@dragonflymcp/plugin 1.0.0

package/templates/skills/effort-estimation.md.template

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+---
+name: Effort Estimation
+description: Estimate implementation effort using multiple estimation techniques
+version: 1.0.0
+author: Zen Framework
+applies_to:
+  - story-concept
+trigger_keywords:
+  - estimate
+  - effort
+  - time
+  - story points
+  - how long
+  - complexity
+priority: P3
+impact: medium
+---
+
+# Effort Estimation Skill
+
+## Purpose
+
+Enable the Story Concept agent to provide accurate effort estimates using multiple estimation techniques while accounting for uncertainty and risk factors.
+
+## Estimation Framework
+
+### 1. Story Point Scale
+
+```yaml
+fibonacci_scale:
+  1:
+    description: "Trivial"
+    characteristics:
+      - single_file_change
+      - well_understood
+      - no_dependencies
+      - minutes_to_implement
+    examples:
+      - "Fix typo in error message"
+      - "Update configuration value"
+      
+  2:
+    description: "Simple"
+    characteristics:
+      - few_files
+      - clear_approach
+      - minimal_testing
+      - hour_or_less
+    examples:
+      - "Add validation for email field"
+      - "Create simple utility function"
+      
+  3:
+    description: "Small"
+    characteristics:
+      - moderate_complexity
+      - some_unknowns
+      - standard_testing
+      - half_day
+    examples:
+      - "Add new API endpoint"
+      - "Implement form component"
+      
+  5:
+    description: "Medium"
+    characteristics:
+      - multiple_components
+      - integration_required
+      - thorough_testing
+      - full_day
+    examples:
+      - "Add authentication flow"
+      - "Implement search feature"
+      
+  8:
+    description: "Large"
+    characteristics:
+      - complex_logic
+      - multiple_integrations
+      - extensive_testing
+      - multiple_days
+    examples:
+      - "Build payment processing"
+      - "Implement real-time notifications"
+      
+  13:
+    description: "Very Large"
+    characteristics:
+      - high_complexity
+      - significant_unknowns
+      - should_consider_splitting
+      - week_plus
+    examples:
+      - "Major refactoring"
+      - "New feature area"
+    recommendation: "Consider breaking down"
+    
+  21:
+    description: "Epic"
+    characteristics:
+      - too_large_to_estimate
+      - must_be_broken_down
+    action: "Decompose into smaller stories"
+```
+
+### 2. T-Shirt Sizing
+
+```yaml
+tshirt_sizes:
+  XS:
+    story_points: 1
+    ideal_hours: "1-2"
+    description: "Quick fix, single change"
+    
+  S:
+    story_points: 2-3
+    ideal_hours: "2-4"
+    description: "Simple feature, well-defined"
+    
+  M:
+    story_points: 5
+    ideal_hours: "4-8"
+    description: "Standard feature, some complexity"
+    
+  L:
+    story_points: 8
+    ideal_hours: "8-16"
+    description: "Complex feature, multiple components"
+    
+  XL:
+    story_points: 13
+    ideal_hours: "16-32"
+    description: "Large feature, consider splitting"
+    
+  XXL:
+    story_points: 21+
+    ideal_hours: "32+"
+    description: "Too large, must decompose"
+```
+
+### 3. Complexity Factors
+
+```yaml
+complexity_dimensions:
+  technical_complexity:
+    low:
+      indicators: ["CRUD operations", "simple logic", "no integrations"]
+      multiplier: 1.0
+    medium:
+      indicators: ["some algorithms", "few integrations", "moderate state"]
+      multiplier: 1.5
+    high:
+      indicators: ["complex algorithms", "multiple integrations", "distributed"]
+      multiplier: 2.5
+      
+  domain_complexity:
+    low:
+      indicators: ["well-understood domain", "clear requirements"]
+      multiplier: 1.0
+    medium:
+      indicators: ["some domain learning", "some ambiguity"]
+      multiplier: 1.3
+    high:
+      indicators: ["new domain", "complex rules", "regulatory"]
+      multiplier: 2.0
+      
+  uncertainty:
+    low:
+      indicators: ["done before", "clear path", "stable requirements"]
+      multiplier: 1.0
+    medium:
