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package/docs/guidelines/agent-infra/mental-models.md

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+# Mental Models
+
+Reference guideline for Wing-1 deep-thinking work — Charlie Munger's
+multi-discipline lattice for analyzing problems through more than one
+lens at a time. Adopted under the **Reference-Guideline Sunset Policy**
+(see frontmatter `upstream` / `refresh_trigger` keys) and cross-referenced
+from:
+
+- [`deep-reading-analyst`](../../../.agent-src.uncompressed/skills/deep-reading-analyst/SKILL.md)
+  — L3 Deep analysis depth.
+- [`refine-prompt`](../../../.agent-src.uncompressed/skills/refine-prompt/SKILL.md)
+  — multi-lens prompt refinement.
+- [`judge-bug-hunter`](../../../.agent-src.uncompressed/skills/judge-bug-hunter/SKILL.md)
+  — diff review through more than the bug-hunter lens.
+
+> **Core principle:** "To a man with only a hammer, every problem looks
+> like a nail." — Charlie Munger
+
+## When to Use
+
+Ideal for:
+- 📊 Understanding complex problems from multiple angles
+- 🔍 Avoiding cognitive biases and blind spots
+- 💡 Finding innovative solutions
+- 🎯 Making important decisions
+- 📚 Cross-disciplinary learning and knowledge integration
+
+## Core Mental Models Toolkit
+
+### 1. General Thinking Models
+
+#### First Principles
+- Strip away assumptions to fundamentals
+- Rebuild from basic truths
+- Application: Analyze article's core assumptions
+
+#### Compounding
+- Long-term accumulation creates exponential growth
+- Small improvements compound over time
+- Application: Evaluate long-term strategies in content
+
+#### Opportunity Cost
+- Choosing one option means forgoing others
+- Evaluate trade-offs
+- Application: Analyze the cost of recommended approaches
+
+### 2. Physics Models
+
+#### Leverage
+- Small force creates large results
+- Find the critical leverage points
+- Application: Identify key action points in articles
+
+#### Inertia
+- Systems tend to maintain current state
+- Change requires additional energy
+- Application: Understand resistance to change
+
+#### Critical Mass
+- Qualitative change occurs after reaching threshold
+- Accumulation to breakthrough
+- Application: Evaluate when tipping points occur
+
+### 3. Biology Models
+
+#### Evolution
+- Survival of the fittest, continuous iteration
+- Small experiments, rapid adaptation
+- Application: Analyze adaptive strategies in content
+
+#### Ecosystem
+- Complex networks of interdependence
+- Balance and diversity
+- Application: Understand systemic issues
+
+#### Red Queen Effect
+- Must keep running to stay in same place
+- Continuous progress in competitive environments
+- Application: Evaluate competitive strategies
+
+### 4. Psychology Models
+
+#### Cognitive Biases
+- Confirmation bias, anchoring, availability heuristic
+- Systematic thinking errors
+- Application: Identify logical flaws in arguments
+
+#### Loss Aversion
+- Motivation to avoid losses > gain benefits
+- Asymmetric risk decision-making
+- Application: Understand decision motivations
+
+#### Social Proof
+- Herd mentality and group influence
+- Others' behavior affects judgment
+- Application: Analyze persuasive power of arguments
+
+### 5. Economics Models
+
+#### Supply and Demand
+- Price determined by market equilibrium
+- Scarcity creates value
+- Application: Analyze market-related articles
+
+#### Marginal Utility
+- Value of additional units decreases
+- Optimal point isn't maximum
+- Application: Evaluate resource allocation recommendations
+
+#### Incentives
+- "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome"
+- People respond to incentives
+- Application: Understand motivations behind behaviors
+
+### 6. Mathematics/Statistics Models
+
+#### Normal Distribution
+- Most cases cluster around average
+- Extreme cases are rare
+- Application: Evaluate probabilities and risks
+
+#### Power Law
+- 80/20 rule (Pareto Principle)
+- Few factors produce most results
+- Application: Identify key factors
+
+#### Regression to the Mean
+- Extreme results tend toward average
+- Avoid overreaction to outliers
+- Application: Evaluate representativeness of exceptional cases
+
+### 7. Systems Thinking Models
+
+#### Feedback Loops
+- Positive feedback: amplifying effects
+- Negative feedback: balancing stability
+- Application: Identify causal relationships
+
+#### Emergence
+- Whole is greater than sum of parts
+- System-level properties
+- Application: Understand complex systems
+
+#### Bottleneck
+- Critical constraint limiting system performance
+- Optimizing bottleneck yields maximum benefit
+- Application: Find core problems
+
+## Application Method
+
+### Step 1: Identify Problem Type
+
+```markdown
+Problem Classification:
+- [ ] Decision problem → Use: Opportunity cost, Loss aversion, Incentives
+- [ ] System problem → Use: Feedback loops, Emergence, Ecosystem
+- [ ] Growth problem → Use: Compounding, Leverage, Power law
+- [ ] Competition problem → Use: Evolution, Red Queen effect, Game theory
+```
+
+### Step 2: Apply Multiple Models
+
+**Rule**: Use at least 3 models from different disciplines
+
+```markdown
+## Multi-Perspective Analysis
+
+### Physics Perspective (Leverage)
+- Observation: Key actions proposed in article
+- Analysis: Which action yields maximum output with minimum input?
