-id <uuid>", "LP strategy id").option("--output <file>", "Write the evidence JSON response to a local file").action(async (topic, opts) => {
+    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
+    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
+    requireAuth5(client);
     const result = await client.post(
       "/api/lp/scan",
       buildLpScanPayload(topic, opts)
@@ -1567,10 +1482,10 @@ function registerLpCommands(program2) {
     await writeArtifact(opts.output, result, Boolean(globalOpts.json));
     displayLpScanResult(result, globalOpts);
   });
-  lp.command("recommend").description("Run allocator recommendations from saved LP evidence and current allocations").option("--strategy-id <uuid>", "LP strategy id").option("--scan-id <uuid>", "Use candidates from a specific saved scan").option("--limit <n>", "Max saved candidates to submit (1-25, default 15)", parsePositiveInt2, 15).option("--sync-pnl", "Refresh wallet PnL before recommending").option("--output <file>", "Write the recommendation JSON response to a local file").action(async (opts) => {
+  lp.command("recommend").description("Run allocator recommendations from saved LP evidence and current allocations").option("--strategy-id <uuid>", "LP strategy id").option("--scan-id <uuid>", "Use candidates from a specific saved scan").option("--limit <n>", "Max saved candidates to submit (1-25, default 15)", parsePositiveInt, 15).option("--sync-pnl", "Refresh wallet PnL before recommending").option("--output <file>", "Write the recommendation JSON response to a local file").action(async (opts) => {
     const globalOpts = program2.opts();
     const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth6(client);
+    requireAuth5(client);
     const result = await client.post(
       "/api/lp/recommend",
       buildLpRecommendPayload(opts)
@@ -1578,10 +1493,10 @@ function registerLpCommands(program2) {
     await writeArtifact(opts.output, result, Boolean(globalOpts.json));
     displayLpRecommendResult(result, globalOpts);
   });
-  lp.command("evaluate").description("Evaluate LP performance and return compact lessons").option("--strategy-id <uuid>", "LP strategy id").option("--wallet-address <address>", "Wallet address to sync PnL from").option("--no-sync-pnl", "Use existing PnL snapshots without refreshing").option("--limit <n>", "Max PnL snapshots to evaluate (1-100, default 50)", parsePositiveInt2, 50).option("--output <file>", "Write the evaluation JSON response to a local file").action(async (opts) => {
+  lp.command("evaluate").description("Evaluate LP performance and return compact lessons").option("--strategy-id <uuid>", "LP strategy id").option("--wallet-address <address>", "Wallet address to sync PnL from").option("--no-sync-pnl", "Use existing PnL snapshots without refreshing").option("--limit <n>", "Max PnL snapshots to evaluate (1-100, default 50)", parsePositiveInt, 50).option("--output <file>", "Write the evaluation JSON response to a local file").action(async (opts) => {
     const globalOpts = program2.opts();
     const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth6(client);
+    requireAuth5(client);
     const result = await client.post(
       "/api/lp/evaluate",
       buildLpEvaluatePayload(opts)
@@ -1589,31 +1504,6 @@ function registerLpCommands(program2) {
     await writeArtifact(opts.output, result, Boolean(globalOpts.json));
     displayLpEvaluateResult(result, globalOpts);
   });
-  lp.command("run").description("Run scan, recommendation, and evaluation as one dry-run chain").option("--strategy-id <uuid>", "LP strategy id").option("--limit <n>", "Max candidates to scan/recommend (1-25, default 15)", parsePositiveInt2, 15).option("--no-sync-pnl", "Use existing PnL snapshots without refreshing").option("--output <file>", "Write the chained run JSON response to a local file").action(async (opts) => {
-    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
-    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth6(client);
-    const run = await client.post(
-      "/api/lp/run",
-      buildLpRunPayload(opts)
-    );
-    let evaluation = null;
-    try {
-      evaluation = await client.post("/api/lp/evaluate", {
-        strategyId: run.strategyId,
-        syncPnl: false
-      });
-    } catch (error2) {
-      if (!globalOpts.json) {
-        warn(
