@event4u/agent-config 14.6.0 → 14.7.0

package/docs/guidelines/agent-infra/context-hygiene-mechanics.md

@@ -88,3 +88,29 @@ Exit code is always 0 — hooks must never block the agent loop.
 
 - `context-hygiene` (rule) — thresholds, 3-failure rule, tool-loop cap, read-loop Iron Law.
 - `systematic-debugging` § Debug micro-loop — the one-test-one-fix-one-rerun procedure.
+
+## The CI waiter — use the helper, never the hand-written loop
+
+`./scripts-run src/scripts/ci_settle <pr> [--timeout-min N] [--interval-sec N]`
+
+Exit codes: **0** settled green · **1** settled red, with the failing checks
+named · **2** did not settle, or the API could not be read — never a verdict.
+
+Four states classify as *not settled*, and each one is a way the hand-written
+form goes wrong: an API error, a non-zero `gh` exit, unparseable output, and
+**zero registered checks** (a run that has not registered its checks yet looks
+exactly like a finished one with nothing to report).
+
+**Why it exists.** Measured 2026-08-20:
+
+```bash
+until ! gh pr checks 1459 | grep -q "pending"; do sleep 60; done
+```
+
+The API then failed. Its error text — `error connecting to api.github.com` —
+contains no `pending`, so the loop exited, the session reported a settle that
+had not happened, and the claim had to be retracted to the user in the next
+reply. The bug is not the sleep or the grep: **absence of the word `pending`
+was treated as evidence of completion**, and an error is neither settled nor
+pending. The exit condition is the part that is easy to get wrong, so it lives
+in one place rather than in every agent's head.

package/docs/guidelines/agent-infra/memory-access.md

@@ -8,6 +8,23 @@ abstraction backed by `scripts/memory_lookup.ts` (TypeScript, run via
 tsx). It reads curated YAML under `agents/memory/<type>/` and the
 agent-written `agents/memory/intake/*.jsonl` signal log.
 
+## Index by the moment, not only by the topic
+
+Every entry answers **"what was I about to do when this would have helped"** — a
+verb and its object (`author a roadmap`, `wait on CI`, `push a branch`, `edit a
+markdown section with a script`) — and the index carries a trigger-moment
+section keyed on those verbs beside the topic grouping.
+
+A store indexed only by subject is an index for *browsing*, and browsing is not
+the failure mode: an agent does not go looking for a trap it does not know
+exists. Measured 2026-08-20 on one instrumented session — of eleven error
+classes, **nine already had an entry** and all nine were read *after* the
+failure. The deficit was delivery, not knowledge.
+
+Writing the trigger key is part of writing the entry. A second index maintained
+separately from the entries rots, and a rotted index is worse than none because
+it still looks authoritative.
+
 ## The contract
 