+- Conclusion: [Identify leverage points]
+
+### Psychology Perspective (Cognitive Biases)
+- Observation: Argumentation approach
+- Analysis: Any confirmation or survivorship bias present?
+- Conclusion: [Evaluate argument quality]
+
+### Economics Perspective (Incentives)
+- Observation: Stakeholders involved
+- Analysis: Are incentives aligned?
+- Conclusion: [Understand behavioral motivations]
+```
+
+### Step 3: Find Model Intersections
+
+```markdown
+## Cross-Model Insights
+
+When multiple models point to same conclusion → confidence ↑
+When models contradict → need deeper investigation
+
+Intersection discoveries:
+1. [Model A] + [Model B] → [Shared insight]
+2. [Contradiction] → [Issue requiring further analysis]
+```
+
+### Step 4: Synthesize Judgment
+
+```markdown
+## Integrated Conclusion
+
+Based on multi-model analysis:
+- ✅ Strongly supported views: [List]
+- ⚠️  Proceed with caution: [List]
+- ❌ Problematic assumptions: [List]
+
+Meta-cognitive check:
+- Did I use sufficiently diverse models?
+- Any important perspectives missing?
+- Over-reliance on any single model?
+```
+
+## Practical Example
+
+### Example: Analyzing Startup Article
+
+**Article Claim**: "Rapid growth is key to startup success"
+
+#### Multi-Model Analysis:
+
+**1. Ecosystem Model (Biology)**
+- Insight: Too-rapid growth can disrupt organizational "ecosystem balance"
+- Risk: Culture dilution, quality decline
+
+**2. Critical Mass Model (Physics)**
+- Insight: Must reach certain scale to survive
+- Support: Network effects require user base
+
+**3. Marginal Utility Model (Economics)**
+- Insight: Growth benefits diminish
+- Question: Is unlimited growth speed pursuit rational?
+
+**4. Feedback Loop Model (Systems)**
+- Insight: Rapid growth → resource strain → quality drop → user churn (negative feedback)
+- Risk: Growth trap
+
+**Synthesized Judgment**:
+- ✅ Article valid: Early stage needs rapid market validation
+- ⚠️  Missing: Sustainable vs. growth-at-all-costs
+- ❌ Overlooked: Industry/stage-specific growth rhythms
+
+## Common Pitfalls
+
+### ❌ Wrong Usage
+
+1. **Model Misuse**: Force-fitting irrelevant models
+2. **Single Dependency**: Actually using only one model, pretending it's multiple
+3. **Over-complexity**: Piling models without real insights
+4. **Ignoring Context**: Not considering specific situational differences
+
+### ✅ Correct Usage
+
+1. **Choose Relevance**: Select models related to problem essence
+2. **Apply Deeply**: Truly understand model applicability
+3. **Seek Conflicts**: Pay special attention to model contradictions
+4. **Stay Flexible**: Adjust model selection based on new information
+
+## Building Your Model Library
+
+### Beginner Level (Essential)
+- First principles
+- Opportunity cost
+- Compounding
+- Feedback loops
+- Cognitive biases
+
+### Intermediate Level (Expansion)
+- Ecosystem
+- Power law
+- Emergence
+- Red Queen effect
+- Game theory
+
+### Advanced Level (Specialization)
+- Deepen based on your domain
+- Cross-disciplinary integration
+- Create your own model combinations
+
+## Learning Recommendations
+
+1. **Broad Reading**: Study classics from different disciplines
+2. **Deliberate Practice**: Try applying 3+ models to every problem
+3. **Build Index**: Maintain personal "model → use case" catalog
+4. **Reflect**: Note which model combinations work especially well
+5. **Teach Others**: Explaining models deepens understanding
+
+## Recommended Resources
+
+**Books**:
+- "Poor Charlie's Almanack" - Charlie Munger
+- "The Art of Thinking Clearly" - Rolf Dobelli
+- "Principles" - Ray Dalio
+- "Super Thinking" - Gabriel Weinberg
+
+**Key Quote**:
+> "You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely—all of them, not just a few."
+> — Charlie Munger
+
+## Integration with Other Frameworks
+
+- **Critical Thinking**: Mental models help identify argument blind spots
+- **Systems Thinking**: Provides more tools for analyzing systems
+- **First Principles**: Can serve as one of the mental models
+- **Six Thinking Hats**: Complementary multi-perspective method
+
+---
+
+**Remember**: The goal of mental models isn't using more models, but gaining deeper insights. Quality > Quantity.
+
+---
+
+## ADOPT citation
+
+Adopted from [`ginobefun/deep-reading-analyst-skill`](https://github.com/ginobefun/deep-reading-analyst-skill) @ commit `26cd7dc9` · `src/deep-reading-analyst/references/mental_models.md` · MIT License.