@gonzih/polymarket-arb 1.0.6 → 1.0.8

package/dist/simulate.js

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+import { execFile } from "child_process";
+import { promisify } from "util";
+import { log } from "./logger.js";
+const execFileAsync = promisify(execFile);
+const PERSONAS = [
+    { name: "skeptic", prior: "You are deeply skeptical. Challenge assumptions, look for what could go wrong." },
+    { name: "optimist", prior: "You are optimistic about outcomes. Look for reasons things will succeed." },
+    { name: "regulator", prior: "You think like a financial regulator. Focus on compliance, risk, systemic issues." },
+    { name: "trader", prior: "You are a quantitative trader. Focus on base rates, historical precedent, market signals." },
+    { name: "journalist", prior: "You are an investigative journalist. Look for narrative, public perception, media dynamics." },
+];
+async function runPersona(persona, question, currentOdds) {
+    const prompt = `${persona.prior}
+
+Prediction market question: "${question}"
+Current market price: ${(currentOdds * 100).toFixed(1)}% YES
+
+What is your probability estimate (0-100) for YES? Keep it brief.
+Respond with JSON only, no markdown:
+{"probability": <0-100>, "reasoning": "<one sentence>"}`;
+    try {
+        const { stdout } = await execFileAsync("claude", ["--print", "--model", "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", prompt], {
+            timeout: 15000,
+            env: {
+                ...process.env,
+                CLAUDE_CODE_OAUTH_TOKEN: process.env.CLAUDE_CODE_OAUTH_TOKEN ?? "",
+                ANTHROPIC_AUTH_TOKEN: process.env.ANTHROPIC_AUTH_TOKEN ??
+                    process.env.CLAUDE_CODE_OAUTH_TOKEN ??
+                    "",
+            },
+        });
+        const jsonMatch = stdout.match(/\{[\s\S]*?\}/);
+        if (!jsonMatch)
+            return null;
+        const parsed = JSON.parse(jsonMatch[0]);
+        return {
+            name: persona.name,
+            estimate: Math.max(0, Math.min(100, Number(parsed.probability))) / 100,
+            reasoning: String(parsed.reasoning),
+        };
+    }
+    catch {
+        return null;
+    }
+}
+export function median(values) {
+    if (values.length === 0)
+        return 0.5;
+    const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+    const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
+    return sorted.length % 2 === 0
+        ? (sorted[mid - 1] + sorted[mid]) / 2
+        : sorted[mid];
+}
+export async function simulateMarket(question, currentOdds) {
+    const results = await Promise.all(PERSONAS.map((p) => runPersona(p, question, currentOdds)));
+    const personas = results.filter((r) => r !== null);
+    const estimates = personas.map((p) => p.estimate);
+    const consensus = median(estimates);
+    const spread = estimates.length > 1
+        ? Math.max(...estimates) - Math.min(...estimates)
+        : 0;
+    log("info", {
+        source: "simulate",
+        event: "simulation_complete",
+        question,
+        currentOdds,
+        consensus,
+        spread,
+        personaCount: personas.length,
+    });
+    const gapPp = Math.abs((consensus - currentOdds) * 100);
+    if (gapPp > 8) {
+        log("info", {
+            source: "simulate",
+            event: "simulation_edge",
+            question,
+            currentOdds,
+            consensus,
+            gapPercentagePoints: parseFloat(gapPp.toFixed(1)),
+            direction: consensus > currentOdds ? "buy" : "sell",
+        });
+    }
+    return { consensus, spread, personas };
+}
+/**
+ * Returns true when both whale fade signal and simulation edge agree on the
+ * same direction (high-conviction combined signal).
+ */
+export function computeHighConfidenceEdge(whaleFade, simulationConsensus, currentOdds) {
+    if (!whaleFade || simulationConsensus === null)
+        return false;
+    const gapPp = Math.abs((simulationConsensus - currentOdds) * 100);
+    if (gapPp <= 8)
+        return false;
+    const simDirection = simulationConsensus > currentOdds ? "buy" : "sell";
+    return whaleFade.direction === simDirection;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=simulate.js.map

