@elizaos/plugin-social-alpha 2.0.3-beta.5 → 2.0.3-beta.7

package/dist/services/simulationRunner.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../../src/services/simulationRunner.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import * as fs from \"node:fs/promises\";\nimport * as path from \"node:path\";\nimport type { UUID } from \"@elizaos/core\";\nimport { v4 as uuidv4 } from \"uuid\";\nimport { Conviction, SupportedChain } from \"../types.js\";\nimport type { SimulatedActorV2 } from \"./simulationActorsV2.js\";\nimport {\n\ttype TokenScenario as TokenScenarioInterface,\n\tTokenSimulationService,\n} from \"./tokenSimulationService.js\";\n\n// Create enum from the token scenario types\nexport enum TokenScenario {\n\tRUG_PULL_FAST = \"rug_fast\",\n\tRUG_PULL_SLOW = \"rug_slow\",\n\tSCAM_TOKEN = \"scam\",\n\tRUNNER_MOON = \"runner_moon\",\n\tRUNNER_STEADY = \"runner_steady\",\n\tSUCCESSFUL = \"successful\",\n\tMEDIOCRE = \"mediocre\",\n\tSTAGNANT = \"stagnant\",\n\tBLUE_CHIP = \"bluechip\",\n\tPUMP_AND_DUMP = \"pump_dump\",\n\tSLOW_BLEED = \"slow_bleed\",\n}\n\n// Define the price data structure\nexport interface TokenPrice {\n\ttimestamp: Date;\n\tprice: number;\n\tvolume: number;\n\tliquidity: number;\n\tmarketCap: number;\n}\n\n// Actor configuration for simulation\nexport interface ActorConfig {\n\tid: UUID;\n\tusername: string;\n\tarchetype:\n\t\t| \"elite_analyst\"\n\t\t| \"skilled_trader\"\n\t\t| \"pump_chaser\"\n\t\t| \"rug_promoter\"\n\t\t| \"fomo_trader\"\n\t\t| \"contrarian\"\n\t\t| \"technical_analyst\"\n\t\t| \"newbie\"\n\t\t| \"bot_spammer\";\n\texpectedTrustScore: number;\n\ttokenPreferences: TokenScenario[];\n\tcallFrequency: \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\";\n\ttimingBias: \"early\" | \"middle\" | \"late\" | \"random\";\n}\n\n// Types matching the real EnrichedCallData format\nexport interface SimulatedCallData {\n\tcallId: UUID;\n\toriginalMessageId: string;\n\tuserId: string;\n\tusername: string;\n\ttimestamp: number;\n\tcontent: string;\n\tnameMentioned?: string;\n\ttokenMentioned?: string;\n\tcaMentioned?: string;\n\tchain: SupportedChain | \"unknown\";\n\tsentiment: \"positive\" | \"negative\" | \"neutral\";\n\tconviction: Conviction;\n\tllmReasoning: string;\n\tcertainty: \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\";\n\tfileSource: string;\n\t// Simulation metadata\n\tsimulationMetadata: {\n\t\ttokenScenario: TokenScenario;\n\t\tactorArchetype: string;\n\t\tpriceAtCall: number;\n\t\tmarketCapAtCall: number;\n\t\tliquidityAtCall: number;\n\t\texpectedOutcome: \"profit\" | \"loss\" | \"neutral\";\n\t\tactualProfit?: number; // Calculated at end of simulation\n\t};\n}\n\nexport interface SimulationToken {\n\taddress: string;\n\tsymbol: string;\n\tname: string;\n\tscenario: TokenScenario;\n\tlaunchTime: Date;\n\tinitialPrice: number;\n\tinitialMarketCap: number;\n\tinitialLiquidity: number;\n\tpriceTrajectory?: (step: number) => number;\n}\n\nexport interface SimulationConfig {\n\t// Time settings\n\tstartTime: Date;\n\tendTime: Date;\n\ttimeStepMinutes: number;\n\n\t// Token generation\n\ttokenCount: number;\n\ttokenScenarioDistribution?: Partial<Record<TokenScenario, number>>; // Weights\n\n\t// Actor configuration\n\tactors: ActorConfig[];\n\n\t// Output settings\n\toutputDir: string;\n\tcacheResults: boolean;\n}\n\nexport interface SimulationResult {\n\tcalls: SimulatedCallData[];\n\ttokens: Map<string, SimulationToken>;\n\tpriceHistory: Map<string, TokenPrice[]>;\n\tactorPerformance: Map<\n\t\tstring,\n\t\t{\n\t\t\ttotalCalls: number;\n\t\t\tprofitableCalls: number;\n\t\t\ttotalProfit: number;\n\t\t\taverageProfit: number;\n\t\t\ttrustScore?: number;\n\t\t}\n\t>;\n}\n\nexport class SimulationRunner {\n\tprivate tokenService: TokenSimulationService;\n\n\tconstructor() {\n\t\tthis.tokenService = new TokenSimulationService();\n\t}\n\n\tasync runSimulation(config: SimulationConfig): Promise<SimulationResult> {\n\t\tconsole.log(\"🚀 Starting comprehensive market simulation...\");\n\n\t\t// Initialize result containers\n\t\tconst calls: SimulatedCallData[] = [];\n\t\tconst tokens = new Map<string, SimulationToken>();\n\t\tconst priceHistory = new Map<string, TokenPrice[]>();\n\t\tconst actorPerformance = new Map<\n\t\t\tstring,\n\t\t\t{\n\t\t\t\ttotalCalls: number;\n\t\t\t\tprofitableCalls: number;\n\t\t\t\ttotalProfit: number;\n\t\t\t\taverageProfit: number;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t>();\n\n\t\t// Initialize actors\n\t\tfor (const actor of config.actors) {\n\t\t\t// Convert ActorConfig to SimulatedActorV2\n\t\t\tconst _simulatedActor: SimulatedActorV2 = {\n\t\t\t\tid: actor.id,\n\t\t\t\tusername: actor.username,\n\t\t\t\tarchetype: actor.archetype,\n\t\t\t\ttrustScore: actor.expectedTrustScore,\n\t\t\t\tcallHistory: [],\n\t\t\t\tpreferences: {\n\t\t\t\t\tfavoriteTokenTypes: this.mapScenarioToTypes(actor.tokenPreferences),\n\t\t\t\t\tcallFrequency: actor.callFrequency,\n\t\t\t\t\ttimingBias: actor.timingBias,\n\t\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t};\n\n\t\t\tactorPerformance.set(actor.id, {\n\t\t\t\ttotalCalls: 0,\n\t\t\t\tprofitableCalls: 0,\n\t\t\t\ttotalProfit: 0,\n\t\t\t\taverageProfit: 0,\n\t\t\t});\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Generate tokens with scenarios\n\t\tconst generatedTokens = this.generateTokens(config);\n\t\tfor (const token of generatedTokens) {\n\t\t\ttokens.set(token.address, token);\n\t\t\tpriceHistory.set(token.address, []);\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Run simulation time steps\n\t\tlet currentTime = new Date(config.startTime);\n\t\tconst endTime = new Date(config.endTime);\n\t\tlet stepCount = 0;\n\n\t\twhile (currentTime <= endTime) {\n\t\t\tstepCount++;\n\n\t\t\t// Update token prices for current time\n\t\t\tfor (const [address, token] of tokens) {\n\t\t\t\tconst timeSinceLaunch =\n\t\t\t\t\t(currentTime.getTime() - token.launchTime.getTime()) /\n\t\t\t\t\t(1000 * 60 * 60);\n\n\t\t\t\tif (timeSinceLaunch >= 0) {\n\t\t\t\t\tconst price = this.calculateTokenPrice(token, timeSinceLaunch);\n\n\t\t\t\t\tpriceHistory.get(address)?.push({\n\t\t\t\t\t\ttimestamp: currentTime,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tprice: price.price,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tvolume: price.volume,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tliquidity: price.liquidity,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tmarketCap: price.marketCap,\n\t\t\t\t\t});\n\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t}\n\n\t\t\t// Generate actor calls for this time step\n\t\t\tconst stepCalls = this.generateCallsForTimeStep(\n\t\t\t\tcurrentTime,\n\t\t\t\ttokens,\n\t\t\t\tpriceHistory,\n\t\t\t\tconfig,\n\t\t\t);\n\n\t\t\tcalls.push(...stepCalls);\n\n\t\t\t// Advance time\n\t\t\tcurrentTime = new Date(\n\t\t\t\tcurrentTime.getTime() + config.timeStepMinutes * 60 * 1000,\n\t\t\t);\n\t\t}\n\n\t\tconsole.log(\n\t\t\t`✅ Simulation complete: ${stepCount} time steps, ${calls.length} calls generated`,\n\t\t);\n\n\t\t// Calculate actual profits for each call\n\t\tawait this.calculateActualProfits(calls, tokens, priceHistory);\n\n\t\t// Update actor performance metrics\n\t\tfor (const call of calls) {\n\t\t\tconst perf = actorPerformance.get(call.userId);\n\t\t\tif (!perf) continue;\n\t\t\tperf.totalCalls++;\n\n\t\t\tif (\n\t\t\t\tcall.simulationMetadata.actualProfit &&\n\t\t\t\tcall.simulationMetadata.actualProfit > 0\n\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\tperf.profitableCalls++;\n\t\t\t}\n\n\t\t\tperf.totalProfit += call.simulationMetadata.actualProfit || 0;\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Calculate average profits\n\t\tfor (const [_actorId, perf] of actorPerformance) {\n\t\t\tperf.averageProfit =\n\t\t\t\tperf.totalCalls > 0 ? perf.totalProfit / perf.totalCalls : 0;\n\t\t}\n\n\t\tconst result: SimulationResult = {\n\t\t\tcalls,\n\t\t\ttokens,\n\t\t\tpriceHistory,\n\t\t\tactorPerformance,\n\t\t};\n\n\t\t// Cache results if requested\n\t\tif (config.cacheResults) {\n\t\t\tawait this.cacheResults(result, config);\n\t\t}\n\n\t\treturn result;\n\t}\n\n\tprivate calculateTokenPrice(\n\t\ttoken: SimulationToken,\n\t\thoursSinceLaunch: number,\n\t): TokenPrice {\n\t\t// Use price trajectory if available\n\t\tlet price = token.initialPrice;\n\t\tif (token.priceTrajectory) {\n\t\t\t// Convert hours to steps (assuming 1 step = 1 day)\n\t\t\tconst step = Math.floor(hoursSinceLaunch / 24);\n\t\t\tprice = token.priceTrajectory(step);\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Calculate other metrics based on price movement\n\t\tconst priceRatio = price / token.initialPrice;\n\t\tconst marketCap = token.initialMarketCap * priceRatio;\n\t\tconst liquidity = token.initialLiquidity * Math.sqrt(priceRatio); // Liquidity grows slower\n\t\tconst volume = marketCap * 0.1 * (1 + Math.random() * 0.5); // 10-15% of market cap\n\n\t\treturn {\n\t\t\ttimestamp: new Date(),\n\t\t\tprice,\n\t\t\tvolume,\n\t\t\tliquidity,\n\t\t\tmarketCap,\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate mapScenarioToTypes(\n\t\tscenarios: TokenScenario[],\n\t): TokenScenarioInterface[\"type\"][] {\n\t\tconst mapping: Record<TokenScenario, TokenScenarioInterface[\"type\"]> = {\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUG_PULL_FAST]: \"rug\",\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUG_PULL_SLOW]: \"rug\",\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.SCAM_TOKEN]: \"scam\",\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUNNER_MOON]: \"runner\",\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUNNER_STEADY]: \"runner\",\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.SUCCESSFUL]: \"successful\",\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.MEDIOCRE]: \"mediocre\",\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.STAGNANT]: \"stagnant\",\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.BLUE_CHIP]: \"bluechip\",\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.PUMP_AND_DUMP]: \"pump_dump\",\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.SLOW_BLEED]: \"slow_bleed\",\n\t\t};\n\n\t\treturn scenarios.map((s) => mapping[s]);\n\t}\n\n\tprivate generateTokens(config: SimulationConfig): SimulationToken[] {\n\t\tconst tokens: SimulationToken[] = [];\n\n\t\t// Default distribution if not provided\n\t\tconst distribution = config.tokenScenarioDistribution || {\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUG_PULL_FAST]: 0.15,\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUG_PULL_SLOW]: 0.1,\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.SCAM_TOKEN]: 0.1,\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.PUMP_AND_DUMP]: 0.15,\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.MEDIOCRE]: 0.2,\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.SUCCESSFUL]: 0.15,\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUNNER_MOON]: 0.05,\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.BLUE_CHIP]: 0.05,\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.SLOW_BLEED]: 0.05,\n\t\t};\n\n\t\t// Generate tokens based on distribution\n\t\tfor (let i = 0; i < config.tokenCount; i++) {\n\t\t\tconst scenario = this.selectScenarioByWeight(distribution);\n\t\t\tconst token = this.createToken(scenario, i, config);\n\t\t\ttokens.push(token);\n\t\t}\n\n\t\tconsole.log(\n\t\t\t`📊 Generated ${tokens.length} tokens with scenarios:`,\n\t\t\ttokens.reduce(\n\t\t\t\t(acc, t) => {\n\t\t\t\t\tacc[t.scenario] = (acc[t.scenario] || 0) + 1;\n\t\t\t\t\treturn acc;\n\t\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t\t{} as Record<string, number>,\n\t\t\t),\n\t\t);\n\n\t\treturn tokens;\n\t}\n\n\tprivate selectScenarioByWeight(\n\t\tdistribution: Partial<Record<TokenScenario, number>>,\n\t): TokenScenario {\n\t\tconst entries = Object.entries(distribution) as [TokenScenario, number][];\n\t\tconst totalWeight = entries.reduce((sum, [_, weight]) => sum + weight, 0);\n\t\tlet random = Math.random() * totalWeight;\n\n\t\tfor (const [scenario, weight] of entries) {\n\t\t\trandom -= weight;\n\t\t\tif (random <= 0) {\n\t\t\t\treturn scenario;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\n\t\treturn TokenScenario.MEDIOCRE; // Fallback\n\t}\n\n\tprivate createToken(\n\t\tscenario: TokenScenario,\n\t\tindex: number,\n\t\tconfig: SimulationConfig,\n\t): SimulationToken {\n\t\t// Spread token launches across simulation time\n\t\tconst launchSpread = config.endTime.getTime() - config.startTime.getTime();\n\t\tconst launchOffset = Math.random() * launchSpread * 0.8; // Launch in first 80% of simulation\n\n\t\t// Create appropriate scenario from token service\n\t\tconst scenarioConfig = this.getScenarioConfig(scenario);\n\t\tconst tokenFromService =\n\t\t\tthis.tokenService.createTokenFromScenario(scenarioConfig);\n\n\t\treturn {\n\t\t\taddress: `0x${uuidv4().replace(/-/g, \"\")}${index.toString().padStart(8, \"0\")}`,\n\t\t\tsymbol: `SIM${scenario.substring(0, 3).toUpperCase()}${index}`,\n\t\t\tname: `Simulated ${scenario.replace(/_/g, \" \")} Token ${index}`,\n\t\t\tscenario,\n\t\t\tlaunchTime: new Date(config.startTime.getTime() + launchOffset),\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.00001 + Math.random() * 0.0001, // $0.00001 - $0.0001\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 10000 + Math.random() * 90000, // $10k - $100k\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 5000 + Math.random() * 45000, // $5k - $50k\n\t\t\tpriceTrajectory: tokenFromService.priceTrajectory,\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate getScenarioConfig(scenario: TokenScenario): TokenScenarioInterface {\n\t\tconst configs: Record<TokenScenario, TokenScenarioInterface> = {\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUG_PULL_FAST]: {\n\t\t\t\ttype: \"rug\",\n\t\t\t\tname: \"FastRug Token\",\n\t\t\t\tsymbol: \"FRUG\",\n\t\t\t\tdescription: \"Rugs within 2 days\",\n\t\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.00001,\n\t\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 5000,\n\t\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 10000,\n\t\t\t\trugTiming: 2,\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUG_PULL_SLOW]: {\n\t\t\t\ttype: \"rug\",\n\t\t\t\tname: \"SlowRug Token\",\n\t\t\t\tsymbol: \"SRUG\",\n\t\t\t\tdescription: \"Builds trust then rugs\",\n\t\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.00005,\n\t\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 20000,\n\t\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 50000,\n\t\t\t\trugTiming: 10,\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.SCAM_TOKEN]: {\n\t\t\t\ttype: \"scam\",\n\t\t\t\tname: \"Scam Token\",\n\t\t\t\tsymbol: \"SCAM\",\n\t\t\t\tdescription: \"Low liquidity scam\",\n\t\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.001,\n\t\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 500,\n\t\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 5000,\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUNNER_MOON]: {\n\t\t\t\ttype: \"runner\",\n\t\t\t\tname: \"MoonShot Token\",\n\t\t\t\tsymbol: \"MOON\",\n\t\t\t\tdescription: \"50x growth potential\",\n\t\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.00001,\n\t\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 50000,\n\t\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 100000,\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUNNER_STEADY]: {\n\t\t\t\ttype: \"runner\",\n\t\t\t\tname: \"SteadyGains Token\",\n\t\t\t\tsymbol: \"GAIN\",\n\t\t\t\tdescription: \"10x steady growth\",\n\t\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.0001,\n\t\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 30000,\n\t\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 200000,\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.SUCCESSFUL]: {\n\t\t\t\ttype: \"successful\",\n\t\t\t\tname: \"Solid Project\",\n\t\t\t\tsymbol: \"SOLID\",\n\t\t\t\tdescription: \"3x growth\",\n\t\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.001,\n\t\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 100000,\n\t\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 500000,\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.MEDIOCRE]: {\n\t\t\t\ttype: \"mediocre\",\n\t\t\t\tname: \"Crabwalk Token\",\n\t\t\t\tsymbol: \"CRAB\",\n\t\t\t\tdescription: \"Sideways movement\",\n\t\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.01,\n\t\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 50000,\n\t\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 300000,\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.STAGNANT]: {\n\t\t\t\ttype: \"stagnant\",\n\t\t\t\tname: \"Dead Project\",\n\t\t\t\tsymbol: \"DEAD\",\n\t\t\t\tdescription: \"No volume\",\n\t\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.005,\n\t\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 10000,\n\t\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 50000,\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.BLUE_CHIP]: {\n\t\t\t\ttype: \"bluechip\",\n\t\t\t\tname: \"Established Token\",\n\t\t\t\tsymbol: \"BLUE\",\n\t\t\t\tdescription: \"Stable growth\",\n\t\t\t\tinitialPrice: 10.0,\n\t\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 5000000,\n\t\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 100000000,\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.PUMP_AND_DUMP]: {\n\t\t\t\ttype: \"pump_dump\",\n\t\t\t\tname: \"PumpDump Token\",\n\t\t\t\tsymbol: \"PUMP\",\n\t\t\t\tdescription: \"20x then dump\",\n\t\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.00001,\n\t\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 15000,\n\t\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 20000,\n\t\t\t\tpumpTiming: 3,\n\t\t\t\tdumpTiming: 5,\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t\t[TokenScenario.SLOW_BLEED]: {\n\t\t\t\ttype: \"slow_bleed\",\n\t\t\t\tname: \"BleedOut Token\",\n\t\t\t\tsymbol: \"BLEED\",\n\t\t\t\tdescription: \"Slow decline\",\n\t\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.01,\n\t\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 40000,\n\t\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 200000,\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t};\n\n\t\treturn configs[scenario];\n\t}\n\n\tprivate generateCallsForTimeStep(\n\t\tcurrentTime: Date,\n\t\ttokens: Map<string, SimulationToken>,\n\t\tpriceHistory: Map<string, TokenPrice[]>,\n\t\tconfig: SimulationConfig,\n\t): SimulatedCallData[] {\n\t\tconst calls: SimulatedCallData[] = [];\n\n\t\t// Get active tokens (launched but not dead)\n\t\tconst activeTokens = Array.from(tokens.values()).filter((token) => {\n\t\t\tconst isLaunched = token.launchTime <= currentTime;\n\t\t\tconst history = priceHistory.get(token.address) || [];\n\t\t\tconst latestPrice = history[history.length - 1];\n\t\t\tconst isDead =\n\t\t\t\tlatestPrice && latestPrice.price < token.initialPrice * 0.01;\n\n\t\t\treturn isLaunched && !isDead;\n\t\t});\n\n\t\tif (activeTokens.length === 0) return calls;\n\n\t\t// Each actor makes decisions\n\t\tfor (const actor of config.actors) {\n\t\t\t// Check if actor should make a call this time step\n\t\t\tconst shouldCall = this.shouldActorCall(actor, currentTime);\n\t\t\tif (!shouldCall) continue;\n\n\t\t\t// Select tokens based on actor preferences\n\t\t\tconst targetTokens = this.selectTokensForActor(\n\t\t\t\tactor,\n\t\t\t\tactiveTokens,\n\t\t\t\tpriceHistory,\n\t\t\t\tcurrentTime,\n\t\t\t);\n\n\t\t\tfor (const token of targetTokens) {\n\t\t\t\tconst tokenPriceHistory = priceHistory.get(token.address);\n\t\t\t\tif (!tokenPriceHistory) continue;\n\t\t\t\tconst call = this.generateActorCall(\n\t\t\t\t\tactor,\n\t\t\t\t\ttoken,\n\t\t\t\t\ttokenPriceHistory,\n\t\t\t\t\tcurrentTime,\n\t\t\t\t);\n\n\t\t\t\tif (call) {\n\t\t\t\t\tcalls.push(call);\n\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\n\t\treturn calls;\n\t}\n\n\tprivate shouldActorCall(actor: ActorConfig, _currentTime: Date): boolean {\n\t\t// Base frequency on actor's call frequency setting - increased for better simulation\n\t\tconst frequencyMultiplier = {\n\t\t\thigh: 0.7, // Increased from 0.3\n\t\t\tmedium: 0.4, // Increased from 0.1\n\t\t\tlow: 0.15, // Increased from 0.03\n\t\t}[actor.callFrequency];\n\n\t\treturn Math.random() < frequencyMultiplier;\n\t}\n\n\tprivate selectTokensForActor(\n\t\tactor: ActorConfig,\n\t\tactiveTokens: SimulationToken[],\n\t\tpriceHistory: Map<string, TokenPrice[]>,\n\t\tcurrentTime: Date,\n\t): SimulationToken[] {\n\t\t// Filter tokens based on actor preferences\n\t\tlet candidateTokens = activeTokens;\n\n\t\t// Elite analysts and skilled traders should identify good tokens early\n\t\tif ([\"elite_analyst\", \"skilled_trader\"].includes(actor.archetype)) {\n\t\t\tcandidateTokens = activeTokens.filter((token) => {\n\t\t\t\tconst _history = priceHistory.get(token.address) || [];\n\t\t\t\tconst timeSinceLaunch =\n\t\t\t\t\t(currentTime.getTime() - token.launchTime.getTime()) /\n\t\t\t\t\t(1000 * 60 * 60);\n\n\t\t\t\t// Focus on quality tokens in early stages\n\t\t\t\tif (actor.archetype === \"elite_analyst\") {\n\t\t\t\t\t// Elite analysts avoid rugs and scams entirely\n\t\t\t\t\tif (\n\t\t\t\t\t\t[\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUG_PULL_FAST,\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUG_PULL_SLOW,\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.SCAM_TOKEN,\n\t\t\t\t\t\t].includes(token.scenario)\n\t\t\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\t\t\treturn false;\n\t\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t\t\t// Focus on early-stage quality tokens\n\t\t\t\t\treturn (\n\t\t\t\t\t\ttimeSinceLaunch < 48 && // Within 2 days of launch\n\t\t\t\t\t\t[\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.SUCCESSFUL,\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUNNER_MOON,\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUNNER_STEADY,\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.BLUE_CHIP,\n\t\t\t\t\t\t].includes(token.scenario)\n\t\t\t\t\t);\n\t\t\t\t} else {\n\t\t\t\t\t// Skilled traders might catch some pumps but avoid obvious scams\n\t\t\t\t\treturn (\n\t\t\t\t\t\ttimeSinceLaunch < 72 && // Within 3 days\n\t\t\t\t\t\t![TokenScenario.SCAM_TOKEN].includes(token.scenario)\n\t\t\t\t\t);\n\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t});\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// FOMO traders chase pumps that have already happened\n\t\telse if (actor.archetype === \"fomo_trader\") {\n\t\t\tcandidateTokens = activeTokens.filter((token) => {\n\t\t\t\tconst history = priceHistory.get(token.address) || [];\n\t\t\t\tif (history.length < 10) return false;\n\n\t\t\t\t// Look for tokens that have already pumped significantly\n\t\t\t\tconst recentGain =\n\t\t\t\t\thistory[history.length - 1].price /\n\t\t\t\t\t\thistory[history.length - 10].price -\n\t\t\t\t\t1;\n\t\t\t\treturn recentGain > 0.5; // Already up 50%+\n\t\t\t});\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Pump chasers specifically target pump scenarios\n\t\telse if (actor.archetype === \"pump_chaser\") {\n\t\t\tcandidateTokens = activeTokens.filter((token) => {\n\t\t\t\tconst history = priceHistory.get(token.address) || [];\n\t\t\t\tif (history.length < 5) return false;\n\n\t\t\t\t// Look for rapid price increases\n\t\t\t\tconst recentGain =\n\t\t\t\t\thistory[history.length - 1].price /\n\t\t\t\t\t\thistory[history.length - 5].price -\n\t\t\t\t\t1;\n\t\t\t\treturn recentGain > 0.3; // Up 30%+ recently\n\t\t\t});\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Rug promoters target their preferred scam tokens\n\t\telse if (actor.archetype === \"rug_promoter\") {\n\t\t\tcandidateTokens = activeTokens.filter(\n\t\t\t\t(token) =>\n\t\t\t\t\tactor.tokenPreferences.includes(token.scenario) &&\n\t\t\t\t\ttoken.scenario !== TokenScenario.BLUE_CHIP, // Even rug promoters avoid obvious blue chips\n\t\t\t);\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Apply general token preferences if we still have candidates\n\t\tif (candidateTokens.length === 0) {\n\t\t\tcandidateTokens = activeTokens.filter((token) =>\n\t\t\t\tactor.tokenPreferences.includes(token.scenario),\n\t\t\t);\n\t\t}\n\n\t\tif (candidateTokens.length === 0) return [];\n\n\t\t// Apply timing bias to the candidate tokens\n\t\tconst timedTokens = candidateTokens.filter((token) => {\n\t\t\tconst _history = priceHistory.get(token.address) || [];\n\t\t\tconst timeSinceLaunch =\n\t\t\t\t(currentTime.getTime() - token.launchTime.getTime()) / (1000 * 60 * 60);\n\n\t\t\tswitch (actor.timingBias) {\n\t\t\t\tcase \"early\":\n\t\t\t\t\treturn timeSinceLaunch < 24; // First day only\n\t\t\t\tcase \"middle\":\n\t\t\t\t\treturn timeSinceLaunch >= 24 && timeSinceLaunch < 120; // Day 1-5\n\t\t\t\tcase \"late\":\n\t\t\t\t\treturn timeSinceLaunch >= 72; // After 3 days\n\t\t\t\tdefault:\n\t\t\t\t\treturn true;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t});\n\n\t\tconst finalTokens = timedTokens.length > 0 ? timedTokens : candidateTokens;\n\n\t\t// Select 1-2 tokens (elite analysts are more selective)\n\t\tconst maxTokens = actor.archetype === \"elite_analyst\" ? 1 : 2;\n\t\tconst numTokens = Math.min(\n\t\t\tfinalTokens.length,\n\t\t\tMath.floor(Math.random() * maxTokens) + 1,\n\t\t);\n\n\t\treturn finalTokens.sort(() => Math.random() - 0.5).slice(0, numTokens);\n\t}\n\n\tprivate generateActorCall(\n\t\tactor: ActorConfig,\n\t\ttoken: SimulationToken,\n\t\tpriceHistory: TokenPrice[],\n\t\tcurrentTime: Date,\n\t): SimulatedCallData | null {\n\t\tconst latestPrice = priceHistory[priceHistory.length - 1];\n\t\tif (!latestPrice) return null;\n\n\t\t// Generate message based on actor archetype\n\t\tconst message = this.generateMessage(\n\t\t\tactor,\n\t\t\ttoken.symbol,\n\t\t\ttoken.scenario,\n\t\t\t\"positive\", // Will be overridden based on actor logic\n\t\t);\n\n\t\tif (!message) return null;\n\n\t\t// Determine sentiment based on actor type and market conditions\n\t\tconst sentiment = this.determineActorSentiment(actor, token, priceHistory);\n\n\t\t// Determine conviction based on actor confidence\n\t\tconst conviction = this.determineActorConviction(\n\t\t\tactor,\n\t\t\ttoken,\n\t\t\tpriceHistory,\n\t\t);\n\n\t\treturn {\n\t\t\tcallId: uuidv4() as UUID,\n\t\t\toriginalMessageId: `sim_msg_${uuidv4()}`,\n\t\t\tuserId: actor.id,\n\t\t\tusername: actor.username,\n\t\t\ttimestamp: currentTime.getTime(),\n\t\t\tcontent: message,\n\t\t\ttokenMentioned: token.symbol,\n\t\t\tnameMentioned: token.name,\n\t\t\tcaMentioned: token.address,\n\t\t\tchain: SupportedChain.SOLANA,\n\t\t\tsentiment,\n\t\t\tconviction,\n\t\t\tllmReasoning: `${actor.username} (${actor.archetype}) analyzing ${token.symbol}`,\n\t\t\tcertainty: \"high\",\n\t\t\tfileSource: \"simulation\",\n\t\t\tsimulationMetadata: {\n\t\t\t\ttokenScenario: token.scenario,\n\t\t\t\tactorArchetype: actor.archetype,\n\t\t\t\tpriceAtCall: latestPrice.price,\n\t\t\t\tmarketCapAtCall: latestPrice.marketCap,\n\t\t\t\tliquidityAtCall: latestPrice.liquidity,\n\t\t\t\texpectedOutcome: this.predictOutcome(actor, token),\n\t\t\t},\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate generateMessage(\n\t\tactor: ActorConfig,\n\t\ttokenSymbol: string,\n\t\t_scenario: TokenScenario,\n\t\t_sentiment: string,\n\t): string {\n\t\t// Simple message templates based on archetype\n\t\tconst templates: Record<ActorConfig[\"archetype\"], string[]> = {\n\t\t\telite_analyst: [\n\t\t\t\t`$${tokenSymbol} showing strong fundamentals. This is a long-term hold.