@elaraai/east-py-datascience 1.0.30 → 1.0.31

package/dist/src/causal/causal.d.ts

@@ -202,6 +202,20 @@ export declare const BalanceRowType: StructType<{
     readonly control_mean: FloatType;
     /** Standardized mean difference, (mt-mc)/sqrt((vt+vc)/2). */
     readonly std_diff: FloatType;
+    /** Post-adjustment SMD (weighted means, same pooled-sd denominator) — proof the
+     *  adjustment closed the gap. `some` only for `propensity_score_weighting` with
+     *  computable scores; `none` for the regression estimator (which doesn't
+     *  reweight) or a failed propensity fit.
+     *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `BalanceRowType.std_diff_adjusted` */
+    readonly std_diff_adjusted: OptionType<FloatType>;
+}>;
+/** One observed confounder placed on the sensitivity strengths axis — the simulated
+ *  strength whose effect-shift equals the shift from omitting that confounder, so
+ *  "tips at 0.9" reads as "a hidden cause as strong as `column`".
+ *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `SensitivityBenchmarkType` */
+export declare const SensitivityBenchmarkType: StructType<{
+    readonly column: StringType;
+    readonly strength: FloatType;
 }>;
 /**
  * Graded common-support tier — the honest three-state reading of overlap a
@@ -266,6 +280,13 @@ export declare const RefutationType: StructType<{
     readonly sensitivity: OptionType<StructType<{
         readonly strengths: VectorType<FloatType>;
         readonly effects: VectorType<FloatType>;
+        /** Observed-confounder benchmarks on the SAME strengths axis (empty when
+         *  none is computable) — lets a consumer say "survives a hidden cause as
+         *  strong as `incoming_grade`". Clamped to the last simulated strength. */
+        readonly benchmarks: ArrayType<StructType<{
+            readonly column: StringType;
+            readonly strength: FloatType;
+        }>>;
     }>>;
     /** Sign-prior check (when `config.expected_sign` is set): `some(true)` if a
      *  material effect matches the expected direction, `some(false)` if it points the
@@ -303,6 +324,28 @@ export declare const ExperimentVerdictType: VariantType<{
     /** The estimand can't be formed (treatment barely varies). */
     readonly not_estimable: StringType;
 }>;
+/**
+ * Machine-readable reason a verdict fell short of `causal`. Every FAILING gate
+ * is emitted (the verdict tag is chosen by severity precedence, but a consumer
+ * explaining "why modest?" needs all of them); empty for `causal` (all gates
+ * passed) and for the two refusal verdicts (the tag itself is the reason).
+ *
+ * twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `VerdictReasonType`
+ */
+export declare const VerdictReasonType: VariantType<{
+    /** The placebo (shuffle) refuter didn't collapse to ~0. */
+    readonly placebo_failed: NullType;
+    /** |effect| below the materiality band (0.10 × outcome_sd). */
+    readonly not_material: NullType;
+    /** The adjusted CI straddles zero. */
+    readonly ci_spans_zero: NullType;
+    /** Material + CI-clear but pointing against `config.expected_sign`. */
+    readonly wrong_sign: NullType;
+    /** Common support cleared the refuse gate but is below `strong_overlap`. */
+    readonly thin_support: NullType;
+    /** E-value below the (opt-in) `evalue_floor`. */
+    readonly low_robustness: NullType;
+}>;
 /**
  * The complete, honest result of {@link causal_experiment}. `adjusted` is
  * `none` when the engine refuses (positivity / no-variation); the `verdict` tag
@@ -326,6 +369,9 @@ export declare const CausalExperimentResultType: StructType<{
     readonly n_total: IntegerType;
     readonly n_treated: IntegerType;
     readonly n_control: IntegerType;
+    /** Rows OUTSIDE the propensity common support — units with no like-for-like
+     *  counterpart on the other side. Display-only; nothing is dropped from the
+     *  estimate. */
     readonly n_dropped: IntegerType;
     /** Per-confounder before-adjustment imbalance, most-imbalanced first. */
     readonly balance: ArrayType<StructType<{
@@ -337,6 +383,12 @@ export declare const CausalExperimentResultType: StructType<{
         readonly control_mean: FloatType;
         /** Standardized mean difference, (mt-mc)/sqrt((vt+vc)/2). */
         readonly std_diff: FloatType;
+        /** Post-adjustment SMD (weighted means, same pooled-sd denominator) — proof the
+         *  adjustment closed the gap. `some` only for `propensity_score_weighting` with
+         *  computable scores; `none` for the regression estimator (which doesn't
+         *  reweight) or a failed propensity fit.