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package/dist/simulationSignal.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+export type SimulationSignal = 'DIRECTIONAL' | 'VOLATILITY' | 'PASS';
+export interface AgentEstimate {
+    agent: string;
+    prob: number;
+    reasoning: string;
+}
+export interface SimulationResult {
+    signal: SimulationSignal;
+    edge: number;
+    spread: number;
+    syntheticProb: number;
+    marketOdds: number;
+    agents: AgentEstimate[];
+    timestamp: number;
+}
+export interface SimulationTrigger {
+    type: 'scheduled' | 'whale' | 'odds_delta';
+    marketId: string;
+    marketQuestion: string;
+    marketOdds: number;
+    volume: number;
+    hoursToResolution: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Runs the 4-agent debate and returns a SimulationResult.
+ */
+export declare function runSimulation(trigger: SimulationTrigger): Promise<SimulationResult>;
+/**
+ * Checks whether a market qualifies to run simulation.
+ * Requires volume > 250k and hoursToResolution > 24.
+ */
+export declare function shouldRunSimulation(volume: number, hoursToResolution: number): boolean;
+/**
+ * Adjusts Kelly fraction based on simulation result.
+ * Returns multiplier: 1.0 (DIRECTIONAL low-spread), 0.5 (high spread), 0.0 (VOLATILITY).
+ */
+export declare function kellyAdjustment(result: SimulationResult): number;
+/**
+ * Logs simulation result to the log system.
+ */
+export declare function logSimulationResult(result: SimulationResult, marketQuestion: string): void;
+//# sourceMappingURL=simulationSignal.d.ts.map

package/dist/simulationSignal.d.ts.map

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package/dist/simulationSignal.js

