@elaraai/e3-ui 1.0.12 → 1.0.14

package/dist/src/experiment/types.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/src/experiment/types.js

@@ -3,328 +3,290 @@
  * Dual-licensed under AGPL-3.0 and commercial license. See LICENSE for details.
  */
 /**
- * The `Experiment` render contract — the **e3-ui-owned** boundary types the
- * component reads and the developer's bound functions return.
+ * The `Experiment` render contract.
  *
- * @remarks
- * These are *not* causal-library types: `e3-ui` never imports
- * `east-py-datascience`. They are the small contract a sign-flip experiment
- * surface needs — the causal quantities (`effect` / `ci` / the ALE vectors /
- * the refuter numbers) plus the two additions the surface requires (`naive`
- * for the raw-vs-adjusted comparison and `balance` for the confounder table).
+ * These types are **replicated verbatim (snake_case)** from
+ * `east-py-datascience`'s `Causal.Types.*`, so the engine's `Causal.experiment`
+ * result unifies **structurally** with the component's binding — replicate, don't
+ * share (East type equality is structural; `e3-ui` never imports
+ * `east-py-datascience`). Keep these byte-identical to the datascience
+ * definitions — they are kept in sync by hand.
  *
- * The split follows the **string-vs-variant rule** ({@link ExperimentSpecType}):
- *
- * - **Closed choices are variants** — the user's Advanced estimator / target /
- *   trim selections ({@link EstimatorType}, {@link TargetUnitsType},
- *   {@link TrimType}). They mirror the causal vocabulary *structurally*, so the
- *   developer's ~10-line `spec → CausalEffectConfig` bridge is an identity map
- *   on these fields — but the type lives here, owned by the surface.
- * - **Column references are strings** — `treatment` / `outcome` / `confounders`
- *   are field names introspected from the bound dataset's row struct (the
- *   `Table` pattern), so they are open over whatever columns the data has.
- * - **Presentation is derived, never stored** — no `tone` / bar width / label /
- *   sentence appears here. The renderer composes every word and colour from the
- *   numbers + the user's chosen column names.
- *
- * Where a shape overlaps the library (`Ci`, the ALE vectors) it is
- * **structurally identical**, so values unify by shape across the package
- * boundary with no shared package and no conversion.
- *
- * Reached via `Experiment.Types.*` (like `Table.Types.*`), not public named
- * exports — users only touch them to type the bound functions / seed datasets.
+ * The user edits an {@link ExperimentConfigType} (the staged "question + method")
+ * and **Apply** runs the one bound `experiment` function, which returns an
+ * {@link ExperimentResultType} — the naive vs adjusted effect, confounder
+ * balance, propensity overlap, a robustness summary, and an honesty
+ * {@link ExperimentVerdictType}. `adjusted` is `none` when the engine refuses.
  *
  * @packageDocumentation
  */
-import { StringType, FloatType, IntegerType, BooleanType, NullType, DateTimeType, ArrayType, StructType, VariantType, OptionType, DictType, VectorType, } from '@elaraai/east';
+import { StructType, VariantType, OptionType, ArrayType, DictType, FloatType, IntegerType, BooleanType, StringType, NullType, DateTimeType, VectorType, } from '@elaraai/east';
 import { Slice } from '@elaraai/east-ui';
 // ============================================================================
-// Advanced choices — closed vocabularies → variants (mirror the causal terms).
+// Shared vocabulary (= Causal.Types.*)
 // ============================================================================
-/**
- * Inverse-propensity weighting scheme for the
- * {@link EstimatorType | propensity-weighting} estimator. Structurally mirrors
- * the causal library's weighting-scheme variant.
- *
- * @property ips_weight - Raw inverse propensity weights.
- * @property ips_stabilized_weight - Stabilised weights (recommended; lower variance).
- * @property ips_normalized_weight - Normalised inverse propensity weights.
- */
+/** A confidence interval. */
+export const CiType = StructType({ lower: FloatType, upper: FloatType });
+/** Inverse-propensity weighting scheme. */
 export const WeightingSchemeType = VariantType({
     ips_weight: NullType,
     ips_stabilized_weight: NullType,
     ips_normalized_weight: NullType,
 });
-/**
- * How the like-for-like comparison is estimated — the user's "method" choice in
- * the Advanced panel. Closed set, so a variant; structurally mirrors the causal
- * estimator vocabulary.