+         *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `BalanceRowType.std_diff_adjusted` */
+        readonly std_diff_adjusted: OptionType<FloatType>;
     }>>;
     readonly overlap: StructType<{
         /** Propensity histogram (20 bins over [0,1]) for the treated arm. */
@@ -381,6 +433,13 @@ export declare const CausalExperimentResultType: StructType<{
         readonly sensitivity: OptionType<StructType<{
             readonly strengths: VectorType<FloatType>;
             readonly effects: VectorType<FloatType>;
+            /** Observed-confounder benchmarks on the SAME strengths axis (empty when
+             *  none is computable) — lets a consumer say "survives a hidden cause as
+             *  strong as `incoming_grade`". Clamped to the last simulated strength. */
+            readonly benchmarks: ArrayType<StructType<{
+                readonly column: StringType;
+                readonly strength: FloatType;
+            }>>;
         }>>;
         /** Sign-prior check (when `config.expected_sign` is set): `some(true)` if a
          *  material effect matches the expected direction, `some(false)` if it points the
@@ -414,6 +473,31 @@ export declare const CausalExperimentResultType: StructType<{
         /** The estimand can't be formed (treatment barely varies). */
         readonly not_estimable: StringType;
     }>;
+    /** Why the verdict fell short of `causal` — every failing gate (empty for
+     *  `causal` and for the refusals, where the tag itself is the reason). */
+    readonly verdict_reasons: ArrayType<VariantType<{
+        /** The placebo (shuffle) refuter didn't collapse to ~0. */
+        readonly placebo_failed: NullType;
+        /** |effect| below the materiality band (0.10 × outcome_sd). */
+        readonly not_material: NullType;
+        /** The adjusted CI straddles zero. */
+        readonly ci_spans_zero: NullType;
+        /** Material + CI-clear but pointing against `config.expected_sign`. */
+        readonly wrong_sign: NullType;
+        /** Common support cleared the refuse gate but is below `strong_overlap`. */
+        readonly thin_support: NullType;
+        /** E-value below the (opt-in) `evalue_floor`. */
+        readonly low_robustness: NullType;
+    }>>;
+    /** The outcome's standard deviation — the scale the materiality band is on. */
+    readonly outcome_sd: FloatType;
+    /** The materiality band the verdict applied (0.10 × outcome_sd), echoed so a
+     *  consumer can say "smaller than what would matter here (±x)". */
+    readonly materiality_threshold: FloatType;
+    /** Raw outcome mean of the treated arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+    readonly treated_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
+    /** Raw outcome mean of the control arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+    readonly control_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
 }>;
 /**
  * One declarative causal experiment — naive vs adjusted effect, balance,
@@ -522,6 +606,9 @@ export declare const causal_experiment: import("@elaraai/east").GenericPlatformD
     readonly n_total: IntegerType;
     readonly n_treated: IntegerType;
     readonly n_control: IntegerType;
+    /** Rows OUTSIDE the propensity common support — units with no like-for-like
+     *  counterpart on the other side. Display-only; nothing is dropped from the
+     *  estimate. */
     readonly n_dropped: IntegerType;
     /** Per-confounder before-adjustment imbalance, most-imbalanced first. */
     readonly balance: ArrayType<StructType<{
@@ -533,6 +620,12 @@ export declare const causal_experiment: import("@elaraai/east").GenericPlatformD
         readonly control_mean: FloatType;
         /** Standardized mean difference, (mt-mc)/sqrt((vt+vc)/2). */
         readonly std_diff: FloatType;
+        /** Post-adjustment SMD (weighted means, same pooled-sd denominator) — proof the
+         *  adjustment closed the gap. `some` only for `propensity_score_weighting` with
+         *  computable scores; `none` for the regression estimator (which doesn't
+         *  reweight) or a failed propensity fit.
+         *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `BalanceRowType.std_diff_adjusted` */
+        readonly std_diff_adjusted: OptionType<FloatType>;
     }>>;
     readonly overlap: StructType<{
         /** Propensity histogram (20 bins over [0,1]) for the treated arm. */
@@ -577,6 +670,13 @@ export declare const causal_experiment: import("@elaraai/east").GenericPlatformD
         readonly sensitivity: OptionType<StructType<{
             readonly strengths: VectorType<FloatType>;
             readonly effects: VectorType<FloatType>;
+            /** Observed-confounder benchmarks on the SAME strengths axis (empty when
+             *  none is computable) — lets a consumer say "survives a hidden cause as
+             *  strong as `incoming_grade`". Clamped to the last simulated strength. */
+            readonly benchmarks: ArrayType<StructType<{
+                readonly column: StringType;
+                readonly strength: FloatType;
+            }>>;
         }>>;
         /** Sign-prior check (when `config.expected_sign` is set): `some(true)` if a
          *  material effect matches the expected direction, `some(false)` if it points the
@@ -610,6 +710,31 @@ export declare const causal_experiment: import("@elaraai/east").GenericPlatformD
         /** The estimand can't be formed (treatment barely varies). */
         readonly not_estimable: StringType;
     }>;
+    /** Why the verdict fell short of `causal` — every failing gate (empty for
+     *  `causal` and for the refusals, where the tag itself is the reason). */
+    readonly verdict_reasons: ArrayType<VariantType<{
+        /** The placebo (shuffle) refuter didn't collapse to ~0. */
+        readonly placebo_failed: NullType;
+        /** |effect| below the materiality band (0.10 × outcome_sd). */
+        readonly not_material: NullType;