-          `Could not load evaluation summary: ${error2 instanceof Error ? error2.message : String(error2)}`
-        );
-      }
-    }
-    const combined = { run, evaluation };
-    await writeArtifact(opts.output, combined, Boolean(globalOpts.json));
-    displayLpRunResult(combined, globalOpts);
-  });
 }
 
 // src/commands/wallet.ts
@@ -1624,7 +1514,7 @@ var POLYGON_NATIVE_USDC = "0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359";
 var SUPPORTED_ASSETS = ["pUsd", "usdcE", "matic"];
 var POLYGON_NATIVE_ASSET_LABEL = "POL";
 var TERMINAL_WITHDRAWAL_STATUSES = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set(["succeeded", "failed", "cancelled", "expired"]);
-function requireAuth7(client) {
+function requireAuth6(client) {
   if (!client.isAuthenticated) {
     error("Not authenticated. Run `hl auth login` first.");
     process.exit(1);
@@ -1809,7 +1699,7 @@ function registerWalletCommands(program2) {
   wallet.command("status").description("Show linked owner and Polymarket deposit wallet status").action(async () => {
     const globalOpts = program2.opts();
     const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth7(client);
+    requireAuth6(client);
     const status = await client.get("/api/wallet/status");
     if (globalOpts.json) {
       json(status);
@@ -1820,7 +1710,7 @@ function registerWalletCommands(program2) {
   wallet.command("balances").alias("funds").description("Show available wallet funds").action(async () => {
     const globalOpts = program2.opts();
     const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth7(client);
+    requireAuth6(client);
     const balances = await client.get("/api/wallet/balances");
     if (globalOpts.json) {
       json(balances);
@@ -1831,7 +1721,7 @@ function registerWalletCommands(program2) {
   wallet.command("deposit").description("Show deposit address and supported Polygon assets").option("--asset <asset>", "pUSD | USDC.e | POL").option("--bridge", "Also request Polymarket Bridge deposit addresses").action(async (opts) => {
     const globalOpts = program2.opts();
     const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth7(client);
+    requireAuth6(client);
     const asset = normalizeWalletAsset(opts.asset);
     const result = await client.post("/api/wallet/deposit", {
       bridge: Boolean(opts.bridge)
@@ -1854,7 +1744,7 @@ function registerWalletCommands(program2) {
   wallet.command("withdraw").description("Create a browser-signed withdrawal intent and poll for completion").requiredOption("--to <address>", "Recipient EVM wallet address", parseWalletAddress).requiredOption("--amount <amount>", "Amount to withdraw", parsePositiveNumber2).option("--asset <asset>", "Source asset; currently only pUSD is supported", "pUSD").option("--to-chain-id <id>", "Destination chain id", "137").option("--to-token-address <address>", "Destination token address", parseWalletAddress, POLYGON_NATIVE_USDC).option("--no-open", "Do not open the browser signing URL").option("--no-wait", "Do not poll for completion after creating the intent").option("--poll-interval <seconds>", "Polling interval in seconds", parsePositiveNumber2, 5).option("--timeout <seconds>", "Maximum seconds to wait for completion", parsePositiveNumber2, 600).action(async (opts) => {
     const globalOpts = program2.opts();
     const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
-    requireAuth7(client);
+    requireAuth6(client);
     const created = await client.post(
       "/api/wallet/withdraw/intents",
       buildWithdrawRequestPayload(opts)
@@ -1879,9 +1769,209 @@ function registerWalletCommands(program2) {
   });
 }
 
+// src/commands/signal.ts
+import { InvalidArgumentError as InvalidArgumentError4 } from "commander";
+import { readFile as readFile2 } from "fs/promises";
+
+// src/signal-display.ts
+import chalk7 from "chalk";
+function pctFromSignalValue(value) {
+  if (value === null || value === void 0 || Number.isNaN(value)) return null;
+  return Math.abs(value) <= 1 ? value * 100 : value;
+}
+function formatProbability(value) {
+  const pct = pctFromSignalValue(value);
+  return pct === null ? "n/a" : `${pct.toFixed(1)}%`;
+}
+function formatGap(value) {
+  if (value === null || value === void 0 || Number.isNaN(value)) return "n/a";
+  const points = Math.abs(value) <= 1 ? value * 100 : value;