- *
- * @property linear_regression - Regress the outcome on treatment + confounders.
- * @property propensity_score_weighting - Re-weight rows by treatment
- *   propensity (binary treatment); carries the optional
- *   {@link WeightingSchemeType}.
- */
+/** Backdoor-adjusted effect estimator. */
 export const EstimatorType = VariantType({
     linear_regression: NullType,
     propensity_score_weighting: StructType({
         weighting_scheme: OptionType(WeightingSchemeType),
     }),
 });
-/**
- * Which population the effect is reported for — the user's "who" choice. Closed
- * set, so a variant; structurally mirrors the causal target-units vocabulary.
- *
- * @property ate - Everyone (average treatment effect).
- * @property att - The treated group (average effect on the treated).
- * @property atc - The untreated group (average effect on the controls).
- */
+/** Population the effect is reported for. */
 export const TargetUnitsType = VariantType({
     ate: NullType,
     att: NullType,
     atc: NullType,
 });
-/**
- * Whether un-matchable rows are dropped before estimating — the user's "trim"
- * choice. Closed set, so a variant; structurally mirrors the causal
- * propensity-trim vocabulary.
- *
- * @property overlap - Keep only the common-support overlap of the two groups.
- * @property bounds - Keep rows whose propensity is inside explicit `lower` /
- *   `upper` bounds.
- */
-export const TrimType = VariantType({
-    overlap: NullType,
-    bounds: StructType({
-        lower: FloatType,
-        upper: FloatType,
-    }),
+/** Bootstrap confidence-interval configuration. */
+export const BootstrapConfigType = StructType({
+    reps: IntegerType,
+    cluster_column: OptionType(StringType),
+    confidence_level: OptionType(FloatType),
+});
+/** Which robustness checks to run. */
+export const RefuteSpecType = StructType({
+    /** Permuted-treatment negative control — a real effect should vanish. */
+    placebo: BooleanType,
+    /** Inject an independent random common cause — the effect should hold. */
+    random_common_cause: BooleanType,
+    /** Re-estimate on random subsamples — the effect should be stable. */
+    data_subset: BooleanType,
+    /** Unobserved-confounder strengths to simulate → the sensitivity / tipping curve. */
+    sensitivity: OptionType(ArrayType(FloatType)),
 });
 // ============================================================================
-// The experiment the user framed — column refs are strings.
+// The config the user edits (= CausalExperimentConfigType)
 // ============================================================================
 /**
- * The experiment the user framed in the set-up rail — the staged value the
- * pickers write and **Run** feeds to the bound `estimate` function.
- *
- * @remarks
- * `treatment` / `outcome` / `confounders` / `categorical` are **column names**
- * introspected from the bound dataset's row struct, so the surface re-frames
- * over whatever columns the data has (the `Table` pattern). The Advanced
- * choices ({@link EstimatorType}, {@link TargetUnitsType}, {@link TrimType}) are
- * variants. `population` is an optional Slice-style predicate set that narrows
- * the rows before estimating.
+ * The experiment the user framed — the staged value the pickers write and
+ * **Apply** feeds to the bound `experiment` function.
  *
- * @property treatment - The column whose change might cause the effect.
- * @property outcome - The column it might move.
- * @property confounders - The backdoor set — columns to adjust for.
- * @property categorical - Which of the confounders hold category codes (one-hot
- *   encoded by the estimator).
- * @property population - Optional row narrowing (AND-ed Slice predicates).
- * @property method - Optional estimator override (default: linear regression).
- * @property targetUnits - Optional population override (default: everyone).
- * @property trim - Optional un-matchable-row trimming (propensity weighting only).
+ * `treatment` / `outcome` / `common_causes` / `categorical` are **column names**
+ * introspected from the bound dataset's row struct (the `Table` pattern). The
+ * `method` / `estimand` advanced choices and the `min_*` guard thresholds are
+ * optional developer-defaulted, user-adjustable knobs.