+        /** The adjusted CI straddles zero. */
+        readonly ci_spans_zero: NullType;
+        /** Material + CI-clear but pointing against `config.expected_sign`. */
+        readonly wrong_sign: NullType;
+        /** Common support cleared the refuse gate but is below `strong_overlap`. */
+        readonly thin_support: NullType;
+        /** E-value below the (opt-in) `evalue_floor`. */
+        readonly low_robustness: NullType;
+    }>>;
+    /** The outcome's standard deviation — the scale the materiality band is on. */
+    readonly outcome_sd: FloatType;
+    /** The materiality band the verdict applied (0.10 × outcome_sd), echoed so a
+     *  consumer can say "smaller than what would matter here (±x)". */
+    readonly materiality_threshold: FloatType;
+    /** Raw outcome mean of the treated arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+    readonly treated_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
+    /** Raw outcome mean of the control arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+    readonly control_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
 }>>;
 /** Why the trial is sized the way it is — set from the verdict. */
 export declare const DesignBasisType: VariantType<{
@@ -820,6 +945,9 @@ export declare const causal_design_validation: import("@elaraai/east").GenericPl
     readonly n_total: IntegerType;
     readonly n_treated: IntegerType;
     readonly n_control: IntegerType;
+    /** Rows OUTSIDE the propensity common support — units with no like-for-like
+     *  counterpart on the other side. Display-only; nothing is dropped from the
+     *  estimate. */
     readonly n_dropped: IntegerType;
     /** Per-confounder before-adjustment imbalance, most-imbalanced first. */
     readonly balance: ArrayType<StructType<{
@@ -831,6 +959,12 @@ export declare const causal_design_validation: import("@elaraai/east").GenericPl
         readonly control_mean: FloatType;
         /** Standardized mean difference, (mt-mc)/sqrt((vt+vc)/2). */
         readonly std_diff: FloatType;
+        /** Post-adjustment SMD (weighted means, same pooled-sd denominator) — proof the
+         *  adjustment closed the gap. `some` only for `propensity_score_weighting` with
+         *  computable scores; `none` for the regression estimator (which doesn't
+         *  reweight) or a failed propensity fit.
+         *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `BalanceRowType.std_diff_adjusted` */
+        readonly std_diff_adjusted: OptionType<FloatType>;
     }>>;
     readonly overlap: StructType<{
         /** Propensity histogram (20 bins over [0,1]) for the treated arm. */
@@ -875,6 +1009,13 @@ export declare const causal_design_validation: import("@elaraai/east").GenericPl
         readonly sensitivity: OptionType<StructType<{
             readonly strengths: VectorType<FloatType>;
             readonly effects: VectorType<FloatType>;
+            /** Observed-confounder benchmarks on the SAME strengths axis (empty when
+             *  none is computable) — lets a consumer say "survives a hidden cause as
+             *  strong as `incoming_grade`". Clamped to the last simulated strength. */
+            readonly benchmarks: ArrayType<StructType<{
+                readonly column: StringType;
+                readonly strength: FloatType;
+            }>>;
         }>>;
         /** Sign-prior check (when `config.expected_sign` is set): `some(true)` if a
          *  material effect matches the expected direction, `some(false)` if it points the
@@ -908,6 +1049,31 @@ export declare const causal_design_validation: import("@elaraai/east").GenericPl
         /** The estimand can't be formed (treatment barely varies). */
         readonly not_estimable: StringType;
     }>;
+    /** Why the verdict fell short of `causal` — every failing gate (empty for
+     *  `causal` and for the refusals, where the tag itself is the reason). */
+    readonly verdict_reasons: ArrayType<VariantType<{
+        /** The placebo (shuffle) refuter didn't collapse to ~0. */
+        readonly placebo_failed: NullType;
+        /** |effect| below the materiality band (0.10 × outcome_sd). */
+        readonly not_material: NullType;
+        /** The adjusted CI straddles zero. */
+        readonly ci_spans_zero: NullType;
+        /** Material + CI-clear but pointing against `config.expected_sign`. */
+        readonly wrong_sign: NullType;
+        /** Common support cleared the refuse gate but is below `strong_overlap`. */
+        readonly thin_support: NullType;
+        /** E-value below the (opt-in) `evalue_floor`. */
+        readonly low_robustness: NullType;
+    }>>;
+    /** The outcome's standard deviation — the scale the materiality band is on. */
+    readonly outcome_sd: FloatType;
+    /** The materiality band the verdict applied (0.10 × outcome_sd), echoed so a
+     *  consumer can say "smaller than what would matter here (±x)". */
+    readonly materiality_threshold: FloatType;
+    /** Raw outcome mean of the treated arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+    readonly treated_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
+    /** Raw outcome mean of the control arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+    readonly control_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
 }>, StructType<{
     /** Significance level (default 0.05). */
     readonly alpha: OptionType<FloatType>;
@@ -1124,6 +1290,16 @@ export declare const CausalTypes: {
         readonly control_mean: FloatType;
         /** Standardized mean difference, (mt-mc)/sqrt((vt+vc)/2). */
         readonly std_diff: FloatType;
+        /** Post-adjustment SMD (weighted means, same pooled-sd denominator) — proof the
+         *  adjustment closed the gap. `some` only for `propensity_score_weighting` with
+         *  computable scores; `none` for the regression estimator (which doesn't
+         *  reweight) or a failed propensity fit.
