@fuzdev/fuz_gitops 0.72.0 → 0.74.0

package/src/lib/multi_repo_publisher.ts

@@ -5,16 +5,16 @@ import {styleText as st} from 'node:util';
 
 import type {LocalRepo} from './local_repo.js';
 import {update_package_json, type VersionStrategy} from './dependency_updater.js';
-import {validate_dependency_graph} from './graph_validation.js';
+import {
+	generate_publishing_plan,
+	type VersionChange,
+	type DependencyUpdate,
+	type PublishingPlan,
+} from './publishing_plan.js';
 import type {PreflightOptions} from './preflight_checks.js';
-import {needs_update, is_breaking_change, detect_bump_type} from './version_utils.js';
 import type {GitopsOperations} from './operations.js';
 import {default_gitops_operations} from './operations_defaults.js';
-import {
-	GITOPS_MAX_ITERATIONS_DEFAULT,
-	GITOPS_NPM_WAIT_TIMEOUT_DEFAULT,
-} from './gitops_constants.js';
-import {install_with_cache_healing} from './npm_install_helpers.js';
+import {GITOPS_NPM_WAIT_TIMEOUT_DEFAULT} from './gitops_constants.js';
 import {
 	type PublishingEvent,
 	type PublishingRunSummary,
@@ -28,11 +28,9 @@ import {
 
 export interface PublishingOptions {
 	wetrun: boolean;
-	update_deps: boolean;
 	version_strategy?: VersionStrategy;
 	deploy?: boolean;
 	max_wait?: number;
-	skip_install?: boolean;
 	log?: Logger;
 	ops?: GitopsOperations;
 	/** Structured event sink; defaults to capture-only (events surface on the result). */
@@ -58,14 +56,48 @@ export interface PublishingResult {
 	events: Array<PublishingEvent>;
 	/** Tallied outcome, derived from `events`. */
 	summary: PublishingRunSummary;
+	/** Plan errors that blocked (wetrun) or would block (dry run) publishing; empty when clean. */
+	plan_errors: Array<string>;
+	/** Non-blocking plan warnings (e.g. the fixed-point iteration limit). */
+	plan_warnings: Array<string>;
 }
 
 export const publish_repos = async (
 	repos: Array<LocalRepo>,
 	options: PublishingOptions,
+): Promise<PublishingResult> => {
+	const {log, ops = default_gitops_operations} = options;
+	// Convenience entry: generate the plan, then execute it. Callers that already hold a
+	// plan (e.g. to display and confirm it first) call `execute_publishing_plan` directly,
+	// so the plan is generated exactly once per command.
+	const plan = await generate_publishing_plan(repos, {log, ops: ops.changeset});
+	return execute_publishing_plan(repos, plan, options);
+};
+
+/**
+ * Executes a frozen publishing plan in a single linear pass — the "dumb executor" half of
+ * the zap model. The plan is the single source of truth; this re-derives nothing.
+ *
+ * Fails loud when the plan couldn't be fully computed (`plan.errors`): a wetrun aborts
+ * before any side effect, a dry run still reports the partial cascade but returns
+ * `ok: false`. This is the single error gate — `--no-plan` can't bypass it.
+ */
+export const execute_publishing_plan = async (
+	repos: Array<LocalRepo>,
+	plan: PublishingPlan,
+	options: PublishingOptions,
 ): Promise<PublishingResult> => {
 	const start_time = Date.now();
-	const {wetrun, update_deps, log, ops = default_gitops_operations} = options;
+	const {wetrun, log, ops = default_gitops_operations} = options;
+
+	// Fail loud on an incomplete plan. Executing one with errors would silently skip the
+	// affected packages. A wetrun aborts before touching npm or git; a dry run proceeds
+	// (no side effects) but the result is not ok (see the summary below).
+	if (wetrun && plan.errors.length > 0) {
+		throw new TaskError(
+			`Cannot publish — the plan has ${plan.errors.length} error(s):\n  ${plan.errors.join('\n  ')}`,
+		);
+	}
 
 	// Capture every event for the result; also forward to the caller's sink if provided.
 	const capture = capture_handler();
@@ -97,309 +129,243 @@ export const publish_repos = async (
 		log?.info('⏭️  Skipping preflight checks (dry run)');
 	}
 