`,\n\t\t\t\t`Been researching $${tokenSymbol} - solid team and execution plan. Accumulating here.`,\n\t\t\t],\n\t\t\tskilled_trader: [\n\t\t\t\t`$${tokenSymbol} looking strong here. Adding to position.`,\n\t\t\t\t`Good entry point for $${tokenSymbol}. Risk/reward favorable.`,\n\t\t\t],\n\t\t\tpump_chaser: [\n\t\t\t\t`$${tokenSymbol} is pumping hard! Just aped in!`,\n\t\t\t\t`Holy shit $${tokenSymbol} is flying! This is going to $1!`,\n\t\t\t],\n\t\t\trug_promoter: [\n\t\t\t\t`🚀🚀 $${tokenSymbol} TO THE MOON! 1000X GEM! GET IN NOW! 🚀🚀`,\n\t\t\t\t`$${tokenSymbol} NEXT 100X!!! DEV DOXXED! LIQUIDITY LOCKED! SAFU! 💎💎`,\n\t\t\t],\n\t\t\tfomo_trader: [\n\t\t\t\t`Everyone buying $${tokenSymbol}! I'm in!`,\n\t\t\t\t`$${tokenSymbol} trending everywhere! Don't want to miss this!`,\n\t\t\t],\n\t\t\tcontrarian: [\n\t\t\t\t`$${tokenSymbol} overhyped. Taking opposite position.`,\n\t\t\t\t`While everyone's bullish on $${tokenSymbol}, I see weakness.`,\n\t\t\t],\n\t\t\ttechnical_analyst: [\n\t\t\t\t`$${tokenSymbol} breaking key resistance. Chart looks bullish.`,\n\t\t\t\t`RSI oversold on $${tokenSymbol}. Bounce incoming.`,\n\t\t\t],\n\t\t\tnewbie: [\n\t\t\t\t`Is $${tokenSymbol} a good buy? Thinking about getting some.`,\n\t\t\t\t`Just bought my first $${tokenSymbol}! Hope it goes up!`,\n\t\t\t],\n\t\t\tbot_spammer: [\n\t\t\t\t`💎 $${tokenSymbol} 💎 BUY NOW 💎`,\n\t\t\t\t`$${tokenSymbol} $${tokenSymbol} $${tokenSymbol} 🚀🚀🚀`,\n\t\t\t],\n\t\t};\n\n\t\tconst archetypeTemplates = templates[actor.archetype];\n\t\treturn archetypeTemplates[\n\t\t\tMath.floor(Math.random() * archetypeTemplates.length)\n\t\t];\n\t}\n\n\tprivate determineActorSentiment(\n\t\tactor: ActorConfig,\n\t\ttoken: SimulationToken,\n\t\tpriceHistory: TokenPrice[],\n\t): \"positive\" | \"negative\" | \"neutral\" {\n\t\t// Elite analysts correctly identify token quality\n\t\tif (actor.archetype === \"elite_analyst\") {\n\t\t\t// Positive on good tokens\n\t\t\tif (\n\t\t\t\t[\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.SUCCESSFUL,\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUNNER_MOON,\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUNNER_STEADY,\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.BLUE_CHIP,\n\t\t\t\t].includes(token.scenario)\n\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\treturn \"positive\";\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t// Negative on bad tokens (warnings)\n\t\t\tif (\n\t\t\t\t[\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUG_PULL_FAST,\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUG_PULL_SLOW,\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.SCAM_TOKEN,\n\t\t\t\t].includes(token.scenario)\n\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\treturn \"negative\";\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t\treturn \"neutral\";\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Skilled traders mostly get it right but can be fooled by pump and dumps\n\t\tif (actor.archetype === \"skilled_trader\") {\n\t\t\tif (\n\t\t\t\t[\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.SUCCESSFUL,\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUNNER_MOON,\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUNNER_STEADY,\n\t\t\t\t].includes(token.scenario)\n\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\treturn \"positive\";\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t\tif (\n\t\t\t\t[TokenScenario.RUG_PULL_FAST, TokenScenario.SCAM_TOKEN].includes(\n\t\t\t\t\ttoken.scenario,\n\t\t\t\t)\n\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\treturn Math.random() < 0.7 ? \"negative\" : \"positive\"; // 70% chance to identify scams\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t\tif (token.scenario === TokenScenario.PUMP_AND_DUMP) {\n\t\t\t\t// Might catch the pump\n\t\t\t\tconst timeSinceLaunch = priceHistory.length;\n\t\t\t\treturn timeSinceLaunch < 5 ? \"positive\" : \"negative\";\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t\treturn \"neutral\";\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Rug promoters always positive on rugs\n\t\tif (actor.archetype === \"rug_promoter\") {\n\t\t\tif (\n\t\t\t\t[\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUG_PULL_FAST,\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUG_PULL_SLOW,\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.SCAM_TOKEN,\n\t\t\t\t].includes(token.scenario)\n\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\treturn \"positive\"; // Shilling scams\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t\treturn \"neutral\";\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// FOMO traders are always positive when chasing\n\t\tif (actor.archetype === \"fomo_trader\") {\n\t\t\treturn \"positive\"; // Always bullish when FOMOing\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Pump chasers are positive on anything moving up\n\t\tif (actor.archetype === \"pump_chaser\") {\n\t\t\tconst priceChange =\n\t\t\t\tpriceHistory.length > 5\n\t\t\t\t\t? priceHistory[priceHistory.length - 1].price /\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tpriceHistory[priceHistory.length - 5].price -\n\t\t\t\t\t\t1\n\t\t\t\t\t: 0;\n\t\t\treturn priceChange > 0.1 ? \"positive\" : \"neutral\";\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Contrarians go against recent price action\n\t\tif (actor.archetype === \"contrarian\") {\n\t\t\tconst priceChange =\n\t\t\t\tpriceHistory.length > 10\n\t\t\t\t\t? priceHistory[priceHistory.length - 1].price /\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tpriceHistory[priceHistory.length - 10].price -\n\t\t\t\t\t\t1\n\t\t\t\t\t: 0;\n\t\t\treturn priceChange > 0.2 ? \"negative\" : \"positive\";\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t// Default\n\t\treturn actor.tokenPreferences.includes(token.scenario)\n\t\t\t? \"positive\"\n\t\t\t: \"neutral\";\n\t}\n\n\tprivate determineActorConviction(\n\t\tactor: ActorConfig,\n\t\t_token: SimulationToken,\n\t\tpriceHistory: TokenPrice[],\n\t): Conviction {\n\t\t// Base conviction on actor archetype\n\t\tconst baseConviction =\n\t\t\t{\n\t\t\t\telite_analyst: Conviction.HIGH,\n\t\t\t\tskilled_trader: Conviction.MEDIUM,\n\t\t\t\tpump_chaser: Conviction.HIGH,\n\t\t\t\trug_promoter: Conviction.VERY_HIGH,\n\t\t\t\tfomo_trader: Conviction.MEDIUM,\n\t\t\t\tcontrarian: Conviction.MEDIUM,\n\t\t\t\ttechnical_analyst: Conviction.MEDIUM,\n\t\t\t\tnewbie: Conviction.LOW,\n\t\t\t\tbot_spammer: Conviction.LOW,\n\t\t\t}[actor.archetype] || Conviction.MEDIUM;\n\n\t\t// Adjust based on price action for some archetypes\n\t\tif ([\"pump_chaser\", \"fomo_trader\"].includes(actor.archetype)) {\n\t\t\tconst recentGain =\n\t\t\t\tpriceHistory.length > 5\n\t\t\t\t\t? priceHistory[priceHistory.length - 1].price /\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tpriceHistory[priceHistory.length - 5].price -\n\t\t\t\t\t\t1\n\t\t\t\t\t: 0;\n\n\t\t\tif (recentGain > 0.5) {\n\t\t\t\treturn Conviction.VERY_HIGH;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\n\t\treturn baseConviction;\n\t}\n\n\tprivate predictOutcome(\n\t\tactor: ActorConfig,\n\t\ttoken: SimulationToken,\n\t): \"profit\" | \"loss\" | \"neutral\" {\n\t\t// Predict based on actor skill and token type\n\t\tconst successfulScenarios = [\n\t\t\tTokenScenario.SUCCESSFUL,\n\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUNNER_MOON,\n\t\t\tTokenScenario.BLUE_CHIP,\n\t\t];\n\n\t\tconst isGoodToken = successfulScenarios.includes(token.scenario);\n\t\tconst isSkilled = [\n\t\t\t\"elite_analyst\",\n\t\t\t\"skilled_trader\",\n\t\t\t\"contrarian\",\n\t\t].includes(actor.archetype);\n\n\t\tif (isSkilled && isGoodToken) return \"profit\";\n\t\tif (!isSkilled && !isGoodToken) return \"loss\";\n\t\tif (actor.archetype === \"rug_promoter\" && !isGoodToken) return \"loss\";\n\n\t\treturn \"neutral\";\n\t}\n\n\tprivate calculateActualProfits(\n\t\tcalls: SimulatedCallData[],\n\t\ttokens: Map<string, SimulationToken>,\n\t\tpriceHistory: Map<string, TokenPrice[]>,\n\t): Promise<void> {\n\t\tfor (const call of calls) {\n\t\t\tconst token = tokens.get(call.caMentioned || \"\");\n\t\t\tif (!token) continue;\n\n\t\t\tconst history = priceHistory.get(token.address) || [];\n\t\t\tconst