 Consumers reach it via the CLI (`agent-config memory:lookup`) or the

package/docs/guidelines/agent-infra/recurring-criticism-mechanics.md

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Recurring-criticism mechanics
+
+> Depth for the `recurring-criticism` rule — the past-disposition store list, the mechanism-is-the-defect classification, the hardening floor, and the failure-mode catalog.
+
+_No YAML frontmatter, deliberately: every other guideline under `docs/guidelines/`
+is frontmatter-less, and a `name:` key here makes the two MCP resource loaders
+derive different URIs for the same file — one from the key
+(`guideline://recurring-criticism-mechanics`), one from the path
+(`guideline://agent-infra/recurring-criticism-mechanics`). That is a
+`mcp_parity_smoke` drift, and it only surfaces once `dist/cli/agent-config.js`
+is built, so the local suite passes and CI does not._
+
+Depth for [`recurring-criticism`](../../../src/rules/recurring-criticism.md). The
+rule carries the obligation; this carries the lookup addresses and the reasoning
+that would otherwise be paid in every session — that rule is phrase-triggered, and
+a phrase-triggered rule is unconditionally loaded on Claude (the emitter writes no
+`paths:` when any non-path trigger is present), so every line in it is a line every
+session pays for. This file is read on demand.
+
+## Look it up before re-deriving it
+
+Without a mechanism that forces a reference to the earlier disposition, every
+recurrence becomes a fresh investigation even where the answer already exists
+<!-- harvest:forced-lookup-of-past-root-causes -->. The stores are fragmented and
+only partly queryable, so **name which one you checked**:
+
+| Store | Path | Queryable? |
+|---|---|---|
+| ADRs + index | `docs/decisions/` + `INDEX.md`, via `adr_cite_check <ADR-NNN>` | yes — status, `review_trigger` state, successors |
+| Estate / activation / low-impact dispositions | `agents/decisions/*.yml`, `agents/decisions/low-impact-decisions.md` | yes, closed vocabularies |
+| Roadmap dispositions | `agents/roadmaps/{archive,skipped,later}/` | `later/` only; `skipped/` carries its reason as header prose |
+| Curated memory | `agents/memory/*.yml` | yes |
+| Analysis documents | `agents/evidence/analysis/` | grep only |
+| Harvest / borrow ledgers | `provenance/*.jsonl` | yes, but `adopt`/`adapt` only |
+
+**Rejections are the weak spot, and by design.** `provenance/README.md` states that
+a `reject` verdict lives in the analysis document rather than a ledger, because
+nothing in the tree cites it. So "I found nothing" here means *unstructured prose
+was grepped*, never *nothing was decided*. Say which of the two you mean — the
+difference decides whether the recurrence is new information or a lookup failure.
+
+## The mechanism is the candidate defect, not the item
+
+Classify what was missing before choosing an artefact — the taxonomy in
+[`skill-improvement-pipeline`](../../../src/skills/skill-improvement-pipeline/SKILL.md)
+§ Classify the missing component (instruction · source-of-truth · tool · validator ·
+permission · sandbox · evaluation · recovery-path) is the one to use, because "add
+another rule" is the answer that feels right and is usually wrong.
+
+Then land the learning where it **constrains** the next run, per
+[`learning-to-rule-or-skill`](../../../src/skills/learning-to-rule-or-skill/SKILL.md).
+A lesson that does not narrow the next attempt produces thrashing rather than
+convergence <!-- harvest:unconstraining-lesson-thrashes -->; a learning that lives
+only in a reply is not a learning, it is a note.
+
+**Third recurrence of the same class escalates to structure** —
+[`decision-review`](../../../src/skills/decision-review/SKILL.md) § Escalation owns
+the threshold, and its point is worth restating: a louder restatement of a rule the
+agent keeps missing is the one response already known not to work. At that point
+the choice is a deterministic gate or deletion, not more prose.
+
+## The hardening floor
+
+Self-improvement loops can regress the artefact they improve
+<!-- harvest:self-improvement-can-self-regress -->. Two consequences:
+
+- A hardening change carries the **same evidence bar** as any other change. "We
+  learned something" is not a licence, and a mechanism proposed in response to a
+  recurrence still needs a measured false-positive rate before it becomes CI.
+- It never arrives as a **weakened** gate, a widened allowlist, a lifted Hard
+  Floor, or a loosened ratchet. If the only available hardening lowers a floor, the
+  recurrence escalates to the owner instead — that transition is owner-reserved per
+  [`decision-revisit-gate`](../../../src/rules/decision-revisit-gate.md) § Who
+  decides.
+
+## Failure modes
+
+- **Resolving on the count.** "You have said it three times, so you are right" is
+  the sycophancy failure with a procedure attached. The count opens the question.
+- **Resolving on the count, inverted.** "It is only the second time, so the old
+  call stands" — the repetition still shifted the burden of proof.
+- **Naming no outcome.** A resolution that does not say which of the three applies
+  (decision wrong · never recorded · unreachable) has not resolved anything.
+- **Grepping prose and reporting absence.** See the rejection note above.
+- **Treating a resemblance as a recurrence.** Mechanism-match runs first; a new
+  complaint that tests a different mechanism is a new finding.
+- **Hardening the item instead of the mechanism.** Fixing the one instance leaves
+  the surface that dismissed it intact, which is what produces the fourth
+  recurrence.
+- **Writing the learning into the reply.** It has to land in an artefact.
+
+## See also
+
+- [`recurring-criticism`](../../../src/rules/recurring-criticism.md) — the obligation.
+- [`decision-revisit-gate`](../../../src/rules/decision-revisit-gate.md) — the other entrance (a lock blocking a change), the five steps, the owner-reserved table.
+- [`self-repair-loop`](../../../src/rules/self-repair-loop.md) — the single-occurrence intake and the `occurrences` counter this rule consumes.