-	// Build dependency graph and validate
-	const {publishing_order: order} = validate_dependency_graph(repos, {
-		log,
-		throw_on_prod_cycles: true,
-		log_cycles: true,
-		log_order: true,
-	});
+	// The plan already validated the dependency graph and resolved the full cascade
+	// (explicit changesets, bump escalations, and auto-generated changesets) — execute its
+	// frozen topological order directly, re-deriving nothing.
+	const order = plan.publishing_order;
+	const plan_changes: Map<string, VersionChange> = new Map(
+		plan.version_changes.map((vc) => [vc.package_name, vc]),
+	);
+	if (order.length > 0) {
+		log?.info(`  Publishing order: ${order.join(' → ')}`);
+	}
 
 	emit({event: 'run_started', wetrun, total: order.length});
 
 	const published: Map<string, PublishedVersion> = new Map();
 	const failed: Map<string, Error> = new Map();
 	const changed_repos: Set<string> = new Set(); // Track repos with any changes for selective deployment
-	const skipped_packages: Set<string> = new Set(); // dedupe the package_skipped event across iterations
-
-	// Fixed-point iteration: keep publishing until no new changesets are created
-	// This handles transitive dependency updates (auto-generated changesets)
-	let iteration = 0;
-	let converged = false;
-
-	while (!converged && iteration < GITOPS_MAX_ITERATIONS_DEFAULT) {
-		iteration++;
-		emit({event: 'iteration_started', iteration, max: GITOPS_MAX_ITERATIONS_DEFAULT});
-		log?.info(
-			st(
-				'cyan',
-				`\n🚀 ${wetrun ? 'Publishing' : 'Dry run'} iteration ${iteration}/${GITOPS_MAX_ITERATIONS_DEFAULT}...\n`,
-			),
-		);
-
-		// Track if any packages were published in this iteration
-		let published_in_iteration = false;
-		let published_count = 0;
-
-		// Track repos changed in THIS iteration only (for batch install)
-		const changed_in_iteration: Set<string> = new Set();
-
-		// Phase 1: Publish each package and immediately update dependents
-		for (let i = 0; i < order.length; i++) {
-			const pkg_name = order[i]!;
-			const repo = repos.find((r) => r.library.name === pkg_name);
-			if (!repo) continue;
+	// Name → repo index, built once to avoid repeated linear scans of `repos`.
+	const repo_by_name: Map<string, LocalRepo> = new Map(repos.map((r) => [r.library.name, r]));
+
+	log?.info(st('cyan', `\n🚀 ${wetrun ? 'Publishing' : 'Dry run'}...\n`));
+
+	// Phase 1: one linear pass over the plan's topological order. The plan already
+	// resolved the full cascade, and publishing a package immediately rewrites every
+	// dependent's package.json and creates its auto-changeset — so by the time the pass
+	// reaches any package, all its dependencies have published and its changeset exists.
+	// No fixed-point loop is needed: a single pass converges by construction.
+	for (let i = 0; i < order.length; i++) {
+		const pkg_name = order[i]!;
+		const planned = plan_changes.get(pkg_name);
+
+		// Not in the plan = no changesets and no dependency updates = nothing to publish.
+		if (!planned) {
+			emit({event: 'package_skipped', name: pkg_name, reason: 'no changesets'});
+			log?.info(st('yellow', `  ⚠️  Skipping ${pkg_name} - no changesets`));
+			continue;
+		}
 
-			// Skip if already published in a previous iteration
-			if (published.has(pkg_name)) {
-				continue;
-			}
+		const repo = repo_by_name.get(pkg_name);
+		if (!repo) continue;
 
-			// Check for changesets (both dry and real runs)
-			const has_result = await ops.changeset.has_changesets({repo});
-			if (!has_result.ok) {
-				// Failed to check changesets
-				const err = new Error(`Failed to check changesets: ${has_result.message}`);
+		// An earlier publish may have rewritten this package's dependency ranges. No install is
+		// needed here: `gro publish` runs its own install (which self-heals npm's stale-cache
+		// ETARGET), so the package's freshly-rewritten deps are installed and healed as part of
+		// publishing it.
+		try {
+			// 1. Publish this package (real publish or dry-run prediction)
+			log?.info(
+				st(
+					'dim',
+					`  [${i + 1}/${order.length}] ${wetrun ? 'Publishing' : 'Would publish'} ${pkg_name}...`,
+				),
+			);
+			const version = await publish_single_repo(repo, options, ops, planned);
+
+			// Fail loud on drift: a real publish that lands a version the plan didn't predict
+			// is an invariant violation, not a routine failure. Abort and leave the dirty
+			// state in place — re-running re-plans from the current state (the just-published
+			// package no longer has changesets, so it drops out of the new plan).
+			if (wetrun && version.new_version !== planned.to) {
+				const err = new Error(
+					`Plan drift for ${pkg_name}: published ${version.new_version} but the plan predicted ${planned.to}. ` +
+						`Aborting — re-run 'gro gitops_publish --wetrun' to re-plan from the current state.`,
+				);
 				failed.set(pkg_name, err);
-				emit({event: 'package_failed', name: pkg_name, error: err.message, code: 'dependency'});
+				emit({event: 'package_failed', name: pkg_name, error: err.message, code: 'drift'});
 				log?.error(st('red', `  ❌ ${err.message}`));
 				break;
 			}
 