callIndex = history.findIndex(\n\t\t\t\t(p) => p.timestamp.getTime() === call.timestamp,\n\t\t\t);\n\n\t\t\tif (callIndex === -1 || callIndex === history.length - 1) {\n\t\t\t\tcall.simulationMetadata.actualProfit = 0;\n\t\t\t\tcontinue;\n\t\t\t}\n\n\t\t\t// For negative sentiment calls, calculate profit inversely (profit from price going down)\n\t\t\tif (call.sentiment === \"negative\") {\n\t\t\t\tconst entryPrice = history[callIndex].price;\n\t\t\t\tconst exitIndex = Math.min(callIndex + 24, history.length - 1);\n\t\t\t\tconst exitPrice = history[exitIndex].price;\n\n\t\t\t\t// Profit from warning about bad tokens (short position simulation)\n\t\t\t\tconst priceDropPercent = ((entryPrice - exitPrice) / entryPrice) * 100;\n\t\t\t\tcall.simulationMetadata.actualProfit = priceDropPercent;\n\t\t\t\tcontinue;\n\t\t\t}\n\n\t\t\t// For positive sentiment calls\n\t\t\tlet exitIndex: number;\n\t\t\tlet forcedExit = false;\n\n\t\t\t// Check for rug pulls or dumps\n\t\t\tif (\n\t\t\t\t[\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUG_PULL_FAST,\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUG_PULL_SLOW,\n\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.SCAM_TOKEN,\n\t\t\t\t].includes(token.scenario)\n\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\t// Find when the rug happens\n\t\t\t\tlet rugIndex = callIndex;\n\t\t\t\tfor (let i = callIndex + 1; i < history.length; i++) {\n\t\t\t\t\tif (history[i].price < history[callIndex].price * 0.1) {\n\t\t\t\t\t\t// 90% drop = rug\n\t\t\t\t\t\trugIndex = i;\n\t\t\t\t\t\tforcedExit = true;\n\t\t\t\t\t\tbreak;\n\t\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t\texitIndex = rugIndex;\n\t\t\t} else if (token.scenario === TokenScenario.PUMP_AND_DUMP) {\n\t\t\t\t// Find the dump\n\t\t\t\tlet dumpIndex = callIndex;\n\t\t\t\tlet peakPrice = history[callIndex].price;\n\t\t\t\tfor (let i = callIndex + 1; i < history.length; i++) {\n\t\t\t\t\tif (history[i].price > peakPrice) {\n\t\t\t\t\t\tpeakPrice = history[i].price;\n\t\t\t\t\t} else if (history[i].price < peakPrice * 0.3) {\n\t\t\t\t\t\t// 70% drop from peak = dump\n\t\t\t\t\t\tdumpIndex = i;\n\t\t\t\t\t\tforcedExit = true;\n\t\t\t\t\t\tbreak;\n\t\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t\texitIndex = dumpIndex;\n\t\t\t} else {\n\t\t\t\t// Normal exit strategies based on actor type\n\t\t\t\tif (call.simulationMetadata.actorArchetype === \"elite_analyst\") {\n\t\t\t\t\t// Elite analysts hold quality tokens longer\n\t\t\t\t\texitIndex = Math.min(callIndex + 72, history.length - 1); // 3 days\n\t\t\t\t} else if (\n\t\t\t\t\tcall.simulationMetadata.actorArchetype === \"skilled_trader\"\n\t\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\t\t// Skilled traders take profits at reasonable times\n\t\t\t\t\texitIndex = Math.min(callIndex + 48, history.length - 1); // 2 days\n\t\t\t\t} else if (\n\t\t\t\t\t[\"pump_chaser\", \"fomo_trader\"].includes(\n\t\t\t\t\t\tcall.simulationMetadata.actorArchetype,\n\t\t\t\t\t)\n\t\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\t\t// These actors often hold too long and miss the exit\n\t\t\t\t\texitIndex = Math.min(callIndex + 24, history.length - 1); // 1 day\n\t\t\t\t} else {\n\t\t\t\t\t// Default: 24 hour hold\n\t\t\t\t\texitIndex = Math.min(callIndex + 24, history.length - 1);\n\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t}\n\n\t\t\tconst entryPrice = history[callIndex].price;\n\t\t\tconst exitPrice = history[exitIndex].price;\n\n\t\t\t// Apply realistic entry slippage based on actor type\n\t\t\tlet effectiveEntryPrice = entryPrice;\n\n\t\t\tif (\n\t\t\t\t[\"fomo_trader\", \"pump_chaser\"].includes(\n\t\t\t\t\tcall.simulationMetadata.actorArchetype,\n\t\t\t\t)\n\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\t// FOMO traders buy after the pump, paying premium\n\t\t\t\teffectiveEntryPrice = entryPrice * 1.15; // 15% slippage\n\t\t\t} else if (call.simulationMetadata.actorArchetype === \"rug_promoter\") {\n\t\t\t\t// Rug promoters often buy at terrible prices or don't actually buy\n\t\t\t\tif (\n\t\t\t\t\t[\n\t\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUG_PULL_FAST,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.RUG_PULL_SLOW,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tTokenScenario.SCAM_TOKEN,\n\t\t\t\t\t].includes(token.scenario)\n\t\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\t\t// They're promoting rugs - assume they either don't buy or get rugged\n\t\t\t\t\teffectiveEntryPrice = entryPrice * 1.2; // 20% slippage if they buy\n\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t} else if (call.simulationMetadata.actorArchetype === \"elite_analyst\") {\n\t\t\t\t// Elite analysts get good entries\n\t\t\t\teffectiveEntryPrice = entryPrice * 0.98; // 2% better than market\n\t\t\t}\n\n\t\t\t// Apply exit slippage for forced exits (panic selling)\n\t\t\tlet effectiveExitPrice = exitPrice;\n\t\t\tif (\n\t\t\t\tforcedExit &&\n\t\t\t\t[\"pump_chaser\", \"fomo_trader\", \"rug_promoter\"].includes(\n\t\t\t\t\tcall.simulationMetadata.actorArchetype,\n\t\t\t\t)\n\t\t\t) {\n\t\t\t\teffectiveExitPrice = exitPrice * 0.9; // 10% slippage on panic sell\n\t\t\t}\n\n\t\t\tconst profitPercent =\n\t\t\t\t((effectiveExitPrice - effectiveEntryPrice) / effectiveEntryPrice) *\n\t\t\t\t100;\n\n\t\t\tcall.simulationMetadata.actualProfit = profitPercent;\n\t\t}\n\n\t\treturn Promise.resolve();\n\t}\n\n\tprivate async cacheResults(\n\t\tresult: SimulationResult,\n\t\tconfig: SimulationConfig,\n\t): Promise<void> {\n\t\tconst outputDir = config.outputDir;\n\t\tawait fs.mkdir(outputDir, { recursive: true });\n\n\t\t// Save calls\n\t\tconst callsPath = path.join(outputDir, \"simulated_calls.json\");\n\t\tawait fs.writeFile(callsPath, JSON.stringify(result.calls, null, 2));\n\n\t\t// Save tokens\n\t\tconst tokensPath = path.join(outputDir, \"simulated_tokens.json\");\n\t\tawait fs.writeFile(\n\t\t\ttokensPath,\n\t\t\tJSON.stringify(Array.from(result.tokens.entries()), null, 2),\n\t\t);\n\n\t\t// Save price history\n\t\tconst pricesPath = path.join(outputDir, \"price_history.json\");\n\t\tawait fs.writeFile(\n\t\t\tpricesPath,\n\t\t\tJSON.stringify(Array.from(result.priceHistory.entries()), null, 2),\n\t\t);\n\n\t\t// Save performance summary\n\t\tconst perfPath = path.join(outputDir, \"actor_performance.json\");\n\t\tawait fs.writeFile(\n\t\t\tperfPath,\n\t\t\tJSON.stringify(Array.from(result.actorPerformance.entries()), null, 2),\n\t\t);\n\n\t\tconsole.log(`📁 Results cached to ${outputDir}`);\n\t}\n\n\tasync loadCachedSimulation(\n\t\toutputDir: string,\n\t): Promise<SimulationResult | null> {\n\t\ttry {\n\t\t\tconst callsData = await fs.readFile(\n\t\t\t\tpath.join(outputDir, \"simulated_calls.json\"),\n\t\t\t\t\"utf-8\",\n\t\t\t);\n\t\t\tconst tokensData = await fs.readFile(\n\t\t\t\tpath.join(outputDir, \"simulated_tokens.json\"),\n\t\t\t\t\"utf-8\",\n\t\t\t);\n\t\t\tconst pricesData = await fs.readFile(\n\t\t\t\tpath.join(outputDir, \"price_history.json\"),\n\t\t\t\t\"utf-8\",\n\t\t\t);\n\t\t\tconst perfData = await fs.readFile(\n\t\t\t\tpath.join(outputDir, \"actor_performance.json\"),\n\t\t\t\t\"utf-8\",\n\t\t\t);\n\n\t\t\treturn {\n\t\t\t\tcalls: JSON.parse(callsData),\n\t\t\t\ttokens: new Map(JSON.parse(tokensData)),\n\t\t\t\tpriceHistory: new Map(JSON.parse(pricesData)),\n\t\t\t\tactorPerformance: new Map(JSON.parse(perfData)),\n\t\t\t};\n\t\t} catch (error) {\n\t\t\tconsole.error(\"Failed to load 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package/dist/services/tokenSimulationService.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+import { type SimulatedToken } from "../mockPriceService";
+export interface TokenScenario {
+    type: "rug" | "scam" | "runner" | "successful" | "mediocre" | "stagnant" | "bluechip" | "pump_dump" | "slow_bleed";
+    name: string;
+    symbol: string;
+    description: string;
+    initialPrice: number;
+    initialLiquidity: number;
+    initialMarketCap: number;
+    rugTiming?: number;
+    pumpTiming?: number;
+    dumpTiming?: number;
+}
+export declare class TokenSimulationService {
+    private scenarios;
+    constructor();
+    private initializeScenarios;
+    private addScenario;
+    createTokenFromScenario(scenario: TokenScenario): SimulatedToken;
+    private mapScenarioToPerformanceType;
+    private createRugTrajectory;
+    private createScamTrajectory;
+    private createRunnerTrajectory;
+    private createSuccessfulTrajectory;
+    private createMediocreTrajectory;
+    private createStagnantTrajectory;
+    private createBluechipTrajectory;
+    private createPumpDumpTrajectory;
+    private createSlowBleedTrajectory;
+    getAllScenarios(): TokenScenario[];
+    getScenarioBySymbol(symbol: string): TokenScenario | undefined;
+    generateDiverseTokenSet(): SimulatedToken[];
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=tokenSimulationService.d.ts.map

package/dist/services/tokenSimulationService.d.ts.map