package/package.json

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
     "name": "@event4u/agent-config",
     "mcpName": "io.github.event4u-app/agent-config",
-    "version": "14.6.0",
+    "version": "14.7.0",
     "description": "Governed skills, rules and commands for AI coding tools (Claude Code, Cursor, Windsurf, Copilot) — every claim machine-checked, including \"zero runtime daemon\".",
     "license": "MIT",
     "private": false,

package/src/agent-src/scripts/archival_sweep.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+/**
+ * Archival-sweep spawner for the roadmap dashboard.
+ *
+ * Split out of `update_roadmap_progress.ts` rather than authored there: that
+ * file sits at the 1500-line source ceiling `check_source_size_budget`
+ * ratchets, and the sweep plus its contract is the newest and most separable
+ * thing in it. The contract below is that text, moved intact.
+ *
+ * `--archive` (opt-in; wired into `task roadmap-progress` and
+ * `agent-config roadmap:progress`) runs the archival sweep before rendering
+ * instead of printing "Completed roadmaps not yet archived" and leaving the
+ * work to a human who has been ignoring the line for weeks. It is a flag rather
+ * than the default because the PostToolUse hook re-runs the WRITE path once per
+ * turn on every roadmap edit, and a hook that silently `git mv`s files mid-work
+ * is a bigger problem than the warning it would remove. `--check` never
+ * archives — see `run_archival_sweep`.
+ *
+ * WHY the warning existed at all, since this is the one place a reader of the
+ * flag will look: the sweep's own default is `--changed-only`, so a PR archives
+ * exactly the roadmaps it completed. A roadmap completed by a PR whose sweep did
+ * not run is then complete, on the trunk, and OUTSIDE every later branch's
+ * history — no `--changed-only` sweep finds it again. Measured 2026-08-20: six
+ * such roadmaps, with every regen reprinting the warning at whoever ran it.
+ * `/create-pr` § 1c keeps `--changed-only`; repo-wide reconciliation is this
+ * flag's job and nothing else's.
+ *
+ * This layout is deliberate rather than convenient: the prose homes for it are
+ * both at their ceilings (`roadmap-progress-mechanics.md` sits 122 chars under
+ * the 16,000-char depth ceiling, and `roadmap-management/SKILL.md` tips
+ * `skill_too_large` on any prose block), so the contract lives with the code it
+ * governs. Moving it out means making room first.
+ *
+ * AI council 2026-08-20 (anthropic + openai, blind peer review): both seats
+ * converged on explicit opt-in + `--all` scope + hook archival-free, and both
+ * independently required the `--check` exclusion, the archive-before-render
+ * order, and that a failed sweep must not render. RECORDED DISSENT: one seat
+ * argued for flipping the sweep's own default to `--all` instead. Rejected —
+ * that makes every PR a potential estate-wide cleanup, which is exactly what
+ * `--changed-only` exists to prevent.
+ */
+
+import { spawnSync } from 'node:child_process';
+import * as fs from 'node:fs';
+import * as path from 'node:path';
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url';
+
+// Same directory as `update_roadmap_progress.ts`, so the `path.dirname` below
+// resolves the sweep script exactly as it did before the split.
+const _HERE = fileURLToPath(import.meta.url);
+
+function _isFile(p: string): boolean {
+    try {
+        return fs.statSync(p).isFile();
+    } catch {
+        return false;
+    }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Run the archival sweep for every complete roadmap, in-place.
+ *
+ * Spawned rather than imported: `archive_completed_roadmaps.ts` imports
+ * `collect` from `update_roadmap_progress.ts`, so a static import back would close a cycle, and
+ * `main()` is synchronous so a dynamic `await import()` is not available either.
+ * The sweep is the same twin `_regen_dashboard` already spawns in the other
+ * direction, so the spawn shape is the established one in this pair.
+ *
+ * No recursion: the sweep re-runs this script with NO flags, so its inner
+ * dashboard pass has archival off and terminates at depth 2.
+ *
+ * `--all`, not the sweep's `--changed-only` default. The default exists so a PR
+ * archives exactly the roadmaps it completed; here the caller asked the
+ * repo-wide dashboard to reconcile the estate, and the roadmaps that leak are
+ * by construction the ones NOT in this branch's history — six had accumulated
+ * on the trunk while the warning printed every regen. A roadmap the sweep
+ * refuses (open blockers) stays put and is still reported below.
+ */
+export function run_archival_sweep(root: string): SweepResult {
+    const script = path.join(path.dirname(_HERE), 'archive_completed_roadmaps.ts');
+    if (!_isFile(script)) {
+        // A consumer install without the sweep script: nothing to run, and that
+        // is a normal state — the warning below still reports the roadmaps.
+        return { ran: false, ok: true, stdout: '', stderr: '' };
+    }
+    const argv = [script, '--all', '--repo-root', root];
+    const binName = process.platform === 'win32' ? 'tsx.cmd' : 'tsx';
+    let dir = path.dirname(_HERE);
+    for (;;) {
+        const candidate = path.join(dir, 'node_modules', '.bin', binName);
+        if (fs.existsSync(candidate)) {
+            return _sweepResult(spawnSync(candidate, argv, { cwd: root, encoding: 'utf-8' }));
+        }
+        const parent = path.dirname(dir);
+        if (parent === dir) {
+            break;
+        }
+        dir = parent;
+    }
+    return _sweepResult(spawnSync('npx', ['tsx', ...argv], { cwd: root, encoding: 'utf-8' }));
+}
+
+export interface SweepResult {
+    ran: boolean;
+    ok: boolean;
+    stdout: string;
+    stderr: string;
+}
+
+function _sweepResult(r: ReturnType<typeof spawnSync>): SweepResult {
+    return {
+        ran: true,
+        ok: r.status === 0,
+        stdout: String(r.stdout ?? ''),
+        stderr: String(r.stderr ?? ''),
+    };
+}
+