+  const formatted = `${points >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${points.toFixed(1)}pp`;
+  if (points > 0) return chalk7.green(formatted);
+  if (points < 0) return chalk7.red(formatted);
+  return chalk7.dim(formatted);
+}
+function formatStrength(value) {
+  if (value === "strong") return chalk7.green("strong");
+  if (value === "weak") return chalk7.yellow("weak");
+  return value ? chalk7.dim(value) : "n/a";
+}
+function analysisItems(result) {
+  if (!result) return [];
+  if (result.analysis) return [result];
+  return result.analyses ?? [];
+}
+function titleFor(analysis) {
+  return analysis.market_name || analysis.market_slug || "market";
+}
+function displaySignalAnalysis(response, globalOpts) {
+  if (globalOpts.json) {
+    json(response);
+    return;
+  }
+  if (response.error) {
+    error(response.error);
+    return;
+  }
+  const result = response.result;
+  if (result?.error) {
+    error(result.error);
+    return;
+  }
+  const items = analysisItems(result);
+  if (items.length === 0) {
+    warn("No signal analysis returned.");
+    return;
+  }
+  heading(
+    items.length === 1 ? "Signal Analysis" : `Signal Analysis \u2014 ${items.length} markets`
+  );
+  const rows = items.map((item) => {
+    const analysis = item.analysis ?? {};
+    return [
+      truncate(titleFor(analysis), 44),
+      formatProbability(analysis.current_yes_prob),
+      formatProbability(analysis.predicted_prob),
+      formatGap(analysis.probability_gap),
+      formatStrength(analysis.signal_strength),
+      analysis.confidence ?? "n/a"
+    ];
+  });
+  table(rows, ["Market", "Market YES", "Agent YES", "Gap", "Signal", "Conf"]);
+  for (const item of items.slice(0, 3)) {
+    const analysis = item.analysis;
+    if (!analysis) continue;
+    process.stdout.write("\n  " + chalk7.bold(truncate(titleFor(analysis), 76)) + "\n");
+    if (analysis.market_link) {
+      process.stdout.write("  " + chalk7.dim("Polymarket: ") + analysis.market_link + "\n");
+    }
+    if (analysis.key_factors && analysis.key_factors.length > 0) {
+      process.stdout.write("  " + chalk7.dim("Key factors: ") + analysis.key_factors.slice(0, 4).join("; ") + "\n");
+    }
+    if (analysis.research_findings) {
+      process.stdout.write(
+        "  " + chalk7.dim("Research: ") + truncate(analysis.research_findings, 180) + "\n"
+      );
+    }
+  }
+  if (items.length > 3) {
+    process.stdout.write(chalk7.dim(`
+  ... and ${items.length - 3} more
+`));
+  }
+  if (result?.strong_signal_count !== void 0) {
+    process.stdout.write(
+      chalk7.dim(`
+  Strong signals: ${result.strong_signal_count}
+`)
+    );
+  }
+}
+
+// src/commands/signal.ts
+function requireAuth7(client) {
+  if (!client.isAuthenticated) {
+    error("Not authenticated. Run `hl auth login` first.");
+    process.exit(1);
+  }
+}
+function collect(value, previous = []) {
+  return [...previous, value];
+}
+function parseProbability(value) {
+  const n = Number(value);
+  if (!Number.isFinite(n) || n < 0 || n > 100) {
+    throw new InvalidArgumentError4("Expected a probability between 0 and 100");
+  }
+  return n;
+}
+async function readStdin2() {
+  const chunks = [];
+  for await (const chunk of process.stdin) {
+    chunks.push(Buffer.isBuffer(chunk) ? chunk : Buffer.from(chunk));
+  }
+  return Buffer.concat(chunks).toString("utf8");
+}
+async function readMarketPayload2(path) {
+  if (!path) return {};
+  const raw = path === "-" ? await readStdin2() : await readFile2(path, "utf8");
+  const parsed = JSON.parse(raw);
+  if (Array.isArray(parsed)) {
+    return { markets: parsed };
+  }
+  if (parsed && typeof parsed === "object" && Array.isArray(parsed.markets)) {
+    return { markets: parsed.markets };
+  }
+  if (parsed && typeof parsed === "object" && parsed.market) {
+    return { market: parsed.market };
+  }
+  if (parsed && typeof parsed === "object") {
+    return { market: parsed };
+  }
+  throw new Error("Market JSON must be an object, an array, or { market | markets }");
+}
+function inlineMarketFromOptions(opts) {
+  const market = {};
+  if (opts.question) market.question = opts.question;
+  if (opts.description) market.description = opts.description;
+  if (opts.yesProb !== void 0) market.yesPrice = opts.yesProb;
+  if (opts.noProb !== void 0) market.noPrice = opts.noProb;