-			if (!has_result.value) {
-				// Skip packages without changesets
-				// In real publish: They might get auto-changesets during dependency updates
-				// In dry run: We can't simulate auto-changesets, so just skip
-				// Emit once per package — the loop revisits no-changeset packages each iteration
-				if (!skipped_packages.has(pkg_name)) {
-					skipped_packages.add(pkg_name);
-					emit({event: 'package_skipped', name: pkg_name, reason: 'no changesets'});
-				}
-				if (!wetrun) {
-					// Silent skip in dry run - plan shows which packages get auto-changesets
-					continue;
-				} else {
-					log?.info(st('yellow', `  ⚠️  Skipping ${pkg_name} - no changesets`));
-					continue;
-				}
-			}
+			published.set(pkg_name, version);
+			changed_repos.add(pkg_name); // Mark as changed for deployment
+			emit({
+				event: 'package_completed',
+				name: pkg_name,
+				old_version: version.old_version,
+				new_version: version.new_version,
+				bump_type: version.bump_type,
+				breaking: version.breaking,
+				commit: version.commit,
+				tag: version.tag,
+			});
+			log?.info(
+				wetrun
+					? st('green', `  ✅ Published ${pkg_name}@${version.new_version}`)
+					: st('cyan', `  ◇ Would publish ${pkg_name}@${version.new_version}`),
+			);
 
-			try {
-				// 1. Publish this package
-				log?.info(
-					st(
-						'dim',
-						`  [${i + 1}/${order.length}] ${wetrun ? 'Publishing' : 'Would publish'} ${pkg_name}...`,
-					),
-				);
-				const version = await publish_single_repo(repo, options, ops);
-				published.set(pkg_name, version);
-				changed_repos.add(pkg_name); // Mark as changed for deployment
-				// Note: don't add to changed_in_iteration - published packages don't need install
-				// (their dependencies didn't change, only their version)
-				published_in_iteration = true;
-				published_count++;
-				emit({
-					event: 'package_completed',
-					name: pkg_name,
-					old_version: version.old_version,
-					new_version: version.new_version,
-					bump_type: version.bump_type,
-					breaking: version.breaking,
-					commit: version.commit,
-					tag: version.tag,
+			if (wetrun) {
+				// 2. Wait for this package to be available on NPM
+				log?.info(`  ⏳ Waiting for ${pkg_name}@${version.new_version} on NPM...`);
+				const wait_result = await ops.npm.wait_for_package({
+					pkg: pkg_name,
+					version: version.new_version,
+					wait_options: {
+						max_attempts: 30,
+						initial_delay: 1000,
+						max_delay: 60000,
+						timeout: options.max_wait ?? GITOPS_NPM_WAIT_TIMEOUT_DEFAULT,
+					},
+					log,
 				});
-				log?.info(
-					wetrun
-						? st('green', `  ✅ Published ${pkg_name}@${version.new_version}`)
-						: st('cyan', `  ◇ Would publish ${pkg_name}@${version.new_version}`),
-				);
 