package/src/agent-src/scripts/archive_completed_roadmaps.ts

@@ -31,6 +31,7 @@
  *     ./scripts-run src/scripts/archive_completed_roadmaps            # --changed-only (default)
  *     ./scripts-run src/scripts/archive_completed_roadmaps --all
  *     ./scripts-run src/scripts/archive_completed_roadmaps --base origin/main --dry-run
+ *     ./scripts-run src/scripts/archive_completed_roadmaps --repo-root /path/to/proj
  *
  * --- Parity notes (ADR-200) ---
  *
@@ -462,19 +463,21 @@ function _runTwin(root: string, script: string): void {
 const _PROG = 'archive_completed_roadmaps.py';
 
 function _usage(): string {
-    return `usage: ${_PROG} [-h] [--all] [--base BASE] [--dry-run]\n`;
+    return `usage: ${_PROG} [-h] [--all] [--base BASE] [--dry-run] [--repo-root REPO_ROOT]\n`;
 }
 
 interface Args {
     all: boolean;
     base: string;
     dry_run: boolean;
+    repo_root: string | null;
 }
 
 function _parseArgs(argv: readonly string[]): Args {
     let all = false;
     let base = 'origin/main';
     let dry_run = false;
+    let repo_root: string | null = null;
     const emitError = (msg: string): never => {
         process.stderr.write(_usage());
         process.stderr.write(`${_PROG}: error: ${msg}\n`);
@@ -502,17 +505,30 @@ function _parseArgs(argv: readonly string[]): Args {
         } else if (tok.startsWith('--base=')) {
             base = tok.slice('--base='.length);
             i += 1;
+        } else if (tok === '--repo-root') {
+            const val = argv[i + 1];
+            if (val === undefined) {
+                emitError('argument --repo-root: expected one argument');
+            }
+            repo_root = val as string;
+            i += 2;
+        } else if (tok.startsWith('--repo-root=')) {
+            repo_root = tok.slice('--repo-root='.length);
+            i += 1;
         } else {
             emitError(`unrecognized arguments: ${tok}`);
         }
     }
-    return { all, base, dry_run };
+    return { all, base, dry_run, repo_root };
 }
 
 function main(argv?: readonly string[]): number {
     const ns = _parseArgs(argv ?? process.argv.slice(2));
 