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package/dist/services/tokenSimulationService.js

@@ -0,0 +1,297 @@
+import { v4 as uuidv4 } from "uuid";
+import { MockPriceService } from "../mockPriceService.js";
+import { SupportedChain } from "../types.js";
+class TokenSimulationService {
+  scenarios = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  constructor() {
+    this.initializeScenarios();
+  }
+  initializeScenarios() {
+    this.addScenario({
+      type: "rug",
+      name: "FastRug Token",
+      symbol: "FRUG",
+      description: "Rugs within 2 days of launch",
+      initialPrice: 1e-5,
+      initialLiquidity: 5e3,
+      initialMarketCap: 1e4,
+      rugTiming: 2
+    });
+    this.addScenario({
+      type: "rug",
+      name: "SlowRug Token",
+      symbol: "SRUG",
+      description: "Builds trust then rugs after 10 days",
+      initialPrice: 5e-5,
+      initialLiquidity: 2e4,
+      initialMarketCap: 5e4,
+      rugTiming: 10
+    });
+    this.addScenario({
+      type: "scam",
+      name: "LowLiq Scam",
+      symbol: "SCAM",
+      description: "Very low liquidity, manipulated price",
+      initialPrice: 1e-3,
+      initialLiquidity: 500,
+      // Very low
+      initialMarketCap: 5e3
+    });
+    this.addScenario({
+      type: "runner",
+      name: "MoonShot Token",
+      symbol: "MOON",
+      description: "Legitimate project with 50x growth",
+      initialPrice: 1e-5,
+      initialLiquidity: 5e4,
+      initialMarketCap: 1e5
+    });
+    this.addScenario({
+      type: "runner",
+      name: "SteadyGains Token",
+      symbol: "GAIN",
+      description: "Consistent 10x growth over time",
+      initialPrice: 1e-4,
+      initialLiquidity: 3e4,
+      initialMarketCap: 2e5
+    });
+    this.addScenario({
+      type: "successful",
+      name: "SolidProject Token",
+      symbol: "SOLID",
+      description: "Good project with 3x growth",
+      initialPrice: 1e-3,
+      initialLiquidity: 1e5,
+      initialMarketCap: 5e5
+    });
+    this.addScenario({
+      type: "mediocre",
+      name: "CrabWalk Token",
+      symbol: "CRAB",
+      description: "Goes sideways with minor fluctuations",
+      initialPrice: 0.01,
+      initialLiquidity: 5e4,
+      initialMarketCap: 3e5
+    });
+    this.addScenario({
+      type: "stagnant",
+      name: "DeadProject Token",
+      symbol: "DEAD",
+      description: "No volume, slowly dying",
+      initialPrice: 5e-3,
+      initialLiquidity: 1e4,
+      initialMarketCap: 5e4
+    });
+    this.addScenario({
+      type: "bluechip",
+      name: "Established Token",
+      symbol: "BLUE",
+      description: "Already successful, stable growth",
+      initialPrice: 10,
+      initialLiquidity: 5e6,
+      initialMarketCap: 1e8
+    });
+    this.addScenario({
+      type: "pump_dump",
+      name: "PumpDump Token",
+      symbol: "PUMP",
+      description: "Pumps 20x then dumps 95%",
+      initialPrice: 1e-5,
+      initialLiquidity: 15e3,
+      initialMarketCap: 2e4,
+      pumpTiming: 3,
+      dumpTiming: 5
+    });
+    this.addScenario({
+      type: "slow_bleed",
+      name: "BleedOut Token",
+      symbol: "BLEED",
+      description: "Slowly loses value over time",
+      initialPrice: 0.01,
+      initialLiquidity: 4e4,
+      initialMarketCap: 2e5
+    });
+  }
+  addScenario(scenario) {
+    this.scenarios.set(scenario.symbol, scenario);
+  }
+  createTokenFromScenario(scenario) {
+    const address = `${scenario.symbol}${uuidv4().substring(0, 8)}`;
+    let priceTrajectory;
+    switch (scenario.type) {
+      case "rug":
+        priceTrajectory = this.createRugTrajectory(scenario);
+        break;
+      case "scam":
+        priceTrajectory = this.createScamTrajectory(scenario);
+        break;
+      case "runner":
+        priceTrajectory = this.createRunnerTrajectory(scenario);
+        break;
+      case "successful":
+        priceTrajectory = this.createSuccessfulTrajectory(scenario);
+        break;
+      case "mediocre":
+        priceTrajectory = this.createMediocreTrajectory(scenario);
+        break;
+      case "stagnant":
+        priceTrajectory = this.createStagnantTrajectory(scenario);
+        break;
+      case "bluechip":
+        priceTrajectory = this.createBluechipTrajectory(scenario);
+        break;
+      case "pump_dump":
+        priceTrajectory = this.createPumpDumpTrajectory(scenario);
+        break;
+      case "slow_bleed":
+        priceTrajectory = this.createSlowBleedTrajectory(scenario);
+        break;
+      default:
+        priceTrajectory = MockPriceService.neutralTokenTrajectory(
+          scenario.initialPrice
+        );
+    }
+    return {
+      address,
+      symbol: scenario.symbol,
+      name: scenario.name,
+      chain: SupportedChain.SOLANA,
+      performanceType: this.mapScenarioToPerformanceType(scenario.type),
+      priceTrajectory,
+      initialPrice: scenario.initialPrice,
+      liquidity: scenario.initialLiquidity,
+      marketCap: scenario.initialMarketCap
+    };
+  }
+  mapScenarioToPerformanceType(type) {
+    switch (type) {
+      case "rug":
+      case "scam":
+      case "pump_dump":
+      case "slow_bleed":
+        return "bad";
+      case "runner":
+      case "successful":
+      case "bluechip":
+        return "good";
+      default:
+        return "neutral";
+    }
+  }
+  createRugTrajectory(scenario) {
+    const { rugTiming } = scenario;
+    if (rugTiming === void 0) {
+      throw new Error("Rug scenario requires rugTiming");
+    }
+    return (step) => {
+      if (step < rugTiming) {
+        return scenario.initialPrice * 1.5 ** step;
+      } else {
+        return scenario.initialPrice * 1e-3;
+      }
+    };
+  }
+  createScamTrajectory(scenario) {
+    return (step) => {
+      const volatility = 0.5;
+      const trend = -0.1;
+      const random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * volatility;
+      return scenario.initialPrice * (1 + trend + random) ** step;
+    };
+  }
+  createRunnerTrajectory(scenario) {
+    return (step) => {
+      const baseGrowth = scenario.symbol === "MOON" ? 0.15 : 0.08;
+      const consolidationPeriod = 5;
+      const isConsolidating = step % consolidationPeriod < 2;
+      const growth = isConsolidating ? 0 : baseGrowth;
+      const minorVolatility = (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.1;
+      return scenario.initialPrice * (1 + growth + minorVolatility) ** step;
+    };
+  }
+  createSuccessfulTrajectory(scenario) {
+    return (step) => {
+      const growth = 0.03;
+      const volatility = 0.05;
+      const random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * volatility;
+      return scenario.initialPrice * (1 + growth + random) ** step;
+    };
+  }
+  createMediocreTrajectory(scenario) {
+    return (_step) => {
+      const volatility = 0.1;
+      const random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * volatility;
+      return scenario.initialPrice * (1 + random);
+    };
+  }
+  createStagnantTrajectory(scenario) {
+    return (step) => {
+      const decay = -0.02;
+      const decreasedVolatility = 0.02 * Math.exp(-step * 0.1);
+      const random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * decreasedVolatility;
+      return scenario.initialPrice * (1 + decay + random) ** step;
+    };
+  }
+  createBluechipTrajectory(scenario) {
+    return (step) => {
+      const growth = 0.01;
+      const lowVolatility = 0.03;
+      const random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * lowVolatility;
+      return scenario.initialPrice * (1 + growth + random) ** step;
+    };
+  }
+  createPumpDumpTrajectory(scenario) {
+    const { pumpTiming, dumpTiming } = scenario;
+    if (pumpTiming === void 0 || dumpTiming === void 0) {
+      throw new Error("Pump/dump scenario requires pumpTiming and dumpTiming");
+    }
+    return (step) => {
+      if (step < pumpTiming) {
+        return scenario.initialPrice * (1 + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.1);
+      } else if (step >= pumpTiming && step < dumpTiming) {
+        const pumpStep = step - pumpTiming + 1;
+        return scenario.initialPrice * 5 ** pumpStep;
+      } else {
+        const peakPrice = scenario.initialPrice * 5 ** (dumpTiming - pumpTiming);
+        return peakPrice * 0.05;
+      }
+    };
+  }
+  createSlowBleedTrajectory(scenario) {
+    return (step) => {
+      const baseDecline = -0.03;
+      const rallyChance = 0.2;
+      const isRally = Math.random() < rallyChance;
+      const movement = isRally ? 0.05 : baseDecline;
+      const volatility = 0.05;
+      const random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * volatility;
+      return scenario.initialPrice * (1 + movement + random) ** step;
+    };
+  }
+  getAllScenarios() {
+    return Array.from(this.scenarios.values());
+  }