@@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
+// 4-agent async debate engine
+// Triggers: scheduled (4-6h) + whale trade + odds delta (7%)
+// Output: { signal: 'DIRECTIONAL'|'VOLATILITY'|'PASS', edge, spread, syntheticProb, agents }
+import { execFile } from "child_process";
+import { promisify } from "util";
+import { log } from "./logger.js";
+const execFileAsync = promisify(execFile);
+const AGENTS = [
+    {
+        name: 'Bull',
+        system: `You are an institutional investor and prediction market bull. You look for institutional flow, narrative momentum, structural tailwinds, convexity. You find reasons YES is underpriced. Output: P(YES)=0.XX | Bull: [2 sentences]`,
+    },
+    {
+        name: 'Bear',
+        system: `You are a contrarian focused on retail participation decay. You track volume trends, whale vs retail mix, thin liquidity masking, post-hype base rates. You find reasons YES is overpriced. Output: P(YES)=0.XX | Bear: [2 sentences]`,
+    },
+    {
+        name: 'Regulator',
+        system: `You analyze from institutional power structure lens. What do regulatory bodies want? Who benefits from YES vs NO? You weight regulatory incentives heavily. Output: P(YES)=0.XX | Regulator: [2 sentences]`,
+    },
+    {
+        name: 'Contrarian',
+        system: `You are a professional contrarian. Markets overshoot on news, undershoot on slow change. You fade current consensus. Above 75%? Find the break narrative. Below 25%? Find the flip catalyst. Output: P(YES)=0.XX | Contrarian: [2 sentences]`,
+    },
+];
+function parseAgentResponse(agentName, text) {
+    const match = text.match(/P\(YES\)=(\d+\.?\d*)/i);
+    const prob = match ? Math.max(0, Math.min(1, parseFloat(match[1]))) : 0.5;
+    // Extract reasoning: everything after the pipe separator
+    const pipeIdx = text.indexOf('|');
+    const reasoning = pipeIdx >= 0 ? text.slice(pipeIdx + 1).trim() : text.trim();
+    return { agent: agentName, prob, reasoning };
+}
+async function runAgent(agent, question, marketOdds) {
+    const prompt = `${agent.system}
+
+Prediction market question: "${question}"
+Current market price: ${(marketOdds * 100).toFixed(1)}% YES
+
+Provide your probability estimate and reasoning.`;
+    try {
+        const { stdout } = await execFileAsync("claude", ["--print", "--model", "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", prompt], {
+            timeout: 15000,
+            env: {
+                ...process.env,
+                CLAUDE_CODE_OAUTH_TOKEN: process.env.CLAUDE_CODE_OAUTH_TOKEN ?? '',
+                ANTHROPIC_AUTH_TOKEN: process.env.ANTHROPIC_AUTH_TOKEN ??
+                    process.env.CLAUDE_CODE_OAUTH_TOKEN ??
+                    '',
+            },
+        });
+        return parseAgentResponse(agent.name, stdout.trim());
+    }
+    catch {
+        return { agent: agent.name, prob: 0.5, reasoning: 'Agent failed — using fallback probability.' };
+    }
+}
+function computeMedian(values) {
+    if (values.length === 0)
+        return 0.5;
+    const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+    const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2);
+    return sorted.length % 2 === 0
+        ? (sorted[mid - 1] + sorted[mid]) / 2
+        : sorted[mid];
+}
+function classifySignal(edge, spread) {
+    if (spread > 0.30)
+        return 'VOLATILITY';
+    if (Math.abs(edge) > 0.10 && spread < 0.20)
+        return 'DIRECTIONAL';
+    return 'PASS';
+}
+/**
+ * Runs the 4-agent debate and returns a SimulationResult.
+ */
+export async function runSimulation(trigger) {
+    const agents = await Promise.all(AGENTS.map((a) => runAgent(a, trigger.marketQuestion, trigger.marketOdds)));
+    const probs = agents.map((a) => a.prob);
+    const syntheticProb = computeMedian(probs);
+    const spread = Math.max(...probs) - Math.min(...probs);
+    const edge = syntheticProb - trigger.marketOdds;
+    const signal = classifySignal(edge, spread);
+    const result = {
+        signal,
+        edge,
+        spread,
+        syntheticProb,
+        marketOdds: trigger.marketOdds,
+        agents,
+        timestamp: Date.now(),
+    };
+    log("info", {
+        source: "simulationSignal",
+        event: "simulation_complete",
+        triggerType: trigger.type,
+        marketId: trigger.marketId,
+        question: trigger.marketQuestion,
+        signal,
+        edge: parseFloat((edge * 100).toFixed(2)),
+        spread: parseFloat((spread * 100).toFixed(2)),
+        syntheticProb: parseFloat(syntheticProb.toFixed(4)),
+        marketOdds: trigger.marketOdds,
+    });
+    return result;
+}
+/**
+ * Checks whether a market qualifies to run simulation.
+ * Requires volume > 250k and hoursToResolution > 24.
+ */
+export function shouldRunSimulation(volume, hoursToResolution) {
+    return volume > 250_000 && hoursToResolution > 24;
+}
+/**
+ * Adjusts Kelly fraction based on simulation result.
+ * Returns multiplier: 1.0 (DIRECTIONAL low-spread), 0.5 (high spread), 0.0 (VOLATILITY).
+ */
+export function kellyAdjustment(result) {
+    if (result.signal === 'VOLATILITY')
+        return 0.0;
+    if (result.spread >= 0.20)
+        return 0.5;
+    return 1.0;
+}
+/**
+ * Logs simulation result to the log system.
+ */
+export function logSimulationResult(result, marketQuestion) {
+    log("info", {
+        source: "simulationSignal",
+        event: "simulation_result",
+        marketQuestion,
+        signal: result.signal,
+        edge: parseFloat((result.edge * 100).toFixed(2)),
+        spread: parseFloat((result.spread * 100).toFixed(2)),
+        syntheticProb: parseFloat(result.syntheticProb.toFixed(4)),
+        marketOdds: result.marketOdds,
+        agents: result.agents.map((a) => ({
+            agent: a.agent,
+            prob: parseFloat(a.prob.toFixed(4)),
+            reasoning: a.reasoning,
+        })),
+        timestamp: result.timestamp,
+    });
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=simulationSignal.js.map

package/dist/simulationSignal.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@gonzih/polymarket-arb",
-  "version": "1.0.6",
+  "version": "1.0.8",
   "description": "Claude-powered Polymarket arbitrage bot — BTC/ETH momentum signal + AI trade analysis",
   "keywords": [
     "polymarket",
@@ -31,7 +31,8 @@
     "test": "vitest run",
     "test:watch": "vitest",
     "test:coverage": "vitest run --coverage",
-    "test:integration": "vitest run --config vitest.integration.config.ts"
+    "test:integration": "vitest run --config vitest.integration.config.ts",
+    "backtest": "tsx src/backtestRunner.ts"
   },
   "engines": {
     "node": ">=18.0.0"