-    const root = _repo_root();
+    // An explicit `--repo-root` wins over the `git rev-parse` resolution. The
+    // dashboard generator passes it so a monorepo sub-project sweep cannot walk
+    // up to the enclosing repo and archive the PARENT's roadmaps.
+    const root = ns.repo_root ?? _repo_root();
     const archived = archive_completed(root, {
         changed_only: !ns.all,
         base: ns.base,

package/src/agent-src/scripts/gate_budget.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,282 @@
+/**
+ * gate_budget — the class-1 spend bound and its append-only receipt ledger
+ * (`road-to-gate-autonomy` Phase 2, blocker `b-gate-budget-preauth`).
+ *
+ * WHY THIS EXISTS. Class 1 of the gate taxonomy is "billable or long-running
+ * but reversible; the human ingredient is *spend consent*, not judgment".
+ * `gate_execute.ts` shipped without it on purpose — "no invented ledger",
+ * because the budget SHAPE was an open maintainer decision. That decision is
+ * now taken (option (a): a per-run cap AND a rolling-window cap, with an
+ * append-only receipt ledger as the audit surface), so this module supplies
+ * exactly the shape that was decided and nothing more.
+ *
+ * WHAT THIS IS NOT. It is **not** a consent bypass. `gates --execute` still
+ * requires `--confirm` on every class-1 run, so the this-turn,
+ * names-the-exact-object confirmation `non-destructive-by-default` asks for is
+ * unchanged. The caps bound the SIZE of an authorised spend; they never
+ * manufacture the authorisation. A ledger under `agents/runtime/state/` is
+ * agent-writable, so a mechanism that read an "authorisation" out of it would
+ * be an agent consenting on the user's behalf — which is precisely the threat
+ * model the live-trigger-eval terminal abort exists for. That is why the
+ * receipt records CONSUMPTION only, and why step 2.3's bypass flag is not
+ * built on top of this file.
+ *
+ * A per-run cap alone is not a spend bound — it bounds one mistake, not a week
+ * of them — which is the whole reason the decision carries two numbers.
+ */
+import * as fs from 'node:fs';
+import * as path from 'node:path';
+
+/**
+ * Ledger location, relative to the workspace root.
+ *
+ * The name is the one already present in `gate_execute.ts` as the
+ * absent-ledger placeholder, kept verbatim so the path a class-1 entry has
+ * been REPORTING since Phase 2 is the path it now reads. `agents/runtime/state/`
+ * is this tree's state convention (`run_checkpoint`, `unattended_guard`,
+ * `recycle_envelope_paths` all live there); a bare `agents/state/` is not.
+ */
+export const GATE_BUDGET_LEDGER_REL = path.join(
+    'agents',
+    'runtime',
+    'state',
+    'gate-budget-ledger.jsonl',
+);
+
+/**
+ * Build the absolute ledger path.
+ *
+ * Callers import THIS rather than joining {@link GATE_BUDGET_LEDGER_REL}
+ * themselves: a bare relative constant is the shape that goes silently dead
+ * when the location moves, because nothing joins it any more and nothing
+ * complains.
+ */
+export function gateBudgetLedgerPath(workspaceRoot: string): string {
+    return path.join(workspaceRoot, GATE_BUDGET_LEDGER_REL);
+}
+
+/** The two caps decided by option (a). Both are USD. */
+export interface GateBudgetCaps {
+    maxCostPerRunUsd: number;
+    maxCostPerRolling7dUsd: number;
+}
+
+/**
+ * One append-only ledger line.
+ *
+ * The five fields the decision names — blocker, authorization, estimated and
+ * actual cost, timestamp — plus the single-use marker. `authorization` records
+ * HOW the spend was consented to; today the only value a run can honestly
+ * write is `confirm-flag`, because `--confirm` is the consent. A future
+ * human-only authorisation surface would add its own value here rather than