  */
-export const ExperimentSpecType = StructType({
+export const ExperimentConfigType = StructType({
     treatment: StringType,
     outcome: StringType,
-    confounders: ArrayType(StringType),
-    categorical: ArrayType(StringType),
-    population: OptionType(ArrayType(Slice.Types.Predicate)),
+    common_causes: ArrayType(StringType),
+    categorical: OptionType(ArrayType(StringType)),
     method: OptionType(EstimatorType),
-    targetUnits: OptionType(TargetUnitsType),
-    trim: OptionType(TrimType),
+    estimand: OptionType(TargetUnitsType),
+    refute: OptionType(RefuteSpecType),
+    /** Continuous column for the ALE dose-response curve (the "How much?" view). */
+    dose_feature: OptionType(StringType),
+    min_overlap: OptionType(FloatType),
+    min_treatment_variation: OptionType(FloatType),
+    bootstrap: OptionType(BootstrapConfigType),
+    random_state: OptionType(IntegerType),
 });
 // ============================================================================
-// Shared — a confidence interval.
+// The result the engine returns (= CausalExperimentResultType)
 // ============================================================================
-/**
- * A confidence interval. Structurally identical to the causal library's `ci`,
- * so it unifies by shape across the package boundary.
- *
- * @property lower - Lower bound.
- * @property upper - Upper bound.
- */
-export const CiType = StructType({
-    lower: FloatType,
-    upper: FloatType,
+/** One confounder's before-adjustment imbalance (categoricals → one row per level). */
+export const BalanceRowType = StructType({
+    column: StringType,
+    /** The original confounder this row belongs to — equals `column` for a numeric
+     *  confounder; the base confounder for a one-hot categorical level. */
+    base_column: StringType,
+    treated_mean: FloatType,
+    control_mean: FloatType,
+    std_diff: FloatType,
+});
+/** Positivity / common-support diagnostic (binary treatment). */
+export const OverlapDiagnosticType = StructType({
+    treated_propensity: VectorType(FloatType),
+    control_propensity: VectorType(FloatType),
+    common_support_frac: FloatType,
+    positivity_ok: BooleanType,
+});
+/** The robustness summary the verdict + trust tab consume. */
+export const RefutationType = StructType({
+    /** Effect under a permuted (placebo) treatment — should be ≈ 0. */
+    placebo_effect: OptionType(FloatType),
+    /** Whether the placebo effect vanished. */
+    placebo_passes: OptionType(BooleanType),
+    /** Whether a decoy random common cause left the estimate inside its CI. */
+    random_cc_within_ci: OptionType(BooleanType),
+    /** Mean effect across data subsamples (stability). */
+    data_subset_effect: OptionType(FloatType),
+    /** Std of the effect across data subsamples. */
+    data_subset_std: OptionType(FloatType),
+    /** Closed-form E-value — confounder strength needed to explain the effect away. */
+    robustness_value: OptionType(FloatType),
+    /** Unobserved-confounder sensitivity (tipping) curve: effect at each simulated strength. */
+    sensitivity: OptionType(StructType({
+        strengths: VectorType(FloatType),
+        effects: VectorType(FloatType),
+    })),
+});
+/** A dose-response (ALE) curve of a continuous feature on the outcome. */
+export const DoseResponseType = StructType({
+    feature: StringType,
+    grid: VectorType(FloatType),
+    effect: VectorType(FloatType),
+    lower: OptionType(VectorType(FloatType)),
+    upper: OptionType(VectorType(FloatType)),
+    /** Rows per dose bin — drives the surface's "you are here" (busiest bin) marker. */
+    size: VectorType(IntegerType),
 });
-// ============================================================================
-// What `estimate` returns — causal quantities packaged for the surface.
-// ============================================================================
 /**
- * One confounder's before-adjustment imbalance — the two group means and the
- * standardised difference. The renderer derives the bar width, tone and "6.1 vs
- * 8.0" label from these numbers.
- *
- * @property column - The confounder column.
- * @property treatedMean - Mean of the column in the treated group.
- * @property controlMean - Mean of the column in the control group.
- * @property stdDiff - Standardised mean difference (the imbalance magnitude).
+ * The honesty verdict — a thin tag; the numbers live top-level on the result.
+ * Only `not_estimable` carries a human-readable reason.