-				if (wetrun) {
-					// 2. Wait for this package to be available on NPM
-					log?.info(`  ⏳ Waiting for ${pkg_name}@${version.new_version} on NPM...`);
-					const wait_result = await ops.npm.wait_for_package({
-						pkg: pkg_name,
-						version: version.new_version,
-						wait_options: {
-							max_attempts: 30,
-							initial_delay: 1000,
-							max_delay: 60000,
-							timeout: options.max_wait ?? GITOPS_NPM_WAIT_TIMEOUT_DEFAULT,
-						},
-						log,
-					});
-
-					if (!wait_result.ok) {
-						// Handle inline (don't throw into the generic catch): the npm-wait failure
-						// carries a typed `timeout` signal, so we know this is a network failure
-						// without sniffing the message.
-						const err = new Error(
-							`Failed to wait for package: ${wait_result.message}${wait_result.timeout ? ' (timeout)' : ''}`,
-						);
-						failed.set(pkg_name, err);
-						emit({event: 'package_failed', name: pkg_name, error: err.message, code: 'network'});
-						log?.error(st('red', `  ❌ Failed to publish ${pkg_name}: ${err.message}`));
-						break; // fail fast
+				if (!wait_result.ok) {
+					// Handle inline (don't throw into the generic catch): the npm-wait failure
+					// carries a typed `timeout` signal, so we know this is a network failure
+					// without sniffing the message.
+					const err = new Error(
+						`Failed to wait for package: ${wait_result.message}${wait_result.timeout ? ' (timeout)' : ''}`,
+					);
+					failed.set(pkg_name, err);
+					emit({event: 'package_failed', name: pkg_name, error: err.message, code: 'network'});
+					log?.error(st('red', `  ❌ Failed to publish ${pkg_name}: ${err.message}`));
+					break; // fail fast
+				}
+				emit({event: 'npm_waited', name: pkg_name, version: version.new_version});
+
+				// 3. Update every dependent the plan says has a prod/peer dep on this package.
+				// This rewrites their package.json ranges and creates their auto-changeset,
+				// which a later step of this same pass publishes. The dependent is queued for
+				// a single install just before it publishes (see the top of the loop).
+				const dependent_updates = group_dependency_updates(
+					plan.dependency_updates,
+					published,
+					(update) =>
+						update.updated_dependency === pkg_name &&
+						(update.type === 'dependencies' || update.type === 'peerDependencies'),
+				);
+				for (const [dependent_name, updates] of dependent_updates) {
+					const dependent_repo = repo_by_name.get(dependent_name);
+					if (!dependent_repo) continue;
+					// A dependent republishes iff the plan gave it a version change. Private packages
+					// are excluded from the plan's version changes, so they take the update-only-leaf
+					// path: rewrite + commit their dependency ranges with NO changeset and NO
+					// publish/npm-wait. Publishable dependents get an auto-changeset and republish in
+					// turn — `gro publish` installs + heals their rewritten deps when it reaches them.
+					const republishes = plan_changes.has(dependent_name);
+					for (const [dep_name, dep_version] of updates) {
+						log?.info(`    Updating ${dependent_name}'s dependency on ${dep_name}`);
+						emit({
+							event: 'dependency_updated',
+							dependent: dependent_name,
+							dependency: dep_name,
+							version: dep_version,
+							dep_type: dependency_update_type(plan, dependent_name, dep_name),
+							creates_changeset: republishes,
+						});
 					}
-
-					// 3. Update all repos that have prod/peer deps on this package
-					if (update_deps) {
-						for (const dependent_repo of repos) {
-							const updates: Map<string, string> = new Map();
-
-							// Check prod dependencies
-							if (dependent_repo.dependencies?.has(pkg_name)) {
-								const current = dependent_repo.dependencies.get(pkg_name)!;
-								if (needs_update(current, version.new_version)) {
-									updates.set(pkg_name, version.new_version);
-								}
-							}
-
-							// Check peer dependencies
-							if (dependent_repo.peer_dependencies?.has(pkg_name)) {
-								const current = dependent_repo.peer_dependencies.get(pkg_name)!;
-								if (needs_update(current, version.new_version)) {
-									updates.set(pkg_name, version.new_version);
-								}
-							}
-
-							// Apply updates if any
-							if (updates.size > 0) {
-								log?.info(
-									`    Updating ${dependent_repo.library.name}'s dependency on ${pkg_name}`,
-								);
-								emit({
-									event: 'dependency_updated',
-									dependent: dependent_repo.library.name,
-									dependency: pkg_name,
-									version: version.new_version,
-								});
-								changed_repos.add(dependent_repo.library.name); // Mark as changed for deployment
-								changed_in_iteration.add(dependent_repo.library.name); // Track for batch install
-								await update_package_json(dependent_repo, updates, {
-									strategy: options.version_strategy || 'caret',
-									published_versions: published,
-									log,
-									git_ops: ops.git,
-								});
-							}
-						}
+					changed_repos.add(dependent_name); // Mark as changed for deployment
+					if (republishes) {
+						await update_package_json(dependent_repo, updates, {
+							strategy: options.version_strategy || 'caret',
+							published_versions: published, // creates the auto-changeset
+							log,
+							git_ops: ops.git,
+							fs_ops: ops.fs,
+						});
+					} else {
+						// update-only leaf: rewrite ranges + commit, no changeset (it won't republish)
+						await update_package_json(dependent_repo, updates, {
+							strategy: options.version_strategy || 'caret',
+							log,
+							git_ops: ops.git,
+							fs_ops: ops.fs,
+						});
 					}
 				}
-			} catch (error) {
-				const err = error instanceof Error ? error : new Error(String(error));
-				failed.set(pkg_name, err);
-				emit({
-					event: 'package_failed',
-					name: pkg_name,
-					error: err.message,
-					// TODO: emit a precise code once the npm/process ops return typed errors —
-					// today a publish-step cause lives in unstructured stderr, so use the honest
-					// coarse bucket rather than guessing 'auth'/'network'/'build' from the message.
-					code: 'publish',
-				});
-				log?.error(st('red', `  ❌ Failed to publish ${pkg_name}: ${err.message}`));
-				break; // Always fail fast on error
-			}
-		}
-
-		// Phase 1b: Batch install dependencies for repos with updated package.json
-		// This ensures workspace stays consistent before next iteration
-		if (wetrun && !options.skip_install && changed_in_iteration.size > 0) {
-			log?.info(st('cyan', '\n📦 Installing dependencies for updated repos...\n'));
-			for (const [name, err] of await install_repos(changed_in_iteration, repos, ops, emit, log)) {
-				failed.set(name, err);
 			}
+		} catch (error) {
+			const err = error instanceof Error ? error : new Error(String(error));
+			failed.set(pkg_name, err);
+			emit({
+				event: 'package_failed',
+				name: pkg_name,
+				error: err.message,
+				// TODO: emit a precise code once the npm/process ops return typed errors —
+				// today a publish-step cause lives in unstructured stderr, so use the honest
+				// coarse bucket rather than guessing 'auth'/'network'/'build' from the message.
+				code: 'publish',
+			});
+			log?.error(st('red', `  ❌ Failed to publish ${pkg_name}: ${err.message}`));
+			break; // Always fail fast on error
 		}
+	}
 