+  if (opts.slug) market.slug = opts.slug;
+  if (opts.link) market.link = opts.link;
+  return Object.keys(market).length > 0 ? market : void 0;
+}
+async function buildSignalPayload(positionalUrl, opts) {
+  const urls = [positionalUrl, ...opts.url ?? []].filter(
+    (value) => Boolean(value)
+  );
+  const filePayload = await readMarketPayload2(opts.market);
+  const inlineMarket = inlineMarketFromOptions(opts);
+  const hasMarketInput = Boolean(filePayload.market || filePayload.markets || inlineMarket);
+  if (urls.length > 0 && hasMarketInput) {
+    throw new Error("Use either URL input or market JSON/options, not both.");
+  }
+  if (filePayload.market && inlineMarket) {
+    throw new Error("Use either --market or inline market options, not both.");
+  }
+  if (filePayload.markets && inlineMarket) {
+    throw new Error("Use either --market or inline market options, not both.");
+  }
+  if (urls.length === 0 && !hasMarketInput) {
+    throw new Error("Provide a Polymarket URL or a market payload.");
+  }
+  const payload = urls.length === 1 ? { url: urls[0] } : urls.length > 1 ? { urls } : filePayload.market ? { market: filePayload.market } : filePayload.markets ? { markets: filePayload.markets } : { market: inlineMarket };
+  if (opts.context) {
+    payload.previous_analysis_context = opts.context;
+  }
+  return payload;
+}
+async function runSignalAnalysis(client, payload) {
+  return client.post("/api/signal/analyze", payload);
+}
+function registerSignalCommands(program2) {
+  const signal = program2.command("signal").description("Analyze Polymarket probability gaps with the signal agent");
+  signal.command("analyze").description("Estimate true YES probability and compare it with market pricing").argument("[url]", "Polymarket market/event URL to analyze").option("--url <url>", "Additional Polymarket URL; repeat for multiple markets", collect, []).option("--market <file>", "Inline market JSON object/array; use '-' to read stdin").option("--context <text>", "Prior search notes or analysis context for the agent").option("--question <text>", "Inline market question when not using a URL").option("--description <text>", "Inline market description or resolution criteria").option("--yes-prob <prob>", "Current YES probability or price, e.g. 0.52 or 52", parseProbability).option("--no-prob <prob>", "Current NO probability or price, e.g. 0.48 or 48", parseProbability).option("--slug <slug>", "Inline market slug").option("--link <url>", "Inline market link").action(async (url, o) => {
+    const globalOpts = program2.opts();
+    const client = new ApiClient(globalOpts);
+    requireAuth7(client);
+    let payload;
+    try {
+      payload = await buildSignalPayload(url, o);
+    } catch (e) {
+      error(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e));
+      process.exit(1);
+    }
+    if (!globalOpts.json) {
+      process.stderr.write(dim("  Running signal analysis...\n"));
+    }
+    const result = await runSignalAnalysis(client, payload);
+    displaySignalAnalysis(result, globalOpts);
+  });
+}
+
 // src/index.ts
 var program = new Command4();
-program.name("hl").description("Hedge Layer CLI \u2014 prediction market intelligence from the terminal").version("1.7.0").option("--json", "Output as JSON (machine-readable)").option("--api-url <url>", "Override API base URL").option("--token <token>", "Override stored API token").option("--verbose", "Show HTTP request details").option("--no-color", "Disable colored output");
+program.name("hl").description("Hedge Layer CLI \u2014 prediction market intelligence from the terminal").version("2.0.0").option("--json", "Output as JSON (machine-readable)").option("--api-url <url>", "Override API base URL").option("--token <token>", "Override stored API token").option("--verbose", "Show HTTP request details").option("--no-color", "Disable colored output");
 registerAuthCommands(program);
 registerBriefCommands(program);
 registerProfileCommand(program);
@@ -1889,7 +1979,7 @@ registerResearchCommands(program);
 registerFeedCommand(program);
 registerWalletCommands(program);
 registerLpCommands(program);
-registerAllocatorCommands(program);
+registerSignalCommands(program);
 program.hook("preAction", (_thisCommand, actionCommand) => {
   const opts = program.opts();
   if (opts.color === false) {