+         *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `BalanceRowType.std_diff_adjusted` */
+        readonly std_diff_adjusted: OptionType<FloatType>;
+    }>;
+    readonly SensitivityBenchmarkType: StructType<{
+        readonly column: StringType;
+        readonly strength: FloatType;
     }>;
     readonly SupportStrengthType: VariantType<{
         /** Below `min_overlap` — no like-for-like comparison (engine refuses). */
@@ -1176,6 +1352,13 @@ export declare const CausalTypes: {
         readonly sensitivity: OptionType<StructType<{
             readonly strengths: VectorType<FloatType>;
             readonly effects: VectorType<FloatType>;
+            /** Observed-confounder benchmarks on the SAME strengths axis (empty when
+             *  none is computable) — lets a consumer say "survives a hidden cause as
+             *  strong as `incoming_grade`". Clamped to the last simulated strength. */
+            readonly benchmarks: ArrayType<StructType<{
+                readonly column: StringType;
+                readonly strength: FloatType;
+            }>>;
         }>>;
         /** Sign-prior check (when `config.expected_sign` is set): `some(true)` if a
          *  material effect matches the expected direction, `some(false)` if it points the
@@ -1208,6 +1391,20 @@ export declare const CausalTypes: {
         /** The estimand can't be formed (treatment barely varies). */
         readonly not_estimable: StringType;
     }>;
+    readonly VerdictReasonType: VariantType<{
+        /** The placebo (shuffle) refuter didn't collapse to ~0. */
+        readonly placebo_failed: NullType;
+        /** |effect| below the materiality band (0.10 × outcome_sd). */
+        readonly not_material: NullType;
+        /** The adjusted CI straddles zero. */
+        readonly ci_spans_zero: NullType;
+        /** Material + CI-clear but pointing against `config.expected_sign`. */
+        readonly wrong_sign: NullType;
+        /** Common support cleared the refuse gate but is below `strong_overlap`. */
+        readonly thin_support: NullType;
+        /** E-value below the (opt-in) `evalue_floor`. */
+        readonly low_robustness: NullType;
+    }>;
     readonly CausalExperimentResultType: StructType<{
         /** The raw (unadjusted) mean difference — always computable. */
         readonly naive: FloatType;
@@ -1226,6 +1423,9 @@ export declare const CausalTypes: {
         readonly n_total: IntegerType;
         readonly n_treated: IntegerType;
         readonly n_control: IntegerType;
+        /** Rows OUTSIDE the propensity common support — units with no like-for-like
+         *  counterpart on the other side. Display-only; nothing is dropped from the
+         *  estimate. */
         readonly n_dropped: IntegerType;
         /** Per-confounder before-adjustment imbalance, most-imbalanced first. */
         readonly balance: ArrayType<StructType<{
@@ -1237,6 +1437,12 @@ export declare const CausalTypes: {
             readonly control_mean: FloatType;
             /** Standardized mean difference, (mt-mc)/sqrt((vt+vc)/2). */
             readonly std_diff: FloatType;
+            /** Post-adjustment SMD (weighted means, same pooled-sd denominator) — proof the
+             *  adjustment closed the gap. `some` only for `propensity_score_weighting` with
+             *  computable scores; `none` for the regression estimator (which doesn't
+             *  reweight) or a failed propensity fit.
+             *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `BalanceRowType.std_diff_adjusted` */
+            readonly std_diff_adjusted: OptionType<FloatType>;
         }>>;
         readonly overlap: StructType<{
             /** Propensity histogram (20 bins over [0,1]) for the treated arm. */
@@ -1281,6 +1487,13 @@ export declare const CausalTypes: {
             readonly sensitivity: OptionType<StructType<{
                 readonly strengths: VectorType<FloatType>;
                 readonly effects: VectorType<FloatType>;
+                /** Observed-confounder benchmarks on the SAME strengths axis (empty when
+                 *  none is computable) — lets a consumer say "survives a hidden cause as
+                 *  strong as `incoming_grade`". Clamped to the last simulated strength. */
+                readonly benchmarks: ArrayType<StructType<{
+                    readonly column: StringType;
+                    readonly strength: FloatType;
+                }>>;
             }>>;
             /** Sign-prior check (when `config.expected_sign` is set): `some(true)` if a
              *  material effect matches the expected direction, `some(false)` if it points the
@@ -1314,6 +1527,31 @@ export declare const CausalTypes: {
             /** The estimand can't be formed (treatment barely varies). */
             readonly not_estimable: StringType;
         }>;
+        /** Why the verdict fell short of `causal` — every failing gate (empty for
+         *  `causal` and for the refusals, where the tag itself is the reason). */
+        readonly verdict_reasons: ArrayType<VariantType<{
+            /** The placebo (shuffle) refuter didn't collapse to ~0. */
+            readonly placebo_failed: NullType;
+            /** |effect| below the materiality band (0.10 × outcome_sd). */
+            readonly not_material: NullType;
+            /** The adjusted CI straddles zero. */
+            readonly ci_spans_zero: NullType;
+            /** Material + CI-clear but pointing against `config.expected_sign`. */
+            readonly wrong_sign: NullType;
+            /** Common support cleared the refuse gate but is below `strong_overlap`. */
+            readonly thin_support: NullType;
+            /** E-value below the (opt-in) `evalue_floor`. */
+            readonly low_robustness: NullType;
+        }>>;
+        /** The outcome's standard deviation — the scale the materiality band is on. */
+        readonly outcome_sd: FloatType;
+        /** The materiality band the verdict applied (0.10 × outcome_sd), echoed so a