-		// Log iteration summary
-		if (published_count > 0) {
-			log?.info(
-				st(
-					'dim',
-					`\nIteration ${iteration}: ${published_count} package(s) ${wetrun ? 'published' : 'would be published'}\n`,
-				),
-			);
-		}
-
-		emit({
-			event: 'iteration_finished',
-			iteration,
-			published_count,
-			converged: !published_in_iteration,
-		});
-
-		// Check for convergence: no packages published in this iteration
-		if (!published_in_iteration) {
-			converged = true;
-			log?.info(
-				st(
-					'green',
-					wetrun
-						? `\n✓ Converged after ${iteration} iteration(s) - no new changesets\n`
-						: `\n✓ Dry run complete after ${iteration} iteration(s)\n`,
-				),
-			);
-		} else if (iteration === GITOPS_MAX_ITERATIONS_DEFAULT) {
-			// Count packages that still have changesets (not yet published)
-			const pending_count = order.length - published.size;
-			const estimated_iterations = Math.ceil(pending_count / 2); // Rough estimate
+	// Phase 2: Update all dev dependencies (can have cycles)
+	// Dev dep changes require deployment even without version bumps (rebuild needed).
+	// Sourced from the plan's dependency updates so the publisher derives nothing itself.
+	// Only package.json is rewritten + committed here — no install. These repos don't run
+	// `gro publish`; their `node_modules` is refreshed (and ETARGET-healed) by gro the next
+	// time they build/deploy/sync, so the executor never runs a bare `npm install` itself.
+	if (published.size > 0 && wetrun) {
+		const dev_updates_by_repo = group_dependency_updates(
+			plan.dependency_updates,
+			published,
+			(update) => update.type === 'devDependencies',
+		);
 
-			log?.warn(
-				st(
-					'yellow',
-					`\n⚠️  Reached maximum iterations (${GITOPS_MAX_ITERATIONS_DEFAULT}) without full convergence\n` +
-						`    ${pending_count} package(s) may still have changesets to process\n` +
-						`    Estimated ${estimated_iterations} more iteration(s) needed - run 'gro gitops_publish' again\n`,
-				),
-			);
+		if (dev_updates_by_repo.size > 0) {
+			log?.info(st('cyan', '\n🔄 Updating dev dependencies...\n'));
 		}
-	}
 