  */
-export const BalanceRowType = StructType({
-    column: StringType,
-    treatedMean: FloatType,
-    controlMean: FloatType,
-    stdDiff: FloatType,
+export const ExperimentVerdictType = VariantType({
+    causal: NullType,
+    modest: NullType,
+    adjustment_insufficient: NullType,
+    non_identifiable_positivity: NullType,
+    not_estimable: StringType,
 });
 /**
- * The `estimate` answer — the adjusted (like-for-like) effect, the naive (raw)
- * effect for the sign-flip comparison, the sample accounting, and the
- * confounder balance. Every word and colour on the surface is derived from
- * these numbers.
- *
- * @property effect - The adjusted (like-for-like) effect estimate.
- * @property ci - Optional confidence interval for `effect`.
- * @property naive - The raw (unadjusted) mean difference.
- * @property naiveCi - Optional confidence interval for `naive`.
- * @property nTotal - Rows in the framed population.
- * @property nTreated - Treated rows used.
- * @property nControl - Control rows used.
- * @property nDropped - Rows dropped by trimming / missing data.
- * @property balance - Per-confounder before-adjustment imbalance, most
- *   imbalanced first.
+ * The complete, honest result. `adjusted` is `none` when the engine refuses
+ * (positivity / no-variation); the `verdict` tag carries the headline; every
+ * word/colour on the surface is derived from these numbers.
  */
 export const ExperimentResultType = StructType({
-    effect: FloatType,
-    ci: OptionType(CiType),
     naive: FloatType,
-    naiveCi: OptionType(CiType),
-    nTotal: IntegerType,
-    nTreated: IntegerType,
-    nControl: IntegerType,
-    nDropped: IntegerType,
+    naive_ci: OptionType(CiType),
+    adjusted: OptionType(StructType({ effect: FloatType, ci: OptionType(CiType) })),
+    n_total: IntegerType,
+    n_treated: IntegerType,
+    n_control: IntegerType,
+    n_dropped: IntegerType,
     balance: ArrayType(BalanceRowType),
+    overlap: OverlapDiagnosticType,
+    refutation: OptionType(RefutationType),
+    /** ALE dose-response of `dose_feature` (present when `config.dose_feature` is set). */
+    dose_response: OptionType(DoseResponseType),
+    verdict: ExperimentVerdictType,
 });
 // ============================================================================
-// What `refute` returns — the trust checks.
+// Validation-design contract (= Causal.Types.ExperimentDesign*)
+//
+// `Causal.designValidation(data, config, result, design_config)` turns a finished
+// experiment into the recipe for a REAL controlled trial that would confirm the
+// effect — how many units, the split, and which categories to match the groups
+// on — or, when a plain trial can't be run, what to change so one can. There is
+// ONE design family (a randomised controlled trial); the framing, the size
+// `basis`, and the visuals vary with the verdict. The renderer's "Validate" tab
+// paints it from these numbers (KPI + split meter + match chips + power curve).
+// Mirrors `Causal.Types.*` in east-py-datascience — kept in sync by hand.
 // ============================================================================
 /**
- * Which robustness check a {@link RefuteCheckType} row is. Closed set → variant;
- * the renderer derives the check's name, description and pass/fail from the kind
- * plus the numbers.
- *
- * @property placebo - Fake treatment — the effect should vanish.
- * @property random_common_cause - Inject a random cause — the effect should hold.
- * @property data_subset - Re-estimate on subsets — the effect should be stable.
- * @property unobserved - Simulated hidden confounder — a sensitivity curve.
+ * Why the trial is sized the way it is — set from the verdict, so the tab's
+ * headline + visuals change with the result rather than reading the same twice.
  */
-export const RefuteKindType = VariantType({
-    placebo: NullType,
-    random_common_cause: NullType,
-    data_subset: NullType,
-    unobserved: NullType,
+export const DesignBasisType = VariantType({
+    /** Clear effect → power the trial to detect the *observed* effect. */
+    detect_observed: NullType,
+    /** Fuzzy / maybe-nothing → power to the smallest effect worth acting on. */
+    resolve_vs_null: NullType,
+    /** A trust check failed → randomise to remove the bias adjustment couldn't. */
+    de_bias: NullType,
+    /** No overlap → randomise within the comparable range. */
+    restrict_to_overlap: NullType,
+    /** No control group exists → hold back a random sample next time. */
+    create_control: NullType,
 });
-/**
- * One robustness check — the real refuter numbers. The renderer turns these
- * into the pass/fail row and (for `unobserved`) the sensitivity curve.