+ * reinterpreting this one.
+ */
+export interface GateBudgetReceipt {
+    kind: 'consumption';
+    blocker: string;
+    authorization: 'confirm-flag';
+    estimated_usd: number;
+    actual_usd: number | null;
+    at: string;
+    single_use: true;
+}
+
+/** Rolling window, in days, that `maxCostPerRolling7dUsd` bounds. */
+export const ROLLING_WINDOW_DAYS = 7;
+
+function _num(value: unknown): number | null {
+    if (typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)) {
+        return value;
+    }
+    return null;
+}
+
+function _dig(settings: unknown, keys: readonly string[]): unknown {
+    let cursor: unknown = settings;
+    for (const k of keys) {
+        if (cursor === null || typeof cursor !== 'object' || Array.isArray(cursor)) {
+            return undefined;
+        }
+        cursor = (cursor as Record<string, unknown>)[k];
+    }
+    return cursor;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Read the caps out of an already-merged settings dict.
+ *
+ * Returns `null` when either cap is absent or non-numeric — deliberately NOT a
+ * fallback to the template numbers. An install whose settings do not carry the
+ * caps has not authorised a standing budget, and inventing one from the
+ * template default would authorise spend nobody configured. The caller renders
+ * the consent line instead.
+ */
+export function readGateBudgetCaps(settings: unknown): GateBudgetCaps | null {
+    const perRun = _num(_dig(settings, ['roadmap', 'gate_budget', 'max_cost_per_run_usd']));
+    const rolling = _num(
+        _dig(settings, ['roadmap', 'gate_budget', 'max_cost_per_rolling_7d_usd']),
+    );
+    if (perRun === null || rolling === null) {
+        return null;
+    }
+    return { maxCostPerRunUsd: perRun, maxCostPerRolling7dUsd: rolling };
+}
+
+/**
+ * Parse a USD figure out of a blocker's `Budget:` field.
+ *
+ * An explicit currency marker (`$` or `USD`) is REQUIRED. Without it a field
+ * like "~50 queries per run" would be read as fifty dollars, and a spend bound
+ * derived from a misread is worse than no bound: it would let a large run
+ * through under a small number. Returns `null` when no USD figure is stated.
+ */
+export function parseBudgetUsd(field: string): number | null {
+    const text = field.trim();
+    if (text === '') {
+        return null;
+    }
+    const dollar = /\$\s*([0-9]+(?:[.,][0-9]+)?)/.exec(text);
+    if (dollar) {
+        return Number.parseFloat(dollar[1]!.replace(',', '.'));
+    }
+    const usd = /([0-9]+(?:[.,][0-9]+)?)\s*(?:usd|dollars?)\b/i.exec(text);
+    if (usd) {
+        return Number.parseFloat(usd[1]!.replace(',', '.'));
+    }
+    return null;
+}
+
+/** Read every well-formed receipt. A malformed line is skipped, never fatal. */
+export function readGateBudgetLedger(workspaceRoot: string): GateBudgetReceipt[] {
+    const file = gateBudgetLedgerPath(workspaceRoot);
+    if (!fs.existsSync(file)) {
+        return [];
+    }
+    const out: GateBudgetReceipt[] = [];
+    for (const line of fs.readFileSync(file, 'utf-8').split('\n')) {
+        const trimmed = line.trim();
+        if (trimmed === '') {
+            continue;
+        }
+        let parsed: unknown;
+        try {
+            parsed = JSON.parse(trimmed);
+        } catch {
+            continue;
+        }
+        if (parsed === null || typeof parsed !== 'object') {
+            continue;
+        }
+        const rec = parsed as Record<string, unknown>;
+        if (rec['kind'] !== 'consumption' || typeof rec['blocker'] !== 'string') {
+            continue;
+        }
+        out.push({
+            kind: 'consumption',
+            blocker: rec['blocker'],
+            authorization: 'confirm-flag',