+  getScenarioBySymbol(symbol) {
+    return this.scenarios.get(symbol);
+  }
+  generateDiverseTokenSet() {
+    const tokens = [];
+    for (const scenario of this.scenarios.values()) {
+      const instances = scenario.type === "bluechip" ? 1 : Math.floor(Math.random() * 3) + 1;
+      for (let i = 0; i < instances; i++) {
+        const token = this.createTokenFromScenario(scenario);
+        if (i > 0) {
+          token.initialPrice *= 0.5 + Math.random();
+          token.liquidity = token.liquidity ? token.liquidity * (0.5 + Math.random()) : void 0;
+          token.marketCap = token.marketCap ? token.marketCap * (0.5 + Math.random()) : void 0;
+        }
+        tokens.push(token);
+      }
+    }
+    return tokens;
+  }
+}
+export {
+  TokenSimulationService
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=tokenSimulationService.js.map

package/dist/services/tokenSimulationService.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../../src/services/tokenSimulationService.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { v4 as uuidv4 } from \"uuid\";\nimport { MockPriceService, type SimulatedToken } from \"../mockPriceService.js\";\nimport { SupportedChain } from \"../types.js\";\n\nexport interface TokenScenario {\n\ttype:\n\t\t| \"rug\"\n\t\t| \"scam\"\n\t\t| \"runner\"\n\t\t| \"successful\"\n\t\t| \"mediocre\"\n\t\t| \"stagnant\"\n\t\t| \"bluechip\"\n\t\t| \"pump_dump\"\n\t\t| \"slow_bleed\";\n\tname: string;\n\tsymbol: string;\n\tdescription: string;\n\tinitialPrice: number;\n\tinitialLiquidity: number;\n\tinitialMarketCap: number;\n\trugTiming?: number; // Step when rug happens\n\tpumpTiming?: number; // Step when pump happens\n\tdumpTiming?: number; // Step when dump happens\n}\n\nexport class TokenSimulationService {\n\tprivate scenarios: Map<string, TokenScenario> = new Map();\n\n\tconstructor() {\n\t\tthis.initializeScenarios();\n\t}\n\n\tprivate initializeScenarios() {\n\t\t// Rug pulls - different timings\n\t\tthis.addScenario({\n\t\t\ttype: \"rug\",\n\t\t\tname: \"FastRug Token\",\n\t\t\tsymbol: \"FRUG\",\n\t\t\tdescription: \"Rugs within 2 days of launch\",\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.00001,\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 5000,\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 10000,\n\t\t\trugTiming: 2,\n\t\t});\n\n\t\tthis.addScenario({\n\t\t\ttype: \"rug\",\n\t\t\tname: \"SlowRug Token\",\n\t\t\tsymbol: \"SRUG\",\n\t\t\tdescription: \"Builds trust then rugs after 10 days\",\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.00005,\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 20000,\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 50000,\n\t\t\trugTiming: 10,\n\t\t});\n\n\t\t// Scams - low liquidity, suspicious patterns\n\t\tthis.addScenario({\n\t\t\ttype: \"scam\",\n\t\t\tname: \"LowLiq Scam\",\n\t\t\tsymbol: \"SCAM\",\n\t\t\tdescription: \"Very low liquidity, manipulated price\",\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.001,\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 500, // Very low\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 5000,\n\t\t});\n\n\t\t// Runners - sustained growth\n\t\tthis.addScenario({\n\t\t\ttype: \"runner\",\n\t\t\tname: \"MoonShot Token\",\n\t\t\tsymbol: \"MOON\",\n\t\t\tdescription: \"Legitimate project with 50x growth\",\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.00001,\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 50000,\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 100000,\n\t\t});\n\n\t\tthis.addScenario({\n\t\t\ttype: \"runner\",\n\t\t\tname: \"SteadyGains Token\",\n\t\t\tsymbol: \"GAIN\",\n\t\t\tdescription: \"Consistent 10x growth over time\",\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.0001,\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 30000,\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 200000,\n\t\t});\n\n\t\t// Successful but not runners\n\t\tthis.addScenario({\n\t\t\ttype: \"successful\",\n\t\t\tname: \"SolidProject Token\",\n\t\t\tsymbol: \"SOLID\",\n\t\t\tdescription: \"Good project with 3x growth\",\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.001,\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 100000,\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 500000,\n\t\t});\n\n\t\t// Mediocre - sideways movement\n\t\tthis.addScenario({\n\t\t\ttype: \"mediocre\",\n\t\t\tname: \"CrabWalk Token\",\n\t\t\tsymbol: \"CRAB\",\n\t\t\tdescription: \"Goes sideways with minor fluctuations\",\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.01,\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 50000,\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 300000,\n\t\t});\n\n\t\t// Stagnant - no volume, dying\n\t\tthis.addScenario({\n\t\t\ttype: \"stagnant\",\n\t\t\tname: \"DeadProject Token\",\n\t\t\tsymbol: \"DEAD\",\n\t\t\tdescription: \"No volume, slowly dying\",\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.005,\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 10000,\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 50000,\n\t\t});\n\n\t\t// Blue chip - already established\n\t\tthis.addScenario({\n\t\t\ttype: \"bluechip\",\n\t\t\tname: \"Established Token\",\n\t\t\tsymbol: \"BLUE\",\n\t\t\tdescription: \"Already successful, stable growth\",\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 10.0,\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 5000000,\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 100000000,\n\t\t});\n\n\t\t// Pump and dump\n\t\tthis.addScenario({\n\t\t\ttype: \"pump_dump\",\n\t\t\tname: \"PumpDump Token\",\n\t\t\tsymbol: \"PUMP\",\n\t\t\tdescription: \"Pumps 20x then dumps 95%\",\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.00001,\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 15000,\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 20000,\n\t\t\tpumpTiming: 3,\n\t\t\tdumpTiming: 5,\n\t\t});\n\n\t\t// Slow bleed\n\t\tthis.addScenario({\n\t\t\ttype: \"slow_bleed\",\n\t\t\tname: \"BleedOut Token\",\n\t\t\tsymbol: \"BLEED\",\n\t\t\tdescription: \"Slowly loses value over time\",\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: 0.01,\n\t\t\tinitialLiquidity: 40000,\n\t\t\tinitialMarketCap: 200000,\n\t\t});\n\t}\n\n\tprivate addScenario(scenario: TokenScenario) {\n\t\tthis.scenarios.set(scenario.symbol, scenario);\n\t}\n\n\tcreateTokenFromScenario(scenario: TokenScenario): SimulatedToken {\n\t\tconst address = `${scenario.symbol}${uuidv4().substring(0, 8)}`;\n\n\t\tlet priceTrajectory: (step: number) => number;\n\n\t\tswitch (scenario.type) {\n\t\t\tcase \"rug\":\n\t\t\t\tpriceTrajectory = this.createRugTrajectory(scenario);\n\t\t\t\tbreak;\n\t\t\tcase \"scam\":\n\t\t\t\tpriceTrajectory = this.createScamTrajectory(scenario);\n\t\t\t\tbreak;\n\t\t\tcase \"runner\":\n\t\t\t\tpriceTrajectory = this.createRunnerTrajectory(scenario);\n\t\t\t\tbreak;\n\t\t\tcase \"successful\":\n\t\t\t\tpriceTrajectory = this.createSuccessfulTrajectory(scenario);\n\t\t\t\tbreak;\n\t\t\tcase \"mediocre\":\n\t\t\t\tpriceTrajectory = this.createMediocreTrajectory(scenario);\n\t\t\t\tbreak;\n\t\t\tcase \"stagnant\":\n\t\t\t\tpriceTrajectory = this.createStagnantTrajectory(scenario);\n\t\t\t\tbreak;\n\t\t\tcase \"bluechip\":\n\t\t\t\tpriceTrajectory = this.createBluechipTrajectory(scenario);\n\t\t\t\tbreak;\n\t\t\tcase \"pump_dump\":\n\t\t\t\tpriceTrajectory = this.createPumpDumpTrajectory(scenario);\n\t\t\t\tbreak;\n\t\t\tcase \"slow_bleed\":\n\t\t\t\tpriceTrajectory = this.createSlowBleedTrajectory(scenario);\n\t\t\t\tbreak;\n\t\t\tdefault:\n\t\t\t\tpriceTrajectory = MockPriceService.neutralTokenTrajectory(\n\t\t\t\t\tscenario.initialPrice,\n\t\t\t\t);\n\t\t}\n\n\t\treturn {\n\t\t\taddress,\n\t\t\tsymbol: scenario.symbol,\n\t\t\tname: scenario.name,\n\t\t\tchain: SupportedChain.SOLANA,\n\t\t\tperformanceType: this.mapScenarioToPerformanceType(scenario.type),\n\t\t\tpriceTrajectory,\n\t\t\tinitialPrice: scenario.initialPrice,\n\t\t\tliquidity: scenario.initialLiquidity,\n\t\t\tmarketCap: scenario.initialMarketCap,\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate mapScenarioToPerformanceType(\n\t\ttype: TokenScenario[\"type\"],\n\t): SimulatedToken[\"performanceType\"] {\n\t\tswitch (type) {\n\t\t\tcase \"rug\":\n\t\t\tcase \"scam\":\n\t\t\tcase \"pump_dump\":\n\t\t\tcase \"slow_bleed\":\n\t\t\t\treturn \"bad\";\n\t\t\tcase \"runner\":\n\t\t\tcase \"successful\":\n\t\t\tcase \"bluechip\":\n\t\t\t\treturn \"good\";\n\t\t\tdefault:\n\t\t\t\treturn \"neutral\";\n\t\t}\n\t}\n\n\tprivate createRugTrajectory(\n\t\tscenario: TokenScenario,\n\t): (step: number) => number {\n\t\tconst { rugTiming } = scenario;\n\t\tif (rugTiming === undefined) {\n\t\t\tthrow new Error(\"Rug scenario requires rugTiming\");\n\t\t}\n\t\treturn (step: number) => {\n\t\t\tif (step < rugTiming) {\n\t\t\t\t// Price increases before rug to build trust\n\t\t\t\treturn scenario.initialPrice * 1.5 ** step;\n\t\t\t} else {\n\t\t\t\t// Rug pull - price drops to near zero\n\t\t\t\treturn scenario.initialPrice * 0.001;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate createScamTrajectory(\n\t\tscenario: TokenScenario,\n\t): (step: number) => number {\n\t\treturn (step: number) => {\n\t\t\t// Highly volatile with overall downward trend\n\t\t\tconst volatility = 0.5;\n\t\t\tconst trend = -0.1;\n\t\t\tconst random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * volatility;\n\t\t\treturn scenario.initialPrice * (1 + trend + random) ** step;\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate createRunnerTrajectory(\n\t\tscenario: TokenScenario,\n\t): (step: number) => number {\n\t\treturn (step: number) => {\n\t\t\t// Strong upward trend with some consolidation\n\t\t\tconst baseGrowth = scenario.symbol === \"MOON\" ? 