-	// Phase 2: Update all dev dependencies (can have cycles)
-	// Dev dep changes require deployment even without version bumps (rebuild needed)
-	const dev_updated_repos: Set<string> = new Set();
-	if (update_deps && published.size > 0 && wetrun) {
-		log?.info(st('cyan', '\n🔄 Updating dev dependencies...\n'));
-
-		for (const repo of repos) {
-			const dev_updates: Map<string, string> = new Map();
-
-			// Check dev dependencies only
-			if (repo.dev_dependencies) {
-				for (const [dep_name, current_version] of repo.dev_dependencies) {
-					const published_version = published.get(dep_name);
-					if (published_version && needs_update(current_version, published_version.new_version)) {
-						dev_updates.set(dep_name, published_version.new_version);
-					}
-				}
-			}
+		for (const [repo_name, dev_updates] of dev_updates_by_repo) {
+			const repo = repo_by_name.get(repo_name);
+			if (!repo) continue;
 
-			if (dev_updates.size > 0) {
-				log?.info(`  Updating ${dev_updates.size} dev dependencies in ${repo.library.name}`);
-				for (const [dep_name, dep_version] of dev_updates) {
-					emit({
-						event: 'dependency_updated',
-						dependent: repo.library.name,
-						dependency: dep_name,
-						version: dep_version,
-					});
-				}
-				changed_repos.add(repo.library.name); // Mark as changed for deployment
-				dev_updated_repos.add(repo.library.name); // Track for batch install
-				await update_package_json(repo, dev_updates, {
-					strategy: options.version_strategy || 'caret',
-					published_versions: published,
-					log,
-					git_ops: ops.git,
+			log?.info(`  Updating ${dev_updates.size} dev dependencies in ${repo_name}`);
+			for (const [dep_name, dep_version] of dev_updates) {
+				emit({
+					event: 'dependency_updated',
+					dependent: repo_name,
+					dependency: dep_name,
+					version: dep_version,
+					dep_type: 'dev',
+					creates_changeset: false, // dev-dep updates redeploy without republishing
 				});
 			}
-		}
-	}
-
-	// Phase 2b: Install dev dependencies for repos with dev dep updates
-	if (wetrun && !options.skip_install && dev_updated_repos.size > 0) {
-		log?.info(st('cyan', '\n📦 Installing dev dependencies for updated repos...\n'));
-		for (const [name, err] of await install_repos(dev_updated_repos, repos, ops, emit, log)) {
-			failed.set(name, err);
+			changed_repos.add(repo_name); // Mark as changed for deployment
+			// No `published_versions` here on purpose: a dev-dep bump updates and commits
+			// package.json but must NOT generate a changeset — dev-only changes redeploy
+			// (rebuild) without republishing, so they shouldn't bump the next release.
+			await update_package_json(repo, dev_updates, {
+				strategy: options.version_strategy || 'caret',
+				log,
+				git_ops: ops.git,
+				fs_ops: ops.fs,
+			});
 		}
 	}
 
 	// Phase 3: Deploy repos with changes (optional)
-	// Deploys only repos that were: published, had prod/peer deps updated, or had dev deps updated
+	// Deploys only repos that were: published, had prod/peer deps updated, or had dev deps updated.
+	// Iterate `changed_repos` (insertion order) rather than `repos` order so deploys run in
+	// dependency order — and so the `--preview` side-effect list matches this exactly.
 	if (options.deploy && wetrun) {
-		const repos_to_deploy = repos.filter((r) => changed_repos.has(r.library.name));
+		const repos_to_deploy = Array.from(changed_repos)
+			.map((name) => repo_by_name.get(name))
+			.filter((r): r is LocalRepo => r !== undefined);
 		log?.info(
 			st(
 				'cyan',
@@ -411,9 +377,12 @@ export const publish_repos = async (
 			try {
 				emit({event: 'deploy_started', name: repo.library.name});
 				log?.info(`  Deploying ${repo.library.name}...`);
+				// Build fresh (no --no-build): a deployed site bundles its dependencies, so it
+				// must be rebuilt against the versions this run just published — the preflight
+				// build ran against the old versions, before the cascade rewrote package.json.
 				const deploy_result = await ops.process.spawn({
 					cmd: 'gro',
-					args: ['deploy', '--no-build'],
+					args: ['deploy'],
 					cwd: repo.repo_dir,
 				});
 