+         *  consumer can say "smaller than what would matter here (±x)". */
+        readonly materiality_threshold: FloatType;
+        /** Raw outcome mean of the treated arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+        readonly treated_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
+        /** Raw outcome mean of the control arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+        readonly control_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
     }>;
     readonly DesignBasisType: VariantType<{
         /** Clear effect → power the trial to detect the observed effect. */
@@ -1541,6 +1779,9 @@ export declare const Causal: {
         readonly n_total: IntegerType;
         readonly n_treated: IntegerType;
         readonly n_control: IntegerType;
+        /** Rows OUTSIDE the propensity common support — units with no like-for-like
+         *  counterpart on the other side. Display-only; nothing is dropped from the
+         *  estimate. */
         readonly n_dropped: IntegerType;
         /** Per-confounder before-adjustment imbalance, most-imbalanced first. */
         readonly balance: ArrayType<StructType<{
@@ -1552,6 +1793,12 @@ export declare const Causal: {
             readonly control_mean: FloatType;
             /** Standardized mean difference, (mt-mc)/sqrt((vt+vc)/2). */
             readonly std_diff: FloatType;
+            /** Post-adjustment SMD (weighted means, same pooled-sd denominator) — proof the
+             *  adjustment closed the gap. `some` only for `propensity_score_weighting` with
+             *  computable scores; `none` for the regression estimator (which doesn't
+             *  reweight) or a failed propensity fit.
+             *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `BalanceRowType.std_diff_adjusted` */
+            readonly std_diff_adjusted: OptionType<FloatType>;
         }>>;
         readonly overlap: StructType<{
             /** Propensity histogram (20 bins over [0,1]) for the treated arm. */
@@ -1596,6 +1843,13 @@ export declare const Causal: {
             readonly sensitivity: OptionType<StructType<{
                 readonly strengths: VectorType<FloatType>;
                 readonly effects: VectorType<FloatType>;
+                /** Observed-confounder benchmarks on the SAME strengths axis (empty when
+                 *  none is computable) — lets a consumer say "survives a hidden cause as
+                 *  strong as `incoming_grade`". Clamped to the last simulated strength. */
+                readonly benchmarks: ArrayType<StructType<{
+                    readonly column: StringType;
+                    readonly strength: FloatType;
+                }>>;
             }>>;
             /** Sign-prior check (when `config.expected_sign` is set): `some(true)` if a
              *  material effect matches the expected direction, `some(false)` if it points the
@@ -1629,6 +1883,31 @@ export declare const Causal: {
             /** The estimand can't be formed (treatment barely varies). */
             readonly not_estimable: StringType;
         }>;
+        /** Why the verdict fell short of `causal` — every failing gate (empty for
+         *  `causal` and for the refusals, where the tag itself is the reason). */
+        readonly verdict_reasons: ArrayType<VariantType<{
+            /** The placebo (shuffle) refuter didn't collapse to ~0. */
+            readonly placebo_failed: NullType;
+            /** |effect| below the materiality band (0.10 × outcome_sd). */
+            readonly not_material: NullType;
+            /** The adjusted CI straddles zero. */
+            readonly ci_spans_zero: NullType;
+            /** Material + CI-clear but pointing against `config.expected_sign`. */
+            readonly wrong_sign: NullType;
+            /** Common support cleared the refuse gate but is below `strong_overlap`. */
+            readonly thin_support: NullType;
+            /** E-value below the (opt-in) `evalue_floor`. */
+            readonly low_robustness: NullType;
+        }>>;
+        /** The outcome's standard deviation — the scale the materiality band is on. */
+        readonly outcome_sd: FloatType;
+        /** The materiality band the verdict applied (0.10 × outcome_sd), echoed so a
+         *  consumer can say "smaller than what would matter here (±x)". */
+        readonly materiality_threshold: FloatType;
+        /** Raw outcome mean of the treated arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+        readonly treated_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
+        /** Raw outcome mean of the control arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+        readonly control_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
     }>>;
     /** Design the real controlled trial that would validate an experiment result. */
     readonly designValidation: import("@elaraai/east").GenericPlatformDefinition<readonly ["T"], readonly [ArrayType<unknown>, StructType<{
@@ -1729,6 +2008,9 @@ export declare const Causal: {
         readonly n_total: IntegerType;
         readonly n_treated: IntegerType;
         readonly n_control: IntegerType;
+        /** Rows OUTSIDE the propensity common support — units with no like-for-like
+         *  counterpart on the other side. Display-only; nothing is dropped from the
+         *  estimate. */
         readonly n_dropped: IntegerType;
         /** Per-confounder before-adjustment imbalance, most-imbalanced first. */
         readonly balance: ArrayType<StructType<{
@@ -1740,6 +2022,12 @@ export declare const Causal: {
             readonly control_mean: FloatType;
             /** Standardized mean difference, (mt-mc)/sqrt((vt+vc)/2). */
             readonly std_diff: FloatType;
+            /** Post-adjustment SMD (weighted means, same pooled-sd denominator) — proof the
+             *  adjustment closed the gap. `some` only for `propensity_score_weighting` with
+             *  computable scores; `none` for the regression estimator (which doesn't
+             *  reweight) or a failed propensity fit.