+            estimated_usd: _num(rec['estimated_usd']) ?? 0,
+            actual_usd: _num(rec['actual_usd']),
+            at: typeof rec['at'] === 'string' ? rec['at'] : '',
+            single_use: true,
+        });
+    }
+    return out;
+}
+
+/** Append one receipt. Append-only by construction — nothing here rewrites. */
+export function appendGateBudgetReceipt(
+    workspaceRoot: string,
+    receipt: GateBudgetReceipt,
+): void {
+    const file = gateBudgetLedgerPath(workspaceRoot);
+    fs.mkdirSync(path.dirname(file), { recursive: true });
+    fs.appendFileSync(file, `${JSON.stringify(receipt)}\n`, 'utf-8');
+}
+
+/**
+ * Spend inside the rolling window.
+ *
+ * `actual_usd` when the run reported one, the estimate otherwise — an
+ * unreported actual must not read as zero spend. A receipt with an unparseable
+ * timestamp counts as IN the window, because dropping it would understate the
+ * total and the cap is meant to fail closed.
+ */
+export function rollingSpendUsd(records: readonly GateBudgetReceipt[], now: Date): number {
+    const cutoff = now.getTime() - ROLLING_WINDOW_DAYS * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+    let total = 0;
+    for (const r of records) {
+        const stamp = Date.parse(r.at);
+        if (Number.isFinite(stamp) && stamp < cutoff) {
+            continue;
+        }
+        total += r.actual_usd ?? r.estimated_usd;
+    }
+    return total;
+}
+
+export type GateBudgetRefusal =
+    | 'no_caps'
+    | 'no_estimate'
+    | 'over_per_run'
+    | 'over_rolling_7d';
+
+export type GateBudgetVerdict =
+    | { ok: true; estimateUsd: number; rollingUsd: number }
+    | { ok: false; reason: GateBudgetRefusal; detail: string };
+
+/**
+ * Decide whether a class-1 run fits inside the standing budget.
+ *
+ * Every refusal path renders rather than runs — the blocker's own prescription
+ * for a missing ledger, generalised to every way the budget can say no.
+ */
+export function evaluateGateBudget(opts: {
+    caps: GateBudgetCaps | null;
+    records: readonly GateBudgetReceipt[];
+    estimateUsd: number | null;
+    now: Date;
+}): GateBudgetVerdict {
+    const { caps, records, estimateUsd, now } = opts;
+    if (caps === null) {
+        return {
+            ok: false,
+            reason: 'no_caps',
+            detail:
+                'no standing class-1 budget is configured ' +
+                '(`roadmap.gate_budget.max_cost_per_run_usd` and ' +
+                '`roadmap.gate_budget.max_cost_per_rolling_7d_usd`)',
+        };
+    }
+    if (estimateUsd === null) {
+        return {
+            ok: false,
+            reason: 'no_estimate',
+            detail:
+                'the entry states no USD estimate in its **Budget:** field, so no cap ' +
+                'can be compared against it',
+        };
+    }
+    if (estimateUsd > caps.maxCostPerRunUsd) {
+        return {
+            ok: false,
+            reason: 'over_per_run',
+            detail:
+                `the estimate ($${estimateUsd.toFixed(2)}) exceeds the per-run cap ` +
+                `($${caps.maxCostPerRunUsd.toFixed(2)})`,
+        };
+    }
+    const spent = rollingSpendUsd(records, now);
+    if (spent + estimateUsd > caps.maxCostPerRolling7dUsd) {
+        return {
+            ok: false,
+            reason: 'over_rolling_7d',
+            detail:
+                `$${spent.toFixed(2)} is already receipted in the last ` +
+                `${String(ROLLING_WINDOW_DAYS)} days and this run would add ` +
+                `$${estimateUsd.toFixed(2)}, over the rolling cap ` +
+                `($${caps.maxCostPerRolling7dUsd.toFixed(2)})`,
+        };
+    }
+    return { ok: true, estimateUsd, rollingUsd: spent };
+}