- *
- * @property kind - Which check this is ({@link RefuteKindType}).
- * @property estimatedEffect - The original effect being challenged.
- * @property newEffects - Effect(s) under the refutation — one entry for
- *   placebo / random-cause / subset; one per simulated strength for unobserved.
- * @property strengths - For `unobserved` only: the simulated confounder
- *   strengths paired with `newEffects` (the sensitivity-curve x-axis). `none`
- *   for the single-shot checks.
- * @property pValue - Refuter p-value where the check provides one.
- */
-export const RefuteCheckType = StructType({
-    kind: RefuteKindType,
-    estimatedEffect: FloatType,
-    newEffects: VectorType(FloatType),
-    strengths: OptionType(VectorType(FloatType)),
-    pValue: OptionType(FloatType),
+/** One sizing option — a split and the head-count it needs (even split first). */
+export const TrialOptionType = StructType({
+    /** Plain label, e.g. "Even split" / "Treat fewer". */
+    label: StringType,
+    /** Fraction assigned to the treatment (0..1; 0.5 = even). */
+    treated_share: FloatType,
+    n_treated: IntegerType,
+    n_control: IntegerType,
+    n_total: IntegerType,
 });
-/**
- * The `refute` answer — the battery of robustness checks shown in the "Can we
- * trust it?" tab.
- *
- * @property checks - The checks that were run.
- */
-export const RefuteResultType = StructType({
-    checks: ArrayType(RefuteCheckType),
+/** The "chance of detecting it" curve — total head-count → power (0..1). */
+export const PowerCurveType = StructType({
+    n: VectorType(IntegerType),
+    power: VectorType(FloatType),
 });
-// ============================================================================
-// What `dose` returns — the ALE dose-response curve.
-// ============================================================================
 /**
- * A per-segment dose-response sub-curve (e.g. one production line). The grid /
- * effect / CI vectors mirror the top-level {@link DoseResultType} curve shape.
- *
- * @property label - Segment label ("Line A", "Acme", …).
- * @property grid - Feature grid values.
- * @property effect - Centered ALE effect at each grid value.
- * @property lower - Optional lower CI at each grid value.
- * @property upper - Optional upper CI at each grid value.
+ * The validation-trial recipe — a randomised controlled trial sized from the
+ * observed effect (or the materiality threshold) and the outcome spread, with
+ * the groups matched on the confounders that were most imbalanced. Everything
+ * the "Validate" tab paints is derived from these fields.
  */
-export const DoseSegmentType = StructType({
-    label: StringType,
-    grid: VectorType(FloatType),
-    effect: VectorType(FloatType),
-    lower: OptionType(VectorType(FloatType)),
-    upper: OptionType(VectorType(FloatType)),
+export const ExperimentDesignType = StructType({
+    /** The verdict that drove the recommendation (echoed for framing). */
+    verdict: ExperimentVerdictType,
+    basis: DesignBasisType,
+    /** The effect size the trial is powered to detect (observed, or materiality). */
+    target_effect: FloatType,
+    /** Outcome spread (pooled SD) used to size it. */
+    outcome_sd: FloatType,
+    target_power: FloatType,
+    alpha: FloatType,
+    /** Chance the CURRENT sample would already detect `target_effect` (the "you're here" marker); `none` when there's no comparison group. */
+    current_power: OptionType(FloatType),
+    /** Categories both groups must be matched on (the most-imbalanced confounders). */
+    match_on: ArrayType(StringType),
+    /** Ranked split options (even split first; cost-saving alternates). */
+    options: ArrayType(TrialOptionType),
+    /** The detect-chance curve for the chart. */
+    power_curve: PowerCurveType,
+    /** One generated, plain-language sentence framing the recipe. */
+    rationale: StringType,
 });
-/**
- * The `dose` answer — an ALE dose-response curve for a chosen feature, plus the
- * optional per-segment breakdown. The grid / effect / CI / size vectors are
- * structurally identical to the causal library's ALE result.