+             *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `BalanceRowType.std_diff_adjusted` */
+            readonly std_diff_adjusted: OptionType<FloatType>;
         }>>;
         readonly overlap: StructType<{
             /** Propensity histogram (20 bins over [0,1]) for the treated arm. */
@@ -1784,6 +2072,13 @@ export declare const Causal: {
             readonly sensitivity: OptionType<StructType<{
                 readonly strengths: VectorType<FloatType>;
                 readonly effects: VectorType<FloatType>;
+                /** Observed-confounder benchmarks on the SAME strengths axis (empty when
+                 *  none is computable) — lets a consumer say "survives a hidden cause as
+                 *  strong as `incoming_grade`". Clamped to the last simulated strength. */
+                readonly benchmarks: ArrayType<StructType<{
+                    readonly column: StringType;
+                    readonly strength: FloatType;
+                }>>;
             }>>;
             /** Sign-prior check (when `config.expected_sign` is set): `some(true)` if a
              *  material effect matches the expected direction, `some(false)` if it points the
@@ -1817,6 +2112,31 @@ export declare const Causal: {
             /** The estimand can't be formed (treatment barely varies). */
             readonly not_estimable: StringType;
         }>;
+        /** Why the verdict fell short of `causal` — every failing gate (empty for
+         *  `causal` and for the refusals, where the tag itself is the reason). */
+        readonly verdict_reasons: ArrayType<VariantType<{
+            /** The placebo (shuffle) refuter didn't collapse to ~0. */
+            readonly placebo_failed: NullType;
+            /** |effect| below the materiality band (0.10 × outcome_sd). */
+            readonly not_material: NullType;
+            /** The adjusted CI straddles zero. */
+            readonly ci_spans_zero: NullType;
+            /** Material + CI-clear but pointing against `config.expected_sign`. */
+            readonly wrong_sign: NullType;
+            /** Common support cleared the refuse gate but is below `strong_overlap`. */
+            readonly thin_support: NullType;
+            /** E-value below the (opt-in) `evalue_floor`. */
+            readonly low_robustness: NullType;
+        }>>;
+        /** The outcome's standard deviation — the scale the materiality band is on. */
+        readonly outcome_sd: FloatType;
+        /** The materiality band the verdict applied (0.10 × outcome_sd), echoed so a
+         *  consumer can say "smaller than what would matter here (±x)". */
+        readonly materiality_threshold: FloatType;
+        /** Raw outcome mean of the treated arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+        readonly treated_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
+        /** Raw outcome mean of the control arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+        readonly control_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
     }>, StructType<{
         /** Significance level (default 0.05). */
         readonly alpha: OptionType<FloatType>;
@@ -2033,6 +2353,16 @@ export declare const Causal: {
             readonly control_mean: FloatType;
             /** Standardized mean difference, (mt-mc)/sqrt((vt+vc)/2). */
             readonly std_diff: FloatType;
+            /** Post-adjustment SMD (weighted means, same pooled-sd denominator) — proof the
+             *  adjustment closed the gap. `some` only for `propensity_score_weighting` with
+             *  computable scores; `none` for the regression estimator (which doesn't
+             *  reweight) or a failed propensity fit.
+             *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `BalanceRowType.std_diff_adjusted` */
+            readonly std_diff_adjusted: OptionType<FloatType>;
+        }>;
+        readonly SensitivityBenchmarkType: StructType<{
+            readonly column: StringType;
+            readonly strength: FloatType;
         }>;
         readonly SupportStrengthType: VariantType<{
             /** Below `min_overlap` — no like-for-like comparison (engine refuses). */
@@ -2085,6 +2415,13 @@ export declare const Causal: {
             readonly sensitivity: OptionType<StructType<{
                 readonly strengths: VectorType<FloatType>;
                 readonly effects: VectorType<FloatType>;
+                /** Observed-confounder benchmarks on the SAME strengths axis (empty when
+                 *  none is computable) — lets a consumer say "survives a hidden cause as
+                 *  strong as `incoming_grade`". Clamped to the last simulated strength. */
+                readonly benchmarks: ArrayType<StructType<{
+                    readonly column: StringType;
+                    readonly strength: FloatType;
+                }>>;
             }>>;
             /** Sign-prior check (when `config.expected_sign` is set): `some(true)` if a
              *  material effect matches the expected direction, `some(false)` if it points the
@@ -2117,6 +2454,20 @@ export declare const Causal: {
             /** The estimand can't be formed (treatment barely varies). */
             readonly not_estimable: StringType;
         }>;
+        readonly VerdictReasonType: VariantType<{
+            /** The placebo (shuffle) refuter didn't collapse to ~0. */
+            readonly placebo_failed: NullType;
+            /** |effect| below the materiality band (0.10 × outcome_sd). */
+            readonly not_material: NullType;
+            /** The adjusted CI straddles zero. */
+            readonly ci_spans_zero: NullType;
+            /** Material + CI-clear but pointing against `config.expected_sign`. */
+            readonly wrong_sign: NullType;
+            /** Common support cleared the refuse gate but is below `strong_overlap`. */