@@ -434,7 +403,7 @@ export const publish_repos = async (
 
 	// Summary
 	const duration = Date.now() - start_time;
-	const ok = failed.size === 0;
+	const ok = failed.size === 0 && plan.errors.length === 0;
 	const summary = summarize_events(capture.events, duration);
 
 	log?.info(st('cyan', `\n📋 ${wetrun ? 'Publishing' : 'Dry Run'} Summary\n`));
@@ -444,15 +413,32 @@ export const publish_repos = async (
 		log?.info(`  Failed: ${failed.size} packages`);
 	}
 
+	// Surface plan diagnostics (a wetrun with errors threw above; this is mainly the dry run
+	// and non-blocking warnings) so an audit of the cascade sees them.
+	if (plan.warnings.length > 0) {
+		log?.warn(st('yellow', `  ⚠️  Plan warnings: ${plan.warnings.length}`));
+		for (const warning of plan.warnings) log?.warn(st('yellow', `     - ${warning}`));
+	}
+	if (plan.errors.length > 0) {
+		log?.error(st('red', `  ❌ Plan errors: ${plan.errors.length}`));
+		for (const plan_error of plan.errors) log?.error(st('red', `     - ${plan_error}`));
+	}
+
 	if (ok) {
-		log?.info(
-			st(
-				'green',
-				wetrun
-					? '\n✨ All packages published successfully!\n'
-					: `\n✨ Dry run complete — ${published.size} package(s) would be published. Re-run with --wetrun to publish.\n`,
-			),
-		);
+		if (wetrun) {
+			log?.info(st('green', '\n✨ All packages published successfully!\n'));
+		} else {
+			log?.info(
+				st(
+					'green',
+					`\n✨ Dry run complete — ${published.size} package(s) would be published. Re-run with --wetrun to publish.`,
+				),
+			);
+			// The dry run is driven by the same plan as `gro gitops_plan`, so this
+			// count includes bump escalations and auto-generated changesets — it
+			// matches `gro gitops_plan` exactly (the full cascade).
+			log?.info(st('dim', 'This matches `gro gitops_plan` (the full cascade).\n'));
+		}
 	} else {
 		log?.error(
 			st(
@@ -473,52 +459,41 @@ export const publish_repos = async (
 		duration,
 		events: capture.events,
 		summary,
+		plan_errors: plan.errors,
+		plan_warnings: plan.warnings,
 	};
 };
 
 /**
  * Publishes a single repo using `gro publish`.
  *
- * Dry run mode: Predicts version from changesets without side effects.
- * Real mode: Runs `gro publish --no-build` (builds already validated in preflight),
- * reads new version from `package.json`, and returns metadata.
+ * Dry run mode: reports the precomputed plan entry without side effects.
+ * Real mode: runs `gro publish --no-build` (builds already validated in preflight),
+ * reads the new version from `package.json`, and returns it alongside the plan's
+ * predicted bump metadata. The caller compares the read-back version to the plan to
+ * detect drift.
  *
- * @throws {Error} if changeset prediction fails (dry run) or publish fails (real)
+ * @throws {Error} if the publish, version read-back, or commit-hash lookup fails
  */
 const publish_single_repo = async (
 	repo: LocalRepo,
 	options: PublishingOptions,
-	ops: GitopsOperations = default_gitops_operations,
+	ops: GitopsOperations,
+	planned: VersionChange,
 ): Promise<PublishedVersion> => {
-	const {wetrun, log} = options;
-
-	const old_version = repo.library.package_json.version || '0.0.0';
+	const {wetrun} = options;
 
 	if (!wetrun) {
-		// In dry run, predict version from changesets
-		const prediction = await ops.changeset.predict_next_version({repo, log});
-
-		if (!prediction) {
-			// No changesets found, skip this repo
-			throw new Error(`No changesets found for ${repo.library.name}`);
-		}
-
-		if (!prediction.ok) {
-			// Error reading changesets
-			throw new Error(`Failed to predict version: ${prediction.message}`);
-		}
-
-		const {version: new_version, bump_type} = prediction;
-		const breaking = is_breaking_change(old_version, bump_type);
-
+		// Dry run reports the precomputed plan — the single source of truth for the
+		// cascade (explicit changesets, bump escalations, and auto-generated changesets).
 		return {
 			name: repo.library.name,
-			old_version,
-			new_version,
-			bump_type,
-			breaking,
+			old_version: planned.from,
+			new_version: planned.to,
+			bump_type: planned.bump_type,
+			breaking: planned.breaking,
 			commit: 'simulated',
-			tag: `v${new_version}`,
+			tag: `v${planned.to}`,
 		};
 	}
 