0.15 : 0.08;\n\t\t\tconst consolidationPeriod = 5;\n\t\t\tconst isConsolidating = step % consolidationPeriod < 2;\n\t\t\tconst growth = isConsolidating ? 0 : baseGrowth;\n\t\t\tconst minorVolatility = (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.1;\n\t\t\treturn scenario.initialPrice * (1 + growth + minorVolatility) ** step;\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate createSuccessfulTrajectory(\n\t\tscenario: TokenScenario,\n\t): (step: number) => number {\n\t\treturn (step: number) => {\n\t\t\t// Moderate growth with stability\n\t\t\tconst growth = 0.03;\n\t\t\tconst volatility = 0.05;\n\t\t\tconst random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * volatility;\n\t\t\treturn scenario.initialPrice * (1 + growth + random) ** step;\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate createMediocreTrajectory(\n\t\tscenario: TokenScenario,\n\t): (step: number) => number {\n\t\treturn (_step: number) => {\n\t\t\t// Sideways movement\n\t\t\tconst volatility = 0.1;\n\t\t\tconst random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * volatility;\n\t\t\treturn scenario.initialPrice * (1 + random);\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate createStagnantTrajectory(\n\t\tscenario: TokenScenario,\n\t): (step: number) => number {\n\t\treturn (step: number) => {\n\t\t\t// Slow death with decreasing volume (reflected in price decline)\n\t\t\tconst decay = -0.02;\n\t\t\tconst decreasedVolatility = 0.02 * Math.exp(-step * 0.1); // Volatility decreases over time\n\t\t\tconst random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * decreasedVolatility;\n\t\t\treturn scenario.initialPrice * (1 + decay + random) ** step;\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate createBluechipTrajectory(\n\t\tscenario: TokenScenario,\n\t): (step: number) => number {\n\t\treturn (step: number) => {\n\t\t\t// Stable with minor growth\n\t\t\tconst growth = 0.01;\n\t\t\tconst lowVolatility = 0.03;\n\t\t\tconst random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * lowVolatility;\n\t\t\treturn scenario.initialPrice * (1 + growth + random) ** step;\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate createPumpDumpTrajectory(\n\t\tscenario: TokenScenario,\n\t): (step: number) => number {\n\t\tconst { pumpTiming, dumpTiming } = scenario;\n\t\tif (pumpTiming === undefined || dumpTiming === undefined) {\n\t\t\tthrow new Error(\"Pump/dump scenario requires pumpTiming and dumpTiming\");\n\t\t}\n\t\treturn (step: number) => {\n\t\t\tif (step < pumpTiming) {\n\t\t\t\t// Normal trading\n\t\t\t\treturn scenario.initialPrice * (1 + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.1);\n\t\t\t} else if (step >= pumpTiming && step < dumpTiming) {\n\t\t\t\t// Pump phase\n\t\t\t\tconst pumpStep = step - pumpTiming + 1;\n\t\t\t\treturn scenario.initialPrice * 5 ** pumpStep;\n\t\t\t} else {\n\t\t\t\t// Dump phase - lose 95% of peak value\n\t\t\t\tconst peakPrice =\n\t\t\t\t\tscenario.initialPrice * 5 ** (dumpTiming - pumpTiming);\n\t\t\t\treturn peakPrice * 0.05;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tprivate createSlowBleedTrajectory(\n\t\tscenario: TokenScenario,\n\t): (step: number) => number {\n\t\treturn (step: number) => {\n\t\t\t// Consistent decline with false hope rallies\n\t\t\tconst baseDecline = -0.03;\n\t\t\tconst rallyChance = 0.2;\n\t\t\tconst isRally = Math.random() < rallyChance;\n\t\t\tconst movement = isRally ? 0.05 : baseDecline;\n\t\t\tconst volatility = 0.05;\n\t\t\tconst random = (Math.random() - 0.5) * volatility;\n\t\t\treturn scenario.initialPrice * (1 + movement + random) ** step;\n\t\t};\n\t}\n\n\tgetAllScenarios(): TokenScenario[] {\n\t\treturn Array.from(this.scenarios.values());\n\t}\n\n\tgetScenarioBySymbol(symbol: string): TokenScenario | undefined {\n\t\treturn this.scenarios.get(symbol);\n\t}\n\n\tgenerateDiverseTokenSet(): SimulatedToken[] {\n\t\tconst tokens: SimulatedToken[] = [];\n\n\t\t// Generate multiple instances of each scenario type\n\t\tfor (const scenario of this.scenarios.values()) {\n\t\t\t// Create 1-3 instances of each scenario type\n\t\t\tconst instances =\n\t\t\t\tscenario.type === \"bluechip\" ? 1 : Math.floor(Math.random() * 3) + 1;\n\n\t\t\tfor (let i = 0; i < instances; i++) {\n\t\t\t\tconst token = this.createTokenFromScenario(scenario);\n\t\t\t\t// Add some variation to the initial parameters\n\t\t\t\tif (i > 0) {\n\t\t\t\t\ttoken.initialPrice *= 0.5 + 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package/dist/services/trustScoreOptimizer.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
+import { type SimulationConfig, type SimulationResult } from "./simulationRunner";
+export interface TrustScoreResult {
+    userId: string;
+    username: string;
+    calculatedScore: number;
+    expectedScore: number;
+    difference: number;
+    metrics: {
+        totalCalls: number;
+        profitableCalls: number;
+        averageProfit: number;
+        winRate: number;
+        sharpeRatio: number;
+        alpha: number;
+        volumePenalty: number;
+        consistency: number;
+    };
+}
+export interface OptimizationResult {
+    scores: TrustScoreResult[];
+    accuracy: {
+        mae: number;
+        rmse: number;
+        correlation: number;
+        rankingAccuracy: number;
+    };
+    suggestions: string[];
+}
+export interface TrustScoreParameters {
+    profitWeight: number;
+    consistencyWeight: number;
+    volumeWeight: number;
+    alphaWeight: number;
+    sharpeWeight: number;
+    minCallsThreshold: number;
+    volumePenaltyThreshold: number;
+    timeDecayFactor: number;
+    rugPullPenalty: number;
+}
+export declare class TrustScoreOptimizer {
+    private simulationRunner;
+    private currentParams;
+    private balancedCalculator;
+    constructor();
+    /**
+     * Run a full optimization cycle
+     */
+    runOptimizationCycle(simulationConfig?: SimulationConfig, useCache?: boolean): Promise<OptimizationResult>;
+    /**
+     * Get simulation data, either from cache or by running new simulation
+     */
+    private getSimulationData;
+    /**
+     * Create default set of actors for testing
+     */
+    private createDefaultActors;
+    /**
+     * Calculate detailed metrics for an actor
+     */
+    private calculateMetrics;
+    /**
+     * Calculate Sharpe ratio
+     */
+    private calculateSharpeRatio;
+    /**
+     * Calculate market return (average of all token performances)
+     */
+    private calculateMarketReturn;
+    /**
+     * Calculate consistency score
+     */
+    private calculateConsistency;
+    /**
+     * Final optimized trust score calculation
+     */
+    calculateFinalTrustScore(metrics: TrustScoreResult["metrics"], archetype?: string, rugPromotionPenalty?: number, goodCallBonus?: number): number;
+    /**
+     * Enhanced trust score calculation with token quality consideration
+     */
+    calculateTrustScoresEnhanced(simulationData: SimulationResult): Promise<TrustScoreResult[]>;
+    /**
+     * Evaluate accuracy of calculated scores vs expected
+     */
+    private evaluateAccuracy;
+    /**
+     * Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient
+     */
+    private calculateCorrelation;
+    /**
+     * Calculate ranking accuracy (% of correctly ordered pairs)
+     */
+    private calculateRankingAccuracy;
+    /**
+     * Generate optimization suggestions based on results
+     */
+    private generateSuggestions;
+    /**
+     * Log detailed results
+     */
+    private logResults;
+    /**
+     * Grid search for optimal parameters
+     */
+    optimizeParameters(parameterRanges: Partial<Record<keyof TrustScoreParameters, number[]>>, simulationConfig?: SimulationConfig): Promise<TrustScoreParameters>;
+    /**
+     * Generate all combinations of parameters for grid search
+     */
+    private generateParameterCombinations;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=trustScoreOptimizer.d.ts.map

package/dist/services/trustScoreOptimizer.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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