+            readonly thin_support: NullType;
+            /** E-value below the (opt-in) `evalue_floor`. */
+            readonly low_robustness: NullType;
+        }>;
         readonly CausalExperimentResultType: StructType<{
             /** The raw (unadjusted) mean difference — always computable. */
             readonly naive: FloatType;
@@ -2135,6 +2486,9 @@ export declare const Causal: {
             readonly n_total: IntegerType;
             readonly n_treated: IntegerType;
             readonly n_control: IntegerType;
+            /** Rows OUTSIDE the propensity common support — units with no like-for-like
+             *  counterpart on the other side. Display-only; nothing is dropped from the
+             *  estimate. */
             readonly n_dropped: IntegerType;
             /** Per-confounder before-adjustment imbalance, most-imbalanced first. */
             readonly balance: ArrayType<StructType<{
@@ -2146,6 +2500,12 @@ export declare const Causal: {
                 readonly control_mean: FloatType;
                 /** Standardized mean difference, (mt-mc)/sqrt((vt+vc)/2). */
                 readonly std_diff: FloatType;
+                /** Post-adjustment SMD (weighted means, same pooled-sd denominator) — proof the
+                 *  adjustment closed the gap. `some` only for `propensity_score_weighting` with
+                 *  computable scores; `none` for the regression estimator (which doesn't
+                 *  reweight) or a failed propensity fit.
+                 *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `BalanceRowType.std_diff_adjusted` */
+                readonly std_diff_adjusted: OptionType<FloatType>;
             }>>;
             readonly overlap: StructType<{
                 /** Propensity histogram (20 bins over [0,1]) for the treated arm. */
@@ -2190,6 +2550,13 @@ export declare const Causal: {
                 readonly sensitivity: OptionType<StructType<{
                     readonly strengths: VectorType<FloatType>;
                     readonly effects: VectorType<FloatType>;
+                    /** Observed-confounder benchmarks on the SAME strengths axis (empty when
+                     *  none is computable) — lets a consumer say "survives a hidden cause as
+                     *  strong as `incoming_grade`". Clamped to the last simulated strength. */
+                    readonly benchmarks: ArrayType<StructType<{
+                        readonly column: StringType;
+                        readonly strength: FloatType;
+                    }>>;
                 }>>;
                 /** Sign-prior check (when `config.expected_sign` is set): `some(true)` if a
                  *  material effect matches the expected direction, `some(false)` if it points the
@@ -2223,6 +2590,31 @@ export declare const Causal: {
                 /** The estimand can't be formed (treatment barely varies). */
                 readonly not_estimable: StringType;
             }>;
+            /** Why the verdict fell short of `causal` — every failing gate (empty for
+             *  `causal` and for the refusals, where the tag itself is the reason). */
+            readonly verdict_reasons: ArrayType<VariantType<{
+                /** The placebo (shuffle) refuter didn't collapse to ~0. */
+                readonly placebo_failed: NullType;
+                /** |effect| below the materiality band (0.10 × outcome_sd). */
+                readonly not_material: NullType;
+                /** The adjusted CI straddles zero. */
+                readonly ci_spans_zero: NullType;
+                /** Material + CI-clear but pointing against `config.expected_sign`. */
+                readonly wrong_sign: NullType;
+                /** Common support cleared the refuse gate but is below `strong_overlap`. */
+                readonly thin_support: NullType;
+                /** E-value below the (opt-in) `evalue_floor`. */
+                readonly low_robustness: NullType;
+            }>>;
+            /** The outcome's standard deviation — the scale the materiality band is on. */
+            readonly outcome_sd: FloatType;
+            /** The materiality band the verdict applied (0.10 × outcome_sd), echoed so a
+             *  consumer can say "smaller than what would matter here (±x)". */
+            readonly materiality_threshold: FloatType;
+            /** Raw outcome mean of the treated arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+            readonly treated_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
+            /** Raw outcome mean of the control arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+            readonly control_outcome_mean: OptionType<FloatType>;
         }>;
         readonly DesignBasisType: VariantType<{
             /** Clear effect → power the trial to detect the observed effect. */

package/dist/src/causal/causal.d.ts.map

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package/dist/src/causal/causal.js

@@ -157,6 +157,20 @@ export const BalanceRowType = StructType({
     control_mean: FloatType,
     /** Standardized mean difference, (mt-mc)/sqrt((vt+vc)/2). */
     std_diff: FloatType,
+    /** Post-adjustment SMD (weighted means, same pooled-sd denominator) — proof the
+     *  adjustment closed the gap. `some` only for `propensity_score_weighting` with
+     *  computable scores; `none` for the regression estimator (which doesn't
+     *  reweight) or a failed propensity fit.
+     *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `BalanceRowType.std_diff_adjusted` */
+    std_diff_adjusted: OptionType(FloatType),
+});
+/** One observed confounder placed on the sensitivity strengths axis — the simulated
+ *  strength whose effect-shift equals the shift from omitting that confounder, so
+ *  "tips at 0.9" reads as "a hidden cause as strong as `column`".