- *
- * @property feature - The dose feature column.
- * @property grid - Feature grid values (interval edges).
- * @property effect - Centered ALE effect at each grid value (outcome units).
- * @property lower - Optional lower CI at each grid value.
- * @property upper - Optional upper CI at each grid value.
- * @property size - Number of samples in each grid interval.
- * @property segments - Optional per-segment sub-curves ({@link DoseSegmentType}).
- */
-export const DoseResultType = StructType({
-    feature: StringType,
-    grid: VectorType(FloatType),
-    effect: VectorType(FloatType),
-    lower: OptionType(VectorType(FloatType)),
-    upper: OptionType(VectorType(FloatType)),
-    size: VectorType(IntegerType),
-    segments: OptionType(ArrayType(DoseSegmentType)),
+/** Optional knobs `Causal.designValidation` accepts (all developer-defaulted). */
+export const DesignConfigType = StructType({
+    /** Significance level (default 0.05). */
+    alpha: OptionType(FloatType),
+    /** Target chance of detecting the effect (default 0.8). */
+    target_power: OptionType(FloatType),
+    /** Smallest effect worth acting on — sizes the trial to this when set / when there's no trustworthy observed effect. */
+    materiality: OptionType(FloatType),
+    /** Treatment shares to offer as options (default [0.5]). */
+    treated_shares: OptionType(ArrayType(FloatType)),
 });
 // ============================================================================
-// The journal — committed experiments.
+// UI-only types (not part of the engine contract)
 // ============================================================================
 /**
- * A committed experiment in the journal — the framed spec + the headline effect
- * + who committed it when. The renderer derives the verdict words and colour
- * from `effect` / `ci`.
- *
- * @property spec - The experiment that was committed ({@link ExperimentSpecType}).
- * @property effect - The adjusted effect at commit time.
- * @property ci - Optional confidence interval at commit time.
- * @property committedAt - When it was committed.
- * @property committedBy - Who committed it.
+ * The UI-side population filter — a set of {@link Slice} predicates the Step-4
+ * rail edits. It narrows the rows **client-side, before** the `experiment` call,
+ * so it is deliberately **not** a field of {@link ExperimentConfigType} (the
+ * bound function never sees it; the config stays byte-identical to the causal
+ * library's contract). Bound as its own optional staged dataset so a surface can
+ * seed / persist / commit the framing filters.
  */
-export const JournalRowType = StructType({
-    spec: ExperimentSpecType,
-    effect: FloatType,
-    ci: OptionType(CiType),
-    committedAt: DateTimeType,
-    committedBy: StringType,
-});
-/** The journal dataset — committed experiments, newest first. */
-export const JournalType = ArrayType(JournalRowType);
-// ============================================================================
-// Optional per-column metadata.
-// ============================================================================
+export const PopulationType = ArrayType(Slice.Types.Predicate);
 /**
- * Optional per-column metadata the developer supplies once. Lets the derived
- * prose read "worse" instead of "lower" and show friendly labels / units.
- * Keyed by column name.
- *
- * @property label - Friendly display label for the column.
- * @property unit - Unit suffix ("MPa", "$", …).
- * @property higherIsBetter - Whether a larger value is the good direction —
- *   flips "lower" → "worse" in the derived words.
+ * Optional per-column display metadata the developer supplies once. Keyed by
+ * column name. Lets the derived prose read "worse" instead of "lower" and show
+ * friendly labels / units.
  */
 export const ColumnMetaType = DictType(StringType, StructType({
     label: OptionType(StringType),
     unit: OptionType(StringType),
     higherIsBetter: OptionType(BooleanType),
 }));
+/**
+ * A committed experiment in the journal — the framed config + the verdict +
+ * headline effect + who committed it when. The renderer derives the verdict
+ * words and colour from `verdict` / `adjusted`.
+ */
+export const JournalRowType = StructType({
+    config: ExperimentConfigType,
+    verdict: ExperimentVerdictType,
+    naive: FloatType,
+    adjusted: OptionType(FloatType),
+    committed_at: DateTimeType,
+    committed_by: StringType,
+});
+/** The journal dataset — committed experiments, newest first. */
+export const JournalType = ArrayType(JournalRowType);
 //# sourceMappingURL=types.js.map

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