+      indicators: ["some unknowns", "new technology", "evolving requirements"]
+      multiplier: 1.5
+    high:
+      indicators: ["research needed", "new architecture", "fluid requirements"]
+      multiplier: 2.5
+```
+
+### 4. Three-Point Estimation
+
+```yaml
+three_point_estimation:
+  optimistic: "Best case, everything goes perfectly"
+  most_likely: "Normal conditions, typical obstacles"
+  pessimistic: "Worst case, significant problems"
+  
+  calculation:
+    pert: "(O + 4*M + P) / 6"
+    standard_deviation: "(P - O) / 6"
+    
+  example:
+    task: "Implement user registration"
+    optimistic: 4  # hours
+    most_likely: 8
+    pessimistic: 20
+    pert_estimate: 9.3  # (4 + 32 + 20) / 6
+    std_dev: 2.7  # (20 - 4) / 6
+    confidence_range: "7-12 hours (68% confidence)"
+```
+
+### 5. Effort Breakdown Template
+
+```yaml
+effort_breakdown:
+  development:
+    coding: "40%"
+    unit_testing: "20%"
+    integration_testing: "10%"
+    
+  overhead:
+    code_review: "10%"
+    documentation: "5%"
+    deployment: "5%"
+    
+  buffer:
+    standard: "10%"
+    risky: "20%"
+    unknown: "30%"
+
+example_calculation:
+  raw_coding_estimate: 8  # hours
+  with_testing: 12  # 8 * 1.5
+  with_overhead: 14.4  # 12 * 1.2
+  with_buffer: 15.8  # 14.4 * 1.1
+  final_estimate: 16  # rounded
+```
+
+### 6. Risk Adjustment Factors
+
+```yaml
+risk_factors:
+  technology_risk:
+    new_framework: 1.3
+    new_language: 1.5
+    poc_required: 1.8
+    
+  dependency_risk:
+    waiting_on_team: 1.2
+    external_api: 1.3
+    third_party_unknown: 1.5
+    
+  requirement_risk:
+    clear_requirements: 1.0
+    some_ambiguity: 1.2
+    significant_uncertainty: 1.5
+    
+  experience_risk:
+    team_experienced: 1.0
+    moderate_experience: 1.2
+    new_to_domain: 1.5
+```
+
+### 7. Historical Calibration
+
+```yaml
+calibration_approach:
+  track_actual_vs_estimated:
+    - story_id: "US-100"
+      estimated: 5
+      actual: 8
+      ratio: 1.6
+      
+  calculate_velocity:
+    sprint_1: 21
+    sprint_2: 18
+    sprint_3: 24
+    average: 21
+    
+  adjustment_factor:
+    if_consistently_underestimating: "multiply by ratio"
+    if_consistently_overestimating: "divide by ratio"
+    
+  confidence_building:
+    after_3_sprints: "Low confidence"
+    after_6_sprints: "Medium confidence"
+    after_10_sprints: "High confidence"
+```
+
+### 8. Estimation Anti-Patterns
+
+```yaml
+anti_patterns:
+  student_syndrome:
+    description: "Starting late despite buffer"
+    mitigation: "Break into smaller deliverables"
+    
+  parkinsons_law:
+    description: "Work expands to fill time"
+    mitigation: "Aggressive but realistic deadlines"
+    
+  planning_fallacy:
+    description: "Optimistic bias"
+    mitigation: "Use historical data, add buffer"
+    
+  anchoring:
+    description: "First number influences all"
+    mitigation: "Independent estimates, planning poker"
+    
+  scope_creep:
+    description: "Requirements grow mid-sprint"
+    mitigation: "Clear scope, change management"
+```
+
+## Output Format
+
+```yaml
+effort_estimate:
+  story: "US-456"
+  title: "Implement password reset flow"
+  
+  estimates:
+    story_points: 8
+    tshirt_size: "L"
+    
+    three_point:
+      optimistic: 12  # hours
+      most_likely: 20
+      pessimistic: 40
+      pert: 22
+      
+    confidence: "70%"
+    
+  breakdown:
+    tasks:
+      - task: "Design email template"
+        estimate: 2
+      - task: "Implement reset endpoint"
+        estimate: 4
+      - task: "Build UI flow"
+        estimate: 6
+      - task: "Add security measures"
+        estimate: 3
+      - task: "Write tests"
+        estimate: 4
+      - task: "Documentation"
+        estimate: 1
+    subtotal: 20
+    
+  adjustments:
+    risk_multiplier: 1.2
+    reason: "First time using email service"
+    adjusted_estimate: 24
+    
+  recommendation:
+    sprint_fit: "Fits in single sprint"
+    dependencies: ["Email service credentials needed"]
+    risks:
+      - "Email deliverability testing"
+      - "Security review required"
+```