+ *  twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `SensitivityBenchmarkType` */
+export const SensitivityBenchmarkType = StructType({
+    column: StringType,
+    strength: FloatType,
 });
 /**
  * Graded common-support tier — the honest three-state reading of overlap a
@@ -214,6 +228,10 @@ export const RefutationType = StructType({
     sensitivity: OptionType(StructType({
         strengths: VectorType(FloatType),
         effects: VectorType(FloatType),
+        /** Observed-confounder benchmarks on the SAME strengths axis (empty when
+         *  none is computable) — lets a consumer say "survives a hidden cause as
+         *  strong as `incoming_grade`". Clamped to the last simulated strength. */
+        benchmarks: ArrayType(SensitivityBenchmarkType),
     })),
     /** Sign-prior check (when `config.expected_sign` is set): `some(true)` if a
      *  material effect matches the expected direction, `some(false)` if it points the
@@ -251,6 +269,28 @@ export const ExperimentVerdictType = VariantType({
     /** The estimand can't be formed (treatment barely varies). */
     not_estimable: StringType,
 });
+/**
+ * Machine-readable reason a verdict fell short of `causal`. Every FAILING gate
+ * is emitted (the verdict tag is chosen by severity precedence, but a consumer
+ * explaining "why modest?" needs all of them); empty for `causal` (all gates
+ * passed) and for the two refusal verdicts (the tag itself is the reason).
+ *
+ * twin: causal_impl.py / e3-ui `VerdictReasonType`
+ */
+export const VerdictReasonType = VariantType({
+    /** The placebo (shuffle) refuter didn't collapse to ~0. */
+    placebo_failed: NullType,
+    /** |effect| below the materiality band (0.10 × outcome_sd). */
+    not_material: NullType,
+    /** The adjusted CI straddles zero. */
+    ci_spans_zero: NullType,
+    /** Material + CI-clear but pointing against `config.expected_sign`. */
+    wrong_sign: NullType,
+    /** Common support cleared the refuse gate but is below `strong_overlap`. */
+    thin_support: NullType,
+    /** E-value below the (opt-in) `evalue_floor`. */
+    low_robustness: NullType,
+});
 /**
  * The complete, honest result of {@link causal_experiment}. `adjusted` is
  * `none` when the engine refuses (positivity / no-variation); the `verdict` tag
@@ -265,6 +305,9 @@ export const CausalExperimentResultType = StructType({
     n_total: IntegerType,
     n_treated: IntegerType,
     n_control: IntegerType,
+    /** Rows OUTSIDE the propensity common support — units with no like-for-like
+     *  counterpart on the other side. Display-only; nothing is dropped from the
+     *  estimate. */
     n_dropped: IntegerType,
     /** Per-confounder before-adjustment imbalance, most-imbalanced first. */
     balance: ArrayType(BalanceRowType),
@@ -273,6 +316,18 @@ export const CausalExperimentResultType = StructType({
     /** ALE dose-response of `dose_feature` (present when `config.dose_feature` is set). */
     dose_response: OptionType(DoseResponseType),
     verdict: ExperimentVerdictType,
+    /** Why the verdict fell short of `causal` — every failing gate (empty for
+     *  `causal` and for the refusals, where the tag itself is the reason). */
+    verdict_reasons: ArrayType(VerdictReasonType),
+    /** The outcome's standard deviation — the scale the materiality band is on. */
+    outcome_sd: FloatType,
+    /** The materiality band the verdict applied (0.10 × outcome_sd), echoed so a
+     *  consumer can say "smaller than what would matter here (±x)". */
+    materiality_threshold: FloatType,
+    /** Raw outcome mean of the treated arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+    treated_outcome_mean: OptionType(FloatType),
+    /** Raw outcome mean of the control arm (`none` when the arm is empty). */
+    control_outcome_mean: OptionType(FloatType),
 });
 /**
  * Type-parameter placeholder for the generic row struct `T`. At a call site the
@@ -393,11 +448,13 @@ export const CausalTypes = {
     RefuteSpecType,
     CausalExperimentConfigType,
     BalanceRowType,
+    SensitivityBenchmarkType,
     SupportStrengthType,
     OverlapDiagnosticType,
     RefutationType,
     DoseResponseType,
     ExperimentVerdictType,
+    VerdictReasonType,
     CausalExperimentResultType,
     // Validation-design contract
     DesignBasisType,

package/dist/src/causal/causal.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@elaraai/east-py-datascience",
-  "version": "1.0.30",
+  "version": "1.0.31",
   "description": "East Data Science - ML/optimization platform functions for East (TypeScript definitions)",
   "main": "dist/src/index.js",
   "types": "dist/src/index.d.ts",
@@ -47,8 +47,8 @@
     "typescript": "~5.9.2"
   },
   "peerDependencies": {
-    "@elaraai/east": "1.0.30",
-    "@elaraai/east-node-std": "1.0.30"
+    "@elaraai/east": "1.0.31",
+    "@elaraai/east-node-std": "1.0.31"
   },
   "scripts": {
     "build": "tsc",