@@ -544,10 +519,6 @@ const publish_single_repo = async (
 	const package_json = JSON.parse(content_result.value);
 	const new_version = package_json.version;
 
-	// Determine bump type and if it's breaking
-	const bump_type = detect_bump_type(old_version, new_version);
-	const breaking = is_breaking_change(old_version, bump_type);
-
 	// Get actual commit hash
 	const commit_result = await ops.git.current_commit_hash({cwd: repo.repo_dir});
 
@@ -557,46 +528,58 @@ const publish_single_repo = async (
 
 	const commit = commit_result.value;
 
+	// Bump metadata comes from the plan (the single source of truth); the caller
+	// fail-louds if `new_version` diverges from the plan's prediction.
 	return {
 		name: repo.library.name,
-		old_version,
+		old_version: planned.from,
 		new_version,
-		bump_type,
-		breaking,
+		bump_type: planned.bump_type,
+		breaking: planned.breaking,
 		commit,
 		tag: `v${new_version}`,
 	};
 };
 
 /**
- * Installs dependencies for each named repo (with cache healing), emitting install
- * events and logging progress. A failed install doesn't stop the batch — failures are
- * collected and returned so the caller can fold them into the run's failures.
+ * Groups dependency updates by dependent package — `dependent → (dependency → new
+ * version)`, the shape `update_package_json` consumes. Restricted by `predicate` (e.g.
+ * prod/peer for a given package, or all dev deps) and to dependencies that actually
+ * published this run, so a failed/aborted publish never propagates to its dependents.
  */
-const install_repos = async (
-	names: Iterable<string>,
-	repos: Array<LocalRepo>,
-	ops: GitopsOperations,
-	emit: (event: PublishingEvent) => void,
-	log?: Logger,
-): Promise<Map<string, Error>> => {
-	const failures: Map<string, Error> = new Map();
-	for (const name of names) {
-		const repo = repos.find((r) => r.library.name === name);
-		if (!repo) continue;
-		try {
-			emit({event: 'install_started', name});
-			log?.info(`  Installing ${name}...`);
-			await install_with_cache_healing(repo, ops, log);
-			emit({event: 'install_completed', name});
-			log?.info(st('green', `  ✅ Installed ${name}`));
-		} catch (error) {
-			const err = error instanceof Error ? error : new Error(String(error));
-			failures.set(name, err);
-			emit({event: 'install_failed', name, error: err.message});
-			log?.error(st('red', `  ❌ Failed to install ${name}: ${err.message}`));
-			// continue with other installs instead of breaking
+export const group_dependency_updates = (
+	updates: Array<DependencyUpdate>,
+	published: Map<string, PublishedVersion>,
+	predicate: (update: DependencyUpdate) => boolean,
+): Map<string, Map<string, string>> => {
+	const by_repo: Map<string, Map<string, string>> = new Map();
+	for (const update of updates) {
+		if (!predicate(update)) continue;
+		const published_dep = published.get(update.updated_dependency);
+		if (!published_dep) continue;
+		let repo_updates = by_repo.get(update.dependent_package);
+		if (!repo_updates) {
+			repo_updates = new Map();
+			by_repo.set(update.dependent_package, repo_updates);
 		}
+		repo_updates.set(update.updated_dependency, published_dep.new_version);
 	}
-	return failures;
+	return by_repo;
 };
+
+/** The dep_type tag for a prod/peer dependency-update event — `peer` if the edge is a peer
+ * dependency, else `prod`. Mirrors `derive_publish_steps`' classification so the executor's
+ * event stream and the preview agree. */
+const dependency_update_type = (
+	plan: PublishingPlan,
+	dependent: string,
+	dependency: string,
+): 'prod' | 'peer' =>
+	plan.dependency_updates.some(
+		(u) =>
+			u.dependent_package === dependent &&
+			u.updated_dependency === dependency &&
+			u.type === 'peerDependencies',
+	)
+		? 'peer'
+		: 'prod';